2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Super Preview: Course Breakdown, Biggest Storylines & Predictions

2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Super Preview: Course Breakdown, Biggest Storylines & Predictions

The third major of the year is upon us, as the 2025 US open brings the world’s best golfers to one of the world’s toughest courses, Oakmont Country Club. This will be the 10th time it’s contested at Oakmont, the most of any course in US open history. Now, Oakmont is widely considered one of the toughest courses in the whole United States. It’s similar to the links style course with no water hazards, minimal amount of trees. The course features 175 bunkers, estimated five plus inch rough and fast greens. The course also features the longest par three and longest par five in U.S. Open history. Taking a look at some of these tee times, we’ve got defending champ Bryson DeChambeau teeing off at 7:29 a.m. Eastern along side Xander Schauffele, now Scottie Scheffler coming off a victory at the PGA Championship. He will tee off at 1:25 p.m. Eastern, along with Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland. Rory McIlroy he won the Masters earlier this year, teeing off at 7:40 a.m. Eastern. Shane Lowry and Justin Rose beside him. All right, we got our golf guru Greg Ducharme joining us now to prepare us for the US open. So as I mentioned, Oakmont Country Club, it’s going to host its record extending 10th U.S. Open. It opened back a long time ago in 1903, underwent a bunker restoration in 2023. It’s known to be challenging. It’s known to be hard. Break it down for us and give us your course preview. And that is the whole point. Jenny. When you look at a US open, it’s designed the idea of the US open is to test the players in every single area of their game. You’ll be tested off the tee, both distance and accuracy tested into these rather large greens. There 8500ft■!S, some of the largest greens we’ll see on the PGA tour all year. But even though they’re really big in square footage, they’re really small in playable area. And that’s because there’s so much slope. If you’re coming from the rough now, you have a short game that really gets tested, because that short game may get extended out to 60, 70, 80 yards where you have to get up and down for par from those areas. So Oakmont is ideally it is the ideal test for a US open. One of my favorite parts about it, Jenny, is it doesn’t just do it with length. You think about this golf course. It’s known for being long and very challenging, but there are four par fours that are under 400 yards and they are still very difficult holes. You have to think your way around. You have to have control over over your golf ball from tee to green. And the challenge doesn’t stop there because once you get on the green, like you mentioned already, the greens are extremely fast. Yeah. Let’s talk a little bit more about them. They’re known for being incredibly fast. It’s really precise putting when you think about it. Walk us through just how you can go about just finding success on those greens. Yeah these greens Jenny, are going to be rolling at about 14.5 on the stimpmeter. So what we’ve done here in the studio is created a downhill putt. Now this mat is about a 12 on the stimpmeter typically. But because we’ve created so much downhill pitch there’s really just nothing to stop it. I just give that ball a little tap. You can see how fast it’s rolling. And that one wasn’t supposed to go into the hole, but I guess that’s my good luck charm. So the challenge when you’re on greens that are this quick is you have to hit them so soft that every little bump, every little imperfection really affects the golf ball. I mean, sometimes it feels like the dimples on the golf ball make it so it can’t roll straight. So what you have to do in these situations and what the players will face this week, is you have to hit instead of hitting a 12 foot putt like this softly, you have to hit a two foot putt really solidly. So all I’m going to do is change my target. Instead of aiming somewhere around the hole, I’m going to aim at this hole that we have covered up here, and I’m going to aim just about on the right edge. So I’m going to hit this putt. I’m going to move the hole in my mind up to just two feet away from me. And now every look that I take from this point on, once I get myself aimed, which I am about there now, every look is just right to this spot, just two feet in front of me and somewhere right around the right edge. And now I’m going to set in. I’m going to look at that spot. I got it locked in right there. There it is. Just two feet away, a really solid two foot putt. And watch this thing roll. It’s going a little fast and it well there you go. Just like that. That’s how it has to work at the US open. And if you do that Oakmont is really not that hard. Oh yeah. Not hard at all. I thought you might miss the putt there and just, you know, your casual first putt that you just tapped it in accidentally? I feel like that’s just the way that it goes in golf. Very impressive. I learned a lot from this one. Greg Ducharme with the latest getting us ready for the US open. How to handle those tough greens. They’re looking at the highest winning score at the past 50 US opens. We mentioned how difficult it is. So the highest score it was achieved by Tommy Armor in 1927 301. That’s plus 13. He won after playing against Harry Cooper, who also finished at plus 13. Taking a look at more recent days, Angel Cabrera plus five Oakmont. Back in 2007, Patrick McDonald and Shane Bacon joining us now. More U.S. Open chatter coming your way. And we got to talk about Scottie Scheffler, who has the shortest odds to win any major since Tiger Woods in 2009. He’s looking to become the third active player with three legs of a career grand Slam. Now Patrick, can he secure his fourth career major win this weekend? I think he can if he puts anything like Greg. That was impressive, right? Like, jeez, Louise, talk about showing off that Mr. Ducharme. Come on. But you think about Scottie Scheffler and what Oakmont is going to ask these players. It’s going to ask them every single question in the bag. Like Greg mentioned long and straight off the tee. Can you control your iron play into these greens but small landing areas and the variables that this golf course is going to present? I don’t want to say they’re similar to Augusta National, but there are some like qualities where you’re never really going to have an even lie on the fairway. There’s going to be wind whipping around. The wind’s blowing today. It almost feels like out here at Oakmont. And when I think about that, I think about the best iron player in the world, and it is by far Scottie Scheffler. And then you add in all the other areas of his game. He’s great off the tee, he’s great around the green and he is so much improved on the greens. He ranks inside the top 25 in every single strokes gain category. He’s the only player to do that. He’s been the best player in the world these past three years, but I think for the first time in his career, he’s the most well rounded and that is required at a US open. So I think Scheffler has a great chance to potentially win this week and bring the career Grand Slam to Royal Portrush. Yeah, I mean, I think about Scottie Scheffler and I think a lot about Steph Curry and if they just kept extending the three point line, you know and you’re like well that helps Steph Curry out. He can shoot from further away. He’s better at that than everybody else in the world. The tougher the golf course. The questions that Oakmont asks I mean they all kind of fit into who Scottie Scheffler is as a player. And I mean, you heard Patrick mention Augusta National in terms of these greens. When you look back at the past champions and then round at Oakmont, I mean, you’re looking at Cabrera, a winner at Augusta National, Dustin Johnson, a winner at Augusta National, Jack Nicklaus a winner at Augusta. Johnny Miller played so well so many times at Augusta. I mean, Scottie Scheffler has been the best player at the Masters the last four years. And obviously he’s coming in, you know, with with his game in the right place. I mean I think in the past couple of seasons, Scottie hasn’t been kind of peaking at this time in the schedule this year, maybe because of the injury early to the season. He’s peaking a little later. And I think that’s so helpful for him because obviously it kind of runs in to that really, really busy major schedule where you go PGA, US open into The Open Championship. He’s looking to become the first player since Jordan Spieth to win consecutive majors. Up next we got Bryson DeChambeau won the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst by just one stroke over Rory McIlroy. We’ll get to Rory in a second. But Patrick, how do you expect DeChambeau to defend his U.S. Title? I expect him to fare well. Shane and I were talking about it yesterday, how Bryson has kind of transformed into the modern US open player. He comes in with a new set of irons. He comes in with a new driver head. We mentioned how Bryson DeChambeau wasn’t changing things in his golf bag. That was really a recession indicator, but he’s changing everything. He’s trying to turn over every stone, pick up any advantage that he can. I think my question with Bryson is Oakmont requires a hair of creativity. I believe he’s not the best links golf player. That is a tournament, the Open Championship. That kind of has eluded him so far, a puzzle he has not figured out. And when Augusta National has gotten firm and fast, I know he’s figured it out. The last few years. He has struggled over the weekend there, so I think with the rain in the forecast and just being a US open in general and how Bryson hits it, his floor is so high. But I think the creativity needed around this place could pull him back ever so slightly. Yeah, and I just go to Bryson and his strength and distance off the tee, and the fact that this golf course is going to be wet and saturated, the rough is so thick. I mean, all that plays into the hands of Bryson DeChambeau. I mean, this guy is already becoming one of the best US golfers of all time. He has an opportunity to win his third. I mean, that matches the names of Tiger Woods and Hale Irwin. And you think about the players that have won four US opens in their careers. One of those players, the modern player in Jack Nicklaus. And you think about the places he’s won Wingfoot. You got to hit driver all over the place, really thick, rough. And then you go to Pinehurst. Not anything like Wingfoot. And he gets it done there. Oakmont, I think, is a golf course that he’s played well at before. If you remember, he played well in 2016, had a real chance through a couple of rounds to win that week, and he was just turning professional. I think Bryson looks at a golf course like this and says, how do I not win? Much like Scottie Scheffler, most golf courses, I’d be shocked if Bryson and Scottie aren’t there in the top five come Sunday. That’s what I like to hear. We talked about Rory losing by one stroke to DeChambeau last year, so I want to follow up about Rory. Six straight US open top tens, including back to back runner ups. Shane, he’s looking for redemption here. Do you think he’s going to find it. He’s got a comfy grouping I mean they did him. They did him the right service by putting him with Justin Rose and Shane Lowry. I’m not sure you could find two players he’d probably prefer to play with considering where his game is at. But right now, the driver, I mean, and you think about Rory McIlroy, historically one of the best drivers. I think I’ve said he is the best driver in the history of the game. He’s been lost off the tee the last couple of months, and you’ve got to drive the ball well at Oakmont. Hopefully after the missed cut in Canada, he comes out and spends a little bit of time in Florida now, obviously in and around Oakmont making sure the driver is working. But if you’re not finding fairways, you’re going to shoot high numbers at Oakmont. He missed the cut here in 2016, and I just don’t think Rory is playing the level of golf right now. Needed to play the toughest golf course in the world. Shane let me squash those concerns for you. Rory, after the non-conforming driver at the PGA decided to put in the newest TaylorMade model, the 35, he has gone back to the same specs that he won the Masters with. Obviously not the same driver head, but the same style, the same specs. So that should hopefully squash those concerns of you. He played that practice round with Shane Lowry early this morning. Was having having the ball on a string. And I think Rory McIlroy. What’s different about maybe in the past this year is how well-rounded he is. We thought about Rory McIlroy before this string of top ten finishes in the US open as almost a one trick pony, right? A guy who hit it really far off the tee, he could only win on soft golf courses. He took that to heart. He took that a bit personally. So I’m not sure if Rory is necessarily going to contend this week, but I would be pretty surprised if he doesn’t finish, at least on the second or third page of the leaderboard, just given how well rounded the nature of his game is right now. He has three wins in 2025 so far, and that is tied for most among the players that are going to be competing this weekend with Scottie Scheffler. All right. This is kind of a tough one Shane I’m going to start with you. What will be the winning score at Oakmont? I know this is difficult to predict. Yeah I mean we look at Oakmont and we always think over par. It’s really not trending in that direction. You showed the graphic earlier about Cabrera and how high the score was. You know, when he won and kind of held off Tiger. But for under has been the number typically to win at Oakmont for under one. In 2016. It won in 83 five under won in 73 and 53. So I’m just going to lean into the trend. I think four under is the number. The golf course is wet. It is saturated. If you find fairways, you can attack some of the shorter par fours like two and like 17. I think they’ll be some lower scores those first couple days lower than maybe people think when they think. Oakmont. You go back to 2016. We saw 60 fives from these players early in the week. I think you’ll see 4 or 5 under the first couple of rounds, you know, near the top of the leaderboard if not leading. And I think four under is kind of the final score that takes this thing home. I agree with Shane. I think it’s going to be red figures. I like it at two under though. I’m glad he mentioned kind of how this golf course cadence. There are some scoring opportunities both on the front and back. Nine the real meat of this golf course is seven through ten. That played the most difficult stretch there in 2016, and surprisingly, an amateur named Scottie Scheffler was one of the few players to play that stretch in under par fashion. So I think, like Shane mentioned, with the rain on this golf course, I walked the golf course today. Maybe just being a golfer, I was like, I can birdie this hole. I could birdie that birdie all these holes if I really wanted to. But with how difficult it actually is and how good these guys are, I don’t think we’re giving them enough credit. I think the winning score is going to be under par there at two under. So confident in your abilities. That’s what I like. Patrick McDonnell Shane Bacon, thanks for joining us here on HQ. Looking at the odds to win it all. Hey if our guys were in it, I think they’re pretty confident that they could win it all. Scottie Scheffler right now the world number one. He is the favorite to take home the trophy at the end at plus 280. Then we have defending U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau coming in at plus 700 right there. One major surprise from our sports line model Collin for this U.S. Open. Rory McIlroy past U.S. Open champ, third favorite at plus 11 or 1200 now. And he is expected to fall out of the top five. Very interesting there. For more on the betting angle of it all, let’s send it over to CNN’s Jade and Mike McClure. Mike McClure. You know, one of the reasons. Thank you, Jenny, by the way, one of the reasons we always do shows together is because we love betting golf and we love DFS golf. So let’s cover that real quick. We saw Jenny Dell with the odds board for the U.S. Open. How about you give me a winner? I’m going to be on Bryson here. See look, I think Bryson, he’s separated. You saw that odds board. He’s separated from Rory and Rahm a little bit. A very clear number two to Scottie Scheffler. And you’re not going to have any arguments from me there. But the price point and how good Scottie has been is still creating a little value on Bryson. I would like to call him basically Mister US open. You look his game and the way he profiles it just fits what is typically required at a US open. So well, the fact that we’ve seen a little bit of rain and are going to see a little bit of rain going to make this course play even longer, just continues to play into the strengths of what Bryson can do. I still like him on the putting surfaces as well, though. I think that this is a place that he’s ultimately going to be very comfortable, and I think that plus 750 while it’s been on the move is not low enough. Should be around plus 600. Mike, I do like Bryson DeChambeau. I’m going to take his live counterpart. I’m going to take Jon Rahm, who finally, Mike seems to be the Jon Rahm that we expected over the course of the last couple of years in majors. The form is certainly there for him. He can absolutely mash it off the tee, relatively accurate off the tee as well. I think he profiles very much like Bryson and I think he’s coming into form. We saw him almost chase down Scottie Scheffler at the PGA Championship. Now his odds are plus 1200. But I’m going to do that thing that I like to do when Scottie Scheffler is playing a tournament I’m going to do the without Scottie Scheffler market and you see it there in that lower third or you saw it at least it was plus 900. I’m going to go ahead and lose the three points because I do expect Scottie Scheffler to win this tournament. But Jon Rahm at plus 900 in the without Scottie Scheffler market I’m happy to take that. Before we get to some best bets let’s talk DFS. Mike like I promised you’re going to handle a couple of DFS goodbyes. I’m going to handle the negative a couple of bad buys. How about the guy you just talked about Jon Rahm. While I like him outright and I like him in betting markets, I absolutely love him in DFS where you simply don’t have to be perfect. You don’t need him to win the tournament. If he has a top 5 to 10 finish here, he is going to be relevant in DFS lineups. You’re talking about a pretty significant price difference in discount from guys like Scottie Scheffler and Bryson. And then how about Shane Lowry Shane Lowry pretty good overall last week at the RBC Canadian I like him in difficult tests of golf. One where we think that the winning score could be even par or maybe as low as 4 or 5 under the fact that you don’t need Shane Lowry to go out there and shoot 1213 under for the weekend to go win, that’s appealing to me. I love his approach play. I love the way he’s able to avoid double bogeys, which will be critical here at Oakmont. Give me Shane Lowry and Jon Rahm as good buys. I absolutely cosign both of those good buys. On to the negative. On to the DFS bad buys. I mean I’ll just say it right off the bat. It’s Rory McIlroy and Brooks Koepka. It’s for slightly different reasons. I mean, I think there the idea that Rory McIlroy can bounce back here at the US open after a few tournaments where he’s just not been the same or really since the Masters, I think that is I don’t think it’s likely, but I certainly think it’s plausible. But when you look at Rory’s price relative to some of the other guys in this tournament that we love, like Bryson, like a Scottie Scheffler, like a Jon Rahm, I just don’t see the I don’t see the need to play Rory McIlroy. And if the answer is, well, I’m going to play him because he’s not going to be owned very much. And the game theory says play Rory McIlroy. I think the name recognition is still going to get him some ownership. And frankly, if you want to be different in this tournament, or at least for the US open, from a DFS standpoint, there are so many ways to be different. Mike and I, with Rick Gehman, covered that on the early wedge last night. As far as Brooks Koepka, I mean, there’s again, no reason to go there. Yes, he will be low owned, but there’s plenty of guys that are low owned in Brooks Koepka’s range. His form is not good. Can he do it for a round? Yeah, I think he possibly can do it for a round. Can he do it for four rounds? I really don’t think so. Whether he makes the cut is an open question, but I think there’s so many guys in his range, including the Shane Lowry’s of the world, they’re going to have a much better tournament than Brooks Koepka. All right. We transition to our US open. Best bets. Let’s take one from you Mike. It’s the top 30 market. Write top 30 including ties as well. So yeah it’s going to be Patrick Cantlay. Top 30 -120 I think this is a good setup for Patrick Cantlay similar to some of the other players. I want to back Patrick Cantlay when I know that the winning score overall is going to be close to that even par range, his ability to simply avoid double bogeys is something that’s appealing to me. I love the way he plays off the tee. I love the approach. I just think that he’s probably closer to a top 5 to 10 golfer in this field than where he’s priced in these markets, so basically looking at a made cut, you’re very, very likely to get a top 30 finish out of Patrick Cantlay here. I’ll play it at -120. Yeah I think this is a perfect bet for Patrick Cantlay because he always has that one round that is super middling and you’re like okay he’s not going to win it anymore. But he certainly ca. Top ten top 20 and certainly top 30. Love the number at -120 I’m going to go to the top end region otherwise known as the nationality props. I’m going to go top Korean and it’s going to be Si Woo Kim. I actually like how he profiles not a super long hitter. So that’s a strike against him I suppose. But the guys he he he’s up against really aren’t super long hitters outside of Ben. On what I love about Si Woo Kim in this market is that he’s got the accuracy he’s got, doesn’t have a ton of distance, but everything else really checks out. I really like his ability to putt relative to the other three in this market, which of course are Sungjae Im, Tom, Kim and Ben. On. The only guy that I’m super worried about Ben on a little bit, but it would be sungjae im because he’s just, you know, the probably the better overall golfer than Kim. But Sungjae has been so bad on approach it’s going to catch up to him. It always does and it has this entire 2025. So give me Si Woo Kim plus 180. In this top South Korean market. Mike McClure we covered. We covered a bunch right there. We covered some winners. We covered some good guys and bad buys. And of course our best bet. And you can catch all of our content on the early wedge. You’ll see us all over the place, but including in your podcast feed and on the Sports Line YouTube channel. DFS shows betting shows, you name it, round recaps. We’ve got it on the early wedge. Back to Jenny Dell. Thanks fellas. I’m excited to check out the early wedge. And thanks for joining us on this hour CBS sports HQ. For all the latest. Stay right here with us. More to come. We got mandatory minicamp

Greg Ducharme, Mike McClure, Shane Bacon, Patrick McDonald, and Sia Nejad join CBS Sports HQ to preview the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club.

(0:00:00) Oakmont Course Breakdown
(0:05:07) Biggest Storylines: Scheffler, DeChambeau, McIlroy
(0:14:30) Best Bets + Predictions to win

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