PGA DFS Rankings for The CJ CUP Byron Nelson – Noto’s PGA Model

Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) is back to break down the field for The CJ CUP Byron Nelson this week! You can get a peek at Noto’s PGA Model, available to download for Premium users and complete with customization options to put you ahead of the field in your PGA DFS contests!

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what is up everybody we are back to talk about the CJ cup Byron Nelson really rolls off the tongue doesn’t it uh this event has changed names over the years but it has been held at the TBC Craig Ranch each of the last three years so we got three years of data to work with um the course is a par 71 7,414 yards located in mckin Texas uh the winners here last three years Jason day won here last year KH Lee won here in 2022 and 2021 so we won back toback years terms of difficulty very easy course um this has been one of the six easiest courses on the PJ tour each of the last three years uh the winning scores have been I think 23 25 and 26 under par the PJ tour did try to make scoring a little bit tougher by changing one of the par fives into a par four doesn’t really change the course at all it just changes you know one number on the scorecard so technically it’s going to be four strokes tougher than when it was a par five although they did shorten the core uh the hole a little bit uh from like 530 to 490 yards something like that but uh you would think that of course at 7,400 yards that has water in play on 13 holes that has Tree Line Fairways would be somewhat of a tough test for the professionals but that is not the case extremely easy course um the Fairway is pretty wide greens are pretty big um in terms of last year the tournament averages driving distance was 295 yards driving accuracy was 61% green regulation was 69% um they’re three part fives that are all reachable in two by most of the field there is a drivable par 4 as well and the front line on this course is the easiest on the PJ tour so you definitely want to make your uh money on the front line if you are uh betting if you like live betting I don’t mind um guys that start off on the back nine that you know maybe don’t start off as hot as some of the other guys on the front nine you might be able to get a good live number on them uh once the tournament starts but uh we will see about that um terms of the approach shots 70% um of the approach shots in 2023 came from at least 150 yards so you’re getting a lot of mid and long irons not a lot of wedges at this course and I do think scrambling is going to come into play typically at a birdie Fest I’d look at putting more than scrambling because the field is all hitting greens and regulation but here the GRE green regulation rate isn’t all that high it was 69% last year and you’re probably going to be scrambling on the three part fivs you know you’re getting it up by the green got to get up and down for birie and then on the driveable part four as well so there’s going to be more scrambling opportunities than you might expect terms of what I’m looking for ball striking show skin putting around the green experience in Texas birer better percentage that’s pretty much it in terms of course history has not been very predictive year in and year out even though kally won this event back toback years you can show up here and play well uh you don’t need extensive course knowledge in order to play well at this course now let’s get into the model uh for this week I have 6% weight to off the te 6% weight to Total driving I did I am starting to even out the weights in terms of the time frames um over the last you know couple months I’ve been placing a bigger weight to um the longer term stats it’s because we haven’t had a ton of sample size from 2024 just yet but now that we’re you know four months into of the season I do think we have big enough sample size so I’m putting even weights over the last three months the last six months and the last 12 months so I’m looking off the total driving strok scin approach uh the expected column here in the strok gain approach uh category basically takes a look at how many approach shots each golfer is expected to hit from each yardage bucket and then applies their stros gain numbers to those buckets and then comes up with a a rating for this specific course so at this specific course the model expects these guys to gain the most Strokes on approach you have Tom hogi Tom Kim LC list chz reevy Mark H sewu Kim Sam Ryder kind of rounding out your top few there we have round the green at 5 percent again that’s pretty high for a birdie uh birdie Fest stros putting I put it at 12% um then birdie rade at 6% bogy voes at 6% I don’t mind flipping these a little bit if you want to go ahead and do 33 three one one1 just to kind of get more scoring I certainly don’t mind that approach this week or you could even bump up or your better percentage even higher I will note that the forecast is calling for a lot of rain a lot of wind um pretty much over all four days we’ll have to see if that holds come Thursday morning but uh we could see some delay we could see some tougher scoring conditions but at the same time we’ve seen some bad wins at this course in the past and golfers have still been able to to teared up uh and I’m now just noticing that my green hoodie is um going in with the green screen behind me so I kind of look uh a little invisible but uh course history again we only have three years of data to work with I only put it at 2% in terms of the weight the course fed this comes from data golf stros G on TBC courses so if there’s a correlation there between all the TBC courses on the PJ tour Sun JM Tom Kim norin we know K Le um loves the TBC courses and then you got the easy courses so these are going to be very easy courses where scores are very low sunjay again pendrith noren Tom Kim so these over the last two years so a little bit bigger sample size there uh the form over the last 10 weeks this is just for you to look at um so you can see how often golfers are playing how well they are playing recently then we have the different um form buckets again I’m starting to tighten the dispersion of Weights between shortterm and longterm so I got 11% 12% 133% there um as always you have the manual adjustment column you can go through and adjust these if you would like so I bumped up Cas s because for whatever reason he loves TBC courses and he loves this course um so I bumped him up a little bit so I’m getting more exposure to him in my builds and lineup HQ on rotor Grinders and if you are a premium member you get access to lineup HQ you get access to this model you can create your own ratings you can upload them into lineup HQ um and build your build your lineups based on your own thoughts or your own input it’s kind of cool if you want to check it out please do so I think we have a deal going on with the combo package um so yeah if you’re interested let me know or just sign up as far as the overall rankings number one of the models going to be Adam Scott little bit interesting there I mean he’s the fifth most expensive on DraftKings and six months expensive on FanDuel will zot toes did withdraw today so that’s another 10K option out of the player pool but yeah uh Scott’s number one in the model number one in the stab model p32 T8 here last two years he’s been pretty solid this year if you look at his individual strok gain numbers they are all over the place one week he’s gaining off around the green the next week he’s gaining uh on approach and putting um he just needs to put all four together I actually bet him outright at 25 to1 um I also bet sew Kim at 18 to1 he’s just been playing so well he’s he’s been great T green he just hasn’t been able to putt well but he hasn’t miss a cut this year five straight top 30 finishes finished second here last year he’s gained at least 5.7 Strokes uh T Green in six of his last eight starts so really good numbers there um that could help especially if the wind picks up speed I don’t know what to do with speed so if you look at his recent form I mean 30th miscut miscut 10th miscut t39 um not the best numbers but he loves Texas he’s obviously from Texas back toback top 10 here seems like a good course for him with the wide Fairways so no issue with be especially with the lack of other options but I kind of like starting my lineups in the 9ks you can get norin and Scott rather than you know playing one of the 10K guys noren’s been awesome great form five trade top 25 finishes back toback top 25 finishes here likes the win loves easy courses so I do like norin quite a bit Jagger I think he’s going to get um just go overlooked a little bit for whatever reason uh people just tend to fade golfers coming off of a recent win especially when it’s their first one on the PJ tour uh and Jagger did that you know he won the what was it the Valero I want to say um and then miss the cut at the Masters and t18 at the RBC so he’s a good course fit I think he should play well here back-to-back top 40 finishes for him at this event Jason day one here last year he’s kind of been struggling with his game ever since he’s flashing him upside but most of it’s been with the short game so I’d like to see a little bit more with the before I trust him in DFS the price points not all that enticing you know I’ll have a little bit of him in mme but for single entry for my main lineup for three max I’m looking to start with Scott norin maybe Jagger 2 maybe SEI wo rather than the 210k guys Doug G projects so well I just don’t know what to do I mean he was great towards the start at the start of the season and then miss cut miscut miscut t43 but he did finish t19 here last year the model loves him he likes TPC courses 7700 is great price and 10% ownership I might have to bite the bullet on that one shank’s been playing well so consistent he’s one of those golfers that can gain Strokes in all facets of his game so I like him quite a bit Hog’s the best iron player in the field no matter what time frame you’re looking at look at this 111 and he’s number one in the expected Strokes game category made his last two cuts here playing some really solid golf right now um hover is very safe he’s been making a lot of cuts he’s two for two here like him in All formats Tom K finally flashing a little bit of upside t-26 at the Masters t18 to RBC back to back top 35s here this one of the few events that he’s actually seen for the third time so I do like that quite a bit um he’s not a bomber by any means he’s actually one of the shorter hitters off the te but he hits a ton of Fairway so that will be um you know into an un Advantage for him and he’s very good with his mid and long irons we have Aaron Ry who missed a cut at caralis his last time out but um yeah he tends to play well in the wind so I don’t mind looking at him is a guy that uh you know flashed a lot of upside last summer didn’t quite get his PJ tour card back on the corn fairy tour finished 10th and his last start there then got a spot start in corales finished top 10 there which earned him another spot into this field um any he finished T14 here last year he’s bomber that makes a lot of birdies I think he makes a lot of sense at 7500 Keith Mitchell has been awesome ball striking just can’t make a chip or a putt um Davis Thompson’s been pretty consistent Benny on I’m thinking about betting him out I just don’t know the model doesn’t love him at the price point but I mean he does have a lot of upside the for has been all over the place but T14 year last year his biggest strengths off the te and around the green that should play well here that’s kind of similar to Jason day although Jason day is a much better putter but uh yeah I think he’s interesting sunj I just I haven’t seen enough from him um his T12 at RBC was encouraging but it was mostly short game a lot of putting K Le again he loves his course don’t mind playing him mcil is kind of doing everything well except hitting the irons um if you look here pretty good off the TU especially over the last three months um the approach plays getting a little bit better but still 67th over the last three months is not great very good around the green very good putter U very good at avoiding Bogies so I think he’s safe to make the cut I just don’t know what his upside is if he’s not gonna hit the irons well they say to always play B hustler in Texas don’t mind it 7,800 it’s a pretty good price point I love Nate Lashley the model I always loves Nate Lashley he’s come through off than not I think uh this three-week stretch the model was on him then didn’t like him actually that was corales so I didn’t run the model for corales but um it’s been on him lately he’s been playing well um and he’s above field average in every Strokes game category couple top 25s here placed a hefty bet on him to finish in the top 40 this week McKenzie Hughes finally showing some ball striking he’s a short game specialist but five straight top 40 finishes I’m on board with him Justin l got a couple good at least a couple made cuts at this event and then let’s take a look at the point per dollar columns and we’ll get out of here again if you are a r if you are an RG premium member you can download the model you can read all these notes um that I left over here not as many as you’ll typically see like a major but I think I do have like 40 or 50 notes in the model this week uh and then you can play around with the filters and and all that stuff as well um so number one in point for dollar you have gim then Quest and Lashley Jimmy Stanger pretty small sample size but he has Flash from upside don’t mind looking at him in tournaments uh we talked about all these guys Martin lard quietly he’s made five straight cuts and uh you know made the cut here last year don’t hate him at 6,800 yeah Ben Griffin’s been playing a little bit better the irons have kind of come alive over his last four starts I should just about do it Ryan Moore maybe um been playing a little bit better this year but yeah I want to thank you for joining me hit the thumbs up on your way out if you don’t mind if you have any questions leave them in the comments I’ll try to get to them uh before Thursday lineup lock so good luck everybody catch you next week