The PLAYERS Championship BEST BETS & PICKS! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The Players Championship!

0:00 Intro
1:30 Storylines for the PLAYERS Championship
9:00 DFS Picks
14:45 First Round Leader
21:05 Tournament Matchups
28:45 Finishing Positions
34:50 Winners
42:45 Long-Shot Picks

ABOUT THE SHOW: Welcome to The Early Wedge! Your #1 destination for all of the bets bets and picks each week for the PGA Tour! Join Eric Cohen with CBS Sports Golf Writer Patrick McDonald and SportsLine expert and Early Edge host Sia Nejad to break down each tournament of the PGA Tour season through the Tour Championship , every Tuesday at 7pm EST!

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A welcome to the early wedge presented by B MGM I am your host Eric Cohen otherwise known as EC before we get into the show please like this video and make sure to subscribe to the Sportsline YouTube page there are baseball previews going on you can see the counselor every

Morning on early Edge we’ve got uh March Madness Goods coming up next week so plenty of great stuff make sure to like this video subscribe to that YouTube page but let us get right to it and talk about how much money theia and I lost last week to one Patrick McDonald once

Again as always the stars of the show the host of the early Edge the counselor C aad and the Great Golf writer I gotta give you an extra adjective this week from CBS sports.com Patrick McDonald all right you won 300 bucks last week what do you have to say for

Yourself uh I mean not much more I appreciate it fellas it was a close one down the stretch uh some would say I probably shouldn’t have won it uh Victor was leading probably 94% of that tournament but not at the buzzer so uh bad week overall though so hopefully we

Get it back this week see are you gunshy31 T20 and so I was kind of like you know I was I was feeling down because zotus it was It was obviously slipping completely slipped out of his hands and so I had completely forgotten and so I’m glad you reminded me 5

Seconds later I venm Patrick a 100 bucks and I know you had to do that too was it two times over well so I put together that list and the rest of the list is an amazing list by the way and we’ll talk about that later in the show but I did

Put Scotty Sheffer under 10 to one on that no bet list Patrick can can you explain to me why that was such a dreadful mistake uh because he’s the best player in the world by a substantial margin yes so for your first storyline you don’t think that the

Scotty run is going to be contained at just one week I do not I’m actually as a golf fan perhaps not as a golf better I’m hoping Scotty sheffler just burns it all down and keeps on winning I’m talking at least five tournaments this year and to provide a little context for

How good Scotty Sheffer has been let’s just go back since the beginning of the year someone like Justin Thomas four top 12s in five starts Scotty sheffler is a stroke better per round than Justin Thomas okay that’s a short sample size let’s go back to the start of

20123 John ROM he’s number two on that list he was great right four wins a masters a runner up at the open as well runner up at the Mexico open Scotty sheffler is two and a half Strokes better than John ROM per tournament since then I don’t think people

Understand just how good this guy is the gap between him and the next best best player in the world is wide and we aren’t asking in this discourse of official world golf rankings who the best player in the world we are asking who is the second best player in the

World interesting okay that’s fair enough now seea when it comes to ranking the tiers of golfers your storyline revolves around that this week yeah I mean it’s such a good segue from what Patrick just said and this honestly wasn’t planned but I’m wondering if is a

Next tier like is there a second tier or is it Scotty sheffler and then like the third tier of golfers and I know some people might take umbrage with that because you know Victor havland and you know Patrick Klay Xander schofl I mean you go down the list maybe maybe some

Colin morawa action Roy mroy of course but I think the Gap is so wide right now especially with Rory maroy being underwhelming Victor hoplin starting the season now it’s a small sample size but starting the season kind of in an underwhelming way I don’t at this point

I don’t even know whether to expect those guys adjacent to Scotty sheffler because it might be the Jake knps of the world or the Shane Lowry’s maybe one tier down from those guys right so I I just wonder if the Gap has widened so much that we don’t have that typical

Okay there’s one or two guys at the top and then there’s the next tier and then there’s the next tier and that’s why when we talk about the outrights for this tournament for The Players Championship you know I I kind of just glossed right over the next tier down

From Scotty and it wasn’t a purposeful thing it was where’s the value where are the guys that I think can win and I had to go down the board a little bit for my first selection after you know basically dismissing the plus 550 on Scotty sheffler so we’ll see how this all works

Out but yeah Scotty just seems like he’s Leaps and Bounds ahead of everybody else all right now wait a second we still have Rory meloy here so he’s the closest in odds I mean you’ve got like sheffer’s like plus 500 at most books mooy is around plus 1100 Patrick what do you

Think about that is there a second tier or is se you right in that there’s Scotty and maybe Rory at the top and then we’re going way back is that is that too much to say I I think Rory is very overpriced at 12 to1 I think he

Should be closer honestly to like the xanders and the canl like in that 20 to 25 to one range given he’s playing hey can I just say and and so it’s funny you mentioned that because in my sports line article La last week you know I I usually open the article on a

Monday I talk about maybe one or two guys I like and a guy that I’m going to fade and and and I do that and then I update the article with my picks usually from this show and and I’ve said for two weeks in a row that until I see Roy m

Roy with like a plus4 in front of him I have no interest in taking him so he will be a fade for me mostly in DFS but of course there’s ownership considerations there but if he’s plus 1,000 or less I I just have no interest there I don’t think there’s any value

There even if he was playing a little bit better I’m still not sure in a loaded field there’s value in that number right now well you know we saw what he did on Saturday in the back n he had six birdies I mean he was draining

Everything a lot of people do that you see a lot like you can go down the board to an 80 to1 shot who who strung together six out of seven birdies like that happens all the time but but now we we want to make up for Rory so when he

Does it when there’s a snapshot from Rory we’re like oh see that’s the old Rory he’s he’s he’s going to be back just in no time but me we’ve seen forget about Roy Mell we’ seen Roy sabatini do that I mean there’s plenty of guys that

Have a hot round or a hot 12 or 13 holes it’s not exclusive to Roy just because he’s an alleged Superstar all right that’s fair enough I I’ll I’ll accept that I will not be picking him uh anytime soon at the top of the board and

He was also my fade uh in my Sportsline column the fantasy column listen the three of us have what combined like four or five columns on Sportsline this week if you are not a Sportsline member and you want a great price before March Madness read all of our golf columns and

Such DM me on Twitter and I will take care of you all right my storyline this week guys tell me if I’m off base with this one or if this is a real thing that 14 of the last 16 players championship winners have had an early tea time on

Thursday and late on Friday Scotty Sheffer goes off late on Thursday early on Friday Patrick I’ll start with you meaningless Trend or meaningful Trend meaningless I see I see nothing into this just uh you you flip a coin sometimes it’s heads seven times in a row sometimes it’s Tails seven times in

A row uh but over a larger sample size it all evens out see when I would do the football shows with proppy uh he would yell at me if I would say well Derrick Henry has rushed for over 150 yards against the Texans seven straight games

And he says well it doesn’t matter what he did three years ago it’s a matter of what he’s doing now how do you feel about this TR 14 out of 16 is strong so isn’t that sometimes a product of like tea times sort of being set for

Some of the stronger competition to be out there Friday afternoon versus like let’s say Friday morning like I feel like sometimes and Patrick in EC you can correct me if I’m wrong here maybe I’m off base here but typically don’t we have like a lot of the good guys out on

Like Friday afternoon Thursday morning because of TV coverage and things of that nature maybe that plays into it a little bit that is correct that that’s kind of the uh the friend at the American Express it’s like uh they started on I forget which course but

Like the last like six out of seven winners start on like kinta I’m not sure if that’s the correct one and it’s so that they can get them uh on the PGA West on Saturday when people are watching interesting I yeah I didn’t even think about that but that’s a good

Trend all right so we’re throwing that out and that’s a good thing because a lot of my picks start late on Thursday so okay we don’t have to worry about this now it’s time for the DFS portion of the show and we just talked about uh

Rory mroy being a fate see I’m gonna start with you uh you know Patrick and you I think we’re all in agreement uh yeah we’re not I mean not big Rory guys right now you’re fading him at a big price this week yeah I mean the thing is

When it comes to Roy mroy I do think there’s some Merit in playing him this week just because his ownership is going to be predictably low and when we look at Scotty sheffler who’s probably going to be 30% or so especially since you have such soft pricing down below like

You can you can fit Scotty Sheffer in your lineup all day if you want to so I think Roy maroy makes a little bit of sense from a game theory standpoint but honestly I I’d rather fade him anyway because I think there’s other guys that share similar ownership to Rory maoy and

What I mean by that is low ownership that I would I can pay less for vikor havland is one of them Colin moraca is one of them Patrick Klay is one of them now listen there’s problems with all of their like those three guys there’s probably more problems with their game

Right now than Roy mroy but can get Windam like Windham CLK there’s some guys I can get for two 2500 less than Roy mroy at similar ownership so from a game theory standpoint I can go lower and then from a price standpoint I may as well go 600 higher to Scotty sheffler

So I just have no interest in Roy mroy but again if his ownership stays at around 10% I have no problem with anybody playing him because that’s that’s very very low and if Scotty has a bad tournament and Rory ends up emerging as the old Rory then you are in really

Really good shape but as far as my plays I I went down low kind of uh Patrick McDonald style here there’s so many names down low that are really good options and really popular options these three that I’ve picked are in the popular range but I plan on being a

Little unpopular up top I might take a chalky guy here or there I might take like a will zures I may play Scotty Sheffer here or there but I’m going to be willing to play some of the Patrick Klay lineups some of the Victor hin lineups so so I’m GNA kind of get

Different up top but Eric Van Roy 7300 Nick Taylor 6900 Doug gim 6800 a couple other names I’ll point out that are really popular really good plays Tom Hog’s in that mid 7K range of course uh Andrew Novak is is a really really good value in the low sixes Ben Silverman at

5500 there’s some plays but all three of these guys are in really good form Nick Taylor for one is in good form but he’s also proven he can win in great Fields I mean we just saw we’ve seen it a couple times over the last year actually Doug

Gim is a guy who is playing really good golf if you look at his stats it’s somewhat of a small sample size although Doug gim’s always been a good ball Striker but if you look at his stats over the last four tournaments not only are we seeing the good ball striking but

We’re seeing great short game to and we’re not used to seeing that from Doug gim if you would have ju toose Doug gim’s metrics over the last four tournaments with like name a top golfer like a Xander schofl it wouldn’t look that much different so I’m kind of

Riding the hot hand here it could absolutely blow up on my face with a tough test with with tough Talent um before him but I’ll take Doug game at 6,800 even though he is a little popular and then EVR I think this guy is emerging we see it with The Strokes gain

Metrics 7300 he’s going to be a little popular I don’t mind pivoting off of him but again I’m going to get different elsewhere and I think EVR actually has some like top 10 potential in this field as do as does Nick Taylor Doug gim maybe a little less so I actually agree with

All of your plays here and I wrote up Nick Taylor in my Sportsline article and I will talk about him later in the show another guy that I wrote up uh in my article and we’ll talk about later in the show is Austin eek wrote at 6,500

That is some majorly good value Patrick I agree you see that is why he is on the list I mean we’re forgetting this guy won a couple weeks ago iron play was still superb there at the Arnold Palmer Invitational I guess the one downside is uh it’ll be his tournament debut and TPC

S GRS can be tough to figure out but I I love the way he handled himself there at PGA Nationals so I think he’s uh gonna be okay and especially at 6,500 you can get pretty flexible from there ailano guio 7,400 is the next play T8 last week

The ball striking has been terrific uh we only faded him once and that that was because uh the Mexico open popular play there but he’s been great this entire year it’s a shorter positional golf course that’s kind of like Colonial uh where he won this past summer so the

History stinks but the current form is great so I’m gonna Prevail on that side and then Adam hadwin 7500 I’m just riding with my dogs this week Adam hadwin is one of my guys he’s burned us a couple times he’s made us look good a couple times he’s great at TPC Saw Grass

The iron plays great a couple top 20s here the last two years the putter needs to heat up a little bit but I think he has real real upside potential there at 7500 then I fading Justin Thomas at 106 I think people will drop from Sheffer

Skip Rory and go to JT and I still have some current concerns about parts of his long game he’s struggling with a snap hook to the left it it seems like he sold his soul to the devil with that shot on the 18th hole in 2021 when he

Won that Championship when that ball stayed in the Fairway but we saw it there at the API numerous times he hit it in the water on 11 three times all snap hooks he hit a almost hit a ball out of bounds on one snap hook uh and so

Because of that I I have some questions about you know pretty much like four iron up the proximity numbers aren’t great and you throw in that too on a course where you need to be really dialed off the te and I will pass on JT

Yeah this is a guy that hasn’t won since 2022 is PGA Championship either so you know it’s not like we’re talking about a recent winner especially he’s playing in field you know Austin eek root is winning tournaments Nick Taylor has won two tournaments in the last year Justin

Thomas has not won and the only reason he won that 2022 PGA Championship is because Meo Pereira had an epic meltdown on the 18th hole which I would add him to my list of guys to never bet on top all right it’s a special week it’s the

Honorary I guess the the fifth major so to speak that means Patrick McDonald is actually making frl picks but we’re gonna start with youa everybody Tunes in for this segment you have five that you’re giving away this week tell us why you like Tom hogi and Beyond I’m still so upset that Hideki

Matsuyama didn’t give us the first round leader we would have had to split it of course uh but uh when Shane Lowry made that comeback uh especially specifically at the turn when he went birdie birdy Eagle birdie to like all of a sudden be in the conversation I was actually

Really disappointed in that so hopefully we can make up for it here by the way Nick Cuchi asks if if I if I will unbutton the top button if I hit an outright the answer Nick of course is no okay Tom hogi we’ve talked about him

Listen this is a very guy this week in DFS and it makes a ton of sense Tom hogi has been very very good here and also his recent history again that’s course history he’s been good here but his recent history is very good he’s completely dialed in and he’s such a

Good course fit this is a positional course it’s it’s a tacticians course but what that really means is be dialed in on approach and just try to be dialed in uh with the putter short game’s going to come into play if it gets especially if

It gets windy and keep in mind these are smaller greens so short games going to come into play but one guy who can really get locked in with the putter but specifically on approach is Tom hogi so at plus 6600 for 18 listen I I think he could he could potentially contend for

72 holes but for 18 by the way these are all morning tea times for me uh I’ll take 66 to1 Keegan Bradley the form has actually been quite off but at 75 to1 I think I’m willing to speculate especially since I think he’s comfortable here you look at his history

Here and I do think even though you know we hear talk about well you know history doesn’t matter here it’s such a volatile course all of those things but Keegan spefic specifically with his form being kind of bad and that’s part of the reason we see 75 to1 as a first round

Leader I do find Value I think he could potentially pop in the first round here Nick Taylor we talked about the metrics look good 80 to1 looks good Christian and by the way Keegan Bradley has been good in first rounds here very recently almost being the first round leader now

I’ll say the same about Christian bedout because he’s had some good first rounds but some good tournaments here as well I think he’s a very good course fit as long as he stays in the Fairway he can be dialed in on approaching with the

Putter as well so I like that at 91 and then this is an extreme long shot obviously Ben Silverman at 150 to1 I just think Ben Silverman’s playing really good golf he’s backing it up with the metrics now granted it’s a very small sample size with Ben Silverman bet

At 150 to1 am I am I willing to put like two or three bucks down on it yeah the answer is yes because he’s been very good all right I like that a five pack including 150 to one got to love that now Patrick you agree with CA on Tom

Hogi who by the way owns the course record at TPC progress with a 62 last year yep round three it was terrific and I had a dream last night that the first round leader was gonna have a last name that began with the letter H so I fired

On all of them except chest and Hadley so that’s my one uh that’s where I’m exposed at the moment but Russell Henley 55 to1 like I said I’m going with my dogs Russell Henley I had this argument uh on the CBS Sports golf podcast I

Think he’s like a top 10 player in this field at the moment I really do and got a lot of heat for it but he’s a great course fit he’s putting the ball extremely well since the switch to Florida you look at Palm uh PGA National

And last week at the API where he finished T4 I think he’s in for a huge week I think he’s the most underpriced player on the entire board I mean he was 80 to one at some spots during the weekend if you could have found that uh

To win the tournament so first round leader 55 to1 I mean he’s a first round dog uh Tom hogi for all the reasons CIA said Adam hadwin rolling with my guys this week he is one of them at 80 to1 and then uh lee Hodes 175 to1 had a

Great opening round at the API he’s hitting the ball great uh David Gordon ESPN stats and research he’s been pounding the Lee Hodes drum for the past month and so you can you know hear him on SVP pod every now and again but really good golf follow if you’re into

Statistics and stuff like that uh so I am following suit and I’m gonna take a chance on Le Hodes at 175 to one did you really have a dream about all hes or is this just random uh it was it was just completely uh random that it happened

This way I wish I had dreams of like bets that were going to win because they doesn’t really work for me go ahead Patrick we so it happened before the final round of the US Open I had a dream and Tommy Fleetwood was in it and so I I

Hit him for lowest round of the day at 40 to1 because of that and he shot like 63 that day it was unbelievable is that right swear to God God it was like all my friend like I told my friends about it we’re all having dreams about it one

Of my friends had a dream about that the Titanic and a month later I won’t get into details but a lot of people know that story too when you when anybody that you know has a dream about somebody a bet that might win please help us out especially here on this program because

I need to hit an outright winner you did with Jake Napp the other week C and I are still waiting to hit our first outright we’ll get there but we want to start with matchups after we hear from one of our sponsors who’s in who’s out let the Madness begin

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship selection show on CBS and streaming on Paramount plus you know see I know this is a golf show but I saw one of your Social videos that popped up on the uh Sportsline Instagram feed you’re picking conference winners in college basketball

And you were very rude to my Arizona Wildcats so still shame they’re number six for goodness say yeah but for a number six team I mean they just let their fo off the gas way too often they no intensity I don’t know if it’s bad coaching something’s going on with

Arizona you know where the final four is this year Glendale Arizona it’s in it’s it’s it’s it’s happening go ahead Patrick an alma moer that might be there are uh C is James Madison Dukes that’s right that’s right and if you follow us on the early Edge you know that we hit JMU

Minus five and a half against Arkansas State yesterday jamu a pretty solid team they they could get to the Sweet 16 depends on the draw they’re frisky they are frisky very frisky I know it’s a golf show but we we had to I had to opine on that because it’s the first

Time I’ve seen CA since that video showed up in my timeline check that out on sportsline’s social Pages all right it’s time for matchups here on the early wedge uh we each have three of them this week see I will start with you uh give us why do you like you’re you know

Patrick was just talking about fading Justin Thomas and here you are you’re picking him over morawa yeah I mean that’s the thing is is I only have I only need Justin Thomas to be good against one other person I need him to win the tournament or be great in DFS

And I do think Justin Thomas’s Game and his history here is pretty solid there’s something going on with Colin morow and and I’m not smart enough maybe Patrick is to to sort of diagnose what’s going on with his golf game but to me it’s it’s miles away from where Justin

Thomas’s game is right now I do think Colin Mora was a good course fit but I would also say the same about Justin Thomas so honestly I think at minus 120 here I probably would have priced this the way Colin is playing at likeus 135us 140 and even at- 135 I would have

Considered it maybe not minus 140 but uh so I do think we’re getting value here and again Colin morawa could end up having a fine tournament but I do think there’s some upside with Justin Thomas I don’t disagree with what Patrick McDonald said and I do think JT can get

Into a lot of trouble here potentially but I also think given his experience here he’ll navigate the course pretty well my next one is oh by the way that one I’m going to double check but but all three of these are either at FanDuel or DraftKings uh one of them is at

DraftKings and two of them happen to be at FanDuel and I’ll verify that with everybody uh in just a second Doug gam plus 100 over Brendan Todd like I said Doug game has really been doing it granted small sample size as it pertains to the short game but he’s been doing it

Only for like four tournaments of the ball striking has always been there for Doug gim and clearly something seems to be good with the short game as far as Brendan Todd he’s a short game he’s been a short game specialist but the ball striking has not been there with Brendan

Todd so as long as Doug gim is some semblance of the Doug gim we’ve seen over the last four tournaments uh I love the even money against Brendan Todd here and then Matthew pavon my – 120 over Nikolai hoard uh pavan’s been very good lately and hoard specifically with the

Short game has been really Troublesome pavon ball striking great hoard’s ball striking okay but the short game I think is going to get him into a lot of trouble here so I like the minus 120 price here I honestly think this one similar to Justin Thomas probably should

Have been in that minus 135 maybe even touching the minus 140 range fair enough uh Patrick you know who the number five golfer in the world rankings is right now the corrupt official world golf rankings who is that’s correct yes who is it it is one Windam Clark and

You’re fading him and not getting plus money by fading the number five golfer in the world with zot torus and Henley why I I am picking on wendam Clark this week uh these are all at FanDuel apologies if the lines have changed I put these in early in this uh rundown it

Was a busy day blame the commissioner BL blame J Monahan uh yeah Will zator Tes minus 120 over Windam Clark uh a lot is made of will zalot torres’s broomstick the transition there that’s great he’s a much better putter but uh we were talking before this with uh CA I really

Like what he’s done with the driver he’s shortened that up a little bit he’s become much more accurate off the T and when you can do that at TPC sass you know what will zator can do he can lean on his strength of that iron play and so

Will zures I believe is going to be in for a very good week wendam Clark meanwhile he just Boomer bust I mean he gets everything out of his good weeks everything out of his good weeks and when he’s not good he’s not very good and so I think zalatoris has a similar

Ceiling in a higher floor so I’m gonna go with him at minus 120 Russell Henley minus 115 like I said I think he’s the most uh underpriced player on the board I think wiam Clark’s one of the most overpriced players and so this was kind

Of a match made in heaven I kind of I put two units on this one uh full disclosure it was it was a little bit of a little bit of a big boy bet might have been two and a half un he’s got some he’s got some extra cash after us

Sending him 300 yeah $300 he’s made from us of course more or less just rolled that over into this one uh so fingers crossed and then Austin EK wrot for the DFS reasons I mean still accurate off the te iron play is still good and Ricky Fowler he’s been horrible since the

Beginning of the new year horrible and I love Ricky fer I’m a Ricky Feller guy but something’s just not clicking nothing’s really going his way you look throughout the the bag and his Strokes gain statistics are all completely falling off a cliff uh since honestly like this time last year and into that

Resurgent summer so I will take e root in the OSU matchup minus 105 all right I ecro is a is a good play we will talk about him uh in the next segment which is finishing positions but in my head-to heads I’m GNA Shane Lowry and a couple

Of different ones get him over Colin morawa at even money at DK uh Mora’s lost his ball striking over his last four tournaments is actually negative you add them all up combin and he’s lost Strokes putting in all three appearances here uh Lowry by the way has two top 20s

In his last three here and by the way he has two top four finishes in a row right now where he’s just crushing it with his ball striking which is something that I want to see here at TPC s grass Brian Haron here’s here’s the reason I’m

Fading him this week uh lost putting l Strokes putting in four of his last five and in his last two here t44 and t63 lost on approach in both that is not a good formula so I’ll take the hotter golfer right now and Shane Lowry however

I will not pick Shane Lowry to win because he is on my will not bet to win list you saw how that worked with sheffler last week but the rest of the list is great I I promise you all right I also like minu Lee over Russell Henley

Uh minu lee finished T6 here last year despite disastrous and I mean disastrous putting which I will get to a little bit later on in 10 appearances here Russell Henley no top 10 only three top 20s minu Le might be a you know I don’t want to

It’s too early to say horse for the course moniker but might be a a big game hunter uh here uh in in a bigger tournament so I like mini at plus money uh and you can find that one uh on FanDuel all right uh finishing positions

You know I go big in these Patrick you stay away uh seea you temper your expectations I a few weeks ago I was crushing it with these last week will zalot Horus at least gave me somewhat of a return uh you and I are both playing

Him this week why do you like zal uh it’s good of you to change the subject but I I just I do feel like we need to go back a step here I mean you have minmi Patrick McDonald really likes Russell Henley I listen I I don’t want

To speak for you I know you just lost a bunch of money to Patrick McDonald but I do feel like that needs to be addressed I’m sure everybody in the chat is like hey what’s is something yeah I missed that I’m sorry Patrick do you have

Something to say the ball is in your court you you know I think uh a lot of people know about that transition from May to march with the PLAYERS Championship the course plays complete different and you did mention Russell Henley has three top 20s two are in the

Last two years uh when that transition has happened so I think you’re kind of missing a point I would love I would love to take another hundred bucks off you you see the ball is in your court if you’re willing if you’re not I totally understand I totally understand like no

Pressure at all but uh what do you think you know the best way to you know I believe in chasing and recouping losses so Jake hit the music And that’s fine I’ll take plus 105 I I don’t even need any extra juice from you uh I will get some of my money back this week from you thank you minui who actually like a lot this week okay uh sorry about that now we’ll move on to

Finishing positions I did not see that I was trying to uh you know I guess trying losing more money there we go all right seea you like zotus this week as do I why are you playing him top 30 yeah I mean I you know again there’s volatility

On this course right but and I can’t say for sure that zot Horus is going to win the tournament but given the consistency we’ve seen from him and I do think he’s even a better course fit this week than last week um I think a T30 at minus 110

Listen it’s not quite even money but but it’s pretty close and I do think zalatoris you know if we’re talking about no second tier let’s just go with my theory that it’s Scotty sheffler then there’s a big gap and then there’s like kind of everybody else I think zotus at

This point is in the conversation with that first tier of everybody else you know whether you who who do you want to put in there I don’t know Roy mroy uh maybe you want to throw in havland and Patrick Klay in spite of their their bad recent form but I’m starting to think

Zotus is in that conversation so in this field uh while it’s deep I think zalot torus is going to be consistently a T30 T20 type player uh Tom hogi by the way I first looked at this at t40 at minus 120 but I do think T30 is very much in play

So I I went with a much better number plus 140 we’ve talked about both of these guys so I don’t need to address it too much but again the course history here the recent form the course fit it all makes sense for Tom hogi these are conservative plays when you think about

Them that doesn’t mean they’re definitely going to hit but they’re pretty conservative plays to fall inside the top 30 uh and that’s how I’m going to play these two well I’m going to play one of them in an extra way which you’ll find out in a second but that’s how I’m

Going to play these two right now all right now uh that is that’s a smart play and a and a conservative play top 30 uh I like to get a little more risky and you know when you find your favorite bets and you’re just like I’m Gonna Roll

With them every week that’s will zures and I’m doing it again I had the same bet last week so we’re going to play will zator top 10 at plus 220 and top 20 at plus 105 you can find all of these lines at bmgm because at bmgm ties count

As wins so there could be a five-way tie for 10th and I’m getting paid my plus 220 I’m going Shane Lowry top 20 at plus 150 he has two top 20s in his last three here and as I talked about gained nearly 13 shots ball striking over the last two

Weeks and on in those uh last three tournaments uh at TPC Saw Grass gained 13 Strokes combined on approach which I really really like Nick Taylor top 40 plus 140 guy just won a couple weeks ago or six weeks ago here in Phoenix here in Scottdale uh he’s gained Strokes with

His irons in his last six and has four top 40s in that span including that win at TPC Scottsdale and then Austin ekot who we talked about earlier top 40 at plus 150 gained more than 15 shots with his irons in the last three weeks any thoughts count

No I was going to say by the way I’m looking at these again the wills alator is a less conservative play uh but but I certainly think that’s that’s a good play like these are all guys I’m kind of on I don’t have a bet necessarily on

Austin ekro uh but I really like that number so again a lot of volatility on this course but those are four guys that I think I think these numbers are right I think you grabbed really good numbers I I did want to address though EC there

Was a few questions in the chat um one was from Larry Bremner and kind of Japan about the weather the possibility of rain just know that that’s more of a DFS discussion than it is a betting discussion and it’s probably something we can answer maybe later because it is

Kind of a long conversation but when you’re trying to predict just the short and sweet part is when you’re trying to predict weather waves when you’re playing daily fantasy sometimes if you know it’s going to like thunderstorm or rain and a round’s going to be suspended you can take advantage of a perceived

Bad Wind wve by knowing that it might rain and wash a whole group of golfers out and suspend them to the next morning where going to be really good condition so that’s one way you can take advantage of in betting circles though typically especially the round matchups they’re

All going out together so there’s not necessarily going to be an advantage when you’re talking tournament matchups maybe you get one guy going out during a bad end of a wave or a good end of a wave that’s very case specific so it’s a very complex question that would require

Much more time than that the other thing and I think this is really interesting I’m sorry to interrupt the show but did somebody did ask about um Master’s picks and and I haven’t uh I’m going to put out an article like pretty soon on on a

Couple of picks I I don’t I don’t know if you guys have a couple plays but I did mention on the show a couple of weeks ago I put in Harris English at 250 to1 because I think that’s fun and I think Harris English is pretty good uh

The only other play I would make although it’s been bet down so much would be will zalatoris I don’t know where you can get that number at right now but it was another guy I liked anyway I don’t know if you guys have picks for the Masters already but I

Wanted to throw that in because it was addressed in the chat uh yeah I I wrote some up I already hate them uh so we can wait until April for the what do you mean you already hate him what are we doing here come on no no no I’m uh I Sam

Burns at 55 I I did that I mean playing great Strokes gained wise he’s top five in the world at the moment and then Adam Scott at a hundred uh but I think that’s just recency bias on my end since he burned me last week he was like one of two guys

To miss the cut the other being Matt Fitzpatrick who I also picked so got a little doing outrights this week uh we have a question he in the chat wants to know your thoughts Patrick uh Andrew Novak plus 175 in the top 40 you play it or not Revenge game for Andrew Novak

Right three straight top 10s didn’t get in the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational would have been number 70 in that field but Nick Dunlap had to play by himself he’s playing Great Golf yeah so so why not I followed him for a little bit there in Phoenix and he

Really impressed me he’s a very popular I might have mentioned it uh DFS play for good reason and there you have it all right as I mentioned you can bet all of these at bet MGM where you can get ties count as wins when it comes to

Finishing positions if you you are not a bmgm customer well today’s a great day to do it new bmgm customers can sign it today and get $150 in bonus bets just place your first wag of at least $5 and you will receive $150 instantly in bonus bets regardless of your wages outcome

With bonus code edge 150 that is Edge 150 all right before we see my autof Fades graphic including one Sam Burns again let’s hear from one of our sponsors the blackout mystery welcome to never know in the tournament who is going to shine stream March Madness live

On any device anywhere and be ready for anything all right now it’s time for where I got burned last week and it was my own fault for putting one Scotty sheffler in my auto Fades list Jake if you would U Pull up that list you know

To so Patrick can take a Victory lap yes we’re putting the line through Scotty sheffler but I still feel pretty good that none of these other seven guys Patrick are winning this week if you were to pick one I I know just kind of out inside your picks of these seven

That you would you would disagree with me on who would it be I will say someone on this list is on one of my picks but I I won’t disclose who uh but let’s just remember not only did I have one member of that final Duo I had both members of

That final group Sunday at the Arnold Palmer I was not wor it at all Shan yeah not at all not you you can’t you’re right you did and I thought about that going of the round I I was worried about sheffler obviously because then he

Turned into a gem of a final round low just can’t finish simple as that so he’s like I think he’s gonna play well I wasn’t worried in the least about that all right now let’s find out go ahead that’s that’s fair I I would say sam

Burns you’re you’re a big Sam Burns guy I I don’t know I just after what we saw I just I can’t do it so uh CA give us your picks for uh you’re outright so sorry Patrick’s freezing up I’m not sure if he’s aware of it so unless it’s me

That’s freezing up which no we’re I think I think it’s Patrick on this one uh all right see you’ll start with uh you have some interesting lines here you’re you’re playing this a couple different ways yeah and and for the record I’m not even I’m not even

Necessarily playing it each of these two ways on each of these options I just wanted to make sure people are were aware of the betting options CU most major sports books are now providing an outright option but also an outright option without Scotty Sheffer what does that mean it means if Scotty Sheffer

Wins you’re betting on the next guy to win after Scotty sheffler so you don’t lose the bet if you’re betting winner without Scotty Sheffer I know it’s pretty self-explanatory but just in case there are some markets that actually have Scotty and Roy meloy excluded given how well and this isn’t a market I

Usually put up here but I a I want people to be aware of it and B I do think as well as Scotty is playing there is some Merit on taking a depressed number a a a shorter number on some of these guys who could very well finish

Second place Shane L is a really good example of that by the way he’s plus 4,000 but if you want to take him without Scotty Sheffer you do have to give up a little bit but it’s plus 3,000 it’s up to you whether you want to make

That play I’m probably going to bet these each way if you will I’m going to bet the the the regular outrights and I’m going to put a little bit on the the outrights without scottty Shefler but we already talked about will zator so I don’t want to belab the point I do think

He has win Equity I I he kind of fizzled obviously on Saturday he picked up a bogey and then all of a sudden a double Bogey and I think he just rode that lack of momentum into Sunday I think he needs a little bit a few more reps in sort of

That potential Winner Circle mode on a Sunday especially coming off the injury to maybe gain some confidence so I do think last week served him well and I’ll say the same for Shane Lowry listen I don’t know if Shane Lowry can close but I know he’s in incredible form and I

Think he’s just going to do just what he did last week he’s going to keep it in the Fairway he’s going to be dialed in on approach and hopefully he’s going to find a good putter I’ll say the same about will zator Tony fow I think is interesting because anytime you’re

Talking about Tony fow at 60 to1 listen I don’t bet Tony fow a lot I can’t remember the last time I bet him but it’s 60 to one I’m willing to consider it because of two things one is the approach play has been absolutely dialed in ball striking approach play

Absolutely dialed in the other thing is the putter that’s the big problem here I wonder if these greens are going to be as tricky for Tony P these POA overseed as tricky for Tony F now as maybe some other greens and the other thing is last time out at Mexico he actually gained

Moderately with the putter so I don’t know maybe maybe I’m anticipating a trend here that hasn’t happened yet but maybe Tony fow is going to be a zero putter or maybe slightly gain with the putter if that’s the case and he can be dialed in on approach 60 to one I’ll

Take that all right I’m going to do you guys a solid just because I’m a nice guy because you and Patrick both have Tony F now I don’t need to Showdown here I’ll just put it this way I will send you each $100 extra if Tony feno wins on

Sunday that’s how confident I am that Tony feno is not winning the tournament okay you can clip that you can mark that down and if he wins uh don’t clip it and we’ll forget about that that actually happen but I’m that confident that I’m gonna send you each $100 at Tony fow at

60 or 65 to one wins all right Patrick tell me why you like fow this week all the reasons CA said it and just a a little extra nugget for f now last time we did see him the Mexico open he made a substantial switch in his putting

Setup you think about T Fe now on the early season on the west coast the toe was touch in the sky pretty much the toe of the putter it’s back on the back on the putting green it’s back on the grass and we saw that like ca said he actually

Gained somewhat there in Mexico so with the ball striking he’s definitely working on the putting these last couple weeks off took the API off because he doesn’t like Bay Hill I’ve bet Tony Fen out like 30 to one before unfortunately so I will bet him at 60 to1 and then

Russell Henley 50 to1 he’s kind of my guy this week it’s a light outright card for me because like ca has put I think Scotty sheffler is probably going to win this golf tournament so pretty light hoping to catch a first round leader to kind of pay for the bills this week and

Next week yeah actually that’s always good that’s always good put it on put it on first round leader credit now wait a second I like Sheffer to win as well I wasn’t gonna put a five to one on here you guys would have made fun of me for

That one I do like the way that CA played it uh what you can do if you want to bet cheer it’s my parlay Theory call me crazy but I locked one in where you you you watch the early Edge in the morning you take a couple of the plays

See you gave out uh you know a few plays this morning and I’m sure you know you’ll have more tomorrow college basketball with all these conference tournaments par parlay those with Scotty Sheffer and you get him at 20 to1 you can play Scotty Sheffer 20 to1 now you

Need to hit the other legs of the parlay but Sheffer you put 50 bucks on Sheffer 20 to1 win a thousand I don’t think anyone’s complaining nonetheless I’m rolling with Will zores here if we’re going to if we’re fading sheffler well alores I will bet him every single week

Uh his uh ball striking numbers have been fantastic between the Genesis and the Arnold Palmer Invitational he’s gained 15 shots ball striking uh both top fives so it’s awesome putting has been his issue here but his putting numbers have actually been positive lately so I will take it rolling with

Hideki Matsuyama uh he burned me at the Genesis but three top 10 here in eight appearances including a solo fifth last year don’t forget 2020 before covid ruined it Hideki matama shot a 63 in round one uh and would would have gone on I think to win that tournament um T12 last week

Uh had had his moments where he was up at the top of the leaderboard and then not at the top of the leaderboard but he wins in bunches generally so at 40 to1 I think it’s worth the shot minui so listen to this stat and I referenced it

Earlier he was T6 here despite losing six shots on approach normally I would never bet a guy who lost six shots on on approach but he gained seven on the greens and he gained two around the greens and the fact that in the last two weeks he’s gained nearly nine shots on

Approach so maybe he’s fixed those irons and we know he’s a really good Putter and around the greens 50 to one and and maybe a number even higher yeah I I’ll take a shot there I’m okay with that uh all right it’s time for long shots and I

Know we’ll we’ll get to mine a little bit later Patrick before the show is like do you ever win these yeah I I hit one uh earlier but I’m feeling good this week all right see you we’ll start with your long shots what you got well so I

Can’t even make fun of AC because I’m the guy this is such a flex but it’s not intended to be now it’s intended to be but I’m the guy who had a six matchup parlay on Friday I saw that congratulations I was so proud of you I

Was so proud I was not proud of myself in fact I didn’t even I forgot that I bet it I checked my account to check on like I had two matchups that day to check on those and then it occurred to me that I had put some money down on on

A 28 to1 uh six six gamer if you will um here the long shots I think these guys at least two um I I should say all three I do think they have win Equity again the winner without Scotty on these and the Tony fena won the odds are still

Long don’t forget Tony fow winner without Scotty was still 55 to1 and Tom hogi 70 to1 I do think he can win this tournament but again winner without Scotty 50 to1 Eric Van royan 120 to1 I do think Eric Van royan is is a pretty good course fit here and the game’s

Emerging in a way that I don’t think the odds necessarily reflect again winner without Scotty 100 to1 on that and then Jake knp I just couldn’t resist the number I mean listen I I I don’t know how good Jake knap is but at 170 to1 knowing that on a Sunday granted on that

Sunday that he won and beat out valaki he wasn’t very good so he did kind of buckle to the pressure a little bit but I I think now that this guy has a win under his belt I think it’s YOLO season and I do think he’s a pretty good course

Fit I do think he’ll keep it in the Fairway and be pretty good on approach which is part of the reason he’s picking up at least a little bit of moderate ownership in DFS and again if you want to play him winner without Scotty 50 to1

Not much of a difference there these are long shots for a reason like I’m literally putting like literally a couple bucks on these and calling it a day because these are long for a reason you know I do hold grudges Joe just referenced it in the chat uh it doesn’t

Matter with girlfriends or a a golfer like Patrick Klay when you when you let me down and you can’t hold a round a lead after three rounds yeah I hold grudges but Patrick apparently doesn’t because Adam Scott missed the cut last week you’re going back to the well at

100 to one you see we might have to have a full show based on uh some of your ex-girlfriend grudges I want to dive deeper into that later uh maybe behind the scenes but uh how how can you hold a grudge against Adam Scott I mean the Australian heart heartthrob winner here

20 years ago remember that they’re airing it on Golf Channel today uh it was a March player so we have that going for us but look it obviously didn’t work out for me at the API but the ball striking has been for a long period of

Time for Adam Scott short game was last week great history overall at TPC Saw Grass not just 20 years ago somewhat recently as well and I I like I mean 100 to one you could find worse and then Adam hadwin one of my guys I’m just

Going back to the well with him uh iron play is great good history here the couple years uh just needs to putter to heat up a little bit and I think he’ll be in the mix see you yeah real quick Moshi says in the chat he says no gim or

Taylor here of course he’s referring to Nick Taylor uh those were guys I considered honestly there were like five or six guys I considered in this super long shot range but I mean you got to cap it at some point and so gim was probably the next man in if you will he

He was he was the last one out using some March Madness and Bracketology lingo uh but gim is he’s he’s a fine play I don’t think he’s going to win but as far as long shots go I think if you wanted to put a couple bucks on them

That makes sense all right so normally for these long shots I do these parlay I put a unit on there and maybe you know know because if I win it’s going to help my Roi well this first one we’re going to go with a quarter of a unit you can

Find it at at plus 4500 on on DK and on FanDuel under turny specials that’s where I found this one 100 to one zalot torus and Hideki Matsuyama for top five I mean you know might as well take a shot at it at at that I ranked them

Second and third uh in my fantasy column this week behind Sheffer and ties do pay out so I will take that top 10 parlay I like this one uh give this one a half a unit uh you can find this at DK uh TI do pay out as well Windam Clark number five

Golfer in the world and one Shane Lowry who is a never bet outright but great otherwise so we’ll give him a shot at 19 to1 this one gets a full unit love this top 20 parlay you can find this at FanDuel uh it is a attorney special ties

Pay out Max hom who I like this week has a decent course history here Hideki Matsuyama and will alot torus top 20 at plus 1200 guys I am all about this one I I want to bet more than a unit on it I want to take Patrick’s $100 and spend it

In advance on this one and if so then in case I lose then I can I guess pay him out and afford that times 10 I don’t know something like that nonetheless I really like this hom Matsuyama zalatoris plus 1,200 you can find that turny specials on FanDuel all right before we

Get going here uh one of the sports books has a a bet uh will there be a hole-in one on 17 and they’re giving a profit boost and you get I think around two and a half to one or something like that so seea uh would you play plus two

250 for a hole in one on 17 this week uh I have an obligation to myself to not ever play Hoin one bets uh I think that would be fun because of the island green because of the nature of that hole uh it would be a no for me but real quick

Before you go to Patrick I do want to ask I do want to answer Scotty’s question he says he’s got EVR Novak and Austin ekro as long shots uh I mean like we’ve mentioned all three of those uh this show and I I actually think those are great long shots Stewie I think

They’re also great to play in DFS and and the other thing because I have an answer to this Larry Bremer says what happened to top country players there was one I was considering but I backed off um it was ailan guo versus Nico e Bia and Camilo Vias uh it was minus 120

For guo which I think most people like just right right off the cuff but I will say this ET Bia gave me a little bit of pause because he’s actually in pretty good form I still like it though it was very very close to being an official

Play so if you want to look for that market it’s basically a three ball because there’s only three players but guo at minus 120 I think is a is a pretty good number in that uh top South American Patrick hole in one on 17 is this a bet you would ever

Make I I’m kind of with sea where uh I’d probably avoid the BET overall but some 17 statistics for you I get it it’s fun it’s going to be on TV a lot uh from 2003 to 2015 zero hole in hole in ones on number 17 from

2016 to 23 seven including three last year the first time in tournament history that multiple holes in one were on 17 in the same tournament so clearly these guys are starting to figure it out what what are the odds what is it to to

Yes on the hole in one I think with the bonus you get like plus 250 or thereabouts because I will say this the the wind my understanding and we have to wait because it’s only Tuesday night but my understanding is that Thursday Friday for the most part the wind is going to

Be down and we know the the wind especially in 2022 but other other years too it can absolutely wreak havoc if the wind going to be down I do think it lends itself to maybe being a little bit more dialed in on on 17 on on shorter approaches shorter part 3es I’m gonna

Make a bold prediction that no one will get a hole inone on Sunday because that pin placement is a nightmare on the right side of the green I would like to and I don’t know if you know this off hand Patrick when’s the last time

Somebody had a hole in one in that pin placement on Sunday I probably just doing that out there uh literally last year are you serious yeah Alex SMY but no you’re definitely when it comes to because the easy one the funnel pin at the front where they

Throw it back and they spin it back is uh typically Saturday but Friday is tough it’s in the back Thursday’s not the easiest either so Saturday is typically the hole in one day but yeah Alex mly he got one on you last last uh Sunday I’m gonna tell you what if you

Watch this show look at the knowledge that these two guys have Patrick just pulled that Alex SMY I mean you I could have guessed 143 players on tour and Alex SMY would not have been the one that I would have chosen for that so uh guys is always

Great Intel for The Unofficial fifth major The Players Championship this weekend uh make sure to check out all of the Articles of sportsline.com Patrick has a couple CA has one I have one uh thanks to producer Jake he does a great job every week uh and as I always like

To say let’s hit it big good luck