Motor City hosts the Rocket Mortgage Classic this week & all eyes are on Cam Davis (80-1) to see if he can get his third win in Michigan!
The odds are stacked against Tony Finau (40-1), but it won’t be an easy fight against Collin Morikawa (16-1) and “Captain” Keegan Bradley (18-1). Our PGA Tour experts are back for another week to keep you updated on all the Tour news, preview the Detroit Golf Club & share their top 2025 Rocket Mortgage Classic picks & predictions!
Analysts Bo McBrayer & Conor Coughlin share their top PGA Tour bets for the 26th stop of 2025 on “The 19th Hole (S5 E26).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
08:11 News Niblick: PGA Tour News Update
08:31 Tommy Fleetwood Chokes at the 2025 Travelers Championship
13:58 Keegan Bradley Wins the 2025 Travelers Championship
18:56 Minjee Lee Wins the 2025 LPGA Championship
22:10 Caddie Notes: Detroit Golf Club Breakdown
27:15 Club Twirls: 2025 Rocket Classic Picks & Predictions
27:40 The Favorites
36:12 The Mid-Range
41:24 The Longshots
51:54 The Hat Pick
52:28 Plugs + Outro
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🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
good evening ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the nineteenth hole we are live on in between media just now we are sports we are lifestyle we are everything in between it was a pretty awesome finish to last week’s tournament unfortunately it wasn’t all that exciting for one tommy fleetwood Captain America took it home. We’re moving on. We’re on to the Detroit rock city motor city. It’s going to be fun. Lots of scoring, lots of birdies, maybe some excitement on the course. Pretty decent field. We’re going to hit it right after the drop here. Oh, look who it is. I got to switch these around here again. Look at that. Oh, yeah. You don’t want to be a bow. Trust me. I mean, either way, I’m just happy to. Although we did have an arborist come out and trim up some of our overgrown cypress trees that belong to our neighbors. They were leaning on our pergola, dropping a bunch of nuts into the pool and pool equipment and squirrels were dropping shit everywhere. stuff everywhere um shout out to memphis tennessee west tennessee we are syndicated on that radio station we love west tennessee connor how we doing today we did you feel good about that uh illustrious first victory for tommy fleetwood oh wait yeah I was uh I was watching that on pins and needles just knowing that uh when he inevitably fell off I was gonna have to hear it from you all night so Hey, I was actually pulling from him. I texted you that morning that I was actually pulling for Tommy because I didn’t have a dog in the fight. My guys all sucked last week. Unfortunately, we have weeks like that. Not very often. This show is generally really good at winning money at betting golf, which is why you’re all here in the first place. Yeah, no, it was a heartbreaker, man. I know we’ll talk about it more, but yeah, it’s too bad. He’ll get one. He’ll get one. He will. Did you have anything going other than a little Tommy Fleetwood love, maybe some Captain America? I know my co-host on the betting pros podcast, Pat Fitzmaurice, had himself a nice thirty five to one Keegan Bradley ticket. And he also used him in the one and done against me for the tune of three point six milli. That one hurt. I had a three point. I had a four million dollar lead on the season and it went. Yeah, it was good win for him. So, actually, I was on Keegan. I was on Tommy, as I have been. I was on Harris English, of all people, and I was all over Jason Day. So, I did okay. I would have been a lot happier. You had it smothered, as they say. Yeah, no, it was a good week. The analytics didn’t lie. I think I got the model right last week. and I just ignored my model and went with my gut which didn’t turn out too well but we’re on to detroit michigan that’s that’s where it’s at right detroit’s in michigan yeah it’s one of the most forgettable courses but uh yeah we’ll talk about that too are you drinking anything I got a nice one liter bottle of kirkland signature alkaline water the crispiest best water in the world am drinking water uh fully loaded with some grape mio so I also am sans alcohol tonight oh I am so far but that’s only because this last weekend there were some indulgences made yeah I played uh I played back-to-back scrambles I played one on friday hundred degree heat uh finished you’re not allowed to be sober in a scramble either No, no, absolutely not. And then we played another one on Saturday. It was even hotter. And same result. Finished third in both of them. So I had a good weekend. I had the best round since… Two thousand nine? Ten? Eleven? somewhere in there was the last time I broke seventy five in around regardless of par. I did it on my par sixty seven Muni course, which is a whole whopping five thousand yards. But I started off two hours of sleep, woke up six forty five a.m. tee time. Uh, and started first five holes for bogeys. And so I was thinking very quickly on that. I might not be keeping score the entire round because it was not, I was feeling terrible. I was hung over. I was not, I was not well rested and my playing partners were giving me lots of grief. And then I started making really good shots and I feel like I either blacked out or I just snapped because on the back nine, I made three birdies. I was even par going into the eighteenth hole. lipped out a par putt that would have been the most miraculous part ever. I was just so unconscious with the short game and I hit so many good approach shots with wedge in hand that I just I I must have blacked out because after that five over start, I was one or I was four over to start and I was even part of the rest of the round. I ended up with a four over seventy one. And so even for me, that’s really good. I feel, especially for me, that’s really good because my handicap went from eleven point six to nine point eight in one round. That’s that’s good eating right there. I still think that we got to get people to start signing your scorecards. But no, that’s fine. I was probably the opposite of you. My driver was on fire Friday and Saturday, like every shot that every shape, everything I wanted to do. I was all over the fairways. It was it was the wedge game that let me down, if anything. And uh had made a putter switch uh so putter with putter was better still not great but uh yeah here I am with a twenty year old putter with the its seventh grip it’s like when you have a bunch of pets that are the same breed of dog then you just keep naming it the same name and just add a number at the end that’s what I feel like with I’m on like grip six or seven with this old odyssey putter from two thousand four or five I don’t even remember when I bought it but See, I won’t make a putter switch, but I will upgrade my wedges so the grooves are nice and clean. And then, yeah, for me, it’s just about just focusing. And I think that was the part that I did well with was once I started off so terribly, the pressure was off. I was like, I’m not even going to keep score this round. And then I made it. I almost made a hole in one on the fourth or fifth hole. It’s perfect. par three hit the perfect club rolled it right next to the hole made birdie and I was like okay something something’s here and I think it was just taking the pressure off myself where it’s not about the result it’s about the execution and having a good time out there and I played great the rest of the day so yeah the less I care the better I play I mean that’s that’s oh every time every time and it’s it’s funny how that works Yeah, I’m with you, though. I you know, every time I try and go away from Odyssey, I go right back to it. So I’m not a sponsor yet. But but yeah, Odyssey is the choice choice of the nineteenth hole. Yeah. If Odyssey has a newer version of the exact same putter have, I’m interested. All right. What do you say we jump into the news? There’s a few things to cover, including an epic collapse and a great victory for Team America and an Aussie. namely took home a major. Right off the top. Oh, my goodness. Seventy one holes of glorious. Actually, we should say fifty four holes of glorious golf for Tommy Fleetwood. Three shot lead heading into Sunday and won the only golfer in the final four groups to not break par on Sunday at the Travelers final round. Seventy two to over and an epic run. collapse on the seventy second hole one shot lead two shot swing Tommy Fleetwood what you doing man first first win was in the bag even Rory thought he had in the bag in his post round interview and splits the fairway three hundred yard drive right down the pipe has a what should have been a nine iron in from one thirty eight. That’s a nine iron for just about all of us, especially with a little bit of a hurt crosswind front pin where it’s better to be a little long than a little short. And he was a whole club short. Imagine that. Didn’t have a very difficult chip to that front right hole location. Still hit a very poor chip. Happened to be a couple inches on the exact same line as Keegan Bradley, who had a birdie putt from six and a half feet for the win, or he thought was going to be to force a playoff. And Tommy gave him the line. He also hit a dead center putt when it should have been an outside left putt. He also hit a pitch mark on the way there that kicked it even further right. ultimate choke job what’s your real reaction to sunday at the travelers with one fairway jesus tommy fleetwood yeah I mean I I’m the ultimate jinx I you know turned it on sunday morning I’m just like oh yeah tommy’s got this in the bag I’m already victory laughing in my head all the things I’m gonna say to you and three holes in you were like oh well And then you’re just like, it’s just my heart breaks for the guy. What do you say? I mean, he should have had it locked down. I have a theory that the only reason we’re heartbroken for the guy is because he’s such a great guy. Like if he was a turd, like if it was Wyndham Clark collapsing on Sunday or Brian Harmon or a number of other golfers that we don’t particularly care for as a person. we would be a lot less heartbroken, but because it’s Tommy Fleetwood, who is class personified and one heck of a golfer, I mean, number seven, the world rankings without a win should tell you how great he is, but can’t play not to lose Tommy. Yeah. And you just, you just look at like that. The final hole is just a demonstration of that. Like he just, uh, I mean, he just looked out of sorts. And then to have a relatively simple putt, I mean, anybody looking at that putt knew about what it was going to do. And then to not clean up your line and hit the pitch mark, it’s just, I mean. It was a mess. It was a mess. Just somebody throw a net over him. I mean, it was just cringing for him the whole way. I had something else. I was going to throw a tarp over him because he dead. Yeah. uh just I don’t know outline around that poor brit and he’s you know he’s just beside himself standing on the green there’s a shot of keegan making that putt over tommy’s shoulder and tommy’s just you know head and hands just well he knew it as soon as he hit his head as soon as he picked pitching as soon as he threw the nine iron back in the bag and pulled pitching wedge he that was it that was his fate was sealed because he put all the pressure back on himself Keegan piped his drive too, and Tommy had that approach shot. If Tommy stuffs that approach, then Keegan is under all the pressure because he has to make birdie either way, and now he has to stuff it inside of Tommy to give himself a realistic chance of forcing a playoff. When Tommy hit it short of the green, that’s when Keegan got excited, and that’s when he realized, and we heard it in the conversation between he and his caddy, was that it was a perfect number for him. He was ten yards shorter. He had a little bit longer drive. He had an actual full pitching wedge and stuffed it in nice and close. And now Tommy’s, I mean, we’re in match play at that point. Like once they both hit their drives, it’s match play. And Tommy had the leg up until he put the nine iron back in the bag. And that was it. As soon as he hit that approach shot, I was like, Keegan’s got this. And then who was it? And Henley chipped in. So even if Keegan missed it, we were having a three-way playoff. I just I still don’t know why Tommy didn’t hit, like I said, like a little sawed off nine at it. I mean, it’s just everything set up. He could have been a little long there and had a little sweeper putt, but it’s a heck of a lot better than a thirty yard chip shot trying to read the contour of the green under all that pressure that you just put on yourself. Yeah. I mean, truth be told, he was collapsing long before that, but he was, I mean, he had a terrible round and it just kind of culminated on that last hole. Speaking of winning. Oh, captain, my captain. Yeah. Keegan Bradley is now eighth in the Ryder Cup point standing, which means that another high finish. And he doesn’t even have to decide whether or not he’s a playing captain. He could automatically qualify on points to be a playing captain. And then it’s just like, okay, now who else is on the team? Because we’re pretty well set. Keegan should be on this team regardless. And the only reason we’re talking about him maybe not playing is because he is the captain. Let him play. Let him be captain. It’s not that hard of a job. Like, really, it’s just not enough. They got to let him play. Or he’s got to let himself play, I guess, is a better way to put it. Especially if he’s playing like this. His final round was awesome because even when he made mistakes, he kept his foot on the gas. And that’s why he won is because he kept his foot on the gas. He made aggressive plays. He was nails off the tee. His approach game was spotty, but when he hit good approach shots, it meant something because he was cashing in on the greens like no other. And that’s the difference in his game this year is… Can he make putts? Can Keegan Bradley make putts? And this in the travelers for the second time in three years now, he made the putts to cash in on that great ball striking that he’s always had. I love Keegan Bradley. I love his fire. And when a guy like that pulls it out on the very last hole of the tournament with absolute clutch performance on that that approach shot was gorgeous as soon as he as soon as he got that yardage from his caddy and he said perfect I was like oh he’s stuffing this in yeah dude I love everything about keegan I I’m I hey it sucks for tommy but uh I’m I’m pumped that keegan keegan won it and he did to your point had the putter roll and Round two was the only thing that was a little dicey. I mean, still two under, but, I mean, it’s just, you know. Round two was with the wind up, and so the scoring was down overall because of Friday’s round with the wind gusting. The wind was a little swirly on Sunday, but there were good scores out there. On Friday, it was a little tougher, and so him holding his own with an under par round was pretty good to hold serve there. Tommy going low on Saturday really – vaulted him into a good position but as we know he squandered that and Keegan Bradley and Scotty and Rory and all those guys Harris English they all shot sixty five on Sunday to catch up and they had no business even being close to contention with Tommy starting that day with three shots lead ahead of everybody But his opening four holes, what was he? Three over. So instantly everybody was within five shots, including the number one and number two golfers in the world. And in the end, Keegan Bradley, man, he had the home crowd behind him there in New England. And it was rowdy. It’s the second most attended PGA Tour event. It’s a really nice golf course. Everybody’s fired up for Keegan. And although they weren’t rooting against Tommy Fleetwood to win it, they definitely weren’t rooting for him. Well, and to your point too, I mean, it’s a good event. I mean, it’s, it’s a, you know, annual celebration. It’s always a great crowd. I mean, yeah, I, I, All in all, I’d say it’s a good event. You know, I think I think there were a lot of people that were right there in contention that we’ve been on, too. So, you know, JT, I think if you take away the third round, JT was right there again. You know, and you get seen starting to see some guys like, you know, Denny’s been playing really well. He was right up there in the top. Rory looked like he was bouncing back a little bit, which was good to see. Harry Hall. Scotty’s starting to look a little more human. Still top six. His worst performance in two months is a tie for sixth. But no, I mean, yeah, I super excited about Keegan. I’d love to see him get another high finish. And like, like we’ve said, I’d love to like to see him be the player captain, especially after last go around where arguably he was fairly well snubbed for Justin Thomas, as I recall. It was a terrible snub. And that was because Zach Johnson, another guy, I don’t care if he collapses and loses a three shot Sunday lead, was the captain that time around. And and ironically, The United States got absolutely smashed by Europe in that Ryder Cup. They probably could have used a fiery American player who was actually playing well last season, unlike JT on the team. Might not have made a difference, but it wasn’t going to hurt. A hundred percent. All right. We have A third major for Minwoo Lee’s older, more decorated sibling Minji Lee. Congratulations winning the very tough LPGA championship in Texas at the Frisco complex. They played that one course that everybody calls boring. It’s the same, same tee shot on every hole, very poorly designed golf course. And it was windy as all get up. all week long. And Minji shoots two over in the final round to finish as one of only three women under par for the tournament. Very good performance. Even with two over, she outlasted the rest of the field, including Nellie, Nellie Korda, who shot four over on Sunday to fall out of it. What a win that, that, that course looked really tough. It was, it was wide open, but it was fast and the wind was playing havoc, uh, don’t see a lot of tough tracks on the lpga tour but overall it was pretty entertaining I caught a lot of it minji’s just got such a great game like she’s she’s like minwoo if minwoo was uh an incredible putter and had better approach like they’re both yeah if minwoo could putt he might have three majors like his big sister Yeah, I didn’t catch as much as you did. I mean, like I said, I was playing golf most of the weekend, but it seemed like every time that they’d cut to Minji, she was rolling something in. I mean, just like pure, pure putting stroke. And, you know, I think on Sunday shooting two over, I mean, just did what she had to do. Just held it together and, you know, survival. It was survival. Couple of low, low scores on, on Sunday too. Uh, one, one SN, it was four under Kim was four under. Um, so they came from way back to finish top five and under par, uh, but a three shot victory that’s in a major that’s substantial three shot lead. It’s three shot win four under par for the tournament. The next two were tied at one under par and there was nobody else under par. That’s, that’s a tough. tough layout with the Texas winds swirling and blowing hard. And we saw the short game for Nellie Korda kind of abandoned her in that final round where she was leaving chips short. She was chipping it over the green and as good of a ball striker as Nellie is, she couldn’t survive not being able to chip that well in the wind because it was just, it was ugly. I was like, I played in these conditions before and it does not look fun at all. You better have chapstick out there. Like you could just see their lips cracking as they’re playing. I can relate. Like I said, Friday, a hundred degree weather and like thirty mile an hour winds. So I was I was in a basically an oven. All right. What do you say we we wax poetic about Detroit Golf Club? Yeah, we’ll talk about it. I actually love the city of Detroit, but your golf course, man, needs to do a better job of making it tougher on these guys. I want some carnage. I don’t want twenty six under. Well, we have reached caddy notes, Detroit rock city, Connor, take it away. Yeah, the Rocket Mortgage Classic Detroit Golf Club in Michigan, as we established earlier, par-seventy-two, seventy-three hundred and seventy yards. Fairways are a combination of bent and POA. Greens are bent POA as well. Yeah, I think this is a pretty uninspiring track, to be perfectly honest. It should be a bit of a birdie fest. Fairways are pretty darn wide. I think they rate inside the top five easiest fairways to hit on tour every year. They’re also generally kept relatively soft, receptive. You don’t get a lot of rollout on them. The rough is inconsequential as well. No lateral hazards. The greens, even though they’re small, like I said, they keep this place pretty, pretty receptive. And on top of that, there’s going to be some moisture in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday. So the greens should be pretty easy to hold. I would say there’s a bit of a narrative that bombers have an advantage here. I don’t know that I fully buy that. You can get guys that get really solid wedge play, and especially putting. There’s been a couple of guys that just fully rode the putter to victory here. So I really like bombers, but I don’t think it’s a necessity. I think as long as you’ve got good iron play, make all your putts, keep up with the birdies. You should have a pretty, pretty decent week. You don’t need shoes to run a marathon, but it does help. It’s, I mean, it’s a basic Parkland style golf course with like little to no defense on it. And we’re going to have nice weather. I mean, this place, they should tear this place apart. Yeah, it’s going to be lots and lots of birdies. So would you say that birdie or better percentage is important this week? I would. I would. I also really like guys, you know, that stat that I always like to lean on with the opportunities gained. I like a lot. If you’re playing DraftKings, DK points scored would be definitely something I would wait. You guys score a lot of points. But yeah, overall, I looked at driving distance. I looked at some approach buckets. Putting, like I said, was a bit of a differentiator for me when I was going between a couple of guys. Bo made the call out birdie or better rate is super important here. But there’s not a whole lot of tricks, man. Approach. Yeah, proximity under one hundred and fifty yards. A lot of these holes are very similar in length and layout. Par five scoring, obviously it’s, it’s going to be important to score a lot of birdies, lots of birdies or better. And so you can keep up like par is a terrible score on this golf course. It really is. Yeah. I mean, and honestly, I don’t even see a lot of pars when you look at the course. I mean, it’s just like, you’re going to get pars obviously, but you’re going to have birdie looks on almost everything. The only hole that’s even really kind of maybe a challenge is the six hundred thirty five yard fourth hole, which, you know, a very long par five. So it’s five outside of that. I mean, these these are like it’s a pretty mundane layout. It’s just kind of. Yeah, it’s going to be a score fest. No carnage this week, though. No carnage, much to my chagrin. There is a prototype here. Obviously, longer hitters do have somewhat of an advantage, but if you have everything else here, like Connor said, it’s not the end-all, be-all. It’s just this is one of the more bomb-and-gouge, exploitable courses, which I think people kind of… There’s no causation there. It’s like if you have the bomb to gouge this course, you can. And if you don’t, you don’t necessarily need it. It’s still a birdie maker’s course, whether you’re down there, three hundred fifty yards in the rough or two eighty in the fairway. You’re still going to get lots of birdie looks. It’s all about putting and cashing them in. And so I am also looking at good putters, people who can putt just in general, not just hot putters, but the guys are generally good at putting. Does that sound right? Yeah, that does sound right. I mean, well, yeah, it’s, it’s, it’s again, it’s just, you want to make it sound tougher than it is, but it’s just not, it’s not going to be tough. There’s a play good golf. Without further ado, let’s bet on some golf and twirl some clubs. Yeah. DraftKings Sportsbook. You can use whatever books you want. We’re using DraftKings because it’s right here on my screen. No Scotty, no Rory, no Xander. We have Colin Morikawa as the betting favorite at plus twelve hundred. balled by a few other guys we’re pretty familiar with. This is not a top-heavy field, but it is a pretty deep field. There are some really good names in this field that very much so have a chance to win here. Honestly, when you have your betting favorite at double-digit odds, it gets a little exciting, and you’ve got to be a little careful at managing your bankroll, especially when there’s a few short weeks until the final major of the year, as well as the FedExCup playoffs in August. So where do we start here? We have Morikawa at twelve. We have Cantlay at sixteen. We got defending last week’s champion Keegan Bradley at eighteen to one. And we got Ben Griffin at twenty two to one. We’ll talk about the next year after that because it has some even funner names to look at. But between those four, is there anybody there that you actually want to spend money on? I could be. I could be talked into. You hesitated, so that’s a no, and you can be talked into who? I could be talked into Keegan. I could be talked into Ben Griffin. Ben Griffin’s just been playing really good golf. That’s a pretty short number for him, in my opinion, but that would probably be the one I would gravitate towards is Ben Griffin, just well-rounded. He is. He is. Yeah, he’s his short iron approach game concerns me. That’s that’s going to make a difference here. Par five scoring is middle of the pack, driving distance, middle of the pack, a little bit above middle of the pack. Off the tee is a little squirrely, which doesn’t really hurt him here, but he does make a lot of birdies. So that’s that’s something to look at. And for me, it’s just the number. It’s twenty two is not inspiring. I like other guys that are longer than that. at the same, like if I’m handicapping, I’m putting Griffin closer to twenty five or thirty and I’m putting some of the guys there at thirty thirty five in his range. So I’m not on Griffin or anybody at the top of the board. I just want to spend my money a little more wisely this week. And I’m not really gung ho about any of these guys in the top four. Yeah, I’m not. I’m not. I’m not kicking down the door to bet them. But I will say we don’t talk about it a ton anymore. But, you know, Ben Griffin, as far as DK is concerned, over the last twelve rounds, twenty four rounds, rather, he’s the number one DK point scorer in the field. And at ninety eight hundred, I think people are going to hesitate to pull the trigger on him. So I think I think it’s a pretty nice play in DFS. That’s that’s a good point. so going down further uh the flavor of the week is obviously going to be cam young who has great history here because it’s the one place where you can just hit the ball really far hit some decent iron shots and make maybe a quarter of your putts and win a tournament he’s never won any tournament ever uh he’s like tommy fleetwood without the dp world tour success Uh, it’s, uh, Cam Young, according to all the other experts I’ve been listening to, which aren’t many is the odds on favorite to win this at plus twenty eight hundred. Uh, no, thanks. I mean, this is for me. You’re going to tell me Cam Young is probably going to win this thing, but I just don’t see it. So I’m not going to tell you Cam Young is going to probably win this thing, but I have been on Cam Young for about two, three weeks now and. I mean, he’s been close. Last week he wasn’t. Yeah, but what he did do last week that I think is good is he really had the putter going still. So he gained three point four strokes putting last week, which he’s on a bit of a streak with the putter. And we kind of mentioned earlier that like a bomber who can putt, if he keeps the putter rolling, I could see it. I think it’s short for him. I’m not going to probably bet it, but he’ll be in a couple lineups on DFS. You know that every line, every outright line on Cam Young is a short line for Cam Young because career to date, betting Cam Young outright has paid zero dollars and zero cents American. Yeah, and more so like the relative value. Like we’re only maybe two weeks removed from Cam Young being a hundred to one. And so like, I mean, this is. This is juiced. It’s very inflated. And, you know, people are gravitating towards him because he’s showing signs of life, which is making the number slide even more. So again, I don’t love him. I don’t love him as an outright. Five for fifty second at the Travelers. Really inspiring. Really go. It really gets me going. I’m telling you, so you got a bad taste for Cam Young, much like you do with Tommy Fleetwood sometimes. But I am saying like there’s signs of life there. Like Cam Young, what really did him in at the Travelers was the off the tee game, which is actually the most consistent part of his game. So the fact that that went away last week, I think, is really what kind of kept him so far out. Yeah, and. I think I could be talked into a top five cam bet because it’s plus five hundred right now. That’s a decent bet. I can see him making the top five. I don’t think he has the mental game to win a tournament on the PGA Tour, not just from talent perspective. He’s pretty, pretty good. Like I’ve I enjoy watching him play, but when he gets under pressure, he is a lot like Tommy Fleetwood, where He completely collapses. He crumbles. He folds, especially when stress is put on his putting, which it can’t afford any stress. He’s a terrible putter by and large. And he played well last week putting because there was no pressure on him to make putts. He was, again, like we were saying about our own golf games is Cam Young is a, he’s a prisoner of the moment when it comes down to final rounds or, or just being in contention in general is I don’t see him winning tournaments, even in a field like this, but a top five plus five hundred. I could be convinced. The guy I’m actually starting my card with is at thirty to one, and it’s a guy who’s now put together seven consecutive top twenty finishes and even spent some time in the medical tent on Saturday getting an IV. That’s Englishman Harry Hall, who is lights out as a putter, like one of the best putters on the planet and not the longest hitter, but he’s middle of the pack distance wise. Absolutely nails from one from from inside the one fifty mark birdie making machine third and birdies are better gained in mine and tenth on approach. It seems like the guy I want to bet thirty to one for a guy who’s been so consistently good this season who has won on the PGA Tour before. I like Harry Hall. Yeah, I love Harry Hall. No argument from me. I’ve got him on my card, too. And, you know, when you look at the birdies, like the birdie-making prowess that he has, I mean… So good. So good. And then to your point with the putting, I mean, just… third in the field for putting six in the field for three putt avoidance. I have them a little lower down the chain on one hundred and twenty five to one hundred and fifty yard proximity. Hasn’t been playing super great from that range. Yeah. When you get them into that hundred to one hundred and twenty five yard range jumps all the way up to fourteenth in my modeling. So third overall, I like I like the odds on him. And to your point, this is a guy that has won before. Wouldn’t take a whole lot for him to fire off a whole ton of birdies and take this thing down. So. And what we don’t talk about with Harry Hall is he’s one of the most aggressive players on tour. Like he’s like the Siwoo Kim of England where he’s out there hitting every shot right at the pin and for better or worse. And this is the kind of golf course where that really does work because if he’s offline or he hits a bad shot, it doesn’t hurt at all. Like you’re not looking at bogey avoidance this week. You’re looking at who can put themselves in the most chances to roll it in. And I know Harry Hall can roll it in with the best of them. Uh, are we going to go right into the mid range? Cause that’s all I got on the top tier. That’s a pretty much the only thing that I’m a hundred percent on in the top tier as well. So same. All right. Moving on. Uh, there’s a couple of guys at four to one. I really like, and I know both of us are in complete unison on Luke Clanton, four to one for Luke Clanton in this field on this golf course, where he, in his debut last year as a year old finished top ten. Love it. I love it. This guy is the one nuclear option, the full ladder pick for me. Luke Clanton, forty to one. He could break the scoring record this week, which I think is twenty six under par at Detroit Golf Club. I think he could be the twenty eight under a guy if he gets hot. This is the guy who really if you get him, you get him in position off the tees. Tenth, he’s number two in overall ball striking. He’s number five on approach. Seems really good. Twenty first in putting. Oh, my goodness. What does that make him? Numero uno in birdie or better rate in this entire field. I don’t care that he’s young. I don’t care that he was a college student a few months ago. Luke Clanton is a monster pick in this field. yeah absolutely and I the the thing that has been holding him back so far uh has been his ability to keep it in the fairway and that’s gonna be a lot less of a problem here a lot less I mean the fact that he’s top ten and strokes gained off a t with his uh wayward ways is really impressive Well, and it’s wild when you see him pop up in strokes game off the tee, because when you look at like his fairway game number, I mean, he’s ninety ninth in this field. Like, it’s not good. Yeah. But he, you know, to your point, he finds a way, finds a way to, you know, to get the birdies done. So, yeah, I love Luke Clanton here. I’m with you. Do the full ladder on him. Yeah. The next guy I like in this range is somebody that’s starting to really pop up, and that’s Ricky Fowler, also at forty to one. Ooh, baby. Is he getting hot? Is he getting hot? I think he’s getting hot, man. When you look at what he’s done over the course of the last couple of months, I mean, he’s got his fifteenth at the Truist, sixteenth at the Charles Schwab, seventh at the Memorial, even last week at the Travelers, finished in thirty six. But what was interesting about that is it was his outlier performance. He lost strokes putting, lost strokes on approach and was flat off the tee. It’s the first time in about three months that he’s lost or been flat in all three of those categories. And so if we get a little bounce back from him this week, just a couple strokes off the tee, which he’s fully capable of, putter comes back into play a little bit. Ricky absolutely can make birdies when he gets hot. And so, forty to one, I really like it, man. I think he’s right on the cusp of getting back in the winner’s circle. I’ll give you a pushback on Ricky because I thought he would be more in the fifty to fifty five range because his form, although better, has not been great. Like he’s he hasn’t put it all together at any point this season. He’s been mostly together a few spots that you mentioned. I think forty to one in this field is kind of a little short for me. I’m more on Clanton at the same number for sure. And so when I look at those two next to each other, I don’t want to bet on the guy who I have a lot of question marks about. unless it’s a guy who has the ability to go completely berserk in easy conditions. And I haven’t seen that from Ricky in a long time. Ricky’s a better grinder at this stage of his career than he is a go out and shoot twenty five under guy. So I think I’d rather play Max Grazerman, a younger guy with a little more firepower than Ricky has at this point. And we’re talking twenty fifteen, Ricky. Absolutely. But we probably wouldn’t have got him at forty to one either. Yeah. I got to disagree with you. He definitely can still go low. I mean, we’ve, we’ve seen it four days for four days. I don’t, I’ve seen him go low one or two days. I just haven’t seen the season in a tournament, like a full go. No, I get the apprehension. Um, I think I’m going to take a pass on him here. I’ve been just kind of blindly betting him almost every week. And I think I’m going to take a pass until I, you know. Yeah. And for me, I saw him pop a top ten in my model. And I’m starting to think that Max Grazer might Rex Grazerman might be the stat darling this year. because he’s no worse than sixty-fifth in any metric that I measured, but he’s no better than ninth in any of them either. And that happens to be in birdie or better rate, which I had the heaviest weighting. So I’m looking at a lot of good but not great. Jack of all trades, master of none type of work here, which if you’re Tommy Fleetwood just making top twenties and top tens every week, it works. But if we’re looking for real money betting on golf, you really shouldn’t do that at forty to one. That’s where I’m at there. I really like Clanton at forty, and I’m willing to just kind of skip down and flood the long shot market the rest of the way. Honestly, to be smart with your money betting in an in-between week with not a lot of fanfare, I think that’s the best way to go about this week. yeah like like I said I’m I’m really only on a couple guys in that forty range and it’s because I’m not on any of the favorites really so um it’s harry hall luke clinton ricky fowler for me in that range and then I’m I’m more with you I’m starting to get into that like sixty five or deeper um and just spread out spread out my shares that way all right down to the long shots we have thor bjorn olsen is that picture of thor bjorn olsen I think it is Where did that come from? We got to have a chat with Seth about that. I wrote Thor in the show sheet. Michael. Yeah, Michael Thorbjornsson, not Thorbjorn Olsson. Very common mistake, but… Michael Thor Bjornson, seventy five to one is another ladder pick of mine, because not only is he healed up from his wrist injury from a couple from a month ago, but he’s got somebody new on his bag, Connor. Connor, did you know who his new caddy was? I don’t know that I know. OK, so as you know, Colin Morikawa and JJ Jakovac split and he got Griner on his bag. and for a while there I didn’t know who jj was going to pop up with well stanford guy michael thor bjornson has hired two-time national champion two-time major champion caddy jj jacob pride of chico state shout out norcal there it is I can’t get enough michael thor bjornson this week his game fits his course he can go super duper low with his talent just a, I like, like, like, can he though? I mean, he’s number, he’s number two in my model in birdies are better gained. Number two. I don’t know. Yeah. He’s number nine in the proximity buckets. Number six in driving distance, number twelve on approach overall and number fifteen overall ball striking. So I give it to you. Off the tee, he gains more strokes than almost anybody in the field, no doubt. But, yeah, his putting is bad. His wedge game, not great. I filtered for bent grass, and his putting is – little bit lower than middle of the pack not great I will give you that but his ball striking is so good and jj jackovac if you can say one thing about jj is that he carried colin morikawa on the greens he’s one of the best greens readers I’ve ever seen I’ve played with jj jackovac before it was a long time ago two thousand nine ten somewhere somewhere in there and That guy could read a green with his eyes closed. He is that good. And so getting a guy who maybe doesn’t necessarily read these level of greens very well at this point in his career, being a young first-year player, having that experience… on a course like this where there’s not a lot of nuance to it, and we’re just trying to go low, hit it deep, stick it close, make some putts. Michael Thor Bjornsson is seventy-five to one. All the risk is already baked in. New caddy, Hootis. So I’m going to hit you with one that I rarely have said over the duration of our friendship. I’m excited for this one. this was the shocker of the week in terms of my modeling, but Emiliano Griot at sixty five to one. He popped for me, too. And dude, I’m going to guess he popped for the same reasons. And what was shocking to me is actually how good he’s been putting like Emiliano Griot. It is shocking because he’s known for being atrocious. Atrocious. So anyways, number one approach over the last week, I had to throw it out. Shocker of the week, Emiliano Grillo. I mean, number one in approach over the last twenty four, number five and one hundred to one hundred and twenty five yards, number twelve and one hundred and twenty five to one hundred and fifty. He’s seventh and DK points scored. He’s thirteenth and opportunities gained. He’s going to have a ton of looks at birdie and the way that he’s been rolling the putter lately. I don’t know, man. I’m ready to be hurt again, I guess. Yeah, he was number three in my model and all I did was click the bent grass greens filter. He went hurtling to the ground. I don’t know what it is about bent grass, but he does not like it because as soon as I uncheck bent grass, this guy shoots the time. He must just love Bermuda. Yeah. I mean, he’s yeah, it’s past Palomar Bermuda for him, but what I do like is bent, bent right up there with Bermuda for him. It’s the, it’s the POA blend that’s going to give him fits a little bit, but I, you know, he’s again, it’s a, it’s Emiliano Griot. He’s been known to get absolutely lights out with approach shots, especially with the shorter irons. So he’s dropping it two feet from the pin. He’s as long as they get off the tee. Dropped it two feet from the pin. I mean, there’s less margin for error. These aren’t incredibly difficult greens. They’re just small. Yeah. Yeah. So I love I love stats. I’m going to trust the stats. And that’s he’s getting some money from me this week. Sixty five to one. Yeah. All right. Have fun with that one. So I’m going to go to one of our co-favorites, a guy that I met at the Barracuda a couple of years ago, pride of Philippines guy. Rico Hoey, eighty to one, very much, very similar to Emiliano Griot as a career kind of golfer, maybe a little less top end success in majors like Griot had at LACC a couple of years ago. But Rico Hoey’s ball striking this year has been so good. Are we worried about his putting? Absolutely. He cannot putt. He’s awful. Cannot putt. But off the tee and on approach, this guy is really good. And as far as making birdies, just make a quarter of a man. Just give yourself fourteen birdie opportunities around and make six of them and you’ll be right there. Rico. Eighty to one for Rico Ahoy seems like a really good line for him because he has all that upside. Yeah, I agree. He’s got the upside for sure. We were on him a few times. He’s been close to doing some good stuff for us. I don’t hate it at My other guy, eighty to one, Jake Knapp. We talk about how you can deemphasize the accuracy of the tee. Yes, that’s what this is. Jake Knapp can bomb it with the best of them. He’s got a good wedge game. I wouldn’t say anything stands out, but we’ve seen Knapp get really hot, make birdies and bunches. So in this mix of guys at that seventy to eighty, I mean, he’s he’s a name that stands out to me as somebody who could absolutely get get scorching hot win. So in this field, I have Knapp no worse than seventy fourth. So middle of the pack, no worse than middle of the pack in any category. So that is that’s actually one of the safer picks in that in that range right there. Can he win? Yeah, we’ve seen him do it. We cashed in on him in Mexico last year. So that was that was exactly what we’re looking for is bomb and gouge. There’s your bomb and gouge specialist right there in front of you. Well, and he, you know, he played well in Mexico again this year, too. I mean, he finished twenty fifth, but you look at the stats that he put up. He had an, you know, an atypical approach week. And that’s what these bomb and gouge types, of course, is it’s where Knapp’s Knapp tends to pop up on approach. And so I really like him here. I think eighty to one is I think it’s a value on Jake Knapp. He’s got real win equity. So I got two guys, number one and number two in my entire model, and they’re both long shots. One of them I’m going to bet outright with a top-twenty. The other one I’m just going to bet a top-twenty because there’s no way ever he’s going to win this tournament. The guy I’m betting outright is Patrick Fishburne, number two in my model. He is first in strokes gained off the tee, fourth in overall ball striking, He is tenth in birdies or better percentage in my model. Patrick Fishburne. I mentioned him a couple times this year. He’s done okay. He’s had some okay finishes. He’s made some cuts. He’s got a lot of upside. He is not the kind of guy you want on a course with any peril or danger at all because he doesn’t avoid bogeys very well. But we’re not we’re not considering that. So one hundred and twenty to one for Patrick Fishburne, very young up and coming player. We will be hearing more about him in years to come. This season hasn’t quite put it all together, but I have a feeling it’s kind of place where Patrick Fishburne, who I comp, it’s a it’s a loose comp, but I do comp him to Tony Finau, very similar style of player. And so Patrick Fishburne, remember that name, even if he doesn’t do it this week, I do think he has a chance to go low here and do some, make some noise. Yeah. My top. Yeah. A hundred and fifty to one is my Carl Billups. Yeah. Yeah. I just I just had to get that in there before the fifty two minute mark. this is exactly the type of spot that we need to hammer Billups. Yes. To de-emphasize the off-the-tee game, he’s got good enough distance off the tee, obviously. He’s much better from, like, hundred and twenty-five to one-fifty range. Yes. approach has been pretty good lately um and he’s he’s a golfer that just anytime that he has the potential to get hot uh he can go run away with this thing so uh phillips has been a roller coaster for us but uh we’ve cashed in on him already and this could be another week big one you got the hat I got the hat yeah hat hat back baby we love the hat number eleven bow All right. My number eleven is Jake Knapp. I love that. My number eleven is Patrick Cantlay. Hate that. I don’t hate it. It’s just at the odds he’s at, it’s ridiculous. Don’t bet Patrick Cantlay at his odds unless you really think he’s going to do something he hasn’t done all year. Anyway, this has been the Nineteenth Hole Live, as always, on InBetween Media. Like, subscribe, jingle the bell. You know where to find us next week. We have the John Deere classic, Nothing Runs Like a Deere.
