Tyler Tamboline (ToeTagginTambo) breaks down the 2024 RBC Canadian Open DraftKings PGA slate from a first look perspective. He looks at pricing and gives his first thoughts on how to approach the slate.
#PGADFS #DraftKings #FanDuel #PGA #DFS #FantasySports #PGAPicks #SHIPIT #RBCCanadianOpen
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all systems go clear for lift up [Music] what’s up everyone Tyler champoline here AKA toag and Tambo back for another edition of the PGA show here on the shipet nation YouTube station we got the first look as usual got a special guest today bringing my guy Alex bckl from fdn back here with me I’ll bring him in here in a minute but lots to talk about today lots to get to a little bit somber off the top we’ll get into the good stuff we’ll break it all down it’s the Canadian open I’m excited I’ll hit on some of the chat I see later there’s a little funny story in there actually had a couple people reach out today I’ll talk more on that in a minute but before we get into it want to say happy Memorial Day to everybody out there thank you to all those who serve who have served who support someone who does that Alex I’ll bring you in man Memorial Day here and then we’ll get into some stuff and break it all down this week for the RBC Canadian open how you doing my friend doing very well yeah happy Memorial Day to everybody I I will say I think the the tribute during the round yesterday the helicopters flying over morem morial day and having that like dual meeting with the with the moment of silence for Grayson that was a pretty beautiful moment yeah definitely love to see that a lot of great emotion poured out from a lot of the golfers out there our guy Ren has it up there you know gota we be remissed we didn’t just talk about this quickly off top I know you have a a personal story you can share and we’ll talk on that in a second but just want to say I I did post it out there yesterday obviously very sad news in the golf world this week people playing DFS Golf and betting Golf and whatever know a lot more about Grayson Murray than the general public but one thing I will say just you know and then I’ll kick it to you on it just the setup of like I super sad everyone knows this you know some of his history the backstory all of that but I think one thing gets said a lot myself included even said it and it’s true and meaningful and everything but I think there’s a part that’s missing so I did want to touch on that just off the top just because you know you know say you never know what’s going on with somebody out there and in that in this case people had a bit of a clue obviously Grayson had mentioned things in the past with mental health but I do just want to say as obvious as that is you know whether it’s a loved one a friend somebody close myself whoever reach out to anyone it’s so you know a good friend said this it’s not okay to not be okay so reach out if you need somebody but I will say that the second part to that is that doesn’t get talked about enough in my opinion is that you never know when something can change on a dime like in this economy in this world you could someone can lose a loved one have a relationship go arai you know lose a job debts finances things can pile up in a hurry and that can come out of nowhere so it’s not not just someone you’re not sure of how what they’re going through and how it’s going somebody that you think is fine and seems fine and has always been fine can also change on a dime so always be kind to one another reach out to people as you can always say good things and just be there and support people man be a good person that’s something you can control Alex I’ll kick it over to you any thoughts you have on it man and just uh you know I know you you’ve mentioned you played with gra Grayson before so let you talk on it for a minute man before we get into the show yeah to be honest like I I was thinking about whether we wanted to even cover anything with Grayson on the Prov Pro Show and then I saw how much our subscribers over at ftn in the PGA chat just seemed to benefit from talking through this like nobody knows how to process this kind of thing right and so once I saw that it’s like okay yeah we’re definitely going to cover it Justin actually knew Grayson pretty well I I didn’t know him I played in events with him um I I will say like I I want to save most of the stories for the Prov Pro show but what I will say is my my memories of Grayson will will not be what I saw on TV it’ll be the first time I saw him warming up on the Range I didn’t know who it was I didn’t know wow that’s Grayson Murray he’s going to be on tour in 10 years I just knew who is this dude striping these long irons just dead straight towering ball flight making a different sound than everybody else it was like my second or third event as a pro at the time so it was pretty intimidating to see and then in the uh in the last US Open sectional qualifier that I played Grayson Murray was The Medalist and so it it kind of felt you know full circle for me seeing him uh at the top of that leaderboard that I was actually playing in was really cool because he was the guy that I saw eight years ago or whatever warming up and just thought like that that dude seems a lot better than I am I don’t I don’t know what to do with this information um but then also like being able to see him win this year was was really cool as well so man it’s tragic but if there is a silver lining at least he was able to turn his life around in the last few years the way had and and he made like an enormous positive impact on people in the last few years so at the very least at least he was able to do that yeah thought and prayers out with Grayson Murray obviously wanted to cover that just a little bit off the top like you said a lot of people in our Golf World talking about it but I think you know Pros people that are close to him Peter milady’s story and the tears that he shed about it playing that last round with him after he withdrew after believe he missed like a four- foot and a six-footer got himself out of contention on the cut line skipped the last two holes malady had apparently told people you know keep an eye on him just you go check on him and then sure enough he ends up taking his own life like you said tragic situation many have spoke on it but move on to this week just wanted to say that and obviously thoughts out with him his family but back to the golf for this week we’ve got the RBC Canadian open had a pretty big week over at shiping nation was a lot of fun there but I want to hit on this one first because everybody asked me and they’re talking about the uh the Tambo open this week it’s like if somebody lives in Boston and there’s a tournament this week in Kentucky and people like hey you going to the tournament man it’s your turn it’s in USA it’s like yes it’s the Canadian open check out a map people like it’s a big country so it’s not I will not be at the event this week it’s a two and a half hour flight and then a you know probably hour and a half drive or something to get to it so I will not be there but still excited for it we obviously love this event the last couple of years have actually been overshadowed a little bit right we had the launch of Liv we had the piff agreement deal thing last year where they were talking about that so the last couple of years there’s been these big meetings and sort of things taking away from this event so certainly excited for it this year uh most excited because also great day for me Alex great day for members over at chipet Nation but uh you know I’ve been trying so hard to get back into this thing this is just part of that grind that goes with anything like this in life but shout out to our Guy Lee aldri he he said this is just a quick note from our Discord he came out on Monday and said good day all won’t you won’t notice this much but basically I’ll just get through it quickly said you know I’m evolving the course fit rankings to make them stronger more accurate thinking of adding some new ingredients we always joke about it’s the secret sauce and the you know Colonel Sanders with his special spices and so he said he says this week I’ve stumbled upon what I believe to be the best Improvement yet I’m very excited to see how this new herb improves the secret sauce and I actually went back to him in the chat and said um I love that you’re doing this I’m a little interested but the thing’s been dialed in already you guys have gpp scores over at ftn this has kind of been our sort of thing that way over at chipet Nation I said uh well we’ll see how it goes well sure enough it was all my best course fit lineups that ended up taking down these tickets I ended up getting three almost five I bubbled the uh fifth seat there I came in sixth in the top five got a seat I came in third as well so I got one in that one and then in another one I came second where it was win or take basically win or take all so almost five but I will be happy with three uh built this lineup pretty much right off those course fit rankings Davis Riley of course number one he’s had AE batia number one for his win he had Taylor pendrith number number two for his win throughout the swing season there was a bunch of events where we had it so um you know just a great week lots of members came out and got the job done too lots of winning tickets I seen $18 into 6,300 on a Riley ticket I’m sure you guys saw Lots as well how how was your week man what was your thoughts on the event and then we’ll hop in and start discussing RBC Canadian open yeah it’s it’s funny we have we have so many like overlapping subscribers now who are both at shipit and ftn so we were actually talking about that that Riley call from Lee that was that was pretty cool and his part we had a lot of success this week as well shout out to one of our subscribers ham Hawk he got himself a fantasy Golf World Championship seat as well uh I had a big round four made about you know $4,000 won a ticket for for I think a baseball contest so my NFL baseball season apparently is underway now just because of round four Showdown but yeah it’s been it’s been an awesome season we’re we’re having a lot of fun yeah saw the crossover logos too we love to see that we got a lot of crossover we have a partnership as well so just awesome to be with you guys and just see some of that member crossover I got to say this we always shout out the first guy in to the chat first guy or girl we’re trying to up the you know what’s the joke around there with lws the female viewership we’re try to get that up but shout out to Jordan first in today with the triple rocket ship Express I will say this speaking of first in he actually won the first fgwc seat of the Season he won it in the $ five do to kickoff the year so he’s got to be excited he’s waited all year to get all season to get to this point I had to wait till the last minute to get mine and others and shout out to ham hack like you said I actually got to meet him it was a third or a fif I think it was a third place maybe a fifth place finish a couple years ago in Memphis at the fantasy Golf World Championship so good for him and obviously since then he’s won the Millie maker with NASCAR just an awesome awesome dude so congrats to him nice to see again lots of seats flying around on the last weekend as everybody’s trying to get in see if I just saw anything else there shout out to Shan said the course fit rankings continue to print this will be out shortly I got my rep is still on vacation but he’s still handling these things for me so we will have the uh shipit Nation lisst League out here shortly I’ll post that out on my ex account when we do congrats to Nick took down a heavy irons the the 4747 $ 4,747 buyin coming up for the memorial is an awesome tournament right it’s 230 something people I believe and it’s like the best payout structure you’ll find outside you Millie maker but with a better payout structure and not a Millie up top so definitely love to see that so um just lots of good stuff going on heading into this week now Alex we have a bit of a a new it’s a renovations to the course we haven’t seen it since 2019 I know you had some stuff there from before maybe well you’re going through just what you know about this course or maybe what you know and and expect this week from this course I’ll pull up our guy epac golf I just want to show off something that he put out here today on X but go ahead you could start it off just anything you do know about the course from past present or what you’re expecting this week coming up yeah I can tell you that our course fit model from 2019 only was huge on around theen play basically short game was by far the most predictive aspect of the game it’s what translated the most to success and and you and I talked about a little bit like you you don’t expect that sort of thing on a birdie course 22 under one now r w at 22 under running away from everybody yeah but basically you know you think of around the green play as as what’s needed when it’s difficult and guys need it to save par but then there are events like kaaloa like Craig Ranch where short game actually ends up being really predictive in terms of who’s going to make birdies on those short par fours on the par fives things of that nature so it seems like we’ve got one of those again this year yeah I think that’s going to be the case I mean we’ll look at it here in a second I’m not going to go through the whole thing I want you guys to check it out though but shout out friend Eric Patterson epat golf on X go follow him Canadian dude great guy says enjoy sickos here’s a here here’s a whole by hole look using GPS screenshots that show the pre-renovation and the post I mean I’m going to have to check this out tonight I’ll be honest I’m not getting to this one lately I won’t post the you know thanks for coming out sorry but I’m not reading all that [ __ ] but this is going to be good stuff I just need the time to get to it I haven’t got to yet but I do always like to skip ahead as most do with these threads so just a note at the bottom I thought this was really interesting he put just his favorite com courses Oakdale St George’s TBC River Highland Sedgefield you gave a couple more ideas as well that I think will still hold true because when you go to his first key takeaways point it says par 3es I are by far the toughest holes in the course the changes are fantastic but more for member play than to test the PGA Tour pros and he thinks the 2019 data will still hold that’s in his opinion can certainly bomb it as long and straight plays anywhere but short hitters have a chance to contend shipping around these small greens will be trickier this year than in 2019 which would make it that much more important right being able to have that skill set in the bag you can talk more on that Alex and then most of the trouble off the t is around 290 to 300 so if you’ve got that carry distance of 300 plus Rory m and many others in this field you can uh you can talk about that too anything here that you see just from his key takeaways that would stand out to you and I think the around the green stuff just hits even even harder at this point yeah I I really like that last one uh the note that most of the troubles 290 to 300 because we don’t see a ton of signal here on driving distance now both distance and accuracy were actually slightly uh less predictive than usual back in 2019 but remember that’s an un average thing so you can still get those like tier breaks where you might be longer than most but if you can’t carry at 300 plus it doesn’t really help you but if you can carry it 320 like Rory now all of a sudden you get that full benefit so it it can be true that that extra distance is super helpful yeah and we’ll talk on that when we get to the tiers in a minute but I do think uh I’m gonna have another Conversation Piece when we get to Rory and I had it last week about Scotty remember Scotty has to win to be up top they say I know people will still get on me about oh but he came T2 go at the scoring in the math Scotty could have came 10th and would have still scored like 91 points it’s just a separation of those 13 points or whatever from 104 down to that or 103 down to 90 he still would have crushed it’s not how it works it’s a different type of game you have to understand it from that level I think everyone knows it but it’s going to be similar conversation when we get to Rory this week uh real quick I’ll just share this just a bunch of those that had big weeks that we did post out or see golfing goof put out here big week 33 doesn’t matter your bank roll right and like you said whether it’s shiping Nation ftn combining the two of them together whatever you might do we’re not US versus the world you can get other access other data sites other whatever you want to use it’s just to show it off we’ll not we had a huge NASCAR week as well which is nice because I know other sites they do charge additional for just NASCAR only packages we include it with our all access membership and Rum Runners one over 20k off of 80 bucks uh founding family member shout out to Chad goes by tavary 01 he had the $6,000 F frwc seat and then won 14k uh in cash as well so a big week for him scooter McGavin was that 18 to 6,300 in there 100 you know uh you look here round four two grand you said you won almost four grand Alex big week for you uh Chris had his first ever gpp takedown Shi have 6K in the birdie so love to see that just lots of good stuff going on over at the nation skip the the heavy marketing stuff today but if you guys do want to get in it’s very simple go to the site go to join the nation I think right now the best thing to do is just get in on the PGA action like you get in now having a lot of great success in those streets and then if you want to upgrade you can always PR rate and get it change later you don’t lose anything on that so $39 gets you in and gets you everything you see here the whole breakdown for Showdown all the stuff the stone another great tool that we have that’s not out there that you’ll you won’t see at every other site the course fit rankings that we already talked about that had a huge week and then you can get it on the action that way you’ll get this event the memorial the US Open like now is a really good time to join this works out to just over a dollar a day you want about $5 per event or around 24 bucks a month less than a dollar a day just join the annual get in and do that now and then if you want all access just let me know or get in there but definitely make sure you get into the Discord all right let’s get to it Alex here let’s go to the pricing the only thing I know is Rory up top because I saw that already and then I started seeing other names but give me your take on this real quick because the other thing that I always just quickly cheat to is that it is is there there is there a 5k range or isn’t there I think that’s important at this point of the Season we’re not going to go you know see all the names are there but just to pull it up quickly and say this was the take again last week like I said last week Scotty was the wrong price still because Weller was the gap of the other guys and I get that it was going to be 35 to 40% end up being even higher so I understand that too but the challenge was the guys behind them were not certified Killers you could easily fit two of them and still get away with it if you thought they were certified killers that going to climb up the board and he didn’t have to win there was just so many of those mid-tier guys that could have found their way to the top of the leaderboard that still would have required you to spend salary or likely people do spend salary where Scotty would have still fit in and when you add the 5K range it allows DraftKings just to throw everybody down there that used to be in the 6K range which therefore boosts the value of the 6K range and mind you a $5,800 winner with h with Davis Riley don’t expect that every week but still just showed again like I said Scotty could have came 10th and still would have put up over 90 points with two bogey free rounds a bunch of birdies not many bogeys I mean Sunday was terrible for him and it cost me some too but still great week just saying like it was a bad week um for Scotty to come and he still comes T2 it’s just Insanity so give me your thoughts on that and then how it applies when we talk about this 10.1k and up range from Lowry to Roy maroy at 121 yeah i’ almost go as far as to say that we’ve reached a point at least with with Scotty’s price each week where the decision of whether or not to play Scotty is as much about who is in the five- sixk range as it is about how well you think Scotty’s gonna do because I I didn’t play Scotty this past week even though we had him project I think he was like 63% chance of a top five which is just completely absurd 34% chance to win I didn’t play him because I didn’t like the cheap options but I don’t think Rory is quite that high where where the the decision of whether or not to play Rory depends on on who’s available in the five and 6K range but I will say there are a bunch of names here that I do think are really intriguing I mean Thal has been my guy like every single week that he tees it up 10 five Adam Scott 9,000 Keith Mitchell 87 two other guys that just played this past week uh Mitchell’s Sunday really killed me um but other than that like he was great and Adam Scott played an awesome awesome week so lots of ways I think you can approach the top of this board this week and we’ve seen the RBC Canadian open other courses mind you but just have some great events where it is really a cream Rises to the top it is these guys at the top that you see do it so you could see even that year Rory won um recently what was it that year with um Justin Thomas phenow Lowry all those guys were up top it was an awesome finish and I think Rory ended up taking out JT Fen now fell back a little bit etc etc but there was a lot of guys up there and I believe like that’s the same type of scenario anybody could have got that win from Rory because the names were capable of doing so and here maybe we see the same I love that take you had though and the way you worded it of it’s not about what you actually think Scotty’s going to do I mean right now we think he’s gonna win every tournament and try and fade this guy for whatever reason but the point would be it also is more about what makes him work and how many scenarios would be there that even if he didn’t come top five could he still end up being in the mix and that’s what I saw last week and then he ends up having a you know pretty bad Scotty week but still good enough to be T2 that just tells you everything you need to know so um let’s talk about Rory here Rory down to low and then what do you think theala puts it what do you think he carries it off the te he puts it out there doesn’t he yeah I I I want to say he’s he’s close to to 300 it’s weird with him because he goes to this like Stinger type drive so often that if you go and just look at his carry numbers you’re not going to see how far he can carry the ball because if he needs to add Loft to it and carry it he can so I always kind of default the ball speed as as the best indicator and he he’s got very solid ball speed yeah sometimes he’s carrying at 300 this way so it doesn’t let they measure it out this way like oh it’s actually 260 but it’s 300 that way because he can definitely be a little bit wi like you off the te have some issues but I think in general um you know he’s a good discount here from Rory so any thoughts on Fleetwood Lowry more on theala and then just overall thoughts on Rory here at 121 obviously suits the course quite well won it back in 2019 doesn’t sound like the changes will affect him at least so how do you think you know on a first look show you think about handling a guy like Rory and do you think his ownership could exceed Scotty’s from last week where it just becomes that same thing again and people just roll it out there I I’d be shocked if it does we have seen Rory as like the the huge huge chalk already this year at PGA National uh so it’s not like it can’t happen but man I think everybody knows that Scotty’s in his own tier right now yeah and particularly from a floor perspective right like Rory’s going to have some events where you really are kind of disappointed with him you just mentioned it like Scotty had a had a down week this past week and he still finished his T2 so I I don’t think we’re gonna see Scotty type ownership on Rory but it could get up there yeah I agree so any thoughts on Lowry Fleetwood quick I know we talked about the top two guys anything else you want to add yeah when I look at theala Fleetwood and Lowry I think only one of them has the win equity and the upside to really challenge Rory up there so if I’m paying $110,000 it’s either theala or Rory yeah I think the one thing people will look at maybe you know again we’ll see by the end of the week how things come around but I think Lowry um finished second right to to marroy back in in 2019 so maybe that’s a thought that people have but I definitely agree with you on everything else up top so let’s move on let’s go to this 9k range we’ve got uh what do we got here we got noren down to Adam Scott and you mentioned Adam Scott I know he’s out there grinding right now right he’s got to get back I think to the top 60 I think I saw everything on it there last week they were mentioning about so he’s out there trying to do his thing but what what are you thinking here in this 9k range he ended up finishing 12th last week but he’s putting in the work right now to try and get his ranking back to where it needs to be yeah it seems to me like both the 9k and the AK ranges are kind of full of guys who are overpriced uh so finding the guys who are just price then you also kind of have to hope that they end up being under owned too um like Adam Scott Keith Mitchell I think those guys I mentioned before are probably the most likely that I would play in this range seems like cam young Corey Connors Burns I I don’t know why Mt McNeely is 9200 He he’ll probably be lower owned but yeah all all these guys I I think are either overpriced or they have a very good chance of being over owned so you know we we mentioned like the fact that sometimes decision for Scotty isn’t about whether or not you think Scotty’s going to do well it’s about who’s available down below it can also be about how great are the plays in these eight to 9k ranges because if I don’t want to play anyone in this range okay now I’m much more likely to go up to play Rory yeah I think that’s another great point just say it’s not even just the top and the bottom it’s what’s in the middle and this is sort of the the meat and potatoes of it is this 99 down to 8K range where we’ve got 14 guys here and it’s hard to you know besides the the guys you always see like you know Cory Connor Aaron Ry like we can talk about them they always pop into the mix and always get some ownership but for the most part you’re not going to see um them go out and win a lot of tournaments or anything like that right you’re just counting on them to come through as a value play but now when they’re priced 8,500 and above they’re above your average you know some of these guys into the you know Cory Conor 9500 mcney 9200 great Sunday round but coming off a $7,700 price tag to immediately see 9200 it’s quite the shock so um interesting range here anybody just uh know a is there a couple guys that stand out to you that you’d see early on that you would think about if it wasn’t like maroy theala those guys up top anybody in this 9k that stands out heavy um I I will always mention the fact that cam young is amongst the guys who’s most likely to outproduce his actual leaderboard position with his DraftKings points just because of the amount of birdies and Eagles he makes now he hasn’t been quite as good in that department this year as he’s been in past Seasons but that that still makes him a bit of an intriguing option anytime he’s te it up especially if he ends up being on the lower own side yeah and it’s every tournament’s different but just you can see here some of these like 70 point performances are with really bad results right it’s because you’re mixing in Eagles there streaks there’s more birdies than others things like that and people do that’s why I hinted at that earlier like you really got to remember the game that we’re playing it’s a scoring game fantasy points matter so even with Scotty it was like two Spike rounds and one was a 67 the 63 mattered the most but that’s why like I said said even if people say yeah but he did come T2 it’s like he almost won sure that is the 20 points built in for a second place but I think it’s still seven points for 10th so it’s like you could have docked him 13 he still would have had 91 and just crushed considering all the guys around like sunj M came T9 last week with like 70 points it’s this guy would have been 10th and still had 91 if you just take that off the top the uh the Wells Fargo was a was a fantastic example of that with Cam he made 20 birdies Rory made 21 birdies and Eagles combined so Rory won by a million and made one more birdier Eagle than uh than cam because cam had five doubles so five doubles or worse so that’s just the difference but scoring wise that means that what it can’t finish 34th so he was probably like between 15th and 20th and DraftKings points there yeah he’s he really did score well I mean he had two more birdies but he didn’t have the eagle Rory had the Eagles that week that matters the the all four under 70 that adds up but like this is what people also don’t look at I think enough as like 71 69 71 but the only thing that stands out is the 76 like oh this guy sucks it’s like well it was two strokes here two strokes here from three straight 69s and if he just doesn’t have and I Know It fs and butts and all that but my point being I do think it’s something that people should look at a little bit more I was trying to see how my guy’s been doing I was Advocate I was an advocate for my guy here and saying type of setup I mean it’s not the worst but again two strokes and you add another five points to that plus the birdies that go with it you’re talking almost 80 but typically you see it like T30 still gets 100 points with 17 birdies and two Eagles 14 and an eagle 13 and an eagle the guy 19 birdies like these are tough tracks too this is the Players Championship the Masters 14 birdies I mean if it played easier this year but still my point is with Adam Scott while I was like him you know whatever whatever he’s he’s 9k it’s hopefully the fact that he’s not 8900 in Best Buy pricing makes it so people that don’t like him maybe they still will but there is Aaron Ry Mitchell Tom Kim some of those guys we’ll get to in a second down here any quick uh Cory Conor’s thoughts I’m obviously biased when it comes to him because the Canadian Factor but any thoughts on him coming out and pulling a Nick Taylor and getting the job done or do you think it would more likely be somebody else I mean these are good results for a signature event and a major right that’s I think people discount this too oh he’s always a guy that just gets you a top 30 or a top 40 yeah he’s playing in the hardest strongest fields at the top courses and putting up these results where again just couple Strokes here couple Strokes there still putting up the points any thoughts on Cory Connor uh as the Canadian guy this week as always the ball striking has been there uh the putter has not and everyone always talks about how the putter doesn’t match the ball striking they always Overlook the fact that his around the green play is even more of a weakness than his putting so I I’m probably going to stay away from Connors this week but it’s not because of the putter it’s because of what we think is going to be a pretty high around the green signal week and Conor’s just falls short there but man his his iron play has been so spectacular that if he’s in contention I’m not going to be surprised in the slightest yeah you don’t need a around the green play if you just stick it to six feet every time then you just need a putter but uh yeah that’s that’s what we were talking about a little bit this week right where this time the around the green play can be more because you’re hitting three wood into a par and you’re purposely putting it in the greenside bunker because you know that’s an easy up and down things of that nature yeah so it’s it’s a little bit of a different around the green signal than most weeks but your point is always true it sometimes you can just hit the ball so well that you don’t need the the around the Green in fact maybe it means that he’s hitting that three wood to 20 feet in two putting so yeah it can definitely work that way I think it’s also I know it’s you know first look for a classic slate show but I think it’s something that comes up in Showdown as well when you’re playing PGA DFS Showdown it’s like people are like but his round the green was so bad in round two like that’s what killed him who cares in round three if that h i mean you’re dead if that happens in round three anyway you’re not really worried about that you want the ball striking to take care of business so it’s like that’s why I I can ignore that in something like a showdown slate on a Maine you’re kind of considering it a little bit more of who’s going to be able to make it through battle make the cut and then hopefully find a spike round or two over the weekend and get into the action for you so other guy I guess that would stand out maybe a little is Sam Burns I just don’t know he he was good right after having the kid and then it kind of fell apart the next week so it’s tough to say but if I could see if I could say somebody down here that you could say is kind of like sort of the right price probably still not he’s probably still overpriced but I’m just saying like at least I could see the guy has win equity on the PJ tour he wins more than most the guys around him here so uh or has it’s just whether or not he can show back up so um don’t hate going to someone like him let’s keep it moving let’s go to this 8K range we got Ry down to Nick Taylor last year’s winner obviously an emphatic win took it away from Tommy lad but great to see a Canadian get back into the winner circle and just a crazy crazy finish to get it done the way he did but oh man I hope that course just a quick side note that was painful that play just watching them replay this hole and they kept playing it the same way over and over and the back stopping that was allowed and just everything I just never want to see that again that just it reminds me luckily an amazing finish the Canadian got the job done shout out Nick Taylor but hard to watch that one think and remind myself of it back in my head uh thoughts on this 8K range Alex any any thoughts extra there yeah Mitchell’s the one who stands out as I mentioned um beyond that there there are a couple guys who I expect to be really low owned like well maybe maybe they won’t be but Mt Hughes at 83 anytime around the green spikes I I have interest there he had a series of of very good events in Ros he was actually fairly popular as one of the cheapest options DWS Fargo but then you go to the PGA Championship he miss is the cut so maybe his ownership will drop again in which case I’d be interested in Hughes um I think AA and Nick Taylor are probably going to be the more popular guys and I kind of think they deserve that ownership I don’t know what you’re thinking there yeah I think it’s gonna happen no matter what oay continues with his sort of Mo now of like it’s Boomer bust again it’s so funny though like these are nothing like 7372 that’s he didn’t do anything wrong he just didn’t make the cut and it’s you know a few Strokes here a few Strokes there people like he missed the cut though he’s not in good form 7370 like the at a PGA Championship these are pretty standard scores out there and again you’re not playing them for that you’re playing them for these spikes including the win but like 17th 11th 1 35th 18th and 35th typically at a course like this that’s at the Masters at a course like this that would come with scoring so can shake that one off a little bit but I think it’s fine yeah to your point there I think uh you know Aaron Ry will still get some love because two things one uh you know he people love him two the Best Buy pricing of 8,900 and three um you know okay form coming in I guess it would be a fourth then that I was going to try and get to was that uh definitely known more for his around the green play you think back to when he won this is way back now winning the Scottish open but just being able to miss clip it up tight he does it all the time the problem with him is he puts everything from around the green to four feet and then you do have to sweat the four footer it’s like every single time and he misses a lot of them so um just a note on him but I like your Mitchell call I like you know some of the bottom range stuff shout out to our guy Ren he’s a huge uh EVR fan he pops up here says finally gets his respect let’s go what’s what’s he doing this is nuts though it it is pretty crazy look at this t53 at the PGA Championship but pops a 14 14 birdies and an eagle for almost 70 points Myrtle Beach he was the huge favorite there did not get the job done but man you know this better than anyone that’s golf rough Sunday after you know three strong rounds not rough it’s a 70 I mean literally it’s a 70 but at that course the way it’s playing obviously not going to fully get the job done but t33 for 80 and a half I mean this this guy can put up the points for sure any quick thoughts on EVR and then we’ll move on to the sevenk range no I I just agree with with the with the idea that he’s just a great scorer and another guy that you can throw in the in the group with Cam young Keith Mitchell just almost always going out produce his real life lead report position on the DraftKings Sports yeah shout out to go collect appreciate it if you guys are watching live do us a favor smash that like subscribe to the channel we are on the drive for 7K so when we get to 7,000 we’ll be giving away an annual PGA membership $299 value we’re getting close now I think we’re just over 6,700 so make sure to subscribe for the channel appreciate that if you are watching on replay I know many of you out celebrating having fun today please hopefully be safe if you’re watching this in the evening hopefully you were safe but just in general make sure if you’re watching always help us out hit that like button supports the channel helps us out we always say it we’re going to keep going keep growing that’s part of it so help us out there back to the 7K range here Mark hubard is 7900 and I think he always gets a little bit of love I know last week sort of fell off it was 71 7171 then a 74 but he was well- loved going into the week I saw round four Showdown a lot of people liked Davis Thompson so maybe that that love continues Taylor pendri I mean one recently and then on top of it uh you know you know Canadian guy so maybe maybe go there and then there’s a lot of guys that you can just take a risk on Adam senson maybe gets a bit popular couple good you know making Cuts Like Crazy solid enough finishes but he’s kind of the opposite effect Alex like where is the upside with this guy it’s a made cut but where where is the upside I guess you need made Cuts so it’s helpful but um you know he’s almost always seemingly going to be your Sixth Man uh going in end out of how things shake out on the tournament if you get a six to six yeah I agree with that that the two that come to my mind here in this range number one Daniel Burger couple years ago if we saw 7700 in a feeli like this we’d be jumping all over it now we haven’t seen anywhere near that version of burger yet this year but’s starting to put some solid rounds together he’s driving the ball well again his iron play has been pretty consistent in the last three events the short game hasn’t been there so that’s again the the hangup for me but there’s a chance that you’re getting somebody who’s rounding back into that like 9k form at 7,700 so that’s a little bit intriguing and then not many guys going to be better course fits in our model than Ben Griffin this week coming off of two bad weeks so again maybe you get an ownership discount because of that but he was really solid before that and another guy who scores extremely well had four consecutive events with 19 plus birdies for a little while there some easier courses of course but this is going to be a fairly easy course as well so uh some interest there um obviously the form isn’t great and actually this past week he was a pretty good course fit and didn’t do well so I I always love to find guys who you know they they haven’t played that well but they haven’t fit the course for some time and then they all of a sudden get to a golf course that should fit their skill set it’s not exactly that case with Ben Griffin even though this one does fit him well yeah I think that’s an interesting point too just because you look at it for the setup here like again 7172 like it it’s not that bad it just it’s the way it goes right that’s Golf and even go back to the PGA Championship it was rough start popped to 65 in round two probably missed the cut I forget what it was there I think it was four over or three it was definitely up there I’m pretty sure at the PGA Championship popping a 65 after a 73 I know that first round was really easy so maybe I’m off of my numbers but again to your point you go back before that even if you include that round it’s like 65s all under 70s all under 70s only one over 70 you know a couple 69 some 68s this this guy can really put it out there so uh you know as far as scores go put him up there I should say 7500 he’s fine I think Kevin Yu is another guy that was popping a little bit last week had a good Myrtle Beach and then not so great um Charles Schwab but just a note he’s there uh hogard the chat was mentioning I think he’s gonna be an interesting play this week we’ll probably have more on him when we get to the Wednesday show but uh you know someone talked about it here and said uh you know the talent just has to put it all together some of these numbers are tougher to see he had a 77 in round two he’s had some bigger um round out there but anybody in this lower 7K range that stands out for you on this first look does seem to be a smaller 7K range again I’m going to double check it while you talk about it yeah yeah I think you’re right about that Bo Hustler is a name that again short game comes up I think of Bo Hustler another guy coming off of two pretty bad performances in a row so it’s one of those things where you just have to wait and see what ownership is like right if if the whole field is scared of those two bad events okay I mean if the field isn’t scared of them and there’s a chance that he’s just going to get continue to play poorly okay now I’ll side with the The Leverage side and fade that instead um but I I think the the theme in this area is like there are a lot of guys who I think are going to project pretty well who have played poorly in their last couple starts so there’s a chance we’re going to get some really nice ownership discounts yeah and there’s it was really tough to say I know we saw this at least uh last week couple weeks ago too like where this range while you have the condensed ownership on one or two guys then there’s like that bubble or that pocket of guys that everyone just spreads out completely on because everybody wants some everybody want everybody’s got there’s a gim person out there that wants gim there’s a senson person the Canadians that want him here oh but Fox would be the pivot so I’ll go to him and they all end up in that 8 to 12 range and you could do whatever you want and then you know there’s not many that fall to like a 2% or something this week I could see that’s more in the upper 6K range where you could see guys get like no ownership maybe olison or something like that you see not get a lot of love but there is guys in here that you can play the chat asked about Davis Riley going back to back do you have any takes on DFS backtack or like just golf in general like you know what the mindset is coming off of it because I remember way back when there was like a little bit of a study done this is probably outdated now but was like golfers that get cheaper after a win typically still did well like it was not anything again they don’t know their price it had nothing to do with that it was just the fact that at least they still played okay enough to pay off said price tag in this case we got the opposite here he’s going from 5,800 up to 7200 any takes on just what it’s like winning and then coming back out and then on top of it how it relates to DFS and just the mindset of people playing DFS winning definitely takes a lot more mental energy than anything else so there there there is something behind the idea of oh I don’t want to play somebody coming off of a win but you also have to recognize like what what state the player’s in in terms of his career Davis r isn’t thinking like oh my God my life has changed I you know I just accomplished everything I wanted to accomplish in golf he wants to continue to get better he wants to continue to you know have this kind of success in larger bigger events stronger fields that sort of thing so I I would almost say sometimes there’s like a delayed effect too where he’s going to show up next week and if he starts well he’s going to be able to continue to ride that momentum that wave of success and he might be able to contend again if on the other hand he starts poorly it’s going to be a little bit tougher for him to find you know the mental energy to scrape a m cut through whereas in a regular week if you start poorly on Thursday it’s pretty easy to battle your ass off on Friday to try to make that cut so it it’s a variable that does matter a little bit but I do tend to think that people overestimate it yeah I think he’s gonna fall in sort of middle of the road I don’t think it’s G to get a ton of ownership because off a win people usually don’t like to go there but I think to your point it it’s a good call up where it’s almost worth it for the risk versus reward you just I mean we talked about earlier with like OE Keith Mitchell some of those guys we mentioned where we know they’re boom bus but we want some of that into our build do you have anything you do when you’re building and doing roster construction that sort of limits any of that where it’s like okay I don’t want three or four of these guys that have the chance to explode and blow up my lineup but I want to take on a little more risk because it’s a large field versus dialing that back in for smaller Fields anything on roster Construction there that you can relate back to that yeah I think it’s a really good point so one one thing that we do is we estimate both round to round standard deviation and event to event standard deviation that which it turns like you might think oh they’re both just measures of volatility and golfers are either volatile or they’re not it’s not the case some guys are really volatile event to event but you kind of know what they’re going to be like all week once you see how they play Thursday and Friday other guys it’s like every single day could just be anything Riley is by the way one of the guys who’s just his volatility is off the charts so yeah uh you know that kind of Spike that we just saw last week technically hypothetically it could happen anywhere for him so that was again really cool to see from him that he finally you know took that high event to event standard deviation and did something with it because that’s that’s the great side of being volatile is you get those great ceiling performances um but to your to your original question like I think number one our gpp scores kind of create that balance automatically because it’s not just going to point to guys who are really volatile it’s also going to point to guys who have the really nice floor and are under own because of their floor but you can also just do that manually by saying like all right I I can see how volatile each guy is so I want to have a nice balance of maybe I’ll have three guys who are above average standard deviation three guys who are below average standard deviation things of that nature I do think it’s a a pretty solid way to build linup yeah just like you said I I can easily see the Davis Riley situation he comes out hot and then just rides that adrenaline momentum off the win from the previous week and just feeling it and keeps going obviously a guy that was quite touted I mean obviously a guy that you know more people know some about from like Tony Romo stories and golfing in Texas and things like that but I mean this was huge and to take down the world number one when he’s been super hot like that is the kind of Point here that that’s got to feel good not just breaking free from the oh it was only a team win with Nick Hardy to now saying it’s an individ idual win but also the way it happened and the final group that he was in was him and Scotty so I mean very incredible stuff for a guy like him to go out and get the job done get the monkey office back for the individual win when it comes to that so love to see it shout out to my guy Dwayne really appreciate it man as always always Gonna Keep out out here grinding just like you man try trying to keep up with my guy Dwayne but shout out to him maybe try and get Dwayne in on the action a little when we get to the NFL season I’d love to do some uh some of those review shows with him so he’s in the Discord always out there supporting gave away a bunch of M back at the PGA Championship so shout out to Dwayne let’s keep it moving Alex here got to talk about this upper range last year’s Rookie of the Year Eric Cole man he fits that mold I guess of the other stuff but where has this guy been because gonna be a decision this week I think for some cut cut but it was 7271 7271 not much crazy before that but little bit tougher Fields tougher courses all of that do you think this could set up well for Eric Cole and then who are some of the other guys sort of 6,500 up to 6,900 that you might have in mind Cole was the first guy that I was going to bring up down here because man like the the guy the type of guys that I’ve brought up so far like these guys who haven’t played great in their last few starts but you know that the talent is there and the fit is there Eric Cole is that but on steroids his his form has been atrocious and yet if you look back to more his like his long-term form my God this is a fantastic setup for him he could be one of the best plays on the Slate and that regard I don’t know if I can I can go here because he’s just been so bad and he’s been so bad in every aspect of the game right it’s not like he just needs to turn around his iron play or he just needs to get the putter going again it’s every part of his game right now is slumping so it’s it’s gonna be that much tougher for him to get back in form uh kind of the flip side of that is sunun Kim 6800 he popped for us he was one of our best course fit specialists at the Byron Nelson he ends up finishing fourth was a big reason why we had takedowns that week and since then you he’s he hasn’t had like those huge finishes in fact he’s been near the bottom of guys who make the cut but at least on Thursdays and Fridays he’s played some really solid Golf and this is now getting back to a course that fits him as best as any course has since the Byron Nelson he’s one of the guys who’s by far the most sensitive to course fit because if you look at his Strokes game profile like he’s long off the te he’s great around the greens and every other aspect of his game is questionable at best so uh in that regard this week could be really good for him 1600 I think he’s going to be worth a shot and hopefully his game just really Trends in the right direction you mentioned like looking at guys who you know maybe they just had that one round that held in back well this past week at the Charles Schwab 66 71 69 and then just struggled mightily in the win with a 79 coming in in the final round so without that he’d have a much better finish his numbers would look better I do think his whole game is kind of trending in the right direction yeah and I think that’s where you know we’re tying it all together now bringing it a full circle but some of the stuff you just don’t know what’s going on with their golf game and the guys like you know shkim I liked him last week that 79 on Sunday sucked but it was tough for many golfers on Sunday a guy like Eric Cole you don’t know what he’s working on right now or what it’s gonna be but sometimes getting back to a course that does really suit you is what snaps you out of it and gets you back on track I mean if you think someone’s going to get back on track you can’t just face them forever so that’s kind of that part and then even going back earlier like last week people say oh you know um you know the cor fit rankings my ass like I don’t know how you could trust Riley this that and the other it’s like again it only takes a week of turn he was with the new coach he did show a little bit of signs of life he said later which no one knew this of course he said he was battling a bit of injury at the start of the season but you still knew the talent was there you are taking a risk when you’re playing these guys for sure but it’s that’s part of it and sometimes it’s a course like this to snap them out of it I just think that’s you know back to your Ben Griffin call earlier or Hustler we looked at they shot 7271 they weren’t broken they didn’t shoot 8880 and like are contemplating should they continue or go take a couple weeks off they just didn’t play good golf for the two rounds that you need to make the cut therefore when everyone says someone sucks oh he hasn’t done [ __ ] lately he missed two cuts okay what’ he do before that he crushed in the Ben Griffin scenario it’s like you know you have to just give some breaks on those things and take more consideration than some of that other stuff and uh the chat’s talking about my guy man Mayo calls him Mark Messier back in the hockey days those that know Mark Messier but MC Meisner man he just went out last week and did his thing he was an awesome value play I liked him and S Kim quite a bit obviously the of course straight rankings liked Riley so in those builds you know I didn’t quite get all of it together to get to the full top but a great week nonetheless using some of those guys my dad’s guy Kevin TW is here in the mix he’s got he’s gonna be popular this week I think somehow just because another good week even with the 75 on Sunday really solid week otherwise with a spike round in there we know he could put it out there the ninth the third some of this stuff t43 at the Wells Fargo which is a signature event like I think for sure he’s gonna get a little bit of love at least at 6700 we’ll have to wait and see but I think I could see him getting it there Chan Kim I feel like as a guy again the cut 73 and a 73 and a 70 it’s not like the worst but 14th at the Texas open T6 um the Byron Nelson again oh but he missed the cuts 7370 and a 6672 like this sucks for a guy to go out and shoot a 66 then follow it up with a 72 to probably I think that week was 5 under so missed the cut on the number like that’s gotta feel brutal so we’ll look at that I mean we not going to go into all these guys but there’s other ones here in the 6K range the chat’s talking about um Troy Merritt what is Troy Merritt’s price this week he was the flowchart I don’t even know have we got to Troy Mar yet Nick Hardy maybe gets inspired by his former zurk classic partner win with Davis Riley from the previous week I mean he he’s not doing much himself but again there’s a 66 in there no big numbers these are just big for those tournaments but like a 25th made the cut last week I mean these guys can Spike I will say this for an old guy that’s been popping a little bit lately uh a decent week from Zack Johns for a t-45 before that was T20 I mean he’s been doing a little bit more lately chz reevy popped a little bit I saw and it’s again nothing seriously bad within here like his worst round is what a 73 last week twice before that there was nothing worse than a 71 like these guys are playing fine golf is there anybody there else in the 6K you want to talk to if not let’s do a quick run through of maybe anybody you see that pops in the 5K range there’s not really anyone else in the six uh the guy in the five is is somebody that Chad already mentioned it’s Troy Merritt 5800 and he was another guy who really popped for us as a course fit specialist at the Byron Nelson like it you your course fit Specialists just popped like crazy this past week with Riley Zack Johnson those guys our version of that was the Byron Nelson we had the sh Kim uh fourth place finish we had Troy Merrick get into the top 10 and we mentioned it earlier this is another course like at the Byron Nelson that you’re seeing this spike in around the green signal even though it’s going to be a birdie Fest so definitely a spot that I’d be interested in going back to Meritt for yeah you know the Meritt flow chart I talk about it sometimes but it’s you know is Troy Meritt playing yes is he cheap yes is it a birdie Fest likely in this case and you know then play Troy Meritt and especially if the fields not that strong and so at 5,800 I definitely think the way he’s been playing too get him into the mix none of these 5K guys by the way ever get love like it doesn’t matter it’s like Mike it 5 perc and then you still can make the argument sure that you take the 1% guy but I don’t know if you do I think at that time it’s just like honestly it’s not a head-to-head matchup we’re talking about like it’s finish out your lineup with the guy you want to finish it out with I think you’re sort of taking your stands down here T dunks T dunks has to be like Adam senson for cheaper no upside whatsoever there’s some nice made Cuts in there but you just never see the full pop anymore so tough to say there I know Joel Damon was popping a little in round four it did not come to fruition but people were playing them round four Showdown I saw some good stats on him I kind of liked him there but nothing again from upside perspective but it only takes a week I mean back at the Players t11 so may maybe you could see something out of some of these guys but I don’t think I’ve got too much else down here I’ll do a quick run through on the other side Callum Taran I don’t know what he’s been up to how much is he again I I think n Smith is another name that that you could throw in down here what are you thinking on him yeah talk about n Smith for a second he he’s been somebody who just he pretty much always projects fairly well for us and you know there was a stretch there where nothing was coming from that now 54th at Myrtle Beach 24th at the Charles Schwab and importantly he’s been having success again in the categories that we expect him to iron play run the green play so this could be a decent fit for him as well yeah and same we’ve been doing this all day so I’ll round it out on this but like the 7976 pretty bad that’s way back you know the start of April now we’re getting almost close on June here two months later give or since then it’s like nothing atrocious oh but the only this only that he’s still put up almost 65 points in both of those at 5700 that’ll play very nicely coming off a t24 at the Schwab and then even at the Byron Nelson a 70 and a 69 that though tell you which you know very well how hard the game of golf is not much else is going to tell you 70 and 69 for a three under nope you’re not seeing the weekend still it doesn’t matter it’s what everybody else has been doing so um I think Beyond this like Ross asked this good question but again you’re just what my always my answer to this always is the same like you’re trying to you know been doing this here if you like them play them play them enough so that it actually matters but typically even if they pop like look look at last week Riley gotta go to the house with it at 1% or under sub one% ownership and the only reason you see a bunch of our community at the top and we’ve got crossover between both of our communities but the reason you see it is clearly because he was number one in the cor fit rankings that people just trust and roll out and I will say that’d be my final note and then I’ll let you talk about fdn and what you guys got going on but the course fit rankings it got brought up like oh you just play them every week you won’t get like or this guy did bad in them still like everyone always looks for a negative around it I was just trying to say one thing like I don’t care either way I used them clearly I showed it off that I use exactly what we carry and that turned in to those three tickets but my point would be you’re looking for Spike weeks in PGA DFS like you’re G to lo you can lose 12 weeks in a row make no money and then have one week and make it all back and a bunch more on top that’s typically how it goes for somebody playing looking at the long term these course fit rankings amongst the stone and the projections and other things you guys have the gpp score I’ll let you talk more on ftn the second but just in general find your resources build your process up stick with it if you build in sets or whatever it might be you can get around to some of these builds that you have these lineups my point would be you don’t have to trust them or use them as the the sort of one-way Street like it’s a piece of the puzzle it’s a piece of the process but I’ve had Spike weeks by just using the cor STP rankings like three times already this year and that’s more than most are gonna find or even myself I’m thrilled with that and when I have my nine previous weeks that sucked boom now yesterday happens and get it all back and more couple Showdown runouts lately things like that where I don’t mind just trusting some of the resources that you have sticking to your process and being able to roll it out there because you are literally just looking for those Spike weeks you’re not going to win if you I would rather once out of every 13 to 15 weeks big which most of you should but maybe it doesn’t said enough then I would just make profit every week make a hundred bucks every week wo profit baby no that’s not why we play the game the name is ship it Nation we’re trying to ship it take it down get the job done win the most possible and SP when you spike make it happen for a lot of money so any final thoughts on that Alex and let the people know where to find you and what you guys have going on over at ftn I think it gets back to something you said earlier where some like Hy pathetical DFS player could have been like well H I can’t trust Davis Riley this week he hasn’t done anything it’s not about trusting a player right it’s it’s about acknowledging the fact that he has the potential to do something that helps you ship the contest get the takedown Etc and so I I always tell people like if someone asks in Discord do you trust so and so tonight do you trust so and so this week it’s like get get that word out of your DFS vocabulary trust doesn’t belong in in what we’re talking about when we’re going for these takedowns and and the gpp scores are the exact same way right so you might look at the top five gpp scores if two of them fail it doesn’t matter if the other three come through and help you get the takedown so yeah very similar idea for us and then the other thing that I’d say is you know we always talk behind closed doors you and I about how one thing that you guys don’t offer that we do is prize picks and so anyone listening who wants to get more involved with prize fixs whether it’s PGA MLB NBA our guy Zach is now crushing w ba as well which just helps us even more you know head head on over to ftn try us out $250 and for the whole year gets you the full ftn DFS subscription so come check us out prize picks PJ whatever you want we’ve got it yeah and they can find you on X as well what’s your your handle over there at Alex blickle one yeah check them out guys definitely follow Alex appreciate you coming on again as always man definitely just love doing shows with you good little back and forth be able to find you know we got some good istry already but find different angles of approach in really helped us out hoop is off but he’ll be back on Wednesday with me on this channel 2:30 Eastern for the regular PGA show thank you guys so much for watching hope you have a great Memorial Day if you’re watching this on replay do us a favor smash that like hit the subscribe to the channel so we can get to 7,000 and beond and do more giveaways thank you again to Alex thanks to all for watching I’m to tag and Tambo let’s ship it [Music] go [Music]
6 Comments
Big fan of Alex always enjoy his insight.
hamhock41 my boy! 🍻
Female fan here. Thanks guys for all the info
Shoutout tambo for the Davis Reily pick. Got me first place in the $3, 118 player pool
Beau hossler pitching wedge is Birkenhead my dude couldn’t throw a dart if his life depended on it
Great show. Tway at 6700 seems low!