Lakers-Nuggets Predictions: Will LeBron & LA FINALLY break Denver curse vs. Jokic? | Hoops Tonight

Jason Timpf shares his predictions for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Los Angeles Lakers’ matchup with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Denver Nuggets. With Denver having eight straight wins over Los Angeles, including a 4-0 sweep in last season’s Western Conference Finals, Jason discusses the key matchups the Lakers must win in order to turn the tide in this matchup. Later, Jason breaks down film from prior Lakers-Nuggets games and shares his series prediction.

Timeline:
00:00 – Nuggets have owned Lakers
02:48 – Difference with this year’s Lakers
04:55 – LA’s Offense vs. Denver Defense
11:12 – LeBron is playing “Top 3” basketball
14:04 – How AD can attack Jokic
15:06 – Keys for LA offense & Denver defense
17:59 – Denver Offense vs. LA Defense
20:00 – LeBron & AD vs. Jokic & Gordon
21:30 – Denver Offense vs. LA Defense
23:57 – Jason’s Series Prediction
26:55 – Lakers-Nuggets Film Study

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all right welcome to Hoops tonight here
at the volume happy Wednesday everybody
hope all of you guys are having an
incredible week well we have another
series preview for you guys today after
last night the Los Angeles Lakers beat
the New Orleans Pelicans and so we’re
going to be breaking down the four game
sweep in the Western Conference finals
last year the Denver Nuggets verse the
Los Angeles Lakers you guys know the
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Hoops tonight and last but not least
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leaving mailbag questions in the YouTube
comments so we can keep H hitting some
mailbags over the course of the rest of
this week all right on that note let’s
talk some basketball so the Nuggets won
the season series three to zero I
believe they’ve won eight in a row
dating back to their final regular
season matchup from last year the four
game sweep and then three and 0 this
year in terms of per possession basis
this year in three games the Denver
Nuggets are getting 125 points per 100
possessions and the Lakers are getting
115 points per 100 possessions but most
of that has been in the clutch uh in
seven minutes of clutch basketball this
season and again clutch qualifies as
anything inside of five minutes inside
of Five
Points and in seven minutes of clutch
basketball this season the nuggets have
outscored the Lakers
27-10 so that’s a pretty much a beat
down in that environment last year in
the postseason in 11 minutes of clutch
bask basketball they outscored the
Lakers 28 to3 that’s basically been the
bit the difference between these two
teams in that matchup the Lakers they
are capable of attacking Denver in the
paint they get a bunch of good shots
they keep the game close and then late
they just can’t keep up with them in the
half court and the Nuggets just execute
and pull away it’s a problem that that
the Nuggets give most teams in the
league but the Lakers in particular it’s
not even one of those things where it’s
like oh they get us two out of three
times no they get them every single time
and that’s been the main Dynamic that
swung this match up over the course of
the last couple of years
um last year it was mostly the defense
they held the Lakers to a 68.4 offensive
rating in crunch time during the four-
game sweep this year it’s mostly about
Denver’s offense during the regular
season they’re scoring 193 points per
100 clutch possessions in those three
games so that’s where the difference has
been on the gambling front the nuggets
are minus 310 to win the series
according to draft kings that is the
biggest first round favorite so far of
the Five series that are set by far the
Cleveland Cavaliers at minus 195 over
the over the Orlando Magic are the
second biggest favorite that we have in
the first round so Vegas views Denver as
a shoin to move on the biggest
difference between this series and last
year is that the Lakers are much more of
an offensive-minded team than they were
last year to give you an idea last year
the line of delineation was the
Westbrook trade after the West BR trade
the Lakers went 18-8 they were second
best record in the league over that span
they were 14th in offense and second in
defense it was a defensive-minded team
and they rode that to wins versus the
Grizzlies and the Warriors before they
went ran into that nuggets
Juggernaut this year for me the line of
delineation is January 7th and basically
what it was was they completely let go
of the Rope after the inseason
tournament and that was a game against
the Clippers that kind of re-engaged the
Lakers and from that point on in the
season they went 30 and 16 they were the
fourth best record in the league over
that 46 game span and they were third in
offense and 22nd in defense so to look
at that again they were second in
defense 14th in offense last year in
their stretch run this year third in
offense 22nd in defense so fundamentally
different type of team one little line
of uh of optimism for Lakers fans who
are worried about their defense because
I do think the Lakers are a little bit
better defensively than their numbers
show they have a 104 defensive rating in
their last 10 games with Anthony Davis
on the floor which is very good and you
saw the highle defense that they showed
versus the Pelicans for stretches uh
that’s trending in the right direction
but even though to to kind of like uh
tie it all together I do think the
Lakers are a little better than they
were last year and so from that
standpoint I I would be shocked if
Denver swept them I we can we could skip
ahead to the end here I’m going to be
picking Denver to win the series
everybody should even if you think the
Lakers have a chance to win win the
series it is the unlikely scenario
compared to Denver holding serve and
moving on so I I don’t I would be
surprised if I saw anybody legitimately
saying they thought the Lakers were
likely to win the series I’m picking
Denver that said I don’t think they’re
just going to run rough shot over them
the way that they did last year I think
it will be a longer series and that is
the main reason why I just think it’s
better Laker team LeBron’s better the
offense is way better we’ll get into
some of the details here in just a
minute so let’s start with the Lakers on
offense third in offense over the last
40 six games like I mentioned how it’s a
Relentless paint attack in deadly
three-point shooting the Lakers are
second in points in the paint per 100
possessions since January 7th they’ve
been second for the entire season really
uh but they’re also shooting much better
that’s been the main thing that kind of
pushed them over the top they’re
shooting
39.6% from three in that 46 game span
second best Mark in the league behind
the Boston Celtics who I think are at
39.9% so they’re both right there around
40% the Lakers have been one of the best
three-point shooting teams in the league
just imagine five out sets guys rolling
and cutting towards the paint tons of
shooting on the perimeter everybody in
the lineup except for Anthony Davis is a
knockdown three-point shooter ruy hamura
is a knockdown three-point shooter
LeBron James is a knockdown three-point
shooter so is DLo so is Austin and so
that kind of is the foundation of what
makes the offense work screening and
rolling and cutting knocking down shots
when the defense reacts and and they’re
really good at playing Advantage
Basketball typically what they’ll do is
they’ll run some kind of horn set
usually some kind of three-man action
around the top of the key whether it’s a
double drag or whether it’s a screen the
screener type of action you guys will
see some examples when we get into our
film session here but they’ll run some
sort of three-man action to get an
advantage once they get their advantage
from there they just play Advantage
Basketball and like LeBron can attack
Closeouts Ru hamura can attack Closeouts
Austin Ando can attack Closeouts and
obviously Anthony Davis cleans up
everything around the basket he’s also
first in the NBA this year in Second
Chance points that’s where he gets a lot
of his damage to get the defense in
rotation ad will clean up messes at The
Rim when guys miss shots so matchups
that I’m expecting with the Lakers on
the ball uh Lakers on the offensive end
kyp will guard D’Angelo Russell to start
the series Jamaal Murray will guard
Austin Reeves Michael Porter Jr will
guard ruy hamura Aaron Gordon will guard
LeBron James and Nicole jic will guard
Anthony Davis let’s go through some of
these specific matchups so so kcp is
there’s a reason why why they’re most
likely going to put kyp on D’Angelo
Russell I do think Austin Reeves is a
better allaround basketball player than
D’Angelo Russell he’s a substantially
better defensive player and a really
good connective piece on the offensive
end of the floor but dowlo does have a
higher offensive ceiling he’s a better
shooter who can get hotter and he’s a
better kind of like playmaker in pick
and roll and so you can do more damage
to the Lakers offense on the front end
by putting your best perimeter d uh
defender on D’Angelo Russell that’s why
I think they’ll put KP on him so the
Jamal Murray on Austin Reed’s matchup is
going to be key because last year one of
the big swing factors was the Lakers
ended up playing a lot of d schroer
especially because DLo was playing like
crap and because they were trying to
find somebody that could reasonably
guard Jamal Murray and so the Lakers had
a lot of success with Austin LeBron
two-man game last year and then
basically what they did is they switched
Jamal Murray off of Austin and put him
on to Dennis Schroeder because Dennis is
not as good of a movement shooter or off
ball player and they were able to kind
of get by with it so one of the key
parts of this series is going to be can
the Lakers keep Austin and DLo on the
floor because if they can keep Austin
and D on the floor then they can run
their Austin Lebron 2oman game or DLo
LeBron Twan game depending on who Jamal
Murray is is guarding and keep Jamal
Murray engaged defensively you guys will
see when we get to the film one of the
biggest things the Nuggets will do is
basically tuck Jamaal Murray on the
worst offensive player on the other team
and try to buy him as much rest during
the game as possible during the latest
matchup that they had in March down the
stretch the Lakers went with Cam redish
something that I God I hope we do not
see in this series because he can’t
guard Jamal Murray and he just nukes
their offense
but Jamal Murray was guarding Cam redish
and literally just standing around and
watching stuff happen while the other
guys played offense and so big shock he
had the leg strength to rise up and make
shots on the other ends of end of the
floor so one of the key matchups of this
series is going to be can Austin Reeves
and D’Angelo Russell remain on the floor
together so that Jamal Murray has to
guard a good offensive player if Jamal
Murray has to guard a good offensive
player the Laker offense will have more
uh uh resiliency in terms of holding up
over the course of the series
specifically the Jamal Murray on Austin
Reeves Dynamic which is where this
series will start they last year they
were doing a lot of pick and Pops so
like Austin’s a good movement shooter so
Austin would set the screen slip to the
three-point line as Jamal Murray’s
hedging uh Lebron would throw the pass
to Austin Austin would hit a three this
year the Guard the guard screens on
LeBron are more slipping into open space
a big part of that’s just the spacing
provided by their five out but you’ll
see Austin set screens and then slip
into like the short roll area and then
there he’ll either score if he’s a you
know open enough or he’ll make reads and
kind of pick them apart from there but
like as long as Jamal Murray is on
Austin Reeves expect Austin Reeves to be
involved in a lot of uh actions early
and often in this series I think
honestly one of the biggest factors for
Denver defensively in the series is
going to be their rotations meaning how
good and sharp they are in their
Closeouts chasing guys off the
three-point line multiple efforts to
contain multiple actions because I do
think the Lakers are going to be able to
get them in rotation a lot more than
they did last year they just have lot
more offensive skill and continuity and
they’re just better within their offense
this year so I do think they’re going to
be able to get Denver in rotation
Denver’s just going to have to do their
job in rotation with their athleticism
within their game plan funneling guys in
the right direction chasing the right
guys off the line closing out short on
the guys that you’re supposed to guys
like Gabe Vincent guys like Anthony
Davis guys like Spencer dinwoody for
instance game plan discipline is going
to be big there Aaron Gordon on LeBron
this is where these playoff matchups uh
kind of show where Aaron Gordon’s value
is like LeBron James Kawhi Leonard and
Kevin Durant are the three best forwards
in the Western Conference and he matches
up really well with all three of them
and then if you get out of the the
Western Conference and you run into a
Boston or you run into a Miami or you
run into a Milwaukee and it’s Jimmy or
Tatum or or jannis and tenmo he matches
up with those guys too he has the
strength to absorb the bullyball from
those guys and this and the length and
quickness to bother the pull-up shooting
of those guys I’m going to show you a
bunch of examples on film of how Aaron
Gordon can like beat beat LeBron to
spots absorb the contact in the chest
when LeBron tries to kind of dislodge
him and force him into tough Fade Away
jump shots it’s it’s just a it’s one of
the few guys in the league that can like
actually guard LeBron incredibly well
and LeBron’s jump shot is going to be
key in this regard so last year in the
regular season LeBron was getting 0.93
points per catch and shoot jumper 0.87
points per pull-up jumper last year in
the playoffs LeBron was getting 0.96
points per catch and shoot jumper 0.6
seven points per pull-up jumper so he
was just a bad jump shooter all season
last year from the regular season all
the way through the playoffs this year
in the regular season LeBron was getting
1.25 points per catch and shoot jumper
he was one of the best catch and shoot
guys in the league and and
0.94 points per pull-up jumper Which is
far more respectable than the 0.67 that
he was shooting last year and so he’s
actually trending up on the pull-up jump
shot as well post All-Star break where I
personally think LeBron’s playing at an
extremely high level will get to that in
a second but uh since the All-Star break
LeBron’s getting 1.03 points per pull-up
jumper too so he’s been a very efficient
pull-up jump shooter in that span he’s
just a much better jump shooter overall
than he was last year they’re going to
need him to make shots in this series
LeBron is probably the biggest point of
optimism for any Laker fan in this
series after the All-Star break LeBron
James is averaging 28 points eight
rebounds and 10 assist per game on 58%
from the field which is absurd and 45%
from three he’s the only player in the
league post deadline to be averaging at
least 27 points per game on at least 50%
from the field and at least 40% from
three you just watched him in two D like
super important games against the New
Orleans Pelicans on the road just
utterly dominate them I personally think
he’s been the third best player in the
league post uh post All-Star break and I
would pick him as the third best playoff
player going into this playoff run that
is the level that LeBron is playing at
right now especially with Giannis being
injured and with Kawhi Leonard being
injured I would put joic at one I’d put
Luca at two and I’d put LeBron James at
three that’s the level he’s at and he’s
been there for a couple of months that
is where that is where the point of
optimism is right because last year he
was hurt and even when he wasn’t hurt to
start the season he wasn’t this level of
player he was struggling to shoot just
wasn’t at the same level LeBron is just
better now than he was last year that’s
crazy it doesn’t make any sense I don’t
really have an explanation for you other
than he just got in the gym and Polished
some things up and had another level of
motivation but LeBron is just at a
different level this year last year
obviously like with the foot injury too
it just kind of exacerbated that I
thought Jamal Murray just straight up
outplayed LeBron James in the playoffs
last year that is something that I don’t
think will happen this year I think
LeBron will outplay Jamal Murray or at
least meet him at that that top tier
Superstar level and obviously if Jamal
can meet everybody there then that’s
that’s just part of what makes Denver so
damn good right but I do think that
LeBron outplaying Jamal would go a long
way toward stretching out the series
from the four game sweep that it was to
something that’s more competitive yican
ad ad just hasn’t been able to score on
him one-on-one in the February game uh
the middle game of the three games they
played this year ad did get some buckets
against him in the post but for the most
part in their matchups it hasn’t worked
out well for him ad’s biggest weakness
as a player is he never developed a
consistent over-the-top shot whether
it’s you know something in the post or
something in terms of a jump shot and so
he’s had times where he can make it but
it’s never been consistent and then he
can’t bully Nico yic the way he does
some of the other centers around the
league and since he’s bulked up he’s not
fast enough to go around him anymore so
he just can’t really score on him
one-on-one so really it’s going to come
down to punishing joic and help that
means when yic is in ball screens ad0
has to hit his floaters and His short
jump shots that he gets in pick and roll
and then he’s got to attack the
offensive glass effectively Anthony
Davis got 342 Second Chance points this
year which is the most in the NBA Rudy
goar was second Nicole yic was third so
that’s where Anthony Davis can be
impactful offensively scoring in pick
and roll and then obviously uh attacking
the offensive glass keys for both teams
for the Nuggets you got to prevent
D’Angelo Russell from getting easy looks
and getting confident last year the
Nuggets snatched D’Angelo Russell’s
heart early in the series and it
fundamentally changed the entire Dynamic
of the series that is something they
have to do again if they can do that
again it could get ugly and then we
could be looking at a sweep again
because the Laker offense when DLo goes
off the uh the court does go down a
level because of the lack of that kind
of like shooting upside right and then
you just go from having five really good
offensive players to four really good
offensive players and a guy that you can
close out short on and things aren’t as
effective and so just kcp getting super
physical with DLo and and getting him
off to a rough start in this series I
think is going to be key being sharp in
rotation like I said the Lakers are
really good at getting that ball to the
second side of the floor and generating
closeout opportunities for their
offensive players all five of their guys
can uh in starting lineup can capitalize
on that type of Advantage got some guys
off the bench who can do it too so solid
Closeouts and contests will be key for
Denver and then they have to keep
Anthony Davis off the offensive glass
this is going to be more about Michael
Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon because I do
think yic is going to get pulled into
help situations quite a bit in their
pick and roll coverages so your 2610
guys at the three and four are just
going to have to clean up the glass on
the Lakers front ad’s got to make shots
and pick and roll he’s going to get
looks he got has to knock him down they
have to win the drive and kick battle
like I said LeBron is going to get the
uh the ball to the opposite side of the
floor he’s going to generate those
closeout situations so ruie DLo and
Austin are gonna have to hit shots and
they’re going to have to attack
Closeouts and hit higher level closeout
shots when they get into late clock
situations backup guard shooting I think
Spencer Den Woody and Gabe Vincent are
going to play a little bit in this
series because of needing to find
somebody that can guard Jamal Murray and
so those guys can go ice cold from three
and struggle offensively and so getting
at least one of those guys to be
impactful offensively so that they can
play him as an option on Jamal Murray I
think is going to be key LeBron James
and Anthony Davis have to be able to
score in crunch time they are combined
one for five from the field in clutch
situations against the Nuggets this year
they were one for nine in the playoffs
last year so two for 14 from LeBron
James and AD during the seven game
losing streak against the Nuggets when
the game is within five with less than
five minutes left they have to be better
than that end of story no other way to
put it you need your stars to hit shots
when Jamal Murray and nicoa yic are damn
sure going to hit shots on the other end
of the floor and then lastly got to find
a way to keep Jamal engaged defensively
as much as possible a big part of what
their issue is Jamal Murray just finds a
way to rest on the defensive end and
then he has the fresh legs to knock down
shots that’s where that key Dynamic of
keeping your best offensive players on
the floor and holding up well enough so
that you can make Jamal M Jamal work and
then maybe just maybe he’ll miss some of
those shots and give yourself a better
chance of pulling out a few of those
clutch games moving to the nuggets on
offense uh I think Austin Rees is going
to start on Jamal Murray D’Angelo
Russell will guard cavius Cowell Pope
LeBron James will likely start on
Michael Porter Jr based on the regular
season matchups ruy haimura will likely
guard joic based on the regular season
matchups and Anthony Davis will guard
Aaron Gordon to start the series so
starting with Austin will Austin be able
to do a good enough job Austin is
playing the best defense of his career
as of late by necessity the Lakers did
not bring in a point of attack Defender
at the deadline uh at least not a
starting caliber one and so Austin had
no choice but to basically slot into
that primary point of attack defense
role struggled with it at first but is
really starting to come around as a as a
decent point of attack Defender did a
really good job on C.J McCollum in the
um did a really nice job on CJ McCollum
in those two Pelicans games but on film
from what I saw kind of struggled to
navigate Nicole yic ball screens it’s
been an issue for him so it will be a
challenge but if he can do an okay job
and the Lakers can stay with their
starters in crunch time again gives them
their best chance to score on the other
end and then kind of maintain that
confidence level they need to be able to
win and again like I mentioned before if
they have to go to a Defender the Lakers
instantly become way easier to guard and
things just fall apart from there D’s
off ball attentiveness this is part of
why Denver’s such a bad matchup for
D’Angelo Russell he’s bad off the ball
especially when it comes to locking and
trailing Shooters and watching out for
Cutters and so we saw that just the
other day today against the Golden State
Warriors when Klay Thompson lit him up
DLo just doesn’t stay attentive when
he’s chasing guys off his screens he
gets caught late and gives up too many
open looks he just has to be better end
of story it’s going to be one of the key
factors of the series as I mentioned
that is another way for kcp to play uh
D’Angelo Russell off the floor it’s just
on both ends of the floor pressure
physicality making him struggle
offensively and then on the other end
punishing him consistently Denver should
keep kcp involved in actions a lot early
in the series to try to test D’Angelo
Russell so LeBron guarding Michael
Porter Jr is more about resting than it
is about anything anything else I think
this series eventually needs to tilt
towards LeBron and AD guarding joic and
M or yic and Gordon ruy does a good job
he tries but he just he’s just not
strong enough to deal with Nicole yic
obviously neither is LeBron but he’s
stronger than ruie and can do a better
job than ruie does so like it’s fine if
you want to start the series with LeBron
and M mpj and rest him as much as
possible but especially in crunch time
and potentially for entire games later
in the series LeBron is going to have to
take at least one of Gordon or joic and
they’re going to have to and also I
believe mixing up coverages just in
general as a philosophy the last two
games this regular season in February
and March they almost exclusively went
with ruy on joic and just couldn’t get
any stops so like I get it for Innings
eating but they’re going to have to be
able to uh go to LeBron and AD as much
as possible ruy just can’t guard joic
I’ve got like a half dozen clips that
I’ll show you guys of joic just easily
scoring over the top ru R
haimura ad had some success blocking yic
shots behind ruy but for the most part
the coverage just hasn’t worked keys for
both teams for the Lakers the big thing
I’m going to be calling out on film is
smart help versus dumb help we’re going
to go over that on film but again like
there are guys that you just should
never help off of and then there are
guys that you can help and close out
short on right there are shots that are
high priority shots that are low
priority I’ll show you guys some
examples of bad help and good help when
we get to the film but it’s all going to
be about decision making and game plan
discipline for the Laker off ball
Defenders LeBron and AD like I mentioned
before going to have to take the joic
assignment at some point especially
towards the end of the series Austin and
DLo Austin has to do a credible job on J
on Jamaal Murray to keep their best
offensive lineups on the floor and DLo
has to be attentive off the ball and
then rebounding Denver got an offensive
rebound on 35% of their own misses in
the three matchups this year that’s
insane and it’s been a major problem for
the Lakers throughout this entire
matchup they simply have to hold up
better on the defensive glass to give
you guys an idea Denver dominated 55.8
to 44.2 in rebound percentage this
season last year in the playoffs it was
less bad but it was still bad 51.5 to
48.5 transition defense is going to be a
big one Nicole yic is really good at
identifying when the Lakers don’t have
good floor balance and pushing the ball
up the floor guys like LeBron and AD in
particular have to Sprint back in
transition defense one other thing for
the Lakers because joic didn’t shoot the
ball as well this year I would try a
short close out on him at the
three-point line just just to start the
series and look if he hits a few shots
you adjust but I think you have to try
that just as an opportunity to see if
maybe you can gain some foothold in the
paint uh defending their uh their um the
rest of their offense I would again
close out short on joic at the
three-point line ad help up like I’ll
give you an example there’s a shot that
I’ll show you guys that Jamaal Murray
hits over Austin Reeves uh in crunch
time of their last game this year with
how joic has been shooting the ball this
year I’d rather have joic take a three
than Jamal Murray take a short fade away
that I think he’s going to make you know
over 50% of the time and so essentially
like specifically with this match up to
start the series I’d try closing out
short yes I know yic is capable of
making them maybe he does if he does the
Lakers can adjust but I think you got to
try it on the Nuggets front Again Play
DLo off the floor and you’ll give your
defense its best chance to slow down the
Lakers so on the offensive end keep
kavus Cowell Pope involved in actions
both on and off the ball to test D’s
attentiveness and see if you can get the
quick hook there or get to get his
minutes cut down pushing transition
every single time Anthony Davis goes to
the offensive glass that’s always been a
big Advantage for the nuggets in this
matchup attack the offensive glass as
much as possible as well uh yourself
that’s been a huge part of Denver’s
success against the Lakers is the Lakers
can’t keep them off the offensive glass
and then shot making once again is going
to be key Jamal making shots over the
smaller Laker guards and the Nicole yic
because I think the Lakers will try
closing on short at him to start yic has
to hit those pick and pop threes
my prediction I’m picking the nuggets in
six I think this is going I I like I
think this being a first round series
makes it less likely for the Lakers to
let go of the Rope right they don’t get
to hang their hat on we made it to the
Western Conference Finals no if you lose
this series it’s a first round exit I
think that will allow a little bit more
desperation from the Lakers to try to
hold up I think LeBron being better as
well as an evolution of their five out
offense gives the Lakers substantially
more offensive Firepower than they had
last year especially LeBron as a jump
shooter so I think the Lakers are going
to get a game or two off of them uh to
put it simply though joic and Murray are
a better Duo than LeBron James and
Anthony Davis in my opinion at this
phase in their careers and kcp Michael
Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon are a better
Trio of role players than Austin DLo and
ruy haimura so I just think the nuggets
are a better team and I think they’re
going to win but the pathway for the
Lakers that little crack in the door
that they can try to to uh uh um forc
their way through got to win game one I
think they need to give themselves a
sense of belief that they can win the
series I think the worst case scenario
would be them getting out executed in
crunch time of game one I think if that
happened it would just be too much of a
gut blow for them to try to recover from
uh but they I think winning game one is
key for them and then I think they’re
going to need to win every single home
game in order to try to pull it out in
six I think that’s their pathway but
they’re going to need unbelievable top
tier Superstar performances from both
LeBron James and Anthony Davis and they
need I think they need Jamal Murray to
fail to reach that level I think they
need Jamal Murray and I I think you can
do this by wearing him out defensively
and just kind of crossing your fingers
and praying he misses shots but if Jamal
Murray plays like the 16th best player
in the world in this postseason instead
of the eighth best player in the world
in this postseason that I think is a an
example of where the Firepower Dynamic
could shift towards the Lakers
especially if ad plays well now a lot of
that is unlikely scenario right like I
think Darin ham needs to make necessary
adjustments along the way do I trust
darham to do that no right so like a lot
of that is unlikely but if there was a
path for the Lakers that’s what it looks
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all righty I have 20 29 clips for our
film session today that we’re going to
go to let’s go ahead and get started
this is an example of the Lakers base
coverage that they go to so you’re going
to see again after the ball goes up
you’re going to see Anthony Davis go to
Aaron Gordon you’re going to see Ruby
haimura guard Nicole yic and you’re
gonna see LeBron James on Michael Porter
Jr and you’re going to see an easy early
example here of this kind of
configuration so again ad is going to be
helping off of Aaron Gordon joic is
reading the here but he’s just going to
get to an easy little pop shot over the
top of ruy just never really struggled
to get to his spots and make easy shots
in the paint against
ruy here’s an example of Aaron Gordon’s
individual defense against LeBron James
obviously there’s the fadea away but
watch LeBron’s going to hit the Jets on
a little Baseline move here he’s going
to spin Baseline and really try to
overpower Gordon and watch Aaron Gordon
absorb the blow boom absorbs the blow
and forces him to turn again now
LeBron’s going to go to his right
shoulder fade I hate the shot from
LeBron he hasn’t been good at it really
since the 2020 like he was good at it in
like 2017 to 2020 those were the the
stretches when he was good at it but he
hasn’t really been good at it since this
is a shot that requires a ton of lift
he’s actually shooting just 26% on right
shoulder Fades from the left block this
season but Aaron Gordon forces an ugly
miss here in
airball here’s an example of the Lakers
base coverage actually
working so uh ruy does a really nice job
of making
joic spin back into Anthony Davis this
is about knowing where your help is so
here ruy has to understand Anthony Davis
is on his left-hand side so his main
priority is he needs to cut off the
Baseline now you could see ruy kind of
skewing towards that Baseline side but
yic is going to spin Baseline anyway
look at ruy Hop way off to that Baseline
side that forces yage to Pivot back and
Anthony Davis is able to get there again
that coverage is largely not worked but
an example of it
working here’s an example of making
Jamal Murray work on defense now again
as we see the matchups Michael Porter
Jor is guarding ruie joic is on ad
Gordon’s on LeBron this will be kcp on
D’Angelo Russell but also notice they’re
putting their best perimeter defender on
DLo that’s kind of like what I was
talking about earlier that’s going to be
their strategy this is going to end in a
switch now ruy has Jamal Murray on him
and ruy just takes him immediately with
a spin move along the Baseline side
again not only is that an efficient play
but that’s a way that you can make Jamal
Murray work on the defensive end of the
floor and again I don’t think you can
even do that unless you have five good
offensive players and that’s why it’s
going to be so key to keep D’Angelo
Russell on the floor as much as possible
or at least D’Angelo Russell has to play
well enough to stay on the floor as much
as possible here’s an example of smart
help versus dumb help I talked about
this with the Lakers they need to make
sure that they’re helping off the right
guys in the right situations so Jamal
Murray is going to be coming off of a a
classic little ball screen from yic and
he’s going downhill LeBron James is
there in help LeBron is helping there
with Aaron Gordon DLo can become the low
man DLo can drop down and tag Gordon
which will force Christian Brown to
shoot a three right this is Michael
Porter Jr this is the one guy you don’t
help off of Anthony Davis digs down on
Jamal now you’ve got one of the best
three-point Shooters in the league wide
open Jamal Murray makes the read Michael
Porter Jr knocks down the shot so that’s
an example of dumb help that’s help that
doesn’t ser any purpose and leaves the
wrong guy
open here’s another example of joic
scoring easily over ruy haimura big one
here is yic got blocked on his last
postup attempt again R against ruie so
now watch he doesn’t like the spacing
here he’s going to clear Gordon out but
he doesn’t want a uh Anthony Davis to be
able to easily get to one of his layup
finishes so instead of taking something
towards the rim he’s going to take a
short fade away this is a really high
percentage shot that Anthony Davis can’t
really help
on that’s also an example of why I think
uh LeBron James is eventually going to
have to get into the mix Ruby Hur just
can’t really guard just can’t guard yic
at Le not even make him slightly
uncomfortable whereas LeBron might be
able
to here’s another example of the Austin
ruy Twan game another switch ruy settles
for a jumper here but I would like to
see them just kind of go to this action
a lot to make Jamal Murray
guard here’s yic scoring over ruy
again little wedge screen to get post
position just easy gets to his footwork
knocks down that little left shoulder
fade here’s an example of where that can
go wrong for joic again this is another
Anthony Davis block along the backline
but watch joic is not taking it Over the
Top Shot he’s going towards the rim
notice his last two were turnaround Fade
Away over his right shoulder turnaround
hook shot over his left shoulder from
distance this is going to be an
aggressive move towards the basket and
AD is going to be able to get to
it and see he goes to the rim ad gets
there that’s where that that’s where
like for joic just as an adjustment for
him when Anthony Davis is in help he’s
going to have to take over the top
shots all righty so here is another
example of uh a help that I think
Spencer dinwoody have thrown but didn’t
so this would have been smart help had
Spencer did it but he did not do it so
Spencer is guarding pyton Watson and ify
shooter right so pton Watson is going to
go stand in the corner Spencer is the in
best position to help here Spencer and
ruy are the helpers right jic is working
against uh uh joic is working against ad
he kind of gets ad a little bit onto his
left side so he can get to a little
right-handed hook ruy probably doesn’t
need the help here because this is
literally a 10-foot hook shot it’s one
of the lower percentage ones that yic
will take he obviously can make it but
I’d prefer ruy to to stay home here that
said if ruy is going to help Spencer
dinwoody can’t have his back turned
facing towards the worst shooter on the
floor that makes absolutely no sense
that is an example of not taking
advantage of smart help Den Woody should
be dropping here to help on Gordon
because pton Watson is not in position
around the rim but Gordon is
so um when joic is in his deep drop
coverage shot making is going to be key
this is an example of D’Angelo Russell
hitting a little fadeaway jumper over
Justin holiday in in the drop coverage
look at how farb yic is they’re going to
need Austin and DLo to hit these
shots here’s an example of a cross
screen set that I really really like
from Denver and the main thing that
makes this set work in my opinion is the
actual floor setup notice where
everybody is so we’ve
got ads gard and Gordon in the left
corner right from here we have uh Austin
Reeves guarding Reggie Jackson we have
Justin holiday spacing to the right
corner we have Christian Brown actually
setting the screen LeBron James is
actually guarding Christian Brown he’s
in help at The Rim here but watch as jic
comes off of this screen ad ends up
having to show
right so because ad has to show here
that lead Lees an easy Baseline cut from
Aaron Gordon now one of the things I’d
like to see the Lakers do to counter
this is have LeBron James be more active
in help he kind of took this possession
off that’s not going to be good enough
but I do love the configuration of this
set this actually a perfect little
Freeze Frame if Ru is gonna chase then
ad has to show which easily opens up the
cut along the Baseline side and that’s
definitely a lob not a
shot here’s an example of D’Angelo
Russell being in attentive off the ball
defensively so Justin holiday is just
going to come up like he’s uh coming off
of this wide uh um this wide pin down
but then he’s gonna slip watch boom just
easy little back cut on D’Angelo Russell
he’s not paying attention gives up a
dunk that’s just not going to cut it in
this match up Denver just makes you pay
every single time you make that kind of
mistake so uh one of the reasons why I
have some optimism for the Lakers in
this matchup centers around the fact
that the Lakers did a bunch of stupid
stuff over the course of the of this
regular season obviously in the uh
matchup earlier in the year I think it
was in it was either late January or
early February um D’Angelo Russell
didn’t play and the Lakers are just a
different offensive team when D’Angelo
Russell is not out there but this one D
was healthy and out there and the Lakers
starters actually won their minutes in
this game but down the stretch of the
game the uh darham went heavy into Cam
reddish and cam reddish is one of the
worst offensive players in the league
and a not very good perimeter Defender
but he for some reason has a reputation
with darham as being a good good
perimeter Defender your guess is as good
as mine but I got some footage in here
just kind of demonstrating that cam
reddish is not actually capable of
guarding Jamal
Murray so my hope is that we don’t see
cam in this
series just he’s not actually staying
glued he’s not bothering him he’s not
pressuring him he’s not making him feel
uncomfortable that’s like one of the
easiest shots you’ll ever see Jamal
Murray
take so um here these next two clips are
an example of a set that the Lakers can
run that I think has uh some success
against Denver these are double drag
sets so LeBron’s going to have the ball
this is the setup of a double drag so
we’ve got our Shooters in the corners
these are both dead eyee catch and shoot
guys that you can’t leave open right
LeBron James our primary ball handler
D’Angelo Russell is setting the first
screen Anthony Davis is setting the
second screen so uh what’s gonna happen
here is AG is gonna chase over the top
and yic is going to be in a high drop
right so Gordon’s chasing joic is on
high drop that means because Gordon’s on
the high drop uh or excuse me because
yic is in the high drop that means
Anthony Davis can slip behind the action
but because you’ve brought the size in
Gordon and yic out here it’s smaller
players on the backline Christian Brown
is going to stay home to be ready to
deal with D’Angelo Russell so D’Angelo
Russell is covered but ad is getting
tagged by Jamal Murray and AD just
easily catches and finishes at the
basket so the Lakers run it again on the
very next trip down the floor and this
time they switch the first screen so
here we go same exact action no
notice as it’s happening Aaron Gordon is
now going to allow Christian Brown to
take LeBron so Christian Brown is trying
to fight through that screen joic is in
the high drop here’s our high drop
configuration but instead Aaron Gordon
instead of prioritizing DLo he
prioritizes the role why is he
prioritizing the role because Anthony
Davis just got a bucket there LeBron
makes the kick out pass DLo misses the
shot but that’s a fantastic look so
double drag with DLo LeBron and AD is
going to be an action that I’d like to
see the Lakers run a lot in this
series here’s another example of
excellent individual defense by Aaron
Gordon on LeBron this is going to come
out of one of the Lakers favorite sets
which is a little uh dribble pitch with
LeBron on the right wing so what they’ll
do is they’ll have DLo set a little pin
down but this is a just basically a
dribble pitch to LeBron and again look
at Gordon jump out there he actually
gets out there enough because LeBron’s
been one of the best catch and shoot
players in the league this year as said
he’s up at up at like a point and a
quarter per shot so Gordon has to get
out there so look he’s caught on this
screen LeBron could catch and shoot but
watch this athletic move from Gordon to
close the gap boom that takes away the
jumper uh now LeBron is sees sees this
driving angle and his it is uh trying to
attack it watch Gordon somehow recover
and beat him to the spot now he’s beat
him to the spot and now he’s turned
LeBron into the tough fader away jump
shot now again LeBron can make that shot
and he has been making that shot a lot
this season but LeBron is one of the the
most efficient guys around the basket so
he’s turning LeBron from the more
efficient version of himself into the
less efficient version of
himself here’s an example of the high
Firepower in the Laker offense and this
is a bench group too with tyan Prince
and uh Spencer dwy out there so we’re
going to get multiple actions we get a
little brush screen for Spencer dwy
that’s going to flow into a double
screen for D’Angelo Russell Jamal Murray
does a good job in their High drop they
tag Anthony Davis Spencer Denwood he is
not a good enough three-point shooter
for him to be much of a threat
ball gets swung to toian prince toan
prince drives kicks to DLo DLo swings it
around to Spencer dwy now we’re running
another screening action we’re going to
get a low drop this time because
Spencer’s not as good of a shooter so
multiple screening actions a bunch of
ball and player movement and Denver has
defended it well but ball gets swung
with seven seconds left to ruy hamura
ruy hamura has a size advantage against
Payton Watson works his way into the
Lane hits a nice little fadeaway jump
shot over his right shoulder so again
this Laker offense is a lot more high
powered than it was last year just by
the way it’s configured every player on
the roster in the core group kind of
playing better than they did last year
it’s a big part of why I expect them to
hold up a little bit better offensively
in this
series here’s another example of Cam
reddish just not being able to make
Jamal Murray uncomfortable little hedge
in recover from
DLo so again he’s ball pressuring this
time at least a little bit but watch how
easily Jamal shakes him here
and again like I would understand like
it was Jared Vanderbilt like let’s say
Jared Vanderbilt returns in this series
and I reached out to my guy Yovan bhha
uh and asked him and he said he’s still
in his conditioning ramp up so like
there’s no timetable necessarily for him
to return he may not even show up in
this series Jared Vanderbilt’s the one
guy where I’m like oh he might not be as
good offensively but he’s actually going
to be able to make Jamal Murray feel a
little bit uncomfortable that is the
reason why I would lean that way if he
was healthy but I mean what’s crazy with
that though is even Jared Vanderbilt as
limited as he is is a much better
offensive player than cam reddish
because of his ability to operate within
the five out offense again I just I I
just like cam reddish good kid uh
getting a lot better over the years but
not really a rotation NBA player for a
good team should not see the floor in
this
series here’s an example of some dumb
help from Spencer
dwy so Spencer dwy here is guarding
Michael Porter Jr Michael Porter Jr is
going to come off of a screening action
on this side of the floor but this is
what’s bothering me about this specific
set so yic is setting a little back
screen for Justin holiday Aaron Gordon’s
running like a fake dho with Jamal
Murray so you’ve got Jamal Murray and
Justin holiday coming downhill but you
have LeBron James and Anthony Davis
there in help to contain that action
Spencer dwy for some reason stunts in
the lane to offer extra help as soon as
he does Michael Porter Jr flashes up
high and ends up getting a clean look at
three as a result or clean look at a
jump shot as a result that’s the type of
attentiveness off the ball and avoiding
the bad help that I’m talking
about here’s another example of the
LeBron Austin Reeves two-man game and
their ability to get downhill so again
this is uh this is coming against Justin
holiday who closed this particular game
instead of Christian Brown but I imagine
this is kavus cwell Pope um also this is
when the Lakers had Spencer dwy and cam
reddish on the floor two non-shooters
but just imagine this configuration in
the actual game this would be Jamal
Murray okay this would in all likelihood
be D’Angelo Russell this would in uh or
excuse me this would be d’angela Russell
and this would be ruy hatam Mur right so
like in this case Jamaal Murray is gonna
be on the ball which means that cavius
cell Pope’s goingon to be down here on D
so with this action they’re not going to
want to switch it so they are going to
chase which is going to open up the
pocket pass Gordon is going to have to
show otherwise Aaron Gordon’s going to
get downhill and that’s going to open up
little rolls to the rim for LeBron James
that’s an again I really want to see a
lot of LeBron Austin Twan game in this
series especially when they’re with
their starting
group another example of Cam R is just
not being able to guard Jamal Murray I
I’m sorry for picking on him I I just
I’m still irritated about that game in
case you guys can’t tell
here’s an example of Austin Reeves
hitting a little rescue possession shot
over um uh over Jamal Murray I think if
Austin can do a little bit of this in
this series to cancel out some of what
Jamal does that would go a long way so
again late clock 5 seconds left hits a
little turnaround jump shot over the top
of Jamaal
Murray that would be a big way for
Austin to kind of minimize some of
Jamal’s
impact here’s another example of what
would probably this I could go either
way on this one but I’m going to call it
bad help so ruy getting attacked by joic
Anthony Davis trying to to stunt Anthony
Davis clearly thinks that he’s going to
be able to get back in time to get to
Gordon but instead uh Austin Reeves
abandons Justin holiday to kind of box
Gordon out when he does there’s a wide
open three for Justin holiday watch
Anthony Davis’s reaction he’s like what
are you doing before it even goes in
he’s like what are you doing so like
Again part of that’s just the
predicament that Denver puts you in
you’re going to get in some trouble
there but those are the types of smart
help situations where it’s like Aaron G
or uh uh Justin holl is a really good
Corner three-point shooter probably
can’t leave him there probably have to
trust Anthony Davis to try to clean that
up here’s yet another Austin Reeves
LeBron James pick and roll again in a
configuration in closing time I think
you’d imagine this being uh uh um Jamal
Murray actually guarding on the ball one
of the things I want you to keep an eye
on on this possession watch Jamal
Murray hands on knees hands on knees
hands are still on knees hands are still
on knees and a little bit of a lunge
step hands up okay he’s completely and
totally in chill mode and like when I
tell you he was doing that the entire
day home stretch of the game that’s the
downside of going with the defensive
Personnel so when I talk about how it’s
important for Denver to play D’Angelo
Russell on the floor off the floor
that’s why because if they can play
D’Angelo Russ off the floor Jamal Murray
can chill if Jamal Murray can chill then
Jamal Murray will have the legs to make
the shots if you can wear him out a
little bit it’ll be harder for him to
make the shots and maybe he’ll miss a
you give yourself a better chance to win
the game but watch it one more time just
to see the configuration again once
LeBron sets the screen it’s going to be
that will be Jamal Murray chasing over
the top Gordon is going to be in a drop
which is going to open up LeBron James
rolls to the
rim here is another example this is
crunch time it’s a one-point game with
three minutes left I really wanted to
see the Lakers go to LeBron James
Anthony Davis on joic at this point but
nope they stick with their base coverage
you get what you deserve if you know
this is going to happen and you know he
can’t handle it like of course like what
what did you expect like he’s been doing
that all game so like I again eventually
in this series LeBron and AD are gonna
have to take more of the onus to guard
Nicole
yic here is the Jamal Murray shot over
Austin Reeves so we’re going to skip
down the floor again you can see yic
pointing he’s like y knows is like this
is going to Jamal he wants Jamal to take
it they’re clearing the side he weighs
everybody off he’s pointing telling
everyone to clear out here comes now
like I talked about earlier this is
where I want to see Anthony Davis early
in the series come down and offer double
teams and basically offer late Closeouts
on yic just until he demonstrates that
he can consistently knock down the three
said they come with Baseline help from
ruie this is honestly good defense from
everybody involved Austin uh uh Jamal
hit the same move on D’Angelo Russell
earlier in the game and give up a
layup here Austin does absorb the
contact and force him into a tough
drifting fade away and ruie comes over
and help now mind you Aaron Gordon’s in
really good offensive rebound position
there which is another reason why ad
needs to come down but this is honestly
well defended but that’s a shot that
that Jamal Murray will miss more
frequently if his legs are tired and you
can’t have his legs be tired if you have
him chilling guarding cam reddish on the
other end of the floor
uh once again Watch Tom M Murray in
chill mode guarding cam reddish he’s
chilling he’s chilling he’s chilling
we’re going to get a LeBron ad pick and
roll that uh Lebron rejects he drops it
off to ad Michael Porter Jr really nice
defensive play at The Rim there to block
Anthony Davis but just another example
of Jamal chilling on cam reddish and
then here just for one one more time to
add insult to injury watch how easily
Jamal just kind of works around Cam and
gets all the way down into the lane
so yeah those are the kinds of mistakes
uh schematically that the Lakers cannot
afford especially for Darin ham to make
but anyway you guys can see on film um
the main kind of things I’m talking
about it’s going to be very important to
keep the the Lakers best offens of
players on the floor for Denver that’s
going to be the battle that they need to
try to win is try to play one of the
skill players off the floor to give
themselves an opportunity to chill uh
for Jamal Murray to chill which will
help improve his chances for shot making
you saw the damage on the offensive
glass you saw of the transition stuff
you saw some of the matchups you saw the
job that Aaron Gordon can do uh again I
I’m picking Denver to win but I do think
like the Lakers have a chance and I am
expecting it to be a longer series I
think the biggest game of the series is
game one I think if the Lakers are going
to have any chance to win this series
they have to go in and win game one we
will be going Live on YouTube after the
final buzzer on Saturday of game one of
this series so make sure you guys head
over to YouTube to see it there hope you
guys enjoyed the breakdown the game plan
as of right now is tonight we’re going
live after 6 or so I will see you guys
on YouTube then
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