The Houston Open 2024 will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston, Texas. This golf course is difficult to pigeon hole with various types of games winning here since it took up hosting duties four years ago.
In this Houston Open Preview, we’ll break down the best picks for the tournament with insight and analysis from Andy and Geoff as we go in search of another profitable week on the PGA Tour.
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[Applause] welcome to another episode of the drive presented by odds Checker my name is Andy lack I am joined as always by Jeff fineberg Jeffrey another week another 300 to1 winner on the PGA tour and now we head to Texas uh where Texas’s own Scotty Sheffer back on over seated
Bermuda uh is two to one to win a professional golf tournament with 144 players in it in the year of 2024 what do we do I’m not sure what we do Andy but it’s a lot harder for me to see it clear another kick in the nuts
Was on cam young last week with you on Xander the week before I can tell you this unequivocally I am able to handle losing to the best player on earth going god mode a lot better than I’m able to handle losing to the guy with the bucket hat and the yellow Ball
But hopefully uh another yeah hopefully just keep swimming around these leaderboards I I’ll knock something down I hope one day well the chefer conversation uh has been a fascinating interesting fun discour today uh I’ve heard people argue for the without Sheffer markets uh this week I’ve heard
People argue for just take your medicine and bet parlay Sheffer with the next college basketball game you like um where do you stand on the Fear Factor here uh uh because you know I I have my opinion on this on on the best way to
Assess this Market but we are in a bit of Uncharted Territory it feels like in terms of just I I don’t know if Scotty Sheffer is the most dominant player since tiger I I’m certainly not ready to say that um but it seems like we’re in Uncharted Territory as betters in terms
Of how he’s treated on the odds board and the fear that he’s evoking in terms of other guys in our in our little golf betting Universe yeah so I would argue we’re not as in as unfamiliar a territory as um it feels like or like as
We want to make it feel like you know I feel like Rah went on dominant runs and was three to one to win in Mexico with only F out granted there’s like two or three players You could argue behind sheffler in this one we’ve seen DJ go on like you know blackout
Runs uh you know I’ve bet DJ 5 to one to win the Canadian open and he did that for for me once upon a time yeah but yeah but but you know looking at the odds Checker grid you know just refreshing it here Andy 3 to1 is the
High Watermark number it does feel like a cons oh no sorry the refresh is in we’re now down to 275 being the high Watermark you can make the joke this morning or even still when it was plus 300 that the plus 300s for this are probably more value than the plus 450s
To win austa I am not betting Scotty Sheffer I’m not part playing Scotty sheffler but like you it’s caused everybody to have a conversation with themselves and with me personally it’s okay I’m not betting sheffler but how afraid am I of him in the sense that like how much do I even
Want to commit to this event um because of that fear factor like do I trust anyone to beat him even with his seame and the other part of it would be every long shot you know whether I have access to it I do where I live but some people
Don’t aren’t able to play eways like maybe like I’m a never eway guy I’m a water will find its level for every placing bet I miss which has not gone well this year I’ll make it up when it when I you know by not giving away half
My bet to in each way historically that’s worked for me maybe I should have re-evaluated that this year but in this event like how do you bet anyone 80 to one and not take placings if you have access to it hypothetically yeah um it’s fascinating man I I I was
Thinking about those prior runs like I was thinking a lot about DJ and ROM and even you know Rory’s best golf in the last decade spe Beth golf in the last decade and I was trying to figure out like how common this actually is um in terms of the respect that he’s getting
On the odds board even when DJ went on his somewhat historic run um playing the best some of the best golf we’ve seen since tiger prior to winning that November Masters um he had won I want to say like four times in seven events four times in eight events heading into a
November Masters he was still 8 to1 to win The Masters that year Sheffer 4 to one to win The Masters right now um I don’t know how many times tigers’s been 4 to1 to win The Masters I would have to effort that that I don’t think it’s been
Many there have been at least one or two where he had to be like plus 200 I swear to God at least one like plus 250 I agree I I do agree I I shf War 4 to one to win The Masters is definitely we’ve seen tiger below that I I’m I’m not
Disputing you there I and I would need to effort how many times that’s happened um but it’s still fairly rarified air part of what’s knocking down the sheffler specifically to the Masters number Andy is who are the other players in the world playing great well zandrew Schley you know people don’t really
Trust him want to trust him Rory not doing struggles I think are being overblown but he’s not playing as well as people want ROM un say this right now unlik Brooks unlike Brooks I don’t know that ROM will just be able to flip the switch because like from going from
Exhibition to Majors but maybe he’ll show us you never go back to back at the Masters either I mean that and that’s the other thing he’s coming as a defending Champion so honestly I mean we’ve kind of done this before but outside of right of the truly high-end
Players you just trust Brooks on reputation other than that none of them seem to be ready hin looks as someone who has havin Futures and has been holding them probably for now close to N9 or 10 months like what the hell did I do and good numbers still like High m
Mid high 20s it’s it’s like I don’t feel good about those he looks horrible at austa spe any form heading into the Masters is 18 to one at Augusta um you can’t play that Speed game right now what the what the heck’s going on with Justin Thomas he’s usually 20 to1 at the
Masters if he’s playing well CLK Andi like the does anyone trust Patrick does anyone trust Patrick Klay right now it’s crazy I didn’t even mention him but he always plays well there but he’d be in the Xander he’d be even he’d be less respected than Xander cuz he’s not
Coming in finishing like top five every week like Xander you know already speaking about this today a bit those long range historical Masters trends that like I don’t necessarily believe in but they’ve Beed fruit like they really you can plot the course to it now Scotty changes that a bit because he’s so
Dominant so he’d be the easy pick anyway yeah but who even fits the who even checks the boxes it’s like hii Clark Scotty sheffler that those are the only guys that feel like will come up in those Trends other than guys like Jake knap who are firsttime winners and have
Some of the check marks in the last three months or something and Matthew pavon like I don’t know who else like checks the boxes for these dominant historical trends at the moment for the Masters yeah so just to put a bow on the sheffler conversation what’s a better
Betat this week uh like proverbial gun toer head you have to bet one of the two sh plus 250 or the field minus 200 I would bet I would bet the field minus I would to but Andy a lot more consens around plus 250 than you how many and I know
It’s hard to quantify because like how many guys is he behind who is the leader but like if chevler six back on Sunday and let’s say one or two of the players we respect are up there and then it’s a small handful of other names what are
His odds even like a touchdown behind on Sunday still be like 12 to1 15 to1 I like 20 to One Max yeah I mean coming back from larger deficits are a lot more common than than you would expect these but I mean like even at what point are
You counting him out if you did take the field it’s like he’s never going to be dead no he’s he’s Tri the first hole he’d be seven and a half to one yeah eight to one if he triple he’s got the he’s got the buggyman Michael Myers
Quity you got you gotta murder him for him he’s got the course record right and he’s we’re in Texas like on over we doing here what are we doing I mean no one watch you don’t need to watch Easter Easter Sunday Scotty goes to Easter Mass Scotty goes to Easter mass in the
Morning before his 2:30 p.m. tea time a very pregnant Meredith is is walking up walson onto the green and Scotty’s talking about this this this wasn’t me guys I did this one cuz with the help of the big man upstairs and he chist his res the Master’s odds you think can’t
Get lower but if he won this week even if we’re not respecting the field strength like it will get lower oh it can get lower yeah if if Sheffer wins Houston if Sheffer wins Houston um yeah plus 150 plus 200 at the Masters like Yukon right now people people will bet
It Jeff that’s the thing that we are overing this I know I know it’s sacrilegious in our community to bat any golfer at anything under like even seven to one in our golf betting Community but in terms of if you look at the highest handle on Sports books every week in
Golf it’s always the favorite okay to that point I don’t know anything about college basketball I didn’t bet a single College basketball game all year who did I bet at a short number to win the tournament before it started cuz the couple guys I know are like this team is
Incredible they’re the best I bet Yukon in the same way people who aren’t really golf fans they’ll want to bet the Masters in the same way I want to bet March Madness and they’re just GNA be like well who okay I’ll bet Scotty sheffler because he seems unbeatable and
He’s won there before like it’s e like right like that there’s another there’s another gets like it completely agree and there’s another piece to this too where I think it’s so exciting and easy to be hyperbolic about Scotty right now and a priser prisoner of the moment even
Though if you actually look at the numbers he is so far away from a legitimate tiger comparison but because golf has left such a poor taste in so many golf fans mouths this week the fact that we have anything to get excited about anything to Rally around now we
Are entering the masters with a legitimate story a legitimate like thing to track that could be the start of History the start of something special I think that is just going to pump up the the Scotty dialogue and discourse people love seeing a star be a star and his
Golf fans like dominance is what does rating yes for those of us me and you who had Xander for those of them for our friends who had Brian Haron or wam Clark like it it was like a tough blow but to the golf fan like watching him do
What he did at the Players Championship was marvelous so the hyperbole of course it’s there I I’m guilty of it I’m I’m guilty as anybody and as guilty as anybody um let’s talk about other golfers he’s not the only one playing this week I know it feels
Like it but I’ve bet a bunch of other losers yeah spin the wheel of losers I guess in a big in a big way um this week Andy other than Windam like Windam Clark’s the only guy in the teens zotor is still at 20 to one you take
This any any direction you want friend um I the lowest bet and I have room to make a selection at the top and that selection is likely going to be zalot torus or seah I think there’s Merit on both of those guys uh the betat
I made was SEIU Kim 35 to1 um I love the way that SEIU is playing I think that you need a very complete game around Memorial Park a golf course I know very well it’s a Tom do design I spent all weekend in Florida playing Tom do
Designs um sew is one of the most underrated uh short game guys in this field I think short game uh around the green creativity is a very very crucial aspect of Memorial Park so um I’m on cwoo 35 to1 and then I’ve got couple guys a little bit uh farther down
Uh I think I have 50 45 50 110 is what I’m working with this week see W I mean like you look at the stats it makes perfect sense let alone his like Strokes gain Texas abilities you’d worry that he might not be long enough uh off the tea
A bit and you know it’s it’s but I don’t know it’s weird to say in golf what you don’t do in other sports Andy is you bet numbers not teams but in golf sometimes you just have to bet golfers not numbers I wish he was longer don’t get
Me wrong yeah but like yeah I saw was 35 it’s still like it’s still you know I’m seeing the highest right now 35 you can get an enhanced on on um bet Philip Rivers over there yeah I have no hes to pick in it like you my two favorite guys
Closer to the top would probably be that will zelator 20 or sth um of these guys in the 20s I feel like I want to trust um the gala the most being at that I believe he’s the best putter of that group and uh let’s go a little farther
Back you mentioned 45 to1 I don’t know if you bet Alex norin or Keith Mitchell sure did sure did we’re going down with the [ __ ] my friend I I I I could argue this when has an Alex normed ended well for us when has an Alex Norm bet at this
Price ever worked I I don’t know that I can do it I’ve stand for norin for years so I’m a big fan and I was he’s the guy I was hoping to see like a 50 to one on this morning yeah I didn’t get there maybe I will there’s still 40s out there
On the grid um I can buy into that instead I picked my own loser Andy Stephen Jagger is a guy that I want I want to get behind bet him as well just just I like the yeah this weekend uh so he would be the
Guy that uh you know I made fun of all you guys betting Jagger in the swing season like you guys do that thing and then somehow the season started and I became a guy who bets Steven Jagger painfully so stevenh Jagger would be a guy that I’m looking at I still don’t
Know what to make of Jake KN but you could argue the 60 to On’s and the course could fit his profile quite well Andy and then sticking in a 100 in front 100 it’s a guy like Luke list we’re not in California which is probably the only
Place he he seems to really contend and win but um I he’s putting well there’s there’s not a lot of guys you you feel like could handle with their irons but I do trust Luke Luke list and if Cam Smith had any Cam Davis had a pulse he’d be a
Guy with the irons as well that I would want to trust but very few decisions have actually been made for me as we’re recording this yeah uh Jagger was one of the first bets I made on Monday morning I’m a I’m a massive Jagger fan on this
Golf course uh look at his best finishes this year they’ve all come on Long iron fasts like Tory Pines and Vidant viarta where carry distance is emphasized jer’s got a really underrated short game he’s a really good lag putter um and then the the last guy I would mention that I bet
At 110 to1 I believe that number has gone down is Joel Damon of Netflix Fame he’s just playing some great golf right now he’s got a fifth and a ninth at the Houston open uh it it feels like a Doug gimat like last week where is it going to pay off
Maybe not but it’s so obvious you kick yourself if the guy who just gained Adon approach coming to a golf course he’s dominated at I I think at at what do we make a gim this week though I I I’m not here to bet D bounceback Spot good
Bounce back spot I think yeah I mean he’d been flushing it so lovely yeah and that’s what he does and just yeah he didn’t make a birdie I think he made one birdie he didn’t I know he didn’t make a birdie on Sunday that’s bad one on Saturday uh he had a
Tough week he had a tough week he made the cut it was a it was a tough week in the end um but he was so chalky maybe this week like go from the chalk to sort of a forgotten guy maybe he can flush it Taylor Moore let’s have this debate
Quickly Andy because I already mentioned it this morning Taylor Moore 8 to one last week I didn’t mind it I didn’t end up betting it in the end would you argue Taylor deore 80 to1 this week is an okay Bet although La I’d argue the top of the
Field this week is much stronger than last week is that weird do I make any sense there no I I like Taylor Mo a lot he’s a Texas guy too uh he gained over five shks on a pro last week uh I’m circling the wagons on on Mo as well
Yeah 12th Place at valpar uh he’s playing a nice uh nice little set here crossing a 100 anyone that knows me I got off the wagon for a bit but maybe Signs of Life Thomas detri I could I don’t know this for a fact but I would
Almost just I’ll just say I’m certain he’s finished second place on a golf course like this like at least three times on the European tour so it suits him perfectly for a second place finish I I don’t mind you got to get a you
Gotta you got to be able to pull it off around the greens but they great driving good putting combo I think can get you pretty far this week Andy sure sure I um the last guy I’ll throw out there is Jose no Joseph bramlet close um bramlett’s like quietly playing
Some really good golf he just finished 17th at the F barar he’s got a ninth at the Houston open in the past hits the ball mile he’s actually got a really underrated short game he just gained five stres around the green at the F Spar so 150 what 15 50 to1 Joseph
Bramlet big fan of him this week I will give you credit because youve sort of bet into like my favorite Zone to bet in each week is like the area you picked it just usually the players are better um you have bet the two guys who I think
The sports books woke up this morning or last night said we do not want to post anything on SEI wo and norin and they did not they did not so credit to you for having the discipline to still be willing to fire I at this moment I don’t I don’t but uh
If Alex noren wins I’ll just have to be happy for him because I’m a big fan I’m a big fan um all right Jeffrey well hopefully we can have some better luck this week hopefully hopefully Scotty cheffer I think my betting card is gonna be pretty
Small I think I’m just doing Willie uh to Gala and and Jagger potentially I don’t know bing bang yeah I I think that’s a good I think think that’s a good construction this week my friend I don’t trust anyone to beat Scotty but after conversations with you I feel
Better about the fact that he’s not gonna beat everybody I mean it just I know you wantan to guess do you want to guess how many times um somebody’s won three times in a row in the last decade on the PJ tour none three three times in a row It
Happened One time was it brenon Todd or that was just twice Dustin Johnson in 2017 one three times in a row one time in the last decade of pgr golf like it’s just more likely that he doesn’t win I mean he’s he’s he’ll probably be there like he’s probably finishing I think
It’s more likely that he finishes but I think it’s more likely that he finishes like third than he finishes first personally um I don’t think like he’s not missing the cut but you know it’s hard to win I he he’s the most likely player in this field to win but I don’t
Think he is as likely as people seem to think he is that that’s what I would say personally so I’ll take him on I guess you know going to be real fun when me and you have uh have Stephen joerger battling SC Chef or you know I swear I
Sent a friend of of mine I’m sure we’ll really enjoy that and Andy credit to you because I sent a text to a friend of mine who does the golf betting as well today and was like man it’s going to take a lot of courage to sit in front of
A camera and say I’m betting Alex sorn and Stephen jger when Scot’s in the field yeah yeah it’s gonna take a lot of HS like it’s gonna take a lot of gumption to do it ho Spa so I give you full marks um okay we’re almost there though we teased a lot of
Master’s talk we’ll probably do more master’s talk next week as we’re still in Texas but even closer friend adios buddy that will do it for another episode of the drive presented by odge Checker my name is Andy laack that is Jeffrey f and we will see you next week at the flero Texas [Applause] open
1 Comment
Sam Bennett is a Texas guy, and is in on a sponsors exemption. Give me that 250/1 with 8 places