Mexico Open at Vidanta BEST BETS & PICKS! | The Early Wedge

Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for The Mexico Open!

0:00 Intro
1:00 Genesis Invitational Reaction
5:10 Storylines for Mexico Open
9:00 DFS Picks
16:05 First Round Leader
19:00 Tournament Matchups
28:25 Finishing Positions
33:00 Winner
37:30 Longshots

ABOUT THE SHOW: Welcome to The Early Wedge! Your #1 destination for all of the bets bets and picks each week for the PGA Tour! Join Eric Cohen with CBS Sports Golf Writer Patrick McDonald and SportsLine expert and Early Edge host Sia Nejad to break down each tournament of the PGA Tour season through the Tour Championship , every Tuesday at 7pm EST!

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Welcome to the ear wedge presented by B MGM I am your host Eric Cohen otherwise known as EC last week was a tough one I thought I was gonna cash a 20 to one outright in Patrick Klay I was counting my money I was ready to come on this

Show despite owing Patrick McDonald 100 bucks from our Showdown I was gonna gloat and then Sunday happened and I have nothing and now we’re on to the Mexico open at Vidant so let’s bring in the stars of the show you know them you know they’re they’re great they’re the

Smartest guys in the business Patrick McDonald CBS Sports golf writer Cen NAD the counselor host of the early Edge and one of the best golf bets on the planet counselor I’ll start with you on this one so I had this can’t lay ticket and I

Also had zalot torus last week so I got offered about 60% of my ticket uh on Friday five-stroke League going to the weekend would you have taken it or do you let it ride yeah I mean I I typically let it ride in that circumstance and what I like to do is I

Mean 60% is not a bad number but I mean it’s it’s not it’s not close enough and what I like to do is probably like live bet hedge on Sunday with like one or two people at their internet this this was an interesting one though because down

The stretch obviously hidy came out of nowhere so you couldn’t even and Klay got off to kind of just a rough start so did Xander chofay that was my outright ticket so there wasn’t a lot of I don’t really consider any cash outs frankly until Saturday night Sunday and then

Depending on how much I have on it and what the payout is then I’ll at least consider it but usually I don’t cash out for an outright I’ll just live hedge it with you know one or two golfers down the stretch all right Patrick at what point did you actually think keki Matana

Had a chance to win this thing uh the put on 12 the 50F footer it’s one of those things where it’s like all right this is his day 12’s the toughest hole out there at Riviera and then he added on kind of a bonus there on 15 and once

He got to 15 he tied zot tus at that point and z still had to go through that stretch it was pretty much his but there’s no way going into before the back nine I know he started off birdie birdie birdie and that’s fine but you there’s no conceivable way that we’re

Betting Hideki Matsuyama earlier than the back nine on Sunday right considering all the other factors no it’s just one of those things it was a an alltime heater I mean people don’t shoot 30 on the back n at Riviera for a reason it’s very tough to do and Hideki

Monama just did it it’s one of those things I mean to begin the day he was as high has 150 at some books so you kind of just got to take it on your chin so I the other thing here is that you know usually when I’m trying to take a live

Bet whether it’s on a Thursday night or whether it’s on a Sunday morning I am I’m thinking about well who does he have to pass and so you know the heekim matama thing was so incredible not just because of what he shot which was amazing but like it was Xander and kle

And will alatus that he had he actually had to pass so you have to like just it’s all context every single time you’re trying to make a live bet from somebody deep back in the pack I mentioned I think on this show maybe last week when I hit Sam Burns at 80 to1

On Thursday night he was eight shots back but that was a field that that everybody that was ahead of him was basically like an average golfer if not below average in this case there’s no way you could have thought hideki’s like going to shoot that score but beyond

That that both Klay and Xander are just going to have very pedestrian rounds and that zalatoris isn’t going to stay hot there were so many things that had to happen not just with Hideki but but with like the superstars that were at the top yeah and the thing about golf betting go

Ahead Patrick I’m sorry EC just one more uh kind of knife in you for this Patrick hlay but he lost to matama over the last 20 holes by four 14 Strokes are you serious yeah he lost by 14 Strokes the last uh 20 holes I mean

Listen matama what he did that back nine as you said it’s a really I mean if if Klay shoots I guess the way to look at it if can’t like going into the weekend if you said he’s gonna shoot parar and and miss a playoff by a stroke you’re

I’d be like okay well I mean I get nobody saw Matsuyama doing that and there’s no point it wasn’t like hey I gotta jump on and bet matama a number like Luke list I understand he was started the round what a few back got off to a hot start I’m like okay well

Maybe I should have seen I should have S you know should have gotten in on that whatever I I did try to hedge with Xander uh as we as sea talked about like I thought he was the danger there at no point was Hideki the danger nonetheless

This one’s going to sting for me for a while I’m sure counselor you would have had an outright with with shley that one kind of hurts because he didn’t show up on Sunday either all right now we’re on to the Mexico open Patrick we’ll start with your storyline I think it’s very

Appropriate for this week uh yeah it’s obviously not a marquee week on the PGA tour not a lot of names going out there only one player inside the top 25 that is Tony F now but despite that despite people maybe taking the week off whatever it may be a lot on the line

When you come uh when it comes to this tournament still get major championship exemptions still get status into the Signature Events the Aon swing five uh in world ranking points as well so despite not a lot of big names pretty much any traveling down to Mexico it is

A big week for a lot of these lesser known players my storyline I guess I’ll go second here is what can we do what can the tour do to stop Fields like this or or to improve Fields like this like you you’re coming off uh a stretch here

Where you had Mark you signature event at Pebble Beach Phoenix Open which is a little bit of a let down there but still a decent field you had a signature event at the Genesis you have one uh in a couple weeks at the API and then the

Players what do you do for this one for for the Mexico open is it just the wrong place in the calendar but they have to do something because this isn’t it I mean this field you know for me my betting volume this week going way down now counselor I know you’re all about

Finding the value and this week I I think you’re you’re probably looking a little bit down the board to find that am I correct yeah you know it’s really interesting because I think when you see a field that has Tony fow at the top with very short odds and then it’s kind

Of everybody else I think the thought is okay well let’s pick a long shot and we’ve seen long shots win what every single tournament pretty much with all that said I do think there’s kind of like a sweet spot in this tournament like clearly there’s like the cream of

The crop right we’ve got Tony fena we’ve got Nikolai hoard Keith Mitchell some of those guys at the top Thomas dietre we’ll talk about some of those guys Taylor pendrith a popular guy but it’s that next range where I think we’re really live to see an outright and the

Range after that in in I guess the point I’m trying to make is I don’t know that a long shot is going to win this tournament in terms of like a 100 to one or even like a 90 to one which is where Hideki opened last week got down to 80

70 in some places but I think we’re looking at like a 25 to 55 to one shot somebody in that middle Zone and the reason is the drop off after you get to like the 60 to ones I think there’s a pretty big drop off from Tony feno to

The next tier and then it’s it’s that next tier of maybe 20 to 25 golfers that I think is going to win this thing because the drop off from there is pretty steep once you get to that 70 80 90 100 to one range so the long and

Short of it is I think we’re going to have a relative long shot here in that 25 to like 55 60 to1 range all right well that would be better than I guess the 100 to ones or 300 to ones that we’ve gotten this far at some point we

Got to see the chalk win and I thought we were you know towards the top of the the odds board and I thought we were going to see that at Riviera and then well let’s let’s not talk about it as you can tell and you know let me just

Say this too before we get into it Patrick McDonald took a hundred bucks from me and it really did you ever have to sweat really with Rory against Scotty I think that one seemed like uh pretty good bet on your part no I’ll be honest I wasn’t really paying attention uh too

Much to that one and I mean you picked on Scotty on a week where he lost Strokes on a approach and you still couldn’t get it done you see well to be honest wasn’t it like the beginning of round one I mean the Meltdown for Rory initially happened on the back

Nine back so he was he was kind of red hot prior to that it was looking like Rory was going to win that Showdown easily and then you know the Meltdown happened and then there was another meltdown after that yeah and then I I got close in the fourth round I’m like

Hey maybe I have a chance to steal this well you know what we’re going back to the well this week but let’s start with our DFS picks or your guys DFS picks I’m actually going to start with you counselor on this one because you’re fading a couple of guys that I really

Like this week based on course history why are you doing that well first of all I understand why you like them I I think the problem we’re talking about of course Brandon woo and Tony feno here’s the thing I mean we’re talking about DFS so I’m not even saying that like in the

Betting Market you should necessarily fade these two guys but it’s looking like Tony F now is going to be in that 35% to 40% range even if he’s 30 well 30% is is a different question but it’s looking like 35 to 40% ownership so if

You can get Tony F now on a on a bad putter week which is not very unusual lately and he ends up being in 40% of lineups and you don’t have him and and you took like Thomas dietry or Nikolai hoard granted those guys are popular too

But not nearly as popular as Tony F now as far as Brandon Woo is concerned again dfs’s Game Theory especially PGA DFS it’s more Game Theory than it is anything else so again I think Tony fow might win this tournament but I’m not willing to play him in DFS I’d like to

Stamp out 40% of the field if he has an average tournament Brandon wo a little bit of a different story I mean obviously we think he’s really good on courses like this we think he’s really good on paspalum and for the record two years ago when we first had Mexico open

At Vidant he was really good with the ball strike I mean really good and really good with the putter last year he actually lost on approach but because he was so good around the green and with the putter he ended up again having that top five finish so I just think we’re

Going to see regression as it pertains to this tournament he’s not coming in with tremendous ball striking or or tremendous anything for that matter and I understand he’s such a good course fit but again he’s another guy at 9100 that’s going to be really really popular

15 to 20% because of what we’re seeing with the recent history now it’s one thing if you want to play Tony Fe now because he’s kind of a star but Brandon woo we only have a two-year sample size one of those two years he literally lost

On approach but gained almost 12 or 13 Strokes with the short game I’m willing to just kind of fade the fact that he is like this you know paspalum genius and and and the ball striking is going to be there like it was two years ago it certainly wasn’t there last year so

Happy to fade two popular guys and I’m going to go with Keith Mitchell at 9900 I think he’s live to win this tournament but because he’s sandwiched among so many different guys that people like he’s just not going to get the ownership he’s not going to be over 20% he’ll get

Like 15 14% but he’s not going to be super popular again I mentioned Nikolai hoard I mentioned Thomas dri some of these Taylor pendrith is going to be really popular I love Taylor pendrith but in DFS I’m not so sure I love him because everybody loves him right again

Game theory so I like Keith Mitchell I like what he does off the te I like his driving distance around the green is that’s his main issue not going to be a problem here around the green play not really a big issue uh at the Mexico open

Michael Kim’s my next guy 8200 I think is tremendous value he’s not getting a ton of ownership he’s just to me he’s super consistent I think he’s a very safe play and he’s not again not super high owned so he does pretty much everything well like he’s gaining some

Distance off the te approach play has been good like the putter 8200 love the value there okay Norman I’m kind of going off the map here I don’t think anybody’s going to play Norman because a he’s 7600 so you don’t really see the value that you might see with let’s say

Sam Stevens again another guy I like at 7100 that a lot of people are going to play well nobody’s playing Norman and I actually think he’s a pretty good course fit here he can absolutely bombit he’s just got to get the approach play back going again he hasn’t been very good

Lately but again Vincent Norman on this type of course on this type of track I really like him as a very much a contrarian play in DFS very nice all right that’s solid with that one now when I look at Patrick’s fade and I listen when I see that price on a Milano

Gilo I’m like oh my gosh 11,100 what kind of tournament listen this field we know what it is I mean we you you talked about it in your storyline I mean it is what it is so I I guess I kind of understand it but also this is one of

Those tournaments against a weaker field that you would think you would pop no yeah no it’s really just I can’t go to bed tonight paying over $11,000 for drio the prince of pp follow them great course history I understand that but we’ve been paying what like seven for

Him these past this past month pretty much for them and I know we’re in an inflation inflationary environment right now and CPI numbers come in every month and some are good some are bad I can’t do it with the Argentinian I I just can’t so he’s a no-o for me if you want

To bet him outright be my guest and you know to see us point I almost went with three Kims in mind but Michael was just a little too expensive to get the sub 8,000 I do like the Michael Kim play I love the Vincent Norman play too winning

Upside for sure twice a winner over the last year so uh plenty of upside there I’m going with SH Kim great putter great around the greens plenty long irons I think made a turn there in Phoenix uh 7900 finished top 25 here last year so I

Like that play kind of the same deal with Matt Wallace I followed him for a little bit there in Scottdale just everywhere off the tea I mean if he if there was a c rce out there he pretty much found it uh but outside of that the

Rest of his game looked good he doesn’t have the course history to bank on but like see you said two years it’s gonna happen uh and then Chan Kim 6,500 I think he might win this golf tournament oh my gosh whoa fourth in total Strokes gained

Over the last six months couple wins on the corn fairy tour during that time starts on the PGA tour haven’t been great he played well at the American Express uh last start was the armor he missed the cut but he shot four over on the south course six under on the North

So kind of I think misleading a little bit can go super low uh given those cor fairy tour victories so 6,500 for Chan Kim I think is the bargain of the week yeah he must have his game must have elevated when he saw me at the driving

Range at greyhawk golf club uh in 2022 what can I say I did I did see him out there Believe It or Not uh and he has he has ascended since then so I do like that even though he is an ASU guy and that is anti everything that I stand for

Being in the University of Arizona Alum goate Lashley this week just want to point that out okay all right let’s move on to uh D or to first round leaders now I watched a video the other day of a guy who took his whole life savings and put

It on red on on roulette so and he won in Vegas I guess it worked out for him he won $130,000 and then you know everything in his life came together so maybe this is kind of like how it can work now for my golf betting if I just

Follow ca’s F frls like take your you know five golfers you know put my money down and maybe that’ll get me back my Patrick Klay could have would have should have W wins tell us who you have this week it’s really funny you say that because I I do a show sometimes called

The PGA draft cast and one of the bits we have on that show I give out my first round leaders but one of the bits we have on that show is I literally tell people to put their life savings on it but like I’m obviously joking right it’s

It’s like it’s literally it’s it’s a bit but what’s funny is a couple years ago and this is two years ago now when I hit six out of 12 tournaments first round leader like people were actually confused they they weren’t sure if it

Was a bit or not when I was like oh you got to put all your units on this so uh it’s it’s funny to mention that I haven’t hit a first round I’ve come really close I haven’t hit a first round leader yet so far but maybe maybe this

Week is the week I’ve got five here um I I think some of these are pretty obvious let me actually start with the second one which is Keith Mitchell at 40 to1 I already talked about him I don’t think I need to go through it again but I’ll say

This I think in this type of field Keith Keith Mitchell is not only alled to be first round leader but he’s live to win this whole tournament I really like and granted it’s a small sample size but the game is really starting to Trend when I

Look at weighted off the te when I look at his recent history uh specifically and the driving distance all of those things and by the way t17 at the farmers is nothing to sneeze at especially when you compare Fields so I think Keith Mitchell is really really interesting in

This tournament again I obviously I’m playing him in DFS as well Taylor pendrith really good course fit he’s going to be good off the te he’s going to be good with the long isons this is like a perfect course for him so at 40 to1 again his recent history his game is

Is really trending it really wasn’t there four five six months ago so Taylor pendrith at 40 to1 I really like Michael Kim again we already talked about he’s no stranger to sometimes getting off to a fast start even recently so I think 55 to one in this field I could see him

Being your first round leader Jake knpp is more of a a bit of a dart throw for me it’s it’s one of those I’m not exactly sure what his talent is but I don’t want to be late to the party so you know I don’t know about an outright

But first round leader at 50 to1 I do like and I mentioned Sam Stevens I think this I don’t even want to say he’s sneaky by the way because in DFS he’s going to be pretty popular at 7100 but he’s got the game to be good here and

When you look at some of the the the paspalum green courses like the Puerto Rico caralis punana he’s really flashed there and I think he’s really going to flash here as well I think he’s really interesting in like sort of the finishing position Market um maybe as a

Long shot outright but long story short really like him as a first round leader 18 holes he can do it at 66 to1 by the way these odds are mostly from B MGM I noticed they’ve been offering the best first round leader odds compared to other books that I really like for the

For whatever that’s worth uh but again if you get Sam Stevens at 55 to1 instead of 66 to1 that’s acceptable as well you know the word ppum has been used more in these 18 minutes than I’ve ever heard in my entire life combined so uh the things

You learn on the early wedge uh this is one of them now before Patrick McDonald attempts to take more of my money let’s hear from one of our sponsors we need to sports news anywhere we’ve got breaking news to bring you then get your sports anytime you want

Them big trade news overnight to discuss because we know you need Sports all the time a lot of movement in the rankings this week a legend adds to their legacy we’re bringing you that breaking news right here on HQ CBS Sports HQ anywhere anytime all the

Time all right last week as you can tell I’m still bitter about everything that happened at the Genesis Invitational including Patrick taking my money so you know what it’s time for some Revenge let’s start with our matchup and Patrick there’s one that I have my eye on so

Let’s hear your rationale before we get to it okay I I’ll save that one for the last we’ll get to get to the other good good ones first I’m gonna go with the thunderbear Thor Bjorn olison even money over EVR I get the EVR love you think about

His win at the worldwide technology Championship superwide Resort style golf course in Mexico makes all the sense in the world olison has been playing great on the DP World Tour one in his last start he’s had trouble kind of transitioning that talent and that quality to the PGA tour in the past but

I like where his game’s at and I think even money’s more than fair Grayson Sig minus 110 over chest Hadley Hadley is just a bad driver of the golf ball let’s call Spade of spade not accurate not long really relying on the putter uh iron play is dodgy Grayson s can get red

Hot with the irons much more well-rounded so minus 110 is a play for me and then this one Nikolai hogard plus 125 you can tell I like the dames this week over Tony fenale fow leads the field in total Strokes gain Strokes gain T green all that jazz hogard top five driving

Distance number two in total Strokes gain top 15 in Strokes gain putting as well and EC I was telling you about this little stat I tweeted out today I’ll let the the listeners in on it as well from four to eight feet this year Tony F now

Has made just over a hair of 37% of his putts the 50% mark on the PJ tour is eight feet from 4 to8 he is 37% that is 169th out of 170 players you’re going to have to make a lot of those putts this week I know he’s great

On pass balum I hate how the stroke looks right now and I hate how he’s putting so I’m going to take the plus money with hogard first of all who’s worse do you know off hand who’s worse than feno from 48 feet uh I believe it

Is oh gosh is it Rico ho Hoy oh well then we’re not betting him at all we’re just we’re just throwing that one out here listen I the thing about fow let’s hope his his lag putts get inside four feet because I’m gonna take I mean at

This number I don’t know if you want do you want the juice on Hoy guard or do you you’re you’re doing it even money you’ll do even money yeah that’s fine all right so Patrick are you in or are you out I’m in baby come on let’s go

Back to back snake play that music You know if I have to send Patrick another $100 on Sunday that will be the last I listen I’ve already learned don’t take on the counselor in terms of showdowns because I don’t think that worked out for me well last year I think I’m finding the same out about Patrick

Especially when I lose with Rory freak and mroy uh and now I’m gonna if I lose with fow who’s 8 to one or seven to one not good all right counselor what do you have as far as as your matchups yeah I’ll start with Michael Kim minus 110

Over Austin ekro Austin ekro I actually think might do pretty well at this tournament I know in DFS he’s picking up a little popularity and by the way I was all over Austin ecro uh last year when he was doing well so I really respect his game but again I think Michael Kim

Is starting like we we’ve we’ve started to see him graduate into like a different Stratosphere from a guy who just like M Cuts every single literally every single tournament to okay now like we’re seeing Improvement not just I mean really across the board with the metrics but we’re seeing more distance obviously

His his longer approach game is solid green in regulation as it compares to Austin EO uh better just pretty much everything he’s a little bit longer than Austin ecro off the T so I’m not saying this is like a great number necessarily I mean you know Michael Kim minus 110

Over Austin ekro but I would I would have expected this to be minus 125 minus 130 so I do think we’re kind of getting a deal here I I like Michael Kim in this tournament in general in pretty much most if not all markets Steven joer over

Melan Grio this one I kind of tossed and turned a little bit with if you read my article on Sportsline you know that Steven joer and Keith Mitchell and Jonathan Vegas were like first looks for me as soon as I saw that they were in this field I was like all right these

Are guys I’m I’m probably going to end up betting uh Grio has been playing a lot of golf and frankly he’s been really good but the ball striking has been a little spotty and and I just kind of worry about that where Steven jger it’s almost like Michael Kim’s a poor man

Steven jger if you will because Steven Jer is doing everything right last year he had a better finish uh well not than ailan agrio that’s Michael Kim just so everybody knows had a better finish than Austin ekro but Steven joerger last year did really well he just lost in a couple

Of categories he lost off the te and I believe he lost with the putter I don’t suspect that’s going to happen with with the way his recent form has been trending so I like him over Grio at minus 110 and then I’m just going to give out a nationality pick top Canadian

Taylor pendrith plus 120 there’s not a lot to contend with here McKenzie Hughes is the next guy down from Taylor pendrith and frankly I just don’t think this is the course for McKenzie Hughes the next guy down from that I I do want to mention this is Ben Silverman at plus

600 Ben Silverman’s kind of sneaky I just want to throw that out there if you wanted to make this Taylor pendrith play and just put a little sprinkle maybe as a safety play on Ben Silverman at plus 600 I don’t hate that but I still think Taylor pendrith is the class of the

Canadian field next down from that is Roger Sloan also maybe a little sneaky maybe playing a little bit better but again he’s not in Taylor Pender’s category and the two down from that are just not somebody that I not guys that I think have any chance to make the cut so

Taylor pendrith top Canadian plus money you know I didn’t even realize there were four Canadians in the field at this point and you just named or named them all or at least there’s seven okay well you named the top four there’s no way I could have named more than two I would

Have gotten pendri uh and I would have gotten uh the one you named afterward McKenzie Hughes after that no chance okay well here are my matchups I’m just uh you know we’re talking about roulette chips uh going Carson young over uh Patrick McDonald’s buddy Grayson Sig at

Minus 115 so young had a top 15 here last year or he was T15 here last year in more than five shots off the te which is something that I’m looking for here has five made Cuts in his last six events now Sig uh has two straight Mis

Cuts struggled on and around the greens mightily of late his form here not bad t33 and t18 but he’s lost Strokes with the putter each time uh as far as uh my other one Patrick Rogers over Davis Thompson at minus 120 uh Rogers has three straight top 25 start 2024 10

Place both times here I like that you know I love previous form Thompson’s been solid of late but he’s lost Strokes off the te and four of his last five which is a bad formula for this place so we’re gonna try these two listen I mean this tournament I’m not going these guys

Are going deep I’m not going that deep I’m going surface level but these stood out to me I wanted to get some Patrick Rogers action here now it is time uh let’s see uh we want to have a showdown here I don’t know uh potentially see if

You want to address Japan once uh Milano gilo your thoughts Japan first of all I love Japan he’s a big fan of the show he puts some bets out himself he watches the early Edge pretty much every single day so really appreciate his support and and everybody else that’s in here I know

A lot of you have already hit the like button let me just tell you a funny story about Japan real quick it’ll take 20 seconds before I um before I accept his offer so I do see XM sometimes on the weekends and he called in before the

Super Bowl and he said I’ve got a pick for you I’ve got Kyle yusek to catch the first pass from Brock py this is like this literally a week and a half ago to catch the first pack pass from Brock py at like plus 3,000 something crazy and I

Didn’t I certainly didn’t laugh at him I liked Kyle yusek as the first touchdown score at 40 to1 so I was like well that’s really interesting I mean it’s probably going to be a safe pass to somebody like Debo or Christian mcaffrey but certainly Kyle usechek fits that

Description well do you all remember who caught the first ball that brought Rock py threw I mean what a call it was just so Random it’s not like he listed off like 30 different bets he literally LED with that bet he had a couple of others very

Impressive I know he’s also a Grio truther and listen I I like ailan Grio just as much as the next guy except for Japan he likes him a little bit more but I I really think this is Steph Jagger’s tournament I really think he’s got a

He’s he’s the shortest shot that I think can win this there’s other guys like dri I think and hoard that are in their conversation but I think it’s Ste this is the field where Steph jger finally break through which means well Grio can’t beat him so Japan I requ I I I

Accept your Showdown and I request that Jake plays the Music you know to to say that Japan is an Amano gilo truther it’s true some things in life I just can’t get behind but hey Japan you got Kyle yek at 30 to1 to catch the first pass of the Super Bowl you know good luck as you said I think guo’s what

30 to one to win or a little bit less than that to win this week might as well take your winnings Patrick any thoughts on this showdown which one do you like uh Jagger or guo I don’t even care I’m focused on us EC okay just I just want I don’t need to

Get stuck in the drama between first round leader CA and Kyle use Japan I’m focused on Nikolai hogard beat and Tony fale this week all right all right that’s fair enough all right now it’s on to finishing positions my favorite bets ccel I’m going to let you start with a

Couple of top 30s that you have including a couple of familiar names that you’ve talked about yeah and I’ll say this I I think most books have top 30 if you don’t have top 30 I I’d be willing to accept these at at much better prices in the top 20 Market but I

Think it would probably be safer to play them in the top 40 Market because these numbers on Sam Stevens and Michael Kim I believe when you’re talking top 40 we’re talking like pretty close to even money like minus 105 minus 110 stuff or even

Like a plus 100 so uh if you don’t have top 30 I would actually defer refer back to t40 for these guys again Sam Stevens comp course is here comp green here I really like how he plays at these types of courses and I think the game really

Fits like he’s long off the tea he checks a lot of the boxes that we want to check which again is why he’s picking up so much popularity in DFS now am I playing him in DFS at 7100 not unless I’m playing a double up I I I just don’t

Think I’m going to play a guy that’s like 10 12 133% that’s that low at 7,100 I’ll find one of his pivots but again I can play him in this market and be very satisfied if if he does well in in that DFS market so I like him and I like

Michael Kim I don’t need to go over Michael Kim again I just think T30 is a really safe price T20 I would shy away from a little bit but I think Michael Kim has been consistent enough in this field to land well inside the top 30 one

Thing I want to point out and somebody somebody pointed this out earlier it came up on Twitter after the Adam Scott T20 which cashed but depending on what book you had you know it cashed either fully at like DraftKings or B MGM but places is like FanDuel they they they

Took a a reduction off of it so I do want to point out no knock against FanDuel um because I think FanDuel is a great book but when it comes to finishing positions you should not be betting FanDuel when it comes to T20 T30 t40 because the type of reduction that

They take is is really problematic I don’t know how else to say it um again FanDuel is a great book they have great odds and they have great selections and I love their their platform but just wanted to point that out B MGM they’re going to pay you fully and I like that

Book quite a bit too as every body knows DraftKings they’re going to pay you fully on those finishing positions um unless I’m missing something I think those I don’t think I don’t think draft King I don’t think DraftKings does I think they’re similar to FanDuel bmgm as

I understand is the only sports book who pays out ties for finishing position okay I’ll double check the DraftKings you might be right yeah I I got I had a I had a live bet the other week that got taken down a little bit because Bryson

Just Shambo tied for top 10 and so that’s why I I kind of knew on on another sports book there all right I’ve done pretty well with these finishing positions lately I had will zalot torus and Tom hogi among my bets last week I didn’t need top 20 top 30 should have

Played in both top 10 because they were both Rock Solid at Riviera so let’s play a couple of let’s play three top 20s here Brandon woo top 20 plus 160 at bmgm as we talked about I think it was mentioned earlier T2 in Solo third last year at this course loves this place

Gained more than 14 Strokes putting in the last two years combined and eight Strokes combined off the te sounds good to me sign me up for plus money at a top 20 Maverick mcney at top 20 plus 240 uh six in Scottsdale a couple weeks ago I

Mean this was a highly touted Collegiate golfer who has the pedigree his game is consistent across the board coming back he’s now off his medical exemption needs to you know try to get his first PGA Tour win I think he’s a value play with his talent in this field and then we’re

Going to Cameron Champ at top 20 at plus 250 now in two years here he’s gone T6 T8 that’s great he’s entering off four straight missed Cuts but last year he was T8 with six straight missed Cuts heading into this event so you just throw out the prior form horse for the

Course long hitter length on this course with little penalty for going astray not necessarily A Bad Thing and he has performed well off the tea and putting here so I’m having a a thought on Cameron Champ this week you might see his name a little bit later on now

Before we get to Winners and I’ll tell you this this group is all over the map let’s hear from one of our sponsors the madness doesn’t just happen yo get ready and although it’s marked on our calendars each year it’s built by Moments Of Mayhem before the and it

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$5 you’ll receive $150 instantly in bonus bets regardless of your Wagers outcome with bonus code edge 150 that’s Edge 150 all right it is time for the victors section here we have 10 names combined I have one I’m gonna start because I’m not creative you know what I’m going with

The chalk I’m not going to apologize for it I have the best player in the field by far who’s a horse for the course who has a T2 and a firstplays finish here at this Resort in viarta Mexico he has gained more than 11 shots ball striking

In each of the two years that he’s played here he’s been great off the te he’s been great on approach I don’t care how he putts Patrick I’m taking Tony fow at8 to one let’s do it all right you got four names here let’s hear why you got

Them I’m going Davis Thompson 42 to1 uh I know you mentioned he lost Strokes off the T and four out of his last five that is primarily due to accuracy and like you said very wide out here he he does just about everything right I think he’s

A great talent and I agree with CIA sentiment that the mid-range is kind of I think attractive this week and so I I like Thomas at 42 I got I got trapped in the nap the nap trap I guess at 50 to one uh played well in Phoenix flash

There at the Farmers Insurance open with the podium finish as well super long off the te seemingly can do everything right we’ll find out this week I guess 50 to1 I don’t to be honest with you I don’t really love the number but I played it

It’s one of those situations it’s one of those weeks honestly uh and I agree with see again Michael Kim 55 to1 I think he’s one of the more mispriced players uh on the entire board to tell you the truth he he does everything right he’s gaining distance off the te uh we know

He can win out here and he’s got himself into contention recently both the American Express and the farmers although he did fall off over the weekend and then Justin Su kind of just a talent play he he can be a stud he played well at uh El Carter now the wwt

Championship finished top five there had a chance down the stretch really good putter uh long off the te the irons I think turned a little bit in Phoenix and when he plays well you can kind of see it coming a little bit in the start before and I’m hoping that is one of

Those instances so at 60 to one I bet on Justin saw yeah yeah the talent’s there I I think it’s I think that’s a good bet in a good price in this field which you know as we as you said at the top and I

Think we’ve all said is uh not very uh not very good uh just terms of strength of field you know when I think of you know uh favorite golfers and you associate golfers with with certain personalities obviously now we have Japan with Amano guo but when I think of

Seia and when I watch stepen jger play I’m like that’s Sea’s guy so it’s no surprise to see him top your board at 25 to one yeah I like stephener like I said I think this is potentially in this field his breakthrough moment he really does everything well the putter can

Sometimes be an issue but this course can be a course for for team nut I mean we’ve seen that before so again Steven joerger with this field I like it at 25 to1 Taylor pendrith another guy we talked about like him at 25 to1 as well

A lot of these numbers were a lot higher part of the reason I still have Keith Mitchell at 35 to1 here by the way is because in my Sportsline article that went out Monday I think it was Monday afternoon I had Keith Mitchell and Stephen jger step Jer was at 25 to1 at

The time Mitchell was 35 to1 it’s now down to 25 to1 in most markets but I do think if you’re a sports line member you would have read that article and probably placed that bet at that time so that’s why I left that number in there

But again it’s down to 25 to1 at that number not quite as good but again I think Keith Mitchell’s live to win so you can go ahead and bet that one uh and then for the record uh Keith Mitchell let’s see it’s is weighted off the tea

But like again I got to remind you and his driving distance but I got to remind you t17 at the farmers around the green is his main issue same with Jonathan Vegas by the way and again that gets neutralized here because it’s just not a big part of winning at the Mexico open

So Keith Mitchell there 35 to1 25 to1 Michael Kim co-sign what Patrick and what we’ve already said and again Vegas is really coming on he had that injury that he had to shake off but he gained ball striking significantly in Phoenix around the green and putting is the

Issue for Jonathan Vegas but if you subscribe to team no putt here and you know that around the green isn’t a huge Factor than Jonathan Vegas as more of a long shot he was 75 to one I think when these lines open so we’ve lost a little

Bit of value but I do think he’s got a shot all right Johnny Vegas can he get it back uh and get you a a big number at 55 to one you got to cash a ticket here one of these guys has to get on the

Board we’re we’re due here but now it’s time for long shots and you know I didn’t get the memo when it came to Long Shots because I look at my long shots and Patrick had just as long a price on his in the last segment so I sorry about

That uh I’m I’m going with champ and McNeely at odds I guess I need to get with the program here hey by the way you know my top 10 parlays I cashed one last week at seven and a half to one with Klay and Sam Burns Burns tied for T10

Thank you that the field backed up so hey take that seven and a half to one so we’re going to roll with feno and Brandon woo as a top 10 parlay at 8 and a half to one you can get that at DK all right now you guys are not shying away

From giant numbers here Patrick you’re going with your boy Chan cim 150 to one let’s go e is Sam Burns officially off your list now because of that Patrick KL and Xander added to that list by the way we add we we don’t subtract yeah we

Don’t sub grows it’s in Sharpie got it okay uh yeah Chan Kim 150 to1 uh to be honest with you too I think I actually put a wager on sh Kim too so I’m spreading out the Kim exposure I think one of them wins Chan Kim 150 to1 like I

Said playing great gol one twice in the corn fairy tour recently uh and I think some of his finishes were a bit misleading and he finished top 20 at the American Express can can go low is hitting the ball well just needs uh to flash with the Putter and that’s kind of

What you’re looking at when you’re looking for a long shot I’m going to guess that this is the first time in early wedge history that the name Vince Wy has ever been mentioned on the program how’d you come up with this one I think you guessed incorrectly because I’m pretty sure I

Think you were on the show maybe I mentioned on the early Edge but I’ve been on Vince whey in fact I think he was one of my DFS picks like three or four weeks ago full disclosure when I picked him I don’t think it worked out but really coming into this season he

Had done really really well particularly with the ball striking the putter has been an issue but the cool thing about Vince wayy by the way Daniel Greer says I got Keith Mitchell I assume at 35 to1 hash andc We Trust let’s get that trending but the thing I like about

Vince whey other than the fact that the ball striking I honestly think like long term if we go back maybe 20 30 rounds like we start to see stuff from Vince whey and we’re like oh wait who is this kid but the cool thing is on paspalum

He’s really good too so like the Putter’s bad let’s don’t get me wrong but like he’s helped out by the paspalum greens and I think we see that when we look at remember those courses I talked about earlier uh that Coralis in Puerto Rico like he’s his finishing positions

There have been actually quite good over the last couple of years so I think Vince wayy especially since I Reed this guy about a month ago and I’m like hey this is a guy that I think is going to Splash on the scene a little bit more

Than people expect I think at 110 to one in this field it wouldn’t Shock Me gr for the record I have a pretty big outright card okay let’s let’s be honest this is like my sixth selection uh as a long shot but I think when we’re talking about sprinkling on something I think

Vegas is one of those sprinkle plays where you just put a few bucks on it I think Vince wh qualifies there as well I I’m impressed I I will never forget that Vince swy has been mentioned on this program now multiple times so when you pick him again later this summer uh

We will once again refer to the Mexico open at Vidant uh as the last time that you took an outright all right it’s time for some final thoughts I have one question for each of you uh Patrick let’s I’ll start with you see on this one terms of bankroll this week we know

That this tournament is you know maybe not the strongest are you going more money just because of the long shots are you going less money same amount what are your thoughts on that I generally treat every tournament the same unless for some reason there’s some outlier factor that has me intimidated about the

Tournament for example it could be weather like I just have no I can’t anticipate like let’s say it’s rough weather or something and I can’t exactly anticipate who’s going to get the better or the worse of it that’s when I’ll scale back in DFS and betting but to be

Honest with you I bet around the same amount uh for and I don’t necessarily like run the numbers for every single tournament to see how much I have down because I have round matchups some I like more in tournaments than others and things of that nature some live bets but

No I’m not holding back at all in fact I do think there’s an edge here because we have like the the one or two guys at the top really Tony Fen now and then we have that grouping especially in the outright in the finishing position markets like

I’m happy to bet just as much as I do in a tournament that has Scotty Sheffer and Roy mroy in fact I think these are a little bit more exciting to bet and watch because we don’t have the top of the board that we have this expectation like well who’s finishing second or

Who’s finishing you know in the top 20 but not inside the top 10 because those are going to be reserved for the Scotties and the Rory’s and the klays and the xanders and so on and so forth sorry for bringing up Klay Again by the

Way uh with all that said no my bank roll is exactly the same my round matchups should hopefully I’ll have a bounceback for my round matchups last week right now even with that horrific week I had last week my round matchups are now 16 five and no 166 and two I

Believe I’ll have to double check that but 166 and two so yeah it’s going to be the same amount you had to bring up kley again did you yeah I’m sorry we just we just couldn’t end the show yes Patrick he is on my list with Sam Burns Xander we’re kind of

There if feno doesn’t win this week I might add him to the list all right so I’m gonna put you on the spot here you don’t think fow is gonna win so tell me the next tournament that we’re going to see a winner under 20 to1 on the odds

Sport oh okay um we got cognizant coming up next then the API then the players yeah Cog a sneaky good field you got Rory Fitzpatrick Ricky uh I think Rory gets it rolling at the cognizant and then wins the Arnold Palmer so we’ll go with the API API C

What would you say when’s the next tournament that we’ll see a less than kind of a chalky winner oh uh what what what were the next three you said the API we’ve got Hondas next week the Honda Classic cognizant is what what that’s good call

On that then the API then the then the players or be I think I think it’s going to be the players interesting I I think we’re gonna see some surprises Scotty sheffler defending Champion you want to go bet that there are sports books when you can go and bet

Uh the defending Champion as I did this week I found a good number on Tony fow last week 12 to one uh once before this field got announced so hey let’s go Tony Fina just let’s let’s get it done this week you know what I’m picking this week

We’re going with it I’m G to win my Showdown it’s all happening well it’s been a uh it’s been an awesome show thanks guys as always by the way make sure to like this video subscribe to the Sportsline YouTube page so you can watch the counselor every morning 10: a.m

Eastern time on the early Edge thanks to producer Jake for his help and work always for Patrick McDonald and caad I am Eric Cohen thanks for watching as I always like to say let’s hit it big good luck