On today’s show, Ryan looks into the the 2025 Rocket Classic — a course preview and breakdown of Detroit Golf Club, opening lines, outright picks, the model top 10, horses for courses, past winners, first-round leader picks and more.
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[Music] hey everybody welcome to the press welcome to another week i’m Ryan Balry great to have you with us we had a very successful Travelers Championship hopefully he hit on Keegan Bradley we talked about him a couple times during this show and also on our writeups over at golfnet.com but last week is last week we’ve got the Rocket Classic this week we’re in Detroit Rock City so let’s get into things this week on the PGA Tour we’ll have another show tomorrow it’ll be the audio only show that we’ve kind of gotten ourselves into the habit of doing we’ll talk very briefly about the LPGA event they’ve got a team event this week called the Dow Championship up in Michigan so we’ve got a double event in Michigan this week there’s also the uh Epsur after being in Michigan the last couple weeks and we’ve got a live golf event this week in Dallas so their ninth event of the year we’ll talk about that we’ve got a senior major in the US Senior Open we’ve got that to talk about so we got a lot on the docket but we focus on PGA Tour in this episode so let’s get right into it rocket Classic used to be known as the Rocket Mortgage Classic uh it’s now been shortened to Rocket uh because there are so many like Rocket products that that are out there whatever it names don’t matter detroit Golf Club which will be renovated after this week they’ll have it ready for next year’s event this is a Donald Ross course this club actually dates back to 1899 they they had two co courses at one point uh and this Ross one came along kind of became the the big deal right uh we are in Detroit Michigan opened in 1916 the Ross property or portion of the property set par 727370 off the tea $9.6 million which I I mean I know I’m of a certain age 42 years old not too long ago a tournament like this was like $6 million and now it’s almost $10 million 1.728 million of the winner 156 player field four qualifiers and really cool stories the last couple of years coming out of the Monday qualifiers they have no shot to win and that that’s okay but uh some really cool stories coming out of those things and we have a decent field here you know it’s it’s definitely not last week where you have 47 of the world top 50 you got like a dozen and that’s okay that you know Tony Fenel pulled out one of the higher ranked players he’s no longer involved in the tournament but still a pretty solid field headlined by the likes of Colum Morawa and Patrick Kentlay and Keegan Bradley and Sew Kim Luke Clinton’s 35 to1 we’ll get into a lot of these guys over the course of this episode so let’s start at the top of the table we just mentioned a number of these guys who are kind of the headliners this week colin Morawa is 12 to1 he has really struggled with putting in the last several weeks uh it seems like he’s been spending some conscious time in the buildup to this tournament trying to figure out what’s going wrong with the putter what he can get better we’ll see what happens there you’ve got Patrick Kentlay at 14 to1 who seemed to have a nice showing for himself uh at the Travelers Championship which of course he loves it’s a tournament he loves so that that feels like a good thing you know playing well at a place you like if you play poorly at a place you like something’s gone horribly wrong play pretty well at a place you like feels somewhat affirming ben Griffin who’s having one of the best years on the PGA Tour this year i mean it’s not Scotty Sheffler and it’s not Rory Mroy ben Griffin’s right in there along with Seep Straa having a great year uh he’s 18 to1 for a reason i think that’s too short of a price for this guy i realize he’s playing great i realize he had a great US Open i realize he’s pretty much in everything lately but that is a that is just not a price I’m willing to pay especially when right behind him is Keegan Bradley at 20 to1 not playing Keegan Bradley at 20 to1 either this is a go low contest right you’ve got to get in the 20s under par somewhere between 20 and 25 under par is going to win this thing greens are typically pretty receptive pretty soft they they weren’t as soft last year which I thought was interesting and they probably won’t be as soft next year after the renovation they’re they’re going to be a little bit firmer that’s just the way the ground settles but this is a pretty receptive ballpark in terms of fairway width softness run out all of those types of things really do tend to work in the favor of the player that all said Keegan Bradley putted out of his mind on Sunday in particular and over the course of the week that was why he won the golf tournament other than Tommy Fleetwood letting him have it to a degree but Keegan Bradley putted out of his mind that is not what he typically does i don’t expect a repeat performance in that regard i would expect a significant regression here even though I think he should be on the Rder Cup team as a player uh I I expect a regression cam Young 22 to1 that that train is starting to leave the station yet again again I’m not going to bet a guy who’s never won the PGA Tour at 22 to1 you’re just not catching me on that number matsyama 28 to1 been a total letdown this year after the opener no thank you see Kima 35 seems more interesting and he’s not playing that well davis Thompson you can’t convince me to bet um unless it’s the John Deere Classic but okay if if you’re interested in such things I think there’s going to be some money on Windham Clark this week at 35 to1 just given that he started to maybe snap out of whatever mental anguish funk he’s been in for the last two months i’m not going to bet him i I think he’s two bad shots away from snapping a driver over his knee a B M Batia Harry Hall Luke Clanton Matt Fitzpatrick Minwe Max Grman what an interesting weird mix of guys all on the same number harry Hall has been playing great consistent golf i would encourage you to bet him at 40 to1 luke Clinton had a good showing for himself as a sponsor exemption of the Travelers 40 to1 kind of hard again to kind of go in the Cam Young theory do you bet a guy on this number who’s never won before and frankly has a limit relatively limited number of starts certainly is a guy who’s getting paid at the end of the day limited number of starts but he is playing really really good golf is really capable of destroying a golf course like this where you got to go low i can see it i’m gonna stay off of Fitz and Grayerman no thank you no men woo for me although I I could buy the argument of inspiration seeing as though his sister won her third career major at the women’s PGA championship in Texas so maybe he’s like “Hey I got to keep up.” I don’t know got her rip 45 to1 no keith Mitchell 50 to1 now you have my attention i I think that is deep enough to make it interesting for Keith Mitchell certainly a first round leader play coming in if you look at the weather forecast it’s really favorable to his portion of the draw i think you got to like Alex Smallley he’s a coarse spit horse for course i think you got to like Brian Gerard this is a golf course very similar to which on he won last year on the Corfairy Tour that kind of tournament where you got to get to 20 to 25 under par relatively open playing spaces really just designed to go low i think this is a Ryan Gerard special ricky Fowler pass winner here rasmus Hoygard playing pretty well i mean I’m not loving that number steven Joerger I do love that number i really do love that number he is a horse for course he’s playing pretty well lately bombs the crap out of the ball likes to go low i I can buy in with Steven Joerger i can buy you on Alex Norin um again same thing tommy Fleetwood syndrome you don’t win in this country eventually you’re going to get caught un know you know people are just not going to bet you to win golf tournaments if you just don’t win over a decade i’m sorry but Stephen Joerger does really interest me at 60 now before we get to the rest of the field let’s talk about our model top 10 we do this every single week over at golfnet.com been doing it for more than five years now going back to the pandemic believe it or not and in that time span this this model’s really done well for us we give out the top 10 because usually there’s not a lot of surprises and you don’t see many here as we we go over it but the rest of the field is available over at golf newset.com colum Morau is number one sure keegan Bradley two Patrick Canley three four Ben Griffin five Keith Mitchell six Luke Clinton seven Cam Young 8 Harry Hall nine Max Grman 10 none of those are particularly surprising and they’re all guys that are pretty short this week you know nobody’s shorter than 50 to1 there so we go a little bit deeper right look at a Taylor Moore for course kind of guy i saw him 80 to1 earlier in the week this is an offshore number probably took some money on him chris Kirk’s a guy I’m going to play this week and I am probably going to play Jake Nap this week they’re both 75 to1 at this particular book shot for a good number i’ve seen Kirk at 80 and 85 i’ve seen Nap shorter than this and longer than this depends on what you’re looking for and whether you’re trying to fade him or or go with him obviously I’m trying to go with him here he hasn’t done a whole lot lately but this is the kind of golf course that should line up with his game michael Thorbjornson I feel the same way but I’m not going to bet him this week torbjorn Olison could be an interesting player here but I I will pass on him as well michael Kim remember just a few months ago i mean he and he’s still playing great golf but he was like 40 to1 when the the streak was running hot and it felt like a win was imminent maybe this is the kind of week where he does it again i mean his one win is in the Midwest it’s a the John Deere Classic it’s on a course kind of like this long but soft i could be interested in that uh Rio he said cooled off max Holm is playing this week i mean he’s in trouble in terms of getting to the playoffs but uh Rico Ho is kind of interesting at 90 to1 to me davis Riley is going to get some play this week i I will not be partaking i could be interested in Lee Hodgeges at this number he seems to like the Midwest upper Midwest of golf this is obviously that not a ton of water in play which is what he seems to like interestingly enough but I I I might get behind Lee Hodes as a a sp maybe on a first round leader bet here this week other than that I’ll probably take a pass on everybody i still high on Yes spencer but we’re not betting him right now mark Huber won 125 to1 you’ll see later he comes out as a course fit i’m kind of interested in him but I feel like the ship has kind of sailed on a big win for him nico Chavaria 135 to1 can kind of come out of nowhere tristan Lawrence 150 to1 you know do you find something of value there from the US Open and you just kind of carry it over with him i mean I I don’t think this is a course that really suits him suits what he plays to but I I could be wrong adam Hadwin though at 160 I’m probably going to bet him he’s a horse for course i know he’s a long shot a lot of weird things can happen this week we We had eight signature events this year we had eight different winners we’ve had very few players win multiple times and what are the four of them so far this year with 29 events out of the year so this has been a year dominated by the two best players and everybody else gets a little sliver of the pie that that’s winning basically i think you could see an Adam here surprise bo Hustler’s of course spit he’s interesting quaid Cumins dropped down to the cornfairy tour last week because he wasn’t in the Travelers Championship had himself a great week uh he you know when he’s had those opportunities to kind of drop down to not worse competition but different competition he’s been doing well so maybe there’s some confidence to be drawn from that isaiah Cinda another cornfy tour grad did kind of well on this type of setup uh in Mexico obviously way more wide open but similar in length where you could just kind of hit it anywhere you can’t hit it anywhere here but you can almost hit it anywhere here carl Phillips i I really wish he had raised his game more after Puerto Rico but that just has not materialized yet and then we got about 100 guys on these lists 156 players in this field there are a lot of players in this field that not they don’t deserve to be there but they’re just not a threat to win you look kind of this group and you start to kind of let your mind race about all right well do you go to a a Doug Gim do you think about a a Web Simpson who is a course fit here do you think about uh Garrick Higgo who’s at times demonstrated this year that you know not a total fluke to have won on the PGA Tour chris Ventura 325 to1 actually kind of intrigues me a little bit i I think you can get him longer than that but 325 to1 is interesting to me because he likes these kinds of courses where you can just kind of bang it around almost consequencefree and turn into a birdie fest i I think you can like some of the corn tour guys here this week some horses for courses is worth mentioning cam Davis obviously a two-time winner here cam Young has done well here chris Kirk Patrick Canley to a degree so Morawa to a degree as well but I’m just not betting Colin Morawa at 12 to1 a guy who hasn’t won on the tour in what three years or something like that so that’s that’s going to be a no for me course fits we did mention a number of these guys earlier um Adam Hamwin is probably your best course this is about a 34 or 3664 golf course on the PGA tour in terms of strokes gained putting percentage strokes gained tea green percentage i like that breakout for top 25 finishers and then compared to players when they finish in the top 25 i think it gives you a fair idea of what a course demands and how players might respond to it when they’re playing well again double score when they’re playing well just because they’re a course fit doesn’t mean they’re going to play well so that there’s important things to note here but Hadwin Mitchell Bo Hustler Ben Griffin Mark Huard again I’m not betting Ben Griffin 18 to1 to bet win this tournament i I just can’t do it i can’t in good conscience do it some hot hands guys with multiple top 15 finishes at least two in the last six PGA Tour events played because we had an oppo uh Keegan Bradley Patrick Kentlay Ben Griffin Harry Hall Alex Smallley so we we did talk about Alex Smallley playing well and a course fit interesting number patrick Kentlay I’m not going to bet keegan Bradley I’m not going to bet at 20 ben Griffin I’m not going to bet at 18 so Harry Hall and Alex Small are probably your only players going to come out of this that might be interesting to look at past champions here cam Davis twice bryson Desambo in 2020 when he just beat it around hit it out the rough and hit it close in the uh in the pandemic year tony Feno who withdrew and then Ricky Fowler in in the comeback win on the rain delayed day where he wound up getting better of Colum Wara i don’t think Ricky Fowler is in a great position these days playing golf-wise but uh you know some people love betting him now we look at the short-term form we’re looking at last 10 PGA Tour events played and we’re looking to get a sense of players who are doing well in one of three categories ideally all three strokes gain total quality strokes gain which is strokes gain total multiplied by the quality of your competition is measured by the official World Golf ranking points for the winner that week and then strokes gain on the approach so strokes gain total we’re looking for 1.2 strokes gain in the aggregate per round in the last 10 events played whatever of those that you did play we got a relatively long list here ben Griffin Bryce Garnett who’s not getting a lot of action but the action he’s getting is good ben Martin Keegan Bradley ben Martin’s also kind of a course fit by the way i didn’t have him in the graphic but Ben Martin is a kind of course fit i I wouldn’t bet him to win but number is probably intriguing egan Bradley Matt Wallace who I I think is probably worth a look risk God and I say that because I kind of think there might be some that’ be tenuous parallel with Myrtle Beach with with the Dunes it’s not really the same but I keep seeing the same names between the two so there maybe there is some kind of connection of what you see off the te uh that’s I’ve never been on the ground at Detroit Golf Club so I don’t know the answer to that will Gordon Mark Hubard course fit playing pretty well heath Mitchell course fit playing pretty well antoine Rosner Harry Hall playing great Vince Whey Kirk Kittyama then if you’re not on this list and the next one with quality strokes game it means you’re playing weaker competition so these guys are playing well that aren’t on this next list they’re probably playing the weak field so the guys that are on it are playing strong fields ben Griffin Keegan Bradley Tristan Lawrence Matt Wallace who I think could be an interesting play see Wu Kim Harry Hall and then take that two list part and put it to the side and here’s kind of your fail safe if you’re gaining six strokes on the approach on average per round in these 10 events whatever that you played you probably you’re probably doing something right it’s just something you’re doing wrong and that something you’re doing wrong is either driving it poorly or putting it poorly but those things can be corrected driving can be corrected pretty quickly putting is variable right so sometimes if you’re bad you know we know who bad putters are Bill Grio uh but you may be able to have a great week as a putter just like he and Bradley did and suddenly turn that into a PJ tour to win so those guys on this list Joel Damon Victor Perez Doug Gim who’s a 180 to one shot it’s kind of interesting a Beta who really improved his putting in portions of the year especially earlier in the year but has been just hideous lately million agree on Ben Griffin so of the folks that there’s one guy on all three lists and that’s Ben Griffin who’s 18 to1 that’s why he’s 18 to1 not specifically this graphic but because he’s playing great in the aggregate on the approach he’s doing it all right he’s winning look um I’m I’m just not gonna bet up at that you can have a great time i hope he wins for you now let’s look at our strokes t green leaders with low variance so we’re looking at guys are doing well stroke tether green last 10 PGH events and relatively low variance in those numbers from event to event from dot plot to dot plot i want to see guys who have a relatively smooth curve well higher smooth curve not so much guys who are like this right we want consistency in this in this particular exercise so Keegan Bradley Alex Smallley Patrick Kentlay Siu Kim Ben Griffin Brian Gerard they all fit the list we’ve all talked about them a ton not surprising right i tend to reward some degree of consistency when I’m looking at a player that I want to bet that’s 60 to1 or less right if you’re a consistent player and you’re 50 or 60 to1 I’m going to slam the table with some money and that’s why I’m betting Ryan Jordan this week then let’s look at top 20 percentages in the last 50 events on the PGA Tour whatever percentage of those you played if you have 40% or greater we don’t have many of those guys in the field this week it’s going to be hard to find derivative bets using this tool this week you know we had last week we had two columns of guys on this graph this week we have four colum Moraua Patrick Cane and Bradley Ben Griffin so again same num names keep coming up over and over again none of those guys you’re going to want to bet on a top 20 you’re going to bet them on a top 10 so maybe that’s where you go with this this graphic this week if you want to get that derivative world all right first round leaders we uh we do like FRL plays around here this is probably Keith Mitchell country Keith Mitchell season he does not have a tremendous history in this event so maybe you want to look toward Alex Norin who does well in this tournament and does well in the first round in general maybe you want to look at a Taylor Moore who does well this tournament how about a Davis Riley or an Adam Hadwin if you don’t want to play Adam Hadwin to win at 165 or whatever or Davis Riley to win at 100 maybe you play them as first round leader plays and you see what you get with all of that with all that said that is everything that we’ve got for this week on the Rocket Classic it’s a good tournament but last week I felt like I had a number of feelings I felt strong about i felt like Keegan Bradley was going to have a good week obviously we we talked about Scotty Sheffller’s shocking third round aside he he otherwise could have won this tournament we talked about Tommy Fleetwood who could be a potential great fit and then we’re like “Oh well he doesn’t win in this country.” And lo and behold that that holds up again russell Henley was a guy to talk about he was there some guys that we didn’t talk about Jason Day was was a key part of it so you’re going to get surprises week to week i think you can get some surprises here i mean him Davis has two PGA Tour wins they are both in this event they both came out of nowhere right um got to keep that in mind nate Lashley won this thing out of nowhere and turned into a multi-year PGA Tour career right i think you could have a surprise winner here again this week again I would pine for guys who played pretty okay and are coming off the Corinth tour i liking Ryan Gerard i I kind of want to get into a Chris Ventura 350 to1 325 350 to1 i think could be an interesting number especially as like a first round leader then you only have to sweat it for one round and then you might get paid off on it so uh there’s a there’s a lot of ways to go here this week this is not a high conviction week for me i think the field is too This year has been too strange with too many one-time winners too many I don’t know just stuff it it’s kind of hard to see a lot of trends that I like here this week that said I’m going to throw some money at it we’re going to have a little fun with it i hope you do too we’ll be back with another show audio only tomorrow talk about everything else going on this week dow Championship on the LPGA their team event US Open live Dallas got the Italian Open on the DP World Tour we got the Memorial Health Championship uh in Springfield Illinois at Panther Creek on the Cornferryy Tour we just put our latest episode of the Road to French Lick we’ve reached more than a million people already this season watching that show if you want to keep up with the Corn Fairy Tour we’ve got guests galore uh this week got Jackson Buchanan and University of Illinois head men’s golf coach Mike Small if you want to watch this show and you’re not watching it already you’re catching audio you can watch the show on our YouTube channel Golf Newset you can watch it on Golf Newset TV which is available on Zen Free Life Sports and Freecast you can also watch it on our apps for Amazon Fire and Roku TV then if you catch this as a video show and you would prefer to listen to it as an audio show well you can do that too on our YouTube channel Golf Newset Radio or wherever podcasts are available join Golfnewset for $40 for one year $70 for two years or $100 for three years over at golfwnet.com get access to everything we do all the in-depth stuff that we talk about here in the slides but even more depth than that which is kind of frightening sometimes but it is a lot and we’ve got a lot of resources there for you at golfwnet.com i’m Ryan Baly thanks so much for spending some time with me we’ll be back with another show tomorrow good luck with all your bets this week we’ll see you next time on the press [Music]
