Are the Oklahoma City too young to win an NBA title? Do they need more experience? This detailed film breakdown and scouting report explores OKC’s dominant regular season, their offensive versatility, coaching and more in comparison with other good young teams in NBA history and the youngest NBA title contenders of the 3–point era.
**All ages in the video are weighted by minutes played, based on player ages on February 1st of a given year.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder currently have the second best record in the NBA and the second best point differential in the NBA but are they too young to win an NBA championship despite their regular season dominance Betty markets considered the Thunder less likely to win than the Celtics Nuggets Clippers
Bucks Suns Timberwolf 76ers and even the New York Knicks this is probably because they haven’t made the playoffs since 2020 and their starters have less playoff experience combined than Jason Tatum racked up in his rookie season and yet at the same time 85% of teams with OKC’s point differential have reached
The Conference Finals so is all that youth and inexperience really insurmountable before we answer that let’s understand just how good OKC’s been they’ve gone 25 and N in the last 2 months or so defe beating the Nuggets twice in Denver the Timberwolves twice the Clippers in a blowout and the
Celtics in their December meeting against Minnesota Rudy goar had a hard time chasing Chad hren out on the perimeter for instance on this play chat just initiates the pick and roll Rudy naturally sags under the screen that opens the shot but it’s actually a given go and another dunk so the Wolves went
To a Zone in the second half to keep Rudy closer to the basket but the whole problem is that Chad’s a 40% three-point shooter right now so on backtack possessions the Thunder just went to a little flare screen gobear wants to stay home and that stretches The Zone too
Thin in a recent video for the NBA we talked about how OKC uses flare screens in transition to help spring Shay gilas Alexander in isolation and here it is against the Timberwolves Twin Towers where where chat’s threat to drive scrambles up the defense for a second opening Jaylen Williams who’s shooting
45% from three and this is a really well- coached team Josh Kidd is a weak shooter so defenses will leave him to help on Shay but then he just cuts into the space himself and this works with Chad too he has a ton of room to attack
His man here Mike Connelly realizes that and slides down to help so again giddy just back Cuts him and that’s an easy pass and score the next time they met in January the Wolves put goar on giddy so he could roam off him and clog the paint and this
Downgraded OKC’s shot quality because goar could at least help on penetrators around the hoop and sometimes take away giddy’s cuts on plays like this or he could bother his shot on some of those attempts around the basket this is the theory of how teams might might defend SGA and the thunder
In the postseason shrinking the floor like we’ve seen in Prior playoff matchups and daring giddy to shoot a bunch of low percentage threes but then the Thunder can swap in another 40% three-point shooter like Isaiah Joe and suddenly an opposing Center has nowhere to hide against five Shooters and you
Can see aita zubot struggling to stay with a guard deep into this possession a minute later zubac is trying to avoid coming out onto hren so Paul George takes him instead but blows a tire and then chat can attack and make plays himself so there are Playmakers
Everywhere on this trip they bring zoo into pick and roll chat’s gravity freaks out both Defenders and now it’s jdub’s turn for some no look dime dropping Williams is a great second star because he can initiate the offense in the half court he can also push the pace when
Needed in transition and create that way that’s ridiculous and so on one hand he’s sort of an alternate point guard when needed but he can also just create his own offense and make difficult shots himself against the Knicks he completely took over the game in the fourth quarter
With his shot making and he actually leads the thunder in fourth quarter scoring ranking 12th in the NBA in points per fourth on a scorching 68% % true shooting and because he’s such a good outside shooter he can play off the ball and finish what other players
Started or he can just use his length and slippery penetration to attack the rim himself he’s versatile on the other end too because he can guard someone like Anthony Edwards in isolation that was called a foul but it’s an incredible block for my money and he can also guard
A bigger body like Carl Anthony towns jamming up this Hawk cut then recovering back inside and helping on the rle man and this possession basically goes nowhere because of that physicality and activity even though he’s 22 he reads the game like a veteran spotting this lob and getting up to steal it and
Because he’s so long you’ll see vertical plays like this switching off towns onto goar and defending the lob like a big man regardless of age these are championship level defensive plays Michael jording this block from behind before snapping off a perfect outlet to a streaking Joe and OKC forces more
Turnovers than any other team in the league so part of their success is turning defense into offense after a stop the Thunder have the third most efficient offense in the NBA after a stop so the outcome is a league leading 20 points per game off turnovers and
They play small all around hren but they make up for it with their agility and a ton of speed and that speed means they can get out in transition and punish slower teams like this they also make up for that size with length so SGA and Jaylen Williams can disrupt passing
Lanes and they even have an elite rim protector in homr waiting at the basket and then Chad himself is fast enough to outrun other big men down the floor in transition home is only a 21-year-old rookie but he already looks like a big time player and he plays with an
Awareness and command that is often reserved for older stars look at his patience here on this play staying down against kawii Leonard only to recover and block zubot and on other plays you’ll see sage like awareness switching onto goar in the post and then spotting the breakdown early to slam on the
Brakes and then incredible verticality to stop and the rim and if that’s not enough he hustles to the corner but stays down on the closeout and that is veteran likee discipline so can Talent Poise and good coaching overcome all this youth last year nuggets were one of the youngest
Title winners of the three-point ERA with an average age of 27 A2 on February 1st of the season when the Warriors broke through in 2015 they were just under 27 with three starters under 25 the Thunder average age is just over 24 with a whopping six rotation players under the age of
25 they’d likely pass the 77 Trailblazers as the youngest NBA champ in league history back when future MVP Bill Walton led a team with five rotation guys who were also under 25 heck only one other team in the three-point era has even made the finals with an average age around 25 and that
Was way back in 1981 when the 40 and 42 Rockets defeated the 40 and 42 Kansas City Kings before losing to the Celtics in the NBA Finals it’s actually really rare for any young team to be this good in the regular season the 2022 Memphis Grizzlies were an under 25 Squad that
Outscored opponents by at least five points per game and the other team to do that this century was the 2011 Thunder and that OKC team is probably the closest comparison to this one they had a big three that was even younger with their four top players aged 22 or below
And they made it all the way to the Conference Finals in a way this is actually good news for the Thunder because it means that so few young teams have ever been in this position meaning even though it’s rarely happened the odds of it happening when you’re this
Good might not be super low OKC is currently top five in offense and defense and they have the best point differential in the league against top 10 teams so they certainly have the footprint of a championship level Squad and look I’m not saying their inexperience and youth doesn’t hurt them
We have no idea if defenses will chip away at Shay’s Effectiveness and what kind of playoff moves Mark dagel has in his bag but if a really young team is going to break convention and make the finals or even win at all this group of versatile stars that plays well beyond
Their Years is as good of a candidate as any you can check out that Shay video on the NBA YouTube channel or the NBA app otherwise you can support this channel directly at patreon.com thinking bask we have a stats leaderboard that updates regularly throughout the season for
Teams and players along with the Discord community and more let me know down below if you think we’ll ever see a super young title team break through again otherwise thanks as always for watching and I hope you are having a great day
29 Comments
I hope not
“Even the knicks”??? I’m sorry but a healthy knicks team is ecf-bound
if you are good enough, you are old enough…
If the 2011 Thunder could do it, I don’t see why not. They just need to prove it in the Playoffs just like that Thunder team nearly did
I dont think they can just think about how kawhi plays in playoffs lol
They cant but not necessarily because of youth. They're just not at the level of the nuggets or celtics. Although ofc in a few years as they get better they could win.
It's in theory possible just really really hard and hasn't been done before. The closest a young team got was the Orlando Magic in 1995. Nick Anderson choking on free throws destroyed them mentally though and they weren't the same after game 1 and got swept. Edit: Didn't realize the 77 Blazers had that young of an average age. TIL.
Really hoping Chet steps up in the post season; him and SGA are going to be a deadly core moving forward.
Wemby is ramping up to steam like an old-school train laboring up a long, steep hill before coasting for the rest of his career assuming he stays healthy.
This is like the 7'+ edition of CarmeloVLebron; but with a higher ceiling.
2 tacos for $0.99
Nothing matters if they don't bench Giddey
Love the video. Love the historical comps. I personally think they need at least 3 competitive series of playoff experience to win the title. So I’m still betting on the Clippers or Celtics to win it all this year. But if OKC can win even just 2 games in the second round this year, if all else is equal, they’d be my pick for the title next year.
That OKC Team back then is still the biggest What If in NBA HISTORY..
As a Thunder fan, I can say that a lot of us aren't concerned with whether they win it this year. They've already more than surpassed our expectations. Unlike most teams, we have several more years of this to look forward to.
Youth won't be the reason if they don't make it to wcf. It would be size and strength down low, and Josh Giddey inability to shoot consistently would hold them back most.
Yes they have serious talent
I think Timberwolves have a better formula for winning than OKC. They have the defense, they have the accuracy from the arc. Edwards can provide the midrange.
a young team can win a championship, its all a matter of their maturity.
like the 2012 OKC team with Durant, Westbrook, Harden, werent mature enough. Durant wasnt a leader, Russ took charge and took clutch shots when Durant should have been the guy. Harden was not a starter, he was coming off bench, and when he got to Finals, he folded.
With the OKC team now, you got SGA who is no doubt the leader of the team, everyone else is supporting him.
OKC is amazing but they should trade Josh Giddey and some picks for a good scorer because he’s not what they need right now. His minutes are dwindling by the day too. Markennan would be interesting.
This is why small market teams are talent farms for the Lakers, it's hard for them to keep players they draft, attract meaningful veterans and win in the window of that first or second contract. Young teams run it up during the season and then they need to go through years of failing in the playoffs to start figuring it out at that level.
Ain’t no way bro said the phrase “slippery penetration” 💀💀💀
yes but overrelying on dorth and giddy particularly their shot variance from deep to have reliable team offence cause we know SGA 30 is inevitable so is jdub 20 and chet 18 will be their achilles heel in the playoffs where coaches key in on matchups thats an nightmare unless both dorth and giddey shoot 40% in the series from 3
They can, but they're gonna need mental toughness.
There top 5 in both offense and defense, best 3 point shooting team in the league, it’s no fluke at this point
Great video. I don’t think they can win it all, but your 2011 thunder comp got me thinking that Sam Presti’s specialty is building teams that are way too good, way too fast for it to turn into extended championship runs 🥴
J-Dub always being a clown in the interviews 🤣
The stat about their starters having combined less playoff experience than rookie Jayson Tatum is nuts haha
Yes, but not this team.
Not true veterans with Championship pedigree on this team.
This OKC has the most data scientist out of any team. Are they playing moneyball?
I can see a little bit of dray within williams