Coast to a payday in Harbor Town with our PGA DFS preview & best bets for The RBC Heritage 2024!
Will Tommy Fleetwood (18-1) find success in South Carolina? Or does Scottie Scheffler (4-1) continue to steamroll the field?
PGA Tour analysts Conor Coughlin & Bo McBrayer cover course notes, core plays, outrights, props & more for the next elevated event on “The 19th Hole (S4 E15).”
⏰ Time Stamps:
00:00 Introduction
03:21 The Masters 2024 Reaction
09:52 What Are We Drinking?
12:02 Caddy Notes: Harbour Town Golf Links Course & Tournament Breakdown
19:58 Club Twirls: RBC Heritage Best Bets
44:30 No Trunk Slams: RBC Heritage PGA DFS Core Plays & Fades
55:43 Final Predictions + The Hat Pick
58:05 Plugs & Outro
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✖️ Follow the hosts of the program on Twitter/X:
🏌️♂️ Conor Coughlin (https://twitter.com/Cough_DFS)
🏌️ Bo McBrayer (https://twitter.com/Bo_McBigTime)
good evening ladies and gentlemen and
welcome back to the 19th hole we are
live right there oh baby we are live on
in between media make sure you like this
video subscribe to the whole damn
Channel and make sure you jingle that
Bell to be notified we have moved on
from the Masters another Scotty sheffler
Clinic out there he dominated at Augusta
National uh we’ll talk about that for a
little bit and then we’ll jump right
into the very next event it is an
elevated limited entry event 69 players
nice have descended upon Hilton Head
Island and for the RBC Heritage which is
uh pretty fun pretty fun in a kind of a
non-ms boring kind of way no green
jacket this week we’re going for a
Tartan jacket plaid is in just for this
week so uh cut away your bombers they’re
all in punana Dominican Republic this
week we’re going to Georgia
on the coast let’s hit
[Music]
it there
[Music]
[Music]
Harbortown golf links on Hilton Head
Island Conor Coughlin oh we got to
switch us I’m not Conor Coughlin I’m
Another Irish bastard Bo mcer Conor
coflin
cdss I am _ mic BigTime check us out on
the Twitter machine we have Dee from the
lake house shout out SoCal early on
she’s right on time we got the pride of
Calgary Alberta Royal Slade good evening
fellas we’ll be sure to not talk too
much smack about the Canadians in the
field or the fact that I took Royal down
in our pool over the weekend that was
pretty smart I mean I I wasn’t even
close I mean Royal at least had a good
showing in our pool for the Masters
Harbortown is Seth’s favorite course of
course it is the most boring course on
the PGA Tour as far as what we’re going
to talk about a little bit later Seth
come on man come on the only thing
better would be if Callum Taran was
playing then Seth would be in heaven
unfortunately Callum Taran did not have
the required Cuts made to be anywhere
near this tournament uh I believe he is
at punana down the Dominican so if you
want to bet on him Seth go to the punana
resort at the Dominican Republic for the
corales
yeah unfortunately uh yeah you have to
be good to get into the elevated events
this year and the top 69
nice well above his pay
grade he reads at a sophomore
level yeah he’s English so you’d think
you’d speak
it hey not a horrible week last week I
just it was for me I I hit some
placement bets but it was rough like you
did better than I did last week the
streak is over you beat me by 10 in our
DFS matchup on a wild turn of events
where all both of us made a six for six
lineup just becau mostly because the cut
line flew to plus six on Friday when the
conditions got to they went from really
tough to absolutely brutal
garage which you love you love that I
love the Carnage I love it we had six
for sixes and I had the first round
leader I called out Bryson at the tail
end of the show yeah unfortun had
another strong showing yes it did the
Hat plays the hat does play um and
Bryson came out firing he looked like
vintage 2018 Bryson which is always good
to see and then the lack of short game
really killed him in the last three days
of the tournament and I mean it’s fine
we got to see some vintage Bry
unfortunately my guy Brooks Kea was dead
last among the 60 guys who made the cut
in Strokes gained putting his ball
striking was okay he couldn’t buy a
bucket though and so unfortunately he
shot overpar all four rounds it it it is
what it is my guy DJ killed me out of
$1,700 on
Underdog it was it was bad all around
Thursday I hit all four legs of my
parlay on Underdog thanks Rosie thanks
for reminding me yeah she knows you
sucked
and DJ was one over through 10 holes
when they suspended play for Darkness
right and I’m looking at it going okay I
just need DJ to shoot even part one
under over the last eight holes on
Friday I was like oh the conditions
might not be that bad they were really
bad and he shot six over on the rest for
the rest of his round the final eight
hole is six over and he was the only leg
that knocked me out of winning $1,700
off of a $30 bet
woof my heart did break for you a bit a
little a little but because I went to
bed thinking I had a pretty good chance
because one over through 10 that’s not
bad like I can see him making birdies on
13 and 15 making some pars this dude saw
he I mean he’s a high ball flight hitter
and so the wind picking up really killed
him and he checked out as soon as his
first round was over he had to tee right
off for his second round in the same
conditions and D J was absolutely done
well and I I think my big takea away for
the LI guys is outside of like the ey
test which is about all we have left at
this point like the further and further
they get withdrawn from the PGA the less
and less like valid any of the arguments
we had for them prior to them leaving
are they really do need the competition
at this point don’t they yeah I think I
think if we if we see them start to
creep back into a few more events who
knows what’s going to go on you know
reports our tiger had a really good
meeting with the piff and all that so I
mean maybe there’s going to be some
movement to kind of unify the tours if
that happens you know some of these guys
might might revive some of their skill
and and you know make a little bit of a
comeback but what about Dean burm
because I’m really curious about Dean
burm what Miami Champion what is
Dean I last it’s a German head it’s a
German School administrator appar they
should have let his ass in he would
might have done better than the rest of
them [ __ ] we saw some guys that we
didn’t expect to see at the top of the
leaderboard uh namely first timers like
ludvic oberg what did that guy look
polished or what well and it was it’s
weird because he was like a late
addition of my card um he it was right
at the bottom of my column last week I
didn’t talk a ton about him I thought I
thought just like visually he was
another guy where I’m like all right he
makes sense here but you never have a
debutant do very well and especially
with no major experience like and he
just took everything in stride man like
he was like a little kid in the candy
shop out there and the whole vibe of uh
oberg is like swag it’s it’s what we
need on the PGA like he’s a lovable guy
he didn’t take himself too serious and
he had the rowdiest gallery on Sunday
like they were rooting for the swed the
24y old rookie swed to take over and
catch Scotty like there’s nothing bad
you can really say about Scotty sheffler
because he’s a good guy wholesome figure
and absolutely the best golfer on planet
Earth right now but they the crowds
wanted ludvig or Colin to make strides
on that back nine and catch Scotty I
felt that in the air like they didn’t
want to see the chalk win but at the
same time like when L when oberg hit the
ball in the water on 11 and smiled about
it and then Colin did the same thing and
dunked it and he said godamn it as soon
as he hit the ball because he knew he
hooked it in the water that that was the
difference for me is like Colin was up
here in his head already and ludvic was
like next I’m gonna drop it take my
penalty stroke and my double Bogey and
move on like he was he was over it and
he made a charge after that yeah he did
I mean I like here’s the thing I never
take anything away from Scotty but you
know Scotty Scotty is the lacroy of the
PGA like I mean he just boring there’s
just nothing like yeah he’s he is
bordering at this point like you you’ve
definitely got to put him in the
argument as one of the one of the best
players of all time like he’s bordering
on as good as tiger was at Tiger’s like
Peak Performance you look at what he’s
doing I mean you you really can’t you
really can’t knock him down too much at
all but there’s just nothing inspiring
about Scotty and like if you look at the
viewership and the ratings and
everything that goes along with it in
the PGA right now like we need a rockar
we need somebody that’ll bring bring
people back to the PGA and I don’t think
it’s Liv that’s doing it uh drawing
people away I just think it’s the
politics and the [ __ ] that nobody
wants to listen to so nobody cares about
that stuff you know and so I’m I’m
hoping like we stick a fork and shamble
at some point in the near future so we
don’t have to listen to it for four days
but I also hope that some of these young
kids like become rock stars years you
can’t help it though when you’re
listening to the broadcast and you know
it’s every tie is to like the live
political [ __ ] it’s just like dude
that’s not even really like a thing like
just leave it alone so I left my drink
in the other room what what do you
have uh I dusted off the old Eric Church
Single Barrel Jack
Daniels I just St when I hear that song
Standing There on night long I looked up
and I was like oh you would have
discount Shades in a store bought tan FP
flops and cut off jeans even you don’t
know what’s you don’t know what I’m
gonna look like after we come back from
the next drop I could be that
guy that would be quite the costume
change Clark
Kent but yeah no it’s delicious I
haven’t had it in a while and it’s still
tast Jack gets a lot of [ __ ] but like
old number seven smooth good charcoal
field herd technically bourbon but
Tennessee whiskey and all the offshoots
of Jack like gentleman Jack’s delicious
you got your you got all sorts of
varieties even the honey is good for
mixing like you can’t go wrong with Jack
Daniels no and the Single Barrel Jack is
fantastic like I I think people I think
people don’t know what they’re in for
because they’re like they think it’s
going to be like old number seven it’s
nothing like old number seven for the
most part like I mean you can taste set
that is fact incorrect Ja Jack Daniels
has hurt a lot of people however
violently a lot of people have been hurt
by Jack Daniels in a violent and just
unbelievable way but it’s still worth it
if you can manage yourself with Jack
he’s a good friend he’s a confidant he
will
listen he’ll indulge you that’s for sure
oh yes he will encourage you to do
things you never thought you would do
oh should we should we get into it uh
yes let’s uh let’s head into the caddy
notes and talk about Hilton Head Island
Georgia 150 miles due southeast of
Augusta Scotty went all the way back to
Dallas and he’s supposed to come back to
to Georgia for this it I don’t
know what do you
think I think it’s Up For Debate I think
we’re going to talk about it all right
we’ll talk about in 30 seconds
[Music]
we’re flapping flapping flapping caddy
notes all right
Connor give us the cliffs notes on this
golf course Pete
Dy it is a Pete
Dy oh all right we are at RBC Heritage
harbard toown Golf Links in Hilton Head
Island South Carolina par 71 7213 yards
on the high side Fairways and greens are
both Bermuda this is a second course or
second shot course to the max lot of
forced angles overhanging trees distance
is relatively unimportant here the
average off the T distant substantially
lower than your uh tour average uh
greens are smaller than average as well
um and also are susceptible to some of
the ocean winds if we do get some wind
playing in this week which right now
it’s possible but unlikely it’s more
likely that we’re going to have some
thunderstorms a little added
moisture um so being all that said about
the greens uh good good around the green
game is important um and most
specifically when you’re on the green
you need to be a really good putter this
has a tendency to turn into a putting
contest definitely want guys that are uh
known known to have a good flat stick or
known to avoid three putts um but other
than that um Bermuda there’s not a whole
lot to say about this place it it’s your
typical kind of ocean ocean Pete Dy
track um we were joking before the show
this is probably the least inspiring uh
Pete Dy track that is in the Roa Pete
Drew this course on a napkin I’m just
picturing when James Blunt wrote you’re
beautiful this this is how Pete die
designed Harbor Town I feel like James
Blunt ended up in a better spot though
yeah so um yeah as far as movies go like
the the first the original is always the
best the sequel hit or miss the third
version or the fourth version or the
eighth version uh this is Too Fast Too
Furious this is too Pete to die
uninspired 7200 yards below tour average
Target golf plan your way around the
course hit it straight uh bombers have
no Advantage here you have no power here
which they really don’t it’s none
because you’re just going to find
yourself deeper into the Bermuda rough
and under the tree branches and these
greens are tiny and they’re undulating
and you just have to have a really good
second third and fourth shot here as
long as you can find the Fairway way
here you still have to stick it close
you still have to be able to make putts
and get around this course it’s about
average difficulty right like you’re
looking at 15 to 20 under par here and
the weather is not really going to be a
factor like it was last week thank
goodness I think where the weather might
be a slim factor I was just going to
touch on the weather is that that there
are thunderstorms overnight and into the
morning so like I do think that this
place is going to be extra receptive and
a little bit slower than typical for the
morning waves um and that’s actually
pretty consistent at least when I looked
earlier today that’s going to be pretty
much consistent throughout the
tournament you kind of hope that some of
the wind comes in later in the day and
dries it out a little bit otherwise this
is gon to be like straight up straight
up dart throwing like just yeah and with
how good these guys are this is by far
the strongest field this tournament has
ever seen it’s the first year as an
elevated event only 69 entries and let’s
say our world’s best golfer Scotty
sheffler sticks around like Meredith
first kid Maybe she goes past 40 weeks
and doesn’t have doesn’t go into labor
this week Scotty sheffler in soft
conditions he might just go bananas and
win this thing wire to wire with no
issues whatsoever uh stats to build
around every way I did it no matter what
I did Scotty sheffler was number one by
a long shot every way I did it across
the board and the only thing he was kind
of mediocre at was putting and we saw
how he putts recently at August the
national the toughest place in the world
to make putts Scotty Sheffer was making
all the damn putts his short game is
immaculate his ball striking when he’s
he was on Sunday was off on his approach
game he was off his distances were off
and it didn’t matter because he was so
good around the greens and making those
clutch putts from five to eight feet
that tripped everybody else up it was
like Scotty Sheffer was playing a whole
different Golf Course without any wind
without any Speedy greens and runoffs it
did it just seemed like this guy was
unaffected by everything else that was
bludgeoning the rest of the field and
especially for a guy who hits like
greens at 74% like at a 74% clip like he
doesn’t miss greens and he was like
missing a lot of greens and I honest to
God at this point he he better be naming
his kid after Rory in some capacity
because Rory telling him to pick up that
spider was the best thing that’s ever
happened to Scotty’s golf game CU he’s
making everything it’s scary happy learn
how to put H
oh shouldn’t have been standing there he
shouldn’t have been standing there and
unfortunately for Rory Ted Scott
Scotty’s CAD has made more than him this
year on a 10 10% basis Ted Scott
obviously the average caddy salary is
10% of their players earnings I think
Ted’s well taken care of either way
uh he’s now won four green jackets on
the bag two with Bubba and two with
Scotty I mean Rory’s already clubing him
he might as well caddy farm and make
more money for sure I don’t know that
he’s as good of a caddy as Ted Scott
though no that’s probably true yeah I
think Ted’s pretty secure in his job um
to round out our notes on the course uh
B kind of hit on it 15 to 20 under is
about where I expected um previous
winners you got Matt Fitzpatrick 17 last
year Jordan Speed 13 year before Stewart
sink 19 the year before that uh the only
the only course that web Simpson even
thinks about playing well at is this
one2 and then CT RBC web Simpson open
yeah so um and then stats to build
around you kind of mentioned it but um
if if you’re building a model and
ignoring the fact that Scotty cheffer is
probably going to win um Fairways in
regulation Greens in regulation
opportunities gained guys that are
sticking a close getting really good
looks at um at birdie or better shots
gain approach uh specifically I would
look at the area 175 to 200 about 30% of
the approach shots this week are going
to come from that range he’s correct uh
Strokes gain power five Strokes gain Par
Four within the par 4 specifically 400
to 450 would be the bucket I would look
at and then all the putting sets that
we’ve already talked about um Strokes
game putting in General on Bermuda uh
three putt avoidance and then overall
bogey avoidance those would be the big
things I would look at here um and
frankly it’s a well-rounded type of
setup so I’m pretty evenly weighted uh
probably just a smidge higher on putting
and approach stats than the other ones
but for the most part pretty balanced
build this week yeah very balanced on my
end too I think uh we have a very
similar player pool and uh I think the
only difference might come in who we’re
betting on based on the odds uh so let’s
let’s jump right into it and twirl some
clubs Connor
[Applause]
[Music]
every you ever seen you ever seen
baseball yeah every time I see them I
think first you get the jobs then you
get the khakis then you get the girls
every time I see those guys that’s all I
can think of yeah uh so draftking sports
book that’s where we’re pulling our odds
from you can use any book you want draft
King Sports spoke very accessible not
available in California unfortunately so
I have somebody do it for
me that’s off the record of course yeah
nobody blasts that out on social media
of course not um Scotty sheffler plus
400 to win outright I think it’s a
little long for what we’ve seen he was
plus 450 to win the damn Masters and
blew away the field I think what we have
here is a little bit of Meredith Sheffer
baked in here at plus 400 because I was
ready to bet him at as low as plus 250
so the fact that we’re getting this guy
at plus 400 again green flag racing and
plus money for top five are you [ __ ]
kidding
me that’s the one I can’t figure out
outout like it’s not the it’s not the
plus 400 being too like too long it’s
the plus 110 for a top five like if he
plays that’s automatic supersonic yeah
like I I bet your mortgage but don’t bet
your mortgage like I mean
fresh I can’t see a I can’t see an
alternate reality where that doesn’t hit
but um let’s say Scotty doesn’t stay in
this tournament but let’s just say for
the record if he does you should bet the
plus 400 yeah and the Plus
yeah why not get them both really yeah
that’s that’s a that’s smart money uh
and but let’s without going into too
much detail Scotty sheffler is by far
the best golfer in this field even
though it’s a really strong field where
do you go after him we have a lot of
guys here where it’s again baked in that
they think Meredith might go into labor
sending Scotty home to Dallas and
putting the rest of these guys there are
1 two three four five six
gentlemen below Scotty that are fetching
less than 20 to1 odds to win out right
here obviously with Meredith shefer
baked in here uh where do you go if
anywhere to be honest I have a a sliver
of interest in uh
oberg um I don’t think this is gonna
sound weird did you see the updated
video of him saying his own name in his
Swedish dialect what is it oar obai
oai yeah I am never G obai no shot that
I get that yeah so just call him oberg
be English about it it’s easy I’m just
gonna start calling him
Luda he goes by Ludy on on Instagram
well that’s what we’re calling him now
uh plus 1200 on him seems like he’s
getting to the point where you can start
to make an argument that he might be a
little bit course proof he just shows up
he’s got a well-rounded enough game uh
that I I think I I think he does well
anywhere that being said though the
areas of his game that still sketch me
out from time to time um are some of
those longer approach areas so knowing
where the approach shots are coming from
and knowing that his you know 313
average drive is not going to really
come into effect at this course I I have
interest but I haven’t pulled the
trigger quite yet like I think he’ll
show up and I think he’ll play
well but I yeah it seems it seems short
to me um this this just does not seem
like the course that I would be lining
up to bet him at but I more than likely
he ends up on the card just
because maybe it’s recency biased but he
looks like the real deal he’s definitely
the real deal whether he’s ready to win
on the PGA tour yet is remains to be
seen still and a field the strong I kind
of tend to wait and see on him in a
lesser event where he might Tee It Up
Against the Lesser field I I would be
fully on board with 12 to one but in a
field this strong I’m not doing it uh I
will be playing a [ __ ] ton of him in DFS
uh the guy I’ve been gravitating to
based on model is Xander shafley he was
number two in my model pretty
comfortably but the guy’s just like he’s
not finding Fairways that seems pretty
important here everything else seems
good second Shot Golf Course Xander is
really good he’s an excellent short game
player I just don’t know 10 to one is
something I want to look at the guy with
the the odds that I was impressed by and
also did well last week Colin morawa do
not sleep on Colin on a golf course like
this off the tea he’s excellent on
second skip right over my boy Tommy
Fleetwood I’ll talk about Tommy in a
second then I was getting there man I’m
not disagreeing with you on Tommy
Fleetwood I just don’t think Tommy’s
ever gonna win a PGA Tour
event so so I like to jump in on your
Colin thing like I was really kind of
excited to see him
playing in somewhat K orawa like form he
looks so good until he didn’t and then I
was like oh Christ what
happened one little bad shot on 11 and
he was checked out so I’m Lia morawa I’m
excited I’m excited um it’s nice to see
him like putting together a little bit
but Colin stick it close
again but he kind of is striking me as
like a bet a bit of a mental [ __ ] like
he just like can’t he can’t come back
from an era you are still talking about
a two-time major winner in brutally
condition yeah but still those were in
brutal conditions so I don’t think he’s
that I just think that if he has any
doubts about his putting it shows up
when the pressure is up so the fact that
he did have a strong showing at Augusta
when the conditions again were brutal it
it lends me to believe in his confidence
a lot more because there were there’s
nothing that could have put more
pressure on his putting than than those
conditions at Augusta and something like
Hilton Head where yeah it’s tough to
putt there but it’s going to be a lot
softer it’s going to have a lot less
danger around the greens than Augusta
had I think that we might see the talent
rise to the top again for Colin which
would again snowball his confidence
higher he’s got immense Talent they do
not unell how good of a golfer this guy
is especially we start seeing putts fall
this this guy could win any tournament
he enters and at 18 to1 uh I hold a lot
more confidence that he would actually
win something versus Tommy Fleetwood who
stat darling on a course that requires
accuracy you can’t ignore it Tommy
Fleetwood is one of the most accurate
players on the planet but talk about
mental midgets this guy folds Under
Pressure like a lawn chair every Sunday
doesn’t matter how good he’s playing
except for master
Sunday yeah but he was there was no
pressure because he wasn’t in contention
really he was he was adjacent to
contention but he wasn’t chasing Scotty
down so so the mental gymnastics of it
aside like I I think I think skill-wise
like you like you just said I think
colore andawa has a lot of upside um so
I don’t think that’s a Bad Bet by any
stretch I I’m probably a little less
sold that he’s backback I think he put
together a couple of couple of good like
rounds over the weekend which was good
to see um I think with Fleetwood where I
just have a little more confidence at
the same number um and it’s it’s not a
ton more confidence because we all know
Tommy Fleetwood doesn’t win in the
United States um but he was seventh at
Bolero where he gained uh 10 and a half
Strokes T to Green he would gained four
and a half of those on approach seems
good it’s not bad uh two and a half
Strokes around the green so when he
missed he was getting up and down taking
care of business uh he’s accurate off
the te good on proximity um so and then
third last week at the Masters where
like yeah maybe the pressure was was off
but he made a hell of a run on Sunday um
and he gained 11 11.4 Strokes total over
the course of the tournament which is no
joke in those conditions yeah um you
know and prior to that he had a 35th at
the Players a 10th at the Genesis uh did
miss the cut at API but I mean before
that he hadn’t missed a cut and God
knows when um so I mean he’s there and
he’s in good form plus 400 for top five
which I think is I think that’s another
goof number right like I think that I
think in his form um I I think plus
400’s awfully long like yeah I mean
really for that’s where I like him I
like him outright here I think that I
think that if there was a course one
time Tommy if there was a course that
made sense for Tommy I think this is
probably one of them every time we say
Tommy Fleet would reminds me of the
movie Snatch with Jason St and his
friend Tommy you like DS one time Tommy
one time do not be a
dumbass where’s me
Carin proper proped proper [ __ ] yeah
that’ll be Tommy on Sunday proper
[ __ ] anybody liking this 20 to 30
range um I’m kind of I’m thinking you’re
going to say Willie Z because he’s a
ball striking
genius uh cam young here has some
Intrigue but his short game is so bad
like real bad like we saw cam young
young short game at Augusta National
exactly how we said it would
happen where yeah oh Cameron young has a
eight-footer for eagle and he made a
bogey dude I can’t I can’t do cam young
I want I want to but I can’t um in this
range uh I I would go back to
Fitzpatrick again this week um
definitely think that that sets up
pretty good 25 seems like a good number
on him uh yeah zalot Taurus
so zalot Taurus is just good at golf
um we’re coming off a ninth uh at the
Masters uh where the argument always
with zalot Taurus is the short game
portion of his game and specifically the
putting well I think that’s like a
stigma that’s just like lingered that
maybe isn’t accurate anymore like when
you watch him putt it’s still sketchy
he’s still not awesome but he’s not
hemorrhaging Strokes on the green um but
and his considering what we saw as far
as everybody struggling last week he
didn’t look that bad no I’d say quite
the opposite like he looked he looked
like he should have been fighting uh at
the top on Sunday I mean I just I think
Willie Z came back from from injury uh
somehow even better than he was before
he left and so uh I like him to get I
like him to take it down here man 28 to
one oh yeah like I I can definitely see
a path of Victory as approach game Stell
accurate guy like all right I have two
guys both 35 to one I both I love both
of them dearly I think you do too I need
you to make a coin flip Choice here
Russell Henley or Justin Thomas Henley
of course is a horse for the course I’m
glad you didn’t make me pick between SEI
wo and one of those guys right yeah I I
know you love sewo sewoo 35 to1 also
decent pick very di specialist yeah but
Russell Henley on Bermuda accuracy
driven course he’s a putting genius like
this this guy second third fourth shot
Russell Henley is masterful uh and then
Justin Thomas second third and fourth
shots second and third shots especially
approach and around the greens Justin
Thomas’s Nails uh I think I I I want to
bet both of them but if I was to bet one
of them who would you
pick I’m going to go Henley like I’m
going to have to like eat eat crow on
this whole Justin Thomas Player of the
Year comeback Player of the Year thing
like he’s just not good at golf it’s not
looking good yeah he’s just like let’s
just call it what it is he’s not good at
golf anymore I like and I I don’t know
when he’s gonna get it on track but I
don’t see it being this week are you
taking seu over
Henley no in that in that circumstance
if I gotta pick between SEIU and Henley
I’ll take Henley um okay that’s what I
thought you would say and that I agree
with you wholeheartedly Russell Henley
is the play here but I do love the
Korean Ric Flair we w
yeah uh I have no interest in Shane
Lowry despite every other expert wanting
to talk about him he is 58th in this
field in Strokes gain putting on Bermuda
it’s the bad that’s really
bad really bad cam Davis I’d rather have
him over Tony F now and that’s just
because he’s a Bermuda guy accurate
player uh more of a stat darling he’s
kind of an Alex norin type uh but Brian
Harmon’s popping up for me talk me out
of Brian Harman I can’t stand watching
him play uh he obviously plays well here
because the course is set up for little
Dink and dunk uh casual players like him
like him that hit the ball 260 and just
putt the lights out like he’s he’s one
of the best Putters on Bermuda we we’ve
seen so what what is going to hold Brian
Harmon back
here nothing other than Brian Haron I
mean honestly he he F he fits the course
he putts incredibly well arguably one of
the best not arguably is one of the best
Putters on tour I think the thing with
Harmon is is that the approach game can
get a little wild and though he’s an
incredible putter he’s not exactly the
best like uh around the green guy like
the wedge game is a little suspect and
the other thing too is with Brian
Harmon’s shot shape um I’m not I’m not
sold that that he sets up for this
specific short track like it just
doesn’t
yeah and he’s played awfully this year
aw yeah he just really is not in the
form and and frankly at 50 to one I have
a hell of a lot more interest in Denny
McCarthy who’s another guy great that
makes sense here excellent putter
excellent approach um this is just one
of those courses Denny rolls like like
the two guys if you if you want to learn
how to putt Like A Champion look at two
guys Cameron Smith and Denny McCarthy
like their putting Strokes are like
velvet like they make
everything if it doesn’t go in it looks
like it’s going in until it
doesn’t but yeah I like going back to
just kind of horses for courses I mean
Denny McCarthy makes sense right like
not incredibly long off the tea he’s not
going to need it to be here he’s got a
good look from almost every approach
bucket and he makes damn near every
putty looks at so I mean it just makes a
lot of sense ran Haron is a lot more
iffy again same type of skill set but
I’m just a lot more sold that Denny’s
just a little more steady yey and and if
saw Denny damn near come back and win
the week before the masters with a back
n28 uh yeah Denny can play a little golf
time to time Denny catches fire
sometimes and you can’t beat him like
oxay got lucky that Denny did a chilly
dip on on the 18th hole in the playoff
but uh like this this is a guy that can
win just about anywhere he plays and
that’s because putting travels it
doesn’t matter where you are if you’re a
worldclass putter you can play any
course and have a chance uh one guy that
does not necessarily have a chance that
I can’t seem to figure out he is the
most enigmatic betting play on this
board I ran the model once and he came
up fourth I ran it again filtered for
Pete Dy design courses and he fell to
dead last
69th when I filtered for Pete die
designs Ben on
what the hell are we doing with Ben on
this
week um I’ll be playing Harris English
at the same
number when’s the last time Harris
English did anything actually I was
really surprised by this I I knew you
had to have something because you said
that name and I my eyebrows went out
like are you serious Harris English
funny you should ask me he’s not even
English he’s an American did you know
that Harris English finished in a t22n
last week
so yeah but did you know that he
finished in that spot with five other
guys that were favorites of the
tournament so it just goes to show you
he was playing that well but more
importantly um a couple of things that
turned me on to him this week over the
last 24 rounds he’s actually 14th in the
field in Fairways gain 10th in the field
for greens and reg um putting’s been
solid not great um but what’s cool about
Harris English is he can catch a hot
hand putting um and his approach game
actually is probably the only thing that
does stay somewhat consistent for him so
Strokes gained around the green he’s
eighth um you know and then what even
was more surprising with Harris
english’s game is he uh was in the top
15 for strokes gained on par fives so I
just think that if you look at what he’s
done over the last 24 rounds he’s
actually been playing like sneaky well
um and again just another guy that is
the type of dude you’re looking for
solid approach game knocks it close can
get the hot hand with the putter
um to answer your question why do I like
him better than Ben on I would like Ben
on at a course that’s wide open off the
te that he could use some of that
distance um Ben on tends to flight the
ball pretty high there’s going to be
some prohibitive shots here where you’re
not going to be able to flight it pretty
high um so I don’t I don’t know this is
not the track I’d play Ben on at I
recognize Ben On’s been playing
excellent golf like don’t get me wrong
um but this is just not not the course
I’m looking to fire him up we’ll get
back to Ben on in the coming weeks
all right so I saw a guy on here that I
really like playing because he makes me
money sometimes Christian bazen hoot
South
African if there’s one thing he doesn’t
have it’s much of a short game around
the greens but he’s a great putter great
approach player what am I missing here
with Christian bazid
hoot he didn’t really hit my radar this
week the way I waited my model I I mean
I recognize same thing you do good good
player I’m not going to tr try and talk
off number one number one Strokes game
putting on Pete die courses number
one yeah like I said I I didn’t put a
lot of stock on what I was seeing with
him this week it’s not because I don’t
think he’s a good golfer but I would let
I would have to defer to you like I
didn’t I didn’t put much research into
CZ this week he’s another guy recognize
he’s playing well but I’ll get back to
him at a different place 70 to one I
think I’m gonna take like a half unit
shot on throw 10 bucks on Christian uh
plus 550 top 10 is intriguing too uh
that that’s interesting because I think
he fits this course really well he he
seems to fit he seems to fit Pete die
designs really well according to my
modeling uh because he jumped up really
high as soon as I filtered for Pete D
hes uh he played well at the Players he
played well other places obviously um
but there are guys down the board here
I’m going to skip quite a bit down after
Bez so do you have anybody in between
there
Tom hogi are you a Tom hogi I was just
about to say did you see are you a
sandwich fan this week so anybody who’s
watched this show knows Tom hogi and I
have a very um love complicated
history uh they fight constantly but
they make up with it with with uh uh
Strokes gained on approach like that
like Connor’s Achilles heel is
overweighting stroke skin Uno Tom hogi
pops up so high in his model that he
can’t ignore it he’s like I can’t quit
you Tom I thought maybe you were going
to say I [ __ ] love sandwiches but
well that that’s a given uh no so Tom
hogi yeah I wrote Tom hogy up this week
um love hate deal I uh play him play him
at your own risk if I’m on him uh it
doesn’t tend to go very well for me yeah
uh but I will say this he opened at uh
um 80 to1 he’s up to 100 to1 now as of a
two minutes ago so for a guy that rided
out uh second to only Scotty sheffler in
approach um and is historically a pretty
decent putter as well um it’s a course
again that makes sense Tom hogi is not
very long off the tea um we don’t really
care about it he is incredibly accurate
uh second like I said an approach to
Scotty second to Scotty an opportunity
gained like
hogi has also been playing really well
this season so I don’t know if he misses
the greens
as as in his world class approach game
is a little bit off how goes his short
game
Connor well I don’t know how you ran it
but but for you know how I ran it so so
for me for me he’s uh out poorly in my
model he’s kind of middle of the pack
but he rated fifth overall for me he was
11th in h Strokes game putting on
Bermuda for me over the last 24 where
his where you’re where you’re right is
his uh his up and down ain’t great like
if he misses the green um we’re going to
have some real problems he’s 69th it’s
all over 69th of 69 in Strokes game
around the green so good um but you know
birdie are better he’s eighth in the
field um bogie avoid 16th in the field
so I kind of like the way he sets up I
mean he’s just playing well he’s playing
good golf are we doing the Eric Van
royan thing this
week I don’t know if I’m betting him yet
he’ll be he’ll be a play in DFS but 110
to one I I think I’m going to pass this
week he he’s intriguing he reachs out
decent but I think I’ll save him for DFS
same as you so should we just drop to
Chandler Phillips and call a night or
yeah that’s what I was goingon to say
chandler Phillips 300 to one definitely
definitely definitely throw some bucks
on that guy he’ll have his fly swatter
swatting uh yeah Eric Barnes Eric Barnes
is out there down there at what two he’s
also at 300 to one so two guys right
there
um are you g to throw a thousand to one
on Kevin kizner five bucks 100% like if
somebody gives you a thousand to one
it’s worth five bucks kiz is gonna play
the entire round miked up because he’s
part of the broadcast crew and playing
double duty this week you said Duty what
do you think of Jake
nap I don’t know and it’s he’s got the
Firepower I don’t know if he has the
bogey avoidance to hang around this
place you know you and I pointed out out
with him that I think the perception is
he’s this bomber guy he’s not and well
he is yeah but that’s not how he’s been
getting it done it’s the absolute piss
out of the ball but yeah I don’t I don’t
know if I the odds are great like he’s
getting disrespected this week on the
180 to one I think I’ll throw a top 20
on him because he’s got the Firepower if
he’s if he’s hitting Fairways which is a
big if this week then I think he does
fine but top 10 plus 12 big if big
if that’s that’s going to find its way
to my card for sure he’s definitely
going to be in the DFS pool for sure
um’s try not to slam trunks Conor we
neither one of us slammed trunks last
week it was a solid DFS week uh the
money didn’t flow in for me because I
had too many guys who made the cut but
didn’t do anything
else let’s try to better ourselves at
the Royal Bank of Canada Harbor
Town town
the club
is this would be a
[Music]
wrestling I have a feeling we’re g to
talk about a lot of the same guys so
Connor who’s leverage in the top
tier H isn’t that the question of the
minute pretty much Rory mroy 4.4
projected
woof I mean we love Rory we’re both huge
mooy fans but this is not his type of
golf course it’s not his his wedge game
has been so
atrocious what would you say Rory’s type
of golf course is right now uh caralis
punana in the Dominican at 7600 yards he
would win that thing easily
leftand he if he could play in Dubai
again he would do
great um yeah joking aside though the Le
The Leverage up there is decisively Rory
at 112 4.4% projected uh colore Kawa
would be your next play if you’re going
aage I like it I 10 flat 11% perfect um
I think this is a spot where if um I’ll
probably tread lightly with Scotty just
because the risk of withdrawal um in 22%
projected right now now too high yeah it
just seems to me that if something goes
on or or the wife gives birth and he’s
out of here like boxing out 22% of the
field right off the Jump because they
played Scotty and I’m saving $3,000
makes a lot of sense yeah smart uh I’ll
have a little bit of Xander and
obviously oberg Patrick Klay we didn’t
talk about on the betting side but
Patrick Klay rates out extremely well
here because he’s played well here he
plays well at P die golf courses his
recent form however has been very bad uh
this guy seems to be a little bit out of
sorts this season but I mean it’s still
Patrick kley we we keep talking about
him as if he’s a bygone player but we’ve
seen this guy play well at this type of
golf course many many
times I Klay is a lot like Xander for me
I just I don’t I can’t Envision a
situation where they’re going to put it
together and win like they’re both like
such similar golfers which with such
like besties which makes it funny and
like they’re just underwhelming like you
look at Xander every time Xander is
within Striking Distance he gags it away
and Klay is really kind of the same way
except that Klay is in position to win a
lot less than Xander is somehow so yeah
interesting uh Tommy Fleetwood not your
best DFS scorer but 9,800 that’s nice I
will play the [ __ ] out of that we had a
question about maxom in the comments I
think Max Homa is plenty good enough to
be in the DFS pool uh I don’t think he
wins here because I mean his approach
game’s great but he’s been super up and
down his Highs are very high his lows
are very
low if I could get hom at
like
8,800 I’d play a lot of
hom
9700 9700 I can’t I can’t do it like I B
Patrick is a better play at 96 am I
right right yeah I think so and then
like another guy we didn’t talk about in
uh in betting is is Windham Clark
actually like I would like him better on
a course where distance uh and had a
little less emphasis around around the
green
but he really he really is such an
excellent approach player when he’s
on he can put the lights out and you go
back to like the thing we’ve been saying
for a couple weeks now is if you take
Scotty Sheffer um out of the PGA
windham’s got like another couple of
wins under his belt at this point in the
season so pretty much yeah he’s he’s
playing as well as anybody uh Willie Z
is definitely in the pool uh I think I’m
going to skip the gala this week even
that short game’s awesome his off the te
game is erratic which will kill him at
this type of golf course uh I’ll skip
cam young and Tony Fen out and Shane
Lowry in DFS Shane Lowry can’t putt uh
Justin Thomas probably makes the pool
but at low exposure Cory Conor’s no
[ __ ] way am I playing him in a course
that requires good short game uh Sam
Burns I will play Sam Burns for sure at
that price 88,200 that’s where we want
uh maxom to be is it not Sam Burns and
maxom very similar golfers and we give
Sam Burns very little credit for being a
good golfer especially with the short
game yeah Sam Burns has got the baby
issue though too so I don’t know I
I I’m I’m worried I’m worried with
Sheffer and burns that we don’t get a
full tournament you know what’s great
about Sam Burns is you can spend less
money and get Russell Henley SI Kim
Jason day Brian Harmon Denny McCarthy
they’re all right there in the low
eights and high sevens therefore you
don’t have to make that choice if you
don’t feel great about Sam Burns don’t
play him what do you uh what do you
think about our question from the
chat got Justin Thomas Ben on Xander and
Henley and PJ fantasy I think you’re
sitting pretty good because J JT and JT
and Henley for sure are going to play
well here Xander is solid every week
he’s going to get top 10 Ben on is the
one that scares us both because he’s
either going to be top five here or he’s
going to miss this cut in a blaze of
glory we don’t know like that’s he’s the
enigmatic play we talked about this
earlier where he run it one way he’s
fourth in the model run it the other way
and he’s dead last so I don’t know about
Ben on but the other three guys I think
you should feel pretty comfortable that
you’re going to do fine this week yeah
for sure and if it’s like DFS um I’m
guessing that based on those guys that
you got you probably have somewhere in
the mid 8500 is left I probably renw
thank you so much for loving yeah thank
you by the way I missed that
part well we’re glad to have you come
come and talk to us every week what a
great Irish name yeah us Irish we got to
stick
together but I was gonna say if you’re
playing DFS um with that roster you just
laid out you probably got some money in
the mid eights I would probably I would
probably look at adding like a Sam Burns
or a sewo
Kim if you’ve got the spend go up to
Willie z
um maybe throw a couple of darts at sah
Heath I’d like them better in a place it
you know a little less or a little more
little less accuracy off the te but that
would be an option all right so Chris
Kirk Christian Baden hoot and JT Poston
you can also go down to Harris English
at 7 7500 that you talked about English
not the best DFS play cuz he’s a really
steady yey guy doesn’t really light the
fireworks but uh JT Poston and Chris
Kirk do score lots of points Bez another
steady ye guy like English where this
this tier is pretty strong I think my I
think my player pool is going to be a
little wider this week because of the
values here not because I love these
golfers but because their prices are
right I don’t I don’t want to miss a
value play where it’s
there yeah I don’t have much interest in
poson um I’ll have some Bez I’ll have
some English I will dabble with Taylor
Mor again he hasn’t completely screwed
me yet not yet we’re waiting for it um
yab bombs I I was just about to say I
probably I probably get down more this
way I actually have a lot of interest in
Brendan Todd at 7100 the Todd father um
for all the reasons that we keep playing
Brendan Todd and not
related accuracy accuracy you play the
toddfa when accuracy is at a premium
that’s that’s the
rule and my boy Hog’s down here shut up
I’d rather play Matsu pavon there’s your
beer bet toi versus the Frenchman who is
a very solid player and looked pretty
solid at Augusta by the way all over it
I will take that you’re you’re gonna
take the the hogi versus Pavone mark it
down let’s
go so yeah in the in the sevens in the
sevens s have rounded out so we can get
into sixes um in the sevens for me uh
it’s going to be English Todd and hogi
okay I think I I’m with you there I’m
just going to broaden it out a little
bit more because I like I like the value
on a lot of those guys uh 6,900 on Kurt
kyama interesting play
here I don’t know it’s kind of a
borderline play for me I I’m I’m
obviously a fan so you can’t make I’m
just yeah there see Tim Tim knows Tim
knows what do you what do you think
Connor kittama in the pool or
not uh I’m gonna take a pass on kittama
this week just too much accuracy
requirement um what about Eric Cole
because he’s
accurate yeah what’s weird about Cole is
I want to play him so bad but he’s been
so bad yeah what’s up with that I’m
gonna play him I think I think this is
the bounceback week Eric Van royan
Justin Rose McKenzie Hughes Nick Taylor
I’m playing all of them
I think I’m going to be heavy towards
the top in a lot of lineups so I’ll be
down here quite a bit um yep yep yep it
it’s probably for me it’s hadwin van
royan Cole um I’ll fire some shots at
nap again our Looney friend Adam
hadwin approach make some putts get out
of here like I think Nick Taylor’s gonna
do better as the Canadian representative
McKenzie Hugh is another canadi this a
Canadian tier right here in the high
sixes uh
Grayson Murray another just like loading
up Adam senson I not playing Svenson
senson killed me this season like
absolutely killed me Adam senson cost me
so much money this season I will not
play him even if there’s a fire what do
you
think what do you think a ecro at 6400
at 177% projected well he is averaging
72 fantasy points a week which is by far
the highest in this tier I think I’ll
skip him on the basis of chalk you don’t
need to be eating chalk down here just
Lord that’s not not what we do here
that’s not what we do here I would
rather play not up in here I would
rather play uh Chandler Phillips 6,000
flat Eric Barnes 6,000 flat those are
smart plays no chalk whatsoever uh you
heard it here first Eric Barnes Chandler
Phillips future stars on tour we’re
going to keep chanting the those names
and when it happens we’ll clip the audio
from this show and last year’s shows
wherever they were mentioned and say we
told you
[Laughter]
so all right at least for sure you’ll
say I told you so definitely uh what is
who’s going to win this thing other than
Scotty a nons Scotty winner and what the
winning score will
be I’ll go Fleetwood at
17 oh fleetwood’s going to get his first
first PGA Tour win you heard it here
first I think it’s going to
be Colin morawa at 19 under
par first round
leader I’m gonna go with Willie Z that’s
what I’m thinking yeah let’s be let’s be
aligned I’ll go Wily wi Z first run
leader because willly Z was almost my
out right pick almost Let’s Go drum roll
hat
pick all hail the
Hat the Hat has selected with the first
overall pick number 29 in Bow and M
Model 29 let’s see who’s oh get the [ __ ]
out of
here number 29 in my model is none other
than Harris English wow what a what a
serendipitous hat oh damn you hat hey
the Hat pick has played all the both
weeks we’ve played it uh my number 29 is
somebody we didn’t talk about and it’s
JT Poston the postman so not
bad ah that hat could be on to something
the Hat’s been on a bit of a heater so
JT posed number one in this field on Par
Four is between 4 and 450 which is a
very strong metric here and number four
on Strokes gained around the greens so
JT be careful when you’re talking about
the
postman this the first time the Hat has
picked one of the players that we’ve
written up so it is tune in next week to
see if I burn the hat for the Zurich
you’re gonna have to have a how are we
gonna do the Hat pick for the
Zurich that’s a good question we’re have
to pick two
numbers but then you or no we just say
who’s paired with the person we pick
right yeah yep or I could or we could do
price ranges or something I’ll figure
I’ll figure I’ll figure something out so
Tim they you heard it here Harris
English and or JT Poston for the Hat
pick love it join us next week for the
team event the Zurich Classic of noin
we’ll have some jambalaya some beet and
team golf because everybody’s talking
about team golf these days and if you
like two fat Irishmen getting drunk
because uh it’s a goofy event to talk
about you’re in for a treat
all right from Conor Coughlin I of
course am B MC Brer for in between media
make sure you like subscribe Jingle the
Bell this has been the 19th Hole hit the
outro B hit the outro
[Music]
