The FedExCup Fall schedule heads overseas to Yokohama Country Club for the event formerly known as the Zozo Championship, teeing off in Japan and the Dimers model has identified three golfers with value to win.
This show is powered by https://www.dimers.com/.
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe to the channel for weekly betting breakdowns, best bets, and parlays!
💡 Want more exclusive picks and tools? Join Dimers Pro today and get 50% off your first week or month with code PODCAST.
Dimers.com is a sports betting and culture website focused on covering all things gambling with articles, picks, podcasts and more!
GET MORE 👇🏼
Visit: https://www.dimers.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/DimersCom
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/dimerscom
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/dimerscom/
#bettingwins #sportsbetting #sportsgambling #podcast #sportspicks #bettingtips #pga #pgatour #golf #golfbetting #betting #golfing
It is time to head to the PGA Tour for the Bay Current Classic, the latest event on the FedEx Cup Ball Circuit. This is uh going to tee off on Thursday, October 9th through Sunday, October 12th in Yokohama, Japan at the Yokohama Country Club. This is going to be the first time this venue has hosted the event. It’s a par 71 that measures 7,315 yards with an $8 million purse on the line. There are three returning winners in this field. Reigning champion Niko Etaria who set the 72 hole record last year as well as Colin Morakawa and Hideki Matsuyama. Those two both sit in our top 10 projected golfers for the tournament. Major characteristics of this course include bent grass greens, zoisrass on the fairways and roughs, and wide fairways that should be very favorable to the bombers and long ball strikers. Reports are that the greens will run pretty slow compared to most courses on tour, but we’ll have plenty of bite thanks to the chaotic contours throughout. There’s almost certainly going to be rain in play, so weather is going to have to be factored into your wagers. You want to check the weather reports before each round. And keep in mind that golfers at the beginning of the day and golfers at the end of the day may be playing on effectively a different course. And if it soaks up a lot of water, it’s going to slow these down even more. uh really favoring the guys who can drive the ball because they’re not going to get a lot of love from from the roll or the spin. So key key stats for success here. Um if you’re not tailing just the dimer’s plays, you want to look for golfers who shine on driving distance, who can really hit it far. The fairways are wide, so accuracy is less important. You want guys who can rank pretty highly in strokes gained on approach. Look, once you get, you know, your 250, 300 foot drivers, you gotta you got to get further than that. You got to get even closer. You gotta shorten up the course. You want the guys who play really well with the irons and can get to the green in as few strokes as possible. And of course, you want someone who can putt well, especially on these more challenging greens. And if you find someone who has solid scoring numbers in par fours and par fives as well, you’re going to get a little boost in those guys there. But let’s look at our best bets. Reminder that we cashed a plus 14 with Tommy Fleetwood at the Tour Championship to end the regular season uh or the playoffs of the regular season rather. And we opened up the Pro Core Championship FedEx FedEx Cup fall with a ladder on Ben Griffin as well as cashing the winner without Scotty Sheffler on Griffin at that event. So, we’ll uh pull up our full projections here so that you guys can kind of see what we actually have in the entire predictions and then we will talk us through our key picks. So, if you go on dimers.com, you’ll always find our golf predictions here. You’ll find the tournament information, uh purse, par, yardage, location, all of that. And when you scroll down into our predictions, you’ll have the option to select winner, top five, top 10, or top 20 placements. For the sake of this, we’re just going to look at winners. Maybe I’ll click in and see if there’s anybody lurking around in the placements for value. But you’ll always find anyone with an edge, at least high enough, uh, signified with the flame for value. And what you can see here is Kurt Kittyama and Billy Horchel with an edge. And a little sneaky is also Xander Scuffle here. So, we’re going to walk through these three picks right here and uh hopefully help you find a winner. So, Scuffley is not listed here with a with an edge, but he’s got a very slight one. His 9.1% probability would be fair odds at just about plus 1,000. So, at 1100, you’re getting a little value. Uh he’s the top ranked player in this field for the world golf rankings and he’s our 15th ranked golfer per our dimer’s in-house rankings. There’s certainly a lot to love about Xander here besides just his game, though he’s still chasing his first win since the Open in 2024. But personally, his mother’s side of the family hails from Japan, so there’s a personal connection here. He won the gold medal in the Tokyo Olympics in 2020. He’s a new dad. He was a bright spot for the USA in the RDER Cup just a few weeks ago. One of the few who actually seemed to score positive points. And uh as I mentioned, this would be his first win since his last in a major actually in 2024. He’s participated in every edition of this tournament all six times. And his stats line up pretty well here. He’s the 25th ranked driver in the world. Uh he’s got the 12th ranked approach overall. He has not had a good putter this year, but he’s worth the tail at plus 1100 as he’s one of the most skilled golfers in this field. he could shorten up those greens with his approach as it’s like I said it’s 12 ranked 12th in the field and he should be able to uh shorten up his course and hopefully get some shorter scores. Anyway, next one. Kurt Kinyama 5.0% much bigger value here. He’s plus 2600 on Bet Rivers. Um here’s another American with Japanese heritage. So he’s got another personal connection here. He ended the regular season super hot. five top 25s, including three top 10s, and a win at the 3M Open over his final six events. Had a bunch of cuts in the first half of the season, but none over his final seven uh tournaments. And outside his win, he finished as high as T5 twice this year. He ranks eighth in driving distance. Crushes the ball, first on approach over 200 yards. So if he’s just outside that 200 yard threshold, he can shorten up, find the green, crush the greens in regulation, which means shorter scores. Uh overall, not a great putter, similar to Scuffily, but he tends to minimize his need for those long putts with his sharp approach. You would be fair at plus $1,900, giving us some really sweet value here. for example, a $10 bet. That’s a $70 difference in payout between our fair odds and what you can get him at on the books. He’s worth a look at placements, though uh is there’s no real value there based on our probabilities. However, if you’re betting him to win, you might want to self hedge a bit and play some of those placement markets. Our last uh value pick here is Billy Horchel, 3.2% at plus 7,000. He would be our latter play of the week as he does have an edge in each market of top 20, top 10, and top five. As we’ve talked about before, you want to spread maybe about one unit over a full ladder if that. You don’t want to overexpose yourself on any particular market with one golfer in case they have a bad weekend and you don’t catch any of them. Uh we’re getting some great odds here on Horchel at plus7,000 likely due to the fact that he’s making his first PGA start since April following preventative hip surgery. He did return to the DP World Tour last month uh but he missed the cut. However, he showed his upside when he was still playing in the regular season before surgery, finishing as high as T9 and T4 among a handful of missed cuts. His fair odds here would be just plus 3,000. So, even a couple bucks on a long shot winner here and that’s you a big difference in payout. I mean, the difference in payout here plus 4,000 is a wired discrepancy that his odds even are or his fair odds even would be. So, you know, couple bucks here on horseshoe. Maybe you find yourself in the mix come day four of the tournament. And then these guys are just on my personal radar um that I think are worth a look. Alex Norin, he’s actually here as our second highest most likely winner at 5.1% plus 2200. So just about fair odds there. He’s a pretty frequent dime favorite, so I’m actually kind of surprised not to see him get the nod this week, but he’s about fair, so it’s still worth a play in my opinion. He’s never won on the PGA Tour, but he’s won on the DP tour, including a pair of wins to end the season this year. Uh a field of 78 players here would give him about the best chance than he would have at most win uh most events and 5.1% to win has him at about fair odds as mentioned. One more a little further down here. Uh Michael Thorjornson on my radar just a 1.4% probability to win at plus 3500 odds. Uh but he ranked second in total driving, sixth in distance, first in greens in regulation. He’s really got all the tools if he can overcome his putting deficiencies. He has three finishes of T4 or better this season. Guy who has got some upside in my opinion. I’ll be playing all five of these guys on my card, notably Scuffily, Kittyama, and Horchel from the Dimes model. So, that’s uh that’s our golf preview. You don’t want to uh don’t want to miss this. Like we said, we’ve got these tournament projections for every tournament during the year all season long. Uh all the majors. We also have a really fun head-to-head tool that I’d like to break out uh do a little demo of on an episode one one uh one of these days. So keep an eye out for that. Love to walk you guys through some more golf stuff on dimers.com as it’s really really helpful and very easy to use. Just a reminder that you can get full access to our golf predictions with Dimer Pro. 50% off with promo code podcast at dimers.com/subscription.
