2024 Wells Fargo Championship BEST BETS & PICKS! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The 2024 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club!

0:00 Intro
1:25 Storylines for the Wells Fargo Championship
9:00 DFS Picks
15:00 First Round Leader
20:00 Tournament Matchups
27:00 Finishing Positions
32:00 Outright Winner
40:00 Longshot Picks

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e [Music] welcome to the early webs presented by B MGM I am your host Eric Cohen otherwise known as EC make sure to like this video And subscribe to the Sportsline YouTube page there’s so many good things uh coming up here in the next few weeks months and Beyond on this page so check us out and plus we have the host of early Edge on this program so you want to at least you know check that out every day at 10: a.m. eastern but let’s bring in the stars of the show we have the great Patrick McDonald from CBS Sports a genius golf writer check out he also writes for sports line and puts out great columns that sell a lot of subscriptions so good job with that and the great CAD who is the host of the early Edge uh every weekday Monday through Friday 10: a uh on this channel uh we’ll start with you seea we have another elevated event here in Charlotte Patrick is on site uh I just I kind of want to get right into your storyline because it it kind of was the first topic I was going to go to nonetheless so Scotty sheffer’s wife is having the baby now I mean sometime this week or maybe Patrick knows more about that nonetheless um he’s not around so what does this mean for everybody else oh well I don’t know what Patrick knows about uh Scotty’s uh home life but that would be incredible if you did know that stuff let’s let’s talk about this EC I mean I’m gonna I’m gonna answer your question but the chat is so on top of it right because my storyline is okay we have a Scotty list tournament again like who’s going to take advantage of that and what’s interesting is I think I have some intriguing names both in DFS and in the outright Market that for the record could completely Crash and Burn and I’m not going to give away which comment here addresses maybe somebody that I like that pretty much the rest of the market doesn’t but I do think there is room for some of these Superstars that haven’t been Superstars to really pick up their game at Wells Fargo because I do think it’s kind of a a course that caters to the elite golfer right we know we’re going to have length out here I think you got to be solid with the putter around the green game I’m not super like not a huge emphasis on that but the ball striking certainly has to be there and I think there’s some guys that have had poor 2024 form where I’m seeing that there’re such a good course fit I think they can rebound but nonetheless is it going to be Rory is it going to be Xander is it going to be somebody like kley or Max hom who’s had success here or Victor havland or Colin morawa like this is the time to strike right because there’s no Scotty shuffler and I didn’t even mention Windam Clark there’s no just sort of intimidation Factor on Sunday oh I got to hit every shot perfectly because if I don’t Scotty sheffler is going to win this tournament so I think actually I hate to say it I love the tournaments without Scotty sheffler because he’s too good and I do think some of these guys do get intimidated by the moment on Sunday but without him some of these guys can rise up all right now Patrick you’re on site you’re in Charlotte uh you’re gonna be there it’s uh what’s the weather like and what is your storyline uh the beautiful Queen City e see found found out today that’s what uh the nickname is Charlotte doesn’t really get a lot of runs these days I feel like I haven’t met a Charlotte in a while um so maybe we’ll bring that name back this year maybe not but uh my story line is I looked at the forecast this week to pack it looked great Sunny mid 80s that’s like fantastic brought a pair of white shoes today I step out of my car into a big fat pile of mud it is wet there at Quail Hollow uh they resurfaced the greens so these are new greens these guys are putting on so they’re still pretty firm and fiery despite the amount of rain but uh even Xander shafley talked today he was saying how normally balls in the fair fairway they will cream into bunkers roll out into the rough there’s like barely any rough out here uh but they’re really just stopping wherever they land and that will only lead I think to the bombers having even more of an advantage right I mean this is a golf course that can stretch to 7600 yards that’s one of the longest on the PJ tour it already plays very difficult and then you have guys like a Rory Macky wendam Clark cam young I watched it I just watched him hit drives for like five minutes today it’s just a different sound off that guy’s Club face guys like that who can have the added carry distance they’re gonna have a lot of success this week and that is the Insight you get on this program from one Patrick McDonald and and of course C NAD I mean that I didn’t even look at the forecast and usually I kind of do that and I should have known with Charlotte and that part of the country it kind of rains I mean you know in the Southeast it rains you know quite often but that’s to think about a course that’s this long and this is one of the longest courses on tour at over 7,500 yards it’s a great point that you make the the no rolling out that the shorter hitters unless they’re incredible long iron players going to struggle all right so here’s my storyline I want to ask you both about this one should should we be wary of betting certain players to win who haven’t in well over a year at Short odds and how short of odds are too short so my example is Ander scha who hasn’t won in almost two years is plus 900 this week see I’ll start with you just because of that logic I mean a guy hasn’t won since 2022 at less than 10 to one you can’t bet him can you well I don’t think you can bet him at less than 10 to one I I agree with you because listen if he was first of all I’ll say this if you think he’s gonna win then you should bet him whether it’s 10 to one or whether it’s 16 to1 or which is probably where I think it should well I think it should probably be in like maybe the 14 to1 range the thing about Xander shof and the thing about golf in general is if you’re putting yourself in a position and usually in Xander’s case it’s or a lot of times in Xander’s case it’s like a backo top five backo top 10 uh but he without Scotty sheffler definitely has a chance to compete here and and I think the numberers probably too short I’m not betting him but I I would have no issue with somebody saying listen he’s been inside the top five inside the top 10 at these Elite events these Signature Events these Majors way too often now it’s time for him to actually get a win like that that that’s a fine argument I’m not betting him though Patrick when you bet uh uh singles and not you know throwing parlays in there like you look at ca’s pick on the early Edge this morning was Met’s first five you want to Parlay that with Zander and get you know 25 to one hey I’m good with that that’s that’s good value and you’re probably gonna win the first part because C you picked it on the morning show but Patrick when you’re betting just straight out no parlays which obviously is a recommended way to do it what is your rule on betting guys that haven’t won in a long time uh I don’t know if I have a rule I will say if you better Xander shafley that’s probably like the only guy you’re going to bet this week at that number right nine to one you’re pretty much putting all your exposure on Xander shafley and if you’re comfortable doing that and like ca said if you think he’s going to win The Golf Tour Tournament who am I to tell you not to do it right but I’d rather just spread the wealth a little bit bet on four guys in the 69 man field who probably have the same amount of winning Equity if not more combined than Xander shley uh to NAB this golf tournament before we get into DFS I want to ask you would would both of you have taken Oar anywhere if he had been in the tournament yes my card was going to be ludvig and I mean I’ll just give it away right now because it’ll be it’ll be funny going into this this DFS portion since I’ve seen Patrick’s picks as of five minutes ago uh but my two plays were going to be ludvig and Windham Clark um okay spoiler alert Windam Clark is still one of my plays I have two other plays now uh which of course you’ll have to wait and see but I really liked L big uh this week a lot how about you Patrick uh yeah he he opened at what like 14ish I think something like that yeah I looked at that number for a very long time but uh it was hard to look past him this week that’s for sure I even would have bet that you see real quick I I even would have bet that at plus 1100 because one thing and this is a little like shopping down narrative Street a little bit but like there are guys and we’ll talk about it later that can close on Sunday and guys that just can’t meet the moment and again I know people might say well yeah that’s that’s what we’ve seen so far they can turn it around but like when I’m watching it I feel like I see guys that are really seizing the moment and guys that are just kind of like doing their best to seize the moment but they just can’t get there ludig is one of those guys that’s so good that there is no seizing of the moment he’s just sort of like like Patrick says he’s like artificial intelligence he’s just sort of on autopilot and and that really and Scotty sheffer’s a similar way those types of guys I’m willing to take at shorter odds because I don’t think they’re going to crumble in the moment Xander Rory I mean listen I know Ro like these guys have a good track record but I gotta be honest there’s some guys in this tournament and and L big was in this tournament that I might want to take if they’re even on Sunday oneon-one all right let’s get into DFS here and see I’ll start with you I’m kind of surprised because you’re both fading a player I kind of like this week uh see you’re fading Tommy Fleetwood now I’m gonna give you a stat and I’ll repeat this later in the show he’s played Seven tournaments in the US this year three top 10 four starts outside the top 30 is that I mean the ultimate Boomer bust guy is that why you’re fading him this week well that’s the thing he’s not the ultimate Boomer bust guy because he can’t win I mean listen I’m looking I’m looking for Spike potential here and I’m looking for guys that are going to be not super popular in DFS and I don’t know that Tommy fleetwood’s going to be incredibly popular but he’s certainly going to be more popular than the guy that I just listed at the top of my board which I’ll talk about in a second Tommy Fleetwood just doesn’t seem like a guy in a signature event that’s going to take down a win now granted he’s only 9500 he doesn’t have to win he could top six or top four or top seven and he he’s probably has a good chance to pay off his price but I’m just not like in the outright Market too his odds were like getting shorter and shorter I’m just not interested in Tommy Fleetwood when I have some of these big guns in the field whether Scotty’s in it or not the Victor hin play I think people are looking at that and they’re like all right what are we doing here here’s the thing about Victor hin like nobody’s gonna play him and we’re playing DFS right listen he might get some ownership it might creep up a little bit but the reality is nobody knows where Victor hins G game is and and the last we’ve seen of Victor hin which oh by the way was over three weeks ago when he missed the cut at the Masters that’s a long time in my opinion by the way but you know he wasn’t good he missed the cut like I just said I think this is a really good course fit for Victor hoflin I think not a lot of people are GNA play him in DFS I I think we could make an assumption that the three weeks off was you know very intentional for him to get his game back a little bit and maybe he’s got it when it when it comes to Superstars I think they can flip the switch if it’s a middling player I’m not looking for them to flip the switch I don’t think there’s a switch to flip Victor hland as of six months ago was one of the top two or three players in the world and frankly because he’s such a good course fit I think he’ll gain some confidence with his off the te game he might gain some confidence with his good long iron play he might gain some confidence with his greens and regulation which he still rates out pretty well at uh so at 9200 if people aren’t going to play him I think he can win the tournament so I’m G to play him AA B I’ll keep this one short we’ll talk about him later in the show this guy is a menace with the ball striking he can absolutely pop and the best part is over his last five tournaments he’s been very consistently gaining with the putter so I’m getting a guy who can Spike you talked about Spike potential Boomer bust I’m getting a guy that can boom over four rounds by the way this is a no cut event boom over four rounds but has showed really good consistency with the putter it’s like the perfect combination for DFS and potentially for other markets as well Matthew pavan’s my next guy at 6,500 I just think he’s underpriced I will say there’s a lot of guys in this r range that I like including Cameron Davis including Kurt kyama we talked about length Matthew Pavan certainly has that but Cam Davis and kyama have that as well and I gotta say Cam Davis has been playing pretty well over his last few tournaments but pavon we’ve seen him win we’ve seen him the spike Potential from him and I think 6500 is drastically underpriced if he’s super popular feel free to Pivot I don’t think you need to you can get different other places you ever have that time when you’re when you’re betting and you’re like I’m due or this player’s due whatever sport you’re betting that’s see you this week with Victor hin I mean the recent form not so good but you’re saying he’s due and I can get behind it because I like that logic now Patrick normally I’m a Fate on Windom Clark he’s the world’s number three ranked player though and I still feel like he’s being disrespected even at this price considering he won by four strokes here last year and his record in Signature Events is unbelievable yeah it is and I just think all that ludvig ownership which there’s going to be a lot of I think is going to Pivot to the defending Champion um and so because of that I’m okay taking a pass on him I’m going to play him somewhat not a ton though uh where I know his signature event history this year is unbelievable it seems like he finishes on the podium in all of them but the other five events they aren’t so great he doesn’t have a top 25 in those so there’s a wide range of outcomes with Clark obviously a win is more than possible uh and I do see some people in the chat saying I’m not a parlay guy I’m honestly I might be I might be thinking of parlaying wam Clark this week and next week because I love the course fit for him yeah if you want to get super weird like throw five bucks throw five bucks on it and then uh just retire after that if you want um but I’m out on Clark DFS wise he can obviously win this golf tournament I’m just not gonna play him because of ownership Adam Scott 7700 you talk about someone who’s du EC it’s me and Adam Scott he’s driv he’s driving the golf ball like crazy right now hitting it great has a string of solid results he played well here last year as well plenty long off the tea I’m going back to the well Adam shank is playing Great Golf as well three top 15s in his last four including a T12 at the Masters he has one solid finish here so I will take a dip at 7100 and then my guy he’s one of my guys Taylor Moore less is Moore 6700 uh plenty long off the te a super underrated short game uh top 10 in this field in terms of scrambling and around the green uh and so I think he can have a sneaky good week top 20 maybe top 10 potential you know I’m trying to sit here as you’re talking and figure out a parlay the two-e parlay because that’s my kind of BET right there sure you could probably get that at over 100 to one something like that I mean listen your your logic it makes sense both these course fits make sense for Windam Clark however I’m very disappointed that Grayson Sig still has not gained entrance to a uh a signature event but it’s coming and I will say this the other week when they were at the I think it was the opposite the RBC what what was the other uh punana something like that where he was contending and I was like uh oh I’m gonna owe Patrick 50 bucks if Grayson Sig wins because between he and Keith Mitchell if those guys ever win like I’m paying for a bet for each one of you a parlay for each one of you the next week uh I’m not concerned yet but we’ll see about that all right on to frls and seea you came so close last week with Alex snorin who was my pick outright and he gave it a run you’re only one shot off Matt Wallace kind of ruined it but this week you’re going back to the well to the top of the board interesting yeah one more we would have had a split with Matt Wallace and at 45 to one that would have been an enjoyable split so this is how I’m gon to get access to Rory mooy I don’t think I’m gonna play Ry and DFS I don’t criticize anybody who does I just I don’t think I’m gonna end up there and by the way speaking of Patrick McDonald’s game theory play on Fading Windham Clark he’s absolutely right Windham Clark’s going to be very popular especially when you consider how much cheaper he is than guys like Roy Moy and uh who was it Xander schafle but I’ll say this you pair wam Clark with Victor hind who nobody wants to play okay now now we’ve decreased our total ownership by a huge margin before we even get into the 8K n or 8K 7K and 6K range so just these are the types of things to think about when you’re playing a very heavily owned golfer like when Windom Clark will be yeah like I said Roy mroy he’s one of those guys that I know it sounds crazy but again if I have him up against Windam Clark on a closing Sunday back nine and they’re tied going down the stretch I know it’s crazy and I’m sure I’m in the minority I’ll take wam Clark on that one and in the Signature Events Windam Clark like sort of has been that dude so I’m gonna take Roy just in the first round leader Market where we see that Swagger I don’t know if you guys how much like people are watching round one two three and four but like four like you see some head shakes and from Roy maroy round three a little bit of that but round one he’s got Swagger when he plays well the the shoulders are popping back andth like he is really feeling it I’ve seen that recently from him uh in Big Time tournaments so I like Rory at plus 1600 AE we already talked about he can absolutely pop he can roll it with the putter as of late Cameron Davis I only got three here it’s only a 70% actually a 69% field now without ludig but Cameron Davis one of those guys that I may play in DFS I’m not really keen on playing in the outright Market necessarily or even in the matchup Market because I do think it could go sideways for him potentially but I’m seeing something with his game that is really good and I do think he’s a pretty course fit here 66 to1 as your first round leader um I’ll take that by the way those those are at B MGM the Roy ones at DraftKings OE and Cameron Davis first round leaders are at B MGM at like DraftKings and FanDuel those OE and Cameron Davis numbers are kind of in that like 35 and 55 to one range just so you know what the difference is yeah always shop for the best line especially if you’re not parlaying Patrick you are a resident weatherman on the show uh do we have anything for Thursday in terms of a side of the draw that may be May benefit from weather or not so much well there’s not much of a draw right I’m shocked that they’re doing split T’s I I’m I thought they’d go off early and do a single te start but they’re doing split T’s from I think it was 11: am to 1 pm um so not much of a a split I guess or a Advantage One Way or Another in your opinion is the back nine harder or is the front nine harder at Quail Hollow oh gosh uh I will say they added a t on 16 that super long par 4 I know some people might be confused because they switched it around the layout for the President’s Cup to play uh The Green Mile in most matches uh but the start of The Green Mile 16 the carry on that bunker at the top of the hill now I think is 340 which is ridiculous people used to be carrying that uh you know easy those these last few years but uh that stretch is Beefy it is very very beefy um it’s just it’s just a tough golf course I’m not too sure I watch I walked mostly the back today uh we are not scheduled Zach to talk about Myrtle Beach but don’t worry I’ll throw a pick in for Patrick uh I’ll ask him to make a pick later in the show see if you have anything on the Myrtle Beach tournament get ready for the end of the show we gota listen we’re we’re a show of the people we want to address what what you guys a lot of Myrtle Beach chat uh talk in our chat this week so uh we we’ll get to that later in the show but coming up next let’s find out who Everyone likes in matchups but first let’s hear from one of our sponsors the best couch potatoes come from Pluto TV country and these ters they like all sorts of different things Survivor Channel Ink Master Channel if it’s got a spaceship in it I’m probably watching it three channels dedicated to CSI whatever mood you’re in it’s going to be easy watching all right I don’t see any in looking at the board whether you know how I always look for who can I whose money can I lose or who can I lose to can I lose my money to usually it’s Patrick but see I’ve stayed away from all year probably a good idea um nonetheless I kind of like where we’re at this week Patrick I’ll start with you uh you’re going to fade uh an interesting name in Colin morawa who I actually agree with because at plus 2200 I’m not sure I love that either give me your thoughts on why do you like cam over him oh that for yeahor I’m sorry I was looking at Patrick’s sporton I was like oh sweet he’s fading him too and then I was like oh no that’s just me why are you yeah yeah I was looking at my whoops why are you fading Colin yeah I mean I I think I like the number more than anything here both of these guys have been pretty inconsistent although I will admit Collins’s been pretty good lately uh the ball striking has kind of been okay the the putter has definitely been good over his last few tournaments but overall when it comes to the puddle where Cam young young has issues too uh I I think they’re both still classified as inconsistent right cam young young can sometimes Spike with the putter Colin morawa lately has spiked with the putter but I kind of think that’s a wash and when it comes to and even if Colin has a slight Advantage there when it comes to the ball striking and when it comes to the off the te game particularly cam Young’s length off the te I just don’t think he should be a plus 100 dog I don’t think he should be an even money dog to Colin morawa I honestly think this should be like minus 110 minus 115 each way and so I’m just I feel like I’m getting a little bit of value on Camy young and I do feel like he’s going to finish higher than Colin morawa this course sets up much better for him in my opinion next we go to Alex norn minus 120 over Russell Henley I think on the surface these guys look pretty similar but when you look at The Strokes gain metrics Alex norin outclasses Russell Henley in in a pretty large way and that’s not because Russell Henley’s playing incredibly poorly it’s because Alex noren’s doing everything correctly and when you look at some of the other metrics that I I’m trying to look at here Greens in regulation bogy of aidance long iron play things like that noren’s got him there too so this is just one of those situations where I think this number honestly should be like minus 140 and it’s not and at minus 140 I might have considered it to be honest with you I’ll take it at-1 then finally Adam Scott over here as English I was on HQ earlier today this morning and I gave out an Adam Scott prop topy Oceanic play which is basically top in region nationality prop New Zealand Australia those Micronesia Polynesia that’s what’s encompassed in that Oceana play that sort of South Pacific geography lesson everybody and and I had him over Cam Davis at plus 130 and Jason day I still kind of like that but I like this one better which is why I’m coming to the show with this one because cam Davis does seem like a bit of a wild card to me and I do think he could potentially flash so I want to take him out of it and I want to go against a guy in Harris English who is doing it all with the short game a lot of it with the around the green play which I don’t think is going to be a huge Factor here because we’ve seen people succeed here with with lacking around the green play the approach play on Harris English is pretty bad certainly relative to Adam Scott who seems to be doing everything pretty well so I’ll take Adam Scott minus 130 over here as English you know no wonder I thought you had uh Patrick made those picks there was an Adam Scott play of course I should have I should have read my notes more but I just assumed Adam Scott it’s like if I saw Stephen Jager I just assume it’s you I don’t expect Patrick to pick that so you know just just if it’s graceon Sig we all know who that is all right uh Patrick last week in my storyline I said something about Jordan spe saying it was Mak or break for Jordan spe and I guess it was break because Jordan spe is broken and yet you’re getting Ben on at only minus 120 over spe seems like great value I love this pick love love love this pick which means tread lightly tread very lightly um I will say I walked out of the media center today not to uh get off topic too much and Jordan spe was ripping 5-footers on the green Michael gr behind him on all fours just looking exhausted uh and then I I go to the range talk to a few people take in some of the guys see what they’re doing Victor’s grinding trying to get that swing right homeless fine tuning I come back about like a half hour later gr’s in the same position Jordan’s still ripping five Footers so that was just kind of a cherry on top I had this pick in before that even happened and I I hate being the guy who’s like oh well I saw this on the Range or I saw this or that I never do that um but it’s just a little cherry on top I liked benon before that uh he’s been playing Great Golf he hits it a mile and like you said e see spe is kind of lost right now four Mis Cuts in his last seven I believe and he has the DQ as well uh so hoping he gets right the game of golf needs him to get right but I don’t think this is the week for him uh unfortunately and then Hadi Matsuyama minus 130 over Brian Harmon this is not a Brian Harman golf course it’s probably going to be a little too big for him although he has played well on long golf courses before like Aaron Hills I don’t really see well uh Quail Hollow kind of being his bread and butter meanwhile hadaki mama was like the hottest name in the streets before the Masters he had one and it wasn’t even that bad he finished outside the top 30 uh he hasn’t played since so I’m willing to take that price at minus 130 forget about the rust the talent plays there he’s arguably been a top five player in the world this year so I will take him at that number I think that’s a great pick and I will talk about matama in the next segment now uh my two head-to-head picks I hate fading Wills alores I love to watch will zorus play that Putter and that back pulling out of the tournament last week so we’re gonna fade him and roll with Tony F out minus 130 and find that on DraftKings uh so we don’t know what the deal is with Z’s back maybe Patrick will have some insight on that but I can tell you this losing 12 strikes uh 12 Strokes putting combined over your last four tournaments it’s not good uh he has a miscut in his only appearance here in 2021 when he was actually playing really really well uh Tony fan his last two tournaments last three Tournaments has a T2 and a T12 among them not not not bad so we’re going to roll with that at minus 130 this one’s a little risky especially with what CA talked about with AE a little bit earlier but I’m taking seu Kim over batia at minus 130 also on draftking SEIU is top 30 in each of his last six tournaments the consistency is there now only won Top 10 that top 30 you know what you’re gonna get from SE he’s gonna be in the top half of the field now OE not too not not too much of a slouch either he’s top 30 and four of his last five but he lost a little over three shots off the te at the RBC Heritage that concerns me a bit if that driver is not working especially this week I know we have wider Fairways at Quail Hollow I just seu seems a bit more consistent I have to admit I like this pick less after what I heard from CA but just tread as we say we we tread carefully on this one all right see let’s go on to finishing positions Patrick’s gonna sit this one out but you have a few and you’re going with well I should know you’re just you’re taking the consistent bets why do you like Xander and Windham yeah you know I usually go T20 T30 here I mean I do think this is an Elite field I I do think Xander and Windham are going to be in the top 10 and I don’t want to bet Xander outright like I’m trying to find other ways like Rory I don’t want to bet him outright at plus 650 like that’s absurd at least in my opinion it’s absurd so I’m going to find him in the first- round leader market right at plus 1600 hopefully we can get that Roy Swagger for the first 18 holes Xander schaet at a plus number basically even money to top 10 I mean he’s just really been a top 10 machine he does everything right the metrics speak to everyone including me do I think he can close on a Sunday no not really but T10 at plus money or at even money I’m I’m gonna take that in this field uh Windam Clark T10 at plus 160 I like that as well I mean the beauty of these two top 10 is I think they can both hit but if one of these two is in the top 10 I’m still winning money hopefully it’s Windam Clark right because then we’re all winning a little bit more but I mean I feel like one of these two was definitely going to be in the top 10 and I’m pretty confident that both of them are going to be in the top 10 so this is I decided to address this Market this week I think that’s I think your plays are brilliant and I almost wish I could copy them right now because those are safe bets and as you said if you lose one of them and the other one hits you’re still going to make money uh and you know check those out bet MGM remember it’s the only sports book that pays out ties in full on this particular bet all right I have four of them Tommy Fleetwood Boomer bust plus 225 bet MGM three top 10 for outside the top 30s this season which one’s it going to be at plus 225 yeah I’ll take a shot there he was T14 here in 2021 and T5 here last year I’ll take it plus 225 sounds good to me uh we just heard about uh Dey Matsuyama uh at I’m gonna take him top 20 plus at even money on MGM last five I think I think you guys mentioned this first T12 T6 t7 kind of a disappointing t38 at the Masters we haven’t seen him in almost four weeks uh he’s going to bounce back this week and I think a top 20 seems like a good bet at even money possesses The Perfect combo of length and around the green play remember uh if you’ve been watching the show for the last six weeks or longer Patrick has multiple times referred to him as the best around the green player on the PGA tour right now so just point that is that still correct you still agree with that yes and the numbers do as well okay I like that numbers are good uh except when I picked these two guys top 30 Sheamus Power Plus 138 uh so listen he his game has been has been pretty bad just kind of like me trying to talk in this segment hasn’t been very good uh I was he was T12 at the RBC Heritage he has two two top 20s and four appearances here including a t18 last year he’s turning that game around so all he has to do is finish basically in the top half of the field at plus 138 yeah we’ll take our chances now this one this is crazy Justin Rose top 30 at plus 160 also on bmgm he has three top fives here between 2014 and 2019 in three appearances I mean that’s it’s amazing you can’t do much better than that without winning the problem is that was five years ago and Beyond like still maybe this brings back good Juju for Justin Rose who only has one top 30 this season let us hope because I’m gonna play it at plus 160 yeah I’m going out in a limb with this one I’ll take my chances come on Justin now by the way last week if you read my article on sportsline.com every now and then I throw in a good tidbit I had sh Kim as my long shot and he finished T4 I played him Top 40 on this program I wish I had played him even higher not too shabby now if you want to make some of these bets and get paid out for TI on finishing positions you can do so at bmgm and if you aren’t a customer it’s time to sign up new BET MGM customers can sign up today and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets just place your first wage of at least $10 and you’ll receive up to $1500 instantly if your bet loses with bonus code edge that’s Edge Edge coming up next my auto Fades and some winners golf’s brightest stars head to the Bluegrass State for the second major season the PGA Championship May 18th and 19th on CBS now Patrick have we heard any updates on Scotty sheffer’s baby you alluded to it earlier in the show has he had the baby yet is he gonna be good to go next week I did not allude to anything you did I did not do not that was amazing reverse psychology tell us Patrick you clearly know the news what do we know about Scotty’s baby situation that that we you can say on the air I I don’t know anything um I will say there’s a chance he doesn’t play next week like that’s a possibility yeah like what if the baby comes on Tuesday or Wednesday better hurry up better schedule uh schedule a csection I’m just saying I I don’t think I think I will say the story at the Masters completely overblown completely overblown um and now I mean it’s crunch time obviously so the baby to my knowledge hasn’t arrived yet and so we only have what a weekish left so you go yeah it’s yeah I mean that’s fair that’s fair I think we can all agree if Scotty is not in the field next week the PGA Championship is a lot more compelling I mean not that it’s not compelling anyways as the second major of the year but Scotty Sheffer three to one I mean you can’t bet that like you mean from a batting perspective from a betting yeah I mean we’re all going to watch it of course but I’m talking about from a betting standpoint exactly like you can’t bet Scotty sheffler plus 300 you have to play the anti Scotty market right I would assume yeah 300 off a off a month layoff new baby in the house probably steer clear all right Jake let’s see the uh let’s see the auto fade list once again even though I’m still chapped about uh thank you about Shane Lowry the Zurich should not count uh Rory mroy carried him to Victory Scotty Sheffer has since I made this list uh four first place finishes and a T2 uh where he very well could have won if he had made a five- foot putt on the 18th hole to go to a playoff against Steph joerger but the rest of the list has held up very well and just making sure oh wait I actually have somebody on this list that I’m going to play in this seven whoops wow all right yeah what can I say I got caught for the first time this year and I’ll explain my l jar hand in the cookie jar Patrick I hate to say it you and I actually agree oh there it is Max hom you and I are both are both interested this week why are you going with Mad Max yeah I mean he played great at the Masters I’m willing to forgive uh the result at Harbortown different Golf Course coming off a real emotional week at Augustin National Augustin National and quill Hollow certainly have their similari as well he’s obviously won at this golf course too played well last year as well so I’ll get involved at 25 to1 Hadi matama at 40 to1 for all the reasons I said earlier I mean we’re just forget forgetting he’s a top 10 player in the world right now so uh I I will take Hadi at 40 Will T Taurus I’m not super concerned about the back maybe I’m trying to G Galaxy brain this because the way I looked at it if he had played the CJ cup iron Nelson and he had played this week and and he had played next week that would have been six weeks in a row no players play six weeks in a row he needed to somehow break up his schedule a bit of a cop out I’m not saying he did but that’s something I would do so I I’m I’m okay with his health his ball striking is great the iron play is fantastic he’s played well at tough golf courses this year Riviera and Bay Hill and this certainly aligns with those so I will take a dip at 45 for Willie Z wow I give you credit I’m not sure that I would have I I mean the six weeks thing makes sense and I’m glad you explain that yeah nobody unless you’re Su JM you’re not playing six weeks in a row I mean for the most part or you’re or you’re trying to earn your tour card all right seea you already teased your picks earlier in the show and I I’m with you Windom Clark seems like a very good bet at plus 1600 I still feel like he’s being disrespected in the odds against this field he’s the number three player in the world and we’re see Xander shley at plus 900 and Windam who won this by four strokes last year is plus 1,600 seems like a an absolute disres disrespect yeah it opened at 1,800 and in some markets it’s down to plus 1400 I think FanDuel might have him at 1400 now bet MGM I believe and DraftKings still have him at plus 1600 but I agree he’s getting disrespected listen you could put Windham Clark firmly where Xander schafle is and if and if you’re like just a Strokes gain guy and you’re looking at what Xander’s done it might be slightly more impressive at least across the board but Xander’s not winning like Windham Clark does and Xander’s not top twoing like Windham Clark does frankly at the API at the Players second place finishes behind Scotty Sheffer at the RBC Heritage the other signature event that we’ve seen over the last uh couple of months so that’s three right he’s third place there behind Scotty Sheffer and obviously somebody else but I I think you’re right I think he’s getting disrespected in the market I do think there’s tournaments where he’s not going to show up and Patrick pointed that out but I’m sorry I feel like we’re seeing Brooks kka where it’s like right the Signature Events where I can make the most money and and get the most clout like those are the ones I’m really going to show up for and I think with in Brooks kepus case I was one of the detractors from that narrative I was like well that’s that’s kind of silly he’s showing up for the tournament he wants to win the tournament I think there are some people that are just made up differently and I think wendam Clark is that sort of the current PGA Tour Version of Brooks kepin and I I by the way I think he’s good too I think he’s a guy that can take down some Majors over the next few years maybe he’s not going to have Brooks kep his resume at the end of the day but I don’t think we can rule that out and without Scotty Sheffer at plus 1600 even at plus 1400 I’m definitely All Aboard there especially with his recent form and the fact that he won last year Victor havland this is this is a bit of a shot in the dark this is one of those the stock is never going to be this low in my opinion we’re not going to see the rest of this year or maybe the rest of his career Victor havland with an outright number sub plus 2200 we’re getting plus 2800 in most markets some are down to Plus 25500 00 some are even higher I I saw somebody get it at an even higher number but again if there is going to be a tournament where Superstar Victor hofflin I do still classify him as a superstar is going to rebound is going to be like oh yeah here I am like everybody forgot about me it’s G to be a a tournament that requires really good off the te play which he has really good long iron play which he has a tournament that may mitigate the around the green troubles that he typically has had in his career and especially in 2024 this is the course for him to make the rebound in and I’m getting the plus 2800 and by the way part of the reason that number is so long is because he hasn’t played in three weeks in his case I think that’s a very good thing in most people’s case I don’t necessarily think it’s a good thing he had three weeks to reflect change his game for all we know he’s in perfect Victor hland vintage form fair enough I I get it I If he if he wins this week seea you should just wear a crown to the on the show next week as I mean you know now uh if I remember correctly Patrick’s the only one that’s picked a winner that’s right with Jake knap in Mexico so we have some catching up to do but I think we got it this week with Windam I mean the guy in in Signature Events this year I said this earlier he went 29th at the century then he won at Pebble Beach missed the cut at the Genesis then he’s gone two2 T3 I’m not including the Masters in that I mean that’s incredible he won last he won this event last year by four shots he’s an elite ball Striker putter is actually becoming a little bit more consistent and just think about it if that putt doesn’t lip out of the players I mean we could be talking about Windam Clark right there with Scotty Sheffer you know maybe not that much but nonetheless Windham Clark being disrespected at plus 1600 now Patrick got Max home at plus 2500 I got him at plus 2200 he won this event in at 2019 here he won at uh in 2022 at TPC pomac he also finished uh T8 here last year he was T8 as well at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T3 at the Masters so the game is in good form him and finally yes Justin Thomas he is on my uh fade list but I’m going against my fade list this week JT you won the 2017 PGA Championship at this course you finished in the top five at the RBC Heritage with your best putting Tournament of the Season you were T14 here last year in the midst of an awful season must like Quail Hollow I think Justin Thomas is going to surprise now do I love the number at plus 25500 no do I wish I parlayed it with c’s Mets in the first five not sure how they’re doing but yeah I wish I did because I don’t love this number but this is one of those you parlay and if I get it to 50 to one yeah I can stomach it you’re shaking your head Patrick you don’t like that idea no I’m just laughing man you do you you do your own thing man you know me just wait till the long shots we know how the long shots go for me let’s let’s see them right now uh Patrick you came on before the show and you said I’m picking a long shot and I can’t believe I’m doing this so Denny what’s wrong wrong with Denny Denny Denny should have won uh the other week what what’s the prom at 8500 yeah I I don’t like how wet the golf courses and uh I think we’re supposed to get some rain Thursday night too as well uh and obviously it’ll dry out before play starts but the additional rain will certainly not do anything to help and I love Denny on he’s sneaky good on Long firm and fast hard golf courses you think about mirfield Village uh he he played well at the Country Club too for that US Open sneaky good US Open record and so he played well here last year as well finished uh you know towards the top of the leaderboard I think he had a top 10 finish I want to say T8 maybe and so I was all in at 8,500 and I bet him at 85 to one but uh I’m a little hesitant I’ll say that which honestly could be a good thing the old fade myself type of thing hey I got a for Jake work for Jake yeah I mean that’s a good point I do I do have a parlay for you it’s Denny this Denny and Grayson Sig over at Myrtle Beach you know what that would pay retirement you could buy a new yeah you could buy a new car I was gonna say you buy a new car with the winnings for that one even if you bet $25 you got Danny 8,500 uh Grayson Sig I think is plus 4,000 if anyone wants to do the math on that and put that in the chat please please let us know all right C you’re going with more reasonable odds and oay at plus 5,000 tell us why you like him yeah we’ve talked about him at length so I’ll I’ll just address it really quick I like his ability to first of all we’ve seen him win this year at the Valero Texas open but I like his ability to spike with the ball striking and I love how consistent the Putter’s been it’s the perfect combination I think he’s going to be good off the tea as well um he’s just kind of a young upand cominging guy but I don’t know that we have really fully appreciated his potential on the PGA tour I think some people have but in this in this tournament I I don’t think it seems super likely that he can win but plus 5,000 isn’t super long and it’s not super long for a reason fair enough uh I’m going with the parlays I mean it wouldn’t be an early wedge that I’m on without some parlays top look at this top 10 one this is great you get these uh at DK here Rory Xander Windam I mean and you get ties with that at plus 900 where where do I lose this one I mean this see these are your two bets you throw Rory in here who has great history here at the Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow I mean come on you got to admit it’s pretty good plus plus 900 is a good number it’s just like top 10 there’s only so much room right you’re you’re occupying about 30 well exactly 30% of the top 10 with these three names and assuming none of them are going to falter but to your point plus 900 for like I think you could there’s no argument really I think these are the three best players uh probably recent form and historically in this in this tournament I’m probably leaving out a couple of names but plus 900 is an appetizing number for sure now he listen uh Xander has finished I believe in the top 10 in eight of 11 tournaments this season so if he doesn’t finished in the top 10 he’s not ruining my top 20 parlay iy finished second here last year so Xander wam Clark and Max hom at top 20 at plus 350 now this is short for me to include on the long shot screen but I’m still going to roll with it uh I feel good about both these don’t hurt me Xander and Windham the energy with ca’s uh finishing position bets and these two makes me feel so good all right suck a little Myrtle Beach Patrick you probably live fairly close to Myrtle Beach I don’t know my South Carolina geography but you are not near that tournament this week Grayson Sig is playing in it are you picking him and if not give us a few names that you would look towards to possibly invest in I love Grayson Sig this week you see you know me too well uh I found a 50 honestly on the guy uh that makes it even more appetizing and so I saw some Daniel Berger love in the chat don’t hate that at all if you want to get involved there but uh for me it is Grayson Sig again come on next question see is there I mean I should have known better why why did I even asked see is there is there a name or two that sticks out to you as to players we should potentially invest in in Myrtle Beach yeah there’s some sort of like middle tier odds that I kind of like Justin lower and Andrew Novak I do like I like Daniel burer too by the way but his odds have kind of been pushed down a little bit but I did I mean last week I actually bet against him in a round one three ball uh and he’s the one that ruined it for me and he was very good for all 18 and it was he was good in the tournament too so I get the Daniel Burger part I’m not really super interested in that at 25 to1 but Justin low at 35 to1 Andrew Novak at around 40 to1 uh both those guys have been playing really well uh the different parts of this year and in this field I could see them popping I don’t even know where I would go with this one um I just in a tournament like this where there’s the favorite is at plus 2500 I just don’t have a a good read on it and that’s why you guys are the experts and I’m just along for the ride here on the early Weds so next week we have a big one uh it’s the PGA Championship and one of us I’m gonna guarantee it one of us is gonna hit the winner in our outrights I’m calling it if you want to pick Scotty Sheffer now we can do the anti Scotty sheffler if assuming he plays and you do the without Sheffer because I can tell you that’s what I’m going to do but one of us is hitting it I’m just going to tell you right now uh Patrick do you think Scotty not playing this week is a disadvantage next week or do you think he’s just playing too well where it just doesn’t matter I don’t think it really matters too much for him I do think the bigger disadvantage is that his routine is interrupted just by having a baby right so I mean when you’re out of your routine especially a routine that I assume he’s been in for at least the duration of 2024 again I don’t know his routine I don’t know his personal details like Patrick McDonald does but with that said I gotta think he is very routine oriented and now you’ve got like yeah you got like the baby bump and and things that nature in terms of like I just had a baby you sort of have all of the the good feels behind that but when your routine is interrupted and you’re in the form that Scotty shuffler is is in I actually think that’s a pretty big deal all right give us one early bet before going into next week knowing that Scotty’s going to play you can’t say him who would be your early bet for the PGA Championship Patrick I’ll start with you uh the Windom Clark double this week and next week okay if you’re betting him this week you might as well yeah throw some on next week too there okay yeah you know I haven’t studied it I’m looking at the odds right now so I’ll throw out a name uh the name that is jumping out to me because I’m looking at the odds too by the way Windam Clark at least on DraftKings that’s where I’m looking right now is plus 2500 which is a pretty good number by the way uh I’m going to go with this might be a guy playing DFS this week I hav’t decided Patrick Klay at plus 2,800 okay uh how about Brooks kka I think it was brought up in uh I think Jake posted in the chat how do you feel about Kea he won on live he he’s getting in better form the numbers seem short especially with Scotty in the field I think it’s what plus 1600 how do you guys feel about uh about Brooks I would be very surprised if he is not a factor if you look at his PGA Championship record since uh [Music] 2018 he’s had and you take out 2022 he wasn’t 100% the knee was a problem uh he has inured every final round of the PJ Championship with a chance to win wow how about that CA yeah I mean he seemed really dialed in over the last week and I guess we might have seen the interview after he he won on live uh I I do think he’s going to be a factor I mean I don’t think it’s just a lip service where he says like I’m very much focused I was embarrassed by by how I did at the last major so yeah I do think he’s going to be a factor but I’m looking now I’m looking at all these names some of the Liv names that are actually playing like Meo Pereira who has not played well on Liv 150 to one like I’m just excited to see these names like wae Neeman I think at shorter odds is Harold Verner the third is in this field at 150 to1 Aaron Wise is in the field like I wasn’t even sure he was like I know he he entered a tournament a few weeks back but this is exciting like we’re going to have a lot of live names that we didn’t see at the Masters Taylor gu obviously who’s who’s sucking up a lot of the oxygen on Twitter uh there’s this is going to be really exciting next week I can’t wait for it well as always guys it’s fun to be on and learn from you and hopefully get some winning picks we go a we’re GNA hit more outrights on this show the summer’s coming along the bigger tournaments are coming and we are going to crush it so want to thank Cen Nan and Patrick McDonald of course our producer Jake who does a great job behind the scenes I’m Eric Cohen as I always like to say let’s hit it big good luck