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hello ladies and gentlemen welcome to calls calls this is the 2024 CJ cup Byron Nelson initial research show easy enough for you to say uh after a week off we are back uh some sometimes it’s good to rest recharge the batteries which is what I’ve done this week kind of just uh laid low played some golf uh and got off the computer for a week um did a little bit of research uh but mostly just enjoyed the time off watched a little bit of the Zurich watched a little bit of Liv golf Adelaide I think that’s how you pronounce it uh which was very interesting both uh tours had Playoffs today uh watched the NFL draft uh so was very very good week much needed time off rest and recharge ready to go excited for the Byron Nelson as we lead up to the second major of the year the PGA Championship so would love to hear from you all uh on everything that happened for you all this week um we’ll get into that uh but really just uh just looking forward to getting back into the groove of things so let’s start all uh statistics provided tonight and every night are from fantasy national.com it is the best golf Analytics tool out there for your money it’s going to make you a much smarter golf Gambler and a much better golf DFS player go check out fantasy national.com you will not regret it in the description of the video there are links to all of the social media first off my X and Instagram where every week I post research regarding the PGA Tour or around the PGA Tour usually around past winners patterns of those winners some course uh detail so if you would like to see the weekly research that I do on the PJ tour then give me a follow at your preferred social media site X is also where I do or place my weekly betting cards and my top player usage in the DFS contest that I play that comes out every Wednesday evening after the DFS tactic show so if you want to see those pieces of information give me a follow over at X and lastly for social media gab’s handle is in the description he writes a very good article called The Fringe it’s a great way to start your preparation for uh the tournament of the week and he continues to update you throughout the week with his own version of recent form course history and speaking speak of Wednesday night if you are a subscriber to his article you’re going to be able to join us in his substack chat every Wednesday night as we continue the DFS talk after calls calls um we talk about Game Theory our favorite uh players uh in different areas of the price board our scary Fades chalk that we’re eating so uh it’s a great conversation great discussion over there the only way you’re going to be able to join us is if you are a subscriber to his article it is free to do so so go show him some support follow him over on social media as well and then lastly we’re live chat’s open how uh was the zerich classic free wall hopefully you have Rory and Shane in an outright used them plenty in DFS um how was the NFL draft for your favorite team how do you feel about your favorite team’s draft uh what do you know about TPC Craig Ranch uh and the Byron Nelson um who do you think is the early favorite in your mind uh so would love to hear all about your week this past week uh but we are here for the Byron Nelson so let’s do our initial research for the 2024 Byron Nelson and we start as we always do on a Sunday evening over at the gcsaa tournament fact sheet let me Center this camera just very quickly we are in M Kenny Texas which is a northern suburb of D we are at TPC Craig Ranch which has been on the tour now for see if I can zoom in for you all here yeah there we go been on the tour for now the fourth year um and if you are uh a little confused don’t worry because the CJ cup we used to have its own tournament it used to be an exclusive event uh similar to a WGC used to be played in Korea and then 2020 happen move over in the states um but AT&T did not renew their um spons sponsor uh agreement or or sponsorship deal for the Byron Nelson so the CJ cup steps in the CJ cup is now the sponsor of the Byron Nelson but TBC Craig Ranch in mckeny Texas this is a Tom wisoff design and he has his hands on a few designs on the PGA tour um they don’t list it here but da wering uh was a consultant on the course uh so wisoff has his hands on a few courses on the tour but nothing to do with architect in fantasy National at least but the biggest thing about TPC Craig Ranch other than the length which we’ll get into the one thing you need to know about TPC Craig Ranch birdies birdie birdies this is just one of the easiest if not the easiest course on the PGA tour what makes it so easy we’ll get into that obviously but it is a par 71 measuring just over 7,400 yard so it is a fairly long course especially by PGA Tour standards you see the stim 11 and a half right around average uh a lot of the time uh the wind has some Factor on that uh being in in Texas wind uh um Can can play some Havoc the greens are very large or at least larger than tour average measuring almost 6,800 Square ft uh 35 Acres of Fairway is is quite wide um and these Fairways are are treelined but the trees are backed away from the from the fairways so it’s a very very generous uh driving course uh quite a bit of rough again this is just a just a massive uh property here TBC Craig Ranch but the rough is not kept very uh thick it’s not very penalizing uh just under three and uh 3 in Long 83 bunkers about about an average amount uh but 13 holes with water and play that’s a little bit misleading as it is a creek or a tributary that runs through the course other than two holes that I believe uh kind of circle a pond but that Creek does not does not really come into play for uh the majority of the holes that it is listed here uh especially for professionals um we are on pure bent grass greens I do not know what type of bent grass whether it’s Dominator or l93 or whatnot but we are on pure bent grass greens um and the only bent grass tournament we have seen so far uh pure bent grass has been the Masters so we’re going to have to look look at a little bit more historical data uh on Surface or or green surface here Fairways or zoa I talk about zoa a little bit especially um when we’re on the west coast it is sticky so if if you’re not used to it it can be um difficult to play out of um or or at least very very different um but nothing beyond that and then the rough is pure per the rough is a pure Bermuda um you see ret Creek runs through the property and Crosses 14 of the 18 holes like I said that factually is correct but actually coming into play I would argue maybe seven seven or eight holes you have to be very very Wayward uh or just hit the ball like me uh for that water to come into play which is not good if you’re going to hit the ball like me but um very very very easy course very wide very open very forgiving the rough again not kept very thick uh and these Fairways run straight up to the greens so you can play a lot of uh running tumbling shots if you will a lot like the Open Championship um more notes over here I guess this is one of the longer courses on tour just over 7,400 yards um you see this is the second tournament that we have had uh Bentgrass the other being the Masters uh these greens fairly fairly large uh just under 7,000 which uh would have been in the top six or seven or so so there’s a look at TPC Craig Ranch in terms of gcsa tournament fact sheet again pretty large greens 6,800 Square fet pretty long course to be fair uh par 71 four par 3es three par fivs measuring just over 7,400 yards so we will be taking a look at some long course metrics we and we are on pure bent grass greens so with that let’s move to Fantasy National and there’s been one field change since Friday when the the initial field came out Christian bazen hoo has decided not to play he has withdrawn Richie rinsky has taken his place and and due to the timing of this tournament it has generally not seen the strongest fields and that is a another um uh that is the case this year again uh not the strongest field uh in fact if you look at 2024 performance you know our top players Alex noren Tom hogi seu Kim Doug gim Justin low Keith Mitchell MAV MCM Peter Quest only eight rounds but but be Quest Mark hubard Davis Thompson um the biggest names here this week the biggest probably being Jordan spe he has played very very well here at TPC Craig ranchez will’ll cover uh Wills Al torus is here Jason day is our defending Champion uh has decided to Tee It Up uh and those really are about the biggest the the big three names um we got you know some some very good talent uh see Kim and Tom hogy these are PGA Tour winners Alex noren Keith Mitchell but of the big big names uh really it’s just those three so we’ve seen uh total performance we can take a quick look at uh long course performance so let’s go ahead and do that taking a look at courses that are over 7,400 yards and we’ll go for the last two years your top performers on Long courses the past 36 rounds or two years Sam Stevens Sun Jay Michael Kim Wesley Bryan will zorus Eric Barnes Jordan spe Matt coer Adam shank Jay day and Hayden Springer of course with the Zurich being not being a stroke play event those statistics uh will not be in from last week uh they normally aren’t or they they never have been since that is not a stroke play event so all of the data will be up to the second in terms for um by fantasy National that we will be able to gather for this week so there’s a look at your top um performers on Long courses I’m going to go ahead and set this to easy but we’re not going to go through it just yet because I want to show you just how easy and why TBC Craig Ranch is easy as it is so uh the length of the course does come into these long par 4S um you’re going to see a bevy of par fours measuring between 450 and 500 the par fivs however are very very getable and they’re not terribly long three par FS one at 570 essentially one at 565 then one just over 550 at 552 but let’s look at the scoring on those par fivs you’ve got playing better than a half a shot under par better than a half a shot under par close to a half a shot under par so if you are parring the par fives here at TPC Craig Ranch you are losing quite a bit of ground to the rest of the field look at the Eagle rates 3% 5% 1% now not a whole lot there but you still have some some very good scoring some Eagle opportunities and there are a couple of very short even drivable par 4S power 4 6 the 361 yields an e uh yields of Birdie at 40% hey Barbarian thanks for jumping in chat hopefully you had a good week let me know how it went if you played any Zurich if you uh if you had any outrights uh how do you like your favorite team’s NFL draft but good to see you this evening I am rested uh recovered recuperated recharg the batteries if you will ready to take on the second half of the PGA Tour season uh starting with the Byron Nelson um so there’s the first drivable par 4 uh yielding an eagle at a decent clip and a 40% birdie rate you also have the par for 14th at 330 uh a 2% Eagle rate birdie rate you know above 35% so there are several holes here at TPC Craig Ranch that are very very getable in fact when we look at where par Falls um it’s in between the eighth and Ninth most difficult hole um but again that that kind of um misleads you a little bit thinking that this is an average difficulty course it is not you see the toughest hole in the course par 4 492 plays the 2/10 over par so I mean it it can um yield bring in a bogey you also have 1600s and those are the only two that play more than a tenth of a shot over par and again we covered the par fives all of them at or above or or better than a half a shot under par uh the two short par fours playing 3/10 and 4/10 under par two10 under par just lots and lots and lots of Birdie opportunities here at TBC Craig Ranch Zurich was very profitable uh not profitable I I hate to hear that um but that is one reason why uh I I don’t mess with the Zurich uh as an analyst I mean as a as a golf fan it’s fine it it breaks up the monotony of of stroke play and all that so it’s it’s kind of neat in that regard but as an analyst it’s a nightmare uh I’ve tried it before did not like it so uh and and with it being kind of just right in the middle of the PJ tour season for me I kind of treat it as a halfway mark and kind of just rest and recharge hopefully we’ll get back on the uh right track uh this week for you um with the Byron Nelson uh and getting prepped for the PGA Championship which is in my backyard essentially or at least it’s in uh the big town that I live in a sub suburb of so quite looking forward to that uh figure out a way to correct that yeah uh I’ve tried I mean there’s there’s ways to do it but again everything that I would have done would have been very surface level approach around the green you know uh heavy emphasis on putting and I don’t know I just I kind of like to get into the weeds the data like I can with all all the other events uh if we look at uh TBC Craig Ranch in terms of Strokes gained by shot type you’ll see this is a very big ball striking course in fact off the te and approach are very very similar it’s very very rare that you get approach um uh the same level of off the tea That’s just How uh important off the te can be here um and how Approach at least for the top 10 end NE maybe necessarily isn’t the biggest deal uh that will change as we rise on the leaderboard and of course if you’re doing well in tournament you’re going to be making putts but this is this is just emphasizing the ball striking here for you the off the is far outweighing the around the Green Top fives the approach starts to take off a little bit um but still the around the green lagging a little bit still a ball striking course and then for your winners they have been really ball strik tracking I mean look at the the off the te the approach is a 1 and 1 half per round uh just a heavy heavy emphasis on ball striking and then uh with these big greens it can turn into a putting contest but mostly we’re looking for very very good ball Strikers particularly from a particular range or a specific range and we’ll get into that here shortly as well but there’s a look at your average Strokes gained by shot type uh lots of lots of ball striking particularly off the T um the approach you don’t want to ignore um but a lot of off the T considering distance is going to be a decent little factor I think this week moving to Strokes game by Ho by par uh look you got to score on these par fivs we just covered it holy macro look at that the par 3es are almost non-existent par fives are everything it does even out a little bit as we climb the leaderboard uh the par fours start to catch up to the par FS a little bit Par 3 still lag though um and then the winners par fours kind of catch the par fivs they are the winners are playing the par 3es a little bit better but commonly it’s still the par fivs par fours uh of a specific range as we’ll see and the par 3s are just quite mitigated here there’s just not a lot to them um Par 3 15th Blaze to right at par uh the par three uh 17th plays a little bit under par par 3 7th plays a little bit over par it is the fifth hardest hole on the course and then the par three fourth again slightly overpar but again only 700s and it’s the fourth hardest hole you know you’re basically getting your pars here and that’s what a lot of uh the pros have done and then they are feasting on the fours and the fives so there’s a look at your Strokes gained by whole by par we go to the whole composition we’ve got one extremely short par three measuring 147 and then we have two par 3s over 200 yards or actually three par 3s over 200 yards two between 200 to 225 and one 225 plus we do have a short drivable par 4 we also have a a semi- drivable par 4 so one drivable at 330 one semi- drivable for the biggest of big hitters uh so two very very short power fours two power fors from 400 450 but look six par fours six of the 11 fall in this 450 to 500 range so quite clearly from the start of our uh week and research probably going to be focused heavily on this range and then we do have one power four that’s over 500 uh par 4 512 and it’s not even the hardest hole in the course so not too big of a deal and then all three par fivs measure between 550 and 600 Pro chot distribution look these power fivs are all attackable all the pros are going to attack these power fives into two and with the extreme amount of power fours that are you know 450 plus and you have one that’s over 500 look 35% of your approach shots come from 200 plus here at TBC Craig Ranch it is just an enormous Factor here at this golf course so early on in our week you’re going to be one wanting to Target the ball Strikers particularly who are Adept at 200 plus historic cut line we only have one in here it was minus three that’s very very easy we’ll see that that’s very common at TBC Craig Ranch uh I believe the others were minus three as well maybe minus two I don’t know why we don’t have 2022 and 2021 in here um such is the case uh scoring distribution look 23% birdies uh just an enormous amount of birdies here at TBC Craig Ranch whereas the Bogies are only at 11% so more than double the amount of birdies than Bogies doubles and Eagles are roughly similar roughly so yeah you get all of these scores uh that are underpar compared to overpar it’s going to lead to a very very easy tournament very very easy tournament and easy course driving accuracy little bit misleading uh it says it’s um less than the average Tour event it’s because the pros don’t really care about being in the rough there isn’t a whole lot of trouble to get into uh they’re just trying to hit it as far as they can we’ll see that in the driving distance here shortly uh so uh accuracy slightly less but again that’s just because there uh the pros aren’t necessarily trying to hit the Fairway or at least there’s not a premium on it as in say like a Tory Pines or or in the majors green and regulation percentage extremely high these greens are not difficult at all yes this is a long course but there isn’t a whole lot of trouble um surrounding these greens other than you know the the occasional bunker I believe there are one or two holes that has the pond that guards the green but otherwise these greens are large um and the course isn’t difficult so very very high Greening regulation percentage and what also helps the ease of the course play players are able to scramble here um scrambling is not difficult at TBC Craig Ranch you can see that there almost a 2/3 uh successful rate of scrambling versus 57% or 58% at the average turn EV event three putts per round only um you know less than a half a three putt of a round so not three putts aren’t a big deal here at TBC Craig Ranch either and as we mentioned the driving distance 295 as opposed to 283 at the average T event uh just lots of distance players are hitting driver uh they’re they’re going for it on the on the short par fours they’re all attacking the par fivs and two distance just a big deal and then proximity the one thing that is uh keeping this from from being a la ably uh scoring or scorable Fest like capala proximity is quite a bit further away from the whole again these greens are um pretty large the approach shots are coming in from 200 plus so you wouldn’t expect to be completely dialed in there so uh proximity is quite a bit further away than the average T event but even so seeing all of these scores all of these birdies uh um it’s it’s just very easy just very very very easy when we look at the historic conditions look we had one round of average this is the only round that was not easy so far at TPC Craig Ranch the only round even when the wind picked up two years ago moderate and windy it played easy played easy every single round in in its debut uh we can only go back to 2021 because before then it was played at Trinity forest and TPC Four Seasons so we’re only looking at three years of data here uh the green speeds have been anywhere between average and fast um a lot of that will depend on the wind and uh how much they want to water the greens in between the rounds but very easy of course we’re on bent just very very easy so going back to the players in the field this week on or in rounds that are easy relative to par the past two years our top performers have been Alex noren Ben Griffin Peter Quest Taylor pendrith Bo Hustler chain Kim Adam shank Doug gim Luke list and Michael Kim okay um we took a we took a quick look at a few things uh in the course breakdown I am going to keep the easy relative par filter on cuz let’s take a look at off the tea in the past couple of years when courses have been easy uh at least early on in in my research and thought process this week this is what I’m kind of leaning to is is looking at off the tea when uh rounds are easy so in those rounds our top off the tea performers have been cam champ Kevin Yu Peter Quest Keith Mitchell Vincent Norman seu Kim Ryan Palmer Taylor penders Sam Stevens and Stephen joerger let’s remove that filter we’re going to look at just 2024 and our top approach players in the field this week Tom hogi Ryan Moore Keith Mitchell Andrew Novak will zuris Jake knap Joel Damon Mark Hub SE W Kim Ben Martin and Aaron Ry lastly let’s take a look at some bent uh bent grass performance so uh bent I am actually going to use just the average and fast because there are few courses that that have lightning bent greens I’m thinking of the Masters I’m thinking of the memorial that has had lightning speed greens I even think the John Deer has had lightning speed bent greens uh in the recent past so I just want to look at average and fast I do not want to look at lightning speed bent greens and we’re going to filter this to the last two years in the past two years on fast or average and fast bent greens your top Putters have been MAV mcne s you know Taylor Montgomery Justin low Richie rinsky Harry Hall chest Hadley David skins Mark hubard and sunj again Christian bazen hoot is not in the field even though he originally committed to playing he is not in the field he is withdrawn all right we’re going to take a look at a couple of things I normally take a look at one kind of overarching uh Factor I’m actually going to take a look at two or three uh tonight uh in preparation for uh moving into the data dive tomorrow this will give you a good head start on your thought process this week your research um perhaps with your Wagers when the odds come out tomorrow uh and then later on when pricing for DFS comes out first thing let’s take a look at is we saw just how many of the approach shots come from 200 plus here at TPC Craig Ranch so in this calendar year in 2024 your top performers in proximity 200 plus yards away Bobby Mack Andrew Novak Patrick Fishburn Tom hogi Thor bjor Kevin U Keith Mitchell Patton gazy Sammy balamaki Kevin DH and Aaron Ry those are your top players in 2024 who’s in the best recent form in proximity 200 plus good evening Derek thanks for jumping the chat my day is going well I have rested recharged took the Zurich off uh as a golf fan I enjoy the event breaks up the monotony of of you know stroke play and all that stuff so from a fan standpoint I quite enjoy it I didn’t I wouldn’t want to do it too often but it it’s just different I enjoy that but as an analyst as a statistician as a as a golf you know better and and DFS player it’s an absolute nightmare so I just I don’t even fool with it so I generally take that week off uh but the day’s been good hopefully your week has went well your day has went well you are ready for the Byron Nelson uh and to build some momentum as we move towards the second major of the PJ tour season but thanks for jumping into chat um so there’s your look at some 200 plus uh the the other two things I want to look at um and we’ll we’ll confirm this tomorrow in the data dive but you know over half of the par fours measure 450 to 500 here at TPC Craig Ranch so your top performers on those links of powerful fours this 450 to 500 in 2024 Carl Yuan Tom hogi Max graser Eric Barnes MAV mcney Adam shank Jordan Speed chz reevy Stephan joerger and Rafael compos last thing we’re going to take just a a quick big picture view of you got to score on these par fives and particularly we’re going to look at the 550 to 600 because as we went through the course breakdown again all three par 3es measured to that length on the scorecard they will play shorter than that sometimes when they move t p when they move te’s and pin placements but I think this is a fair assessment just to you know kind of get a a big picture view so last thing we’ll take a a you know kind of a quick look at this evening your top par five performers from 550 to 600 yards in the field this week Alex noren Nick Dunlap Thomas dietry mark hubard Jason day your defending Champion thorbjorn olison Ryan McCormack Bo Hustler M Hughes and will alus all right we move to the tournament history tab The Strokes gain total tab if you will and it’s important to note we’re only going to be looking at 2021 forward again TPC Craig Ranch debuted in 2021 so we’re we don’t want to take any consideration for 2018 and 2019 completely different course yes it was still the Byron Nelson Tournament but it was played at a completely different course so we are only only focused on these three years so all all I can do is go by The Strokes gain total which is including these two so somebody like Scott piery who had a runner up and a t32 further back he’s missed the cut twice at TPC Craig Ranch now he did top 20 last year but he would definitely fall uh in terms of Strokes game total if we were only looking at these at these three years so be mindful of that when we go through some of these players and I’ll try to point that out but we’re only focused on these three years here Jordan Speed no surprise Texas native you know from the I believe from the Dallas Fort Worth area and this is a suburb of Dallas so he’s played very well at TPC Craig Ranch top 10 a runner up did not play here last year KH Lee was was your two-time Champion the first two years TPC Craig Ranch uh was seen he won the inaugural and then he defended his championship or defended his title two years ago before Jason Dade knocked him off last year and he still made the cut so he’s played very very well there’s something about this course KH Lee likes Adam Scott has played well in his two tries Ryan Palmer again a Texas native two top 10 the past two years here he always plays easy course as well so that’s a name that is under the radar that you probably want to take uh or or uh make a note of he he definitely plays easy coures well ain’t a Texas native so somebody that you should probably have your eye on uh just profited the Z well that good glad to hear that the Zer went well for you um I feel like less popular always have a great week and make a move just like raming trainer so I mean I I appreciate that you’re willing to give me credit but you know I didn’t do anything for the Zurich I really didn’t um you know whether what you have taken from previous um shows of mine you know I’m glad to hear that it has worked for you but as I mentioned last week you know any any advice I would have given would have been very very surface level approach you know putting on poet trivialis maybe looked at some you know specific Links of par fours uh but uh I just that tournament to me is a nightmare as an analyst but I’m glad to hear that it went well for you um that’s awesome uh so I will I will make sure to put that at the beginning of the show tomorrow night uh that you had success for the Zurich um it’s great to hear it and then where you have some momentum built in or you have some momentum leading into the Byron Nelson so let’s try to keep it uh keep it going uh let’s see some others here that have played fairly well at TVC Craig Ranch Stephen joerger two for two CT pan only one for one but a top five um Sheamus power three for three at TBC Craig Ranch all three top 20s including a top 10 so he has played very well at TBC Craig Ranch JJ spawn has been mediocre two for two um you know be aware on a lookout for somebody like Kevin TW just like Scott piery missed the cut the first two years and then top 15 last year jayday has been you know up and down you missed the cut the first year made the cut to a you know fairly poor finish in 2022 and then wins Matt Coo’s been okay here uh CZ isn’t in here or he’s not playing this week Nate Lashley one or two for three so there’s a look at some of the players who have played the best at TPC Craig Ranch the other end of the spectrum players who haven’t played well uh Kelly craft one for three Austin cook one for three uh ja Meisner 0 for two Pearson Cy 0 for two may have missed it but how harsh is the cut going to be this week like how many players make it through um I mean it’s always hard to say but uh I I started the show off tonight the one thing you got to know and understand about TBC Craig Ranch the the the biggest takeaway birdies birdies birdies birdies this course is just if it’s not the easiest course it’s one of the easiest courses on the PJ tour we can see that in the historic conditions last year the second round play to average and that’s the only round since TPC Craig Ranch has been seen that’s the only round that has been average everything else has been easy KH Lee has had winning scores of 24 and 25 or maybe 25 and 26 I mean shoot even Jason Day last year got it all the way up to 23 so I mean just low I mean you know you have guys that are shooting 18 under and not cracking the top 10 so this place is just extremely easy that’s the one takeaway you got to you got to take away so occasionally 26 and then 25 so just huge amounts huge amounts of birdies and scoring opportunities here at TBC Craig Ranch so because of that generally speaking I would say the Cut’s probably going to be pretty large but it’s hard to say it’s hard to say uh good evening uh c um it’s good to see you in chat appreciate the content need a one and done pick this week uh Tom Ken can feel but not having um so I always do my oneandone Wednesday night um because I like to kind of dig into the data and and do all that off the top of my head it’s really hard not to like KH Lee now he’s going to be pretty popular I would think as a oneandone but I have to imagine he’s still available for you um he’s played extremely well here and there’s something about this course if you want to get real unique if you want to get uh crazy I actually you know at least on a Sunday night and we have we still have three days to kind of you know focus our research and and focus our thoughts I really like Ryan Palmer as well Ryan Palmer lights up easy courses and this is this is easy it’s definitely easy so that’s another name to maybe consider I don’t know how desperate you are uh whether you’re at the top of your standings bottom of your standings I don’t know uh what kind of risks you need to take um but Ryan Palmer is also somebody that I I would be interested in especially if I’m trying to get unique um let’s see let me catch up here it’s going to make a crazy Showdown DFS on show on Sunday yeah well not even on just on Sunday I mean depending on the Wind which we’ll we’ll start looking at the wind tomorrow um uh at the beginning of the show which uh I think the wind is supposed to be picked up pretty heavily this week so that could keep scores somewhat in check um but generally speaking you’re just you’re going to have to find the guys that are going to go low that day specifically talking on Showdown um and I used to do Showdown content um just things have gotten in the way of that but if there’s enough interest I will do Showdown content um I usually did it on Friday night kind of looking at the weekend so if that’s something you’re interested in you know leave leave a comment I would appreciate a comment saying that you would be interested in in Showdown um Showdown streams or Showdown shows um everybody with spe Willie G and on I mean spe and Willie are going to be so overwhelmingly popular this week that I don’t know the speed with his poor recent form I just don’t want any part of especially in a oneandone um and I imagine he’s going to be pretty popular he might play well this week but I will let others take that risk I think that’s my thought at least on a Sunday night will Z I would imagine is going to be pretty popular if he’s not already been used on gim yeah so I wouldn’t want any part of those two anyway so I don’t think you’re missing out by not using them on gim maybe so yeah I know you don’t have them left I’m just I’m trying to talk through talk through like the um the what uh opportunity cost of not having them I guess Lashley history is fine here um he’s got you know essentially an average of a top 20 T t17 t23 and A miscut Lashley is burned me enough recently that I don’t he’s just burned me recently he did not play well in events that I thought he would and then he comes in top 10 or top fives events that I don’t think he has a prayer in so yeah that’s where I’m at on Lashley uh he’s he’s very very very close to being the jaded X lover I used him in the Caribbean events he didn’t play worth a damn and really killed my DFS in the alternate events um so there’s a look at some of the players who have not played well I’ll continue to go through through this just kind of kind of quickly here chessen Hadley only one for three not played well here Martin lard uh two for three but kind of middling in terms of performance Ryan Moore 0 for two Grayson Sig 0 for two Kevin Chapel 0 for two Adam shank one for three not the greatest uh you can see like somebody like shank t79 so that tells you there was just a lot of a lot of people making those cuts I bet um I think it was UC who asked about the cut line um no it was Derek so we take a look at last year’s yeah like 84 players made the cut and it was the same you know top 65 in ties so when you get an easy tournament like this I tend to think there are more players that make the cut uh Sheamus power um has played played very very well here I don’t like his recent form but Sheamus power has played very well here Burger I’m just waiting to to see I’m waiting to see him all the way back uh from his injury I wonder if you can make a list of players to fade they say no maybe at least he can has low ownership yeah um yeah so all right with that let’s move to Microsoft Excel we’re going to cover what I call the early look file uh this is performance specifically at TBC Craig Ranch again remember TBC Craig Ranch has only been seen three years so there’s only going to be three events here this is performance specifically at TPC Craig Ranch what they have uh done well and what they’ve not done so well you see Daniel burer average fin of third so he’s only played it one time he did finish third CT pan finished fourth any player highlighted in Orange is an alternate as of right now um so I I removed Christian Baden hoot uh and Richie rinsky wasn’t alternate he’s now in the field you can see he’s not highlighted anymore um normally I would take out players who have only played at one time and in fact I’m I’m going to go ahead and do that so I want to look at the players whove at least least played TPC Craig Ranch two of the three years it won’t be a lot of players but I want to see the players who have played it at least twice what they’ve done well here and who’s performed well you see Jordan speed has average averaged a sixth place finish he’s been very good with his irons here Sheamus has done a lot of things very well average finish of 15th Alex noren average finish of 17th KH Lee won the first two years average finish of 17th so here’s a look at the players who have at least played it multiple times or played TBC Craig Ranch multiple times what they’ve done well you see off the tier we’ll go down to the players of average a top 40 I know that doesn’t sound great but again remember this is an average they’ve averaged a 40th Place finish so very well Patrick Rogers could have top 20 and then had a middling U we talked about Palmer he has averaged a 20th Place finish he’s been very very good here so what have these players been doing well off the te 1.3 pretty solid look at the irons again this is just a ball striking course this is a 2.3 that’s large that is very big only one player NE two players negative in approach who have played well here and they are really really close to being field average so you got to have some some good irons here the around the green decent performance but look at some of these numbers in the approach like 5 and A2 a seven from khle a four 4 and a half versus somebody or like some of these like the highest number in the around the green is 3.1 it’s just not a big deal here scrambling is not difficult around TPC Craig Ranch so you just don’t have the importance you don’t have the significance there’s not a lot to gain at or with the around the green this is only a 1.0 and then the putting sitting at a 1.3 the same as off the te very very rare do you see putting not be the first or the second most prominent uh Strokes gain shot type so that’s just showing you how how much off the te is going to matter this week looking at or moving to driving distance and Fairway greens surprisingly even though this is a long course with everybody having driver in their hand look you don’t have to have a lot of distance look Tom Kim has played well here he doesn’t have a lot of distance Mark hubard certainly isn’t long he’s had a decent amount of success here Brandon woo has not seemingly gained much distance at all here still fared pretty well I mean even power and norin are negative relative to to the field and have played very very well so I’m a little shocked by this but the data is not supporting that distance would matter to your point Derek it does look like good drives gained would be something that you would want to look at on top of the good drives gained would be the greens so the good drives gained is a combination of Fairways which don’t matter at all these Fairways are extremely wide and when a player is not in the Fairway they’re still able to hit the greens in regulation plenty easily it looks like it’s these greens cuz look not a single player who has averaged a top 40 finish gosh dang it not a single player who has averaged a top 40 finish playing it multiple times is negative in Greens not a single one Johnny Vegas huge amounts KH Lee huge mounts jday our defending Champion just outside of that top 40 threshold not necessarily the best but looking like greens at least early on in our research and and the and when we go into the data tomorrow when we really dig into TPC Craig Ranch get our hands dirty with the data uh we’ll we’ll be able to back this up but um looking looking like greens early on in this week moving to scoring I’m going to tell you right now it’s it’s just about the birdies we will be looking at birdies are better gained but there’s not a whole lot of there’s not a lot a whole lot to be gained with eagles because quite a few players are gaining Eagles hopefully that makes sense so you just got to get [ __ ] tons of birdies it’s just the way it is here you just got to get tons and tons and tons of birdies look at this heavy green at the very very top 5 and A2 5 and 1/2 four and 1/2 six damn near five and A2 four four lots and lots and lots of the birdies gained not to say that you you uh you know you can afford to take a lot of Bogies either but look at the sheer volume again the 5 and 1/2 the six the 5 and 1/2 versus the top number here is a four you’re quickly down into the threes two and a halfs again we’re just going to be looking at birdies are better gained at for this week at TBC Craig Ranch saw a little bit of this in the course breakdown fantasy National Par 3 don’t seem to matter at all they just don’t this is a 0.3 just very very um lackluster in terms of importance whereas the par fours this is a 3.3 that’s pretty high a little higher than I would have thought and the par fives a 2.3 that number is extremely high I know it’s off your screen don’t worry we’ll get there but when you look at the par 3s versus the fours versus the fives that 2.3 in the par fives is a huge number that’s really big nothing stands out of the par three so we’re going to just ski that par fours you see you know got to play them well more than half of your par fors fall into this range so this is the range that’s getting played the best I think but you don’t have the overwhelming like green meaning you know excellent in terms of correlation having said that look at the look at the values here three and a two and A2 a two and A2 a two whereas this one looks better because of all the green but it they’re all like one and A2 and and ones so I still think it’s the 450 to 500 that we’ll that we want to focus on but again when we go into the uh weeds of the data when we really dig into it tomorrow we’ll be able to to narrow down which range of par 4 is but I’m pretty sure it’s this one then looking at the par FS you just got to play them well you see not a single player negative in par fives there you go you’ve got to you got to take advantage of these par fives funly enough it looks like the 500 to 550 which all three par fivs measure to this range on the scorecard and yeah norin and cage Lee have been demolishing that range of power fivs but speed’s been good at the shorter when they move when they move pins and T’s around joerger’s been better there Rogers has been better there so interesting to see but overall you just you got to have some good par five scoring lastly we will take a look at some proximity and I spent quite a bit of time you know looking and telling you that um uh 200 plus was going to matter you got quite a few players that are negative here in 200 plus I mean that’s shocking to me cuz 35 % of your approach shots come from this range come from 200 plus so to see so many players negative this is why I like going through the prior leaderboards and we’ll do that tomorrow to see just how much a particular proximity range contributes to high leaderboard success CU at least here it kind of hasn’t so we’ll we’ll we’ll invest investigate that tomorrow proximity okay it’s it’s decent I suppose nothing great look at this 150 to 175 which doesn’t make a lot of sense at all because again there’s so many attackable par fivs and and long par fours but the majority of your players that have played tbz Craig Ranch the best and have played it mult multiple times looks like the 150 to 175 is what they’ve done their best work at maybe the 125 to 150 which makes even less sense so that’s why I like going through the prior leader boards and we’ll do that tomorrow so that’s that’s it for the show this evening um really good uh interactive chat I love love it um appreciate you all jumping in tomorrow over on social media I will will have some research out regarding KH Lee and Jason day essentially because this this course has only been seen three years so I’ll have some research out um looking at you know their form looking at how they’ve how they’ve played here taking a look at TBC Craig Ranch and and um what they’ve been what they’ve been good at all that stuff taking a look at some detail around TBC Craig Ranch be on the lookout for that tomorrow over on social media and the players in the field this week who fit that criteria but thanks to brarian Derek and C or C may I don’t know how you want to be referred to but thanks to you three for jumping in chat thanks to everybody else out there who Tunes in watches listens supports the channel by liking the videos commenting and subscribing I always appreciate it I love what I do taking an in-depth look at sports statistics mainly Golf and baseball but uh taking an in-depth look at sports statistics giving you a statistician and data analysts view of what he sees trying to help us all a little win a little bit of money in the process uh Derek had a successful Zurich so congratulations to you roarian we’re going to try to get you uh back on the right track seemed like you had a u uh a a rough Zurich so we’re going to try to give get you some momentum uh we’re going to try to dominate this week’s slate uh and win the Wagers that we make for the Byron Nelson in anticipation for the PGA Championship so thanks again for all the support for all the Wagers that you made this past week for the Zurich Classic for all the defs contests you played this past week for the Zurich Classic until I see you tomorrow night for the day to dive show may all your bets be profitable
