NOTE: Recorded before Hideki Matsuyama WD at Wells Fargo Championship
Pat Mayo and Byron Lindeque 2024 PGA Championship Picks and Bets, discussing trends, recent form, Injuries, LIV Players, Play or Fade and their favorite plays from each odds range.

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Show Index

00:00 Intro
00:36 Giveaways
2:48 Course Changes/Preview
6:48 Scottie Scheffler
11:20 Jon Rahm
13:55 Rory McIlroy
15:22 Brooks Koepka
19:12 Ludvig Aberg
22:21 Major Championship Trends
26:41 Viktor Hovland
31:30 Xander Schauffele
35:44 Collin Morikawa
40:31 Patrick Cantlay
44:53 Jordan Spieth
47:13 Bryson DeChambeau
50:33 Cameron Smith
52:00 Wyndham Clark
54:03 Joaquin Niemann
55:20 Hideki Matsuyama
57:02 Justin Thomas
57:39 Max Homa
1:00:18 Will Zalatoris
1:01:55 Cameron Young
1:03:53 Matt Fitzpatrick
1:04:24 Dustin Johnson
1:04:48 Tommy Fleetwood
1:06:15 Tyrrell Hatton
1:06:38 Shane Lowry
1:07:19 Tony Finau
1:08:31 Jason Day/Sahith Theegala
1:11:24 Byeong-Hun An
1:12:10 Min Woo Lee
1:12:44 Sam Burns/Brian Harman/Sungjae Im/Si Woo Kim
1:16:27 Adam Scott/Tom Kim
1:17:47 Nicolai Hojgaard/Patrick Reed/Keegan Bradley/
1:18:21 Corey Conners/Mac Hughes
1:20:07 Akshay Bhatia
1:21:09 Stephan Jaeger/Talor Gooch/Rickie Fowler/Abraham Ancer
1:21:44 Tiger Woods/Phil Mickelon
1:23:17 Justin Rose/Harris English/Dean Burmester

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welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy we’re kicking off the year’s second major content week with the player by player breakdown for the 2024 PGA Championship Byron lindu from rotoballer.com and co-host the fantasy golf degenerates is going back and forth with me on each of the players but first I want to let you know that I’m giving away a bunch of stuff because it’s a major championship why wouldn’t I give you a bunch of stuff you can find every everything down in the description the main thing subscribe to the newsletter cuz all of the info will be in there as well the main things that you can do this week in order to get yourself what do I got here $500 cash is one of the prizes just PayPal right to you easy stuff two fantasy National annual membership so even if you’re already an existing member you can get your membership upgraded to free for an entire year two of you will get that and Tambo was very generous enough to throw in a month of ship it Nation as well that will be I’ll do the draw I’ll draw out four people that would be prize number four hell in the order that it’s given I can give you the option of what you want to do so we’ll be giving away those winners on Wednesday evening maybe Wednesday morning depending on if we do a chat show or maybe I’ll give them away on the cut sweat live show which we are for sure doing this time around weather pending of course with Jeff and Tim next Friday maybe we’ll give it away on that show but the big things that you can do just hit the description subscribe to the Mayo media Network Instagram account where Byron you’re up there right now just talking about great betting strategy a lot of short clips that we’re doing we’re really putting an emphasis on the short clips right now so you’re up there talking about how you should actually bet on golf every single week not how I bet on golf every week hey Pat Uh happy Val holidays to you and um let’s have an awesome time chatting about some golf you you you know your stuff you you sell yourself short every now and then no never people are here to listen to you about zoa grass and what is new at Valhalla this time around because that’s really the thing the biggest difference that I saw between now and what we may have relived through watching 2014 the last time the PGA Championship was at Valhalla obviously Rory won Phil and Ricky in second place but they’ve changed the fairways in the T boxes to zoa from Bentgrass and they’re saying that where you have to water that less it’s going to be a lot firmer and a lot faster and I do think the change that we’ve seen from the PGA of America not the PGA Tour by the way people get this conflated all the time they’re like I can’t believe the PGA would let all these live guys in well the PGA Tour did not let all these live guys in the PGA of America let all of the live guys in and whoever else they want to invite these are two separate entities they are not the same so do not get that confused but now that it’s firm and fast and they’ve really since it’s moved to May it’s just been harder it’s been more like a US Open than it was in the past yeah and what I’ll be doing going forward is using US Open and PJ championships struges gained history kind of to get a feel for this because I feel like they’re essentially the same tournament right now I’ve kind of divvied out the the yardages on the golf course to kind of figure out okay what can we expect if these guys are new can get 310 off the te and it looks like about 60% of shots are be coming from 175 an hour okay so typical typical major stuff yeah just literally if you just take the yardage of the hole minus 310 that’s what it gets me so maybe there’ll be some holes or some elevation and things like that but it’s a general understanding of what’s going on and we’re going to expect some L this week for sure and that’s really no different than what we’ve seen some of the past few weeks the Masters is that way Quail Hollow is that way hell the CJ cup at Byron Nelson was also that way weirdly enough in terms of yardages yeah that’s the weird part when when you have a birdie face with guys making like five irons on every second shot it’s does not make sense but hey that’s why they PJ to a pros and not you and I speaking about it maybe we’ll get to see this as it goes out I would expect the rough to be longer this time around than it was in 2014 but because of the grass change one of the things that I was reading about was green side with a lot of these runoff areas the ball was sticking up on a lot of them in the bent grass before with the zoa grass where it’s going to be firmer and faster you’re going to get a lot more roll out from around the green so maybe some that stuck towards the back or held up on a ridge or just going to be gone I I in my mind I feel like the short game is going to be very reminiscent to what we saw at Southern Hills yes it’s almost like I feel like it’s going to be lyy in a way for some weird reason but not but I I feel you Southern Hills kind of crispy tight lies let’s see what the guys can get up to once again to get in those giveaways it’s over I think it’s around yeah like $1,300 worth of giveaways right now and there could be more added to that because there could be Underdog credits coming people’s way as well so that is the big way to get into the draw if you want to do anything if you’ve already done it you’re already in the draw so thank you very much use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now and get a deposit bonus of up to $250 plus if you are a new customer this time around you get a free Square for the pickham game at the PGA Championship as well so go do that right now you do that you get the maximum amount of ballots into the draw you can always add on but that one is worth 25 ballots into the draw where everything is else is worth five so you rate and review And subscribe to the pat Mayo experience audio podcast share it around to really help us out I’ll have a tweet that comes out as well that if you share it around you get five ballots into the draw as well so you’ll see that pinned as of Sunday at the pme on X Instagram account Tik Tok account newsletter all worth five ballots a piece you Max them out you have the best chance possible to get your hands on one of the giveaways but we are here to talk about each of the players and break down what their chances are going to be and we will go in order of the shortest odds to the longest odds obviously we’re not going to get to all 156 players in the field one reminder too about the PGA Championship and I think people forget this every single year it’s the only tournament that’s still top 70 in ties for the cut line oo I do like that it’s probably that’s what the Michael blocks of the world love that right we got to get those PJ professionals through the cut line so he can have some blocky blocky Mania well you hit on it the guy with the shortest odds in this field Michael block even money to win the PJ championship this time around he got he’s in because he finished top 15 a year ago do you think Jeff posited this question to me earlier on in the week do you think they give him a good group like with real players not creative players oh 1,00% he’s he is like polarizing more polarizing than Rory himself you know I think he’s going to be the Blockbuster guy on the broadcast so he’ll be playing with some fun names I will not be surprised okay in all actuality Scotty sheffler is the favorite at Valhalla if he plays obviously he’s not playing in the Wells Fargo Championship but that doesn’t really mean anything right now do you have a sense of if the baby doesn’t come this weekend because this was always a high alert for the master Scotty’s going to leave that was never on the table because that was never happening unless there was just an out of this world emergency going on with his wife but it feels like she’s actually scheduled to have the baby sometime soon I don’t think that even if the baby comes on a Friday he would leave he’s on a heater right now Pat it’s hard to not kind of let your name not rest in the history books of what he’s up to he’s got the Grand Slam on the cards obviously after finishing the win at Augusta I think he’s a family man though you know there’s a chance there’s a a less than zero chance I think he leaves but every day we get closer the worse it is well best number on the market right now is plus 410 so 4 to1 essentially that’s at FanDuel everywhere else either as him at 4 to1 or three and a half to one hell even Caesars has him at 3 to one to win the PGA Championship it is set up to be a course where Scotty is going to dominate these are the types of courses that he does dominate where the winning score is not going to be 27 underpar if you get to minus 11 minus 12 you’re probably going to win which is sort of this sheffler Zone where he’s I except for the Houston open apparently where he can’t win at minus 12 he finishes at minus 11 and loses to Steven Jagger I don’t really know what you could say to counter him I guess the question would become would you bet him because I mean I don’t I don’t bet guys at 4 to1 to win golf tournaments no Pat because if you lose then you’ve lost a lot of money you know that’s the thing it’s it you got to invest so much to have a fun time betting Scotty to win it outright maybe if you just want to almost treat it as a placement for a fun bet just put a little bit down but you know it is a major I do tend to be a bit more Reckless with my bets and have a bit more fun be a bit more of a DJ so maybe we can figure something out always keep an eye out for some live numbers with Scotty if you’re in the mood for that stuff I don’t necessarily know if they’ll let the numbers drift as far as they should but I don’t know man I think this week maybe with all the baby and stuff going on there’s a bit of chance that his his mental capacity is not quite where it is which is still scary at 80% but it’s not Scotty at 99 100 and what he’s been doing and on this historic run maybe does really knock out makes him the outlier and we should really start to embrace that I know that I’ve struggled to do that because you look at the number you look at the rest of the field and think this is golf weird stuff happens in golf all the time it’s hard to think about this guy in the same context as 2000 Tiger Woods about guys that will win The Masters and then win the PGA Championship or the next major directly after who was the last player to win the first two majors of the year I believe it was spe right that’s a great question Pat um sounds right was that what Chambers Bay Offa yeah it was Masters Chambers Bay so just he finished second at the PGA Championship last year it didn’t feel like he was super competitive to beat Brooks because Brooks started to run away with it and Scotty just had a fantastic final round and and he had a Rory mroy second place where he was never in danger of winning the tournament yet he still cashed a second place payday it’s hard to bet against him and not say that he is the overwhelming favorite but I I just feel like I’m not going to get there I will say just to take a look at his putting over the past 24 rounds he’s in the positives like if that’s going to happen again he’s probably going to win it’s a scary proposition Pat you know I think I know it’s an outright kind of show maybe but the top 10 top five Market I know you’re going to be laying a lot of juice but that’s with this part of now it’s even scarier you know that safety becomes even more so it’s he’s a he’s a juggernaut man and you you got to get exposure to him one way or another and it’s yeah playing on DraftKings maybe taking his under on Bogies on Underdog fantasy pick him Scotty Sheffer I believe will be the free Square as long as he is in the field so it’s like you know higher than 0. five Strokes in round one boom you can just make a ton of money right away by using codee Mayo at Underdog fantasies and you can do that to help support the show as well that means we can bring you more free content throughout the course of the year including more on the PGA Championship like live chats and other things of that nature round recap so please go do that and support the show I mean it’s boring to talk about Scotty Sheffer the guy’s great he’s the favorite to win by a substantial margin there’s nothing really bad you can say now let’s get into the rest of it John R is up next at what is he 14 to one it seems should he even be the second favorite in this field because I would say that Brook should be facts I do think that’s correct assessment there Pat I think Brooks you know shown he can have that upside in the majors at any given moment playing a lot better on live obviously after winning recently so Rah heading over there and not necessarily playing the best golf is quite funny and it makes him even more grumpy so watching John Ram play Bad Golf is going to be quite enjoyable for me so hopefully that comes to fruition but I think Brooks should be ahead of him in fact I’d have Brooks ahead of Scotty almost because of what he’s done at these PGA champion ship in the past it’s unfair I think to say how poorly Rah is playing I don’t think he’s finished outside the top 10 in any live tournament has he relative to Ram standards and also not outside the top 10 in live is like what it’s like only 15% of the field right so it’s like I don’t know I would have expected him to have won at least once or twice by now but and he had seems like he can’t yeah he had a huge opportunity to win the first two live events at Maya COA and in Vegas and kind of gag them down the stretch which was really surprising yes because I think that’s the beauty of love is like where’s the seriousness like I feel like maybe at austa that doesn’t happen you know but it’s lived there’s like no fans like I’m winning this goddamn golf tournament and like 17 people are watching me right now maybe I’ll just hit a quick little snap hook into the Ravine and I feel like that’s what’s happening with John Ryan live right now DraftKings wise I think it presents a much different opportunity because we don’t know what the pricing is going to be but if it’s just based off the odds like most of it is he’s going to be the second third or fourth highest price guy on the board and I can almost guarantee you he will be the lowest owned then I believe it’s a different proposition when you’re starting to think about this tournament because it’s not like we’re sitting here saying that John ROM should be 70 to1 to win he’s 14 to1 what do you think his fair odds would be to get you what would be the odds that it would take right now for you to bet on John ROM would 20 put do it for you sure I think a 20 is a fair number especially at at this kind of a venue where you have the thick rough like literally Memorial Tory Pine South these kind of courses that’s where John Ram has thrived in majes as well he could flip the switch you know maybe I think he’s he’s a motivated guy and maybe he doesn’t really give a [ __ ] about like playing well at live but showing up at another major now he was quite embarrassing at the Masters I think he’ll he’ll be coming out firing at Valhalla Rory mroy is third on the betting board actually second on the betting board tied with John ROM in this aspect and we’re doing this before the inclusion of the Wells Fargo Championship but I don’t really see Rory’s odds getting affected really either way maybe he drops he’s 12 at some places he’s 14 at other places even if he has the world’s worst week at Wells Fargo it’s not like it’s going to drop to 20 it’s going to be 16 and if he wins he goes to 8 to one or something like that being the defending Champion albeit a decade ago at this course that does carry a lot of water for people yes and I think that’s what’s going to be happening Pat is we’re going to see Rory kind of getting in his compan so now after AUST is behind him I’ve been saying it multiple times that I think Rory Mao is going to go on a bit of a run here soon because Augusta is this Bugaboo it’s this like mental monkey in his head that he can’t get around and I think all the tournaments leading up to Augusta in April kind of take a beating because of that I think he’s way too focused on getting that grand slam you know that’s it’s not just a green jacket it’s the Grand Slam and now that that’s behind him until next year we can expect Rory to kind of show some some form and potential like like we’ve expected from him last little while so it it suits him perfectly this golf course you know so why the hell not I get that but are you really gonna bet him over Brooks because it just sounds like you’re leaning towards Brooks yes I’m leaning towards Brooks in a big big way I mean this this dude has got eight top twos in his 24 major starts I mean that’s just incredible to think about there’s like hardly anyone that has that amount and it’s just fascinating to see how he switches it on at tournaments and now that he’s in a bit of form he’s going to be tough to beat you know I really hope Scotty’s in his best shape too because I want to see Brooks go up against Scotty and and see how that faults it’s funny because I was trying to think about what the optimal scenario would be for viewing and it’s it’s not Brooks versus Scotty I mean for us seeing the the best player that we’ve seen probably since Peak tiger whenever the hell you want to say that was even his run in 2013 when he didn’t win a major but won five times and one player of the year he was still pretty Unstoppable that season as well so maybe that’s like the last great run anyone has been on spe got close when he won the three majors in such short succession when he won two majors in a row maybe he achieved somewhere near that level as well but having Brooks the best major player of the past decade versus Scotty the best player that we’ve seen in a decade would just be fireworks but for TV ratings it’s Brooks versus spe Brooks versus speed I thought you’re going to say Rory like everyone else it’s it’s but it’s not like I would like listen I would prefer to see Brooks versus Rory that would be more entertaining for me but when you just draw a through line to which PGA Tour tournaments rate well it’s anyone more speed is in contention that’s it right and I mean we’re going to be seeing speed scramble like crazy at this golf course right and that’s like the best speed that’s like unicorn speed in his element so toss cam Smith In the Mix there for a little three-way and I am you know frisky over here in the studio in Dallas Center Iowa so for Rory he’s coming off of a win at the zuro with Shane Lowry low pressure goes out and plays fantastically over the weekend and Carries Shane Lowry to that playoff win where he had to beat you know the the the Brooks kepka Dustin Johnson of our times Chad Ramy and Martin trainer in a playoff but coming into this one I think that I lean more towards Brooks Brooks coming off a win in live Singapore which you can say nothing about we kind of laughed it off last year when he won the week before the M like yeah it’s some public course in Florida who cares but when Brooks flashes form right around a major you need to pay attention like you said eight second or better finishes in major championships so I I just see Brooks’s I I had the money in to bet him earlier at 16 to1 I had it I I almost hit click and I was like you know what I’m just going to wait to see if Rory wins this week because if Rory wins he’ll move up the board or if Xander wins he’ll move up the board any of the bigger names right now if they end up getting a win at Quail Hollow it’s not that it’s going to crush Brooks’s number it’s just it might drop to 18 and when you’re talking about the difference between 14 16 and 18 on a betting board it doesn’t seem like a lot to a lot of people but when you’re actually putting the money in the amount of money you need to bet that make that to make it worth your while it’s a huge difference it’d be like if Scotty all of a sudden was posted at six instead of three and a half like that’s a huge difference huge difference personally I never got to Rory at Quail this week because I woke up too late Monday morning and the nines were gone I don’t want to bet him at because like just 9 or eight like my dad will look at me he’s like just bet the eight like I was like well Dad that’s a massive like you want to give me the extra 20 $50 that I need to kind of subsidize what I missed out this morning so absolutely I think nothing can happen to Brooks’s number that would make it go back I I live playing this week this weekend no Liv is off this week perfect so then yeah he can’t go win a tournament so his numbers not going to get better it only can get worse if other people make it better you know for us all right so Brook sounds like we’re both in on Brook so those are the big ones on the betting board next on the betting board and I think Jeff has about 100 to one to win this tournament is ludvig oberg who withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship with a knee injury he is currently 16 to one and that’s actually the best on Market you can get that at bet 365 and DraftKings right now if you want to his around the green game is not sharp he played in his first ever major at the Masters and performed pretty well people are waiting for this to happen for him and I don’t think it’s too much too soon he’s he’s justifiably ahead of Xander I would have him ahead of Xander I would bet him before betting Xander I mean they’re going to be pretty close if when the numbers come out but I think that he is closer to this level but if you gave me like if you can get Brooks at 16 and ludvic at 16 there’s just no chance that ludvic would get my money in the situation yes uh Xander at 16 lvic at 16 I’m going lvic because that scar tissue ain’t there you know I think that’s the way to think about it and I just love how he shows up to Augusta which is a very coarse history dependent venue in his first major and has the best putting performance of his career at Augusta Tiffany second so I don’t know like that was a massive outlier you know if that pter doesn’t heat up it’s not we’re not speaking about how amazing he is you know he’s still amazing but not like wow you know second at Augustin your debut so we’ll see it’s a bit of volatility going on and like you mentioned that around the green game at ven like this going to be important and it could be his Bugaboo so we’ll see what happens when when he gets any second major now yeah he’s been okay around the greens I don’t want to talk about him like he’s Victor hin right now but we know that he’s going to gain off the tea in his geez what is it 25 career PGA Tour starts at this point I think he’s lost off the te three times sorry four times and one of them was a one10 of a stroke that he lost and when you take a look at his around the green he’s usually Break Even but he does have a propensity to lose it a little little bit and the Putter’s been cold for him it was hot at Augusta hotter than anyone at Augusta National but the Heritage Valero and the PLAYERS Championship tournaments where he came 10th 14th and eth dumped a bunch of Strokes on the green where the ball striking was still pretty Immaculate so if he was able to flip the putter a little bit to what we saw earlier in the season he’s running away with some of these events at that point he really is Pat and I think the funny thing about your tia green mentions there I think most of those courses are these kind of shorter positional tracks which I think he’s very very good at I think he’s still good on these long courses but there’s definitely an Avenue you can make an argument for saying that he prefers the shorter venues like Harbor towns and things like that because his accuracy off the tea just is so Sublime I know this thick rough kind of changes things up too because you got to be in the Fairway but he just seems to play really well at these short courses we’ll see what he can get up to this long one I don’t know man it’s I think he’s still like a nervy golfer but the short game the pting just he’s got so many ways to get himself out of trouble right now and it’s it’s unbelievable so yeah I don’t think I can get there with an outright on him at 16 to1 it just it just feels like it should be 25 yeah the hype with him is too much and I I do want to just bring this up real quick because I pulled up winners of every major for the last 25 years that’s 100 winners and in order to win at austa prior winners of a major leading up up to their first their win at Augusta is 50% the PJ Championship is 56% so like repeat winners happen more often than not at the PJ Championship I think that’s got a lot to do with Brooks but you have to have to have to have highend finishes in majors in order to win major championships and ludvig having that second place is just so much confidence that not a lot of rookies have because they don’t have those top end finishes I mean look how long it’s taken Max will get to him to get into you know contention at a major because just a different breed what do you think that we can take away from the last time that we did see this course in 2014 as I mentioned Rory it was Rory then Phil and then after that it was Stenson and Fowler and when you take a look at how everything got divvied up you know Rory I think was number one in driving distance that week let’s see and Bubba Watson was number one he came 64th he’s not in the field this time around Rory was second Brooks was third who came 15th JB Holmes Jason day Adam Scott day and Scott both came T15 then Fowler and Ryan Palmer and Graham dlet were next around at the top 10 they came third fifth and 15th are we like you said you started to mix in the US Open stats with the PGA Championship stats is that what we should just be doing here is just taking bombers because you do see other guys who did populate the top like you know Stenson obviously not a long player Jim furick obviously not a long player uh let’s see Stricker not a long player sniger those are the only four inside the top 15 in 2014 who finished below the average in driving distance for the week yeah that sounds to me like a cam Smith kind of a guy it sounds like a Tommy Fleetwood kind of a guy you know someone that can get hot with the short game that typically is very good at that that’s the elite trait that’s how they get out of jail that’s how they get to the top of the leaderboards you know the snides the stckers the furic those guys know how to get around a golf course but the easiest way to win a golf tournament is you just nuke it off the tea and you know if you just put a bunch of the those guys the likelihood that one of them gets to the end who’s got those other Elite traits of of long irons and the rest of the gang there that’s what you’re kind of looking for and I think like we’re going to potentially see at Quail this weekend these kind of venues separate the boys from the girls and the boys from the men and the boys from whatever else you want to separate them from the Mages are where the men shine you know and that’s what we’re looking for you the best do the best at these vus the other notable thing from L I’m using fantasy National for this fantasy National /o if you want to get 20% off and get all your research in for the PGA Championship I’ll have my research show dropping on the weekend where I do the walk through of what I’m looking at but you can do that too on your own time build your own model use the simulations get the best leaderboard app in the game everyone finished basically positive across all metrics be it off the tea approach short game and putting the only guys weirdly enough who didn’t do that ended up being massive outliers and other things like Stricker came and said talked about he didn’t hit a ton of I mean strier even at the time maybe even last now but even 10 years ago he was still one of the shorter players on tour but he gained almost eight Strokes on approach he lost two strokes around the green but gained nine on the green so he was just the weird outlier for the entire week but Rory Phil Stenson Ricky Ryan Palmer Jim furick and Ernie Ells the top seven on the leaderboard all finished positive across would that be sort of a dismissing factor for you now putting obviously is not as sticky as some of these other things around the green would probably be after that where you know you chip in once and that can really skew your numbers you make a 50ft putt all of a sudden your putting looks a whole lot better it does for the week Strokes gain is not the end all Beall and the most telling thing and doesn’t even necessarily tell you the entire story about what happened but if someone was just unusually bad at one thing like for example Victor holand who we can talk about right now he is chipping so poorly does that just disqualify him from getting your money the thing about Victor that’s very peculiar Pat is these Mages these guys can find baselines like they can just find it and Victor has been incredible in Maes the last little while so he’s scary and I don’t necessarily know what is his current odds right now for Victor um Victor is coming in at I believe 30 to1 Victor yeah you know like literally a year ago he scaled one into the lip of a bunker on the on the 16th hole and couldn’t win the PJ Championship that’s where we were literally a year ago so that could happen at any given moment he’s been working working working at his game he’s hardly played any professional golf this year it scares me especially at that number right because you the reason these guys drift is because something random is happening you show up to a major you fixed your stuff all of a sudden and TDA you know this golf course the rest of it suits Victor hland incredibly well I would tend to agree but I think you can say that about almost any course and even when you look at the comps of where Victor has played well versus some of the courses that we laid out for valalo they’re kind of Victor courses you mentioned Memorial well he won there last year he has played very well at Riviera over the years he’s played well at Tory Pines like all the courses that matter Augusta naal they all pop up but when the even Bay Hill I I I think that one’s a little bit different because there’s so much water around but the really thick rough the wind that can play the Reliance of just not being able to hit every green and regulation but every time that we’ve seen it you pointed it out on 16 last year at the PGA Championship it happened it also happened at Bay Hill like two years ago when he should have been winning this tournament he allowed sheffler to win because he couldn’t get out of a bunker yeah and then guess what he goes on a run to just end all T Championship hopes of anybody else and we think he’s going to enter the year just becoming one of the greatest golfers ever and then we he leaves his coach and then all of a sudden we back to Old Victor so the cycle is rapid with him we don’t know what we’re going to get a 30 is enticing knowing that if he does show up playing like we’ve expected from him in in the past would you be surprised if he’s at the top no but would you also be surprised if he chips himself out of the tournament on on Thursday morning yes you know like that’s definitely a possibility too I I guess the way that I would do it would not necessarily be looking at the average I think looking at the average of a baseline of what a player’s stats are is helpful but then actually to go into investigate of why that is so I would take someone like theala for example who I’ve bet on to win the PGA Championship at 66 to1 I like the gala I think that he has the right kind of game weirdly although H is like better than Sith to Gala I kind of see them in the same bucket but with the gala as having more upside in the long run so maybe almost like Anthony Edwards in the NBA Playoffs like something has clicked for him he’s just been lurking on leaderboards for so much of this season that one really hot week with something is going to turn his fortunes around but when you go and investigate his stats he doesn’t seem like he’s the best iron player in the world but it’s hot or cold like he can be really bad with his approaches unlike a lot of players he doesn’t have that same sort of consistency that you’d like to see but when he is good he’s like top five in the field good but he does everything else well too so you can try to catch him although you know his average what are his average Strokes gained on approach over the past 24 rounds right now it’s you know 0. five per round which is really good that’s actually substantially better than I thought they would be but earlier on in the year it was like 0.1 or he was like in the negative cuz he had one really bad week but when you go and look at the positive Spike week that you can find the gala is one that jumps off the page to me whereas Victor just consistently loses around the green it’s every week yes that’s fair pad I think you’re you’re correct in that assessment and I think what what you can also kind of glum on to potentially though is that we’ve seen Victor havland actually gained Strokes around the Green in majes or particularly the US Open and PJ championships he’s he’s gaining like a third of a stroke in his you know 31 rounds of golf that he’s played since 2017 so that’s kind of why I’m like okay you know we we suck when we’re playing normal PJ tour events but in these Mages Victor’s been a bad trip of pretty much his entire career so this number is not going to be you know it speaks to me why do you think that is do you think it’s a small sample is it because especially at the US Open and PGA championships generally speaking you’re dealing with much longer rough and it’s just harder to chip even for the good players so it evens everyone out yeah there’s a multitude of things it’s the rough kind of the thick thaty that you kind of hack out Victor’s typically much better out of that than than like a a thin lie Kari cow also same situation he’s chipping and putting in Mages is just incredible and I think it’s a mindset thing these guys no one’s going to you know you can rack up hundreds of wins on the PJ tour it’s cool cool but like major championships these are what these guys are hunting down and I think it’s just literally a mental thing I’m going to be at my absolute sharpest in the Mages I’m going to Chip and Putt like a de you I don’t know what the deal is just mental it’s tough to explain Xander Schley is next up on our list and I am interested to see what he finishes up as at the like where he’s the second favorite going into Wells Fargo we’ll see where he ends up finishing on the leaderboard but in terms of Strokes gain T green he’s averaging almost a a stroke and a half per round and he’s putting really well weirdly though the Heritage didn’t perform all that well it was bad T to Green lost Strokes T to Green for the first time since Pebble be which was a three round tournament where only two rounds of stats were actually counted towards that so we could throw that one out it’s just very few and far between where he actually does lose Strokes ta to green and it happened for a period last year at beill and the players back-to-back weeks dropped strokes and then he got everything back together then it happened again from The Travelers basically through the first round of the FedEx Cup playoffs which also included the Open Championship and the Scottish open in there and the results didn’t really come along so we Dro Strokes in all three major categories at the Heritage and we have all the data from the Zurich but I would say that he and Klay not doing super well in that tournament isn’t great news for where the state of his game is maybe that flips back this week and we feel comfortable with a Xander top 10 which is like the BET of every single major but I’m a little bit worried about him you shouldn’t be Pat I think he’ll be okay once again you know he was playing with CLE who I’d be more worried about than Xander in the team team aspect and then it’s the week off to the moners you know the guy got kind of close not really but might have been a little disappointed about it all it’s a tough week to come right unless you Nam Scotty Sheffer and just throwing on a green jacket and then winning it another play jacket the week after Xander might have had a bit of a bad week I know Max had a bad week you know it’s just it’s tricky to figure out what happens at that golf course after the Masters so I’m not too concerned I think with these long isons at this venue man he’s Xander is like right on par with Scotty Sheffer when it comes to his long isons maybe even better if you want to really look at it because he’s so good from that long iron proximity he’s picked up tons of distance like the guy’s game is built to win these kind of events I don’t think his brain is though that’s the problem so of all the guys that we’ve talked about so far I mean these are the guys at the top of the betting board it’s mainly only good things that you can say about them but when it comes to actual betting it does seem like the only player that we’ve circled so far that we do like as an outright bet is Brooks it is it is maybe we can find some value then in this in the 30s and things because I didn’t expect to get to the situation and just gloss over all these guys but there’s warts on all of them Pat there’s warts on all of them yeah and you really have to figure out how you want to structure your betting card for the week obviously in Daily fantasy it’s going to be a little bit different because you’re probably going to end up inevitably with two of these guys on your roster and then you really got to go all in that’s I I do think that Xander we talked about a top 10 bet it’s a great bet probably as a DraftKings play probably a great play as an outright bet at 16 to1 not going to to get my money got two second places and two thirds in majes since 2017 but that wind column is empty baby and so is the PGA T win column so top 10 or bust you mentioned that the PGA Championship has repeat winners more often than is it any other major that we’ve seen the PGA Championship have double and triple UPS yeah it’s a pretty close call but for the most part you know 56% of winners the US Open only 32% of Prior or people that have won a major not just a PGA it’s just a major winner will win a PGA 56% of the time a US Open only 32% of the time dating back to 1999 so it’s quite interesting Augusta 50 um but the 20th or better percentage so like if you finished 20th or better in a major prior to winning 80% of people have done that for PGA championships 100% of them have done it at austa so the stickiness for high-end finishes is there but you know once it gets floating outside of that top 10 top top 20 it’s it’s a little bit of a lottery so yeah make of that what you want well a guy that checks both of those things that we just talked about and comes in with good form despite not doing the one thing that he’s supposed to do well is former champion and bronze medalist at Augusta National Colin morawa who is 30 to1 on the betting board as low as 25 as high as 30 at the moment the putting has actually turned itself around a little bit at Augusta and Heritage gained almost three and a half Strokes at Heritage gained across all Strokes gain categories at the Masters the off the tea it’s back I don’t know how it got back all of a sudden but it’s back baby the chipping has been amazing somehow and you do see somewhat of a correlation between poor approach play and higher around the green Play Because when is approach play was the best in the world his around the green game was not that sharp but now all of a sudden like he’s been L bad with his irons for the better course of three months particularly from 200 and out surprise surprised we’re going to have at least one out of every three shots come from that number I’m very scared for Colin he has gone back to his original coach who he ditched before the 2023 rer cup I believe and that’s kind of right along when we’ve seen this decline in his long iron play whatever the issue is with his swing if this coach can get it back to business the short game now showing up out of nowhere all of a sudden is very enticing knowing that he’s Ty good with a short game in Mages the biggest issue though is he’s being very bad you know with those longons so we’ll have to see because I just I’m not bullish on him at all because you have to hit your irons well I don’t think you can rely on Kari Cawa winning a a major because of his short game it has to be with ball striking and short game I I would tend to agree although if they we’ve seen him putt really well in major championships which is always surprising as someone who bets him at other tournaments and he loses 10 Strokes on the green somehow that that yeah the number becomes enticing enough with him where he’s just not a part of this like Xander tier or ludvig tier he’s double the number of these guys that the bet for him is that he does everything the same except he remembers how to hit his irons and he doesn’t even have to hit them as well as he used to if the rest of his game comes along with it right and if this new coach gives him just a touch of confidence in his swing we’re in trouble you know but and and what is his number 30 you said yeah there’s a there’s a 30 out there was a 30 yeah I mean when Collins got into contention though Pat it’s been shaky he’s been floating around the top of the leaderboard lately but man you know like we’ve seen him at the century i’ never even watched him win the Zozo because it’s all the way in Japan against nobodies but we haven’t seen him like really put the dagger in the coffin there when when he’s been in contention so 30 is appealing though you know that’s a nice number and another for another I me he’s W two majors the dude’s only like 25 years old so I mean this happened to Brooks for like a 5-year period as well like between last year and the last time he had won the US opener PGA Championship whenever it was that he was in contention at the Masters and the P the one that Mora Howell won at Harding Park Brooks was like laughing off the entire leaderboard and just absolutely gagged on Sunday you’re a gagger until you’re not but if you’re a former Champion I always feel like you can rekindle that somewhere if it wasn’t too long ago like if Lucas Glover gets into contention yeah he won the US Open in 200 N I don’t know how much that’s going to help him right now but it’s been short enough in between that you just keep putting yourself in position over and over I mean that’s been really the biggest key to major championships unless you’re Rory who is there every time and never wins right and the thing is like Roy’s putting himself in position at the last time you know like Colin at least is kind of putting himself in position if somebody slips up a little bit he’s right there the back door is not as big for Colin as it is for Rory no I like it I like Colin I’m kind of liking Colin Patrick getting me on board a little bit yeah what what we need to see is a good performance from him maybe a week where he loses like eight Strokes putting and all of a sudden at qu Hollow but he gains like five Strokes on approach like good enough for me I’m in yes that’s it let’s go to the bank and we did see him I mean the the results when he comes in riding consecutive top 10s uh I mean throw the Zurich out of like actual stroke play single events but we’ve seen him do that with great form and win a PGA Championship and then we saw him basically had the worst week of his career career at the Scottish open then win the next week at the Open Championship so I don’t even know if form really matters that much for him it would just be nice to see yeah he’s sixth best strok gainer in in Mages man so he’s got that I think I think we’ll have to 30 is too good too good to pass up Patrick Klay is next on the betting board Patrick klay’s best number is somehow 28 to1 what world are we living in where this guy who has been terrible all year round outside of the two tournaments where he historically plays really well yet people seem to think that he should be one of the favorites in this tournament yeah with his one top five in major performances so far like yes give us the 25 like I don’t know delusional in my opinion I don’t think there’s too much to chat about you a guy that should be a very good fit for this golf course a very good fit for most major venues just hasn’t historically shown that he’s got what it takes to really thrive in these kind of situations got four top 10 but only one top five is just for someone as good as he has been it’s a little disappointing it’s disappointing and this is the worst form I can ever remember him being in since he what was the year that hadin won the valpar because Klay came second that year and that’s that’s back when Klay couldn’t hit a bunker shot and that was like his big Bugaboo that he couldn’t do anything out of the sand he’s worked really hard to do that and really overachieve it now he was coming back off that massive back injury he wouldn’t play in consecutive weeks he’s kind of left that shell of a player behind elevated to a new level H but we haven’t seen him play as poorly as this yes he played well at Heritage but he didn’t play well at the team event with Xander a tournament they’ve won before and historically play really well in I mean he had a chance to run away at Riv and actually gagged it away and finished in fourth somehow he should have should have won that tournament by seven strokes and didn’t he’s lost Strokes T to Green in four of his past six starts on tour most years he doesn’t lose more than four times TD Green in total and he’s already done that in his past six starts like this isn’t the the same guy right now it’s not I think I had an outout on him at the FedEx St Jude when he second Miss Fairway of the day was that snap hook into the water in the playoff and I think since that moment he just hasn’t been the same his round four scoring average is abysmal he’s and I’ve always said what’s the what happens in Harbortown stays in Harbortown for Patrick antley it’s like basically Vegas for him it the game stays there like his game does not come along with him I’ve bet him at Wells Fargo after a good week at harb toown and it just does not show up so I’m out on him entirely but one thing that is interesting Pat to mention is like expectations when you’re playing well entering a major the expectations are higher right because you’re playing well you should play well at a major now he’s playing like [ __ ] like does that potentially allow him to play freely and with less pressure and maybe we see a good performance from him at a golf course that he’s a really good driver the of the golf ball when he is driving it well so I don’t necessarily I think he’s a good DraftKings play I think you know I think no one will want to play him and I think he’s got that potential maybe with some expectations off to kind of sh up yeah just even to take a look at his Strokes gained at us opens and PGA championships over the course of the past 24 rounds so basically the past four or five years or so he is good but he’s in the range of Cam Smith and DJ and Sheamus power and Austin ecro he’s not on that level with Rory and Scotty and Rah and Xander and Brooks and those type of players and morawa who is in that tier with him he is on the level below yet he has priced like he should be in that one Higher yeah I did a little weird thing with rankings with I take like if you’ve won one I’m going to take that win and times it by 10 getting down to 20th and then times it by by one and a half kind of thing to see how important each thing goes and as it goes down you take like less of a waiting and I’ve ranked Cy off of that 32 he’s 17th in major Strokes gained and he’s really really like 15th in pgaas and Uso so nothing remotely close to being Elite or or optimistic going into a major so the only thing there is that he’s not playing well that could be a good thing I don’t know yeah maybe’s just trying to change it up play like crap going into majors and maybe he could actually win one that would be a strategy that I would not employ but maybe that I I do think it kind of coincides with him being on the PGA tour Council like he’s played like crap since he joined that yeah and didn’t Rory also go through a spell where like being on that board unless you web Simpson or Peter naughty it’s not necessarily the greatest thing for your game yeah it it seems to be if you’re a mediocre player it’s really good for your career cuz even Chuck hofman popped up back out of nowhere Jes you know yeah and so you see Rory you see Klay I think spe and tiger are on it right now like I it’s not like spe’s been good let’s talk about Jordan spe guy’s been trash like actively bad Pat if you just take a look at what like you know when you see that Meme with the calculations and the person just like thinking of in the distance you see all the stuff going on that’s what Jordan spe was like without a kid now he’s got two kids that’s just exponential his chaos in his brain like I don’t like he thrives in chaos but right now the world is overly chaotic for him and he can’t sing seem to string together two good rounds together never mind four he’s missing Cuts left right and Center he’s 40 to1 to win a a PJ Championship I don’t know you know like he could always magic beanie’s way to Victory somehow but when he’s been in contention it’s been brutal to watch it’s not been good for a while so yeah what’s your take on on speo you gotta pass like just to see the other names that he’s currently around that you could have his listen I I don’t think I’m GNA bet Tommy Fleetwood but Tommy lad’s in much better form than Jordan spe is at the moment Lowry’s in better form the galwa is in better form fow’s in better form I mean DJ’s not Cameron Young’s in better form homo’s at least H just came top five at a major zaat tus I mean he is like Mr major at this point that spe just doesn’t feel like he’s in it’s almost like Klay where they’re being priced on their name alone not what they’ve achieved at all like the only good tournament the spe has had in the past three months has been Valero against a field where baa walked away and got to 22 underpar and the only thing that spe has really remembered for after coming in T10 is playing it off the roof of the clubhouse yeah opting to literally hit it into the club that was bizar that’s the thing that sums up his game right now and to look at it I mean the metrics will point it out he’s actually driving the ball much better than you’d expect especially for Jordan spe the iron play has been abysmal and somehow and this can always flip on a dime we’ve seen this before his chipping has been horrible horrible he’s he’s immensely talented but at the same time he’s like messing up badly you know like he’s he’s overcoming it with a few good Miracle shots but boy he’s hitting some bad ones too you needs to quit drinking before the round I think or or maybe start drinking just like uh or Keith Mitchell did that time and came out and was great yeah you just got to time it right so I don’t know some Kentucky bourbon for spe at the turn might just solve all his problems up next is a guy that I’m really flirting with betting this week it’s Bryson Bryson’s major performances have just been good and I was shocked he played so well at Augusta National I thought that and the course did eventually get into everything that I thought was going to happen to Bryson happened Saturday afternoon to Bryson when he just made the stupidest decision on 15 and you just expect that from Bryson at Augusta where that stuff can really get you at PGA championships in US opens you’re not really ever encountering that type of decision where you have to make this just you have it’s always a take your medicine course and he understands that Bryson’s somehow tried to play a speed shot at Augusta that’s just not his game and it cost him the entire tournament yeah and what Augusta was super soft on Thursday that’s when he the majority of you scoring but you know I think at a at a Cabbage Patch like this where you’re going to be hacking it out there rough that totally suits his game much better than than Augusta and I think what is is Valhalla like a flattish kind of a golf course what’s the what’s the typical ter I I should know this kind of stuff better but I’d imagine there’s less elevation at Valhalla than there is you know just kind of watching the YouTube vids but it’s it’s tough to see but either way we’ve seen Bryson thrive in these kind of environments this is what he does he us opens his PGA championships his cavage patch hack it out the rough hit it his million miles down the Fairway off we go I mean he’s he’s been incredible in that department all his all his life since he’s got jacked so he’s less Jack he’s less jacked out than he and listen I mean the guy’s almost breaking 50 on Instagram every second week so you just put him out at a tournament you can shoot 65 he’ll be good to go but to look back since 2021 PGA championships in US opens only I I continue to be stunned I mean it’s only one tournament I think it’s one PGA Championship that Austin ekro is just like at the top of this list which is just very funny but he’s number nine in terms of Strokes gained per round overall and we know that he did I mean he had one decent Open Championship that was at St Andrews I would throw that out because I feel like it has zero correlation to any of the other open championships and definitely not a PGA or a US Open I just don’t include the Masters because you see a lot of the similar type names pop up there if these are the two tournaments in particular that we think are set up the same way that possess the same skill set then I think Bryson needs to be super alive and when you take a look at his numbers they 30 is the best number in the market right now it’s probably going to be 25 28 but almost like we said about Brooks that Liv isn’t playing this week the numbers not going to get worse if anything it’s G probably gonna be 3035 by the time Monday comes around yeah I’m we we we lost over those guys in the teens and we starting to hit some names here Pat that are at some nice value with the same amount of upside and the same amount of major history as these other dudes in the team so loving where we going with this little bit of a Colin a Bryson after Brookie I don’t know exactly where that puts us I’ll put the math in there shortly but it’s it looks like a nice card you know that’s a solid solid card that’s some serious major winning uh Capital there what that’s five or so in the last little while so lots of lots to like about those three guys we’ve mentioned so far cam Smith is up next cam Smith’s best number on the market right now is 30 to1 generally 25 at most places but 30 is the highest you’re going to find that’s at draftking sports book I don’t know it’s funny that he wanted St Andrews and I do feel like he has another major in him but I mean this is a guy that I bet all the time and he comes second place on the live tour every single week but I don’t love this course for him of course he can always just make every Putt and get scorch ing hot with the short game and the irons I just feel like it US Open some PGA championships that he could have that token T6 finish but I feel like his driving just hampers him so much at courses like this yeah it’s a DFS play or like a top 10 at at whatever odds we’re going to be getting him there because the the driving is not going to help him win this tournament but he’s chipping and putting can help him finish inside the top 10 you know that’s just the thing the driver just limits his ceiling incredibly much and it’s it’s not what I’m looking forward to at the US Open at Pine nurst that’s where we want to go with Cameron Smith yeah is he accurate enough to do it though because you do want to keep at Pinehurst you do want to keep yourself out of the sand that’s everywhere even though he’s a great sand player I mean aie guy sand belt stuff you know I think we saw that at St Andrews a kind of crispy similar situation he can do it um we’ve we’ve seen him win tournaments where he lost five Strokes off the tea doesn’t matter you know he’ll he’ll gain 10 putty that’s what cam Smith does Windam Clark is up next he who has won the US Open a year ago three wins in the past calendar year for Windam Clark he actually has the perfect style of game to win a PGA Championship I put in a future bet on Windam Clark who you can get at 28 to1 right now and he gains across all Strokes gain categories he is sort of the Prototype player along with Brooks and Bryson an old school DJ that you would want to take at PGA championships in US opens when you have long firm fast type courses that rely on making 8ot putts for par a lot of the time like he’s the guy right now coming from the back end of the field I have him at 66 to1 to win this tournament or 50 to one one of the two I bet him US Open and PGA Championship back in February and obviously he’s not there right now but I don’t think that these odds are ridiculous if anything he should probably be where Xander and ludgar if you just base it off reality of what players have accomplished and it’s not like he wasn’t second at Bay Hill as well yeah he had a terrible Masters in his first go it happens again if you remove Scotty sheffler from this planet Windam clarks’s won five times in the last year like including the US Open he’s 30 to1 to win another US Open that’s literally the perfect venue for him so what are we doing with this number what the disrespect just continues I don’t understand how it’s happened it happened at qua this week it was double the odds of Xander and Rory basically he’s been playing better than both of them they he’s won three times more than both of them this year like it’s it’s wild so I I think from what we’ve discerned so far with some of these players we’re going to start rapid firing through like play or fade bet or pass to try to get to some more of these names but Bryson Windam morawa and Brooks are probably the short list players of the players that we’ve talked about so far yes there’ll be some it’s looking like I’m going to have some combination of those three starting with Brooks that I’ll rotate the I’ll figure out exactly who the other two or three might be um love that call do you think it’s going to be Walkin Neiman who the bloom is off the rose a little bit for him it feels like although this is a much better situation for him than Augusta National yes it is but his t16 at Augusta National being his best finish in a major is just not adequate enough for any sort of thing I’m I’m out until further notice it’s Hey listen you can spin that positively he’s coming off the best Major Performance of his career not but not even the t16 was the year before like if 22nd like you know as a top five gol in the world in his interviews like where’s this at bro like where’s the T20 you got freaking like um Jose Maria Lazo like on your ass like what are we doing the number is too short 33 to one’s the best you’re going to find and that’s like off brand at sports books it’s usually like 28 to 30 that probably gets up to 40 by the time it comes around but I would just want more I don’t for all the talk that he’s a top 10 player in the world maybe he is when I did my rankings he wasn’t I think he was actually I think I had him at number 10 but I even after what we’ve seen a little bit I think there are just players who are better than him down this list yes in majes maybe if we playing like a random like at the Genesis particularly or something like that maybe we go there but at a major you got a t16 as your best thing but like that’s not good enough that’s really not going to help you get across the line uh I bet on Hideki at the Masters that obviously did not go well however he did make the cut and cash might to make the cut parlay that’s really I mean it’s the last time that we saw him before Quail Hollow so we’ll see how he does with a month off but besides Sheffer and Clark he was the best player on tour this year yeah and with very weird his first top 10 happened in the space of 12 months was when he won at Genesis so very impressive stuff and then I think he entered Augusta with eight top 20s in the last like nine appearances there and then missed it this week or that that you know this year I love him particularly at us opens though Pat you know I I I know we’re going to Rapid Fire right off this but I did a quick thing where I looked up Sam Burns’s Strokes gain putting versus the best Strokes game putting at any other event across the PGA Tour there’s only one other person that has a better Strokes game category than Sam Burns at an event and it’s Hadi miyama on Approach at us opens he’s gaining more Strokes on Approach at us opens and Sam Burns gains putting at the valpar so wild stuff there with the Dei I’ve bet a US Open on him or when we get there sure but if we’re just going to take a look at the market right now and see that Hideki you can get as low as 35 to1 that maybe if we’re going to compare the PGA Championship and the US Open that maybe we do take the plunge the nesty plunge on Hideki the the nesty yeah i’ I’d probably go to the other guys ahead of him you know that we’ve mentioned so far he’s just a little unreliable in my opinion I don’t know it’s I get scared when I think about him you know at 66 I’m cool 30 I know I’m being stingy but I’m not a not a big hicki guy okay I am a big hicki guy but I’m not there yet get with him we’ll see what the card looks like on Monday once we start finalizing some of these decisions two-time PGA PGA Championship winner wan to makeer Trophy Hoyer Justin Thomas is up next he’s 40 to1 or 35 to1 depending on where you’re going to be looking best on Market is 40 to1 at Caesars not a lot of people have Caesars so 35 to1 is probably the best number that you’re going to find I mean I was betting him earlier on in the year he went through some sort of ungodly streak of not making a bogey what is it about the setups from the PGA of America that Justin Thomas just loves I don’t know I think maybe it allows him to make a charge you know I think if you look at how he’s done his last few wins The Players PJ Championship was all from like a million miles behind so maybe it allows you to score while there’s still punishment for bad shots so if you’re a good golfer maybe you’re going to enjoy those conditions so I think that’s what he’s shown us so what you’re saying is that just Thomas is a better bet Sunday morning than he would be before the tournament facts don’t bet him pre tournament bet him live when he’s a million miles behind I like that that bet him at maybe on the cut sweat show that you know if he’s like 45 to one yet only like five Strokes behind that might be the time to invest in some Justin Thomas local guy too you know he’s going to be a part of a lot of packages interviews sometimes that ratchets up the pressure for a lot of people and we just don’t see a lot of success when that happens yeah and sometimes it gets s to a slow start you know because of that stuff then you get in your groove without the the media obligations and off you go so perfect situation for him Max H is also 40 to1 coming off of his best major championship performance that is two consecutive top 10 at Majors he had his best performance at the Open Championship finally got the monkey off his back to get the top 10 he parlayed that through with another top 10 and being in the final group at Augusta National I think he was in the final group that or the second to last group one of the two he was there at the back end of Sunday we watched him when him morawa and ludvig all made horrendous bogeys or doubles at the exact same time and then it was just over all of a sudden and Scotty Sheffer had won do you like him here because he has played it’s funny when I think of his skill set US Open and PGA Championship doesn’t like ring a bell for me but when when you look at where he’s won in his career be it Tory Pines he’s had great success at bahill he’s now just done it at Augusta he’s won at Riv he’s won at Quail Hollow these are the courses where he wins yeah and the thing is he does it with bll striking too sometimes the shows up sometimes it doesn’t now that we starting to see this major track record kind of Blossom for him I mean we’ve seen this guy get in the like we speaking about Cantley and Xander and the guys not being able to get across the line when this dude is in the mix he gets across the line he’s a Savage you know only John Ram at the Genesis kind of can keep him out the winner circle so he’s starting to gain some momentum I bet him at Quail so it’s it’s going to be a fun time to see how his next few weeks kind of unfold well he did just gag the Masters away and it wasn’t really John r that ran him down at Rivier it was John ROM with the intentional bounces off the stands behind a hole to bounce onto the green to beat Max H that was one of the most disgusting shots I’ve ever seen like when you flare out of some guy’s beer cup and two feet for Eagle makes me want to throw up thinking about it but it is what it is in the past is Wills alatus an autobat at PGA championships in US opens yes an absolute Auto bit and I think everyone’s worried about injury this would have been his sixth start at the PJ championship in a row so skipping the byr Nelson at birdie Fest for will zures makes complete sense so I think his back’s okay the flare up is like a fake flare up and he’s 40 to1 you know I think he’s won a PJ to event he’s been what three second place finishes now in Majors this dude is a major Game Hunter and I love love that number I mean 40 to1 I’ll take him over over Colin morawa any day I I think as much as I love Mora and the fact that Mora is a two major winner I just think just based on what we’ve seen from zotor is the type of tournaments where he plays well he’s not he’s I mean it’s not that cheffer couldn’t win a minus 25 tournament I really think that there is no chance that will zorus could win a minus 25 winning score tournament just not GNA happen no so why even play the the CJ cup Byron Nelson the TPC Bunny Ranch you know that does make no sense so yeah decision I love him here so looking back since 2021 between the US Open and PGA Championship the leaders in Strokes gain total per round Scotty Sheffer is number one Rory is tied for second with Will zotes yep it’s too good man and and when you take a look at his approach numbers in PJ and US Open championships he’s getting 1.63 Strokes on approach and half a stroke off the tea it’s really really culating it’s like reliable stuff you know that’s why you kind of like him in these big boy events because that’s going to show up all the time the the short game stuffff may or may not so yeah the N the numbers nice he’s gonna win a major in the next two three years it’s happening cam young is up next on the betting board 45 to one is the best number you can find but the average is right around 35 I would guess that breaches 40 by the time everyone settles on what happens unless he has a fantastic performance at the Wells Fargo Championship I kind of put him in the same tier as will zator in a weird way where when you just look at his major track record what is he now seven or five for eight top 10 in major championships yes five top 10 and a second and another top five two top fives like he’s been he’s going to win his first tournament in a major it’s going to be like that’s how he gets across the line I don’t think it’s going to be the valpa it’s going to be the US Open or the the open like or this week I don’t know but I’m not going to bet him I’m going to wait for him to do it but I mean when he gets when he gets into these big boy tournaments as well like we starting to get into the thick of these guys that really shine I mean he’s he’s second or third off the team in these big boy tournaments like that’s just an auto starting on first second base situation there so if he can keep his the rest of his game firing be looking good I bet I’m to win Quail Hollow I’ve been like one foot in one foot out on cam young it depends on really what the number is the the moment he starts skyrocketing up the board I’m usually out on cam young but when he lingers in that 35 to 50 Area I’m usually an auto in because again you just you get so many reps at the top of the leaderboard when you’re going to be there is all these second place finishes the major championship stuff has been really good that maybe the bet is a lot like Xander maybe you just bet him top 10 at the PGA Championship and don’t even think about the outright but I really do think that he could break through yeah I mean he’s shown that he’s got close so many times and he just needs to get a bit of luck maybe he gets like two or three you know te times ahead of the winners the leaders going into Sunday and kind of post a number and and gets lucky you know I think at a at a tough venue like this guys can stumble down the down the stretch a US Open Champion Matt Fitzpatrick is 45 to one playing better golf since some basically since the tour went to Florida he’s been a lot better than he was during the West Coast Swing but it hasn’t been great at the same time either he has the skills to do it this we know we’ve seen it but it will be a pass for me on Matt Fitzpatrick yes for me too you don’t know what you’re going to be getting and the the safet you know you got to give a guy got to bet on a guy that’s going to be in contention and he’s just not consistent enough right now Dustin is 45 to one as high as $50 to one I think you’re going to see him fall even further than that down the board like what he won in Vegas in the second live Tournament of the season that’s really all he’s done all year that’s that’s not great yeah yeah so pass easy easy situation you know just look historical major track record good recent track record Majors not so good Fleetwood is the next name on the board 50 to1 is the best number that you’re going to find on him at the moment I mean is there ever a point to bet Tommy to win a tournament Sunday morning when he goes and shoots the third 63 of PGA Championship or Us open history and finished second again when it doesn’t like had no chance to win you know like this is I mean that cheesy smile is just hilarious you know that’s I finished second again I’m so sorry you know like but here we are with Tommy fatwood so he’s a Xander situation top 10 he’s been top 10 like crazy but just cannot get across the board there cannot get into the winner circle and well it’s weird because his approach game this year is kind of actually what I talked about with the Galla where when you see his approach numbers on the screen they’re in the negatives but he gained a bunch at the Masters which doesn’t get included because of official shot length data but he gained a bunch at Valero almost five Strokes on approach then he loses over five at Heritage he loses eight at Bay Hill but then gains at Riv like he’s just all over the map but the driving in the around the green has been solid so for safety purposes I I think a top 20 is probably the better bet I guess top five if you really want to get rid risky and of course he can win but that will not be getting my money this time around TL Hatton has started to show some life he showed some life at the Masters he’s been showing some life on Liv recently how do you feel about his game with the way that these courses set up he’s exceptionally good out of the rough when his long irons are firing he’s like the way his swing comes in there he’s he’s really really solid out the rough when I remember he was on tour we don’t have those numbers recently obviously but the the chances are there but also Pat just not enough wins in general like not even on the PGA T not even on the DP not on live they haven’t seen him win forever so I need to have seen someone do something for me recently before I want to see him win a major what about Shane Lowry because he’s kind of in the same bucket he did just win can’t discount that but he is his game I mean dude can’t make a putt so that’s a real problem and that’s nothing new when you’re losing almost a half stroke per round on the greens you’re gonna be in a lot of trouble and that doesn’t include his Masters performance where I think he lost 10 Strokes putting but the T green has been amazing and when you talk about guys that play well out of the rough he’s one of those guys in the short game it’s Immaculate just make the putt man just make the Putt and then just hit the shot when it matters too you know we saw at you know the Honda the guy the day before had his second best ball striking like ironplate round of his career and then goes and looks like a hacker out there when he has to close out the tournament so I just I think he’s also just broken upstairs to win tournaments feno is having a better year than I think that people may realize the putter has just it was broken it’s starting to get a little bit better the stats I mean the stats are actually more generous in his favor right now he’s losing 73 Strokes per round on the greens it was like one per round at a certain point this year but the TD green game when you look at it is up there with almost the very I mean the sheffler excluded he is in the top 10 T green and that’s what we’re looking for at this tournament he hasn’t really clicked for me so far this year is a guy that I’ve wanted to bet on so that probably means that I’m not going to bet him at a major championship but I do like him DraftKings wise do you think that he could win this no he doesn’t have a second place finish in a major even so I mean that I’m usually only going to be betting guys if they’ve done first or second you know I think that’s going to be my secret source and when you’re around the green play is like as good as your approach play which is only half a stroke in these US Open PJ championships it’s just not working for me um sorry Tony um I’ll bet you at the Mexico next year again or something yeah Jason day is up next I just think he’s playing too poorly yep pass okay s the gala who I did bet on to win this tournament I just like where his numbers are coming in 66 to1 is a very good number for a guy that once we get to the week of unless he has the most disastrous Wells Fargo that you could imagine that it’s probably going to be 40 to one people and listen I you there’s some cache in trying to pick the guy that breaks through next I understand that I’m obviously trying to do that with siah but I see where it’s coming from with him I frankly it is shocking to me watching him play and seeing his numbers how he actually loses Strokes around the green on average it’s it’s because he’s like sculling them into the water from the bunker you know that’s he he like loses Two Strokes on a shot like quickly and then chips in two times the next round so it’s all over the place with him it’s what magic happens you know that’s how he’s going to do he’s just major track records a little bit of a concern to me I’ll be betting him top five top 10 at the like at the PGA because I think he can do it I just don’t know if he can win a PGA Championship with you know the The Limited um major track record he does have well to to look back at his major track record from a year ago he did end up making the cut at the Masters this year what’ he finish he finished T45 that’s not great he was top 10 in his debut at the Masters ended up finishing T9 and to take a look at what he did at the PGA and the US Open his first time around a year ago is actually quite intriguing sta I istically to look at it based on the player that he is now versus the player that he was then so at the PGA Championship last year at oakill he gained almost four strokes on approach he gained around the green he gained marginally on the greens he lost two strokes off the T to take a look at at the US Open he gained almost four strokes on approach gained marginally around the green gained marginally on the greens lost Strokes off the te he hasn’t I guess he lost Strokes off the tea at the Heritage when he came second and pushed with the field but he has gained off the te and in 16 of his past 18 events like he’s a different guy with the driver in his hand now if you haven’t been watching golf for the last five weeks I’m now here to tell you that siah the gala is as good a driver of a golf ball as he is a putter literally that’s the ranking he is at quel this week he’s very good driving the golf ball he’s got tons of distance he’s going to be a I can’t wait to watch him play match play because his game just translate so well to that kind of stuff he’s so exciting he’s one of my favorite golfers on the PJ tour so would do you think that you will end up betting him at 66 along with me I’ll be at the top five um that’s how I’m I’m sticking to my rule Pat I need top five finishes or top top two finishes in Maes if I’m going to bet you if you’re out there and you want to come along on sah train with me now is the time to bet it before Quail Hollow ends where you’re watching this show prepping for next week at the PGA Championship that’s what you got to do benan is next T to Green wise one of the better players on tour driving distance-wise top five of all players in this field it’s not who you think of when you think of plenty of distance fineberg said that we should do a show where we rank the least trustworthy players on the PGA tour and I think he had benan ranked number one why least trustworthy guy to pick up your Pharmaceuticals I think that’s definitely been on for you um what he got suspended for three months or something in the offseason because he had some Korean like cough medicine or something that got him jacked as [ __ ] so I don’t know exactly what his situation is but also only two top 20s in Maes since 2017 no top 10 so um gonna need a bit more from benan what about minwoo Lee minwoo Lee as he prefers to be called the chef himself Ian he has the right game here but his approach play is so weird to me that it’s either it’s one of the worst in the field six out of seven weeks and then somehow it’s the best in the field yeah he’s like good shot rate versus his Strokes gained is like completely on two different sides of the spectrums right like he’s just Immaculate volatile you never know what you’re G to get you got to be a minu guy if you’re going there I’m out on him I just hasn’t been playing well only W top 20 this this season so far I’m out on Sam Burns too did he do we know if he ever had the baby like these these wives are these two guys they’re just like carrying around these kids forever I I don’t think so he’s playing this week I would be shocked if you’ve just had a kid and want to play Quail like I don’t know yeah so he’s 75 to one like the numbers are starting to get right it’s just what has Burns ever done at a major nothing so yeah good enough for me to take a pass the the reigning Championship golfer of the year Brian Haron not the venue I want him for no he’s gonna have to hit every single Fairway if he misses one he’s not winning this so yeah and Easy Pass I’m going to lump sunjay into Easy Pass territory with Brian Herman yeah he did he won Kore good and then probably caught Co on the on the plane back again for the second time in in two years so congrats to that scheduling stuff there but what I do want to mention is SEIU and SJ typically haven’t thrived in majes because if they win one they could have got their um military exemption but they landed up winning the Asia games which was probably a lot easier to do anyway so now those guys are going to be playing without the restrictions of having to go shoot other people with bullets so you know I think it might be easier to succeed at a major championship without that stress so we’ll see what these guys can get up to but SJ hasn’t been playing well in general but just want to mention those about SEIU and SJ well see well let’s talk about SEIU because the guy can’t putt but his TD green game is out of this world good yes he’s like one of those guys that if he has a good putting week his T green game not necessarily being the longest in the world but he’s hyper accurate like look at what he gets to the te there he’s not a very long driver of the golf ball so he does it with accuracy so the recipes is there he can sneak through the the path is harder that’s why he’s 100 to1 but definitely got it you know like but his upside lately has been well he hasn’t been finishing inside the top five a lot in pj2 events but we’ve seen him just win randomly too so a lot of stuff going on yeah he’s it’s funny because I always used to compare him to Rory where you know when Rory is locked in basically you can tell when Rory is going to win a tournament because he hits everything to two feet and goes and Taps it in he just goes insane and shoots nine under in a round it’s like well he’s the best player in the world when he’s playing his best it’s not even close like Scotty will just hit everything to like six feet then you’re still like kind of sweating the putt a little bit like Rory’s are no deers they are legitimate tap-ins on these approach shot it happens like once a year now it used to happen a whole lot more often for Rory for SEIU it happens once every two years but you see it and you’re like oh my God he’s locked in and he’s not going to miss it’s a Korean media sh and it’s beautiful I I I can’t explain it to you at triple digits though I can see why that guy is intriguing versus some of the guys that we just mentioned at like 40 to one correct I mean you barely have to lay anything I’d join you on that you know I could I could pocket five bucks on that you know versus a siah um but I guess siah at 66 you know I’d probably go to that over the SEIU 100 if I’m being honest yeah I would too and I’ve already done that that’s why it doesn’t mean you can’t play them both See’s best finish at a PGA Championship is T 13 his best finish out of US Open also t13 does he have a top 10 in a major sewo in Maes I’m scrolling he’s all the way down yeah I don’t see yeah it’s not it’s not good top three top 20s no top 10 since 2017 yeah he has 25 STS he has a top 15 in every major but he has no top 10 yeah so yeah probably that’s the thing that’s what you get from him just bet him top 20 top 30 at at the PJ I mean I don’t bet Adam Scott in a real week so there’s no way I’m betting him at a PGA Championship yeah he’s not winning on PGA 12 again I don’t think oh he might win the Open Championship this year to avenge his loss in 2013 when and beats Phil Mickelson again um with the only you know but yeah I don’t know Tom Kim Tom Kim yes or no yes okay interesting tell me why Majors like he he’s also one of these guys I don’t know what last year was wasn’t necessarily playing the greatest golf but he’s got a T2 at the open last year so that means he’s got what I need to bet a guy and he’s 90 to1 hasn’t been playing good golf though I mean look at that that’s disgusting but um we you know I’ll definitely be looking to get exposure to him in a major at that price somehow but I don’t think I’ll bet him outright but I like him all right so there’s a plenty of other players in this field I I guess we we were missed to talk about the next four or so and then we can kind of really get into it do you have any opinions on Nikolai hoard this week who played really well at Augusta until he didn’t he also finished top three at Tory Pines earlier this year and that’s it that’s literally the Highlight re you know so whether or not you kind of like those two Spike performances or not I don’t know if I can help you there I’m out okay how about Patrick Reed who got a special exemption into this tournament it’s not the MERS I’m out Keegan Bradley who has done nothing since the Sony Open yeah out okay Cory Connors peculiar peculiar I don’t you know interesting not to win but definitely we’ll we’ll be clicking somewhere for him DFS lineups top 4S or something that that just feels like his Destiny isn’t it just like great DFS play yeah like he’s his dad will be like I’m so proud of you Cory good job I talked to my dad about because he’s very interested in Canadian golfers I was talking to Tambo about I can’t remember if it was on the show or before the show that if you had to pick a Canadian to win a major who would you pick and my answer was weird I think weird or Weir it’s not Weir I mean he did win a major but then that that was over 20 years ago now Connors is the answer because if he just somehow like when he wins Valero and he wins it by a ton it’s like oh my God he actually made putts this week this is amazing but weirdly I think the answer is MC Hughes close I would say Nick Taylor would be my guy but I would probably put McKenzie Hughes ahead of ahead of Cory though even it just yeah to win a major and like when you’re such a lesser Talent than the very top end guys you need to have some sort of weird outlier for you to do it and with M Hughes he kind of has the spe way of winning where once they start rolling in from 60 feet they all kind of start rolling in from 60 feet this is a Nicholas designed course too a place where he’s had a ton of success at Nicholas courses in the in the past and he does well in his tough chippy spots you know he’s great at scrambling chipping for Eagles anywhere and we’ve seen him know he has a top 10 at the Open Championship the year that morawa won I believe he finished top 10 at Tory Pines as well or at least he was in the final group going into the second the last day he has ball stuck in the tree yeah you know tough scenes for him but I I like him a lot in these Scrappy situations Pat all right so that’s not bad how about batia I mean he’s playing so well but I mean what he’s not nothing in Majors you know obviously not because he has done nothing he’s hadn’t opportunities to do so so just because of that I’m out for the win top 20 definitely on the cards like you said like he’s been top 20 or bust pretty much all the way through the season so top 20 bet there is an absolute yes he won the junior Championship at Valla by the way I think like four years ago yeah looked as skinny as he is now hasn’t hasn’t grown an ounce he was somehow skinnier In that clip that I watched when he was chipping in I I don’t know how that’s possible but he was I’ll I’ll wear my glasses the next time I take a peek of Twitter but yeah I could be talked into baa because the next guys on the list are like Jagger gu Fowler answer and that’s probably the cut off of where we need to talk about with these guys because I think all those guys are people that you would have considered at some point they’re all going to be in the triple digits in terms of betting on DraftKings they’re all going to be 72 7100 and they’re popular in their own rights for different reasons I really think this is Gucci’s Last Stand that they gave him this exemption to shut him the hell up like you missed the cut again pal you’re done yeah he’s walking the plank at Valhalla that’s essentially what’s happening do you like any of those guys though because I I know you liked Fowler at Wells Fargo do you like him again at a place where he came third the last time they played it see this is a thing is Ricky starting to find some bit of a form but I just don’t think he’ll ever win a major like what he did at the US Open last year was disgusting like show an ounce of Life Ricky but you know top 20s I think we can start getting back into that situation a lot of these guys down here Pat I’m not going to be betting too many long shots at a major you know just the world we’re living in right now I think the the spots that are going to be winning are shorter than like 40 roughly we need to talk about tiger and Phil both are in the field do you think any of them make the cut here they both made the cut at the Masters my full Nicholson to make the cut at all four Mages is live baby so I’m I’m hopeful he’s a he’s a wildly old Fox you know like borrowing whatever he’s done recently ethically morally whatever like the guy can ball when he’s playing good golf and major championships is when he when he’s you know um brain stem lights the hell up so I need three more M cuts from Phil I could see him doing it I could see him being last in this one not last there as bunch of PGA professionals here but just trying to think is there anyone that we didn’t touch on in this field that you do have genuine interest interes in like the guy who just won back toback on Cor Ferry and got a special exemption whatever that guy’s name is no I I need pedigree from you I need absolute pedigree maybe like a Justin Rose is someone that could like from a DFS perspective just absolutely show up out of nowhere like a bit of a Harris English situation I think these are all like high high volatility guys that you can roster but I wouldn’t necessarily bet to win um yeah I think we’ve pretty much covered the majority of of the people we want to chat about yeah yeah I did want to talk about Dean burmaster who got in with a special live exemption I think a lot of people when they think of burmaster they think of him as a guy who just kind of like popped up in Majors or random like Puerto Rico tournaments because he’d been a DP World Tour player but he’s legitimately been excellent the past like I would have bet Louie to win this tournament had he had accepted his invitation but obviously that wasn’t the case he has other things to do apparently like cut his lawn I guess but burmaster has been awesome he won Dural that’s a big boy course he went to South Africa and he won over on the DP World Tour as well outside of what he’s been doing on Liv so and the Liv performance has been really good every single week very consistent do we like burmaster like I think of all these guys at the back end he might be the one with the most upside first round leader berm I’ll do that because I think I’ve spotted him at the top of a major I think the US Open he was flirting with the top of the board um at Southern Southern Hills when JT won I think after round one he was right at the top and I think he’s a different golfer now I think he’s confident he hits at a million miles too so yes I think um first round leader for him for sure not a lot of major experience he did make the cut last year t-54 at the PGA Championship was t11 at the open in 2022 missed the cut at the 2022 PGA Championship uh Miss cut 59th 40th at the open so you mixed I wouldn’t even say mixed results bad results overall but better over the last little bit for the bur Mista Mista lady and then to take a look hey there’s his name right there you see I sort by Jack Nicholas designed courses Dean berm average round number three in the field because he played one round at the MX one year and gained four strokes on the field yeah I do like the co fit though he’s good got tons of distance yeah toasty has ton of distance like if if that’s just the way that we do it and if we’re thinking about guys at the back endend cheaper plays that you can have on DraftKings for the week the way that you probably want to do it is go to the bottom and just sort by driving distance yes exactly because those guys don’t have an elite skill that will get them out of the hole that they don’t have driving distance in the guys that do have distance yes love that strategy Pat so the players that you’re looking for let me click off Jack Nicholas and just go to I I when I whenever I search driving distance gained on fantasy National I like to take a longer sample of like 50 rounds because sometimes you can get to I mean it is gained versus the field but you know Scotty might be hitting a seven iron off the te at Heritage other guys are hitting three-wood just cuz he can and that’s not really helping us but once you get it over the longer sample of time the better off it’s going to be so Bryson’s the best then you got Rory minwoo I don’t know if got got in the field or not benan bur Easter Windam Clark then you got toasty woodland pendrith who just won no one wanted to use pendrith at Quail Hollow no one’s GNA want to use him next week unless he has a really good week at qua Hollow why not pendrith yep why not pendrith Tron perfectly playing with confidence it’s the second tournament after he’s won but we are like a little bit more is Ryan FOX also tons of distance I I I do this I do this too much man he’s so bad he’s so bad he’s so bad so bad but in random situations like at the Masters the guy’s just like oh hi my name’s Ryan Fox I’d like to put my name into the ring potentially win a green jacket for the first day and a half yeah like you know I think major championships is not PJ tour it’s it’s different situation foxy maybe feels like he’s back in Aussie I don’t know um just worth a shot no one will be on him all right that will do it on the pat Mayo experience player by player preview Byron you will be on with Kenny on Mayo media Network on the fantasy golf degenerates I’ll give you guys the full list of giveaways again code Mayo at Underdog fantasy Instagram account you can find all of the stuff literally in the description to go do it but outside of the fantasy golf degenerate show what do you have going on at Roto ballers for this week yeah baby I’ve got tons I’ll have my model out there for you which will have all sorts of fun nuggets all these top major finishes all that kind of stuff win rates betting odds I’ll have my back nine bets podcast I’ll be doing a deep dive of majority of these guys the guys we never really got to kind of just seeing if there’s any nuggets out there so follow me on Back N bets on on YouTube and then at ro.com you can find all my stuff over there and then X I’ll be at the model Maniac a ton of great content coming from Byron this we make sure everyone go follow him over atth model Maniac on X parenthesis formerly known as Twitter close parenthesis I am at the pme on Twitter and Instagram and everywhere else Mayo media Network on Instagram and Tik Tok you follow both you get into the drop that’s easy the Mayo media newsletter which have a ton of information on like Byron said the back end of the field New stats that come out course research all the Articles all the bats all the underdog plays that you can either tail or fade do whatever you want with the information and you get your ballot into the draw to get the fantasy National the 500 bucks or whatever it might be so please help out the show by Smashing the like subbing the channel sharing everything around and using Code mayo and Underdog fantasy okay that was just show one of six for the year’s second major so stay tuned on Mayo media Network and I we’ll see you next time experience experience

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    13:55 Rory McIlroy
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  2. GOOCH for the win!! This is his moment to prove it, so much on the line. I think he does it, what a week for LIV

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