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Again happy Super Bowl Sunday it is me Steve Shermer Riding Solo currently Boston kapper I think is either running a mile and drinking beer or cheering somebody on in drinking beer I think he was talking about in one of the fantasy leagues that the loser had to run a Beer
Mile I don’t know if it was him or somebody else but he’s doing that so it is just me this morning breaking down uh one of my actually probably my favorite non- major venue on the PJ tour every single year Riviera Country Club for the 2024 Genesis Invitational uh right now
It’s still a jam-packed weekend for golf Liv wrapped up last week uh I think I did pretty well the handicap on it and unfortunately Bryson completely Bryson yesterday that was too bad uh it’s also too bad that I really wanted to bet DJ but I did not feel like getting screamed
At at the betting show about how Dustin Johnson was gonna be doing a mountains of coke allegedly from my co-host uh because I know that would have been his take but he fit a lot of the driving distance and guys have fad and hit it over
Bunkers uh I’ll talk about that a little bit as far as my batting results so far and how I maybe I got start tuning stuff out and just go my gut on some things but hey Adrian [ __ ] top 10 Bryson top 10 barely by the way John rum not
Getting a top five really hurt him hitting a cold shank on par five and missing a six-footer not getting up and down and finishing one shot out of the top five that hurts but hey came out ahead on live uh feel pretty good about where I’m at with that tour as far as
Actually trying uh to have a serious conversation about betting with that tour but PJ tour is not going well I’m going to be perfectly honest it’s not going well for me this year maybe I’m still kind of recovering from the two almost outrights I had back at the HX
And the Sony uh but positions have not been good this year I don’t know exactly what the issue is maybe I’m relying too much on the Productions from data golf as far as what their menu of the positionals are and maybe a little too sensitive about hey they don’t think
This is a good price even though I like the guy maybe I’ll go with a guy like benan who has a pretty good price for a positional uh maybe that’s my problem the fact I’m relying too much on benan uh this week but um maybe I got a little
Bit too much rabbit ears overall as far as maybe listening to what people are picking and going the other way and being too cute sometimes I do that um it’s not great I admit this I will own up when my picks aren’t great right now and uh you know hopefully I’ll be better
This next week I usually have a pretty good track record at Rivier era so hopefully things will turn around for that but uh right now the golf tournament I think is going to kick off in 15 minutes this is kind of a disaster for them uh I don’t it’s gonna be really
Close to get it in on time before the Super Bowl hopefully they decide to just keep everybody in the same pairings and just send them right back out otherwise it’s either going be a Monday finish or it’s going to finish up uh maybe after the 49ers first scoring Drive in the
First quarter so we’ll see what happens there but uh for right now so about Riviera Genesis Invitational uh once again if you are listening on Apple or Spotify thank you thank you for the download if you’re not uh if you’re watching us on YouTube please subscribe to our channel uh these previews are
Great supplements to the podcast because it’s more visual but you know make sure you still give us a download a rate and review on Spotify and apple to it really helps us out uh but if you haven’t seen this preview before uh this is more of a
Visual uh presentation here uh I will use Google Earth to break down Riviera some of my favorite holes some things to maybe look at as far as you know how the golf course is laid out some type different type of shots these guys have to uh hit and then we’re going to go
Through data golf all their free tools with that uh you know core stats history scoring everything approach shot proximity buckets what matters there what doesn’t matter there you know hopefully this is a good part of your routine for betting but as far as the field goes you know this is a signature
Event the second signature event of the pg2 season and it’s got a unique format so the last one at Pebble Beach it was 80 guys but there was no cut this one though is 80 guys and then they’re going to cut down to the top 50 I personally
Think whatever new higher form of the PG tour is going to come to existence once they figure out the stuff with the with Liv and the Saudis I think this is how it’s got to be this is a very similar cut uh format to the Masters you know
That is also top 50 in ties they have usually about 80-ish guys as well now with that one though there’s a lot of real crap at the back end of that field so it’s relatively easy to make the weekend at the master if you’re a pretty
Good player but this one though top 80 players in the PJ tour are you you know you definitely can’t have an off day the first couple of days here especially when we’re talk about the weather it’s should be pretty getable this place so you know you might see some guys if they
Get out to a slow start if you’re a top player you’re not gonna make the weekend there’s a lot of really good players you’re competing against here I I personally really like that they’re going to do this I think that is perfect I don’t feel like we really need to have
130 plus guys anymore in the PJ tour in fields in these really big events just give me the top 80 that’s all they F focus on in the broadcast anyway so why don’t we just do that but despite all the big names the biggest fish in this
Field and this is going to suck up all the oxygen in for this tournament is Tiger Woods he’s back he uh played the Hero World Challenge back in December that was his unofficial return to the PJ tour after having I think ankle surgery or something maybe leg surgery after the
Masters we all remember back in the Masters it was cold windy he gutted to get to the weekend and then he was limping around he decided to withdraw which mercifully did and then we didn’t see him again for the rest of the season but came back at the Hero World
Challenge some positives and negatives uh positives was he was one of the leaders in Strokes get off the team that week now it’s an 18 person it’s 18 or 20 person field you know how reliable really are those statistics when you’re gauging the average versus what you do
There’s not a huge sample size there but everything else looked really rusty irons didn’t look very good wasn’t really good around the green was going to putter the around the green and putting stuff that’s been kind of a Bugaboo for him uh that’s not a surprise but honestly you know he finished 17th
There was a lot of people who were very excited about his return I wasn’t really all that excited I didn’t think that swing looked very good it’s all upper body he can’t use the lower body at all I don’t know he it’s a lot of duct
Tape on him right now but he’s back unfortunately he’s never really done well in this tournament you know I mean which is surprising like obviously he has a lot of good finishes because he’s tiger effing Woods but hasn’t really been all that great here so I don’t really know a particular
Reason why a lot of the skill sets that usually are good here match what he was best at I mean he’s the best at everything but maybe temp your expectations a little bit just enjoy that he’s out there walk around but otherwise all your big names are here
Rory Scotty Jordan Speed who’s in the mix uh Justin Thomas um everybody who’s still left on the PJ tour who hasn’t taken a bunch of money uh will be a Riviera it should be an excellent tournament I love the fact that they’re going to cut down to top 50 in
Ties that’s going to add some nice Friday Intrigue um to this tournament it’s much better than what they did at Pebble Beach I’m very much looking forward to it so with that said why don’t we take our first break and then we will hit Google Earth and we’ll go
Over some of my favorite holes some things to maybe look at for rivy era this week all right we’re brought to you by draftking so if you’re looking to for a super offer for super B 58 draftking Sportsbook has you covered new customers can bet on the big game and turn five
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The high level uh this is a will this is a George Thomas and William Bell design it opened in 1927 and just a couple things to maybe note from it so let’s zoom out a little bit obviously this is in Los Angeles California right over here this is where
Los Angeles Country Club is allegedly the worst Us open venue in history because God forbid if guys make really good shots word if you make a really bad shot you get punished but one thing I also want to point out too you might not know it from the broadcast but Riviera
Really close to the ocean much closer I think I may realized before I started doing but very in close proximity to the ocean there I mean obviously you have a lot of really good homes that really mask where it is but I remember this is why I think
The win can really get up there a couple years ago I want to say 2021 the year maxom won you had those Duro wins where uh they came off the here and they got 70 M Power WIS it’s stop play I Remember Keegan Bradley actually putting off the
Green on 10 and everyone said well P’s a bad putter which he was back then but it was really because of the wind and the greens just got completely out of control but that’s something to monitor you know this is a golf course that if
We get a lot of wind here it can make the the greens play very unplayable but uh George Thomas William Bell design open 19 1927 it’s been relatively unaltered over the years uh there’s been a uh some bunker Renovations done by Corin khaw I think on number 10 over
Here there are some tweaks the greens that Tom fio has done over the years as well we’ll talk about one of those holes that he did um in a little bit but you know so this is set in the Basin of a canyon uh and it’s not a very interesting piece of land
It’s very small compact it’s not very wide as you can see right here not a lot of land movement at all other than just you know the bull setting that it’s in but and but George Thomas and William Bell they didn’t move a lot of land in
Order to create this they just basically look at this golf course and said okay let’s create an exceptable routing let’s use what land features we have to create movement specifically in the greens and they did a really good job this is the Premier venue on the PJ T were of the
Non- major venues um there for a lot of reasons why so let’s start with the first hole here let’s zoom in so one of the the most iconic starting holes on the PG Sher uh in just all in golf as well this is the first te 53 yard par
Five just dead straight away you got out of bounds over here but with what the club the guys using they’re not really hitting but what makes it great is you’re teeing off into the Canon you’re right next to the clubhouse here and you’re just hitting downhill it’s a very
Narrow Fairway only 30 yards wide the Fairway also runs out here this is a baranka right here uh it basically acts as kind of a deterrent towards guys hitting pulling driers so because of how far the ball goes nowadays you’re going to see guys hit a lot of three it is
Going to play this year maybe that will hit allow guys a hit driver because the ball’s not going to roll as far but you know even with three Woods because you get the prevailing uh wind off the ocean this plays mostly down wind uh in you know opal conditions you’re still going
To see guys probably run through the Fairway here but it’s still not all that penal because you got a long way to the green it’s a big green it’s a deep green um the rough is only about two inches the Ki rough will Top by that a little
Bit it can be tricky to hit out of but you know this is a very short par five uh you know if you’re in this bunker right here it makes getting up and down a little dicey but you know getting up and down from off the green here to most
Pin locations is not that difficult this is a birdie hle this is a great handshake hole George Thomas is known for these handshake holes you saw with LCC with the very getable par five opening hole there this is supposed to be what he sees golf as a nice easy introduction to your
Round and then after you get your little birdie you’re feeling confident about yourself he’s going to kick you right back in the nuts so going back the other way the second hole here this is the long par 4 second uh 471 yards plays slightly uphill and it plays slightly into the breeze if
There is a win so this can play close to 500 yards again very narrow Fairway here um you got out of bounds of the driving range over here but what makes this hole so difficult is it’s into the wind and this green is really tough well protected by bunkers this bunker right
Here is about 40 yards short of it and this is a two-tier green as well you could use technically I’ll zoom in a little bit you could use this little Hill here is a little sideboard to get funel the ball back towards the green but you’re
Going to see a lot of guys end up in this lower tier right here and trying to two putt for here up the slope to a back pin location is really dicey uh if you’re in this bunker right over here and the pins to the left you’re basically dead um and this is
Essentially again another George Thomas principal easy opening hole very typical second hole so you got basically then out a par so opening hole is basically a par four and a half this is essentially a par four and a half too very uh Hallmark George Thomas design let’s zoom
Over to the fourth green this is what I believe Ben Hogan called the finest par three in all of golf now I probably would not say the players today agree with that maybe it’s because of some green uh alterations I’ve done through the years but this is an extremely
Difficult part three this is a Redan style green slopes right to left back front to back it’s well protected by this bunker over here this is about a 20 like you know 200ish yard carry over this bunker here you got a crosswing coming down from off the canyon
Everything slopes hard right to left um you know obviously the optimal play would be hit it to you know about here and let the ball kind of trickle back to the green but with how soft things are going to be that might not be ideal either sometimes you might see guys go
For the green over on the left here they end up in this barany here um this is an extremely difficult borderline unfair if this thing is playing really firm par three uh a lot of guys complain about it every single year in the pjc for me personally um just from an entertainment
Standpoint I love when it’s featured holes uh these guys really uh get Driven Crazy by this thing you also got the fifth uh another shsh par for it’s only 434 yards but again the Fairway runs out to about 308 here there’s a you know and it’s it’s a split level Fairway this is
Uh above uh this lower Fairway here there’s also a little Mound right to the right here so you know with how far the ball goes nowadays you know the importance of angles into greens with these caliber players just really isn’t as important anymore but this is one of them where
You know if you get caught up on this little UPS slope over here you have a blind approach out to the green this green also plays really firm there’s a um a collection area down below here if you go over the green you’re not getting
Up and down here uh but these are you know this is a hole where uh guys usually pick lesson driver to keep up in this top shelf over here it uh can’ts hard from right to left as well so it’s a really difficult Fairway to hold um
Over here it’s tough Hole uh it’s it’s not going to be the most popular hole at Riviera but uh there definitely is enough quirkiness and uh difficulty to it that can definitely Drive guys nuts especially if they hit it a little long over here this is such a difficult up
And down uh over here now we have the six one of the most famous part of Threes in all of golf often duplicated and the reason why it is so popular is because and iconic is the bunker in the middle of the green it’s a small bunker but it’s in the way it
Plays downwind so if the pin is up in front here you carry a little too far you run the risk of getting this bunker you also run the risk of hitting it way over and you’re on now the wrong side of the hole if it’s if the pin’s out down
Here there’s been a lot of really interesting ways guys have tried to get up and down I know Sam Burns when he was leading in 2021 he put it way long and right here almost here the Chain Lake Fence pin was set down here got up and down one of the
Best up and downs I’ve ever seen I think that’s when I really started to get a lot of respect for Sam Burns until he blew this tournament later on when I had 101 bet on him on the back nine then I C lost a little respect for him but one of
The best holes on this golf course one of the best par 3s in golf uh very iconic often duplicated there’s one just like this at TBC San Antonio that is not quite as good but Greg Norman specifically cited this hole as a reason why he wed I think it’s number 17 there
It’s got the bunker in the middle of the Fairway I think there’s a couple other golf courses um there’s one that no laying updated world wild World of Golf when they had the bunker in the middle of green 2o but definitely one of the most iconic par
3es in all of golf the eighth hole here this is one that Tom fio did work in so over the years uh this originally was designed to be a split Fairway here uh just due to neglect it was lost I think I can’t remember exactly when he did it
But Tom Tom fio restored the split Fairway nature of it and it was supposed to basically promote strategy so back when driving distes weren’t too uh far you know going down the left was considered risky you got a bare Fairway bunker is about 280 here 297 to this bunker over here it’s a
Little more narrower you can hit in this little Ravine down here Hing down the left was a little more risky versus down the right this bunker is way down far it’s not in play it’s a little wider here but I think how the green is constructed is not quite as um it’s
Supposed to would not be quite as good of an angle to most pendal occasion problem is though and listen I’m not a greens expert by any means uh but I trust the people will say this Annie Johnson the Fred egg who actually my article this week is gonna have uh I’m
Gonna put a link of uh his Narrative of every single hole what’s great about it it’s definitely someone to check out he says that fio mangled the green so I will trust his judgment he says though this was written back in 2017 that there’s no reason to go down the left
Thing is though the last years with how far guys are going the changing strategy off the tea of this place I see a ton of guys going left because they can take both these bunkers out of play you know they end up worst case scenario they end
Up in this left rough over here they got a lot of room in front uh either run the ball up or it’s just a big uh Target to hit most guys I see at least unless the pin is somewhere else that makes you want to go down
Right most guys are hitting it left here so not a great job of Mr Tom there you got the tenth hole this is again one of the most iconic short par fours on PG we’re going to table this discussion about this hole because there’s some things in the stats especially off the
Te with strategy that I want to come back to uh with this hole so we’ll table that on the back nine though so one of the things that you hear about Riviera is the need to hit it both ways off the te and 12 and 13 is definitely a perfect
Example both of these are really demanding driving holes so you have the 12th hole here this is a la par for 479 yards you got to hit a uh fade essentially you have to hit a fade left to right here and then the very next
Hole another long par for got to hit it right to left so you hear all these comps to Augusta National they need to hit it both ways this is example right here of where especially off the T got hit a fade here you got to hit a you
Know a draw here um you have this tree over by the 13th hole short of it I sometimes you see guys if they’re in the banka over here they overcook it a little bit with their t-shot or their you know coping the trees here sometimes this tree can give them trouble it’s
Going up and down here not an easy hole at all let’s Zoom a little bit over to the 15th I know I’m I’m talking a lot about this ho there a lot of great holds there a lot of nuances about this golf course a lot of things that you’re going to see
In this golf you know see with this place I talk about so the 15th though this is the one that Victor havin has made famous for taking a different strategy off the T so this is an incredibly difficult driving hole if you play it straight it is 3:15 to the
Middle of the dog L it narrow significantly you have this Fairway bunker over here it’s about 295 is to get to if you hit this Fairway bunker you’re not getting into the green the face is too steep you don’t have enough room to clear the lip for a longer
Approach shot into it it’s about 200 yards in the you’re it’s a layup off here so incredibly difficult driving hole what hin was trying to make famous was going down the 17th and in theory it makes sense it takes out all of this trouble over here with you know hitting
To the dog leg uh you know the dog leg uh right hole long par for uh 15th here and you got all this room over here fairly wide Fairway you take this bunker out of play this is like 340 to this bunker so this is in play
Too very safe and the rough isn’t all that penal it’s not that thi you can get a good contact on the problem is though and this is where I always disagree with havin is your approach shot this is a horrible angle if you’re coming in from
This way so even if you’re in the middle of the Fairway here you’re obstructed by trees these two trees over here you’re obstruct you have to carry this fairy bunker and it’s still like 185 yards to carry and it’s all carry by the way so if you somehow
Screw up this t- shot you hit in the rough here that’s not going to work out very well for you that’s difficult green to hit there it’s still all carry here if you just don’t clip it quite as well you’re GNA end up showing this bunker
This pin is in front you’re not getting him down I think hin ended up abandoning that strategy last year I think he tried the first two rounds I think he made par and bogy and he decided just play it straight I never really like that strategy maybe he decides to bring it
Back here but that’s people what people are going to talk about this hole that’s what guys have tried to do I still think the best strategy is to just take your medicine try to avoid this Fairway bunker and play the whole straight As intended uh and then let’s go to the
18th hole one of the most iconic closing holes in all of golf is a slight dog leg right Par Four this T box is set well below the Fairway so it’s a blind uh t-shot you don’t really know where the ball is going obviously you
Want to hit a nice peeler and have the ball roll pretty far unfortunately if you hit overcook a little bit you’re going to have tree trouble obstructing your view to the green the green is set a little bit back here behind all these trees so you don’t want to miss it right
Here you also want really want to miss it l because you’re lose a lot of driving distance and it’s going to get H caught on a side Hill here and then the green Amphitheater setting it’s just it’s one of the most iconic visuals in golf for a closing
Stretch a lot of dramas happened here on the 18th hole it’s just a good closing hole so that’s Riviera Country Club I know I went a little long with the tour of it there’s just a lot of great features about this golf course a lot of
Great holes you don’t see that a lot in the pj2 where a lot of these golf courses they go to are just boring and Bland we’re GNA talk about one next week with Mexico where I’m gonna be completely honest I’m struggling to come up with how I’m gonna make the Google
Earth portion of that interesting because you’ll see it’s just not good but this has so much character the greens are just superb here just with all their little uh subtle Fe not subtle features all their all the ways they can just befuddle guys we’ll talk about that a little bit about how
Difficult these greens are which is the real one of the only true defenses this place left here um it’s just a great golf course and sorry I went a little long with it but there just so much to it that I just want to talk about which
Is going to lead to a lot of discussions about how you actually want to bet on this tournament which we’ll get to do uh right after this next commercial break uh so let’s talk about the S 58 props contest still time to get in you got
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Gcsaa uh if anyone works with the gcsaa by the way um you guys are getting a little lazy with some of this stuff uh last week I referred to the 2023 uh waste manag Fenix open stuff and he came out with last week’s a little late and a little misleading information so you
Said that waste management was the fourth straight week of Po greens and not really the case PO is a little different than Pro trivialis uh that’s why you got me though to explain this to you but uh they do have nailed it this week as far
As what it is so again Rivier country this is again the gcsaa uh PDF is is where I always start just to see if there’s anything that’s been changed year to year overall with the setup stuff like that so again George Thomas design in 1927 uh Corin khaw renovated
The bunkers in 1992 Tom fio has done several little tinkering over the years to it uh par 71 there’s only three par fives in the golf course you got number one which is a very easy par five number 11 that we didn’t go over it’s straight away but very narrow and treein very
Easy to get get your ball clanging into the the the trees there not really my favorite par five I think they really need do some tree removal on that one it seems like just a means to get to the TW stretch from 12 to 13 probably one of
The weaker holes in the golf course and then number 17 which is slightly uphill into the breeze it’s that’s a that’s also not an easy par five too that’s why it’s a par 71 7,322 yards on the scorecard on the stin meter though these greens run about 12 and a half we’ll get
Well table that we’ll get to it a little bit average green size 7500 square feet in area a little misleading some greens are absolutely huge at Riviera some greens are really tiny uh for example the par 410th very tiny green but average green size 7500 uh feet or square feet in area
This is actually the fourth uh largest Greens in the PGA Tour uh no water hazards at all on this golf course we’ll get to that a little bit top of the off to te stuff agronomy so we are back to poana California poana really fast poana
By the way runs 12 and a half in C met if this thing gets windy and dried out man these greens are really slick these guys are just really cautious and careful and nervous over these five Footers here um the collars the te’s the rough it’s a ricey grass overse but
What’s really unique about this place is the Kyu now the kikuyu that’s also Tory Pines but it was overseed back then because it just when sustained here the kakuyu actually is prevalent here they don’t oversee this one and kakuu is a very sticky grabby spongy grass it’s
Native of Africa and I forget which year it was but I think this was all rye grass at one point and for whatever reason kuuu just got into the soil at Rivier and it just took over the entire property and they haven’t removed it at all it’s just still there um but it
Makes the golf course play a little longer once the ball hits the ground this skuya really grabs it especially if it hits the rough too it’s just not going anywhere at all so even though it’s only two inches you know it’s not a very uh it’s not very
Easy rough to hit out of because it can really grab the club face it can go all over the place um even though two inch you didn’t get solid ball contact on it not kakuyu is definitely not easy you know you’re going to hear a lot about
The kakuyu this week some ch changes that have been made to the golf course so there’s been a lot of talk about number 10 we’ll talk we’ll bring that back in a little bit but uh they restored the green Contours on number 10 and number 15 as well uh that’s the uh
The par for that I talk about that halin is trying to basically uh break the code for uh the area remained the same but they just re you know restored a lot of subtle features into it I don’t know exactly what changes they made with number 10 I’m sure we’re going to find
Out but number 10 was always pretty dicey green to navigate around anyway so I can’t even imagine what they did to this and make it even more difficult um average Fairway with they say 27 yards I think this is a typo uh this is maybe
About 37 yards this is not a very I wouldn’t call it narrow Golf Course by any means I think this is a typo here it’s not 27 I mean basically just mapping where the landing zones are some of them bottleneck may be to like 20 25 yards but most of the time there’s
Usually a lot of room out there uh and then coming up it’s going to host the US Women’s Open it’s going to be the Su of the 2028 Summer Olympics we’ll see there I think it’s also going to host a US Open a men’s US Open which is gonna
Be kind of strange um it’s in the summer so it plays differently but I don’t know I don’t know how I feel about that let’s get to let’s get to scoring we’re going to do this a little different this time so usually I think I start with like
Weather or anything like that here we go and you’re G to show me the wrong screen uh hang tight everybody okay let’s go to Pastor’s old page okay start 2019 so Riviera has a lot of character to it especially with the greens and it’s one of the more difficult scoring setups on
The PJ tour in general for a lot of reason we’ll get to talking about but a lot of is very weather dependent anytime this thing is cold and firm and windy this place is an absolute nightmare especially navigating these greens it just makes it kind of almost borderline
Unput you can’t hit a green regulation it’s difficult and there’s been some really difficult uh Genesis invitation the last couple years 2019 I remember uh I was sweating in a hotel room with my pregnant wife at the time with her first child I had Justin Thomas and this is
Where I came out with a house cat uh uh nickname for him because he had a I think a three- shot League going to the final round and the win kicked up and he was absolutely useless in the final round uh very difficult scoring conditions but he just didn’t do much
All his Premier Ball striking just went away at that point JB Holmes ends up stealing it from him by one uh that tournament with really difficult scoring but again really once it you know in relatively calm conditions you know it’s not easy but the field get under par last round though extremely difficult
2020 that was uh right before covid here again another really difficult scoring uh year last round in particularly very difficult three out of the four years played overp par very firm conditions too uh Adam Scott wins it at 1100 I actually had the outright there so got a
Little Redemption there 2021 this was the one where Max hom could have closed it out on Tony feno ends up missing a really short put at 18 F they go to a playoff uh Max has maybe the up and down of the century where he was behind he
Was right next to a tree he had to basically curve his Chip Shot to get it onto the green ends up getting birdie there to extend the playoff but he had a really difficult third round this was the one I talked about earlier with the winds that were
Whipping they had to actually stop play average score that day was plus 2.4 over par so again the wi really plays uh a big factor if this thing difficult the last two years though so very soft conditions not a lot of wind and they really took apart
Riviera in 2022 especially in the second and third round here uh walking even shot at opening around 63 he shot actually shot back to back 63s he got to a huge lead I had an outr on him I was pretty nervous sweating that down the stretch you had Mor how making a charge
There cam young this was really I think his coming out party as well havin and Adam Scott were in the mix two like just a lot of really big names chasing demon he end up hanging on not a lot of wind temperatures relatively comfortable it
Really lost a lot of teeth uh in that one and the same thing kind of happened last year first couple days at Riviera pretty difficult scor but over the weekend though wind died down it was playing soft really getable conditions um you know in round three and
Four didn’t play quite as tough uh as it usually does so the weather plays a lot of uh role and what happens in this tournament if the wind is up it’s firm it can be a nightmare if it’s softer if there’s no wind if temperatures are comfortable it definitely can be getable
So let’s go to the weather and so leading up so the biggest so obviously you saw what happen at Pebble Beach well all that rain and wind they got in Pebble Beach they also got in Los Angeles Los Angeles got about 12 inches of rain a couple weeks ago so coming in
This is going to be a very soft golf course Very receptive uh you know there’s going to be some sun that might dry it out but all that moisture is still accumulating still in the soil there it’s going to play soft but for the first couple days though pretty
Perfect conditions for Riviera no wind at all Sunshine comfortable temperatures on a softer golf course you know on Friday here you got some cloud cover to keep any of the moisture in there these guys are going to play a it’s not going to be a birdie Fest by
Any means cuz it Rivier is not a birdie fuss it’s going to play pretty easy it’s going to play very receptive it’s really going to resemble a lot of that 2021 tournament especially the first couple days there which we’ll talk about what played well in tournament what didn’t
It’s a little different than some other years but that might be a tournament to refer to as far as like what types of guys expect to do well Saturday again again Comal temperatures no wind Sunday this forecast so when I was looking last night this day looked completely
Unplayable it looked like they got one of those atmospheric RI uh Rivers coming back in it was 35 to 40 m hour winds 2 and a half inches of rain and Monday didn’t look better either and actually you can see that weather system right here actually coming in overnight on
Sunday and Monday what it was last yesterday though when I was looking is all of this was rain and wind it looked like maybe we’re in our 504 Hole uh tournament which would have been an absolute disaster right now it doesn’t look like that way it’s going
To be again kind of like the other days calm no wind relatively comfortable temperatures but What’s Really Gonna matter what’s really going to determine what happens on Sunday is this this little system right here look at me weather forecast meteorologist Steve I guess you didn’t
Know that I had that in my Arsenal this is another low pressure system that’s going to be coming and into the West Coast here now yesterday it was tracking a little South and Los Angeles was getting absolutely slammed here here we’ll see so let me get this off because it’s actually
Affecting my internet but based on what the weather is going to end up being you know it might Sunday might be dicey if that thing tracks a little far south you get a lot of rain and wind that’s gonna be a pretty big disaster this place unfortunately has ruined my internet so
All right it’s starting to come back a little bit but we’ll see so what I’m planning on doing for this tournament I’m not going to worry about Sunday Monday okay first three days look absolutely ideal it looks um completely calm soft receptive I’m G to focus on guys who do perfect
And well in those conditions and then I’m just going to worry about Sunday or Monday later I just want guys to get there I’m not going try and overthink it so give me the horses to the barn let’s see if we can get them in after that
Let’s go to the course fit tool the predictive skill set chart not a tremendously helpful one but there’s a couple key things which actually leads more to a discussion about the course stats here um so off the te driving distance is about as predictive as is a
A normal golf course there’s no real correlation there La last week you saw driving distance was a little more predictive towards success of Phoenix Riviera historically not so much driv accuracy though this is way more variable does not seem to matter for a variety reasons that we get to a little
Bit but um historically doesn’t matter if you’re really accurate if you’re like a Matt coocher or a Wham Clark or a Scotty sheffler who does a little bit of both off the tea doesn’t really matter that tends to get neutralized whether you hit the Fairway or Not Here iron
Play slightly less important than the average pg2 venue but still very predictive overall not something you ignore around the green though a little bit more important than the average PG venue um that will get to in a little bit but high level lots of Mis greens with how the greens are designed there
Is a lot of undulation to them spin swells tears um it is not an easy place to get up and down from off of green here well I shouldn’t say that it’s just because of how many greens are typically missed at this place it becomes an up
And down contest and generally the guys who you know it’s it’s it can be manageable for a lot of guys and generally the guys who tend to be pretty good around the green tend to excel a little bit this way versus guys who don’t putting extremely variable here I
Think that’s just the nature of the POA I think it’s because guys have to putt very defensively here they don’t roll very well because of the POA they’re fast quick there’s a lot of undulation really close to the hole there so putting is slightly a little less
Important here if you click this toggle here you can definitely see what I mean this puts everything on an even plane really high degree of emphasis towards around the green here so why is that why don’t we take another break and then we will get to why exactly uh this
Predictive skill set chart is what it is let’s talk about Hall of Fame bets so win bigger by betting smarter this NFL season with Hall of Fame bets the for spending NL platform for parlays player props and gting game lines research every NFL NBA and soccer bet with
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Start researching start winning with Hall of Fame bets all right let’s pull this back up up let’s get to the course T table here so another very useful free tool I believe for data golf uh again they don’t pay me to pump this stuff a lot of really good stuff there definitely stuff
I look at every single week so where is R historically most difficult well off the tea there’s since 2015 there’s about like 808sh uh golf courses that they track over here is the 17th most difficult off the tea as far as the types of t- shots you have to hit
Um used to be very very difficult top 10 in difficulty last couple years though you know 12 15 18 still very difficult but not quite as difficult what it was uh in Prior years uh approach play we’ll get to a little bit about PJ tour average as far as difficulty around the
Green a little easier than PJ tour um average and putting top five one of the toughest places to putt app we’ll table that discussion let’s focus off the because there’s a lot of interesting I think things off the tea here to talk about so look at the driving stats and this is
Everything they have since 2015 let’s go value let’s talk about driving distance first so what I mentioned earlier there’s a lot of really difficult t- shots here a lot of ways you have to move the ball uh with a t-shot hit the Fairway what I no is doing it though is
Tends to be a little fade biased I feel with the t-shots but regardless so you got to move the ball both ways there’s critical t-shots where hit right to left shot critical t-shots hit left to right shot but look at where the driving distances used to be back to about 2019 low low
280s now know this was guys are tiptoeing around the place trying to hit the middle of the dog leg avoid those Fairway bunkers play a little more positional golf you know it it just very short driving distances but check out what happens in 2020 average driving distance jumps up
To 290 2021 about 294 2022 294 4.4 2023 2 94.5 now part of this is just an advancement of Technology guys are hitting the ball longer the ball goes longer but just advancements in technology does not explain a 12 yard jump in like seven years eight eight
Years or especially it does not explain a 16 yard jump since 2019 this is a change in strategy and you can also see it with the driving accuracy rates even with guys less than driver for I think a higher part between you know before 2019 only only a 56% is
Dver percentage and then starting 2020 three straight years of sub 50% driving accuracy rates fit just creeping over that last year 50.3 this is a change in strategy at this place and guys are deciding that maybe because they’re looking at the fact that it’s difficult to hit Fairways anyways at this place
Just hit it as far as you can and worry about it later and what further really reinforces this point and this is probably what they’re looking at is this mis Fairway metric this column right here this represents the average difference in your score between guys who hit approach shots from the Fairway
And guys who miss a fairway and you’ll notice it’s about a little under a quarter stroke difference in your score between if you hit a fairway Riviera versus if you miss a fairway now there’s a certain degree of penalty there’s always a degree of penalty if you miss a fairway but at
Rivier in particular it is actually the least penal place to miss a fairway at between the difference between what your score would be at Riviera on a ho if you miss a fairway versus if you’re in the Fairway and it’s always been like that you know it’s always been you know back
In 2015 37th out of 38th 2019 the easiest 35 over 35 or not the easiest but like the least penal again last in 2020 second to last in 2021 so maybe these guys figured out that hey even if I’m hitting less than driver off the te try and play positional
Golf it’s still not a big difference between me missing a fairway and me Miss hitting a fairway I’m sacrificing all this distance I’m way farther back I’m not hitting Fairways at a high clip anyways why just pull driver and rip it and see what happens and that appears
Like what’s been happening the last four years or so so it is a conscious decision I feel like with these players that I’m just going to pull driver case in point let’s actually pull back Google Earth here let’s actually talk about number 10 now because this is very pertinent to
This discussion so short par4 315 yards I don’t have the heat map in my article anymore but I used to have it basically what was guys the optimal strategy was I think like 10 years ago you would see guys lay up short of this cross bunker
About 265 here and try to hit a wedge in well that wedge shot is definitely not a guarantee it is a extremely narrow green here heavily protected by bunkers on all sides still not an easy up and down so what you see guys doing now is is they just
Blast it as far as they can here they pull driver it doesn’t matter where it goes well it kind of matters optimally you want to end up on this left side of the hole over here because then even if you miss the Fairway you can at least
Chip back towards this bottom tier right here try and two putut get your par get out of there at that point um even if you’re in this left bunker over here the green slopes hard from right to left now that might not be the case now but if
You missing this bunker over here getting up and down from this left bunker you at least have the slope of the green helping you to help maybe not get it too far past the hole not a bad result there the only place where you really can’t miss here can’t miss right
You have absolutely no room with this green and it slopes hard from right to left you see a lot of guys even with this bunker over here go bunker to Bunker if you’re in this back bunker with how hard it slopes from Back to Front that’s a no no as well that’s the
Only place you really can’t miss but guys have decided on number 10 that except for Justin Thomas who still lays up for whatever reason season so this area here two very success guys are just going to pull driver and that seems like a prevailing theme throughout the entire
Golf course so I just wanted to point that as an example of one poll in particular that it doesn’t matter anymore about playing positional golf these guys have figured out based on the data hit it as far as you can so this has turned to a very driver heavy golf
Course for the most part um what dampens that is not at altitude and the kako you can play kind of sticky and once it hits the rough the ball stops but fairly hot fairly longer driving distances overall at Rivier right now some other things too again with this rough penalty same
Thing not a whole lot of difference between your score and the hole between if you’re in the rougher in the Fairway I think a lot of this has to do with how the green so why is that why is there you know not a lot of penalty why are
Guys still missing greens at high rates uh I think just had has to do with the greens um even though the day doesn’t suggest otherwise they’re not easy approach shots especially getting to key pin locations with the spines and How firm it can be and the wind and um you
Know even if you’re in the Fairway hitting the green regulation or getting even close to the hole is still no guarantee um you know you see guys three putt a lot you guys see not guys’s not hitting a lot of putts there if you miss
A green you can get up and down you know it’s there’s not a big difference between missing a fairway or not and your next approach shot uh and then peles no water hazard on the golf course one of the lowest penalty rates on the PJ tour I think there’s a couple plac
Where you hit it out of bounds possibly in the baranka you might be able on eight might be on unplayable lie but otherwise though uh very few opportunities are actually Cur in penalty stroke here so that’s driving here uh let’s talk about the approach uh stats so one of the
Again like I just mentioned one of the lowest green regulation rates on the PJ tour uh only 55.5% it is not only the uh six lowest rate on the PJ tour uh of all of courses in 2015 non- major venues the only one lower is uh Firestone which
They no longer play so if current active pg2 golf courses um in the rotation this is historically been the lowest green regulation of non- Majors uh low 50s in some years you know this got the 57% because a little more softer conditions no wind but still like these are not
High green regulation Race by any means as far as the difficulty of the approach shots though know slightly harder from under 150 slightly over from 150 I don’t know exactly how dat golf is capturing and measuring this metric I’ve read through it and I’m still kind of
Confused maybe it’s because of the fact that these are Big greens that they feel like based on the actual type of shot they have to hit is relatively easy now maybe they’re not factoring in if it’s firm or windy or um maybe the difficulty of hitting Pro Kyu
Because these are difficult hit Fairways I don’t know but they at least say it’s not tremendously difficult approach shots it’s far more difficult the the t- shot seems to be much more demanding than the average P Golf Course than the approach shots uh around the green here so again slightly easier than the
Average P golfers mostly because of the rough seems like it’s fairly if you’re going to miss a green a Rivera you want to be in the rough getting up and down is at least difficulty wise a lot less difficult than the average P Golf Course where you don’t want to be though don’t
Be in a bunker these bunkers are well placed where pins are set if you are hidden into the wrong bunker you’re not getting up and down and also because of how much undulation and character these greens are if you’re in a bunker like trying to get to the upper tier or NE
Ating a spine or um it’s just not easy to get the ball close to the hole and these bunkers just how they’re shaped very difficult get up out of there so a couple examples here uh let’s actually go to this fried egg column here let’s pull it up
So where’s the picture oh don’t do this to me number 10 so let’s go to the green bunker here so you can see with number 10 here this is from Andy Johnson’s Friday column not a lot of green to work with hard sloping right to left green you missing this bunker you’re not
Getting up and down you also can see that too in hole number 16 that’s another par three where again see how steep these the face of these bunkers are and see how unul these greens are especially with this pin that’s uh it’s in the front here so
Again you don’t have a lot of room if this pins in the back you got to carry it over a tier so you got to get it over the face you carry it all the way the back these just how the greens are shaped and if you’re in a bunker it’s
Not easy up and down from these things so if you’re gonna miss missing the rough do not miss in a bunker uh I guess that’s my amateur advice to these Pros who probably don’t need it but um and then putting wise so again like I mentioned one of the
Hardest greens to putt on in the PG tour so some of it has to do with the poana all the California poana golf courses are one of the most difficult to put on in the PJ tour but also just how they’re contoured and shaped um the and how fast
They run these things are absolutely slippery and glass when these things are running pretty quick especially when it’s windy um just not very easy six harest from putts under five feet fifth harest from putts 515 feet um over 15 feet only 21st but look at the last like six years
Five years or so top 10 in difficulty I don’t know if they changed some greens or not maybe it’s just weather conditions but just overall not a fun place to putt I can’t imagine my co-host uh having success at Riviera based on these guys struggling too let’s close it
Out with what actually matters in tournament so we talked about with so what we talk about so far we talked about with the predictive skill set chart how no emphasis really on driving accuracy driving distance is a little more um variable as far as skill set but we
Saw over the last couple years or so there’s been a huge emphasis on just blasting as far as you can without regard where it’s going iron play slightly less important um around the green very important and predictive and potting not so important and actually this skill set
Chart at least the last couple years or so kind of reflects what the projective skill set charts suggest as far as what’s actually important towards separating yourself in term of what you do versus what skills I love this unfortunately it’s not quite as correlated as other ones but you can see in
2021 so off the te which is generally driven in Tern by how many Fairways you hit not nearly as correlated with total Strokes gain as the average P Revenue because and you can see here a huge emphasis more than average on how far you hit it towards how you do in off the
Te that week and way way less than how many Fairways like a huge dis disproportionate amount and usually this is uh inverted see this black dot right here on accuracy this black on distance right here usually how many Fairways you hit is way more indicative how you do
Off the tea in that metric every week here is the complete inverse guys who just blasting as far as they can in tournament do the best in stroking off the te even though it’s harder to separate yourself because you’re not hit a lot of Fairways in general iron play way less predictive in
2021 towards your in or not predictive towards way it’s way less impactful towards your total shks gain in 2021 versus what you actually did uh around the green though that’s where you saw essentially turn an up and down contest I mean it was 54% green regulation rate
Guys get up and down it was windy firm and putting it was less impactful on your overall uh stros game compared to other uh places let’s skip 2022 say that 2023 you get a kind of a similar story as you did in 2021 again off the te not
Quite as important as it is the PG venue as far as separating yourself again you see the huge disproportionate uh split between how far you hit it versus how many Fair Rays you hit towards how you did in that metric of the week a huge de emphasis in hien Iron play overall
Because guys just miss a lot of greens um they’re all kind of get up and down with the same place anyways again turns into a bit of an up and down contest around the green play is a lot more impactful towards separating yourself and contributing to your total strok
Gain at the end of the leaderboard than what uh it usually P toour venue not quite as impactful for putting here’s the thing though these are these feature tournaments with a lot of bad weather though I mentioned a lot of the wind that happen in 2021 especially on the
Weekend uh 2023 the first couple rounds I think had some bad weather over the weekend definitely got more benign so I’d like to I wish I could see what this was over uh the last couple rounds let’s go to 2022 though because the weather that week at least the first couple
Rounds um are probably going to resemble a lot we’re going to see at least the first three rounds here so again no surprise off the team not quite as important as far as subing yourself at uh this particular Genesis Invitational versus what it was uh what usually is PJ
Venue again you see uh it’s more important to hit it far than hit Fairways here but the split is not quite as Extreme as what it is when years with the weather is pretty bad that’s interesting to note is it just a one-off I don’t know still not quite as important toward separating
Yourself with how you did with your irons that week but it’s way closer to the pg2 average in 2022 which had similar weather conditions what we’re going to have this year Golf Course played soft and calm in 2022 and all of a sudden guys could generally fire pin
And that’s a little more impactful towards your total strame than the average venue that’s interesting to know you know when we looked at 2021 2023 I’ll just pull that back up here you see huge shifts where it’s not as impactful especially last year that’s interesting to maybe to note around the
Greenen obviously still important because low green regulation rates although the green regulation rate was still fairly high in comparison to other years still huge emphasis there putting was a little more important though those last two years I mentioned it’s a little less powerful towards your to chain here was actually a little more
Impactful I think it indicates that it was just a little more getable golf course so I think if you’re someone who has a model that I don’t do traditional models I kind of just look at stuff from a high level but if you’re someone who does a traditional model you wait things
Certain ways I would wait iron play a little more important than what you usually do because of the weather conditions I think guys are going to be able to fire at pins it’s going to play soft um yeah I I it’s I think that’s going to matter a little more this tournament so
Maybe put a little more weight there um otherwise though distance is still very important at this place especially because it’s going to play So Soft the f is going to play soft the ball’s not going to roll out that’s still very important so definitely weight distance more than accuracy for at least in
Tournament stuff um than you usually do I mean obviously it’s more predictive anyway so heavily weight distance heavily weight around the green stuff maybe wait a little potting a little more um but I think the 2022 tournament at least first three rounds is definitely one to refer to as far as
How guys actually did how they were able to separate themselves I think the key difference is what I just mentioned is that iron play usually most years when it’s bad weather conditions at Riviera not quite as impactful towards subing with the leaderboard here though I mean
You can kind of see with the top of the leaderboard here top five here let’s give the ranks Neiman was first in shok approach the week Mora was only 26 but he’s a god with his irons premium iron player cam young was ninth Adam Scott was fourth hobin was third skot sheeper
Was fifth so top of the lead top of the lead were right there the guys who had their irons the best were able to uh separate themselves a little more than the field I think that’s notable um versus what you do last year you know Riviera here I mean Rah is still number
One but there’s still a little more variance well I guess that doesn’t prove my case maybe just ignore what I just said but uh let’s talk by the approach out distribution chart as well uh so like last week this was a test between 150 and 20 at Phoenix it was a test between
150 and 200 same thing again there’s gonna be test between 150 and 200 disproportionate amount of shots between 150 200 this tourament slightly more from over 200 than what there was last week at Scottsdale uh a lot less than what there was under 150 I would probably suggest again that because the
Fairway is going to play pretty soft it’s going to play a little longer these proxim buckets are probably going to skew it a little longer so again probably the same types of approach shots that you relied upon last week uh to handicap Phoenix rely upon it
Again for this one very similar so all right um that is it let me get rid of this and go back to the single for thank you very much for joining me I know that Scott sales going on right now you’re probably watching that uh it’s Super Bowl Sunday you’re getting all your
Plans together but have a very good Super Bowl Sunday have a very fun and safe one uh hopefully all your bets go well hopefully my bets go well uh if you’re sweating the Phoenix Open stuff hopefully that goes well for you too so with that uh good luck with everything
And we will see you on Tuesday
