2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Best Bets, Odds, Placement Markets | LIV Singapore Bets

Pat Mayo, Sia Nejad & David Bieleski give their 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson picks with their Gold, Silver and Bronze Selections.

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INDEX

00:00 Intro
2:43 Gold
15:41 Weather
21:58 Underdog Entry
24:50 Silver
38:35 Bronze
47:02 Outright Picks

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enter the experience experience [Music] experience P Mayo experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience presented by Underdog fantasy use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now get yourself a match deposit of up to 100 bucks and hit the time codes for the underdog entry of the week that we’ll be putting through on this show and then I’ll have an updated one in the newsletter once we have a bit better gauge on how the weather is looking for Thursday reminder as well when the tea times are released on Tuesday afternoon that signals the opening of the pme classic on Underdog so go get your drafts in right now and best ball season is back for NFL the top 40 in best Ball Mania 5 this year win at least $50,000 so if you’re into NFL and you enjoy to draft use code Mayo Underdog fantasy and try to get your hands on the $1.5 million top prize but you become like 31st you’re doing pretty well so I recommend that you go do that now joining me for the Best Bets for the Byron Nelson this week or sorry the CJ cup Byron Nelson this week take a hike AT&T CJ cup you’re in so every single South Korean player is now obligated to play north of Dallas in mckin Texas at TPC Craig Ranch CA NAD David beesi both joining me on the line David uh what time is it where you’re at uh it’s just gone 10:2 a.m. um Pat so I can wish everybody a very good morning good evening and uh good night everywhere in the world is this how you ended up on Matthew paval at Tory Pines that you’re actually just from the future and you know these things I I get that a lot in when daily Sports in the Discord I I am often accused of owning a DeLorean and um traveling back in time every time I hit 88 mil hour um but there is one of the benefits of living in New Zealand other than being an AB absolutely stunning beautiful country is that we are in the future and um I can actually just tell you exactly what’s going to happen um approximately 18 hours from now see is that why H you have losing golf picks like me because we’re in the past we’re past people yeah we’re past people uh you know I’m I’m actually sorry I didn’t come with a last time I was on here Pat I I had a top ocean play but uh with David on here I don’t have it I feel a little embarrassed but uh I’m so happy to be on with David David is so incredibly sharp and he is from the future and I know that because he does pick some outrights just kind of out of nowhere and Matthew pavon was definitely one of them earlier this year well we’re here to talk about the CJ cup Byron Nelson maybe a live bet for live Singapore if you got one or Hell the Volvo China open if it’s something that you really want to dip your toe into the water and the best bets are just the Best Bets whatever the best bets are going to be where we can win some money is what we want to do this week so let’s start off with the gold picks I am going to lead us off and I bet Kevin you to win this tournament at 80 to1 he rates out basically the best of any stats that I’m looking at dude can’t putt to save his life so that’s going to be a problem if it ends up becoming a pure putting contest but ball striking wise there’s really outside of like Tom hogi and Keith Mitchell there’s really no one in this field who has been as good as him over the past three months or so off the tea in with his approaches so I’m just going to dip my toe into the water with Kevin youu here although I do have the outright I do think Dave the best bet for him is going to be top 20 at plus three 33 better 100 get 333 bucks I like it yeah um interesting leing out with Kevin Yu I like that very ball play never played at TPC Craig Ranch before so that’ll be interesting to see how he he interprets it but look it is it is a kind of um Golf Course where you do need to go low obviously with see winning totals around minus 25 in most instances as you mentioned at the top of the show we might put pay to that so um that’ll be very interesting to see how that that goes with um with scoring but yeah look the approach play is really really good for K and I think that’s a really key element um for his game at the moment and uh with this golf course that’s tended to be one of the better predictors of success you’ve got this kind of strange s of Fairways at um TFC Crow Grant we don’t often see that type of grass anywhere and it could be pretty polarizing for players it it tends to either let the ball sit up so some players love it and they they say it’s sort of like playing off a tea and you can get Flyers as well and so their approach plays really key if you can find some Carling form at some of those sour pway um courses how do you feel about Kevin U this week seea was he on your radar uh kind of I mean I played him I had a six for six lineup at the Zurich that had a real shot at an outright and CT pan and Kevin youu were on that they had a very disappointing Sunday I think the two of the teams I was really leaning on last week at the Zurich were those two and I think it was norlander and Luke list and neither of those teams I think they were like the two worst teams in the field actually on Sunday i’ I’ve liked Kevin you I mean I like him more sort of in the first round leader market and things like that kind of the one day markets maybe matchups and that’s only because of the putter that you mentioned I mean these are guys that I don’t know that can get hot for four rounds but I do know that really any golfer can get hot for one or two but I like the Kevin U play and I certainly like that number top 20 plus 333 um that that that uh that that’s a really good number on Kevin U do I think he’s going to be in the top 20 I think he’s probably going to slip right outside of it but again I like the number to probably bet it so you would just rather dip your toe into the top 30 market then as a guaranteed winner if he’s just going to miss out on the top 20 it’s funny you say that because my gold pick is a a top 30 play well let’s hear it all right it’s uh a nice professional transition Pat Mayo it’s Tom hogi I mean it feels like a little chalky because I know a lot of people like Tom hogi I wanted to play him in the top 20 Market but for me just conservatively I think I want the cushion at minus 110 at top 30 instead of the plus 150 of top 20 and I think everybody probably by this point in the weekend I know it’s only Tuesday Tom hogi has probably come across their ears or their eyes the guy is just really playing well especially with the putter that we talked about that some of these players uh lack but the approach play The Long iron play it’s all so good now off the te leaves a little bit to be desired you know the driving distance isn’t necessarily there but he makes up for it with the scoring with the putting and the approach play I think top 30 you know most of my plays on here are usually like plus money plays I really did want to make this a T20 um plus money play but I think Tom hogi inside the top 30 is a very very comfortable kind of cruise type of bet and I think Tom hogi is probably good for like a top 15 top 20 but I’ll take the T30 at basically close to even money David I was looking into hogi and he’s someone that I’ve been riding for a while now and he he cost me my top five at Heritage although you wouldn’t notice it by his t18 finish but when you take a quint Tipple bogy on the final hole tends to drop you down the leader board just a little bit but his approach play in general is a bit off the mark from where it was about six weeks ago because he had this amazing run to start the year basically starting at Pebble Beach he gained at least basically four strokes per tournament on approaches since we left Florida so you have Houston and you have the RBC Heritage and obviously they missed the cut last week him and MAV um at the Zurich but it’s been two strokes on approach Two Strokes on approach and it’s not like he’s getting it done around the greens it’s not like he’s getting it done off the tea to really enhance that his putter has been saving him the putter is still running really hot but I do worry about him just a little bit that if the irons aren’t as precise as they were he doesn’t really have the rest of the game to make up for it yeah I do take that point um I would say TPC Craig Ranch it does kind of take the driver out of hand a little bit like the of the doesn’t rate that highly for me when it comes to TPC Craig R was like if you can either be long or can be accurate Reeve a way you can kind of like ham you’ll find a way to to get the ball in play but the the approach play is really key for me one thing I’d point out with TBC Craig ranches there is a disproportionate number of shots that come from in that over 200 plus yards range um so you expect sort of five and a half to six shots on average to be um over 200 plus yards in this field um what Tom hogi is is third in that ranking so he rates up very very highly from over 200 plus yards I mean pretty much any category over 100 yards rates out very highly because we know that what he can do on approach so I do I do take your point it does look like there may have been a little bit of regression um in terms of the approach of late like he’s not gaining his kind of eight Strokes per tournament which um has kind of seem to be the the way that he’s been doing it the entire year so far um but the guys’s just been on an absolute tear I mean just just popping out to top 20s left right and Center at every single event that he’s played in and I do think that this is actually a pretty good course fit for him as well so as long as there isn’t anything too serious in terms of that regression I do really like that play um I have them on my outright card myself this week yeah I missed out on the good number I think on hogi I think he opened at 40 then he got bet down to 35 and the best number I’m seeing I think right now is 27 to one he does seem to be probably the most popular outright bet this week which is never really a good thing see you you never want to get on the chalk outright guy how often does that hit per year do you think once maybe twice I’m currently looking up Tom Hog’s outright because I think there’s a 33 to one still in the market at some some bigger books but to answer your qu I think it’s bmgm that’s what it was last night so I’m actually just double-checking that the the number hasn’t moved and as I scroll it has not moved it’s still plus 3,300 at bmgm so just an FYI there um you’re right I mean listen it’s it’s it’s it’s okay to play chalky guys when it’s the outright Market it’s DFS that we have to worry about that it is I’m just saying that just by and large I mean we already got OE everyone hit OE at Valero I mean how many Community wins can you have in one year Dave like like I said one or two maybe we got we got Fowler last year at Rocket mortgage that was one then I can’t remember another one yeah I mean fading the chalk in DFS is always a good play but it seems to go that way and Bing a little bit as well and and uh yeah some sometimes it is better to take that right I do take your point but look I I I do like Tom hog this week I think it’s really good course fit for him I I think the approach play is really key and it’s not the strongest field let’s be honest it really isn’t and um that plus 3300 number is really good and if you’re at some of the international books You’ got access to William Hill you can get eight places with that as well and I think that’s really good value that could be an interesting way to to take on Tom H this week do you do many of the uh the eight placement points on bets from lower in the board because Jeff and I always discuss this he just never plays placements I usually have a threshold of 50 60 to one I’ve even been giving up on that recently just you know why double my money if I’m going to hit an outright that I’d rather you know not tread water so much try to week to week that really capitalize when it comes through and then I’m just not betting as much every single week as well do you generally do the eight placement points on each of your bats yeah basically I I mean when you’ve got placement it it basically increases your expected value exponentially um as soon as you’re getting play money at inflated odd basically rewarding you for putting on the outright um the book makers are giving you a much inflated price compared to what you’re getting for a normal say top five top 10 um eight places can be a bit of a tricky one this year in particular some of the books um which I won’t name but some of them have really dropped down their odds when it comes to eight places versus five um so you can take a pretty big head on the win odds so you do need to shop your odds I’d say would be the key thing but in in general yes I I play each way bets um almost exclusively um really do recommend um taking that route I think does give you a massive agch especially in terms of the boost on the places and that keeps the the cash flow taking over while you’re you’re waiting for those outright hits and especially in a year like this where uh either Scotty Sheffer is winning or some outrageous guy at 3001 who hasn’t made a cut in like his last five tournaments and that’s kind of like how uh the start of 2024 has been so far um so if you’re at least cashing some of those places that keeps the the money in the cash flow coming in and while you’re waiting to hit another big winner seea number one ranked player in this field in proximity from Beyond 200 yard over the past 12 rounds can you name him jeez I would have thought it would have been Tom hogi I know David said he was in the like the two or three range but let me take another stab at it I mean Kevin Yu’s got to be up there number one uh looking at oh is he number one number one tied with Patrick Fishburn of all people Fishburn poor Patrick Fishburn he had his win last week Pat he he had it and then he uh he he clutched it away he was playing so well too and then the moment that they took the lead it just it was over for him yeah that was I mean you know you that was probably inevitable with with Rory and Shane Lowry knocking on the door there yeah I mean it could have been but if they had just parred 17 you make your easy Birdie on 18 and then you’re off to the races and there’s not even a playoff and you end up winning by one but Dave you still got a gold pick to give us hit me I doing yeah I’m gonna go the top 20 Market as well um with a European Alexander noren um look he’s got a fantastic record in in Texas he really loves it um in Texas he’s done it in multiple different courses um the weather in particular I think is very apping appealing for noren he does tend to play very well in the wind we’ve seen that in multiple tournaments previously both at the PJ tour Lael but also the DP World Tour it does look like there’s some volatile wind this this week in particular a bit of thunderstorms a bit of rain as well and I think that noren’s got the skills to handle all of that excellent over 200 yards the short M I think it’s going to be a real benefit if that weather does become a factor these players are going to be missing greens they got a lot of confidence in terms of getting up and down um look he’s coming in here in really hot form five consecutive top 20s and he’s played here twice he finished 21st and 12th and there only two starts so when I’m looking at a player at the top of the ball that’s kind of everything that I’m wanting I’m wanting someone who’s an excellent course fit who can handle whatever the weather’s going to be that week um he’s got great course history and great great performances at correlated courses as well so nor really takes all the mean you get him at plus 150 at bet 365 for a top 20 um for a guy who’s just finished in the top 20 for his last five consecutive starts to still be getting plus money on a top 20 seems very very generous for someone who absolutely loves Texas noren’s interesting because I I absolutely despise his outright odds SEO but in this market he’s kind of like the mid-tier Xander shafley when it comes to the top 10 and top 20 markets right now where he just seems like a lock to finish there yet somehow not sniff a win I agree I mean he’s certainly not somebody I mean when you look at his finishing positions and and the metrics behind them I mean he’s doing it in such a sustainable way obviously I know that’s a word we just kind of throw around a lot but I mean literally checking every box off the tea around the green uh putting approach all of that and I you know what’s so interesting about this tournament is we’re starting to realize that that the you know we might have some weather issues here and I going into this tournament you know a couple days ago when I started my research I really minimized around the green play and I wonder if if I need to maybe put a little bit more of a weight on that with potentially um some more misg greens some like a lack of Greens in regulation relative to what the expectation is so I I do think Alex noren kind of fits the mold regardless of the of what the weather patterns are and I got to say like I don’t think I’m I’m not betting Alex norin outright but I do think noren in the top 20 that type of Market is a perfect market for Alex norn you mentioned the weather so we should probably talk about it we’re still a bit too far out to make any of concrete judgments hell even when the tournament starts we’re probably still too far out to make any concrete judgments about how the forecast is going to go but right now from what I’m using I’m using the mcken Texas windfinder uh to take a look at Thursday through Sunday and the weekend looks absolutely horrible if they even if they get pushed into Monday it’s not going to look great but it looks like there’s a ton of rain coming on Sunday at the moment there also looks to be a lot of rain overnight Thursday into Friday into Friday morning so there could be tea times push back and even early on Thursday there could be rain as well it doesn’t seem like it’s going to be all that much to delay play and if it does get delayed it probably won’t be delayed that much as of right now based on what I’m seeing on Thursday but weirdly enough Saturday looks like the best day but all of the craziness in the forecast in terms of wind Dave looks like it’s not going to come until Friday and Thursday looks like it’s it’s a bit windy you know a constant of like 10 to 12 miles per hour with Gus maybe up to 20 at some points but generally in those mid teens that looks like the best that we’re going to get this week so does that really change your capping of this tournament if if you knew that that’s what it was going to be you look at it on you know Thursday morning when you wake up in future time and you still have three hours to go before this tournament starts and that’s what the forecast is telling you does it change your perspective on who you want to take this week it does a little bit yeah absolutely I I find with wether that um when when there is weather in Play books are just so slow to react to it honestly it is of the the easiest ways to get an edge over the bookmakers is to really now learn on the weather forecast and we will delay our selections a little bit um going into a tournament if we do since some volatile weather just to give us the best opportunity to really take advantage of any waves that that um might develop as a result of that especially in a full field event where there is going to uh be some big disparity between when those tea times are um I’m seeing thunderstorms throughout the whole week um as a chance so I I almost wanted to make my goal be that this would not be your full on that’ll be a 54 hole tournament if this uh weather forecast stays as it’s currently forecast um but yeah we’ll see in the next 24 to 48 hours re where it really settles down um at the moment it’s kind of looking like a Thursday p.m Friday AM might get a bit of an nede but um look it’s going to be really volatile whichever way it goes and yeah the the wind gusts I see sort of getting up to that 25 to um 30 kind of Mark um at stages as well with gust which is significant enough at a pretty exposed golf course so did you donate a lot off the Hop CA or were you waiting to see what the weather would actually tell us I didn’t donate a lot off the Hop the only the only bet I made off the Hop and I actually tweeted this out and it’s funny because I got a response from from uh our friend everybody’s friend here uh Jeff fineberg who was like he’s he’s on my wheel of losers but uh the bet I made right away was Thomas gri at 45 to1 and that was just because when I was doing my preliminary research I was like all right this guy the way he’s um the way the approach play can look the long iron play all of those things the scoring um it really looks good for him and we’ve seen Thomas dietre in 2024 compete in in at least two tournaments where he probably could have won them so with that in mind that was the only thing I made right away do you have any hot takes on dri Dave because it feels like he’s just never going to win it’s frustrating isn’t it yeah and so I mean a lot of what I do I originally grew up following an and working a few DP whe Tour tournaments um where I grew up in Dubai and so I I kind of feel like DP whe tour has been my natural home and I’ve had to progress into PGA Tour as my journey um in the golf industry is is carried on and um yeah dri has been incredibly frustrating because you think of how close he’s come to winning some of these PGA Tour tournaments let alone those DP World Tour tournaments where those fields are a lot weaker you can see the clear evident class of this player against the rest of the field and just consistently never been able to get across the line had the the same situation with them very recently at the corales Pana last year where he uh managed to throw away Victory finished eth looked like it was his prime opportunity and um just Abu crumbled on the Sunday which has become the the Ry for him so uh he’s he’s a model darling for me he’s always going to rate really well he’s always going to look like a really good bit um at at pretty much any number um and yeah I’ll probably fall for it again and again because he does ride out so well I I do I think it’s if it’s really difficult to win a golf tournament is really difficult and we do perhaps put too much pressure in these guys in our expectations we get burn too much and form these sort of preconceived ideas but it does seem like with the tree that particularly is performance on Sundays when he is in contention has always left a little bit lacking hey look maybe he just needs to find the right partner in a team for for mat C because Lowry keeps not getting it done on Sunday then all of a sudden you pair him with Rory he’s a winner again well that’s right and D tree with McIntyre last week was pretty good I mean that was a that was a T8 finish and they were they were Cruising Into Sunday you know probably with their sights on a T5 finish so again this is one of those watered down tournaments like if you look at the top and you know I I I don’t know if any of our gold picks are going to concern like Jordan speed or Jason day or will zures or Tom Kim but I’m not saying they’re not rightfully at the top of the board but this is not a tournament with Scotty sheffler and it’s really not a tournament with people like Xander or Patrick kley where we really have to worry about one of these top guys definitely putting their stamp on the tournament I think it leaves room for guys like Thomas dietry or guys we’re going to bring up later on in the show that can actually kind of go into this tournament or even go into Sunday not feeling particularly intimidated for one of two reasons one is because those guys that I mentioned that are at the top of the board aren’t actually there on Sunday and two if they are there I just don’t think they they operate in a way that is going to be intimidating to the likes of a Thomas dietre as I’ve told you before use code Mayo at Underdog fantasy right now if you want to get a deposit match of up to 100 bucks so deposit 100 get a 100 already doubling your money so big winner right there so hopefully we can chuck on to that this week with a Thursday entry a two Banger pays 3 to one Jordan Speed higher than 67 Strokes so if he goes to 66 that means he has to be 500 for the day we’ve seen speed just blow up enough it does worry me a little bit that it’s in Texas but we did talk about the weather with CA and David that maybe it’s not as wet as we think but a little bit windier and just speed’s going to make a double bogey somewhere on this course and if he does that it’s going to be hard to shoot five under for the day so we’ll take higher on 67 Strokes for him and I’ll go higher on will zalatoris who I like him at Harder courses at a birdie Fest can he catch lightning in a bottle on the greens yeah of course that he can and he can have one of these super low rounds especially with his proximity from Beyond 200 yards and the way that he can beat up on Power fivs and even the shorter power fours but we’ve just seen it enough times that if he isn’t completely clicking with his irons and giving himself enough chances inside of 10 ft then he’s just not going to make enough birdies in order to breach 67 and a half Strokes so we’ll take higher on will alot Tores 67 and a half Strokes higher on Jordan Speed 67 strokes and boom hopefully we can double your money with the match deposit and then triple your money again with a winner on Thursday and continue to roll that for again the pat Mayo classic is open as of the tea time release Tuesday afternoon so go in and get your drafts going because it fills up very quickly okay back to the show the pat Mayo experience is sponsored by better help sometimes you need to get something off your chest Lord knows I do and one of the biggest things that that can cause is Big stressors in our life whether they’re big or they’re small bottling it all up can really start to affect us very negative negatively and therapy is a safe space to get things off your chest and figure out how to work through whatever’s weighing you down and it’s helpful for learning positive coping skills and how to set boundaries and really start to affect your life in a positive way and it might even be some stuff that you’re not even really thinking about that you can unlock and really start to improve your life for the better so if you’re thinking about starting therapy give better help a try it’s entirely online designed to be convenient flexible and suited to your schedule just fill out a brief questionnaire to get matched with a licensed therapist and switch therapist at any time for no additional charge if you’re not liking it so get it off your chest with betterhelp visit betterhelp.com Pat Mayo today and get 10% off your first month that’s better help hp.com patmo let’s move to the silver selections for the week I originally had Andrew Novak in this spot you know this is a Novak Nation type of show top 30 plus 230 I mean I’ll probably still end up betting that anyway but I did want to include live into this a little bit where i’ I’ve done more research on Liv than I think that I haven’t done so much in the past that in Singapore it’s actually a course where we do have some data points because it’s hosted the Asian tour and DP World Tour since 2005 and Sergio just kind of cleans up at this track he won it in 2018 he was fourth I believe or eighth sorry in 2019 19 he was 11th in 2017 he lost in a playoff to Taylor G in the first round of Liv a year ago he’s plus 160 to come inside the top 10 at Liv Singapore see I don’t know how much live research you did but this is a really cool course to look at optically I don’t know how much of the tournament I’m actually going to watch but I it is very visually striking you know what I haven’t done any research on Liv uh really in general to be honest with you and I haven’t watched much of it partly because I don’t know how watch much of it I will say this do I is it YouTube still I mean okay because I I thought they changed that and I wasn’t 100% sure is it still YouTube like I I for in Canada it is I think worldwide it is maybe it’s not in America maybe you need to have the CW to watch it in America which sure but yeah I can just like scroll YouTube and just check it on in the background yeah I think in America it’s different to be H I think it used to be YouTube and now it’s something else uh with that said I do know Sergio has been playing like pretty well lately uh I mean I know he was a pick for some people a couple of weeks ago not at Adelaide but maybe the the event before that so uh listen I don’t have any input when it comes to that but Sergio certainly sounds good to me what was that number you had on him uh plus 160 to come inside the top 10 he’s 20 to1 to win but I bet cam Smith to win just because Sergio continues to not get it done he lost to bur Easter after raal in the playoff he had like a decent day one at the Masters then completely imploded when everyone else did on the Friday not a great week in Adelaide last week but this this course Dave just seems to be something that fits his eye and sometimes guys continuously go back to a course and he’s the one who has the most experience at the Singapore course you must be pretty familiar with the course though from the Asian tour and DP World Tour days though yeah look International I mean you you’re right in saying that one of the very few courses that we get on on live that uh we’ve actually had high-profile professional golf tournaments had before which is actually really helpful if you are handicapping live I mean unfortunately for me live gol is still catching up in terms when it comes to data that’s really the big issue when it comes to to betting I use a lot of Strokes gain in my analysis I mean let’s put it this way live golf didn’t have a Leaderboard on their website when they launched their first tournament they completely forgot that having a leaderboard was a good idea for a golf tournament so we knew who was winning um so we’ve started to get some like greens of Regulation and stuff like that but St game looks like it’s still coming and by the time that stries gain here it’s probably merged with PGA Tour and live golf doesn’t exist anymore and it’s all just one big conglomerate from then on so um yeah look I I do really like that Sergio Garcia play though I think that’s that’s pretty sharp um it it is a good spot from um I mean we look at the live golf field right top 10 um you do have to take into account there’s a lot of players um in that that uh field that just are not going to be in the top 10 whatsoever so I do like that number I think that’s a that’s a sharp play yeah I I was going to do Scott Vincent top 20 at 2 to one but I know his hair might get in his eyes and that might not work out too well he was top five at this venue last year and it seems to be a place where he’s played really well throughout time that that’s always something that I always wonder about cuz they’re traveling around the world Dave that the guys that have had a lot of experience on the Asian tour you do see them pop up in the Asian swing during Liv and I mean we’ve even seen that uh time over time on the DP World Tour as well although this is the first like really enhanced Asian swing that they’ve been doing in a while where they going to Japan and then China that is there something about these courses something about these greens something about the layout that just strikingly different than what they would see mainly in Europe or South Africa or Dubai like what sets these courses apart do you think um I would get I’d say a couple things the grass types for starter you get these like really kind of sticky Z either zoyer grasses or paspalum or different grass types in those Asian countries often there’s um there’s ocean nearby as well where paspalum is like a really sturdy grass can survive it’s got very high salt tolerance and um so it’s it’s much better in those coastal regions as well it’s it’s also just extremely hot and humid in majority of those countries it’s very tropical um so you get the like no matter what it’s very difficult to kind of dry out those greens uh it becomes very um moist basically and they they tend to play a little bit slower and a bit softer as well so yeah there’s a couple conditions things and and just the the fact as you mentioned of of traveling kind of some of these long distances but I I think that’s the biggest strength actually with live and that’s something that they should be leaning into bit more I think that when they when they try and compete with PGA Tour on PGA tour’s home stomping ground in the states they they really struggle especially the fact that they haven’t got some of these iconic golf courses that the PTA tour um has I mean there there’s very few names in the world of golf that actually move the needle um for the general public but there are golf courses that do places like PE Beach and T Pines where the the armchair fan will come back and watch and they they don’t actually necessarily mind who’s winning they want to see that iconic golf course and I think that’s a bit of a struggle for for live particularly in the States but looking these places like Australia where they’ve got the huge following they’re really starved of content for um really high class professional golf that’s something that Liv should really be leaning into um making sure that they’re having all of those spots where uh where they’re not getting that same sort of coverage uh for the golf tournament so I think that’s where where live golf could potentially lean and hey who knows maybe we get a live New Zealand sometime and get to see some Top Class professionals down here although where I live P pumu we actually had the New Zealand open here and that was the one year where Steve Williams managed to convince T Woods to come down and play um at my local here uh in New Zealand at the New Zealand open which he of course won in TR the field but there was a deal with Steve Williams that he was going to um stay on Tiger Wood’s bag as long as he came play the New Zealand open at least once are are you surprised that Liv didn’t end up making a New Zealand stop because I was shocked they didn’t end up doing like two or three Australian stops that it does seem to be in your neck of the world that they they are St for like the top end golfers to come down because golf does seem to be incredibly popular that it just seemed very logical to me if they’re going to do live Adela you might as well do new live New Zealand since you have all your stuff down there anyway it seems like it’d be very expensive to ship all the stuff all the equipment get the golfers down there that if you’re going to be in that part of the world you might as well capitalize on it yeah for sure I I hope it’s something that they consider in the future I think it’ be a great option for them I mean I I think they they must be considering an extra event in Australia that’s an absolute no-brainer especially if they could get an iconic course like Victoria golf club or Royal Melbourne um something in the Melbourne sbar region would be really cool um and get a high class Golf Tournament down there and then um adding something in New Zealand as well because yeah as you said I mean look um we’ve got to think of new ways to be sustainable especially with sending these these golfers around the world who getting paid millions of dollars and if we can limit some of that travel time and be a bit more smart of how we’re scheduling these tournaments you know get into January February and when our summer is sort of coming in to form and play some of these golf golf courses down here in in Australia and New Zealand I mean in New Zealand we’ve got more the highest number of golf courses per capita of anywhere in the world so there’s plenty of options of really high class golf courses where they could come and play and I think it’ be a fantastic option for them to consider but yeah like untou untouched Market that they could really tap into and I think that’s the only way that I’d see Li sort of being commercial successful in the long two so Sergio top 10 plus 160 is my silver pick CIA what is yours well I kind of teased it already I mean it was going to be I’ll say this it was going to be Adam shank top 30 at plus 110 I actually changed it before uh we went on to Thomas dietry at plus 115 I partly changed it well for two reasons one I wanted to have a Tom dietry pick uh since I had him as an outright but two because I felt kind of egged on by fineberg who was like he’s on my wheel of losers I can’t wait to see how Pat reacts to it and again think this is a good course fit for Thomas D Tree for all the reasons I said earlier uh namely driving distance um the the ability to birdie birdie better certainly uh there the long iron play pretty good as well I love what he’s doing with the putter ball striking could be better but all in all I think a top 30 is a very comfortable play at plus 115 for Thomas dri all right so dri plus 115 if you go to Fantasy National right now that’s where I’m getting all my numbers from fantasy national.com Mayo get you access to the new leaderboard app which is the only leaderboard app you’re probably ever going to want to use it’s much better than the PGA Tours app I’ll tell you that much right now and if you have iOS or Android you can pick that up or you can go in and use some of our new filters and I sorted by Texas only the state of Texas rounds and to kind of back up your point from earlier uh Dave about Alex noran over the past 24 rounds the top 10 players on in the field in Strokes gain total in Texas are Jordan number one Alex noren number two Matt coocher mck Hughes see Kim Steven Jagger Sam Stevens Daniel Berger Adam Scott and Aaron Ry factor into the top of the list uh do you put any context into where everything is going on like do you think that a California history or a Florida history or a Texas history and Performing well over and over in certain locations does lead you down the right path or do you think it’s a bit noisy yeah I do think it’s an interesting way that you can can look at it I mean we we won’t go have got to be comfortable with their climbs and where they where they’re located especially guys who have got links to Texas I mean look Valero Texas open for example has just got such history and Legacy in the game it’s been uh running for over 100 years and you find those guys have got a lot of Pride when it comes to that state as well so I do think there’s some pretty strong links and more than anything I would just say that that you tend to get the same sort of putting surfaces time tend to get the same sort of weather it’s a place that they’re comfortable with and all of that can make the difference and game that can be um be separated by unes at times do you have a silver pick I’m sure you do I do indeed yeah and uh so I’m going to take on the defending champion in in a matchup here I’m going to take uh Benny an over Jason day at plus 100 on DraftKings um look probably a little bit Brave taking on a defending champ but Jason day doesn’t look to be in the best of touch he’s lost on approach for five straight now um so that’s slight concern for him and outside that win I mean finished 54th and missed the cut here so I wouldn’t say it’s necessarily the greatest fit on planet Earth for Jason day and Ban’s just been a different beast in 2024 we’ve seen him Elevate his game to such a high level the approach play is excellent he really excels over 200 plus yards which is a key metric for me this week and he’s played here once and finished 14th so happy to get plus money on benan over Jason dve so I was looking at the Jason dayve markets because I’m kind of with you which is going to make a really interesting conversation I’m going to have with Tambo on the draftking show tomorrow roia about cuz I don’t think anyone’s going to play Jason day I mean why would you I mean David just kind of laid it out he’s lost on approach and five straight yes he’s the defending Champion but he was in much better form this time last year it just seemed like he was peaking towards a win and then he finally got it and then he kind of fell off of a cliff until now so I was looking at just overall on bet 365 you can go in and you know you can play the make the cut Market what are they going to come what’s the top Australian Market or you can just go finishing position 29 or worse is minus 120 so you don’t even need him to miss the cut I mean you could bet him to miss the cut at plus 240 which doesn’t actually seem like that bad of a bet to me but day over under 28 and a half place in this tournament C what do you think I’m pretty shocked that that number is minus 120 I mean again to your point you’d think the defending Champion would be that would be a a different number listen I’m not invest Jason day but but as the defending like listen I mean the he hasn’t been horrible the approach play has been bad the off the te game has been a little checkered but he’s been really hot with the Putter and anytime somebody’s really hot with the putter on a very consistent basis I mean I’m looking at it now we’re talking about five in a row and like appreciable gains on each one I mean if I had to bet that I would say he’d probably finish inside the top 29 uh but he’s certainly not somebody that that I plan on I’m not necessarily going to Target him in matchups but he’s certainly not Someday I’m planning on playing in DFS or or playing in the the finishing position Market yeah well it’s always interesting because you have to most people just kind of listen I I’m guilty of this as well sometimes just looking at the outright market and moving on from that but if it’s going to be 28 a half as his finishing position if you wanted to bet him let’s say top 30 it’s minus 115 so you’re probably not best playing him under TW 28 and a half you can get an extra place and a half in terms of the leaderboard and you actually pay less Vig on the bet so trying to compare markets even on the same site telling you the same thing is always going to be essential in looking for this and just saving yourself 10 cents on every on every dollar here every dollar there that stuff is going to add up over time so always scan the markets looking for those things bronze picks seea I’ll let you lead off on the bronze yeah so I waffled on this one too and I just want I want to put out full disclosure I had one pick and then I changed it but the reason I’m even bringing it up is because the pick that I was going to have involves Ben on the thing that really frightens me about Ben on is the Putter and again I’m not a guy that really emphasizes the putter tournament to tournament but in this tournament with with a lot of scoring probably involved here at least that’s what we think um you know the putter is certainly something that that I’m taking an extra look at I I was going to come with my bronze pick has been on plus 170 in a tournament three ball over Sun JM and Tom Kim I still might bet that however my bronze pick I like this a little bit better and it makes sense right because this one’s going to be minus 120 Tom Kim minus 120 over Sun JM and this is more of a ating Sun JM than it is a pro Tom Kim sentiment pick here but Tom Kim is rounding into form at least it looks like a little bit certainly relative to where he was one or two months ago and what I’m looking at from Sun JM other than the fact that he has hasn’t actually played at TPC Craig Ranch where Tom Kim has over the last two years with I believe a 34th and a 17th Place finish sunjay like the approach play isn’t there and with Tom Kim like we can see him start to come into form but I don’t think sunj is going to have a very good tournament so again this is more of a fade of sunj more than again a play on Tom Kim but I think minus 120 is a very good number how do you feel about sunj and Tom Kim really right now David because we saw Tom Kim return from whatever injury he had at the Players he gained Strokes on approach actually a bunch at the RBC Heritage but lost a ton off the tea which is really odd for him maybe it was going up against the very best players but you think on an accuracy driven course that Tom Kim would have actually gained a bunch of Strokes where when you take a look at the numbers from the Heritage for sunj it was the exact opposite he kind of gained everywhere outside of approach which has really been as Achilles heel we just spoke about day how he’s been losing on approach sunj is no different basically outside of century so far to kick off the year sunj has been pretty poor with his iron play yeah and it was really interesting because at the century he looks it looks awesome like he played great at Plantation at the beginning of the year and then just AB fell off a cliff after that and uh yeah it it it’s pretty concerning what we’ seen from Sanjay the moment it’s not necessarily uh what we’d expect from him we know that he’s got Oodles of talent I mean the main thing that surprised me with sunj is just how young he is like that still surprises me to this day because he boost on the scene um with obviously the performance of the Masters particularly was pretty iconic for him um but the guy’s only 26 like I mean it just feels like sunj is like at least 33 you know what I mean and so he he’s he’s uh incredibly young still got plenty of time ahead of him but not not what we’ really wanted to see from him um I I really like this matchup that that se’s come out with um I think Tom Kim’s starting to round to a bit of form I did have some pretty deep concerns with Tom Kim not going to lie um earlier this year he he looked like he’d started the year and and the main thing that was concerning is he completely lost his Putter and and for him that’s such a fundamental part of his game is like his his ability to just drain parts from any which corner of the green right so uh he went from a year where he was sort of consistently gaining four or five Strokes putting to losing uh with the putter very very consistently for for the first three months and I put out on my Twitter I sort of did a poll of whether we thought Tomkins putter was completely broken or not um just quietly because nobody seemed to be talking about it and uh it looks like he’s maybe started to Che the corner I mean out of his uh his last seven tournaments he’s gained putting in four of them and then most recently the obsy Heritage he he had a very good putting week what I would say I guess with how he Heritage just as like a div Advocate is that they small greens so you haven’t got too much like scope in terms of like having to make some really big puts and that might test it again a little bit but uh yeah look I I think that it’s a better fit for him perhaps than than Sun JM driver gets taken a little bit out of your hand at TPC Craig R we all know what an asset that is for sun jm’s game being both long and accurate off the te and for Tom Kim that P in the approach play looks to be really good um of late okay bronze pick from you David yeah so I mean look at golfer that we’ve actually already talking about Tom hogi uh for me in a matchup Over Steven Jagger so bit Brave with my last pick um taking benan over Jason day although we didn’t mention that the malbon pants for Jason day are really going to weigh him down if any any rain comes in um those those massive um massive pants will hold on back for sure um so I’ve got that going for me but now a little bit Brave Taking Tom hogi Over Steven Jager the only guy to beat Scotty sheer in the last five tournaments um what what I would say with it is that the driver has mitigated a little bit of this venue I think that’s a huge huge strength when it comes to Steven Jager uh that gets taken out of hand a little bit and Tom hogi as I’ve mentioned previously um already on this show is really striping on approach jager’s obviously had that emotional Victory recently is he going to be able to sustain that momentum or is that kind of a reassessment point of what his next goals are um in terms of his progression on the PGA tour where’s Tom hogi I think is really time great to go out there and get that win so quite happy to to take Tom hogi Over Steven y okay so my bronze pick I’m going to the very bottom of this and I did bet this guy outright with the eight placement points but I think the top 40 Market is probably the the better or even if you can find a make the cut Market although he might be too far down the board to actually be listed in the two make the cut Market but I’ve been tracking it for a while now and lonto Griffin’s ball striking has actually been very very good over the past six weeks or so and the putter has not cooperated whatsoever the chipping also a real problem he finally did crack the top 40 marker in Puerto Rico or sorry in Dominican Republic two weeks ago he ended up coming t36 uh after shooting one over in the first round then rallied back over the next three days but take a look at what he’s done in the Byron Elson in the past at this course you know he’s only played at the one time he was t-51 but he did gain Strokes on the green now he has hasn’t gained Strokes putting since let’s take a look at this here the farmers in February so that’s bad news but the ball striking especially the approach play is ticking up you he’s gained over four strokes on approach in three of his past four he’s gaining off the T if he can keep that going and just break even with the field in terms of the Putter and this is a guy who used to be a really good on the greens and all of a sudden it just kind of flicked it’s almost like you mentioned with sunjay where he was consistently gaining on the greens and then something happened and all of a sudden he was just in a rut hopefully he can pull himself out of it this week and even if he doesn’t if the ball striking keeps up I think that lonto can be relatively competitive here in the ball striking market and finish top 15 in the field with that if he can do that I think he can come Top 40 on the leaderboard and you can get that for a handy price ties included with plus 210 did you think you would hear the name lantto Griffin seea I didn’t I don’t hate it you know I you know I look at the stat profile and I feel like I mean maybe this is a bad comp but a poor man’s Keith Mitchell like getting it done with the ball striking but can be a complete disaster with the short game I don’t hate it again I think this is a tournament where you’re looking for scoring where I do fear the putter but like listen that there are going to be times where he’s only going to lose moderately with the Putter and given how the ball striking looks I totally get I think there’s a lot of fun guys down the board that like really could do well here and I think lonto Griffin’s certainly one of them uh did you have any takes on lonto Griffin or is he just a complete cross out for you Dave no I think that’s a really interesting uh Mark to tap a look at especially at the number um probably prefer in the the make Miss cut um Market just given the weather and there be bit volatility but look I think that you’re you’re perhaps on to something there Pat like he’s he’s really gaining on approach um off late looks to have turned a real corner there we all know that that tends to be a bit more consist consistent a bit more sticky for players that when they find something with their long game tends to stick around for a little bit longer and yeah look he’s he’s played here once in gain strikes putting back in 2022 so he did at least like the greens the one fun that he has played here so yeah look I I think that you potentially on to something especially I think that’s a very generous number for the top 40 it’s a nice find let’s talk about outright I’ll have my final bet in the newsletter which you can subscribe to for free down in the description right now or on the Mayo media substack on Wednesday evening I’ll talk them through with Tambo on Wednesday show but I want to get a sense of where you guys are at so is it just dri for you CA right now it it is right now but but I am going to probably pick up on that Tom hogi number at at 33 or even if I get it at 30 honestly even at 28 to1 I think that’s reasonable I’m speaking for other people who might not have the 33 to1 Market uh I am definitely going to be only betting though this is going to be one of those tournaments where I’m not really going to be taking a favorite so I’m going to be speculating in that 25 to 50 to1 Market uh Adam shank was one of those guys when he was at 55 to1 I was going to consider that now that he’s sort of been bet down I feel like I I I missed the number and frankly I don’t think he’s going to win the tournament I think Keith Mitchell and Tom hogi are probably going even though Keith Mitchell can have some issues with the putter I think it’s probably going to be a shorter card I’ll probably have some live bets in play but I would say by the end of the day or like after this show it’s going to be just three it’s gonna be Tom hogi Keith Mitchell and Thomas dietr uh I actually did bet Adam shank at 55 to1 fineberg sold me on that on the Monday show so he is like the the EST odds of anyone on my card right now because I don’t know what to do with the top and I don’t know if I do want to take that plunge on hogi even if it is 30 seems pretty steep for Tom hogi for a guy who has one career win and just consistently blows it anytime that he gets in contention David where are you looking with your outright so far yeah so so I really like Tom hogi I’ve got him at 33s um with eight places but you can get him a be at 365 with five places um at 33s as well so I think he’s he’s a good I think that he has got a chance here to to Really Stampers mark on what he’s been doing in the game recently and another player I’ve already mentioned Alex noren um I’ve got him at 23s again with uh eight places to win here obviously the the the Texas form is just awesome for Alex noren think this is a golf course that’s really going to fit in the weather is actually really what appeals for me as well I think that that adds an extra element to his game that he can really um excel at the top of the market here all right that will do it on the pat Mayo experience code Mayo at Underdog fantasy will get you a deposit match of up to $100 and you have the play that we have earlier in the show and you’ll have the one that you have in the newsletter and I think Kenny and Byron gave one out as well on the fantasy golf degenerate show so David what do you have for Content this week and tell everyone where both they can find your content and where they can find you yes a busy week I’m in covering the the Volvo China open and uh the CJ cup Byron Nelson probably the worst name tourn that’s ever existed but here we are um and so yeah look I’ll be covering both of those tournaments uh this week over at wind daily Sports uh you can find me on Twitter at Deep dive golf uh we got some great promos out at the moment in terms of um our profit loss it’s been pretty awesome last few years so just come over have a look see what we’re all about um would’ love to have some more people in the community because uh yeah we’ve got a great uh great base over there and uh it’s a lot of fun see you same thing for you where can they find you and what are you doing this week yeah you can find me at wi daily Sports as well me and David usually uh in the Discord before the tournament uh talking about some DFS plays and of course some uh some betting plays but also of course on Sportsline I’m hosting the early Edge uh every single morning uh that’s on the Sportsline YouTube channel every single morning at 10 o’clock in the morning Monday through Friday then of course if you’re in the DC Maryland Virginia area uh you can find me on Monumental Sports Network on a show called by the book where me and me McDonald have a sports betting show so that’s uh that’s fun as well but honestly the best way to find me just follow me on Twitter at CN that will do it for me at thepme on Twitter fantasy national.com Mayo to get yourself 20% off all the stats all the tools all the Sims Plus the brand new leaderboard app which is just included in the membership so go get that right now if you haven’t got it code Mayo at Underdog and the newsletter completely free smash the like and sub to the channel while you’re here as well I will see you next time B experience experience and