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it’s a numbers game with Gil Alexander
that’s me Kelly Bin’s to my right that’s
him how you doing man doing great just
doing great I need the draft to get here
because I need to stop making bets um
just get here let’s pick the pcks so we
can move along it’s every day there’s a
different story it’s weird with these
days like especially this week cuz we’re
like we’re up really late watching NBA
and stuff like that but I had that
moment like driving in this morning I’m
like the draft is tomorrow already
tomorrow we can finally say that happen
yeah but then at the same time you’re
also like I feel like we’ve been talking
about draft for seven straight weeks
when obviously that’s not true and when
I step back and just because I didn’t
step back when I was driving in this
morning this is true I was thinking to
myself
self do you have any idea what’s going
to happen after two and the answer is I
have no clue no idea no idea and we sort
of threw it in about Drake May yesterday
we were like he specifically is the guy
that you could I no idea he could go he
could go second or not in the first
round tomorrow and I don’t know if I’d
be surprised it feels like an Aaron
Rogers drop kind of thing when Darren
Rogers dropped yeah I don’t know not to
compare him to Aaron Rogers but you get
the idea Aaron Rogers went what 24th
that year um the year that Alex Smith
went number one we will talk NFL draft
with Will hill uh jvt in addition to the
NBA will have some NBA uh some NFL draft
thoughts as we CA NAD who will talk golf
with us but he too will have NFL draft
thoughts David silverston senior draft
an analyst at ourlads scouting services
will join us as well Kelly to talk NFL
draft how he thinks this is going and
then there’s Jason we Garten who for
God’s sakes who knows what he’ll talk
about maybe even taking a new Dei job
somewhere like he talked about last time
I don’t know um before we get into all
of that including the NBA with jbt let
me get the Guardians portion out of the
way because if you allow me to talk
Guardians I may go on for two hours so
let’s get it on right here Guardians win
yesterday for those of uh for those who
are who have either jumped on this bet
with me and I know there’s a lot of you
who have and also to those who have been
so kind to say they’re not even involved
but they’re rooting us on thank you to
you love you for that Guardians win come
from behind win over the Red Sox
yesterday 4 to1 that brings them to 17-
six so again
um the initial handicap those 17 games
against the Oakland Athletics seven of
them the white socks three and the Red
Sox 7 why the Red Sox in that group I
rated the Red Sox worse than most people
did so I threw them in that group and I
thought those were the 17 games they had
to make hay on and they have they’re 12
and3 now with two of those games
remaining today and tomorrow against the
Red Sox but Kelly that’s the good news
the Guardians control their own destiny
six games left the that’s the good news
the bad news is this ain’t over because
they got those six games left and the
Braves and the Yankees just won’t go
away Braves specifically go away Braves
and Yankees go away Braves are 16- six
the Yankees are 16 and8 they are the
only two teams within one win of the
Guardians now remember the rules are
different here at Circa uh the
tiebreaker is fewest losses if you end
up with the same amount of wins and then
the second tiebreakers run differential
the Guardians have the edge and run
differential by 12 over the Braves and
are tied with the Braves for the fewest
losses so the the tiebreakers look good
now if it’s a DraftKings it’s a dead
heat and this would be let’s put it this
way if we won this and you got dead
heated that’d be a sucky thing to to get
that math taken from you um but here’s
the deal and I just want to couch it
this way right now I’m going to say that
the two games tonight and tomorrow are
and we can say this about all six games
obviously but tonight and tomorrow
specifically to me are monster and
here’s why um follow me here uh remember
when I went through the path earlier I
said this was a series they they had to
go two and one in at least if they can
go 3 and 0 it would be ideal meaning
winning today and winning tomorrow by
the way thank goodness we didn’t get
rained out yet yesterday literally
dancing through the the raindrops I
don’t they were dancing oh yeah I forgot
about that but they just got that game
in thank goodness I’ve been checking the
scores I was text you have been checking
the scores e night but I forgot we were
talking about rain on the show I thought
all day it wasn’t going to get played we
were going to have a double header today
but they got it in the Guardians won it
4 to one so here’s the deal if the
Guardians can somehow win today and
tomorrow that would make them 19 and six
let’s assume the Braves beat the Marlins
that would make them and they don’t play
tomorrow that would make them 17 and six
so now remember this the only team that
has been unluckier than the Guardians
the Guardians who not only lost the game
to rign in Minnesota but also lost their
Ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery
is the Braves the Braves lost their Ace
to Tommy John surgery Spencer Strider
and they lost two games to rign that
aren’t going to get rescheduled in the
framework of the BET March and April
wins so if if the Guardians I’m about
say we Kelly if the GU I’m just
borrowing them for the month Adam Burke
if uh if the Guardians can go up two
wins with the same amount of losses
heading into what we always know what we
always knew to be the hard part of this
schedule the last four games at three at
three at Atlanta and the last one at
Houston and then the month of April ends
that’s why it’s only one but if you can
go up on the Braves two in the win
column heading into that three game set
at at Atlanta essentially what it gives
you against the Braves is the cushion to
only go one and two in that series and
still have the edge over Atlanta heading
into your last game so what it does is
unless you get swept it cushions you
from a somewhat disaster right so if you
go one and two you still have the edge
over the Braves and then you say yeah
but Gil what about the Yankees who won’t
who still have 16 wins you’re right the
Yankees are still a problem because the
Yankees have one more game to play than
the Guardians do but here’s the deal
with the Yankees after these two games
against the A’s today and tomorrow then
they’ve got five at Milwaukee and at
Baltimore total five games and you got
to figure that in those five games where
they’re at Milwaukee and Baltimore those
teams are all going to beat up on each
other so I think getting back to the
original point tonight and tomorrow are
the most Monster of all monstrosity for
the Guardians for the reason stated I
think if you can somehow figure
obviously got to win at least one of
them going back to the two- one in this
series to to move this
along but if you can win both of those
and sweep the Red Sox and get us to 14
and three in those 17 games and have
that two win Edge over the Braves
knowing what the Yankee schedule is
coming up despite your schedule it will
be such a great position to be in so
just absolutely huge today tomorrow any
thoughts of taking like I don’t know
over what what are they got over two to
one on the A’s and stuff like that
playing the Yankees right now Braves got
a soft
schedule just to hedge a little bit off
I’m not I’m not playing this not
touching him I’m not just fig bring it
up nope don’t let’s not pollute this
it’s too early to even think about other
things like that um but this has gone as
well as possible so far six games left
though nothing is certain um let’s go to
the NFL draft because one bit of big
news at least from the rumor mill
happened last night and it’s from our
own Michael Lombardi did you catch this
Kelly I did would you like you want to
hit the uh the sort ofish breaking news
first oh it’s a sort of breaking Reggie
Bush got his Heisman Trophy back Reggie
Bush got his Heisman Trophy back ladies
and gentlemen I didn’t expect to wake up
this morning and see that immedately um
he got it because he got it back because
essentially the Heisman committee said
um because of enormous changes in the
college football landscape here’s your
Heisman back and what they really mean
of course is I get it you were nil
before nil was allowed but now since nil
is allowed here you go my question as I
said off air was this okay if that’s the
case if you’re giving Reggie Bush’s
Heisman back shouldn’t USC get that
Championship reinstated too like BCS
could you come back we need an emergency
meeting I know it’s been 20 years come
on back we need we we need to give him
their Championship back it was a great
it was a great additional question by
you I had to go down the rabbit hole and
you’re like oh yeah just we got to get
the BCS uh presidential oversight
committee back together uh and I don’t
know how we’re going to be able to do
that to get USC their Championship back
I mean that has to happened though right
like you can’t you can’t do this with
Reggie Bush was stupid then it’s even
stupider now it’s all this taking away
championships was nonsense I kind of
feel like the Reggie Bush Heisman thing
like a little bit like the Sixers Nicks
uh like last twom minute report where
you’re like it you don’t really need to
make this public like just the last
two-minute report meaning we were wrong
Tyrese Maxi got fouled not once but
twice be wrong about four things by the
way uh but like is it shouldn’t it just
be like hey Reggie Bush here’s your
Heisman here’s like 10 million for us
like hurting your your life and likeness
and career over the past 20 years kind
of yeah they’re not going to go that far
but anyway good for Reggie Bush get your
eyes back okay so Bill 80 does the
newsletter your uh Bill’s late nights
become your early mornings Celly I don’t
know if you know that and he writes the
joy of six quarterbacks so he’s talking
about he had a bunch of meetings on
Tuesday this is Bill talking out right
and he looks at his inbox and he’s got
Michael Lombard’s email and Michael
Lombardi wrote a column on the Cowboys
prospects um that they need positions
they need this offic season and then
Bill said he gets to the last paragraph
and Michael writes this I am sold on the
quarterbacks going early and believe
there will be six in the first round I
don’t believe six are worthy only that
teams need answers at the most important
position six bill says hm so Michael
leardi by the way coming here to Las
Vegas uh to uh be on our draft
coverage and Bill sees him at cira and
he goes hey what’s the deal with the six
quarterbacks and Michael says quote yes
I have a good source that b Knicks will
go in the first round then he ask
Michael penck Jr to Lombardi says
yes so that makes six along with Caleb
Jaden Drake and JJ first name bases by
the way you’re tight with them yeah so
all right total quarterbacks in the
first round which I have an under on
I’ll be wrong about that if that’s the
case but over is what like $3 again
Nicks 32 and a half I think the under
was plus money at least as of this
morning
pennx is also set at 32 and a half draft
position his under is heavily
Juiced the four and a half number does
keep fluctuating a bit huh oh it’s been
it’s been up and down but if you buy
into what Lombardi is saying if you
believe him and his sources it’s going
to be
six which I got no idea I mean I I mean
we talk about it all the time I I we’re
about to talk to jvt he is very anti the
uh the whole Talk of the whole talk of
going back in the first round I think
once again it’s a draft that makes sense
where that could happen but I I I don’t
know and it it hasn’t happened as much
as we like to think it does getting back
to the original point I have no idea
what’s about to happen after one or two
I’m sold on Jaden Daniels to Wasing I
know others aren’t I mean same with
we’re talking about May earlier but same
with Nicks and penck right like I don’t
know if I’d be surprised they win it
15th or like in the fourth round I’m
starting to feel like this is a draft
where like I’m going to need alt to go
five just so I can erase some of the
other bets kind of thing I mean it could
be a spectacular draft it could be a
sucky draft I have no idea right now
after 2 that’s the latest rumor jvt next
on the draft in the
NBA a numbers game on vent the sports
betting Network experience The Thrill of
the NFL draft with V’s exclusive
coverage on Thursday that’s tomorrow
starting at 6 p.m Eastern with vent
Prime Time host Tim Murray Jonathan
vonel and special guest Mike gock Senor
and Mike gock Jr as they dive deep into
the draft prospects and predictions stay
locked in for specialedition edition of
the GM Shuffle at 8:00 p.m. Eastern
where former NFL exec Michael Lombardi
and femia be bring you real time
analysis of the first round picks
Michael give his thoughts on every draft
pick and trade as they happen watch the
special edition of the GM Shuffle on Von
DraftKings Network or on Von’s YouTube
page cap off the night at 11:00 p.m.
Eastern with visent tonight where
they’ll wrap up all the first round
action find all your NFL Draft betting
insights including Matt human’s Mock
Draft by the way as well at von.com
draft Gil Alexander Kelly bidin live uh
here at bar Canada the d uh we get
tweets real quick Ben McGovern I have no
skin in the game of the Guardians bet
but I’m rooting for you guys take it
down thank you Ben string fellow Hawk
riding with you Gilly at DK can you give
a crash course in Dead Heat rules uh
yeah Dead Heat rules uh essentially you
uh let me give you the the exact thing
is you’re dividing take your steak and
divide it by however many guys you T if
you have three winners you have to
divide it by three in terms of what
you’re you know if you had w at all by
yourself if if you’re tied with two
other people you have to divide it by
three but then I think you also have to
subtract your stake that’s where it gets
ugly the uh there’s also the there’s the
crash course in Dead Heat rules and then
there’s the real crash course in Dead
Heat rules when you finally hit one oh
and then you find out like oh I didn’t
know this happened the real life crash
course is the worst the first time it
happens um and then uh BP Futures bet
I’m not in on the Guardians B but I have
Tanner Hal on my fantasy team so I was
hoping for Quality H start ant late
Guardians win last night bingo best of
luck with this one thank you very much
appreciate it very much and Tanner H was
good not quite as unbelievable as he was
the first time that’s for sure when he
faced the Guardians he is our senior NBA
analyst he is the co-host uh of vent
Prime Time with Tim Murray he is
Jonathan Von toel everybody atme jvt on
Twitter courtesy the progressive guest
line jbt let me start with the draft
first of all good morning sir how are
you I’m good I’m good um I just ended
the last segment by talking about this
uh latest Michael Lombardi rumor that he
believes he has a source that says all
six are all six quarterbacks are going
in the first round you’re thought
sir so I I mean Lombardi obviously I
always say this with anybody not even
just Lombardi right Gil which is I think
anybody anybody talks to is probably
hearing exactly what they’re reporting
right I don’t think there’s any lying
going on whatsoever it’s just what’s the
accuracy of what you’re hearing and I I
I feel pretty confident in being where
I’m at in terms of under four and a half
quarterbacks and you know Lombardi even
notes like he doesn’t think these guys
are worth first- round picks and yet
they’re going to go in the first round
and what I’ve always found interesting
about whether it’s Lombard’s reporting
or anybody else’s reporting of that
matter when it comes to penic Knicks it
is always the caveat of I don’t think
these guys should be first round picks
but I think they’re going to go in the
first round and I’ll take you back to
the Malik Willis Kenny pick a draft we
heard the whole time leading up to the
draft that yeah we don’t think any of
these guys worth first- round picks but
we’re going to set the number three and
a half we think four are going in the
first round when end up happening one
guy went the first round so I I still
feel relatively confident that we’re
only getting four guys in okay before we
get to the NBA so your your favorite
bets that you have are under four and a
half quarterbacks at big plus money I
think you said plus 260 and what else
mhm uh let’s see I’m going to pull them
up right now so that one I’ve got over
um 9 and a half offensive linemen going
in the first round at minus 140 uh that
would be one of the ones that I do have
I’ve got Tennessee Titans to draft an
offensive lineman with their first pick
that would be at minus 300 uh as well as
here we go JJ McCarthy over 5 a half
plus 140 latu latu under 21 A2 at even
money we said total quarterback set
offensive Lin and Dallas Turner to go
eighth overall plus 340 I think those
are the six that I’m going to kind of go
into battle with Wow plus 340 solid on
Dallas Turner whether it happens or not
a solid number at this point um okay
let’s go to the NBA um you will be part
of the draft coverage tomorrow night so
uh people can look forward to that NBA
let’s start with the the four series
that are uh two games to nothing
including a couple that resulted in that
uh last night so of those four teams
that are down two to nothing of those
four teams Philly being perhaps the one
that leaps off the page but let me just
ask you are any of the teams that are
down would you make a serious bet on
them right now I I mean I think Philly’s
got to be the one right like so if we go
to I think the next obvious answer would
be Phoenix but I’m somebody that didn’t
really buy into Phoenix coming into this
postseason I thought they were
overvalued much as the market uh did
with them last season when they were
favored over the Denver Nuggets and
ended up losing that Series in six games
so I think Philly when you look at the
way this goes down and it’s funny we
talked to Mo deil of the athletic
yesterday Gil and he brought this up
which is Philadelphia’s got to be
frustrated because for the most part if
you look at it their game plan is
working right like they’re defending
Jaylen Brunson the right way they’re
doing everything they’re supposed to do
and yet these little things keep working
against them when you talk about the
foul calls at the end of the first game
the unreal shooting or ex I mean the
second game the unreal shooting that the
Knicks had in the first game and you can
kind of look at this and go I think you
kind of stick by your game plan if
you’re Philly and just trust that home
court holds out because home court is
worth something as we’re kind of seeing
here in the postseason some numbers
would indicate and then you go back to
New York and you got to steal one and
you just you have the best player on the
floor in terms of talent in joid so I
think it’s Philadelphia and I know a lot
of people might freak out about a two
nothing series lead but again you lose
both of those on the road you come back
home you take care of home court you go
back all Ned up 22 and it’s the best two
out of three so I don’t think you’re too
worried about it I mean look my team
they’re down one nothing or going be
they’re tied 1-1 the Clippers have had
plenty of Series in which they’ve gone
down two nothing and ended up winning
those series the year they went to the
Western Conference Finals the first two
series that they played they were down
two nothing and they ended up making it
to the final round to the Western
Conference playoffs so I I don’t think
you’re freaking out too much if you
believed in Philly I think that you’re
coming in here on a little bit of a plus
price on a team that you would argue is
a little undervalued by the market so
yeah I think it’s Philly no doubt okay
let’s since you bring up the Clippers
let’s get to them uh last night the
Mavericks not up the best of seven first
round series at one game a piece Luca
shouting at the crowd over and over when
he hits the dagger three late um kawhai
Leonard’s insertion into the lineup and
by the way jbt let me just say you let
me just tell you when the Clippers are
playing I am thinking about you I’m like
let me I’m going through your emotions
um but Kawai looked really kind of bad
yesterday didn’t he like does that worry
you that the insertion of him into the
lineup might actually be a net negative
here in the short term I mean I think
maybe in the first game right and I
actually I thought he did start to look
a little bit more comfortable as he went
down the stretch right he had a really
powerful offensive rebound and a put
back in the third quarter he had that
they had that Nifty play drawn up for
him that looked like he was going to get
an and one to cut the deficit to uh to
two and instead of course they rule that
it’s not a foul like so he he started to
look a little bit more comfortable as
the game went along so I think that now
as you look at it with a game under your
belt after missing nine right
essentially a month two days off to get
ready for a road game I think that’s
where you start to get a little bit more
like okay maybe he’s going to get back
but I don’t think there’s any doubt
especially in that first half didn’t
really look comfortable didn’t look
comfortable on the knee he was like hey
do I test it what do I do here his shot
was off but I I think playing that game
and then getting two to get ready for a
road game is going to feel like he’s
going to help them more often than not a
player that caliber should help you out
in the long run okay uh for someone land
on this series now would you Advocate a
bet at on the Clippers at plus 130 to
win the series um how would you play it
game three by the way uh the line that
has been established is the Mavericks by
three and a half in game three back in
Dallas yep I mean look I I think that
the Clippers are a little undervalued
you can make the argument through these
two games Gil like they’ve played really
well defensively their offense has just
been pretty poor but consecutive
offensive ratings are 105.5 for the
Dallas Mavericks last night they busted
out a very solid game plan of doubling
Luca making everybody else beat them and
it looked like maybe it was going to be
successful they’ve held them down pretty
solidly throughout these two games and
at the very least they have the better
offensive performance through two games
that was of course in game one so you’re
starting to see maybe that there is
something that’s working here but I
would say is somebody who just came into
this right with the future ticket on
somebody who thinks that the Clippers
undervalued I would generally advocate
for yes like I think the Clippers are a
little undervalued we saw last night
market opened up four came off of that
kind of quickly we’re at three and a
half across the board there’s some
agreement there of course with kawh
Leonard back to and more comfortable I
would say yes like if if you’re just
dropping in I do think the Clippers are
a little bit more live than the general
consensus would be but of course I’m
like uh you know what’s the what’s the
meme with everybody in the the you know
the pitch pitch fors and the Torches and
it’s just me in the middle of all of
them it very much feels that way but I
do think that there is some value here
on an undervalue Clippers team if the
Clippers had won I was going to ask you
how many times do you scream like with
your kids next to you like yeah told you
like that was
just my wife well my kids go to bed for
like they’re about in bed by about 8
8:30 so with the the victim is my wife
who sits there and tries to read a book
on the couch
while I’m sitting there like sh you know
shaking her and when they went up by six
points and I was sitting there like
let’s go Norm you know after Norm hit
the the three-point shot uh but I knew I
knew I I even told her after I hit that
and I calmed down I was like they’re
going to lose this game sure enough they
did so she’s like I I married this all
right tonight Celtics by 14 and a half
over the Heat game two Thunder seven and
a half game two over the Pelicans any
thoughts and he bets yeah I think you’re
yeah I think you’re going so I Haven
I’ll say this really quickly for the
Oklahoma City Thunder and the New
Orleans Pelicans I don’t fault anybody
for wanting to take the points uh with
New Orleans not so much just because of
the base result like hey they didn’t
cover you know the the Pelicans average
excuse me um grabed 35.6% of their Miss
shots guys in that game they had 18
offensive rebounds had second chance
opportunities that’s not something
that’s generally going away against an
Oklahoma City Thunder team is as we’ve
talked about a lot is so much smaller is
going to have trouble keeping teams off
the board but the real thing to watch
out for guys and the market has adjusted
a bit here Josh giddy only had 20
minutes in that first game for City he
is a guy that you can put your Center on
that you can play off of defensively you
don’t have to worry about him spacing
the floor I think we’re going to start
to see his minutes dwindle here in this
series and you’re still looking at
points rebounds and assists at about 21
and a half he might be worth playing
under in this series until you see a
real solid adjustment because I think
he’s going to get played off the floor a
guy like K Wallace is going to be a guy
that’s going to take some of those
minutes from him I actually texted in a
group chat I’m like wow giddy gets no
crunch time play at all like he’s not
even a thought um tomorrow night since
we won’t be able to talk you before them
uh Magic by two in game three over
Cleveland trying to get off the schneide
Sixers by four and a half over the
Knicks Lakers by one your knee-jerk as
best bet there is it would be this
Philadelphia 76ers laying the laying the
points there game three getting back uh
getting on the board I should say in
this series down two to nothing to the
Knicks jbt uh we look forward to the
draft coverage tomorrow night mag thank
you so much Jonathan Von toel everybody
at mjbt vent Prime Time week nights 600
p.m. right here at the network uh we
come back so much to discuss baseball
NFL draft next with Will
hill a numbers game on VN the sports
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version in today’s newsletter Michael
Lombardi talking about all the
quarterbacks going and much more draft
coverage as we lead up to round one get
expert oh I’m sorry we didn’t didn’t
mean to step on you there kind of Y all
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book always appreciate the feedback best
listeners in the game period Doug Tuttle
didn’t Reggie just borrow money against
future earnings talk about Reggie Bush
getting his Heisman back was that the
story was that what he
did I don’t know I don’t know but they
got his Heisman back and it’s all
ridiculous give championships back give
Heisman back ride a
uh he goes uh was in a car going to
dinner listening to listening to
Cleveland my wife asked why are you
listening to the Red Sox I didn’t answer
then the seventh inning came along and
lots of questions were then asked to
me uh Michael Burns that was the
comeback Michael Burns sou pal Antonio
was on FTM this morning agreed with
Michael Lombardi he said 68 and 66
quarterback starters the last two years
League wide are driving uh is driving
this in his opinion talking about the
six quarterbacks Lombardi saying the six
quarterbacks will be drafted listen
we’ve said it a million times on this
show we get it teams you’re nothing in
this league without a starting
quarterback that’s great overperforming
on a rookie deal so you can pay other
people and win a Super Bowl or or you
know you only other win a Super Bowl by
being a Hall of Famer but I get it
you’re nothing without a quarterback so
you want to believe so badly that you’re
the guy that can make bone Knicks into
greatness except for the fact that all
of us watch Bon Knicks and none of us
ever said oh that’s a first round
trapping um this is from let’s see d
prime time I’m sorry I have no skin in
the game with Adam Burke’s Guardians
that you’ve hostile taken over for a
month but due to your ill-advised hate
of all things Cowboys I hope you dead
heat your winds bed I Will Not Dead Heat
cuz I’m at Circa so I don’t Dead Heat
I’m just worried about the people that
are dead heating
elsewhere I’ve got all the just another
example that he a prime time you’re in a
head heads up bet with Gil why why you
got to Gil Del lose money he’s just
playing around no
he’s we love you man and then Jason
Sparty KY I think this opinion needs to
be stated he said God I can’t wait till
the draft is over some people feel that
way oh yeah by the way I started the
show by saying I was like I need this
draft to happen cuz we got to stop
making bets I mean I feel like you and I
at some point kind of apologize every
year but like sorry we love it we love
betting it so we talk about it a lot we
love it completely understand though if
you feel that way will Hill joins us I’m
sure he’s not going to talk about the
draft at all he comes to his courtesy
the progressive guest line uh the name
of his podcast should have been more
what’s happening will
I need this draft to happen I need to
happen right away because I’m like you
every time I hear something this could
happen that could happen I back it up
with a bet and that’s a very dangerous
cycle to uh to jump into you end up with
uh with more bets than you wanted I told
myself I wasn’t going to do it this year
but I look at my accounts and yeah let’s
uh let’s let’s get this draft to happen
let’s hopefully hit some of these will
is that Blazer a velour or velvet or is
it kind of Sheen what’s happening there
yeah yes it is wow all the above I all
the above yeah what it was uh okay so
let’s talk about this first pick Caleb
second pick I think you’re on I think
you’re on board that you think it’s
Jaden Daniels to Washington then for
God’s sakes
what um I’ll go a little boring I’ll go
chalk I’ll say me Go’s third Harrison
fourth and then alt fifth give me alt
fifth baby does do any of us know I mean
it’s all just it’s it’s a lot of guess
work it’s I don’t know it’s the draft
was so much better to years ago now it’s
just everyone’s tight lipped it’s I
don’t know if it’s because that the
Colts Lions players got in trouble the
Memo’s out hey we want to make this a
compelling TV event we don’t want any
sort of mix up with the gambling I don’t
know why stuff hasn’t leaked but I just
you know I text with people that usually
have information and you usually have
good stuff and beat the draft they’re
like nothing this year can’t find
anything I listen to MEAP pod you guys
you know did a great job but it’s just
it’s harder so like I said we joke about
you know betting too much stuff and
chasing the information just have fun
with it um you know realize this is a
little bit of a crapshoot and just uh
you know try to enjoy the night it is a
fun night and hopefully we can uh we can
win some money there is one bet I added
that I like oh I knew he would get to it
what do you got R Rams 25 to1 to draft a
quarterback now if you have uh small
children some they’re going to witness
something they haven’t in their lifetime
that is the Rams having a first round
pick for the first time since
2016 look Stafford’s going to be 37 by
Year’s End the best time to get a
quarterback is when you don’t need one
you don’t have to over pay you don’t
have to overdraft you can just kind of
do it as a as a little bit of a luxury
item so maybe Stafford plays one more
year remember theyve been whispers about
his retirement last year maybe he plays
one more year and you got a year to just
sit groom him go with the Jordan love
Mahomes thing where he sits for a year
uh and they pick somebody maybe I think
they have the 19th pick so 25 to1 do I
think it’s gonna happen maybe I don’t
know I think it’s worth a shot I do
think they’ll pick a quarterback and
they have 19 they have 51 so maybe they
take 151 but I do think MC Bay has his
eye on look Donald retired um Stafford’s
probably not far be kind I do think they
have their eye on the next quarterback
he likes quarterbacks he’s an offensive
coach so at 25 to1 to pick a quarterback
I don’t think that’s terrible I like
that I’m not sure what part I liked Mo
most about that was you for a minute
talking about how it’s like it’s not as
fun this year uh damning the MEAP pod
with faint praise because we gave it a
go you’re like yeah it was good but you
know the draft is so tough and then
you’re like 25 to one on the Rams got
drafted quarterback oh and I also like
the Nugget about the Rams not having a
first round pick since 2016 that’s
amazing right I mean they traded up for
golf then they traded to get get rid of
golf and get Stafford they traded for r
i mean they haven’t it’s a decade
without a pick that’s got to be some
sort of a record but yeah I I wonder if
they look at it and kind of hey last
year was a good year but this is a
little bit of not a gap year but we can
compete this year and still be set next
year where I don’t know like I said the
best time when you need a quarterback
you end up overpaying overdrafting you
you’re desperate when you’re not
desperate you can just kind of you you
can kind of pick one up along the way I
think that’s the best time to get one
yeah it’s certainly a modern day record
the Rams having gone so long without a
first- round pick but if you go back in
the uh the annals of History George
Allen was a coach who made a career out
of trading first round picks for
veterans so there were there were guys
like that who just decided this is
terrible I want kids I want veterans um
all right let me just ask you a series
of questions here real quick and we’ll
get to your thoughts on basketball one
will the Jets draft Brock Bowers
10th I’ll say no I’ll say they go
offensive line but not not convinced but
I’ll say no I just think you need to
protect Rogers like if Rogers gets hurt
everybody in that organization gets
fired
that that experiment never got off the
ground last year you have to protect
them you have to give everybody a chance
and and they brought in offensive
lineman but their older players guys
that are inur PR so I’ll say they go
offensive lines what do the Falcons end
up doing at eight it was long thought to
be Dallas Turner now not so
much I’ll go Murphy the defensive
lineman from Texas wow how many
quarterbacks will ultimately be drafted
in the first round 11 no I’ll go
six if they could they would 11 uh and
then what team botches this
draft it’s a great question what team
botches the
draft I’ll say whoever picks McCarthy
wow okay I like that answer I like I
like that you went for the long-term
answer and not the next day armchair
quarterbacking winners and losers column
pick uh that what you said reminds me
because look none of us know you know
who who’s going to be good out of these
players we think we know we we you know
we have opinions but the narrative are
important keep an eye on the narratives
because I remember last year Philly
their win total was 10 and a half before
the draft then the draft happened and it
was widely uh believe that they had a
great draft they drafted Carter they
drafted the other kid from Georgia and
eventually that win total tick tick tick
up to 11 and a half so 10 and a half up
to 11 and a half it fell right in the
middle at 11 so keep an eye on hey
everyone loves this team’s draft whether
you like it or not that just banked that
information in terms of hey season win
total futures um that that can’t move
draft doesn’t move a ton of numbers but
if loves somebody’s draft just keep that
in mind for for season win totals things
like that yeah and again with the
exception of what what I just asked will
about and he came up with the JJ mccarth
the answer which is a long-term uh
thought but I sort of goated him into
that answer what we do here is not
Talent evaluation we’re just trying to
win bets in a draft I hope most because
there’s inevitably going to be some
segment of the audience that’s going to
be like oh you said this guy was going
to not we’re not talking about whether
they’re good or not I have no idea if
Jaden Daniel is going to be good or not
I don’t but I know they should pick him
too uh look last year CJ Stroud was a
good player and I know people that bet
him first overall pick and they don’t
they don’t get paid on that bet even
though he turned out to be really
good I hate you uh okay NBA or baseball
what have you bet or both uh we’ll go
NBA I leid A1 55 on the Celtics to sweep
the heat I don’t see how the Heat win a
game I don’t see how they come within 10
points they just cannot score the
Celtics have good Defenders everywhere
the the heat not just without Butler but
without Roser I mean you’re talking
about hakz and love and hero I know the
Celtics play with their food and get a
little sloppy uh look it’s minus 155 now
the Celtics are going to win game three
by 15 20 points probably more and this
Line’s going to be minus 230 they’re
going to be like an eight nineo favorite
in game three and as long as they win
game three They’re Up 3 0 Miami is gon
to go one two3 Cancun I they’re not
gonna just rise up and win game four and
try to extend the series they know it’s
over I think this is going to be over
very quickly so I’m okay laying the
dollar 55 on the sweep on tomorrow I
like Cleveland Orlando under again to me
that I mean they keep tiing it down they
keep adjusting it but I don’t know that
they’re adjusting it enough I mean this
is early 2000s basketball it’s ugly it
reminds me of those was the Pacers
piston series the early 2000 maybe it’s
not that bad but I I don’t see the
winner getting 100 points in any of
these games it’s just 90s 80s so 198 and
a half I think is the under I played the
under the first two games I’ll go back
to the well here with the under Orlando
has a lot of talent none of that Talent
seems to include putting the ball
through the hoop that’s right which
seems to be the object of the game I’m
told yeah the Jimmy Butler thing it
sucks that we got robbed of at least
being able to see that through yeah we
would have had a great one through 16 if
we had Butler we had Zion it’ be very
balanced those two hurt it did it did
definitely hurt uh will always a
pleasure should have met more the name
of the podcast who’s your latest guest
uh Fred seagull Freez and cold takes oh
Freez and cold takes ask him about uh
Kelly bidin uh freezing cold takes did
you ask him oh I didn’t know to ask oh
you I’m sorry but Chris Singleton’s
going to be better than kawh Leonard
that was Kelly thank you will see you
NAD NFL in golf
next a numbers game on Vin the sports
betting Network hey don’t miss out on
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that’s code vs n Only on DraftKings the
crown is yours we get tweets at beating
the book uh this is from Nash last name
Nash he says uh I don’t know what’s more
exclusive in 20124 getting information
on NFL team’s draft board or finding a
top-notch sushi place in Vegas Sam
Ginsburg when’s Jerry Jones going to
Tweet out the picture of their draft
board like come on that we were waiting
on that that will happen during the
first round by the way I probably should
have I probably should have uh
stipulated that
I that that rumor about there being you
know Lombardi saying he’s got the Intel
six quarterbacks are going in the first
round I’m still under four and a half
and I’m I’m not changing that I’m just
sticking on that bet I’m not uh betting
accordingly uh Sam to to that news Sam
Ginsburg I was also thinking about
George Allen trading all the draft picks
to get veteran players anytime I hear a
reference to George Allen I’m reminded
of the Jack Ken Cook quote as skin team
owner we gave George an unlimited budget
and he exceeded
it the late great Jack C cook he always
had great lines when they won their
first Super Bowl he goes okay first
thing out of his mouth he goes do we get
to keep this trophy first thing uh Larry
fresh oh he’s uh Imagining the uh
conversation I just had with Will Gil is
that a v is that velvet or velour will
you know what they call a guy that pays
that much attention to his clothes right
Gil an adult that conversation did not
exactly happen that way uh ladies and
gentlemen again we apologize to Sparty
KY Jason who uh is sick of is sick and
tired of talking about the draft but CA
NAD is here to talk golf with us but yes
we will ask him about his NFL draft bets
as well uh he comes to us courtesy of
course of the progressive guest line ca
for those who don’t know on Twitter caad
SAA Neja uh Neja a pardon me uh host and
analyst for Monumental Sports Network in
DC Sportsline what’s happening see you
what’s going on fellas uh you know
listen I I come here armed and prepared
for Zurich picks but I mean I know it’s
kind of like a down week in golf so
we’ve got that but I love that we’ve got
the NFL draft coming up tomorrow 24
hours that’s amazing you are not allowed
to be on the show today without having
NFL draft bets I think that’s the rule
uh first first though Zur classic bets
um unlike some other golf betters you
I’m looking at the guy next to me yeah
took the week off all you see it guy
over here um this is a different format
but that did not deter you from making
bets first explain the format
yeah the format is a team format so
you’ve got 160 players which sounds like
a lot right but it’s 80 teams it it’s
you know pairs which I think can be
exciting for some people I think the
problem is that the way the setup is and
and the the lack of like Big Time
Players I think that’s part of the
reason why you don’t see a lot of
fanfare for this but you’ve got teams 80
teams here and you’ve got top 33 in ties
that make the cut so the format in terms
of the structure Thursday Friday
Saturday Sunday I think this is the
important part so it’s best ball for day
one for Thursday which means let’s say
Xander shof Lake can’t lay their a pair
each of them play their ball if one gets
a birdie the other gets a par birdie is
going to be their score on that hole so
that’s what best ball is then on Friday
it goes to alternate shot where Xander
hits hits it off the tea Canley hits the
approach Xander if they’re on the green
hits the Putt and so on and so forth
you’re alternating that’s going to be
sort of the harder setup where you you’d
like to have two really good players in
that type of setup and then it goes back
to beste ball and then alternate shot
Saturday and Sunday so that’s the format
of it we’ve got some Heavy Hitters at
the top obviously with sha and Lane
zator and theala and Roy mroy in this
tournament which is pretty cool and
Shane Lowry and then it gets to a lot of
like you know lesser names once you get
past morawa and kyama shaay just daring
his wife to give birth just daring her
at this point he’s like I’m playing all
this stuff Sheffer well
you’re I’m sorry you said I said shley
my bad uh Sheffer sitting this one out
thankfully yeah exactly shlay and Klay
are the short shots here who did you bet
out right though I went with a couple
longer shots like listen this isn’t
going to be a card that that’s going to
be as full as a normal card because
there’s just so much variance and I
think that’s really illustrated by Davis
Riley and Nick Hardy winning last year
like two guys who I guess you could make
the argument were kind of good course
fits I think they were round 80 to one
last year um but long story short they
weren’t even coming in with good form so
it was a huge surprise granted favorites
do tend to win this tournament as well
but I went with one of the favorites
they were plus 1,000 now they’re kind of
down in the plus 850 range plus 700
depending on where you look will alot
Tores to hit the G I mean SI theala is
playing better than most players on the
PGA tour including most of the players
that are in this tournament and will
zator he’s been a little up and down I
was a little discouraged by his off the
tea play and his putting over the last
few tournaments but overall he’s a great
he’s a great player obviously he’s great
on approach I think these two players
complement each other really well we
know siah can get hot everywhere
including off the tea and with the
Putter and that’s kind of where will
zotor has at least been a little shaky
so I think this is it by the way they’re
good friends too so I think this is
going to be like two guys walking the
course for 4 days that are going to be
very comfortable with each other
hopefully four days as opposed to two uh
I’ve got one other one here uh Cory
Connors and Taylor pendrith Taylor
pendrith is one of those guys that
almost put him in the Davis Riley Nick
Hardy category as a guy that’s kind of
coming in with okay form but I’m
starting to see some flashes and again I
put him in that other mold because he
just hasn’t been good for about a year
he missed a ton of cuts but he’s made
two of his three Cuts he was good last
week at corales and Cory Connors I think
compliments him very well Taylor
pendrith really good off the team really
good putter Cory Conor is more of the
ball striking variety that can be a
little shaky with the putter but if
these guys get hot I think plus 2800 is
a pretty good number given that this
field only has four or five prolific
Pairs and you added a tournament three
ball as well yeah I mentioned Mora and
kyama I like them at plus 150 you can
get this pretty much everywhere over the
Hoy guard brothers that’s Nikolai and
Rasmus who haven’t been very good lately
and hogi and mcne hogi and mcne actually
have been good lately their metrics look
really good overall over the last four
or five tournaments I think the the
issue I have here with them is I don’t
think they have the Firepower that kidam
and morawa have especially considering
how well morawa has played particularly
with the Putter and with the ball
striking really more off the tea there
but again I’m getting plus 150 here in
this three ball it’s not like it’s a
minus 110 number so I think I’m getting
the better pair with the better
Firepower with at least nearly if not
better form than hogi and mcne I don’t
think the Hoy guards are really going to
be in this one too much so give me more
of cow and kyama Xander shley just
called he’s like my wife’s pregnant
twice it’s twice it’s twice I’ve done
that now all right and if you thought
team golf would prevent CIA from doing
first round leaders oh you were mistaken
is bread and butter what do you got here
uh first round leaders we know this is
an exact science every week so of course
it’s even more exact of a science when
you’ve got pairs involved please read
the sarcasm here uh we’re just
sprinkling here okay Xander schafle and
Patrick Canley I really don’t want to
take them plus 400 in the outright
Market but I will dabble on them in plus
12200 in the in the first round keep in
mind again this is best ball so I’m
getting their best efforts on each hole
plus 1200 uh first round leader and then
I’ll give you two more Cory Conor Taylor
pendrith I don’t need to belber the
point on them plus 3500 I like that
number and then as a long shot CT pan
and Kevin Yu Kevin U does Flash in first
round CT pan has been good with the ball
striking lately I think these guys are
good for 18 certainly not good for 72
but 50 to one I’m willing to speculate
on those two all right sea you must pay
the toll now and talk NFL draft with us
Caleb Williams goes first to Chicago
you’re in DC are they taking J Daniels
at number two they are taking Jaden
Daniels at number two I was shocked
about a month month and a half ago Gil
when I was on this show it was Drake May
that was the favorite and Jaden Daniels
was like plus 130 or plus 140 and that’s
when I jumped on that one because and I
don’t bet the draft super hard don’t get
me wrong but I I was really shocked by
that and the tables turned pretty
quickly I think Jaden Daniels is going
to be the guy everything I’m hearing uh
points to jayen Daniels I know we kind
of had that that little issue with the
top golf thing which honestly when I say
it out loud sounds just completely
ridiculous uh in all senses of that word
the long and short of it is I do think
Jaden Daniels is the guy I personally
love Jaden Daniels and I’ve said this on
this show before too I think Jaden
Daniels could be or is better than Caleb
Williams so again I might out on an
island there that’s fine I think there’s
a lot of overrated prospects in this
draft I think janen Daniels as long as
he can stay healthy is one of the dudes
and I expect him to go two to the
Washington commanders I like it number
three then what do you think do you have
any idea what happens at three what is
your Instinct at this point yeah this is
a really good question I think New
England ends up going with a quarterback
here I could see them trading down
trading out of this pick as well but I
think they end up drafting a quarterback
and I think it’s probably going to be
Drake May here so JJ McCarthy getting a
lot of buzz but I I don’t I think it’s
too high for JJ did you make any bets
here CA at all did you make any bets in
the NFL draft Yeah on jayen Daniels only
the only other one that I was really
tempted to play was and I think you’re
on the other side of this was what what
was your quarterback bet because I think
we could see a another quarterback go
after Drake May after JJ McCarthy in the
first round I think we could see I think
people are sleeping on Michael penck Jr
personally so it wouldn’t shock me if he
goes in the first round yeah I did under
four and a half because I just I just
thought the number got way too high not
to play like I wasn’t going to get
involved I wasn’t going to get involved
in number two either but then when Jaden
Daniels number crashed I was like okay
I’m forced to bet it’s my obligation um
okay I look forward to thank you for
that Jaden Daniels confirmation there as
well you believe if if you do think it’s
Michael pennick though where do you
believe he ends up do you think the
Raiders make the make the pick on him at
13 really 13 no but I do I could see the
Raiders maybe trading back like I do
think we’re going to see some trading
down in this situation or a team trading
up from the second round to late first
round so you can carry that fifth year
option so don’t be surprised if you get
a team early second round trading late
trading into the late first round yeah I
think that’s how it’s going to go with
backs I think we’re going to get
McCarthy being the fourth or Drake May
being the fourth whichever way that
panss out and then the Nicks penck will
there be a fifth it’s going to come late
in that first round where somebody’s
either going to trade in or whatever
yeah um see you always great good luck
with the golf good luck with the draft
we appreciate it man thank you love love
being on the show see you guys soon see
you in the jot everybody Jason we Garten
on the other side numbers game be in the
sports betting Network
