2024 Byron Nelson DFS Tactics

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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 CJ cup Byron Nelson DFS tactic show we got a lot to get into going to look at the updated weather forecast the up to the second weather forecast the ownership projections of course my rankings everything you need to finalize and optimize your lineups for this week’s Byron Nelson so let’s not waste any time let’s get right into it all statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national. it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money there are a lot of great golf analytic tools out there no doubt about that I simply believe fantasy National is the best uh it’s it gives you all of the power that you need at your fingertips prior leaderboards uh rolling models lineup generator everything that you need to figure out who the best plays are every week on the PJ tour so go check out fantasy national.com you won’t regret it in the descrip destion to the video there are links to all of the social media first off my ex and Instagram where earlier this week I posted some research around the prior three champions of the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch to players three years um and I do that every week looking at some course statistics winter patterns the players who fit the criteria based on the patterns that I find so if you want to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a a follow over at your preferred social media site X is also where I place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest that I play that comes out every Wednesday night after calls calls in the DFS tactics show so that’ll come out later this evening so if you want to see my weekly Bing cards and the players that I’m using most often in my lineups for DFS give me a follow over at X lastly for social media gabes Handles in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe uh it’s a great way to start your week week of preparation and he continues to update you throughout the week with his own version of recent form course history and if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us every Wednesday evening after Call’s calls as he is gracious enough to host me over there and we continue the DFS talk uh we talk about Game Theory our scary Fades any 6K or 5K plays no 5Ks is this week but any low price plays that we like uh you know players that we are pivoting to off the chalk so you don’t want to miss out on that conversation the only way you’re going to be able to do that and join us is if you are a subscriber to his article it is free to do by the way lastly we’re live chat is open want to hear from you all who is your winner this week for the Byron Nelson would love to hear uh and get your input on the poll question which I will put out after the intro uh who are you fading away from pivoting to all that good stuff so let’s figure out our strategies and our tactics for the 2024 CJ cup Byron Nelson and we start over at the updated or up to the 2 wind forecast for mckin Texas and TBC Craig Ranch so give me a second as I clean off these glasses I will post the poll question here very very simple I have been working on my lineups um for the past maybe hour or two and I it got me thinking how with where the chalk is on the uh price board and all of that how are uh our fellow contestants playing this week so the question what style of lineups are you building this week and of course I only have four options so entirely or almost entirely stars and scrubs mostly stars and scrubs mostly balanced or entirely balanced so would love to he uh have your all’s feedback on that as we go through the evening of course I will give you my answer as well as my oneand done selection uh and other things throughout the evening looking at the forecast the super forecast for mckin Texas looks like a little bit of rain is going to be at the tournament at some point throughout the week as of right now it looks like Thursday night into Friday morning as you see here but if we look at specifically Thursday looks like a lot of wind in the morning and then it dies off in the afternoon generally you would expect the wind to pick up in the afternoon but but at least per forecast it looks like the wind could die down uh tomorrow afternoon and then on Friday a lot of rain in the forecast early dries out and then the wind picks up throughout the day as you would expect with this forecast I would give the slight Edge a slight Edge to the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. particularly if they get some delays on Friday morning which looks like could be the case if they Endo if they indeed get 3/4 of an inch uh in an hour I can only go by what the forecast has I would give a very slight Edge very slight to maybe uh slight Edge to the Thursday PM Friday a.m wave I haven’t really factored that into my lineups however um um the one thing that is pretty darn consistent throughout the forecast is that players are going to have to deal with some wind and some pretty strong gusts um especially tomorrow morning gusting above 20 M an hour uh late on Friday looking like they could get gusts above 20 Friday morning could be up in the 30s and gusts so it looks like wind is going to be a factor no matter what half of the draw a play has this week and if we zoom out taking a look at the weekend again a lot of wind early on Saturday and then tapering off it looks like and then Sunday looks like a wash almost um so we’ll be interesting to see how the tournament decides to handle that um but for our purposes trying to get six of six lineups through uh in the cut portion I not going to factor in it Factor it too much but uh I would give a slight Edge to the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m. portion of the draw um I’m going to keep that up just in case others ask about it throughout this evening but we’ll move to Fantasy National and do a couple of quick reviews here we just did the uh forecast so one thing that we feel pretty confident with is that there’s going to be wind throughout the the week especially during the cut portion of the tournament on Thursday and Friday so in moderate and windy conditions in the past two years our top performers have been Jordan SP Adam Scott Harry Hall Ben on sunj Carson young Andrew Novak Adam shank Mark hubard and Sam Stevens those are your top 10 in terms of win performance so definitely give these players a boost in your considerations um as it looks like wind is going to be a definite Factor uh in being play for the majority of the week good evening p uh thanks for stopping in the chat hopefully all is well in your world I don’t know what kind of craziness is going on in Chicago but it seems like uh a lot of things are happening around the around the country but uh glad to see you this evening uh and see you in chat hopefully you’re ready for the Byron Nelson uh and after a week off at least for me we’re going to get back into uh some winning ways here um if we continue on down look taking a look at uh maybe the top 20 or so or 15 to 20 in terms of wind performance continuing on Dylan woo my Michael Kim Nate Lashley Peter Quest [ __ ] Taran Aaron R J Day Taylor Montgomery Justin Su so these are the players who have played the best in the wind in the past couple of years all is good by me playing Brickyard next week uh As Nice uh that is one of the one of one of the um bucket list courses for me in Indiana since I am in the uh the southern portion of Indiana I haven’t haven’t made up made it up to there and I haven’t made it to Purgatory yet I’ve got friends that have played both so uh we’re going to be working on working on Crossing off some bucket list uh courses here fairly soon that’s awesome glad to hear it glad to things glad to hear things are going well uh as well for those who have not heard will zuris has withdrawn Wills alour has withdrawn so there are four players three players sorry I don’t know why fantasy National does not have mac Meisner it’s it he is listed as mcclear Meisner and so his stats aren’t in here which is very strange because he’s played tournaments but uh in addition to Charlie Hoffman and Patrick Rogers not playing that was from earlier in the week from Monday night to to tonight one more field change has happened will zorus is not playing so if you have submitted lineups with Wills Al torus you need to change that he has withdrawn all right at the other end of the spectrum the players who have not played well in the wind the past couple of years Nick Watney Kevin kizner Zing do or Marty doe Carl Yuan Max McGreevy Ryan brim Tom hogi not played well in the wind um surprising especially since uh um he is one of the tournament favorites but I mean you see uh when gets very windy he has not been at his best he generally likes calm conditions so be aware of that Harrison indicot teret sink Camille vas Matty Schmid on down there are there are your list of players who have not played well in the wind in the past couple of years but the overarching thing that we know about TPC Craig Ranch especially if we get the rain that is in the forecast uh it’s going to be soft it’s going to be receptive which means it’s going to play extremely easy and it has been extremely easy um the first three years that we’ve seen it winning scores were 26 25 and 23 under just Birdie’s Galore here so in the past two years in rounds that have been easy relative to par our top performers have been Alex noren Ben Griffin Peter Quest Taylor pendri Bo Hustler Chan Kim Adam shank Doug gim Luke list and Michael Kim continuing on down so I mean especially give those 10 a pretty decent boost in your considerations continuing on down Davis Thompson Stephan joerger Jordan spe sunjay minwu Lee chessen Hadley Jimmy Stanger Jason Dave Rio hits atsun yeah that’s about as far as I can go uh without swiveling completely out of the out of the frame uh so give these 20 or so a pretty considerable boost in your um in your considerations or as you’re finalizing your lineups as the one thing we know about TPC Craig Ranch it has been easy is going to be easy especially with that forecast so you want to Target players who have played the best when rounds have been easy the other end of the spectrum conversely players who have not played well when it’s been easy Kevin kizner Nick Watney Sun Kang sneaker McGreevy Breen Roger Sloan rul perita Tyson Alexander G gusi trainer Davis Riley all of these in the 6K play so you know not a whole lot of surprise here trying to find some others that might be of note Andrew Novak has not played well when it’s easy uh whoops that is not what I meant to click I wanted his player page you see he’s been actually slightly less than field average uh when it’s easy he’s done his best work when it’s average and difficult so make a note of that uh some others around here Sammy valaki CT pan uh Jake knp has not played particularly well when it’s been easy olison Parker Cy so give these players a downgrade in your considerations to to tonight as they have not played well when rounds have been easy relative to part good evening Darnell thanks for jumping in chat uh it’s good to see you this week haven’t seen you in a while after the week off rested and recharged at least on my end hopefully we are going to build some momentum building into the PGA Championship uh but don’t want to overlook the tournaments leading up to it so let’s try to build some momentum this week get on the winning ways for the byr Nelson good to see you this evening um so with that we are going to go to the mixed condition model I just wanted to to give you an overview of the players who have been best in the wind especially the best when it’s been easy as those players are going to rise in my rankings when we as you’ll see as we go through my mixed condition model So speaking of that the model that I have built for the Byron Nelson and TPC Craig Ranch this week I’ve talked all week how it is a ball striking course this can get to be a putting contest because of how easy the course is but to get to the putting you have to ball strike it well you have to hit your hit your t- shot well maybe not necessarily you know distance although I do have a little bit of that in there but just off the te and general and especially your iron so 10% in off the tea win rounds are easy relative to par you could have looked at long courses as well but uh this course this place is so forgiving that I just wanted to see who the best players off the tea were uh when rounds are easy relative to to par not necessarily Fairway is easy to hit because players are missing the Fairway enough that it is actually classified as average to hit um and players just don’t care about being in the rough it is not penalizing for them to be in the rough there’s not a lot of trouble um on the on the course especially in the off the te so 10% off the te when in Easy relative par 20% approach just again emphasizing the ball striking and there will be more ball striking as we go through here 5% putting on average and fast bent greens um it was a mistake last year on my part I looked at all bit and I know for a fact that these aren’t going to play lightning speed and so I wanted to make sure I did not include those rounds from the Masters even though we don’t get the putting detail from that still it’s it’s good practice to ex uh exclude that data you know get rid of the memorial uh those are always lightning speed bent greens the John Deere has had some lightning speed bent greens you know every once in a while another course we’ll have a round or two with lightning speed greens these won’t play Lightning so we’re just looking at average and fast bent greens and I only put it at 5% again the emphasis is on the ball striking this week but this can get it this can turn into a putting contest so you don’t want to ignore the putting uh particularly the players that are Spike Putters um but I I I’m more so focused on the ball striking this week 5% in driving distance when scoring is relative easy to par I think I’m going I know I’m going to prefer the distance players over the the plotters or the accuracy based players but I didn’t want that to be the only players that I consider you know the cam champ for example the cam Champs uh the minwu Le these players with extreme distance because we’ve seen the guys with accuracy play well here um so I didn’t want to overload it with distance that’s why I went mainly with off the te I did want to give a slight boost to the players who have more distance especially with the rain I I don’t think this course is going to have as much roll out I don’t think it’s going to be as firm it’s going to be pretty soft so get a little bit more um with your driving distance is going to be a little just a little bit more important this week I think hey good evening Bruce good to see you in chat haven’t seen you in a while um after the week off last week for me rested recharged and we’re going to try to build some momentum this week have a winning winning week with the Byron Nelson as we lead into uh the the PGA Championship so it’s good to see you in chat this evening um 5% driving distance 5% opportunities gained and when scoring is easy relative to par you can see just how much I have put that easy relative to par filter in here opportunities distance off the te birdies are better when we talk about that we just know that TBC Craig Ranch is very very easy so let’s figure out the players that are the best when on easy courses or an easy rounds you could absolutely um make an argument to increase this percentage I just kind of ran out of percent here because I wanted to emphasize the ball striking the birdies and the par lives as we’ll talk about so only 5% in here uh if I would not argue if you wanted to put 10% with your own mix condition model but 5% opportunities gained when easy relative to par 20% birdies are better gained when rounds are easy look you just got to go low here again winning scores at the Bayern or at TPC Craig Ranch 26 25 and 23 under you got to go low Bogies will happen there are a couple holes that can get pretty tough but you’ve got to be able to take advantage of the power fives and those very short par fours great scoring opportunities gotta got to get birdies in bunches So 20% birdies are better gained when rounds are easy relative to par little bit um a little bit of a I can’t say it’s it’s my angle this week because there’s so many approach shots that come from 200 plus but this is me not necessarily going with the data cuz the data was a little bit suspect on showing if 200 plus proximity led to Upper leaderboard success I am more going going with the just the sheer amount of approach shots that come from here 35% of our approach shots at TBC Craig Ranch sorry there you go 35 5% come from 200 plus so as opposed to really trusting the data and it being a little bit um a little bit skeptical of how important 200 plus procs is just the sheer volume of shots that come from this range I wanted to make sure I uh emphasize that or put that in the mixed condition model if anything this could probably drop down to 5% so you know in between opportunities gained and proc 200 and maybe par 4S you know some of this percentage can get um can get switched around and moved around if you will but I did want to have a little bit of 200 plus proximity in here I put it at 10% especially because I don’t think there’s going to be as much rollout this week due to all the rain in the forecast so I think some some uh or more approach shots will come from 200 plus rounding out the mix mixed condition model 5% in power fours 5% in 450 to 500 par 4S we saw especially Monday night how this is the most important range but we don’t want to ignore all the others because there is a there are two drivable par 4S here some short ones there’s a a 500 plus par 4 so we didn’t want to just look at this range but we did want to see who is the best at this range it might give us a a leg up on who to Target so 5% all power fours 5% in this length of power fours lastly 15% in par five scoring you just got to go low on these par fives uh birdies will gain you some shots on the field uh but sometimes you got to get some Eagles on these because they play to more than a half a shot under par and that uh contribut to the ease of TPC Craig Ranch so you got to take advantage of the power fivs there’s a look at the mixed conditioner model this week hopefully I’ve given you an idea on some areas where I might be weak or where you can move some of this percentage around if around the green matters I’m going to be dead cold to that I am just not factoring that in at all if putting matters a little bit more I’m going to be a little bit weak to that since I only have it at 5% again I’ve just really really emphasized the ball striking I’ve emphasized uh who goes low when it’s easy and I’ve emphasized the par fivs so there’s a look at the mixed condition model we’ll move to Microsoft Excel the reveal of my rankings and again as a reminder for those of you who um who are uh returning viewers or for those of you who are new viewers pardon me as I get this all set for the reveal of my rankings my rankings are based on three criteria the first first is the fgc rank this is a a pure number from fantasy National spits out based on the mixed condition model that that we just went over the metrics and the percentages in them course value is an attempt at giving a player a numerical value on how well they have played that course The Last 5 Years in this case the last three years because it’s only been seen three years lower the number the better um and then we are playing DFS so projected ownership comes in into my rankings of course the less owned a player is the better so there’s a look at or or a an explanation on how my rankings are built I do not factor in uh tea times or or perceived half of the draw favors um I do that on my own on the outside and that or you know off stream and that’s why we go over windfinder at the beginning of the show my rankings go as such Peter Quest is my number one ranked player by the analytics I don’t I I would not make him my number one player overall but I do not have an issue with him being pretty high up the issue is he’s got a fairly small sample size so be aware of that but the sample size that he does have especially when on or in Easy rounds has been spectacular and we’ll talk about that here in a second so by by the rankings Peter Quest is number one I don’t think I would make him number one overall but I would certainly put him in my top 10 maybe even top five Tom hogi second Keith Mitchell third Ben on and Luke list right out my top five you see Luke list is getting helped quite a bit by his uniqueness per fantasy National Doug gim Alex noren Kevin Yu Jordan Speed and Adam Scott round out my top 10 so let’s talk about Peter quest uh he’s going to be pretty chalky I would think uh oh before I forget um Gabe reached out to me looks like his Source did not do ownership projections this week so we’re going to rely completely on fantasy National so I do not have gabes sources um ownerships uh for this week so if fantasy National is off um we’ll have to adjust uh but we’re going to be going strictly by this this evening Peter Quest members of fantasy National are are paying attention to him using him quite a bit uh I imagine the general public will be as well probably for good reason I mean again I mentioned he’s got a fairly small sample size but the the sample size that he does have especially when rounds have been easy he is the number one player birdies are better gained when it’s easy he’s number three off the te when it’s been easy he’s actually put average and fast bent greens pretty well second and distance when it’s easy he’s just demolished easy courses uh his best performances the rocket mortgage I believe it was either that or The Travelers last year he played well he played extremely well at the John Deere I believe he did fairly well at the Windom all of the those places those tournaments are pretty easy year in and year round so he’s done his best work when rounds have been easy and that is why he is vaulting I mean just skyrocketing in the rankings because he is performing so very well on these easy rounds but his small sample size in 2024 hasn’t been bad either he uh I the VIS Vision will be skewed but I’m going to have to do this for for my own sake because I know he’s played a couple of times I just don’t remember what exactly his results were uh so top 10 the corales top 10 the Valero and the Valero was difficult so he’s actually gotten you know better with that uh in that regard but if we take a look at Peter Quest again I mean he’s played his best when it’s easy uh he’s put you know okay on B H the issue the issue with him I’ll un or I’ll change the page view or whatever real quick he hasn’t played the best in the wind again small sample size just I’m putting it out there very small sample size but the rounds that he has played in the wind are W very windy hasn’t been good so if you if if you’re wanting a reason to fading it that would be it everything analytically lines up that says Peter Quest should play pretty well this week he’s in really good form in 20124 based on this two PGA tournaments I haven’t I don’t know what he’s done on the corn faery tour I just pay attention to the PGA Tour but I just want I want to reemphasize it’s a small sample size but the small sample size that we have has been pretty darn good he’s going to be pretty chalky would be my guess uh kids good to like him this week too I mean I have nothing wrong with him I love the player this week I hate the ownership if he was indeed 15% I think I’d be okay using him a fair amount I have my suspicions he might creep up closer to the High Teens you know say this 18% range I have my suspicions and if that’s the case that’s a very it’s very very hard to justify using him especially because there’s several players around his price that I like at much less ownership and he’s been bouncing back and forth on the corn fairy tour and PJ tour for a reason he has not stuck on the PGA tour yet this does sound or this does seem like it would be a good fit for him so we’ll see he did top 15 this last year but it’s he’s very very ch uh Tom hogi getting a lot of love as well the issue with Tom hogy is his lack of distance and the off the tea game granted he doesn’t have a lot of trouble he can get into we’ve talked about that so everything else lines up great for him he’s the number one iron player here he goes you know plenty low when it’s easy he takes care of par fivs he’s Elite at least for this field in 200 plus proximity there’s a lot to like with Tom hogi and even the putter on bent greens is not bad I I don’t know he look at least per fantasy National he’s the most projected own player I don’t know I I can’t say it’s a full fate I’m sure I’ll have him a little bit but there’s others in the 9ks that I like uh Mitchell I usually talk about when it’s difficult but he’s gotten better or he’s played better or more well-rounded so um of course with only 5% putting like these ball Strikers like Luke list and Doug gim are going to uh rise quite a bit considering there’s only 5% in the putting really like Kevin youu but there’s a look at my rankings I just wanted to highlight particularly Peter Quest highlight maybe Mitchell and Tom hogi all right enough of that let’s sort on the price board figure out where our fellow contestants are are going and perhaps some players that we can pivot to off of the chalk so in the 10ks we now only have two players thanks to Wills alur’s withdrawal Jordan spe and Jason day 109 and 104 and with no 5K plays or you know 5K prices you can put a decent uh amount of greed in your lineups um at least I think so because I really like the lower sevens as we’ll talk about but you know we don’t have the Scotty shefflers and the John ROMs these 13 and 12ks this week Jordan speed’s the highest at 109 so you can you can squeeze in a little bit more in your lineups this week I like both players um in the 10ks seen Quest between 10 and 12% in some other spots we shall see if he’s 10 to 12% I’m fine with that I would I would find fire him up you know I wouldn’t say I would go overboard with it cuz there are several players in the mid to low sevens that I like so um to use the financial analysts term you know diversify your portfolio um I don’t think I would go all in on Peter Quest but um if it’s 10 to 12% I would be much more keen to use him uh in the 10ks like I don’t know about spe’s wrist uh supposedly it flared up at the her RBC Heritage granted he always plays that course well um he always he’s played TBC Craig ranchwell it depends on how risk averse you are with the wrist um because everything analytically lines up pretty well for him the irons have been great but this is Texas he’s he’s loves playing here top five and birdies are better gained when it’s easy um it’s all depending on how risk averse you are Jason day’s fine not in love with it but it’s fine I would much rather drop into the nines if I’m going to use Jason day so for me Jordan spe is a pretty clear one in the 10ks to Jason days number two but I’m quite okay not going into the 10ks this week especially if I’m if I’m worried about spe wrist I’m quite okay not going to the 10ks So speaking speak of several players in the nines this week not going to go through each one individually uh or at least list them out you can see them there the lowest rating actually is Tom Kim he’s played very very well here this does feel like a good Tom fit Tom Kim fit considering it’s easy but he has tended to struggle on longer courses and you see that with the off the tea here and the distance well the distance the number is off the screen but um shaded deep red Tom cim you think about his winds Windom very short course the uh Shriners out TBC Summerland it’s a pretty short course I think it’s just over 7200 yards he has not played the best on Long courses so I have I have reason to be quite hesitant on Tom Kim he has played well here probably because it’s easy and that’s generally uh when he’s at his best when it’s easy but I’m not in love with Tom Kim this week I talked about Tom hogi I I I just don’t like I don’t like the ownership the off the te can be worry some although there’s not a lot of trouble here in the 9ks I love Adam Scott I he’s going to be popular this is chalk I’ll eat I really really like Adam Scott this week seu Kim is more chalk um I’m okay with it a little bit less in terms of of um excited to use seiw as opposed to Adam Scott um I think I would use sewo over Tom hogy though um even they’re roughly the same in percentage or projected ownerships I think I would use sewo before Tom hogi I think I’m not crazy about either one because of all the ownership sunj I’ve tried to back plenty of times it it’s just not worked and then when I’m off of him he finally topped 20s or whatever he did um in the Florida swing I don’t know um he’s just so checkl and hide I don’t know what to do with sunjay 8% on a very talented player like this is hard to pass up but I just I don’t know um norn okay again one of these players like SEIU and hogi is going to be very very popular so I might be less inclined to go there especially because I love Adam Scott so much and he’s only a 100 more in price um Ben on should be really good this week probably pretty popular but I do like a quite a bit of B on and I like Stephan joerger as well so in the in the nine case I’ll be going to Adam Scott didn’t mean to highlight sunj sorry I’ll be going to idam Scott Ben on Stephan joerger I’ll dabble in Min W Le a time or two but look he’s played this course once it does theoretically feel like a very good fit for him and he was really bad he was really really bad on it now it’s only one time sure he could have had a bad week it happens he does take advantage of pars which you have to do but I think a lot of it could be about the putter he just he has not been good on bent and this is similar across all bent for minw Lee so I would be I don’t mind using him but I’m going to be very wary of it and try to limit my use of him talked about Tom Kim I think I hit everybody now so yeah seo’s fine just chalky norin probably fine just chalky of the three big chalky plays in the 9ks at least you know in the ones that are pushing 18% I would go SEIU then hogi probably and then norin of those three but give me Scott benon and joerger in the 9ks particularly Adam Scott just really like Adam Scott this week moving into the eights um Adam shank I want to highlight the irons have not been very good in 2024 but he’s played okay here he goes low when it’s really easy he really likes bent as you can see he really likes bent uh gives himself plenty of opportunities to put that putter to work on bent so I do like Adam shank I normally Target Keith Mitchell when it’s difficult but man he’s played much better even when it’s been easy so now granted you know he’s been good for 54 holes and then collapses on Sunday or Saturday one time but it’s probably fine he’s going to be popular just like the others above hogi and and SEIU and whatnot it’s probably fine but you know I’m I’m much more inclined to go to shank um mcney should be okay I like mcne he’s the number one putter on bent in this in this field don’t overlook the the two-time champ champon here KH Lee like he had terrible form coming into his win in 2022 and he won there’s just something about this course that he that’s you know suits his eye he just loves it here so don’t ignore KH Lee you could take a look at Mat Hughes as well talking about that putter with Adam shank I mean the guy is a very good putter on bent but I’m I’m not as confident in mck Hughes I know some people have kind of thrown his name out there I’m not terribly confident in that hubard he’s going to be pretty pretty widely owned you know in the anywhere between that 12 to 15% area I would guess it’s fine it’s fine uh fills out your balance lineups pretty well the one player I don’t particularly want to use and even though his rating was really good Aaron Ry generally struggles on these longer courses and uh if you played the corales if you played Puerto Rico you know that he was an easy fade for me and he missed the cut I know he missed the cut at the corales I don’t remember what he did at Puerto Rico he just doesn’t play a long course as well you can see that in this course value he hasn’t been particularly good here fantasy National doesn’t seem to be on him don’t get uh don’t get sucked into the Aaron Ry trap I’m not I can’t say I won’t useing because I haven’t finalized my lineups yet but he does struggle on longer courses which is which is really odd considering he’s top 10 and 200 plus proximity and he gives himself plenty of opportunities when it’s easy but a lot of it has to do the fact that he just lacks a lot of distance he’s not the best putter in the world you see here with bent it’s fairly mediocre to perhaps even a little sketchy par five he’s not the greatest at so don’t get don’t fall into the Aaron R trap I can’t call it a full fade but this is this is a player that I’m not going to be anywhere near you know that 10% again in the eights I I really like Adam shank I’ll probably dabble in a little bit of Keith Mitchell it’s just very very I kind of like MAV mcne as well and I’m definitely going to use KH Le a time or two he’s he is he is the champion twice here in the three years moving into the upper sevens speaking of players who play this course well with no form Sheamus power you see this course value he’s played exceptionally well here there’s something about this course that brings out the best in Sheamus power I mean you see the 2024 metrics and and particularly when it’s easy like it’s not been good I mean he was 17th per fantasy National just purely by the Numbers he has not been good lately this is a play on the course value or his course history he is really excelled at TBC Craig Ranch so I did want to mention that you might be worth looking um um you’ll have to stomach a bad putter but again with all the emphasis on ball striking it’s no surprise that luk list and Doug gim are really rising in my rankings um I probably I would probably prefer list of these two one because of the ownership two because list has some distance and if there’s a tiebreaker I’m going with the distance player as opposed to the accuracy player so give me list out of those two but I think Doug gim’s fine um but if I’m getting comparable players you know good ball Strikers that are atrocious on the greens give me the player that is half the ownership so give me Luke list of those two B Hustler is okay I guess even though he’s a Texas native like he hasn’t played well here either so be aware of that uh the irons haven’t been good in 2024 but he loves bent so if you’re you know going with the Adam shank and the Mackenzie Hughes you definitely want to take a look at B Hustler Chan Kim R out very very well I can’t say I know a lot about Chan Kim but at least per the um per the metrics he rates out very well second birdies are better gained when it’s easy takes advantage of power FES enough sure 9% so so he’s not exactly unique but okay moving into the mid sevs Peter Quest again however you feel about Peter Quest I like the player I don’t like the ownership if he’s indeed 10 to 12% as Bruce mentioned kind of like that I you know I’d be much more keen to that I have my suspicions he’s going to be closer to the 15 to 18% but the reason why I’m not you know all in on Peter Quest there’s plenty of players at his same price that I like let’s start with Kevin Yu love Kevin Yu this week bro the iron play is fine number two in off the te when it’s easy takes advantage of par fives as well Elite with 200 plus proximity at least Elite compared to or in relation to this field just like Luke list just like Doug gim the Putter’s been pretty bad on bent but you you know I only have it at 5% I’m relying on the ball striking so give me players like Luke list and Kevin Yu this week I don’t think Kevin Yu is going to be 10% truly I think he’ll be less owned so I really like Kevin Yu Justin low another player he’s getting a whole lot more attention uh than Kevin U had a same price but I like him as well very good irons goes low when it’s easy third in putting on bent Justin Low’s issue has been off the tea and with the lack of trouble that is here at TBC Craig Ranch I think this fit in just understand he is going to be pretty popular at least per fantasy National and then the other guy that’s at 7500 as well Sam Stevens I like Sam Stevens a lot anytime we’re talking about long courses and most recently it’s been at the Caribbean events the corales Mexico Puerto Rico anytime where we’ve been talking about um long courses Sam Stevens has really popped he’s only at 5% he’s played this event he’s played it fairly you know fairly fine the irons have been great sure but we don’t get the statistics from the corales in the Puerto Rico so I have my suspicions that this number is actually a little bit better you see the part fives great can’t call it Elite but great off the tea wonderful again another one of these players where you’re just going to bank on a on a a decent putting week plenty of distance so I like Sam Stevens as well Novak okay um little popular but okay I suppose um somebody mentioned Burger earlier this week I just I haven’t seen enough from him to fully believe he is he’s all back and off of that wrist injury the back injury I just I just don’t see it I want continued sustained success before I start investing in Daniel Burger so I’m just off but he is he had he did top five this event the one time he played it Garrick higgo rid out very very well for me as we move down into the low sevens uh higo rid it out extremely well for me I do have my suspicions he has not been the best when it’s easy and he’s not been the best in the wind so take that take it with a little bit of grain of salt the irons aren’t great I know he it says second when it’s U easy relative to par but he has not been the best when it’s been easy so I’m I’m sure I’ll using but I’m not as high as that 13th would suggest somebody to maybe think about is Taylor Montgomery anytime it’s easy he does generally play well and he’s a very good putter so if you’re going on that putting narrative or you know playing guys like shank McKenzie Hughes Bo hostler you want to think about Taylor Montgomery uh moving into the lowest of low sevens um I’ve talked about him all week like I love Ryan Palmer this week I am surprised he’s only at 5 a half% dude just plays easy courses so well yes the irons aren’t great but he he’s actually pretty good off the tea especially when it’s easy gets plenty of birdies takes advantage of the power fives gives himself plenty of opportunities I really like Ryan Palmer this week and you see he is lit this place up uh he’s three for three average finish of 20th he really likes TBC Craig Ranch so I’m going to be extremely overweight if Ryan Palmer does not play well I will lose I really like me some Ryan Palmer this week I also want to mention sh Kim um the irons are better than what it’s showing here but you talk about another player that does well when it’s easy 10th birdies are better gained off the te he’s been good bent he putts well so I do like shkim and he’s getting ignored so I think he could be um silently a a a stalwart for your lineups so there’s a look at the sevens and because we only have a couple of 10ks and I’ve been comfortable not coming up here I really don’t have much for you in the in the six Cas cuz I don’t think you need to go there this week however if you are going to play some 6ks if you are playing stars and scrubs there are a couple players I would like to mention for you all the first is Johnny Vegas anytime it’s long uh anytime ball striking matters you’re going to think about you got to think about Johnny Vegas so be on the lookout for Johnny Vegas you just have to just like Luke list and Doug G you got a stomach a bad putter but top 15 in irons top 25 or close to it in par fives so I do want to mention him not in love with it but I do want to mention him cuz he does really play long courses pretty well moving down into 6700 R Rico Hoy uh somebody that uh really popped uh in terms of the mixed condition model top 25 in irons top 15 on par fives I like Rico Hoy quite a bit now granted when I say I like him doesn’t mean I’m rushing to use him again I don’t think you have to go into the 6ks if you don’t want to but if you are Rico ho is somebody that I would Target uh I really like what I’m seeing here from Rico Hoy the only issue would be I think he needs to clean up the 200 plus proximity um he doesn’t have any data on Fast and average B greens so kind of a kind of a toss up there he’s got plenty of distance and right off straight off your screen so plenty of distance giv your plenty of opportunities to at least you know make a few par fives he’s very good at at taking advantage of so really look at Rico Hoy in the 6ks the other player in the 6ks Carson young um played this event very very well the one time he’s played it very good with the irons fourth I’m not going to scroll over but fourth in Opportunities when it’s easy fine gives himself you know plenty of looks converts him decent amount enough I don’t know if I would have him in my top 20 but Carson young rided out extremely well you see he was actually 20th per fantasy National he’s rising in the overall thanks to a very good course value and low ownership so those three players in the Six GS Carson young Rico hoi and Johnny Vegas if you are going to be making some stars and scrubs line lups all right with that we’ve been going for quite a while and I still got lineups to make for you all so for those who plays tear contests let’s cover that real quick and then we’ll we’ll start making some classic lineups in tiers we only have two players Jordan Speed Jason day I’m GNA take Jordan spe uh I’m not in love with either of these if I could skip this tier I would but you got to pick somebody I’ll pick Jordan Speed hopefully the wrist is healthy um it’s what I got I just I’m more confident in spe than day cuz both of these have some concerns I think tier two we have SEIU sunj Adam Scott Alex norin and mwu Lee I think SEIU is fine I think norin is fine but give me Adam Scott I’ll take Adam Scott I just really really like Adam Scott this week tier three Ben on joerger hogi Tom Kim and Keith Mitchell uh for me I think I’m going to take joer bent on could be another interesting choice I think it’s between these two with hogy a pretty clear third to me but I’ll take Jagger um one Ben on two uh tier four uh diet the first yeah dietre M Hughes Adam shank KH Lee mcne and hubard if you’re a big believer in course history you got to go with KH Lee I’m gonna go with Adam shank I think he’s going to be unique enough off of khle in a tear contest I can gain some you gain some leverage on my opponents if I’m playing tiar with an Adam shank MCN is also fine I think but give me Adam shank tier five Aaron rright nap Thomas Sheamus power luk list B Hustler and Doug gim just like KH Lee if you’re a big believer in the course history you got to go with Sheamus power otherwise I’m probably going to go with Luke list here based on the ownership that I think he’s going to be pretty unique uh it’s all about the ball striking Doug gim is also fine I think but you see the course value list has played this event better than Doug gim in the past so give me Luke list in tier five finally tier six Ben Griffin Ryan Fox Justin low Taylor pendrith Andrew Novak Taylor Montgomery Max graser uh low is probably going to be the chalk of the tier if you think you have enough uniqueness it’s probably Justin low um I mentioned Montgomery he could be interesting graser’s not bad either but I’ll probably take what I feel is the quote safe option in tier six and I’ll take Justin low so this tier construction goes spe Adam Scott Stefan joerger tier four is Adam shank tier five is Luke list and tier six is Justin low all right let’s move to Classic lineups start building some of these chalky lineups that uh we think are going to be pretty popular in these big gpps and see how we can maneuver ourselves around them so if we’re going to build a chalky lineup and again all I can do is go by the ownerships what fantasy National has projected I would have to imagine Jordan speed’s going to be a little bit higher than this but maybe perhaps per U our fellow contestants are still scared off with the wrist I don’t know with that the case we’re going to start with a sewo Kim and a Tom hogi this very well could be Alex norn as well but I’m just saving them a little bit of money because nobody really in the 6ks is garnering much attention Vegas is at 7% Ryan Moore is at 75% that’s about it really nobody in the 6ks is getting targeted so I’m going to try to keep our fellow contestants off of the 6ks if I can which means at the very bottom per fantasy National you got Maddie Schmid at 10% getting some use looks like Novak at 7,400 Justin low at 75 which is also Peter Quest so uh let’s throw in Maddie Schmid in this and then um yeah let’s let’s do the combination of the two um 7500s Justin low and Peter quest which leaves them 8,900 um Tom Kim it’s all it’s 100 off of Tom Kim Kim he’s getting a little bit but Keith Mitchell at least per fantasy National getting a lot of use or key Mitchell apparently if I could type so it’s leaving 100 on the table but you’re at a 15% projected ownership here you’re going to be duplicated quite a bit with this lineup I think and again I like Peter Quest I like Justin low um so you know there’s no problem in using these players but you’re not going to be able to use them in combination with each other you’re going to have to find some uniqueness elsewhere um and again it doesn’t appear that the stars and scrubs lineup is getting used so that’s one way we can build some leverage and I’ll try to do that um let’s try to build uh perhaps maybe a a more super ultra balanced is lineup I guess we’ll go with like norin um again Keith Mitchell Shank would probably be in this you got Mark [Music] hubard actually we could MTH mcne getting some some attention as well M mcne and Mark hubard yeah 7700 per is the the combination of of quest and low again but just to U throw in some other names who are getting some some use here’s here’s a look at perhaps a an ultra balanced look um and it’s still leaving 500 on the table so they could come off of Novak if if somebody’s thinking maybe Doug gim or maybe they mooved Mitchell up to Tom hogi again like these Ultra Balance lineups seem to what seem to be what our fellow contestants are playing um so how are we going to maneuver off of that I’m going to be honest with you I’ve been building a lot of balance lineups so let’s try to build a stars and scrubs here um and I’m going to probably take a different approach on a stars and scrubs build than uh what you might think CU again I’m not I’m not forcing myself into the 10ks like I still have a little bit of reservation about Jordan spe and his wrist so instead of going into the 10ks I’m GNA load up in the nines I mentioned I’m not it’s not a whole lot of ownership but I love Adam Scott this week so I’m gonna Scott start oh my goodness start this lineup with Adam Scott and I’m just going to load up in here I go Adam Scott and Ben on and Stephan Jagger I’m gonna I’m going to build my stars and scrubs this way putting you know two nines and maybe an eight that I like or three nines in here because I did give you a couple of 6K plays that I um that I like Johnny Vegas is going to be one of the more popular 6K plays so instead of Johnny Vegas you could drop down to Rico Hoy 67 Carson young at at 65 I think I’m going to go with Rico Hoy in this example and we’re still left in the mid sevens here and that’s why I don’t think you have to go into the into the sixks if you don’t want to but we have 7600 per player you actually could get a a low eight if you wanted maybe you like a MAV McNeely uh maybe you like a KH Lee um let’s see I’m going to throw Luke list into this just because of how unique he is only at 5 a half% per fantasy National and that leaves us with 7,400 um you know if you want to come off 100 more and go with Peter Quest or Kevin U that’s fine but you got plenty of options down here I I mentioned tlor Montgomery plays really well when it’s when it’s easy um let’s see you know Ryan Palmer sh Kim I’m gonna throw sh Kim into this one because I’m Gonna Save Ryan Palmer for for the other lineup that I’ve been building but there’s a variation of a stars and scrub lineup I’m going to call it the Stars minus you know the stars in one scrub lineup um you know I’ve been just kind of putting my weight all into the nines up here if I’m doing a lot of stars and scrubs and you see 10% more than likely you’re looking at a unique lineup here more than likely with Rico hoey sh Kim especially luk list even if you combine you know these big three hitters you’re still looking at probably a unique lineup or duplicated very little in your big gpps but the lineups that I’ve been building the most have been pretty balanced and it all revolves around bottoming out at Ryan Palmer again I just don’t think you have to go into the 6ks if you don’t want to with the fact that we only have two 10ks in the highest is 10 n I’m going to throw Peter Quest into this one into this lineup cuz I like Peter Quest and I’m hoping that he is indeed that 10 to 12% that you mentioned Bruce as opposed to the 14 or even higher that I think he’s probably going to be I used Adam Scott in the the other example you know go whoever put use whoever you want here maybe it’s Adam Scott maybe you’re not afraid of a sunjay that would really give you a lot of uniqueness again I’m going to go with Adam Scott cuz I’m very very confident in Adam Scott this week but from here like you can go Ben on you can go Stephen jger you can take a a really more balanced approach you go like Adam shank um Again Luke list maybe Sheamus power if you’re a big believer on uh course history like if we go Sheamus power you’re you’re left with 9400 which is minw Lee which is fine I’m not in love with it but it’s it’s fine Stephan joerger yeah I mean in fact started out the same way Stephanie Jagger instead of going with um hogy or on you drop down to shank go power or list this one’s a little bit more chalky just because Sheamus power is getting you know upwards of 10% and we’re using Peter Quest who’s getting a lot of love on fantasy National but Ryan Palmer’s pretty unique and you can move all this around you know if you want to get pretty darn unique this is a straight substitute SE Uh Kevin Yu brings that down quite a bit you want to get real unique and go Sam Stevens 4 and a half% now you’re starting to get into unique territory so that’s what I have for you all I’ll stick around for a couple minutes if anyone has any questions or you want uh you want to look at at a particular player or maybe a shell of a lineup but I got some I got some questions to answer of my own here types of lineups that I’ve been building looks like the majority of the community has said mostly balanced I’m in agreement I’ve been building mostly balanced lineups having said that if you are willing to do a stars and scrubs lineup if you are willing to drop into the 6ks maybe even twice you’re going to be ultra unique this week and you’re going to gain a lot of Leverage on your on our fellow contestants if you’re willing to do that so hopefully I’ve given you a couple of solid 6K plays if you’re wanting to go that route so mostly I’m uh I’m I’m in agreement with the community or at least i’ I’ve been doing the same thing as the community been building mostly balance lineups one and done uh I have thought very very hard about one and done this week because this tournament just feels like a tossup uh any strong feelings on the weather I honestly hey Gabe thanks for jumping and CH uh reminder to everybody who’s watching if you haven’t subscribed to gab’s article go do that um because if you’re subscriber you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat after the show this evening as um as him and I continue the DFS talk over there we have a lot of good discussion over in his chat I’m very thankful for Gabe for allowing me in there um any strong feelings on the weather I’m kind of like you at least the last thing that I saw you post I don’t I don’t know if you’ve updated uh from an hour and a half or two hours ago I would give a slight uh favor to the Thursday p.m. Friday a.m wave but really I’m just making sure guys are pretty good in the wind cuz wind is going to be a constant Factor throughout the week um so I’m I’m pretty much in agreement with you and I don’t have terribly strong feelings one way or the other um especially when you get rain like the forecast and the the possibility of delays you know when you’re trying to play that half of the draw Lottery can get pretty difficult so I’m just going to make sure I the players that I use are are competent in the wind um so as of right now and I I am opening or I’m leaving myself open to change here as of right now my oneandone pick is indeed Adam Scott I have thought I’ve even thought about Jason day because he’s played well here I’ve thought about joerger I’ve thought about Adam shank I’ve thought about uh I even thought about Peter Quest so I’m I’m pretty undecided on my one and done but as of right now Adam Scott is my selection so we if if that that changes I’ll I’ll update you next week um and then if Adam Scott plays well and I and hopefully I keep it then then we’ll see but there is a look at um the lineups that I’ve been building I one and done and all that if there’s no other questions I’m going to be signing off here and then jumping into gabes chat so again make sure you’re you are subscribed to his article his social media social social media handle my goodness I can’t talk is in the description uh if you need uh directions on how to get there uh go follow that and then his um article is posted on social media so thanks to P Darnell Bruce and Gabe for jumping in chat thanks to everybody else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing it’s very much appreciated love what I do taking an in-depth look at sport statistics trying to help us all win a little bit of money in the process we are going to try and build some momentum uh as we inch closer to the PGA Championship so for all the Wagers you’ve made this week for the Byron Nelson for all of the DFS contests you play this week for the Byron Nelson for this weekend and every weekend may all your bets be profitable