Eric Cohen is joined by Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald to break down all of the best bets and picks for the Genesis Invitational!
00:00 Intro
2:30 Genesis Invitational Storylines
10:30 DFS Picks
17:30 First Round Leader
21:20 Tournament Matchups
27:15 Finishing Positions
31:45 Winner
38:30 Longshots
ABOUT THE SHOW: Welcome to The Early Wedge! Your #1 destination for all of the bets bets and picks each week for the PGA Tour! Join Eric Cohen with CBS Sports Golf Writer Patrick McDonald and SportsLine expert and Early Edge host Sia Nejad to break down each tournament of the PGA Tour season through the Tour Championship , every Tuesday at 7pm EST!
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Welcome to the early wedge presented by B MGM I am your host EC AKA Eric Cohen and thank you for joining us last week was we were so close at the Waste Management Phoenix Open but yet another 100 plus to One winner took it down that’s hopefully not happening this week
We’re gonna actually hit one of a like the top of the board I feel like well let’s bring in the the experts and they’ll decide that it is the uh we’ll call him the Nick Taylor of uh golf betters that is one C in aad the best
That’s the best right now that is and I don’t even know what golfer I was going to compare you to Patrick I was gonna say Lucas Glover because he failed to miss his tea time and then you know I failed to meet you when you were in
Phoenix I was gonna go that way honestly though Patrick McDonald from CBS Sports uh your thoughts on the Waste Management Phoenix Open you were out there for a couple days uh what did you think well I I appreciate that Lucas Glover comparison obviously missing you missing
The show I apologize to you all that is on me I was rubbing elbows with uh some WM execs coach Sabin Glenn pow as well so unfortunately you guys had to take the back seat uh but never again I I promise you guys but the WM experience I
I don’t think it was a coincidence that EC and I were both out there the week it completely hit the fan I mean I saw you at that Bottled Blonde Suite lining 18 EC shirt off waving your shirt in the air going absolutely berserk yelling that
You hit Nick Taylor 9 to1 coming down 17 uh but overall just a phenomenal experience counselor watching the Waste Management Phoenix Open from afar just your thoughts on from a betting perspective it was all over the map you thought Scotty Sheffer starting the fourth round he’s gone he’s up two shots
On the front nine it’s over until it wasn’t yeah it’s so interesting because in 18 holes so much can happen right because we thought siah theala was really in good position we had that outright right and then Scotty Sheffer makes the charge and then if you looked
Away for 20 minutes and you looked back and then all of a sudden you saw Nick Taylor and Charlie Hoffman at the top and Scotty sheffler trailing and to hit the Galla kind of nowhere to be found fifth place uh you would have been like no no no this is like an alternate
Universe this doesn’t make any sense so it’s really interesting so much unfolded and I I’ll say this because we mentioned it in the chat people are talking about ailano Grio and part of the reason they’re talking about him right now now is because I had two matchups last week
I had bo Hustler at plus money over Min wle that cashed my other one was top South American Grio over Vegas etar and viegas and well the two of them didn’t make the cut going into round four and this is how much things can change in 18
Holes going into round four Vegas was at nine under Grio was at one under this thing was completely dead they ended up tied emilano Grio shot eight under they ended up tied so we push that bet we win the other matchup it was unbelievable it
Just goes to show you might be down Nick Taylor but you’re never out you can go and win any given golf tournament and I love the comeback ball from Nick Taylor that was really cool to see wow it really was Charlie Hoffman was awesome but Nick Taylor uh was clutch I mean he
Had to birdy 18 three straight times which is not an easy hole I mean I’ll let you know when I play it on Saturday I guarantee you I will not be birding it uh when that happens all right let’s move on to the Genesis just like the
Tour so it’s a 70 uh 70 player event but there’s a cut which is kind of weird let’s get to our story lines uh Patrick we’ll start with you couple of struggling stars who in fact uh I believe there’s one sports book who’s offering generous prices on both of
These players that you’re going to mention uh just because they feel like they no chance they’re gonna win right I I wouldn’t say necessarily that I would think the Genesis Invitational given their history at Riviera for Victor hind who’s been working on his new swing he
Took last week off at the WM Phoenix Open was in the field originally WD because Vic’s a type of guy who when he wants to work through something it’s through practice not necessarily on the golf course come game time so I’m I’m very interested to see how he plays at
Riviera he’s always played well at the Genesis Invitational and then someone like Max H who played well at the Farmers Insurance open top 15 there but at Pebble Beach and at uh last week at Scottdale you know his hometown now he’s really struggled one on the greens and
Max was you know top 20 top 25 type putter on the PGA tour last season and with the driers so he’s been lights out these past four years I think he has a win a top 10 a top five and a runner up last year to John ROM so for those two
Guys I mean it’s a spot where one yes they are struggling relatively over very short sample size but it is a great spot for them to potentially bounce back and get Rolland come Florida swing well I spoiler alert I do like one of those guys that you mentioned and I will have
An outright and probably some other including that particular golfer counselor when it comes to your storyline this week uh we’re talking about you know John ROM won this tournament last year he’s now not on tour who replaces him I guess you know like where’re the Stars we’re we’re
Missing the star power on the PGA tour this year this is a great setup from you EC I’m I’m kind of going bottom of the barrel here right I’m going like morning SP Sports Talk uh rankings topic like who’s better Michael Jordan LeBron James what I want to know is you know last
Year we had the big three you mentioned John ROM it was Rory M John ROM and Scotty sheff or at least we thought that was the big three until Victor hin came and just stole everybody’s money but now like I don’t know if Victor hin is he
Now in the big three conversation of course big three owed to the Miami Heat but you know we know it’s Scotty we think it’s Rory and and I don’t really know who the third man is with Victor havin struggling like we just talked about you know I’m not sure he joins
That conversation although he would be the appropriate fit I I just want to see with some of these people G tour players now gone to live I want to see who emerges like to be in that at least not the Scotty conversation necessarily but the Rory conversation and these types of
Tournaments that are so loaded is it Xander maybe is Patrick Klay gonna come back to form a little bit I mean there’s so many Max hom who was just mentioned Justin Thomas is he going to emerge in over the next few months be so good that we actually start talking about him in
That in that vein uh Jordan spe there’s just so many names we can go over and again with some of the star power leaving I really think it’s important for the PJ tour to have some of these shorter shots like you mentioned EC emerge as like a Victor like some
Somebody who can win on the PGA tour on somewhat of a consistent basis I think the PGA Tour needs that I mean listen we’re gonna be watching we’re gonna be betting either way but I’m just really curious to see which one of these Stars emerges as a superstar yeah and I think
That’s a great point there we need to see a as fans you want to see your bets have a chance no offense to Nick Taylor he finished second at the at the wmo last year so there was some course form and Charlie Hoffman has always played
Well there but we wanted to see Scotty Sheffer and you know another big name Justin Thomas in that playoff Nick Taylor and Charlie Hoffman I’ll be it was a great finish to that that tournament but it doesn’t move the needle this week on tour we it would be
Great to see two of the you know Rory mroy and Sheffer Rory mroy and spe somebody like the big names can’t lay hom some of the the ones that that Patrick mentioned havlin if they were in the mix I think I think the tour is rooting for that and my story line well
Guess who’s back this week tiger and seemingly it’s at the right time for the PGA Tour we these leaderboards we talking about they’ve been lacking the top players of late is there a prime betting spot for him I’m gonna ask you guys we none of us that I saw have any
Bets with tiger right now there he is minus 125 on one sports book to make the cut and minus 110 not to make the cut if you were to to bet one side or the other Patrick I’ll start with you which side would you start make the cut or miss
It so field of 70 top 50 through to the weekend anti and those within 10 Strokes of the lead so there’s a potential for this cut realistically to be like 10 people and so do you think Tiger Woods is going to be in that bottom 10 even though he
Hasn’t played great golf since this comeback since kind of the 2022 Masters he has made five out of six Cuts two of them he’s had a wd from but he’s made it through to the weekend uh I think his range of outcomes since this comeback has been high you see it with the
Volatility from round to round even last year at Rivera he shot like 69 then 74 then 67 then 73 uh so if he puts together a two- round performance like that I I I think I think he’ll make the cut yeah sea where would you bet where
Would your betting spots be if you wanted some action on tiger this week top 30 top 40 miss the cut make the cut what would you be thinking yeah I think it’s for me it’s got to be make the cut because I honestly I don’t know what to
Expect from him I’m not going to pretend like I do but it sounds crazy but him being top 40 doesn’t sound super realistic to me that doesn’t mean he can’t do it I I just I would rather like what what did you say the number was on
To make the cut it was What minus 110 each way minus 125 to make the cut minus 110 to miss it yeah given the parameters of this cut to me I I’m going make the cut at minus 125 cuz I do think he’ll make the cut he’s got to be within 10
Shots of the leader I think the game for him to do that all right well I mean as Patrick said like literally there’s 10 golfers that uh might not make the cut tiger you would think would would post one good round in the first two all
Right let’s get on to DFS picks you guys are always money with this well Patrick we’re gonna start with you I I gotta admit your storyline you know you got me all hyped up on Max hom and then I look at it and you’re fading Max hom from DF from a DF
Standpoint why is that yeah Ju Just from a DFS standpoint right I think you see maxom State of California especially at Riviera where he has four straight really good finishes and and the price point is pretty palatable under 10k so just because of that the current form isn’t fantastic I’m gonna just do
Without Max H this week it’s a risky play we know he can win here but I look up at some of those other you know 10K guys and I have more comfor Fort and uh I’d say confidence in them and then for you know the clearance rack The Bargain
Bin CA mentioned a Milano Grio and ever since he’s mentioned him a few weeks ago he’s been on an absolute tear just hitting the absolute cover off the golf ball and I know the history isn’t great here I think he only has one top 20
Finish but he’s in it so well and in the price at 6,900 it’s going to allow you to be pretty flexible in some lineups and then SIU Kim’s a name I’m going to continue to ride at $7,600 nice finish top 20 last week at the WM Phoenix Open uh he’s just been
Great this season so far hitting the golf ball and I think the putter is starting to come around he’s been in between the broomstick conventional now he’s doing leftand low a little bit and it seemed to work out so once he figures that out I I think he’s probably due for
A win maybe not in a signature event but down the line in uh one of those gen pop fullfield events I’d be looking for sewo Kim here soon so I like him at 7600 and then Keegan Bradley I always remembered the playoff here with Phil Mickelson H
Bill hos Bradley making that putt on 18 to make it into the playoff hos beaten both of them uh but he’s playing great golf at the moment he easily could have won at the Sony Open played great at Pebble Beach as well struck the ball
Well uh so at 7900 Keegan Bradley on a golf course where the winning score isn’t going to get out of control that’s always something I’m interested in yeah I and I love how you go Bargain Basement now C’s picks only have one kind of a a
Lower uh price there with Kurt kyama but I actually counselor I really like your top two even though you know I have an anti-s Sam Burns uh outright uh thing going on right now but tell us why do you like Burns and Adam Scott yeah I
Think Sam Burns can really Splash here I mean first of all third last week he really really got hot over the weekend and and by the way his track record here is really checkered it’s it’s very Hit or Miss like Miss cut or you know top five and I think that’s exactly what
You’re looking for in DFS and given that his game seems to be trending in the right direction and that I think he’s actually a really good course fit at $8,700 not only do I think he’s a good Splash play to potentially even like take down this tournament but what like
I don’t know what ownership ownership’s going to look like but he’s sandwiched among so many players that are going to be relatively popular like for example we’ve got like Tony Fe now a couple hundred ahead of him we’ve got Jordan spe at 9,000 siah theala m in some
Popularity Cameron young we go down to Adam Scott who I’ll talk about in a second like there’s only so many people that are going to click on Sam Burns because my next two guys here are going to be relatively chalky I like honestly I I will start at least one of my main
DFS lineups with Sam brones I will live in the 8K range because I think there’s some win potential again in that 8K range and I think the top is great but but the differences between like Xander schofl who I love in this tournament and Sam Burns over four rounds I don’t think
The differences are that extreme especially Xander’s probably a bad example because he’s hitting it so well but you know Max H Victor hlin I don’t think those differences in this tournament are that extreme between those two guys and Sam Burns Adam Scott is g to be really chalky I mean I don’t
Need to say too much about Adam Scott his recent form is great you look at the ball striking you look at the short game you look at the weighted T green whatever you want to look at Adam Scott shines and oh by the way his history
Here is amazing I mean it truly is very very good so at 8200 I don’t want to say he’s a it’s a misprice but he’s going to be pretty popular and it’s for good reasons so just know that going in Kur kyama is another sort of Sam Burns light type
Play where I think he is going to be very Hit or Miss I think he’s played here once before he missed the cut no big deal that was last year kurama’s game right now and again small sample size maybe it’s not the sample size that you’re comfortable with but small sample
Size this guy is unbelievable weighted T Green in this field and I think at the time I did this two nights ago I think I went to like 20 rounds maybe 22 rounds I always try to find a number from a round stand point that might be different from
Other people but I think it was 22 rounds his weighted C degree numbers were fourth in this field and again small sample size it’s still Kurt Kama at the at the same same like you know we’re we’re not talking about a guy that’s done it long enough where I can
Say he’s going to be great but it’s $6,900 in DFS in particular I’m willing to speculate and speaking of speculating I think playing Victor hin at 10,000 is just probably the wrong move I think Victor hin is great I think he can win this tournament but if I’m looking at
Guys in that price range given how Victor hland has played to open this year unless I’m doing it strictly for ownership leverage and I’m not even sure that’s going to be the case and what I mean by ownership leverage unless I’m doing it because nobody’s gonna play
Victor havin that would be a good reason to play him right well I don’t think that’s the case so I’m just there’s no reason for me to play Victor hin at 10,000 okay that’s fair uh I get it and listen Patrick’s storyline uh from earlier in the show uh pops up right
Here in DFS Max H Victor hoblin Fades now one of the reasons that everybody loves watching the early wedge is because see you are the frl king now how did you do last week before we get into how did you do with your frls last week
It was kind of weird because it went a little bit long so this is why like following all of us on Twitter is a good idea what happened was I had thala right I had what what did I have four first round leaders I’m trying to remember one
Of them was thala I think was 45 to one well overnight he was the first round leader but of course play was interrupted so there was a lot of play to go and what was so interesting is that at the Sports books that were actually offering cash outs it was you
Know in one of the few instances where like I I basically authorized people who asked me I said hey maybe a cash out’s a good idea here because if you remember Novak was chasing him there was a few other guys that were like much better than Novak that were chasing him and we
Knew the conditions were going to be calm the next morning really calm really perfect for guys like Nick Taylor so what’s really interesting is that people asked me hey should I cash out and I said yeah this is one of the few inst instances I probably would because he’s
Only only a few shots up conditions are going to be premium tomorrow and oh by the way I like some live first round leader bets I listed three one short shot one medium shot one extreme long shot the short shot was Nick Taylor a lot of people liked cam young in that
Position to catch siah theala I liked Nick Taylor at 12 to1 so there were a lot of people that cashed out on on siah theala and then cashed again on the first round leader on Nick Taylor now I can’t take credit for hitting the first- round leader there right because I did
Not but we were able to leverage that situation into cashing out and then one uping it to a different first round leader which actually hit it was actually a really cool really unique moment I well congratulations that was a great bet and I know people were going
Nuts on on X and message boards about that so well done all right Patrick I know you don’t have any official picks in this section if you were to give me one or two names just to keep an eye on a little sprinkle maybe from you before
We get to the counselors who would you take I I love the Sam Burns call absolutely love it um I would say the one year he did contend it was that super windy year he he played great the first two rounds and then the third round they had to delay it because the
Wind was so strong that balls wouldn’t stay on the green and he got caught up in that a little bit so I think the course fits great for him he’s playing great and we know Sam Burns is lights out one in round ones and especially on
The greens so I will uh support ca’s play on that one all right counselor you got four of them on the board here people are getting their pens and pencils out and paper and everything like that tell us why you like these guys yeah I mean I’m looking for guys
That can really dial in honestly the first two are to me the the more realistic shots that I like on this course in general we know they’ve splashed on this course I’m talking of course Sam Burns at 28 to1 By the way most of these numbers and please ask
Because sometimes I fail to specify and Patrick and EC sometimes we fail to talk about like where we’re getting these numbers from um most of these numbers are from BM GM I think I largely used B MGM and DraftKings for the first round leader numbers but I’m pretty sure three
Out of four of these are B MGM numbers their first round leader numbers happen to be longer than most Sam Burns listen we we know he can get completely dialed in I I really really like where the form is I think Joey Blaze mentioned his form
Uh in the chat as well cam young I don’t expect first of all I didn’t play cam young La last week uh and I was pleasantly surprised that his game sort of rose to the occasion and I think it could happen again I don’t expect him to
Win this tournament but we he’s shined in first rounds before and at 35 to1 with this limited field given where where his game might actually be in contrast to where it was a few weeks ago I think Cameron young is really live to be a first round leader these next two
Are kind of long shots I mean Bo Hustler at 55 to1 his ball striking has been a little shaky the short game is fantastic the putter can get really hot but I think if the ball striking is there I think he’s live to be a first round leader because
I know he can get hot with the Putter and Grio what can I say about Grio like I I I got go back to him the chat loves G I know Japan is in here he says he’s on it I mean I almost we were talking about Genesis earlier and quoting Phil
Collins like I almost want who who who sung that song uh Wind Beneath My Wings did you ever know that you’re my hero who was that does anybody remember I know the song but I’m I’m blank in here because hero rymes with Grio did you ever know that you’re my hero you’re
Everything I wish I could be I can fly higher than an eagle you are the wind beneath my wings you can replace eagle with Grio and that just hits perfectly Grio is going to be our hero in the first round leader Market 66 to1 wow look at seea quoting bet Midler uh
Something I never thought I would hear on the early wedge but coming up next is there a showdown looming between myself and Patrick find out after we hear from one of our sponsors the madness doesn’t just happen yo get ready and although it’s marked on our calendars each year it’s built by
Moments Of Mayhem before and the crowd goes crazy and begins to Bubble long before it bursts sure Madness and marks may go hand in hand but it starts right here all right Patrick are you ready for this it’s time for the matchup section here it’s where we’ve been really
Profitable see especially and you Patrick really good at these me I I take I take my shots here these aren’t really my game every week but you and I are directly opposite on one of them and I’m actually taking the plus money side so I’m let you start first with your
Matchups and then we’ll talk about a showdown go ahead let’s let’s hear what you got I was I was unaware someone’s uh peeking at the answers before the test clearly youc uh but my my first one I like Kore Kawa minus 110 over maxom couple cow Bears here more Kawa just in
In better form I know they both play well around this golf course and the thing I like about morawa this week is his short game Pops at Riviera he tends to like this type of grass he likes poana more importantly the grass on the fairways in the rough as well so I like
That at minus 110 Scotty sheffler minus 130 over Rory mroy I mean Scotty sheffler I I don’t know if there’s anything more you can say in terms of ball striking he has one finish outside the top 30 uh I feel like since I was born potentially and everything else I
Know last year this event wasn’t a good event for him but it was a T12 and so if it’s not a good event for him and he finishing T12 I like his chances so his floor is just so high he’s probably going to finish like fifth or seventh or
Something like that and if Rory Clips him kudos to him and then JT Post in minus 12 over Eric Cole I think posting is one of the more mispriced guys on the board I know Eric Cole’s been playing well he’s kind of falling off this year just a smidge but Poston his approach
Play has been fantastic the putter has been good it was really bad last week but I think it’s good good bounce back spot for him so I like a minus 120 over cool all right Patrick uh Rory M I’m getting juice against Scotty what I saw
From Scotty on Sundays he just you know the game is great the approach game is phenomenal best in the world but the putting is still a problem Rory mroy and his last five uh Genesis invitationals you know three top 10 uh Scotty Sheffer is last four Genesis invitationals one
Top 10 so dare I am are you in or are you out I won’t touch on the the sample skewing there but I I’m in don’t don’t get me wrong I I will I’m in see snake play the music already come On and don’t get me wrong I’m giving you Rory Ma I’m taking Roy maoy at even money here I don’t need your juice here as good as Scotty is this is Rory stick and mroy at plus money n we we don’t we don’t turn that down uh my other one
That I like is Sam Burns over Jordan Speed speed’s history here I’m not overly impressed uh one top 20 in his last five here Sam Burns as we’ve talked about uh three top tens in a row uh can’t really argue with that uh he’s not
G I’m not gonna bet him to win but in at minus 120 over speed sign me up all right counselor you have a couple here what do you like yeah and by the way it was Stewie he’s asking see your thoughts on uh Oar first round leader I think
It’s fine I tried to focus on guys that were going out it’s kind of arbitrary but but noon I’m talking Eastern Time noon or earlier and and oar was was a little after that burns was was the last guy out like I’m trying to Target morning guys uh more than anything he
Was of my four uh it was it was Burns that goes out at 12 again I’m talking Eastern Standard Time so because oar was after that I didn’t really consider him but uh yeah I think he’s a fine first round leader absolutely live to win this whole tournament uh Tommy Fleetwood
Minus 130 over Tom Kim is my first one so Tom Kim scares me for one reason and it’s because last week on approach he was actually really good and the ball striking in general like hasn’t been good for him so perhaps he’s found something but you know just going back
To the beginning of the Season even towards last season like the ball striking and short game have been not very good like that the Tom Kim that we once knew in loved like he’ll be back but I just don’t know that he’s back yet and Tommy Fleetwood we haven’t seen much
Of him and and what we have hasn’t been particularly great but what I like about Tommy Fleetwood is is his comfort on this course I think he’s going to be really good on this course he’s got he’s got kind of all the tools in the bag which to me is what you need
At Riviera you you need to have good short game you need to be pretty good with the ball striking and and unless Tommy Fleetwood just has another bad tournament I I think he just outclasses Tom Kim in a lot of these things especially with the short game in mind
So I’ll take Fleetwood minus 130 over Tom Kim by the way his history is better as well I think the last two times he’s played here he’s been inside the top 30 so I I think that’s notable enough to point out and then I’m going right back
To booser last week we had boosler over Min muu Lee this time I’m taking over Harris English now Harris English his finishing positions have been quite good like you know some people might think Harris English is back the problem is I just can’t get over what he’s doing in
The ball striking department off the tea he’s been okay I don’t think he’ll be great off the tea in this tournament I think hosler will be better but a proach Harris English has been bad like straight up bad he’s lost on approaching six of his last seven tournaments and
The one he gained he gained like s so it wasn’t like some Splash recent approach play that all of a sudden we need to pay attention to like we might need to with Tom Kim Harris English is doing it all with the short game I don’t want to discredit short game because that’s
Really important here but good news Bo hust short game is great too so to me those two cancel each other out and then now I’m looking at ball striking I just think Bo Hustler is more fit for this course and I think his ball striking is
Way more steady so at minus 110 I think I’m looking at a good price I’ll take him again back toback weeks very solid going a little bit down the board a little bit I I like it counselor I’m good with that now it’s time for my favorite things to bet every week those
Are finishing positions and you know what I see a parlay and you know Patrick that just every week it just warms my heart but this isn’t a make the cut parlay because as we talked about when 60 of 70 guys are probably goingon to make the cut that’s not going to get it
Done all right finishing positions you’re going kind of chalky here but explain why you like Sheffer and JT yeah I’m trying to squeeze a little more out of this JT number I think it’s around like minus 150ish 160ish uh and Scotty sheffler is just a top 20 machine uh so you give me
Justin Thomas who I’m super high on I think the wind’s coming very soon and then Scotty sheffler who probably is going to finish around fifth or seventh like I said so plus 115 I think uh is something I couldn’t pass up on for top 20s all right counselor you and I are
Kind of aligned on this one but you’re taking the safe route with Adam Scott yeah I tend to with finishing positions and frankly it hasn’t worked if there’s any place I’ve been deficient like on this show it’s been in the finishing position markets where I’ll either split
Or I’ll lose two out of three so I want to be S sort of conservative here I like everybody knows I’m kind of conservative in this market anyway I’m usually going with like even money the plus 130s the plus one 120s things of that nature so I’ll take another plus price at Adam
Scott T20 I see what you have in the top 10 Market I don’t mind that at all at plus 250 we’ve already talked about Adam Scott his comfort level here his recent form he really checks those boxes in a big way so I think T20 plus 105 makes a
Lot of sense I do want to point uh two things out one is and Patrick has addressed this if you if you watched this show last year Patrick addressed this I thought pretty well and EC I don’t want to speak for you but I think Patrick and I when it comes to the
Finishing positions we sort of tamper down or or or temper our our unit sizing with with this particular Market in other words with head-to-head matchups like I’m a full unit if not to depending on whether I I love something or not in the finishing positions I would encourage people unless you just really
Love this Market Market to maybe go down to half unit or S units or 75 something because I do think this Market is a little bit more volatile than obviously the head to-head matchup where you only have to beat one guy the other thing I
Want to point out is it was Mark buckolz who asked top Australian Adam Scott and I believe the number he quoted was like plus 135 and it was with Jason day and Cam Davis I don’t hate it I don’t love it I I think it’s good I think Jason day
Is kind of sneaky I think Cam Davis is kind of sneaky so it wouldn’t surprise me if like Jason day wins that one but I am a believer in Adam Scott I do think he has some win potential so I wanted to point out Mark buckolz because top
Australian I do prefer his pick Adam Scott yeah and I’m Gonna Roll with Adam Scott top 10 I actually love this Market the key though is you have to play it at a place like B MGM which is one of the few that actually includes ties because
That’s where if you tie and let’s say you have a five-way tie and this has happened at other sports books where it’ll it’ll cut the size of your bet if you tie with five others for the final spot spot Cuts your bet uh you get 1 of
The stake times the times the units there or times the the whatever plus 250 let’s say for Adam Scott so you have to be careful but bet MGM is the right place to play these bets go Adam Scott top 10 five top 10 in a top 20 in his
Last six tournaments around the world great course history Here sign me up you know producer Jake was giving me crap about this one uh before the show will zot Taurus top 20 plus 130 listen he had a t-13 at the Farmers Insurance after a T3 4 in Palm Springs the game is coming
Back here he gained more than 12 shots combined against the field in those in those two tournaments and he has two top 20s uh in his last three here including a solo fourth last year gained nearly 13 shots against the field so uh I like
That uh a lot and I’m going with Tom hogi as a top 30 he is a uh as a top 20s tier in or top 20s in three of his last four tournaments and he was T14 here last year great iron player who excels on approach and and with the flat stick
Of late has gained Strokes putting in his last four tournaments now where can you bet all of these as I mentioned at bet MGM new BET MGM customers can sign up today and get $150 in bonus bets just place your first wager of at least $5 and you will receive $150 instantly in
Bonus bets regardless of your wages outcome with bonus code edge 150 that’s Edge 150 now before we get to our outright winners another Market that we are due to hit let’s hear from one of our sponsors out there there are two colossal beings both forces of nature in
Their own regard but in here as soon as the shoot bursts open The Duality of Man and Beast begins to fade this is the PBR on CBS Sports Network all right it is time for listen we’re due it’s all I’m going to say is we’re du Patrick I’m going to start with
You now I was big on JT last week in Phoenix I was all in he was number one in my fantasy rankings by the way you can check us our columns we have a bunch of columns between the three of us out on sportsline.com C has got one out I
Think today Patrick has a couple out this week plus his work on CBS sports.com and I have the fantasy rankings uh that you can find also on Sportsline so Patrick I was all about uh Justin Thomas last week now you’re picking him to win at 16 to1 this week
Why is that I I am and uh yeah Dustin MGM doesn’t let you given it’s ties paid in full but FanDuel or DraftKings uh you can get it done over there the uh placement bet for uh the finishing positions but yeah Justin Thomas 16 to1 he opened I think as high
As 25 maybe even 27 so 16 is steep but I do think the win is coming soon he’s played well here before he should have won here I think in 2019 JB Holmes played out the pulled out the UNCC Dean Smith Playbook hit him with the four
Corners and slow played him in that final round JT kind of fell apart there came in second but he ranks first in total Strokes gained over the last six months the iron play looks great you can get a little wild off the tee here that’s okay if you’re Justin Thomas and
The short game’s fantastic so I think the win’s coming I think it’s gonna come before the Florida swing so that means it has to come this week so 16 to one for JT and then Matt Fitzpatrick I think he’s flying under the radar I think 40
To one is is you look at some of the names around him like is Cameron Smith or Cameron young really going to win this tournament he’s never won before or some of these other names like I know Tony feno has a great history here and he’s a little further up the board I
Just think Fitzpatrick’s there’s a little disrespect there he’s driving the ball really well he’s a great putter as we know the Bugaboo with him typically is the iron play can lag behind but given where these approach shots are going to come from the mid iron section
A lot that’s where he thrives and you look at his approach numbers at this this tournament in particular and you can see that really pan out so Fitzpatrick former US Open Champion wins Big tournaments you know Signature Events things of that caliber at 40 to1 I think it’s a really nice play it’s
Funny that I had Fitzpatrick as my oneand done in the league that I’m in at Pebble Beach not didn’t go so well and JT last week at the Phoenix Open you’re picking them both this week my luck right uh all right counselor I see you’re doing it against Sam Burns we’ve
Talked about this you’re I the form is great you’re picking him to win you’re putting an outright ticket on him yeah I mean I can’t even necessarily say the form is great because I don’t have a long-term sample size for Sam Burns I mean I do I
Mean I depending on how far back you go but I just love the pop recently and I love that he’s splashed at this course before he almost gained EC 10 Strokes ball striking last week at Phoenix and by the way he’s gained with the putter appreciably with the putter over his
Last three tournaments so the putter is there like it usually is for Sam Burns but like when we see the ball striking numbers it’s like oh my gosh you know I kind of wish Sam Burns was like 25 or 26 to1 I understand why he’s 22 and in some
Markets down to to 20 to one I think that’s okay again I don’t think I’m getting the best number here you know at this point like a lot of these have been bet down including Adam Scott but I’ll say this about all three Xander schafle when you look at weighted Tia green over
The last 22 rounds again I’m using 22 rounds kind of arbitrarily it’s a small sample size most people use 20 or 24 or 16 or 50 I’m using 22 so take it for what it’s worth waited Tia green and we know how big Tia green is at Riviera
Well Scotty sheffer’s first second is Xander Schley and by the way third is Justin Thomas so there you go uh Patrick McDonald and what’s interesting is Guess Who’s fifth I I’ll share fourth with you in my long shot section because I got two long shots to give out too but the
The the person who was fifth is none other than Adam Scott who again we know has good history here as well so he’s got the recent form he’s got obviously the course history so I I like him at 33 to1 Burns is the splash play I have a
Feeling about Burns this is one of those situations where I I just really like his course fit I like that he’s done well here before and I like what I saw last week so these three I think are legit and by the way when it comes to the big
Three I don’t think we can count out Xander I’m not talking like this week if he wins because we still won’t put him there but I’m not a Xander guy but now that some of these stars have left at the top it wouldn’t shock me if five months from now we’re talking about
Xander in the same sort of conversation as war and mooy in terms of how well they’ve done this particular season yeah you know and and counselor I love betting Xander shlay it’s usually a staple uh at the top of my rankings this week I’m actually fading him I I just I
Don’t know I didn’t have a good feeling on that but I I like to see that you have him maybe I’ll I’ll take a look here after the show I do agree about Adam Scott I mean listen that the course form is Grady W here in 2020 actually
Had him that day that was a wonderful day uh when he hit that right before covid happened but he had a ta in Scottdale after he was struggling I didn’t even think he was going to make the cut and somehow he goes out and shoots what 6665 on the weekend and and
Ends up in the top 10 so and beats Justin Thomas I mean he was he was getting crushed by JT among others uh once again the varability of what can happen on the weekend but I do like Adam Scott at this number even 33 to1 with
How good his form is right now uh Patrick hlay is my top pick this week SoCal native UCLA Alum has two top fives and five top 20s in his last six years he listen he’s never he’s not like towards the top of the the Heap in terms
Of putting but if he does anything positive this week watch out because the ball striking numbers here are tremendous I mean he gains I think every time he’s been to Rivier to Riviera he has gained Strokes off the te usually pretty good on approach uh I think he
Might have turned things around a little bit at Pebble Beach after some rough weekends uh that we saw in Palm Springs and in San Diego so we’ll see I’m going with Klay I like that number at plus 2,000 on M on bmgm and also another plus
2,000 I’m doing it Max hom horse for the course a win three top fives and four top 10 in his last four here gained more than 11 shots on the greens here last year and listen he was on the wrong side of the draw on Scottdale with the with
The rain on Thursday morning and Pebble was a mess so we’re throwing out the last two weeks but I do like Max H at plus 2000 AKA 20 to1 all right it is time for our long shots category once again I looked ahead I cheated and you
Guys are on the same golfer Patrick start with you how about this what’s with Kurt kittama what what’s the what’s the Plus at plus 9,000 first let me say to Joe in the chat please don’t call me Pat um but but yes look CIA did not share with me his Pro uh
Proprietary his model but I have I have through the grae f Vine through the sources out there I have it on good authority that he ranks fourth in his model from way to T to Green so once I heard that news Kirk Kama 90 to one was a buy by byy sign and
We look at all these long shot winners yes they’re unexpected but some like Nick Taylor’s a winner wendam Clark’s a usop champion Chris Kirk has won on the PGA tour before and Kurt kyama a winner of a signature event last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational we know he
Can get it done I think 90 to1 uh is a very good price for a proven winner in in a in a long shot uh atmosphere all right seea you also like kyama you kind of you kind of hyped him up earlier any further thoughts well
First of all somebody pointed out in the chat that like with the BET Midler stuff if they some people watched the early Edge this morning and they know I also quoted in sync and we had a boy band discussion I I quoted specifically It’s Gonna be Me Only to be rivaled by
Patrick McDonald saying and he didn’t know he was doing this by by by he was saying buy but clearly everybody heard by Bye b so this has just been a boyband extravagance and I’m really proud to be a part of it I don’t have much to add to
Kurt kyama other than what he said about the API last year like it was a signature event right it was an elevated designated event whatever word uh the PGA Tour decides to use and like what does that mean it means he was doing it against great competition so I think
Kurt Kama has plenty of upside I think he flashed a little bit of it last week as well and then my other long shot winner and by the way Kurt kyama is the 90 to ones might be gone at your book He’s proba he might be 80 to1 he might
Be 75 to one all of that’s fine too it’s long enough for me to take it even if you lost some closing line value there uh bo Hustler is my other guy like he’s a guy that I just I think he has a lot of potential we just haven’t seen him
Put it all together yet this year again it’s a small sample size but I know he can be good off the I know he can be good on approach and he’s usually great with the short game I’m just waiting for that moment for him to put it all
Together and given the way this 2024 season is gone it wouldn’t shock me if it happens in the here and now well you guys know uh good good outrights uh you know I’m not the best with picking my long shots so I got to do parlays we
Know how that we know how I roll uh we’re gonna do a top 10 parlay you can find all these at DK Patrick KL who I just talked about winning and Sam Burns uh at plus 750 I think that’s pretty good value there top 20 parlay uh havin
Oer and Nikolai hoard at plus 700 hoard’s never played here nor has Oar but those guys are in very good form and hlin has the course form here three top 20s and three appearances so I feel pretty good about that one then our top finish par you ready to this is for a
Sprinkle I mean if you want to throw a unit on it good luck to you uh can’t lay top five I think he’s gonna win Adam Scott top 10 I think he’s going to be right up there he has a T2 and a T20 and he drove and puted it well in Scottdale
So hey I’ll take my chances uh at at 35 to one give me some of that uh hey go ahead counselor well I was going to say uh hoard is interesting I just want everybody to know I mean there’s only so many especially in a 70 person event so
Many first round leaders I can pick I already probably picked too many by by throwing out four there and again these are just sprinkle plays like you we not putting a bunch of money on this but hoard was one of the guys I was considering and you’re you’re right
About his form and I think he’s a really great course fit too so I I don’t think he’s seen this course at least not competitively I don’t think he’s played at Riviera before I think you mentioned that um but I don’t think that’s a really big issue when it comes to first
Round leaders anymore especially I don’t I don’t I don’t know maybe maybe it is for this particular course but somebody to consider like maybe in DFS as as as a dart throw low owned and speaking of that there was something that sites said I think it’s sites 151 or sites 51 he
Said oh sites 501 excuse me he said I’m fading Scott in DFS and picking up Scott in the top 10 Market to supplement that I just wanted to point that out for those of you that are playing both DFS and betting this is something that Mike McClure talks about as well when you
Know a guy is going to be really trendy in DFS like Adam Scott is he’s he’s going to be trendy and I put that out there for everybody to know like a lot of the people around him in that price range probably not going to be trendy so
You might want to Pivot to maybe a a Jason day for example uh fellow Australian but the point I’m making here is if you really want to get a piece of somebody but you know they’re going to be really popular in DFS and you know in
Golf DFS you want to play the game of probably fading most of the trending guys not all the trending guys but most of them then go ahead and bet them in the top 10 Market bet them in the outright Market top 20 so you have some
Like stake in it so that you take them off your DFS team but at least you you got some money coming back if they happen to have a great tournament I just thought it was a cool way to do it because I know most people these days
Are playing DFS and they’re betting and you know you don’t have to like max out in both you can kind of hedge a little bit with the betting Market outside of DFS yeah that’s a that’s a sharp one uh there counselor I like that and good
Call from sites in the chat there all right uh final thoughts here Patrick I want to ask you about Colin morawa that’s a name that we haven’t talked about on this show yet and is last two years here a second and a sixth and we
None of us brought him up in any type of bets what are your thoughts on him this weekend uh well you see I did bet him minus 110 over Max holes oh that’s right I I do like his chances I I know he has a great course history like you just
Mentioned great course fit for him a fantastic iron player and I I think the game’s trending uh in a really nice direction as is the putter you see what happens when I read the notes too early and you you kind of cheat on the test I
Was I was so focused on mroy and Sheffer I just I got ahead all right it’s time for our bold prediction segment just give me something this weekend outside of a win b or an frl uh seea I’ll start with you bold prediction anything that we’re gonna see uh at the Genesis this
Weekend uh that’s a good question is my mic messing up again by the way all right well then I’ll keep it short Tiger Woods finishes 33rd overall wow how about that’s now that’s specific all right Patrick bold prediction uh my bold prediction if we’re in the uh conversation of picking someone’s
Placement Justin Thomas finishes first hey I I don’t even know where to go with that one my bold prediction I actually think we’re GNA see a winner towards the top of the board is that really bold I mean after what we’ve seen in the first six weeks of this season
Where we’ve seen 100 to one or greater now it’s time we’re going to get a top of board winner it’s going to be Patrick kentlake I mean just just want to say that all right guys always a great show always glad to be along with you uh
Check us out early Edge tomorrow and throughout the week 10: am Eastern the host of that show was also on this show The Counselor so check that out many other good things don’t forget to like this video before you before you check out and subscribe to Sportsline just in
Case you haven’t already so for Patrick McDonald and CAD I am Eric Cohen as I always like to say let’s hit it big good luck
1 Comment
I picked theegala and n Taylor first round leaders and then doubled down on n Taylor to win the tourney. Sweet weekend