Action Network baseball experts Sean Zerillo and BJ Cunningham join Brendan Glasheen to preview the NL Central division and give out all of their best bets on the latest episode of Payoff Pitch presented by BetMGM. Click here for more MLB picks: https://bit.ly/MLBAction
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00:00 – Introduction
02:58 – St. Louis Cardinals
05:25 – Milwaukee Brewers
11:20 – Chicago Cubs
16:01 – Justin Steele
20:50 – Milwaukee Brewers Pt. 2
26:26 – Freddy Peralta
28:56 – Cincinnati Reds
38:17 – Pittsburgh Pirates
44:56 – Rapid Fire Final Bets
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#AuthorSeanZerillo #AuthorBrendanGlasheen #AuthorBradCunningham
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Welcome in to payoff pitch action Network’s MLB betting podcast we are here presented by our friends at bet MGM the king of sports books brenon glashen in The Host chair with Shan zerillo and BJ Cunningham two that cover baseball and other things for us at Action
Network uh we’ve got a lot to get to it’s another division preview in this one we’re going to discuss the NL Central and joining me we’ve got BJ and Sean so we’ve already got some previews out there if you’re just hopping in getting your feet wet again in the
Baseball time of year on the diamond AL East NL West previews out there from last week so you can go check those out wherever you listen to your podcast we have a long shots episode and an opening day preview that are coming so be ready for that uh during the season payoff
Pitch will have Best Bets uh episodes on Mondays Tuesdays and Friday mornings you can get those uh just before the noon Eastern hour those will be out ready to go get ready for the Slate Etc that’s coming once the season starts and 2024 player props episode is also available
Now you don’t want to miss any of our coverage uh during the baseball season so please subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen also a five-star rating and review We greatly appreciate it negative positive so be it uh five stars are great if you’re watching we do
Have a video version on our Action Network YouTube channel that’s helpful too if you want the video version want to look at our mugs and really get a sense if there’s conviction behind what we’re saying cuz sometimes audio doesn’t do it justice uh find us there Action Network YouTube subscribe to the channel
And uh like the video if you like the content or don’t like it um that can go either way all right gentlemen BJ I’m excited to talk to you again it’s been a bit uh NL Central St Louis Cardinal and Chicago Cubs it seems those two teams
Are the the two co- favorites based on on the numbers uh St Louis Cardinals at plus 175 at Bed MGM the at plus 200 uh Sean zerillo you start us off a general opening thought on this division am I wrong in saying the odds are the odds
Incorrect that the Cardinal and the Cubs are are the two teams to pay attention to to maybe win the division well I think any of these teams can win the division ultimately if you look around the projection Market basically everybody projects everybody in the division to win between 75 and 85 games
You know there’s a very high floor but also a very low ceiling on all of the teams in this division including the Pirates you know projections I think the Pirates can win as many 78 games this year and obviously that’s just a projection which means they can exceed
That and potentially be a wild card team depends how early paules comes up we’ll talk about that later uh but yeah I think this is a massive division there is a team that I like at longer odds to come out on top here not the Cardinals
Or the Cubs uh but in terms of the Cardinals just starting it off I do like this team to go under I think this team is old I think there’s downside here I think there’s a potential if they’re out of it they trade Paul Goldman and a lot
Of their season or they I should say they raised their Flor relative to last year right there’s no more Dakota Huds in here rip he’s now in Colorado best of luck with that Dakota uh I mean greatest ever do it Dakota Hudson 38- 20 for the
384 ER and a sub 1.5 strike out the Walker ratio so they’ve moved away from these pitch to contact guys they finally got real major league pitchers in that rotation Sunny gray Kyle Gibson Lance Lynn seiling kind of capped on all three of those guys but they do raise the
Floor of the team should give them Innings across the season and just have less below average pitching uh coming out of your rotation as I mentioned with guys like Dakota Hudson but uh that said these guys still have injury concerns and Home Run issues and they’re older
You know they’re all 36 years old and above and or I guess uh not sure how old Sunny is but Sunny’s already banged up um’s 34 over 36 yeah everybody in the rotation is 35y old 34 older except for Liberator um terms of their lineup goldm as I said
You know preasent could trade them if they’re struggling but they need to get guys like Mason W who will be their opening day short stop and Victor Scott who’s been impressive in spring training with his speed that’s the direction the game is going speed and defense and this
Is a team who has been a great defensive Club in the past continually overperform projections due to their defensive value and last year they were a bad defensive team and frankly this year they don’t project as a particularly good good defensive team either Nolan gorin at
Second base uh still don’t really have a true center fielder I don’t think Dylan Carlson is an actual center fielder you know not having Bader there anymore just locking down an elite center field so yeah this team has sort of changed its identity in recent years they’ve gotten
Much older and they need bounce Backs from Aron and goldm and you know production from these starting pitchers to make the playoffs be in an a divisional run I I don’t see anything better than like a number three starter in that rotation number four it’s a bunch of number fours uh you know
Sunny’s hurt so yeah under on the Cardinals I make them 81 and a half projection Mark of them has them between 83 and 85 uh so under 85 and a half or 85 for me about three wins lower than my projected number that is where or higher than my projected number that’s where
I’d bet it down to 85 would be my lowest on St Louis and beyond that I think there’s other ways to play this division okay BJ it’s very uh red soxi and what the Cardinals are up to as far as it’s a bridg it’s a bridge year for the
Cardinals it feels all right we we we’ll go out and get some of these arms and see if we can piece it together like zerillo said eat Innings home run problem and two big bats in the middle of that order with gold Schmid and Aron where are you at on the Cardinals are
They deserving favorites or are you like zerillo are you uh I’m like zerillo I generally I think this this division is completely wide open you know as we’ll get to further in this one um you know the Cubs are an interesting team to say the least and how the market perceives
Them versus how the projection Market perceives them there’s actually a pretty significant Gap in terms of you know them making the playoffs winning the division comparatively to how the market has them um Cardinals like Sean said they’re just old you know that rotation can fall apart in an instant and once it
Does then they’re completely vulnerable Pirates are obviously very interesting with their lineup and their Bullpen that they have but starting pitching is a question mark for them but the team that I’m going to Target here and I know Sean’s going to talk about them later as
Well is the Brewers over 77 and a half wins I think that the market is completely soured on this team because they traded cor Corbin Burns this is a team that won 92 games last year you know if you look at um they did overperform by about two wins but
Generally should have won around 90 games uh the rotation after losing Burns does hurt right because now they go to Freddy Peralta as their Ace Wade Miley Jacob junis Colin rehea and DL Hall you know Miley junas and Ray all average to below average pitchers and nothing
Really exciting about them but DL Hall is a very very interesting guy who if he hits can really turn this Brewers team around so he you know for a long time he was one of the very highly rated prospects in baseball you know left-hander who can throw above 95 miles
Per hour those guys are always going to be coveted last season he came out of the bullpen for the Orioles because he obviously came over with the trade for carbin burns also Joey Ortiz coming over as well is also interesting for them um his fast Ball’s electric Stuff Plus on
His fast ball was 122 because he he’s in the 93rd percentile in terms of his extension and how far he can get to throw that fast ball so it makes it really difficult for hitters to actually face him when he can go that far and throw that hard and have that greatest
Stuff on him last year you know what he struggled with in the miners his slider got hit around a lot his change up got hit around a lot but last towards the end of last season on his slider he added nine inches of drop on it and didn’t lose any
Velocity so it’s a really really interesting case of he’s struggled with his commands his pitches are amazing if he can find it at the major at the major league level he’s only pitched out of the bullpen and he has pitched pretty well of the bullpen but the question
Mark is what happens when he has to face the lineup the second the third time around if he can hit and he can be their second best pitcher which is you know what his potential is to be it’s a very very interesting case of can this Brewers rotation be really good and
There’s some other interesting things that are really good about the Brewers now last season towards you know they were a below average offense hit pretty well over the second half of the season so with you know and they’re basically just relying on Christian Yelich adames and William contras that was basically
It nobody else was giving them really any significant production so what do they do they go and get Reese Hoskins from the Phillies who’s obviously coming off ACL te so but when he was healthy he was hitting 30 you know 27 home runs then 30 home runs the year before that
You know around to 350 weighted on base average still still a very good hitter and he’s already got two home runs in spring training they go out and they also bring in Gary Sanchez who if you look at his numbers he had the best last year he has his best number since 2019
So he can platoon with conteras or play DH as well and they’re bringing up their top their top prospect Jackson Trio who is the third widely regarded as the third overall best Prospect in baseball is going to play center field so there is some exciting things about this Brewers lineup actually improving and
Becoming you know not not a not a Elite offense but at least becoming an average offense rather than being in the bottom half and then the Brewers have an elite ballpen last year they were top 10 in pretty much every category that you look at they didn’t lose really anybody
Significant they still have Devin Williams hly Milner ybe all of their good arms in there in that Bullpen and they were also the best defensive team in baseball last year and that’s not going to change either so you have an elite team that’s in their bull an elite
Team on defense which we’ve known over the years can really Propel teams to a a really high floor so if you have an average offense and you have DL Hall coming up and Freddy Peralta has a good season there’s no reason why this Brewers team shouldn’t win has a good
Chance to win the central so and if you look at the projection Market everybody is high on the Brewers like there is not anybody who’s below 77 and a half wins on them there’s you have people as high as 80 82 wins on them so I don’t see
This significant drop off going from 92 to 77 on the Brewers when yes they traded Corbin Burns but they got better offensively and their Bullpen is still Elite okay we’ll get more in depth on the Brewers in a second because the team wedged in between them odds wise the
Chicago Cubs which if I recall they were a fun team to bet on on a nightly basis in the second half of the season they had a good run almost gotten the playoffs they were in the thick of that wild card race Craig Council goes from Milwaukee to Chicago um and speaking of
Defense up the with heer and Dans B Swanson they’ve got a nice tandem there we’ll talk about their pitching I’m sure some young arms that have come alive uh they got Bellinger back that was a signing that was made just before we started doing these previews how about
The Cubs zerillo I mean they’re not a I I can tell by what you said before that’s not your long shot team necessarily but I’m sure there are ways that you can buy in on the Cubs because of their their youth and their defense so the projections want you to
Bet the under here I would not though and know on paper I like this Cubs team they’d be the team I would pick on paper to win the division not only in terms of their current roster construct but I think also their willingness to add in season their ability to flip prospects
For Major League hitters or potentially bring up a guy like perro Armstrong who’s immediately gonna be one of the best defensive center fielders in baseball you mentioned Swanson and hoer up the middle I love niik horer as a player uh I think perer Armstrong is going to put up you know defensive
Highlights every day once the Cubs eventually bring him up he’s going to be a a very high caliber player for them Bellinger overperformed to an insane degree last season I think there’s a reason why the market for him was so soft and I’m not really sure ultimately what he is going
To give the Cubs but another guy who you know they would assume has a very high floor based on the skill set that he has and at minimum is going to give them good defense and also can play center field if they need him to if Mike talkman isn’t hitting but uh Bellinger
Last year a 330 expected weighted on base average 370 actual weighted up base average so overperformed pretty significantly relative to what was expected had a lot of batted ball Lu I think sh managa is GNA be a really good pitcher for them if you were betting national league rookie of the
Year and Yoshi Abu Yamamoto did not exist imaga would project as the next best pitcher in terms of win above rookie next best rookie in terms of wins above replacement in the National League Jung hoi is third um SE Suzuki had a major second half breakout for them
Finally hit finally seemed healthy since he came over from Japan he was healthy for about a month during his rookie season then got hurt really struggled to stay healthy or get healthy again until the second half of last year he was a two and a half win player in the second
Half of last season so I think sead do for a breakout could be an All-Star this season I think shoda is going to be really difficult for hitters to adjust to or figure out especially in the first half that said I think there’s going to
Be days at rley field where the wind is blowing out where sha imaga is on the mound and you want to be betting players on the other team to home run I mean just bet everybody in the other team to hit a home run because he does have a
Fly ball problem and he is going to give up dingers but beyond that they should be a lot of solo shots they should be generating a lot of strikeouts so I like this Cubs Steam on paper as I said though the projections lean under I project them at 82 the projection Market
Has them between 81 and 84 if an 85 and 85 and a half pops up before opening day I would probably consider betting that under but I need to wait for that you it’s the same price Target I basically sat on the Cardinal I said I want under
85 or 85 and a half on the Cardinal no lower I don’t want anything lower than 85 and a half on the Cubs but the mass says there is value on the under the mass says there’s value on them to miss the playoffs I just think there’s some
Uh in the betting Market there’s some chance percentage being baked in that they’re going to add to this roster before the tread deadline is over so the Cubs on an upward trajectory not a team I want to fade the Cardinals seem like the team you know who’s trending towards
That rebuild where the Cubs are sort of entering their their Peak as a team and entering their next competitive phase and who knows maybe on certain nights not every night the ballpark might be helpful for sha yes yeah could be going the other way and blowing in absolutely
Uh so yeah good guy to keep an eye on with the wind and the weather and the parks throughout the year because I I think there’s a chance like he gives up five home runs and some starts and then goes you know a few weeks without giving up
Any all right and I’m looking forward to Anthony dundo Cub system plays on Fridays when they play at 1 or two o’clock in the afternoon those those were fun we need more day baseball just more day baseball in general you know if the Cubs want to be America’s team and
Just play Day games all the time uh they can definitely raise their profile and become more marketable they just become everybody’s you know daytime work betting team so Chicago Cubs you have that opportunity to expand your brand and become the most popular betting team in in the country just by playing all
Your games there day as a parent we should play all all games uh during the day all of them that would suit your every game daily schedule yes it really would yeah I really would if if we could do that that’d be great we have content all over the action app getting ready
For baseball and BJ Cunningham has a new piece out at action network.com it just dropped last week uh player prop predictions home run strikeouts uh those totals season long totals and Justin steel of the Cubs the frontend starter is featured as one of your picturers uh
In Justin steel if I recall last year too we were there was a there was an open there was a slight sliver of him maybe making a run for a sa young down the stretch uh we talked about him on the podcast during the week last year in
The late summer why don’t you take it there BJ on Justin Steel in this Cubs team yeah so it’s not really like a a bad or like a a knock against Justin steel really I his strikeout total is just incredibly high so he’s at you know
You can find as high as 175 and a half strikeouts right now um he hit I mean if you think about the level that he went to last season he hit 176 strikeouts at a basically a Sai Young pace for the entire season right so he’s maintained over the last two seasons
About a little over nine K per n rate uh so for him to to hit that essentially a lot of projection models have him kind of progressing towards the eight and a half range or down there because he basically only threw two pitches right I know his fast ball he can you use
Different arm angles and change it up and that’s and that’s great but basically only throwing a fast ball on a slider is is concerning for a pitcher you know especially if you’re starter like you know if you’re somebody like Spencer Strider who has you know an elite
Fastball and Elite slider like you can get away with just throwing two pitches but for someone like steel eventually he’s going to get figured out a little bit and not strike people out at this incredibly High rate so you know a lot of these you know this is kind of just
In general for this Market of players season long like strikeouts and everything you know it a lot of these pitchers it’s you know it’s not going to be very it’s going to be very difficult for them to actually get to the numbers that are put out there just because of
The amount of innings they have to throw the Caper 9 rates they have to maintain over an entire season so you know if you want to go read my article you can be more about steel and a lot of other guys but um you know I I generally believe
That the market comparatively to what the projection system has systems have for a lot of these pitchers you know steel Sunny gry a lot of these you know a lot of pitchers included is that it’s just too high you know like they’re basically the market is saying is
They’re going to maintain the levels that they reached you know the previous season which for pitchers is is generally just not true as they get deeper into their career BJ what was the total 170 uh was a 175 and a half out there that’s insane so a couple things
Uh first off he threw 30 starts last year 173 Innings barely cleared that 176 strikeouts he’s had the same strikeout rate for the past two years as BJ said same pitch mix throws two pitches he left his start last year with a forearm string he had UCL tightness when when pitchers spent time
On the I with the previous season in with arag there’s a 50% chance that they M time the Following season with an armag he only made 30 starts he made 24 the year before even in a full season he may not clear this so if you B in any
Injury time whatsoever he goes way under uh yeah that’s that’s ridiculously high for justice there and there’s and there’s a couple other guys like that out there that you can find yeah I uh you know if you really want to find an edge on that market Beyond just the
Projections look at guys who had injuries last year arm injuries specifically forarm injuries that’s a pretty good indicator of who’s going to have trouble The Following season in terms of making their full allotment of starts I think that number is too high just based on he only clears that if he
Makes a full season of starts and maintains the similar level there’s any different performance if he misses any time on the I that goes under and you win your bet so that’s a that’s a tremendous Edge BJ really yeah so and that and funny enough that number is at
B MGM Brandon so if anybody likes to go bet it you can go bet it at B bet MGM the king of sports books that number other markets it’s coming down uh into the high 160s so a number you’d want to grab sooner line and just uh you cross one two three
Six different projection systems from fangraphs uh one steamer has them getting 174 strikeouts and 31 starts everybody else has them between 139 and 166 in between 29 and 31 starts so like I said if he misses four starts with an injury there’s no chance he clears that
Number if he misses two starts he probably doesn’t get there either all right let’s go to the Brewers I’ll go to zerillo first because BJ gave some thoughts on the Brewers already uh the absence of Corbin burns the Brewers good note here uh the Brewers have
Cleared their win total in six of the last seven full seasons so that acknowledges the 2020 shortened season uh this is their lowest win total those since 2017 the Milwaukee Brewers at 77 and a half which is what the theme was when we introduced the segment introduced the
Division these teams are all cluttered together so where are you at on the Brewers zerillo with no Corbin burds in the rotation I’m on the higher side of the projection Market which is between 79 and 83 wins so everybody expects them to go over whatever total was out there
I mean there was as low as 752 742 earlier in this spring but right now even 77 and a half everybody still thinks they’re going over that this is my favorite wi total bet probably of all win total bets on the board this year any division Brewers over 75 and a half
This is a 500 team and even if they trade guys even if they trade Willie Damas I still think this could be a 500 team they’ve got guys in the miners and Joey Ortiz might start on opening day for them but even Tyler black guys who
Aren’t on their top prospect list who I think are going to come up and give them contributions offensively this year this offense isn’t improved and this position player group is improved and even guys like Joey weamer Joey weamer has tons of tools just hasn’t figured out how to put
The bat on the ball yet but can do I mean has the power has the speed has the defense if he figures out the contact skills Joey weamer is going to be an All-Star so there’s a lot of skills there that the Brewers have on this roster uh BJ didn’t mention South Frick
But I think he’s a really high floor outfielder for them a lot of contact from him they kind of have these interesting pieces that they haven’t really had in the past I mentioned Tyler black briefly but he put up like great numbers in miners last year not on their
Top prospect there’s just going to be contributions from this Brewers offense that you haven’t really gotten to the Past very dead offensive team typically obviously the rotation is scary that’s not what I’m focused on because that’s not what the Brewers were focused on they’re focused on that Bullpen and
Managing the end of games and getting slight leads and The more I’ve thought about it I actually kind of like Pat Murphy as their new manager one there’s continuity there you know being council’s bench coach but two this is a guy who had previously managed in college and is’s used to pulling
Pitchers in and out of the game very aggressively and you know managing his team like a Collegiate team and that is almost what the roster builds that this Brewers team has they’re built like a college baseball roster so I like the Brewers quite a bit you know not only in
Terms of going over their projection but also to have a chance to win this division the average projection I want to be very clear the average projection again of all those projections that have winning between 79 and 83 games they would put their divisional odds at plus
470 you can get double that number out there right now and based on the higher end of the direction Market which is where I am their odds should be closer to about 20% so roughly plus 400 on Milwaukee again you’re getting 10 to one nine to one I like that down to about
Five to one or better on Milwaukee to make or to win the division the only reason I haven’t bet them to make the playoffs yet I’m not sure if there’s more than one team coming out out of the NL Central you know I don’t really love
Taking a plus 350 on Milwaukee to make the playoffs when the only path to making the playoffs might be them winning division at 10 to1 there’s teams from the NL East that I prefer to make the playoffs we talked about that the Marlins teams from the NL West that I
Prefer to make the playoffs Giants so the Brewers not to make the playoffs necessarily even though there is value on that bet I just much prefer the win total and their divisional odds and then two of their pitchers I like for Hardware are regular season leaders
Freddy Peralta 60 to1 sa young BJ can talk more about that but I’m targeting him in the sa young Market because you can get better odds on his sa young than you can on his strikeout leader Market if Freddy Peralta is pitching enough Innings to win the strikeout leader he’s
Certainly pitching enough Innings to win the sa young and if he leaves the league in strikeouts he’s probably winning the sa young too so would rather take 60 to one on pral to sa young than I would on strikeout leader and that holds true for almost any pitcher except for one which
We’ll actually talk about in a minute uh and then saves lader Deon Williams correlation to my liking the brw to over their win total but has full control of that saves roll Devon Williams 18 to1 to be the saves leader I think he’s going value as
Well last four seasons an erra of two and a half or lower back-to-back All-Star games and that’s back to BJ’s point about being high on the back end of their pitching staff the bullpen uh for the Milwaukee Brewers okay yeah they’re going to manage it differently they’re they’re just going to get guys
In and out you know let starters turn over for five innings and then mix a match the rest of the way but Migel uh Joel pams uh Hobie Milner Abner I mean these guys are all High Caliber relievers that most teams would have in their you know eighth inning ninth
Inning role and they can just Trot them out in the middle of the games this Bru bullpens Elite probably the best in baseball I’d say them or Tampa have the best bullpens and as you know Tampa had other team have very high on this year I actually really like you uh bringing up
The point about the Brewers going over there wi total Brennan because I meant to research this morning I I had that thing in My article about the Rays and how they consistently overachieve by n wins I’m sure the Brewers you know are on a very similar trajectory in terms of
Overperforming relative to their projected or listed wi total too so that’s something I G to check out after the podcast I’ll probably tweet it out if there is you know a big gap there because it seems like Milwaukee’s always underprojected as well okay um BJ want to quickly touch on
Freddy Peralta yeah so Freddy Peralta for Sai Young um he’s you know he’s obviously now number one in the rotation there’s no longer this you know sometimes what happens in the sa young Market is um guys get kind of overshadowed by their teammates right so Corbin Burns is pitching really really
Well and even if baralt is pitching really well he kind of gets overshadowed and that kind of happened in both 2021 and 2022 um with Woodruff as well so when you had two really good starters and Peralta was number three nobody really was like you know kind of looking
At him now he’s number one he is the number one starter and if he can reach the level that he did in 2021 and 2022 where he was you know in 2021 he was a 2.81 ra 2.6 expected ra 2022 2.7 expected ra last season he took a little
Bit of a dip you know his expected went up to about 3.4 and what that was correlated to is he started to have a little bit of a home run problem you know that had never existed before in his career you know he’s always been
Below a one you know home run per nine rate and pretty significantly below that and then last year he ballooned up to 1.4 so I’m not really sure what happened there uh you know maybe is just a case of um some guys just have bad luck over an entire season they start figuring
Things out but if he can find you know the level I mean like Sean said he’s GNA be right up there in terms of leading league and strikeouts I now sea mentioned in his article he was tied for the highest strikeout rate over the second half of baseball with Tyler glas
Now um you know over the entire season 11.4 strike K per N9 rate even in 2021 I mean he was over 12 so he’s going to get a significant amount of strikeouts what it comes down to is can he pitch enough Innings to get there you know in 2021 he
Threw 144 Innings last season was the first time he threw over 160 Innings if he can get there and he can reach the level that he was at 2021 or 2022 in terms of his expected metrics and actually you know posting a low ra and eliminating this home run problem he’s
Definitely going to be up there PR sa young I’ve seen you know uh there are some projection models that have him in terms of top five for projected war in the NL I know uh the bat was one of them you know a lot of them around you know
That eighth ninth range range so if you’re looking for a long shot a guy who has that potential to get there you know Freddy Peralta is is a fantastic buy uh now being number one in that rotation playable at 25 to one I’d say 30 to1 is probably the cut
Off I wouldn’t I would not go lower than that okay all right the cluster continues uh the Cincinnati Reds actually have a higher projected wind total than the Brewers they’re at around 82 and the ected that’s that’s what’s fascinating is you go to pakota or Fang graphs and it’s jumbled all over the
Place it doesn’t equally match up with the projections you’ve got the Reds at 78.4 projected wins by picota um zerillo are we we where we where we at on the Reds um because you got revealing all this High Praise for the Brewers where does that leave the Reds
And we’ll get to the Pirates of course they’re near and dear to our hearts from what I’ve G the reds are the public team the public favorite team in this division in terms of betting to win the division betting win total overs they seem to have taken a lot of money this
Year for me there’s value going the other direction to miss the playoffs or to go under their win total again another team I’m not actually betting against because I do think this division is a mess and anybody can emerge and one of them will probably fall out completely you know if the Cardinals
Lose 12 games below expectation 15 right if the Cardinals win 70 games and trade gold SCH away and completely blow the team up and everybody else probably goes over their win total for the year so you have to be a little bit careful sometimes one team in a division goes so
Far under or so far over their win total that it skews the results for the other four and the other four end up going over or under so no interest in actually betting against the Reds in fact I think during the season you can kind of fuel
Them out see if they’re a team who may be interesting may be ready to take the next step forward if multiple of their hitters are sort of popping together right if Ellie’s improving if Kristen and carosi on strand looks like a force if no all Marte comes up and he looks
Like he’s an immediate Allstar and maybe you’re actually interested in taking the Reds to make the playoffs a plus money or something like that but for now preseason going to wait would lean to the unders projection Mark that has them anywhere between 79 and 82 wins I’m
Right in the middle at about 81 so would want an under 84 you know that would be the price Target under 84 at this point terms of big bets uh player props long shots I mentioned for strikeout leader hunter green is the one guy I would bet
For strikeout leader at a worse number than his saong because with the home perk the home runs his overall skill set I don’t necessarily see him getting to that saong level but last year he was eighth in strikeout rate among starters who threw at least 100 Innings he’s
Adding a splitter this season which would increase that strikeout rate further would also increase his walk rate but definitely get more KS as a result and I just think if he pitches you know 180 Innings plus hunter green given that strikeout rate is going to be in that 200 130 strikeout plus territory
May not have the ratios the ra and the whip to contend versus sa young but certainly in terms of strikeouts he projects near the top of the leaders and this is not a market where I took too many shots against Spencer shrider I really only think I bet green and one
Other pitcher but hunter green at 30 to1 I think worth poking for strikeout leader and then lastly Ellie I think you need to find ways to bet Ellie because betting into player prop markets are betting on upside you’re betting that 99th percentile outcome and how many
Players Beyond laa Cruz are at 120 to1 with a realistic chance of winning an MVP I don’t think any uh you know the upside on this guy is like very few have in baseball I mean it’s there’s a club for me with aunia and Julio Rodriguez
And Bobby Whit and I think Ellie is the only other guy I would put in there apologies to Corbin Carroll but I don’t think Carroll has 30 plus 35 Plus home run potential I think those are the four guys in baseball who could realistically go 404 in a season and putting Ellie on
That short list if he makes serious gains in terms of his plate approach I think is very very realistic tied with Bobby Whit for the pastest player in baseball last year in terms of Sprint speed and Cincinnati stole more aggressively than any other team in baseball 238 attempts was 28 more than
Any other team I’ve said steel attempts are going up this season given the success rates of last year so Ellie 121 yeah maybe a little bit crazy 10 to one to be the Steels leader I think much more realistic at a bet with for making he sto 35 bases in 427 plate appearances
Last year and I think the projections are super low based on projecting progression off of that this year if he gets a better on base percentage if he’s getting on more this is an easy 50 plus deal season projections have him you know going up by 125 plate appearances
And four steals I do not see that I understand regression I understand how projections work I spent all of my time doing this realistically you have to look at the situation and say if Ellie plays a full season he’s stealing 10 bags per 50 plate appearances so 600
Plate appearances 60 steals I think that’s the floor for him I think he gets 70 if they push it a little bit more aggressively so 10 to want to be the steals leader on a guy who we saw steal second third and Home in three pitches
Last year love that bet not a huge value right compared to that number but a number I think should be8 to one or nine to one not 10 to one so I’m gathering high ceiling if everything goes right in starting pitching wise with ldo and Abbott had
Nice year they added montis from the Yankees Abbot is so strange because Abbott has nothing about his projections you know his stuff the numbers that really says he should be as good as he is but for whatever reason he seems to defy it you’re just going to have to
Kind of accept with Andrew Abbott unless we see this year that he completely falls apart and kind of falls back to what we would expect based on the projections and the stuff plus I think abbit might just have to be a guy that we accept as going to defy the
Projections so a really weird pitcher uh but definitely worth keeping an eye on throughout the season because I think he’s just going to be one of those guys who tends to overperform what you expect BJ in is this an individually driven team maybe a nightly team
Throughout the year or is there a season long look on the Reds that you have yeah I mean I I don’t I’m Sean I’m not really interested in you know betting their win total under because of the potential that they have on this roster and where
They can get to uh the question marks that surrounded them last season is they were the second worst bullpen in baseball one of the worst defensive teams so how do they improve that right the bullpen looks okay so far like you know a lot of projections have them
Being an average Bullpen as opposed to being one of the worst so there should be some improvement there but I don’t see how they’re getting significantly better defensively so you know when you stack that up against a team like the Brewers who have significant edges against them in terms of their Bullpen
And defensively then their offense is going to have to hit and it’s going to have to hit a lot for them to you know reach this potential so like sh they’re like they’re the public darling you know they were last year when they when they uh they popped at the beginning of the
Season and everybody you know jumped on them to to win the division and make the playoffs and you know generally they have the potential to do that but you know you’re also relying on that rotation from a lot of guys like Andrew abbit and hunter green having bounceback incredible Seasons so there’s just
There’s an extremely high ceiling with this Red’s team but the floor is also pretty low of what could happen so the range of of outcomes is just too much for me to actually bet anything with them so like Sean like the only you know divisional bet that I’ve made is is the
Brewers to win the division um and they’re cons Reds are consistently a bad defensive team I mean they were 28th in defensive run saved last year go back to 2022 they were 26th I can keep going back but I guarantee you they’re bottom five every season or bottom bottom eight 25th and
2021 uh 2020 they were actually closer to League average So and I’ve I’ve shown in the past I’ve done articles on defense and correlation between defense and win totals teams who are bad defensively tend to go under their win totals and the Reds I think
Five out of the past seven years six out of the past seven years they’ve been a bottom five team for defensive run save uh I don’t as BJ said I I don’t necessarily see it improving in that roster maybe you know slightly maybe they can push closer to Le average but I
Don’t think TJ Fredo is an actual center fielder um they have a infielders that’s the one thing we didn’t talk about they they haven’t optimized this roster yet and they have too many infielders they signed Jer candelario they don’t have quite enough pitching their Outfield depth could be improved so expect the
Reds to make a move at some point I’m surprised they haven’t yet surprised they didn’t do something over the offseason but they need to reconfigure this roster and that that lends itself too to being more interested in betting them to make the playoffs or something
As the season goes along if they make a trade and get you know a better outfielder for Jonathan India or if they trade India and get you know a better reliever for their Bullpen little bit more interested in Cincinnati uh oh one last thing to mention too Alexis Diaz
Was awful had him on my fantasy team so I was aware he was awful in the second half I think he was injured probably and hiding it uh but if Alexis Diaz isn’t healthy he’s supposed to be their best relever so where does that leave that Bullpen run prevention comes down to
Bullpen and defense largely like who are you bringing in your Bullpen for when your starters in trouble typically trying to get out of a jam the Brewers as a said have Elite relievers you know backend relievers they can bring in in the fifth inning to get out of a tight
Spot the Reds do not have that they don’t have those middle reliever guys they may not even have back on guys either if only Ellie could run on his own defense that would be ideal let’s go to the Pirates these Pittsburgh Pirates their preseason win total 74 and a half
Their highest win total coming into a year since 2018 uh O’Neal Cruz in the middle of that lineup uh jumps out but this team’s a and on a nightly basis there are spots the Pirates are a spot team where are we at season longwise on the Pirates are
They uh is this high is this deserving this win total being their highest in almost more than a half decade now I think it is but you know it really depends how aggressive they are with their prospects and Paul skes they’re going to start skin in the miners how
Many bullets do you want to waste for him in the minor leagues do Paul really need to develop further what is he going to gain from throwing triple digit Heat by AAA and double A hitters this really not not much to learn there you just wanted to lay the service clock so that
He’s part of your next competitive team for as long as possible but Paul SK Quinn prer should both be in their rotation at some point by the end of the season and when you have a top three with skines and prer and Mitch Keller it’s actually kind of fun you know it
Pushes Keller Down closer to that number three starter that he projects as than an ace where he’s having to carry this team but happy to see Keller get extended get paid uh BJ’s Iowa boy getting his money but yes yeah re back quite a lot has clearly made
Improvements and I’m glad to see the Pirates lock him down and try to make him part of this core that they’re building uh I’m a big Brian Reynolds guy so I like that they signed him as well oal Cruz has looked pretty good in Spring hopefully he can bounce back off
Of that Offa injury last year and I feel like relative to Ellie he’s like four years older than Ellie so it’s fair that he doesn’t get nearly as much of the hype but the onfield skills the size there’s still a ton of fun there and I love watching O’Neal Cruz play happy to
See him back this year uh Jack swinsky a guy who’s very toolsy too good defense out in center field but also walks a lot has really good power metrics so I think Jack swinsky could potentially break out at some point after a sophomore slump uh Henry Davis
Gonna get a lot of time catching behind the plate former number one overall pick don’t necessarily love the defense but this is a kid with a ton of power and I think he could end up if catching doesn’t work I think he could end up in
A corner Outfield spot for them too so they have these young guys this young core that they’re building cab Brien Hayes had a great second half I think I think he’s going to get better I like him for Fantasy this this year there’s some pieces on this team but it’s still
Not complete there’s still guys that got to cycle out you know they still have cut in there as the DH uh I don’t I don’t see a playoff run for this team in 2024 I don’t see a wild guard progression I think maybe 2025 is when they start pushing a little
Bit harder but there’s still just not enough top end on this Talent top end Talent on this team or even top end prospects who are close enough to the big leagues to get me really decided that they’re going to make a leap I think they can continue to get a little
Bit better and not be one of the worst teams in baseball but I don’t really see them you know making a play off out of the next two years either unless they add some significant pieces so it’s a pass for beond the Pirates but as as you
Said Brandon I think there’s going to be nights where you want to bet this team and I think when skin comes up it’s going to be really fun to bet on his starts not only in terms of the money line but the strikeout totals and
There’s going to be a lot of fun props for Paul stars and Cruz yeah having him back played in just nine games last year uh BJ the Mitch Keller you excited about Mitch Keller gonna watch just to bet this team in his 25 starts and call it a
Year with pirates or uh yeah no I um it’s yeah like Sean said there’s a lot of like really interesting pieces and young pieces with this Pirates team um but they’re just not ready to compete right now and uh if again like Sean said just really comes down to how long they
Hold Paul skes down in the miners like if he’s in this rotation like yeah it probably raises them up to a level of their current like win total like you know maybe it makes him a little more interesting but um in this jumbl division you know the bullpen is
Interesting they you know they signed Chapman uh they they K Bednar when you know the whole world thought they were just going to trade him at the deadline uh last year so the bullpen decent the lineup’s good just comes down to the starting rotation you know I like Mitch
Keller a lot he had a great season last year but the previous Seasons beyond that were not that great so um if he continues his progression yeah he’s going to be you know like Sean said you know second third end starter in this rotation but um if he regresses at all
And you look at the other guys they have in this rotation it’s uh it’s Bleak so that is where things go wrong for the Pirates if you if you’re wanting to pinpoint something on their season so no interest to taking the win total no interest in taking them to win this
Division but they will be an interesting team to bet on a nightly basis maybe we get some more uh what was that one series two years ago when they then they played they swept the Dodgers the Dodgers and all one over that was still like one of the greatest weeks of my uh
Baseball life so if we could do if we could do that again that’d be fun um but and that was in LA if I remember correctly that was in LA yeah I you know I think they took two or three at home as well they they were dominant against
The Dodgers that year yeah but uh yeah I I think the the the floor for this team is still really low like they could still really bottom out hard you know if Reynolds gets hurt Cruz isn’t coming back 100% off that injury there’s still like a worst team
In the league type of floor here but obviously the pieces the stars are starting to get there where they were in the past so it’s very schemes dependent and I’m excited to see schemes at the big leagues it’s very reminiscent of when Strasburg was drafted and came up was
Like you’re waiting the whole season for Strasburg to get the call uh believe he made his debut against the Pirates ironically um but yeah I’m really excited to see Paul skes I would not bet him though for an rookie of the year I don’t think he throws enough Innings and
As I’ve talked about with Yamamoto and shto managa I think it’s a very H High bar for him to clear against guys who should be pitching a full season so sorry to your your skin Rookie of the Year betters but I think he gets like
Six to eight starts in the minor and the Pirates kind of kill those chances a quick heads up the great state of North Carolina officially launched sports betting on Monday March 11th we are recording on the 12th so good for you Tar Hill State welcome to the show
Take advantage of the best sign up offers across every sports book you can find a link to every one of those offers in the description of this episode all the North Carolina offers all in one place just check out the link in the episode description as we conclude each
Of our division previews let’s go rapid fire I’ll let zero go first then BJ a win total you’re high on in this division stat leader or award bet or both and then a Best Bet and then we’ll get on out of here go ahead zerillo obviously favorite win total the Brewers
Over you could take that up to about I’d go to about 78 and a half I projected this at 82.9 there’s plenty of room though no matter the number you find I think I got 74 search for the best numberers always but you should be able
To find a 75 and a half out there uh favorite stat leader let’s see I’m gonna go with Devin Williams I I there’s correlation there but Devon Williams 17 and a half to one I like that down to about 15 to1 even 12 to1 to be your major league saves leader this
Season just based on the projections him having full control of the role and how I project Milwaukee relative to the market certainly like Devin and then a WS bet uh let’s go with uh we’ll stick with the same team just go all Brewers Freddy Peralta sa young at 60 to1
Getting double the number that you got or can get on him to be the Major League strikeout leader I think is silly and he was amongst the strikeout leaders in all of baseball in the second half Health has always been the issue for Freddy if he can get to 170 Innings 180 Innings
He’ll be in the mix this season so hopefully the Brewers can manage him and get him to the finish line and you’re fair to say your best bet is the win total over yes best bet Brewers win total over 75 and a half might be my
Best bet of any future that I have out there I I really like this and the projection Market does as well so I I think there’s a very difficult argument to make not to bet this over BJ I think you’re going similar directions yep I also like the Brewers win total over um
But just for sake of uh changing making things different also go the Cardinals win total under you know like Sean said this rotation is old and can fall apart in a moment’s notice really don’t think the offense is going to improve drastically and quite frankly I I’m not
So sure they’re deserving of being like a significant favorite to actually win this division given they only won 71 games last year and the pieces they added don’t really add them that much significant Improvement to get to 84 85 wins um for you know what I’ll go I’ll
Change things up I’ll go uh season long total Justin steel under 175 and a half strikeouts uh it’s going to take a lot for him to actually get there a guy who only throws two pitches he got to 176 last year pitching at a sa young Pace
Pitching at you know 9.2 9.3 k for n rate but all the projection models have him regressing to around an 8.6 8.7 in that range so he’s going to have to throw a ton of innings he’s going to have to stay away from injuries he had a
Four-arm injury towards the end of last season so uh it’s going to be very very hard for him to actually reach 176 strikeouts again and for a best bet I’m going to go with the Cubs to miss the playoffs at even money if you look around at all the projection models I
Know zerillo has them below 40% fangraphs has them just a little bit over 40% picota has them under 40% so essentially around you know plus 150 in that range for the clubs to actually make the playoffs but right now they’re saying about even money to make the
Playoffs and what it comes down to is last season over the second half they were you know top six top seven offense with Bellinger the way that he was he was hitting the ball but like Sean already highlighted he overperformed drastically they did resign him and that’s wonderful and the Cubs offense is
Still going to be very good there are question marks when you get Beyond Justin steel and there’s rotation show excuse me sh IM manga is a very exciting piece you know at the World Baseball Classic he led everybody and Stuff Plus like Sean mentioned his fast ball is incredibly interesting 20 inches of
Vertical rise on it that’s great but when you’re pitching in C or excuse me in Wrigley Field and the wind is blowing out like that’s where the whole run problem can really happen so um he’s kind of a wild card in a sense of like he can be like really really good for
Them but there is also a world where he’s 30 years old and that maybe it doesn’t work out and suddenly the Cubs are just left with Justin steel their rotations because you know they tie not have a good season like we were saying before hopefully they take care of them
And put them in the appropriate places uh during the week when the uh the wind is not going to be a detriment to him right and then there’s also questions with their bullpens so you know it’s for for a projection standpoint like they’re very vastly overvalued in the betting
Market so um best bet probably the biggest Edge in terms of playoff to make or Miss is probably the Cubs right now to miss the playoffs so um like them miss the playoffs and even money okay very good that’ll do it for this episode of payoff pitch our NL Central betting
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