As they typically do on Tuesdays, Jay (@croucherJD) and Drew (@whale_capper) whip through a slew of questions from listeners and viewers, such as DeMar DeRozan’s price shrinking for Clutch Player of the Year, the Heat vs Magic to win the Southeast Division and how they’d handicap NBA MIP. They also welcome Denny Carter (@CDCarter13), who highlights Scottie Scheffler’s dominance and golfers to circle down the board at THE PLAYERS Championship this week. Jay and Drew then wrap up with their thoughts on Liverpool vs Man City to win the Premier League as well as Novak Djokovic, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, and Naomi Osaka in their respective draws at Indian Wells. #NBCSports #sportsbetting
Chapters:
(0:00) — Hello and welcome
(1:00) – NBA Awards + Futures: Clutch Player of the Year, Heat vs Magic to win the Southeast Division, Most Improved Player
(20:00) – THE PLAYERS Championship: Scottie Scheffler as the heavy favorite + Min Woo Lee, Keith Mitchell and other long shots
(33:45) – Premier League Champion: Liverpool and Man City
(42:30) – Indian Wells Open: Novak Djokovic as the men’s favorite, Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka in the women’s draw + general thoughts on betting tennis
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NBA Clutch, MIP, THE PLAYERS bets + Indian Wells update | Bet the Edge (3/12/24) | NBC Sports
https://www.youtube.com/nbcsports
All right welcome to bed the edge I’m Jay Croucher here with Drew dini uh with today we’re going to do AMA pod show uh we will talk about uh the NBA clutch and most improved player markets talk about Man City Liverpool repercussions in the Premier League uh off of that we’ll talk
Some tennis as well uh and our good friend Mr Denny Carter will stop by uh to talk about the PLAYERS Championship uh and at the end we’ll talk about Indian Welles but let’s start with question from uh at Dan Rosen Che Drew uh deard Rosen has come out of nowhere
To be plus 180 or shorter in the clutch Player of the Year ODS I didn’t notice fast enough to hedge my position on the injured Curry should I be scared uh Curry is minus 180 in the market um the r rozen to dance point
Plus 180 Shay is 10 to one uh and then I think realistically ends your list of candidates unless Damen Lillard comes from the absolute clouds at 25 to1 but I don’t think that’s going to happen uh what do you make of this Market yeah I think the big question kind of swirls
Around when do we expect Curry back uh you know and do you think that this ankle injury has a lingering uh impact on him Beyond just missing this couple games um I think obviously the Golden State Warriors also kind of where they land in the standings uh is is a big
Aspect here as well um but uh it’s very very tough for me to wrap my head around this award still we talked about this a couple weeks ago and I was like I just don’t you know there’s there’s so little bit of uh so little guidance on
How you ultimately decide who gets uh you know award like this uh that it’s uh you know it’s a ton of guess workor um the clutch teams that are playing the most minutes in the clutch are generating the most counting stats and that’s the Warriors and the Bulls like I
Does that mean they’re more clutch or they just happen to be in the clutch more like it’s it’s very very uh convoluted here and I think um you know to answer some of these questions number one I think Steph Curry uh will be back after missing this next game against the
Spurs um so I would expect his return on the 13th um that I think uh the ankle injury to me did not seem significant enough even though this is a repeat thing for him now uh does not seem significant enough that he’s going to miss a ton of games down the stretch
Just as far as maintenance goes because the Warriors can’t really afford to do that uh they can’t afford to throw the white flag up in any way of shape or form and expect uh you know to get into the playoff mix you know I think that
910 game in the west is going to be unbelievable whoever’s in it and uh presumably uh you know you don’t want to be on the road in that spot playing the likes of the you know the Lakers where you would be something like what a four
Four and a half Point dog uh so it’s uh it’s going to be uh you know I think incumbent upon Curry to play out the rest of this season uh regardless of what he’s dealing with physically um and at that point I think he’s still probably the right player do you have a
Dis disagreement here do you think d rozan uh there’s enough ground to make up here the Bulls really going to get an award for clutch such a ridiculous Market true point and cheering this Market on is just so insane like I’m praying that you know players that I’m
Not on that the opposing team doesn’t cut the score to within five so it enters into clutch territory in the last five minutes like it’s just completely ridiculous I do think that the key thing in terms of handicapping this award is uh and I I’m hearing this secondhand but
I’m going to take it as truth that apparently memo went around the NBA last year to voters about this award and one thing that highlighted was total clutch points um and for people who don’t know that is just the total points that you score in the last five minutes of a game
Where the score is within five points that is what Clutch time is defined as uh and in that department and that’s how one two three went in clutch player of the year last year which thearon Fox won but uh by that Stephen Curry is still out in front with 165 points in the
Clutch D rozan is second with 147 and then there was a massive drop off to Damen lard at 115 if Lillard wins this award is is an absolute travesty like his shooting splits in the clutch of 4432 96% from the line that’s good D but
The 32% from three is great has a good plus minus and they have a good record but he shouldn’t be anywhere near the discussion it should be Cario with the Rosen uh Shay I think is the third most likely player to win I don’t think he justifies his market price I understand
That he’s shooting 61% from the field in the clutch he has a great plus minus he’s probably not going to win MVP so I think people might want to vote for him he’s eighth in the league in clutch scoring he’s scored 98 points in the clutch and Curry’s at 165 like it would
Be I think pretty ridiculous for Shay to win when the counting stat Gap is that big now if he Bridges it it’ll be a discussion someone who’s very much on Curry and D rozan Shay is a little bit it’s not scary he’s just annoying like
It just kind want it to go away so I don’t have to think about it but I do think ultimately that Curry and D rozan because of their Gap are like 95% of this market in terms of those two against each other I think the market
Overcorrected a little bit on D rozan I think that one Curry still has a gap in the counting stats if you look at per game stuff as well like per clutch game such ridiculous Market Per clutch game Curry has the Gap as well where the Rosen played 56 minutes in the clutch
And Curry’s played 122 and Curry still has the lead for counting St Curry is shooting 54795 in the clutch and now he’s only got A plus three clutch plus minus and D rozan is plus 72 but I don’t know does clutch plus minus really matter for this
Award like Kobe white Kobe white has a much better plus minus in the clutch than the rozen like where does this factor into it like I think ultimately what is going to happen is um and you’ve seen like the viral tweets go around about how car laps the field with clutch
Field goals made clutch three-pointers made he had the shot the Epic shot against Phoenix to walk them off effectively I think so long as Curry comes back and it seems like he will um that he should still win the award but I thought like two weeks ago whenever we
Last talked about this I thought this was pretty close to D I no longer think it is done but I still think that Curry um I think he should be more like minus 200 and there is some minus 145 about in the market so uh that is my breakdown a clutch player
They just did get rid of this guys what okay fine keep it make more of these crazy stupid ones said the the you know don’t take this as betting advice the clutch the most clutch players the guys who have played the best in the best in the biggest
Games at the end of the game yic it’s yic second best guys Shay you know what that’s your one and two right now for the MVP why do you need another one of these so yeah I think I don’t know I I don’t think ultimately you know
The the they’re going to coales around yukich just because of how good he’s been in the very minimal clutch minutes he’s played uh but uh yeah okay I I think uh I think the the clo the closing of the Gap is D rozan scored a bunch of points in
The clutch to narrow the Gap because last time we talked about this it was didn’t seem even possible to close this Gap um he’s doing it based on volume of time spent in the clutch and as long as Curry is healthy and playing he’s still probably gonna win
Yes no I’m uh I am there with you I think the Rosen should be more in the plus 230 type of range uh and his price has gone shorter than that so I think that Curry is the bet at price and then Shay and a very lesser degree yic are
The two guys that I would monitor like if yic has a game where he scores 19 points in the clutch somehow an OT game or whatever then it might become a little bit interesting but we’re not there yet also there is going to be zero campaigning for niic to win clutch
Player of the Year absolutely zero all right question from uh at Paul minu Choy Magic versus heat for the division starting to see some plus money pop for the heat uh what do you make of this Market Drew uh the last we’re recording Monday afternoon so yesterday um the
Magic had a pretty bad loss to the Pacers at home but the heat had a much worse loss home to the RS oh man I the magic had a chance to put this thing away uh the Knicks game was a terrible spot for them like don’t get me wrong
Like I did not expect the magic to go and beat the uh the Knicks in that uh in that just brutal spot uh especially with no Suggs and with um uh you know with the Brunson coming back like that was not a fair fight um they need sugs back
Badly though my goodness gracious the guard play last couple oh my goodness it is uh it’s it’s not good uh and you know I think I’m I’m you know that of all the injuries of all the bets that I have going right now the one that
I’m the key the most keyed on is is Suggs and his ability to return uh and help Elevate this team because everything else breaks right for the magic for the rest of the season Jay would you be surprised to know that for the rest of the month of March they are
Only they only have one road game and that game is against the Toronto Raptors who are doing the exact same travel from Orlando to Toronto to play that game uh and so I think ultimately like this is as good a setup as you could possibly
Have uh to Coast this thing in uh and as long as they get Suggs back and he’s you know as effective a player as we saw um you know that at at times this season then I think we’re in good shape the the the murkiness around the sugs injury is
Tough though man questionable with a right thigh contusion um that’s not one that I have a ton of like you know I can’t I can’t point to a ton of examples of like yeah this is a two or three game thing like he should be back like I I
Really don’t understand what’s happening here and um and they need him desperately assuming he does come back though I make them meaningful favor over the heat um it’s kind of an interesting mix what’s going on right now in uh 4 through through six uh in the East um
One of these teams Nicks Pacers uh Magic and heat is going to be in the plan and I don’t think the heat necessarily want to find themselves in the seven uh if they magic and the heat continue to win uh then I do think there’s a chance that
Pacers fall down into the seven the way they’re playing basketball right now uh and in that World um you know maybe uh the heat aren’t taking the end of the season as seriously as the magic might uh so maybe that is just a little bit of
An X Factor tilting in favor of Orlando but again I’m talking my book a bit here I need them to get this one home I think the best price I got when I was really just convicted that the schedule imbalance was not being priced correctly
Uh I think I have magic at about plus 215 uh and I stopped betting it at plus 184 so um this will be a big one if I can get it and uh I need Suggs back in a big way yep indeed okay uh question from Stephen gett at the risk of being
Repetitive if two what resources can a casual tennis fan use to understand players strengths and weaknesses on different surfaces and two are maxian white false favorites for most improved player thanks uh let’s start with the most improved player one just because we’re talking basketball and then I’ll
Throw to you on tennis but uh we’ve talked about this a bit offline uh had a discussion uh in a thread with some other people about this I think this is the most mispriced Awards Market uh at the moment where I don’t think there is any reason for tyres Maxi to be favored
Over Kobe white for most improved player and I think a thing that I’ve gotten better at over the journey is kind of divorcing my own opinion about on uh a player winning on Merit or not versus just what are the voters going to vote for because that’s what we’re ultimately
Betting on and I just from everything that I’ve seen and heard from voters and also just voter types like guys who have had votes in the past or beat writers who are somewhat representative uh and are writing columns are on podcast where they’ve actually gone through a process
And thought this out everything that I’ve heard and seen is Shifting towards Kobe white I think you just take a step back and look at their cases Maxi has increased his scoring by 5.7 points per game and his efficiency has fallen off he’s now below League average shooting
Uh efficiency whereas Kobe white has increased his scoring by 10 points per game and he’s doing it on Career best efficiency and importantly uh with a higher true shooting percentage than Maxi so he’s a more efficient scorer I think the other thing too is that uh a
Big element of most improved player is like how surprising or unexpect unexpected the Improvement was I don’t think anyone is surprised that Maxi is doing this like this was this is like linear expected Improvement and with Kobe white like this guy and I just tweeted this out before but Kobe white
Was like Shake Milton before the season and I don’t think Kobe white is an amazing basketball player or anything but he’s an efficient decent basketball player who’s now like positive EPM like he’s having a really good year he’s leading the NBA in minutes and it’s just a more surprising development I think
He’s got a better story as well now Bulls started what five and 14 and they’re like I think what 25 and 20 since then thereabouts they’ve saved their season without LaVine um and Lonzo whereas Maxi like the team is a heavy favorite to fall into the play in seems
Like he’s losing steam so I don’t know why Maxi is more likely to win the award than white people also just have an issue with like 20 point per game scorers existing and then winning the award like the following year where John Morant was off ballot like 50 times um
Shay guilis Alexander was left off ballot a fair bit as well so I think that Kobe is g to be on almost every ballot I think that he’s gonna come close with tyres for first place and I think he’s going to you know handily beat him on seconds and thirds but what
Do you think have you seen kby WS plus minus in the clutch J he’s got he’s got a better plus minus than the rozen uh in the clutch he’s got a better plus minus than than yic better plus minus than Shay like we we in the
Right conversation here no uh no it’s a I’m I’m I’m about waving the white flag on Jaylen Willams being able to get there on kaminga being able to get there like the the problem the candidacy needed to really really catch fire out of the All-Star break and it didn’t uh
And the candidacy for Kobe white while it can be attacked I think is definitely stronger than Maxis as currently constituted uh and Philly looked very likely to me to be in the play in which I think is a problem for them uh and really a problem for any of those guys
Getting Awards um so yeah Philly the the kind of the cold water that uh is kind of on that franchise and the stink on that franchise in the in the wake of the embiid uh injury I think is sort of the ex Factor here that’s not being priced
Correctly so um yeah I think White Flag up is Kobe white time yep K wi time inde I think I could be wrong but I think he should be like minus 150 to win the award and he is like double that price in the market and Maxi I think yeah Maxi
Can definitely win um my re could be wrong on his appeal um but I’ve got in plus 185 and I’ve got the field the field is basically kaminga and Jay dub and I think they should each be like 40 to one um that type of range so wouldn’t
Put a line through them but think it’s um pretty dire on that front um the other part of stev question Drew what resources can a casual tennis fan use to understand players strengths and weaknesses on different Services okay um so love this question Stephen um and the best resource for anyone trying to
Understand anything about any tennis player is tennis abstract.com uh the great Jeff SackMan does a tremendous job of just curating just raw data for consumption um and uh if you go to tennis abstract.com he’s got uh kind of a non like there’s no opinion involved in creating an ELO rating and if you
Specifically look at only matches performed on a given surface hard clay of grass uh and compare those elos the raw elos to their total ELO you’ll get an immediate you know snapshot of okay player strength is much better on Clay than on Hardcore and then if you click
Through that a given player where you’re seeing that and you look at their they will tell you players will tell you through their history of tournaments they’re competing what they prefer right if a guy is eled to go to South America to play in uh you know Cordoba Argent
You know buenos saris and Rio instead of you know performing on you know uh going to the indoor you know hardcourt swing in am you know roddam uh Marse and and Leo you know I can’t remember what the third one is now but Monier um and it’s
A guy that’s from you know Europe you’re like well he’s specifically going out of his way to play clay like he’s telling you something um and I think then you know you can kind of look at specific splits uh and what you really want to kind of focus on is hold percentage and
Break percentage on a given surface um players that are servd dominant will prend to want to play on harder surfaces play better on faster surfaces how I say Harder Faster uh and you know and really uh you have to kind of look at tournaments and their Ace percentage uh
To tell you that there’s actually kind of two hard courts in reality there’s fast hard court and slow hard court um and slow hardcord is a little bit in between uh clay and uh and you know fast hardc obviously it’s it’s an intermediate type of Step um and uh I
Think ultimately if you’re a very strong server your you know your whole percentag is in you know will stand out at the top of the list on hardcourt uh and if you’re an exp a particularly good returner uh your your return win points one and your break percentage is going
To stand out and that’s mostly going to be on the slower hard courts in the clay so I think ultimately um you know kind of parsing the data through who is serving well who is breaking at a high percentage where are the players playing and then just looking at the raw ELO
Differences uh on you know on tennis abstract which again there’s there’s no opinion in that that is literally just who did you beat and what surface was it on and how good was that player and how good are you it’s just like chess so uh I think ultimately that’s kind of the
Key for anyone who’s looking to try to understand what’s going on with player strengths on Surface yep now that makesh sense to me tennis AB is a really good resource just for you wouldn’t take it as gospel in terms of definitely make a bet because SRA says so but it’s very
Good at making you ask the right questions um to evaluate what you are going to bet all right this week the best on the PGA tour take on TPC s grass for the 50th time for The Players Championship don’t miss the best golfers in the world Thursday through Sunday on
NBC golf channel and all around streaming on peacock Comcast business is a proud partner of The Players Championship in addition to optim and Morgan Stanley all right let’s bring in our good friend uh the the usually blazered man uh Denny Carter who is our Sans Blazer today sadly good to see you
Denny uh it was good to the three of us to catch up um in Las Vegas and share some Mexican beers um which was great but let’s talk about golf uh as you are a big golfman um let’s start with just how do you approach this tournament um how do you approach the
Course particularly yeah thanks for having me on guys I I really appreciate it uh I’m I’m a long time golf head and uh get really into the the metrics of it like with football I’ve never watched golf I just watch the dots go back and forth and uh and then look at the
Numbers afterwards so yeah I mean you know with this with this tournament uh it’s similar to how I approached the Arnold Palmer uh because that course was so challenging and and had such high rough you really want to put an emphasis on driving I’m putting this this novel
Thing putting the ball in the Fairway and I I find that when I can identify guys who can consistently do that uh last week it was Shane Lowry for instance uh Corey Connor some other guys who finished in the top 20 I think that you can identify values uh for for the
Week so for for the players I actually have uh three metrics to look at which is uh bogey avoidance uh Strokes gained on approach and then good drive percentage and that really that good drive percentage is not just hitting in the Fairway it’s it’s you know uh
Hitting it in the right part of the course it’s it’s not hitting it uh so far out that you have to chip out or or or hit it out of bounds or whatever so it is uh it’s a it’s a critical part of the formula for how to find guys who are
Putting it in play and then ball striking well enough to get to get you there I don’t really look too much at putting maybe that maybe that’s a little bit of a blind spot um but I do have some guys that that pop and all all
Three of these categories this week no I love it um bogey avoidance is a perfect proxy for what you’re describing which is course management right and that’s not something that’s accounted for in data golf for instance um and uh one of the things that is accounted for in data
Golf and this is a little bit of a softball here so I’m setting you up I guess all right uh the um the TPC sass is sort of the outlier when it comes to course history mattering right you can see a lot of examples of guys who have
Lit this place up and then the next year just stink out the joint and I guess do you take any type of kind of lessons from that in and either down weting course history at this and finding an edge or is it simply just uh kind of baked into the prices at this
Point I you know I do have some weight on that uh but but really not a lot I think you know in my in my you know golf process particularly with with DFS I would say uh I I tended last season to put a little too much emphasis on course
Fit uh I think that that that’s something that you can kind of get caught up in and you kind you can lose sight of recent form which I which I find to be the the really the thing to look at like and again it sounds simple just like putting the ball in their
Fairway seems good also which guys are playing well headed into this thing you know which guys over the last 12 or 16 or 20 rounds are playing well we’re talking about a a one month or two month span really drilling down on that um and
And you know so I’m I’m trying to get caught up too much with the course history yep no I think that is fair um k for your thoughts Denny on just how to approach um Scotty Sheffer uh as a a man myth um a betting proposition for our
Purposes where it seems like for lack of a better term that just kind of every golf tournament is kind of on his racket um so to speak where if he’s going to putt like he did at the Arnold Palmer then it feels like it’s kind of game
Over uh he is plus 550 in the market to win the players daol has him at 12.4% which Drew and I were talking early just kind of seems a bit low um but yeah how do you treat Sheffer and what do you think of his chances kind of relative to
Market uh the players right so the one thing that made tournaments interesting before the AR Arnold Palmer imitational was that Scotty sheffler couldn’t Putt and uh that’s the one thing that kept him from absolutely blowing away the rest of the field well you know like
Happy more he learned how to putt uh at at the at the AR Palmer and and they and he by the way he switched Putters uh he he he worked hard on his stance so there there were some some changes that he that Scotty Sheffer made headed into
That tournament that really paid off really paid dividends he was top five and strokes gained on the green uh at the Arnold Palmer uh it was the best putting performance he’s had guys since last year’s US Open and it’s not not even close I will say though that I I
Think that the his struggles on the green were a little bit overstated by me as well I you know I would be online complaining about it all the time but uh you know he’s gained Strokes on on the Green in three of his past six events so
I mean he’s not a hopeless putter okay like he’s not like you know like Luke list okay like guys who just like cannot get it going I know list recently had a hot streak but that that’s over and uh uh and so so Sheffer is is a good Putter
And when he’s putting well no one can compete with him you know the the you know the live stripping out so much talent out of out of the PGA tour now you have like post Prime Rory as as the main rival to Scotty I mean it’s it’s
Tough I really think Scotty could do something crazy this season and win six seven eight events and including this one I think he he should be the prohibitive favorite obviously yeah it’s amazing the Gap I it’s been a while since we’ve seen a gap between one and
Two this big cuz it felt like you know the the entire Golf World got better at the same time uh and now with as you’re saying the uh the defections to live it’s it is a huge gap between Sheffer and number two Xander Schley not not
Wouldn’t have pulled that out of my head if I didn’t have the I guess it has Rory at three yeah weird yeah second second choice at least for data golf whatever um okay so any are any uh kind of longer shots that you think kind of check the
Box of good course management guy uh recent form uh who you know maybe you know tickle like the top five top 10 Market if we think this is maybe a runaway for Scotty yeah you know right right so you’re you’re you you’ve already given the tournament to to which
Seems seems reasonable I mean really like truly he’s the Scotty sheffler is a you guys know this is a machine from te to Green the guy never waivers te to Green it just depends on if he can make a few putts and and he started by the
Way he started last week’s tournament by missing a three and a half foot birdie putt so so he he he didn’t start it well but he ended well um yeah I have I have a few guys who popped you remember the categories that I was looking at specifically for this tournament where
Bogey avoidance uh a good drive rates and then Strokes gained on approach over the past 16 rounds so it’s its recent form Keith Mitchell checks in at Fourth on good drive rate eighth on approach not so much on bogy avoidance but Keith Mitchell has been playing well uh and
Then you have uh Doug gim uh I don’t know if he’s very well known among uh golf fans but uh he he might you know yeah Jay’s Shing said absolutely not uh but but he he might be he might be this week uh he was he coming into this uh
Tournament the players as he’s sixth on approach sixth in ball striking and seventh in bogey avoidance uh really good player around the greens and on this course you really you do have to get up and down it was weird to watch the Arnold Palmer and remember oh yeah
These guys have to be able to get up and down sometimes because it’s not just bang bang bang you know 15 birdies in in over two rounds or whatever uh like we saw the previous week so uh th this course is tough Doug gim plays tough
Course as well I do I do like him a lot okay uh and also it looks like uh you have minwu Lee my fellow Australian there as well and uh Grayson Sig you’ve cornered the market on uh golfers at this tournament who have unnecessary random added letters in
Their last name Doug gim with an h and Grayson Sig with two G’s but uh what do you think of me W Lee and uh and Grayson yeah a yeah I’ll start with Grayson Sig um he was uh he’s second in bogey avoidance over the past 16 rounds so
Again that stretches about two months and uh he six on good drive rate now he’s he’s uh bottom half of this field uh in approach and you look across the Spectrum at like 125 to 150 bucket and then 150 to 175 it’s all not great uh
But again this is a a tournament where to in order to have a chance you have to be able to put it in the Fairway uh we saw guys last week and we’re going to see similar rough this week where uh they would they would have a 100 yard
Shot 100 yard shot to the green and they would have to chip out of the rough because they just couldn’t gouge it out of the rough onto the green uh I think that we’re going to see that again this week so a guy like Grayson Sig I I trust
This guy for whatever reason the stats say so to put the ball in the Fairway and give himself a chance and then minw Le you know he he did struggle he did strug Str last week and that that concerns me a little bit talking about
Recent form I don’t know if M Le has that recent form um but I I do I I do think that he’s a decent bet uh you know a top decent top 10 BET top 20 for sure he’s uh he tied for sixth in last year’s Players Championship uh and he’s gained
Strokes off the te in six straight events that’s mostly because he hits the ball really far crazy crazy far him and his sister M Le uh are are just bombers they’re just hitting it 30 yards past everyone uh but he’s not necessarily super accurate I do worry about him he
Also really doesn’t have like the the short game chops you know that a Sheffer has I mean no one does but uh you know so I do worry about him a little bit but I think he could be overlooked in a field like this mini of course the uh the
Australian Open champion of golf did you know that Jay he won the fortunet Australian PGA Championship I did actually say that when I was looking at M mole for a segment old golf channnel a couple weeks ago otherwise it wouldn’t have known he’s he’s been he’s been hot
In general uh in a yeah he finished top three in an Australian event and then top two at the cognizant classic so uh talk about form being on point I like that yeah and you know as producer Adam says M Le can hit his his high irons
Around 300 yards and I actually saw that this past week uh he took out um I think it was a a driving iron basically like a two iron and uh just crushed it and the ball flew like 200 180 yards I it was it was disgusting I mean it he really he
Truly is like uh like one of the longest guys you’ll ever see on on tour and this is a really long course so that does match up yep he uh is the pride of Perth in West Australia launches his drives like uh Shannon Hearn the Great West Coast Eagles Australian football player
Used to launch the ball off the halfback flank Denny um which 4.5 listeners will get the reference that is fine uh so everyone can follow Denny on Twitter CD Carter 13 Danny can you tell people what NFL content you’re working on at the moment oh man so much guys uh yeah free
Agency is in full swing that the the legal tampering period uh is uh is Raging at the moment and uh yeah we have all sorts of instant reaction videos and articles on roto world check that out we’re going to have uh updated news throughout the day into the evening into
Tomorrow morning folks we’re not sleeping till Thursday check it out okay very good Denny uh thank you for coming on we’ll have to have you back on to talk all things Kirk lanter and minwood Lee love that have a great day mate we’ll speak to you soon all right
Bye cheers all right spring training is here Drew so for those looking to get ahead on the upcoming MLB season grab your Ro World Baseball draft guide it’s loaded with Comprehensive positional rankings projections and player profiles to ensure your draft is a success visit nbcsports.com draft guu and use code
Baseball 24 to get 10 % off at checkouts all right before we get uh a little more tennis on the dock West Coast West Coast Eagles catching H 49 and a half points this weekend very very number yeah they won they won the premiership in 2018 they beat my beloved
Magpies by one kick um which required uh with about I want to say 83 seconds left Dom Sheed from the right pocket kicking a goal that in real time was probably paying like plus 750 that he was going to slot it uh and he went slotsville uh
And it was a very depressing day in the Crouch household but um but the Pi’s got it back uh last October Drew uh with a similar uplifting narrow Victory so it all evens out in the end you think they can stay within 50 of the of the port
Adelade power uh yeah I know my I would be on the Eagles at the plus 49 and a half before taking the minus some questions about Port um and the and their list coming off a year where they overachieved last year but um we should talk AFL at some point actually have a
Lot of strong AFL opinions maybe we can do an AMA where my I ask myself the questions about um whether the greater Western Sydney Giants are actually a juggernaut or a bit of a paper tiger paper giant if you will man they’re laying 45 and a half to the North
Melbourne kangaroos unbelievable yeah there’s some bad teams at the bottom it’s just kind of like there the Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards um the Kangas um and yeah the the much more West Coast Eagles all right um better teams than the kangaroos than the West Coast Eagles are Liverpool and Man
City Drew who played um there’s not there’s not much better than like an epic Premier League game towards the end of the season particularly one like this where you know sometimes the the games of kg like the Man City Arsenal game earlier in the year could just kind of
Sucked but this one was awesome where it was back and forth it could have easily been five3 and the five probably should have been Liverpool um but uh got a question um in uh my DMs I’m not sure if the guy wants to be Nam but um it was
Basically with the Liverpool One all tie um are you still no on Liverpool to win the Premier League um City a plus 110 to win the title Liverpool plus 200 Arsenal Who currently occupy top spot plus 250 uh and Tottenham and Villa won’t be winning the Premier League but I think
The big matchup in this now is Man City uh play host to Arsenal on the 31st of March in the first matchup between those two teams um back in October Arsenal won one nil at home but that was city were missing a lot of players in that one
City will be heavy favorites to beat Arsenal at the end of March and now I mean Liverpool they they’ll want a draw in that match and if they get a draw there then they’re very live what I was shocked by just how dominant Liverpool were in the second half where like L
Diaz one-onone with the ER that the city if they do have a weakness is that they’re not that quick and that was really exposed against Newcastle um when they played um at Newcastle earlier in the season even though they pulled it out in the end and I mean this one they
Just they completely lost control of the game it was very strange to see the ostensibly the best team in Europe and a team that by the way closed like plus 105 on the three-way money line against Liverpool um to win and Liverpool like plus 240 I want to say and you got an
Idea of how shocking the game play was in that so yeah Liverpool plus 240 Man City Plus 105 on the three-way and then in the second half Liverpool flipp into favorite in the live market because they were so dominant and that was it without any red cards yes City lost Edison but
That shouldn’t be enough to flip that so pretty incredible match but I think that ultimately it was a point earned for City just because they stole it away and I think they still are the rightful favorite and I’m not sure Liverpool are going to get that kind of insane en
Energetic lift at anfield that they did like this team was like barely scraping out victories over relegation teams a couple weeks earlier so uh what do you make though of the market now Drew do you think um that City got out of jail and will ultimately get it in from here
Yeah City got out of jail big time that was wild that second half was incredible and you’re right uh there is nothing like a high quality uh premier league and especially because of where it falls on the sport on the calendar right yeah middle of March middle of the morning on
A Sunday like don’t mind having that at all as far as like high stakes competition going on to watch uh and it was it was quite a watch I thought in the first half that city was just going to run away with it and then yeah like
You said that the disparity was huge and honestly City’s tough one right now to nail um there’s there’s red flags all over the place with these guys speed is as you mentioned I don’t know that there is a bigger Delta among the elite teams when they have possession and when they
Don’t in terms of like quality of of play it looks like when they when they are you know without possession um uh it’s really really tough to see how uh this team is going to get it done sometimes and then with possession it’s just like oh well they they’re they’re
An Unstoppable force and um yeah I’m I’m struggling to come up with a fair for them right now in a lot of these markets and uh that said I think the fact that you can get them at plus money and and they’ve largely avoided what would have
Been the disaster uh of uh you know kind of taking a loss to Liverpool at this stage in the in the uh in the in the um uh calendar would have been uh would have been tough to overcome so yeah I think uh it’s cities to lose and but
That said um I’m very very intrigued to see what this next Champions uh League draw where that slots them uh because the wrong draw here and they could be uh they could be in a little bit of trouble I’m playing defense on my um earling Holland top scorer in the UCL still um
And uh mbappe getting two as PSG lock in another round is a little concerning and uh this is going to be an interesting sweat now yeah I’m not too worried about mbappe I’ve watched an ungodly amount of PSG of late um because I have these ridiculous bets on St breast W to finish
Top four in League R and I need PSG to be knocking off that the teams around them and they just really keep on making a meal of it uh they can’t be at anyone at the moment just kind of kings of the aimless draw um currently PSG but think
You’ll probably be right there City would be my bet at current prices I just think that that they they’re kind of how they perceived right now is probably less than what they are just because they’ve always performed I think poorly at anfield relative to expectations just
A really hard place to play this is Yogen klopp’s last game at anfield against pep um you know more than likely and it I think there was a huge lift out of that and city was rattled like teams get rattled sometimes and they really seemed like they were rattled and then
Pep took off uh de bruyer and Alvarez brought on kovic and doku they seem to get a little bit more control uh and they probably saved the title um by just hanging on those last 20 25 minutes so really should have been a penalty um when doku what he kicked Al Alexis
Mallister in the chest so you can’t put your studs up in the Box um Jeremy but got away with it all right before we get out of here uh last question from the AMA uh iore Tri 7 how did you get into betting tennis Drew and talk some Indian Wells
Yeah so um uh I needed the kind of the step the key step in in my kind of progression as a player uh was realizing that um I got to the end of a football season where I had done very well but I just didn’t have much to show for it and
I was like what the heck happened I need to take a little bit more accountability here do a little bit of auditing uh and you know kind of realized even though I was betting NFL with with an edge I had just this leak of college football in
Prime time uh you know big big time college football games Big Time college basketball tournaments in November and I was like you know what like I’m spending 90% of my week handicapping the NFL and 10% donking it off with you know similar stakes in into these sports that I’m
Just not treating as seriously and I need to you know close that that Gap so uh focused specifically on NFL when you know when the NFL was live um but then that had a problem of well after the NFL is over what do you do and it just so
Happens that the handshake between tennis and the NFL is perfect in terms of calendar uh the you know the Australian Open uh has you know it happens right as NFL is winding down in the playoffs uh and then you carry through and you basically have daily act daily uh matches throughout the entire
Uh NFL offseason ending with the US Open which ends on the first NFL weekend of the season so it’s like a a perfect handshake in terms of coming up with the handicap uh compliment to the NFL uh with the yearly calendar uh and so I was like okay well I’ll take this more
Seriously and so I started searching around for data uh you go to like the ATP website and you go to the data or like the you know the stats tab on the ATP website and it’s literally like ELO Carlovich most aces all time it’s like well this is not useful whatsoever and
Like you poke around enough on like the high-profile websites and you’re just like man there’s no like actually usable data here to come up with fair prices and then you st some ten abstract and you’re like oh wow well here’s a just a repository that’s bigger than I ever
Could have dreamed I poke around a little bit you find historic odds and you’re like okay now we’re cooking with gas uh and just the process of like how difficult it was to get the you know the underlying data needed to build any type of model made it very appealing like oh
Man this is if this this hard for red toine this stuff at all then uh you know there’s got to be a better way to to actualize it and so that was kind of the The Arc of of finding tennis as a perfect compl to the NFL and I think
It’s going to be one of the higher growing it’ll be it’s second second or third highest handle worldwide after uh soccer and Cricket so it’s not you know it’s not a a small Market whatsoever and it’s pretty efficient and uh you know you learn that the hard way as you kind
Of go up handicapping tennis but um uh I absolutely love the volume you can get down I love the mono Mano you know W you know woman voman only two people involved in a singles match uh and uh you know kind of fleshing out edges is
Extremely fun uh Indian Wells has been a joy so far like really really fun tennis has been played despite the fact that Elena Racha withdrew before the tournament even started that’s a problem uh and uh Nadal withdrew before the tournament started that was a bummer uh very very
Was very interested to see uh if he could carry over some of the form we saw in the exhibitions he played into uh this tournament because I thought he was relatively live to win if he was playing that well um and uh it’s been you know
Somewhat um upset free so far on the men’s side so we’re going to have some incredible matches in uh in week two uh Yanik CER has looked dominant ALR has looked a little wobbly uh jokovic looks a little La Fair uh and Medvedev seems to have put some of the um kind of
Mental baggage of the loss of the Australian Open behind him so you have you have some uh Elite men’s players playing well right now and I think that’s going to uh create a really fun second week uh and then the women’s side it looks very much like we are headed
For a Clash of The Titans with the two best players in the world in the final here between EGA and sabalenka uh sabalenka is not performing especially impressively so far but it hasn’t mattered because she has a very very soft draw um I don’t think realistically she’s going to probably drop more than
One set between now and when she gets to the final and plays ea uh and I think the conditions slightly favor EA in terms of just you know Court speed and uh some of the X Factor stuff so I think EA is still the BET to win uh at price
And I think ultimately uh the men’s side is going to be just Superior entertainment for the rest of this week yep no that makes sense to me I think I’ve gotten some messages Lately from people about like wanting to get into betting tennis and I would say that uh
And ke for your thoughts but if you’re wanting to like watch one player on the men’s or women’s side at the moment in terms of from a betting angle and that player being variant just kind of wanting to get eyes on them how they’re playing I think that player probably has
To be Naomi Osaka because she is the player who could be like right now she’s I think she some places still she might be like north of 20 to one the wi the US Open I think there are worlds where she’s like five or six to one um if she
You know goes on um the right trajectory I think there’s been pretty positive signs there um one thing you said before we get out of here about you know the efficiency of tennis markets um and being able to get big bets down um and certainly you know you’re right it’s
Much easier to do that than betting on Kobe white most improved player but I was surprised when I started betting tennis a bit more um which was probably two three years ago um and I was surprised by even like Grand Slams it’s not like like even on Bend accounts in
The US like you can get on to win like 50 60 Grand on NFL lines in totals um day of game pretty easily like places like Pinnacle aren’t taking those type of limits on tennis head-to-heads and stuff I was surprised Uris that sometimes the limits are only like 15
20K um which for professionals betting is you know not nearly the size of what you could get down on Man City Liverpool or um you know any NFL game basically and off of that I was shocked by because I just always thought before I really looked into it that H you know Grand
Slam money lines is super efficient markets but then I’d have people like you know yourself and and one other um you know professional betting friend talk to a lot about being like uh yeah the Wimbledon semi-final between Elena reaker and Simona halip is completely wrong reaka is plus 270 and she should
Be plus 145 like what and my natural sense was like that has to be wrong these guys are um just off their heads but then uh and you know individual results whatever back and a won that in straight sets um but like how efficient do you think the market actually is and
What are the forces in terms of liquidity uh in forming that efficiency Bram yeah I think um your points are completely correct pre-match betting is not as bigest it’s not you can’t take as big a swing um but that also said uh I think the Inplay volume can get
Astronomical sure particularly in uh some of the exchanges um like the jokovic feder final at Wimbledon 2019 I think set the alltime high it probably got broken since then but at the time it was alltime high and was something like what like 20 it was several it was like
I think approaching like 100 million matched worldwide on BET fair in like in and it’s like ah oh like that’s crazy and so I think a lot of um you know a lot of folks who have an appetite to really bet tennis professionally they end up trading the you know trading live
Uh and uh you know that stuff is uh I think um you know it’s a job you you you need and honestly like tennis for someone getting get into it in my opinion um it’s kind of 5050 between the likes of the NFL and the NBA I think the
NFL there are plenty of people that can succeed without having any type of model without any type of data Maybe or maybe like 10% Like You know you know surface level power ratings for teams but they have like you know qualitative layers that you can put on uh matchups in a
Given week or mental model stuff that you know that that helps you find an in the NFL whereas NBA is the exact other end of the spectrum it’s almost entirely in my opinion data crunch like there’s very little excuse me that I think you can get qualitatively uh to like layer
On to really really you know help find an edge in the NBA outside of a few kind of you know classical examples like breast and stuff um but the um tennis is 5050 where you need an underpinning that’s numerical you need to have some you know fair for what the you know what
The money line price ought to be uh and uh you know I think you have to have some also watching because there are things that just can’t be priced in uh that you can see in a particular matchup in terms of hey this guy’s got this you know serve solved this got this
Tactic solved this guy doesn’t have this solved this player is carrying an injury and no one’s talking about it like those types of of qualitative stuff in tennis can be kind of huge edges at at times uh and you know the example you gave of halop versus you know raka like
In late stage slams there’s massive volume pre worldwide and it’s not sharp uh in a lot of these matches and I think um uh the kind of anchoring of you know this happens in the NBA anchoring of like previous success that Simona had halop had had at Wimbleton was just
Distorting the entire picture like there were four women left in at that time halp was the only one who had ever went Wimbleton so she was an automatic surcharge plus you know 25% win probability in every Market you looked at and it’s like this isn’t right she’s
Not playing that well like she had a lucky draw to get here raka is playing much better right now onor was playing much better so you know there that that type of stuff definitely happens in uh at the Grand Slam level and um on the women’s side in particular because it’s
Best of three uh attaching huge kind of past success is just wildly inappropriate so um yeah I I uh I would say that uh you know it’s a good kind of mid-stakes attack you know place to attack if you’re into the you know if you’re a professional player um and uh
If you’re a large St professional player you’re probably looking to try to get involved in play uh trading wise because that’s because this it’s the perfect sport for that the swings in a given match can be just so volatile the volatility is just King in tennis and um
You know if you’re able to dedicate your time to building a model to capture it and then you know actually putting the time watching then I think that’s probably a hugely successful in debt for a lot of people who take this professionally yep no I agree 100% I
Think tennis is um for me by far the most interesting live betting live trading sport because to your point like in theory it should be really easy to model because you have this very kind of controlled environment isn’t the right word but it’s like you know there’s only
Two players uh and you should be like all right well if this guy or this girl closed this price and this is the state of play currently that should be this price you simulated out but it doesn’t work like that because like there are momentum factors that go into models
That change prices and also like the watching thing there were massive rots on the alcaraz jovic matchup in the French Open where it’s like oh alarz his body doesn’t work anymore like yeah he’s still favored favor to hold serve he’s no chance he’s just done he’s completely
Done and I’ll never forget the US Open final last year jovic meddev jovic looked like he was looked like he was physically kind of melting and I think jovic I want to say closed like a minus 22 five favorite in the final and he won
The first set 63 second set goes to a tie break and medev is up two nothing in the tie break jovic is a setup and it’s a tie break it’s two nothing and meddev is favorite to win the match and it’s like what what the hell is going on like
This is a very subjective adjustment sure enough jovic comes back wins in straight sets and um and that’s something where like you just have to have eyes on that because you cannot be making informed decisions unless you’re watching the match and when that kind of stuff is going into pricing where you
Can get down to win tens of thousands of dollars um that is makes it a very fascinating market and uh and a vulnerable one I think so definitely definitely a good one to get into for anyone who’s just looking to explore uh a new space yeah and honestly like if
NFL season ends and you think you’re going to find an edge bet in college basketball and you never run a number to that point in the season I got bad news for you you’re not yeah if you don’t if you don’t already have the infrastructure built to run player level
Numbers for the NBA you’re not going to figure it out on February 25th sorry yeah exactly it’s it’s also like there’s only there’s only so many players there’s no different conferences and stuff there’s only so many surfaces uh it’s a bit more I think yeah solvable
Than um trying to go into um yeah figuring out lower level college basketball or whatever all right we are done don’t forget to check out nbcsports.com for more information to help you with your wages thanks for those watching on the NBC Sports YouTube channel if you’re listening to us in
Podcast form don’t forget to rate and subscribe and also a reminder to find all your favorite NBC Sports shows on Amazon music just head to amazon.com MBC Sports thanks to everyone who shot through questions for the AMA uh we have lots left over we’ll get to them uh next
Week uh we might tackle some before then too but from Jay Croucher and Drew dini we’ll see you soon
