Matt Jones on Mark Stoops: ’85-90% chance’ Kentucky has a new coach next year

Matt Jones opened Monday’s edition of Kentucky Sports Radio talking about how Kentucky will likely have to move on from Mark Stoops.

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This is not Joker Vandy because we scored what did we end up scoring? 34 points. 34 points. Y and there was some hope with Cutter and some of the young receivers, etc. But it felt like Tennessee could have scored 90 points. Is that fair? They could have scored every time they were on the field. Like they punted one time, which kind of blows my mind, but yeah, they could have run out the scoreboard more than 56 points. Even at the end they surrendered and slid. They could have they could have run it up if they wanted to. Yeah. Yeah. They could you have 70 was on the table. Oh, I there was a lot of the game when we kept scoring I was like, “Do you want them to score 70?” They were on pace. There was It was like I was Mark going, “Okay, let’s run it up the middle a little bit. Do you want them to score 70?” Uh, it was awful. It was awful. But I think more important than the specifics of the game was kind of how it played out specifically. And part of this was because it was raining and part of this was because it was at night, but the fourth quarter was empty. Yeah, you were there. How empty are we talking? Uh, very empty. Actually, someone sent me a good picture yesterday. It’s just unbelievable how the only people there wearing orange. I mean, you might find a couple Kentucky fans sitted out, but it just became their stadium for the fourth quarter. It was bleachers and orange. And you can’t hide that. Nope. I mean, you can’t hide that. The players feel that, the coaches feel that. I mean, to whatever extent there was left any Okay, who’s with us? Like, it’s over at that at that point, which Yeah. I mean, that’s an amazing picture. That’s essentially, show that to the camera. That’s essentially all orange. And going in the four fourth quarter, a lot of the emptied out. So you’re you got a lot of football you’re playing in pretty much nearly empty stadium. So then of course online yesterday came the rumors that a change was going to be made. I this is what I’m going to say to people. We we went through this with the cow thing. You there are only like six people you should be listening to. I’m just going to say like no offense to people online. Like if there’s like six people that’ll know and I’m not going to sit here and say who they are but you you you can guess. Yeah. Well, I mean, I will say who they are. You can listen to people from KSR, uh, especially the people that cover football or the folks on this show. You listen to Justin Roland. You can listen to Larry Vaude if his attention’s focused in the right place. You can listen, John Hail for sure. John Hail, although he probably because of his role won’t say a lot. He he wouldn’t be as into Jeff Drummond for sure. And you know the here’s what’s interesting about the anonymous sources. The anonymous sources that know are usually people that don’t have much of a following, right? So I’ve learned on the text machine who’s right is always like random numbers and I can tell whether they’re right kind of by how they word it, you know? Uhhuh. So but the more confident people are online, they’re probably not. So there was this like, oh, it could happen right now. It it did not. Here’s where we are for the future. I know this for there’s rarely I say certainty, I’ll say some certainty. I’d say we’re now at 85 to 90% chance we’ll have a new coach next year. You asked me that two weeks ago before the Texas game, that number would have been like 50 55. It’s it’s 85%. The only way it could be different is if in my opinion is if they were to win three G like if they were to go six and six which would mean beating Auburn Florida and then either Vandy or Louisville, right? Does anyone on this show disagree with that? No. They face six and Do you now think five and seven also means a change? Cuz I do. I do. I guess I’d have to see who they beat to get those five wins. I don’t think the games left on the schedule that impressive outside of Andy. Yeah. See, I think I think there was a time five and seven would have made it close. I don’t think it does anymore. Auburn doesn’t have a coach or excuse me, Florida doesn’t have a coach. Auburn just got win barely got a coach. I mean, Vany and Louisville, you get one of those, that’d be nice, but I don’t think it changes anything unless you beat Auburn and Florida. So, I think there’s a decent chance we come we I do the postgame show Saturday night and we know there will be a change. I think it’s unlikely that there’s a change made here in the middle of the year. Like, but for the first time, I don’t think it’s impossible. I think if they lost to Auburn and Florida and one of those was embarrassing, it could happen. It could happen. Mhm. I think it’s unlikely. It’s not really Mitch’s style. No. But I don’t know that he wants an empty stadium for that Tennessee Tech game. I think that Tennessee Tech game has a chance to be really embarrassing to the program in a lot of ways and they know that. So, I think what happens with Auburn, Florida matters. But I here’s what I I I posted something last night on the KSR Plus and people got I think they took it sort of the wrong way. Our administration’s tonedeaf. I think the administration has said let’s wait a week and let’s see what happens at Auburn. Not that like Auburn could save his job, but Auburn could be the final nail. Ryan, that’s how I look at it. Do you agree? Yeah. They go on the road, they get embarrassed, don’t play well. I think that would maybe be the final nail on the call. At which point then I think they would be completely open to having the discussion of all right how do we end this and starting to have that discussion with Stoops’s people and depending what happens this weekend you’re you could still be a favorite against Florida at home because they’re in a bad spot too. I think they play Georgia. I think that’s this this coming Saturday. Regardless if you don’t win that one that I mean if you even get to that point depending what happens this weekend I I just don’t think that win that’s a win you should have like that’s not something that could save you or change the circumstances. So that’s almost a throwaway game for me. It can only make it worse for you if you lose it. And the reason it’s not a a like, well, it’s out right now is there’s still I I think the people believe around the program there’s still a way to win six games. Now, we can all think that’s ridiculous. But when you’re in that locker room and you’re playing, you can’t think it’s over. No, you still got five games to play. And I think they look at it and say, “Is it insane that we could beat Auburn, Florida, and one of Vandy and Louisville?” Well, I mean, I guess it’s not insane, right? It’s got a small percentage chance you could pull that off, I guess. Well, my season prediction game by game, we’re still right on it. And I had them winning out to make a bowl. So, that’s actually what I thought would happen before the year began. And now the opportunity is right in front of them, even though I do not have the optimism in that right now. Yeah. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but I also think you have to like you can’t just look at your team and be like, “This isn’t going to happen.” So, when we come in Saturday night, you could hear me on the postgame show kind of switch the gear to there’s going to be a change. Well, here’s what I think’s changed. Nobody around UK football believes this can continue at this pace. Even the head coach his words, I don’t think the head coach thinks it anymore either. I agree. Couple things he said after the last couple, especially after the game Saturday night. So, a lot of our conversation over the year has been, well, can they pay it? I think we’re getting to the point that it’s like it’s going to have to be done. So, just the question is only method, right? Do all these other schools getting rid of their coaches early think put a little more pressure on Mitch to make a move earlier than he wants? I don’t think it changes the final decision. It might make them have to announce something early. Yeah. So, I I look at it like this. If they’re gonna make an inseason change, it’ll happen after the Florida game. If they don’t do it after Florida, it’ll he’ll be here till the end of the year. That’s kind of how I see it. Yeah, I would be very surprised if there’s an inseason change, but I don’t think it’s impossible. For the first time, I don’t think it’s impossible. And I think part of it is a little bit these other teams. Yeah. I think because teams, I mean, three SEC teams have let their coach go midyear. Mhm. Three. And maybe Auburn may be another one coming before the season. If we win Saturday, it’ll be four. Think about that. If we win Saturday, Hugh Freeze will be gone the next week, too. So, there you go. And on your scenario of losing the next two and then that Tennessee Tech game. I think about we we’re doing it now. Think of how many times we bring up that Joker game, the Vandy game. That’ll be the game. I I think if it if these next two are ugly, don’t even put them in that position cuz we all have that image. See, that’s that’s 15 years later. You cannot have a moment that Tennessee Tech game. This is part of the reason you should never play these games late in the year, but that’s a noon game at against Tennessee Tech where fans might want to say something. You can’t let that happen, right? And by the way, it also could ruin a relationship that honestly shouldn’t ruin like that. Yeah. That’s why if the next two are ugly almost just get I think you almost have to do it and I think they know that by the way I think they know that. I didn’t think they knew it till yesterday. I now think they know that. So I think Mark Stops is coaching right now just to finish the season. But also now let me say if they win six I think he will keep this job if he wants it. That’d be a hell of a coaching job if he ends up winning six games this season. But I think I used to say, “Well, five will make it hard.” Five is not going to do it. It’s got to be six, and everybody can see what it would take to get to six. Like I said, he he said some things after the game Saturday night that almost like leads me to believe, okay, he’s he understands what’s happening and he accepts the fact that he’s going he’s not going to be here next year. He understands. Yeah, he knows. He feels this fan base. It’s one of his strengths in my opinion. He feels this fan base. I agree with you. and he knows what we think. And I’ll say this, it breaks his heart. I was talking to there’s one media member that I I wouldn’t say Mark and I are close. I know him decently well, but like I haven’t talked to him since July, but there’s one media member that knows him, I think, really well, certainly better than I do. And I talked to them this weekend after the game Saturday and they said to me, and I agree with this, it’s really kind it it kind of breaks my heart, which don’t get me wrong, I don’t feel sorry for Mark Stops. He’s going to make a lot of money and he’s going to be fine. But you know what? When people are sad, they’re sad. Like my weakness in life is also a strength, which is I’m like insanely empathetic to people, even people who are mean to me. Mark’s not been mean to me, but just in general. And I feel bad for him because I know this is like breaking his