Mountain West Football Preview 2024: Picks and Predictions | Win Totals and Future Bets

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The MWC Preview Includes:

▶️ New Mexico (2:49)
▶️ Nevada (9:18)
▶️ Hawaii (14:35)
▶️ Utah State (19:32)
▶️ San Jose State (23:36)
▶️ San Diego State (28:24)
▶️ Colorado State (33:19)
▶️ Air Force (37:45)
▶️ Wyoming (42:45)
▶️ UNLV (46:08)
▶️ Fresno State (50:50)
▶️ Boise State (53:55)
▶️ BEST BET (1:01:04)

In the latest episode of the Bet the Board podcast, Brad Powers steps in for Todd Fuhrman and Payne Insider to provide an in-depth preview of the Mountain West Conference. The discussion begins with New Mexico, where Powers notes the challenges the team faces with a lack of depth and a rebuilding year ahead. Moving to Nevada, he highlights their potential defensive strengths but expresses concern about their offensive capabilities.

For Hawaii, Powers discusses their unique home-field advantage and offensive scheme but also points out their defensive vulnerabilities. Utah State’s outlook seems mixed, with potential on both sides of the ball, but consistency remains a question mark. San Jose State gets praise for their experienced roster and solid coaching, while San Diego State is expected to be strong defensively but might struggle offensively.

Colorado State is another team in transition, with a focus on rebuilding and improving their overall competitiveness. Air Force, known for their disciplined and effective play, is highlighted as a potential dark horse in the conference. Wyoming’s rugged defense and strong running game are discussed, but their passing game could hold them back.

UNLV’s improvement is noted, especially with new coaching and an influx of talent, but they still face an uphill battle. Fresno State’s solid foundation and balanced team make them a contender, while Boise State is pegged as the conference favorite due to their consistent performance and depth.

Powers concludes the episode with his BEST BET for the season, highlighting a team with a favorable schedule and strong potential to outperform expectations. This comprehensive preview offers listeners valuable insights and analysis for the upcoming Mountain West Conference season.

#CollegeFootball #CFB #MountainWest #CFBpicks #SportsBetting #Betting #Gambling #CollegeFootballPicks #FootballBetting #FootballPicks #BettingPicks #BoiseState #Hawaii #airforce

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[Music] bet the board what do you mean don’t bet I mean I don’t bet you know I don’t care I never have and I never will yeah right I’ll bet you 20 bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day you owe 15 15 grand pal pay him pay that man his money it’s the bet the board podcast God likes me he really really likes me in the end I wound up right back where I start started I could still pick winners and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home and why mess up a good thing here’s pain Insider and Todd Ferman all right once again this Brad Powers filling in for Todd Ferman and pain Insider as we continue our preview series for the upcoming 2024 season we are previewing the group of five conferences two conferences down already three to go and today we are talking Mountain West football and speaking of the Mountain West I think major storyline for the Mountain West is a season of transition this is a conference that has six that’s right half the league has a new head coach this season that is the most in any season in the 26 year history of the Mountain West so a lot of coaching turnover obviously that brings in today’s day and age with the transfer portal and nil a lot of roster turnover so a lot of unknown question marks when it comes to the league and and we’ll see if we can attack it and find some value when it comes to the Mountain West and we will have at the end of this podcast a Mountain West specific best bet season win total so make sure you’re checking that out at the end of the podcast storyline number one is that coaching turnover I would say storyline number two in the first year of the expanded college football playoff can this conference finally make its way back to the top of the G5 because Boise State obviously was the the the flag bearer for this conference for so many years in fact Boise state was the first group of five representative when they did the first year of the new year six and they gave an automatic birth to any uh the top rated conference Champion out of the group of five Boise State way back in 2014 was that first group of five rep the conference hasn’t been doing major bull bit since so we’ll see is it Boise State this year does UNLV continue their upwards trajectory does Fresno State rebound uh we’ll see if there is a team I’m here to tell you I think there is a team in fact I think there’s a very strong chance that that streak might end this season but before we get to that team you know what we do here as far as if you’ve been listening to the first couple of previews the uh group of five 2024 preview series we start at the bottom of the league and work our way towards the top at the bottom is one of those teams with a new coach and is New Mexico and a you know familiar name comes back to New Mexico but before we get into that obos last year Danny Gonzalez was their head coach they fired him I was a little surprised by it the fact that they only gave him four years I thought Gonzalez was given a a very dealt a very tough hand because his first couple years New Mexico was severely limited in 2020 and 2021 New Mexico as a state had very strict covid policies remember New Mexico had to practice and stay here in Las Vegas during the 2020 season because those Co policies they had a lot of offseason practice issues the following year in 2021 and I thought last year was his best team I know they only went four and eight but statistically they were okay they actually outgained their opponents on the season so the fact that they got he got fired after his best season you know maybe there was something else going on and you know I can only speculate but you know if you do know and we’re following closely uh as far as the betting Scene goes there was a game last year with New Mexico and UNLV all field Rumblings a lot of line movement a very precarious line movement on a game day maybe there was something that didn’t set well there I’m not sure but obviously Danny Gonzalez is out insert Bronco mendenhal which is an upgrade to say the least obviously Bronco’s got a ton of experience he’s won 135 games in his career as a head coach at BYU in Virginia uh it’s 17 years he was originally if you go way back in in the day dating myself here a quarter Century but he was a defensive coordinator here under Rocky long in the late ’90s early 2000s uh he’s been off the last two seasons re-energizing uh he did hire two familiar faces that he’s very familiar with Jason Beck who’s the starting quarterback at BYU under men and Hall and most recently Syracuse’s OC the new DC Nick how was a DC at BYU under men and Hall most recently Vanderbilt’s DC the last two years so I an experienced coaching staff a coaching staff that’s very familiar with one another I think even though I was a pretty big Danny Gonzalez fan and thought he got didn’t get you know dealt a fair hand I this is an upgrade on the coaching staff now there will be some work cut out for this coaching staff as far as the the lack of returning personnel only nine returning starters from New Mexico they lose their quarterback Dylan Hopkins but that damp Year kid uh got plenty of snaps last year in fact he had a 60 touchdown interception ratio and he’s actually more of a runner than a thrower uh he was a third leading rusher on the team he looks like the clear-cut starter this year he got most of the snaps in the spring they’re very comfortable with him didn’t even really look out to to go in the portal post spring so that tells you that they they like their quarterback uh one guy that I really liked on tape rewatching some games from last year their running back jakori crosy Merritt guy had topped 1,00 yards last year ran for 17 touchdowns you look at Pro Football Focus and I know sometimes that leaves Pro PFF leaves a lot to be desired but still it is a measuring tool and I think the value is greater than zero when it comes to something like that I’m getting the point I’m getting to is jakori croski Meritt last year for New Mexico their running back third highest graded running back in the country Ashton Genty at Boise State was number one audri esate at Notre Dame was number two uh Meritt transferred Arizona big pickup there for Arizona obviously estim off to the NFL and M crossy Merritt uh you know leaves a big some big shoes to fill here I did like what I saw from Andrew Henry on tape he withdrew his name from the portal I was you know this is a kid that averaged 6.7 yards for carrye he’s back they welcome in a couple of power four transfers so U I think they’re okay at running back it’s a slight downgrade but not a big one two of their top three wide receivers are gone and Jeremiah Hixon and DJ Washington I thought Hixon was their second best skill position player behind the running back crosy Merritt uh but he’s gone Medford does return he led the team in receiving last year uh but there’s certainly some qu more questions than answers when it comes to receiving position I think they’re going to be more of a run heavy team than pass uh concerned about the offense line zero returning starters on the offensive line had some legit players too uh their offensive tackle JC Davis was the fourth highest graded offensive line offensive linan in the country fourth highest keep in mind the top two Joe alal and fuaga from Oregon State went in the top 15 in the NFL draft uh Davis transferred to Illinois two others on the offensive line transferred to Purdue and Arizona State respectfully so there was some Talent on that old offensive line coming out of spring it looks like all five starters are going to be transfers three of them are coming from the FCS ranks but all of them even though they have zero returning starters uh from the unit last year all five of these kids have started elsewhere so that that is the benefit of the transfer portal era you can bring in some experienced guys even if they’re not experienced to your own team on defense let’s flip over to that top tackler transferred uh to Kansas State Moreno uh their top quarterback Dante Martin uh he was an allconference type of player he departs good news is again a couple of key players withdrew their name from the portal Christian Ellis tavien comes Taven comes to me stood out particularly in the A&M game in the season opener that I was watching a few months ago I also like what I saw from Demitri Johnson they’re high on this quarterback transfer from San Diego State uh Noah ainger up front Gabrielle Lopez Kyler Drake return uh they got some experience there they combin for 10 tackles for a loss last year they really like this Weber State kid off the edge I’m not even going to try to pronounce his last name but it’s okiki as his first name he’s from Weaver State they like what I saw from him in the spring so there’s stuff to work with when you got seven returning starters on defense and you got a guy that’s obviously well versed on the defensive side of the ball as a head coach and you got an upgrade as a head coach there’s some pieces to work with what’s concerning though is it’s the toughest schedule in the country among group of five teams again toughest schedule among group of five teams New Mexico most likely an underdog in every single game probably at least a touchdown Underdog in 11 of the 12 games Win total historically low you don’t see this every year one and a half in fact this is something you see normally maybe every three four years one and a half win total we are going to get back to that hint hint wink wink at the end of this podcast we’ll talk more New Mexico but let’s scroll up to the next team another team with a new head coach another team that really struggled Nevada the wolf pack worst team actually in the FBS statistically last season they were the wolf pack were negative 2.3 yards per play in the country dead last minus 142 yards per game Dead last outscored by 16 points per game that’s number 130 out of 133 teams last year they were minus 24 in sack margin minus twoo uh yards per carry margin ranked in the bottom most I mean every almost every single basic offensive defensive categories Nevada was in the bottom 10 so they were statistically the worst team in the country last year they let Ken Wilson and go after only two years but they were 2 and 10 both years that was argu the worst back-to-back years in the history of the school I mean this has got a pretty good you know history particularly you got a Hall of Fame coach for 30 plus years and Chris Sal Nevada’s now used to going 4 and 20 in back-to-back years new head coach Jeff choke comes from Texas he was a codc and the inside linebackers coach there the last few years he also was the Montana State head coach from 2016 to 2019 he had some success there particular particularly in his final season uh he you know his last team finish number four in the FCS went to the semifinals he’s the one that got that ball rolling there at Montana State as far as being one of the better FCS programs in the country here recently so I think it’s a good higher it’s an upgrade uh the new OC a little bit concerned Matt luck has leukemia so hopefully he recovers there we’ll get him some thoughts and prayers Mike Lynch is the inim OC the new DC comes over from Boise State returning Stars a little bit more to work with than a New Mexico they got 12 uh Brandon Le is back a quarterback but my goodness only threw two he was a starting quarterback for most of the Season only threw two touchdown passes not in a game not in a couple games we’re talking the entire season uh in fact Nevada quarterbacks the last two years 13 touchdown passes that’s it two years 20 interceptions 13 to2 ratio at quarterback the last two years pathetic yeah I mean you could argue that’s the worst by far the worst quarterback play in the entire country the last two years big reason why they’re 4- 20 uh they bring in chba p from Nebraska as of right now though py didn’t you know wasn’t completely healthy looks like Lewis has the inside track to being the starter I thought uh two of their better players on offense Jamal Bell uh he also played some he was that wide receiver he also played some running back he transferred to Baylor dvin Campbell transferred to South Carolina post spring he was one of their better players last year Kiki latu transferred to Washington Post spring so they lost some key guys post spring not a great look as far as the receiver position they really like Marshon Brown at wide receiver they like this West Virginia transfer Cortez Bram uh but they only had four they only have four returning receptions from the position from last year so not a lot of continuity at all at that position the positive side running backs got three former power four transfers in the mix sha dollars for Oregon he got injured in the spring game but it looks like he’ll be okay Ashton Hayes was not healthy last year he comes over from Cal uh Patrick Garo actually had a thousand- yard season at Boston College a few years go he comes in uh so we’ll see if dollars and Hayes are healthy this is a pretty decent running back room offensive line experience restarters back they were not good last year their best player is their left tackle is they world but again they were not good at all when it came to protecting or establishing the run last year on the defens side of the ball for Nevada ammani Johnson easily their best player he was at safety 100 tackles three interceptions he’s gone top pass rusher Marcel Walker Burgess tell me if you heard this transferred post spring not good he went to Ohio big pickup for the Bobcats there couple guys I do like that are returning I like the linebacker Drew Watts this guy he I kind of he came on my radar last year because Nevada had their spring game uh televised I come believe in Nevada spring game televised I watched it he stood out ended up being the third leading tackler on their team I like couple of transfers again from Power four programs Jackson leuk from Oregon he’s been there a couple years he hasn’t been healthy uh Henry e a heo from Cal he couldn’t play last year he’s a couple of names you need to know on defense that I think will be major contributors this year Texas transfer Kon Crawford comes over with Cho from uh Texas uh Ken Johnson from Wisconsin a defensive end they expect those two guys to be key contributors key starters for him on the defensive side of the ball special teams I don’t mention it often talk about it often but when you got an outlier I got to mention it Nevada loses their all-time kicker brand Brandon Talton 83 career field goals all most in the history of the Mountain West so they got to avoid the fill there as far as the schedule very difficult play 13 games 10 of those 13 games came come against both teams from last year they might only be favored Nevada in one game this year their win total is two and a half I think it’s a fair number uh Jeff Cho is expecting Nevada to have the most improved record in college football this year I don’t see it I think he’s got his work cut out for him even though I like the hire I think it’s an upgrade you got to give him a few years uh to to to get this team back to to flirting with ball eligibility speaking of flirting with ball eligibility this team I think can flirt with bow eligibility this year it’s Hawaii we’ll go out to the islands Timmy changen year three I think he’s doing a solid job here I was just reading in the Athlon preview magazine I like reading the SC uh the scouting reports from you know Anonymous coaches and sometimes they’re very forthright this Anonymous coach that they quoted in in the Athlon preview on Hawaii says they’re hearing that Timmy Chang might be in trouble might be feeling some heat I mean if that’s the case I don’t know what Hawaii’s doing uh because I I think he’s he’s doing a fine job in fact I thought each of the last two years the team played their best football at the end of the season so there was no give up uh I just watched them uh a couple days ago if you follow me on Twitter Brad power7 I just was tweeting you know a dramatic in their very last game I mean they had a walk-off winner uh to beat kado State colado state’s trying to win that game to get the B eligibility and Hawai beats him at the buzzer in the in the finale so I think Chang’s doing a fine job they do have two new coordinators Dennis Thurman comes over from Colorado if you know that name obviously played for you know NFL for the Cowboys a longtime defensive coordinator in the NFL and if you follow the Colorado uh reality TV show he was featured quite a bit last year uh Hawaii statistically wasn’t great last year 107 in yards per play margin number 94 in yards per game margin uh but they did sign their best recruiting class in six years and I think the major positive as far as coming into this season is it’s one of the most experienced teams in the country you’ve been hearing me the last three podcast talk about all these G5 teams losing a ton of guys Hawaii’s not one of them 18 returning starters shager entered his name in the portal in December uh for for a week or two and then he decided to withdraw he’s going to come back he had a solid season last year threw for over 3500 yards 264 ratio got to cut down on the interceptions rewatching Tate though I do find it interesting last four games of the Season just so happen to be Hawaii going three and one in those games they started running shager quite a bit he had 40 carries in those last four games they were using the quarterback run game quite a bit and that kind of open it up their entire offense had to because my my goodness uh their biggest problem last year was their inability to run the football they only averaged three yards per carry on the offensive line a lot 39 sacks so putting that you know that quarterback run game in the mix kind of open it up for him uh shager will be the starter but they do really like this new Su at quarterback Mike aliado from uh Bishop Gorman keep an eye on him they want to get him some snaps this year and get him ready to go he’s a quarterback of the future I love the Hawaii wide receiver room this year all the top guys are back Stephen McBride really flashed last year over a th yards for him 16.3 yards per catch nine touchdowns thought he’s the best player on the team he returns ashlock is another wide receiver very good possession receiver he flashed immediately if you go to their early games against vanderbelt and Stamford he was flashing um and they got some other guys uh you know they top five six guys all receiver all their back you don’t see that too much at the G5 level these days uh their top offensive lineman is back Luke Felix FY fua loo I will try with these Pol Polynesian names to to do my best little concern for me on the offense would be a new offensive line coach sometimes that takes a little bit of transition period there defensively again new DC guy stood out to me uh Peter Manu manuma uh manuma at safety he was their leading tackler I can’t miss him he’s number one he has that tro Troy palalo hair kind of plays like him very aggressive uh Logan Taylor another linebacker uh he probably was their best player last year but he got injured and out for the season in week three he led the team in tackles couple years ago was going to lead the team in tackles last year before he got hurt he returns jayen Smith who filled in for him and did a nice job he comes back they really like their pair of cornerbacks and Edwards and cam Stone uh so there’s some pieces to work with on that defense side of the ball and again when you got nine returning starters that’s a lot more experienced than a lot of these other teams are are coaches are dealing with in the portal era at the G5 level uh another unique thing to Hawaii this year typically Hawaii plays 13 games they get that exemption from the NCAA not going to be the case this year they’re only playing 12 games and actually of those 12 games two are against FCS schools so uh per the in the current Bowl rules they got to win seven games to get the ball eligibility I’m not sure they get the seven wins they got UCLA and Washington State plus the three top te top teams in the Mountain West I think they flirt with ball eligibility but to me I think five- seven is the most likely record and I got to tell you going back to the Top If five and seven gets Timmy changen fired I that’s a huge mistake for Hawaii I I don’t know who you’re going to get the coach there it’s a very tough job at this point let’s move it on up Utah State next in line their head coach Blake Anderson entering year four uh Team struggle he had obviously came in with a bang year one you know won the Mountain West went 11 and three uh teams just 12 and 14 the last two years uh statistically they’re a little bit better than six and seven there’re 57 in the country and yards per play margin average 65 and yards per game margin uh and it’s been a pretty stable program here you I mean Me growing Up Utah state was one of the worst programs in the country but my goodness last 13 years they made a bowl game uh you know Chucky Keaton kind of turned this entire program around here uh back you know 10 plus years ago and they’re constantly in bowl games we’ll see if they can make a Bowl this year on returning starters they’re experienced especially on offense I will say what was concerning to me as post spring top two quarterbacks top running back two defensive starters transferred post spring so originally I was going to be talking about Hawaii and Utah State being two of the most experienced teams in the country and and particularly Utah State uh but you know now they’re pretty much average returning production when you lose five starters post spring uh four of those five players ended up at Power four program so significant losses and from what uh Blake Anderson said those transfers were unexpected they weren’t expecting this to happen so that’s kind of a concern for Utah State now I can tell you two of the transfers the reason for him was Spencer petus from Iowa was named the starting quarterback in the spring that led to the top two quarterbacks from last year hitting the portal uh fais on a running back withdrew his name from the portal in the last 10 days that’s a big that’s big considering he ran for over 700 yards last year they had already Utah State lost their leading rusher Booth to the portal so getting him to withdraw with withdraw his name from the portals big phas on for Utah State uh the guy I really like on Utah State’s offense Royals at wide receiver over a, yards 15 yards for catch 15 touchdowns to me I think he’s a top 10 wide receiver at the group of five level in fact the Mountain West you’re going to hear me say I love the wide receivers in the Mountain West they got three or four the top G5 wide receivers in the country a lot of experience coming back at that position uh but unfortunately for Utah State they do lose their other guy that was second Team all Mountain West last year Terrell vaugh the positive is the offensive line returns all five starters the negative was not a good offensive line last year they allowed 44 sacks none of them if you look at the PFF grades are really just rewatching tap none of them stood out none of them graded out well none of them made the all Mountain West team so I mean yeah it’s great to have experience but if if none of the guys are any good how much better are they going to get in another year we’ll see uh defense was bad last year no no question about it allowed 433 yards per game over five yards for carry 35 points per game change was needed defensively and Blake Anderson made that change Nate dring is a new DC he’s come he comes over from New Mexico State uh he improved that unit the last two years don’t believe me go flip on the Auburn tape from last year Mexico State Auburn that defense was flying around the football the guy I really like that flyed around the football for Utah State last year does return safety Ike Larson I thought he was their best player on defense over 100 tackles four interceptions their leading tackler uh taisi uh he departs unfortunately speaking of being around the football he had 142 tackles last year their top defensive tackle and top pass rusher both gone the guy they like at defensive lend bla spires uh they like him and in limited action last year he’s very productive five sacks uh you look at the schedule for Utah State four tough games at USC they host Utah while get getting Utah at home uh that hasn’t happened very often the last decade at Boise State at Washington state to me that 5 and a half win total seems about right and if I was for I haven’t bet it yet but if I was forced bet I’d go under there let’s move it along to the next one we are going to go to San Jose State tell me if you’ve heard this already broken record another team with a new coach here in the Mountain West San Jose State Brent Brennan departs to Arizona after seven successful years there uh kind of a slow build uh he had at San Jose State included did include three bowl games in the last four years so he did a good job at s State major reason why he’s now the head coach at Arizona insert new head coach tell me if you heard this name before Ken neam matalo yeah that’s right neam matalo from Navy he’s the Navy head coach for 16 years didn’t finish good though three straight losing seasons and he was let go uh last year he was at UCLA he keep in mind if you’re not familiar you’re thinking oh he’s just an East Coast guy a military guy neam matalo started at Hawaii in fact he played quarterback back at Hawaii he also coached the UNLV so he is he’s got some West Coast ties here’s the most important thing I I think people are going to think well s State going to start running the option this year I got a d a very direct answer for for that no they’re not running the option this year neam matalo made an interesting hire he hired Craig stutzman from Texas State if you know him he worked under Nick rolovich for several years at Hawaii and Washington State they are totally opposite as far as the triple option it’s uh he he calls it the spread and Shred so uh more pass than run to say the least so no triple option here at San J State even when neam matalo is the head coach on the defensive side of the ball there is some continuity there he was able to keep Derek Odum he’s in his eth season as a defensive coordinator at San Jose State Defense very aggressive they force turnovers a lot of Havoc uh so that was a good retention there last year you look at the season uh slow start very tough schedule to start one and five they won six straight to close the regular season I thought they were the best team in the Mountain West at the end of the season uh statistically much better than their record 27th in the country in yards per play margin 44 in yards per game margin 44 in scoring margin I mean if you’re just looking at a basic power rating it’s probably sose State’s second best team in the last 11 years so off a pretty good season new coach lose a ton of production going to take a downturn this year number in fact returning production they rank number 131 only six returning starters uh the offense explosive last year especially down the stretch uh Cordo a quarterback I thought he was the best player in the Mountain West uh 20 touchdowns only four picks he just I mean I mean just looked and moved differently than anybody at least at the quarterback position in the Mountain West last year he’s gone the GU battling it out Jay Butterfield from Oregon a couple years ago he’s in the mix EMT Brown from Washington State Walker OT from New Mexico State those are the guys that are in the mix at quarterback as of right now they don’t know who there’s not a clear-cut Surefire starter coming out of spring top two backs Robinson and Conley they combine for over 2,000 rushing yards La last year not two years last year over 2,000 rushing yards 27 touchdowns they’re gone this was a very you know productive rushing offense averaging 5.6 yards per carry so a lot of questions there top player back on offense I would say is Nick Nash a converted uh from quarter from quarterback he played wide receiver last year productive over 700 yards eight touchdowns they also get Justin lockart back he was a good wide receiver for him a couple years ago he was out last year with injuries so that’s a positive not a positive is losing Sam Olsen you’re start you’re projected starting tight end he goes Arizona Post spring he was really impressive and he popping the bll tape he was he he really stood out in that one offensive line has hardly anybody back they they only have one starter so that’s a concern and not much to to work with returning production wise on offense same thing goes for the defense top guys on defense Parham Trey Smith jvon Cole all gone they transferred to places like Washington Arizona Texas Cole jvon Cole transferred to Texas Post spring uh he was by far their highest graded player on defense per PFF so major loss there the top returner up front uh is that soani to Toya kid uh Jordan Pard leads the linebackers schedule I don’t like uh this was a team that I faded early in the season win total markets I think they’re only favorite in four games they play the top three teams in the conference Boise Fresno and UNLV plus they play three power schools from last year at Washington State at Oregon State and a much improved Stanford team I think it’s a struggle to get the ball eligibility to say the least uh here for San Jose State in year one under neam matalo next up another team and another new coach we’re to San Diego State and I really like this hire to say the least new head and if you’d listen to the some of the other podcasts particularly the Mac podcast you know that I Love Shawn Lewis I really thought he got a raw deal at Colorado last year I thought he did an awesome job at Kent State got him to a couple bowl games in fact his last four years there he went 22 and 21 oh that’s Brad that’s that’s 22 and 21 that’s average that’s mediocre well I mean he leaves in Kent State after he leaves becomes the worst team in the country wins one game so I mean we’re talking one of the better offensive Minds in the game today uh he’s going to serve as the OC I think you’re going to play with a lot of tempo if you watch San Diego State football last decade plus they don’t play with Tempo now they’re going to go with Tempo I’m slowing it down a little bit that should give you a hint there’ll be some value I think when it comes to San dieo State and individual game totals just I cannot give you a better piece of advice San dieo State as far as last year like before we talk this year let’s talk last year they were not a good team at all it wasn’t a phony record they’re 118 in the country in yards per play margin 122 in yards per game margin it was San dieo State’s Worst season in 15 years lost 37 transfers not much as expected I’m a little bit more bullish though on this team I know that completely different offense lot of guys out terrible season last year I don’t know I like some of the replac placements I think that there’s an opportunity particularly on offense to be much better uh they lose jayen Maiden at quarterback I mean guy couldn’t throw consistently 10 touchdowns nine picks uh he was their leading rusher AJ Duffy comes in from Florida State he was their big get in the transfer portal another big get FR freshman quarterback Danny O’Neal was playing well in the spring he’s their highest rated quarterback recruit in the internet era he was originally committed to Colorado really good kid uh he’s he he has a chance to play right away he’s a true freshman uh speaking of transfers Mar Marquez Cooper reunites with Shawn Lewis he comes from Ball State he was originally before he transferred to Ball State he was at Kent State guy that’s got multiple thousand yard seasons in his back pocket already I already like their two other running backs Armstead and Keenan Christian that are coming back so there’s a lot of pieces to work with at running back tight end mark Redmond last year was one of their better players he’s off to Louisville good pickup for the cards there I do like another transfer I think Shan Lewis did a good job Michael Harrison from Colorado he flashed watch the tape I know he had a lot of other Playmakers on the outside but uh if I know a lot of you were watching Colorado football last year that tight end it wasn’t very productive at least early in the season before they you know demoted sha Lewis which I couldn’t believe uh the top return at wide receivers Mai Shaw they really like these transfers Lewis Brown from Colorado State uh jwn poke from West Virginia he was originally at Kent State again pieces to work with at wide receiver offensive Line’s got three starters back so there’s some stuff to be had here on offense uh they haven’t finished in the top 97 in scoring offense in the last six years I think they will this year defense that’s what San Diego State’s been known the last 10 plus years they couldn’t get pressure last year couldn’t stop the run uh four their six top six tacklers transferred the power four schools uh so the the there’s a lot to be desired on that side of the ball their new defensive coordinator Eric Schmidt uh he coached defensive line special teams the last four years with kayin debor if you’re on kayn dbor staff I think really highly of kayn De dbor when it comes to X’s and O’s uh so if you’ve been on his staff the last four years I think you’re a pretty good coach uh Schmidt was also a longtime defensive coordinator in North Dakota they’re going to run a 425 um as far as their top players coming back Cody moon at linebacker alo alo at defensive tackle defensive backs probably their most experienced position group they got three players that logged 200 plus snaps last year they’re back they really like this Northern Iowa Transfer Staley that comes in he he might be the leader on that back end of the defense even with some experience coming back I really like again s broken record like some of these pickups in the portal Kyle meret the linebacker from Central Michigan really good player uh they really also like this kid from uh Richmond and from the FCS Marlon Lewis on the defensive line so again I think even though what the not a lot coming back I like what they did in the portal in a short period of time schedule’s a little tough at least an underdog in six games Oregan State at Cal Washington State at Boise at UNLV but I think this team clearly tops the four- win total from last year so that’s San Diego State let’s talk a team that’s got some continuity as far as head coach Colorado state is your next team six straight losing seasons though for the program and if you follow them they spend as much as anyone in the Mountain West they are not getting a very good Roi on the money that they spend at Colorado State this is a very important year three for Jay norell they were improved last year went from three wins to five uh both the OC and the DC are entering year three so again a lot of continuity compared to the other staffs in this league last year they were a little bit better than the record 70 in yards per play margin 83 in yards per game margin 88 in scoring margin they should have flirted with balge but and they did they came down on the last play whe whether or not you know they made a bowl game they they Hawaii hit a 50 plus yard field goal on the final Play 5- Seven for Colorado state that should stick in that should stick and be uh used obviously as a motivating uh tool in the off season I would think let’s talk returning experience quarterback Bren Fowler Nicolosi returns he’s a gunslinger if you watch Colorado State football he’s got a cut down on the interceptions uh 16 of them last year that was among the highest in the entire country Norvell thinks he’ll be much improved this year I got to see it uh cuz again sloppiness last year maybe with some experience He he’ll clean that up one guy that really stood out to me rewatching the Hawaii game and some of the other games down the stretch this Justin Marshall kid uh played the last three games and ran for over 300 yards in just those last couple of games uh he’s one of the main reasons why they leading rusher from last year Shield hit the port portal post spring I Marshall their highest graded player on offense per PFF he’s got to become the Bell cow though uh because Colorado state had one of the worst rushing offenses in the country last year that was a negative positive was they had one of the better passing offenses in the country particularly when when you look at what they had Personnel wise wide receiver Tory Horton top 10 wide receiver in the country uh and I’m not talking just G5 I I’m talking regardless I mean as far as production this a guy that’s coming off back to back thousand yard seasons and to get a guy in this era uh to come back for another season after going back back to back a th yard and obviously Colorado State played in some more high uh visibility games last year I’m kind of stunned that he didn’t go to the portal they do lose I love their tight end last year Hulker I thought he was their second best player uh on offense their second best wide receiver transferred to Syracuse post spring they like the Cincinnati transfer Donovan hly a wide receiver so we’ll see they got some production to replace their you know they need another guy to take some pressure off of Tory hor otherwise team team defenses are just going to roll over their coverages uh and stack them up against Horton offensive line three starters coming back uh includ led by their right tackle Drew Moss Center Jacob Gardner let’s flip over the defense I thought the best player on Colorado State last year was not on offense but actually on defense you watched their games defensive end muhamad kamaro ended up getting drafted in the fifth round 13 sacks I mean in a few games he was completely unblockable a game wrecker uh they also lost a really good defensive tackle Grady Kelly to Florida State the positive is they return a safety and Jack Howell a linebacker Chase Wilson between the two of them they combined for 221 tackles last year also back safety Henry Blackburn he flashed to me he also was caught up in that cheap shot on Travis hunter in the Colorado game but uh he played well all season what didn’t play well statistically is you you got to be better on pass defense than allowing 71 half% completion percentage I mean that’s like you know playing on air got to be tighter especially when you had some pass rush with kamaro and you got some guys that are productive in the secondary I mean I was stunned to see that they allowed 71 a half% completions that’s got to be better if they want to take that next step where they have taken the next step is recruiting each of the last two classes have been their best finish in the last 20 years major upgrade there they got a wide receiver coming in Jordan Ross is’s their High highest rate of recruit in 25 years schedule seven home games they get Colorado on week three that’s CBS Saturday night not CBS Sports CBS national uh they should be favored in six games at least it’s Bowl gamer bust as far as I’m concerned for norval got to get to a bowl game for what they spend got a few more teams here as we roll through uh hopefully I can keep it under an hour here it’s going to be close on this one let’s talk Air Force a lot of continuity when it comes to coaching staff Troy Calhoun get this entering his 18th season at Air Force that is more than all the other Mountain West head coaches combined combined uh and he’s done obviously a great job they’ve won at least nine games in each of the last four full seasons when you throw out the 2020 Co season they OC Mike th 15th season here Brian Norris entering his third season as DC but he’s been on the staff the last seven years as much coaching continuity as any staff in the country country in fact I talked to Troy Calhoun last year in the off season and I just flat out because he’s very well respected and he’s got some NFL background back in the day and I just flat out asked him why why do you stay at Air Force uh they first said that’s a good question because I was pretty blunt with it uh and he said they he loves first off he loves the ability to recruit the type of kids that he can get in the Air Force he loves that and he also uh right away said that he I mean Colorado Springs is one of the best places to live so uh I don’t think he’s leaving I think this is uh he’s going to start here and retire here when it comes to his head coaching uh career so he’s doing a great job uh let’s talk last year’s team started 8-0 you thought they had a chance to get to a major bull bid then their quarterback Zack larer gets hurt and you know the season goes by the wayside they lose a couple games as a significant favorite against Army and Hawaii and they end up losing their last four games of the regular season do win the bowl game over good James Madison team but statistically they were legit 34 in yards per play margin 23 in yards per game margin 27 in scoring margin for Air Force plus 19 in sack margin plus 2.1 yards and yards per carry margin they controlled the lion scrimmage again the quarterback doesn’t get hurt it’s a it’s an easy 101 uh win team as far as this year though dead last in the country and returning production however I would say this generally speaking I didn’t downgrade Air Force as much as other teams at the bottom of the country in terms of returning production they got clear systems in place uh some of the top coaching continuity in the country and they’re typically not very experienced at the Academy so they usually replace Juniors and seniors with Juniors and seniors that have been in the program uh John bu bua is probably the favorite to start a quarterback he got some snaps last year top two rushers depart Michelle and eldrich really impressed me in the bowl game Carson’s got some he played some snaps though the running back uh uh he’s one of the better players coming back on offense he average 7.3 yards for carry their top wide receiver again you’re not getting a lot of catches but rosos averaged 31 yards per catch on his 12 catches last year had three touchdowns calber uh is another weapon on offense he averaged 7.7 yards per carry Kate Harris limited catches but he averaged 36 yards per catch I mean they got some Playmakers here if they can figure out the quarterback the concern obviously is zero starters back on the offensive line they had ARG the top offensive line in the Mountain West last year so I would say this is the biggest concern on my team but typically the service cies aren’t experienced at at offensive line they usually replace Juniors and seniors with other upper classman so we’ll see defense has been the the strength of the program uh along with the rushing offense the last five six years I last year 15 in the country and yards repl six and Total Defense 12 in scoring defense uh the kid that really impressed me rewatching tape this Bo riter kid unbelievable 19 and a half tackles for loss uh number eight last year uh that was his number I just I sometimes as I get older I’m all numbers I I don’t remember names very well but my goodness number eight on tape really flash for them he departs their safety Trey Taylor actually got drafted that’s not good Alex mock they’re leading tackler gone second best pass rusher PJ Ramsay’s gone so you know obviously your best players are gone they’re not a lot to work with they like this Jack Curtis kid as at defensive end as a replacement for riter uh they do have an experienced defensive tackle the Payton kid’s really good both cornerbacks return they both have great length so there’s a few guys back we’ll see uh you know typically speaking I I feel like they’re a little bit more confident than the market the market was very low in fact it opened 5 and a half on Air Force win total uh too low if you catch the hint there that was too low uh it got adjusted but uh let’s just say I was involved on that uh schedule not overly difficult no Boise State no UNLV Fresno and Oregon State are at home I think they’re favored in as many as seven games they’re not going to win nine but they’re going back to a bowl game Air Force this year Wyoming’s next up another team with a new coach Craig B departs 10 successful Seasons he’s gone last year’s nine wins was the most they had in a season here since 1996 uh familiar it as far as the new head coach Jay saille he was a DC at Wyoming the last four years the new DC this year is Aaron bow Craig B’s son he is a firsttime DC so we’ll see how that works out the new ocj Johnson he’s going to feature a little bit more spread and a little bit more Tempo but uh I don’t think it’s a dramatic change they’re just going to be a little bit more of tempo and a little more more passing last year you know statistically they weren’t as good as nine wins they’re 4- one in close games plus 11 in turnovers that that’s usually screams regression if you rewatch the Texas Tech and half State games they were very fortunate Texas Tech kicker missed three field goals uh they blocked an appstate field goal and returned it back uh for a touchdown in a very close game uh you look at uh statistically I mean they were out gained by 31 yards per game last year and somehow won nine games so not overly impressive there I expect some regression returning starters Peasley at quarterback’s gone he was actually good last I didn’t see this coming from him 20 touchdowns only five interceptions over 400 yards on the ground he graded out very well as far as the guy that’s going to replace him uh soda easy for me to say Evan is his first name but he’s going to wear number 17 and if you know Wyoming quarterback 17 Josh Allen he’s going to look like Josh Allen at least physically 6’5 245 pounds is Evan uh they’re pretty high on him we’ll see uh he did uh as far as the receiving core a lot of the guys are gone uh Wyatt wheelen I like their tight end Welch was pretty good they had a deep threat and Sante who had great speed they’re all gone but they think they upgraded their wide receiver room through the portal they like their tight end John Michael Gillan Borg they expect him to be a first or second Team all Mountain West type of player so that they like their receiving room a big positive is Way’s back and running back he had nearly a th000 yards last year they like this North Carolina transfer Running Back DJ Jones he stood out in the spring four starters back on the offensive line uh guard Jack Walsh is probably their best player up front uh the concern though is a little bit of the tackle positions Frank crumb’s gone the defensive line dominated the offens line during the spring so we’ll see what happens there speaking of the defense leading tackler Houston Gibbs he’s gone but I I still think this is one of the better defenses in the conference they’re led up front uh the defense tackle Jordan beri Sebastian harsh productive players they did lose Gavin to USC post spring that wasn’t good white Eckler’s back in the secondary so there’s some pieces here last year I mentioned some of them games at home they went seven at home last year beat app State beat Texas Tech Fresno State was ranked in the top 25 they beat them they’re going to be tested again at home this year they got home games against BYU Air Force Boise State even with the coaching change you know win total six and a half I haven’t bet it yet I mean I I’d be stunned if they didn’t make a bowl game so uh I I I think six and a half sounds about right as far as that win total so a minimum it’s got to be six and six this year back in a bowl game they’re not going to match nine wins though three more teams here let’s go to UNLV who had a new coach last year and had a historical season I thought Barry odm did a phenomenal job with UNLV last year most wins for UNLV in a season since 1984 and no doubt I mean if you’re doing a power rating it was their best team since then both coordinators are back including Brennan Maran he’s a hot name he’s got that catchy go go offense I will say despite nine wins UNL was outgained on the season and had a negative yards per playay margin defense wasn’t good even though the offense was that’s not good for the upcoming season let’s talk the upcoming season 12 starters back they welcome in 20 transfers uh they got the best transfer class in my opinion in the Mountain West uh they got 11 power conference transfer kids uh so this going to be a very talented roster I would say though the most important transfers are a pair of CS transfers at quarterback that’s going to ultimately determine how far this team goes this year they lose quarterback Jaden mava to USC he was the you know Mountain West Freshman of the year last year got got be honest I wasn’t that big a big fan of him last year I mean I watch a lot of unlb football I mean some of the most inopportune mistakes at the at the worst times consistently multiple games I know he’s a young player but I think they’ll be okay and why do I think they’re going to be okay cuz I like these two FCS quarterbacks Haj Malik Williams from Campbell Matthew sluka from Holy Cross they’re both dual threat Williams is a better passer sluka is a better Runner both have a ton of experience multiple year starters at the FCS level in fact if I was stack ranking top quarterbacks at the FCS both of them would have been top 10 so two capable guys sluka wasn’t there in the spring Malik Williams looked pretty good uh as far as the spring game so I think they’ll be okay at quarterback wide receiver really good wide receiver Ricky White should be he comes from Michigan State he’s good enough to still be at Michigan State and he’d be an all big 10 receiver at Michigan State that’s how good he is he was the third highest graded wide receiver in the country last year he’s had multiple Seasons here of really good production for almost 1500 yards last year another kid I really like this Jacob De Jesus’s kid he’s only 57 165 if you watched last year’s spring game you could see hey this is going to be the name to know as far as a kid coming out of nowhere very quality slot receiver they got out of the Joo ranks last year he had no offers from anybody and they found him he’s also probably one of the most productive returned men in all the college football both Punt and kick so I really like that kid top three of the top four rushers are gone but the guy that the best guy stayed in my opinion Jaden Thomas scored 12 touchdowns as a true freshman last year uh so he’s back speaking of true freshman this Greg barell Kid Flash in the spring game uh I think he’s going to play quite a bit they got an NC State transfer Michael Allen he’ll play keep in mind a lot of the formations in Marian’s offense and the go go has two running backs lined up in unique formations their tight end is back he had a really key I was rewatching the Air Force game he had an 84 yard reception totally changed that game Air Force was dominating they come out of the second half he gets this big reception and you know unov makes comeback and wins a big road game offensive line three starters back led by the right tackle tiger Shanks probably one of the better offensive lineman in the Mountain West let’s flip to the defense side of the ball they were wor down at the stretch allowed in the last four games 39 points per game 500 yards per game on the season they allowed 6.3 yards per play that was 115 in the country the positive is they did force a lot of turnovers 27 of them last year that was as many as anybody in the country on the positive Jackson Woodard the linebacker he had over 100 tackles last year he’s back they really like Cameron Oliver nice size he’s 61 he had five interceptions I thought he really stood out in the bowl game against Kansas uh but uh really outside of Oliver and they got another kid coming back in Baldwin you would he thought they had a weakness in the secondary because what they do they went out and brought in six transfers in the secondary uh all of them from Power four conference schools led by Tony Grimes so a former five-star kid uh so they really want to show up that secondary to say the least I think they’re a little thin at defensive line after losing guys like Darius Johnson so we’ll see if they they can get maybe a guy or two in the portal this summer here’s the problem with UNLV I actually think they’re better than last year’s team as far as I’m looking at the returning production and the talent level but it’s the most difficult schedule probably in the history of unv football four power Conference teams uh Plus Fresno State plus Boise State the two best teams in the Mountain West again I think they might be better than last year but they’re not going to get the nine wins unov this year let’s talk one of those two best teams we got two left Fresno State is my number two team in the Mountain West Jeff Tedford back from his second Health scare in the last four years so this this is probably my biggest concern I’ll just lead uh I won’t bury the lead how healthy is he because he missed the bowl game uh he can coach obviously I mean he’s 9 and3 in his career in bowl games they got the same coordinator some there’s some continuity there some regression concerns 5- one Fresno State was in close games last year statistically they weren’t a nine- win caliber team very average you look at yards per play margin 56 in the country 60th in the country in yards per game margin to me that screams like a seven and a half win team not a nine- win team you look at the returning production Mikey keen’s back at quarterback I thought his best game was in the bowl I think he started like 13 for 13 in that game he’s finally healthy he was you know wasn’t 100% down the stretch good quarterback I would say I’m thinking in top of my head yeah I would say Mikey Keane’s probably the best quarterback coming back in the Mountain West this year shate running back’s one of the better running backs in the Mountain West he’s in fact he’s one of the more underrated running backs in all a group of five they lose their top wide receiver Fresno State does but Moss is back I like this Josiah Freeman kid on tape he impressed kid really impressed on tape rewatching last year’s game their tight end Trey Watson he’s number 84 big loss in the transfer portal he’s at Texas A&M big pickup for the aies he’s a originally going to Washington four starters are back on the offensive line uh MOS vava easy for me to say MOS vavo at right guards probably their best player there uh on defense probably three of their better players Carlton Johnson Maurice Norris lvll Bailey all gone uh as far as production all those guys are gone they do return their top two tacklers uh they really like this defensive end dvo Bridges defensive tackle Jacob Holmes rewatching a few games they stood out to me so I think they’ll be okay up front defense really kind of wore down like last year they allowed 150 yards for game more in conference than non-conference that’ll be interesting to see speaking of interesting things to see they bring in a transfer who in some circles was the number one high school player in the country a few years ago he’s a defensive end former five-star recruit Cory Foreman comes in from USC been a total bust so far in his career I’m just wondering new scenery fresh start dropping down in weight class uh as far as comp competition does he finally flash because again coming out of high school some uh recruiting Services had him as the number one player forget number one defensive end defensive lineman number one overall player in the country in some circles Big pickup so we’ll see as far as the schedule they open at Michigan Fresno does close at UCLA they’re probably in the middle 10 games probably favoring an eight or nine of them so they’re going to be right in the mix as far as making it the Mountain West championship game let’s talk the top team in the Mountain West I’m not going to bury the lead I think it’s a top team as far as the power rating goes and all of G5 it is the Boise State Broncos last year better than their record one and four in games decided by seven points or less that that says they were better than eight and six their Fresno State Colorado State loss is very misleading I mean not to to open up a a wound again but man the Fresno State game rewatching that my goodness so many I mean they had five or six game-changing plays went against them in that one uh we had a best bet on Boise on this on this podcast and I cannot believe that didn’t get home remarkably unlucky bad break there speaking of unlucky bad breaks kado State I mean lost on a hill Mary there so that screams positive for this year and statistically I mean they were in the top 50 in the country yards per play margin yards per game margin scoring margin plus 20 and Sack margin when you looked at the last three games of the regular season with Spencer Danielson as the interim coach uh that was three of their best performances of the Season big reason why he got promoted to the permanent position new OC dirt cutter ton of experience he was the OC here two years ago saved their season taking over the play calling he’s taking over the play calling here they had a late guy uh ended up leaving uh I believe to Mi Missouri was it yeah I think it was Missouri uh but dirt cutter has been a head coach here at Boise Arizona State and the pros he’s been a longtime offense coordinator really experienced guy loves Boise great hire speaking of great hirers I like I like Tyler Tyler Stockton the new co uh DC if you’re familiar with it he’s from Ball State I loved what he did with ball State’s defense shander uh shander I should say uh is also back at at DC he was on the staff last year you look at the returning experience they have it 15 returning starters they also signed the top recruiting class in the Mountain West for the 13th time in the last 14 years so lot of good things here with Boise State as far as the coaching staff which I think upgraded after they fired Andy aalos I think there was some locker room issues there so upgraded coaching staff upgraded experience upgrading Talent level it’s a lot of good things let’s talk specifics they do lose their quarterback ton green he he went to Arkansas gotta tell you looked pretty good in Arkansas in the spring game this year madson’s back quarterback he got plenty of snaps last year had 61% completion percentage 93 ratio he did sit out the spring with knee injury bigger news is they welcome a former five-star High School recruit Malachi Nelson from USC he’s expected to be the starter at some point this year I don’t know if he opens the season the starter we’ll see but he he’ll he’s going to start some games this year Ashton Jenny a running back might not have been a five star coming out of high school he’s he plays like a five star he’s the best group of five player regardless of position in the country 1,800 uh yards as far as rushing and receiving last year 19 touchdowns highest graded running back in the country per PFF helani is gone he gives him a little bit of rest George helani was the number two back they need to find another back behind jenty to to give him some rest I think it’s going to be this dubar kid he ran well last year when he got limited snaps look good in the spring game they like this true freshman gains so I think it’ll be fine at running back they were a very Rush heavy offense when Danielson took over his the the interim and permanent coach 262 yards per game The Last uh four games it’s got to be a little bit more balanced I think they will be this year now on the surface you’re going to say how I mean they lost all their top receivers I think they’ll be better uh this Prince uh strong kid flashed on tape he average 26 yards per catch they get cables back from injury missed all last season Chris Marshall you might be familiar with the name the number one jle player in the country major Talent was he former five star but also major off field issues he was dismissed from Texas A&M and Old Miss this is his last chance if and it’s it’s a big F if he can stay out of trouble he should be an instant impact I mean you’re talking about the possibility for Boise State’s offense to have a f a former five-star quarterback throwing to a former five-star wide receiver and arguably he do not a five star coming out of high school but jenty might be the best group of five player in the entire country at running back uh that’s a very talented offense at this level uh offensive Line’s got three starters back their left tackle it’s probably their best player uh Cutters also extremely high on the wide receiver Austin Bolt and they really like their tight end Lauder so very talented offense if they can put it together defense actually is the more proven commodity 12 of their top 14 tacklers are back defense did slip a little last year compared to at least what they were in 21 and 22 a couple guy I mean they got some Talent on this side of the ball too guys that popped on tape number 91 a defensive end that hassanin kid 12 a half sacks at linebacker number 10 Andrew Simpson 15 tackles for loss get both those guys are first team allconference players uh they bring in a couple of good transfers this Woodard kid from Ball State I think he could start a defensive end Irby from Cal looks like he’s going to be a starter at quarterback filling him for Jaylen Clark who was dismissed from the team the guy that really got a lot of uh his name kept popping up during the Spring the safety tie Benfield they really high on so a lot to work with on defense to say the least and with a couple of decent coordinators special teams As Good As It Gets dma a kicker 80 career field goals he’s going to set the all-time record if he stays healthy this year 80 career field goals with an 89% accuracy that’s As Good As It Gets in the country and speaking of that James Ferguson Reynolds at punter averaged 49.7 yards per punt 49.7 average per punt last year really good I I mean very high on this team they’re they’re not as this isn’t a Kell Moore Chris Peterson Boise State team but it does feel like what Brian harson had there and I mean he did everyone remembers what he what he you know the lack of success at Auburn but harson was successful at Boise State I mean won at least nine games all six years um schedule I think works out for Boise State they’re favoring 11 of their 12 games Oregon being the exception there is no Fresno State they get Washington State and Oregon State at home uh I love this team uh I probably would have given this out as the win total best bet but it’s pretty pricey if you’re okay would laneus 175 – 180 uh on an 8 and 1 half win total be my guess I like the over so that’s kind of a little bit of a bonus bet there I I think this team is really legit I don’t know if they’re you know the true clear-cut favorite as far as to get to the playoff because Liberty’s got a cakewalk schedule and could go undefeated and memphis’s schedule is probably a little bit less difficult than Boise but uh I I I think they’re really going to make a run to to get to that that first playoff bid uh as far as the top uh group of five conference champ Boise State easily the favorite in this league let’s get to the best bet though right at an hour here so I didn’t go too long we’re going back though to the bottom of the league and you’re going to think Brad we’re GNA go oh you just made a great case for Boise State why would you want to mess with New Mexico I’m G tell you why I’m going to mess with New Mexico it’s an historic win total in the wrong way it’s one and a half again a one and a half win total of something and I’ve been betting these now for 10 plus years that they’ve actually put them out for uh all the all 130 plus teams and I I’ve only seen it a couple times and usually when you get a one and a half win total it screams hey this is by far the worst team in the country New Mexico is not by far the worst team in the country in fact I think there’s five six teams worse than them now the negative is this why is it a one and a half win total it’s because they’ve had the toughest schedule in the country among group of five teams they’re going to be an underdog in every game this year probably a touchdown Underdog in 11 of the 12 games I even got him a double digit Underdog against an FCS team in Montana state in the opener with that being said that doesn’t mean that they’re going to win Zer over one games if you put this how you do win totals folks if you have a projected point spread on each individual game and give them you know a 20% chance to win that game a 10% chance to win that game a 40% chance to win that game you put that into the schedule plug all that in I get two and a half as far as a season win total I think somehow someway a very good coach in bronos men in Hall gets this New Mexico team to two wins they won four last year and we actually statistically better than 4- eight that was a team that probably flirts with ball eligibility last year I know they lost a lot but they still got a lot coming back on defense I they got a playmaker a quarterback and they upgraded at head coach we’re going over the win total over one and a half wins for New Mexico best price you can find right now is oneus 155 so we are laying some juice here um 160s available some 170s in the market let’s call it 160 cuz you got one lower than that a few higher uh we’ll call over one and a half wins New Mexico minus 160 you’re going to say Brad why are we doing this well a teaching moment I will say at the opposite ends of the spectrum as far as the win totals because you really see a huge Spectrum when it comes to college football like sometimes you see 10 and a half I’ve seen 11 and a half win total on a 12 game uh schedule not seeing it this year 10 and a half is the highest but at at the Polar Opposites the one and a halfs the twos the two and a halfs and the 10 and halfs 11 11 and halfs at the high end every half win means more typically you’re looking at a half win meaning 70 cents on an average win total in college football but at the lowest of lows and the highest of highs man when there’s not much uh you know Poss not much variance possible a half win means probably closer 100 so I’m not afraid of laying the minus 160 juice here on a team that’ll probably be an underdog in all 12 games we are going to go with over one and a half wins on New Mexico your best bet I haven’t forgot about the Mac we’ll probably double back at some point and give out two Best Bets uh in a future podcast and speaking of that future podcast next week we’re going to tackle the sun Bel I think there’s a lot of value and sunb win total so I’ll probably mentioned quite a few bets that I made as far as the season win totals there we’ll have a best bet two there keep in mind with a New Mexico over 1 and A2 TI it hopefully in your pocket let’s go ahead and get yourself to the window for Todd Ferman and pay Insider I’m merely Brad Powers filling in for the guys this week we’ll talk to you next week as we talk some about football take care enjoy your week we hope you enjoyed listening to this episode of bet the board make sure you follow Todd in pain on X Todd is at Todd Ferman that’s to d f h r m a n and pain is at pain Insider as p a y n i ns d r don’t forget our Weekly Newsletter comes with an additional best bet have that delivered to your inbox by clicking the link at top the podcast show notes and most importantly subscribe and download bet the board we’re on Apple Spotify Amazon wondery YouTube Google podcasts and all your other major platforms [Music]