The NCAA tournament is here! Can you harness the madness and win a few bets? Joe Giglio and Josh Goodson try. Plus, FRL, top 20s and winner picks for the Valspar Championship.
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TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 – Intro
01:00 – NC State wins ACC title
03:20 – First-round upsets. Clemson. James Madison
10:10 – Final Four futures. Texas A&M. Tennessee
14:00 – National champion picks. UNC. Tenn. Auburn
16:30 – #housekeeping
18:50 – Valspar FRLs
22:30 – Top 20s
25:00 – One and Done. Brian Harman
26:00 – Winner. Keegan Bradley
Welcome back to the OG gambling Syndicate I’m Jo jilo joined by Josh Goodson RTP mortgage Josh uh first of all I know you’re ecstatic that NC State won the ACC Championship so congrats to you man I know uh I know as a as a Carolina grad it’s a
Little bit different but you enjoy such things yeah it was a definitely a fun week last week um if I have any on it it’s outside the Virginia just outcome I didn’t think the rest of the week was fluky and sometime it’s it’s nice to you take wins however like if it had
Taken five buzzer beaters I wouldn’t have cared yeah but there’s something to be kind of said about like you know I just thought they started playing well college kids and momentum is actually and confidence is actually a real thing and it was just nice that they they
Finally played well got it together and then got over it it always had to be against UNC too so I was happy it was a little bit sweeter that it had to be over the stretch of teams that they beat so good week happy for Kevin Keats happy
For me defending Kev you have been one of his biggest Defenders on the social medias as I saw the picture that you had posted too so all good stuff man all good stuff so let’s actually start with the NCAA tournament and I think most normal people under uh you know illegal
Gambling still entered into a a a pool a bracket pool I think that’s fair to say it had a large reason to do with the popularity of this tournament so now that gambling is legal in North Carolina and just to remind you if you use DraftKings use that promo code og2 24 if
You’re a firsttime user you can get get uh up to $250 in bonus bets so use that og2 24 promo code and use DraftKings they are our official partner here and those are the odds that we use here on the OG gambling Syndicate but if you’ve learned anything
From us from watching about our golf picks is there’s more than just one way to bet on a sporting event so um let’s go through a couple of things here with the tournament Josh I know everyone’s going to have a bracket I have my own uh type of pool
You could even pick just straight games uh Thursday you can go live line however you want to do it totals I don’t like totals personally um but here’s what I want to do for our purposes today I want to pick a first round upset and that is
A team to outright win as an upset as an underdog I want to pick a final four future meaning money you could put down right now and so when a team wins their region and makes the final four that’s the payout that you would get and then the national championship which you know
Let’s be honest usually is going to be a little a little bit more of a safer pick so let’s start with uh your first your first round upset yeah didn’t get too crazy too off the board and mainly because when you start looking at these games out I think
When you get past the 116 215 three and then the 413 so take the first four lines off right those games and you get the five you know so on and so on the rest of them all these games are like all these teams are the same
Which is kind of what you’ve been saying all year on on on the regular OG podast and such and the point spreads like do not be surprised people like when you’re picking these games and you’re trying to go and you’re and you pull up the app because now you can finally legally bet
Do not be surprised when you pull it up and you’re like wait uh Washington state is a onepoint underdog to Drake but Washington state is the seven seed right that doesn’t make any sense so just just kind of keep that in mind whenever you because a lot of people are going to be
Dabbling more on these and and such I didn’t stray to too crazy um if you ask me for like what is my biggest upset prediction it would be South State I them um to if if I had to put a flyer use one of the bonus bets that I got
From the og2 24 promo code I might would play 25 a $25 bet on them to win at plus 10,000 I believe they’re 15 seed playing Iowa State um I feel like there’s some sometimes there’s a difference in NC State just did what what they did right
They won five games they won their way in had to win way all the emo that but now they’re showing up to the tournament and guess what they’re actually underdogs in their game Iowa State’s a little different they’ve been playing well all year they just beat Houston by
30 points in the Big 12 Championship won the championship game I could see that being a just as much of a let down spot for that team as NC State being in theirs right so I like that’s kind of the premise on the South Dakota my biggest like upset at the
First round I like Clemson Clemson I believe is a two and a half Point Underdog they actually open up with one Mountain West teams which I guess the Mountain West versus the ACC now is the the biggest rivalry in the history of uh Sports based off of all the discussions
And such from last night uh in regards to the to the Virginia final but uh Clemson is actually an underdog as a six seed to the 11 seed New Mexico lobbo uh Rick patino’s son is the coach to that team and so plus two and a half and
I think the money Line’s plus 120 again it’s not it would not be the biggest upset in the history of NVA tournament but I just like Clemson after what they did in DC there’s no way I think they cannot come out breathing fire in this opening round matchup um against New Mexico um
So give me give me Clemson I like the pick for that last reason that you mentioned also something important for those who are new to gambling or even just new to the G to the apps you mentioned a bonus bet and I’ve had a lot
Of people ask me what’s the deal with a bonus bet and what’s the difference between a bonus bet and say your your account the money that’s in your account with a bonus bet you only get back the money that you win so if you if you risk
$25 and it’s let’s just say it’s plus 100 odds you would get $25 back into your account normally if you took $25 out of your account that’s the amount you risk when you get your when you get your payout you get both the money that you
Win and the amount that you risk so that’s the difference between a bonus bet and just a straight bet that comes out of your account and if you think about it what DraftKings doesn’t want you to do is just to give you $300 and then have you make one bet and
Then cash it out so it’s a little bit of protection um from their end but it is still legitimately money that you are allowed to gamble and if you win that those bets you can then cash out those bets so I just wanted to explain that
Real quickly to people who are new to and and quite frankly it was new to me Josh because when I signed up in New Jersey this summer and Virginia this summer there wasn’t all of these offers so I didn’t I I missed out on a lot of
The free money um so I’m kicking myself just a little bit but not really because you know me I enjoyed my uh runs to Virginia and whatnot so my first round upset is not that big much more on the spread side but I think it is going to
Be one that people kind of go um James Madison’s getting five and a half against Wisconsin and I I can give you all kinds of reasons um basketball-wise Wisconsin’s typically a team that flops in the first round there they’re not an overly athletic team they’re also a team
That plays a very specific way kind of like Virginia so when they play teams outside their conference other teams are just kind of like cool you want to kill the clock and flop and and play shitty basketball and notore yeah watch me hit a couple threes and and just beat you
Okay that’s typically why they lose the way that they do in the NCAA tournament I’m not even going to go on that logic you’re GNA love this because you love it when I get stupid okay who was the team of the tournament last year the bell of
The ball last year if you can remember was it San Diego well San Diego State I know made a run I don’t know I don’t know I do not remember I was good say San Diego State but it sounds like the way you the way you set it up it was
Going to be it’s going to be someone different yeah so the bell of the ball last year was Florida Atlantic okay yeah get to the final four and it was oh here’s spunky little Florida Atlantic if you remember last year no one was talking about Florida Atlantic before the tournament because they were
Dismissed as oh they’re just some small you know mid- major who dominated their conference they’re not that good and now this year one of my picks will be MCN and a lot of people are equating MCN state to to be this year’s Florida Atlantic the truth of the matter is
Florida Atlantic had a 31 and3 record last year when the tournament started would you like to guess James Madison’s record going into this tournament yes uh is it what is 31 and three correct for $400 and two of those losses were to App State unbelievable and pardon me I’m fighting
Some allergies here on the second I got back into the state of North Carolina my I I’ve just gotten a little bit crazy here on my throat here the PO was the PO was dominating you no uh continue like I actually I love it because what what did
We end up seeing out of Florida Atlantic they’re like super athletic yeah they got dudes and like we we kind of have me and you kind of like live by the premise of if you do let’s ride with the dudes and like that usually lot of games especially in basketball because you
Don’t need a team of 22 guys likeing football guys out who you can make it work with two two really good guards usually uh so give me Jammu as my first round upset who do you like as a final four future uh so future bets if you’re not familiar
They’re kind of like the ones we making golf top 20s or winners where we’re picking a guy you’re risking you know either $50 or $100 and then your return on that so using my example Texas saying m is 40 to1 so if you bet $100 on Texas A&M to
Make the final four you would win $4,000 that’s a pretty good return Josh now Texas A&M is in the South they’re in the 89 line they have to beat Houston Houston’s very athletic Houston’s very tough Houston’s very defensive that sounds a lot like Texas A&M uh I think there’s only a few teams
That can play the way that Houston want to play I think Texas A&M is one of them I also think that Brack it kind of opens up uh after that that little pod there so I’m going to take Texas A&M and Buzz Williams at that juicy 40 to1
Number I hope the wolf pack just ruin your day A&M A&M wolf pack in the Elite 8 Joe’s got a Jo $4,000 ticket and just rip your heart out again I’ll be okay with that because I’m only risking a 100 that’s kind of the beauty of a future
I um I went a little bit down the I’m the I’ll be honest with you the things I don’t necessarily love to play them because I think there’s a lot more value if you were to take a specific team roll over their mind each game and
Just have like a big paray I think you get a lot better numberball and inside gambling that well we’ll have to get on we need to do a show one day of just like what are all the other exotic crazy things you can actually do to like kind of you know do
Your odds a little bit better but I went with Tennessee um plus 350 to make the final four I just looked at their the other top end teams in their region and pardon me while I pull it up but I know that their number one was Purdue and
What do we Purdue we obviously think is the most fraudulent like onec that there ever was I mean sorry I can’t unsee you losing to a 16 seed once you’ve done that like you gotta earn it back you gotta you kind of have to do the Virginia and go go win it
All to which then that’s another story to talk about Virginia they don’t play the same type style or anything like that but they were my um sorry I’m pulling it up right now I like Tennessee in region to get out of there um plus Purdue is in there I don’t Char kraton
Kraton is the three seed I don’t trust Gonzaga this year they’re the five seed do not trust Kansas they are injury riddled they’re the they’re the four seed you keep going down the board Texas TCU and South Carolina none of those teams scare me a different the ball they’ve got a
Dude to con Dalton connect he can literally win you a tournament just by going for 30 every night so give me Tennessee plus 350 to make the final four it’s a quote our friend chip Patterson I took a MCN sprinkle here uh to win the Midwest for all of the
Reasons that you just mentioned plus it’s 75 to1 um again winning the national championship is different than getting to the final four that’s why you see a little bit more of those Cinderella type stories to get to the final four it’s difficult to to close
The book though uh when you get to that level and speaking of which we are at that level uh who do you have winning this thing the national champion I’m gonna well it’s kind of hard to like do the pick like a little small small loss
To make the final four and then not kind of stick with that team when you’re looking at the odds I’m gonna stick with Tennessee I’m G to stick with Tennessee to win it all believe that their number came in at plus 1600 they are according to DraftKings they are the number they
Have the F the fifth best or excuse me the sixth best best odds to win uh behind Yukon Houston Purdue Arizona and UNCC actually Carolina has slightly better odds than they do I just like Tennessee for all the reasons I said I feel like and I feel like once you get
There like everybody yes anything can happen I think they actually have a really good shot to get there having A600 ticket once they’re there is not a bad thing I you you would put them up against anybody in the country you know head-to head or anything like that so give me
Give me the Tennessee Volunteers I already have a Carolina ticket so I’m going to be different here I’m gonna take an Auburn ticket at 17 to1 um Auburn is with Yukon I don’t know what happened Josh but yukon’s draw is significantly tougher than any other region I don’t understand it as the
Number one overall seed but they somehow Drew Auburn the SEC Champion Illinois the Big 10 champion and Iowa State the Big 12 Champion that just doesn’t make any sense to me um I if you put a gun to my head and said pick one team who you
Really believe is going to win this tournament I would say Yukon but I don’t like that draw I’m going to tell you something else I don’t like and this might be you might think I’m I’m batshit crazy for saying this I had Yukon in the Big East tournament to cover a
Nine-point spread against St John’s and they didn’t and the reason they didn’t is because they gave up 90 points right I I’m I mean that’s not uh Chris Mullen firing threes for St John’s okay that’s a yeah that’s a team that really is a limited team that Rick
Patino has kind of coached up so it’s not that they didn’t cover although I do believe in that because Vegas’s standard is usually higher than our standards so for the fact that they gave up 90 points gives me pause I think Auburn is good enough to beat them and then I think
Auburn would ride that through the the confidence of knowing you’re the ones who knocked out Yukon so Auburn is my pick to win the national championship that number is is 17 To1 all right before we get into our golf picks for the V bar Josh Goodson rtb morgage RTP mortgage.com you can give them a call it’s 252-3611 1415 what’s going on Josh with both not only the uh mortgage rates but the housing market uh it’s cooled off a little bit from like the
Beginning of the year rates had kind of dipped a little bit between December January and I think just the a lot of people had the New Year’s resolution thought like of everybody right some people go to the gym some people wake up January 1 be like I’m not renting
Anymore and I’m gonna buy a house this year and a little bit of that has rubbed off a little bit but it’s still solid Market I’m still writing pre-approval letters people are still shopping around again it’s sounds like a broken record but when the rates do start
Coming back down the prices are only going to get higher and the competition’s going to get higher so buying now is going to be a better solution than waiting for some you know half a percent or quarter percent in rate or whatever you think that it is because you’ll never you’ll never make
Up the difference in rate versus like how much you had to overspend or overpay to get the house that you want you know when the competition heats up so so what’s the best thing to do for let’s say a firsttime buyer like they they need to figure out what they can afford
First right just shoot me a call 252 it’s on the screen 252 3611 1415 or text we can set up a time to chat it’s usually about 30 45 minutes just go over the process here’s what you need here’s your down payment here’s what your closing costs look like here’s what
Rates would look like here’s what so on and so on with it like or some a lot of the conversations end up just being okay maybe you’re not quite ready now here’s what you need to do to be ready for in the future so I love helping first-time
Home buyers it’s it’s a fun time um get to get to talk about the uh nerd out a little bit and such about the uh the market and such so that’s where we are all right let’s get to our uh valpar picks and if you’re new here to the OG
Gambling Syndicate we like to take first round leader bets we take these at $25 increments and you’ll see that the payouts are extraordinary this is not a great field uh down in Tampa Josh we have the Masters coming up they just had the players so this is a week off for a
Lot of the top players on the PG tour that does add some value to the bottom of the board with your first round leader picks going to pull them up here uh as usual you have some some unique names you have some familiar names as well but what what are your
Overall thoughts about valpar and and the track and usually it’s a little bit it’s a tough another one of those tough Florida tracks in my op I believe it’s par 70 or 71 I believe they play on the copperhead course down there but it’s a
Unique par 71 it’s it’s still a four par five four par fives on this on the par 71 I believe five that would give us what five par threes if we’re going to be still a par 71 so that’s one piece of it I’ve went back and kind of looked and
Did a little bit of Recon and and also we we’re we’re we are sniffing last week we had Nick Taylor he was one shot out of the first round lead again I mean we are just I think that’s now three weeks in a row where we’ve had a guy finish
Second or tied for second for the first round lead and being a shot out so we are sniffing around we are not uh we are not deviating from the plan and from the process and that’s how I came to a bunch of the picks this week bunch of the guys
Are the same ones that we always see birdie guys get hot guys and then some guys do have some good course history here um so that’s just kind of where I went where I went also just like decent value I’ll kind of start at the top end feel like
Sunjay Gonna Roll with him again but also cam young Cam young is a guy who can get high has got hot has not won yet I like the fact that he’s 40 to one for the first round lead 25 bucks he hits that’s $1,000 I don’t mean he’s probably one of
The better golfers in the field this week as you can kind of tell by the odds but those two guys I like Keegan Bradley’s been sniffing around to 50 to one same with Keith Mitchell 55 to one and then some of a little bit of um some
Of the first round leader I’m going to kind of jump around but Four Guys kind of towards the bottom of the list we got a David lipsky we have a Johnny Vegas we have a Richie warsky and a Scott Stallings two years ago at the vbar lipsky and Johnny Vegas tied for
The first round lead second place that day or I guess tied for third that day Richie warsky and Scott Stallings so those are four guys who you kind of can kind of see at the bottom anywhere from 110 to1 to 130 to1 those are four guys that have
History there obviously like the track have seen low numbers there have shot in the mid 60s there that’s all you need for one round so that’s why we went with those guys kind of at towards the end and then in the middle Joel Damon’s coming off a really good week at the
Players he had not been playing well up to this year but he played pretty well at Sawgrass um I liked his number at 80 to one same with Brendan Todd Brendan Todd’s the local guy of the week that we always have to pick he’s 80 to one and
Him and chessen Hadley have kind of been alternating of who’s going to show up each week and of the old guy North Carolina guy variety so kind of sprinkled the board I L I love some of the the highend over 100 to one odds down at the bottom so hopefully we’ll
Catch one this week all right you have a top 20 pick for us from the Val I went with two guys uh Doug gim gonna stick with him he’s plus 160 five this week and Keith Mitchell plus 210 I just like the I like the value on both of those
Guys I feel like without a bunch of the high-end guys aren’t playing this week I mean these these guys are anywhere from probably top 30 to top 60 in the world so now if you cut out 15 guys that are normally in the top 20 not playing I
Feel like their odds are a lot better to sneak into that top 20 it’s funny had someone stopped me at PNC two weeks ago hey love the OG gambling stuff that you do uh please keep up the top 20 picks in part because for the most part that’s been where
We’ve had our most success has been the top 20 picks um you know last week it was the players I didn’t want to pick Scotty Sher I ended up picking Scotty Sheffer I ended up picking him in one and done because you had said it was the
Biggest purse yeah and that turned out well for me I’m now I shot up my board uh in the in the one and done pool that I’m in and now of course I can’t use Scotty Sheffer again but I hit it’s more important in those oneand done pools to
Hit when you take those players like the previous week I had Matt Fitzpatrick and he inexplicably missed the [ __ ] cut I mean did you see the story on Matt Fitzpatrick I missed it oh my God I’m gonna send this to you uh this was last week evidently back in the fall or the
Fall or beginning part of the winter he was tinkering around with some clubs and they had added a weight some a small bit of weight God are you serious okay so that was known that that it had happened he forgot it was on there hence why he
Was playing so bad guess what happened last week he took the weight off what and what did he do he top five I think just God you gotta be kidding me I’m gonna send you I will send you the article or or the tweet that I saw about
That but like just Insanity like basically he found out before the players like oh this is why it hasn’t been feeling well or hasn’t been feeling right because this weight was still on there well instead of top 20s I’ll give you my uh one and done pick it’s the
Little B Brian Harmon tough track not a great field uh he finished TI for second last week at the Players again and he was top 12 at uh Arnold Palmer as you see here top five at back at the century I just feel like the tougher the track
The better that he plays uh and again when you’re thinking about it when are you going to use Brian Harmon uh particularly when in Majors now you have so many live options which has basically been my strategy for will be my strategy for the majors I’ll use Brooks I’ll use
Bryson D Shambo I’ll use Wy Neiman um and then obviously Rah will will factor in there at some point there’s just too many options in those bigger tournaments that I feel like it’s okay to use a Brian Harmon even though he was the open champion last year I feel safe using him
As a oneandone pick this week and you could see his recent results there um give me a winner though Josh I’m pull up the odds here on DraftKings for the Valar Championship so close last week so close wind you had a 50 to one ticket on Windham Clark which really would have
Paid for the rest of our season I’m not even going to lie to you um I was actually rooting for you you know I don’t often root for you and we’ve decided maybe I shouldn’t root for you it’s bad luck when I root for you best
Player in the world shoots 4 on I mean yeah just best player in the world who’s fighting a back injury by the way Xander shafley played well last week he absolutely listened to this podcast and put it in our ear but there is not a place on the planet where Xander shafley
Should be a plus 650 at pre flop tournament bet that that’s that’s that’s preposterous s Sam Burns has won this tournament twice so it’s there a horses for courses type scenario I went a little bit further down to Keegan Bradley 40 to1 that’s a good number one
For Keegan Bradley uh no super crazy reason except I feel like this is a Keegan course and I feel like this is a Keegan not maybe like a Keegan course a Keegan scenario to kind of he’s sniffs around and I just like the value 40 to1
Like way better than some other guys I looked at minwu Lee I didn’t hate his odd I I even looked at cam young like is this the cam young week at 25 to1 is what well but uh Keegan Bradley was the one that I would go with like for the winner
Slash oneand done type scenario because I’m when am I going to use Keegan again except maybe in Connecticut at The Travelers or yeah I mean he he miscut last week uh miscut at the Genesis too but you know he he has played well this
Year this is a par 71 to your point uh one of the other 71s he’s played at this two of the other 701s he played it this year Sony tied for second and Pebble Beach uh tied for 11th so I like that as well all right Josh I appreciate you
Taking some time this week if you haven’t already hit that button right there subscribe like follow us on the Apple or the spotifi and of course if you are in the market for buying a car or even selling your car Josh heaster Automotive Group it’s heaster auto.com Bennett Johnson will be
Back uh for the Masters let’s give let’s give Bennett a little bit of a break and get him back here for the Masters Josh enjoy the Madness and if you can come see us down at the long leaf swine Thursday 1:00 we’ll have an NC we’ll
Have the OG live we’ll have uh tickets to give away to the Carolina Hurricanes thanks to our friends at Breeze through and we’ll have uh bourbon for some of our select listeners Blanton’s gold they have it there at the long leaf swine starting at one right there on the
Corner of Edenton and person so check us out appreciate you guys and best of luck this week at both the vpar and the NCAA tournament n
1 Comment
NC State +25000 to win it all. Had to.