2024 Genesis Scottish Open Picks, Predictions & Props | How to Bet the Scottish Open

⛳️ The excitement of the PGA Tour’s international swing continues this week as the Genesis Scottish Open takes place at the stunning Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. Get ready for four days of world-class golf action!

⌚️ Start Time: Thursday, July 11th, 2024 (beginning at 2:30am ET)
📍 Location: The Renaissance Club, North Berwick, Scotland
📺 TV Coverage (US): Golf Channel, Peacock
📊 Favorites and Odds to Win:
Rory McIlroy +750
Xander Schauffele +850
Ludvig Aberg +1400
Collin Morikawa +1600
Viktor Hovland +2200

📱 Engage with the Tournament on Social Media
Official Twitter: @ScottishOpen
Official Hashtags: #GenesisScottishOpen #RolexSeries

00:00 INTRODUCTION
03:55 COURSE PREVIEW
10:54 STROKES GAINED CHART
17:20 PLAYERS THAT CAN TRIP YOU UP
21:00 OUTRIGHT WINNER
26:15 ANDY’S CLIENT SPECIALS
27:35 DRAFTKINGS DARLINGS
32:25 LEADERBOARD PLAY
36:11 RANDOM THOUGHTS

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Xander shafley Rory Mary and more big names are getting ready for the Open Championship by playing this week’s The Genesis Scottish open welcome to tea time I’m 0 from wager talk.com being joined as always by my fellow golf betting expert Nick Borman uh Nick I think this is the best uh precursor to a major tournament that that’s out there like like any you know any any major the week before all eyes are on it this is is like a really fun like tournament right right before it um I guess the biggest question is is this really a true tuneup test for the for the Open Championship I say no what do you think about this tournament in in terms of getting guys ready for the Open Championship what do you think maybe in the sense of jet lag you know for the Americans going across the at you right it gives them a little extra time a week to get their body in the in the right uh I guess time frame or whatever from a pure playability on how it’s going to compare to next week honestly it’s hard to say because everything we you and I know this Andy everything in Links Golf is dependent on the weather so it depends on really what plays out like you look at the forecast for this week we’ll get into it later but it’s typical Scotland weather just it’s not really windy so it’ll be interesting to see if that next week plays a lot differently because it is super windy it’s going to be colder and wet but it won’t be windy so that’s probably the big unknown and the and the one thing that’s kind of like I I don’t know if it’ll truly play the same way but I do think it helps getting people over there and just kind of getting used to uh the time change because it does take you know for that much of a of a flight you know five six hours depending on where you’re coming from more on the west ghost it does take a little getting used to the jet lag is probably the the best case for what it what it takes to to help guys for next week so let’s talk about Scottish openopen and the course that they’re going to play this week the Renaissance club uh we’ll start with the course and then we’ll get into the weather which of course is the big one so this is it’s kind of an interesting course a lot this thing was carved literally out of a pine tree Forest so it’s not your typical link style Golf Course um there are some deep pothole bunkers the fairways are going to have some mounds and some bumps as are the greens but it’s pretty wide open there are some areas of deep rough but it’s a par 70 call it 72 7300 yards it’s got three par fivs and those par fives are extremely getable I would say this week mandatory you’re going to have to shoot minus 10 on those par fivs if you want to win um the course um I don’t know there’s there’s some really cool interesting things that look cool there’s some really nice holes along the coast but again let’s talk about the weather here it just doesn’t look like it’s going to be that punishing or that brutal you go back to last year’s tournament round four featured wins up to 40 miles an hour and that’s typically the big the big defense on on these link style courses and if you don’t have that wind Nick it’s a birdie Fest and I think that’s what we’re going to see the wind just doesn’t look like it’s going to be there and even the rain there’s what 50 60% chance sometimes so it’s probably like a little bit of rain or Mist here or there the temperature is okay I just don’t think it’s going to be that difficult uh pretty much everybody can hit Greens in regulation I think going into round four last year I think 43 guys had hit over 70% of greens so there’s just not a lot of Defense to this course if the weather isn’t kicking up so I think you’re going to see scores around the minus 20 maybe even a little bit lower here uh on this one the par 70 you know kind of makes it a little bit difficult but you know if you’re looking for a really you know brutal link style European tournament this just isn’t going to be it it’s a beautiful course it’s very picturesque I love watching it I think there’s some really really nice holes and there’s some really cool historical landmarks like there’s one hole where they had to stop building the course because they discovered This Barn that was like underground um they’ve left some of the original ston walls that mapped off some of the properties from hundreds of years ago so there’s really cool things about the course golf wise though not that difficult what’s your take on the Renaissance Club yeah I mean the course is designed to be you know wind whipped it’s right on the coast right so they they don’t make the greens fast that’s one thing about the Open Championship chip compared to the other Majors is the greens will never roll you know like they will at Augusta they’re going to be 11 maybe 11 and a half on the stim which compared to Augusta 13 or more uh just tells you that the wind is what they have to kind of prepare for because it can turn on a dime I mean that’s the thing about the weather forecast over here is that it can change pretty quickly right now as you said for the four Tour Tournament days it does not look terrible today I wish they were playing I wish we were getting around out of today’s forecast today is like last year’s Sunday it’s 25 30 m hour winds 40 m hour gust I honestly don’t think there’ll be many players getting in too much practice uh today so it’s kind of a wasted day but yeah you’re right that the win is kind of light by Scottish standards 10 to 15 miles an hour basically all four days there is a chance of rain every single day light rain Misty whatever kind of just annoying rain but yeah only highs in the upper 50s so that’ll be you know that’ll affect some players and how they uh what they’ve been used to just not that they can’t figure it out and get around the course but just it’s different than the last you know three four five months of golf for a lot of these players players uh but yeah without the weather there’s not a lot of challenge here we’ve seen the winner shoot 22 under in this event I think last year was probably on Pace to get close to that and then Sunday happened and Rory ended up winning at 15 under it just completely stalled scores and all of a sudden ballooned everybody um so without that I think you’re right Andy I think we’ll get up to the 20 I don’t think there’s a lot to talk about here on the course layout and design there’s not a lot of you know things that will play a huge Factor but it is lyns golf right it is meant to be around the greens played in the similar style that’s one change to expect I’ll get into more of that a little bit later so that’s you know it’s okay to putt off the green it’s okay to to get creative and and and bump and run shots more so here than you’re going to see over in the states so that will come into play um and one thing I’ll add just about the course is that we’ve now had five years of the tournament being played here uh the last few years a little different sanctioned by the PJ tour as well so deeper Fields but last year was the first year that they actually had shotlink uh introduced during this tournament and what it told us in just one year which yes small sample size so maybe don’t put all your eggs in this basket but it’s not surprising actually so it’s that this course is clearly a second third and fourth shot type of a golf course meaning T balls rarely cost you or benefit you or whatever but it’s all about approach and it’s all about the around the green finesse and like I said often that comes with the putter a couple other notable data points from last year these are interesting and not really sure what to make of them but the course saw the highest proximity to the whole last season of Any of of any tour stop so that just means approach shots were furthest from the flag here than any other course they the guys played all year round and then it also LED all courses last year with the shortest average distance of putts made that just means guys hit the green and lag putt all day right that’s kind of how this course played out last year I don’t know if that’s going to play out the same this year I do think it’s important to pay attention to the approach and really around the green numbers this week those are going to be the ones that matter more than the off the te and and and like you know austa mattered off the tea this one doesn’t really matter as much so those are my kind of takeaways as far as what I’m looking for uh this week but I don’t see a lot of trouble that’s going to keep the scores high this week let’s take a look at a couple of these holes you can kind of get a visual as to what the course offers uh these are three of my favorite holes on this course we’ll start with hole seven it’s a 500 61 yard par five I mean we should e we should easily see Eagles on this hole there’s just not much to it uh you drive it to the right side of the Fairway players is going to have green a light to hit the green easily in two I will say that shots that come up short or left that’s going to create that tricky up and down which Nick was just talking about and that’s going to lead to pars on scores which is bad on this hole like eagle or birdie is the only acceptable score on on this hole so you walk away with a par that’s just like walking away with a bogey on a short par three like you just can’t par this hole it’s got to be a birdie or an eagle every single day so hole seven is a good one uh hole 13 418 yard par 4 I love this hole it’s right along the sea deep deep rough to the right of the Fairway Cliffs to the left it’s just one of the most beautiful holes that you’re going to see this season Fairway gets very narrow the farther the drive goes so players they got a really risk reward Situation off the the te and if the wind is kicking up the approach shot is one of the most difficult approach shots on tour I don’t think we’re going to see I don’t think we’re going to see it uh this year but one of the videos online that talks about this hole says if the wind is kicking up it’s like trying to land a a gigantic plane on an aircraft carrier in rough Seas it’s just the wind can blow the wall everywhere so approach shots that go left are a huge no no there’s rough there’s Coast Cliffs gobbles up the shot so could be a big number and then 18 483 yard par 4 really solid finishing hole I love the different courses and the different finishing holes stone wall is in the middle of the Fairway along with Fairway bunker so it just looks really nice um you do have to be accurate off the te on this hole and the green is not that difficult uh up and downs are a little tough as both the left and the right sides of the greens have Troublesome short shots um but uh yeah it’s a it’s a it’s a fun course and once again it’s really going to be dependent on uh the par here so uh if we guys could please hit the like button really helps us out helps the algorithm out tells wager talk we’re doing a good job for everyone and leave us some comments in the comment section again tell us who you like this week uh it’s had some funny ones Nick last week I believe I said um I I was like my bold take is that someone’s gonna get to minus 10 in one of the rounds and then first round minus 10 first round round minus 12 so let us know what you think of this Scottish open um a lot of good plays on the board here so uh just leave us a comment and make sure you hit that like button and if you’re not subscribed to the YouTube channel go ahead and do that hit the Bell get notified for all the videos we got some great soccer breakdowns to get you ready uh for these final games in the soccer tournaments of course MLB and if you’re looking forward to the NFL season like most of us are we will have NFL future videos coming up very soon Nick let’s take a look at the total Strokes gained chart going to be looking a little bit different this week uh and as you noted uh last week’s winner David Davis Thompson was actually on this chart we talked about him a little bit and I used Davis Thompson in my oneandone league how about that yeah out of nowhere picking the winner I don’t want it done no no no absolutely not so some interesting names here walk us through this Chart top 10 Strokes gained last 12 last six last three months what do we take away from it this week yeah well let’s start in with the with the general idea here so you’re right Davis Thompson was number nine last week so he was on our chart it’s since the Masters Andy well actually let’s let’s look at the whole season so this season the wraparound season’s over right so it started in January at the century there’s been 30 tournaments in the first 15 tournaments of the year so that’s usually talking about like some of the smaller events kind of you know it’s January it’s February it’s March it’s a little bit hodge podge guys aren’t playing regularly first 15 events of the year only three winners uh were ranked in the top 10 so we we were off to a slow start but now in the last 15 tournaments 10 of the winners have been in the top 10 so the averages are starting to go back in our favor here and you can see up at the top I always like to point it out 63 now of the last 114 tournaments going back to the start of 2022 55% of the winners have been here Andy so as always we start our Deep dive in this graphic a lot of names to like here no surprises I don’t really think uh Max hom being still in this category is probably the biggest surprise and again he had a very good um it’s kind of like the the 9 to 12 month window months ago that that’s where he was playing very well so he will fall out of this sooner rather than later you can see that in the shorter term with the trends over the last six months and three months for him particularly has dropped but you can also see in the odds 65 to1 you go back nine months ago he he was not 65 to1 coming into this type of event he might have been 30 40 to one um knowing that you know link style maybe not is isn’t his favorite but still he’s maybe the real surprise that’s still kind of hanging out in this graphic otherwise top of the list is exactly who you’d expect to see Xander Rory Head and Shoulders above everybody Colin right there is kind of like the next guy but you know he did have that win in the fall but really he’s just he’s he seems to be a guy that just doesn’t get the job done on Sunday more often than not uh havins had his struggles recently uh Oar I think we we both love him and it’s going to be you know a longterm presence on the on the BGA tour Fleetwood he’s just that uh always the uh always the brides made never the bride at least on the PJ tour but because this is also a DP World Tour event perhaps and then uh matama really surging recently Cory Connors my notables are guys that I think are worth a look that are playing very well now they were just outside the top 10 as far as 12 months goes but you can see their numbers over the last three months obviously Davis Thompson no surprise winner last week but a lot of people were on him because you saw it coming he was playing very very well he had run it up just the week prior so first time over here might be asking a lot coming off the wi to play well but the numers suggest he’s in great form Christian bazun hoit we’ll talk about him later uh I think he’s kind of a sleeper this week and sjm’s really returned a good form here in these events as well so that this is the top 10 list Andy I I do like a lot of players in this list this week um and I’ll definitely have some money on a few of them yeah right before we went on we were talking about some of these uh props that are out and I I we could talk about the make the cuts we we were talking about those more and more books are offering these make the cut parlays like last year there was only one book but now there’s multiple books out there um I’ve started playing them officially for wager talk as you know more and more books have these available these are great um Corey Connors has made the cut in every single tournament this year like like and and you’re getting him at like a minus 240 to make the cut this week if you’re a parlay batter like I am I does it get much better than that a guy’s 100% yeah um I would even bring up a guy like Brian Harmon he’s like minus 225 and like last year was his best career year but this year it’s not like he’s been terrible he’s only got he’s only missed two cuts one of them was austa which is a course he absolutely despises he finished 12th here last year and he’s just top 25 top 25 top 25 top 25 like there’s some real value in this category um with these guys that just always make the cut um I’ll get to my are you are you making the the parlay yourself choosing your own players or you taking the ones that are like pre-loaded that they offer making my own um last last year like I said last year there was only one book that you were allowed to do it now I have at least three of them that let you do it and then you know like you and I love crossport parlays you can take one of these guys to make the cut and put it with your favorite Euro play you know Copa play or anything like like that’s a huge huge advantage that we have as betters when you can just take one guy to make the cut and try and find something else on the board uh the other week it’s a really it’s a really good source of of profits and building the bank roll and what I’m finding is there’s no value in taking Rory maroy like minus 1600 to make the cut but you get those guys like Cory Conor like you know like Brian Harmon uh you know um even you know SI theala he makes the cut damn near you know every week you know somebody’s like you know kind of you know under the radar guys um tell us about another guy you’re gonna tell us about another guy that hasn’t missed the cut this year there but I don’t want to spoil that right that’ll come up later I just feel like it’s 18 for 18 yes we will get to him but let’s let’s move to play let’s move to players that can trip you up this was a difficult category for me this week because I look at the top and I can’t really tell you why Roy maroy would trip you up let’s see price is the betting favorite so obviously if he doesn’t f is top two you know it’s a little bit of let down but he won this thing last year I’m sure he wants to play good um based on the last time we saw him what happened um I what am I gonna tell you shafley is not going to play good here like I doubt it the weather’s good it’s a birdie Fest you know you know Mory Kawa yeah he didn’t play here last year and he doesn’t have great history but it’s pretty hard to argue that this guy isn’t going to be up in the top 10 so I’m going to go with some guys that um I think people are going to try and put in their DraftKings lineups and some other under the radar that I think can be a little bit Troublesome and one of them is Aaron Ry and now this guy has been an absolute Cash Cow but he’s been a cash cow because he’s been undervalued and now I feel like we’ve gone a little bit too far and now in a field with lots of bigname guys he’s he’s priced as a top 15 guy and I’m just not going to be betting on him this week as he’s missed the cut here the last two years and I went back and looked he was in good form coming into the Scottish open um last year only shot minus one he barely missed the cut 2022 he barely missed the cut again and again going into that week he was in really good form so feels like this year is very similar to the last couple years where he’s in good form and just doesn’t put it together for the Scottish open I don’t know why he struggled at this course whatever reason got there are just players that just doesn’t fit for him at a certain course but it’s it’s enough to make me stay away from him this week I’ve cashed the last couple weeks on Aaron Ry but this week I just don’t trust his course history here another guy who just struggles here Sun JM he’s been playing really well lately and we noticed last week that the tournaments that he struggled at this year were the majors uh when he gets to an easy course he thrives you know uh 12th third eighth and Ninth Place finishes at much easier courses than the majors he’s missed the cut at at all the majors this year but he’s played here the last two years and he missed the cut easily in both years I don’t know if he’s focused on on next week but this guy’s priced as a top 13 guy and I’m just not going to get near him if you if you’re if you’re missing the cut by margin here two years in a row um and it wasn’t like he had a bad score because of the final round bad weather he didn’t make the cut in the dies weather so um uh very concerning for sunj m a guy that’s had some really good finishes but this week I’ll be staying away and then I just think Robert McIntyre is going to be one of those picks Nick that every body is like I know I’ll get sneaky and I’ll pick Robert McIntyre everyone’s on Robert McIntyre uh I know he’s gonna be popular he finished second here last year brutal a brutal second place finish uh but this guy is the definition of feast or famine uh this season Nick he has five top 20 finishes and then 10 finishes of 60th or missed cut he has two tournaments with finishes between 52nd and 16th so this guy is like either way outperforming his price or just complete other disappointment yeah um last year he finished second but we got to go back and remember that round four was insane wind he shot a 64 in those conditions but going into round four he was five shots behind the eventual winner Roy maroy and when the weather was being was calm um yeah he just wasn’t at the top of the leaderboard so the weather is going to be calm I just don’t know if we see another top three finish he’s priced as a top 15 guy and outside of last year he had missed the cut in two out of four years at this tournament he’s very inconsistent it’s a coin flip whether he’s going to be top 15 or outside the top 50 it it just is that’s what his stats tell us so I’m not willing to invest in him I think he’s going to be a very popular pick and I would not be surprised if he disappoints a lot of people so Aaron Ry sunj M and Robert McIntyre are three players that I am going to try and avoid this week let’s take a look at an outright winner this one surprised me I did not see this one coming I always like I’m sure you do the same thing I like to try and pick when I think your outright winner is going to be uh and everything before we before we get to your outright winner Nick tell everyone what you have up at wager talk.com for sure uh right now I do have a 5% crossport parlay as you already mentioned one of our favorites to do it includes this tournament um a top leaderboard finish plus a combination with one of the Euro semi-final matches so uh you actually got to get this play and it’s goes with this the second match on Wednesday so this will uh this will start midday Wednesday but that’s available right now on my page if you buy that pack you will also get all golf plays included for this weekend which will be um you know for the for the four days so that’ll be matchups uh outright leader boards whatever else I add right now it’s just the one play but I will be adding more as the week goes on and then uh MLS continues to just drive out profits uh just crossed the 60 unit threshold for the season Andy um I don’t know just been seeing it very very very well it’s been a great great run hopefully we can continue it we’re about to we got a couple more weeks I think it’s three more weeks two more weeks two and a half whatever it is and then they’re going to take a month break for that leagues Cup Tournament which was last year as well so it’ll be interesting to see how uh that that affects team when they come back but I’m very excited for the rest of the season that’s available now you can grab you know a 30-day pass for 99 bucks or the rest of the season uh year pass whatever you’re looking for but all available right now on my page at wager talk all right let’s talk your boy Victor havin outright you’re getting pretty good price what do you like about Victor this week full transparency here Victor hin has been and at first glance was a guy I’m like you know what no because there’s been no reason to back him pretty much all year he had a a little bit of a stretch where you were like all right maybe something’s turning around for him and I I did back him once or twice during that stretch but here’s the thing about Victor that we know has been holding him back right it’s a short game he ranks and you ready for this he ranks 174th out of 175 eligible players on the PGA tour and strokes gained around the green that just sums it up that is the one thing this guy just cannot do so why the heck would you want to trust you know what a backa guy that just has no short game he can’t get up and out from anywhere well here’s my theory link style golf is a little different right if he can keep that wedge in the bag a little bit more and rely on his putter a little just you know one time two times more per round so eight times maybe over the course of four days if that translates into five six shots saved that maybe he otherwise wouldn’t have now we’re talking a big difference I mean five six shots over the course of four days is a lot when you’re getting to this level and if you’re going from a guy that might be three or four under now up to you know 10 11 under it’s it’s a big change so I think that is a huge factor for me this week is I think we can mask if you can take away the the guy’s biggest weakness I think that’s a big big time benefit right I think that could happen this way I’m not saying it will we don’t know we don’t know but I’m I’m saying the potential to mask his biggest weakness is here this week his ball striking remains Elite uh which it never has changed just you don’t notice it because of how bad his short game has been but he’s gaining Strokes off the T and appr approach if you if you combine the if you look at ball striking which is off the T and approach combined he gain Strokes in that category that combined category in all but one event this year if he can even muster up a respectable week around the greens by just you know we kind of talk about was Scotty just don’t lose Strokes putting I think the same is true Victor just don’t lose Strokes around the green and you’re gonna be in contention because the rest of his game is good enough and to prove that point havin this is a great one havlin gained Strokes around the greens one time this year that event he finished solo third at the PGA Championship so if that doesn’t prove the point if this guy can just simply avoid you know just sucking around the greens he should be there in contention uh and the proof is in the pudding as far as his links pedigree I call this is the link swing right he’s finished no worse than Tai for 13th in in three starts at the Open Championship that’s pretty dang impressive plus he finished TI for 25th here last year so there might there might be something to the idea that you know we can mask it that his wedges we can take him out of his hand a few more times and that might just help him stay in conten so will it be enough for him to win I don’t know I just liked his price uh based on the fact that if we can really hide that that that weak part of his game I think it does give him a chance but I’m definitely going to back him up with the top five you can find him anywhere between plus 450 and 500 because I think it’s he’s GNA be good enough to be right there kind of like the PGA Championship he finish all third he might be right that mix again maybe not quite enough to win but I’m gonna put a little bit money on him to win and really back it up with the top five but I do think and hope we’re GNA Mas his weakness this week and I could be laughing we could I could be texting you Friday night going well that was dumb but I like I like no we’re we’re actually GNA talk about this at the end of the show I’m going to go through some guys and we’re GNA try and point out what’s their one weakness because most of these guys they’ve got at least one uh they’ve got at least one you know kind of weakness so we’ll go through that um I’ve got a golf pack up that is up right now but we also have a 5% uh crossport parlay of the week uh 23 and N Run on these uh what we’ve been doing is just picking One play a week it’s our best bet and yeah 23 and N Run on those so we’ve just been packing the bank rolls with these so encourage everyone to go grab that over at wagertalk.com uh Golf 2 and 0 last week so uh really finding our groove never had a losing season in golf and we’ve got the pack up for the Scottish open and that will include all plays as well also if you want to go over to wager talk and you’re looking for 30 days worth of plays which highly recommend for this month uh we’ve got a a promo for 30% off there’s no promo code needed uh gets you 30 days for just about $7 a day that’s going to include all crossport parlays all golf plays all UFC MMA plays everything for 30 days I know it sounds like the dog days of July but uh we are just huming along and this is one of our favorite uh times of year coming off a great Formula One race as well so you’re looking to uh pack your bankroll and build up those profits uh take advantage of that no promo code needed just go to Andy Lang’s wager talk Channel WT uzzal and lock in all those plays $7 a day all right let’s talk about Draft Kings Darlings and I have to laugh at myself because Nick what how did I you remember what the precursor was to my draft gings Darlings I was like yeah I don’t do normally that good at this these lower level events it’s normally the bigger events that I that I do great at so proceed with caution and my single best DraftKings lineup I have ever had uh if we could look at it I do have to brag about it there it is Nick first number one out of 150 players yeah it was a 5050 uh but I mean that lineup was just killing Aaron Ry crushed it and of course Davis Thompson when you get somebody at 9600 that ends up the winner uh you’re great Andrew Novak was a was a huge surprise uh Joel Damon makes the cut and Ben Silverman Ben Silverman baby uh comes through in the clutch and then uh Mark hubard we’re GNA just lead into this week’s DraftKings Darlings here um Mark hubard is the absolute Undisputed DraftKings darling of 2024 this guy has played in 18 tournaments and he’s made 18 Cuts 100% hit rate Mark hubard and we’re getting him at 6500 he’s one of the lowest priced guys in the field a guy that just gets you weekend points at every single event I don’t care what his stats are because he just shows up on the weekend makes a cut he’s never played here I don’t care you keep giving me Mark hubard at 6,500 that’s just a automatic play so Mark hubard is how we’re going to start our DraftKings lineups I am G to go tomak kibbon uh at 7,000 um if you if you don’t follow the European tour you probably don’t know a whole lot about him I know the hero tour is not what it used to be however ever uh he’s been great this year uh six top 10 finishes in his last nine tournaments that is nothing uh to sneeze at out of that he’s made the cut uh well he made the cut at the US Open and finished 41st so that requires a massive level of skill and he finished 35th here last year his first time playing um this this tournament in this course so he finished 35th so I think this price is a little bit low on a guy who I mean listen he’s been playing well in the EUR tour what a great chance for him to show off on kind of a little bit of a bigger stage so I think 7,000 is a little bit too low I’ll put him in and then Davis Thompson at 7900 Nick one of our favorite things to do is you know we like fading a random winner it’s been a great strategy over the years I just don’t think Davis Thompson is a random winner this has been a pretty consistent run for him he’s finished second 17th he’s got a miscut but 27th ninth second and first in his last seven tournaments that’s just in the last nine weeks so I looked at the data all for the last nine weeks this guy is the fifth best total Strokes gained in this field uh he has been fantastic and I just don’t think there’s going to be a let down from maybe a little bit of course you’re going to let down from a win but uh 7900 I love the way he’s playing uh this could turn into a putting contest just like last week and he showed he can flourish with that so Davis Thompson 7900 is going to be the way I fill out my lineup if you would like to see the rest of my lightup free golf article is up at wagertalk.com if you want to go to my profile page dig download the Scottish open preview is in there it’s got the writeups for players that can trip you up it’s got the full DraftKings lineup and um hopefully we can we can score another big win but that was a lot of fun following that uh that DraftKings lineup last and Andy I just want to add to uh Davis Thompson I usually you mentioned what you usually like to do with the winners I usually like to look at the price adjustments one week after a winner because usually golf I argue golf is the biggest overreaction Market in sports betting you know one week will’ll change a guy number dramatically the following week uh I think Davis Thompson is kind of one here that just surprisingly it hasn’t really overreacted so to see him still at 7900 and the DraftKings number and I think he’s at the uh he was in the 50s to 60s to win is still I I thought we would see him drop in the 30 40 type of range speaking of which the other PGA Tour event going on this week in amateur Luke Clan yes betting favor at like 14 to1 or less is insane to me AB absolutely insane and that’s what I I didn’t expect that number but I expected that kind of reaction here with Davis Thompson coming in this week but I don’t see it so I think it’s a great I think it’s a great Darlings but I the other field is remarkably just head scratched I know it was a water down field last week Davis Thompson was 9600 last week now he’s he’s 7,900 I know there’s I know I know there’s more bigger names added but you’re right this the market didn’t seem to do the knee-jerk reaction uh here on this one so uh let’s take a look at a top 20 finishing position again a name I did not expect to hear but this guy he’s cashed quite a few bets he’s been really good under the radar guy who do you like for top 20 here at a juicy plus 240 my first note on this play piggyback so well off of what you just said about Davis Topson you said he is fifth in total Strokes gained over the last nine weeks right in this field this week well it may surprise you to hear that Christian bazen Hoy ranked six in total Strokes game in this field over the last six months so that’s a pretty good sample size at this point he’s six quiet talk about quiet right and you look at the players that he ranks ahead of in that time frame Tommy Fleetwood Victor hin Matt Fitzpatrick Cory Connor Aaron Ry all of them are priced at lower odds than him this week so I like this segment because I like to find the guy that’s playing well but not getting the respect he probably should from the books when every one of those other players I said I don’t you know I’m not saying they’re playing poorly in fact I’m betting on Victor hin for gosh sakes but the fact of the matter is he’s been steadily better than him better better than them over this period of time yet no love from the book so I’ll jump on it I’m gonna hope for the best in 18 starts in 2024 he’s missed just two cuts but he’s finished inside the top 25 11 times including four top 10 he was absolutely I mean horrible is not even the right word to use but horrible off the tea here last year in this event so he missed the cut but he did have a tie for 16th finish here two years ago his driver is his biggest weakness if you back it up I said the driver usually isn’t something that’s going to kill you around here it did kill him last year and it is his biggest weakness mainly due to a lack of Firepower he doesn’t hit it far compared to pretty much everybody at this point uh but I think that should be masked this week as well so I’m I’m looking at the driver I know again I just said it last year it affected him big time but I think it can be on a normal week and with how he’s playing right now I think it can be massive because he’s not really missing he’s just not hitting it far so I think we’re hiding at his biggest weakness and this course presents as mainly an approaching around the green test and his his numbers there are pretty solid he’s he ranks decent as far as Strokes gain approach he’s 42nd on the season but he excels with his short game and putter which will likely keep him in contention uh this week he’s gained Strokes around the greens in 11 straight starts man give that stat to Victor havin that guy doesn’t lose uh and he’s gained Strokes putting in 12 of his last 13 the only negative one being minus 05 at the PGA Championship where he missed the cut at even par so generally May saying as long as he’s gaining Strokes in those two with those two uh categories he’s going to be in the mix and 11 out of 18 top 25 finishes in 2024 speaks a lot to it if he just has a slight uptick with his approach play this week or you know he might has the potential to contend to actually win this thing so I think average approach play and strong putting and short game which we’ve seen from him all year long I think it’ll be enough to cat a top 20 but if he’s slightly better on approach I think he’s got a chance to actually uh win this thing come Sunday but I like bazun Hoy to Make Some Noise this week love it we mentioned Victor havin and just his kind of weakness here uh with with his short game so I want to play this game real quick but uh before we do that just make sure you go grab Nick’s 5% play it’s going to come with all of the Scottish open plays that is over at way maor talk.com also myself I’ve got a 5% crossport parlay that is up uh separate from that we got our Scottish open pack uh having a really good year two and 0 last week and we’ve already got one play locked and loaded that’s going to come with all Scotta showa plays but Nick let’s go through some of these guys because like Scotty sheffler’s a guy I can’t really poke a hole in like what’s the one thing used to be putting not anymore yep uh Rory ma Rory maroy do we have a one thing for marroy that he just is it fourth round putting yeah right it’s his own it’s his own self can’t get out of his own way sometimes puts too much pressure on S in the biggest tournaments yeah I I think you could say the same about Kum Mory Kawa just fourth round wo just he’s there and just just kind of doesn’t really get there could we say the same about Tommy Fleetwood who’s his record is so good his Strokes gained are so good like no Killer Instinct is that is that what fleetwood’s weakness is absolutely he uh yeah there’s as far as five tool players he’s pretty much solid all the way around it’s just you’re right he doesn’t whether it’s Saturday or Sunday it’s definitely on the weekend one of the two days will just be flat he’ll shoot even par while everybody else just shout four or five under and then the next day he’ll be back to four or five under but it’s too late so yeah it’s just one flat day at the worst time is all it takes for flew uh yeah you mentioned Victor havin his big one is just uh just that that that short game um you know Jordan spe his his strength is now his weakness isn’t it like his strength was a short game putting and now now it’s the thing that lets him down so Jordan spe has kind of got that one I here’s the interesting one shafley does shafley have have the one thing that you can say wow that’s a weakness of his no he’s one of the few five tool he’s solid all the way around I’m looking at his data right now I mean he’s got one two three four five so out of five categories time I don’t know how many events he’s played maybe 15 so five times 15 75 there’s five numbers that are negative out of 75 in any given tournament any given week yeah 50 straight cuts made I mean no they there’re no and now the PGA Championship it was the killer it was the Sunday back nine falter somewhere that was his weakness but he he still I’m sure will do that at times but finally getting the major finally get back in the winner circle hopefully that’s uh that’s some confidence builder for but I don’t see any weakness yeah so yeah Brian Harmon distance off the te kills him at master in some of these big big courses um I have a funny one the only reason I know this is because two weeks ago if you remember Tom Kim was a betting favorite and didn’t make the cut and I was there was something about him I I I didn’t like and he just kept missing these short putts in these short putts and I was like God this guy cannot putt from short so I went and looked it up listen to these stat stats from Tom Kim here’s his weakness it’s putting from short range he’s 144th putting from 3 feet or less 136 from 4 feet or less 108 from 4 to 8T 116th in putting from five feet orlet this guy is one of the worst Putters when you get in close on the entire tour he’s not even sniffing the top one 100 and even eight feet out 158 158 from from eight feet out if that guy cleans up his short putting wow that we could be looking at a really really impressive golfer I’d love to hear what your thoughts are on for this particular week because you’re right about that data obviously but the results on the these links courses have been phenomenal and I wonder slower green speeds maybe it’s helping them right he’s more comfortable on them but TI for six year last year third place the year prior to that so two top 10 finished co- runner up at the open last year we’re talking about three top six finishes uh at these events over the last two years is pretty impressive so I guess it’s it’s maybe just got the Comfort level in a little bit slower greens I would say that U so I put more emphasis on in rather than fair course you know you know like like course history this is one of those exceptions because this course I mean the greens are different from most PGA you know tour you know courses I cannot ignore third and sixth there’s something he really really likes about these greens and these Fairways his ball striking is fine his approaches are fine um he missed the cut at the rocket mortgage by one shot and he could have been in contention to win if he would just putted decent from you know six seven feet in uh I think he’s a great fantasy golfer I he’s going to be in my fantasy lineup if you haven’t used him in oneand duns I think he’s a fantastic oneandone golfer I would even say DraftKings I think you could look at him in DraftKings I I I agree wholeheartedly uh him and Fleetwood two top six finishes and the in the last years they just open every year yeah yeah I I looked at obviously but I hadn’t looked at Tom Kim yet so I’m glad we’re doing this right now because I am making my NS yeah those are the only only two guys in the field that have finished uh top six in the last two years Tom Kim and Tommy Fleet with the two Toms so um’s there’s a there’s a make the cup parlay for yeah’s uh yeah so great notes uh for the Scottish open so uh thanks for joining us don’t forget to hit the like button and leave us a comment next week get ready it’s the Open Championship looking forward to it we’re gonna have all the big name guys out here uh I love I don’t know I don’t it’s I have a LoveHate relationship with the times of the Open Championship because you’re like it’s over in the middle of our day like the round is over in the middle of our day yeah unfortunately it starts in the in the middle of night but it’s a great course tr’s going to be amazing last uh next week so don’t forget to to join us next week on tea time good luck in all your plays go grab Nick’s 5% play go grab my 5% play and we’ll see you every next week on tea time