The PGA TOUR schedule rolls on with the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. Patrick McDonald from CBS Sports joins for picks and best bets. Will the winner be at the Champions House again this year? Plus, we go through the most important stats for why past champions have done so well on this course.
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We’ve hit the dog days of summer on the PGA Tour and it’s time to make some picks at TPC Deer Run for the John Deere Classic. The Golf Bet Roundt has to give you the key stats of how the winners have done so well here. There’s a champions house there in the Quad Cities. What does that mean for some potential winners? We’re going to make our picks, predictions, and best bets. Joining me this week, CBS Sports golf writer Patrick McDonald on the golf bet round table. You and I got to make the people some money this week.
It’s good to see you again. It’s been too long. I’m glad uh I’m glad we’re talking again and I’m excited. John Deere Classic, Fourth of July weekend, Champions House, big time stakes this week for FedEx Cup, RDER Cup, all that jazz for these guys. What is the Champions House? We’re going to get to that. Remember, hit that subscribe button on YouTube. We’re going to go through so many numbers and stats. Our our stat team at the PGA Tour has a lot of great nuggets out there. Uh, Ben Griffin, we joke, is basically our new Scotty Sheffller. I was a little surprised to see Jason Day as the number two player on the odds board this week. Definitely interesting. You know, I had a conversation with some colleagues about Ben Griffin yesterday.
We were trying to identify the fifth best player in the world at the moment and we actually Yeah, what an absurd conversation to have. It’s like, oh, who’s number five? We settled on Ben Griffin, though. This guy is playing out of his mind right now. some of the best golf in the world. Two top tens in the majors to go along with those two wins, of course, obviously. And I I love how he’s just keeping a good thing going, right, Chris? He’s playing so much golf right now, the best of his career. Why rest when you could potentially pick up your third win of the season?
Yeah, I I think one thing to note this week when you’re going to pick winners, as we’re going to get into these stats and these picks right now, uh the John Deere Classic is the course on the tour where we find firsttime winners. In fact, you go through the entire list of the season, it’s about 47% of the time, going back to like 1982 where a firsttime winner has won at the John Deere. 47% of the time in the last 35 to 40 years, more than any other event on tour. That’s going to bode well for Patrick’s winner. We’re going to get to that in a minute. Let’s talk about this course. And we I say it every week. I think strokes game putting is a copout because every single winner putts lights out when they win. They do very well. But I I think this is very important that the putter truly means more than the rest of the bag this week because look at what each of these are the last five winners at TPC deer uh deer run and how how they’ve gained their strokes. Look at how much more they’re gaining on the green than anywhere else on the course. You you have to factor that in this week. you do and I think it’s a a real separator this week because of the high green regulation percentage that you see. I’m pretty sure TPCD run the average we were talking before is just above 70%.
Yes.
So, everyone is just clobbering these greens up. They’re hitting 14 greens in regulation day after day, giving themselves a ton of birdie opportunities. And it’s a shootout where the winning score could reach mid 20 unders, potentially even lower than that. And so the one way to separate yourself truly, it isn’t through that approach play which is always talked about. It’s actually on the greens. So that that has to be factored this week. You’re right.
You you mentioned the greens in regulation. That’s the other stat that we want to discuss here because you said 70%. It’s 70% is the average GIR for the field at at the John Deere Classic. But look at what the winners have done the last five years. They’ve been a step above in greens in regulation. These last five winners have hit an average of 81% of their greens. It’s the one stat that our stats team found where all the winners did everything perfectly compared to everything else in their game. Look at all these ranks of these last five winners. The last three in specific. So, everybody’s hitting the green, but like you say, the guys who are winning are hitting more greens because they’re giving themselves more chances. The Straka number is laugh out loud funny. Almost 8 85%. And he I mean he he had to shoot almost 59 in the final round to win two. Remember that he hit the the ball in the water on the 72nd hole to shoot 59.
He he shot 62. A birdie would have made 59. Yeah.
Yeah. It that that is just a bonkers laugh out loud funny 85% number for Greens in regulation. But yeah, I think just any additional chances you can give yourself as opposed to the rest of the field over the rest of the field is just that much more crucial when you really have to pin your ears back, take the governor out of the golf cart and just start running downhill from that first hole.
So, if you’re looking to make your picks this week for John Deere, look at who’s putting lights out, who can putt lights out, and who’s hitting their irons very consistently. You also might want to factor in is your winner in the champions house. What is the champions house? Well, this has become a thing the last three years. Sea, JT Poston, and Davis Thompson. Three Georgia guys, right? They have a champions house. And here it is. The local TV station WQAD went inside the house this last week. The last three winners of this event have been at this champions house. So, here’s the seven guys staying at the champions house. Some are Georgia, some are not. Grayson Sig, Chris Kirk, Ben Kohl’s, Patton Kazire, JT, uh we have Davis Thompson. Sea is not in the field. And we have Denny McCarthy, a mix of Georgia and some other guys in there this week.
You know, I saw Davis talk about this last week at the Rocket and that was my betting cart pretty much for the entire week. I just took those names.
Stay in there
from the champions house. Looked at the odds board. Click, click, click, click. And I mean, look at this thing. This thing obviously I we know these guys aren’t aren’t going to be slumbing it, but this is gorgeous. Great open kitchen. I kind of like how their rooms I feel like the open concept has gone a little too far this day and age in 2025. But I mean, just a a great place to come back, maybe play some cards, hang out with the fellas, unwind a little bit from what is going to be a hot uh week. And TPC Deer Run Sneaky, a pretty difficult walking course
also. And so I think just being able to come back here and unwind is uh is definitely helpful as we’ve seen with the streak of winners from from the Champions House. I can’t believe they got this access. This is uh hopefully the address isn’t leaked. It’s I think J I think JT Poston’s the one who knows the owners of this house and I think okay and and here’s the here’s the thing about this. We can joke about you know oh this is a coincidence yada yada I I think with with how fickle the game of golf is and the little tiny details the mental game that the these guys have to have just the li the little things in your in your head well I’m I’m staying in the champions house I’m subconsciously going to play better this week. I really think it’s little things like this that really go a long way in those little inches in the game where you’re trying to get an edge. To me, this is actually a legit thing.
Yeah, sorry. I was I was laughing at the guy in the mirror there. Wow, look at look at that laundry.
I don’t think anyone’s doing laundry.
Den combo. And yeah, I mean it can be pretty lonely out there on the PGA tour from week to week going from hotel to hotel. you get to kick your feet up a little bit, like be very comfortable in your place away from the golf course, which isn’t always the case week to week on the PGA Tour. This is I mean, look, the craftsmanship, the crown molding. This is this is wonderful. Wonderful stuff.
These of these seven guys, I’m not sure who has kids and who doesn’t, who has a family. I I would be curious to know what the what is the the the aura of the house? Like, do some guys want to party? Do some guys want to go to bed at 9:00? Who’s staying up till 2:00 a.m.? who wants to play cards and and and throw back a few cold ones. Uh I would love to get access of them on a on a Friday night at 9:00 and just then maybe take bets on who’s doing what. Yeah. And it looks like they got a pool out there which uh I mean this guy did not showcase well enough. But all in the over 30 crowd, I believe outside of Davis Thompson, who isn’t isn’t quite the biggest party animal from what I’ve heard. He’ll be in the master suite, I’m assuming, which is
which is this one with the deck outside. Oh, sorry.
I think I I think it I think it’ll be pretty pretty laid-back until Sunday when uh another one of those guys wins this one.
All jokes aside, we’re making we’re making picks here. Uh all jokes aside, Denny McCarthy staying in the house and he’s your winner.
He is. I will always bet on Denny McCarthy on golf courses where like you mentioned before putting matters and I have put so much money into Denny McCarthy over the years where a win this week would probably get me back not even close to even not not even close.
Dude, you and I are the same way. I I I have been hammering Denny McCarthy is going to win. Denny McCarthy is gonna win all year long
and Will has been talking me out of it. And so far he’s right because until somebody wins, and I’m not even talking about the Tommy Fleetwood curse. I’m talking about guys who, you know, aren’t even getting to that level that that we saw Tommy Fleetwood just collapse two weeks ago. Denny McCarthy’s just not there yet. And the fact that it hasn’t happened, I am starting to feel like it’s not I’m not going to do it until he wins because he’s burned me so many times and I’m I’m just waiting for the breakthrough. But it has to be at a place like this, like you say.
That’s so fair. And the the one maybe thing I’m worried about is Denny has been vocal about how he likes difficult golf courses more. And
this is not it.
It it doesn’t really make sense with his game. You think, okay, he’s a fairly accurate driver. He’s a very good wedge player and he he makes a ton of putts. A birdief fest should be right up his alley. But then you look at him on long golf courses, Chris, and his game somehow translates. Like he had the lead at Tory Pines for a lot of that Sunday. He played well at Quail Hollow again this year. I think he has three straight top 10 finishes there. He plays great at Mirfield Village somehow.
He shot 60 there two years ago.
Yeah, it’s like how does
I’m trying to think of Travelers. I’m sorry, but yeah, you’re right. Well, thank god. I mean, thank God he just played great at the Travelers, too, with the T12. So, I’m hoping that form
can come into this week. His iron play has been much improved. I know he’s working really hard at that. So, if he can make those chances from say 25, 20 feet, more like 10 to 15 feet this week with how he putts it, I think he’ll finally get that one.
I mean, new winners on tour happen all the time. And I’m glad you’re sticking to your guns on Denny because when he wins and he’s going to win. Uh you’ll be on him and I wasn’t and I’ll say I I fell off of him. Uh my winner is I’m going with the past winner and JT Poston. If you’re going to look at his results in 2025, you could say he’s not playing the kind of golf he was playing the last couple of years. But I love the fact that this guy has had 13 straight rounds at this course under 70. He clearly loves the place. And if the price of 30 to1 I think is fair. Uh if if we’re going to be adjusting the scale, I think 30 to1 for a player who’s won here who knows how to win. He’s staying in that house. I I I think these are the kind of things that spark players like him to play better because he he needs a spark. He’s staying in the house. He’s won here before. He shoots lights out here. There’s that spark. I I think this is the kind of chance he has. I do love Poston. He’s a guy who when he sniffs at Chris the winner circle or contention, he he tends to find it, which uh
and he kills it.
It’s a great skill to have.
Yeah. Uh you you may you gave me a pick. Uh it was very interesting. Everyone take note of Patrick’s first round leader at 80 to1. Why is it Lee Hodes?
So here’s my logic, right? You asked me for for three selections. I figure, okay, we’ll go full tournament winner. Uh Thursday, it’s a holiday weekend. Some people might just be wanting to sweat Thursday, right? They have it on. They might not watch Friday or Saturday. They’ll tune back in on Sunday after the festivities are over. Yeah. Thursday, Lee Hodgees, first round leader. Had an injury in the middle of the season. I think he withdrew from uh what was it? The Cognizant.
Took some time away. Came back slowly but surely returning to that ball striking prowess that he had towards the beginning of the year. as you see the WM Phoenix Open where he played great. T9 in Canada, opened last week with a 65. He had a 63 there in Canada on Saturday. Opened with a 66 at this golf course last year also. Just needs the putter to come around. And I was talking to someone.
Lee Hodgees just sounds like a John Deere Classic winner. A guy who plays well at the John Deere Classic.
Played well at the 3M Open a couple years ago. Won there. That’s not too far away, I think. I’m not a geography major and and so all that to say at 80 to1 I think he could do a lot worse than Lee Hodgeges.
I’m surprised that this isn’t higher than that and I think if he does well if he hits that first round lead I’m thinking like a Lee Hodgeges excavator like the John Deere the the Hodgeges excavator
or the Hodgeges forklift. I don’t I don’t know. Maybe maybe that could be a thing. Uh I’m going for a top 10 uh for my prop. We were gushing over Michael Thorenson a year ago, 8 months ago about how great this kid was going to be and and he’s going to be great. We’ve the chatter has has cooled down on him and and rightfully so because he he hasn’t been at the top of the leaderboard consistently, but he is starting to get back into that form for this field. What he did last week at T4 at Rocket, he’s the kind of guy who seems like he can go really low on low courses. you want to shoot 25 under par seems right up his alley. Uh I love that he has two great finishes here. Young guys need confidence. They need to have that feeling in their mind that oh I’ve played well here. I can do it again. Second place a T7 for a top 10 here. I love almost four to one odds.
I love that too. And healthy again, right? Was a WD at the Chuck Schwab came back. JJ Djakovic now on the bag. And I I love the upside on this guy, Chris. I think it’s a great pick.
All right, we got two more pops to get here. I I wanted to get Ryan Gerard in my card. I didn’t. I’m glad you did. Why do you like him for It’s a top 30. I mean, that’s not hard to do.
No, not at all. Top 30 at plus 125. Also,
you look what this guy has done really ever since uh the PGA Championship where he popped in the first round, parlayed that into a top 10 finish. He’s fourth in this field over the last three months from TA Green. I think that gives him such a high floor. The putter is obviously what has been holding him back. He easily could be a guy who has finished the last month inside the top 20 if it wasn’t for that putter. He puted these greens well his first time around, finished inside the top 30, then I think he’ll do enough on the greens to squeeze inside the top 30. And if he has one of those career career weeks on the greens, Chris, I think he could be one of those first time winners, too. He needs to putt average. And for a top 30, putt average. Make the cut number one.
Doesn’t matter how you make the cut. Make the cut. Okay. And then putt average. He can easily get in the top 30 for every single thing about his all-around game that you just said. That’s why I kind of want to get him on my card, too. I was looking at a very interesting market. Uh the top South Korean market. It’s a threeman market. The first reason why Sunjm being plus 150 against Tom Kim who we know is not quite on his game right now. And Siu Kim is the worry here. He’s the one I’m worried about. He’s the favorite. But Sunjm has specific golf courses where he just does well. This feels like one of those for Sunj. Uh again, if it’s a threeman market, he has a good finish here. He’s been top 20 here multiple times before. And Sunj is the kind of player who you forget about him and but then he goes and goes lights out for a little while and you go, “Oh, there’s Sunj.” Yes, it’s been a long time. Winning a golf tournament is an issue, but I don’t need him to win. I don’t even need him to be in the top 30, per se. I need him to beat two players, and I think he can do that this week in a three-man market.
I love Sunj every week, no matter what. I know the iron play,
the iron play has not been great in 2025, but I know
the team is confident that it’s starting to turn the corner. So, if it does this week,
he obviously has the game to to pull this off and maybe even win. All right. So, we every week we do something. It’s called a DraftKings parlay. Build your own DraftKings parlay. We usually do it with like a Scotty Sheffller or A Rory and Moroy. But since we have a new Scotty Sheoffller, right, on the on these events, Ben Griffin is our new Scotty Sheffler. Go check out all these DraftKings markets. They have Ben Griffin parlay him with this player for this market. We’re going to do a Ben Griffin top 10 parlay. Choose him to be in the top 10 with They gave us four options here. Siu Kim, who we just discussed, Davis Thompson, who we haven’t talked at all about, uh Chris Goddup and Aldrich Potgeer, who’s tough because he just won. If you had to pick one of these four, which would you do for a Ben Griffin top 10 parlay? Yeah, you don’t need to talk much to me about building a parlay. So, I I do love this. And I think I have to go with the defending champ, Davis Thompson. Yeah, the the putter has been very frustrating for him in 2025, which is a bummer for me because
at the beginning of the year I had him on my US RDER Cup team. I’m I’m still not I’m still not losing all my hope.
Well, he lo he wins this week, he might be in a conversation with 40 other guys.
He’s a big Yeah, literally an American does something. It’s like US Rder Cup.
Oh my gosh.
Uh so I think Thompson, you talked about the good vibes of the Champions House. He has hopefully the California King underneath him this week in the master bedroom. Uh he’s obviously put these greens very well in the past. Maybe that’s all that needs to flip for him because ball striking wise I’m fairly certain it’s the best approach season and the best off the tea season of his career. It’s just that putter that is really holding him back.
So I’ll go with uh Davis Thompson
and and it looks like he is playing better. You say Denny McCarthy really enjoys the tough courses. I to me it’s Davis Thompson enjoys these easier courses where his game is so consistent from tea to green. You keep getting chance after chance after chance. Something’s bound to to go right cuz you look you look at his schedule he struggles at the majors the tough golf courses struggles at Memorial. Um RBC Heritage is up and down. Good at the truest. So I mean which was you know it was a birdie fest for most of the week. Um, I could see that and I I agree. David Davis Thompson is the kind of player. There’s so many players on tour I feel like where they win and then you completely forget about him because they’re not a hot name. They’re not a hot topic. Maybe they’re not at the top of the leaderboard. There’s other things to talk about and then all of a sudden they play well again and it’s like, “Oh, there he is. I forgot how good this guy was.” Davis Thompson fits that mold to me to a tea. And I look at everybody else. Poter, I’m not touching him. Got her up, I’m not touching him because he’s he’s just been so unknown lately. And Siu Kim, I don’t know how you feel about Siu Kim. I can’t bet on Seu Kim because I can’t figure out the guy out and I have no idea where to play play him at what course because I feel like the guy doesn’t have a course style that’s that suits him. So, I’m staying away from him too. I agree with Thompson.
Yeah, I think Sew’s uh I I like him on more difficult golf courses just because like you mentioned, you don’t know what seaw you’re going to get and you also don’t know what putter he’s going to use. It seems like every week it’s either the broomstick, a new grip, or whatever. So, yeah, sticking with Thompson here.
All right, that’s our DraftKings parlay. Patrick McDonald, CBS Sports Golf Writer. Anything else you wanted to say? Where can we find you? Where’s your work? Give us all that.
Yeah, you can find me on socials at P McDonald CBS. Uh, anything digital for CBSports.com, CBSportsHQ on your smart TV. If you’re watching the news, turn us on. I’ll unfortunately be on there. You You’ll have to hear me talk and uh see my face. But yeah, anything CBS sports related and golf, I’ll be your guy.
And when Denny McCarthy gets his first victory, someone’s doing a victory lap and it ain’t me. Can’t wait. [Music]
3 Comments
What is the difference between a Ben Griffin top 10 parlay, and just saying which of those 4 will do the best
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