Make Colonial Country Club great again with our PGA DFS preview & best bets for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge!
Does Scottie Scheffler (3-1) dominate following his arrest, or will Collin Morikawa (12-1) make the most of the opportunity in Texas?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for Fort Worth, Texas, on “The 19th Hole (S4 E20).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:02:28 Scottie Scheffler Arrest Reaction
00:04:47 What Are We Drinking?
00:06:35 PGA Championship Reaction
00:14:05 Caddie Notes: Colonial Country Club Breakdown
00:23:10 Club Twirls: 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets
00:45:10 No Trunk Slams: 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge DFS Core Plays & Fades
01:03:40 Final Picks + The Hat Pick
01:06:19 Plugs & Outro
🔗 Useful Links:
📺 Want more live shows & clips? Subscribe to our YouTube channel at Youtube.com/@IBT_Media
💻 For written PGA DFS & PGA betting advice, check out our website at https://In-Betweenmedia.com
💰 Get in on the action with our PGA betting & DFS partner, DraftKings. Sign up, bet $5 & get $200 in bonus bets instantly at https://bit.ly/ibtdraftkings.
✖️ Follow the hosts of the program on Twitter/X:
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the 19th hole we are live on in between media make sure you like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell for notifications the PGA Championship was quite the storyline Builder we got Xander shafley who actually can close great job Xander proved me right love that for love that Journey for us the gold medalist does know how to close PGA champion and uh it has officially been more recent that Scotty sheffler stretched and warmed up in a jail cell before shooting 66 when I did that that was just on the front nine we’re going to move on to Colonial one of my favorite golf courses because we’ll have some Carnage Connor standing by let’s hit it [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] oh hey I should probably add Connor to the mix here there he is I’ve arrived good evening everyone Royal’s here Tim’s here everybody in the house I’ll let Connor do the back end here because I’m just discombobulated I’m not going to be much better I just sat down too so here we go let’s go special hump day edition of the 19th Hole tomorrow we’re going to H have a morning tea time at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth Texas uh Conor how are you doing buddy I mean other than being completely discombobulated like myself Chelsea’s got the puns there you go the back end and rear end ironically not the same thing this time all plays the same doesn’t it yeah um yeah how am I doing uh I’m pretty good I could have could have had a few uh few better bets last week Bryson was right there for me which was nice did you catch any cases I didn’t over the weekend although I definitely uh definitely made an attempt a couple of nights it was uh little little touch and go I mean I pull around traffic all the time especially when the cop’s telling me not to yeah mine mine was more uh bar Centric than traffic Centric but hey yeah well uh poor went out for that Louisville cop that uh decided to play Hangman on Scotty’s marked Lexus PGA courtesy vehicle while wearing bright yellow rain gear he looked more like the Gorton’s fisherman than a light than a peace officer trying to uphold traffic control at the gates of Valhalla no no body cam footage uh oh yeah really convenient that he marked that there was but when if they found out that he was obviously in the wrong oh it’s mysteriously gone yeah it was wild and what was more like what was more crazy was for seriously like two hours I had no idea that there was a ality and like and that was the whole reason for the traffic backup too which like man I mean in a lot of ways kind of feel like they owe it to that volunteer to like maybe give them a little bit of something on on this broadcast this weekend or something I mean there was just hard to find information so mhm yeah so when it’s raining in the dark and you have a guy in a yellow rain jacket yelling at you to stop your vehicle just keep going man just keep going just keep going so if he didn’t stop that that cop no chance he knows who it is no chance he catches up with him and Scotty warms up as normal not in jail I I’m still like blown away that nobody like nobody immediately put two and two together that that was Scotty sheffler like well no they they arrested him immediately because of the the guy ate [ __ ] destroyed his pants Beyond repair obviously that cop has never watched golf in his life like I can pick I could pick Scotty up maybe it’s we’re gonna talk about oxay batia we seen OE batia ruin pants Beyond repair we’ve we also seen Tom Kim do it in the swamps in a practice round so yeah and $80 pants I mean maybe may maybe the department could cover that but who knows oh we digress but uh what are you drinking uh I am polishing off uh last little bit of this Buffalo tra that’s some good stuff yeah so I wanted I wanted to have more time to go get something new so next week next week I will have a new bottle of something Viva Mexico I’m I’m drinking a bottle of Pacifico CL Pacifico with Lon Leon yep put it down in there let it float question do you drink Corona nope this is better no for sure it is I had a buddy this is uh in high school that used to drink nothing but Corona with a lime salt and grenadine and it was like the goofiest looking drink ever but delicious I’m not advocating that you should walk around with a pink beer but I’m just saying it was delicious that’s what it takes to make Corona drinkable yeah salt lime and grenadine to any beer would be pretty good right I mean that’s sounds delicious yeah just most of the time it’s in a brown brown tinted glass so you wouldn’t be any of the wiser yeah I mean that’s that’s the thing about Corona is it’s in a clear bottle so it gets skunky immediately in the sun uh Pacifico and other Mexican beers are smart they put it in Amber bottle so guess what doesn’t get skunky and you don’t have to add a bunch of stuff to it to make it taste good my friend was not so popular with the ladies carrying that drink they call that orina Deo over there I think the only thing worse was guys that used to put uh Jolly Ranchers and smear off ice yeah I mean that’s one way or zema guess it was zema that’s one way to kill your pancreas does it come with an insulin shot God some days I probably need it um yeah so outside of that no uh awesome tournament last week I finally finally got a loaded Leaderboard on Sunday finally got like a hot competition like I couldn’t take my eyes off the TV I watched all easiest major relative to par of all time and that’s only because it rained two days in advance like that Valhalla needs to be dried out August PGA for it to be tough because it got rained on and it got it was like target practice I will say though that week on week we’re talking about how these courses should play tougher I’m really starting to wonder that I I’m with you Valhalla should have played tougher if it was dried out it would have been tougher would it have been seven eight Strokes tougher I don’t know like I’m starting to wonder if these courses like was are just getable by a lot of the field I mean well and that’s the thing is I don’t think that they’re going about it the right way rolling the golf ball back doesn’t really do anything other than reduce distance we’ve seen tough courses like Colonial play to 7200 yards and eat these guys alive you know why because you can’t just bomb it over the trees here you have to be able to hit it ball straight or at least curve it where the Fairway goes plan your shots accordingly Valhalla was not a planner’s golf course you could bomb and gouge there and when you were close enough for wedge distance because okay well all I have to do is hit it high enough so where if I’m hitting out of the rough I’m not going to have as much spin you just hit a ball straight up in the air it’s going to land soft because it rained and all these guys are able to hit the ball really high when they want to and that’s all it had to do and it was just birdie Central there were people hulling out from all over the place chip bins uh wedge shots long irons I mean Scotty on the first hole on Thursday from 170 hits a one hopper right in the jar and welcome back Daddy that was sweet though I was what a shot I was just like you got to be kidding what a shot that’s Scotty for you and his first hole on Friday morning when he got released from jail birdie like roll out of bed birdie one of the toughest holes on the golf course number one like that this guy isn’t he’s not real is he he’s not human he’s he does look like a bit of a character so maybe but I mean I I defended Xander shley last week on both shows this one and the and the betting Pros podcast and I mean you got it you got to hand it to him what a what a Sunday for Xander to really come through and keep his foot on the gas because Bryson was Bryon was on a charge I just want I wanted Bryson so bad because Bryson I Bryson is in a lot of ways what we need in golf like Xander’s just like another Scotty sheffler like it’s just not exciting to watch him win Bryson fist bumping running around getting the crowd involved like that it was a hype fest going on on Sunday I I was enjoying the [ __ ] out of Bryson talk about a total reversal in in his public Persona oh I love the guy yeah two years ago couldn’t even stand to listen to the guy talk because it’s just like blah blah blah it’s science [ __ ] I’m going to play all same length irons I’m G to do everything scientific and bulk up and hit the long drives and still have no short gam still can’t win anything and two years before that he couldn’t lose because guess what he was just play out there playing golf having fun it wasn’t fun when he was doing his scientist stuff and now he’s on the live tour and he’s having fun again and you see a guy with that much talent like immense Talent having fun with the game he goes out there on Sunday and damn near wins the thing and I found myself rooting for him especially when he made the turn and he tossed that ball to the kid in the crowd and uh dumb [ __ ] grownup wannabe Manchild intercepts it and runs off he got a good distance sprinted yeah he was out of there like bad out of hell and ryson flagged him down and he did the Walk of Shame right back gave the kid the golf ball that he was deserved and I hope that guy rots in hell yeah what a douchebag yeah that’s that’s like what’s that guy hample the the guy that shags balls at batting practice at baseball games like dude get a life yeah well certainly don’t intercept a ball from a kid man that’s that’s the stuff that like changes changes and influen his kids and I mean that’s that’s kind of the rule at a baseball game you catch a foul ball or a home run you give it to the nearest kid by and in a golf tournament I’m guessing if you if a golfer tosses you a ball you should give it to a kid not like this one’s obviously headed for a kid and he’s out of there like oh this is my golf ball blah blah blah it’s like that is the ultimate low like you you hit rock bottom as a person when you do that yeah I mean what a scumbag best case scenario Bryson wins and you sell it on eBay for a hundred bucks I mean get out of here yeah your ticket to the event costs more than that yeah best case scenario so dumb so dumb but the last thing I wanted to say about last week we about ready to stick a fork in bright uh Brooks the uh major killer we about ready to be done saying that I mean until further notice we have no choice God he’s just de out of sorts man he can’t make putts consistently like his putting was better than it was at Augusta but it wasn’t good enough like it was was tied for 26 come on man that’s that’s the PGA and I guess because it wasn’t as tough as we all laid it out to be it wasn’t a grind Fest it wasn’t a Brooks Kea special where the tougher it gets the better he plays it was too easy and so everybody’s just passing him up because this dude couldn’t sink a birdie to save his life if he would look he looked like calling morawa out there most of the time morawa just did it on Sunday morawa looked amazing until Sunday couldn’t make a putt and all his putts on Sunday looked great they just didn’t go in Brooks kepka look like that for three of the rounds and and that’s what happens is if you don’t make birdies and everybody else is making them you ain’t gonna win yeah po pour one out for Brookie at least for the uh yeah let’s hope the US Open is a little tougher we shall see I’m not I I guarantee you I won’t be running anywhere to bet him n there’s too many good golfers I mean that’s the the highlight of the week of AA isn’t how easy the horse played it’s how many great ones Rose to the top that was fun that was that was must see TV on Sunday 100% yeah like I said I was glued to it I mean I I could not get up I was it was a gorgeous day out I I could have been floating in the pool I was I was glued to the couch on a beautiful day because that’s how good the golf was no we were a bunch of us were out uh out at the bar just pound and beers staring at the screen look like look like a bunch of monkeys like somebody just showed us fire oh yeah I’m sure that was exactly what it looked like and the and the noises were like oh yeah gutural yeah there was there was a lot of hatred for Xander floa around it was I love Xander I don’t care what you say how about we dig into a really nice golf course this is a historic Golf Course Byron uh Byron Nelson and Ben Hogan love this golf course if Ben Hogan likes the golf course I like the golf of course uh let’s get into the caddy notes so Connor can wax poetic about Colonial Country Club [Music] let’s address Royal’s question real quick I actually think it was his decision making except for his mistake on 10 which nearly cost him uh his decision making on what shots to hit when I think was better I don’t know that that three-wood out of the trap on uh how was that 14 that then he was like buried in the rough and could have caught a flyer out of there I don’t know what I was going to say is I don’t think he got in his own head I think no he was he was much more relaxed yeah I and I think he knew that he had to make birdies where last the week before that Quil Hollow it was survival like Rory was Rory was so hot that it was no chance in you either way Xander could have shot 65 on Sunday at qua Hollow and still wouldn’t have won the problem was at uh Quail Hollow you were looking to survive and make pars and it got in his head where he got too conservative and then he was almost too aggressive at at Valhalla and and almost cost him but I think just being able to be consistent and to not make those Bon head choices uh most of the time like the his decision on 18 that shot with the with his feet in the bunker unbelievable in the difficulty Factor like that’s a shot that like you could hook it so far left that you leave yourself an impossible up and down and then you’re looking at like I’m not even going to be in the playoff if I hit that bad shot but he hit the perfect spot to get up and down pretty easily and and make that birdie uh hats off to Xander that was incredible way to finish and Bryson Bryson tipped his cap that was that was one hell of a way to win a credit where credits due like Xander finally kept it together and closed out a tournament and you know I I think you got to respect good play he played well four days in a row he deserved a win he got the win um but yeah I think I I hope it’s I hope it’s foreshadowing of things to come with Xander because if he can just keep it all together four days in a row he’s he’s probably in my opinion the top three best players in the world I mean he’s just incredibly so consistent throughout the entire bag yeah and it’s unfortunate he’s not here at Colonial because guess what you’re goingon to need to be pretty consistent throughout the bag here too um Connor Colonial Country Club not long it’s pretty short by tour standards but guess what it’s more often than not single digits under par wins this damn thing I don’t think we’re going that low or that high this year but I think you’re right that they’ve changed some things to make it a little more member friendly yeah like removal of some trees and flattening the green complexes yeah so Charles Schwab challenge Colonial Country Club Fort Worth Texas par 70 7289 yards Bermuda Fairways bent grass greens um yeah it’s been the tournament’s actually the longest running tournament on tour it’s been played here since 1946 home to the horrible horseshoe holes three four and five which are argu ably uh again probably top three hardest three hole stretch on tour maybe possibly the hardest at least if you look at the bogey rate on them which is car fors man God 20% or better bogey rate on all three of those holes that’s insane it seems tough but yeah Colonials Titan tree lined uh super tiny greens these are some of the smallest greens that the that you see on tour all year uh accuracy is absolutely critical given that accuracy uh you need off the TA to St stay in the Fairway distance has not really been much of a weapon here not to say that having distance and shot shaping ability can’t help you it’s just not needed um you’re not going to overpower this place uh it’s more of a strategic um approach second shot type of course so um and you need to be good from pretty much all distances if you look at the mixes on the approach distances um widely what’s that it ranges widely it does if you had to if you had to put a bulk of them somewhere it’s one 75 to 200 but when you start lumping in like ranges by like clubs when you start looking like actually the wedges like nineiron through your wedges is probably the most abundant shots that you’re going to see um that like 150 and under 150 and under exactly so um greens are heavily guarded by bunkering you’ve got water and play on six of the holes there’s like in excess of 80 bunkers on this course and that’s actually after they reduced how many bunkers are on this course uh the nice thing about Colonial is there’s really not a specific archetype other than consistent accurate and allaround good play so um if you’re if you’re those you can definitely win here but again just to reiterate accuracy is is absolutely critical everything and accuracy is not just a straight ball because the famous quote from Ben Hogan is a straight ball gets you more into more trouble at Colonial than any other shot that’s because there’s so many dog legs like the the horrible horseshoe notwithstanding the rest of these holes aren’t straight either no hell and the part the par 3s are really long and nasty cuz you have tiny greens they’re running fast uh this is Texas it’s dried out it’s windy it’s just going to be it’s going to be tough to hold these greens because you’re going to have to hit really solid distance control flight control you’re going to have to curve it right to left left to right up and down you’re going to have to look for the ball Strikers that have their game dialed in right now and that’s another reason why I’m kind of upset that Xander’s not here because I think Xander would set up a extremely well here with with yeah oh yeah we’re we’re definitely going to talk about that guy but yeah it this course is just you have to be able to shape the ball and put the ball in the Short Grass if you’re not in the short grass here forget about it no 100% agree with everything you just said um so talking about getting dried out so thunderstorms have been pretty much cycling through daily uh we’re going to have more rain tomorrow uh going to have a little more rain on Friday it looks like everything should taper off rainwise probably late in the day tomorrow wind is kind of an interesting thing right now it started the week when I first was writing columns and looking around we were going to have gusts upwards at 30 miles an hour even at in in some cases excess of gust above 40 that’s kind of come down a bit uh we’re going to be pretty well sustained around 10 to 15 miles an hour with gust getting into the 20s so not as brutal um but the temperature being in the 90s almost every single day with it’s a blow dryer yeah it’s gonna it’s going to get real dry real quick so yeah and plus another change they made to this golf course was to be more environmentally friendly and sustainable so they added some baranas for drainage so yes it will dry out much faster than it would have in years past because all the water is running off naturally into these ditches and into the man-made water hazards that they put in so yeah this place is going to dry out in a hurry no matter how many Thunder storms blow through today and tomorrow I want Seth to make us one of those like peewee’s Playhouse things that’ll pop out every time we say baranas with like a pow like a like a yeah like a Bara yeah fancy Spanish word for drainage ditch yeah for a shitty ditch with grass with a culvert sometimes yeah added grass to the bunkers on some of them too yeah so that’s I mean essentially what they did was they they made the bunkers into these baranas for the most part um so I I mean in my mind the the way the Broncos play when they’re dried out is real similar to a shitty rigid like Sandra munic course yeah I mean but at least when they do that they make they allow you to ground your club because it’s not a typical bunker anymore I uh bo loves Carnage I don’t know that we’re going to get Max Carnage here I think we’re probably looking around, 1400 for the winner plus two has actually been the cut like almost every year so yeah I plus I think plus one to even is be gonna be kind of kind of that range though so yeah previous winners uh Grio last year eight under Burns nine under the year before crack 14 the year before that and burger 15 the year before that yeah so guys can get hot here but it most for the most part it’s subdued birdie wise there’s only two par fivs so it’s you got to get yours where you can get it all right what do you say we bet on some golf and twirl some clubs I’m just drink bourbon well I’m drinking beer today [Music] uh surprising no one in existence your uh alleged felon Scotty sheffler is your betting favorite at plus 260 right now on draftking Sportsbook it has kind of fluctuated between plus 270 plus 280 now it back to plus 260 and again if he’s less than plus 500 you have to really determine how much of your bankroll you need to risk to make it worth betting him and my advice has always been to wait until he slips to plus 500 if he does then you hit him when he’s at a more favorable number because he can win from any any number of Strokes back especially if it’s before the before the cut line that’s that’s that’s my rule is is if he starts off slow or if somebody else starts off better and his numbers starts to slip to a more favor favorable position there’s not a stroke distance that he cannot make up and I will Hammer that line we’ve already done it at plus 800 before and even got him at plus 1100 a few weeks ago when he double bogied the fourth hole on Thursday Scotty sheffler is in the field he is a very very high likelihood to win this thing nobody disagrees that he very well could win the thing we’re just saying be a smart better yep and as I lovingly called it earlier in a couple one of our DM chats I I’d like to call it pulling a b pulling a bow moving forward like it’s been your advice for like the last five weeks on Scotty cheffer keep keep your hand hovering above the button pull a bow yeah watch that line I mean I’m telling you just keep the Line open as you’re watching him play if he has one bad hole on Thursday that line will slip that’s a it happens fast and if you wait one more hole he could birdie that next hole and and that Line’s gone so if you’re betting Scotty sheffler you got to be on your toes so a guy I do want to bet yeah let’s hear it uh I am gonna I’m gonna go with col morawa plus 1200 and what a what a great lineup for he’s one of the more accurate off the te players he’s an outstanding iron player and except for Sunday at Valhalla he’s making he’s been making some putts and is a underrated short game I think that it this all of the signs point to this course fits Colin morawa and plus 12200 for a guy who’s playing as well as he is that’s that’s soft it’s it is honestly soft and we can thank Scotty Sheffer for being here to soften the lines on every single other player in this field yeah and with morawa too like you got a little bit of Xander going on like morawa has been there like for the last four tournaments in a row and you know why you know why because he’s really freaking good well he’s really freaking good now he was really freaking bad uh at this beginning of the year I mean oh yeah there no signs of life but yeah he got his he got his mind right at the Masters where he got a third he was ninth at RBC Heritage 16th at Wells Fargo four last week I mean what’s interesting about all those finishes with the exceptional last week is he’s actually lost Strokes on approach which which is so uncal morawa like and that will regress back to the mean in a good way yeah and once that does happen we’re talking about a guy who week on week on week was gaining five plus Strokes to the field on approach so yeah if you get if you get vintage K morawa in any of the coming weeks he is absolutely gonna lap the field so I’m just gonna start getting back on the train and plus 12200 I think is a really good number on on somebody who’s been super close the last few weeks another notch in his cap is I went through I one two three four five 12 stacks that I put in my model he is in the top 20 in all of them except for putting and honestly 64th in this field and putting on bent that’s his best surface he putts better on bent grass than any other surface and every other stat he’s in the top 20 in this field every single one and he’s in the top five and four of them top 10 and four more of them this guy’s just locked in he’s got all the right Fairways gain metrics all the right greens and regulations opportunities gained he’s number eight on approach still even though he’s been quote unquote struggling with on approach over his last 24 rounds he’s eth in this field on approach and that’s bad for Colin morawa yeah he’s a good pick that’s that’s just insane to see him slip to double digit more than double digits plus 1,200 for that that’s that’s insanity and with how Scotty looked off the tea last week he’s not a given to win this thing if he struggles off the tea like he did last week especially on Saturday where he shot over par for the first time all year he’s had just as many felony cases as he rounds over par this year I think the dangerous thing with Scotty is just and not to get back on Scotty but because we got plenty other guys to talk about but the dangerous thing with Scotty is like yeah he’s a shoe in probably as long as he tees it up he’s going to be in the top five most most often I mean there’s going to be the rare instances like last week where it falls out of it but I I mean he’s got negative odds for the top five yeah and it’s just he’s just unedible so now now the name of the game at least with golf betting is either pull a low or try and find Value where you can find Value and tip your cap if he does win and burns you I uh I know that I am in the um minority this week on on this next thing I bring up but I think you’re in on them so I’ll let you try and convince me I am completely out on maxom here and and that’s understand for me I put so much stock on off the te accuracy and approach accuracy he’s he’s great in both those things off the te game has not been there lately but I know it’s there for him the problem with Max homo is if his approach games off you a little bit his short game is not what’s going to help him win I just I I feel like he’s he’s still playing well enough to where this golf course sets up in a way where he can just play his best type of golf like Xander did last week where it’s like the course s team seems to bring out the right mindset where the parts of his game where he’s least confident in it’s not the Forefront of what he’s trying to do this golf course is all about finding the Fairway he’s great at that it’s all about hitting small greens he’s outstanding at that most of the time if he’s not having to recover and and scramble to make a par he’s going to be fine he’s going to be there he’s going to in a tough Golf Course like this generally speaking Tough Golf coures maxom is going to be there he’s going to be a top 10 lock and I I’ve seen him play well enough at Tory Pines and Riviera to know that if it doesn’t matter if it’s Titan Tree Line This guy’s still going to come to play and he’s going to give himself a chance and the line plus 2,000 and when he opened it was plus 2200 then he dropped to plus 1,800 he’s back up to plus 2,000 I’m hammering that line because he’s too good for that soft of a line and again we can thank Scotty for that yeah I’m I’m going to let you ride or die with Max I just I I’m not I’m I’m with you on calling though I I just I just think Max is super soft this week um I’m I’m out on your next guy which is the complete ju the position that we’ve ever had I uh I love Tony F out here I I just freaking love blink twice if you’re in danger I I uh I I had to I had to run my model a couple of times times I had to’s blinking SOS and Morse code right now people I had to I had to pinch myself I called a couple of friends I called my mom I just wanted to make sure that like I was I was still on planet Earth because you know how much I hate Tony F now but is I mean is this a green screen behind you somebody’s recreated your studio because I’m not sure that you’re safe like are you in a safe place right now my wife’s got me chained to the table did you see we just we had you have electrodes attached to your uh testicles right now cuz uh this is a guy who literally purposely misspells fow’s name because he has so much disdain for Tony fow as a golfer as a betting golfer and I I don’t fault you for liking him this week I think he’s number let’s see number five in my model that’s pretty good like we lost viewers because I said I’m on Tony feno they know what’s up I know they’re all they’re all gone and this is either going to shape up to be an alltime reverse of Fortune where you finally get Tony F now right or he’s going to be so dead to you that there’s nothing that can bring him back because two years ago Connor liked fow situationally like if it was a rocket mortgage or some place where Tony fow could just bomb his way through T to Green outstanding didn’t matter if he puted well like Tony fow could play in those tournaments but but this last two years you’ve been so far out on him that you won’t even spell his name right and how you come to me here saying that you love Tony fena a plus 2500 I like him enough he’s great in my modeling he’s been hot he it’s all the stars are aligned for this is the week but if he doesn’t come through for you there is no return from that there is no coming back from that if he fails you this time uh Tony Tony and I are going to have to have a talk because no so uh yeah I mean I think I think what’s what’s crazy is the more I dug into him right he uh last week at PJ Championship he gained nine and a half Strokes on approach nine and a half Strokes on approach and finished he’s good at that he’s good at that finished 18th how does he finish 18th when he’s that good on a second shop golf course because everything else was just so like basic but then I started looking at what he’s actually been doing I put my bias aside and he’s actually been like pretty and everything except putting which you can visually see when he plays yeah so so essentially all we need out of Fino is him to keep doing what he’s been doing with his approach game the last seven starts if he does that and just has a flat week flat week off the tea and putting he probably wins this and wins it pretty easily and so and you look at you look at the course history here too like feno’s actually got pretty good course history here he did miss the cut last year but prior to that he had a T4 a T20 a t23 and a second in 2019 so it’s not like he plays poorly here the other two things that I really kind of got on to that I like about Tony feno is one plays better in really windy conditions it’s gonna be windy he plays better on bent grass than any other surface in terms of putting and so it’s just all of the sudden like the stars are aligning where Tony feno makes an assload of sense and and he’s Plus 500 so I just ran my model with the new filter the bent grass filter my favorite filter and Tony F now is 85th in Fairways gained 91st in Strokes gained putting and 103d in our main proximity distance 175 to 200 he’s only top five in double bogey avoided and top 20 on total approach he gains he went all the way down to 47th when I put the bent grass filter on you got something filtered wrong if you go into his player profile on fantasy National right now and you look at his putting profile he putts almost a full stroke better on bent grass than any other surface over the course of his career that’s the only filter I have on here go into his player profile you’re going to see a very different story but nonetheless uh I love where the approach game is setting up I love what he’s been doing the last few starts and like I said I think that this is a course that’s going to allow Tony to plot a little bit more take the driver out of his hand on every single hole a lot of these par fours are definitely less than driver true yeah true there’s very few must have drivers on on this course and you can’t you can’t dispute it he is a good wind player so when the wind kicks up and it drives out fale is equipped to play here so so you said if he drives well in putts average he wins this thing and if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his ass when he when he jumped well you even you and I would still bump our asses when we jump we’re too top heavy that’s for sure all right next down the line I go quite a ways down until until I get to my next one I I I’m going to be topheavy with Max and and Colin and shoot where am I going down to Tom Kim 50 plus 5500 you talk about guys who’ve looked good recently Tom Kim looked great last week he didn’t finish as strong but 19 birdies he killed himself with a couple bad holes but 19 birdies last week put him in the mix for a while 19 birdies at Valla that was more than most people what was the winning score minus 21 that’s pretty good I mean good for TK it’s nice to see him doing anything he’s straight off the te he’s great on approach he plays well on shorter courses the number one comp strongest comp course to this place is Sedgefield and guess where Tom Kim got his first PJ tour Victory sedgfield I think if you came to me with a a good number on a top 20 top 10 for TK I’d probably jump on it I just don’t see 5,500 he’s good plus 450 for top 10 that’s strong i’ be in on that I don’t see any way that he wins this like he did have a good week last week but but you just look at what he’s been doing all season he’s not even sniffed a win even last I’m just throwing him out there because the next one on in line is is a unanimous like resounding our both of our favorite bets of the week so we have to have some dialogue guys we don’t agree with well I like SEIU at 35 and I like Tom hogi at 40 better than TK I like Tom hogi Tom hogi actually fits this course pretty well yeah well we all know what happens this is a this is it’s probably the apocalypse is on us because I’m I’m betting feno and I’m betting hogy in the same week I’m just waiting for somebody to tell me that Connor is being held captive because he’s just all in all the chips are in the middle of the table all the guys that were dead to him have resurrected themselves they are zombies Walking Among Us and Connor is going for broke on guys that he usually hates I got Keith Mitchell on the card too cashmere Keith good Lord anyways has he made a putt since Nam uh without further Ado our our one of our favorite if not our favorite play of the week he’s my favorite play of the week AE batia yeah uh you might know him as Barracuda Champion Valero Texas open Champion uh Barracuda win was in a very tight Tree Line Golf Course up at trucky Lake Tahoe old Greenwood and his second was Valero Texas open where he just took down Denny McCarthy with the best short iron play we’ve seen all season and yeah Buffalo Trace makes him exceptionally happy makes me happy too I love Buffalo Trace sponsor not a sponsor yet so more yeah always remember this week when when Connor gets burned by two of his least favorite golfers that he happened to be in on it’s going to ruin every barbecue I’m about to have otia plus 5500 somehow is getting longer by the day is there a better player with a short iron in hand right now than him no I don’t think so like if he if like I said this on the betting Pros podcast is if you let oxa batia drop a ball and start and play his second shot with 125 yards he would make Birdie on pretty much every hole and the only question we’ve seen is with a streaky putter which has been very good lately and uh a little bit squirly off the tea when he’s a little bit excited he’s not the best stress player he’s what 22 years old he might he might need some time to polish the the the pressure but I mean he he did win the Valero text open staring down a very tight finish with Denny McCarthy I just think that oay is the perfect golfer for Colonial perfect golfer for Colonial yeah I agree um excellent long irons excellent short irons he shapes it does shape anyway shape of you already proven that he gets even more creative in Wind situations dry situations earlier this season um yeah there’s just nothing about him even with the putter like the putter went cold last week but in his prior um seven starts he averaged two almost 2.6 Strokes gain per tournament uh on the putting surface it seems good especially with how good he is on approach yeah so I mean he went a little cold last week but that’s definitely he’s never had a sustained drought on his putting at least not in the last 10 months so yeah I love everything about him this week I and it’s a hell of a number on a guy that definitely can win here and I’m keeping it pretty trimmed down on my betting card this week I’m going to have a little bit of Bren and Todd the Todd father whose odds keep slipping he’s just too accurate of a player always puts himself in the mix on these types of golf courses and I’m sure you’re going to tell me a couple others here um but I have a deep shot we’re we’re going deep on Ben Kohl’s because we’re not going to be out on Ben koh’s with the way he’s playing I’m so tired of being we’re where we were the first ones in the entire golf industry on Ben kl’s and then when we finally stopped talking about Ben Kohl’s after a year and a half of Ben Co this Ben CO’s that uh he starts playing out of his goddamn mind and so we’re going to play some Ben CO’s this week at 180 to1 which opened at 250 to one so we’re definitely not alone on him anymore but I’m tired to being an out on him when other people are enjoying it no well said no argument for me I’ll I’ll throw out you can uh read about these guys in my column if you want to know more on why I’m playing them but a couple before we get down to um my deeper shot uh Aaron Ry uh plus plus 50 or yeah plus 5,000 rather um I know Bose on him as well he rates out incredibly well very accurate great approach player number one number one in the field and Fairways gained that should that stands for a lot yeah he’s also not bad in the old opportunities gain metric and uh he’s uh six in the field and uh Greens in regulation just in general I mean he’s very very accurate player the very accurate very and he wears two gloves and he puts covers on his irons and those gloves fit so Lucas Glover is another one that uh and he doesn’t wear gloves despite being named Glover very see what I did there yeah two gloves Aaron Ry from England and no glove Glover from America so Glover is kind of an interesting one just to throw out a couple of quick stats to save people to read if I don’t want to do it stat darling extraord stat darling but within good reason the last 24 rounds like it’s crazy how accurate he is it’s more so than I even thought 70% of Fairways hit 72% of greens and regulation hit number two in the field for opportunities gained the problem with him right now he can’t putt he can’t putt which is historically always that’s always been his problem so Lucas Glover would be the best player in the world he would have beaten Victor hind in the FedEx Cup last year if he could make a damn putt but what he did really well in spurts last season was make putts and so he got hot yep so so he’s he’s another player like I’m not as hung up on putting metrics this week as a lot of other people are it’s just a stance I’m taking I’m not saying I’m right I’m not saying I’m wrong but I’m going for super accurate approach guys and Lucas Glover is one of the best in the business still so 55 to one I think that’s a pretty good number on a guy who’s got close to as good a apprach game is the guy we just talked about o shaa he’ll have a chance for sure okay I must address the elephant in the room it must it should have been a second deegree felony for assault on the DFS Minds when I was invited to not one but two extra DFS contests with Connor and his buddies some of whom are in the chat right now and I swept the board [ __ ] took all your damn money so I I really am sort of a little bit sorry that you all were slamming your trunks against me last week forget it no I’m not sorry at all I’m going to do it again this week send that invite no trunk slams The Club is this would be a wrestling [Music] Conor um thoughts I am devoid of thoughts or emotions I mean you’re you’re all in on Tony Pino and Tom hogi that should say enough for your mindset this week obviously I’m trying something different this week he puts his underwear on backwards just like the rest of us oh God and the it was funny too because like I was I was at the bar with the um Tim Burke and Tim Welch you watched the show God and they were all cussing you guys were all cussing me I know well they were beating you for a while on Sunday and I can’t remember which one I was looking at I thinkt was JT was the one was on on the course still and I kept looking at the number holes left and I’m like he had he had eight holes left and I was only down by three points you guys were so toast yeah I kept going JT is still on the course you’re [ __ ] pal yeah JT in his hometown with who was actually charging into a top 10 finish and and you thought you had a chance that’s cute that’s adorable I dude I can’t say anything I thought I had a Nails lineup like I I honest to God when when I put the lineup in I was like this is the type of lineup that’ll win six figures like that was what I was thinking and then Saturday morning rolls around and I’m like I have two guys that made it through the cut this is awesome excellent outstanding that is DFS in a nutshell it was uh yeah a lot of Carnage on on my on my card but that’s okay it was funny though cuz when I built my lineups I was struggling to get under the cap because all the guys I wanted I was at 4 500 over and I was like damn who do I want to drop from this to make room and I finally did it and I think I think only one guy missed the cut and it was just like okay that was the luckiest thing ever because I just guessed right and so I will take your money for now I’m sure I’ll give it back here eventually and I mean in a in a vacuum I mean this lineup is this is this right this was last week right marroy oberg Thomas bazen hoot pendrith and that Tim wiing guy I was on like on paper that’s not a bad and Tim was under par in the first round he just sucked on Friday yeah I mean CZ absolutely screwed me and oberg I I don’t know I maybe he got arrested we didn’t hear about it I told you his knee was sore he was feeling on it all week he like he that dude trunk slammed harder than any anybody he was so he wanted to get out of Louisville so fast like he like he might have gotten arrested on the way out of the gate yeah my knees are going to be sore making more money to play DFS this week yeah ludvic oberg uh we need to rest up buddy and so get get your rest get your knee right ice it elevate it compress it do all the things you need to do because that was atrocious God I was so pumped about that lineup I thought I thought I was so clever that’s not the only lineup I played last week but that is bazen who was awful good Lord what a what a trunk slam that was that was the one I elected to play against B which I should not have yeah it was it was regretful so let’s pull up latest ownership projections from our fan our friends at moose nomics fantasy National Scotty sheffler I’m surprised he’s coming at a 37% rostered right now I do kind of think that 13,000 three for Scotty is actually kind of reasonable given how many chalky because you you can still build around him no problem I’ve already built a couple lineups with him in it yeah it’s it’s not terribly difficult to get him in a lineup I I still don’t know that I think that his win Equity is that much higher than some of the guys I like at the top just at this course because you made you made a really good point about him like if he does struggle off the tea at all Um this can go south for Scotty kind of quick I mean you doesn’t have the putting to recover for it we know that so I don’t I don’t know having to get to 40 or 45% once the Casual Market creeps into what we’re looking at I mean yeah and he was a fade in my article again but that just means I’m going to be under the field in ownership I’ll be probably around 20 25% on Scotty yeah I mean you’d have to be an idiot not to roster him some but yeah a Massac is like I hate money I don’t I actually don’t enjoy winning anything who wants the thrill of victory yeah not me no sir the chalk pivots are obviously colore Kawa and your argument between uh 16 and 177% owned H and feno uh if you like me press one for hom if you like Connor press two for Tony feno they’re they’re sporting the same ownership they’re both they’re both pretty decently priced F now being cheaper 500 bucks might help you uh fit them in a lineup a little easier seuk Kim is definitely on my list that that 11% for seuk Kim at 9600 that’s a steal of Leverage and Sun jm’s playing pretty good golf lately and 9400 is pretty cheap for a golf course that demands accuracy uh he is accuracy personified will I bet him on the win no but is he in the DFS pool ABS [ __ ] lutely at 5.7% rostered expected that’s too low I don’t know I’m still not back on sunj I’m probably going to regret it but I mean are you in on 16% Christian Bizen Hood I actually kind of like that’s disgusting I kind of like here easiest chalk fade ever he’s I I I can see putting him in the pool because he’s an accurate player but I mean what he what we saw from him last week was so ugly that he shouldn’t be this chalky that’s just stupid no I mean honestly outside of Scotty I I probably I probably am a little bit out on morawa 23% um I got that’s pretty high I probably have got some interest in playing Tom hogi uh he’s getting up there at 12 and a half percent but I think he’s overpriced like if he was 88 I would be fine but’s 88 that’s weird why is so expensive well if you look at the guy who’s around like sunj and Adam Scott and even even Harris English like they’re not getting the results hogi is like now is hogi absolutely live to light your light your money on fire 100% like we talk about it every week but statistically and results wise hogi is playing significantly better than those guys so I mean the pricing to me makes sense it’s just weird to see him up there yeah as much as I love fading the chalk on certain guys that there’s no bigger chalk bomb to dodge than Brian Harmon 20% 9500 I can’t stand this guy on approach like everybody think oh he’s so accurate he cuz he doesn’t hit the ball very far his approach metrics are God awful this year this is not the same guy who won the Open Championship last year his putting’s good his wedge game’s good but from T to Green he has been dog [ __ ] this year 20% own for 9500 Brian Harman I will have zero Brian Haron this week yeah I what what I kind my hypo is here is that the reason Brian Harmon’s where he is is because people are three stacking the nines yeah and if you look at the ownership projection up there I think that that’s going to end up being a pretty popular build is three guys in the nines easy to fade stacking up top and D drill those High sevens and low eights because they are loaded yeah and we can get down into the eights I mean there’s up in the nines I think I think the guys we want to play are the same guys that we’re talking about betting so and The Leverage guys in the eights are guys we haven’t talked about yet I mean a little bit of Denny McCarthy 8700s 8% cashmir Keith is there even though he’s not going to get a lot of love for me Justin Rose playing great right now Chris Kirk 6.9% nice uh even chalky sep straka who’s he’s he’s a lot like Tony F now where he’s kind of that big game wind player like accurate player he’s just great from T to Green Tom Kim I already talked about him he’s only 4.9% if you’re looking for leverage pivot at 88,200 but right now I’m looking at a lot of guys in the mid and low eights and into the high sevens that are just too cheap and too low ownership to ignore in DFS yeah I think you got to like what Keith Mitchell represents like the driving just the accuracy the accuracy in general so good off the tea so good off the te and I’m like I’m kind of team no putt this week I know that may bite me in the ass but it’s where I’m going I’m team some putt so I think like 5% putting on bent Keith Mitchell man when he’s on I don’t think I don’t think you want to full fade him I don’t think that’s what you’re saying either but I I do like 8600 for Keith Mitchell and that and that you might you might convince me to get him in the pool he’s not currently there but he’s on the cusp I I think I gotta like him a little bit more than some of the guys around him but that’s that’s you know is what it is I do think Tom Kim at 4.9% in DFS like I said I think a top 10 top 20 is fully Within uh Tom Kim’s range this week so $8,200 I think you get your money back there and 4.9 nobody has it well and that’s that’s what I’m saying I think it’s a really nice leverage spot especially in that low eights High sevens range because there is some Chalk in there um Aaron Ry we’re looking at you so 177% woof yeah I like him but I don’t love him yeah I mean getting into the sevens so I’m I’m really high on Taylor Moore continues to do what we didn’t think could do which is play great accurate player 10% leverage let’s go Taylor I’m tired I’m tired of fading Taylor Moore because he was chalky and somehow he’s been playing well and he’s less chalky this week make it make sense I can’t make it make sense especially when you look at Thomas dri who’s 2% more owned than he is yeah so yeah no I’m all in on Taylor Moore I love OE even at 13% um he’s down to 12 now even better 79 for AE is criminal in this field so Daniel Daniel bacon cheese burger defend uh one of the former champions of this event yeah and I think he’s a prime example of a guy that we talked enough [ __ ] about that all of a sudden if you’re in on if you’re in on Lucas no glove Glover you got to be in on Daniel bacon cheeseburger well I’m not the only person coming around on Lucas Glover because I’m showing him around 15 % now yeah he he’s a DFS fade for me I’m gonna play I’m gonna play Glover I got I got spots I can get different enough that I don’t mind that percentage on them and how much Austin ekro are you gonna have at 177% I mean everybody loves Austin ecro this week because he’s your accurate course darling and he’s underpriced he’s underpriced too far now everybody has him and I I’m kind of turned off by that no I so I’d go I’d go up or down from him like echr at 16 177% like that’s that’s too much like yeah Ben Griffin is the same type of golfer as Austin e Road and he’s literally coming in at 4% and he’s 300 $200 cheaper $100 cheaper how about homeless hubs red hot homeless hubs at 7700 133% owned that seems decent it’s it’s just like it’s too much chalk for a guy who we’ve seen do well in spurts I don’t know that I love hubard on Fast and windy uh like I don’t know like he’s playing really really good golf and I’m normally a huge hubard fan but like I don’t I don’t know that’s a lot of chalk to eat for what I think is g to play awfully tough like hub’s hub’s game is really like being able to be right in the middle of the pack in a birdie Fest which is why he kind of showed up last week and he makes putts like the guy makes everything if he’s on the green and regulation he’s going to make a lot of birdies but this isn’t that course I see your Ben Griffin at 7,400 4.4% owned and I’ll raise you last year’s runner up at Colonial Adam shank at 5% own same price can’t P you for wanting to play him I I like that play too 5% for a guy who was in second place last year and he lost to Milano Grio who just got scalding hot down the stretch last year it should have been it should have been shank that won last year but Grio just was unconscious on Sunday yeah who there’s a guy that I’m not gonna touch but well he’s getting he’s getting CH he’s not getting any love either like nobody believes in the repeat G Yeah well yeah because because he’s not playing good golf but I mean to your point Ben Griff and Adam shank I mean I’m certainly willing to roster them over Andrew putam projected at 12% or Austin e at 17 18% so yeah I think those are good pivot plays and and I made the point about Ben Griffin I mean he’s a similar golfer to the guys right around him in price right he’s an accurate player he’s not going to kill you he makes a lot of cuts very consistent which is what you’re looking for in DFS and you get the leverage out of him so so I’m going to give you a three-part multiple choice these are three guys that are moderately chalky for their price they’re all three are playing really good golf this year all three have decent fits for this golf course Lee Hodges Doug gim Brandon Todd out on gim I think I’m going lejes but lejes is kind of the chalki of the group yeah he’s at 10% and Todd is at %. I think with lej is what draws me to him he does write out seventh in my model so he’s up there he’s he’s in my great last week outstanding last week not only that but what’s an interesting thing about lejes over the last 24 rounds that is a good differentiator this week is he’s number four in this field for Sans save percentage so not only does he have a pretty stout approach game not only is are his best two ranges with irons the two key ranges we’re looking at but if he does miss one of these pretty small greens finds himself in a bunker he’s fourth in the field of getting himself out of that trouble getting up and down so he’s a good tiebreaker when you talk about three four people in the same range even with a little higher roster ship like leh just has a little more a few more tools in the tool box he does and how about leverage Hammer 7,000 flat Eric Cole less than 2% owned pains me but he’s 102nd my model and he is just a far cry from where he was a year ago what happened to Eric Cole cautionary tale he’s actually number six in my model I want to might want to refil we have differing opinions I mean if we look at the results lately I think my model is holding a little bit more weight recently it hasn’t always been the case shots fired shots fired uh and why roster 14 to 15% Justin low down at 6400 when you can go all the way down to 5700 for 4% own Ben Kohl’s make it make sense Connor I know you’re a staunch proponent of Justin lowers he’s been playing decent golf earlier this year lately he’s been terrible uh 14.5% is steep for a value play yeah I can’t I can’t get there with that roster ship so no I’d be I’d be Ben koh’s with you as well like that’s just that’s too much to pay for um Justin laow any other extreme value plays that you’re gonna touch on um maybe some uh te dunk Tyler Duncan no T dunks but um I did look at Austin Smotherman a bit um oh you haven’t said that name in a while yeah it’s kind of a weird one to throw out there also he’s 400 to one in the betting market for the outright so you know there’s your I’ve done Dumber [ __ ] with five doll bet um but no Smotherman surprisingly rated out 17th in my modeling over the last 24 rounds and what again he’s another guy that’s like a very adequate ball Striker but what drew me into him a little bit more is um he’s actually in the top 20 for all of the approach proximities that I looked at so all four buckets and he’s 19th in this field for opportunities gained so he really has been a lot more accurate and getting a lot more looks at birdie than maybe what uh what you would think on the surface so 5500 I’m not going to say it’s a gross misprice but I think he should be probably closer to like the Dylan Woos Kevin TW Justin Su range like that low six T’s gonna be in my pool again because he’s been solid that’s probably as deep as I go though I I might sprinkle in some Ryan Moore Ryan Moore obviously short short hitter accuracy he made a total of four Cuts this year too I’m not saying that Ryan lining up to play Ryan Moore and God you have been so I’m not saying that here and a big reason I’m not saying that here is I there’s no way I’m going to have to be down here that often like I am actually going to play a lot of Tony Fe now which saves me a ton of money at the top of the board sure does so oh hurts me if the Hat picks Tony fow dude I’m not even watching it’s meant to be oh it’s so good all right who’s gonna win this damn thing besides Scotty shuffler um Tony feno 1400 that’s disgusting I’ll say Colin morawa I forgot to mention to you Tony fow has the good uh te- split too am Thursday PM Friday yeah we don’t get to talk about that because usually we’re on Tuesday nights and they haven’t been released yet but now that we have that information the te- splits are important and still all my money this week yeah it’s gonna be so fun all right I think it’s going to be calling morawa at 15 underpar I I I don’t hate that either I like it I think first round leader might be something spicy though I don’t yeah I’m with you there I’m kind of kind of interested maybe a minu Lee first round leader gross I think I don’t know man I think it’s gonna be a little nasty get around noon time on Thursday so I think a guy is g to come out of the Woodworks too I think it’s just going to be a guy like uh a batia first round leader he’s got the good te- split too I think he does and wouldn’t you know it when he wanted the Valero he started off real hot too wire to wire H I’m gonna I’m gonna hate myself if AE wins and I said Tony F now I’m retiring from the show if that happens all right is the Hat ready the Hat the hat is the model the models are so different that this is get this could be anything uh and the hat has has selected no God the Hat’s [ __ ] number 81 81 no way this a a Milano Grio defending Champion the Hat the hatab bits uh I’m just gonna SC there’s no way my guy is gonna do well this week you got to at least say it the hat is [ __ ] me over with Sami valaki I don’t hate that actually hate it $5,600 The Hat chose a milono Grio God [ __ ] hat the Hat has not been wrong yet this year unlike us I’ll tell you what Burke you play a lot of ailano Grio you let me know how it goes you and the hat I’ll let you wear the hat how about that yeah all right from Conor Coughlin I’m Bo mcre this has been the 19th ho will join us next week for the Royal Canadian open been defending Champion Nick Taylor that was that was quite the finish last year first Tommy flew gagged it away if I recall how many tournaments has he won on the PGA Tour by the way I think in French it’s Zer Zer all right join us next week for the RBC Canadian open we will be on time next week on the correct day shout out to the loonies out there next week is your National Tournament cheers [Music]
