Have a time in H-Town with PGA DFS preview & best bets for the Texas Children’s Houston Open 2024.
Can Wyndham Clark (12-1) win at Memorial Park, or is it another chalk victory for Scottie Scheffler (3-1)?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more on “The 19th Hole (S4 E13).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00:00 Introduction
00:01:24 Valspar Championship Reaction
00:06:37 What Are We Drinking?
00:07:13 Tiger To Play in The Masters
00:08:51 Caddy Notes: Memorial Park Course & Tournament Breakdown
00:19:08 Club Twirls: Texas Children’s Houston Open 2024 Best Bets
00:41:16 No Trunk Slams: Texas Children’s Houston Open 2024 DFS Core Plays & Fades
00:59:25 The Hat Pick
01:01:48 Outro & Plugs
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✖️ Follow the hosts of the program on Twitter/X:
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS/)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime/)
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome back to the 19th hole. We are live as always on in between media. Make sure you like this video, subscribe to the whole damn channel and jingle that bell for notifications. Florida, nice knowing you. We’re moving on to the Longhorn State, the Lone Star State,
Texas for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. in Houston, believe it or not. We got a little bit more Bermuda. We got some great golfers in the field, namely number one in the world, Scotty Scheffler, getting crazy short odds. Will we bet him? You’ll want to stay tuned for this one.
All right connor here we are texas swing formerly the shell houston open when it was a november event and then before that it was a march event now it’s back to march and we have a new sponsor texas children’s hospital houston open same course as last year I think looking pretty fly we
Didn’t have to worry about scotty shuffler ruining our placement bets last week And a guy named Peter Malnati comes out and drives us to drink. I had two guys in the top five that didn’t win outright. I still placement bet one, but I’m going to finish off this entire bottle of Eagle Rare.
Rest in peace, Eagle Rare, because we’ve got to change up the juju. The old bucket hat, just ruining the fun for everybody, really. Although, I mean, you can’t help but feel very happy for Peter Malnati. Nine years, over a thousand days between his last PGA Tour victory and this one,
And stared down a really good field at Valspar. The Copperhead course looked tough, and he was tougher. Pretty… I mean, what else can you say is he beat my two guys who were there at the very end. Your guy, our guy, JT, was there through Saturday and decided to take an early flight.
Oh, my God. Obviously, he had better shit to do. I don’t know. He had more putts on Sunday than I had on Thursday at my golf course from the same yardage, ironically. So I am a better putter than JT was on Sunday. Imagine that. I think he’s just trying to
Give the people what, you know, give them their money’s worth. I think that’s what’s up nowadays. I got to hit the ball more than anybody today. He’s, you know, he’s just adding value for the ticket holder and, Shout out Toronto Dave. No, I hate to say it, but I don’t know that Cam
Young is ever going to get it done, man. He might not have what it takes. After what we saw, where he had it in his hands up until the 17th hole, and then he tees off on 18, and that was it. He had a chance until he
Teed off on 18 and hit it in the woods. And I think the problem continues to be with him. It’s just he’s not very consistent. Like, he has these stretches of really great play. The higher power. Followed by just multiple holes strung together of just falling apart. Yeah,
I was falling apart with him because I had a 22-1 on him. You didn’t agree with me, which is fine. That happens on the show. We both, a couple years ago, were all over Cam Young during his Rookie of the Year season. So we’ll let it slide this time, Cam.
But now that you’re back in good form, we need to see you actually win one now. I don’t want you to be the poor man Xander Shoffley around here where you always contend but never finish the job. What are you going to do? Xander again goes out, shoots what, 64,
65 on Sunday and pulls into a top five finish to pay off a lot of bets for me in DFS. That was very helpful to have Shoffley turn in that Sunday round. But it’s just the same two guys there. You’re like, oh yeah, lock them in top 10, top five.
But are they going to win the damn thing? That’s what we worry about with Young and Xander really. I think, I think I worry about it with a lot of them nowadays. And really what all we’re continuing to see is these big name players either falling apart or, or frankly not giving a
Shit to a point where they’re just out there knocking the ball around. And, uh, you know, unfortunately, uh, like it or not, it’s kind of the state of the PGA right now. So I think we need a morale boost for the players. I think we need to see some fire in the,
Uh, the big guys and to quit giving the casinos our money because, uh, 500 to one on Peter Malnati helps nobody. I’m sure somebody got that ticket, but nobody had that ticket. And except for MGM Caesars, uh, fan duel draft Kings, they had that ticket. Probably was holding a ticket. Probably.
Maybe I would hope so. That’d be awesome. Uh, but yeah, even, uh, our beer bet again with these deep shot calls. I mean, I’ve been on a heater. Kevin Roy tied for 13th. That’s a top 27 to one payout. I’ll take it. Uh,
I also bested you in DFS by over a C note, 102 point victory. Uh, it didn’t have your best effort there. I really didn’t either. It was more, I had a couple of guys that finished very high in my lineup and I had two guys missed the cut and you had three.
That was it. Once I saw that I had the cut advantage, I was like, I got the win. It’s just by how much at this point. Yeah, no, I over-invested in the wrong guys this week. It was not, not a good week. Uh, it, it, it happens. It, surprisingly have been right
There in your shoes earlier this season. I hope that you’re taking it all in right now because my friend, this is not going to continue. So nothing for granted. I’m going to sit my Eagle rare. batting down your hatches this week buddy I’m coming for you coming for you
Texas swing though I mean let’s uh let’s hit the caddy notes I want to jump right into this actually before we do that what are you drinking sir so I’m uh I enjoyed it so much last week I’m gonna stick with it this week the old forester The only fans. I needed comfort.
It’s like a comfort food, really. I need my comfort whiskey this week. Hopefully we get our heads right. Tiger’s in the Masters officially. He’s on the list. Is he? Is he coaching somebody or caddying somebody? I don’t care. As long as he’s on the grounds, I don’t care if he’s
Combing the grass with a toothbrush. I don’t care. As long as Tiger’s at Augusta National in a couple weeks, we’re on board. This is what we nerd out about every year. No, I’m super pumped, actually. That’s great news. Yeah, I mean, I don’t think either of us got any – misconceptions that he’s
Going to actually compete, but it’s going to be awesome to see him tee it up for sure. Yep. Just lay off the in and out, sir, especially pop up in and out under a tent. Not the same as the drive through. Apparently I miss in and out, man.
I couldn’t even tell you the last time I had it in and out. Apparently you disrespected our fearless leader. Pimento cheese, Sandoz. Hell yeah. Three bucks a pop. That’s a, As long as you can afford the four grand or so and get drawn in the lottery for those tickets,
It all comes out in the wash getting the cheap concessions, right? Keep that in mind when you just hand me the tickets you win in the lottery. That’d be nice. Caddy notes. All right, let’s dive into, I don’t even know what this course is called, but it’s in Houston, Texas, by the way.
That’s what I’ve heard. The Houston Open. Changed it up a little bit. I started getting the… Yeah. Let the hair whip. What’s left of it. Put just a ton of shades on. The Texas Children’s Houston Open. That’s a mouthful. A lot of Texas in there. Memorial park golf course in Houston,
Texas, where par 70 yardage is 74, 35 fairways, Bermuda greens, Bermuda POA overseed again. So that’ll be a little more of the same. These happen to be a lot firmer, a lot faster and a lot larger. Yep. So Memorial park golf course is pretty much a link style course. The course itself plays
Longer even than what the yardage would indicate. The greens, like I touched on are massive, super, super fast, very firm. Bunkering, they remodeled this place a few years ago, eliminated damn near all of them. I think there’s less than 20 now, something like 18 or 19 bunkers.
So not a whole lot of sand to worry about. Actually, not a whole lot of water to worry about either. There are, I think, three or four holes where water comes into play. The big thing, the big defense really around these massive green complexes is they have some pretty tricky runoff areas,
Some pretty tricky scrambling to get up and down. Tight, tight, tight lies. The toy-tist. Toy-tist of lies. They do have a… That closely mowed Bermuda around the greens. You’re trying to flip a little wedge on these very, very fast greens. Uh… That’s tricky. I mean, it’s really tricky for deafers like us,
But even these tour pros, if your short game is not locked in, we can see some, we can see some fun. Yeah, for sure. And the, like, I was like, I was about to say the scrambling, um, as you just touched on is really, really critical. Um, not only that,
But being able to get yourself in the hole, uh, on the, on the putting surface once you’re there. So the complete package, super important. Outside of the few bunkers, the little bit of water, you do have some kind of drainage ditches that run throughout, kind of careening through the holes. Barrancas?
Are they barrancas? Derry, you called them that. They don’t call them that. In Texas, they call them a ditch. Yeah. Don’t end up in the ditch, y’all. God damn it. Keep your ball out the ditch. You can get in some trouble there, but the big thing here is the all-around game.
So there’s not one particular approach distance. There’s a lot of them. So you need guys that are handy through their entire set of clubs. Off the tee game, we’re probably going to have a split opinion here. A lot of people are really heavy on distance guys, a little more bomb and gouge approach.
I’m not as excited about that as as I am about the other end of the hole um I focused a lot on the short game aspects a lot more so careful on the phrasing there so uh yeah I so where I was going with off the t game though distance if you
Want to play the bomb and gouge narrative that’s definitely valid this week a lot of people go on that route Accuracy is not a big deal. The rough is not a big deal off the tee. So I would I would really heavily encourage people to take a long look at all around approach.
You’re going to have a lot of long approaches. You’re also going to need guys that are good with wedges. It’s weather flat. The flat version of Augusta National with fewer trees, fewer bunkers and no pine straw. That’s what I get from this off off the tee. Is that what you’re saying?
Yeah, it’s like it’s wide open. The rough isn’t much. There’s no bunkers. But the one thing you didn’t mention that is the number one defense for any golf course in Texas, the wind. It’s supposed to be pretty blustery this week. See, I don’t think that I agree with that.
I’ve heard a couple people say that. And 10 to 15 mile an hour gusts, I don’t think I would consider that to be a strong textbook. I saw up to 25. I saw up to 25 on three of the days. I’ll say that it keeps fluctuating. It is something to take into
Account and it can always be windy. Yeah, absolutely can. You know, I think, I think it’s going to be pretty dry regardless. It looked like the only moisture that was going to come in was going to be yesterday or today and a little bit tomorrow. But outside of that, yeah, there,
There will be some wind for sure. Five to 10 sustained almost the entire time. Gus getting up into that 15 high teens range is what I saw. Bo also saw up into the mid 20s. So it’s definitely something to take a look at. More than a two club win.
That’s when we actually care because like you said, it’s 10 to 15. Doesn’t matter. These guys are all really good and they can do just fine in a breeze. It’s a damn breeze. And when it turns into from a breeze to a blustery windy day where your towel is whipping and and you
Can’t tell where it’s coming from. That’s the thing about these golf courses with very few trees is the wind. doesn’t necessarily swirl, but you have no, unless you’re pulling up all the weeds to see which way it’s blowing, it can be really tricky out here, especially if you’re trying
To get close to a pin that’s on this gigantic, very, very fast green. And you’re right, there are a ton of different approach distances. I’m thinking off the tee, distance is the advantage because there’s not really that defense against tee shots that we’ve seen in the previous weeks.
Where let’s say a guy hits at 330 and in the first cut of rough or even the second cut of rough which is only a couple inches long and then you have a guy who hits at 290 in the middle of the fairway I still favor the guy who’s hitting
A wedge versus a seven or eight iron because they’re going to have a better chance of holding these fast greens at least a proximity that can give them that birdie opportunity yeah for the shorter irons I totally get it I think my logic with the driving distance not
Being so critical is because there isn’t a bucket there’s many buckets right even the shorter guys are going to be hitting some short wedge shots too so it’s especially on these par threes that was interesting yeah the par threes are interesting I think the par fours are maybe a little more interesting because
There’s what four of them are over 500 and the other there’s a couple that are shorties too yeah I think there’s a there’s one one of them’s drivable The other one’s like four 10. So if it’s downwind, it’s pretty close to driveable. So I think, I just think that, uh,
Distance can be an asset for sure. I’m not going to say it’s going to hurt anybody. It’s definitely not something I don’t have in my model. Um, But yeah, I think all I wanted you to say, Connor, that’s all I wanted you to say is that distance matters. Length matters. Beef matters.
Give me the beef. Give me the guys. They’re hitting more wedges versus fewer. And I just think that scoring on this course is not going to be that difficult. It’s about average difficulty, a little bit above average distance for a part 72. it’s gonna matter. Even if you’re only waiting
At eight to 10% of your overall model, that’s fine. That’s where I’m at. So I’m saying it matters maybe a little bit more than you think it matters. How much are you waiting? No, I did five to eight, but I used distance as my tiebreaker this week. Oh, that’s smart, that’s smart.
I just threw it in at 8% to 10%. Yeah. Okay. I get it. I get it. This guy, he’s crazy like Fox. We’ll see how it goes. But, yeah, just to round out the rest of the info about the course, Bo kind of touched on it.
I think the scoring probably is high teens, low 20s. I’m pegging it around 17, 18. Cut should probably be, I would say, probably even to minus one, maybe. I don’t know what you think. I think it’s going to be two to three. It’s a big field. So that’s kind of what I lean.
Your cut score is going to be a little bit better. I think. Yeah. I don’t hate that call. I mean, it’s some, somewhere probably low single digits. Yeah. Um, the only relevant past winners really, because this course has changed a location a few times. You got Tony Finau last year at 1600 at,
Uh, 10 under the year before and then carlos ortiz at 13 under the year before that prior to that I forget where it was held but it’s been held like three or four different courses yeah yeah and it’s it’s this is a fun one I actually like this course it’s not the
Most photogenic after we just saw bay hill and tpc sawgrass and even copperheads a really cool course for It’s weird to get a parkland course in Florida like that one. And so then you’re going to this wide open, flat, plain style, like lowlands golf course,
Which is kind of cool in its own way, where you get a different type of feel. And that’s to get a field like this. It’s this strong because of how it falls on the schedule as kind of a master’s tune up in a way. These two Texas events are,
That come before Augusta are pretty solid tune-ups for Augusta, at least for that style of play. So I really am looking forward to this one. Let’s twirl some clubs and bet on golf because we have a lot to say on this matter. We agree on a lot of these guys,
But maybe not in the way you think. And that’s where I want to leave you when I hit the drop here, is think about how we might agree in a different way. on the club so bet your mortgage on scotty scheffler all right everybody have a good no
Need to to make a profit uh it’s not that you shouldn’t bet scotty scheffler who is about two and a half to one pay out if he wins outright again and again he’s so good that he should win this tournament he never has before which is interesting that is a point
To be made here But it’s not if you should bet Scottie Scheffler. It’s when, in my opinion. This is the perfect opportunity to wait and see what Scottie does to start his round on Thursday. If he starts off slow and he’s five, six shots back of the lead sometime on Thursday,
His odds are going to slip. And you might get 7, 8, 9, 10 to 1 Scottie live betting. That’s something I would do. Because when he opens such short odds, he’s still Scottie. We’ve just seen him win coming back from eight shots. Just saw that a couple weeks ago.
He’s eight shots back, still comes back, makes it look easy, wins outright pretty comfortably. And that’s what Scottie does. So wait your, bide your time. Don’t bet him now because it’s dumb. Like you’d have to put a shit ton of money up front to hope that Scottie wins a tournament he should win.
And instead you can wait until his odds get a little bit slippery on Thursday or even Friday. And if he’s still within striking distance and his odds are closer to 10 to one or anything, I think North of five is fine for me betting on Scotty this week because of
How well he fits the course. He’s number one in my bottle by light years. So it’s Scotty Scheffler. He’s that hot. He’s that good. And you just don’t want to bet him now, bet him when he slips a bit, right? Connor. Yeah, and in contrast, just to throw this in,
You do bet Wyndham Clark now because if Scotty slides, it’s Wyndham who’s stepping up. Guess who’s got the most to prove in this entire field? He just got knocked off by Scotty twice in a row. He’s pissed. He has to win this tournament, and he’s a better horse for
This course than Scotty is, despite him not being a Texan. Scotty is a Texan. Oh, we ought to bet on Scotty. He’s in his home state. It’s like Texas is gigantic. You might as well say he’s from Missouri at this point because of how big Texas is. Yeah. I mean, here’s like,
I don’t think we need to talk about Scotty a ton. Like we could probably get into wind them a little more. I think he’s a good bet if you want to win because he has a high likelihood of winning. Yeah. You’re just, I mean, You’re not going to make much money. I mean,
Maybe better round of drinks on it because what’s the difference? But, yeah, with Wyndham, the only thing – I see where you’re saying he’s a better course fit here. I don’t know that I agree with you wholeheartedly. I think the areas of Wyndham’s game that are a little sketchy from time to
Time are the areas that could potentially get him in trouble here is – Some of the approach stuff, some of the longer buckets, he flares inconsistent. The other thing, too, is he’s not awesome around the green. He’s not bad by any stretch. He’s an outstanding putter, and that’s how he gets away
With scrambling. His scrambling stats are the opposite of Scotty. Scotty’s an amazing chipper, but can’t putt. And then Wyndham can’t chip, but he’s a world-class top five in the world putter. Yeah, so I mean, I think I think really in this situation, they’re both fantastic fits are both fantastic plays. Awesome form.
I think you got to do kind of one of the two things that we just talked about is, is you can bet them both. And if you do that, get Wyndham now, get Scotty later. Or, or don’t bet either of them because, because their numbers are going to flip flop throughout the weekend.
And I think you just got to be savvy enough to know when to get in on both. And I don’t think you’re going to get a better number on Wyndham throughout the weekend. No, and that’s the thing is he’s appropriately priced and Scotty isn’t at this point. It’s going to take Scotty
Having to come from behind to get a decent number on him. But Wyndham is such a solid bet here that I’m starting my card with him. I’m starting my DFS lineups with him in most cases. And do you have anybody outside of that? Because I think yours drop
Off quite a bit after Clark, do they not? Uh, I dropped down to, uh, my next guy’s 25. Okay. My next guy is Sahithi Gala at 18. He was a 20. Yeah, sell me into that. I don’t get it. You were just talking about scrambling, especially around the green game.
He’s world-class on approach lately. What scares you is his off-the-tee game accuracy, which isn’t going to kill him this week. This is a similar type event to the waste management, in my opinion. The way it sets up, the way you’re not going to deal with too much trouble off the tee,
Even if you’re wayward, which he tends to be, kind of like you’re your poor man’s Jordan Spieth in a way where he’s wild off the tee. His approach game is streaky, but around the greens, he’s an ace and he’s had a pretty decent putter too. So give me Saheed Thigala
Because of the firepower aspect. He’s, there’s only a few guys in this entire field. I feel that could still chase down Scotty and Wyndham Clark and Willie Z if they were scoring well, like he’s not going to be the guy that’s out of reach at any point.
Not like Cam Young last week, honestly. Yeah, see, he’s rated out, like, incredibly well for me. Like, I think for me it’s just I can’t pinpoint why. Like, it looks to me like he’s getting carried tremendously by his putter. Yeah, well, he’s second overall in short game over the last 24 rounds,
Third in birdies or better, second in bogey avoidance, third in strokes gained par four. And he’s 26 in this field and driving distance. So not overly long, but plenty long. He’s 12th in strokes gained par five. He’s no worse than 44th in any stat that I measured.
And that puts him at number two, pretty, pretty clearly over Wyndham Clark and Doug Gim and my model behind Scotty. So it’s Scotty for me, number one by a long shot. And then it’s a Heath and then another long shot down to the next tier. So the Gala pops in a
Serious way in my stat model, and he’s been playing good golf this year. I love the way he scores from the short game, especially on the longer holes. There’s a lot of longer holes here. The par fives are pretty long and the par fours, four of them are over 500 yards.
I think the Gala has all the cards right for this golf course to have the similar kind of success he’s had at Scottsdale. Yeah. I don’t, I mean, like I said, I don’t hate it. He’s fifth in mine or I’m sorry, six of mine, mine, Oh, man,
The poor guy’s in the top 10 out of 144 bodies. What a terrible bet. No, I was just curious because, like, he’s somebody in my head that, like, I’m so sold that Wyndham or Scottie wins this, and I can’t see Tagala winning this. And I’ve been trying to like I can. Right.
But it’s not that far of a jump. Like, I think that you might throw a little bit on a top five if it was you, because you kind of feel like he could be there. I mean, I get it. Well, I recognize strongly the same way
That Scotty or Wyndham is going to win. Yeah. But after that, you have to find out who are the guys that could win. Like have the firepower to win and not just like win in case Scotty and Wyndham don’t show up well. That could always happen. But what if they do?
There’s only a handful of guys, like I said, that can compete with Scotty and Wyndham if they’re both playing decent. 18 to one is awfully short for the gala is only my thinking is my thinking for an outright. Like I, anyways, the talent pool dries up pretty quick in this field.
That’s kind of what we’re trying to say here is the, after you’ve bet the favorites, you’re not going to throw much money on your long shots this week. No, but I mean, there are some guys here like Jason day at 25 to one. I have some interest in it and him. He’s,
He’s a guy that like archetype fits the course, right? He struggled with accuracy off the tee. Not a big deal here. He has the ability to be immaculate out of control, uh, on his short game in a good way. And he has the ability to hit every iron in his bag.
He’s very good at scrambling historically has played well here. Um, you know, this is a course that really is set up for Jason day to do well at, and I think 25 to one on Jason day. on a more smarter than 25 to one on Tony fee.
Now that’s, that’s where I was going is, is on a very proven tour professional, like Jason day, like makes a lot of sense at 25 to one. So, so he’s going to get some, if this was 2022 or 2023, Tony fee. Now it’s a different story, but 2024 Tony fee now has
Been absolutely terrible. And by his standards at first, and now by everybody’s standards, Tony Finau has been off, like just not himself. So don’t bet Tony Finau here, despite everybody in their mom, he’s 76th in my model. And I ran it first and he was 13th. And I was like, wow,
That’s still not good enough to bet him at his current odds. If he’s 13th in my model, that’s still not good enough. And then my latest run, which narrowed down the timeframe of recent form, He’s 76. Gross, right? That’s disgusting. Do not bet Tony Finau. It ain’t going to happen this week.
And you have a guy, you have Jason Day right there. You have Siwoo Kim and Kashmir Keith Mitchell are there that look better than Tony Finau. And that’s not even saying I’m going to bet them. These are DFS pieces we’re going to talk about later. But Jake Knapp, horse for the course,
Red hot, fire-breathing dragon, out there hitting piss missiles 190 miles an hour off the club face. Jake Knapp, I know you agree with me here. Holy shit, what a fit. This is Vedanta on steroids because it’s Vedanta if it had fast greens. And Jake Knapp tore that place apart.
We called it on this show. I mean, I did, but you were in accord with me. So try to sell me out of Jake Knapp this week because I’m feeling it again. No, you just said it first is all. Okay. So no, I’m all over Jake Knapp.
Jake Knapp makes a ton of sense here. 55 to one is better than we got at Mexico. We got him at 45 in Mexico, obviously a weaker field, but still. Yeah. The higher power to catch Scotty and Wyndham check. Yeah. I don’t, again, I, I think that’s a tall ask
For where Jake Knapp’s at. I, I admittedly, I’m going to have a pretty short card this week. Um, i do think that jake knapp is as solid a play as as anybody and 55 to one for a guy who’s um really been playing super well lately makes a lot of sense so I
Like I like it I would probably look for I would probably look for a top 10 number two maybe just to kind of yep currently top 10 is plus 450 outstanding that’s that’s similar to what we did with uh why can’t I think of Cam Young last week?
Cam Young top 10 bet was really nice four or five to one payout and we cashed it. Actually top five was even better and we cashed that too. This is maybe a really small, maybe a half unit for me. Uh, on, on the outright, as I go down this list,
It goes to quarter units and then I’m doing placement bets in this tier. I’m doing top 10 placement bets for four or five to one. And then as we go to these longer shots, guys, you’re going to take a quarter unit, smaller bet on the outright because it’s less likely to happen.
But you can also throw some money on top 20, top 40, even making the cut. We can sometimes pay off pretty well. So manage your bankroll and stack the bets you feel the best about. That’s what I do at the top is that like, if I really love Scottie this week,
Which I don’t yet, But if I really love Scottie this week, I’d be doing the outright, the top five and the top 10. Even if the odds are negative at the top five and top 10, it’s still winning. If he does win, you win all three bets. And that’s something you can
Also do to play a little double down in blackjack. You increase the risk, but your payoff is more significant. There you go. Yeah. Any interest in him? No, I have no interest in Doug Ginn, but 55-1 Mackenzie Hughes, that’ll be somebody that I would be willing to put a
Lot of money down on. He’s so hot right now. And he’s a dude. Hansel Hughes is so hot right now. He’s ridiculous. Like you look at the strokes game metrics around his short. He’s the hottest Canadian this side of Ryan Reynolds. I mean, that’s a weird, it’s like a weird scale, but.
Hey, Bieber’s on that scale too somewhere. The only thing I’d really say about him is he’s done well here, 16th, 29th, and a 7th. His last few starts, he’s averaging over 7 strokes on the green, over 7 strokes on the rambling. His off-the-tee game won’t matter as much here,
Which does tend to hold him back, but he’s got a decent enough approach game, and then, like I said, that short game is probably head and shoulders above anybody else in this field, so Yeah, I really like Mackenzie Hughes at 55-1. All right. I know we both have a couple
Guys outside of 101. Anybody in between there where you’re going to throw a couple bucks their way? No, I didn’t think so. Me neither. Actually, my guy, shout out NorCal, Cameron Champ has been playing well lately. This is the kind of course where he shows up too. Weird that he showed up last
Week at the Valspar. That was strange. I did not expect to see my guy from Sacramento play well at the Valspar. that’s a green flag for this week for Cameron champ coming in at 90 to one outright. I’ll throw, I’ll throw four bucks on that. Shout out NorCal Cameron champ.
He’ll get a couple of bucks just for Homer ism, but then I’m dropping. I’ll play, I’ll play Kitty Yama. He’s solid. I like both of them. You know me, they’re, they’re my boys. I can play both of my boys anytime I want. I just had to mention my guy
Cam at 90 to one being a solid number. I think, I will never bet Cam Champ. But Kurt Kitayama here, we’re talking about NorCal people, actually makes a shitload of sense. He has a game that makes more sense in Texas than it does in California. That’s true. It’s because he’s from
Inland California like me because the coastal courses and the inland courses in California, whole different ballgame. The coastal courses are all that bent grass and poana. And in the inland, we have Bermuda. And we have wind. And we have courses just like this one in NorCal, in the valley. So, yeah, you’re right.
You’re right. This actually rates out pretty similarly to the courses we played in our youth in NorCal. So it makes a ton of sense. I’m with you. I just like both guys. I’m glad you’re the guy that brought up Kitayama. That’s a big step. That’s why I let you talk
About Finau for 10 minutes. That way I don’t have to say, yeah, Kitayama. Hey, I talked about Finau in a cautionary tale, so at least there’s that. I dropped down pretty far after that, and I know you’re with me. Well, I’ve got a guy at 110, which I think is probably
Shorter than yours, so I would take a look at Sam Ryder. I would take a look at Sam Ryder. Short F and T, but This guy’s short game, especially his putting right now, is pretty much second to none. He’s played incredibly well here. So I don’t want to spend a
Ton of time on him. But, I mean, things to know. He’s a lot like Mackenzie Hughes in what he’s been gaining on the green and around the green lately over the last few starts. You want some stats? I have some stats if you want me to spit them out.
Sam Ryder, eighth in my model. Sixth on par fours. Fourth on the proximity between 175 and 200, which there’s going to be plenty of those holes. He’s 13th on par fives and number one in this entire field in birdies or better gained, which is my heavily, most heavily weighted
Metric birdies are better gained. Sam Ryder, number one overall. Isn’t that sweet, Connor? It is sweet, and you know how he’s doing it. I mean, when you gain… Last week at Valspar, he gained almost 11 strokes putting. I mean… And it’s not like that’s like… I mean, that’s absurd. But his putting,
He averages close to four and a half strokes game putting every week. Like this guy’s lethal with a putter. And he’s making birdie putts, which is the best kind of putt. That’s exactly where I was going with that. His birdie or better rates that good because he doesn’t… Off the charts. So, yeah.
I agree with you wholeheartedly. Sam Ryder is definitely making my card. And our deep shots are pretty deep. So deep. Bud Colley’s number has slipped to 180 to one. And there’s a guy from Argentina down here that I just love this week. Alejandro Toasty. 350 to one for Toasty.
I got to make sure he’s still there. He might have slipped even farther. He’s down to 400 to one. You skipped right over my favorite, my favorite player, my new favorite player, Hayden Springer at 200 to one. who is the best approach combined putter. Most strokes gained on scrambling. He’s insanely good.
What was he? Top five going into Saturday? Yeah, he was tied with my guy Kevin Roy last week until the final round, and he totally shit the bed, and Roy played well. Yeah, eight over Sunday doesn’t help anybody. He pulled the JT. Yeah, I think they were drinking together personally.
I’ll let you hop back to your guys in just a sec since we’re talking about them. But all the things that I liked about Springer last week, from the approach ranges that he’s good at to the scrambling prowess to the excellent putting, I think he demonstrated last week that a lot of
Those things we loved are there, and he’s a very real threat to compete. So I think I think I’ll take the one really bad round out of the equation from last week and go right back to him. I think 200 to one, honestly, after the performance last week is awfully long for
What he’s doing right now. What do you think about Kali? I mean, we’re still the Bud Kali fan club, but are you playing him? I think I think he’s one of those that I throw five, ten bucks on and out. Right. Just because I believe that it’s in there.
I don’t know that I don’t know that what he did last week. is a knock against him. I just don’t know if it’s a selling point either. Like I just don’t, I I’m starting to think we’re going to have a lot of volatility with bug golly where we’re,
We’re going to have a hard time calling when he’s going to have that, that win. He’s going to have a good week. One of these times to make us look really smart. Yeah. I’ll keep riding the train a little while longer. Like I see it. He did that for us three weeks ago.
And that that’s the, that’s the dragon I’m chasing. Oh, Springer for me. Yeah. I’m with you on Springer. I’m also with you on our guy Eric Barnes. He’s got the firepower here too. So maybe not betting outright, but as we go into DFS here, no trunk slams. Connor, you were slamming that trunk
Something fierce last week. I felt bad just annihilating you into oblivion. But that’s DFS golf for you. A lot of DFS golf. slamming with me a lot a lot of people on I can’t relate honestly I’ve had these three or four profitable weeks in a row where I feel like a complete visionary
And I know it won’t last like I’m gonna feel like a moron very soon uh but it’s been wild to see everybody complaining on twitter about the about who’s winning and who’s and who’s in lineups and I’ve been hitting all of them so like watch this show this show wins people money
Because we’re so off our rocker insane that we’re coming up with dudes that nobody else is playing and you can get chalky in a lot of places as we hit this drop that’ll make up for it right Connor. Oh, Scotty Scheffler’s $13,000 on DraftKings. That’s a record. I’m going to play him.
Me too. So, and I guess the field is also over their damn skis on Scotty Scheffler at $13,000 or more than 30% of your or nearly 30% of your bankroll for the entire salary cap. He is going to be projected at 44% rostered. Holy smokes. How high are you going on the exposure?
That’s the question. I will probably get to 50%. So we’re going down with the ship. I mean, it’s smart money still because he averages more than 30 points, more than the next person in this field in DraftKings points. You know why? Because he’s always in the top five. Even when he wasn’t winning,
He was about to win or should have won or he did win. And that offers those 30 bonus points for first place on top of all the damn birdies this guy makes. He makes birdies in bunches. He’s the quintessential DFS golfer, which is why he’s at the max price of $13,000 and
Why you should probably bet him at least 30%. I think the lowest on go is 30%. Here’s the thing with him. Take the price tag away from it. if you compare his projective fantasy output this week, based on, based on the course, based on the fit, all that stuff,
It’s not going to be that. It’s not going to be that triple digit. Like you normally see, you know, in DK when you’re scrolling, but I’m showing him projecting it around, around 90 points. He’s going above that too. And that’s, that’s like organic. Right. And the next question to him
Is going to be the gala. Who’s projecting at 76. So like, Right, right. But here’s my point in saying that. If I can feel confidently that Scottie is going to be around 90 points regardless of whether he wins or not, even if the gala wins and gets the bonus points,
At what he’s projected, he still is scoring less than Scottie. That’s true. And the gala is chalky in his own right. The top three guys, Scheffler, Clark, the gala. 44, 26, 25% projected. You’re not going to find leverage at the top here. The top is chalk and exposure limitation up to you.
Your leverage is going to be Willie Z, Tony Finau, Siwoo Kim, and Jason Day. And we talked about a few of these guys that we much favor Jason day in that scenario, maybe a little Willie Z, but I mean, Willie Z, Willie Z and DFS appeals to me. Yeah.
I show them higher than you do. I show them coming up on, on 21%. So, I mean, split the difference, call them high teens, but 18% is the number I got. Yeah, I show him, like I said, so, you know, maybe split the difference. Say he lands somewhere. But I think, yeah,
Jason Day is probably the first leverage play I do in some of the more, like, and what’s crazy about it is it does lead us to a more balanced lineup because Day is at 9,500. Exactly. But I think Day is probably my leverage play when I’m building balanced.
I think Siwoo Kim is an interesting one. Just from the form he’s in, I don’t think I’ve ever seen Siwoo string together a better season than he’s done over the last season. He’s oddly consistent, not like him to be this consistent. He hasn’t missed a single cut this year.
And I think some of the accuracy woes that you see with Siwoo are somewhat mitigated here. Um, Oh yeah. But the, the unfortunate thing with Siwoo is you got to hope that he’s got the right putter in the bag this week. Um, yeah, cause that’s, that’s where it can go off
The rails pretty quick. But I think Siwoo is an interesting one at 9,700 Jason day. I’ll make some rosters. Um, Alex Norin is the one I’m on the fence about like the, I don’t, he’s dead to me. I don’t play him. He’s a stat batter. Yeah. He, he does have some of that,
But this is a course that I would normally, normally like equate him being a good fit at. So that’s why I said I’m on the fence. I need to do a little more digging on Norin, but Norin at 9,400, um, you know, and only projected around 12% with Jason Day. It’s just,
It’s two guys that have the ability to fit this course pretty well. So kind of good leverage plays if you want to build balanced. Yeah. Well, as we go down the list here, you got your guy. Kashmir Keith, 92. Tom Hoagie, 9,000. I think I’ll be smaller exposure for those guys
Because I want to get to Steven Yeager here. We didn’t talk about him in betting, but very strong DFS player, in my opinion, for this type of golf course. He’s got the firepower to score a lot of points here. And he’s been pretty decent. And when he peaks, he’s a top 10 player.
So if he plays well here, he’s the kind of guy that can finish in the top 10. which would pay off at 8,900. And then I like Hostler and I like Patrick Rogers. Ironically, Patrick Rogers comes out as a high projected total for me and at a lot less ownership
Than the guys around him. Um, I would, I’m probably taking a pass on, on Patrick Rogers. I, Oh no. I there’s in the only reason I say that is I, I think in that region, like I would rather pay down for Doug Gim, Kirk Kittayama and Jake Knapp. I just,
I don’t need an $8,500 Patrick Rogers. Yeah, that is true. He’s, he’s a little bit more than he should be. He does have 5%. 5% projection is what appeals to me in that range. He does have the good tee time split, though, by the way. He’s got the PMA. Yes.
But you’re right about Gim and Kitayama. Not too exposed. Jake Knapp is the chalky one here, but we’re going to play him anyway. And then I got Mackenzie Hughes right there, who I already said. He’s at 12% is, I think, right where we should be. $7,800 for him is a misprice.
To see him at 12% with a misprice being that low. That’s a green flag for him. You want to probably double that exposure up to 30%. What do you think about Ben Griffin right there? Yeah, he’s too cheap. 7% projected ownership and only $7,600. He’s definitely in the pool.
Coming off a 17th last week at Valspar. Coming off a 16th here last year. Ben Griffin. I know he wasn’t too far down. Ben Griffin. Oh, 11th. That’s not bad at all. He’ll kill you off the tee and on the longer approach. He’s actually, for a shorter hitter,
He’s better with the shorter irons, which is not always the correlation you see. But his around the green game, which we’re really focused on, and his putting. His putting is actually, I think it’s third. Yeah, third and short game. And 11th on par fours and 11th in bogey avoidance. I like this guy.
Yeah, so Ben Griffin is somebody that I know you and I were really big on for a long time, and I think he’s kind of become like the forgotten one just because he’s never really done much except make cuts and score you points for four days.
He’s a top 40 guy, top 40 guy. He doesn’t score a ton of points. He’s just blah. He’s paper white. He’s just mayonnaise. He’s not exciting, but he can make for an exciting week. If you have him in the DFS lineup, You pretty much can guarantee he’s going to
Make the cut and get you four rounds of points, which is more than you can say about a lot of guys down here. Your next guy, Davis Thompson, and you got guys like, shoot, man, Ryan Fox. Ryan Fox rates high for me. What do you think of him at 7,200? Yeah,
This is a course I like Ryan Fox on because Ryan Fox can hit the ball always. Yeah, he does, man. Accuracy is not usually a gift for him. No, it is not. He’s 10th and birdies are better gained here. Well, shit. When you’re 20 yards from every green sooner or later,
You’re going to launch him. He was launching him that last time I saw him play. I was like, wow, this guy just, he’s not, he’s not like a Jake Knapp where it’s just a nice flowy swing. Ryan Fox looks like he’s about to just rip the cover
Off the ball every time he swings. Yeah. And I think, I think, it depends on what route you’re going on your builds and like what you believe. If, if you think bomb and gouge has validity here, like, you know, he’s, he definitely is a prime candidate because one nice
Thing about Ryan Fox is he does have a really good scrambling and like your short iron approach game. So he, he’s one of those guys that if you do some bomb and gouge lineups, he makes a ton of sense, especially at that price to be a cornerstone of those, those lineups.
He opens up a lot of spending power up top. Sure does. Completely agree with that. This kind of seems like a Luke list course, but I want to get your thoughts because I’m on the fence with him. Even making the pool, he’s kind of on the outskirts right now.
He’s in that same range with Joel Damon and… As you go down, the sixes are pretty loaded for me. So I might not need to put Luke list in my pool, but what do you think? I think he makes the pool. I just, I think, I mean, I think I’m going to
Probably match the field. I’ll probably be around 10%. I don’t, I don’t want to get overexposed the list. And it’s just because I think in a lot of ways, so many times, well, and I think in a lot of ways we might’ve missed the window on him. Like, I think he,
He had a really nice little run and I’ll probably wait to see signs of life out of him before I started investing heavily again. Yeah, that’s probably smart. The sixes, man. Just go through your guys in the sixes because I have Chan Kim, Maddie Schmidt, Gary Woodland, Cameron Champ.
I know you’re not going to agree with that one, but we’re looking at a lot of guys down here. Sam Ryder, 6,900. That’s a steal. He’s definitely there. How about Alex Smalley? taylor pendereth taylor pendereth actually is somebody who as I dove in a little bit more like bomber
Yeah and he’s super super volatile like he could be yeah he could be in the top five but he could 100 miss the cut um so I do like some taylor pendereth um peter malnati surprisingly nobody wants to touch him um yeah radioactive after the rare win
Yeah. I mean, I’ve got him projected at 3%, which is weird because Chandler Phillips, who you would think, um, with all the television coverage that he got is also 3%. And, uh, I don’t know for, for maybe, maybe people that haven’t been playing the game of golf their entire life,
Like Chandler Phillips is going to be a good player. Like he’s got a very good game. He’s got the it factor too. Yeah. He’s, you can watch the guy play and know that, know that he, he belongs there. I mean, he’s, yeah, that’s an understatement. So he’s a consummate professional.
Yeah. Chandler Phillips is somebody who I’m, I’m probably gonna, um, be a little more invested in than I already was. Like he’s one of the guys that I’ve been kind of playing under the radar, seeing how it goes. And we haven’t had the best results, but he really looked like
He’s rounding into shape. You know, who’s been making me money just by being the last guy in my pool is Carl Yuan. Carl Yuan. I don’t love him. I don’t hate him, but you put him in your pool and this dude pops up in the optimal lineups lately.
It’s just funny because he’s always cheap. He’s always somewhere you can sprinkle in 10%. But the last couple of weeks, my best lineup has had Carl Yuan in it. Yeah, I’m with you. I play him. I usually play him in two, three lineups. You know what I mean?
Just have him in the pool and then random lineup generate. But yeah, I mean, he’s one of the guys that I’ve been leaning on. Hayden Springer is down here at 5,900. Another guy we’re leaning on, Eric Barnes, 5,900. Collie, 62. Kevin Doherty at 5,800. Nick Dunlap at 5,800.
Dunlap’s got all kinds of fun. Rico Hoey playing his ass off right now. Let’s go, Rico. I met him at the Barracuda. Where’s your boy Toasty at? Toasty is down here at 5,300. Isn’t that nice? Real nice. Yeah, Toasty, 5,300, 0.6% owned. That’ll be my Viva Argentina, Argentina.
I made some flank steak and chimichurri the other night. It was fantastic. So I’m going with the Argentinian, Alejandro Toasty. Let’s go, bomber, gouger, extraordinaire, the most volatile golfer on the planet. Toasty’s getting Toasty, and we’ll be toasting Toasty next week when he wins us a shit ton of money.
Let’s let’s hope so. 5,300. I have nothing to lose. Yeah. So down, down here, I would just suggest like, we could spend an entire night talking about some of these guys trying to educate you on who half of them are. What I would say is if you’re,
If you’re getting up top with Scotty, I would go immediately down to the low sevens build upward from there. Like, get a couple of guys in those low sevens and then kind of fill out your lineups as you get more comfortable moving up. And, but if you’re starting to step down or
Two, like with Wyndham, you don’t even need to be anywhere near these fives. Like you can build a very like nice balanced roster that. That’s true. The 13,000 limits your options right off the bat. And that’s one thing you have to recognize. If you want to play Scotty, you’re the bottom of your
Lineup is going to be pretty skimpy. But we had some stronger skimpy plays. Hayden Springer is going to be in a bunch of mine. I know that I’m going to overexpose myself, but I’m… God, he’s so hot right now. Like we just said earlier in the show, increase the risk because
The payoff when you’re right is going to be epic. Are you likely to win with that strategy? We’ll see. So who wins this week, Bo? Wyndham Clark. Wyndham Clark. And I know you agree with me. That’s the fun part, is we’re in complete accordance that Wyndham Clark is going to get
Redemption and beat Scotty Scheffler at the end of the day. I think it’s going to be a great showdown. I think that those two are going to be there. There might be a couple other guys hovering around the top of the leaderboard, but this is a clash of the titans,
And you would not think by the results, but The gap between Scotty and Wyndham right now isn’t very big. It’s just not. No. I mean, Wyndham is the one I wrote up. I have them both in my column. 17 under. That’s my guess. I think you’re probably about right.
I will say that I think Mackenzie Hughes could be a real dark horse this week. The Mack. The Mack attack Hughes. It’s worth a couple bucks. Who’s your first-round leader here? My first round leader, Sahith Thigala. Thigala is a great Thursday player. And I think that you’re going to get a wider,
A better score in the morning on Thursday where Thigala plays. Am I right with that? I’m pretty sure. I was just trying to check for you. No, he’s PMAM. Okay, so that’s a better split for if you want to do 36-hole leader. Oh, yeah, he’s a 104.
So, yeah, let’s go with Doug Gim, first-round leader. That’ll be a good number, too. He’s at 8.37 a.m. I like it. I’m going to go Jake Knapp again, first-round leader. Yeah. Where’s he at? What time is his tee? A.m. I don’t have the exact in front of me. He’s got the a.m. p.m.
Split, though. Yeah. So rougher for his 36 hole, but he’s in that area. I can’t find him either. I can’t read. So I told you, I told you that in light of my awesome luck lately that I was going to draw a name out of a hat this week. So, so every week.
This is somebody you should throw your stupid five bucks on. We’ll see what it ends up being. Every week I’m just going to do a random number generator. I’m going to hit it. Okay. Before you draw, how many are in there and who did you put in there?
So it’s 144. I did the whole field. Holy crap. You have 144 pieces of crap in that hat? No, no. I got a random number generator. The hat’s like… It’s a metaphorical hat, though. It’s a metaphorical hat. Oh, well, that’s no fun. I wanted to see you have a
Bunch of confetti in the hat. I’ll tell you what. Next week, I’ll get a sombrero. There you go. But what I’m doing is I’m assigning a value based on my model. I was just confused because you said, I’m going to draw a name on the hat, and then you were like,
And I got this app on my phone. So… Anyways, the inaugural hat pick. Oh, this is so bad. With number 123, it is Ryan Brehm. Should we redraw? Is the bet to make the cut? Because that’s about a coin flip itself. So we re-rolled. We’re going to go Chan Kim.
Chan Kim, number 32. Hey, Chan Kim. That’s a great pick. Chan Kim. Chan Kim. Let’s look up his DFS price here. It’s not very much. Chan Kim, 6,100. Great play down at the board. He’s already in my pool. 200 to one, Chan Kim. You heard it here. We did a random number draw.
He was our second number drawn, but by far the better one over Brandon. What was the inaugural one? We had to get a good one. Yeah. Chan Kim came up pretty high in my model too, so. Let’s roll it. The hat pick. Throw a couple bucks on that hat pick.
We’ll get a real hat. 29th in my model, which is pretty solid. Real hat next week. I’ll just mount it over here with a bunch of pieces of paper in it. We’re going green eventually. Yeah. Sorry. You didn’t like the app. That was the greenest thing I could do.
I just had to laugh at you. All right, join us next week for the Valero Texas Open, not to be confused with the Texas Houston Open, but Valero Gasoline. Connor, are you excited to continue the Texas swing? We have the Masters in two weeks. That’s what I’m more excited about.
A couple more leaps and we’re there. All right. Well, it’s been real. It’s been fun, but it hasn’t been real fun.
