Check out my DFS Preview, Thoughts, Course Overview, Picks, Strategy, and Advice for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Contests on DraftKings.
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[Music] welcome back to Bray Birds DFS one of the best places for PGA NFL MLB and NBA news and of course DFS if you don’t know by now I’m Walt if you haven’t already please like And subscribe to my Channel all right so let’s jump into my analysis of the CJ cup Byron Nelson no classic no tournament just the CJ cup Byron Nelson so when Mak my lineups the first thing I do is look at the recent form so we can pull up the recent form uh slide and we can see that as far as recent form number one and recent form in this field is SE wo Kim then you have Alex noren but then I want to take some time to stop on Mackenzie Hughes so every week I highlight a uh a golfer that their salary on DraftKings doesn’t match their recent form and every week so far that person has either made the cut or has done well so McKenzie Hughes is third in recent form in his relatively weak field but his salary is 15th so we are getting a still of a deal on Mackenzie Hughes so I’m going to be over the field because I like a good deal I like roses I like bigl I like Dollar Tree I like a good deal and McKenzie Hughes being 15th in salary but third in recent form is a Mitch Match that we should take advantage of and then we have Adam shank and we have Tom hogy all right so what are the things to consider so the tournament is going to be at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinley Texas that’s just north of Dallas so it moved to TPC Ranch TPC Craig Ranch in 2021 so because of that for for DFS analysis purposes I’m ignoring everything before 2021 they didn’t have a tournament in 2020 because of covid I am ignoring it because it doesn’t help you because those stats don’t mean anything so very weak field only five of the top 40 players are going to be in the field the weather looks kind of dicey for Thursday and Saturday it’s uh getting into the springtime so it’s always dicey in places like Texas and Florida but I have some concerns about some delays on Thursday and Saturday but really there’s there’s a chance of thunderstorms at least a 30 to 40% chance every day of this tournament this is going to be a birdie Fest we’ll talk in a slide or two about what I mean by that uh the cut line is going to be top 65s and ties and based on the three years we’ve been at the TPC Craig Ranch the cut line will be between uh four and six under par so who have been the winnner since they moved to TPC Craig Ranch where you had Jason Day last year his salary is 10,400 we’ll talk about the pros and cons of paying up for that he won with a score of 2300 parts so definitely firmly in birdie Fest territory and then the first two years uh that the tournament was moved to TPC Craig wrench KH Lee won back toback years and he is a nice affordable 8,300 he won with a score of 26 uh underpar and 25 underpar last year he didn’t do as well I think he finished t50 so but nonetheless those have been the only winners that I’m going to focus on since the tournament has only been at TPC Craig Ranch for three years so more about TPC Craig Ranch it’s pretty long 744 yards it has wide Fairways this is a very forgiving course which is why the the scores are so low uh it’s a par 71 you have four par 3es 11 par fours and three par fives so what are the stats that I’m going to focus on in my analysis for you birdies are better at a birdie Fest if you’re making pars you are losing let me tell you my I was I was playing I invited my friend to a contest for a birdie Fest earlier this year and he was just shocked because he had all of these players that if it were the Masters or the players or you know a more challenging tournament he was like man why am I not even you know men cashing I’m like man this is a birdie Fest so we need to Target those players that actually go after those birdies then our the approach game is going to always be important we’re going to look for driving distance I mean the because of how the fairways are set up in the courts in general I mean you just got to go for it so those players that can actually go forward as far as that driving distance are players we should consider and then par five scoring because once again you want to get those birdes and really honestly some Eagles on the par fives so looking at all those things Who are the players to Target so Tom hogi you know I have a love hate relationship with Tom hogi I just told you about his recent form but if you watched my video last week you know that he had a quino bogey uh and on the fourth round two weeks ago that basically just took me out of the money I was I was in third place and then is quintuple Bogi I think I dropped to like 50 or 60th place so it was it was terrible it was terrible uh but that being said in this week field Tom hogi is is a stud I mean he is killing it when it comes to birdies and birdies are better and a Str game approach so um I mean there’s just’s no denying it he’s really someone that I think we all should Target and then we have Cam champ we know he’s he’s a he’s a beast when it comes to driving distance and then we have Nick Dunlap he’s really good at par five scoring and then we have Sheamus Powers this course history he’s the only person who’s finished in the top 20 all three years since he’s been at TPC Craig Ranch and then you have Jordan Speed who also has good course history all right so let’s move over to DraftKings and I’m going to give you my five recommend like I always do uh the people 10,000 and above 9,000 8,000 7,000 and 6000s so we can look and see really there only two players above 10,000 and I have a warning warning warning spe and day are not coming in in good recent form as all at all we can look at speed he’s made seven out of 10 cuts three three top 10 but his last five tournaments t39 cut T10 Valero and they’re not including the Zurich Classic so we’re just going to they’re not including draft team is not including that so we know that happened but t39 cut T10 cut cut his recent form is terrible and he’s the most expensive player but his course history is great and then day one last year so he has good recent course history but his recent form 18th 30th cut 35th 36 so all I’m saying is you can fade spe and but I have to pick one for this so I’m going to pick spee because of the course history but like I said recent form not the best moving into the 9000s I’ve already told you Tom Hog’s a stud he’s killing it birdies are better he’s killing it on approach so he’s made 11 out of 12 Cuts two top 10 uh we can see that he’s finished 18 14 54 12th and 28th so I mean I feel like this is his tournament to lose we go into the 8,000 I told you I I got to get my best value play play Mackenzie huge good recent form made n out of 10 cuts we can see 39th 14 3rd 26 and 30th and he’s 8600 so I love that moving to the seven top 7000s and we have Sheamus Powers who once again is the only player who’s made it who’s finished in the top 20 all three years uh he’s made nine out of 11 cuts no top 10 but I think this is going to be the week when he makes that top 10 and in the 6000 so I was wavering between Dunlap and and cam champ and Dunlap just had a better year we know cam champ is either hot or cold he’s either going to finish 12th or 112th I mean there’s just no in between he’s either going to ruin your lineup or he’s going to be that surprise dun lap we know has won as an amateur on the tournament on the on the tour this year I think the American Express yet W on the American Express so I mean he just had a better year but I was I was kind of on the fence between Dunlap and cam champ all right so let me know your thoughts if you have any questions or comments leave them but otherwise go out there and win that at guac
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Appreciate ya 👊🏼