THE 2024 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC | Ep 105 – SHE THINKS MY PROTRACTOR IS SEXY| Back 9 Bets
Byron Lindeque previews the course and runs through all of the odds while making his 2024 JOHN DEERE CLASSIC picks. @TheModelManiac provides his Fantasy Golf picks and best bets for the event at TPC DEERE RUN.
Episode “105” | SHE THINKS MY PROTRACTOR IS SEXY
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friends family fans we are back for the rocket mortgage classic according to my little scroller down there let me change that nonsense before we crack a cold one episode 104 it’s time to party at the John Deere classic baby we’ve got the Iowa shirt on the Iowa beer shirt looking frisky let me change this rocket mortgage nonsense over here real quick I did change the majority of it but this ain’t no rocket mortgage this is the John godamn Deer classic John dear boom back in business now she thinks my protractor sexy really turns her on you know the drill if you’re a country singer songwriter slash viewer enjoyer of that kind of music that’s where you come from when it comes to this nonsense hours late accounting I’ve still got the computer open here just in case there’s some issues it’s month end it’s quarter end this is why you need to hit the like button subscribe to r.com so I can just come to you at 6 o’cl central time every Tuesday don’t have another thing that I have to deal with every quarter every month end we don’t have to deal with that just hit the like hit the Subscribe get yourself a ro baller sub you got yourself 30% off in the link below use code summer that’ll help me will help you gonna do this thing gonna have a fun Show episode 105 the godamn John Deere classic I will be there all four days looking forward to marching around sweating my ass off in this humed ass Iowa temperatures but enjoying some fun golf at a golf course and tournament that is right down the road 3 hours but we’ll be there it’s going to be a fun time looking very much forward to that so another another show on Mayo media it’s the John Deere simple situation here we’re not really looking for too much from these guys let’s go through our BS let’s figure our stuff out I will be there on Saturday Michael I’m going to post on Twitter exactly what I’m looking like and you’re going to have to come find me buddy I’ll buy you a beer because that’s what we do over here on Back N Beers N Sniff time yes what’s up Mike Mike over here wanted me to shout out his zebra printed foot stol so shout out to Mike didn’t think you’d hear that today on the show and you know what since it’s been a long week and it’s the goddamn John Deere classic nice little bushl Peach from my man Ed beautiful these things hit like m Tyson baby softly and delightfully but very very accurately anyway let’s get back into it here we’ve got some outrights we’ve got some placements we absolutely got rocked last week three top 20 bets all missed a cut they were all like the very popular guys Narin Mitchell Jer all just missed a cut we had an a out tried if you’re returning maybe you’re riding that with us maybe you weren’t maybe you had Cam Davis to steal our soul but I have nightmares over broomstick putts in the middle of a playoff SL to for playoff to win the tournament because we had it with Benny an bricked it at least AES was a bender and he hit the lip but doesn’t help second place don’t work for us got the top five each way yep you do you know we need these outrights but we cannot control that we cannot control what AE did we placed the right bed the guy bowled out Cam Davis showed up out of nowhere won the goddamn tournament he led for zero holes Cam Davis he was not in the lead at one single point while he was on the golf course he won it sitting from a chair tough scene so we had also another mention about the broken back yes Friday I wake up my back’s busted up so old man syndrome going on for me but I did do a different workout on the bicycle and it messed up my back tough scenes for your boy so it seems like it’s better I’m on some muscle relaxes we doing a few Bush light peaches over here life’s going to be good for you guys gon to have a fun time let’s dive into it let’s party let’s get ourselves some freaking winners on the card you spinal spinal What on earth does that even mean what does that even mean would chip King they were chalk donkeys I know J but that’s what you do with chalk donkeys you bet them top 20 you don’t play them in DFS it is what it is sometimes that kind of stuff happens it’s all good all right so let’s figure ourself out here we’ve got some at the half hour Mark we’re going to give you guys a little contest going to keep on rocking and rolling as we roll through here going to be lots and lots of fun Okie doie so I appreciate all of you in the chat the mic oh it’s a m Yeah I broke my back what’s wrong with your back my back is broken your back’s broken Yeah I broke my back anyway Mike Tyson great interview absolutely whacked some guy I think then in the interview afterwards he says his back’s broken crazy stuff yeah it’s SP it’s spinal anyway let’s get into it yeah first up on the board upside ranking number two for us is JT poster he’s one of our first outrights not the longest of the outrights but he’s going to be our guy 35 to1 these are all placed with each ways because that’s what we have to do on this freaking godforsaken channel is the eway situation because we don’t have guys that make it across the line for us a let us down in a big way so we got to take the top fives with these dudes so I believe these are split by a quarter by 1/4th and we get four places for some of them 35 to1 for JT Poston he’s won this tournament before the course history Factor here isn’t that big of a deal you’re not going to find guys really thriving at this venue as much as you should at other venues like Quail Hollow and things andless your names like Zack Johnson or Steve Stricker these guys just tend to ball out at this venue there are some guys with some good course history that you can lean into JT poon’s one of them with a win so if he can get that working out for us we’re in good shape we like what he can do the irons have been dialing themselves in lately I believe coming back to coming back to the world daughter golf’s ranked him second in the model he’s got the fourth most Strokes gain total in 2024 we are liking what JT Poston is going to get up to we’re looking for some wedge Factory stuff here look at this top 20 in The Wedge Department solid from 150 to 200 the long irons take a bit of a beating there’s not that many of them at this venue we’re okay so that’s kind of what we’re leaning into with Poston love the wedge game with the the putter can absolutely get on Fuego we on we’ve even got the right putting stature so let’s do this who the hell knows what shows up when we unhide here oh boy my hands are clammy I can’t click the buttons like I need to oh boy let’s just leave that alone but JT solid putter let’s go we’re going to rock and roll with this dude he’s our guy par five scoring very very solid and that’s the reason we like this dude 35 to1 as well you know I’m a big fan of this dude we’re going to go with him in that department and then while we’re at JT post and stop and clicking his name for a winner let’s do a top 10 on JT Poston as well at plus 320 I believe is that correct JT Poston plus 320 for a top 10 yes sir just double check that he’s won himself 1,59 freaking dollars so far in the last 12 months aka the last 26 events his top 20 markets returned him $459 if you’re betting to win 100 every single time and his top 10 markets the most profit returning $1 total Dollar in that market that’s like some seriously good stuff for JT Posen in that situation so I’m a big fan of his top 10 rates he’s finishing inside the top 10 at a 35% clip remember when we on this on this part of the of the show you always want your top 10 rate to be double your top five rate you want your top 20 rate to be double your top 10 rate you want your top 40 rate to ideally be double your top 20 rate JT Poston doesn’t have any of that doubling up yet because his top 10 rate is more than double his top five rate and it supersedes if you double his top 10 rate it gets over his top 40 rate so the magic spot for him as these numbers show is the top 10 BET 35% of the time in his last 26 starts JT Poston has notched the top 10 so we love JT Poston for a winner at 35 and we’re going to bet JT for top 10 at plus 320 at bet 365 ties paid in full folks make sure you’re getting that there for yourselves especially for these top 10 bets especially for bets that aren’t negative odds can kind of drift away from those because they’re more likely to hit if you’re going negative odds we’ll see sjm is our number one ranked golfer in the model the guy game’s been trending really nicely it’s telling us we’ve got a nice little minus minus 120 bet there for a top 20 on SJ which is his best Market but he’s doing it 48% of the time so I had to ramp up the raw edge here again because the fields got even weaker since the rocket and now we we trying to manufacture edges yeah because these guys playing in the designated events the Signature Events aren’t going to have a T20 percentage that’s going to match the guys in this field that have been playing the non- Signature Events so trying to just boost some guys percentages for the week of field is what is going to happen here because if you’re looking at the 48 and wondering why is not showing a 7% Negative Edge that’s why we’ve ramped It Up by about 15% extra to just kind of give us something so I’m seeing a thing over here quickly beautiful you are welcome I think we’re in the we’re in the clear folks work is now behind us let’s shut this laptop off let’s have a nice cold sip of some Peach Bush light and watch old SJ just do his thing the game’s coming back we’re going to play him in DFS but I can’t handle I’m not a fan of the minus1 120 top 20 he’s been pretty solid lately we’ve got some other bets we like a lot more you know his game is just here and there I I don’t ever get SJ right so we’re going to leave him a little bit alone so that’s sjm playing DFS see what goes on BET JT posten to win at 35 to1 and for a top 10 at plus 320 ties PID full one of the biggest edges we have in that market so that that’s what we like from JT moving on down we got Keith Mitchell we’ll be going back to killer Keith for another top 20 bet he let us down last week pretty much had the same exact odds if you take a look at his Market year top 20 bets are his bread and butter when you take a look at his top 20 rate at 38% the odds are implying that it’s a 38% bet at plus 160 so that gives us any inherent 5 percentage overall because we ramped up that little extra 15% remember so we’re going back to killer Keith he’s doing the top 20s basically four out every 10 starts missed one last week we’re going to go back to the well here hopefully he can take care of business for us it is his most profitable market so Keith Mitchell top 20 bet for plus 160 ties paid in Fage absolute foliage um oh my god dude yeah all the purple boxes you about tossed out your entire but we called it we called the KE you know everyone had him in the in the market there in the DFS outright he ain’t a serious golfer we’ll play the top 20 Market hopefully we rock and roll folks so that’s what’s going on with Keith Mitchell top 20 plus 160 he does that about four out of every 10 starts the last little while and then jumping right into Aaron R folks this is going to be an interesting situ situation I really want to bet him top 20 because I don’t feel like betting $22 to win 10 I don’t feel like betting my 66 to win my 30 but if we go to plus 100 for a top 20 bet for him it doesn’t quite work out we’ve got a negative 12% Edge there Aaron Ry finishes inside the top 20 33% of the time the odds are implying at plus 100 that it’s a 50/50 shot obviously that’s not going to work for us but what does work for us is that minus 220 for some reason the model likes that a little bit more and it’s a delightful situation here so let’s change this to a top 40 back to where we were and we get our 2% Edge I’m cool with Aaron Ry in fact over his last seven starts they’ve all been top 40s doesn’t matter if it’s a US Open a PJ Championship Wells Fargo Lord knows the rocket mortgage was a top 40 he’s finished top 40 in all seven of his last starts we’re okay laying this juice the reason we like this is because the T green game is T pink game he’s fourth in the field in ball striking third in the field on approach 13th off the T and rather solid sharp solid around the greens sitting 47th the issue he’s 74th in putting this year not ideal and that can kind of take a take a beating at this kind of venue if you’re not making enough put you can land up getting behind the eight but what Ry is so good with and so solid he’s so safe because of his T to Green game the putter can malfunction a touch and we’ll still go back to him in the t40 market and he can still cash that for us so Aaron Ry top 40 let’s party with him put the two gloves on and let’s see where that takes us because it’s been a wonderful run of golf for him I mean seven straight top 40s let’s go back to the well thereus 220 I know we don’t like that but we’ve got an edge folks we have an edge so we’re going to take it we need to get exposure to r one way or another I wouldn’t go I wouldn’t go the high upside route I’d go the route that he’s doing repeatedly last seven he’s done it 100% of the time last 21 he’s done it 60% of the time so we love love Aaron Ry for a top 40 bet as Ed shows up in the House Ed check it out bro I’m G to hide this real quick take a quick Sip and you know what let’s do at every 15 minutes so I’m going to type up while we’re going here get your fingers ready get your thumbs ready we’re going to party with a quick little giveaway for the model that I’ll DM you you got to DM me back first on X so that I know I’m going to forget I’m never going to remember who I give this out to I black out on these shows but who is excluding Jordan spe excluding Jordan spe I think I even typed this up wo golfer wise has lost the most dollars in the T20 Market in the last 12 months not Jordan spe we’re not going with that because he’s pretty much the top of every single market so we know that you guys are good fans of the show you know exactly who the guy is which golf has lost the most money in the T20 Market in the last 12 months first person to get the name right in the chat here I’m going to knock you out with a model in your DMs Mike Tyson my spine’s broken it’s spinal I’m going to rock you up with the the model there and let’s have a quick sip of some Bush light as we rock and roll Joanne says s Jim we’ll see waiting for some more people to send some some love in you Jan’s the winner so far it’s the only thing that’s come through but I understand there’s a bit of a delay Christopher saying Camy I don’t think is Camy even I don’t think he’s even in the in the field so that’s definitely maybe I should stipulate in this field who has lost the most money in the top 20 Market not Jordan spe can’t be Jordan spe because he’s lost money everywhere guys it’s in this field JT is not in this field folks we need to get it together cam young is not in this field guys playing in this field got MAV from Ed guy just show up and knows exactly what’s going on Joanne said M JT not playing this week but he probably be high up there he probably would he probably would all right I’m going to give another 10 seconds and then we’re going to rock and roll let me pull up the worst T20 number yet boom all right I’m going to hide this so that we can you guys can’t cheat for the next question maybe and it’s neither of these names yet folks so we’re GNA have to just keep it rolling I’m going to just leave this down here for a little bit if you fired one off already fire off another one I’m cool with that it’s not Jason day it’s not Eric Cole it’s not cam young not Justin Thomas I’ll give you a I’ll give you a clue though it is not Danny McCarthy it is somebody that has won a tournament but it was with a partner in the last two years let’s see if you guys can rack your brain with that one it ain’t Sheamus power it ain’t Danny it ain’t Eric Cole somebody who’s won a tournament that kind of rhymes with the slur yes I understand that was a bit of a bad question there but hey Mike in the house let’s go okay let’s show you guys yeah Jordan spe has lost you $1,261 in that market Nick Hardy has lost you 560 right behind spe over here so in the T20 Market of Nick Hardy with the 4 T20 rate ain’t going to cut it but he’s got a 31% top 40 rate the guy just hasn’t made his way through to the top 20 Market folks so that’s a situation we find ourselves in also make sure that you guys hit the live button so that you are exactly live with me so that when I’m doing this stuff I’m seeing some names come in slightly a little bit later get that stuff coming through ASAP Mike make sure you message me on X please so I can send you that model let’s do another one here at the 30 minute Mark and keep on cruising down the board over here let’s get these guys out of here we’re going to sort by upside and get rid of a column or two probably going to show up a whole bunch of other columns awesome stuff I love it when it does that let’s go this way boom all right beautiful we’ve got some more outrides to speak about also drop your questions in the chat we’ll knock those guys out after the show once I’ve got through all my bets I appreciate you all Riley Joan close Lucas Glover close kind of maybe not I don’t know I think Glover is a pretty solid investment for the most part we’ll see maybe I do a top five maybe I do a top 10 one next maybe it’s a percentage who’s got the highest percentages but that’s for another time we spoken about Aaron Ry Jason day pops as a top 10 for a A plus 320 bet but we’re not going to go there I just don’t like where his form is in this field I’m not going to bet you top 10 when your when your Strokes gain total is 20th that’s not going to not going to get it done so we’re going to have to leave that alone and move on to our next guy our seventh ranked upside golfer and the guy that won it for us here last year folks is sep straa Diet Coke Iron Man He’s our guy this dude playing some good golf top top four in the field in Strokes gain total this guy finishes inside the top five basically one in every four starts so he’s got some serious upside we’ve bet him at 20 to1 we got the four-way places so that’s going to be a plus 500 ticket which is kind of nice for a top four not going to pay the ties in full but sep’s top five Market is plus 350 if you haven’t bet the outright this top five Market pays out a 5% Edge on us we got sepy implying his odds at plus 350 are 22% but if you take a look at his top five percentage in all these big boy events he’s been playing these Signature Events like crazy SE 24% top five rate so in this field we can ramp that up by about 15% and see what is going on in that world and we love it so we love the outright Market we love the the eway and the top five bed for him it’s his best market so far easily he’s gaining over $300 in that market if you’re trying to bet 100 to win 100 every time he teas it up in the last 21 starts so that Market’s returning you some nice bju bucks he’s won this tournament before great form the ball striking is immaculate we’re going to be hitting greens like absolute crazy here I’m not too concerned about his shoddy around the green game the pter we know it can fire up whenever the hell it wants to it happened here at the John Deere last year when his pter went nuclear in those final few so um you got matcho with a rank these three we’ll get to those here shortly we don’t have too many outrights this week so we kind of just ramping through things here Denny McCarthy shows up on our model sitting here in the seventh eight hole and his best Market is the top 10 market and the odds are implying that happens 31% of the time at plus 225 but Denny only finishes inside the top 10 at 22% rate so we’re not quite there on him yet even though he’s popping up here pretty high plus 225 is a pretty short short odds for this dude for his you know interesting situation yeah though if you want to bet Denny McCarthy I would bet him top 10 versus the top 20 Market because we’ve got a serious situation where he’s finishing inside the top 10 every single time he finishes inside the top 20 that’s what Denny McCarthy does so it’s an interesting situation there he’s got that pop upside but at the same time T20 rate only 22% in this field when everyone up up north of him he has sitting 32 33 40s got to get those numbers up those are rookie numbers Denny you guys can also not see my screen because I’m all the way down here but you has Denny McCarthy do I need to zoom in a a bit more if it wasn’t for Jordan Speed I’d be able to make these columns smaller but he’s he’s got like four decimals we need to deal with here Okie does let’s do that and then perfect okay okay we’re doing fine we’re doing fine um who up top scares you the most besides spe I’ll answer that one here shortly um Maverick mcne likely is the guy that scares me the most that he’s he doesn’t have a top five on the PGA tour MAV does not have a top five on the PGA T I repeat Maverick mcne does not have a top five on the PGA tour in his last 17 starts top T are coming through quite nicely but the top five Market is not good now did Cam Davis have a top 10 or a top five at any point in the last 12 months no but he won a tournament so you never freaking know we dealing with a bunch of psychopaths it is what it is life is such so MAV is definitely overpriced I mean look at his look at his Strokes gain total yes that’s nice but in the field he’s the fifth ranked DFS golfer but if you think about this venue if you think about the ability to generate upside he don’t got it he’s one of the only few people in the top of the board here that doesn’t have a top a top five you got to go all the way down to Andrew Novak to find the guy that doesn’t have a top five so tough scenes tough scenes for Al Denny or MAV sorry or MAV we’re GNA leave him alone couldn’t quite get there the top 20 Market wasn’t it even though it is his most profitable of the bunch we’re going to keep on scooting down we got some names that we’re going to get into we we got Old Lucas Glover over here for a top 40 at minus 120 let’s get sep out of the way we are speaking about Lucas Glover now he’s $8,700 at the John Deere where I think he won this thing he plays great golf at this venue he’s minus 120 for a top 40 those are 55% implied probabilities he’s doing a top freaking 40 58% of the time so he’s one of the few dudes in this field that we didn’t need that extra 15% Edge generated there because he’s doing it 58% of the time in designated events granted is a top 40 in a 75 man field that big of a deal considering that field is really stacked with good golfers compared to the John di classic i’ would say so so we’ve got a nice solid 133% Edge there Lucas Glover for a top 40 at minus 120 let’s go man this guy’s course history has been Fantastical and he does Great Stuff does great stuff at this venue top 40 Market is where you want to bet him yeah we go this is a good example of it so his top 40 rate is double his top 20 rate exactly double then his top 10 rate is just shy of being double double of his top 20 rate so Lucas has got this the state the blue color profile we’re looking for you the guys that have those weird ones where the top 10 is the same as the top 20 that’s where you find Value because when they pop they pop that’s what you looking for using this tool that is available to you guys over atr.com I’ll be posting that in my article right after this let’s take a breath here let’s take a breath okay scooting on down we’re going to go all the way to our 25th Place guy his name is Sheamus power but I think I’m also missing a few guys we are indeed we completely skipped over a bunch of dudes Jake knap top 10 plus 650 it’s one of his better markets when he’s inside the top 10 he’s inside the top 20 baby so we would go top five but we’ve bet all of these dudes with each ways I’m not going to try and we you know having more than five top five bets almost doesn’t make sense because how can every one of those bets hit I understand that there’s unlikeliness that all five guys are going to be in there but we don’t want to overload things we want if if it works out perfectly we want Jake knap to finish and cash our top 10 BET at plus 650 Jake nap’s doing it 22% of the time in his 18 starts that’s delightful and it’s a weaker field we saw him play a bit better last week again he’s been struggling in his big boy events Jake knap in the weaker Fields where you don’t need that much power the cognizant classic last week he was playing good he had a tough first round but I think he shot Seven under one of the days on Friday so that was impressive from him he’s a boomer bus character though his top 40 rates 33% not so good but that’s also designated Fields so there’s there’s a lot going on here we like the top 10 at plus 650 a nice little juicy 12% Edge we are going to that well beautiful stuff there from Jake naap our only outout of the Year Maverick is overpriced I agree I feel mavi is a great play on day two of Showdown okay while we’re busy adding our way through here don’t don’t let me get away out of this range but just looking at round by round stuff this is exactly MAV situation over here you can take a look and seees round by round stuff here so rounds one and round three when things are nervy you’ve either started the tournament expectations are high or you made the cut playing well and expectations are higher and he struggles but he always seems to bounce back so what are we saying here for the audio listeners Maverick mcne in round one ranks 86th in Strokes gained total for round one in round two he’s 24th in round three he’s 119th and then round four he bounces back inside the top 20 again so we got two rounds inside the top 25 and then two that are outside the top 85 so I think Ed talk about just nailing the question yeah buddy I mean this is this is exactly Maverick mcne situation it’s it’s a wheel where you want to make sure you’ve got MAV I can’t even get his his stuff right J let me get you out of the way you got to make sure Mavs in your Showdown lineups for rounds two and round four as you can see right here very important smash the like absolutely Jack I love you brother thank you for saying that um yeah nap exactly he was plus one plus 850 last week for a top and now it’s plus 650 weaker field definitely helps you know get not definitely helps justify that but also they saw okay he tends to throw throw up show up on these kind of situations here so yeah that’s what’s going on with nap we like it we like it we like it Matt KH decide if he likes Eric Cole or not could easy disappoint again I’ll keep the good mojo going well let’s do this we’ve actually got a bed on Eric Cole if the computer will let me click a button here there we go nope he’s just right he’s just I’m G to hide this in the meantime there’s a call for you and now we finally get some click click click click not happening all right Eric Cole we like Eric Cole a lot because we got some really nice odds on him he’s not he’s not showing us great recent form but I took a peek at his at his stuff and it looks pretty darn good when it comes to doing what he needs to do the last two starts have been very impressive from him and I think we don’t mind playing Eric Cole for like a high upside play I think that’s what you’re kind of looking at you because he finished nicely last week but he doesn’t have a multitude of top fives but that’s his best Market he finishes inside that top five when he’s playing good golf quite routinely so we’re going to go there plus 800 it’s an 11% implied odds he’s doing it 12% of the time a lot of that was earlier in the year but you know what you have to risk .125 of a unit to win a full unit back to me that’s a fair risk reward situation he’s the one top five bet we are going to go with at plus 800 ties paid in full it’s his most profitable Market if he misses out we’ve we’ve thrown down $1250 to win1 $125 to win1 that’s fair I’m okay losing that money if he doesn’t but if he does yeah we go baby so let’s go there you want to give the company to Eric I think this must be a this has to be a reference what what’s the reference from you what is the reference from um yeah dude this is exactly what we have to Q&A I’ll do the majority of them at the end but I had a B on a call anyway so it was a nice easy situation to kind of move our way in there oh Billy Madison all right I’m gonna have to watch that I don’t recognize that that quote okay folks next up which will do the second second giveaway obviously our main man not going to be able to win twice so feel free to contribute but don’t you know maybe just sit back and enjoy your win there so let the other people have a chance here who has been the most expensive not including Jordan Speed who has been the most expensive top five bet out of all of these guys playing this week who over the last 12 months has cost you the most money betting him top five not including Jordan spe in this even event over the last 12 months to win $100 how much money have you lost betting on this specific golfer the second most costly golfer behind spe in the top five Market who has cost the most money in the T by [Music] market boom all right send those names in I’m going to take another sip over here Joanne says Joanne’s fast she’s got those sneaky fingers popping those names through there quickly it ain’t Jake knap not Jake knap fact I don’t even really know where it is but Jake naps we just went over Jake knap his best Market is a top five Market Joan so that’s that’s naughty Corner stuff for you it’s like the complete opposite of what we’re looking for it ain’t SE ster it’s an interesting name he’s a guy that I bet religiously top 20 he’s actually very profitable in the top 20 Market but the rest of his Market not the best um his name consists of eight total characters eight total characters ooh ooh we got a hot one Mike my man he knows his stuff he watches the show he watches the show we got lots of guys coming in here with Keith Mitchell Mitchell Mitchell Mitchell some Ry guys are pretty close let’s put it up and show you but it’s old bug duer the Gage I speak Mike’s language I speak Mike’s language so let’s go here let’s get the Gage out of the way and boom Tada top five Market dad gim behind Jordan Speed would have lost you 2008 bucks if you’re trying to bet to win 100 every single time however what you want to do is is BET Doug gim top 20 because he does that at a ridiculous rate three out of 10 times he’s finishing inside the top 20 but his top 10 top five rate ain’t it so the gim Reaper folks congrats to Mike I’m sure I’ll remember that um big dougo kicked my balls loow yeah dude exactly um Sam Rai some Mitchell Keith Mitchell righta as well you know with the top fives losing 140 one he’s another top 20 guy though you want to bet him there and then Aaron Ry was a close second $7 behind so it was pretty close but no cigar there for Joan so sorry Joan but you what we pretty close um no Janes said nap who said Keith a whole bunch of you guys said Keith and daro’s in the house what’s cooking daro beautiful just gave away the second model in the DMS Doug gim the worst guy in the field behind Jordan speed at generating top five revenue for you in fact his last year $28 so congrats to Doug gim if you want to bet him go and bet him in the top 20 Market where he has been kind of offsetting the top five Market quite nicely there so lots to like from old douy Doug Doug dug Doug oky doie Davis Thompson let chat about some Davis Thompson here we bet Davis for top 40 last week we bet Aaron Ry for top 40 what do we get from both them freaking top two finishes from both yeah he finished second last week the freaking Davis Thompson so did Aaron Ry our top 40 bets finished runner up so we nailed those bets but our top 20s didn’t show up um yes I like it you got to make sure you betting the right stuff Mike you know what I’m saying you don’t want to be betting the wrong markets finding the right markets it’s the way um that’s also not a bad idea better him at the Players but you know what’s similar to the kind of players this week a short positional Golf Course these kind of venues for Doug gim not the longest guy but he he thrives at these kind of spots but I don’t you know he’s a little outside of the top 20 I can’t quite go to a guy that’s outside the top 20 in my model even though I mean what’s his top 20 rates 28% what’s Doug gim’s situation here Doug gim for a top 20 is plus 230 what does that give us a 2% Edge yeah still so if you want to do that you can but um that’s where we are yeah beautiful beautiful shiple top 40 we’ll get there in a bit remind me please let’s get to Davis Thompson we we bet for a top 40 last week look at these starts and the one T2 was at the Myrtle Beach Classic which isn’t in the metrics for me but it’s worth noting so his last seven last six starts have been second ninth 27th Mr cut 17th and then second again this guy’s trending he’s trending folks plus 3,000 let’s go Davis Thompson D Thompson on the card I’ve been you know a little skeptical of this dude but boy he’s been playing some good golf and I don’t like to bet outrights look I’m not the best outright better but I have a few rules I try to follow I don’t like to bet guys that haven’t finished inside the top 10 recently or even in the last 12 months you got to have some some sort of sensation about feeling the pressure inside the mix there Davis Thompson he’s been dealing with that a lot I mean what he’s got some serious three top 10 in the last six starts two of them being Runner UPS so he’s been close and once again I’m I’m showing you a name that you can’t see but he has Davis Thompson as you can see the top 10 top five numbers not the best but we bet in top 40 last week because he’s a top 40 machine does that six out of 10 times so we love Al Davis let’s see what he can do for us also I don’t need this column no wonder it’s not making sense there we go okay so Davis Thompson great form coming in Strokes gain total sixth in the field love that the ball striking has been great the putter just needs to show up and that’s okay 3,000 to1 30 to1 plus 3,000 we can go to Davis Thompson because this is the situation Jordan you need to get yourself stuck into the live world I think you’re touch behind not going to win any prizes if you commenting on the video after everyone’s already sent their stuff in but I appreciate the comment there MAV mcne was a close Contender but he wasn’t it so Davis Thompson as we keep on scooting down the borderer he’s just amazing when it comes to all sorts of stuff this this middle Ranger he tends to get better the further away we go so maybe the wedge Fest not the greatest thing in the world but he’s been moving the needle that’s all I know is he’s been training pretty good he’s been pring pretty good okay so we have Davis Thompson for 30 to1 each way so what that means and I’ll pull I’ll pull it up here here is bet 365 and I’m going to pull up outrights so they have an outright Market over here pull this up for you guys can you see that nicely so it says in each way before I get into the nitty-gritties here in each way is when it’s basically saying you have to bit the bits this way and that way so you if you want to bet sjm for an outright at 14 to1 you can click his name um we’re going to hide this okay you can click his name and then you can either bet him at 14 to1 whatever you want but that’s just the enhanced odds so like enhanced win is where it’s just straight up picking the winner so he’s 15 to one over here and you click that button you bet you 100 it will return you, 1500 SE same situation but you not got any insurance policies for your top four or your top five if we go back to the outright markets over here that have have the eways you can see their odds have got worse slightly but they give you crappier odds because they’re affording you the opportunity to go all right I’m taking a quarter of this let’s just make it easy for Jordan speed for instance you’re going to take plus 2,000 you have to bet that to win and then if you want the each ways you have to bet that same amount the same exact amount again to get the placement market so if you’re betting 10 bucks on Jordan to win you 200 in the in the enhanced Market that’ll just do it if he wins but in the eway market you’re going to have to bet 10 on the outride and then 10 on the each way so aka the top five and that’s going to give you plus 500 odds because the each way the first number here the the one quarter means that they take the odds and they dice it in a quarter so it’s plus 500 for a top five and they don’t pay ties in full if you go over to the to the three places you’re going to see you’re going to get better odds for Speed it goes all the way up to 30 to1 but you’re getting less places and it’s it’s dividing it by one5 so you get a higher odds for your outright but you don’t quite get you know the the juice because you’ve got only three three places to kind of cash it out as you see over here where there’s a 12 places the odds are the lowest out of all of them because they’re charging you to get those additional 12 places versus the five I hope that helps Matt I did a really bad job of explaining that in the beginning I hope you hung on there and figured out um so yes we’re going with Davis Thompson love what he’s up to and speaking of Davis I see Edward Gail in the chat here asking about Davis Riley no I just can’t do it with that guy he had one week where it was just centilating golf and then now was that so I just can’t do it with him maybe we can figure out where we want to go but we’ve bet old Davis Thompson at 30 to1 let’s get it going for ourselves here we love what he’s up to he’s training so nicely got those eways let’s freaking go spoke about Clover let’s chat about Sheamus Sheamus power baby he’s my guy I love a good Sheamus Power 60 to1 at a golf course that he’s got the 12th best course history at at a golf course that he typically thrives at Short positional golf courses I was looking up some comps Bermuda out there in in Bermuda um no other way to explain that Port Royal I think or St George’s or something like that out on the islands in the windy areas kind of like a foreign Ireland situation for the Irishmen 60 to one he’s won on the PJ tour he hasn’t necessarily had top FES or top 10 but he’s been playing in all these these Signature Events this is like one of the first chances he’s actually had a chance to chances to chance to play in a tournament where he’s arguably one of the better golfers in the field so we like what uh Sheamus has been up to the course history is great what about the course history why does it like him he’s solid with the wedges inside the top 30 for most of them very nice and then once it gets out of there it gets a bit rough but it’s all good we don’t mind that he’s also been playing against some really impressive golfers in his last little wire get us a a JV field over here the John Deere and see what old Sheamus can get up to he’s 60 to1 now that’s it’s a price I’m willing to pay on somebody that’s got this kind of upside he’s a mouth breather who we talking about yet Davis or Sheamus um there we go all right so Sheamus Power 60 to1 our second last outright hopefully can take care of business for us he’s our guy and then finally we got Adam Shank he’s kind of down the board here unfortunately he hasn’t been playing the greatest golf but he’s 66 to1 great course history sixth in the field here with course history got a top five got multiple top 10 Adam shank but the the recent form has been a bit rough he’s 20th in the field in Strokes gain total but the majority of that over the last little while has actually been rather putrid and he might be the Cam Davis this week that we’re looking for if you take a look at his recent starts it’s not been good but at this golf course he can just pop baby and that’s all we’re looking for you that’s all we really looking for is for him to show a bit of form back at this venue show up win this thing it’s not a bunch of amazing golfers in this field hopefully he shows up to the John Deere kind of rekindles that situation and goes from there but it it hasn’t been good so we’re going to kind of hope for the best with that one but it was an early morning click on Monday so that’s where we are um oh you followed shank get the deer who how was his dad was he fun I’m I’m assuming he was pretty cool um we got to we got to pull up nishith over here for old Mike let’s do that and then I’m going to kind of scoot back down the comments yeah all righty so let’s Adam shank all we doing hoping we can catch a cam day gave us in a bottle you pretty much the same odds and all of that so you want to hear a cool story when I was at the John de I was following Kevin stelman because he was playing with or nearby um the guy with the bad back um Morgan Hoffman I was following Morgan I had a big plus 650 Top 40 on him or something made the cut didn’t quite pull through for the top 40 though but he’s been doing some cool stuff and then I saw stman make an ace in person and his brother was there his brother’s a pastor so he his his brother bought me a beer and bought himself a water and off we went his brother was really fun old stman and he made that Ace right in front of us and he bought me a beer very very nice and very generous from the man okay okay I think that’s all of the bets that we’ve gone through let’s answer some questions now let’s answer some questions Matthew nouth is he even in the field man is he even in the field Doug yes he is all right so n Smith we’ve got ranked oh boy what about him are you liking Mich with the zebra print situation the approach play is going to be great that was last year though like last year stuff was good for him it’s not being good so I I don’t have a lot of positive things to say my friend unfortunately I don’t I don’t think he’s he’s got it this week I just don’t think he has it for you so KN sniff KN sniffer I’m not the shest thing in the world there but let’s leave him alone and then post Malone is chair chair kind of almost looks like post Malone if he threw a few more tats on his face but when it comes to approach play at this golf course I mean from 150 to 200 this guy’s dialed the hell in the last little while also pretty Dar good with the long irons so that’s good but the putter like ch’s putter over the last little while has been really poor like very bad there’s like 150 people in this field and he’s 130th out of all of that so I don’t know if I’d go to either maybe chairs for a top 20 but I mean it’s it’s been dire this year my friend it’s been very bad the last 20 rounds of golf we’ve got got what one top 20 not going to not going to encourage you to go there but hey not going to say no he’s your guy play him if you want but maybe in some DFS maybe in some DFS um I know the knee sniff is going to happen for sure all right so Ben calls I’m also I’m going backwards folks I’m going backwards here you know what let’s actually go from the right way why are we being a bunch of psychos I had some questions here beautiful moving on down Shipley for a top 40 okay let’s do this Mike T asks Shipley for a top 40 so Shipley the pulling up his numbers isn’t even going to really do Us justice because it’s like we don’t have a lot of it for him you know he’s doesn’t even have my my stuff in here yet like it’s no no good so it’s going to have to be a a maniac play and I kind of with you there because the guy’s been he been impressive he’s finished inside the top 20 finished 26th at the US Open 20th at the rocket mortgage made the cut at the Masters and gets it dialed in on the am sections yeah he’s been playing a few amateur events as well this year um it looks pretty darn good for him I’ve lost I’ve lost my entire screen there we go it’s been solid but it’s it’s been it’s been so little of a sample size what is his top 40 number for a for Neil Shipley Neil not mcne Neil Shipley oh that’s outrights God damn it let’s find this here quickly top 40 Neil Shipley Neil Neil Neil plus 110 I mean I’m not going to say no to that I think the majority of my cards built out already but 50% or better chance of that happening I mean he’s been dialing it in mean his last three have been top 40s so pretty darn good I like where your head’s at then like I’d go with him in that department um ignore Doug gim gone with that already hopefully Matt understood the okay good so you did understand with the visuals yeah you can see with the odds how it changes the numbers because of the different placings and all that stuff um Novak and Todd’s thoughts for gpp all right fun stuff let’s pull them both up here so Novak doesn’t quite have that top five we were looking for but he’s he’s found himself in the middle of some top 10 early in the season got some solid course history 302 in the field and 25th in Strokes gain total he’s $7,000 flat where does that take him to in who’s around him that’s always what I’m trying to look at as well when we’re looking for golfers around another dude and um Andrew Novak who would I go instead of in his place I mean no one really maybe Nate Lashley is a guy let me get my face out of this way um I think Nate Lash Ashley is definitely someone you can look at just looking at the difference in rankings around Novak but he’s solid I’m not going to take you away from Andre Novak in DFS he’s both of his rankings are above his DFS rank so definite value in that department for me top 10 top 20s he’s going to give you that I mean he’s making solid solid cuts for the most part 61% I don’t mind him I don’t mind Andrew Novak I don’t mind him at all and then you wanted Brendan Todd involved here as well I think Brendan Todd’s got even worse odds or even worse price tag there he is yeah $7,300 and his safety is up there but he’s he drops off when you’re coming for for an upside now the thing is Todd’s course history I think he played pretty nicely yeah last time so we’ve got that going for him but he’s a I don’t know if I’d ever play Brendon Todd in gpps he pops sport radically and I guess a lot more than the rest of the guys around him which is what you’re kind of looking at so I’m not going to really chase you away from that he’s got yeah yes play brenon Todd what am I trying to do yeah this is the John Deere Classic this ain’t no designated field look at what we’re seeing here we’re seeing impressive stuff from him all the time finishing inside the top 40 50% of the time he makes Cuts 85% of the time but the only thing that really disappoints me about Brendan Todd is this situation here let’s take a look at his at his round by round stuff maybe also play some brenon Todd in round one round two Showdown toss him out there for a first round leader potentially in this field he’s top 10 in round one and Round Two Strokes gain total but then it goes to 43rd on a Saturday and then on Sundays he’s 115th he just doesn’t have it when he’s in contention on Sundays and that’s a shame so that’s why gpp for me it’s like H tough but looking at those around him I can I can understand why you like that because the rest of these dudes none of them really have single-digit numbers in their in their round by round stuff Todd’s at least got that early upside you can just Claw on hang on maybe get another top 10 year then we’re looking mighty fine so yeah Andrew Novak Brendan Todd as as some options for gpps not a problem in my book yellow means playing them in DFS so I like Nate Shipley I like Neil Neil Nate Lashley Neil Shipley and we also like Andrew Novak let’s play them all together folks I’m I’m a fan we can do it the bogey avoidance is noax thing we need to make bit more birdies but that was also some stuff from last year all righty let’s scoot on down here nff we’ve already spoken about shank spoke about him Kelly craft let’s go baby let’s go and I’m going to get my face back in here make the screen a bit bigger because this is the fun part about to show you I’ve got this thing working perfectly for Kelly craft and I love old Kelly he’s inside the top 40 every other time he’s played the last 12 rounds now that spans back quite far he hasn’t played a lot recently but he’s definitely doing some good stuff when he does show up what about his game I think it’s the approach number I mean look at whenever he shows up the approach numbers have just been scintilating I’m not too concerned about around the green this week at all and then the putter he used to be a really good putter now the Putter’s kind of drifted off a bit let’s see what he can do the driving accuracy is great the weighted po shot avoidance all of that stuff I mean we’re looking at some seriously improved iron play here it’s small samples because he’s outside the 150 on the FedEx Cup so we’re not getting a lot of run from him but I love him as a sleeper I mean my safety ranking has him at 48th and his DFS rank is 88th now his upside is 105 and the upside is getting whacked here because he’s got no top 10 no top fives so we’re working with it but I’m I’m a fan I like him for top 40s as well because I think you’re G to obviously get much better odds than even money in that market so in fact let’s see because I bet Kelly last week he is for a top 40 plus 220 25 so that’ll probably give you some solid options there too not 205 but 225 it’s a massive Edge but we don’t have a ton of history with this dude remember it’s only 12 rounds of golf so take it with a grain of salt here and there I don’t mind him I love him at $6,600 let’s paint him yellow let’s play him I love it any love for old man cooch I actually had him as my cray cray option last night he just hasn’t been doing it folks he played nicely in 2023 but the last little while just really hasn’t been there for Matt $6,900 he’s just right in the middle year my models got him a bit better than what the rankings are I don’t know I don’t know what I have I have nothing I like Matt cucha at golf courses Matt cucha plays well at he’s never really played well at this golf course surprisingly how often has that even been let’s take a look at Matt Coo’s situation before we kind of get away from him but it likely doesn’t change my opinion on him I mean we’ve got a 17th and a 25th as his best starts this year and he’s been playing in a lot of these random non-s Signature Events because he not good enough to make it into those Signature Events and his best finish finished 67th at the John Deere here in 2023 prior finishes were all before 2010 I wasn’t even in the country at that point so took a long time to say no for old man cooch Ed I don’t like him there’s other options to go bound what would they be it would be like a Ryan Mo maybe a Garrick higo maybe David skins i’ definitely go I mean David skins probably going to be a little more owned than cooch but he’s he’s playing some good golf and I think I’ve been seeing some love from Paton gazay but I wouldn’t go there either some nice options there to get off of him Ben Cole’s top 20 let’s take a look let’s take a look how do you spell this guy’s name CO’s okay top 20 does that about about one in every five starts don’t mind it he’s top 10 rate though I mean he’s top five rate as well I think he popped up right there nice stuff for Ben when was the other top fives I need to add that to the rest of my model so I don’t have to keep pulling up this his name is spelled weird you want to put the H early but it’s not quite getting there so we got a T20 at the rocket last week nice irons were dialed the hell in looks like that’s kind of his Jam CJ cup finished second Puerto Rica open had a sixth outside of that it’s not really been the greatest and the CJ cup he choked away so that was almost a win he makes a freaking par on the final Hall and I think we’re good to go tough scenes for Ben but I mean the putter this is what you like to see from him is a venue that is going to reward these Putters he’s been putting lights out so a top 20 though it’s like hit or miss what is his top 20 number [Music] here Ben Silman Ben Kohl’s plus 320 what does the model tell us there yeah if you’re in the mood Joanne bet him top 20 it’s not the worst thing in the world at plus 320 I don’t mind that at all maybe you want to go top 10 do we get a better Edge if we go there oh this is also for a top 40 so [ __ ] [ __ ] no good let’s make this a top 10 bit and change it to 750 which is his top 10 odds maybe you bet him top 10 I’d bet him top 10 Because he pops he’s a popper he just does his thing as you see you know like we’ve got these Spike weeks love the putting anytime he finishes not inside the top 20 it’s like not you know what I’m saying so yeah easy peasy let’s go top 10 for our guy Ben CO’s over there Joan don’t mind that whatsoever think I think I like Shipley over Clanton I think so too I think I think between the two of them they’re going to be very popular both the Clanton likely just the fact that he’s higher price than Neil by quite a significant margin is interesting you know I don’t have either ranked very high they don’t like this is the thing we don’t have enough data for all these guys yet so we’re going to have to see what these dudes get up to but you know see we don’t even have like data for off these dudes so it’s hard for me to say but at $8,600 that’s that’s a steep price that’s a steep ass price to kind of ask the people to pay for Luke Clanton I mean what is he outside of the rocket did he do anything else doesn’t even have a freaking track record yet um cool this usually slows down the stream a lot but let’s see what we can find on need to see what this guy’s track record is planton Boom was it last week the only time he really had a good week look at this it doesn’t even show him up first even after we clicked his name 84 results let’s just go here um it’s taking forever for me I don’t know what to say about Luke Clanton I don’t know what to say to you because it’s so new it’s like so fresh these guys think about like when these guys first show up they they have these good rounds and then everyone gets excited and then all of all of a sudden it’s like oh boy he’s doing what Nick dunlap’s doing again you know Nick Dunlap starting to show back up again but after that really good performance now it was a win it’s not like a solid finish let’s find the stupid ass thing here okay rocket mortgage was the last one maybe if we click his name from within the rocket mortgage we can kind of find out how he’s been doing this season I don’t know off the top of my head so where is he at you finished 10th which is great congratulations you’s profile does that take us to the promised land so he’s played in two events that’s it so Jesus all of that for nothing they can’t even tell us which was the rocket mortgage and the US Open so maybe but I think he’ll be is also very expensive maybe that helps what a mess took forever for me to get to that situation only played twice this year I should know that nonsense so yes Matt thank you for asking about Luke Clanton and getting me on a complete tangent over there also one of my five greatest golfers of all time Dylan fatelli yes yeah and he’s playing with like nothing to really lose you know like he got kicked off The the DP of the PGA Tour next thing we know frell’s back in business doing his thing over on the the DP let’s take a look here Fratelli on the DP World Tour I think he had that win in Bahrain earlier in the year yeah I don’t know bu it hasn’t really been the best you know the lack of green boxes on the DP will to to translate you maybe but he’s $6,200 he’s obviously won at the John Deere classic Way Way Back 2019 but even after after that he’s got a top 30 and a bunch of miscuts so Zack if you want to go for it I wouldn’t if I were me but I’m not me I am me you’re not me so there we go um Shipley is now no longer an amateur he went pro I think at the rocket and then I think Clanton is still I think he’s still a I think Clanton said that unless he gets his tour card he’s going to stay at f you for the four years I think he’s is he a sophomore now or a junior so you know there’s a lot going on there you bet dude anytime we are um I know Clanton didn’t make any money last week Neil Shipley made some money last week so finally all the time bud this is what we here for this is the Q&A part of the show this is what we’re doing you are most welcome ant there we go throwing up in the chat again Doo I see what’s going on I see what’s going on you the instigator I’m going to have to get some clown music for you chase you out of the chat um and the clown music reference Sweet Spot DFS over here on the screen go check out that YouTube show right after mine I usually go right before daro and then I’m going to be in the chat there he has a sweet spot Optimizer it’s a badass tool and it’s really fun you learn a lot about pairings and how to build optimal DFS lineups you can ask him to build your own lineups for you using a specific set of golfers it’s a great time in there um it’s gross what the what are we talking about you Dylan Fratelli is that what we throwing up at you Zack Johnson or nothing yes you know what I was thinking about is a Zack Johnson top for you because old ZJ 27th in the field he’s been making Cuts folks like he’s been playing in golf and making Cuts he’s making cuts at a 50% clip only finishing inside the top 40 at a 25% rate but let’s pull up old zj’s course history at the John D I think I bet him top 20 or top 40 last year and he let me down a bit but he seems to be playing a bit better golf lately so look at this John Deere record here holy buckets so the 2022 instance was his first non top 40 in Forever bounced back again in 2023 so I think old ZJ let’s find out ZJ here because I will be betting this as a maniac play plus 170 yes baby maybe we we make the cut again and it struggles to to get to the top 40 but he’s been doing it religiously he knows his golf course and the top 40s have been coming a bit better you know most of the he’s been playing much better and the the putter is starting to fire up again which is good to see goes to a golf course obviously got Sensational value there let’s see what happens if we go plus to 170 for a top 40 going to give us a Negative Edge but it’s pretty close still and we know what we know about this venue that Zack Johnson does he thing um I can’t do cooch anymore I could do ZJ beautiful catching up to the chat yet anytime Ed you are most welcome ZJ gonna at least make the cut isn’t he dude exactly so I’m glad we kind of getting into the Zack Johnson situation I like him for a top 40 a plus 170 give it a grip you know like why not sweat the dude that’s Mr John Deere really you know I don’t think strick is in the the field probably is Stricker even in the field this week no he’s not so he’s going to be doing it all for the Quad City Quadzilla fans out there so love some ZJ going on in that range um he’s definitely going to make the cut potentially he’s done it a million times at this venue um he’s golfing good yes um okay so buang buang is where you guys are you guys are speaking to each other got got you I got you um yeah I know isn’t that the funny thing since he’s been the captain of the rider cup his game has got better he was like you know what these guys sucked the captaincy sucked I need to get back on the team he’s never gonna make the team again but you know what I’m saying love this course in the past okay we still speaking about ZJ um yeah Okay cool so we finally arrived at Top 40 let’s go ZJ top 40 Squad ride let’s go baby plus 170 got ant you about Hodges you know he flies under my radar for some reason but maybe we find something here that kind of makes some sense for us and click this button one time and completely screw everything up no we’re good okay beautiful what do we think of Hodges well he’s 7 7500 bucks my rankings having 15 spots worse than the DFS rank so that’s not a great start let’s see what his um finishing positions are yeah he’s a top 40 guy likely makes a lot of sense he’s sitting around that in the market over here the top 20s just come every now and then one in every five for old hodgers so plus 100 for a top 40 that’s right on par you know I think that’s going to give us pretty much like a what a 1% Edge 3% Edge so there’s a market for you to go if you’re in the mood for Lee hodgers top 40 what does that look like in the last little while okay so yeah I mean top 40 top 40 top 40 T45 top 40 Miss cut so I mean lately he’s been doing some top 40s the approach numbers looked really good maybe he missed the cut the rocket tough week whatever but the approach numbers have been very good the put has been very good that’s a it’s a combin that can be quite lethal it’s just we’ve we’ve not pieced it together yet we don’t have a top 10 outside of the 3M open that he won by five over Kevin by seven at the Twin Cities wow over Kevin stman godamn so yeah he goes and wins something by seven and then doesn’t have a finish better than seventh I mean he’s got one finish better than a few finishes better than 17th only so yeah buang no Jordan spe maybe he wins this thing it would be one of the craziest stories ever but I’m out on this guy can’t do him anymore I mean Jordan spe he’s the number one ranked DFS option but his his safety ranking is 28th his upside ranking is 13th like there’s no value his price on the on the odds board it’s ass astronomically bad we’ve got plus 115 for a top 20 let’s just plug this in and see what kicks out I mean obviously it’s going to be horrific it’s one of the worst edges on the board so price-wise he’s he’s way overrated and the thing is I’ve always said if you ride the roller coaster with Jordan spe you ride it alone so you throw up on yourself you want other people’s throw up on you because it’s coming the throw Up’s coming that’s my weather report the spe spe low pressure system on the on the roller coaster coming in hot got a Phoebe cam Phoebe cam Feb cam there she is beautiful dog isn’t she anyway so yeah speed yeah the speed throw up um it is what it is it is what it is all right taking five questions while I wrap this up thank you all for showing up thank you all for tuning in thank you all for the questions guys we’re rocking the questions are amazing Joanne’s got I love it Joan’s so quick quick to the point here let’s see if we can do this get a little Phoebe cam action at the same time yeah all right so I’m going to do one more thing extra camera please let me know if you can still hear me boom okay where’s Mike Maybe we can get him in the house because I know he’s a big fan of the feus all right um Burger top 10 let’s go look for Daniel burer now the fun part about Daniel Burger is it’s literally one part of his game that’s missing that when it shows up we’re in trouble but I don’t know if you want to be soon or late on this because what Daniel Burger used to be was the opposite not the opposite he was so well-rounded in all departments but he short game right now in 34 shotlink grounds is 129th in this field now you got to make a lot of putts and that’s what’s really bringing him down the most but the ball striking is Sith in this field so maybe like a first round lead a bit um Showdown potential definitely I mean with this kind of a profile maybe the putting comes and goes but it might show up for one day and the ball striking is going to be there you know I don’t mind it what is a top 10 for this guy because maybe that’s the way to bet him he doesn’t have any yet so that the odds are going to be ass but we know what’s going on with the putter if that just flips then we looking good let’s see has he had any positive situations with the putter in the last little while no he hasn’t gained with the putter yet but it’s been like close it’s been really close so I don’t know I don’t know what to tell you I think it’s a wait and see type situation but I mean we’ve got in these last 25 rounds of golf or 25 events we’ve got stuff here from 2022 still you know when he was playing let’s so what I’m trying to say let’s go to his profile yeah 2021 when he was playing some of his best golf 2022 you’re seeing these These putts are dropping the short game used to Daniel Burger I think in 2022 led the the PGA in scrambling and now we’ve got now we’ve got this it’s not going to work out just yet now this is looking good the approachin off the T but I’d probably just bet him top 10 if you’re in the mood what is his top 10 BET did we find this out [Music] yet plus five 50 so if you think Daniel Burger’s got a better chance to finish inside the top 10 smash it but you know we haven’t seen too much of that just from him yet kizna Denny McCarthy oh and someone asked me to rank three guys Wow way at the beginning let me make sure that that happens as well it was early too there we go Matt sorry you guys need to remind me about this stuff okay rank these three Maniac Glover hubard and Poston okay Poston Glover hubard and I’ll tell you why we’ve already spoken about Poston obviously he’s an outright he’s like top rank guy in my model all of that stuff we’re g to see a lot of that from him I mean poston’s like 10th in DFS price but secondly my he’s my value guy this week I know Spencer would likely be on him this week again we’re in on poon then if you just scroll down a little bit more we’ve got Glover over here so Glover let’s see let’s do because Poston in my opinion is in a totally different Stratosphere compared to Glover and hubard and hubard folks is one of the most fascinating case studies I’ve ever seen and it’s a total situation of I don’t give a [ __ ] over the weekends excuse my French but you cannot you cannot and I repeat cannot have made as many Cuts as Mark hubard has an 81% clip and then only finish inside the top 40 41% of the time it’s barely half of your made Cuts finishing inside the top 40 he’s got this top 20 number here for the last 27 events awesome but I’m going to pull up his stuff for this year and show you what a let down he has been over the weekend and to me I think lover provides you with a bit more upside than this because he has you’re not going to see a miscut you you’re not going to see a single miscut from Mark hubard at all but this was a three- round tournament he finished fourth maybe he falls all the way out of the world when it comes to round four at Pebble Beach that was his best finish that was his only top five without a teammate which she finished third at the Zurich obviously a non-important event then prior of that he had a T20 and that’s his only top 20 outside of the the fourth at Pebble I mean look at this we how many top 40s have we had one so in the last one two three last six starts he’s made the cut in all of them we’ve got a 26th at the PJ Championship which I think he was like inside the top 10 after round two and finished 26th the rest of the time it’s disgustingly bad and and you can see it in his profile over here if we go all the way to the end he’s 45th in round three scoring 23rd in round four but round one and two he’s seventh and 13th so he’s like much better in that department Lucas Glover on Saturdays really really likes to play some Saturday golf so I’d be leaning into Glover in round three for sure that seems like a place to kind of go to so that’s the situation yeah are you in the mood to have a guy make cuts at a ridiculous rate and not finish inside the top 40 or would you go to Glover who’s got a bit more upside than marbit at a golf course that Glover’s got the best course history so I’d probably go Poston Glover HD took a million years to get there but hey we’re having a good time oky doie scrolling all the way back down I can’t believe I remembered that one Andy putam okay for a top 10 okay okay okay I think you’re going to like what you see I think you’re on the right in the right space here Mike putam look at this boom top 10 BET immediately he’s 15th in safety which is you know whatever let’s find old Putty Putty putt putt ah no idea where he’s even on the on the odds board okay so top 10 is plus [Music] 700 there’s a solid Edge over there I definitely lean into that top 10 at plus 7 to1 basically boom um you’ve got that going on there for you odds 133% implied Edge but at the same time it’s a third sorry the raw Edge is seven but the implied probability is only 13% he does it 177% of the time so you’re getting an edge but but it’s not like a repeated Edge I think maybe you know the market might be for him a top 40 is plus 130 I think you know you that way you’re at least getting something that happens half the time and the odds that they implying are 43% yet his top 40 rate is 46 without adjusting anything then you adjust it we get a nice little edge here so I would go to putham for a top 40 instead it happens a lot more often than the the top 20s and top tens right because old puam what’s he been up to recently it’s not being good it’s not being good so yeah I don’t know I don’t know when it’s when it’s just like red in the ball striking column especially lately Mike no I’ve seen what I’ve seen enough can’t do it with plattinum even though the odds are saying nice juicy stuff can’t do anything with that Ben Griffin this week on N good birdie percentage rates I believe yeah man let’s take a look at Old Ben Griffin [Music] yeah Ben Griffin pull his ass up again he’s one of these dudes that is a top 40 machine I think this is the world you want to live in here because looking at Ben Griffin’s recent form even with the eyes and the floaters and the blind Three Blind Mice Factor Ben Griffin has a second at the RBC Canadian and that’s his only top 10 this year outside of the American Express to start the year off so tough scenes there he just never seems to finish off the round um and it’s because of this situation look at his round two scoring incredible stuff round one always gets him out of contention it seems but guess what I did I bet him as coming off of surgery last week he’s round one scoring is ridiculously bad I bet he’s over on Strokes he he finished inside the top 10 after round one he shot minus five so I don’t know this guy’s just an anomaly I think you can definitely slow throw him into some lineups in DFS he’s really sharp around the greens you know he’s got all the tools you’re looking for and he’s ranked exactly the same for all three different things you DFS rank upside and safety all the same 21st in the field there’s no real Edge you know it’s a it’s a pick your poison type situation there I think that’s what we’re getting here I don’t see him winning this tournament I’ll put it that way but he’s you know the odds reflect that great interactive show yes man this is what I’m trying to do I appreciate pat bringing me more customers and more commenters because we on Mayo media now completely um back bets is kind of collecting a bit of dust I need to figure out a new strategy in that department but um this is still back n Bits just on Mayo media my brother far canel what’s up my man any love for Campo top 20 woo that’s a name out of nowhere C see he’s gonna no even even looking at the odds like a 9% hit rate in that market what it’s been one top 10 in his 11 starts um not ideal so yeah the around the green game being his best trait around the John Deere is not going to help you it’s not going to help you so I’m we’re not here to say hip hiip ho we are here to say hip hiip stay away unfortunately all right Chris you’re showing up as we wrapping things up my friend we’ve been doing this for 86 minutes um Michael Kim yeah you spoke about him in the Discord with us so let’s take a peek throw some throwups in the chat there let’s take a look at Michael Kim who pretty much threw up all over himself as we went along all right so let’s got got three Kims and Michael’s at the top good stuff so Michael Kim again top five rates lacking top 10 rates lacking just been struggling overall I think what we do have to look at obviously won this thing like in 2018 by a million basically did the the Lee Hodges of the John Deere that year $7,400 the proximity numbers are solid for him The Strokes gain numbers are not so make of that what you want the mid irons are very good for him he’s very very good from 150 to 200 gets a little worse from 200 and out but it’s the wedges that have been really letting him down the last little while and I think I think that’s going to be necessary to play good golf this week so I don’t know if he can get right there you know despite his his short game solid the approach numbers are solid but the ball striking the dri has been all over the place so I don’t really have much to tell you there I really don’t he’s 34th in BFS ranking and he’s he’s backwards for me so can’t can’t do Michael Kim this week sorry not yet some Johnny V all right Christopher let’s find you some jonthan Vegas yeah Johnny Vegas [Music] [Laughter] top 40s I’d bet him top 40 I wouldn’t bet him anything else than that like when when you’re not con don’t have a top 20 yet but hey 36% of his 11 starts have been top 40s have they been more recent or have they been so far away that we don’t even know which ones they are okay so rocket and the RBC Canadian let’s pull this up right yet check this out some solid stuff if he not making the cut it’s a top basically a top 30 the last three or four times he’s played so yes top 40 Market would have been 1 two 3 four of seven so yeah and what is his what are his odds right over here top 40 plus 115 drap Sena coming out oh raw Edge not quite there for us you know the 36% so can’t quite get there yet but we have seen four of the last seven have been top 40s but it’s the John Deere so you’re going to get plus 115 instead so if you’re in the mood I’m not going to talk you away from it you know you can see some Maniac recent form kind of filtering in there if we go four of seven that gives us what like a 60% clip 65 which is not 36 but we also then picking and choosing our our timelines oh my goodness I’m going to have to have another drink here also I didn’t even nearly get done with this freaking push Light peach all right all right so we’ve got what about Lashley I’m a fan I think we used him as a pivot off of somebody else earlier [Music] um Nate Lashley obviously grades out spectacularly for my model he’s half the DFS rank in my model versus what the price is at $7,400 so we’re getting some solid upside there or value at least the t5s he’s got one of those t10s he’s got a few you t20s are better finishing inside the top 40 once every now and then now what is his situation you do have to throw this stuff into context and I want to make sure that my um my model can start doing this a bit bit I need to make sure that I can figure out how to put the percentages and power rate them to determine how it applies from like a signature event to this kind of a week but Nate really hasn’t finished better than the 13th at The Players where he went absolutely nuclear on approach the approach numbers are his thing we haven’t seen much of that recently if you were going to bet him I mean his last six starts the best finish has been a t39 without a partner and it’s all been it hasn’t been big boy events you know it’s caral putana Valero none of them are Signature Events so he’s been struggling so Nate ah you know the model likes him as a cfit got a 21st and a 26th year in these three starts so maybe in DFS I’d I’d play him I think there’s value in the DFS Market but I’m not entirely sure where I’d go when it comes to betting him um Rio HS it Sunni phbe always shows up and then she peels the hell out all right Rio I think if you’re looking for some Rio inspiration you’ve broken my computer asking that um he hasn’t been playing Great Golf lately and in the meantime while this stupid spreadsheet slows itself down Rio hits atsun or hatat as D would say we’ve got one to so okay his game starting to kind of make its way back downtown walking fast pacing is a blast and he’s homebound for another top top 40 maybe is the way to go about this guy we haven’t seen a top 10 finish yet on the PJ tour we’ve had a few top 20 bets but he’s been finishing one two three four five of the last six seven8 n so solid you know he’s batting over a 50% success rate over there and I need you I’m glad you recognize that one but yeah maybe top 40 what does his top 40 market look like yeah is my computer back to not being a little stubborn we’re not going to say bad names on this thing yeah so the DFS worlds they’ve got him way overpriced compared to what I have him right now um as you can see yeah the top 40 Market’s the way to go with this guys so maybe we go there maybe I might even ride this with you who asked this Simon oh that was Lashley was faran now faran now all right let’s find let’s find this dude what’s his name Rio his top 40 Market is even money we know that that’s going to give us an edes based off of his actual top 40 rate woohoo so far I wouldn’t do the top 20 I would lean into the top 40 here’s top 20 Market is plus 230 so remember we got a 15% Edge there 230 for a top 20 -2% Edge so you want to go to the top 40 Market we’re getting plus money even money for that he’s been doing it quite quite routinely as well so the upsides missing a bit but I love him for a top 40 bet and I’m going to consult with Spencer and make sure I’m a fan but I would imagine that’s probably the way to go about betting this guy beautiful beautiful beautiful low own 7K or less beautiful let’s do this let’s just we’re going to go number filter less than 7,000 and [Music] one and then we’re just going to go filter by upside and see who shows up first max gracan shows up as our first option hasn’t really done too much with the top 20 Market but at $6,900 you’re going to get a top 40 three out of out of every 10 starts so that’s not terrible I do like to see a few more top 20s so like David skins the the consistency is not going to be there for you unfortunately but his upside is so at 6,900 bucks I’m a fan of David skins for sure Ryan Moore always gonna be intriguing at a venue like this with the course history but we’re not going to really get too much love from him you know like 26% t40 rate is pretty ass but 177% of the time he’s inside the top 20 isn’t terrible also I’m I’m hiding stuff again God damn it Barron okay I’m a big fan of Chan Kim I like what he’s been up to know got a solid T20 rate love him on these easier courses you know in my corn faery research situation I would go and Chan was like one of the top easy scoring condition guys where is he at you looking at easy scoring conditions Chan is 12th in the field some of that some corn faery events in there as well but that’s Strokes gain raw raw Strokes gain so love him at these kind of venues Chan Kim will be in the player pool Ryan Moore DFS or bets I think what we’re seeing from Ryan Moore is I think I just went over him right now and I think we can’t really remember exactly I’ll get back to that chat in a bit but I’d probably play him in DFS I don’t trust him as a BET right now okay so CT pan for me is always going to pop quite nicely if he’s healthy he’s super cheap as well 6200 bucks Mac mner mner however you want to say that name been playing some solid golf um dude does his stuff he’s 7,000 flat we’ll see I think he’s going to be a popular option but he’s been doing his thing I mean top top 58j Strokes gain total for for the last little while um who’s the CT pan doing some good stuff Kevin D doing good things I don’t know about him Sam Ryder you definitely want to play this guy in DFS if you’re looking for points he just dominates the points World um Carson young what’s he been doing let’s get this um first time watch you first time watch your let me see I can’t enjoying your cont oh thanks my man um cheers brother think Rio is struggling with language marry in the USA but he’s got game yeah he does I mean he’s a baller dude and sometimes it takes takes a while to come from another continent another tour to kind of get your stuff figured out I can I can see what’s going on there okay what were we looking at here we were looking at who were we looking at it was someone cheap Sam it was Carson [Music] young plus 187 but we also trying to look up his actual stuff I’m starting to hit a a a brick wall here folks starting to lose some concentration this might be my final one seems like everybody’s kind of asked all their questions so Carson young top 40 last little while top 40 top 40 top 40 miscut miscut so has got three top 40s but it looks like the game’s starting to move in the right direction um you know you’ve got that going on there the driver’s been great accuracy is always good to see at at the John Deere you want some accuracy maybe maybe John Dunlap or Shipley last one in DFS you want I would probably play both but n Dunlap Nick Dunlap has shown us a bit more and I like him at easy scoring conditions I think Shipley is also going to be quite popular everyone’s a fan of these guys right so but I think Shipley was the he was in 7K range and done na we haven’t really spoken about him but he’s kind of just a whatever kind of situation however he likes himself this kind of golf course so yeah but he’s $8,900 jesuses Jesus that’s ridiculous $8,900 for Nick Dunlap what on Earth has he done to deserve that this ain’t no Nick Taylor T10 T12 t24 t11 since he’s win he hasn’t had a top 10 yet at 8,900 bucks woo that’s tough boys that’s tough the ball striking solid I think he puted his brains out at at the American Express so that makes a lot of sense but I don’t know maybe he’s very sporadic at $8,900 man that’s gosh that’s a tough sell that’s a tough sell yes overpriced under owned but at the same time the value you know like where is the value on the price tag yeah now both my rankings have him 25th and 22nd yet the DFS rank is 12th ideally you’re looking for a low owned guy that you have value on so let’s see for instance like like Kevin Yu at $8,800 his ownership will will be significantly lower than Nick Dunlap and they’ve got a pretty similar top 10 rate don’t talk about the top 20s and top 40s but pretty similar top 10 rate you know but if you’re in the mood for Nick lap this is the John Deere classic you know that’s the thing he’s he’s 17th in the field in Strokes gain total the last little while but he’s 12th in DFS so you know there’s a bit of missing value there but if you’re a fan of Nick I’m not going to talk you off of him it’s just the prices he y yeah so boom hour 40 fun times you know I could do this all day with you guys but you ran out of questions just kidding thank you so much all for tuning in don’t forget use code summer in the description below 30% off our r stuff it’s everything spener stuff Spencer’s bets my bets in the Discord the tools I’m still working on a nice badass tool that’s going to provide you guys all of this stuff showing you the edges for the different bets and stuff I’m working on something that you can like change the amount of time that comes into the percentages that you use to to work on like if you want to just look at the last three months I wouldn’t suggest that you’re looking for a nice sample size that’s typically what I like to do but that tool is going to be coming out you soon when I get a Gap going to build that bad boy make it badass it’s going to be fun we’ve also if you haven’t seen got the $100 bill shirt hanging on the on the post here it’s freaking time it’s freaking goddamn time SE ster Davis Thompson JT Poston Sheamus power Adam shank let’s go you five guys get your ass into the winner circle this week it’s go time we want to wear that shirt it’s getting Dusty it’s getting rusty and I’m not a fan of that we need to hit a winner you soon we’ve got our guys we hit the John DEA last year I’m going to be there all four days I’ll be kicking balls into the rough if I have to not not going to do that but I appreciate you all hit the like subscribe to Mayo don’t forget to sign up to rab.com using Code summer catch you guys next week Tuesday boom
7 Comments
Help me: SCHENK or POWER?
Hope I see you there.
my fav SA
cant wait to seee drenched in sweat on tv but no…lol you'll have a cool Bev in hand
getting those views now babyyeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
What God do to you?
972 views should equal 972 Likes come on people!