2024 Farmers Insurance Open | PGA Picks | Fantasy Golf Picks | Pro vs Pro

Alex Blickle and Justin Bates are back to breakdown the betting slate for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open. They have long-shot PGA Picks, Top 10 PGA Prop Bets, Head to Heads Golf Bets, Fantasy Golf sleeper picks and PGA DFS Picks! Check out all their 2024 Farmers Insurance Open picks on this episode of Pro vs Pro.

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What’s going on everybody welcome back to Prov pro NFL season winding down PGA season heating up it’s a pretty exciting time coming off a historic Victory from Nick Dunlap uh Justin what were you thinking just kind of watching him down the stretch it’s funny because I was

Literally I texted a couple of my buddies and I was like you know what it’s been like six weeks since I’ve hit a golf ball and this is kind of getting my juices full and like got TR to make a big run at the am scene this year and I

Was like this is pretty fun to watch watch and um just kind of enjoy even though like you know anybody that listens know I’m not a huge proponent of of these super easy golf courses and and that kind of golf it was still it’s just fun to kind of get the juices phone

Again and like you like you said you can kind of feel NFL winding down and then you know Big Year from for my Rangers and baseball and so now we’re GNA kind of moving into the golf season did you think speaking of how easy the golf courses were did you think

The the ease of the courses helped him more hurt him because it seemed to me a little bit like it helped him as as in he never had to worry about giving too many strokes back of course he ended up doing that on number seven for the most

Part you not a lot of high stress golf shots on that course and yet at the beginning of the week I would have said it would make it harder because I think there’s a difference and and you certainly know this as well like being able to go extremely low is its own kind

Of skill if you will whereas at a more difficult golf course you could almost see him like not even realizing in how well he was playing but when you’re shooting 10 underpar or something like that you know holy crap this is quite a golf round that I’m putting together

Yeah and and it definitely showed I think the ease the nerves kind of he he got away with the really bad shots right that like there’s a lot of courses where he may have been pitching out or you know here he just now has to headit it

To the center of the green at 30 feet instead of instead of having no shot whatsoever I would say that that that definitely made it easy easier simply because nobody in the final group was firing at him you know I think if Burns or or JT one of them get super hot early

I think you kind of see a change of pace but you know all the heat was coming from guys in the second and third to final group so made it a little bit different although Burns made a late run um speaking of which did you see burns

On like the first hole doing aim point right in dunlap’s line like was there gamesmanship there do you think that was just like a sure I didn’t see that but standing his right like he’s straddling his own line they both kind of hit it over the green and I was like he’s

Literally his right foot as if it’s not in his line it’s really really clo like it’s enough to where if it were me i”d be like dude like let’s let’s not do this anymore or you know what I mean like and I don’t know if it was just you

Know hey I got a 19-year-old kid here and I’m gonna just do whatever I want type of Deal or if I mean you see it all the time from Keegan I guess too they just like the kind of the standing in line stuff has gone by the

Wayside so in terms of what he gets with this Victory some some really big ones he’s in the Masters regardless because you know there are a lot of like exemptions that may carry over for amateurs and then they don’t carry over if you switch to a pro but from winning

This he’s in if he turns Pro and if he doesn’t he’s in from winning the usam so he’s he’s got that covered regardless he’s now fully exempt on the PGA tour through 2026 and interestingly um he gets into Signature Events right away if he turns

Pro so how easy of a decision do you think this is or difficult of a decision for him whether he wants to stay in school or turn pro immediately it has to have some of the reason that he withdrew this week um in my opinion yeah um I think with what the

Career change that he got he’s got to be going home be like all right like I’m going to take this week off because I’m into Pebble as an elevated man um so I would I would be very shocked if you don’t see him at Pebble

As a pro um I don’t know why you wouldn’t golf is not like these other games you know these other sports uh you you better better go ahead and and get it done while the Iron’s hot right I mean you you know there’s no golf doesn’t owe you anything and it

Could go away in a hurry and he’s got a a really good chance of making a really solid career don’t be so naive to the situation of like hey I’m just this good and I’m gonna win again now he may which is great I’m not saying that he won’t

I’m just saying golf can ask Will aloris what he thinks in the grind he’s had coming back and stuff like that so right it it doesn’t owe you anything you got a chance to make a lot of money young early in your career and and go from

There if you want to you know if school is that big of a deal like take classes in the off season or whatever you want to do there’s plenty of time but don’t don’t miss an opportunity here to do everything else I I get it if you

Wouldn’t be into the Masters you know to to lose your am status and all that stuff but he’s in any way at this point you’ve got to do it in my opinion yeah I think I agree and and to me the the thing that like really tips it over the

Edge is the fact that he’s in the elevated events just you you have a handful of events now where you know you’re getting some kind of purse out of it like it it’d be one thing if he felt you know I yeah I won this week but if I

Just go on tour like what if I do poorly and I kind of have to reset and earn my way back on the tour few years later or something like that but he has guaranteed earnings in these elevated events got to think he’s going to get a

Pretty nice sponsorship deal as well uh pretty much right away I don’t he might already have one with nil I’m not entirely sure how that works but uh you got to think that he’s pretty much got it made now so yeah there’s really no reason that I can see why he wouldn’t

Make that jump I think maybe just like the human element is the hardest where he probably has a group of guys his teammates that he really feels connected to and and wants to be there for them and would feel like he’s abandoning them that’s probably the hardest part about

The decision but as far as like the logic of the decision I think it’s pretty clear and I hope and maybe that’s why he went home this week and WD and he’s gonna go tell them in person like hey I’ve got to do this and and to be

Honest if anybody says no you shouldn’t then they’re probably not not that good of a friend anyway right so like if they’re telling you not to do that then that’s probably on them so I yeah I I don’t see why you wouldn’t um I think this also answers the question question

Of once you enter an event as an AM and you win you can’t take that away and just say all right I’m going be a pro I want my 1.5 million or whatever yeah I mean bezen ho just made 1.5 million for finishing second like what a Payday for finishing

Second right so absolutely um yeah I you know you get that question all the time hey can you once you enter as an AM can you turn pro once you get in I think obviously like here’s an $1.5 million reason that you can’t do that I’m going to get yeah so

Yeah yeah so let’s talk a little bit about like how we how we view his prospects on tour let’s say he turns Pro does it feel to you like this is uh you know kind of just um somebody who maybe will see in leaderboards every now and

Then but this was really just like at a left field and he’s he’s gonna have a tough time recapturing this level of success or is he just this good and we should expect to see him consistently on leaderboards moving forward so I hate the fact that he did it at this golf

Course because I think that it tells us way less but that being said he won the usam which is if anybody knows how the USGA sets up golf courses for the usam it’s hard like so he’s prove that he can play on really hard golf courses as well

So I would say it’s obviously not just a shot in the dark you don’t win the usam by accident he I think he won the north south am like he won three or four he won the junior am as a you know as well so he’s proved that he can

Compete on hard golf courses um I don’t know what his transition will be to Pro that’s that’s a great question and there’s some people that the transition’s much easier than others proving that he can win now I think I would lean to the to the side of hey I

Think we’ll see him around for a while um but you know that’s we we we’ll find out I guess is the best way to look at it yeah so a couple things here uh he’s a he’s a sophomore in college he won once uh in the spring last year he then

Won the the Northeast am the North and South am the US am and then in the fall back at college has uh a T8 a win two second place finishes so this is not a guy who is uh unaccustomed to being at the top of leaderboards knows what it’s

Like to get the job done I seem to think that he’s he’s just this damn good and not just from looking at the results but like just watching him I kind of got the same sense from a speed perspective he’s pretty much already in line with Sam

Burns was a little bit faster a little bit longer than Justin Thomas was really cool by the way and I think telling that he got the job done in that pairing you know it’s it’s not like he was paired with with two other you know uh guys who

Were trying to make a name for them himself he’s playing with two big-time stars on the tour and still got it done uh and then I think his putting was the most impressive thing to me even putts that he missed I think the first two putts he hit all day he didn’t quite

Have enough Pace to them certainly weren’t the kind of putts he wanted to make for the rest of the day it seemed like even the putts he missed were solid struck they were committed putting strokes and he had a lot of short ones not a single one like lipped in they

Were all just dead center back of the cup I I was really really impressed with him on the greens and I think that maybe makes him like a step ahead of of some of the other Elite talents that we’ve seen kind of break out over the last few

Years at such a young age yeah it seems like nowadays that people are so good te to green and if anything holds anybody back it’s their putting I me he knocked that one in to win on the last hole it was just I mean it was just as pure as

You could ever hope for especially given the situation um yeah and the other thing there is like in in five years or something he might have another 5 to 10 miles per hour ball speed where he’s sitting 190 and going above that like I we keep hearing about this wave of young

Guys that are going to come up and 185 is going to be the new or yeah 185 is going to be the new 175 for ball speed like dunet might be one of those guys already yeah I I don’t know if it’ll get that out of control because I think that

Golf in general figure out a way to um to kind of bring that back into one um but yeah it looks like he’s Prime for the future and I mean as a as a parent as a father of two boys as a it would be hard for me to not sit

Down and be like bro this is your time like let’s yeah you know I I don’t know what kind of family life he comes from or anything like that but I know what we come from and and nothing’s taken for granted and you’ve got a a real chance

To to make your mark at a really young age what did you think of Sam Burns and Justin Thomas Burns ends up falling outside of the top five so still other than the match play Victory last year not a single top five since the start of

Last season but did it feel to you like he was back in to some degree and same question about Justin Thomas yeah I mean he’s in my conversation for this week I think this next this week is maybe a little bit better Golf Course for him um

He’s proved that he can get into to get into the conversation here and compete here before I think you led right after 54 holes last year the year before when last year right when ran him down he had like a five shot lead and I think he

Shot 75 the last day um so I I think you’re going to from what I saw I I would be surprised to not see him contend again this week I I think I agree with that and I I think on on the Justin Thomas side of things it’s really interesting to kind

Of take a look at at his numbers now this is five straight really solid starts for him uh for anyone who plays Underdog best ball I’ve been doing a lot of those drafts recently I think Justin Thomas might be the most undervalued guy right now where I’m getting him the

Third maybe even early fourth rounds and he’s already showing signs that he’s like maybe a top five golfer again uh and the thing that I love is he’s been unbelievably good around the greens which whenever he’s been at his best like that’s always the thing he he maybe

Has the best short game in the world when he was really struggling last year the thing that was like the most concerning to me was my God he’s not even good around the greens right now which told me like there was maybe just a an element of self-doubt going on that

We hadn’t really seen from him that confidence seems all the way back his iron play has been great he’s even been putting well which was really kind of the start of his downfall you know we we talked so much with Scotty Sheffer about the idea that you know eventually if you

Put poorly enough for long enough kind of seeps into your long game that was really the case with Justin Thomas last year so the fact that the putter is also working I’m really really encouraged with his play I think more so than with the the bounce back from Sam Burns that

Being said does it surprise you that he wded from this week no because I I think that he was playing a number of these events early saying you know what I gotta like figure it out I got to get it going I want to make sure that I’m at my best when we

Get into the bigger tournaments and I think the fact that hewd kind of said he thinks you know what I’ve got it I’m back like I don’t I don’t need this other and he’s in Pebble into it he’s into Pebble as well I think he moved up

To top 25 in the world so even if he falls out of that top five of whatever this series is he’s still into Pebble so maybe this is just his week off and and we got word uh like an hour ago or something that uh he he is in to Riviera

As well so in the Genesis so I I think I think he feels like he accomplished everything he needed to do at this time of the Season he feels good to go and he’s just ready for the rest of the year and feels like he’s fully back yeah I I

There’s part of me I agree uh I I mean looking at the big picture um sometimes though when you struggle and you’re like oh man like I finally got it going you kind of want to ride that hot wave maybe he’s the exception of that rule especially considering this week is so

Hard both physically and mentally yeah with the I mean it’s been widely documented as one of the tougher walks of the year um I think it’s the longest course they play and it’s at sea level um so I I don’t disagree If he if he thinks that he’s got it figured out I

Just kind of look for him to be like all right I’m playing good finally anybody that’s been through a funk will tell you when you get out of it you just want to keep keep going so I think that’s fair but I mean in his last five events they’ve been September November December

January uh so it like he’s already played uh and and played quite well now for a sustained now he’s only playing once a month because of the schedule at this time of year but he’s sustaining the success so I don’t I don’t think he feels like it’s something that he just like

Has in a bottle right now and needs to keep that going I think he fully feels like he’s back to just being the Justin Thomas that was one of the best in the world for over a several year stretch yeah no I I don’t disagree at all and

Like I said I think this might be the rare exception to the rule where like I I’m okay with the week off I think you know if if it was something a little bit different um a different circumstance I’d probably be a little bit more

Critical of it but I think in it makes sense for everything um to just you know get some and get ready for next week he’s 32 to1 to win The Masters right now on FanDuel does that interest you at all because it’s got my interest I don’t know if I’m

Placing that bet just yet but uh I I do think that number is too high I would be surprised if when we get there he’s not more like 20 to 25 yeah I mean I think as far as pure value maybe yeah I because I think he will go down

Um but I think that I would be much more inclined to play at that number had he closed the deal out this this week um no matter how much better you feel like you’re playing I still need you to be able to win and and we’ll see he he

Basically had every opportunity this week I mean he was he looking back at it if you watched went back and rewatched the round like it’d be hard hard pressed to not say hey he should have won or at least been in a playoff to win that golf

Tournament you could kind of see that he felt that way too on the course like he he it seemed to me like he knew he was playing better than his results and that it it was like uh you know he he had two really bad approach shots on number five

And on number 11 so two par fives if you take those two shots away if you give him those two shots back just to Mulligans uh like uh many amateurs might go out and play with their buddies he probably does win the event with just those two shots back now of course you

Could say the same thing for Don lops T shot on seven things of that nature but uh he will certainly look back on that event and say you know what if I just could take those two shots over if I just executed those two shots I shoot

Three Strokes better I’m at 30 no one else is there I win the event well and they we talk about this a lot but those are high leverage shots and the fact that he hit bad shots and what he knows and every golfer knows is a high

Leverage shot it is kind of discerning to me like I just hope that he you know he figures that part of it out because that’s what I care about a lot of times is is how how you hit those shots when you know I mean like you said that’s a

Three two how people are going to often say how can two swings make up three shots but you know these second shots into par five you’re looking at two three even four shots difference of a good shot to a bad shot without question uh last last two guys I want to talk

About from this past week Daniel Berger Wills alator both coming back from an extended absence obviously Burgers was longer um the interesting part was tus is like even before he actually had to take time off his game was kind of in shambles whereas Burger was hurt when

His game was kind of a tiptop shape what did you think from watching those two guys did it feel like zotor took a big step forward and were you impressed with how solid Burger’s game was right away um I would although zotor and I I bet that matchup zotor over Burger I was

Extremely impressed with the way Burger came back I think he’s hitting his ball straight it’s still curving the direction that he knows it and wants it to curve but he’s sitting it straighter his iron shots just seem to be better um they even made a a comment on the

Broadcast about he’s not hitting it so flat that tells me that he’s going to be able to compete in a little bit firmer greens and that kind of situation um zalatoris I think is it’s just a good golf course for where he is

Right now for him y um I want no part of him this week because I don’t want him to hit it in this 4 inch wet rough and have to hack it out one time and hurt his back now that being said he’s liable to go hit 13 of 14 Fairways and stripe

Showed around this golf course I’m not going to take that away from him I’m just leaning into the shots that he did hit in the rough it’s going to not be as hard on the body as what it will be this week and and just with an overall more

Difficult walk and everything um I like the way he’s trending I don’t think that I’m in on him this week it’s funny I kind of take the opposite approach there where I think this is exactly the type of course that zotus can win just because it’s the type of course that you

Can ball strike to death and and really create that Advantage now is are we going to see him like return to that form of just dominating Fields with his ball striking I don’t know but I I think there’s enough of a chance that that will happen that at

Least like he’s one of the guys that I’m considering uh for my best but before we get into that let’s talk about course fit and one of the cool things is you know we’re always looking to kind of improve the way we present data and and all of that

Stuff we we changed the way we’re presenting the course fit results whereas you know in the past we were looking at weight so we would say you know driving distance is worth 20% over the overall projection this week the problem with that is it didn’t tell you about the overall predictive strength of

The model from one week to the next where you know one week 20% might have meant that it was contributing a little bit to the projection the next week 20% would mean it’s contributing a lot to the projection just because overall it’s better so what we’re now doing is

Looking at the predictive value of each metric relative to what we would expect so for example we have driving distance this week 48 a half% above expectation now what this means is that in a if you take like a a one stroke per round skill difference in driving distance you would

Assume that that results in a one stroke per round difference in expected Strokes gained for the week this time for every one stroke we’re expecting 1.4 85 Strokes uh better for zalatoris for any player um associated with a one uh one stroke per round difference in expected

Uh Strokes gain driving distance so it’s a better way to look at it and the course fit this week we know is super powerful because we’ve got driving distance 48 a half percentage points above expectation driving accuracy’s 15 percentage points below with an approach 13 percentage points above around the

Green 138 and a half percentage points above and putting 33.8 percentage points above so anytime we get the metrics All Above 0% or most of them above 0% we know okay at this golf course it’s really about talent I think a really good way

To look at it so let’s use that 34% on putting for example most of the time you know like for for any um Strokes gained difference any one stroke difference between one player and another there’s a certain level of talent gap between them right and what we’re saying is the

Talent Gap that’s usually associated with a one stroke difference is now associated with a 1338 stroke difference at Tory Pines because the the signal to noise ratio is just higher here it’s all about how good you are and not like just the randomness of golf so really really

Strong course fit model around the board I’m curious to hear from you Justin are you surprised that around the green is so predictive here and why do you think it might be as predictive as it is so my argument with the around the green stuff here is it’s so different than other

Golf courses um you know the thicker rough you’re it’s a different skill set of chipping than even chipping last week right where there was basically no rough y like you’re you’re hitting much different chip shots so like I I I know that it’s super valuable that that being

Said I’m not sure that this it’s the same players that are as good at this type of chipping as maybe where you the benefit of like the tight lie chipping where it’s much more difficult here it’s a much more of and I know people have heard me

Talk about this before it’s m much more bunker shot type of chipping you know you’re not going to see many people just like lay the sod over it embarrass themselves chipping I I think that this is a a really important discussion because I think it gets to the heart of why our

Model is a predictive one and not a descriptive one so basically when when we talk about predictive versus descriptive like if I were to say Hey you know it really seem seems like guys who do well here are guys who get up and down well at Tory Pines in that case

That would be descriptive because I’d be saying you know that’s what they do at this event and then I’d be implying that we want to look at the guys who are the best run the green what our model does instead is it it looks for the signal of

Who’s good at what and what skill sets translate into success here not necessarily what they do at Tory Pine specifically but what are their skill sets and what translates into success here so I I think your your point about like the the different type of R the

Green shots is a good one but it doesn’t change the fact that predictively around the green really shines here which I think gets to the heart of the conversation we’ve had a lot which is around the green might be the one uh skill set that tells us the most about

How good a player is at like managing his way around a golf course just the strategy of attacking a golf course in the right way making sure your misses are in in good spots where it’s fairly simple to get up and down you know maybe that’s hey this rough is extremely

Unpredictable if I’m in the rough I’m going to have trouble getting up and down so I want to make sure that if I miss this one it’s in the bunker where I know I can you know spin the ball get it uh up close things of that nature so

Really really interesting uh point there but I think it’s it’s an awesome one to talk through because conceptually like philosophically I think everything you said makes a lot of sense but mathematically we even have to consider that in this case because we know that around the green is predictively

Important here not just descriptively yeah and I think a lot of it for me though comes back to iron play of like exactly what you said like I’m gonna I’m gonna I would lean more to iron play here of what you know missing it in the

In the correct spots when they don’t hit good shots and and or don’t hit you know perfect shots I guess and so I think that’s a huge deal here and also like the you’re going to see a lot of guys Jason day type like your inside 5 feet

Putting here is is to me is something that’s just a huge deal because it’s one of those places that it’s not super tough to chip so to speak but it’s hard to chip it in the leather so you chip it to like the three four five foot range a

Lot um yeah in other words it’s just inevitable that you’re going to have a bunch of putts that test you kind of like you know the the putt that Dunlop pit to win you’re going to get that length of putt a lot whether they’re for birdie whether they’re to Safe par

There’s just nothing you can do to avoid getting that length of putt quite often yeah especially and I I haven’t really seen but especially if they get these greens a little bit firm at all um it just becomes more and more difficult you know just the grass type and and all of

That it’s just a it’s just a little bit more difficult you know especially coming out of the the overseed of lto where it’s just a little bit more predictable in my opinion moving on to the bets when when looking at the the guys I haven’t pulled

The trigger on any of these guys yet but I I’m very much considering them and I want to talk them through with you I don’t think there will be any surprises the first one is sah thala um if we look at where thala’s game is now so if you

Look at or again that course fit model we’ve got driving distance up this week driving accuracy slightly down well the gala gains about uh a third of a stroke per round with his driving distance loses about a third of a stroke per round with his driving accurac so he

Checks that box approach play it’s up a little bit but not much the Galla’s iron play has been improved all of a sudden he’s projected for a positive Strokes gain approach something that for a lot of his career to this point he’s actually been negative for us and he is

Tied for first with Jason day for the highest around the green projection in our model this week in this field slightly ahead of minu Lee and sunj im as well and then also one of the better p in this field so no surprise to me that he projects well for us he’s also

One of the higher volatility guys you we got the the wrong end of that volatility at the Sentry from him but uh I’m I’m very much happy to go right back to him and or not at the centry at the at the Sony when he for us um he actually

Played quite well at the sentury um but I think maybe this is the week where we get the Sentry style performance from him again instead of the Sony style performance uh so I think just great fit I love the volatility so to me he he strikes me as like everything I’m

Looking for in an outright bet we have him at 4.6% to win and he is uh let’s see what is his most recent number he’s 35 to one to win this event on DraftKings and FanDuel 33 on bmgm 33 on both bed rivers and bed 365 where you

Can also get the eways so I think that I’ll be uh betting sou the gala on both bet rivers and bet 365 taking advantage of those each white bets what do you think of those yeah I actually like him a lot and I think the the main the main

Reason I like him is because he has the ability to be a high spin guy with his irons too which I think is a big deal here um especially considering how long they can make this golf course play if they want you’re going to be hitting a

Lot more mid mid irons into these greens than than a lot of other places so I’m going to look for guys that are able to hit the ball high and spin it a little bit more um and he definitely fits that bill and I also like the way that he

Hits his short butts so I think you kind of combine that together I I 1,000% can see him competing here but I think that knowing that coming with that you know you know you’re going to get the volatility where he he may miss the cut

I don’t you know so um the guy that I like that’s kind of in that same range as the guy that I just missed an outright on last week in Europe is [ __ ] I think he hits Le he hits it really far he’s kind of underrated when he comes

Over here nobody really knows as much about him um has the has the the ability to to do the same thing hit the ball high with a lot of spin hits it you know like I said pretty far so uh he’s I think he’s in good form I hate the

Travel um everybody knows I’m always a proponent of how your body reacts of you know flying across the world so uh same idea I would guess he’s probably about the same number I haven’t even looked at numbers but he’s got to be right around that 30 to1

Area well let’s see exactly what he is Ron is he’s up at 60 to one so if you liked him in that same area you’re going to really like him at 60 yeah I I like the the point that you made about the the high span I think another important

Point with the gala and I actually meant to make this point when the in the course fit discussion one of the reasons why I think around the green play is is so emphasized this week is because guys are going to miss more greens so one of the difficulties with Strokes gain

Around the green is in a typical event like think of this past week guys just don’t get that many chip shots they don’t get tested that often because most of the time Fairway green putt you know you have to make a mistake to to have a Chip Shot whereas at a more demanding

Golf Course like this you’re just going to be tested more of there so in a typical event the more theala has to use his short game it’s like yeah when he uses his short game he gains on other people but most of the time when he uses

His short game it’s only because he just lost to the field with his either driving accuracy or approach play this week he’s in situations where he can gain with his short game without having lost in his long game so I think it’s another reason why he really jumps to

The Forefront this week and why he run the green as a whole just has such this such a magnified weight this week it’s because typically it’s just not utilized that often at least when somebody is playing well now you do get some some exceptions to that rule like we talked

About at the century a lot of the time uh short game there isn’t about saving pars it’s about making birdies on on the shorter par fours or the or the the par fives things of that nature but I think I think that’s a a really key Point as

To why it matters so much this week and not just that it matters but it can it can really translate into winning and not just you know getting through the cutline or something like that um next guy for me again not a surprise Keegan Bradley bet this guy all the damn time

We’ve got him at 3.6% to win so interesting we have him less likely to win than theala and his number is actually a little bit shorter uh he’s he’s 33 to1 most places but if you want the each way you got to go down to 30 to

One um so in that sense I I definitely like it less than the thala bet but I do still see value where’re again we have him at 3.6% to win I believe that his uh his true odds or his implied odds are like like 2.7% so definitely still some

Wiggle room there of value what do you think of Keegan this week and how much do you factor in like his splits on difficult golf courses where he does seem to play his best golf no I like Keegan a lot obviously we talk about him

A lot on the show and he’s one of the ones that that the books always seem to be behind on in my opinion so uh I like his fit here obviously can move it uh hits it far hits it high uh you know the the concerning part would be his putting

Um but that being said he’s shown that on the weeks where it’s good it’s really good the problem is the weeks that it’s bad it’s really bad so as long as you get him on one of those weeks where it is really good and he continues to make

All his short ones then he obviously can contend here and we we talked um I believe it was last week actually about the fact that for Keegan like this has always been true when he putts well he contends when he doesn’t you know you you can kind of get any result from him

We made the point that uh we actually like heard them talking about this on the broadcast that his caddy said you know he’s really turned putting into his strength like they don’t believe that he’s on a hot streak with this putter they believe that he is now a good

Putter and his past struggles are just behind him doesn’t mean they’re not going to come back doesn’t mean that he’s not going to have events where he putts poorly like he did at the entry but more often than not like the expectation for him now is that he’s

Going to putt well that he’s going to make crucial putts and that’s the thing that I think people in sports books are the slowest to adjust to um where we now have Keegan for example projected for 28 Strokes per round gain with his putter that’s right with Harris English

That’s just behind sah theala it’s just behind Eric Cole and minwu Lee it’s above Sun JM it’s above L AAR Oar um so like we We Believe that he’s a really good putter now and and that’s part of why he’s consistently projecting well for us and then like theala as well his

Volatility is it’s a feature not a bug for him where like you might be turned off to him if you’ve telled us every single time that we suggest either betting on him or using him on DraftKings because when it goes bad it can go bad and he can he can ruin

Otherwise really good DFS lineups but man that volatility also is the reason why he can contends as often as he does it’s the reason why he can win an event with a field as strong as The Travelers last year when he won it’s why you know

He can contend um you know a few weeks ago when it didn’t feel like he had his best stuff for a lot of it and then you know he’s still at the very top of the leaderboard at the Sony Open wasn’t able to get it done but it it

Showed yet again why we like betting on this guy I think I’ll be doing it again this week here and uh Josh has these great splits of you know how a guy plays in difficult conditions verus tough conditions there aren’t a ton of splits that I care about like I I don’t care

About green surface or any of that I think difficult versus easy courses is one that I believe in in large part because I think personally I’m a much better golfer on difficult courses than easy courses and then I think wind splits are another good one to look at Keegan’s um Keegan’s difficult Golf

Course split is really strong so I that’s like an added thing but then I also I don’t want to double count that too much because I think that also will show up in the course fit Model A lot where the difficult golf courses are more likely to show driving and around

The green being important yeah see I’m going to lean in I agree wholeheartedly I but like a week like this week I’ll probably lean into to more like a guy like Jason day and hope he goes overlooked just because of his you know he’s a little bit higher

Price tag DFS I’m not sure what his outright is but like it just seems like man I can’t stand the junk he’s wearing he looks hideous on the um but he he uh like he he seems to have it figured out and be in a little

Bit better spot than what he has been in previous years and and once again I’ve always kind of thought of and I don’t know I don’t have any numbers to back this up but I always feel like he’s just kind of always played better in a little bit more difficult spots especially

Where you know your your short game and then your you know four to sixf Footers really really shine I so I think that’s fair um I will say Jason day’s betting price is is higher he’s best available 25 to1 um we have him with slightly worse odds to win

Than Keegan where I could definitely agree with you is in the DFS streets if if we get like you know Keegan projecting for let’s say 15% and Jason day projecting for 5% that could absolutely be enough to to swim me to the Jason day side um but we’ll see what

That ownership looks like once it comes out we’ll hopefully have that either tonight or early tomorrow morning typically I’d run the first run like two Tuesday afternoon to Tuesday night with the with the Wednesday start this week we will try to get that out as early as

Possible um we can really dive in sooner than later on all the course fit stuff um the next bet I want to talk about is Wills alatus I alluded to this earlier I think this is just the type of golf course that really fits him and I think

His price which let me get this right is now 55 to one on BET Rivers where you’re also getting the each way like to me this price says this is a guy coming back from injury this is a guy searching for his game and it does not leave open

The possibility that he he really got back on track last week and can take that next step back to the the golfer that we’ve been accustomed to seeing from Wills alot Tores you remember he was in contention here year ago this is absolutely a golf course that fits him

When he’s on his game I just think this 55 number does not include the possibility that he’s not necessarily even 100% back just 90% of the way there in which case he could absolutely make a run at this win yeah I don’t disagree at all I my take is different this week is

Whereas I’m gonna look for some regression this week a because the physicality of the golf course and the walking um and then you know playing for for a few weeks in a row I’m GNA hope that that he gathers a lot of of people doing just like you’re doing and then

You know he doesn’t play very well so that I can get him a better at a better number next time out um that’s just the way that I think of it because of the physicality of of in the situation um you know I would like him a lot I would

If he would have done this let’s say the Sony and that you know and played the way he played last week at the Sony on a little bit more difficult Golf Course looked like he was back and then taken last week off and not played at all and

Come back this week then I’d be like all right I’m in on zator here it’s just the situational of the weeks in a row and and this you know if he can hit high quality Iron shots into these greens and still have to rely on a short game and

I’m just not sure that I’m ready for uh for that kind of stress I I absolutely agree with you there I think his his lack of a strong short game is definitely the biggest uh cause of concern for me now the the flip side of that argument I think potentially why

He’s a better outright bet than he has a DFS play is because if things go his way if he’s ball striking the the way that we know he’s capable then there’s going to be less Demand on his short game because he’s just going to be hitting so

Many more greens than most of the field and then the other thing is on on holes where so many guys are fighting to save par he’s giving himself birdie looks and importantly those birdie looks 15 feet something like that are from a range where he’s much much better than he is

From like 5 feet to 10 feet things of that nature so I I feel feel like the the around the green aspect is absolutely a major major concern fully agree with you there but I think that if things are going his way if he’s playing well in other words like the better he

Plays the better of a fit he is for this golf course which to some degree is just like a duh that isn’t that true for everybody but not necessarily because the better he plays the more he’s avoiding his biggest weakness and the more he’s leaning into the part of his put

That is strongest which is you know when when speed is more important than the line which you get once you’re outside of like 10et yeah for sure I was just looking at his trying to find his price on DraftKings um 8,000 okay yeah yeah and bur right right

Beside burger at 8100 um yeah I he it’s just an interesting it’s an interesting spot for him and and I get it like trying to be ahead we talk about it all the time time of trying to be ahead and it’s a chance to be ahead

Because if he goes out and plays the way let’s say he doesn’t even win but goes out and plays a way that we know he’s capable of playing and he finishes fourth we’re not seeing a 55 to one again maybe ever it there’s I don’t I don’t see a spot

Where he is you know any better than say 30 to1 ever in any field so a non-elevated event you get 55 to1 I’m not arguing with it I just my take is that I think this is the wrong place for him for for where he’s at physically I

Hope he proves me wrong because I really like will and I hope he gets back to form um but yeah definitely could see if he if he came out and and striped showed it and and had a chance to win on Sunday I wouldn’t be surprised at all on the

DFS side of things it sounds like you haven’t been able to look through I mean pricing came out like an hour ago for anyone uh watching like we’re recording this Monday at 3 o’ so um pricing has only been out for an hour or two but is

There anyone that you can kind of see developing into a core play for you this week Alex SMY is like 7200 the first person I saw uh I think he has a course record on the North Course um I think he is has the potential to be Elite Talent

U he’s he showed up and been in contention he’s just got to figure it out and when he figures it out I don’t know what it is I mean that’s the the golden question right that we ask all the time but when he figures it it out I

I can see him winning multiple times in a year and I think this would be a really good spot for that to start I agree with that I I’m not sure there’s anyone who really strikes me as a core play uh the guys who project the best just from like an expected Strokes

Gained standpoint for their price Keegan fala both up there but they’re both so volatile that I want to wait to see ownership on them like if if either of them is super popular I’m going to be less likely to call them a Court play if they’re contrarian and they project this

Well like that’s the type of contrarian upside and risk that I want in my lineups so I would then lean into those guys the the final thing that I’ll say is once again we do seem to have a top five at least a top two in Xander and

Klay where their top five odds are just so much higher than everybody else’s that it’s gonna be really really difficult for them to be um so popular that I don’t want to use at least one of them uh what’s your thought on the top of the board are you more likely to just

Build like a really balanced lineup this week uh I’ll be interested and I haven’t I haven’t dove in too far um it it’s going to be an ownership deal for me I think uh e even the single entry stuff I still try to kind of see where everybody

Else is I I actually could see myself being like Jason day being my big pay up there because I think he’s going to be so low owned for his price and build around that um you know we were the other person that I that I was thinking about that

We’ve we’ve kind of touched on a little bit but he’s not he’s not overly volatile is is Michael Kim he’s a local to to that area um so and he’s kind of showed some form um I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play well this week

Uh in a pretty reasonable price tag 73 or 7,400 before we get into the oneandone conversation um I meant to lead off the show with this but the giveaway that we are doing we have decided to push back to next week reason being we’ve got this Wednesday start this week we just have

Too much to do over the next couple days to get this done uh this week but we’re going to make it a little bit easier for you easier for you guys um all you have to do is like any of the YouTube shows so far this season you could do this one

You could do previous ones whatever and then follow ftn Fantasy on Twitter you do those two things you’re in the running if you want some bonus credit you can make things even easier on us by hey send me a DM on Twitter send me a DM

In Discord or just you know tag me on Twitter whatever um if you have like a different YouTube username and a different Twitter handle then you do in chat or whatever and uh it would be helpful to us if you just let us know that hey I’m this on YouTube I’m this on

Twitter I’ve been a subscriber for however long or even if you haven’t been a subscriber whatever that will also help us out and will’ll give you extra entries in the drawing again that’s a free short game lesson with Justin a free long game lesson with me both of

Those things up for grabs so definitely get into the giveaway Justin let’s dive in the oneandone this week we did better last week with the JT Poston pick obviously haven’t gotten the win that we’re looking for just yet um do you want to stick with the strategy of hey

We’re not at the elevated events yet we we’ve got a lot less money up top so let’s stay contrarian and let’s leave the the big guns if you will for later events or do you want to take a more aggressive approach this week um I think

There’s kind of a happy medium to him I think especially like the fact that we’re we’ve alluded to the fact that we’re going to use live guys for the majors right so so you know that that only leaves us x amount of elevated event with x amount of elevated players so to speak

Um I think there’s a happy medium I I’m awfully disappointed in posting Sunday because I felt like he was in a spot to really make a run and I’m not saying that he could have won but he definitely could have got into the top five he he definitely if he had had the

Type of Sunday that he had the week prior he would have been right there in the mix he might not have gotten it done but he would have been yet another name putting pressure on the guys up top yeah and so um as far as this week goes you

Know we haven’t you know obviously being Monday we haven’t got a chance to really dive into it as much as we usually do and talk about about as much as as we’d like um you know the guy that I’ve talked about already a lot is Jason day

I wouldn’t be opposed to to to playing a guy like Jason day here because I don’t see I don’t see him ever being that guy that we wish we had in an elevated event albe it I think he’s going to be I think you know he’s a bigger name in this

Field that’s an interesting one uh let’s look at how how he’s done of late he was so good for such a long stretch last year like especially through uh this time of season and into the early spring leading into the Masters things of that nature he hasn’t been the same

Golfer since now he is showing some signs played better at the century played pretty well this past week in fact at the American Express the actually the thing that kept himatic contention was his putter which we obviously know like that’s going to bounce back Jason day going to figure it

Out on the greens uh so I I definitely don’t hate this call um the thing that I would say with him is I I think there is a decent chance that if he starts playing the way he was playing at this time last year that we would really want

Him at some elevated events and I I also feel like um we’d be able to see that happening where we might be able to still get him at low ownership but we’re seeing much better form from him now I still think it’s a really solid pick uh

The the guy that I’ll nominate first is Keegan Bradley no surprise there I like the win Equity I like the fact that at these like at these non-elevated events I think it’s even more whenn or doesn’t matter than than most like in an elevated event if you get a fourth place

Finish that’s still going to help you out right if you get a second place finish that’s still going to be great if you don’t get the win here it kind of doesn’t matter so the fact that Keegan could miss this cut just really doesn’t B bother me to the point that it would

In other events so he’s my top selection and we have like I said earlier we have Keegan slightly more likely to win than Jason day so the fact that I think we’re also more likely to take or more likely to want Jason day sometime in the future

Uh is is potentially a reason to lean Keegan this week yeah so and I have this preconceived notion right of just what I’ve known being around for so long is I love Keegan on the East Coast like I just always feel like he’s in East Coast like that’s where he seems to

Shine is in the Northeast and that’s just where he seems to play better and I always feel the same way about Jason day on the west coast I always just for some reason I’m like hey I expect him to play better and I think last year showed it I

Think he played better early in the year when he was on the west coast than than when it transitioned to Florida um or even anywhere in the east coast for that being said so I think that I like I really like Keegan here I just in my

Mind I always think of him of somebody like hey we need him at you know at TPC Boston or Travelers or you know like someplace in that area that’s not an elevated event that so and like I said that’s just the fact that it just seems like that’s the way that I’ve always

Noticed everything and the way it happens um I it’s it’s a really hard field this this week in my opinion because if you don’t play a Jason day or a Keegan Brad in that range we don’t have a theala to play like it you almost are either

Punting and playing a you know a guy way down that’s you know a 50s 60s 70s guy or you just go ahead and pay up and play like a shle and just say hey I’m counting on your you know your top two is so much better than everybody else

I’m gonna lean on one of you to you know whether it be him or can’t lay and say I’m going to lean on one of you two to get me a w this week to getting contention it’s interesting you say that because my next one is actually shafley

And it’s it’s kind of exactly what you just said there so for some context we’ve got we’ve got K morawa third at 6.1% to win Klay at 7% shafley is like kind of in his own tier at 10.4% to win I don’t think we’ll see shafley at this

Uh this win Equity very often this year we might see him at this number um in some other non-elevated events if he plays those but we certainly won’t see him over 10% to win an elevated event unless of course he starts winning and playing even better and you know he just

Rises the ranks and and goes up and up and up in our projections but if he’s this same player throughout the season we won’t see this win equity for him and I think that enough people are are going to say you know what I want to save

Shafley kentley morawa that we could get him at really low ownership and I think that that is it’s evid by the fact that you know last week let’s let’s actually bring up some of the ownership from last week and and take a look at that um so we

Had Klay 3.9% shafley 2.7% this past week we had Sheffer 0.3% so people really aren’t going to the top this early everyone kind of has this same thought process so uh I think that my rankings would actually be shley one Keegan 2 and then I’d go to Jason

Day yeah and and the other thing is like it’s not like we’re playing 30 elevated events like we’re gonna have enough good players yep that and and the other thing is a lot of those we’re going to look for even more win Equity because basically win Equity what we’re looking

For is really low rounds right the guys that really go out and take it so you know I I’d be okay playing you know a little a few more volatile players at the elevated events trying to get that win equity and taking a guy like sha

Here and trying to leverage the field of getting the guy that’s you know projections wise the clear-cut favorite yeah I’m also not sure that people realize just how good shley has been like his his performance at the Tour Championship for example was phenomenal it was good enough to win a

Lot of major championships if not most major championships havin just went nuclear uh and you know he he ran into some buzs saws at that time but he’s been unbelievably good and and consequently like he’s somebody who if you looked at basically any point in time over the last couple years he was

In line with Klay or slightly behind Klay in our projections across the board he has now surpassed Klay and and not by just a little bit he’s he’s also like a full quarter of a stroke per round better in our projections which is a large larger difference than Klay to

Morawa again which is second to third place so I think people aren’t quite aware of just how much better shle has been and how high his win Equity is this week I’d really like to use him this week and what him done yeah I I’m gonna

Tend to lean that way just because you know my point was that you just can’t it doesn’t seem like there’s much there’s much Middle Ground here you know Jason day would be my off the you know but even he’s not that far down and to be

Honest like if you got a chance to get shle at this same or even less ownership than than somebody like Jason day here obvious I think it’s a good chance to maybe try to to move up the board at somebody that you get the best player to

Low ownership it just seems like the right thing to do yeah and obviously like we don’t want to make a final decision because we want to look at what ownership projections for DFS look like and what we can learn from that for example last week we were pretty much

Locked in on Poston on the show then he becomes one of the more popular if not the most popular DFS options and we kind of went back and forth we ended up sticking with him which I think was the right decision like the other guy we

Could have gone to was Cam Davis who boy was he a disappointment again um so were better off with Poston than Davis not that not that it would mattered a ton but um the thing about the shafley pick is like if if we were leaning towards

Keegan or day there’d be a chance that hey ownership comes out for DFS and it’s like ah crap these guys might be a little bit more popular in one onone than we expected I really don’t see that happening on in one and done even if shafley projects as the highest owned

DFS player I think what we saw last week like Scotty sheffler was 30% owned on DraftKings he was 3% in one andone because people don’t want to use the superstars this early so I think no matter what we’re going to get shle at level ownership yeah I agree I agree

Completely and I think that you know that’s kind of the Trap that we fell into there at one point is we’re worried so much about it and then I think there’s so many so many people that have an idea of what they’re doing that the ownership comes out pretty even and and

A lot lower for as many people that are involved you’re not going to see I honestly think the only time we’re going to be eating chalk all year is going to be at the majors and I think that’s because everybody’s gonna kind of do what we’re doing yeah I agree and the

The final point I’ll make there is I think there’s there’s also a sense of like um because because this is like the the pat Mayo open it’s it’s his contest in a way so much of ownership can be almost projected by just like watching his show and listening and and so there’s there’s

A ton of overlap between the DFS contests and the one and done where like we can really kind of treat them as this connected type of game and part of that too is the fact that more and more of the field is using Game Theory and not

Just picking who their favorite is but really trying to anticipate who everybody else is using kind of going a different way so once again I think like the the only the only route that we can know we’re being contrarian is is going with the the structural contrarian play

As well as somebody who can be contrarian and choffle fits those boxes the final thing I’ll say on choffle is I I think anybody hesitant to make a pick like that would think well what if what if you get like the the sheffler result from this past week where he doesn’t

Even make it in the in the top five let alone win at such a lower event like you just spoiled the best player in golf when you know someone is likely to win an elevated event with him as their pick and you just lost three and a half

Million dollars to that player or something and I think that’s true but there’s also the the potential outcome where he doesn’t have a win this year outside of maybe the event that you take him and you get that win and you get that big Advantage early and then there’s also this like just

Added bonus of if you’re ahead of the game early on you can be chalkier throughout the rest of the season so uh it’s not like we’re using Rory or Sheffer this week if we go to shley but I I really think that just from a from a mathematical standpoint especially like

This is as sound as it gets to use a really low- owned guy who Head and Shoulders above everybody else in inequity well and if you went to Vegas right now and said hey I need an over under on the amount of wins that CH

Is gonna have this year what is it gonna be one and a half maybe might be 0. five yeah or or one so completely I mean so if you Sophie you get the win out of him this year like people think that he’s going to go win

Six times or whatever and we’re going to miss out on this deal like could he win six times yet I guess but is it likely absolutely not he’s more likely to win zero than he is six yep yeah three wins in 2022 zero last year like that’s just how

That’s the nature of the PGA Tour it’s really really difficult to win Sheffer could win zero times this year especially if he doesn’t figure out that putting which is a a a conversation we had last week a really good one I’m sure we’ll return to it the next time he’s in

The field we don’t need to rehash that one now but yeah I think the the point is you can’t count on wins and so like it it’s unfair to say oh we’re going to want shle later because even if he wins this week he can end up winning another

Sure maybe but maybe he doesn’t have a top five Sam who would have guessed last year that Sam Burns wouldn’t have a single top five finish let alone not having a win outside of the match play so uh golf is really unpredictable when you have this much win Equity at low

Ownership I think it’s a solid play yep I’m in awesome all right I think that’ll do it so we will we’ll post some of the details again about the giveaway that this week again it’s super easy to get in just like this video like any of the

YouTube shows so far this season for Prov Pro follow ftn Fantasy on Twitter and again if you want to reach out to us just help us connect the dots of Who’s Who on on YouTube and on Twitter that will help us out and it will give you extra entries into the drawing so

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