Walk away a winner with our PGA DFS preview & best bets for the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship!
Can Rory McIlroy (6.5-1) run away with it, or will Max Homa (22-1) cash out in Charlotte, N.C.?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for Quail Hollow on “The 19th Hole (S4 E18).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:03:59 The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Reaction
00:04:20 What Are We Drinking?
00:05:21 Caddy Notes: Quail Hollow Club & Tournament Breakdown
00:13:42 Club Twirls: 2024 Wells Fargo Championship Best Bets
00:41:24 No Trunk Slams: 2024 Wells Fargo Championship DFS Core Plays + Fades
00:57:08 Final Picks + The Hat Pick
00:59:31 Plugs & Outro
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✖️ Follow the hosts of the program on Twitter/X:
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
good evening ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to the 19th hole we are live on in between media make sure you like this video subscribe to the whole damn Channel and jingle that Bell for notifications we have reached the last elevated event before the second major of the Season PGA Championship at Valhalla next week but actually this week’s a pretty good one we are doing the wells far go championship at Quail Hollow in Charlotte it’s a beast of a course great prep for the second major I think we’re going to we’re going to win some big money this week Connor is already standing by to agree with everything I have to say let’s hit it [Music] [Music] you should have seen me people you should have seen it it would have been hilarious comedy watching me running here to get ready for the show right off work got held up made it photo finish I got to put my headphones on my head and whip the headphone right into my eye we’re off to a raging start I’m probably gonna have a Shiner by the time the show is over Connor how are you tonight not a whole lot better I was on the couch with the dog trying to choke down dinner real quick in between work looked at the clock and I was like oh [ __ ] we’re on there in three minutes everybody’s got to plan until you get whacked in the face with a pair of headphones yeah I can’t say that I did that but my eyes are already messed up from allergy season but that that didn’t help if it makes you feel any better you don’t look any worse than normal thank you I appreciate that uh Royal Slade in the house roster watch themes are the favorites I don’t know what that sounds like I don’t watch roster watch not saying you shouldn’t but I think we’re better no no offense to them Connor it’s the Wells Fargo Quail Hollow an incredible of course Jack Nicholas design we’re going to get to the details of that in a little bit but this is one of my favorite events of the Year Bar None because it’s a beast we’re going to have a little bit of Carnage it’s not like the most difficult but uh it it’s demanding it’s demanding and uh we have an elevated field 68 golfers all had to play their way into this event and so we don’t have any Mickey Mouse long shots to really worry about and I think that uh even though Scotty’s taking the week off to uh have a baby or watch his wife have a baby and change some diapers and before Valhalla I I think this Field’s really Stellar it’s it’s solid top to bottom I mean maybe except for the very bottom but even then you never know Val Valhalla calling next week but Wells Far Quail Hollow is is a force to be reckoned with yeah this is a i one it’s one of my favorite courses to watch too uh The Field’s super strong even the bottom like you just said there’s some guys down at the very bottom of this field that actually have won on tour this year have like played well like yeah I I don’t know I I think there’s a lot of lot of people in play this week it’s h 68 guys and really you can you can really only eliminate about 10 of them that got no shot outside of that we got some really good playerss are all gonna be six for six this week too which is a good thing no cut no cut which you need after I absolutely demolished you last I started off really good my Friday was bad my Thursday was really good my Friday was really bad and that was that was it you have two or three guys missed the cut and that is curtains in DFS I think I got you by almost was it over 200 that was a lot I don’t even know I probably don’t want to look at that I I am drinking already I just got off work so it’s 5:00 somewhere it’s actually a little bit after 5:30 Pacific so I’m a little bit late uh I have the Elijah Craig Barrel proof which is 118 point2 proof uh batch b521 oh you haven’t had that one on here in a while yeah it’s been a while but delicious juice I have nothing exciting but after talking about old Forester again last week I just walked down here like I said running late so is that the 1910 or the 1890 just the base oh base take it to the base take it to the bease oh oh I’m done well played sir well played yeah if you know you know so without further Ado let is let’s jump into Quail Hollow and what these 68 golfers are going to encounter in Charlotte North Carolina [Music] man Brad Chad and Thad are coming up later but that that was a good one slap the B man Chelsea pford knows everybody jaming man we slap in the Beast I do not sound Irish unlike Paul Ren I love you man trying to trying to get after this whiskey a little bit I know you and I talked beforehand I don’t think we’re going to disagree a ton tonight so I think the entertainment value’s got to come from the consumption level if I had enough hats that weren’t already sweated on by me then yes I would definitely give I’m working on it Roy I’m trying to get a partnership with the mammoth headwear shout out NorCal uh because they’re the only hats that fit my Dome unless I get a fitted one which are extremely expensive these days have you seen how much a new era 51 goes for these days it’s Insanity stupid stupid like minimum 40 bucks yeah uh 50 most likely these are 50 but they actually fit my head so I’m actually happy about that Royal thinks I need to be louder you got it buddy I actually second that for once I’m going to say oh baby is that better is that better that should this one actually goes up to 11 yes yeah I am all four turning up usually I have the big voice that carries through so um happy to know that I’m being in a little ASMR I feel like I’m really filling the frame tonight yeah you’re awful close to the to the mic I can see your nose hairs well last week was my pores so we have the conf confirmation that that is better thank you Royal for the soundcheck Chelsea seconds that all right we’re good to go yeah you sound fantastic Quail Hollow in Charlotte North Carolina oh I gotta go get some new pants yeah why am I sticky this week it’s not the uh cookie dough whiskey no that it might just it might be the Bermuda rough at Quail Hall could be could be uh Wells Fargo Championship Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte North Carolina par 71 700 or 7558 yards uh Fairways greens are both Bermuda got some overseed POA a little bit of Rye mixed in another signature event like Bo mentioned uh no cut here 68 players in the field the course plays a little bit longer than that yardage would indicate uh being a par 71 the majority of the par fours are longer than tour average uh limiting some of the scoring potential uh Par Four are they they are quite long uh in excess of 450 yards the majority of them are a couple that are right around that 500 Mark there’s one that’s 529 isn’t there H that is my next talking point which is actually part of The Green Mile so arguably the most difficult closing three- hole stretch on tour 16 measures 529 yards then you’ve got a long par three can be stretched out to about 200 should play around 190 and then concluding the uh home stretch is is another 500 yard Par Four you got water firmly in play on all three of those holes as well so real nasty stuff to be had there if you get out of there with par you should be feeling pretty good Carnage Carnage which is Bo’s favorite thing the course does demand accuracy also a well-rounded game uh this is a course that really is a good preparation like Bo alluded to for major every every uh part of your game’s going to be tested here most greens are heavily guarded by bunker uh sloped false fronts um if you are let those fronts be fronting straight hanging on Front Street dog damn um if you are able to stick it close the greens are still a little bit tricky they’re going to play quicker than tour average again some of the weird slopes and angles that you’re going to run into on the greens definitely not the easiest to navigate distance is definitely a weapon here the fairways aren’t as tight as they would be when this course is play as a major but uh they’re still going to demand some accuracy off the te I’m definitely uh looking to have uh precise second or precise placement for your second shots long irons let’s go I was and you are reading my mind tonight I’m I’m a mind reader when you’re looking at distance players I would definitely use a long iron statistics uh on approach as your tiebreaker uh the majority of approach shots are going to come from about 170 5 uh to over 200 yards so even the longest of hitters are going to have to be uh breaking out the long irons here pars are good score bogey avoidance is critical um and making hay with birdies whenever you can so the only other thing uh to mention with this course is unlike the previous basically seems like forever uh the weather is going to be pretty tame here no rain no rain and Max winds are around 10 miles per hour so we’re just gonna see golfers play golf just going to see uh guys playing golf and getting the whole bag tested uh I’ll second your uh your first second third shots and then of course it’s the whole bag but it starts with good t- shots um if you don’t have quite the big distance to go on you can make up with that by being extremely accurate off the te we’ve seen guys that aren’t necessarily long overcome it from with accuracy and then good approach from longer distances uh we do have a couple guys on tour that fit fit that criteria that we’ll talk about and obviously a good short game because you’re going to be coming from such a distance on approach you’re not going to hit all these greens you have to be able to recover and these greens are tricky man they’re tricky on the on the Chip and Putt so yeah I I expect a winning score between 10 and 15 under par not withstanding wendam Clark’s uh insane run last year where he finished with a course record 19 under par that’s Bonkers for a par 71 I definitely think it gets back up in that range again here there’s nothing like these guys are going to be able to get this place a little bit but we we’ll get to that later on the one thing I wanted to call out about some of the short game statistics and scrambling is what’s interesting is the the people that have won here so when we’re looking at the outright Market the scrambling and the around the green game actually are like minimally important to the player builds um the guys that have won here are the guys that are sticking a close um proximity um on approach is critical the opportuni gain metrics as far as building your DFS lineups like the scrambling and the around the Green stats those are definitely going to help you get the well-rounded players they’re going to get you placement points and so on but historically the guys that win here aren’t using those wed shots they’re they’re on the green um they’re they are getting up and down when they have to but and they’re like Windom Clark where they don’t miss any putts the whole week well and that was that was the thing with Windom last year I I forget exactly what he gained but I want to say it was over six Strokes put and he was pretty much flat on around the green and scrambling so apprach and apprach I know he was over seven strokes gained and I got two of the days he made over 100 feet in putts which is Bonkers yeah so I’m looking at guys that uh I’m looking the guys that have it in the bag but really uh for outrights it was it’s pretty much distance plus uh precise approach um and putting that’s that those are the three things I’m really looking at I’m not taking too much into account outside of that all right well without further Ado let’s twirl some clubs and talk about who we’re betting on since that’s what everyone’s here for am I right I’m just here for you okay that’s that’s really sweet [Music] shout out to Brad Chad and fad killing it as always looking Dapper as always boys all right top of this board plus 650 Rory mroy three-time winner at Quail Hollow he got his first PGA Tour win here just here for the Hat yeah and the Hat’s on fire we we’ve we’ve counted the hat out so many times we we’re going to stop doing that the Hat plays the Hat wins the hat is on such a role that we can’t ignore it anymore and Tim is he’s he’s a smart guy good looking fella one of them at is dignified dignified gentlemen distinguished gentlemen hey Royals got some loonies to spend thanks to us let’s [ __ ] go Chelsea loves seeing guys score me too too if if you’re not rooting for the homies I don’t know what to tell you all right now I’m on the correct betting page I was looking at the Myrtle Beach Classic which we we’ll touch on that a bit there’s a it’s a big field over there in Myrtle Beach for the first time running of the Myrtle Beach Classic in South Carolina not North Carolina but um yeah we’re going to focus mostly on the big guns that got invited to Quail Hollow Rory yeah yay n I mean he’s the horse for the course right this this place is owned by Rory mroy designed by Jack owned by Rory yeah you gotta be a yay on Rory this week he’s won here three times I think out of like the million times he’s played here I think the worst he’s ever finished is like 19th yeah top 10 five out of eight times that’s that’s that’ll do yeah and I I also like I like the head space he’s in like I think the Zurich I think the Zurich was the thing that we needed to get Rory’s like groove back um so I think he comes out here and if he doesn’t win he’s going to have a strong showing and I think we I think that just rolls right into next week too like I love where Rory’s peing right now yeah and Rory’s main issue has been on short approach he’s not GNA have too many short clubs into these greens and when you think of a go like we’re trying to picture a golfer who has a combination of distance and accuracy off the tee that’s Rory maroy it’s no wonder why he does well here that’s just who he is he’s great on Long approach he annihilates tough par fours like this there if you’re looking at par four scoring look no further than Rory mooy especially if they’re over 450 this guy is like Leaps and Bounds ahead of the field on the longer par fours and Quail Hollow has got a bunch of them this is this is this is going to test everyone Rory has had so much success here that I’d be shocked if he wasn’t right there on Sunday and with his closing ability this is this is Rory’s week plus 650 is actually a pretty good deal for a favorite thanks to Scotty having uh put eternity leave yeah I couldn’t agree more like this is this is a Rory mroy course like you said he owns this place he’s never had a bad performance here still still arguably the best driver of the golf ball on tour and your point not only is he a prolific par 4 and par five scorer but his best Par Four ranges are 450 to 500 which is all of these par fours so except for one and he’s not too shabby above 500 either so yeah this is uh that Lock and Load on Rory this week oh yeah um next in line for me is Max hom another horse for the course uh his comp the comp course for uh Quail Hollow is Riviera happens to be a place Max Homa does extremely well at so uh fire up the max Homa train as well I I know you agree with me on him too I do uh yeah I mean outside outside a Rory I I don’t know that anybody has better course history here than H right um yeah no no argument from me the only the only thing that is a little scary with h is just he hasn’t really been in the best of of form I think all year like he’s he’s definitely Peaks and valleys right now um so if we get if we get Max hom on Full Tilt like 20 to One’s Gonna seem like a really long number for a guy who’s probably just as comfortable as Rory is here so I did want to touch on uh Windam Clark though that we jumped right over uh because wam Clark’s actually the next guy on my card at 14 to one yeah uh it might behoove you to look at the guy who just destroyed this field last year may maybe a good play wouldn’t be the worst idea and like Windam Clark like in a lot of ways is is a little bit like Rory mooy light like he’s he’s got pretty good distance pretty good accuracy off the te it’s not Rory but it’s it’s long enough and it’s sharp enough um you know and his approach especially on the longer irons is pretty well lights out when he’s when he’s firing so uh and like I said and Bo said as well like when you look at what Windam Clark was able to do on this course last year uh when he’s hot he’s hot and uh I don’t and he puts the lights out like where Rory gets it done off the te wendam gets it done off the tea himself with good distance and he’s he was he was on fire finding Fairways last year which allowed him to stick approaches on the green and the dude just makes so many birdies like his his conversion percentage is higher than Rory’s Rory just gives himself so many chances and that’s that’s kind of where they differ but in a in a similar fashion they score they both score on courses like this where it’s not going to be premium scoring conditions it’s there going to be a tough chest test for everyone but what I’m seeing with my model here is that it’s a lot of chalk at the top you got Rory Max and Windam right there in the top five together so don’t overthink it this is a very tough field and the best golfers in the world saved for the best one are all here and they all seem to like this place quite a bit um it makes no sense to kind of ignore those guys when they’re getting pretty soft odds I mean compared to what I expected to see with Scotty if Scotty was in the field we’ get be getting even better odds but it’ be dumb to bet against him anywhere right now I think it’s opens that up for exploiting the books this week with those three guys um I thought it was G to I thought these guys were going to get shorter too with um oberg uh pulling out and Patty being out because in transparency oberg was he was he was my favorite and and by Far and Away the best rating in my model I mean and not not particularly close yeah so and he was the exact type of golfer I was looking for to hopefully get soft odds and when he he’s taking the week off with a sore knee his doctor told him hey rest up for Valhalla and that’s you don’t have to tell him twice he’s he’s going to be ready for the PGA next week but yeah he’s come out but yeah with without him in this field it just opens up for us to take on take those three guys on and maybe take a shot or two in the 20s and 30s but I’m going to drop down pretty quickly after I F put a bunch of money at the top I’m gonna have a big gap of who I’m betting on what do you think though in the 20s there’s three guys that I’m really interested in but I haven’t pulled the trigger on and it’s it’s Thomas morawa and havland I I haven’t made a decision between the because JT rates out fifth in my model morawa you just picture long and straight off the te and and great on Long approach and that’s him to a t and has as well as he looked at austa that’s that’s really what sticks to me is morawa playing well recently kind of getting off that schneide he was in his head it was it’s not physical moraa the dude’s a world class ball Striker but his confidence takes hits and another guy in that same range as cam young who hasn’t figured it out yet and he’s kind of a tear down for me but again it’s those two guys for me morawa and JT and JT is oh my God that’s tantalizing because his odds have gotten so soft with just being kind of back burner lately morawa 25 to one for morawa is a steal in my opinion I can’t ignore it havin for me just scares me to death because he’s played like a turd this year he’s been terrible he has but what’s been consistent even though he’s not been playing great is like believe it or not over the last 24 like the putting’s been good driving distance and accuracy has been good he’s number two off the tea in this field and on top of that like the par for scoring in general like the specific range we’re looking at at least over the last 24 measured rounds he rates out number one for me and so like I don’t think he’s been playing very well either but like when you look at what the stats are saying yeah I mean can you can you skip him here I mean I don’t know it seems like it would make kind of want to because he’s been so bad around the greens lately again like it’s it’s kind of rearing its head again and he’s going been kind of average on approach which isn’t like him at all usually he’s been so Nails on approach uh his off the te game is so good that you can’t ignore him here but um yeah bogey avoidance for for uh Victor 55th in this field that’s that’s a big red flag for me and uh that’s kind of what leans me more towards JT and Colin this week uh if Victor shows up this week nobody should be surprised this guy just stormed and stomped everybody at the end of last year so it’s there somewhere um but I don’t trust him yet they call it gambling for a reason I’m I’m leaning hlin I’m leaning I’m leaning Colin yeah I don’t know I’ll take I’ll take hins three put avoidance and his putter in general right like just better than J JT and and better than and Colin so yeah maybe I talked myself into it I know I know it’s potentially early but I I’d rather be early than late on Vic it’s pretty crazy um looking at the stats though uh there’s some guys down farther on the board that rate out very similarly to that group of guys that we we’ve been fawning over and we’re going to get some great value on those golfers uh this this is this is a grinder week and with the Grinders come the guys that are the Deep shots that maybe shouldn’t be so deep maybe they’re being disrespected because the field is so strong um who do you have in this next tier Connor um I’ve got willly z uh at 35 to1 which I wrote up in my column so you can can read up on why I like him um I hope his back is okay CU it’s it’s really concerning to get that WD last week uh for the same reason as I know it’s maintenance but uh it still makes you think twice right it it does and in transparency like I’m I’m I’m like torn between him SEIU and Hideki at that 35 Hideki on a golf course like this man with what he just did at Riviera this year um yeah that 63 on Sunday makes makes me wonder what he can do here where it’s a little bit easier year and the course is similar it’s it’s yeah Rivier is one of the few course like true like kind of comps to hear I know and that’s we just saw this year Hideki is playing out of his mind shoots a 63 disappointing 63 for him on Sunday to win at Riviera and he’s getting super soft odds this week it makes no sense at all to see him at 35 to1 here no I think the question mark for Hideki is is the same as it always is it’s just that putter like yeah you do have to make putts here like you have you got to get it done and similar to my last argument going between havin Thomas and um um why am I drawing a blank now the three we were just talking about nonetheless I mean I think I think I I think I lean with the guy that has the better putter which not seu which is not SEIU right so I just I don’t know I it’s it’s that it’s a tough range because none of them are excellent on the greens but why do you think I’m skipping this whole range but to your point like you look at what Hideki did at Riviera like you don’t want to miss it and then you look at what will zalatoris does on longer par fours par fives long iron approach and you know frankly like zalatoris this year I think he’s already got three top 10 um you know he’s playing excellent Golf and again if you want to kind of assume that it is just preventative maintenance on his back like we were kind of lining up to play him the last few weeks right and I think this sets up pretty good for him we just need his putter to be like average yeah I don’t know if it’s here it scares me um there’s there’s some guys here that have some Intrigue I’m not going to pull the trigger and betting on them but uh we have OA batia who’s too short for me and then Jordan spe who’s too long but obviously I can’t picture a course this demanding off the tea shaping up too well for Jordan here um I think his number is disrespectful but I’m also not going to bet him at 40 to1 because I don’t think he’s going to do very well here he’s not getting any money on him that’s why his odds are so long but Ox getting 40 is really weird because he’s been just as bad off the T as Jordan he just I mean he’s a very similar style player to Jordan he’s wild off the tea but his short game’s so good that he gets away with it um it’s it’s going to be interesting because I have both of those guys raided out similarly and and um I’m seeing a lot of steam behind both of them and I don’t understand it Connor can you can you explain to me why somebody who’s wild off the tea would have any chance of Quail Hollow I I think the conditions at the Wells Fargo versus again if it’s like a President’s Cup or a or a major it is different it is different and I think you can afford to be a little bit wild off the tea I don’t know that you can afford to be spe wild off the tea yeah he was Finding hazards that didn’t exist for any other golfer last week right oh spe is in the trees I’m like there weren’t any trees on that hole or he’s in the canyon I was like there’s no canyons in that hole spe got somebody for cat and dropping trees in just so he can hit from behind something I like what is he doing nobody else is f oh Jake knap found all the trees on the left side because he had that snap hook working that’s when that’s when you need to clock out with Jake knap but with with Jordan spe like a couple things like I always love his like around the green game his creativity all of that stuff right but and of course that like historically for an outright those parts of the game aren’t emphasized for the winner it’s kind of a moot point now like do I like him because of those things in DFS a little bit more right because he’s got the around the green game he’s able to get up and down he’s got the creativity if he’s in trouble you just hope that he’s not super Wild off the te with AE like with AE I I I like I’m finding that I like him in situations that require like wind play or like really creative approach shots with a lot of shot shaping and and that’s not exactly what this course is like if you’re approaches at 150 and in he’s extremely good yeah this is just not like a great course fit for him I think 40 is really short given he’s getting a lot of steam from that win a few weeks ago which is understandable he looked really good that week we were on him that week this is not the same ballpark this is this is a he’s going to be hitting so many mid to Long irons on this golf course he just picked that other course apart on with wedge shots and that’s why he won and that’s his game his it’s if he can get a wedge in his hand nobody’s gonna beat o sha baa now 150 in like oh he’s lights out yeah but this isn’t that golf course this golf course you’re going to hit it 310 off the te and you still have 210 left yeah I mean he does get a guaranteed four rounds but again talking outright bets like I don’t see I don’t see spe or batia getting there I’m actually going to skip down to a guy who’s getting more Steam and it I I got to blame myself because I’ve been talking about him but shout out ncal Kirk kyama grinder yeah grinder Course Long hitter second in this field and approach dist long approach distance I mean yeah it’s it’s a kurk kittama week for sure and he’s super cheap he opened at 75 to1 even at 60 to1 right now I’m all over that that is all over it it’s 60 to1 like I am just dumping money onto my guy from Chico because this is exactly the course where he does extremely well this is just like the PGA last year this is just like the Arnold Palmer last year it’s it’s it’s KK week baby yeah no argument for me at all he was the last guy that I wrote a blurb about this week I almost gave you the shout out NorCal in my column yeah you can always get it it but no I mean things to love about kyama you hit on a bunch of them but I mean yeah long off the tea specializes in Long iron approach if you compare it to his other buckets yeah um putting actually has been one of his stronger points of his game the last 24 rounds which I was surprised by he’s number three for a three putt avoidance which is awesome and the other thing is like we haven’t talked about this much in the last season or so on this show but like there are guys Allah like fits for a while last uh two years ago and coocher was like that like two and a half three years ago where you absolutely can see this coming and like kyama has had like three on one bad three on one bad and so like there is absolutely a pattern of performance and right now he’s on that upswing uh so this I mean it fits the pattern it makes sense he is a streak player so I’m yeah I’m locked and loaded but he’s the guy that scores when things get nasty like like this golf course is going to put everybody to the test making pars Kirk kyama makes Pars in his sleep it’s it’s the CH it’s the birdie chances that come few and far between here where he’s going to be fine and making pars where other guys are scraping to make those eight Footers for par he’s going to have a tap in and it’s just those long iron approaches and one stat that I put put in my model for the first time this week especially for qua Hollow is Greens in regulation gained and Kurt Kama is 12th in this field and this Field’s nasty tough well his opportunity metric’s good too I mean it’s just you can’t fight it PR playing he’s playing good golf right now and like he’s slowly evolving from like you know where we would only play him on a grinder setup to like now he’s kind of showing up and and being a lot more consistent on all aspects of his game like he could be really dangerous this back half of the Season like he’s he’s definitely definitely shaping in a good form so I wouldn’t miss him at 60 to1 that’s a good number on and after that I’m going to skip down another quite a ways here you have anybody before 100 because I don’t um the only guy that we skipped over is Denny McCarthy who raided well for me he’s not he’s not necessarily um the guy that I would normally like equate to being a good call on this course but he is out really well he’s been playing Great Golf he is an approach specialist and he’s a hell of a Putter and surprisingly um he finished T8 here last year and uh you can’t really count the previous year because it wasn’t played here yeah but in similar field similar structure T25 so he’s had good luck with the um with the Wells Fargo um and I like that T8 last year kind of proves the theory that like you you said it in the intro you don’t have to have super long distance because that’s not Denny McCarthy if the rest of your game is his nails which his is right now um You can definitely make a run at it so I think he’s a little short at that 55 to one number but it would not surprise me in the least to see him really hanging around the top of the leaderboard yeah completely agree um I won’t be betting on him but he’ll definitely make the player pool because of the he has a lot of bad stats that I’ve been looking at so he’s pretty far down my model but he’s pretty high up in some good ones like bogey avoidance uh of course short game putting and then par for is over 500 yards he’s pretty damn good so um I’m not ignoring that because he does have some stats that concern me like approach 175 200 not pretty and uh is also around the green hasn’t been good but his approach has been good enough to avoid that kind of Pitfall uh but yeah I’ll I’ll I’ll I’ll I’ll rubber stamp that one I’ll coign it um I’m going to go down to uh Nick Taylor at 110 and then I’m going to just do one deep shot to call to to round It Out Gary Woodland 250 to1 I’m going to throw a couple bucks on him over outright but I’m more interested in that top 20 line because he is number one in my model the way I ran it which is last 24 rounds Bermuda and course is over 7,400 yards this is not necessarily A Gary Woodland course but the way he plays golf he’s great off the te and he’s great on Long approach the rest of his game has been in shambles since he he was came back from brain surgery but I just want this guy to do well 251 for a guy like that that I want to root for it’s it just makes too much sense this guy’s the way I rided it out he’s number one or number two in six metrics the way I waited it so I can’t ignore that especially at his odds that that just seems like a good bet to me um I’m here for the story on him I don’t know I don’t know that that’s making it onto my card I I really I want to we got we get 72 holes out of him that’s true I I like the top 20 better I I cannot see an alternate reality where Gary Woodland wins this thing but hey two bucks to pay 500 I’ll let you I’ll let you ride or die with it but up um Pavone at 100 100 to one uh somebody who we’ve been betting off and on this year like actually should be the front runner for rookie of the year over nap because he’s number eight in the FedEx Cup standings right now yeah he’s playing really good golf and continues to be bottom of the barrel not only for odds but also for DFS so um 100 to one on him and he is always live He’s and very good consistent um and then Nick Dunlap at 300 to one like I didn’t I thought you didn’t like Nick Dunlap I don’t like Nick Dunlap but like I think you like him as a golfer more than a person that makes sense yeah yeah that we can put him on that list of guys for me but but honestly like he’s already won obviously W turn pro um so he’s he’s just been able to put together good rounds of golf he’s made a few Cuts since he’s turned Pro young guy it’s just more the number here and the and the potential like there’s not a whole lot of good reason he doesn’t rate out super well uh we’re still still kind of getting to know what he’s all about but he he has been able to put together some really good rounds and you know predominant he’s a pretty good short game player um and he also is 17th in this field for uh Strokes gain on par fives so he’s that’s it’s a stat that’s going to actually help him out quite a bit this week and then surprisingly I would have said he was a lot longer than or a lot shorter than this but he’s 26 for uh distance off the te so he’s right there in that mix of guys that are in that 300 mark so sure I mean why not why not 300 to one I can’t make a strong argument but if you want a dart throw for the week it’s not a bad one and how about our guy last week Ben Kohl’s it’s the one week we didn’t talk about him we’ve been talking about Ben CO’s for over a year now and he comes out when we don’t talk about him and had a chance to win the damn thing and choked on the eight on the 18th pole on Sunday to miss the playoff sucks for him but that was a learning experience that that was a real learning experience in Grand fashion shees and that but what a relatable Chip Shot yeah saying I could make it no my my knees were wobbling just watching it imagine being there doing it you know who’s kind of another interesting guy I’m just sitting here uh kind of going back and forth looking at a couple of things before we call it quits on the betting side is Kevin TW right third at corales he was the Hat pick last week and he was the Hat pick and Ninth at the Byron Nelson last week also 300 to one right and honestly I’m looking at this going Matt coocher is in my top 10 on my model and I’m not playing Matt coocher but it’s amazing that he has the longest odds of anybody in this tournament and he rates super high in my model just because of short game Vibes this guy’s an Immaculate short game player and he’s not too bad from distance uh on on Long approach despite his lack of distance off the te he’s an accurate player he’s consistent he’s just having a terrible season so um take it with a grain of salt but these long shots deserve a little bit of note maybe maybe in DFS more than betting but it’s it’s good for The Vibes right yeah you take take 10 20 bucks and buck shot a few down here like again it’s small field why not 68 guys the odds are really soft down there yeah these are deep deep for and there’s no cut remember no cut yeah I I like everybody we called out down here in the you know 100 to 300 range so I might I might do it I might roll the dice on a few of these guys but yeah well last week was the banner week for uh disappointment for my DFS I did have Jake knap with 36 old leader back toback 64s and the rest of my field was absolute garbage and so I was like oh I still have Jake knp and is Jake knap uh becoming our new like Hayden Buckley like he’s got one round a week like it happens to be the fourth round every time that he gets that snap hook going I know that was ugly too he was he was fine in the woods off the tea and His short game’s not good enough to make up for that it really isn’t we we saw we saw the ugly side of Jake nap’s youth on on Saturday and Sunday last week but uh yeah I was slamming trunks last week I’m going to try to avoid it this week especially with no cut no cut baby it’s a get right week um let’s let’s try not to slam trunks here the club is well this would be a wrestling well Connor did you hear there’s no cut what well you start right at the top of the board uh sir Rory meroy from Hollywood Northern Ireland are you with the Irishman here are you going to have some ttos I’ve got I got to play Rory here yeah I’m going to be Max 40% exposure especially with a short field you can get a little bit more aggressive on exposure I’m going to I’m going to flirt with 50% Rory because at 118 it’s not cost prohibitive we’ve seen Scotty above 12,000 all season for good reason but Rory at 118 is is a really nice spot because even if he’s 20 25% rostered I’m going to be so overweight on him yeah you can’t you can’t fade Rory like you got but you I mean you can I good luck to you if you do but yeah you’re gonna have to at least at least match the field if you’re playing with oberg being out because oberg was 103 and he was going to be my my exposure limiter yeah now I mean if you look at the guys at the top of this board I mean the only other guy I’ve got interest in is wendam Clark and the problem becomes truly becomes windham’s projected at 24 and a half Rory’s at 27 and a half I can’t play that level on both of them right so I’m going to default a Rory who I think is a better course fit has better history here is coming off of a get right win like Rory just makes too much sense here and on top of that when when wind’s wind as good as wendham was last year in this event it was more a testament to how hot he was at that moment he’s not that hot right now yeah I think he he was that hot three four weeks ago but the last couple times we’ve seen him he wasn’t like like he didn’t need a fire a fire department to come out to hose him down because that that was what he was earlier the season when he kept Runner uping to Scotty and last year when he was just taking down everything I wouldn’t say that Rory’s been setting the world on fire though either like like so I if if it’s a battle of form again I’ll default the history uh he’s just got better history here overall yeah scores more DK points historically too so yeah and then I’m going to be splitting my second one in between Max and Colin with a little lean towards Max that’s where I’m different than you I’m G to be doing a uh some havin and some theala I actually sah theala looking good his short game’s so good and I really really like theala here I didn’t like him as an outright but mostly because of the odds but as weak in fantasy that’s really nice and as a DFS contributor I mean he he rated out eighth for me there’s some like there’s some issues with his proximity range 150 to 175 he’s not the best scorer on Long par fours but um great putter great middle of the pack in my model so not terrible yeah I mean good good overall Tia green though over the last 24 and he like he’s kind of that young guy that may start to separate himself from the rest of these guys and so I’m Gonna Keep playing him in DFS I don’t think we have the outright upside on him but DFS he’s a good good player and I think I’m GNA be sprinkling the eights pretty evenly Hideki I’ll have some Camy young in DFS because he scores a [ __ ] ton of points even if he doesn’t win he’s scoring us Points 11 out of 11 un Cuts made five top 10 83 points a a a game that’s really good uh maybe get buzzed I hate cam young I cannot get behind that but all right well I he’s going to be in the pool 15 20 % tops see Kim JT um I’m thinking I’m going to skip Jordan be this week he doesn’t score enough DFS points for me uh Russell Henley I think I’ll skip because he just doesn’t have the long approach game but Alex noren stat darling he actually showed up last year last week which surprised the hell out of me he’s a consistent player but I need more I need more I’d rather play Ben on because at least he’s got upside yeah I it’s I said it last week and I’m I’m uh disembarking from the uh I’m disembarking from the benan train screwed us so bad last week last week was uh the Pinnacle of my bet on run he didn’t get it done so we’re moving on um but yeah I think I think in this range for me um I do have interest in Alex noren I’m probably gonna play a fair amount of SEIU and Justin Thomas um Willie Z’s down here at that 79 Mark I think that that’s a pretty good price on Willie what’s been surprising to me is the amount of Love Cory Connor is getting I mean approaching 24% projected it’s I mean don’t you need some short game to play here I mean you gotta make putts periodically I mean you gotta be able to Chip he can’t chip either he’s got no short gain zero no dead last in this field in Strokes gain short game Dead last that’s the worst in this field if there were 68 golfers he’s 72nd [Laughter] he so bad if there’s 168 he’s 170th from T to Green he’s so good like he’s one of the most majestic golf swings in the world and you hand him a short club and it’s like what do I do where we go George where do we go should start playing left-handed from like 50 yards in it might help you never know I mean Matt Matt Fitzpatrick chips cross-handed maybe it’ll help him God it’s gross it’s so gross yeah it’s it’s will e z in this range for me to kind of get leverage on the field cuz nobody’s going to want to touch him with a 10-ft pole uh I like I like Sam Burns here a little bit in DFS because he’s so consistent and disrespected because because he’s a tier 2 golfer he doesn’t get a lot of play and a tier 2 golfer in DFS has a lot of value especially if nobody’s playing him yeah and I love how I like he’s number eight birdies are better gained like he scores a lot of DK points when he’s on 7700 for Sam Burns that’s a green flag yeah I can’t figure out why he’s so low like I I probably would have put him closer to like probably closer to Willie Z Brian Harmon he’s at four top 10 this year yeah I I think that that’s kind of a bit of a misprice like he’s he’s in the vicinity of where he should be priced but I mean Sam Burns I think has a really good value at 7700 so yeah locking that one in um any interest in Jaga bombs I think I think is going to be a lot like on for me like I think I think we’ve he didn’t burn us too bad he was a top 20 last week but yeah disappointing for what he should have done at that golf course and that’s kind of where I’m like looking now is like we had these guys that we had like a run where it was lesser competition easier courses tougher conditions and they didn’t get it done now we’re now we’re going the opposite way we’re getting tougher fields and tougher courses so yeah I’m gonna skip joerger because he’s 49th in my model and that surprised me I thought he would be a little higher because it was off the te game but the rest of it doesn’t quite measure up not as bad for me he’s still 19th but he’s he’s really not a very good long iron player um unfortunately um so yeah I’ll probably take a pass on him I I probably got in this range I got more interest in uh Denny McCarthy who who I already mentioned excellent putter uh good scram sandwich time um and I’m gonna take a pass on hogi so I’ll let you talk about him so hogi 82 points per week at 7200 is too good of a ratio like points per dollarwise for me like I think and I’m looking at like how does he measure up in my model really high and I know he’s a stat darling because his approach metrics are off the charts but 11th I can’t ignore that I can’t ignore Tom hogi at 11th of my model I’m not getting over the moon with him but a 10% Tom hogi line just in case he I mean he’s going to get 72 holes like everybody else and he can get hot and off the tea he’s terrible and he can’t putt but on approach he’s really really really good so I I just for The Vibes like I’m going to have hogi in the pool but yeah I’m going to be much more exposed to our guy Kurt kyama at 6,800 that’s the Mis price of all Mis prices in the history of Mis prices so yeah I’ll be at 35% or more on kittama at that price and the chalk hasn’t CAU up to that either so I’m I’m going to cross my fingers that no not too many people watch this show because um it it could go the other way yeah I can’t argue with you on uh the kittama take I hogi for me I I don’t know what it is but just another guy that like he yeah he’s lingering around but like not very long off the tea not very accurate off the te no he cannot hit the ball off the tea also can’t putt he should just do driver off the deck off the tea because he’d do so much better but yeah I just I just can’t get there this week on him um I you know I’ll probably be back I’m a sucker for hogi as we all know you’re such a sucker such a sucker um but the guys in the sixes are better than the guys in the sevens in my opinion yeah I think so too and kittama to your point like the nice thing is he’s projected at 10% right now like I can defin I can definitely stomach like even doubling the field and being at like 20% on kittama just because you are getting four rounds you can risk a little bit more down here at the bottom these guys are going to put up some points for you and I think kyama might be one of the more prolific possible scorers in this in this range and the best part about him is he doesn’t beat himself like this guy doesn’t like he might not make every opportunity convert every opportunity but like you’re not going to see big crooked numbers on the card for him especially in this kind of conditions he’s he’s so steady that we hope he makes enough birdies to kind of hang around the top um but even if he doesn’t this is of Great Value in the DFS points per dollar is everything and then the whatever is left is leverage and he has both this week you like it you like it all right pav yep we’re doing good saan uh yeah no argument from me there I think that’s another misprice yeah I don’t I don’t follow that one I I’m tempted with Jake knap I’m tempted just because he does get four rounds he can bomb the ball his long approach is what we actually really like about him um actually it had been a pretty good putter prior to the Saturday and Sunday episodes y he didn’t make anything like on Thursday and Friday he couldn’t miss I’m tempted to go right back to him just with the guaranteed four rounds I think it takes some pressure off of him so so we got to ask the question because we have multiple Canadians watching Taylor pendrith uh we we talked about him last week as this maddeningly inconsistent he either contends or misses the cut in a burst of flames and this week and and last week this dude was hitting stripe shows off the tea dead center of the Fairway 310 to 325 every time this guy was so good off the tea and we see that half of the time I mean a lot of lot of people just completely IR religious about never banking on a rep on a winner from last week he’s so cheap nobody wants him because they’re afraid that we’re going to get the Mr Hyde version of Dr Jackal here Taylor pendrith is the most volatile golfer in this field and we saw the greatest of him last week in the win [Music] is that a question I just I’m I had to save my piece because I did talk about him last week as as a guy that I was interested in and I didn’t bet on him I had him in DFS which didn’t help me because three other guys missed the cut but it was like nap and pendrith and nobody else I was just I was just laughing because of course that’s the guy that wins is the guy that I was like I’m only going to put him in the pool because he has great upside yeah I mean here’s the thing with pendra right like just to back you up TI green he rates out 53rd in this field approach he rates out 56th I mean he got it he he does put up birdies and bunches he is good at scrambling but the rest of his stats are like really middle of the road and yeah this is a tough field on on a course that is going to require some gain off the tea as well as a proach like I could see Taylor pendrith being the type of guy that could run hot enough to repeat but like not a Quail Hollow I don’t think I don’t think this is his uh his Jam so Connor is rated out eighth even though I’m ignoring him because his short games non-existent the rest of the Canadians in this field of which there are five are all in the bottom 10 of my model so I am sorry to say I am fading all Canadians all the Canucks are in not in my field this week I’m sorry I didn’t mean for it to happen this way I was hoping one of them besides Connors would pop to the top but it didn’t happen I uh got Taylor you got Mackenzie Hughes you got all these guys ma Hughes would be the the one that I would look at but Hughes is dead last in my model that is that’s not good not great uh he’s 33rd in mine he’s right in the middle and but to your point the Canadians for whatever reason venson 65th TL 56 pendrith 55th oh man it’s bad done at the risk of offending 3/4 of our viewership um I’m not I’m I mean no offense by it it’s just it’s alarming it’s very alarming yeah uh oh Canada oh Dee made it in here Dee we love you thank you for joining us um so getting down here uh uh Kevin TW 6200 for me I got some interest in Sheamus power at 6200 as well Sheamus from Ireland from Ireland he can put the lights out and then yeah like I said Nick Dunlap is my guy at six flat this week that like when I’m really stacking super heavy up top it’s Kevin TW and Nick Dunlap down here that um will’ll find their way into a couple of lineups like it’ll be those super top heavy builds but both of them rated out decent enough for me both of them been playing good golf this year so I feel more confident in them being able to put up some DFS points down here that’s terrifying I said more more confident okay yeah I get it it’s it’s fine all right so are we gonna do the Hat pick after we pick who’s gonna win yeah you can’t Jinx the Hat by making the Hat pick first yeah okay so who’s gonna win the thing besides Rory because we agree that Rory is the favorite here um I I think uh I think I think I’m going to go Windham Clark back go maxom and I know you’re on we’re both on board with one of those two guys it’s not not we’re going to say no no we said the other one oh no uh first round leader I like Sam Burns Sam Burns I think I’ll go Colin morawa he’s a Thursday player so col more CWA first round leader I think winning score is going to be 16 underpar I’m going to go higher I’m GNA say n 19 again for tie the course record tie the course record okay I I don’t think that’s it’s going to get there but um yeah let’s see hat pick do you have it ready I don’t have it ready but I will have it ready I got my model ready should we dim the lights and do it like an effect when the hack comes on screen we need a we need a new drop for it we do need a new drop for the Hat the Hat’s been fire number 16 in our models 16 oh my God I actually forgot that this guy was a Canadian I think Grayson [Music] Murray mat pavon hey not bad not bad I don’t know hat I don’t know that it’s not your every time we doubt the Hat we get we get graser graser and etaria dude the Hat crushed at the Zurich yeah the Hat crushed at the Zurich with the super duper long shot it crushed last week with Kevin TW super duper long shot top 10 finish I actually don’t hate the Pavone call I mean maybe the Hat on something Pavone we talked about most of the time it’s a guy we don’t even talk about like Grayson Murray the Hat picks Lucas Clover all right from Conor Coughlin I of course am Bo MC prer this has been the 19th toll as always live on in between media join us next week for the second major of the PJ tour season the PGA Championship at Heavenly Valhalla it’s Heavenly um Connor any parting words just trying to find the drop are we yes cheers to everyone yes sir [Music]
