BEST BETS: 2025 PGA Championship Odds, Picks | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Matt Every to dish out best bets for the 2025 PGA Championship.

#SportsBetting #Gambling #Betting #EarlyWedge #PGATour #GolfPicks #OneandDone #PGAChampionship #QuailHollow #Golf

0:00 Storylines for this year’s PGA Championship
6:42 Notable Groups, First Round Leaders
17:00 Matchups & Finishing Positions
30:00 EC’s Auto Fades & Outrights
38:07 Longshots, One & Done
46:36 Recap & Matt Every’s PGA TOUR memories

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Welcome to the Early Wedge Tuesday best bet show. I am your host Eric Cohen. We are here for the PGA Championship, one of the biggest events of the season. and we have a blockbuster show for you. Now, before we bring in the stars of the show, let’s see how we did last week. And how about Jason Soil hitting a 40 to1 with Ryan Fox chipping in in the playoff at Myrtle Beach. And the crew went 52 and one on matchup wagers. We made you some money if you blindly tailed us. Now, on this show, it’s a little bit different than previous weeks. We have the great Cadot. He’s here. Don’t worry about that. But we have Jason Soil and Patrick McDonald are covering the event out uh in North Carolina. So they are not on the show. Let’s bring in the surprise guest. We have a two-time PGA Tour winner. He played 279 events on the tour, 10 top fives, 21 top 10s, and he is the back-to-back winner of the API in 2014 to 2015. It is Matt Everick. Matt, glad to have you on the show. And also we have the host of the early edge every Monday through Friday at 10 am Eastern. One of the best golf betters on the planet, Seia Nad. Matt, I’m gonna start with you. And by the way, happy birthday. Sea uh turning 27 on Sunday. Uh just so happy belated birthday. Uh Matt, welcome to the show. Glad to have you on PGA Championship. You’re thrown in the fire. Uh any gut feelings on Quail Hollow this week? Well, first of all, guys, uh I’m on site as well. I’m just making time for you tonight on on Tuesday night. Um do any any inside Wait, what’ you say? Any any insight on Quail Hollow just from being out there this? Um I walked it today. It’s just brutal, dude. And look that there’s been a few changes throughout the last 15 years here. Obviously last year, uh they they regrassed the greens a little bit. Um but for the most part, the the bones of this place have have been the same. And it just kicks the crap out of you. I mean, it just does. It is a brutal golf course setup normal. Um, this rain we’ve gotten to me, it just shrinks. It just shrinks the guys that can win even more. I feel like there’s five or six guys that have a realistic look and then, you know, do you want to obviously two of those guys are Rory and Rory and and Scotty. Do you want to touch them at four or five to one? I mean, it’s it’s it’s it’s the world we’re living in right now with those two. Well, you just, you know, started our storyline segment, made it super easy here. So, you said five or six can win, but see, I I don’t know. Are you going to go that deep? I mean, yeah. I mean, obviously five or six can win. I mean, I I guess there’s probably 20 or 30 that technically can win, but Matt kind of punctuated it with you got Rory, you got Scotty, and you got Bryson. And it does feel like the big three. It does feel like a Boston Celtics, Miami Heat situation where it’s the big three and it’s everybody else. That doesn’t mean those everybody else can’t win. Like there’s guys that I think John Rom, right? Uh we Neman maybe all of a sudden shows up at a major. Patrick Kentley who’s been playing well. We haven’t even mentioned Xander Schoffley yet. We can go down the list. There’s at least 15 to maybe 30 golfers that you could make an argument could be there on Sunday afternoon. But the gap between the top three and everybody else, especially at a course like this that Matt Ever just kind of explained, it’s going to kick you around a little bit. And you got to have the distance. At least you don’t have to have the distance, but you’re going to want to have the distance to have that built-in advantage. And those top three names, not only are they playing well across the board, they have the distance component as well. They have the major history as well. They have the recent form. They have form at Quail Hollow. Like, they check so many boxes. And not everybody’s going to check those boxes. Does that mean the others can’t win? No. It just means their odds of winning are so much dramatically lower than the top three. So, we’ll talk about it. Listen, that there are some other names here that we can talk about in the outright market and in other markets, but certainly those top three are the top three for a good reason. Yeah. And I think when it comes to the outright market, it’s just tough to play anybody else. Now, we’ll talk about that later in the show, but I want to give you guys a trivia question. M so since 2011 only three golfers have gone on to win another major after their master’s victory. Can you name them? Just shout out a name when three go they they’ve won I mean like guys like Adam Scott never won another major speed is one. Okay that’s a good one. Uh two other ones. One of the one probably that’s No, actually it’s not. That’s that’s the second hardest one. Wait, was it a was it a you said a PJ championship winner or Masters? You said Masters winner. So Rory Mroy, uh, basically there only three guys since 2011 that have won another major. Jordan Spe obviously is one of them. Uh, won the PGA, won uh, the Open or sorry, won the US Open and won the Open Championship. Hasn’t won the PGA yet. Scotty. Scotty Sheffller. Very good. That’s number two because he won the Masters. And who is the third that also won a second Masters from 2011 and beyond? I’ll give you a hint. He’s on the Live Tour. Uh, Brooks. Brooks. or Oh, no. Brooks didn’t win the Masters today. Brooks hasn’t won the Masters yet. Bubba Wat Bubba Watson. Yes. Bubba Watson is so only three guys. So, when you’re talking about betting Rory at a short number this week and you hear that stat, Matt, do you put anything into that? Like, is there something after winning the Masters that No. So, you just throw that You’re throwing out my storyline. Yes. Yes. Me, too. I mean, Rory is a generational talent. He is He’s on another tour, man. When that guy’s clicking, he he he really Scotty, too. But Rory is just he was touched by the hand of God. He is he is he you touched on it, Sea. He is He is The separation between those two is ridiculous right now. Yeah. See, you’re not, you know, I love to play the uh the meaningless trends. I don’t care if it’s football props or golf or anything like that. We tried this, what was it earlier in the year at the Cognizant? like nobody outside of the top five had ever won or had won the Cognizant after two rounds. It was top five after two rounds and they hadn’t won since beyond 2010 or like in the 2000s and yet Joe Highmith makes the cut on the number and then wins. Something like that. I think it was round one top 10. I thought that was something like that. Yeah, something like that. Yeah. And it just blew up my whole uh my whole theory there. So, you’re throwing that out. Okay, fair enough. Now, we’re speaking of round one. Let’s see the featured pairings that they put together. featured threesomes that they put together and producer Matt does a great job putting this graphic together. Some interesting ones. Now, Matt Every, what’s your favorite of these four that you can see on screen? Well, guys, I I’m actually covering Rory, Scotty, and Xander on Thursday morning. Go for that. Yeah, I’m walking with them on the featured group coverage on ESPN. Oh, that is awesome. That’s gonna be sick. You couldn’t have handpicked a better trio, obviously. Wow. No. Yeah, it’s going to be killer. I’m worried about like the crowds. It’s it’s it’s soaking wet out here, man. And then like where they’re walking, you know, it’s hilly. It’s just a recipe for your feet to slide out underneath you out here right now. Um that that group by far for me guys is is the one my eyes are going to. Uh as far as the others, you know, name that Ludvig Jordan Speed group catches my eye a little bit. Reads a little bit of of an enigma right now. I don’t we don’t really know what we’re going to get out of him. Uh speed kind of the same if you ask me. If he drives it good this week, I don’t I don’t hate Jordan Speed. Uh Ludvig with the Irons, he’s he worries me right now. Um something’s going on there with him. But he’s also the kind of talent where he’s one of those guys. He’s not right right there with Rory and Scotty, but man, if he has his good stuff, he’s he’s the next closest. Uh, Matt, I want to ask you about actually covering, you know, in the feature group. What’s that like for those of us who watch at home? I mean, is it are you walking the course? Do you have a cart? Like I I kind of wonder how that work. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. So, you do have a cart most weeks, but it’s kind of a pain, especially if you’re covering usually featured groups are big the bigger names, so you’re covering groups with crowds. It’s tough to maneuver with a cart. So, I try to stay a a lot of guys stay right around the group. I try to stay ahead of them maybe a full shot. So like if they’re teeing off I’ll be out in the fairway. I know what they’re hitting for them. I mean I played long enough to know what they’re hitting. Um you can get the numbers from your producer in your ear how far they are. So I I know that. I can also hear the caddy conversation in my ear because the if the boom mic’s turned on on the T- box. So a lot of it’s just feeling it out out there. And uh and then as far as like the the actual commentating part, I just try to be myself as as much as I can. That is awesome. Well, Cadot is actually picking for one of his first round leaders, one of the guys that you’re covering. So, let’s take a look at your five pack. I mean, you’re going with some chalk here, but I guess you can’t really argue with Rory at at Quail Hollow, can you? And for the record, I didn’t want to go with five. You know, I’d like to keep it at like four. Uh, but two of these are such long shots that we’re just talking about like, you know, a buck or two depending on people’s tendencies here. Hard for me to stay away from Roy. So, I think if you watch the Early Wedge Sunday show that like that live show, we also like set up the the next tournament which would of course been this tournament. You know, I like Bryson. We’ll talk about that later. And the only reason I liked Bryson over Rory for example, is because at the time Rory was plus 475 and Bryson, again, at the time, this is just two days ago, and Bryson was plus,400. Well, now that number has moved, so they’re a lot closer together. But still, I’m not paying for Rory at plus475, regardless of how generational he is and how great he’s been at Quail Hollow. All of those things, it’s just too short of a number. However, I can sneak in a first round leader number at quadruple the price for a guy that should be going out. Not a weatherman, but should be going out. Hopefully, for Matt’s case, too, it’s good weather for that group because we got morning tea times, but it’s not too early where it’s going to be like a little bit on the colder side. I use that term rel like you know in a relative sense it’ll still be touching 70 but I I think Rory’s going out at an optimal time. So I I think this plus 1600 is worth it for a guy that just absolutely owns this course. The other four I’ll just touch on them quickly. Patrick Kentley we’re going to talk about later in the show. The putter’s been there two out of the last three tournaments. That’s what’s really been failing him. Uh the approach play, the ball striking is so good for Patrick Kentley. And I will say his form at Quail Hollow, if you look at his track record, it’s not very good. It’s very middling finishes in the 20s and in the 30s. What’s failed him at Quail Hollow specifically is the approach play and he is absolutely dialed in. I think he’s I think he’s it’s eight tournaments in a row where he’s gained on approach in a very very significant way. The long irons, the short irons, everything it’s clicking for Patrick Can. So, I could see that clicking in the first round. Cory Connors, we’ll talk about later. Love the number at 60 to1. I have multiple bets on him in different ways. And then the long shots, Davis Thompson, an absolute bomber. I don’t think he can win this tournament, but can he get really hot for a round? Absolutely. And Harris English, I think, is super sneaky. Not the course fit necessarily people are looking for, but 110 to one. This guy’s a technician. He can putt. Uh he’s a little longer than people think. And I cheated and I looked at the cheat sheet, by the way, after I put these picks in. And I noticed I think Matt Ever is kind of fond of Harris English as well. So stay tuned for that. All right. So Matt, outside of, you know, the group that you’re covering, three obviously the favorites, is are there a couple guys you would keep an eye on in round one, that you might want to play at a number like CIA did? Yeah. Well, look, when I when I look at the first round market, I I like the juicy numbers. I I steer away from the favorites. For me, it’s a it’s an opportunity for a guy to catch lightning in a bottle. I was one of those guys when I was playing. Like my ceiling was high. It was just it wasn’t always there, but when it was there, it was really good. We kind of see that with a guy like Keith Mitchell and I’m not sure what his number is right now, but I think earlier in the week he was around 70 to1. I know he’s held a bunch of them already, but look man, these guys that know how to play offense out there when it’s clicking, you got to ride them. And uh for the record though, I like every single one of his picks uh that he made. Um great demeanors for majors. Every one of those guys, they’re all they’re all kind of the same. Maybe Royy’s a little different, but they’re all just kind of, you know, they’re not getting flustered out there. So, uh, Matt, do you remember the last first round lead that you held? Uh, yeah, probably, uh, Greensboro. Um, 17 maybe. Wendham. Actually, I believe it was the API in 2020, right before CO. You’re right. I missed the cut too after that. Oh, dude, it was so bad. But you shot a seven under 65. Uh you were above Rory Mroy in round one of the API in 20 and then the world obviously shut down. Uh the next week next week next week. So the last first round leader that people had met before co a great trivia question. Remember that. Listen you hear you want to hear a crazy story. So okay the next week the world shuts down at TPC, right? And when you when you get paid on tour, there’s a text that goes out right after or I’m sorry, when the tournament finishes on Sunday, there’s an automated text that goes out and it gives you your FedEx Cup ranking, how many points you made, how much money you made, yada yada yada. Okay, so Friday the world shuts down and I shot like four or five over in the first round at TPC and uh like Hideki was leading. Harris Harris English is uh was in solo second. All right. And our lockers are right next to each other and I’m pulling into the course to get my stuff because we don’t, you know, tournament got cancelled, whatever. And I’m going in there and I just uh they had just decided that they were going to chop the purse, you know, evenly 144 guys or whatever the number was. Well, before that, they sent out a text and it said like, “Matt, every zero FedEx comes uh tied for 125th uh zero dollars.” Which is normal, right? Like that that was the end of the tournament. So I’m like, “Oh, sick.” And Harris goes, “Hey every look at this.” and he shows me a text and it says Harris English like $1.8 million and then they pulled it like a an hour later. I mean could you imagine getting that? Oh dude. Oh that’s like we are here for the stories. C can I ask you Matt real quick? Were you with him only when he got the 1.8 text or were you with him as well? He had already he had already happened like like I had already gotten the text that they were chopping the the purse before I was going into the locker room and we were just both there cleaning our stuff out at the same time and he was like look at this and I was like ah by the way my favorite bulldog ever Harris English as good as it gets. I mean you’re a Florida guy though right? You’re but you know I like a lot of those guys over there. I mean, the for the most part on the tour, everyone’s pretty solid. I I just have to ask before we go to break here, have you have you been How many uh cocktail party games have you been to? Uh football games? Well, I live there. I live in Jacksonville now, so I’ve been to plenty. Not a lot recently. Uh actually, I was at the one this year when DJ uh hurt his hurt his arm, but it’s been rough seeing lately for the games that game. There are bucket lists for some people. A lot of you watching on the show, we all would like to go to the Masters or the Players, etc. That’s one of them. The world’s uh largest outdoor cocktail party. I know it’s not called that anymore. Always on CBS. I got to get there one day. Definitely on the bucket list. Coming up next, Matt already knows what this show’s about cuz he’s making around the world picks. Find out next after we hear from one of our sponsors. Get ready. Wait a minute. I thought we were going tubing. All three Sonic the Hedgehog movies and Knuckles are now streaming on Paramount Plus and everyone loves it. Every adventure, just try to keep up. Every face off. This ends now. And every moment that will have you saying, “Where have you been my entire life? It’s showtime.” All three Sonic the Hedgehog movies and the entire Sonic Universe are now streaming on Paramount Plus. If you are enjoying this show, which is I hope you are because see and I sure are talking with Matt. It’s awesome. That story was so awesome. He said so good. So good. Make sure to to to follow the Sports Line page, like this video, and uh you know, we the more followers, the more likes we get. As you always encourage, CIA, the better. All right, let’s talk a little uh matchups. and see you’re gonna I we’re going to talk about Harris English who’s Matt’s guy, but I want to get your first round play first because this one really intrigues me. Yeah. So, this one, you know, I always look for for round one matchups on the early edge, which if that’s new to people, that’s the 10:00 morning show, Monday through Friday. I always have matchups, and they’re not necessarily always three balls. Sometimes I’ll just kind of reduce it to a headto-head. This one feels like a head-to-head, though. In fact, it kind of feels like a I don’t I’m not trying to be disrespectful here, but Tristan Lawrence and Nick Dunlap are just not playing good golf at all. Now, they do profile well for this course. They are bombers, but what they’ve been doing off the tea, especially in Nick Dunlap’s case, has been really, really bad. Harry Hall, he had a stint like a couple of months ago where things weren’t going well for him in terms of like his ball striking. We know he’s always a pretty good putter and and the putter’s still there for him and I think that’s going to be important this week. But it does feel like the last couple of tournaments we’re seeing sort of like vintage. I shouldn’t say vintage. We’re seeing like Harry Hall’s B+ game. And frankly, again, I’m not trying to be disrespectful here. The B minus game should get him here in this three ball. Plus 105 other places. The plus 105 I grabbed at at FanDuel. Um I can’t remember what B MGM’s price was. I think it was plus 100. Same with uh DraftKings. But I I think this is a really good one because again, the other two are just Lawrence and Dunlap are are just in really bad form. And if you’re talking about a course that can really eat you up, uh, good luck if you’re not in good form, especially when you’re going up against a guy in Harry Hall that can sink pucks. That’s that’s great. Hey, listen. If you look at my parlay, which I’ll talk about here shortly, two of those guys are in there. See you. All right. Now, tell us about uh Matt’s boy, Harris English. Yeah, real quick on this one because both of these guys are playing really well. Like JT Poston is playing well. Harris English is playing well. If you look at JT Poston’s cut streak, I mean, the guy just is a cut maker. It’s pretty crazy. I think his price on DraftKings is 6,400. Maybe worth a look as like a safe option, but I actually don’t think he profiles super well for this course. Harris English a little longer than JT Poston. Uh Harris English not maybe not the putter JT Poston is, but pretty darn close, especially lately. The approach play, the ball striking with Harris English a little bit better. Finishing positions a little bit uh better as of late. So, I think we’re getting some value here. Harris English minus 115 over JT Poston. All right, Matt, I love to pick players to win the top nationality plays and you just fit right in with a plus 335. That’s what I’m talking about. Yes. Top African Eric Van Royan. Why? Well, it kind of is the same theory that CIA’s going with in his three ball matchup here. I I we basically have to beat uh BMster here, Dean, and the the other guys are in terrible form. CBZ’s awful form right now. Higgo, I know he just won, but I’m I’m not buying it. Uh that that place is wide open off the tea. Yes, this place is long, but you need to be somewhat accurate here. You’re going to get penalized for missing fairways. Uh where he won, there’s zero penalty uh for missing fairways. So, I’m hesitant there. I I think there’s just a ton of value here for EVR uh at, you know, plus plus 330 where we’re basically just have to beat Dean. In my eyes, I really like it. He’s playing some nice golf. Can I interrupt real quick, EC? Yeah. Because Matt and I are totally on the same page, which means we’re going to have either great weeks or we’re going to have bad weeks. It looks like we’ll see how the rest of the show goes, but I was on uh HQ with Jenny Dell uh earlier this morning and and I like every time there’s a certain spot on Tuesdays when I’m on, I like to give out a top nationality play. This is the one I gave out. EVR, Top African. So, we are we are like the synergy is real right now. His energy is real now. I don’t know if Ricky Fowler’s real right now, but Matt Fitzpatrick really not playing all that well. Is that why you’re fading him and going with Ricky? Yeah, kind of both. I was shocked uh that this number was a coin flip between these two. Um Ricky is playing some better golf. Last week he had his stuff for a little bit a bit of a stumble I believe in in the third round, but obviously he got his first win here in in 2012. Uh, I’m a believer in Ricky Fa in Ricky Fowlers’s Look, this is a bet where both of these guys are probably going to miss the cut. I just think Ricky’s gonna miss it by less. Um, I I really do. I I I it wouldn’t shock me if Ricky makes the cut, but I’m kind of fading Fitzpatrick here. His results have been terrible. We got a couple of uh I think he has a couple of uh I wouldn’t even call them made cuts because there were no cut starts at uh what do you call it? Oh, that like the the uh true signature events. Yeah, truest and and Hilton Head, but other than that, that’s been a whole lot of nothing out of him. Um I think this is a a pretty easy cash. So, it’s interesting that you say that both are going to miss the cut because I’m trying to get in on this whole missed cut parlay thing. Go ahead. Yeah, Eric, one one more thing. If you if you look up there, I have this uh software that I use called bet the number and if it has a matchup tool where if you plug these two in, like the last six rounds that they’ve play, the last six tournaments they’ve played, Ricky is just kicking the crap out of him in every single statistical category. So it’s interesting and that that doesn’t happen often like 10 of them will pop up and you might get like seven and seven and three or six and four or something but this is ex extremely lopsided right now and and it’s and it’s even money and and that’s what’s the name of the software again? I haven’t heard that. Uh it’s called Bet the Number. Bet the number. See, do you know that? Yeah, I’m familiar with it. I’ve used it. It’s actually a great platform. You know, I use Rick’s site uh for most of my statistical analysis. Bet the number is is is excellent as well. Mhm. So, I I used Rick’s site to give me some stats here for uh this parlay, this miss the cut parlay with uh Tristan Lawrence, Nick Dunlap, and and Patty Harrington to miss the cut. And I’m getting plus 219. So, listen to this. Uh Lawrence has missed 10 to 12 cuts worldwide since December. Dunlap’s form is dreadful. Four missed cuts and second to last at the RBC Heritage and last at the truest among guys that that didn’t uh you know that finished the tournament. And Patty Harrington has missed nine of his last 10 in PGA Tour related events, not including the senior tour. Uh, including he also missed last year’s PGA Championship. I mean, these guys I think we’re all in agreement. These guys are not going to make the cut. Would be a surprise if they did. That’s a layup. Can I ask you something? Did you Cuz I know some of these are pre-crafted. You You handmade this one, correct? Yeah. I I try to make I try to hand make a lot of my parlays here. This one is is EC uh approved. Uh a handcrafted. Now this one I did not approve which is our one we do if you watch the show every week. Top Canadian Courtney Connor’s plus 160. CA usually has it or I have it. This week is my turn. I mean Conor’s striping it off the TN on approach. He’s gained in seven straight events TA Green and more than five and a half strokes in six of those seven. He has to beat Taylor Pend, Mackenzie Hughes, Nick Taylor, and Adam Hadwin. I was looking at McKenzie Hughes here who almost won last week at Myrtle Beach, but he has a dreadful history and five missed cuts in six PGA Championship starts. Uh Nick Taylor is one for four in the PGA with his best being a T68. Can’t play him either. I’m out on Pendr. I’m out on Hadwin. So by proxy, uh we’re going with Cory Connors at plus 160 to cash for us once again. I hate both of them last week uh with Fleetwood was one of them. I think Connors was another one. Uh so hey, we’ll take it where we can. All right, on to the next one. Finishing positions and CIA, I’m going to start with you because you’re going with top 30s conservative. Speaking of players that that we like, Cory Connors just talked about at plus 105. I was debating the plus 160 your play or I should say our play that we go to Top Canadian all the time. So, I I had some hesitation because I think Nick Taylor’s starting to come around a little bit and Taylor Pendendrick’s certainly a good course fit. And if memory serves, Taylor uh both Taylor, Nick Taylor and Taylor Pendrith have some decent history at Quail Hollow. That doesn’t mean I don’t like your plus 160 by the way, but it just means that when I was like deciding between the two, I figured let me take the T30 at plus 105 and if somehow Pend or Taylor kind of sneak in to 28, then you know I’m still okay. In other words, if he if Connors finishes behind them. So again, Connors is just so solid. His recent form, uh course history, I mean, he just checks a lot of boxes. Can he win? Like, I don’t know about that. But to be, you know, safely tucked in the top 25, I think that’s where, uh, he lives. And plus 105 is a good number here. Patrick Reed, I mean, speaking of good at Quail Hollow, by the way, he hasn’t played it in a little while, but good recent form on live, you know, his major form at the Masters was was very good. And he came in and people I think half the people were like, “Well, yeah, that was Patrick Reed of old. Let’s see like how he is now.” Like people don’t care like all that stuff. And he played awesome. I think he’s going to play awesome again. Plus 125, top 30. I’ll take that. Yeah. And I’m playing him top 20 uh at plus 210. So I like that CU and I have some synergy. Let’s look at Matt’s picks. and he’s going with a few top 20s with some numbers, including a guy, Matt, that won last week and is getting plus 230 for a top 20 after just winning a signature event in Sea. It’s weird. Uh I like that Patrick Reed pick too, guys. Um yeah, I two wins this year for Se Straa. He’s playing some quality golf. Last week, uh you know, before the week started, all we heard was the Bombers are going to do well there. Just bomb and figure it out. And Seth figured it out his own way. He’s not a bomber by any means, but he’s super consistent. He’s going to be in the fairway a lot this week. And it he’s a guy that has great form. I mean, there’s only one guy that’s won last or I guess there’s two that have won last week coming into this week. But, uh, you’re going to give me a top 10 player in the world and Seth Straa plus 220 or whatever it is, plus 230 for a top 20 all day long. Uh, Kantlay, let’s move on to him. Top 20 plus 155. Uh see you touched on a little bit earlier, dude. This guy uh te to green really really good off the tea, gaining plenty of uh not plenty of strokes, but he’s up there off the tea in recent form and then into the green as well. And I just think over the course of 72 holes, the elite ball strikers out here, the guys that do it well off the tea, I’m not just talking about bombers. I’m talking about like long relatively straight and then quality like mid to long iron players are going to have such an opportunity uh to separate themselves here over 72 holes. You just can’t run from that part of the bag and I think can’t lay it’s it’s just it’s it it’s inevitable that he’s going to finish in the top 20. I’m not betting him to win though. Inevitable. Well, Matt, you you aren’t familiar with the do not bet list. We’re going to talk about that in the next segment. I can’t wait. Just wait. But I want to throw out Xander Schoffley uh for top 10 this week at plus 180. In his last two at Quail Hollow, solo second. I mean, both of them pretty darn good. But how about in his last nine majors, he has seven top 10 finishes, which is literally unbelievable. And we’re getting plus 180 with ties. Okay, I’m good with that. Coming up next, uh, the do not bet list had a scare last week, a big scare, but fortunately, we’re still clear. We’re going to introduce Matt to it after we hear from one of our sponsors. The crowd loves champions. Gladiator 2 is an epic spectacle. To amuse you is my only wish. The glory is yours, not mine. Very good. Gladiator 2, rated R, now streaming on Paramount Plus. All right, see, I’m throwing this one at you right off the bat here. First, Jeff in the in the chat has two questions. You like Aaron Ry, top Englishman at plus 650, plus 700, or Ash, top lefty at plus 275. Any any opinions from either one of you guys on those? I’m I’m not looking at the lefty market right now, but I I do happen to be looking at the top English market. So, the Aaron Ry one, I actually see it at plus 700, which is a great number. It’s just that there there’s so much talent in there. Tommy Fleetwood, Terrell Hatton, Justin Rose, Fitzpatrick, yeah, maybe. Harry Hall, yeah, maybe. And then it it drops off a little bit with Lorie Caner and Matt Wallace and then a few others. I think that’s maybe worth like a sprinkle. This is one of those situations where I think you could pick two guys. Like if you really like Tommy Fleetwood or you’re you’re afraid of Tommy Fleetwood or Terrell Hatton, I think you could bet Tommy Fleetwood and then also sprinkle on Aaron Ry and make money either way if one of those two hit. All right, I I’m with you there. All right, let’s bring in the do not bet list so Matt can see what it’s all about. So Matt, these are players that I just can’t bet to win tournaments. You don’t like him or what? I I mean guys that have cost me uh to or cost me money over the years. Uh Xander Schoffley. Okay. So it’s he’s fine because he’s over 10 to one. He’s not he does not count on the auto fade list this week, but Keith Mitchell and especially Shane Lowry gave me big sweat last week. Yeah. We’re still clear. I mean, Victor Hoblin won at the Val Spar. I get it. Is there anyone outside of Kentlay who I know you like on this list that I should be afraid of this week? Uh well, he’s not like a household name like these guys yet, but he’s he shows up in a lot of events, but I I do have a little bit of of caution when it comes to closing golf tournaments. Andrew Novak for me is oh is I mean even in in you know they both of those guys got it across the finish line together in New Orleans, but it it looks shaky coming in. Uh and he this is he’s a really really good player. I mean a really good player. Um his name’s not going anywhere. But as far as like getting across the finish line um because that’s what I see in these names too here too here a lot. Uh he would be a name that I would keep an eye out in in the near future. Uh that’s fair. Uh he might be another addition to this list. See, is there anybody I should be worried about on this list this week? I if you’re going to worry about anybody, you know, I have a I have a feeling Sunjm is going to have a good tournament in spite of his just a crazy bad approach. Really good history here and really good off the tea and he’s kind of doing everything else right. It’s just that approach play that that’s been a problem. Still, man, I mean, whatever. I I I think I have I have a little bit of a feeling on him, but I don’t think he’s going to win. Patrick Kentlay would be the one I’d be worried about. I think in spite of the major history and in spite of his history at Quail Hollow, I think everything is trending in such a good direction that he absolutely could at least have you sweating this Sunday afternoon. I can I touch on Canlay real quick? Sure. Um, I’ve been out with him numerous times with other worldclass players and he he does make them look like they’re on a different tour. Like his good stuff is freaking impressive, dude. He lives pin high. Works it the correct way every time. Like not all the guy not everyone out here does that. Like it’s it’s pretty it’s pretty impressive his his really good stuff. Well, Sad is not just picking one outright. He’s picking two this week and one at 45 to one. Sea is none other than Oh, it’s Patrick Canley. Yeah. So, when we did the early wedge show on Sunday, that live show that we do, I gave out Bryson at 14 to1. I’m modifying the number. Honestly though, like because that was an early wedge show, I I very well could have kept the plus,400, but this is where you can find it now. Plus 950. Just so everybody knows, if you listened to that show, me and Mike Mccclure also said, “If you like Bryson, bet him in the without Scotty in Rory market at plus 10,000.” So on Sunday, if you watched our show, you could have gotten Bryson at plus400 and plus 1,000 10 to1 in the without market. Uh but here we are plus 950 outright. I still like it. I just, you know, before it was it was triple the odds of Rory and Scotty and now it’s more like double. Uh but yeah, we we’ve talked about Bryson. We talked about why we like Bryson. I don’t need to get into that or can’t for that matter. But I I I don’t really want to bet any more than this cuz my investment in Bryson is going to be big enough um at plus well I got it at plus400 but where I I just don’t feel comfortable betting a lot of guys. There are guys like Justin Thomas that are on my radar. We Neman I think is interesting like and and I put in a couple of long shots but it’s Bryson and can’t lay for me and then I’m out. See youa after one of our early wedge shows about a month ago. I put in my bets for the PGA and Bryson was one of them at 17 to1. I’ll be you know I parlayed it and got it at 10 and something to one. I’ll explain that here shortly. But another guy that I bet and I also I bet two guys that day. Bryson was one and Xander Schoffley was the other. And it’s pretty cool to see that Matt Ever and I are thinking alike on Xander. Why do you like him? Uh just everything’s kind of trending in the right direction for Xander. And and another reason I like him is because I’m not gonna bet Rory and Scotty. I like them too, but I’m not touching him at four or five to one. Um Xander is a beast off the tea. I think I don’t know if the general golfing public realize how long he is, especially for his stature. It’s it is it’s eye opening how long he is. Um, also the approach play for him specifically 175 to 225. Nobody’s nobody’s been better from that distance in the last uh, six tournaments. Um, his demeanor is really, really good for a major. Look, this place is going to be really hard this week. It’s long. The rough’s thick. If you miss a fairway, you’re probably going to have a tough time making par. Uh, bad things are going to happen. Sanders about as cool as cool as they come. Um I I just I like the number on him this week at right around 20 to1. How about Hideki at 40 to1? Hideki I mean gave us a great third round last week and then imploded in the fourth round. Does that scare you a bit? No, not really. I mean he’s he’s a freak. I’ll take a flyer on Hideki any day. He’s clearly doing something good enough to where it it’s potentially there. I covered him quite a bit last week actually and I thought he threw away a lot of like sloppy shots which isn’t really that concerning for me there like like on uh on 14 I mean the the first day he’s the only guy that missed the green and right over the pin he made bogey but like that’s a whole a lot of guys were making two on that’s potentially two shots there at some point like this guy almost made it all the way back up to the lead. Um I I like his fit here as well if he’s striping it. There’s no there’s I’m not gonna say nobody better, but man, he’s really tough to beat. Doesn’t need to need to putt great. We just need like mediocre putting out of Hideki. So, uh taking a bit of a flyer there as well. I also don’t mind JT. I know he’s not on there, but uh I like JT this week. Okay, that’s And JT’s a guy that we haven’t talked about. I was going to ask one of you guys about him at some point. JT played great last week. Uh gave it a run in the final round. See, I think you had him at some point, didn’t you? have a bet on JT at some point or it well it was the live Sunday show where at that point he was plus 650 he was three shots back and and me and Mike and and Jason were talking about it and I I I went in on that and frankly I thought when he hit the back nine I’m like okay he’s catching these guys he’s catching Lowry and Straa and it just it just didn’t happen but uh JT is is awesome. So, one of the things about betting uh major tournaments uh early is you can sometimes get a great number and sometimes you can get a lousy number. And with both of my plays, I bet them on April 15th. Bryson I got at plus,700 and Xander I got at plus700. Bryson number looks great. The Xander number doesn’t look so great. Now, I did parlay them. Uh you guys know how I like to do that with three NHL teams and so both are locked in at 77 to1 and I feel a lot better about that on the first try. Yeah, there you go. So, I feel good about both those guys. You guys have both kind of talked about it. See, you talked about Bryson. Matt, you talked about Xander. So, not really much more that I could add. Both have uh good course history. I like the way that Xander is playing of late. And Xander’s kind of making a rally in final rounds. He just missed the top 10 the other day. But if you notice, his final round scoring average since uh the players has been pretty darn good. That’s a guy that if he’s two or three shots back heading into Sunday, I would bet on just kind of like CIA did uh during that live show. Xander would be a guy that I would take a longer look at uh going into that. Now, time for long shots. I have some ideas for some parlays, but Matt’s gonna I’m gonna I’m gonna have you go first here. You got a couple of top five bets. Uh start with your boy Harris English. Yeah, let’s do it. Uh see, you mentioned you didn’t think this was a great course fit for Harris. I think it might be, dude. Uh, I know it’s I know it’s long and Harris is getting up there in age, maybe late 30s, mid to late 30s, which is old for the tour these days, but he’s a freaking horse, man. That guy, his ball flight is is penetrating. It’s it’s extremely strong. And then with the irons, he lives on the back of the ball. I mean, when his stuff’s really good, it’s the the ceiling is high. Um I I don’t see him lifting up the trophy, but man, if he got in the hunt, I’d be pissed if I missed out on it. So, uh I like I like that number right there. And kind of the same exact feeling about Gary Woodland, a guy who’s shown a little bit of form this year. Perfectly capable of handling the moment out here uh and having a nice finish on the weekend. I don’t really mess with these top five markets that much, guys, but uh figured I’d throw throw a curveball this week, you know. Uh and no problem with that. Makes makes a ton of sense. Uh especially if you get ties. That’s always the key when you bet these top finishing position markets. Always bet them with ties. Uh CIA, you and I normally will bet the without market and none of us, you know, we hadn’t really talked about that, but I knew something had to be up, so that’s where your long shots come in here. Yeah, speaking of Harris English. And by the way, I got to give a shout out to the chat. uh you know, join us. We we do, you know, five shows a week. We’re actually going to be doing more this week because we’ve got recap shows after each round for the PGA Championship with a ton of great guests. We’re also going to be on CBS Sports Network the rest of the week at 12 and or 1:00. But uh Jen M, she says, “Sander plus Padres’s minus one and a half tonight is is uh plus 4500.” Jen is making me so proud in the chat with parlays. Thank you, Jen. David Bark talking about uh the sports book holds and that that is something we talk about Dave sometimes especially with Mike Mccclure when we’re talking about win equity and what the numbers should be. So if you’re new to this show Dave just know that especially when we’re on with Mike we talk about that sometimes. David T giving you a shout out EC says great job on the show you’re killing it as as usual and he’s not even your favorite fan because I know Japan is. He says he loves hair English this week and that’s his only play this weekend. Jeffrey Wilson Joseph there’s so many people in here so thank you for Jeff Stenberg. Thanks for being in here. Here’s English. It’s music to my ears, Matt, because as you see here, I’ve got him. I I guess he can finish third and I cashed the 110. Just the third has to be behind Scotty and Rory. So, I I’m not really playing without marketing unless except for these long shots. But again, I listen, I agree with everything Matt said. I I don’t like, you know, I almost said it like 50% like I don’t think this is necessarily the best course for Harris English, but I agree with what Matt said. I mean I you know he’s a little bit longer off the tea and if you need a guy especially if the winds maybe pick up and this course maybe firms up a little bit gets a little bit harder over the weekend Harris English is your guy like like like it’s just it’s just one of those things where Harris English is just going to on a tough course linger inside the top 10 and then all of a sudden on Sunday he he might be there in the top five. So 110 to1 on this guy uh with in the without Scotty and Rory Marett. Love it. JJ Spawn’s another guy that I think can kind of sneak up on people. He’s not super long, but he’s not super short. We know the long iron play with JJ Spawn is really good. We know he’s battled recently and lost in a playoff to one Rory Mroy in the middle of his incredible run. 90 to1 in the without Scotty and Mory Market. These are guys that especially if the Bomber narrative is only half true and that other guys with a good long iron play and that kind of generally keep it in the fairway like a JJ Spawn can shine. 90 to1 this this guy can be there. So, we haven’t talked about Rory here. I mean, he’s won four times at Quail Hollow. So, we have to get some kind of a parlay in. I don’t trust Scotty as much because there’s no course history to report here, but we’re going to take a shot with Rory. It’s 75 to1. How can you do this? So, Rory to win. Bryson to finish top 10. CNI like him. Scotty to finish top 10. How about Victor Hoblin? Now, I know he’s not in the greatest format, but Victor Hobin the last two PGA championships, third and second. I’m just saying. Uh, and then if you really want to go out on a limb here at plus 9140, we can go Rory to win Xander top 10, which we a few of us like Matt and I like Xander and Patrick Reid top 10. And Patrick Reed, you know, we talked about him earlier. Matt Matt mentioned him. I mentioned him. Got good course history, good form on Liv. This is your way in my opinion to bet Rory Mroy to win. And I think he has a great chance to win. We’ll talk about that. But I just think playing him at five to one isn’t the best value. Sea, any thoughts on that? Well, I like your second parlay, the one that’s longer more than the first for whatever that’s worth. And I just wonder what this would pay and you know, anybody can find out like if you had Rory to win, Xander to top 10, and maybe Patrick, like I like Patrick Reed a lot, but maybe Patrick Reed top 20, it would still be an insane number. It’d be in like the 70s. Yeah. And I was just trying to go for a 90 to1 cuz hey, look at it this way. You put 10 bucks, you win almost a thousand. You put 25 bucks, you win almost two grand. That’s it’s how we got to do it here. This is how this is how I roll. Uh so you can you can make these parlays. Uh Matt, are you in are you a fan of these any of these parlays or you think I’m crazy? Uh I think they’re all pretty big reach. Just give me give me whatever you’re betting and I’ll kick you in the nuts. Probably feel better. Matt Matt, can I tell you these are better than last year because last year and somebody reminded me of this. I think it was either it was on yesterday’s DFS show, which everybody should catch. It’s in your feed. It was Sites501, who I don’t think is in the chat, but he he joins this show quite a bit, and he said, “I can’t wait for EC’s PGA Championship Michael Block parlay.” And I remember that something with Michael Block, I think, in the top 20 in some crazy parlay last year. I was trying to not reference that C. I had thought about Michael Block and then I saw his odds on DK at minus 575 to miss the cut and I just couldn’t do it. Matt, do we have any chance with Michael Block to make the cut? Is that kind of a a long shot here? Are you giving me that or no? M my you said he was minus 575 to miss the cut. Yeah, that’s uh I think that’s called short-term investing is what that is. Matt, can I ask you I know we got to get out of here. you know, we’ve taken already uh so much of of your time, but were you able to experience in any way that Michael Block that we were all experiencing in what 2023? I think I was covering the group in front of him that week. Uh when he made the hole in one, I remember the roar. Um but it was so wet that week that the the main thing I took away was in Rochester, right? Yeah. The it was just a mud pit. But uh what a story. Not going to be another blocky fever. Uh what the guys are saying, don’t bet Michael Block this week. Uh let’s look at one and done. Uh Matt, you’re not uh in this probably a good thing cuz Sea, look at CIA. He’s he’s absolutely crushing us. It’s I know he’s in ninth place out of what a thousand something like that for everybody else. And look who’s Well, you hit two outrights and that’s what happens. At least two one and done outrights. Rory quite a bit here. Yeah. And so I’m in 637th. So, desperate times call for desperate measures. And I’m thinking I’m going to be smart here. I’m going to take Rory Mory. I know C is taking Bryson. So, oh, Jason and Patrick, really? You had to steal my thunder. I’m thinking I’m going to gain on you guys and then you do this to me. Come on. See you, Bryson. That just makes too much sense, right? Yeah. I mean, it’s I I can only use Bryson so many times. Obviously, this is a great time to use him and and frankly, I’ve already used Rory, so I I can’t use him again. So, it’s it especially when I’m playing from in front, like strategy-wise, if you’re playing from in front, you you do probably want to go with a more chalky guy. Take more risks when you’re when you’re trailing. I think Rick posted something on on X earlier that uh Bryson was like 44% owned uh as far as as a oneandone. So, that I mean, Rory’s going to be up there too if you haven’t used him already. I’m going to take my shot here. Uh producer Matt, great job with the graphics there. All right, it’s time for the recap screen, which means it is time for story time. So’s not here this week, but Matt Ever is going to tell us. You played in the PGA Championship four times. Give us a story. Oh man, you guys threw this on me late. I didn’t know this is a story time. My grandfather went to college with Mr. Rogers, by the way. What? He did? Yeah. Rollins College. Uh, all right. Story time. Uh, PGA. Well, I only played in three or or you said four of them. Four of them. Four of them. Four of them. Yeah. 2012, 13, 14, and 15. So, the year Duffner won at Oak Hill, I I was playing a lot of my practice rounds with him at the time. Um, and he had the the fullon yips, like the full on yips. And, uh, we’re actually talking about this today, but, um, he had a putt on 18 that, you know, I’m giving it to him any other time, but, he yipped it and he ended up losing like it was a little over 500 bucks to me that week. and then he ended up winning the tournament. Um, but that’s that’s my coolest PGA story. I don’t think I ever played worth a crap in any of them. Uh, I don’t know. Just pry in over my head a little bit. Let me ask you this though. When you won the API twice, you get an exemption to play in in all the majors, right? Like, how exciting is that? That feeling of all right, cool. I just won a lot of money. I won I won a PJ tournament, but now I get to play in these big events. Uh, how cool is that? Yeah. Oh, the coolest. Uh, the first year I won. Well, you there’s other ways to get in the majors. Like I think I got in a couple uh a couple of them because I got in the top 50 in the world golf ranking at one point with um so there’s plenty of ways to get in, but to your point when the first thing you the first time I won, the first thought that came over me obviously was I’m going to I get to go to Augusta, right? Awesome. Hold on. The second year, the second time that I won, the first thought was, I get to go to Maui next year. Like, Maui is sick. I mean, you get to start the year off out there. New Year’s in Maui, no cut carts in the practice round. If you’re playing worth a crap, you’re going to beat half the guys because they haven’t been doing much in December. Um, it’s just a it’s just a killer week. Uh, but yeah, life-changing for sure. And dude, I’m super grateful to to have two wins on the tour. It’s it’s uh beyond my wildest dreams. And And what was it like to talk to Mr. Palmer both times after winning? Uh well, it was great. I knew Mr. Palmer a little bit before that because Sam’s his grandson Sam and I were buddies. So I’d go over there and play a little bit. Um they gave me a sponsor invite before years before I I had won and then I played a few times leading up to it. But it was super cool. You know the the first year I won uh I was coming down the stretch against much sexier names than mine for the you know the sponsors. And I ended up winning and I could tell how he he knew he knew me. He knew who I was and he knew I was a local a local kid as well. and I could tell he knew how much it meant meant to me and that was like super that was super cool for me. That is very cool. Last question that I have for you just cuz you know it’s story time where you have the recap screen up if you’re watching on YouTube. What is your favorite PGA Tour course that you have played or one that you always enjoyed playing the most? Oh man, everyone’s going to probably say Riviera, right? Um you guys ever been out there? I have not. I live in Scottsdale so I live near TPC Scottsdale. I haven’t been to Riviera, but it’s unbelievable just for the piece the piece of property they have is killer. Uh I don’t think there’s a water hazard on the golf course. Small greens, good golf goes a mile there. Bad golf gets penalized. It’s uh it’s got a ton of charm. I’m a big fan of small greens. Like if I was building a golf course, first things first, small greens. Hey, listen. I mean, the fat for me, the bigger the green, the better because you know, when you’re when you’re an 18 handicapped, you need all the help you can get and you still don’t find that many greens. Uh, guys, this has been a great show, but hey, we have a big week coming up here. See you, you’re going to be on a ton of shows, so check this out. CBS Sports Network, noon Eastern tomorrow, 1 Eastern, Thursday and Friday. We have post uh round recaps live on the Sports Line YouTube channel. Sea, you and I will be on on Thursday. And then of course watch the uh third and final round Saturday and Sunday 1 Eastern CBS and Paramount Plus. See you anything to to promote here? Yeah, one other thing is tomorrow morning our live chat on Wednesday morning at at 10:30. It’s me and Mike Mccclure. So any question you have, whether it’s DFS related or betting related or just whatever tournament related, we’re going to be in there from probably 10:30 to around 11:30 answering your questions specifically. So get it. It might be an ownership question in DFS. So it might be who you playing, who’s your core, like those types of things. Uh Mike is so sharp on that stuff. So it’s going to be me and Mike tomorrow on the Sports Line YouTube channel. That’s this channel you’re watching right now uh tomorrow at 10:30. That is how you make money is to watch Ca and M squared talk shop. That’s how you make money. I’m just just throwing it out there. My parlays uh debatable. Uh Matt, it has been an absolute pleasure to have you on. Great great to uh to hang out. And any advice? Any final thoughts from you? No, I just wanted to say thanks for having me on, guys. And I just figured out that there’s actually a chat on here like two seconds ago. Uh everyone that was talking to me. Hello. I appreciate the kind words. I would love to be back on. You guys were great. By the way, well, thank you. It was great to have you. Thanks to producer Matt behind the scenes as well. For Matt Ever and Cena, I am Eric Cohen. And as I always like to say, let’s hit it big. Good luck.