Welcome to the Stephie Smalls Show, your go-to source for all things golf betting! In this episode, hosted by the fantastic Stephie Smalls, we have a special guest, Sam Wagman, joining us to discuss and analyze the upcoming Valspar Championship 2024.
Get ready for some exciting insights as we dive into our betting picks and PGA predictions for this prestigious event. We’ll be looking at some of the top contenders, including Xander Schauffele, Brian Harmon, Nick Taylor, Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Eric Cole, Adam Hadwin, and Jordan Spieth.
Join us as we break down their recent performances, course history, and current form to give you the best possible golf picks for the Valspar Championship. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just getting into golf betting, this episode has something for everyone. Don’t miss out on our expert analysis and predictions to help you make informed decisions on your bets. Tune in now and let’s get ready for an exciting week of golf! #golfbetting #golfpicks #pgapicks
[Music]
are you
[Music]
ready it’s time to talk about valpar
joining me is Sam Wagman you might know
him because he’s on the show every
single week Sam how’s it going
doing well doing well um it’s been tough
for betting golf lately it’s it’s it’s
been uh it’s now three straight weeks
that I’ve had an outright in the final
pairing that hasn’t
won it’s it’s pretty bad but I
definitely nailed the players from like
a prediction standpoint I had wendam I
had Xander top 20 I had a lot of other
guys top 20 I had Rory first round
leader but no outrights so got to change
that this week yeah Xander top 10 every
single week has been extremely
profitable so has Scotty top five didn’t
have Scotty outright wish I had Scotty
outright um luckily for everyone know
Scotty this week as the Florida swing
continues on but I can still get odds on
him right like I can still get odds on
him to win somehow Scotty’s still gonna
win even though he’s not playing he’s
still gonna win the favorite this week
is Xander plus 800 not sure if that’s
moved since I looked he’s off another
blown lead thoughts on Xander here uh I
feel like as much he’s going to win
eventually I just don’t know how many
years or [ __ ] tournaments it’s going
to take is he because this is now I’m
I’m trying to remember the exact stat um
I want to say it is 16 final pairings
since 2020 for him and he’s won two of
them and I don’t think either of them
you know outside of the Tour
Championship the other one wasn’t
high-profile tournament so it’s starting
to get a little freaky for Xander I
think at this point like is he going to
take that step that you know everyone’s
been saying he’s going to take for the
last three years I’m not so sure anymore
I don’t think he’s got that killer
instinct yeah I don’t know what it is
and I haven’t you know it’s hard to
figure out as far as Xander goes and I
think going into Sunday I was like oh
he’s going to finally do it like thank
God like I feel like we’ve been waiting
for this certainly seemed like he was
going to for like half of that round
right he had a two shot lead at one
point he was at 20 under both Scotty and
Windam were back at 18 at the time and I
thought you know Xander’s gonna conquer
his demons and then just that that put
on
17 no dog in him at all whatsoever and
then just the two Bogies on the back
nine put him out of it just did not get
it going you know um with the Fairway
finder when he absolutely needed to yeah
I think too we’ve talked about this a
lot on the show off off air too it’s
really hard to bet guys when the numbers
look kind of like this Scotty like if I
don’t want to bet Scotty at plus 500 I
definitely don’t want to bet Xander at
plus 800 I think I can stomach betting
Scotty but we also talked about this
before we get a little bit more into
this tournament because I know that’s
what it’s about I think the way to bet
Scotty now is to either live bet him
like after day one day two I think
you’re going to find more value that way
or you wait until you know these booths
come out and then you can kind of add
that on but I don’t know that even
taking Scotty at the you might as well
find a way around it yeah I mean Scotty
is now a four and a half to one favorite
to win The Masters the Masters like this
this is this is starting to get
borderline like ridiculous at this point
like um I’m going to stop short of
saying you know the name that everyone
has started to attach here I because I’m
not sure we’re quite there yet but he’s
starting to get there and it’s it’s
really quite unnerving to kind of think
about that um you know you know in a
season where we started off with six
straight winners of 100 to one or fewer
odds and then we just get this barrage
of Scotty uh leading up to Major season
it’s a little is concerning cuz we don’t
really know what to think cuz outside of
outside of all these winners it’s just
been Scotty dominating so it’s going to
be interesting to see you know how the
next couple months shake out I’m still
not convinced Scotty can win outside of
the months of February to uh April be
because he’s just never done it so um
that’ll be interesting to see but uh no
Scotty this week thankfully so yeah
let’s get on to let’s get on to vbar I
am going to full fade Xander at 8 to one
I want no part of it Zero part of you
know he hasn’t played this tournament
you know that much he’s only played it
once he had a top 12 12 finish in
2022 but I just I don’t know I’m I think
that especially coming off last week
what a heartbreaker that was uh I can’t
see it from him yeah kind of why I’ve
been betting him top 10 every time he’s
in the field is just he’s not winning at
at the end of the day he’s not winning
tournaments like you can throw whatever
stats you want he’s going to be in the
top three of my model probably every
single week but that doesn’t mean I’m
going to get there as far as an houry
especially at plus 800 we’ve got one of
the toughest scoring tournaments here at
valpar really challenging t- shots
accuracy kind of plays a little bit into
this year very narrow Fairways um off
the tea definitely matters a little bit
more than some of these past weeks
huting kind of similar to what we’ve
seen it’s it’s really a ball Striker’s
course so what did you look at I I
weighed par five scoring to a little bit
more than most people but I’ll let you
take off into what you looked at yeah so
uh looking at what we saw last year we
had Taylor Moore who is a Bermuda
putting specialist and just a known par
five absolute Crusher um you know apart
from him we had spe in the mix as well
who just you know Rel on a scrambling to
win everywhere and just doing special
things around the course but ultimately
is off the teame did him in he hit a
couple drives into the water down the
stretch and then Adam shank who you know
puted incredibly well remember he holded
like a 70 foot putt down the stretch
last year thought he was going to win
off of that and more just kind of came
from behind but uh you know Windam Clark
was also there as well he finished in
the top five last year and then Sam
Burns so ultimately what this comes down
to to me from seeing the guys that have
contended year-over-year is not only
guys who play well at this course uh but
guys who just do really well on those
Bermuda surfaces and play the par fives
really well because those are the two
stats that keep coming up over and over
and over again for me yeah being able to
scramble here is really important and
then obviously ball striking is always
going to be important and I think coming
in really good form has proven to be a
good a good thing as well you also look
at like T green like Strokes gain as far
as that goes you look at every winner
since 2019 they’ve been fif or better in
Strokes gain teer green so that’s
something that I looked at as well you
you say all those things right we talk
about all these things it’s really hard
not to go back to the Jordan spe well
because it like kind of defines him here
but I can’t do it I’m not gonna get my
feelings hurt again but it is kind of a
course where Jordan spe does make sense
are you fading him entirely because of
what we’ve
seen um so I talked about this last
night a little bit and I was kind of
going back and forth with some people on
Twitter about this we were discussing
you know some guys to look at and some
guys to fade kind of coar horses and and
speed certainly fits into that mold of
you know a coar horse he’s played well
here really I thought I had him as an
outright last year thought he was going
to easily take this down um you know
coming down the stretch and then he just
goes all spean off the tea hits a ball
into the water makes double bogey on
that hole knocks him out of the lead
there so uh too often that’s what we’ve
seen spe do uh on these tougher courses
just plays himself out of position and
he can only make these heroic scrambling
shots yeah so often in a round well we
know he’s going to make them the
question is can his good outweigh the
bad and just stupid decisions that he
makes and I’m just not sure that he can
do it uh I’m not really in love with the
form that he’s showing coming into this
week didn’t really look last great last
week at the Players but he hasn’t really
looked good for the past couple months
either so I might end up finding a way
to play spe in you know a DFS capability
I did play him for a first round leader
because he came up well on the model
here for that but I don’t really have
faith in him playing a complete four
rounds here and being able to best this
course yeah it’s really annoying I
tweeted uh last week like he finds a way
to make everything so [ __ ] difficult
and you know we think of Jordan as like
this very creative golfer and in a way
it’s because he’s a pain in the ass like
he genuinely puts himself in situations
where it’s like oh there’s spe again
like hitting from the chips like why why
are you doing that all the time like can
you just play the good golf that we know
you can play um he makes things way too
difficult I don’t know that I can get
into it again first round leader I can
definitely get behind but let’s get into
smash or pass let’s talk about some of
these other names starting with who I
like to call sex icon the sex icon that
is Keith Mitchell top 30 plus 125 smash
or pass uh well I’m I’m I’m here for
visor gang at this point we we are
putting on the visors for this one
Mitchell uh Smasher pass top 30 plus 125
one of my favorite bets of this week
it’s an emphatic smash for me here I
mean he is the total driving King he you
know in this field you know we’re
measuring total driving which is a
measure of driving distance and driving
accuracy uh Strokes gained off the te is
one of the most important metrics to
look at at inisbrook Copper headqu you
got some narrow Fairways here you got
some penal rough on either side you want
to hit those Fairways uh it’ll make
things so much easier on you and Keith
Mitchell ranks ninth on the PGA tour
over the past couple years in total
driving so really like him but I also
wasn’t expecting him to come first in my
model this week so that was a nice
surprise as well uh he’s got two
appearances of Al bar his career he’s
got a t11 and a t69 so nice um hasn’t
played this event very nice sex icon see
very unbrand the stars are riing here
absolutely has not played this event uh
since 2021 but I’m not too worried about
that plays really well in Florida he’s
coming off a nice appearance uh at the
cognizant classic a nice little top 10
there he’s got a solid run of form
coming in as well uh you know we’re
going to we’re going to throw out the
players uh he finished t72 last week
there but t17 at Waste Management
Phoenix Open t19 at the Mexico open and
again that T9 at the Cog so I really
like the Run of form he’s in right now I
do like to play PGA National as a comp
course inbrook uh not a Pete di track
but you know inisbrook does have a lot
of compar arons to it when you take out
the fact that it’s a little bit longer
than a typical Peete die Track by about
400 yards um and I really like the way
that his profile sets up in this Brook
his putting and chipping around the
green is always going to be a little bit
of a liability for him which is why I’m
taking the uh you know a little bit
further down the board and going T30
instead of a T20 or you know an outright
play here but at 125 I absolutely love
the number uh you know a little bit of a
weaker field so give me ke Keith
Mitchell here yeah and listen I’m
butting a couple of the buttons like I’m
all in on Keith Mitchell this week he
also R out I’m all in uh top three of my
model he’s like you said playing some
good golf right now takeaway last week
we’ll ignore it um he’s top 10 in this
field in par five scoring like we
mentioned before I put quite an emphasis
on that uh and also in strok G’s on
approach I like Keith Mitchell here so I
did bet him outright to totally cool
with the T30 I’m going to smash as well
with you for the next one turning to
like I think just in our Twitter Circle
and our community kind of popular but
he’s very
quietly kind of on fire I mean this guy
is five Street top 20s it’s Doug gim pet
May likes to call the gim Reaper um
smash or pass Doug gim top 20 plus 225
so I have not gotten in on gim uh as
much as everyone else and it’s
definitely affecting my bank roll
because I’m missing out on some
basically free money you gave him out uh
top 20 plus 350 I think it was last week
was an absolute gold Mind of a bet that
you know I was looking at a few days in
I was like wondering just why did I not
take this guy his electric um putt from
like 60 feet on 17 I think it was on
Saturdays yeah it was incredible just
watching him it was like tiger esque uh
on that on that putt at austa from like
15 20 years ago where he’s just stalking
the edge of the green and just massive
fist bumps uh I’m absolutely a fan of
this rided out really well my model as
well top seven pick there uh lots of
green across the board for gim from
where I’m standing is great Bermuda
putter good and bogy avoidance
um par for scoring faway proximity from
175 plus uh all rates out good for me so
I’m right on board here I’ll end up
swinging on this with you as well um I’m
not sure I’m going to get there on an
outright but I will definitely get there
on the placement yeah I took him on the
outright um I also if you don’t want to
fully get in but you want some gim
action I think the top 30 at plus 105 is
still like if you want to get in a
little bit but you don’t want to do too
much totally in on you going that
direction five consecutive starts
getting over a stroke on approach he’s
gained three Strokes putting and
back-to-back starts very important here
especially at this tournament um and
he’s gained Strokes off the tea and Alla
starts the season so I think once he
fully puts it all together which he I
mean he kind of has he’s just playing
good golf right now so I got there in
the outright I got it at 70 to1 it
opened at 80 to one it’s down some books
down to 40 to one so again there’s money
coming in on gim so I think taking the
top 20 taking the top 30 just to feel a
little something I think Doug G is worth
betting it’s just up to everyone else
which direction they want to go yeah I
absolutely agree with them okay let’s go
uh to the pipsqueak Mr Brian Harmon uh
smash or pass Brian Harmon outright 25
to one yes so again someone I’ve I’ve
been discussing on Twitter um and I I
want to play caveat here with with
Harmon um I’m fading him this week
because the number the outright number
is absolutely atrocious um there’s
someone who said this on Twitter the
other day I cannot remember for the life
I mean I want to say it was Brian
kersner um you know guy’s Gotta Wait
absolute way with words um betting Brian
Harmon betting Brian Harmon at 50 to one
or less feels like I want to poke hot
needles in my eyes um that that is the
kind of like Vibe I get when seeing a
Brian Harmon sub 50 number 25 to one
almost made me throw up yesterday when I
saw it it is possibly just a
horrifically bad number a massive
oversight to a guy who is playing some
truly outrageously good golf right now
but I just don’t know if this is his
place has not played well at inisbrook
in his career he’s got six miscuts in
nine starts
here just not good his best finish is a
top five finish in in 2022 here but I
just I don’t know if he’s going to be
able to put it together here he’s coming
off two really emotionally charged
performances uh you know obviously
including nearly uh getting into that
playoff with everyone else at the top of
the players last week I just don’t know
if this is going to be his place to put
it all together um definitely has all
talent in the world here but I
completely disagree with the number I
want to say you know from a oneand done
standpoint I could absolutely understand
like him you know just being a fixture
in the top five or 10 so if you’re
looking for a safe pick this week he
could definitely be there because he
possesses the upside but his course
history here coupled with the number is
just a firm stay away for me and his
just his placement numbers aren’t that
great either you know he’s only top uh
plus 115 for a top 20 which isn’t
terrible but you know I I just would not
be taking you know anything else with
him yeah I’m tting as well um mainly
because every and he’s down to 20 to one
now like it’s just ridiculous very very
very public I hate that if you watch the
football show you know I go the other
direction the second that the public
jumps on someone um I see bet Rivers has
a plus 150 on his top 20 totally in on
that cool yeah I could I could get
behind that down I can get be I can get
behind that I can maybe get behind the
top 10 as well I’m going to tell you
guys right now the dude needs to get
bigger pants they’re way too tight we’re
seeing way too much on the course um but
I mean yes he’s coming off of his best
approach performance this past week he’s
got two top 10 four top 25 he’s giving
Xander that’s what he’s giving now like
it’s like almost there good form I’m not
betting on it everyone’s on him so I’m
out for I’m passing on
Brian yeah I’m I’m out you know maybe he
sneaks into a DFS lineup or two but at
this point not not the vibe I’m with
right now we’ll go uh next one here
another outright smash or pass Sam Burns
12 to
one all right so this is the only
like I had a list of guys who I was okay
betting it outright with this with this
time but I cannot get behind Burns going
he’s got is he going to go for the three
feet here like if anybody makes sense
it’s probably him um really really had a
good you know I I was hoping that he
didn’t finish as well at the player so
the number wouldn’t be inflated that
much have to think that this number
moved from like being like 16 or 17 to
one to 12 to one after he zoomed up the
leaderboard on Sunday morning of the
players but uh I I I don’t know I I
really want to like I don’t have a real
reason to fade him I just like my vibes
are not there on Sam Burns right now for
some reason like all the talent in the
world but has the innate ability to just
[ __ ] it up like for one one and a half
days and completely play himself out of
the tournament just poorly placed rounds
just trying to do a little bit too much
like almost spean in that regard where
he’s just like trying to do a little bit
too much make everything look a little
bit too too cool and in the process just
like throws himself into an eight
somewhere so you know I I I’m I’m not
going to say that there’s like in like a
a real reason to fade him I’m fading the
number here with
him yes um so it’s funny I have three
notes next to his name I don’t and I
already don’t I just bullet point
anyways and I just talk from how
whatever I want to say but these are the
three bullet points and I’ll read them
word for word no uh raided out well one
already too many times here and then I’m
just not doing it that’s where he could
win again like he could and I told
myself up into this point I had been
saying oh I’m gonna wait till valpar I’m
gonna bet Burns at valpar blah I’m gonna
wait till Texas like I maybe I’ll get
back on Colonial Colonial yeah yeah I
just I’m not doing it at the 12 to one
um if he wins like again I’m not going
to be like oh my gosh it’s so shocking
but he’s also one of those guys that I
think week to week could win whenever he
just like it’s just Sam burds and I
can’t I I’m out I’m out this week yeah I
I I said that I I tweeted this a couple
weeks ago um or maybe it was last I
don’t know they all blend together at
this point Sam Burns has the most Talent
of any golfer on the PGA tour that has
the innate ability to [ __ ] up their
round in one shot like the mo one of the
most prodigious skill sets I’ve ever
seen on the PGA tour and just sometimes
just plays like a junior varsity golfer
just for reasons unknown um and for that
reason I’m
out yeah I’m out we sound like we’re on
Sharp tank okay next one here smash or
pass cam young
T20 top 20 plus 120 sign me up for you
know another sneaky cam young under the
radar you know placement finish here uh
nice number plus plus 120 here uh has
never played here so like it could be
like beginner luck kind of vibe to him
you know coming off a week at the
Players where kind of it felt like a lot
of people were on him and didn’t really
play that well and before that he was at
the cognizant where everyone kind of
knew he was going to be there but he was
playing in the shadow of Rory mroy for
three days and just kind of you know
zoomed under the radar to a nice little
top five finish there um I’m going to
rely on some com course results here
with him PGA National like I just said
top four top three at harbort toown a
few years ago um obviously these are
much more positional courses that line
up with how inisbrook kind of lays thems
out there uh and again he plays well
when the eyes aren’t on him as much I
don’t think the eyes will be on cam
young as much this week to succeed um
you know I haven’t really seen that many
people talking about him as much as a
potential winner and that kind of almost
led me to take him as an outright I
haven’t really decided whether I’m going
to or not and I think he may end up on
the outright card for me uh and then he
ranks third and strokes to Strokes gain
total difficult conditions in his last
24 rounds which I really like guy comes
out to play at these harder tracks that
is his game so you know sign me up for a
tournament where he doesn’t have to rely
on his putting as much which has quietly
been pretty good on per Bermuda over his
last uh you know handful of tournaments
there so cam young top 20 I’m in what is
he
outright uh currently
22 um and uh some books he’s 25 22 on
draft like I would rather take Brian
Haron though at 25 to one if we’re going
to be honest
I’d rather take neither of them I think
I’m gonna smash T20 I might change my
opinion on him he might make it onto my
card I can get behind maybe him being a
first round leader look for me he might
be a top 10 look I will dive in a little
bit more his long IR irons are dialed um
he’s top 10 in you know proximity from
175 plus yeah and then I mean you look
at what he’s done his last four starts
gained at least one have strokes off the
te and approach two things we’re looking
at this week a lot of weeks so I’m going
to smash the
T20 I could see myself getting
sold on a few other bets potentially in
outright but I will say if he misses the
cut it’ll be the least shocking thing
I’ve ever seen you know what I mean yeah
I don’t disagree with that and I and I
hate that because I think he’s either
gonna find success like he’s gonna be
top 20 or it’s we’re going to be like
wow what the [ __ ] were we saying on the
show on
Tuesday yeah I I definitely think that
there’s you know he’s got a very you
know high ceiling low floor type vibe to
his game right now but again I I just
can’t shake it you know some of these
guys are just you know hardc course big
game Hunters he’s one of them yeah
speaking of what the [ __ ] was Steph
talking about on Tuesday uh Bud
colie who wants some bud this week
anyone
um Bud top 40 plus 130 smash or
pass I’m gonna smash it I I
really I really like it you know you
know I love me some bud collie time to
time and and rarely get it get him in uh
pre-tournament but he rated it out
highly in the model for me uh inside my
top 15 and uh dude besides the like the
just the feel-good vibe of like his
story like he’s been playing some
quietly good golf he was leading at at
the uh at the cognizant through two
rounds like he play he’s playing some
good golf right now and this is a guy
that I never thought would see play on
the PGA tour again after that car
accident so I’m just really in for IT
guy loves his Florida golf he’s always
played well in Florida throughout his
entire career so sign me up top 40 I’m G
to find a book where I can bet top 40s
and i’mna going to sprinkle me on some
bud collie I can put it in for you um
Bud collie is only on my radar because I
needed to pick another Mulligan up
because my because my my f my season
long golf league that everyone knows
about um like for some reason I’ll have
13 guys every [ __ ] week and then two
of them make the cut so I’ve been
struggling so I had to pick up boli um
picked him up I’ve been pleasantly very
surprised so we’re all in
I’m calling it right now which he kind
of already is but Bud collie is my last
year chz rebe so for people that watch
the show last year Chez reevy won me so
much [ __ ] money because the books
didn’t catch on with the fact that like
he was just he was just top 40 every
week like he was finishing 37 whatever
it was um top 21 t21 last time we saw
him he’s gained look at fuckload of
Strokes off the te like he’s playing
good golf you driving accuracy from when
you’ve seen Bud collie that’s something
he has always thrived in I don’t think
that top 40 is asking a lot from a guy
who’s in solid form like is he in the
best form is he in fantastic form no but
bu kie looks good right now so bug
collie top 40 give it to me plus 130
come on I’m cool with you getting down
with the top 20 if you want to go that
way it’s also my dad bet this week like
I’m going all in Bud col’s my guy he’s
my dad bet um before I find out your
dead bet there’s one golfer that I want
to ask you about that I did not text you
about because I wanted to see how we
what we talked about when we brought him
up uh Tony F
now hasn’t played B Star since 2018 Miss
cut he also though has a he he came in
fifth in 2017 here T45 last week last
five he has three top 20s top six
t13 I’m thinking like you know what it
is I think it’s the accuracy off the tea
and the putting that’s going to concern
me here but yeah but hear me out if he
does I don’t know is there a little bit
of value on Tony maybe not outright but
somewhere else that we could find he’s
he came up strong in my model me too I
at the end of the day I really worry
about his putting like I’m really really
worried about his putting and that play
that’ll play such a big like thing here
and his you know I do like the fact that
this isn’t going to be you know a
tournament that relies on a kind of
being into a putting contest but these
are some really tough greens here this
is one of the courses uh on tour that
has some similarity similarity to uh you
know these Donald Ross style greens that
are kind of all over the place they
break everywhere and Tony has just not
been on the money with these putts at
all lately um that that was the one you
know one of the one uh consistencies
that I saw looking at this tournament
last year is that all of these guys were
strong putting uh there were only two
guys in the top 25 that did not gain
Strokes putting last year and that just
worries the crap out of me with Tony and
it’s a reason why I left him off I’m not
sure he’s one of the better long iron
players on tour he’s really really solid
off the te his his ball striking and and
uh you know just approach game is there
but the putting and the chipping are are
two things that give me a little bit of
pause with him so I’m going to take a
look at some of the placement numbers
for him uh I I think you know top 20
plus 130 might be in the cards but I
don’t think I’m going to be able to get
there out right at a 251
number I don’t think so either I don’t
think I will get there at the out rght
but again I think I want to have action
on Tony I will decide what that looks
like I’ll probably put it on picket
before I put it on Twitter but what I
like about Tony this week is that no
one’s on him and I feel like the weeks
that we haven’t had these super strong
Fields what happens is someone comes out
of left field right field whatever you
want to call call it and Tony feels like
a guy that could end up doing that
usually I like to bet Tony you know
towards the back end of the season but I
think like the plus 130 like you said at
a top 20 is somewhere I can get behind
um what is your dad bet of the week so
my dad bet is someone that I talked
about uh I told you about earlier in the
week uh and he had a great great great
Sunday before he fell back a little bit
but it is it is a great week to be a Sam
whether your name Sam Burns or it’s Sam
Ryder so Sam Ryder top 40 plus 110 uh
one of the better Bermuda Putters in
this field which you know again is
always going to be you know shooting you
way up my uh my ranks for this
tournament here he’s got three Mis cuts
at bisar but he did finish t19 last year
really like the way he’s been playing
coming in with some good form coming in
here uh another com course for me
setfield country cup he’s only got one
miscut and seven tries there he’s got a
handful of top 40 finishes there and
then um TPC th Southwind as well he’s
got a couple top 40s there and he’s a
really solid par five scorer or Par Four
scorer excuse me but I really like the
way you know his golf game is settling
up right now again top 40 the bar is not
set high at all all we realistically
need him to do is make the cut middle of
the pack and then kind of just hold
steady through the weekend there so uh
Sam Ryder top 40 my dad bet of the week
I love it we’ll jump around a little bit
because he’s actually my Dart throw of
the week I like the 100 to
one I think he’s playing some really
good golf right now for Sam Ryder and
like stats aside we’re gonna go off like
Vibes alone I watched this kid and I’m
telling
you like a win is like he’s like
flirting with just like putting it
together I think he wants to win he’s
dialed in um I also like him first round
leader he that’s 80 to one so I like
both those 80 to1 I like him as my Dart
100 to one so we’ll jump around what’s
your Dart throw o so my Dart throw is a
guy that uh I think like six weeks ago I
said I cannot stand this guy I not sure
I will ever bet him because I know he’ll
disappoint me um but he’s really
starting to grow on me the iron game is
absolutely Immaculate with him Kevin Yu
100 to one um just really love the way
that he shakes out for a course like
this that is going to be so dependent on
ball striking and your T gree game and
par five scoring like he really just
fits the bill for me the putting is the
issue here but again that’s why he’s 100
to one but he does write ninth in my
model first and tia green Strokes gained
in this field third in ball striking
first in bogy avoidance 13th in par five
scoring just tons of green all over the
board for Kevin Yu uh we’ve seen him
make quite a few runs this year uh had a
top 10 at the cognizant he has two other
top 10 alongside that he’s a great long
iron player from the 175 plus proximity
uh just really good looking good at you
know and uh thought he might win the
American Express earlier this year
another kind of similar course in the
you know a desert style mold to
inisbrook
just really has started to come on you
know one of those corn fairy youngsters
that obviously has no history of bisar
or any of the other comc courses but you
know he’s definitely shaping up like he
could be a winner at some point very
soon uh we’ve seen a couple of those
corn fairy guys win already this year
with Pavone and nap wouldn’t shock me to
see a third here in a semi we field
Kevin you I’m really proud of you I feel
like you’re going back to guys that
you’re were like I cannot stand this guy
you’re really like opening up some of
these guys men cor fa I just want to
also make an announcement before we get
into our one and DS not that I’m
stalling or anything um no I’m not but
Ben Kohl’s Ben Kohl’s is officially my
least favorite like person on planet
Earth I think he is oh I was wondering
when you were going to get to this one
no no no he’s a horrible golfer I he’s
on my he’s on my no bet list I I think
he I think he gives no effort I don’t
care what he did a couple weeks ago it
is I it’s unbearable that I drafted him
I was so proud of myself I’m like oh
yeah look at this I remember I’m out I’m
I’m done I’m nine over on I mean come on
you’re not even trying at this point um
so we’re out on Ben Cole’s who is your
one and done this
week oh no I’m I’m going back to someone
no you’re
not I’m going back to Justin Thomas this
week [ __ ] I gonna do it okay all
right go ahead go go
go he’s played so well here three top 10
five top 20s only one miscut and six
tries here obviously play has played
really well in colonial um managed top
10 here last year despite being one of
two golfers in the entire field that or
in the top 25 that lost Strokes putting
but the results have been there this
year and again I I I’ve said it twice on
this show I’m not really taking too much
stock in last week’s players um and I
prefer to look at some Greener PES with
JT he’s really been playing well he’s
got four top 12 this year uh the golf
does look back to its kind of normal for
form for him and it’s it’s about time
for that he you know sacks up and
finally wins the golf tournament again
there’s absolutely no reason why it
cannot be here for JT so the number is
really really shitty 14 to one but I’m
going for it he will be my only guy
inside the top TW or uh the 20 to one
marker that I have this week okay few
things here one I do think the best
approach to this week is kind of Tak one
of these top guys and then if you want
to go ahead and sprinkle otherwise go
ahead and do
that we both play Fantasy Football we
know about the fantasy football Twitter
Community you know cherry picking is
something that people love to do I’ve
noticed with Justin Thomas it’s very
easy to cherry pick because he’s played
well at a lot of places and I’m talking
myself out of it because he was going to
be my one and done two but now I have to
talk myself out of it he could it we
could just cough it like count it as an
off or we could just count it as like
Justin Thomas playing the last 18
months but he was playing well for two
months before then fine it’s fair I
don’t hate it’s unfair to write him off
for one week at a at A T at you know a
weird track where I don’t know because I
went into last week thinking oh my God
Justin Thomas is my guy to pick this
week as well he’s going to be my one
onone on last week’s show
be you know before everything happens so
I don’t know like it feels like he could
be back but at the same time I’d be an
idiot not to you know consider your side
and and just me literally cherry-picking
or subconsciously
cherry-picking I don’t know I don’t know
be I’m I’m gonna talk myself out of it
before the end of who is your who is
your I’m be very no I’m gonna be very
upset if you end up being right I am
going to take the easy route and go with
my first click and that was sex icon
Keith Mitchell uh 40 to one he WR it out
too well for me I don’t feel comfortable
taking Doug gim I’m gonna try to take
this to my model and he was one of those
guys so I’m gonna go with Keith Mitchell
I won’t be surprised if Justin Thomas
wins I also won’t be surprised if he
misses the cut you’ve done better I
think than me on some of these want and
done so maybe there’s something to it
did you plan on saying Justin Thomas or
did you just decid no I did not I I I
went I went with Justin Thomas um about
10 minutes into the show my original
oneand done was one of my first Clicks
in minw Le and I pivoted um but I will
still be on Min woi um and then you know
obviously I’m going with you know
Consortium of other guys Adam shank um I
will I will also be on Keith Mitchell
outright as well and I do think I’m
going to be on cam young which is my
dumb [ __ ] bet of the week so you know oh
my gosh um before we get out of
here first round leader candidates I
have to tell you one that I did bet see
what you think because I want to bet him
because he I hate when a guy reachs out
well and you’re like oh God I cannot bet
you there’s a zero percent chance that
guy for me this week was MAV I can’t do
it like there’s no way I’m betting him
I’m going to bet him first leader is
there a guy that you’re looking at first
round leader if you were to give one guy
right now yeah so uh you have my list of
first round leaders that I took I took
six of them um I’m going with Daniel
Burger to be the first round leader here
that name but I think I know I know but
like the the it everything lines up here
for Burger really really solid play um
look tough scoring conditions Florida
swing accuracy and shot shaping being
prominent Keys like this is you know it
shapes up really well for Daniel burer
and uh you know despite the little bit
we’ve seen of him this year like this is
this is a course where he can take
advantage of and um I don’t have his
results here off the top of my head um
you know I know he’s played here before
but uh it does feel like a course that’s
going to shape up really well to him so
he is one of the guys I took 75 to one
um and I you know I you know I sprinkled
a couple long shots and but the only guy
at the top of the board that I went with
for a first- round leader was spe
so watch Daniel Burger end up winning
this thing all right Sam remind the
people where they can find you and we
will get out of here yeah you guys can
find me on Twitter at Swagman 95 all the
golf content NFL content and Formula 1
content over at the game day and the
game day NFL find them on Twitter uh as
well but you know always a pleasure
always a blast and we will be back next
week to uh moan and groan over Justin
Thomas Well Steph will be here to moan
and grown I will be celebrating with
Justin Thomas yeah yeah and if you
haven’t joined my March Madness uh
Survivor leagues go do that there’re
gonna be a blast Arizona will end up
breaking my heart in the final four but
that’s okay that’s my fault because I
bet them yep I will blame it on you all
right guys we’ll see you on Friday for
the NFL show watch make it break
[Music]
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