Our PGA DFS experts ANALYZE the COGNIZANT CLASSIC taking place this weekend. Find out who they are recommending for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!
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What is going on everyone AP over here at runer sports bringing to you once again we have the golf DFS and Bets show I’m here with my guy SNY it’s the uh SN it’s uh so we love the Honda the Honda Classic now it’s called Co cognizant Co
Cognizant cognizant I mean coniac I mean Co the coniac classic is that a little bit better I don’t know why I can’t honestly I I have no idea why I can’t say that name it’s like very very difficult but uh Snider what’s going on my man uh how you doing today doing
Pretty well uh we finally got a winner last week after two straight events getting the runner up yes sir guy Jake nap he showed a lot of heart and fought through and got us Soldier was he a soldier uh he was too he was too high
Price but he was a soldier a couple couple weeks ago when he was cheaper he was a soldier when he finished uh third place u a while back yeah very good um man I had the worst run out too like I had I was fourx
The field six to six and um Johnny Vegas cam the usual usual suspects that just absolutely suck on the weekend I mean there’s like oh it’s just it’s so hurtful and when I saw that you know sub 5% 66 rate uh I man I was a victory
Lapping I I felt so confident with Cameron Champ um just with the length that he has and everything and same with Johnny Vegas too John Johnny Vegas ped that final route like you still have that opportunity on Sunday and he comes out what double bogey double I mean I
Just yeah luckily I had the Nebraska game that day I took my son press into that game we had a good time uh big corn absolutely uh solid at uh at basketball and I think I mean Snider we we have the question in the chat before we get into
PGA do you think Nebraska Nebraska is a team that has never won a game in the NCA tournament ever they’ve never won an NCA Tournament game uh do you think they get it done this year I think I think they’re gonna make a little bit of a run
Maybe even win two games this year I I know they’re in position to get the double buy even in the Big 10 tournament which would be big if we got to win this game uh Thursday at Ohio State but they definitely should probably win out and I
Think they could even get if they if they win a game in the Big 10 tournament or something they could be like a five the seven seed I think at at best I think but uh would definitely just love to see him in the tournament as like a
10 or 11 seed even as well yeah I agree I I definitely agree there but you know with golf right now things are getting really excited we’re headed into the Florida swing it seems like things just it’s like rapid fire and the Masters is
Going to be here and no time like I love this part of the season NFL over we’re in what I you know love the grind of the NBA um you know a lot of the slates moving forward too are are under 10 games per night which is really nice I
Like those type of slates and then we got PGA uh the Florida swing we’ve had a lot of success on the on the Florida swing Snider so before I kick it to you to give us a course break through uh break uh a course breakdown we’re going
To go through saber Sim I’m going to show everyone on what the initial Sims are looking like who they like and then we’re going to do a live build going tier by tier like we’ve done in the in the past I got a lot of good feedback
From that um but Snyder Let’s uh let’s break down uh PJ National this this week give us a course breakdown yeah we head to uh PJ National for the first event of the Florida swing here this course is going to look in play a little different
Than he has in the past so as hold number 10 goes from being a very very tough Par Four to what should be an easy par five now they’ve actually also added nearly one acre of extra Fairways or they’ve mowed out the fairways uh widen them out like they were playing like in
2012 2013 so that’s going to make it easier off the te the rough is going to play be playing slightly easier as well as they’ve lowered the height of Cut From the Rough from two and a half inches down to two and a quarter inch so
Maybe that plays a little easier as well uh uh this PGA Nationals a par 71 though it’s going to measure 7,147 yards it’s going to feature 15 holes with water in play The Greens here are going to be a little on the larger side too at around 7,000 square feet on
Average with these Bermuda greens rolling fast at around 12 on the Cent meter golfers going to see 60 well-placed bunkers uh throughout this track as well uh many dog legs off the te are going to kind of force force some uh Force some layups layoffs off the te
There uh two of the toughest three stretches on the PGA two or reside here too holes 5 through seven and then holes 15 through 17 the bear trap have played over a half stroke overpower historically here so that’s going to be the two tough spots to go through but
Like I said it’s GNA not going to play too tough as we’ve seen in the past I think it’s going to play a little easier I have heard that it’s rolling firm and fast though I heard that on PGA radio earlier today they said the greens are
Rolling uh firm and fast the fairways are firm and fast so we’ll see how that translates and some other key stats be looking at this week Strokes G approach bogey avoidance around the green off the te and then putting with an emphasis on berm yeah very good excellent breakdown
As always Snyder you know um when I think of PGA National I think of you know our boy SE staka we got that outright two years ago and then our guy Chris Kirky last year who bested uh your guy um who was it I mean I’m going even
Talk about uh Eric Cole your guy you were on Eric Cole and they had that playoff and you know Eric Cole man he he had it he was right there and just could not get it done but I always I like this track it’s tough it
Rewards it rewards a lot of the the the different things you know where golfers are tested on tougher tracks and so it is interesting if it does play a little bit easier this year that’s definitely something to note um but it’s really I think back to the
Year SE one he was just pounding Fairways obviously he’s a big driver off the te but he was hitting Fairways he was putting himself he was protecting par and he was taking scores when when they would come and so I think that’s going to be I I still think
Fundamentally that’s going to be highly important this week here at PGA National now we’re just getting d uh dived in here and I got the Sims up we didn’t have the Sims up last time because we ran the show early and uh but we got it
We got to dial it this is what I call Bas build I always run this you one thing that I absolutely love about sabersim we can stay very organized up here with these tabs base build we’re going to do a live build that we talked
About and uh you know this will be my actual so just getting organized here live on the show uh I always title mine AP M and so just because I so I can keep everything organized but then what I like about it Snider is just creates a
New tab pulls up nice and fresh a clean slate and so you can work through many different scenarios or whatever so let’s go back to the base build I ran this here’s the settings I used I wanted to see in 150 uh uh mme you know formats using Min salary
49,7 Sim diversity down to one what that simulates is kind of a a cashy is type of build then what I did is I added the uh contest Sim in there so the contest Sims inside of saber Sim we have this built now let me pull up the uh the
Lineup so what I did is I obviously sorted um using the contest Sims off the base build sorting by risk adjusted um rate of return RI which really just helps to diversify our lineups and what I like about that and how it sorts is you typically still
Get some strong STS on certain golfers and we all know I’ve talked a lot about my strategy I like to take stands especially in PGA DFS so Snider let me get your quick opinion um let me pull the exposures tab over here uh so that
You can see this and so that we can see price and all the fundamentals there before we got on the show you talked about you hinted you’re like locking Rory this week locking Rory and moving on look at that 88% a cash type build the Sims absolutely love Rory mroy Adam
Senson Brandon wooo um and then you can see we’re taking two stands so it’s kind of it’s kind of how I play I like being overweight significantly overweight on three golfers and then kind of spreading it out and that’s what we’re getting a lot of right here with our base build
What’s your initial thoughts um just looking at these uh ownership exposures at a very high level yeah it’s kind of looks um kind of what I thought I thought senson would be one of the kind of popular cheapies that might hit uh he’s going to going to be pretty high
Owned in that 7K range and then Rory I was I I guess I was kind of surprised that he hit on that much but like I I like we’ll kind of get into here in a little bit I think Rory is just just an absolute like I think he’s five times
The better of a play as Tony fenan was last week in this event this week so really interested to see where where you’re at on this top tier range and as we kind of get in and get uh to dialing in these uh saber runs yeah let’s do that we have our live
Show build here uh we’re going to go tier by tier like we always do and right out of the gate there’s a few things that I think that are very interesting one from a pricing standpoint uh Rory obviously in a tier of his own and um I
I actually hit 5500 in in lower I created a a little filter there you could bring some of these guys in if you wanted to but I was just doing that and I like what DraftKings is doing experimenting with this really cheap pricing it’s going to create create some
Really interesting builds but let’s go back up here Snyder let’s go tier by tier starting with 10K and up Tom Kim all the way up to Rory what are you doing with this yeah I’m gonna pretty much just be all in on I may I even lock him I’m
Goingon to be at least probably 80% on Rory though I think he’s just underpriced here for this field uh there’s some guys in the 6ks and 5Ks I think are definitely playable here in this week uh we’ve got more guys priced uh under 7K than we do clearly under
Under 7K than we do above that so uh I think just locking in Rory is just the way to go I mean you’re getting Rory here at plus 650 at DraftKings the next closest guy is 22 to1 which is like one of the biggest gaps I’ve seen in a long
Time normally we’ll see some guys you know 15 to one 16 17 18 something like that but it’s clearly Rory and then everybody else is right behind him big gap in the outright markets there we’re always a big favorite over whoever they’re going to match him up with as
Well in the matchup markets and he hasn’t really he hasn’t played here in a while but he he’s done well here in the past though he won this event back in uh it was quite a while ago he won this he finished second another time as well I
Think the I think the big Advantage for him is going to be off the tea uh they kind of widen some of these Fairways I think he can be able to kind of bomb away and I think he’s going to have a huge uh Advantage here I know he hasn’t
Been playing as well I mean he w the vent over in Dubai finished second so he played really well over in Dubai comes to the states didn’t really play that good on the West Coast Swing but now he’s back home in Florida I think he’s GNA feel a lot more comfortable here and
I think Rory is just going to uh I think the floor foror in this field this week uh I’ve seen he’s like 25 to 30% to finish top five and I think that’s right where he’s I think he’ll be at least seventh or better in this event so I’m
Just going to lock and Rory I think the PGA needs one of these big hitters to finally win an event I mean we’ve seen all these dust balls and the 100 to ones win all those events before Jake knap won last week at 40 to one so I feel
Like a big name’s gonna win this this is a big boy course so I like Rory up top and then if I was gonna I don’t know if I think I’m just gonna play Rory and then we’re gonna see a lot of ownership um like cam Young’s going to be 15 to
177% Russell Henley is going to be upwards of 20% on Tom Kim’s going to 15% I do think mat Matt Fitzpatrick is the guy that kind of gets lost in the shuffle here but I don’t think I’m going to go there if I put anybody else in
This top tier range I think it’d probably be Russell Henley he’d be he’s got the great course history here would be my second option in this 10K range if I add anyone else besides Rory but I really just like locking Rory up here and then I like some of these guys in
The 9k range I think the guys in the 9k range have just as much if not more win Equity than the guys in the 10K range besides Rory I’m with you um I like that breakdown and the thing that I’ll add because I am definitely with you on the
Rory stand I’m gonna get very overweight on him and I I think for this live build we like to be aggressive here’s what I think we do Snyder I think I think we take our stand on Rory we’re gonna do the lock button like we’ve done kind of
In the past and he like here’s the thing when I look at this this next year from like Cameron young who hasn’t been playing that well um you know at 70th a few weeks ago he did have what one top 10 and the 16th I
Mean he could get it going but he can blow up in a hurry too and there’s just so much danger lurking around this course Matt Fitz Patrick you can poke holes in him he just we haven’t seen any form from him like he just hasn’t been good 58 15
772nd Russell Henley I like Russell Henley but 10,200 yeah I’m I’m a coorse type of guy I definitely value uh golfs that have good course history over over some that you know think that that doesn’t matter I I definitely think it matters but he’s 10,200 what’s the opportunity cost that
You’re sacrificing by playing him and I don’t the other thing too is like I think it’d be very difficult to pair Rory plus one of these guys so by taking a stand with Rory you’re kind of you know where the chips fall um for your week like you know where you’re going to
Be rooe like you want Rory to do good and uh that’s it I know it’s it’s kind of the easy way out but still it makes sense I’m with you I think we do see a big name here uh win here very very soon and it would make sense especially wide
And the Fairway like you created a lot of good kind of um you know reasons as to why Rory could get it done and I just look at this range and I’m with you I know we’re gonna get into the 9k range but it’s like you know Tom Kim he hasn’t
Been doing that much I mean here’s the other interesting thing take out Rory we know his form is kind of wishy-washy and we don’t outside of like here in the states we don’t have that much to go off of yet and it’s Rory he he’s going to to
Get it back if you take him away out of this scenario and then you look at every other golfer in the 10K range over the last three events that they’ve all played there’s one top 10 out of all of these guys and that was from Cameron
Young what three weeks ago so like I don’t know I mean I just I’m with you on playing the n9k guys or even 8kk guys um over this range so for this live build let’s get aggressive uh and not tell me if if you disagree but can we just cross out cam
Young Matt Fitzpatrick and Tomkin maybe leave Russ Russ Henley in there to see if he lands in any builds but what about that we’ll bump up we’ll bump up Henley it might not even matter but let’s bump him up just a little bit you good with
That yeah for sure I like that all right let’s get to this 9k range Eric Cole runner up last year almost got it done in the playoff Eric Cole is been up and down um but two weeks ago had a nice finish and obviously played very well
Here G to be high expect ation coming in it’s tough It’s very difficult to put up backto back solid performances however Shane Lowry did it he uh in 2022 finished second followed it up with a fif fifth place finish um sep straa he won in 2022 followed it up with a fifth place
Finish in 2023 so you can see good performances backed up again in the following year here what are you doing with this range Eric Cole all the way down to Keith Mitchell yeah there’s a few guys I like in this range quite a bit uh first off would be Eric Cole just
A guy I’ve been riding last year at this very event was the first time uh we got on him he was a soldier at this event he was priced in the low 7ks finished second here and he’s just been I think he’s got just as much upside if not any
Any more upside than anyone in the field besides Rory so I really like Eric Cole again ranks number one in my model this week uh where he finished second last year the putter has been heating up for him as well it’s improved in the last three events as well the iron play has
Remained solid going back to like mid-september he’s been one of those guys that’s just been hovering around like the top 15 about every week uh four four uh oh that’s five of the last seven events he’s been right right inside that top 15 range somewhere around 10 10th to
14th uh was 10th at the Genesis and his last time out in a much tougher field than this uh so yeah I really like Eric Cole I think Eric Cole should almost be you can make it make a case that he should be the second highest priced guy in this
Field I think when you’re looking at course history in recent form so really like Eric Cole I know he’s gonna see some ownership but uh he’s getting some uh some sharp action in the matchup markets as well uh couple of the matchups he’s in the money’s moving his
Way so like Eric Cole like I said uh and then I think JT Poston is going to be the guy that kind of gets um squeezed in this ring uh because we’re going to see a lot of people go to Eric Cole a lot of people
Are going to go to Ben on Shane low and Daniel Burger all taken up 17 to 20% ownership I think JT is going to be the guy that comes in closer to like 12% than anyone in this range I really like him I’ve been playing him uh a lot
Lately he’s been hot with the Flat Sticks gained well over 68 Strokes last 36 rounds he’s hitting 74% of his grain regulation as well and his his scrambling rate is near 70% as well he ranks sixth in par four scoring so I really like uh JT again uh for this
Event I’ll just keep writing him as well uh Danny Burger is a guy I need to I’m gonna keep an eye on Danny Berger I’m not sure what I’m gonna do with him I may just like filled him in mme or something because I’m not I don’t really
Have a big conviction either way on him yet so need to dive into him a little bit more and I really like Keith Mitchell again I was on him big last week kind of got off to a slow start last week got it going throughout the weekend still finished inside the top 20
He won the event back in 2019 and was ninth in 2012 22 as well solid recent form and plays plays tough tracks well too he’s he’s a guy I like to Target on Bermuda grass as well so uh I think Cole JT Poston and Keith Mitchell are my top
Three guys in this 9k range I’m G look to get overweight on it I think Mitchell is going to be lower owned than like Berger Lowry and on too so I think Chris Kirk’s going to see ownership in this range too so I think I’m going to play
JT and Keith as two of the lower own guys in this 9k range and then I’m just gonna Jam Eric Cole again I couldn’t like now like talking through this 9k range I like I couldn’t even imagine clicking some of those 10K guys cam young Matt Fitzpatrick Tom Tom Kim I
Mean like look at this like Eric Cole second last year Chris Kirk uh one last year seven year year before that uh Sun JN 2020 first 2021 uh eth it struggled a little bit outside of that and um you have benan he’s finished fourth here he’s shown
Some form recently as well you have Daniel Burger fourth in 2020 and uh fourth again in 2022 I thought he looked good in the last event he played can we play uh pay a premium price tag for him I don’t know uh uh I think it’s a
Good debate and um I mean he’s making Cuts right now um he has the course history he’s a ball Striker I like him on these type of courses I think we can I’m Gonna Bump him up I think we can Keith Keith Mitchell obviously a past winner here too ninth in
2022 has shown some form as well like I could not imagine pay playing some of these guys uh in the 10K and up range so I am sold absolutely sold on Crossing them out I’m I’m a little torn on like so I am a buyer on minu Lee this season I
Just yeah I’m really torn on what to do here at this track at 9600 I I think he’s a little overpriced but then it’s like we got benan like almost everyone here feel like I want to play them but the price tags are pretty big and so how
I’m treating it is I think we just bump some of these guys up um benan we give him a little bump Eric Cole we both like him um that that bump was a little bit of aggre aggressive there uh do you have a take on Corey Connors this because I’m not gonna play
Him at that price range I’d rather play the guys around him but I mean he’s solid I mean I could see him top 20 in this event or something wouldn’t surprise me but I think he’s a guy that’s gonna kind of finish around that 30th to 35 35th place like he usually
Does it just seems like a te bar uh Tough Golf Course good ball Striker golf course and that’s Cory CS so like I don’t want to fully dis dismiss him um I agree that the price tag is a little elevated but I get that vibe from a lot
Of the golfers in this range um I think play Keith Mitchell over Connors though for 100 less he’s got yeah course form and he’s got just as good of um recent he’s actually a little better recent form too and he’s got the course history and then Shane Lowry would got a bump up
It’s just I mean I’m gonna kind of I don’t think sunjam will factor in but uh Shane Lowry I wanna I want to bump up a little bit too so I I like to play aggressive I’m when you think about how roster roster construction’s going to uh
Look here Rory takes up a lot of salary you could probably fit in one one 9k guy um and you know what I’m going to do I’m going to unlock Rory I know we want to be very overweight on Rory but I really like this range right here and I just think
There’s going to be some builds that pop in um that look pretty attractive in this mid-range build so and it’s not like Rory is is absolutely dominating everything right now too so and and we continue to see randoms win these events and so yeah I don’t know uh I’m I’m
Gonna take the lock button off of Rory bumping up this range go ahead I think over the next day or so I think we’re GNA actually see Roy’s ownership kind of come down because I think a lot of people are going to be looking at this
9k range and be like I’d rather start my team with three of those guys than go up and play for Rory so it wouldn’t surprise me I seen early projections had Rory around 30% it wouldn’t surprise me if he when the cards get flipped over uh
Thursday morning if he’s like 22 to 25% on it wouldn’t surprise me at all all right we got our bumps in the 9k range we like the 9k range do we like the 8K range Justin Rose all the way up to Denny mcuts M McCarthy what are you
Doing with the AKA guys Snider yeah there’s some a few guys here in this range that I like uh I really don’t think this this range gets much ownership though as well I think a lot of people are going to look to Target Rory up top and then those 9k guys which
Could kind of squeeze a few of these 8K guys I do think Jagger’s going to see some ownership though great upside has been top five two of the last three events and he was top 15 here last year he’s gained Strokes across the board over the last 36 rounds I think Jagger’s
A good good option there our guy pavan’s back in the field we were on him heavy early in the year but now he’s been off for three weeks so I’m not not sure if I’m G to get to him or uh kind of unsure where his form’s
Going to come back in after going so hot for those three to four weeks and now he’s been off for three weeks so he could have lost some of that Mojo it’ll be interesting to see what happens there ex SE stro is the guy that I think could
Could potentially see the most ownership maybe in this range uh I think he’ll be like around 15% or so I think it’s going to be yeah Jagger or SE sto will be the highest own in this range probably both right around 15% which is still easy to
Get overweight on that if you want he won this event back in 2022 and finished fifth last year so he’s got the great course history here uh doesn’t have the best form heading into here though he’s missed two with last Rec cuts which could hold his uh ownership in check
Then a guy I’m really interested in here is rasman hogard uh been playing great over on the Euro side just absolutely stroking it over there uh now he comes over to the us over his last 36 rounds he’s gaining over two strokes total on the Euro side so it’ll be interesting to
See if that game can translate over here into the states as well he’s a guy I have interest in and then our guy big hos I think he’s kind of a little lower owned in this range I think he could be like somewhere in that 8 to 10%
Ownership range easy to get overweight on him if you want he’s uh he’s been doing good for us since the fall I mean no reason to really jump off now he finished 16th in his last trip here uh you can get a hot putter like we know so
I’m gonna have uh big hos in the pool again I’ll be slightly overweight on him again yeah I like that call um just to add on to Bo Hustler he was 16th here in 2022 um and the form is good the Forum is really good 6th 14th 41st 24th uh
He’s playing good golf right now so I can get on board with Mr hos uh did Jake NAB did he withdraw I don’t have the withdrawals up in front of me no I don’t think so he’s actually playing with Rory this week so I don’t think he’s gonna
Withdraw it’s just I mean think about this like this dude I I like this guy and you’ve been all over him you’ve been all over him this dude’s a stud I could definitely see him coming in here and and you know balling out but at the same
Time it’s so tough all the interviews all the just the emotions in getting your first win especially with the road that he’s gone that he’s gone through now to come here you’re paired with Rory you know former world number one it’s Rory maroy I mean like absolutely insane
You’re grinding I I looked it up Jake knap was he grinded the Canadian tour for like three four years this dude’s a grinder he was a what a bouncer at a nightclub and then he grinded the corn fery Tour on and off I think he even got
Had to go back to the Canadian tour gets on the PGA tour car uh tour and then gets a win really really impressive but to go back to back and especially you know flying across country basically and doing it at a course like this very very difficult what he’s probably on a bender
Probably on a bender hopefully hopefully he’s on a bender I mean yeah gotta celebrate something sh right on the right on the course there on whole 18 I it’s a case by case type of thing but I think he’s an easy fade and not a
Lot of people are gonna play him but I just you know what we were on him and you you sell you sell at highs you buy at lows Jake knpp is at a high right now we got to be an absolute seller I like the hostler call sep I love playing sep
Here he plays really well here form questionable coming in but that’s fine Jagger bomb I absolutely love the call Denny’s just it comes down to the putter he’s such a good putter that that just keeps him in events and uh so like I’m not gonna like completely fade him but I
Don’t think at this projection he’s G to be that much of a factor uh into the de decision Luke Liss Al Alex noren I mean looking at Luke list the form is I mean man you know coming off a second two weeks ago hasn’t really played here no I Luke Liss like
8100 feels very expensive did you talk about Justin Rose at all uh no I wasn’t I just didn’t get the rose I didn’t get the list I get the list call to play uh I’m just not gonna be on those I think Denny mccarson is also like $700
Overpriced so I didn’t even really consider him I’m gonna give Justin is a little bumped just because like at this type of track um I could see him do it do like we don’t have a lot of history here to go off of back in 2020 94th he
Was terrible like absolutely terrible uh uh back then so and I’m not saying he’s good now um I’m not saying that at all but in this range I don’t know I I I think there’s worse plays so I gave him a little bump does that mean I like rose
Do I want a lot of them no I just want to bump him up a little bit to see kind of where where he falls in our builds let’s keep it going though let’s let’s hit the 7K range Doug gim all the way up to Tom hogi uh what are you doing with
This range yeah we’ve got a smaller 7K range than we usually see here we’ve only got 18 guys in the 7K range which is very small from what we used to see I mean I know we got the six and the 5K range is now and they pushed a ton of
Golfers under 7K for this event so we got 18 guys here there’s about three or four guys that catch my eye here uh Tom hogy doesn’t have uh course history here but he certainly has the recent form heading in he was 17th or better for his
Last five events coming off the top 10 at at the Genesis and looks like he will be I think probably right around 10% or so in this event so I really like Tom hogy at that upside there uh tont uh he’s a great berm putter looks solid
Early in the year two top 15s but the ball striking definitely up and down for him he’s an interesting guy for like a 150 150 build and then we got my guy MTH down here I mean I’m not sure why DK keeps lowering his price tag uh he’s
Like an elite value I think at 7.1 it took him a little while to kind of shake off that rust coming back from injury last year he’s now made four straight cuts he was T6 at Phoenix and then 13th last week in Mexico he’s he’s got an
11th Place finish here looks to have kind of figured out the driver as well he’s actually gained Strokes off the te in three of his last four events which could be big here as well it used to be his big downside was the off the te play
But he’s got that driver working I think he’s a great great option this week uh I think we’ll see him compete down the stretch there on the weekend again I think he’s a guy that could definitely easily finish inside the top 20 this week so I really like MAV at 71 he’s a
Great putter great berm putter as well so it’s another Plus for him and then Doug gim is another guy that’s kind of just really GL at me I mean I know all the models and everything are going to be pointing at dou gim as one of the top
Values on this slate it’s another guy that’s just way under pric I think at 7K flat three straight top 13 finishes going 13th at the farmers 12th at Phoenix then eighth last week in Mexico doesn’t have the best course history here but hopefully that kind of keeps
His ownership in check but I think Doug game is a guy we need to look at at 7K flat yeah I agree with that with most of that um Tom hogi so 6 17th 18th last four weeks I believe um oh 0 of three here yeah but he hasn’t played here the last
Two two years I think we can Overlook that because Tom Hogie good ball Striker good iron player showing solid form he is what are his odd 6 66 to one I kind of like that uh Tom Tom hogi definitely a guy that we can play uh I bumped him
Up did you talk now down to 50 to one all right so he’s getting steamed up I kind of like that Taylor pendrith did you talk about him um traditional kind of flop lag spot very very popular last week struggled U missed the cut what what was that he’s fine for this week
Yeah 7,800 yeah so he’s made the cut two of two last two last two years he has good experience so 25th and and 22 42nd last year flop lag people have that bad taste in their mouth you typically see these plays uh uh you know ownership definitely deflate on these type of
Plays too so I want to get a little I want to get aggressive I like Taylor pendri quite quite a bit it seems like Adam senson is the popular play here The Sims really like them a few things that I’ve read busy day today tennis NBA in
Golf uh but the things that I’ve read a lot of people liking Adam Spen and I’m kind of torn um what do you have his ownership at like I like his odds his price is really good three of three made Cuts here form is solid I mean it checks
A lot of boxes a lot of boxes that I look at uh when I’m making plays so it is it is a typical play that I am typically on uh what do you have ownership wise on Adam spencon I think he’s gonna be right around 15% or so oh
Okay I yeah I don’t I mean I don’t like I know people like to argue like a few percentage points and everything and you know 177% 133% this in PGA I mean look when when you come from the NBA world it’s just we we have different views as
Far as like chop CES because I know I can always get overweight if I want to with my with how I play I play very aggressively and I know that if a play is 20% and but I still love that play I know I can go 65 75% and I just I know
I’m going to be locked in to being very overweight the field and I have plenty of Leverage in that scenario so yes it is important knowing what the ownership is and having good ownership projection but um as far as like chalk and evaluating that and deciding like oh
Like this play is going to be 18 20% you can’t play him I just think that’s kind of the wrong line of of thinking because there’s always ways to get leverage on said Play So Adam senson I like I’m bumping him up Baden out is the other
Guy CH Christian Baden out I like him here I think he was a few years back um maybe I think he was a workbench play here it’s just when you think about PJ National tough course bizay out thrives on tough course as a grinder um two of
Two cuts here 42 25th I think his form is fine 20th 28th uh 24th I I like Christian bazen out Rory is the one I’m just or Ricky is the one that I was I was get sucker into play Ricky and I know you always make fun of me for
Playing flower but I’m gonna give him a little bit of a bump not saying like I absolutely love him but I’m gonna give him a little bit of a bump Eric Van Ruan I know you were on him last week um are you going back to uh
EVR solid price tag here I mean he’s a guy that in like 150 I’ll probably be right around the field on him probably around around 7 to 10% on them I think and then yeah 80 to1 um we’ll have to check those odds and it’s it’s so interesting comparing odds to the
Different price ranges like Ryan Fox not getting a lot of love from the books er uh EVR definitely is Taylor Montgomery isn’t um and then Adam shank three of five cuts here hasn’t really done well like no nothing ins well inside the top 30 um so really tough price tag and then yeah
Your boy MAV McNeely I typically like to play MAV on the west coast but the price Tag’s too cheap I can get on board um so I gave him a bump and Adam shank I’m gonna give a bump just because I like the price tag and he has experience Matt
Wallace I’m just a sucker for these ball Strikers at tough courses these guys that can value par um or fight for par and I feel like Matt Wallace is is one of those types and then Doug gim I’m with you on Doug gim I’m going to give him a bump up as
Well uh Billy horel I know someone in the chat was asking about him four or four Cuts made here did you have a take on Billy Ho I just haven’t really been playing him much over the last year so I mean he’s fine I think it wouldn’t surprise
Me if he finished like 42nd or something like he did last year here I don’t really see the the the big upside that he has anymore in his career he’s kind of kind of went downhill the last couple of years so I just haven’t really been on
Him yeah I I’m a sucker for Co horses so I bumped him up call me a fish I don’t care uh let’s get down to the 6K range um uh talk talk me through some of these 6K guys and then with this revised we’ll rerun this and we’ll kind of see where
We’re at and I’m going to change up the settings too add a lot of volatility in there as well uh 6K rain Schneider what are you doing here yeah there’s some uh pretty good options here in this range I’ve actually built a couple of teams
Where I went Rory and 29k guys and I still like my team jamming in some of these cheapies down here uh I think AE has a ton of upside for under 7K I think he will see a decent amount of ownership though so kind of play that as you want
Carson young was a guy that was really rating out rout well for me uh in the mons and such really good off the tea just popping for me some this week four straight made Cuts with two top 20s one coming at the MX and then a T8 last week
The irons have been heating up the last three weeks as well he’s finished top 30 here last year in his first start so I think Carson Young’s a solid guy uh Johnny Vegas was hurtful on Sunday uh but he’s he comes to a track where he’s
Played really good at so I think he’s solid he’s made his last five cuts here with the worst finish being 42nd so I think Johnny Vegas is a fine option Lee Hodes I don’t think many will really go here I think he’s a really solid punt option there 6.5k 14th and Ninth the
Last two trips here comes off a top 25 at the Genesis I think Hodes has some uh has a little bit of win Equity I mean he won the 3M last late last summer I think this is kind of a maybe a possibly a slight comp to that but uh I think Hodes
Is a good 6.5 cheapy CT pan is a guy that I like for like the large field upside risky gvp option he was a hero for us in a round four Showdown last week think he can carry over that momentum he’s actually had some solid course history as well he was 16th then
Third in his last two trips here so I like CT pan for a punt that’ll probably be somewhere around one to three% ownership so it won’t take too much we can overweight on him uh Ben Silverman’s another guy I’m kind of looking at here another corn fairy guy I’ve been kind of
Keeping my eye on isn’t the flag plant like Naf was for me this year but he’s another guy that’s kind of up there for me 13 last week made the cut at the farmers and was top 20 at the Sony as well so he’s got some upside he’s won he won a
Corn fairy tour last year as well as a handful of top fives over on the corn Ferry tour so I think he’s got some pretty good upside uh for 6K flat and then Brandon woo was another guy in this 6K range that caught my eye he was a guy
That played well last week he was top 15 last week was top 15 at this event last year so I think Brandon Woo is another 6K guy to keep your eye on yeah I agree with that so I am fully on board with CT pan I like the Ben
Silverman call I like that quite a bit you’re always you’re always good with the these like random punts that you know the corn fery guys getting in early on these guys like Eric Cole last year like I don’t I don’t think Eric Cole was chocked uh so I’m with you on what was
He I think he was like 1% last year yeah so I mean I love getting getting uh in on these guys early cam champ no we’re not gonna go back to him um not not a good I mean well Fair Fairways are wider but still uh he just
He’s got the putter actually wasn’t that bad last week it just it was everything else um CT pan ball Striker yes Dyan woo I kind of like that call uh lanto Griffin was decent last week for a bit I think uh can’t go there Ben Silverman I like that
Call um Lee Hodes Lee Hodes I’m with you on I think his uh his history here is is also pretty nice now again like I was on Johnny Vegas last week um I was very very high on Johnny Vegas he’s in my core um you know I five of five uh last
Five years making the cuts here he’s done very well it’s place he knows when I look at his game last week week just who who knows what was going on through through his head he was out of it and start starting off with a double when
That happens I typically throw it away I just I’m like well I don’t want that round to really factor into you know decisionmaking uh moving forward I know he’s still trying to find find his game but there were bright spots uh that I saw last week so I can get on board with
Johnny Vegas it’s a place that he knows tons of experience here and he shown he shown at least a few positive things I I think it was at the uh Waste Management Open was that where he got 22nd is that right or was the week before that uh it
Was uh Phoenix yeah Phoenix yeah 22nd so yeah I’m on board with uh with Johnny Vegas I think these like valami I think we get off of those type um again if you’re a member make sure to catch the Wednesday show of Keat on on there uh he had a great great call
On Sammy valami last uh Wednesday that got me on on him and I had that built with the binaki and nap that was up there with fow champ and then Vegas and uh Carl Yan and uh everyone else was very hurtful in my build for a while I was up there and
Feeling very good I thought I was live but that build ended up finishing I think like like 17th or something or 118th who knows but uh I like where we’re at and again like this is uh you know an hour show it takes time to really dial in your build we’re doing
This at a very high level we’re making just slight adjustments I mean I typically when I’m like finalizing my stuff I do it while listening to um you know listening to the premium show reading through our content and uh it takes time two three four hours really
To dial in and to get your builds looking right and and me formats we’re doing this at a high level so we’re just making slight adjustments we’ll show you what the build process looks like and uh with making these adjustments we’ll rerun The Sims and we’ll see where we’re
At We’ll add in some uniques and we’ll dial in our player pool is there anyone like what are you doing down here um I saw a few names that I think I’m fine taking a shot on but what are you doing down here I think there’s some I think
There’s definitely some options down here in this 5K range which will help help you uh get to uh like Rory and such but like Andrew Novak he’s off backto back top 10 last Bo he’s Boomer bus though I mean he missed the three Cuts previous to those two top 10 so you know
He’s kind of that upside boom bus guy but he’s got the correct price for that though I mean he was top 30 here last year but that was due to a very very strong short game I think he gained six or seven strokes with the short game
Here last year so I think he’s in play uh Sam Ryder’s a 150 type play uh poor recent form but does have a pair of top 10 at this event Nico’s down there top 25 last week decent punt play puts better on Bermuda grass so I thought I
Like Nico down there I think Bridgeman’s 150 1% type guy down there with some upside and then we got a couple guys I think are gonna see the most ownership in this 5K range who is Nico uh Nico I can’t pronounce his last name uh this guot Nicholas uh yeah
Okay n Nicholas yeah I call him Nico yeah Nico all right perfect uh hio sucks I’m not bumping him up two most popular plays I think down in this range are gonna be Bud collie who returned at the Phoenix he made the cut there kind of
Fell off during the weekend there but he has finished uh 12th here back in 2019 and was 42nd back in 2020 uh back when he was on tour uh and he’s back this year so he’ll see some ownership I think think he’ll maybe be around 5% and then
I think Parker Cody or cudy or however they’re saying it a 5.1k I think he could potentially reach 10% down here uh I think he’s going to be the highest pric guy like I said in the 5K range he’s off back-to back top 25s last week
At the Mexico and then at the farmers so he’s the guy with a recent form that people are going to be looking to punt with I think down here at 51 for Simplicity purposes I’m not going to change my my settings and uh Mr Cy you are not going to make final player
Pool I’m going to give nasty Nate Lashley just a little bit of a p a bump as well um and we’re just making slight slight bumps here so um let’s go through here and let’s run this and again we just made some high level adjustments um normally I would exed out more players
That I just am not going to play and don’t want in my pool let’s uh let’s keep Sim diversity High a lot of volatility that we’ve seen uh so far in uh in the golf streets this season men’s salary I talk about this a lot I don’t like leaving a lot of salary
I’m going to go 49,7 I want to you know maximize the salary within my build uh to make sure my lineups are fully optimal I’ll go seven uh Sim diversity setting Max salary obviously pool size we don’t want to be here all day so let’s just let’s
Go, 1500 that’ll be a little quicker and we have our contest Sim setting built real easy real easy you could also add in some group rules we’ve talked about this before uh I’ll add in the soldiers in here at times where I want to make sure that I’m forcing in at least one
Solder into my build that’s a rule that you could do you could also create a rule and call it like core and you could say let’s actually do that Let’s do let’s just uh let’s create a a rule let’s call uh core and let’s just say
Use at least one now let’s each pick Let’s each pick what two two golfers so that we’ll before for actually give me give me two Snider and I and I’ll pick one we’ll have three that we that we use and mine’s gonna be Daniel Burger there we go okay you go him I’ll
Go Rory make it easy yeah we can go there I’ll find a jeepy then down here uh let’s go with let’s let’s plug In MAV let’s go m m yeah so this is yeah this is like a a hypothetical core and it’s saying use at least one and so if you have someone that you follow or someone that you are listening to that has given some good takes and you’re
Like oh I want to make sure I include and get exposure to that group you can create a little group rule around a core and just say hey I want to make sure that at least one of these Guys burger Rory uh MAV are falling into my lineups
Not doesn’t mean that all three are going to it just means that every single lineup is going to include a burger Rory or math um now again this is early uh this is hypothetical we’re going to save this rule we’re going to use it now let’s build uh snip talk to us about
Some matchups outrights while the build is going on yeah there’s a couple that have been moving a little bit uh JT Poston seeing a little bit of a bump against Matthew Fitzpatrick that opened that minus 110 minus 110 and uh Hon’s minus 120 now um some others that are
Moving JT Poston and Tom Kim are still even minus 110 minus 110 Eric Cole seeing a little money against Sun JM that’s kind of moving towards Cole’s way and and same against benion he opened plus 105 against benion and now he’s minus 105 against benan so uh Cole seeing some uh some money
There um then little bits moving towards Jagger against hustler in one one spot um Rasmus hogard seen a little bit of movement against the borne Olsen so he’s seen about 5 C moving his way there then Glover seeing some money it’s uh pouring in on Glover against pendri he open
Minus 125 and it’s minus 130 in a couple spots on him nice yeah so here’s where we’re at there’s a couple ways to do this or at least a couple ways that I do um if I am if I am changing my projections if I’m making significant changes to my
Projections to add bias to the players and let’s just when will I do that if I have a really good read or if I think I have a really good read on the week I will be aggressive with my projections what I will do is sort by highest
Highest score projected score and then I will add in some uniques to uh diversify the portfolio um ju just a bit so um you’ll see here sorting by um exposure we’re getting a lot of Rory Burger Cole mad McNeely you know Novak Keith Mitchell Etc let’s go the contest Sims route um
I’ll take away the uniques but then you can still use the men uniques with the contest Sims if you want to diversify out further the other thing too that I clean up um I know there’s a lot of different kind of theories out there uh a lot of different styles that people
Play I don’t typically play 62 golfers so I will clean that up and these guys that are just like you know two one I will just X them out and get them out of my lineups I like between 35 uh 33 to to 45ish uh golfers in my pool and I like
To take stands I like to get very overweight that’s something that we’ve talked about um quite a bit so now let’s take away the uniques let’s sort by uh risk adjusted now this is what we’re looking at let’s bring this over I don’t you know Snider I don’t hate this um our
First build our basee build we were getting a ton of Rory um we unchecked Rory we elevated the 9k range there were a lot of plays in the akk range that we liked and then it was like a few in the seven and 6K that we bumped up and I
Think what happened is so we went from what 80 80 something percent Rory and since we elevated that 9k range you’re getting more Burger um you’re getting more a Cole Russell Henley as well I like how this sets up and I like how this looks and when I think about it I’m
Really torn on on Rory and how much I want to get I think I am gonna set like a 70% Max and if I land under 70% a Rory I think I’ll be okay with that I think 65% Burger is too hot yeah GNA like cap
That at like maybe 35 I think that’d still get you roll up or weight on him and that’s super easy to do and this is if you’re out there using sabersim again too you can do that you can you know I put a in mat this is what I now again
Normally I would have 5,000 builds to work with we did what 1500 um but still we had plenty of builds we capped him now we have 34.7% and then it bumped up the the other lineups Andrew Novak we don’t want 64% of him now this is where we might
Get in trouble um because we probably didn’t run it up didn’t happen yet but if we keep going and we keep bumping these guys down eventually it’s going to give us a warning that we just don’t have enough builds but um this is one way to start
Adjusting uh your exposures too if you feel like you’re too heavy on a certain golfer start after you created your pool usually if it’s a pool of 5,000 you’ve ran your Sims you’ve done all of that now you can start defining your pool by setting in some Max ranges this is
Something I like to do and you can see right there Rory starting to come back up as well so something that we like we still got Cole up there too uh Cole’s actually seeing a lot of movement in the out rate markets too he’s been making a
Pretty pretty big push up on Pentacle lately I like this build too right here um nice risk adjusted you know return obviously uh which again a lot of this you know the thing about the contest Sims and and I’m Tor at time uh for for PGA I will actually use in
Certain weeks I use the standard Optimizer mode through saber Sim if I’m set on defining my Minimax because to get a true you know to get a a true like result using the contest Sim you really need good ownership projections and you want those to be spot on so if you trust
Your ownership projections and you feel very good about them upload those create your your your contest your contest s there rerun it and uh you’re going to be sitting really pretty so there are things there just to be a little bit careful with that can throw off your
Build like let’s let’s just say like mad McNeely you know if he was like 1% projected own and we had a massive projection on them obviously the contest Sims are gonna absolutely love them and they’re gonna toss them into all your lineups so that’s just a highlevel uh
Scenario of what to be a little bit cautious with but I think this week sets up to be really fun it’s a good multi-entry week There’s a great debate with Rory lock him do you not lock him I think the right move is get overweight
2x the field is probably fine I think to do that 55 to 65% range will accomplish that X Out the others in the 10K range bump up the 9k 8K range and I think that’s a good approach um for this week Snyder final thoughts and uh did you give your
Outright uh no I didn’t H I’m gonna go that’ be kind of chalky but I like Eric Cole this week I’m gonna take Eric Cole it he’s right around like 25 to 28 to one depending where where you’re looking at Eric Cole I like that I like that
Call um the one I’m gonna go with really good form he’s 0 of three here though but he check so many boxes Tom hog hogy uh 7900 is kind of a long shot we’ve seen we’ve seen guy golfers that look like him from a stat profile standpoint
Get it done here uh Chris Kirky last year sep straa a little bit I mean Tom hogi more of a ball Striker think Kei MIT has a lot of win Equity here too this week ke Mitchell as well I like that call all right Snyder uh good stuff my man
Uh Playbook up here momentarily tonight we’ll have The Showdown up uh tomorrow have The Showdown Playbook up the uh the main Playbook the core plays the cash chart that’ll all be up here later tonight as well very good um if you haven’t yet hit the like button hit the
Subscribe helps us out a lot retweet the TW tweet get this out there if you have any questions about sabersim and everything shoot me a DM I’m happy to answer it a lot of good stuff going on over here at Rumer sports for my guy Snider I’m AP let’s run Pier
4 Comments
Great show, guys.
Go big red!
You gents have major stones to lock in Rory. 8 consecutive rounds of above par play at this course. Good luck.
Gotterup WD was hurtful