2025 Rocket Classic Betting Preview

Get ready for an in-depth golf betting preview of The Rocket Classic! We break down the top players, course analysis, key stats, and value picks to help you make informed betting decisions. Discover the latest odds, expert predictions, and one and done picks for this elevated event. 

Topics Covered:
    •    Detroit Golf Club course overview
    •    Key stats for success at the course 
    •    Top bets and placement markets 
    •    Betting strategies and best odds

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this is Longot Vison’s premier golf betting podcast here’s Matt Brown Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin long shots golf betting podcast here on the B and Podcast Network matt Brown Kelly Bidlin coming to you for the Rocket Classic don’t you call it the Rocket Mortgage Classic it’s the Rocket Classic oh boy you know oh boy did that mess with my head already today too late so too too late too late for the column up at bon.com oh oh is it Wes the uh man did I have to did I have to do a full deep dive on this because we are not uh it’s not rare obviously on the PGA tour for sponsorships to change and I was like “Oh this must be the halfass like Rocket Mortgage pulled out they don’t have a new sponsor yet so we’re just going to like keep this bland name.” But no no everybody it is the Rocket parent company that is rebranding themselves so I hate that I know this much about this to tell you but I uh due to graphics purposes this morning Wes I had to I had to figure this all out well remember this was the uh this was the Quick and Loans of course uh many years ago when they used to have that in DC which uh the former name of Rocket Mortgage now headquartered in Detroit of course Dan Gilbert the owner of the Cleveland Cavaliers uh runs this company so uh uh yet another change uh it’ll always be Rocket Mortgage to me I guess okay there we go you may call you may know it as Myanmar but it’ still be Burma to me like uh Jay Peterman says in Seinfeld well we’ll figure out Yeah what this is you know what their new company is all about i’m sure down the line here there’s going to be commercials or something you know that’s a good point and hopefully not nearly as dramatic as the Travelers Insurance commercials uh that we got to see all last weekend my god travelers pipe it down a little bit it’s incredible yes we call it Secret Service don’t worry sir like they’re on the way like to help you out with whatever insurance issues you have like I’m I’m sure whoever calls Travelers Insurance you’ll get straight access to the Secret Service guaranteed well uh let’s go ahead and and and put a bow on that event and Wes we have said this uh before here on this podcast it is very hard to get an outright home so we don’t really care how it happens and the fact that it happened on the person that I have declared the biggest loser on the PGA Tour uh collapsing on hole number 18 to get you an outright home just makes it that much more sweeter everybody listening out there if you continue to bet Tommy Fleetwood you deserve what you get from here on out like I I’m just telling you you deserve it i don’t feel sorry for you it is what it is this guy is just a loser top 10 Tommy bet the top 10’s all day top 10 Tommy don’t you keep betting those outrights i don’t feel sorry for i had people tweeting at me going like “You’ve got to be kidding me how did this happen again?” I’m like “What do you mean how’d it happen again it’s Tommy Fleetwood what do you mean of course it happened again with Tommy Fleetwood.” But Wes it doesn’t matter it gets Keegan Bradley home and that money still hits your account all the same so we’re all going to line up and bet Tommy Fleetwood at Royal Port Rush right in in in a few weeks you you know that’s going to happen with with at least some uh I’m trying to resist the urge but yeah uh Keegan had Keegan Bradley and Russell Henley up there all day henley really kind of tentative I thought on the back nine it’s like he was playing like he had a two- shot lead it’s like boss you got to go and get it man lock up that Ryder Cup spot by the way he moves up to fourth in the points so Henley would be on the team today but uh uh Captain America might have to pick himself as player America for the RDER Cup with Keegan Bradley uh made that 64-footer on the ninth to kind of stay in the mix i think they were all tied going to the back nine fleetwood Bradley and Henley then Fleetwood got a two-shot lead then Bradley I believe on number 15 on that short par4 he ends up making about a 38footer so he cuts the lead to one and just stiffed it on 18 just absolute great wedge to six feet and made it and the crowd was with him of course because he’s originally from the state of Vermont he is a New England guy so he’s a Boston sports fan through and through so they were all rooting him on he won this event a couple years ago ran away from Chz Revy at the end and then this time he comes in the back door so look Keegan Bradley and he got asked by by Amanda Bionis of CBS you know are you gonna pick yourself he was just like go USA it’s like he’s got to pick himself for the RDER Cup team are there 12 better American golfers right now than Keegan Bradley i don’t think so i got to thinking about it too and and it’s one of those deals where if he if he plays himself on to this team it just seems like he has at this point i mean do you just I know you don’t want to but do you just recuse yourself with the being the the the captain and just like you know because like what do you how do you pick that you’re gonna play and not play you know it’s just Come on up Tiger come on exactly it just gets all it just gets so so so sticky so I don’t I don’t know i mean Kelly you don’t you don’t ever want to pass up being able to be the RDER Cup captain but I mean at the same time it it was already a little wonky and now the way that he has played and what he has done makes it incredibly wonky i think it’s fine captain in play what the captain’s doing that much i mean he’s setting the he’s setting the matchups in the lineups like the day before it’s not like he’s doing that much besides that that is the whole thing what do you mean that’s what that’s the whole damn I like it’s not like it takes 12 hours a day for the captain to fre figure that stuff out like he’s he’ll be fine he’ll be fine doing that and play i I think Keegan should absolutely do both and and just to clear something up I did say on the pod last week I reserved the right to add Keegan Bradley of course I added Keegan Bradley once so Wes had that number that he showed me the only point I made last week was don’t bet him at 25 to one but if you did I guess you I bet you’re pretty happy still today by the way what you did mention though Keegan Bradley does have his vice captains already set that being Jim Furick Web Simpson Brent Sneder or Kevin Kisner those guys can take over the reigns put your old asses to work a little bit more i ain’t doing anything out there yeah i mean it’s just you know the setting of the lineup becomes weird now the whole like it’s just it’s all it’s all weird like it’s just it’s all weird now when you’re a part of it you know so well okay so I’ll answer it more seriously even though I do think he could do both uh I would much rather see at this point I’d rather see him play over captain cuz I like you guys I don’t really think I don’t think there’s that many better American golfers uh than him right now he should be left off that team it’s like Jim Furick’s going to be a captain eventually anyway with what he accomplished in his career let him do it yeah yeah i’m I am I am team I am team new captain if Keegan plays because I actually want Keegan to play like we said I think that he is definitely one of the 12 best dudes out there right now but don’t have the weight of trying to figure out well do I put myself in the lineup or do I not or do I play myself with this person or not or whatever it’s like man that just adds a whole bunch of nonsense that doesn’t need to be hand that over like you said Wes to any of those other guys who would be perfectly fine at this they are all been around forever know the game very very well okay so we move on to Detroit here again the the Rocket Classic it is a scoring fest birdief fest course it is not very long not very tough no penal rough the whole nine yards here Wes so it is the it is the ultimate kind of like grip it rip it and and see who can put it closest and and hopefully make some birdies here so it’ll be it’ll be interesting uh from my standpoint to see what you guys emphasize or didn’t here because I made a model that I think is just very very one-sided on all of this but I think that’s how I want to bet this tournament but uh tell us a little bit more about what these dudes are going to see there yeah Donald Ross design all the way back in 1916 does have the backto-front slopes like a lot of his greens do on various courses that they play on the tour uh uh par 72 7370 it is treelined uh like you said Matt not a lot of hazards there’s a mixture of different cuts of rough i think the biggest one is four 4 in thick blue grass but they can chop it out of there this has not affected these guys necessarily uh 35 yards on average out of the fairways they’re bent POA the Greens are also bent POA 50/50 mix smaller side about a little bit over 5,000 square ft 12 on the st PJ tour average so not a lot of hazards here there’s like 87 bunkers and the big hitters can can carry them very easily and there’s just one water hazard by the way here at Detroit Golf Club 14th hole it is a combination of two courses but the South Course only has one hole on this course the first hole which will function as the tournament’s third hole and there’s a little bit of rerouting just look at the scorecard that’s included uh there at bon.com front N is played a little bit easier than the back nine historically because it’s about a 100 yards shorter if you’re looking for any comp courses the other Midwest courses TPC Deer Run where you have the John Deere Classic TPC Twin Cities where you have the 3M Open Sedgefield where you have the Windham couple of those Canadian Open courses in recent years too the one we just saw a couple weeks ago TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley Oakdale those are some ones uh I have uh in my uh in my uh write up at von.com which just got posted every hole there’s a fly over the ABC affiliate in Detroit channel 7 actually provides a fly over hole by hole so I always like to put those now in the columns so you could kind of see okay the layout you know because it’s it’s really weird to like look at a scorecard or look at a a sheet that just says okay these are what the greens are like you know this actually shows it so we do that uh uh it is going to be a little bit cooler weather by the way in Detroit this week uh they’re 97 the first two days of this week so they’ve had a heat wave all up and down the east and the Midwest it’s actually warmer in Detroit than it is in Las Vegas uh as we record on a Tuesday uh temperatures are going to cool it’s still going to be really humid but Thursday and Friday you’re probably going to get some rain i think there’s an 80% chance so you’re going to get some rain some stray thunderstorms so we’ll see how long that postpones the activity but is going to be nice and humid there as you would expect in the summer in the Midwest and Kelly uh as we look at the odds board here we know coming out of a major and then an elevated event it is going to be a little bit of a downfield though better than we’ve seen uh in recent years but Colin Morawa at the top Patrick Canley Keegan Bradley Ben Griffin Cam Young Hideki and then it’s going to be a bunch of the the mid-tier guys that we have been talking about um you know here on the podcast for a very long time so the upper upper tier guys not there outside of Moriawa and Kantlay and with the field being as down and Keegan playing like he has his odds have plummeted ben Griffin one of the better and more consistent players on tour here for the last few months his odds are way down at numbers we’d never thought we’d ever see next to to Ben Griffin so it is an interesting way of navigating this this week because we talk about this often Mr bidlin which is the the courses is what really separates these dudes and when we get these courses that people can light up I’m not going to say anybody in this field can win i think that is hyperbole but what I will say is there are maybe 25% more players that we honestly can talk ourselves into thinking can win this than any any given normal week and and maybe that number is is closer to 40 or 50% more because again these are all the best golfers in the world and if the course is easy they can all just go absolutely destroy it yeah yeah absolutely this is always the uh um you know kind of the warning with the with the birdiefest events if you’re going to get into that at least for me it’s always dial dial back how many and how much money I’m putting into finishing position markets and matchups and stuff like that because the variance that can come into play with guys going low uh for a round or two or more um can can really get wonky with that stuff so it’s a lot of uh play some outrights cover it with some top fives and call it a day pretty much for me and that’s uh that’s how I approach these birdie fests they they are you you just hope to throw throw it throw a dart and throw the right one right have a lander the right spot yeah that is uh I’m not going to say it’s a it’s a spray and prey type situation for me this week but it is certainly a more outright than normal i have one top 10 bet on a guy and then that’s it right so it’s um it’s a little bit different for me than it normally is for sure um I also think it’s just easy like to to look past the top of the board i don’t I don’t know where you guys started at but I mean Morawa just not in form right now kelay is interesting i think he’d be the most interesting to me near the top but not enough to get on board with that you already mentioned Ben Griffin’s number just not being anywhere close to where we’ve kind of seen him usually you know usually after his entire career keegan Bradley i mean under 20 to one is pretty wild so I I it was it was pretty easy for me to head down right to the middle of the board this is a Yeah this is the history of this event we’ve only had six years it moved here to Detroit in 2019 it was previously the Quick and Loans National that was in DC as we mentioned earlier but you’ve seen Long Shots win here i think the inaugural event Nate Lashley was 250 to1 cam Davis when he won here for the first time in 2021 150 to1 but you’ve also seen Bryson at seven to one Fen at 14 to1 Ricky Fowler at 14 to1 when he beat Colin Morawa and Adam Hadwin in that playoff two years ago so long hitters uh you know tend to fl have tended to flourish here i think uh Taylor Pendriff and Cameron Young were runners up to now in 2022 they’re both big hitters minu Lee was part of that tie for second behind Cam Davis last year so you know bigger hitters have historically done so but that doesn’t mean like it’s not all big hitters like almost anybody any style of player I think can win like when Matt when you’re saying anyone can win well maybe not anyone can win but any style of player can win you can win hitting dead eyee approaches here just like you can win bombing and gouging it just like you can win putting the lights out so there’s a lot of various styles that can win on this golf course i um I emphasized driving distance par five scoring birdie or better percentage and opportunities gained i went basically just a heavy scoring model um this week i think that approach while definitely important and I will not say that it is not important but if the rough isn’t all that penal and the greens are small as it is and all of that like I mean I think it’s it’s going to come down to who hits it down there the furthest who has the shortest iron and then that’s going to be the biggest difference here not necessarily who is uh who’s really playing their irons all that great right now so I didn’t use approach as much as I normally do in any given week so that’s kind of for me opportunities opportunities plus like just a little bit more of a separator there which is inside of 10 ft as opposed to inside of 15 feet birdie or better gained driving distance score uh strokes gained on uh on par fives and then the uh couple little tiebreaker things there just like strokes gained on easy courses wanted to see who’s who’s done well on these easy courses on these uh ones that you can really get after and then just you know overall weighted strokes gain total against the field in this course um see who see who’s been just kind of getting it done out there a little bit kelly did I go different than you did you go heavy scoring did you emphasize approach maybe more than I did uh I’m going to guess I emp emphasized approach a little bit more than you but it was it’s a very heavy scoring model you basically rattled off everything that I included off the tea driving distance yes approach yes I worked I did factor in some of the shorter proximity uh ranges just because we do expect to see a lot of short irons and wedges here um for these guys this week but it’s opportunities gain birdie or better par five scoring th those three I emphasized very heavily uh for this week and I did add in I did add in some putting stuff just overall strokes gain putting we do have the blend on the greens like Wes talked about um and then you know putting within uh within 10 feet uh punched in there and then easy easy uh courses like you mentioned Matt i I this is you know this often ends up being a a bit of a putting contest so just wanted to at least have that factored in at least a bit yeah one of the things I do want to point out and we’ll get Wes uh Wes what you put in your model here is if you use any of the sites that we um that we talk about on here just remember that the more factors that you put in the sometimes the fewer rounds that you’re going to be able to get results from and so I just want to point that out for sure because if you go in and you know let’s just our friends over at Bets who have a a fantastic stat collection over there and models that you can build however if you start going crazy on stuff which is like okay scoring conditions easy driver heavy like less penal rough this that and there like you add all these factors and you get it out whatever you’re going to end up getting to a point where like guys only have four rounds like like or or like eight rounds statcast stuff and things like that you literally have to almost bring it out to like two years worth of data in order to even get someone that has like a 20 or 30 round sample size or something so just remember that as you’re going in and and and I don’t say that I’m not saying don’t do that but I’m just saying realize that it’s going to spit out data where you have a very very small sample size for the vast majority of these dudes because there just aren’t a whole lot of courses out there on tour that have easy conditions driver heavy no penal rough short courses all the different stuff that like it becomes it becomes a very micro sample size here and so it’s almost like batter versus pitcher stats if you do baseball stuff and whatever it’s like it’s like most of it is just such small sample size that it doesn’t matter it’s all noise so um if you want to do that you might need to extend out the range that you’re using here and just more use a a holistic overall approach on these golfers as opposed to as opposed to who’s doing anything recently one thing on that I think that that’s better to do those filters that you’re talking about Matt when it’s like a major championship when when when when you’re really trying to find okay what is the separation here like who can really win a major championship who can really win the US Open who can really win the Masters or any or any other any other major uh I I think you want to be more holistic at a place like this because there’s a lot of guys that are going to shoot low and there’s going to be guys that you’ve never heard of that might be rookies on the tour that don’t have a lot of rounds it’s like who the hell is this guy i’ve never heard of him and then you have to kind of go look it up so I don’t like to do as many of the filters on like general events i only would like to do those for like you know the the real either short small field signature events or major championships and that’s it i think your regular boilerplate PJ tour events or any other events you want to be a little bit more wide ranging in my opinion at least yeah i I only pull up a model to kind of give myself a shot of the holistic stuff but I have to in order to get any sort of sample size that I feel is is good for me I have to back it out 18 months and so if you back it out 18 months again you heard about you hear us talk about all the time guys where guys are playing really really good over their last five or six tournaments maybe not so good over their last 36 tournaments or or 50 tournaments or something so I’m just I’m just looking at maybe what type of golfer might fit this type of course and then I have to go in and do more research and do more digging and all of the stuff like that so yeah I mean it’s a it’s tough to get any sort of sample size unless you’re pulling it out 18 months or so something like that kelly I don’t know if you ever make models that really really dial it in like that but I just I I I’ve had somebody come to me and be like “Oh look at my model.” Blah blah blah i say “Bro did you see that?” Like most of those guys only have like four rounds of of strokes gain data so it’s basically you’re just talking about one tournament’s worth of of data on these people yeah i I think it’s something I think it’s something that as as like you said these sites we use I I can speak personally i’m going to guess that others have run into this as well you’ll learn you you’ll learn I guess the hard way but like you start building these and there’s so much great data to pull off of that you you think oh well this is going to matter it’s going to matter why wouldn’t this matter let me pull in a bit of this pull in a bit of that um but yeah it’s goes back to exactly what you’re saying end up you end up punching in too much stuff and it’s pulling from from tournaments that are too far back um and you know I I do think that this course is um you know kind of unique in in just the sense of just how many how many courses do we talk about uh in the you know on the PGA Tour calendar where it’s like hey it’s short but you’re going to use a driver on almost every hole that’s a par four and par five like that’s I mean usually we’re talking about oh it’s a shorter course you’re going to club down for a little bit here like no it’s it’s driver pretty much everywhere it’s not a par three yeah so interest it’s just you know interesting stuff ne needless to say like to to get all the data but I just wanted to make sure that people are are getting a sample size that makes sense as opposed to like just looking at the stuff and and doing all that okay wes um we we explained what was in ours did you do anything differently with yours kind of a combo of what you guys did maybe the only thing I emphasize a little bit more i did do some of the proximity buckets maybe a little bit more than the general approach stuff that I would usually do and that’s 75 to 100 100 to 125 125 to 150 because this is driver wedgefest is basically what this is uh it’s not that hard around the green here even though the greens are maybe on the smallest side on average I think it it’s not difficult to gain around the green it’s difficult to gain on the greens actually 10th most difficult greens over the last five years uh because you have those back to front slopes and some of these slopes kind of complicate things for the guys or maybe they overthink them uh but 40% of the strokes are gained with the putter so I think you wanted to look with that and I mentioned bent poa it’s about a 50/50 mix here so kind of similar to what you saw I I guess at least somewhat at River Highlands where the poa is not bumpy poa it’s not the west coast poa like at Tory or like at Pebble Beach so it runs pretty smooth 12 on the stamp average speed so I did the same things as you guys in terms of like the general stuff strokes gained easy i did uh I did strokes gained par five just to kind of see okay who’s getting a birdie opportunity every single time and then I did do strokes gain par4 350 to 400 very very small because you do have four of the 10 par4s that are less than 400 yards so you know you’ve got those short ones where they’re not quite drivable but you’re going to have kind of like an awkward wedge yardage so so I think you know there’s a kind of a different way to play though so I definitely wanted to look at that at least a little bit all right Wes having a little bit of internet issues here with Kelly Bidlin so let’s just go ahead and get your plays what did you end up on here for the Rocket Classic yeah I hesitate to give out who I’m starting my card with uh being how he played last week but I’m gonna give him one more chance i’m gonna go Cameron Young 28 to one of course you are yes I can’t I I can’t quit him you have to I can’t quit him i guess he had I would be disappointed if you were not on him this week that would be He had me He had me at hello I guess but he had me at goodbye last week cuz it was goodbye down the leaderboard he was 500 in the first round i was like “Okay here we go.” and then started to really drive the ball very erratically and T-52 finish but you know maybe it was a US Open hangover cuz he was on the periphery of contention uh this is a course that you think Taylor made for him he was second here in 2022 sixth in 2024 had consecutive top four finishes so I don’t think I don’t know if he’s totally back but I don’t think it was totally a fluke either i just think you know bad tournament last week so you that’s one of them things that I think is very hard when you’re a regular golf better week to week is outright is like when to jump on and when to jump off and you don’t always want to jump off after one bad finish so I’m giving Cameron Young uh one more whirl here at 28 to one for uh for for everybody i I pick on Wes obviously just cuz it’s a he we all have our golfers that we’ve played a ton but for what it’s worth he’s no lower than eighth in any version of the models that I ran so I mean he is Yeah he’s he’s he models out so so well for this yeah you would think he he’d drop the ball pretty well here and that he could succeed here i understand it people maybe have a little PTSD batting him but Cameron Young 28 to1 and then another guy I hit on actually in one of the Midwest events last year i think I know we had him at the John Deere Classic uh Davis Thompson at 40 to1 who was a four-way tie here for second here last year behind uh Cam Davis who’s now won this event twice those his only two PGA Tour wins by the way uh second for strokes gained approach third for strokes gained t to green last week but he was only T-25 at the Travelers and why was he T-25 cuz he was 65th out of 67 on the Greens of the guys that continued because there were several withdrawals last week at the Travelers maybe a couple injuries by the way couple hey I just played Oakmont and I’m just burned out on golf so I’m not going to do it anymore so uh Davis Thompson was well down there in terms of the putting but the ball striking was terrific very open course played here well or well here last year i think he can do it again and then a couple others right in that range this one was at 44 to1 this morning uh I went with Windom Clark who has had an eventful last couple of weeks remember he took out the frustrations at Oakmont on the locker room at the US Open and then he kind of apologized last week before the Travelers but kind of didn’t i don’t know some were satisfied some were not but T7 last week uh 64 in the first round 66 in the third round eighth here in 2022 17th in 2019 he’s one of those guys you know wide open golf course where you can just rip it off the tea i think that this is a place where he could play well and you are getting I know that he’s slipped from his peak but you are getting a a relatively recent US Open champion in the mid-40s in a very down field so Windham Clark I think could go well here and then another guy who’s a former US Open champion at least in recent years that maybe starting to turn it around at least a little bit and that’s Matt Fitzpatrick at 45 to1 who made the caddy change back in March he was with Billy Foster all those years they won the US Open together actually at Brookline at the country club three years ago new caddy on the bag daniel Parrot who’s been with a variety of different players uh on the tour but Fitz is starting to improve a little bit he’s made seven of his last eight cuts top 10 at the PGA i think he was T7 last week at the Travelers sense of urgency now for him because we’ve been focusing obviously with Keegan Bradley with Captain America going ahead and winning last week but the European Rder Cup team is trying to take shape as well so Matt Fitzpatrick’s been I think a core guy on that team and right now it maybe be on the outside looking in so Matt Fitzpatrick at 45 to one and then my longer price guys I had three of them one guy that just kept popping up and stat after stat was Ameiliano Gillow at 80 to1 uh who had a really tough start this year seemingly has found something four straight top 25s made nine of his last 10 cuts he was the only player in this field by the way that was in the top 15 for all the wedge proximity buckets the 75 to 100 to 100 to 125 125 to 150 has played well in these Midwest swing events before was second and third respectively at the 3M Open over the last few years in Minneapolis second at the John Deere in 2022 so Ameiliano Gillow uh could could be very sneaky here you worry a little bit about his putter but man that iron play is terrific and it usually is for the Argentine and yeah I ended up on him Wes so but yeah both of us will be on him for sure and it’s I mean I I mean lit up the model for me and I had to go in and dig to figure out why that was the case but like man these easy courses specifically his birdie or his birdie or better percentage and birdie or better gain and opportunities gain which again like at least you’re giving yourself the chance to make these birdies and all this stuff like that i mean he is inside the top 10 in every single one of those categories and so hey listen I don’t know if he’s going to make the putts or not but if he’s giving himself 15footers and giving himself 10footers all the time like I’ll take that right and so especially at the price there for for go so I’m also on go there yeah and this was another guy too uh one when I talk about like the correlated courses uh I remember uh he won this was a long time ago he beat Kevin Na in a playoff Silverado where they have the uh the uh I don’t know what it is the Fortnet or it’s a even a new sponsor it was the Fry Open i forget even the new sponsor it’s the one in Napa basically at Silverado silverado’s got a little bit of a crossover for guys that have won there guys that have played well there that have played well in this event historically so another thing maybe to mention for Gillow and then I did have to go with some kind of bomber i’ve got a couple bombers already in the lineup a little bit with Clark and with uh with Cameron Young but uh this guy an absolute bomber he’s making his first appearance here so triple digits 105 to1 jesper Stenson the Swede second in the field for driving distance and strokes gained par five third for birdie or better of what I had fourth in strokes gained off the tee he’s made 11 of 15 cuts in his rookie season on the PJ tour for just the one top 10 at the Sony to open now he was T18 in Canada uh a couple weeks ago his best results since big hitter off the tee i think he should really like this course uh so Jper Sensson 105 to1 i’ll go ahead and just go again there wes uh I landed on I landed on him as well one one of the things I did was just go in and sort by driving distance alone and then see the guys that also are in the green in par five scoring in birdie or better percentage in opportunities gained and all of that and when I do that Spencson really jumped out of of not only the short-term model but the long-term model as well which I thought was really interesting you do have to go in you got to dig a little bit guys with some of these people but you look and it’s like birdie your better percentage inside the top 20 fourth overall in strokes gain on par five the driving distance obviously there he’s averaging 319 off the tee but you know opportunities gained he’s inside of that as well and so it’s a dude that hits it long giving himself chances to to make the birdies now Wes is he going to make the birdies whatever we’ll figure you know we’ll figure that out but you get a triple digit guy that if he can run hot with the putter for for four rounds or hell three rounds and then you know we can we can monetize the ticket so yeah I have Spencson as well before I get to the last one a couple guys that were last minute leave off for me michael Chore Borson by the way is back he had that wrist issue but he’s been back there working in Detroit his caddy now is JJ Jackovac who used to be Morawa’s old caddy so you know he was kind of established Gaddy with a major championship player bagging or linking up with Cure Borson so obviously I think that’s at least a sign of this guy’s potential talent so he was a guy that was a late leave off for me uh Harry Hall and I believe we’ll get to him momentarily was also a consideration uh if you want to go ahead and jump in actually on that one yeah Harry Hall uh the shortest odds on mine on my card this week at 35 to1 i had no idea I was gonna end up on Harry Hall and then the dude’s just like destroying the model and I had to go in and like start to really dig through all of these stats and it’s like Wes if it wasn’t for what did I if it wasn’t for driving distance so heavily weighted for me this week he might have been third second or third i It’s just because he I mean he’s 60th in this field in driving distance so that kind of pushed him down to seventh eighth ninthish where he’s at in these versions of the deal but like if he was a little bit longer off the tea he might have been as high as third or fourth for me but it’s every other thing is like not just green but bright green i mean like and he’s a and he’s a hell of a putter too so like you know if if we believe that somebody who actually is a good putter can run hot on these greens it shouldn’t be too tricky um he’s a hell of a putter you know one of the better putters in this one as well so yeah Harry Hall had no idea I was going to end up on Harry Hall and then here we are every uh professional win he just has the three right now but every professional win he has in the Midwest including last summer remember he won the uh what used to be the Barbasaw but is now the Isco Championship at Keen Trace down there in Kentucky so similar type course yeah to shoot 2200 to win the thing you’re probably going to have to be around the same here so uh Harry Harry Hall is going to be a placement guy for me yeah maybe maybe I’ll add on an outright but I certainly will have him top 20 uh last last outright I have uh uh Lee Hodges 110 to1 best finish of 2025 ninth at the RBC Canadian Open a couple weeks ago missed several weeks with that rib injury but slowly returning to form he actually started 2025 really well top 10 at the Sony top 10 at the Farmers Insurance at Tory Pines doesn’t have great form here in Detroit i think his best finish is in like the 40s here of like three appearances but remember two years ago he won the 3M open in the Twin Cities by seven shots so he’s capable of going low I think in these like birdiefest in in the Midwest and TPC Twin Cities has a lot of similarities I think to uh what we see at Detroit Golf Club like I mentioned the correlated courses DPC Deer Run for John Deere so uh you know definitely I think you get some carryover with guys that have played well in multiple of those events yeah so like we said Harry Hall for me the next guy on the card I I’m going back to Luke Clanton you know you talk about the guys that we’ve bet a decent amount hadn’t really paid off he’s certainly one for me wes he’s third se he’s third fourth and let me put that third he’s third fourth and sixth in in the three different models that I ran i mean you just go in you see he makes a ton of birdies he crushes easy courses like he gives himself opportunities to make these he’s inside the top 30 in par five scoring which we like we know he’s long off the tea there’s just not a lot of pedigree here yet for Clanton but that’s not to say that we can’t see him rattle off a win here right against a weaker field and and certainly a course that I think fits his skill set very very well so I don’t love the number right it’s like 40 on Clanton but I mean if we’re going strictly off of the skill set that I emphasized this week for this he’s ahead of a whole bunch of other people you know as far as that so it just I I kind of had to play it’s kind of a horse racing term where where you you’ll hear the term on these telecast dropping class and that’s kind of what this is i I think maybe for Luke Clinton because now all of a sudden you know he missed the cut at the RBC but that was a better field and that was a headline by Rory Mroy and a few other major champions he’s T34 in a signature event at the Travelers that I think he might have got in on a sponsor exemption but uh yeah like you know he’s just getting used to still playing on the tour here because now he’s a full-time member of the PGA Tour this isn’t you know hey you play these fall series events you play the RSM or you play the Windham or the John Deere and and by the way he’s went in top five in all three of those events and I think a similar quality field here so I’m not mad at Luke Clinton regardless of the number i’m not mad at it i think he could play well here in what is a drop in quality of the field uh a guy that I know you and I have played a couple different times i think Kelly has placement marketed him but another just I’m hoping that the field has him back to where he was let’s call it a couple months ago but Ryan Gerard at 55 to1 another guy that again just across the board here for the stuff that I emphasized this week he was just really really good at every single one of those things that I was looking at and so hoping he can get a little bit of that form back that we saw when we were betting him a ton there Wes but like we said maybe it’s this kind of okay change of scenery lesser field birdief fest deal get out there get your swing under you and and get going but a dude that uh again uh really really uh really really fit the bill for me this week we mentioned Go uh we mentioned Spinson the only other guy that I have currently on the outright here which will make number six for me this week is Jake Knap um again guys just you look at Knap and it’s fourth in fifth in this model like whatever and you go in you see why i mean you know why he’s he he hits it a mile he’s really good at making birdies now the problem with him is some of this other stuff but Wes like I’m not really worried about some of the other things this week because if you’re just not if you’re not hitting it long if you’re not making birdies you’re not going to win anyway so I don’t really care what the other stats are kind of saying to me and I know that sounds ridiculous when we’re talking about golf yes you got to be good at all the stuff but I mean let’s just put it this way if you’re missing greens you ain’t going to win right if you’re like if you’re you know if you’re like if you’re if you’re not long this week and spraying it then you’re probably not going to win like the guys are need to be long if they’re going to spray it all these different things so for me I kind of just cared about those few things that I mentioned earlier that I put in the model and and Jake Knap really just smokes all of those and so see if I can catch him on an up week the numbers so long on him it’s at 80 so I mean again a guy that we know can compete we’ve seen him at the top of leaderboards Wes he just is seems to always kind of have that one bad round kind of we talk about with some of these other guys and I don’t know maybe you can put everything together get it done you talk about some of your late your last leave offs for me a patia was was very tempting to me certainly a guy that I wanted to play look I’m playing first round leader on Keith Mitchell but I’m not going back to the well on an outright but I mean he is he’s number one in one of the versions of my model like he’s ahead of Colin Morcala and everyone you know like everything else um but Keith Mitchell I just can’t do it again i can’t take that ride with Keith Mitchell i just can’t can’t do it but I am gonna play him in a first round leader the uh one top 10 bet that I made which required some um research from me in my last 20 round model Wes a guy popped up in eighth named Antoine Rosner rosner rosner I don’t know how to say his I don’t I think I think it’s Rosnire because he’s French so you got to have a little stank on that name there at the end but uh yeah yeah Antoine I I’ I’ve played him a couple times on the DP World Tour and and he’s gotten home for me didn’t cutter a few years ago but I understand what you’re saying with him yeah it’s like so I go in and I just went and looked at the stat profile and it kind of same thing I was talking about with NAP right where it’s like okay T13 for him at the Byron Nelson he was like negative 1.04 around the green again I don’t care about around the green this way if you’re not hitting the fair like if you’re off of the greens then you’re not going to win anyway so like I I I don’t care about that he’s T he was T24 at the at the RBC gained across the board there on that thing and like you know just a dude with a monster price tag attached to his name i don’t know if he has what it takes to actually win but a top 10 price is still very juicy on him so uh played the top 10 as opposed to the outright i mean maybe I’ll throw a sprinkle you know just in case he he he goes crazy but the the real bet for him for the purpose of this pot it’s like a top 10 bet on him yeah because I wonder like these are the type of events because we know if you’ve still followed the DP World Tour they have those standings where the top 10 guys that are not already exempt get PGA Tour cards this seems like one of those events that like maybe one of those guys can win you know because it is a step up in class when you’re playing on the DP World Tour and now you’re playing against the best in the world even in downfields like this this is stronger than your average DP World Tour field say for like the you know the events right around the Open say for like the Irish Open or the BMW PGA one of their signature events like this field is still stronger so this this because I played a couple of those guys like Choreborn Olison and you know hadn’t gotten there for me even though he’s a f would have been a first round leader a couple weeks ago in Canada but the Hoyards like this seems like where those European players would break through at one of these type of events uh and then the very last guy off the card for me and it’s just again I Wes I’m I’m falling victim to the thing that you just said don’t fall victim for which is like I bet the guy so much and then it’s never got home like Kurt Kittyhama like fits this thing i almost played Kurt Kittyama like to a bill like 317 off the tea he’s 10th in Birdie or better gained he’s 21st in opportunities gained he’s 20th in opportunities plus he’s 14th in regular birdie bread i mean like he’s just every single thing about him like screams I should be playing him and then well somebody at Circus Sports really likes him and then you know the reason why I held off of that because it’s like usually if they’re the low in the market I’m like okay cuz I know that they’re taking bigger limits than a lot of places so it’s like okay that at least opens my eyes but Kurt Kittyama is a local here too he does live here in Las Vegas and play at UNLV so I wonder if there’s a buddy that’s got some money and I’m going to bet on my boy my neighbor here wherever Kurt lives here in town and do that so but he did kind of match some characteristics so maybe for insurance I’ll play like a top 30 or something you know just to have something on him but he was a guy I looked at very closely yeah so I don’t feel like an idiot if he were to uh to do something with all of that kelly will be uh here with his picks uh momentarily guys but a reminder all of our picks will be up over on von.com and vson.com/subsubscribe to become a prosubscriber over there so you can get to that pick page and get all of that kelly will close things out before Wes I am Matt good luck on all your rocket picks all right Kelly Bidlin here fun internet problems sorry for the uh dropout and delay and long shots a little bit uh little had to cobble together the end here a little bit it’s okay uh you heard Wes you heard Matt run through all of their bets wanted to get on here um and at least give you guys all of mine as always thanks for watching thanks for listening thanks for subscribing thanks for the reviews ratings all that good stuff we appreciate you guys couldn’t do any of this stuff um without you head over to von.com get Wes’s write up and then all of our plays uh will be over there as well i mentioned it earlier in the pod but with birdiefest like this this is very much a go a little bit lighter for me going to play some outrights cover them with some top fives um and not much further down the board i do have top two top 20 bets though uh this week i’ll get those out of the way now I Ben Griffin I can’t ignore the guy any longer the consistent uh results that he is putting up t14 T10 second place a win T8 um green across the board with stro gain categories i can’t ignore it any longer i didn’t go outright on Ben Griffin although I wouldn’t I wouldn’t hate it i just the shortened odds on him uh this week don’t feel great to bet into so I’m going to go a little bit lighter with the top 20 at plus 110 um that was over at MGM I believe uh MGM stations plus 110 uh on Ben Griffin and then Keith Mitchell I also bet top 20 uh this week plus 188 i think close to 2 to1 on Keith Mitchell is a good bet um look he’s on my outright card too he he is first in birdie or betters over the birdie or better over the last 16 rounds ninth in par five scoring he’s a great ball striker we know he’s great off the teen on approach that’s going to matter this week he’s 11th in distance we talked about earlier distance really being a factor uh for us this week so Mitchell uh along with a top 20 bet he is in my outrights uh as well so an outright a top five and a top 20 on Keith Mitchell um and then the other bets that I have made Harry Hall uh that’s a top of my outright card 36 to1 on Harry Hall uh look not a long guy off the tea talked about distance mattering this week he still was a top 10 model play for me this week and I don’t really mind the lack of distance because he’s putting it together with the iron play right now he’s gained inh four straight offense that’s uh one of the things that’s held Harry back a little bit before in the past and the one thing he continues to do very well is just putt the ball he’s a top rate but uh putter uh in this tournament for me and if I’m really just looking about making birdies or better on a course that is very scorable I don’t really care how you get it done i think the easiest path to that is to hit it long off the tee have a short approach shot in and then go up there and make a putt harry might have to do a little bit more on approach this week but with quality approach numbers leading into the event him having a very very good putter and consistent putter I care more about this week so it did start with Harry Hall 36 to1 talked about Keith Mitchell already got him at 48 to1 i think anything over 40 to1 on Keith Mitchell is a good bet um this week i know I know for those of you that uh watch numbers Gabe listen to this podcast podcast often you know I got a Keith Mitchell problem so take it with a grain of salt maybe just bet him first round leader i’ll be playing him there uh as well for sure but uh I do like him this week um Max Grazerman next up for me 40 to1 uh got him at Graserman a very unique kind of mix if if you’re not familiar with his game a great off the tea player and a great putter which we don’t really have a ton of those on tour i you know we usually talk about the Keith Mitchells of the world great off the tea and great on approach struggle with the putter a little bit or they’re great short game players who maybe not are as long off the tea grazerman’s one of those odd mixes of strong off the tea game strong putting it’s all the stuff in between that’s been a little bit of concern but um actually over his past five events he’s gained on approach in all five it’s actually been the putter that’s been a little up and down over that time so hopefully he finds it in a little in a place where I look we know put putting the putting um results it’s actually a difficult location to putt well at but still it’s one of those tournaments with it being a birdie fest that when you look back afterward so many of the strokes gained on by the winners are made up on the green so hopefully that hoping that Greaserman can find that uh this week his recent results T36 at the Travelers T-23 at the US Open T-25 at the Memorial and T-22 at the Charles Schwab so he’s been putting together some consistent results here really want to see what this game his game looks like if he’s able to put it all together and a guy again a guy who has putted well in the past so hopefully he can get that done he was T31 here last year and then the last guy on my card Alex Smallley i’ve stayed away from him uh him for a bit now he was a guy bet heavily at the beginning of the season uh another great ball striker a great off the tea great on approach uh Alex Smallley is and has been all season long putting together some good results had a little bit of a dip in the middle of his season um but you know he’s kind of back back at it now t13 at the Canadian Open yes he had a miscut at the Charles Schwab but then you go T28 at the PGA big- time golf there obviously and a T5 at Myrtle Beach he’s putting he’s finding it a little bit more again like he had earlier in the season so I’m going to I’m going to go back to Alex Smallley this week in a course that I think should set up fairly well uh for him and you’re getting about 60 to1 on him i got 63 to1 uh here in town on Alex Smallley in the outright so cover that with a top five again that’s Harry Hall Keith Mitchell Max Grazerman Alex Smallley and outrights in top fives ben Griffin Keith Mitchell in top 20s haven’t bet him yet won’t bet him till tomorrow but short list of f first round leader bets for me right now keith Mitchell Harry Hall and Alex Smallley i believe Wes brought him up as well milliano Grill probably the first guy I left off my card he’s really rounding into form i don’t hate that play at all this week either i think it was one of Wes’s got very close to playing Ameliano so whether you want to look I considered him a little bit more for first round leader i might end up on him there um but fully endorsed that bet uh for Wes this week so um again all of our bets over at von.com go there check out Wes’s article as well for this week uh hopefully this all came together for you this week sorry for some of the technical problems we’ve had the past uh couple weeks now on Longot last week was a disaster i don’t want to talk about it i don’t know what what the hell happened couldn’t figure it out um but for West for Matt they got done earlier good job boys i’m sure you did a great great great work uh I’m Kelly Bentley for long shots uh we will talk to you guys next