PGA Championship 2024 | Tips, Betting Preview & Expert Insight

Host George Elek is joined by oddschecker golf expert Niall Lyons and analyst Justin Ray to preview the 2024 PGA Championship in Kentucky.

Niall has worked as a golf trader and been tipping for oddschecker for a number of years and Justin is head of content for Twenty First Group, who provide sports intelligence and analytics to the professionals.

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hello and welcome to the odds Checker betting show this is your PGA Championship preview I’m your host George elic and I’m delighted as I was the head of the Masters to be joined by a che’s very own tips n lions and Justin Ray from 21st group Justin you join us said 8:00 a.m. your time that’s that’s right isn’t it coffee is brewed we’re ready to go we’re fired up you know I don’t need much caffeine the week of major championships but yes it is it is uh bright and early we’re brigh eyed in Bush G 8 a.m. well I mean yeah I’m kind of normally the same a week of a major championship my mind can’t really focus on anything else but as a big football fan Nile will know when my team Oxford United in a playoff Final on Saturday thinking about the PJ championship and pouring over as many strokes gained stats as I can possibly find is my one way to keep my mind off my trip to Wembley on Saturday so I’m I’m delving deep into this um n how you doing yeah not too bad uh in terms of football anime nothing exciting happening in my in my world Manchester United’s best performance of the Season wasn’t it on on Sunday uh yeah who knows who knows what’ll happen but uh interesting game tonight too to be fair uh see if the t r can be turned on his head yeah it should be interesting but we’re not here to talk about football this time we’re here to talk about the second major championship of the year um last time we spoke as I say it was ahead of the master at Augusta and Justin what do you think we could take away from that weekend apart from the fact that Scotty shefa is quite good at golf and even better at winning yeah aside from the fact that the chasm between Scotty and everybody else seems to keep getting bigger and he just reaffirmed it when he got the win the following week at harbard toown which to me may have been even more impressive to do that coming off a master Victory I think the biggest takeaway for me is L bear in in his first major championship start you know near getting the job done the only guy between him and the green jacket was Scotty sheffler I thought that was just so impressive U Max H incredibly impressive as well for a guy through the first 16 major championships of his career never finished in the top 10 now he’s done it in back-to-back major starts shows that maybe he’s getting a little bit more comfortable in his own skin and maybe that’s you know come with growing a little bit more you know comfortable in that Spotlight on that big stage as he’s become uh one of the elite players in the sport and then I thought Bryson Des Shambo was really interesting I mean you know not talk about Bryson going into the Masters Augustin Asal kind of his white whale that he’s been you know trying to to he famously said that it was what a par 68 for him back in the day and then I think since then he hadn’t he hadn’t shot 68 at Augustus so he he may have put a little bit of the uh put a little bit of the golfing Gods on notice there but his performance I know he didn’t have it uh much late in the he wasn’t much of a factor late but to see him uh perform arguably the best he ever has at the Masters was pretty impressive too yeah I didn’t think it was I thought it was noticeable the way he shot his bass round on the first day the the the easiest day of the four and the softest the golf course was the four as well I was kind of telling every everybody who would listen after that Thursday I know on a few people who who had backed them I was like I think you need to cash out now the firmer and faster this golf course becomes this chipping and putting action you know it’s just not going to cut it around here I find it very hard to believe that he’ll ever went around austa just unless he kind of creates a bit more fail around his hands and that kind of action uh but yeah once again and we’ll probably get into it here in the PGA is his chances on a on a long softest golf course but the live golfers performed well once again I think there was four in the in the top 10 obviously cap is uh still the only one who’s won a major championships since uh the live golf tour started so will we see that change soon or will it just be cap know the only one who who can win a major once again but Fleetwood another top 10 the major not many more consistent than him and major championships these days as well so he could be another Factor this week but yeah it was it was a a very good Masters for once maybe until the back nine once he uh once schaffler skipped clear but it was great to see abber you know get right into it just round the turn when he buried the ninth that that great putt across the green you know to get wasin one or two shots at the time I was so excited to watch that P nine and then it just didn’t materialize but it was good up until learning away it’s funny it feels like so many Masters are kind of there the whole buildup and then from kind of Thursday through to to Sunday afternoon it’s it’s a bit of a slow burn then it bursts into life down the stretch on Sunday this was exactly the flip of that where there was so much drama so much Intrigue there was that was it um on Saturday I think was one of the best Saturdays we’ve ever seen at Augusta before when PS were finding it tough Friday night as well and then as you say n suddenly when it normally gets interesting Scotty just kind of casually pulled away and the thing that seemed to get lost in that was that you know the the player who is the best teer greed by miles in the in the field that weekend it wasn’t even the best part of his game and he’s still won but the way that he did absolutely remarkable stuff um you talked then about the um you know this being a different test for Bryson we’ll get on to him specifically later on but you also mentioned that you know it was soft early on um at auster on the Thursday after the after the the weather delay as well um forecast suggesting it could be a soft one of valhall again this weekend yeah there was rain already at the weekend there’s been rain in the leading and as far as I know today it’s it’s going to dump a lot of rain on the golf course I’d be surprised if the golfers aren’t pulled off the course sometime later today I I certainly know a few who have been out early you’re are going out early today to try and get some practice in uh one differences from 2014 is that they’ve changed the grass here the soyer grass and and typically that there is is a fair bit more receptive uh to the rain than other types of grass it drains better as well so there’s still a chance that it may it may be very very soft for the first couple of days but as the weather improves over the weekend and I think it is meant to improve maybe a slight bit of chance of rain early on Friday but uh it will be soft very soft to start uh and maybe uh of course superintendent and stuff will be able to get it into uh a bit firmer shape coming the weekend and for Justin for those who you know we’ve seen some major tournaments over the years at Valhalla we’ve also seen the rider cup of Valhalla in in recent times as well or fairly recent times um for those who who aren’t aware of the course what can you tell us about it and the challenges that it’ll oppose to the field well a couple what n just said about the soft conditions and the rain it’s a long Golf Course to get started anyway I mean they’ve lengthened it by some 150 yards since 2014 when Rory won here at the PGA Championship um looking at the par 3es every single one of them is at least 190 yards they range between 190 and I think 254 on the scorecard um with the average being about 216 you look at that and that’s about the same length of Bay Hill which is the second longest par 3es on average on the PGA tour they see all season I think that approach play from about 175 to 225 yards is going to be key indicator of success um and when I was combing through the players who were most successful in those situations this year it didn’t give me much Clarity because the best two players are Scotty sheer and Rory mroy so uh maybe we’re in for for a for a chalky PGA Championship it’s been kind of a theme um in recent years the exception of when colore cow won in the co year of 2020 of guys who were already major winners winning at pgaas but yeah I think the golf course is going to reward length and I I think the the Rainy conditions are really only going to enhance that trait um I’m I’m hopeful as n said that maybe it’ll it’ll dry out a little bit and we’ll see a little bit of that quickness in the greens as we get some better weather over the weekend but initially I think that you’ve got to really Bank on guys who are going to be able to take advantage of being able to carry the ball a really long way yeah and even if you look back to 2014 leaderboard you know it was Michael and vburger first and second heading into Sunday two of the biggest Sluggers in the game back then and obviously Michelson ended up finishing second and then behind them you had ston fur and fer slightly different profiles than uh you know the big hitters at the top of the leaderboard but as Justin says there I really expect this to go the way of a longer hitter uh the only kind of shorter one that comes into the equation could be call maraba there there’s a a few risk reward holes there at Valhalla and was we saw at Harding Park just how good he is and a couple of reachable far fours and how accurate he can be off the tea which may help his scores over the week but yeah I I fly expect this to go to the way of you know someone almost within the top 25 on tour and PJ tour distance and now what do you think we can expect from the scoring because looking back to 2014 Rory won on 16 under with head of Phil on 15 under a couple of players of 14 as well so you the scoring was decent that week is it weather dependent you know if it’s soft will we see scores like that again or or do you think it’ll play a bit a bit tougher yeah well I think the re on a soft Golf Course makes for simp simply easier Golf and that could bring in to play some golfers who are not quite in as good of form as as you would expect and some guys who you wouldn’t really consider it’s worth remembering that even at Augusta Max H was ma was mased at triple figures on the exchanges here before the off which it’s crazy to think if someone said that to you at the start of the year so someone mastered at 100 to one or bigger on the exchange obviously went very close he was he was ling a couple of back on into the last day and I think we were all maybe kicking ourselves that we hadn’t back maxom at such big Praises Mar how was another who went well and the Masters at Big prices so uh it can happen that the rain just dumped on the golf course will create chances for even for the lakes of Victor hin for example he hasn’t been playing that well but in terms of scoring I think we’ll definitely see more towards the scores that Brooks capus shot he shot 16 under when he won up B Reef uh I think you know marawa at Harding Park that was a totally different type of test but I definitely think we’ll see double figures under par this week I will say that since the switch from August to May the scoring has been vastly different at the PGA Championship if you go back looking since 2014 the PGA championships in August so 14 to 18 and then 2020 when Mor Cowell won they were an average of 46 players under par for the week in those events you go to May it’s just 11 so the scoring is has been pretty different when it comes to to comparing August and May weather conditions a little bit different I don’t know what Louisville Kentucky in in sticky kind of humid expected weather maybe that Trend flips a little bit but just something to keep in mind is that since they made the switch on the calendar the scoring has been a little bit tougher in May well let’s get into the field now we spoken about the course and who may fit it um and looking at the the odds Checker grids now where you can find all the best prices and place terms on there as well uh Scotty shefer is the 9-2 favorite Rory maroy 15-2 Brooks kka 16 to1 Xander Shuley 16 to1 lud ludic oberg is 18 to1 John Ram 20 to1 Bryson Des Shambo 28 to1 Kar carwa 28 to1 Homer 35 to1 uh Rocky nean 40 to1 these are all best prices and they probably come with fewer play terms but as I say on the other check of grids you can see uh the prices on the play SS there and as we talk through the players I’ll give an indication of who um is is the best place really to go for these if you want those extra places and the big prices too but it was always going to take a big performance for us not to start with Scotty Sheffer when talking through the top end of the leaderboard but I think we have to start with Roy maroy and it feels bizarre that just a month ago the three of us were chatting and I said it kind of feels like Mao is going into Augusta under the radar well I think he basically is the radar this weekend having put in a scintillating performance at qu Hollow um double bogging 18 to for his winning margin to be trimmed from seven to five after one of the most incredible stretches of holes after the turn I’ve ever seen on Sunday evening now you know the the narrative is here for maroy he’s won going into an event at the course where he won his his last major in 2014 he he is someone who seems to really relish playing at certain golf courses as well in the past what kind of a chance do you think Rory comes into this uh not only to to tople Scotty Sheffer but but go ahead and win his first major in such a long time yeah he’s obviously got a huge chance and he he improved so much with confidence and I think that was evident there at the weekend it was just absolutely flan out of him it was almost like the maroy of old that we used to love watching uh but it’s worth just cautioning that he’s arrived at Majors seven times since he won here at fhall off the back of a victory and he’s yet the better fifth place now whether any of those seven times he’s one he was playing quite as well as what he did there at Quail Hollow at the weekend I don’t know uh but he’s got he’s obviously arriving with a ton of confidence and it looked like the shackles were off and I think that uh the event in suich with she and Larry maybe helped that I think that the change in his schedule you know to play that event which I think was a great on you know basically over a drink on time with his meate that uh it’s proved to be a huge help to him I think uh going there to a PGA Tour event where there’s little or no pressure on them uh help the two Irishman and then obviously winning has given meloy another boost of confidence and he goes to a course that he knows and loves so well that he’s won on before and and throws in a performance like that so uh it mer a little bit of the way that he came in to Val Hall in 2014 off the back of winning an Open championship and being strong favored that it’s kind of similar this week so there’s no negative surrounding him and he could easily do the job I won’t be betting him but if we watch him win I’ll be happy to watch him do West losing money I mean Justin just like looking at at that performance last weekend as well like if you told Xander Shuley on Thursday morning that he was going to shoot 12 under and only 20 players or 9 players were going to be under par over the whole weekend I think he have been marching his way towards the trophy there and then but to lose by five I mean it was this wasn’t just dominance over the next you know in behind the field it was a total utter obliteration of the field wasn’t it um you know how do you see that performance going into this weekend in comparison to say Scotty Sheffer who’s only been beaten by one golfer in his last five starts yeah I mean so eight Roy was eight shots ahead of third place just a enormous Chasm that he was able to create between himself and the field that unbelievable performance on Sunday um I I’m kind of in the boat with Nile on the fact that we’ve kind of seen this before going into a major championship we’ve seen him come off victories and have great form and he reels Us in with his great performance I remember before the Masters telling you guys that at the Valero Texas open he had his best stroke SK approach week in X number of years it was really promising going into the Masters in a place where the approach plays of absolute Paramount importance I kind of have that feeling with the putter because he had the Sunday at Wells Fargo he gained more Strokes on the greens than he has in almost two years I think it was back at the US Open in the final round a couple years ago when Matthew Fitzpatrick one was the last time he gained that many strokes on the greens in round but you look back over the last several stars is since the beginning of the PLAYERS Championship Rory’s a top 25 putter on the PGA tour that’s a stark Improvement um I gotta to talk a little bit uh via text with Brad Faxon yesterday um his instructor and he says he’s been really encouraged by um what what Rory’s been doing on the greens as well so yeah look uh there’s he’s got so much great history at Quail Hollow he’s such a perfect fit at that golf course because he’s able to use his driver to the utmost it’s a it’s such it’s basically the most driver Centric golf course that they play all year on the PGA tour and that’s been reflected in the outrageous amount of success Rory’s had there over the years there are a lot of similarities between Valhalla and Quail Hollow that I think are gonna just benefit Rory maoy attacks a golf course on the whole um and you come in there coupled with that form and I I’m I might have a wager on Rory I might be a little bit tempted to to go that route the the value obviously is not going to be very strong with him so high on the board and so many people loving the way that he’s coming into this Championship but um it’s tough not to like what we’ve seen the last couple of starts and it’s not just coming off one win at Valhalla he won the open Bridgestone went to Valhalla in 2014 PGA in one same thing here I know the zurk classic paired with Shane l a little bit different than when in the open but two wins heading into Val how the the stars are aligned just a little bit if you’re into that you mentioned the pter there too on it’s interesting because even looking back here the 2014 it was dominated kind of by the bigger hitters towards the very top of the leaderboard anyway but what’s separated them was actually what happened on the greens mag Roy played very or ped very well that week I think four or six of the top 10 or something were inside the top 10 and strokes game put for the week and uh like that could just make the difference this week because the guys longer or shorter hitters they’re going to miss fur ways I’d be far prefer to be on the longer longer hitting guys here not quite as accurate but they they hit it in the rough and the test just might I don’t think the greens are very tough but it might just become a slight bit of it’s crazy to say this about a meter CH but a slight bit of a putting contest because the test is the same for everybody going forward it’s just bombs away and try and get it on the graen after that and it could turn out to be the best Putters that actually won the week to that point now the numbers back it up in 2014 the players who finished in the top 10 gained more than 35% of their Strokes for the week on the greens that was about three to four percent more than the PJ tour average doesn’t sound like a big gap but it was it that is a pretty significant distance between what we see week in week out on the PGA tour so you’re right it was a separating Factor when everybody’s facing the same test with ball striking sometimes that can be the one that separates the the winners from the contenders to see what Rory sings on the karaoke machine if he comes up with a win here on on Sunday evening um moving on to the the man who of course tops the market and is the master champion and probably fair to say stands you know looking in from the outside right now as good a chance of winning a a year a calendar year slam as anyone has done having won that event given how dominant he’s been recently as I say in his last four starts only one golfer has beaten him that was the bomb in Houston a few weeks ago um Scotty Sheffer you know they’ve announced now that that he is a father the baby has arrived so that kind of has taken the doubts about his his presence before Augusta should he have to leave the course if his wife went into labor done with how much sleep has Scotty Sheffer got well You’ think he’s probably got enough uh enough in the bank in order to pay for someone to look after the the new one at certain times um you know it’s hard to make a case against him isn’t it Nile and at 9-2 basically the same price he went off at at austa he’ll certainly have his backers yeah although I do think that like a PGA CH up such as this is a slightly more difficult defent to win than the Masters given the you know the way that place suits him as well uh what’s there’s nothing really that we haven’t mentioned before there’s you know he’s a n of two poke it’ll interest many you can kind of w and Don you back him and nobody else or you know you could even Dutch him and Mel and hope for the best but uh we always talk about you know the nappy factor and the Boost that gives some uh new parents but what kind of a boost does it give to somebody who was already the best back country mile before that you know what I mean I don’t know could it all could it only be a negative quite possibly so uh I I think just maybe a lack of tournament golf over the last couple of weeks might just be the only negative and it’s the main reason probably you know to steer away from back in the 92 again but Justin you you think you might go and do it again I I don’t see any reason why you can’t think that Scotty Sheffer is gonna do this this week is just I mean what can you say you know the ball striking numbers are just through the roof they’re unbelievable and there’s a reason why I’m clutching up straws Justin I’m clutching I know I look I it’s the easy answer right because I look I posted a tweet the other day and it was just some of the things that Scotty Sheffer leads the PGA tour in there’s a term in American baseball called the Triple Crown that’s when you lead for a season in it’s kind of an old school turn but batting average home runs in RBI three big offensive statistics Scotty leads in par three scoring par four scoring and par five scoring like I can’t remember other than tiger in 2000 I don’t even remember seeing that as a possibility for a player to do that the fact that he leads in Strokes g off the te Strokes Gan approach greas and Regulation and proximity to the hole oh by the way I know Strokes game putting is a better evaluator than this St but he also leads the tour now and putts for green regulation that’s not fair that’s ridiculous and couple that with the fact that if you look at the majors over the last three years and those rankings all are first and everything as well I mean look there’s a this guy’s head and shoulders above everybody I don’t know if I don’t know if you guys have the same experience as dad’s in the hospital with a newborn uh over there as we have here but they give the dad the worst bed you can possibly a B it’s like this half so you got a bed no not really a bed but listen it’s like it’s it’s it’s terrible and your back is a mess for three or four days I say all this to say that might be the only thing that could slow Scotty down as if he had a bad experience with that and that bother him because but he could move his neck and he still managed to win there so yeah good point I mean look and you know the fact that it’s been what three months and he he missed a putt to force a playoff that’s the only time that crazy yeah it’s it’s unbelievable run he’s on it’s been a joy to watch and uh I’ll just give it away now for I’m picking him to win and I I really it’s not particularly close for me I think that um he’s as strong a favorite as you can imagine going back to maybe I don’t know say tiger in 09 around that time I mean it’s it’s it’s unbelievable what he’s been doing yeah really is hard to to pick holes in him and I’m kind of wondering why haven’t been all over him for the last I guess in my mind it we watched Scotty go around Augusta a year ago and tear it to pieces and not hold a p and you could see then that you know the core fit was so obvious whereas I guess the there’s an element here where where you you know you don’t know how he’s going to go Val that’s kind of me I guess clutching the straws like Nile um but it’s going to be a case maybe it comes down to the potent contest that I men now perfect yeah but even then that hasn’t been too bad recently anyway um we better move on we’ got loads to get through before we we um you we got to get through n picks as well which are coming up shortly got to talk about Brooks kepka though who is third on the grid 16 to one he is with a few firms including skybet who go eight places um you know Brooks is one of those know Justin where he’s won this event three times he won it last year if you were to price up britz kepka based on that alone then he might still remain value but if you were to price up britz kepka based on the golf that he plays consistently then he would be there’ probably be a zero at the end of his at the end of his price there like how do you assess someone’s chances who is just a totally different golfer when it comes to these events yeah and I think I said this before the Masters he’s a guy where you don’t even really take into account recent form on back in the day the PGA tour now live golf but to hear his quotes um when he won in Singapore saying that yeah I was really I was kind of embarrassed by the way I played The Master kind of L A fire under me I mean that’s got to give you even more reason to to believe in Brooks kka this week I I think I think back to a couple years ago uh John Rah ended up obviously winning the Masters but SC uh Brooks won the last live event um going into the Masters two years ago um at Orange County National outside of Orlando which is of course I’ve played with beer and friends it’s not exactly a turn test of golf but he showed that he was in good enough form to beat some of the the some of the better players in the world over there with that with that Victory and we didn’t know how much stock to put into it um I put a little bit into it now because look he he dang near nearly won that thing at Augusta National a couple years ago so um I don’t withhold credit or anything anymore at this point for for a player who wins a live tournament coming into a major championship look he’s he just hits a different gear when he gets to these things I know it’s it’s anecdotal and almost cliche at this point but he’s just a different guy when he gets to the major champion and you coupled that with the fact that this is going to be a place where you got to carry the ball a long way to find success um and look Brooks kepka is gonna be he’s justifiably really high on that board um based on what he’s done in the major championship so in this era he is I mean I think if you you pair back now to just since 2020 Scotty’s probably got the title but if you look over the last decade he’s clearly the the alpha performer in the game in major championships and you know like he’s had a spat of inconsist has seen some of these big events over the last couple of years but um he showed he’s still the man to beat when he gets to a PGA Championship last year at Oak Hill it’s worth it’s worth noting that as winning Singapore as well at santosa that’s on zoa grass and it could prove to be quite good preparation that event for those live guys so I know I have backed a couple of them anyway but I do think that could be better preparation than what we’ve seen re recently on the PJ T and is that sh I mean it it’s almost surprising that he’s pretty much the same price to win this as he was at Augusta um despite the fact that since then as you say he’s won in Singapore and he’s and he’s got a top 10 in Adelaide as well I mean would you be Keen to on him here n than than you were a couple well a month month or so ago I just think his pric is about right you know yeah uh I don’t think there’s much value in it uh obviously since the Masters Mel Roy’s improved he’s W twice so so there’s an element there which suggests that capus price should stay the same uh I think the market just has has the correct hold on them he interest plenty this week given his record in these type of events and on these courses so yeah he could easily go well and be there come Sunday afternoon how about John Ram who is you know trting a lot of attention given his price you know over double the price for Rory mroy this weekend he’s 20 to1 best price that’s a bet Victor they’re only a quarter of the five places you’re can probably get 16 to1 if you want the extra places with Sky bet bet 365 and the like there um what n it wasn’t a great um defense to put it mildly at austa and he still doesn’t look overly happy I wouldn’t say on the golf course right now yeah that was just the point that I was going to make it’s just it looks to me pure happiness and although I mentioned earlier about Max Homer drifting towards 100 to1 in the Masters uh before the off win only and I was kicking myself that I didn’t get on some of these golfers when they drift to Big prices whether they’re playing good golf or not or sometimes Auto bets hland is getting towards that direction where I think you know just 1 o of sunlight could could make him worth it bet and and there was a bit of sunlight there at the weekend as well same kind of a play to John Ram but I don’t think he’s gone to a big enough price yet to be honest he doesn’t look happy he doesn’t look content I think uh the amount of live events that he has played he should have won one already let’s get that clear and he hasn’t uh and he hasn’t come close in many you know he obviously been top 10 and planted them but he hasn’t been far at the towards the leaders on on the back nine of these events so I’m quite disappointed in what he’s shown and more than anything I think Ram could struggle when his head’s not there and I don’t think it’s here at the minute so H he’s an easy pass for me even at the odds Justin what do you what do you make R chances this weekend yeah I mean look he’s a guy you can tell uh his emotions he wears them very outwardly and it was Apparent at Augustin ashal that he was kind of frustrated with the state of whether it’s his decision he made or where his game was um he wasn’t he did he wasn’t a happy guy it didn’t seem like it and my question is just which which John ROM shows up um I think maybe you know maybe he sees what Brooks Kea did in Singapore and the way he responded saying that lit a fire under me and maybe it’s a brand new ROM that comes in and he’s got a different attitude coming into it but um until I see that going into the week I’m really interested to watch his press conference um before the before the championship starts that might give us a little bit more light because you know Rah has always been very forthright with the public with the media uh so it’s going to be interesting to see where his head’s at what head space he’s in um going into this Championship there’s still little flashes of him being John ROM though I know he hasn’t won but he leads the live tour in birdie average this year he’s high up in the metrics that they’ve made available publicly you know in terms of some of the underlying stats we don’t have a ton of them but you know what they’ve shown is that you know he’s still you know one of the better players on that tour I think he’s second on their points list this year despite not having won yet so yeah no to me I’m gonna pass on him simply because of what we saw at Augusta National but um he’s a really interesting case study going into the championship to see where his head’s at and what that attitude’s like coming into Val yeah indeed a couple more just to we should take off before we get into the picks um you mentioned Victor there um n and just to kind of continue on that on that line you know he is now um talking of of rah’s price being Unthinkable a while back Hof’s now best price 45 to one you’re getting 40 to one um 10 places with paty power like when does that become a bet because yeah I mean obviously his his touch around the greens um which he kind of discovered around the turn of the year when things were going so well for him has kind of deserted him but there were as you mentioned signs especially TI green and also his you know around the greens wasn’t too bad last weekend um when does he become a bet in your mind yeah well it was his best ball strike in performance in 2024 I think at Quil Hollow last week and uh he has been suffering in that department but not quite as badly as maybe you know his ball striking hasn’t been good all year but it hasn’t been a total disaster his short game definitely has deserted him uh in 2024 he he has been struggling most departments but that was a first sign last week at Quail Hollow and uh maybe it’ll just take another step and Stone before he he becomes a bat here in the next number of weeks but uh he certainly came on my radar and I was tempted this week uh after that effort at Quail Hollow I think if he gets towards I think he was did wasn’t he up there in day one at the Masters as well he quite scored well because I remember tweeting I remember making a tweet that you know a Victor Harin meme about you know uh getting the price about himself for the play so bad all year to get a price about himself for the Masters and as soon as it tweeted that it went sou for the rest of the event like but uh I do think uh all his talent Still Remains with him and I think uh he will get back to where he was and last week was a good sign so we’re around 40 to one mark with 10 places on offer it was tempting I have to say and what about Z Shuley Justin he was all the rage going into Augusta he put in a a pretty good performance that ever really challenged ing um it looked again like he was going to get over the line over the weekend I don’t you know a level par round on Sunday wasn’t great but you know when you consider what beat him um you can maybe forgive him a little bit would you still have concerns about his ability getting over the line yeah I’ve got a stat about Xander shafley that I think is really emblematic kind of where he is with the game right now um he has eight straight top 20 finishes in major championships longest active streak of any player that’s a fantastic that’s really hard to do it’s really impressive and in those eight events he has not finished better than typer I mean that’s kind of the perfect embodiment of where Xander is right now is that his his floor is so high he’s such a well-balanced player analytically statistically his approach to everything for about three and a half days and just that he just hasn’t been able to break through into the Winter Circle and I think you know that number about his consistency in the majors but not you know really truly being a contender I know at Lac at the US Open last year going into Sunday he had a shot and then he I think he left two in the bunker early on in that final round and uh kind of derailed him but he really that other than that in that run of consistently you know making the cut and being somewhat in the mix going into the weekend he just hasn’t been able to push it over the line I gotta see it at this point talented I do think he’s gonna break through and win a major championship at some point um but I would have loved to have seen I think my perspective of him changes rap completely diff is totally different if he has a different Sunday and is able to overtake Rory maroy at Quail Hollow but it’s just been more the same when these he’s gotten into these fights with these Elite guys on Sunday and whether it’s Scotty or Rory Scotty at the Players Championship Rory last week he hasn’t been able to get over the line no did you find him easy to leave off the list this week having back to him at Augusta yeah well we back him at 16 to one there places at Augusta and that’s like 12 14s now it’s slightly shorter Michel Roy’s improved sheffler hasn’t regressed cap has won so yeah I think he’s he’s quite easily passed over at that price uh even though you know he’s probably booked for another top 20 finish again but uh again disappointing just at the weekend but kind of like Justin I think it’s important not to put like too much of a negative narrative on that there because he he’s still beating the majority of fails every time he teas it up and eventually he he’s won plant already don’t forget it’s just it’s just a couple of years and and don’t forget CLE Justin Thomas Jordan SP they’re all in the same camp they haven’t won on the guts of a couple of years either so uh yeah s gets an awful lot of stick for that but I think it’ll change relatively soon and before we get onto your picks Nile what about ludvic aerg who we spoken about a little bit already who was second at Augusta in his first ever major he Then followed up with a bril a brilliant performance at Harbortown on a course he wouldn’t necessarily think we suit um he’s 18 to one going into this weekend with bet five in Sky which of course is is ey wateringly short generally for a player making just their second major start but I think that’s probably a fair case be made that there might be a bit of juice in it yeah everybody knows how much I love him and uh it’s important just to let the listeners know that I did put them up at 25 the one at the start of the year in January for this PGA so that’s the well not the only reason but he was the main reason why I was left off the week this this week because I’ve already got him covered and I’m quite happy to go him over the 25 to1 because going into 18 to1 now with the slight knee injury if any listeners haven’t heard he he pulled out last week uh with difficulty from his knee and the team said there was no pain in the knee but nevertheless reports from the course yesterday on practice was that he was holding the knee regularly during the first number of holes that he played and band them down to it and all so maybe it’s a bit more of a problem than uh what was initially thought last week so I’m happy to be on a 25 to1 I wouldn’t want to cash out now but I wouldn’t particularly like to be going in at 18 to1 uh off the back of this news about his knee how do you assess his chances Justin yeah my question is the knee as well I mean I thought initially going into the week maybe okay maybe he’s played a lot of golf and they’ve got a knee injury and may this is how he gets out of the um you know the the elevated event give him a little bit more rest going into the major championship but it looks looks like it was a real maybe a little bit of a real issue and something that got to take into account um that’s reallya the only reason to not like him going into the week in my opinion I mean the inexperience obviously is you throw it out the window with this guy whether it was going into the Ridder cup um having never played a major championship before or and playing so well or at the Masters obviously in his first major championship the only guy that could beat him is the guy that’s beating everyone on Earth every week in Scotty Sheffer so he’s got the kind of ball flight and ball strike ability that You’ would absolutely love at a venue like this or a US Open setup too um yeah it’s just the question with me is just that health of that knee and how restrictive is it going to be on a week where it’s going to be stop and start I guarantee you there’s going to be at least one day where you’re in finishing up a round the next day in terms of just the sheer size of the field and the weather we’re expecting and does that play into account too some long days for guys who’ve got some nagging injuries but yeah it’s really just the knee that’s a question for me a little bit just the nether question there um now let’s get on to your your selections your uh column went out live on odds cheer and on the app yesterday so these are out there and we we’ll package them together so the top two two points each we Max Homer at 30 to1 and two points each way Bryson Des shamber 28 to1 as we said two players that went very well in the last major what has you fancing their chances this time around yeah well Max home has overcome that you know the major negatives this last number of months now finishing 10 at H and then third at the Masters uh you know I don’t necessarily obviously we looked at a good performance a in a major for a stepping stone to the next one but more importantly I think being in the final group on Saturday at the Masters and then the penultimate group on Sunday at the Masters is absolutely massive uh that’s you in the heat of battle for two solid days at the year’s biggest major uh similar to mat Fitzpatrick was when he was in the final group at the a before winning the US Open next year these things can really really help uh not just a good finish but being in the final couple of groups over the weekend we know how long and straight is off the tea and uh the clutch putton as well I I’ve been quite Keen to get a couple of really clutch Putters on the staking plan this week and and Max H was one of them we’ve seen what he’s done in the rer in President’s Cup and uh I just think a a major win is on the way uh Bryson that you mentioned there obviously round one lead at austa uh not B chance as I said that it was the softest and easiest day of the week he will be suited by the rain here he’ll be suited by the golf course becoming longer because of the weather and uh I just think double the price of Brooks Capo was uh far too tempting uh for somebody who’s like three top 10 in his last six Majors he’s a regular feature on these major leaderboards now uh even since he went to live so yeah I just thought of of the two between him and capka the Shambo looked at oun more value and you’re a fan of well you think Bryson’s got a good chance going to this weekend as well Justin I do I want to go back to Nile’s Point that’s great about maxom in the pressure cooker and how I think sometimes when you’re looking and trying to make picks you see a third place finish in the previous major and you think oh this has got some value to it not all third place finishes are created equal there’s a big difference between being in the being being in pressure being you know part of the narrative for the entire Championship like Max hom was at the Masters and you know firing a Sunday 66 when your tea time was at 9:30 a.m and ending up uh at ending up 2023 Augusta I I so I love that point that n made um I’m keen on Bryson as well um you just look at where he’s had the most success in some of these major championships and these big long setups I think about when he won at Wing foot um he’s a guy who you know we always talk about his uh you know the distance off the te being a key thing for him but he hits the other clubs longer too right so these long par thres um are are going to be key this week they remind me a lot of Bay Hill um and he look he’s won at Bay Hill before um with those really long approach shots where approaches from 175 to 225 are really key so um I’m really high on Bryson this week and I love the comparison to Kea to me um there’s a lot of similarities between those two games um they’re past excess in major championships not quite equal but I do really love Bryson’s profile going on in this golf course and think he’s a really good value and then n moving back on to your staking plan again uh next on the list we’ve got Windam clock 1.5 Points each way at 40 to1 and draing nean Keeping the Faith with nean after Augusta 1.5 Points each way at 33 to1 yeah first of all Clark was one of the lucky ones who managed to get him at the US Open backed him at 60 to1 so I think what like from what happened there a non- major winner being 61 60 to1 for that US Open that he won we’re seeing 40 to one now with what everything that’s happened since I think he’s a bit of a forgotten man in this market it surprises me how how big of a price he is uh he must have cut up the Masters obviously but that was his debut there and we can definitely forgive him that third at the Harbor Town the following week I thought was really talented goes to show you how versatile a golfer win the Clark is H he obviously hits the ball on M and harbor toown just doesn’t suit uh golfers got notoriously Down The Years anyway uh so yeah I’m just surprised that he’s drifted the the 40 to one obviously finishing down the field and the Wales Fargo contributes to that too but he’s defending Champion there and you could almost forgive him that there too for you know it’s it’s difficult to defend and he’s still in the early throws of his career so uh long and straight off the T plays these demanding long golf courses very well as we seen second at Bay Hill ear on the near second at sass so first sumon in those last six starts two Runners up Saw Grass Bay Hill third at Harbor Town coming to one of these long major championship golf courses in fact the last one it was he won the US Open last year so God I’m just surprised how how big he’s gone 40 to1 when he was I think he was shorter than that for the Masters uh is Debut there as well deut ton struggle so he was the second one that I was quite happy to get in another really clutch putter down the stretch these golf tournaments uh I think it’d be a massive asset to Team USA in the in the team events we saw the way the putts that he hold when he won the S open especially when he got into trouble I think it was a par five where he hit it left and had the drop overshot the green got got down and two from then he he showed real uh guts uh when we’re in that US Open and I think everything that he’s shown since shown since just doesn’t add up to him being 40 to1 here and again I just didn’t want to forget about wacky nean my claims that when we last on this podcast that he was in the top five golfers in the world I still stick back uh I would like him to prove it on on the big stage on the in the majors uh top 25 the master didn’t disgrace himself obviously third at o and seventh in Singapore since uh obviously hits the ball on Mile which will help this week I’m just looking to get these guys on the St and plan to hit the ball for third and sixth uh in five appearances at the memorial another Jack Nicholas design which could prove a good form guide this week uh so yeah for just for someone who I consider just still at the top of the game I didn’t want to forget about him at the prices that I advertised yesterday 40 to one Justin what your thoughts on those two uh I love just thought this just struck me as now I was talking about windom’s high finishes at Bay Hill at the players at Harbortown who won all three of those golf tournaments yeah got sheer and who we been talking about is just Far and Away above everybody think about the perception we’d have of Windam Clark this season if it weren’t for that you know giant birdie making elephant in the corner over there who just keeps crushing everyone um it I just thought that was an interesting thing to come across uh yeah look as impressive as Scotty performing well at Harbortown was I was really impressed by wendam as well because it just doesn’t fit the profile of where he had had success before you know a totally unique different golf golf course it really speaks to his growth as a player um I I love that he’s always been since he got on tour a really good putter but his Strokes gain T to Green 2021 155 2022 130 28th last year he’s up to 15th now like this is a guy who is steadily improving and becoming more well well-rounded in his this game uh as it comes to Neeman I got to see it on the big stage you know to what n said about I got to see it in the big stage um 20 previous major championship starts he’s never finished in the top 15 I do think he’s one of the most talented players in the world though and that he will you know have that breakout week could it be this week absolutely on uh a softer Golf Course where length is going to be uh rewarded as we’ve talked about adium here um this could be conceivably the week but for me I’ve got to see it on the biggest stage before I invest any money in it but one player you have like look of in recent weeks Justin is benan who seems to have leared how to putt that’s terrifying Prospect for the rest of the world this is a man who is one of the best ball Strikers in the world year in year out has gotten to be really long off the tea which has been really interesting to see develop over the last several seasons and even more recently but been on lead the field last week at Wells Fargo in Strokes game putting a sentence I didn’t think was possible for me to form with my brain and say this is a guy who has really struggled with his putter throughout his career it’s what’s kept him from being a multiple time winner on the PGA tour he of course won that BMW championship years ago when he was so young um but he’s really intriguing to me this week because he’s a guy who has the distance and if he’s figured something out with his putter he could be a really sneaky good value this week at about how yeah benan is 60 to1 with a few firms going seven places there you’ve got uni bet um and a couple of others I didn’t think he was I thought number was a little higher it’s the price over here that puts you off I looking at going I would love to back B on but I just can’t bring myself to back them at those prices I wasn’t looking at the price when I said that he he was double that a week ago you know that’s the that’s thing he’s kind of well found in the market now but I’m still seeing a lot of people making a case for him now at the price he is so um yeah been two brilliant performances back Tob back coming into into the weekend and then a couple of darts big prices uh Nile make up your staking plan a point each way on batia at 125 to1 and0 five of a point each way on Taylor pendrith at 225 to1 yeah like one of the key trends in this PGA is having a win earlier on in the season now obviously it’s changed a bit since it moved to may but there’s still been a fa few since Cinema uh but you go down the years and the surprise winners of this event might not be so surprising to you know Freaks Like Us who love the game you know I mean Bradley in 2011 when he won the PGA had won earlier on in the season we Yang had won the Honda earlier on in the season in 2009 Rich beam when he won in 2002 had won the week before the international and David THS in 2001 had one earlier on that season as well so I don’t think it’s a bad play looking at everybody who’s won the PGA Tour finding huge prices on the exchanges and blah blah blah and back in a few actually B is the best one for me of the lot uh simply because his golf lately has just been absolutely tremendous uh second Strokes gain approach in Houston first at San Antonio second at harbort toown his IRS are in absolutely ridiculous form and this is now redundant especially from when I wrote it in my preview on Sunday evening in the Monday morning that from a true Strokes game perspective his win in Texas was the best of the year that has now been usurped by magalo uh at Quil Hollow but uh even Dy go considered uh his win at Texas better than Scotty sheffler’s win at the Masters and it’s not surprising seeing he beat mooy by nine shots that week he beat Fleetwood and matama or yeah Fleet rout matama by 12 he were in the top 10 as well it was a truly astonishing performance especially the way he managed to hang on because it looked like it was a forone conclusion at the weekend and Ma managing still to win that the way Danny McCarthy stayed with them maybe McCarthy’s as equally as ridiculous performance that week at going on the CM score and getting their playoff that week and Taylor pter obviously another one uh it took him a long time to get the victory but he won with a a far bit of help from B Co in the 72nd a couple of weeks ago uh but he’s really hot right now he followed up with the 10th uh top 10 of Quail Hollow and he’s got the perfect game for Val Hall to he hits the ball in absolute man so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix again whether tall order to win it obviously uh but I could definitely see him in the placing and another one he haven’t backed but along similar lines that you could back as well at Big prices triple figures as Jake knp now I B I backed him in Mexico when he won uh he was very nervous and steer during the up the nine holes got it together in the on the back nine and then he backed them again a couple of weeks ago when he was around the lead done exactly the same thing as what he did in Mexico got steer off the tea but he he couldn’t get it together uh he met too many fareways too costly it strange the way he hits the ball on Sundays really really strange because he looks like a Rolls-Royce from Thursday to Saturday and then turns up at Sunday in contention and the swing slows down it’s it’s a complete mess but nevertheless he performed well Tory Pines earlier on in the year as well another long Tough Golf Course so Jake knps another PJ tour winner to consider this week that I haven’t got on the St plan Jake nap 250 to1 that’s his IET who are eight places you can still get a little bit of 225 to bet Fred who also 10 places um which is completely out of line with the rest of the cheer grid so if you’re quick try and get that um and I’ll immediately trying to find a bet Fred account as we as we speak and uh a Baer 1252 pretty much across the board anyone else you want to give a positive mention to Justin I just want to ask if Nile is hacked into my laptop and is reading my notes because Jake nap is another name I have written down it goes back to that statistic the approach play from 175 to 225 he’s among the leaders in average proximity of the hole in that statistic this season um he’s been one of the best players in that regard so H you mentioned to the great finish at Tory Pines another difficult long golf course um and Taylor pendrith as well is a guy whose profile and we mentioned the help he got on that last hole to win uh from Ben Kohl’s right down the street from me here in mckenny Texas but he I mean look the profile he has for that Golf Course is perfect he’s a guy who hits it a I loved his inclusion on the President’s Cup team a couple years ago I thought he was going to have a breakout week he didn’t play that great that week but I just think that growing more and more familiar and comfortable in those experiences getting that Victory he’s a guy who’s a super talented ball Striker and I think there’s some value there I’m not going to pick him to win but I could think I could definitely see him finishing in the top 10 the form he shown um so he and Jake Napp are two of the guys I had circled as well oh and one other name we haven’t mentioned yet one other name we haven’t mentioned yet recent major champion who over the last three years in the majors second in Strokes gain putting third in Strokes gain approach fourth in Strokes gain total I know that the course doesn’t necessarily profile to fit Cameron Smith but the fact that we haven’t said his name yet is a little bit off-putting to me I think that he’s a little bit of an overlooked guy in terms of of just you know being on the live tour now maybe not having as much success um in terms of getting in the winter Circle this season as we thought he might um but he’s a guy that I think you can’t discount I know his price is probably way up there I’m not looking at it right now but um someone he’s worth a mention for sure Cameron Smith 50 to1 that’s a perfect spreadex and Sporting Index happy same price as Benny AR yeah just consider those those past major championship performances yeah exactly it’s definitely it’s definitely worth getting on board those PJ tour winners though at Big prices and because I know like when I mentioned the surprise winners down the years and even when Todd Hamilton won the open I’m pretty sure he won earlier on that year as well was it maybe the Honda or something on Honda that year yeah the surprise winners of these major championships aren’t so surprising really and I know if Jake knp wins at the weekend or a B wins my dad will text me going never heard of him you know what I mean but they’re they they’re they’re the types you need to be on for the for these surprise PJ tour winners so when there is a surprise one it’ll probably be less surprising than a lot of people think and I hadn’t thought about this now but we’re kind of due for one of those we’re kind of due for a guy to come out of nowhere and win a PGA Championship you think about all the wouldn’t be out of nowhere this is what ny’s saying he wouldn’t be out of nowhere it would be right no you know what I mean like my yeah but my buddy who’s been watching golf for three years saying I don’t know who this guy is that’s the out of nowhere it’s out of nowhere for us I had I had that with Brian Harmon last uh last July not me and then I had friends saying like who’s this guy I’m like you know come on you he’s been he’s been winning for 10 years now um but yeah maybe we’ll get it this time around and we’ll be able the said about that Open Championship the better we’re putting that into the deps of hell I I absolutely loved it thank you for those of us who were on it was great for everyone else in the world it was it was miserable but yeah we’ll see well fingers crossed uh We’ve at least mentioned the name of the winner um in this in this hourong show but thank you very much to Justin as ever for sharing his thoughts and thank you to Nile you can find Niles colum if you want to read up on his picks again on the odds cheer app or on the OD cheer website that’s up there um and yeah check out Justin providing all the great stats for for 21st group and unon SKU coverage over the course of the weekend as well uh thank you to you both hopefully we’ll chat again ahead of the next major coming up next month uh but until then if you are watching this or listening to this make sure you download the odd checker app you can find all those best prices bookie offers free bets and Niles tips amongst other tips to straight to the app every single day and week depending on the sport you’re looking at uh go well enjoy the weekend’s Golf and please do ensure that your gambling respons l