PGA Championship Picks – Golf Bets With Kyle Kirms

PGA Championship Picks – Golf Bets With Kyle Kirms

Kyle Kirms is joined by The Big Nasty to run through some top bets for PGA Championship. May 16-19, 2024

Visit the website to see the final bet tickets for every sport.
https://www.kylekirms.com/

@kylekirms – Twitter

#golfpicks #freepicks #golfbetting

yo what’s up welcome back to another episode of the sus major time we got the PGA Championship and big nasty’s coming off a hot week um you had an in the top 10 you had Rory on watch list he won it you had someone else in the top 10 as well right yeah hom top 10 also H yeah hom so coming off a real nice week some momentum into the uh the big tury here and obviously Scotty sheffler is back in the field outrageous priced as expected so why don’t we start there everyone is going to be looking at sheffler he is plus 450 to win I believe yes plus 450 to win worth it or no I listen it it’s hard to bet against the guy but you know he has had a couple of weeks off so golf is a game of momentum and building momentum so Lessing congratulations to Scotty on having his baby um I’m going to stay away from Scotty this week listen if he proves me wrong he proves me wrong but in in terms of value uh in a loaded field again because it is a major you have all those live guys coming back so the field is going to be stacked packed and ready to go um I’m gonna probably shy away and fade Scotty Sheffer this week yeah I mean plus 450 not a very enticing price all right so who do we want to talk about then where are we starting yeah so I mean uh one other thing just to note you know just information is power in this game Scotty sheffer’s caddy actually won’t be with him on Saturday um he’s gonna be there for the majority of the the tournament but on Saturday Scotty’s caddy actually his daughter I believe graduates from either high school or college so he will be having a fill in Caddy for one of those days um you know how how noteworthy is it or how important is it I guess we’ll find out but you know these guys really work as team so I I that’s just one other reason for me not to like him this week missing his caddy on Saturday got it um so what you know let’s start with who I who I’m going to take to win it um I’m on ludvig aberg baby uh the guy played well in the Masters he’s played well in a lot of Majors he has a couple of wins um on the PGA tour in just a short career he has the game to do it all and uh you know I think that he uh there was some speculation that he was battling some type of injury but all of that skepticism has been put to bed uh he said there are no issues with his body he is good to go he uh he didn’t play last week because he wanted to make sure there were no any uh setbacks so he’s ready to rock I want to say he’s like maybe plus 22 um plus I had I just had it up uh plus 2200 plus 1,800 on B MGM plus 1,800 on B 365 so if you shop around you could find a a A plus 2200 though on DraftKings and FanDuel yeah FanDuel is is where I’m uh where I’m usually headed and this is the guy that was right up there in the Masters right yeah I mean he he had two bad swings that really cost him and I think it was just the lack of knowledge of Augusta that really got him on that back nine you know he he only lost by a couple of shots and and there were some shots that he really kind of forced where he didn’t really have to like that that shot on 11 you know where he hit it into the water and then dropped and ended up making double bogey um you know that’s really when the doors opened up for Scotty and he kind of just pulled away so you know I think coming back with a little bit more experience a little bit more knowledge I think that you know he has the game to compete anytime he puts the ball on a t I think I’m gonna take aberer to get it done this week all right aberer cool where should we go next so I love the majors it’s it’s my best and favorite thing to do in all of sports is betting golf majors because there’s just so much more action going on out there so I have a couple different plays uh I’m gonna start with a top 10 play um I like walking nean if you look at uh if you look at his game he’s been playing well on the Liv tour you know how well does that translate over to the PGA Tour um Neiman plus uh I think it’s plus 300 on FanDuel finish in the top 10 um I think kids got a great game he’s got good distance off the te uh this course Valhalla they talk about driving distance just like last week driving distance is a big factor uh so if you look at uh data golf which we’ve we’ve been using to narrow down some of our picks walk Neiman is seventh on that list in terms of uh course fit for his game so I’m gonna go walking Neeman at pretty good odds to finish in the top 10 there’s actually a plus as I’m recording this a plus 320 open on bet 365 so if you have bet 36 65 you can grab an extra 20 cents there on Neeman in the top 10 all right cool I’m going to write that one down Neiman top 10 okay so I think my pick of the week and I’ve already I’ve already thrown this bet for the week um I’m going with the homeboy JT Justin Thomas uh finishing the top 20 his game has been trending in the upward Direction Valhalla is his hometown his home state Louisville Kentucky uh he’s a two-time PGA Champion so usually when they set the golf course up for PGA championships they set it up in very similar ways so a guy who’s gotten it done already twice in a PGA Championship a guy he’s grew up he grew up playing this golf course I’m gonna take JT top 20 at plus money too um big plus money you can get a plus 210 at bet 365 yeah I got him I think I locked in at plus 175 but I that is that is my pick of the week that’s the one that that I’m kind of hammering home has he been playing like [ __ ] why why is it so I feel like this is a really good price for Justin Thomas so it’s a great price for Justin Thomas I don’t think he’s been playing you know the hottest of Hot golf but he also at the end of last year him missing the FedEx Cup playoffs he’s come out this year and started kind of on that Trend to get back into into form and what a better time to find form than in your home state in your hometown uh on a course that he grew up playing I I really really like this bet a lot yeah two-time champion in his hometown I’m in I’m definitely adding that one to the list Justin Thomas that’s my favorite one that you said so far yep all right so I might that might be one where I take a home run swing on a a winning bet plus 5,500 I may glance at yeah all right where do we want to go next so you know like I said Majors you got a lot more odds they actually have top 30 and top 40 in these events so uh a guy that we we won money on last week right if he’s hot he’s hot I’m gonna go with Ben on in the top 30 uh I think it’s again plus money so you’re finding some good money a guy who’s been playing good golf um when you talk about that course fit tool that we W that we use on data golf uh Ben on is one spot ahead of walking Neiman who I actually like in the top 10 so I think going grabbing on at at plus money and top 30 I think is kind of a no-brainer um if you’re looking for some value if uh you follow On’s game again he he mashes the ball off the t uh and that’s kind of what Valhalla it calls for it calls for big big ball hitters here well yeah he almost he almost won last uh at the Wells Fargo what was he third he was right yeah he he finished solo third um Rory kind of pulled away at the end uh the Double bogey on 18 made it seem a little bit closer than what it was but he he was he was right up there until the very end uh a solid week a solid performance if you look at Ben On’s last five six seven starts you’ll see that you know he’s trending in in the right direction so uh love this bet especially getting him in the top 30 at plus money I think it’s it’s great value okay Ben on going back to him going back to the well going back to the well one more time all right my last pick I think um a name that when I say it you’re kind of going to be like who the hell is that um but believe it or not you know going back to this this course fitting tool and and where he stands he’s fifth on the list in terms of shots gained via driving distance only behind D Shambo Rory maroy Dean bermas and minwoo Lee minwoo Al Alexander toasty or Alejandro toasty alandro toasty so Alejandro tosy here I like him I’m only I’m not going crazy with this bet but at to finish in the top 40 on FanDuel he’s plus 400 all right and in terms of the model that we’re using with with datag golf you know that he is up inside the top seven in terms of what his game is Taylor Made to and the fit for this golf course at at plus 400 to finish in the top 40 I don’t think that’s asking a whole heck of a lot um he’s definitely played well this year you you don’t get into a major like this unless you’re playing well on the PGA tour you know because he obviously doesn’t have the wins or anything on his resume that would automatically get him exempt for this tournament so he has to be playing good golf to even be eligible to play in this tournament so you know I like it I really really do so he’s from uh Argentina I looked up his bio right here so Alejandra Alejandro tosy from Argentina University of Florida he’s a gator and he does have a top five finish this year here it says here oh no that’s over his career I’m sorry he has a top 10 finish this year yep all right yeah so I mean I I I like it like you said it’s it’s a little bit of a long shot play at plus 400 odds to finish in the top people like the sleeper they wanted one of those toasty let’s do it yeah I mean I I think it’s uh I think it’s good actually I really really encourage you uh to to watch this guy if you think Terrell Hatton has an attitude problem and it has a hot this guy takes it to the next level um so I I think he’s a he’s a fun guy to watch and you know if you want to take a little long shot on something why not why not go for this guy I’m gonna take that one I like Justin Thomas and toasty I think those are the two I’m going to roll with yeah just one other thing you know as as we’re talking what you know some of the things that could transpire over the weekend here uh we look like we’re going to get some weather so um Friday already look like it’s going to be a weather delay to start so I think if you are getting an early morning start on Thursday and then a late start on Friday afternoon I think that’s beneficial because you’re almost going to guarantee yourself to play and finish your round Saturday morning so you basically get two morning waves which the wind is down in the morning and the the golf course is in more pristine condition so the guys that have the early morning start on Thursday I think are going to benefit um and probably play the golf course slightly easier than the guys who have to start late on Thursday and then play late again on Friday so just something to keep an eye on if there’s any guys I know JT is early I know abber is early um just something to keep an eye on I think that that’s probably gonna come to into play I’m looking up toy star time right now oh no he’s got a late start bro toasty is late um but you know listen he might be be a little toasted when he gets out on he’s actually the second to La oh no the the third to last group of the day he’s the one of the latest school do it toasty one uh one one last thing shout out to Chris gdup I don’t know if you know anything about Chris gdup but he won the Myrtle Beach Classic last week so we talked about Andrew Novak a little bit and my personal connection to Andrew Novak I actually have I went with the wrong personal connection Chris SC Up’s a CBA kid uh really yeah yep lives in r um that’s cool so shout out to him getting his first win getting into this field I can’t find him anywhere on any sports betting apps to bet because I would love to bet him I think because he just got into the field the sports books are trying to catch up on it but uh if you can see Chris got up anywhere uh ride the hot hand maybe throw a little cheddar on his way uh he’s in the very last group or second to last group yeah so in terms of the course fit tool um got Up’s right behind aberer wam Clark and walking Neeman so his his game is tailor made for this golf course so if you happen to be able to find him anywhere um I’m looking up CB CBS Sports sometimes has some some of them more no they don’t have them on here either CBS yeah like I said last man in the field winning last week so it’s probably uh you’re probably not going to get any action on got her up until the weekend but you may be able to slip him in for like a top 20 if he has a good first two days and makes the cut right um but just shout out to him well done he gets a two-year exemption to the PGA tour now which is pretty cool he’s invited to all he’s invited to all the majors yeah yeah you love to see it love to see it all right cool so we got a bunch of picks here I’m definitely roolling with uh toasty and and JT May throw if I find this God up kid represent Mammoth County I’ll uh may maybe throw a bed on him as well but thank you for joining uh hopefully let’s make it so you you’ve been on three times two of them were great you’ve only had one Los we so we we only we only lost minwoo and we lost him on the last two holes of the tournament so we’ve been we’ve been riding the hot wave let’s keep the street going and uh you know bet responsibly let’s have a great PGA Championship let’s make a lot of money yes sir all right thanks for coming on we’ll talk next week man sounds good man