Everything You Need to Know for the Texas Children’s Houston Open! | PGA Tour Betting Breakdown

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0:00 Intro
0:15 RIP Match Play
4:00 Valspar Recap
9:04 The Houston Open Field
9:45 Agronomy
13:14 Memorial Park Golf Course
18:45 Key Stats to Consider
23:20 Get a full-year sub for $5
26:00 Building the Model
44:00 Bets to Win The Houston Open
51:19 Long Shots

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Everyone welcome back iny did did you see that sorry I I ran right over your intro I I couldn’t find the right video because we switch streamyards here so it says Valero Texas open DFS preview that’s not we’re doing that’s not we’re doing this is not where

At right State the right State we are uh in Texas we’re in Houston uh for the uh Texas Children’s Houston open this has been uh the Cadence Bank this has been the huet Packard um but that was all swing season we are moving into uh you know what March obviously a March event

Instead of uh instead of where we’ve been in the past which is I think part of the handicapp of discussion here this week and first let’s let’s rest in peace let’s rest in peace match play because we’d be doing match play this week right so Florida’s

Behind us no match play it’s not on schedule I don’t know what’s going on always like just a terrible betting events in my opinion like or at least looking historically for me I’ve got absolutely my ass handed to me years year after year but the fun of like

Filling out a bracket and trying to make it and I love that course and but anyway no no match play uh we’re in Texas still though yeah match play was those horseshoes for me real close um I always would take some long shots on like you know a guy to make the final

Four and every year I seem to have you know I take like two or three guys at Big prices uh to to make the final four they’d get to the final eight I’d never hedge and then they’d lose to one of the top golfers I think I had like hogi one

Year at like 90 to one or something to win it and you know a really good price so I never yeah I never did cash big I didn’t love I don’t love match play outside of Ridder cup stuff obviously that’s great but it was fun to fill out

The bracket you know you guys that love DFS it’s a really fun you know kind of thought exercise whatever uh yeah you know Strate strategizing trying to figure out how to how to maximize your lineups to make sure you’re not overlapping too much in the same quadrants regions so I

Did love filling up the bracket yes I never did very well um shout out to link Calhoun who won our we did a bracket challenge last year on the site uh he was the last winner of that yeah this is a promotion it’s funny link Calhoun from

Houston he just sent me pictures he went to this event uh like in 2020 this was like the first event that they let people come to like after they they started opening things up after Co a little but not it was like a very limited crowd so there’s pictures of him

That are basically like shots from TV where it’s you know the player is in the foreground and then it’s like him and his wife with masks on way in the background so mask with a with a vape pen underneath the mask yeah and obviously it was a it was a swing season

Event so this is H this is the call up to the bigs you’re now a master’s leadup event we had some Texas guys that are playing um not a bad field it’s gonna be we said this the really tough to tell what next week’s going to bring but the

Last week and this week it’s going to be a handful of decent top golfers and then I guess that leads us into malady season guy hasn’t won on tour for like a decade he’s never really in the mix all that much he’s had a decent spring here and

There but that was uh that was not a name we discussed last week did not make the show uh it was like a weird like the leader board especially in the weekend too and I like Brandon Todd fell off but it was like team putt I I made the

Reference yesterday like a bunch of all the good Putters basically showed up like McKenzie Hughes is up there uh you obviously M like Mady that’s you know kind of the calling card of his game so yeah cool to see I mean obviously you know when a mule on the back half comes

In and and wins that’s such a great selling point and as someone who is on the PGA tour like Players Board you know he took the opportunity in his as post presser to really kind of drive home the fact that like this is the magic that

You get with full field events this is what you wouldn’t get in you know limited Field small field events you wouldn’t have any of this that’s really been the entire story outside of the back-to-back weeks of Scotty for the entirety of the 2024 season it’s been massive long shots and having some

Of these guys like Mady who’s been a just a grinder for a decade get home which is you know really cool stuff so I I do think that that is a cool selling point for the tour moving forward to be like hey look this stuff doesn’t happen

Uh without these these guys having 144 man fields or 154 man Fields so cool to see good for him and you know again like he’s a professional golfer he hasn’t been winning he’s making money he has his tour card year-over-year like as this is not like a feel bad for these

Guys but like there are expenses that mount up for these guys that aren’t making more than like 60 70% of their Cuts now again they’re making more than most people uh you know the average income uh but to to see them be able to you know get a nice win and cash that

For him and his family which is I thought was pretty cool to see yeah I’m not sure he’s actually ever played in the Masters I don’t think so’s not his previous win was a Sanderson and that’s back when winning a swing season event did not get you in no he’s this

Will be that’s that’s exciting I I thought they’d said that I had to double check CU it’s like well he won before but the swing season events did not use to you know get you much of anything so he’s he’s got a chicken trophy now he has a paintbrush trophy two weirdest

Trophies maybe outside of some of the stuff you get on the DP tour um yeah super you know good for him obviously and we we said that too with some of these guys you know we had the two weeks of Scotty but if you go back to you know

The beginning of the Season there we had these weeks and weeks and weeks where it’s like oh my God 150 to1 oh my God 110 to1 oh 80 120 you know all these huge numbers all those guys are in the Masters it’s crazy when you look at like

The winners if you go look at the Masters odds right now the winners from this year it’s like you know Scotty and one other guy anywhere near the top and obviously they’d be in an owgr or anything else or obviously Scotty you know lifetime lifetime exception he does have a coat

Um but then all the other guys are like 150 or better to win The Masters it’s like these are the guys that have won on tour like I’m tempted to take some of these nasty prices on guys that have a little bit of win Equity like why would

I why would I add spe at like you know 15 to one when I can have somebody like this that’s one I’m not saying we’re adding Peter malady 500 to one doing the master there there’s some guys in that 100 to1 range that uh definitely are are interesting as we’re starting to get

That is the the beauty of uh you know these Majors you know I can’t sit and make a bet for H you know like Valero right now you know that Market’s not open that Field’s not even really you know finalized obviously till Friday but I can make a

Bet on the Masters you know that that’s a market that’s up constantly so maybe something we’ll we’ll touch on a little next week as we uh are one week closer and we’re sitting there with you know everyone but the the final win if it is somebody who’s not in the field and

Possibly some guys who end up on the right side of the you know the top 50 owgr kind of rankings to get into the Master’s field um that said let’s spin to Houston yeah tickets to be punched with a win here too so uh you know

That’s how mol molti is in and you can see who else can take home someone can knock down Scotty this week or or take home uh Valero next week you can get yourself in there as well I’m excited for the Masters to kind of get the rest

Of the markets out there too the like top debut to Market I think is going to be very interesting you have multiple uh you know guys making their debut that are 30 or shorter on the odds board mostly it’s Windam Clark uh and uh lud Vic Goldberg who are guys we would

Expect to profile pretty well here that are fairly short playing some good golf and they’ve never been here and it’s the place probably I think historically with the most course history uh in terms of you know pulling forward so yeah uh Texas Children’s Houston open good field Memorial Park Memorial

Park at Memorial Park y we are at Memorial Park goodful it is a lot decent uh what do we have six of the top 30 of the official World Golf Ranking is where you are now uh obviously led by Scotty Scotty uh also holds the course record

Here after dropping a 62 in round two back in 2021 the start of the 2022 season so there’s that uh considering all that’s going on in the world Scotty right now sub three on the outright board which is very very interesting you know it’s again another

This kind of where we’re at right it’s a Scotty or not Scotty uh discussion but uh a very challenging course it’s long uh from a par 70 standpoint to play like 7,400 or so from the tips the again I touched on at the top here quickly you know we just we saw going

Back to the Masters we had the Masters in November uh in covid we saw how different it played versus it being you know in the spring we’re going to have that here and they’ve done a few different things here we obviously have different grass uh we are kind of like

Poetry of greens again instead of it being like just a Bermuda all the way around we’re still not there yet uh and we have like an attempt it seems like to make it a little bit easier player friendly uh one and a quarter inch Ry grass rough which it’s pretty forgiving

I mean most M I think make yeah it’s going to make a decent difference because this was nasty penal thick uh Bermuda rough when it was played in the fall and obviously FY grabby you know these courses that are in these areas they get so damn hot in the summer you

Know they have to do things different Aron the the Agronomy agronomic I’m just making up words now that’s I think I made up word agronomically that’s agronomically sounds way better that sounds like a pretty good I think it’s probably right yeah they you know they

Do have to do things it’s like what we talked about with uh moving the players from May to March that’s a small move this is you know this is fall to Spring which you’re getting a different life cycle and see warm season grasses are different than than cool season grasses

But still very very much going to play differently than when they had this in the fall and I think you know obviously a big part of that it’s going to be the Ry grass rough a lot easier to I know when you’re when you’re hitting out a

Rough and it’s tall or it’s thick or it’s you know certain types of grasses they’ll grab your ball sometimes it’s just hard to get a lot of Spin and as we talk about this course you know we’re going to mention there’s no bunkers hardly there’s no water there’s not a

Lot of defenses like that a big defense other than the Texas winds is going to be these greens which are hard to carry hard to catch hard to stay on you know they’re fast they’re bouncy they’re described as bouncy by some of the players so when you’re not able to you

Know check your ball back out of the rough because you can’t get the right spin on it out of that Bermuda it makes it that much more hard and I wonder that you know some of the accuracy off the tea is going to matter less because of

This easier rough and you’re going to be able to you know find some of these tough greens it’s still not going to be easy but easier in in relation to what we’ve seen in the past so it’s probably going to be a little lower scoring than

You know what we’ve seen yeah last time we were here was uh the in Fall of 2022 the uh Cadence Bank Houston open uh and feno took it down at 16 under uh but you basically like he was and strokes ahead of like the guys at tied for T9 uh kind

Of you know a bunch of guys there so you he kind of ran away with it a little bit you know LED comfortably going into the weekend and just kind of solidify that going in it’s an interesting Le a board because when you look at it is definitely a driver heavy griping and

Ripet style course but you do find some decent positional accuracy guys in the mix in the top 10 as well and you mentioned maybe that’s a little different because it was something where you wanted to avoid you need to get down there and bang it down there but you

Wanted to avoid the the rough because of the nature spongy nature of the Bermuda because you know Alex norrin uh Aon Ry guy you know Joel Damon’s played well here in the past go not necessarily guys that we would profile as bombers they were rewarded

For their ability to kind of keep it in the short stuff so interested to see how that changes because right now for me it’s very much a grip and a ripic course quick quick aside have you gotten anywhere with uh with uh I can’t think

Of the name of the Netflix golf show it is very much escap full swing full swing yeah I’m on episode two I was gonna say I won’t spoil it for you but man the a dog on Joel yeah there there’s an episode where it’s it’s heavy heavily Joel featured

And I kind of feel bad for the guy after it was a lot of fun on the first season so I I’ve gotten stuck there too as I’ve had some other responsibilities haven’t been able to watch as much TV also bought a book that I kind of bought up

Some of my time but I’m gonna try to get back to that and watch some of those uh watch some of those episodes later this week I like to I like to try to take the golf one in at least because I do like I

Do like what they do it is funny how they if you watch enough Golf and you pay attention you’re like well that’s not really how it is like they’re just they’re kind of they’re kind of building this up a little more than it is and it’s silly but it’s still such a fun

Show but I like it I know for us right it’s not we’re like you know we’re the golf hardos but my wife likes to watch it and wants to watch it so why I’m like yeah my wife likes it too because I can’t watch it because she falls asleep

So damn early every night so like that’s why we’re still on episode two we’ll watch 15 minutes at a time and yeah it’s just yeah I don’t I don’t want this I don’t want this to devolve into like Andy drugged his wife but I’m looking into ways to sneak caffeine into her

Like food can can we get you to stay till like 9:30 that’d be great so that’s my goal for uh Wednesday just to watch an episode or two after I do the Deep dive tomorrow tonight I will focus more on building out some more models for

This week a couple more coar notes for Memorial Park Golf Course before we head into some of the key stats that we’re going to need for the winners here long par 70 like you said it is 7,400 yards which is not that long but it is when

It’s a 70 like that is considered very long as far as you know yards per H or yards relative to par whatever you want to put it as um like you said the oversea the dry grass Fairways the rough firm bouncy greens I mentioned very much

Lack of bunkers lack of w water hazards going to be a lot different than what we saw in Florida the contoured greens the bouncy greens the fast greens you’re going to have some uh some windy conditions I haven’t checked too deep into the weather and we’ve seen and um

Not predictive from two or three things I’ve read including Ron’s preview uh course history not terribly predictive probably going to be even less so considering they’re moving it from uh a fall event to a spring event H there’s going to be a bunch of guys who just

Didn’t play in the fall event that are going to be you know featured now because they’re going to have to play it as a as a master’s leadup kind of thing and we we’re going to see a stronger field than normal tough course in general we’ll see if that changes with

Some more top players here it’s still going to be you know tougher than average but I think Ron Haden is the sixth toughest course on tour on average and a good closing stretch another thing that uh you if you’re a member and you get access to all the premium written

Content Rond does a good job of highlighting some of this but it’s not just like the snake pit and the bear trepp like it’s 15 to the end they’re all tough it is there is some you know there’s some water on 16 and 17 there’s

A nasty dog leg on a a long par for to closes out it’s a it’s a it’s a cool closing stretch so as as we said it might play a little softer we might have some lower scores it’s still a good closing series of holes which I like

Yeah because um you know just think about the drama we had at the Players you know it’s it’s fun to it’s fun to have good challenging risk reward holes at the end of a tournament especially when there’s a couple because you know on the off chance you get [ __ ] four

Topend I mean who who’s the fourth I’m trying to oh Xander you know so three three very recent major winners and uh an Olympic gold medalist will give something give him something top the world I mean he’s a he’s a top golfer league if you can have that it’s such a

Perfect storm of man how good how good do we have it it’s the LeBron meme where he’s looking up like can’t believe this is my life getting to watch these guys all hitting the S grass 17 here so hopefully uh you know the pomping circumstance probably a little less in

Houston but we can hope we can hope yeah I mean probably different than you know cam young Peter Mady and McKenzie Hughes coming down the stretch uh so you know we we had basketball had the tournament was on it was fine um all right key stats let’s kind of tune in on some

Stats we think that can win this week some stats we’re gonna want to use for modeling um just maybe back in fourth off the top distance has been a major advantage th% you think you think it’s going to be I’ve seen some people say maybe less so but back to my theory

About the rough being less penal I think these guys who hit at 340 and maybe spray a little are going to have even more luck because it might not matter if they’re a little off the Fairway yeah I would love to hear the case for less than uh you know it being

Less important this week because like you said I feel like it’s been all over the leaderboard here in the three years we’ve been to Memorial Park uh again there’s guys been mixed in but those guys I think are less likely because there’s less of a you know missed

Fairway penalty at this point with you know having the ride Gras be so short and rough yeah I mean it is a th% a tiebreaker a priority um you’re you’re gaining Strokes off the T or t to green and Driver heavy courses like this is a

You know there’s no Force layups uh They removed they did a redesign actually kka led the redesign in 2019 ironically uh They removed a bunch of like the the bunkering too like there’s just not a lot of not a lot of penalty like it’s one of those courses where they say

Everything’s right in front of you like it’s it’s not a place where there not a ton of dog legs or things like that and even those some of them you can carry so yeah off the tea th% uh mattering this week uh some of the redesigned stuff to

Shaved runoffs around the green so they took away some of like the rough aprons uh you do have like I don’t know say Memorial Park is like Augusta but I think it’s a good Augusta Prep because that is obviously a calling card of what

We see um in a couple of weeks and you know scrambling from the short grass is something that I think is going to matter a ton this week as well so those are a couple of the key ones yeah those recessed um runoffs that aren’t Tall Grass yeah you you can almost just

Picture some of these shots from Augusta over the years where the guys are you know just off the green standing three feet below it and having to pitch having to you know really key in on their short game that’s been a you know that’s been a predictive

Stat here as far as you know when you look at leaderboards you do see a lot of guys that have had a lot of luck have gained a lot of Strokes around the green I don’t think that changes just because of what we’ve done with some of these

Shaved runoff areas it’s still going to matter because it’s it is hard to hold these screens and you know the I hate to say it but like after you get past the top names it’s not a great field so there’s going to be you know it’s not

Going to be morawa and Z throwing darts at these holes there’s going to be a bunch of guys that just you know hey I’m a I’m a really good golfer whip our asses but I’m not uh you know I’m not Scotty sheffler with my irons I’m gonna

Miss a bunch of greens and these guys are gonna need to you know they’re going to need to scramble they’re going to need their around the green Acumen to to make it happen here um what else did I have yeah around the green was important obviously approach

Every week um I don’t know what to do with the greens they’re fast and there you know there’s some undulation some tearing not sure if I you know putting’s important like you got to make your putts look what happens when Scotty you know suddenly became a slightly above average putter oh he won

By five Strokes you know it does matter go look at what happened to JT when he puted 38 times that round you know the rest of the round kind of doesn’t matter so putting is always important but I’m not so sure how to how to include it in modeling or as a key

Stat I have some thought fast maybe on Fast screens you know because yeah that is something they’re actually pretty big greens uh there is like you said the the kind of the contouring quadrant uh situation here where like yeah it’s a big green but if you’re in the wrong

Spot in the green all of a sudden you have a very challenging putt on these you know very fast poetry of greens as well so three putt avoidance maybe um you know Bogies or something like like there’s I think those are interesting ways to kind of capture scoring SL putting and well so

Yeah we can we do that when we uh build some build some a build some uh some stuff out here let’s see what we got uh let’s do this let’s talk about too how people can get uh subscription over to bat Spurs golf for super duper cheap through our friends over at Vivid

Picks this deal is changing uh in the coming months so take advantage of it now also pricing in general at bsps golf going up as soon as that jacket goes on Scotty or whoever it ends up being uh prices are going up here for every subscription of betsports golf now we’ve

Held off on doing this to ensure that we could grandfather in any people that jumped in before we’ve done this so this can still apply to you you could still get in on what I guess we should call early bird pricing uh and taking hold

That price for life for as long as you stay on renewal of your subscription you will hold the price that you get for weekly for monthly for an annual subscription that will change again moving forward right now you can get access to it for super cheap uh through

Our friends over at Vivid pic uh it is a DFS pium site some of the other ones you’re familiar with out there if you want to just you know look at different ways to build basically DFS pick and parlays download the Vivid pick app today use promo code bsps golf uh and

You will with just a $5 deposit and play get access to everything at bet Spurs golf for the year for just that $ five dollar no strings attached no hidden fees if you like these games they will first deposit match up to 250 which is

Huge it’s the best in the industry so if you like to play over there uh take advantage of that as well you might be in a state that doesn’t have vivid picks just DM us on Twitter at bsur golf we’ll get you a promo code to take advantage

Of a discounted month or an annual subscription this is obviously a affiliate deal we can’t get you a $5 subscription but we can obviously get uh pretty competitive and let you get uh a taste dip your feet in dip your toes in for a month and uh see if it’s something

That makes sense and again you can lock in that price for a month for the rest of Eternity if you would like uh and I think you want to do that because we have the best modeling tool in the space that’s going to continue to get better

We got lots of cool things continuing to happen on the back ends uh hopefully have some cool t tournament pages and player Pages here in the near future we’re hoping for austa but we’ll see I know a lot of work’s going on in the back end but that those things are

Coming so you don’t have to leave the site all your golf research can be done on bsports golf yeah we did just uh fully design the player Pages it is in the hands to the developers like Ryan said we we spent money on making sure the grandfathering would work um spent

Development time to make sure we can offer those prices so prices will never be this low again that is the thing they’re going up after the Masters I can’t I can’t convince uh the powers to be to keep them this slow I’m sorry such as life but yes let’s uh let’s start

Building a model on said Rabbit Hole Let’s uh let’s look so we got the Texas Children Houston open field up we’re looking at stats from the last 12 months all regions all types all courses all rounds last 36 rounds what you have selected here just on the basic screen

But we’re gonna pop around we’ll add a few um stats from certain time frames and certain filters and mash them all together and see if we can come up with something halfway predictive what do you want to start with today Ryan yeah you’re seeing this for the first time

Also if you’re a new subscriber there’s this watch tutorial button I should probably update that uh because we have some new stuff but again you want to get kind of a five minute walkthr of how to do it we’re going to show you lots of things there are a lot of different ways

To chop up this data uh hopefully you can follow along and it makes a ton of sense um some unique features too you can display this uh we’re like looking at rank for these stats right now but you can do average total percentage of rounds gains you can download any of

These things into a CSV and slice and dice and create other models and other whatever you want to do it’s a really cool unique feature as well uh you can look at our experts you want to see the model that I built uh Andy lack from

Inside golf podcast his model is in here uh Matt venzi that ta it in podcast his stuff is in here too you’ll get something from Andy and Ron here shortly as well uh so you want to see what we’re doing we’ll see what stats we’re weighing this week that matter to us you

Can go ahead and and look what we have here as well so maybe start with some recent form I guess 2024 we have a building sample Andy if uh if you would agree in terms of what’s happened so far this year mentioned this a couple weeks

Back but it’s tougher to do it early in the spring but you know looking at those sample sizes that we have now those are decent samples for some of these golfers like yeah we’re looking at 20 plus rounds we’re looking at how have you played since we started golfing um and

You can do what Ryan did there just make sure we have a minimum kind of sussing out some of the guys that hey you you’ve played like six rounds but they were good you’re GNA show up at the top let’s not have that we don’t want small sample

Size outliers affecting this that much so Scotty yeah Scotty’s at the top wiam Clark see I mean this is going to follow the odds fairly closely for the most part but yeah we call it an anchoring stat when we do this sort of thing um just to

Make sure when we go granular we’re not getting some weird stuff so go total Strokes gained over um whole rounds played in 2024 add that to the model we’ll save that for later and then start to figure out should we just add driving distance and we talked about it I don’t see

I don’t see how you can put together something with key stats in a mixed condition model not have it totally agree um you know again I don’t think this is a instance where carry distance would be relevant for us um oh R it’s gonna it’s gonna run out pretty fine

Same thing with Apex or Club head speed it’s not like we’re fighting through the tough you know zoa we’re not fighting through the vermuda anymore it’s it’s not going to matter as much out of this rough if you have that massive Club head speed I don’t think

Yeah I think Apex tight we could talk about it but I think because they’re firm and fast and you are coming like again there’s not like a key proximity range that I think needs to be focused in on but there are a lot of 200 plus again those aren’t necessarily your like

Scoring approach shots right those are kind of going to be like survival uh approach shots for the week but looking last year I mean 20 34% of the approach shots last year last time they played here we from 200 plus so uh you could sell me on

Apex height being mixed in but again that’s subjective for people but I think you make a good point like Club head speed to like get through the thick stuff probably not uh you know mattering at all this year comparatively so but I do think driving distance is something

That we thousand per need to capture uh again some familiar names here and some guys that are again when you have the two best players in the fields also popping in driving distance it’s gonna be really hard to not have uh Scotty and uh and Windam Clark at the top of of a

Model and that makes sense they should they should be at the top of the model this week so driving distance I’m going to click on uh you could sell me on some of the uh some of the other stats from a driving standpoint mattering um and I

Think I want to do that and get a sense of what you think too I don’t mind having because it is going to be driver heavy uh let’s go in here to the condition let’s look at off the off the T Club being driver heavy uh let’s see what kind of sample

We get here last 12 months 16 rounds let’s back it up a little bit see we get maybe 18 round 18 uh months not a ton let’s see if we get strokes gained off the te when we have uh yeah we’re not getting a huge sample I didn’t mess

Around with this but I was thinking about it yeah pretty small sample so maybe noisy not something that I would want to like capture in here when like we’re getting everyone at like 12 12 rounds or so but something to look at maybe confirmation bias if you know you’re

Leaning somewhere but for me not not not something that I want to again that’s why we call the rabbit hole right we went down the rabbit hole looked at it we’re not doing it we’re not adding it no yeah because we’re gonna go back too far for that to be a a relevant

Sample of data so all right uh what else we want to do off the T we did approach I mean I don’t want to get too fancy approach wise Andy like I said I don’t think there’s anything from a like proximity bucket that we want to mess

Around with um you know greens and rag Strokes gained approach what are your thoughts um it’s you know it’s going to be a tougher greens and red tournament or uh course than average I would think yeah again is it with the uh you know with the different Agronomy with the different field

That like down 3% or so versus a tour average event over the the three years in the fall so I’d almost I’d almost rather put some putting or scoring stats like three putt avoidance something along those lines then you know it I I don’t think we should discount approach because it’s

Approach and it matters so much so maybe we just throw basic approach in there don’t get too cute with it this week don’t have to get too you know too granular too too deep in the weeds and the filters there’s a million filters but you don’t have to use them you know

We can just look at good old old fashion you know this is your your Granddaddy’s SG stats just approach put in some put in some around the green we’ll put in some three put avoidance and honestly I think we’d be pretty close at that point yeah I like to do this your thoughts

Let’s uh I’m I got a small sample here of last 20 rounds of approach I’m gonna add this uh Strokes gained approach last 20 and then let’s take a longer View and we’ll just mess around with the weights see who’s just kind of a long-term approach player and who’s uh popping

Recently again your top guys here are you know your top guys in the 50 or similar to your top guys in the 20 so they should be rewarded for that but we’ll just kind of uh slice up how we uh how we wait that so I think for sure I

Do this I do this with like four or five different time frames sometimes on total on greens and regulation on approach to see who’s like what direction are you and obviously you need to realize this too when you’re looking at last 20 rounds and last 50 rounds really consider you’re waiting because you’re

Counting those last 20 rounds twice correct so no know that when you when you put your two weights in for those yep really good point we mentioned around the green being really important this week uh I wouldn’t overfit it with a condition we have the ability here to

Look at scrambling from Short Grass uh which I think matters a ton what are your thoughts here on uh Ron made a good point for round the green proximity on our first look show and I thought that that was really interesting too uh again you could scroll over any of these stats

To get the definition if they are newer stats to you but around the green proximity Is capturing how close the ball is to the hole after being hit onto the putting surface from a point that is 30 yards or less from the edge of the green so I think this does tell an

Interesting story that we’re trying to capture um but again scrambling Short Grass does as well any thoughts there yeah we can just go that that short grass or or just straight up our ARG yes these guys pretty small sample uh we haven’t had a lot of uh Hendrick

Norlander so far this year he’s getting bumped up there I want him to throw you want I mean do you want to get rid of 2024 look at oh I’m not my fault I’m on 20124 that’s uh again reset it here we go that makes way more sense and look

Who’s uh near the top young Scotty Sheffer all right this is uh around the green short graphs again you don’t have to put a description or a note here it makes it a little bit easier for you and I think it’s helpful for the stream purposes um again if you are listening I

Apologize come over to the YouTube channel to watch this but uh we will try to continue to site who these uh who’s coming on on the top of these things so around the green we got captured um putting do you want to do scoring instead do you want to do or no putting

We talked about three three putt ofo let’s take a look three I think three putt avoidance is going to matter because you’re your lag putting on Fast surfaces is going to matter here you’re going to find yourself 40 50 feet from the Hole uh on a different level you know yeah it might

Be a nasty downhiller you’re gonna have some spots where there’s going to be some really you know nervy putts that you’re not trying to make you’re just trying to avoid you know getting on the Green in regulation and bulking that hole Yeah that’s a good point just looking at some

Of the three putt avoidance leaders here wiam Clark at the top Jason day tied with him there Jake knp uh small Earth sample but not small is interesting to see Aaron badley good putter um Jacob uh Bridgeman again kind of a he’s been playing some decent golf chess Hadley

McKenzie Hughes Trace Crow Victor Perez Tom hogi who’s kind of fix some putting woses here kind of your interesting guy see Kim who again Strokes game putting uh bright red not performing well from a Strokes game playing standpoint but does not leave himself with a lot of three

Putts just misses close uh two putts which is interesting to see so we’ll add that to the model here three putt ofo all right do you want to do anything scoring wise or your thoughts there I still I still have mixed feelings about you know how

Low this is going to go yeah I I think you know just everything we’ve including is going to be a hey if all those things are working out you’re gonna find birdies for sure I agree there I think yeah I think we might have uh we might

Have just about enough okay I want to look at this I want to look at Apex height because I think again like we don’t you can um you know we don’t have to add it to the model but I think it is interesting to see some of the guys that

Have like Jason D played pretty well here before hits the ball a mile high um there some guys that I think are are interesting because I do think you’re going to have something here in terms of holding these these greens Joseph bramlet hits it hard and high and fast

Uh he had a nice finish here last year nice finish last week as well fow won here last year again Apex height and Club head and ballp on the up and up for him this year they are trending upwards um so again something maybe to look at

Again you can make the determination if you want to add it to your model I think for the sake of what we have here for the show today we are uh you have enough stuff here so uh you just click this create mixed condition model button working on something in the back end

That can do the math for you so you don’t have to do this I’ll give it a name this is uh nun and Andy betting show Houston open all right uh yeah I mean six things kind of where we typically land on the show it’s good anchor stat Strokes gain total

2024 bigle number maybe 25 yeah I’m comfy with that yeah uh let’s tackle this approach situation here as you mentioned you know we’re double counting the last 20 how should we break up uh last 50 last 20 so just know like if you go 10 and 20

That is 30% of your model is including the last 20 rounds of approach which is maybe not all that much when you you’re going six only with six stats so you know something along those lines for I’d go lighter on the last 20 than the last

50 yeah maybe 1015 so we we do 25 basically from an approach standpoint sure I think makes a lot of sense all right driving distance I want to give it 15 to 20 at least because I really think it matters 20 I’m fine 20 okay all right so that brings us to

70 15 split here on the bottom uh which is probably a little bit more than I want to but again like Ron mentioned in his preview like again we don’t typically weigh around the green as much but last time we were here 202 doing it here yeah yeah 27% of The Strokes gains

At Memorial Park came from around the green was the highest rate on tour the last time we were here so I do think it’s one of those weeks where it does probably matter a little bit more so uh we’ll go 15 I want maybe go 10 here

Let’s give five somewhere else uh let’s maybe just anchor with that this three PS think maybe a little to 10’s probably as high as I’m willing to go it’s plenty yeah all right let’s see what we get here do we get Scotty and Windam it assumes so I don’t know we put

Three put avoidance Scotty and feno probably take a little bit of a bump down windy number one wind him just eding him out this is where he’s going to beat him too right you know the the PTY stuff uh I I thought wiam actually be higher in the scrambling from a short grass

Standpoint but yeah he’s still obviously one of the better ones in the field but yeah I mean um it’s just so close to everywhere else when you’re looking at a a short sample here yeah yeah so the top of the model here uh if you are listening Windam Clark Tops on the model

Scotty Sheffer second in the model uh SI theala third in the model Keith Mitchell this is I don’t know theala I think calls Texas Houston area home currently Keith Mitchell fourth SE Kim fifth Tony fow technically you’re defending champ uh sixth Tom hogi uh TCU horn frog seventh Kurt kyama eighth Doug gim

Continue to get uh massive rewards for ball striking uh ninth Victor Perez 10th uh very very interesting uh top 10 there comparatively some other interesting names outside of that here Steph jger at 12 will zorus 14 LC Liss 15 Jake knap 16 uh Davis Thompson at 17 horel 18

Mentioned how Alex noran played well here last time out so 19th Andrew Novak at 20 Jason day just misses the top 20 here so yeah interesting uh interesting thoughts here and again like you kind of look here we have DraftKings salary here as well again most of your top of the

Board here are making up your top 10 before you get into to some of the discount guys kind of rounding at the bottom of the top 10 so yeah interesting winds 12 12 to one short but second uh he opened at 14 those have kind of Gone Away uh let’s

See I think let’s see what you got at Chris I think he’s still still get still get him 1450 at Chris and then there’s another Gap seah um and Z around 20 and then you take another little jump to the Jason day SE Kim Tony feno chunk around

30 and then it gets uh basically you know norin Mitchell Jagger um pass that kyama kind of in the 4050 to 60 which is you know hogy Patrick Rogers McKenzie Hughes Aaron Ry I bet against last week and it worked out uh Jake knap is here he’s 6750 at

Chris and then yeah there’s going to be plenty of big numbers if you want to take some long shots can bet on some guys that have won this year you can bet on Nick Dunlap at a huge price you can bet on Sam R my guy Sam Ryder I bet on

Him last week obviously didn’t quite work out um but I had the right idea take somebody with a good price um OE 80 to1 piss bear 80 to1 Davis Thompson a lot of people liked him and Ryan Fox 90 and 120 homeless hubs 110 trying to just uh gim Reaper Doug gim

6850 dond you mentioned he’s about 90 that checks out Daniel Burger still getting huge numbers and it feels like there could just be a week where I feel like we might have to pay a burger tax uh starting soon I know I I paid it last

Week and it was it was uh it cashed quickly uh he I think like Bogi three of his first five holes and it was like all right well yeah he he was done so quick e level that he can play at like he has top 10’s like three of the majors and

You know some of those weren’t all that recent and it’s been a while but true I mean he can still if if he can find that like it’s gonna be one of those where he’s 150 180 one week and then suddenly the next week he’s 35 to one so it might

It might be just just be little bets on Danny B every week as a little bit of of attacks I’m I’m putting it down I I’ll do I’ll do it throughout the summer like I will Pace you know 20 the next 20 weeks he plays if if he’s 150 or better

I’m just G what’s gonna be annoying is if he just top fives a couple weeks in a row and and then you know and then the prices will take quite a bit of a plummet so God I don’t need to add to the tax by like betting him top 10 top

20 well I mean I lost my Aaron Ry or Aaron Wise tax so uh you know I can I can take a yeah do have a you do have an open spot on the balance sheet um you know as far as this goes Scotty sheffer’s odds imply he wins like one

Out of four times which is pretty close honestly to you know where where he could be at especially with this field I think his odds are pretty nuts on if you can get three three and a half parlay it was something you like otherwise probably leave him alone you’re not

Going to get rich betting guys at three to1 to win tournaments unless it’s two 000 and you’re betting on Tiger Woods but like you said Clark Z and seah um I don’t know if any of those guys do those guys excite you at those prices with Scotty field that’s the

Thing is like it’s it feel like we’re we’re kind of in like a non-s Scotty Scotty type outright situation where it’s just really hard to make a case especially for bombs like you could sell me on some of the top guys you know their prices are shorter than I would

Want them to be considering Scotty is like sub three I don’t hate the 14 on Windom uh I would like theala but like theala at 18 I guess you know 22 is out there but he’s like 18 and 20 for the most part it’s just really short for me just not a

Guy that I historically back because I feel like the approach game is it’s it’s been better it’s just inconsistent in terms of like actually threatening to win his short game stuff is great this is a spot where it obviously is going to matter he’s not going to get penalized

For the Wayward stuff off the T too zal I mean surprised he missed the cut of the players but again had been playing really good golf leading up to that you know Texas kid to I expect zal to play pretty well here you know I think you

Know top 10 bets I think I can get a top 10 like even odds basically plus 100 even on zal at the top 10 he’ll be in the mix there they’re interesting to me I like Z definitely more than thala at that same price I’m surprised theala is

Shorter fow is really hard again I went there last week I know he’s the defending champ he didn’t play well at all last week missed the cut and now we’re paying shorter odds for him in a fi with Scotty that’s a hard sell for me although you’re getting a nice number

Chris is correct basically I feel like in the market where they’re at 30 everything else on F now is 2022 that’s that’s a reach um just don’t bet Jason day sub30 it’s just not of interest to me so you know it’s pretty much Clark

The galaz alatus to me um and I kind of like all of them but the prices I don’t like I I I hate suggesting that people parlay a golf outright winner with something else that you like is such bad betting advice bad financial advice but like do I want to not have Scotty

Winning in some way shape or form like do you like Yukon Andy I mean who who sell me on like who is going to you’re muted but you can come back in and sell me on like Yukon or someone else I don’t know like I South Carolina Women’s

Basketball plus Yukon to win this round oh man my my boy needs Yukon bad his final four in his bracket was Grand Canyon MCN State uming uh James Madison and Yukon he’s really banking on Yukon he has winning at all he uh first year F first year filling up brackets he really really

Really leaned on uh win loss record those team’s won like 30 games they should beat everybody yeah well we G I’m going to let you do this we’ll learn some good lessons your mom’s going to destroy you in a bracket pool um yeah I mean find something to

Parlay with pass play some matchups play some top 20s play some without Scotty markets I’m I’m curious about uh cashmir Keith and I know what happened on Sunday I tweeted I tweeted that out dude I because I watched the end I you couldn’t watch it I would just had it on the shot

Tracker at the very end to see you know because the tournament was over and he still had 18 to play and he was sitting at T25 he came into the day what with a two-stroke lead MH if you had a top and people did message me in the replies

That they had Keith top 20 bets he needed a birdie on 18 and he got it a really really good approach shot just to get a nine for four Chop on top 20 after I mean like if your guy goes into the last day with a lead you’re

Kind of cashing your top 20 bats at that point you you can spend that money right and that had to feel awful what a roller coaster Sunday from him he had an eagle in a in a round that was like six over um so well the Valar is the home of

The origin course of BU Keegan yeah was the first round leader and then shot 79 around two and missed the cut so like you know that was kind of that course yeah that’s tough he’s look the model we just built uh Mitchell’s fourth in the model um three you’re getting it yeah

You’re getting a similar price and the difference is that you have a god playing golf here this week rather than the field last week it was a good field not but it didn’t include Scotty sheffler so getting a similar price I think I could probably get there in

Keith based on you know we saw three really good rounds we saw some good play and I think some of the issues here um you know some of the issues we saw at the valpar you’re not going to have here yeah he’s a he’s a decent course fit I’m probably

Going to bet him this week and it feels good to not being the fomo guy because he won last week because he did not yeah he uh he’s basically 40 across domestics a little shorter 37 and change on Chris so yeah I don’t hate it a couple guys that maybe a little bit

Longer shots and I again like I’m really trying I haven’t done anything yet the numbers are still fine they’re going to be there I just trying to make a decision do I even want to mess with outrights that aren’t that aren’t Scotty I have not made that decision yet a

Couple guys a little bit longer not necessarily bombs or the one bomb Stephen Jagger uh profiles well for me here T9 here last year there are 50s out there on joerger um a little bit shorter elsewhere again hits it really far not a big guy but hits it further than you

Would think he would hit it um and you know again like some of the courses that he’s play well this year have been longer courses played well at Tory should have won there played well in Mexico not a tough course but a longer course he’s been really good like

Just driver heavy courses approach on Long courses um yeah I mean so minus 105 to t40 is pretty nice um on FanDuel for him 50 to one in the outright Market Jake nap as well I think you can find 60s let me see where nap is uh 67 on Chris

Okay you should find 60 60 to 70 just real easy length the kid can hit it a mile uh and just we saw the putting STS the three put avoids uh let me see where nap is he’s just out I think he’s in the top 20 yeah he was 16th in this model

Third in this field and three po ofo that we just spit in uh both approach buckets he’s eighth and 12th uh distance is again you know just some of the stuff for distance is messed up because the players kind of forces you to to lay back but he

He’s gained putting in six straight starts gained over a stroke putting in uh you know per round at the Players these are the same poet Tri greens that he saw at the Players um so I think that that’s going to work for him in in Texas

As well again like t40 is plus 115 on FanDuel it’s a nice number uh again do I want to throw money at a 60 on him I can he beat Scotty field I’m not quite sure um and bramlett’s the kind of the bomb kind of on bramy he’s 150 I think from

An outright standpoint get a pretty nice top 20 number like you get a longer T20 number on Brandin then you get Scotty to win plus 360 on him again nice finish last week at Valspar t17 hits at the mile uh so gets rewarded for the distance and again a nice little finish

Here last year as well uh again decent from a three pot avoiding standpoint too so I like bramwood as kind of a a longer guy but again do I want to mess with any outrights I don’t I think these are probably finishing position bets for me for these

Longer guys yeah I mean got to run here quick but a couple bombs Jagger like you mentioned somebody I could look into you love Jagger yeah I I love them decent distance decent long irons and you know the price is not electric but good enough uh

Novac based on the irons and just a massive price Ben Griffin kind of the same thing plus he’s been good uh short game good around the greens really good putter really good three putt avoidance and he’s just you know decent enough form and he’s going to be a guy that

You’re gonna find close to 100 to one so couple long shots that’ll probably make the car the whole thing the whole thing might be pretty short it might just be a few matchups again looking further down the board this I do like these tournaments because they offer good down

Theboard matchups like the gim Ry matchup was just that PO off the page for me last week it’s fun when they uh we have some of the names that aren’t like oh it’s Rory and Xander and Xander versus kley and kley versus Rory and just all the top names mixed up together

Like you having a m a major like the Masters coming up so which I will say it one last time the prices will never be this low again if you do want to build your own model check it out on bford sc.com we will grandfather you in for the rest of

Uh I don’t know as long as the internet’s around and I still work here that’s my uh you know promise to you whatever so I need to do some more research on the term grandfathered in I want to know the origin story of of uh of

That yeah I gotta dig into why why college basketball has halves and not quarters that last night girls have quarters High School B high school ball has quarters high school girls ball has quarters European ball has quarters it’s literally the only one so appreciate you guys if you watched on

YouTube give us a thumbs up a quick note before we go as well uh we will not have the show on this YouTube channel anymore uh we wanted to yeah we wanted to put all the golf in one spot we’re just we put it on here because we’re lazy and we

Already had this YouTube channel but we are going to fire up a strictly bet Spurs golf YouTube channel if so you don’t you know so if you like the football stuff you don’t want golf you’re not getting that if want Golf and you don’t want football March Madness

You’re not getting that I’ll have the link to that in the show notes in the description we will tweet it out a bunch as well next week so if you want to keep seeing this you are GNA have to go find that show that page that link subscribe

Hit the bell all that jazz like I said check the show notes for that I’ll have that for you as well so for me and for Ryan and for bsur golf we will catch you on the flip side and