Geoff Ulrich breaks down the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with his DFS strategy and favorite DFS plays of the tournament.
The Cheat Sheet provides DraftKings fantasy golf players with course info, player history and the most noteworthy trends of the week to help them with their roster selections.
Set your DraftKings fantasy golf lineups here: PGA TOUR $1M Sand Trap Special [$200K to 1st]
The Field
This event was transformed into one of four PGA TOUR Signature events for 2024 and beyond. What that means is that instead of the typical 154-man field we used to see at this event (with a three-day cut line), we now have a condensed field of just 80 golfers with no weekend cut. Despite the changes, this event will still maintain some of its original charm.
Players will play on two different courses for the first two days of the event, with each player getting in one round on Spyglass Hill and Pebble Beach (host course). Amateurs will still be part of the proceedings. However, the amateur/Pro-Am portion of the event will last only until Friday, and over the weekend, the pros will dominate the spotlight. The final two rounds will be “pro-only,” and both will be played at the classic Pebble Beach layout.
The glitz and glamour of this event will be cut down significantly (don’t expect to see Bill Murray dancing with old ladies in the crowd), but the tradeoff is the field, which is significantly stronger than normal. Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler are both teeing it up this week, and we have plenty of big names alongside them, including Chris Gotterup, who has now won twice on the PGA TOUR in 2026.
For DFS, this event has produced many longshot winners in the past, such as Nick Taylor in 2020. However, of late, bigger names have dominated since it was elevated to an event. For 2026, it’s likely we’ll see another quality name rise to the top on Sunday.
The Courses
Pebble Beach (main course), par 72, 7,051 yards; Greens: Poa Annua
Spyglass Hill par 72, 7,041 yards; Greens: Poa Annua
As mentioned above, golfers will rotate between just two courses this year, playing each course once prior to the weekend, when the entire pro field will move to Pebble Beach. Even though Spyglass Hill can often play slightly tougher than Pebble Beach, it is more wind-protected, so having your player there on a windy day isn’t such a bad thing. In 2020, the weather made things tough as Spyglass played to a 72.876 scoring average and ranked as the fifth-toughest course on the PGA TOUR, while Pebble Beach also played tough at a 72.55 scoring average and ranked as the eighth-toughest venue on the PGA TOUR out of 41. These courses are short, but when the wind is up, the smaller greens in play make them extremely difficult.
As far as layout goes, the host course (Pebble Beach) is a traditional par 72 with four par 5s and four par 3s. Three of the four par 5s often play under 550 yards in length, and only one par 3 is over 200 yards. Even though there are some longer par 4s, length off the tee isn’t all that essential this week, and the average driving distance for the field is generally 10-15 yards lower this week than the average PGA TOUR event. Many of the holes force players to club down off the tee (either due to doglegs or shorter fairways), and it’s worth noting that three of the past seven winners of this event have lost strokes off the tee for the week, including 2023 winner Justin Rose (-0.4 OTT in 2023).
Despite this being a less-than-driver course, there is still plenty of trouble lurking around Pebble Beach, and players can get in trouble both off the tee and around the green. As a result, a solid approach game and iron play are a must. Six of the top 10 finishers at this event in 2023 gained 2.0 strokes or more on approach.
Around the green, the area can also be vital at Pebble, especially when the wind is bad and causes more missed greens. Six of the top seven players in 2020 gained +1.2 strokes or more around the greens, and winners Justin Rose and Wyndham Clark have gained 2.6 strokes and 1.4 strokes ATG.
Last year, Rory McIlroy relied more on ball-striking as he gained 5.9+ strokes off the tee alone and over 3.3 strokes on approach.
This is also our second event in three weeks where bumpy, Poa Annua greens will be in play. The wet weather allowed players to sink a ton of birdies at Pebble the last couple of seasons, with Clark shooting a 60 in Round 3 in 2024 and winning at -17 (in just three rounds). However, hot and dry weather in California means we may see the greens play much firmer at some point, so fast green surfaces could still make this more of a US Open-style test. Regardless, good West Coast form and experience playing on Poa is a solid plus this week.
One final note: With a course rotation in play, much of how the tournament shapes up can depend on the weather and wind patterns. Wave stacking, but more importantly, course stacking, is something to consider for classic DFS lineups, especially if there is a windy forecast (see below).
2026 Weather Update: The weather at this event can be very hit-or-miss. The first two days look decent this year, with highs in the 60 F range, but there is almost no chance of rain. Wind will be a factor, as it almost always is at Pebble Beach, with Thursday afternoon potentially seeing gusts well above 10mph. Friday looks a little easier from a wind perspective, but the forecast is similar. Sunday has rain in the forecast all day and winds up to 15mph, so it could be a very challenging last day, and players with great short games could rise to the forefront. Spyglass almost always plays slightly tougher from an average stroke perspective, so you’ll want to lean towards players on Pebble for the most part for one-day contests on Days 1 and 2.
Last 5 winners
2025 – Rory McIlroy -21 (over Shane Lowry -19)
2024 – Wyndham Clark -17 (over Ludvig Aberg -16 – three-day event)
2023 – Justin Rose -18 (over Brendon Todd and Brandon Wu -15)
2022 – Tom Hoge -19 (over Jordan Spieth -17)
2021 – Daniel Berger -18 (over Maverick McNealy -16)
Winning Trends
Since 2009, the winner at Pebble Beach (including the U.S. Open) had a T18 or better in one or more of his previous three starts at Pebble Beach — courtesy @Jude_UT4 on Twitter.
Recent form is also important this week: 10 of the past 15 winners recorded a top 10 or better in one of their previous two starts on the PGA TOUR before winning here.
Winners Stats and Course Highlights
2025 Winner: Rory McIlroy
2025 lead-in form (T15-T17-win-T4-win)
SG: OTT—+5.9
SG: APP—+3.3
SG: Total—+13.98
SG: ATG—+0.43
SG: PUTT—+4.2
Good poa-putting stats are always useful as players tend to three-putt more than average at Pebble Beach, while winners also tend to gain a lot of strokes on the greens (nearly as much as on approach). Last season, McIlroy gained well in both areas, but gained over a stroke more putting than he did on approach.
SG: Tee to Green is again a metric to emphasize, although you can look to approaches here more than off-the-tee play. Four of the last five seasons have seen winners gain over 2.5 strokes on approach alone.
From a proximity perspective, Tom Hoge in 2022 gained the most strokes against the field from the 100-125 yard range and that is also the most popular basket for approaches at this event (going off data from past iterations).
Three of the past seven winners at Pebble Beach have lost strokes off the tee, so dominant off-the-tee play is simply not needed, although you don’t want your player missing every fairway either — both Berger (2021) and Hoge (2022) gained over 1.0 strokes OTT and McIlroy last season gained over 5.0 strokes OTT.
The worse the weather is, the more around the green play tends to matter — five of the top-six finishers gained over +1.0 strokes around the green in 2021. 2023 winner Justin Rose was sixth in SG: ATG for the week (2.6)
Finding Values on DraftKings Sportsbook
Odds to win are one factor to think about when picking players (but not the only thing, so be careful putting too much weight on them). This section is going to detail a few of the players who have the best fantasy value compared to their DraftKings Sportsbook odds of winning this week.
Comparables:
– Patrick Cantlay +3800 and $8,900
– Chris Gotterup +3000 and $9,000
Comparables:
– Shane Lowry +6400 and $7,900
– Cameron Young +5500 and $8,100
– Robert MacIntyre +3800 and $8,200
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
HORSES FOR COURSES
(These players have had a lot of success at this event over their career.)
1. Jason Day ($8,900; best finishes: T4-2020, T2-2018): Day has been a perennial contender at this event throughout his career. The Aussie has always putted well on Poa and has landed five top-five finishes at Pebble Beach over the last decade. He comes in playing well and finished T6 at this event last season.
2. Jordan Spieth ($7,900; best finishes: win-2017, 2nd-2022): Spieth has played this event nine years in a row, and has never missed the cut (when it had one). He holds a win and four top-10 finishes at Pebble Beach to his credit. He has struggled here the last two seasons (T39-T63), but his overall body of work is still impressive.
3. Nick Taylor ($7,200; best finishes: win-2020, T14-2022): Taylor won this event in 2020 in dominating fashion and has now finished top 30 at this event in five of the past six seasons. He ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Total Stats at Pebble Beach (since 2019) and won the Sony Open just two starts ago.
4. Patrick Cantlay ($9,400; best finishes: T4-2022, T3-2021): Cantlay finished in the top five at this event in both 2021 and 2022. He’s tended to dominate when placed on these shorter seaside venues, as he also has a great record at Harbour Town Golf Links. He finished T11 at the signature event last year and was T5 in his last start in Palm Springs.
5. Wyndham Clark ($7,600; best finishes: win-2024, T18-2022): Clark posted the course record of 60 at Pebble in his win in 2024. The conditions that season were extremely soft, but Clark, nonetheless, still sets up well for these coastal tests. He also finished T18 in a previous season and is always a threat for a big week at this venue.
Recent Form
1. Chris Gotterup ($9,000, win-T18-win): Gotterup notched his second win of the year in dramatic style when he won in a playoff at TPC Scottsdale. The American has plenty of shot-making ability and is proving he’s ready to be a factor in all of these field events in 2026
2. Scottie Scheffler ($9,000, T3-win-win): Scheffler didn’t win last week, but he again came close. Now that he’s found his putting stroke, he almost seems unstoppable at cracking the top 10 every week he tees it up.
3. Si Woo Kim ($9,800, T3-T2-T6): Kim continued his great run of golf in Phoenix last week with a second straight top-five finish. He ranked 4th in strokes gained approach and ATG stats in Phoenix but was 57th in putting.
4. Jake Knapp ($7,900, T8-T5): Knapp is another young player who is showing improved consistency in 2026. He’s put up back-to-back top 10 finishes now and is up there with the best in the world in terms of his consistency for finding greens, and strokes gained ball-striking at the moment.
5. Pierson Coody ($7,800, T18-T2-T10): Coody continued to play solid golf last week in Phoenix. The American ranked 2nd in SG: OTT in Phoenix and 10th in approach stats, but was below average with the putter.
DRAFTKINGS DFS STRATEGY
GPP Punt Plays:
Patrick Rodgers ($6,600): Rodgers started the season with a great T3 performance at another coastal venue in Hawaii. He has finished Top 10 at Pebble Beach before and has done well at other coastal stops like the RSM Classic. He makes sense as a complete boom-or-bust target in larger fields.
Adam Schenk ($6,000): Schenk had one great start mixed in with three terrible ones. The great start came on the West Coast at nearby Torrey Pines, where he was a leader in ball-striking and gained over 1.5 strokes putting. He’s excelled on coastal courses of late, so I could see him turning the page on a poor Phoenix start quickly at Pebble.
Michael Kim ($6,600) – see below
Core Targets:
Jason Day ($8,500): Day has a great record at Pebble Beach overall, with multiple top-five finishes to his name. I like the way he started the season with a solid opener in Palm Springs, and after seeing another veteran, Justin Rose, win recently, he should be motivated to go for his own win this week.
Akshay Bhatia ($7,300): If you didn’t buy the dip on Bhatia last week, don’t worry, he’s still very cheap. The lefty has played well at other stops out west and is coming off a great performance in Phoenix. At this price, I don’t think being overweight is an issue at all, as he tends to push towards top 10 finishes more often than not when in form.
Contrarian Click:
Ludvig Aberg ($8,300): You can forgive the Farmers missed cut by Aberg, who might have been trying too hard after having to pull out of the American Express with an illness. An extra week off means he’ll be better rested and playing at a venue where he finished T2 in 2024. Three bad starts in a row seem unlikely from the Swede who was playing well before the sudden withdrawal.
MY PICK: Viktor Hovland ($9,900)
Hovland comes into this week off a solid start in Phoenix. He finished T10, gaining over 4.7 strokes on approach. While his driver was a little wild, he performed well around the greens, gaining over 2.5 strokes ATG for the week, which is a great indicator given his weakness as a scrambler.
Hovland’s record at Pebble Beach is also very underrated. He won the US Amateur there in 2018 and then finished T12 at the US Open in 2019, posting the lowest amateur score ever in history. Since then, the best he’s done at Pebble Beach is a T13 back in 2023, but over time, you would figure he eventually breaks through for some big weeks at this event. With his form building and his DraftKings price for DFS still reasonable at under 10k, it’s a great time to target him as a core play. For betting, his outright price of +2700 also looks like solid value.
MY SLEEPER: Michael Kim ($6,600)
Michael Kim is still a player I’m interested in investing in for the early parts of 2026. The former John Deere winner from 2017 had a terrific fall stretch, which culminated with a win in France against a decent field on the DP World Tour. Since then, he’s continued to play solid golf. The 42nd-ranked player in the world dropped in another top 10 in India over the fall and then bounced back last week with a T18 finish.
Kim improved with the ball-striking in Phoenix but again showed upside with the putter, a club that has been consistently good for him of late. This week, he’ll come to a course in Pebble Beach he’s very familiar with as well. Kim attended college on the West Coast and has played Pebble numerous times, posting a T4 in 2019 and top-15 finishes against strong fields in 2023 and 2024. At just 6.6k in price on DraftKings, he makes for a solid core value in DFS, and for betting, his placement prices in the top 10 (+690) and top 20 (+270) markets make him a great ladder betting target for this week as well.