Pat Mayo and Geoff Fienberg preview the course and run through the odds while making their 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Picks and recapping the 2024 American Express.
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SHOW INDEX
00:00 Intro
1:38 American Express Recap
31:49 Farmers
40:35 Top Odds
56:22 50+
1:16:58 Quick Picks
1:19:06 One and Done
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There’s a lot of fear in golf Canada that that could be done which would be really bad well time to get really bad time to get back on the export a open get Sig get sigs back into the mix yeah they gotta change sigs gambling I guess
They gotta booze they gotta do something you’re right we gotta we got to let booze back in the game experence Batman experience Batman Experience bman experience experience welcome to the pat Mayo experience Farmers Insurance open picks one and done breakdown plus a recap of the heartbreaking American Express depending on who you bet in those circumstances and since basically no one bet fuzzy dlap then you probably had a heartbreak at the American Express
Reminder to everyone out there this tournament starts on Wednesday this week not Thursday Wednesday concludes on Saturday Saturday so keep that in mind when you join the listeners League which is now available down in the description it’s only 2,000 spots this week because it’s it’s happened the past few years
Where people just forget this tournament starts on Wednesday they go to join on Wednesday the tournament is already started and then we barely get it filled so I just shrunk it so spots are going to be at a premium this week 2,000 spots three max entry $15 to play Boom go down
In the description and go join right now smash the like and sub to the channel well you are here and there’s one more day to get into the Tambo giveaway if you sign up at shipit nation.com right now and use code Mayo you’ll be thrown
Into a draw to get a free year of their PGA content so I suggest that you go do that and oh yeah brand new fantasy national.com that switch is going to be flicked very soon I did the walkthr on the new version as I was beta testing it
All at the same time everything seems to be working moose is currently importing everyone’s custom modelings over to the new system so fantasy national.com brand new tools on the way very soon plus a complete redesign well not a complete redesign but it just looks a whole lot
Sharper and moves a whole lot faster so fantasy national.com Mayo Jeff I threw this out on Twitter and it didn’t make me feel bad but it did make me re-evaluate everything that’s going on Nick Dunlap 500 to1 a guy you mentioned on the show last week you were like the only person
In the universe to bring this guy up uh ends up winning 20-year-old Amer wins first time since Phil Mickelson on the PGA tour and Amer has won that was in 1991 but he missed a short birdie putt on I want to say it was like 14 n maybe
It was 12 whatever it was and I have Sam Burns at 35 to1 and I’m like yes here we go I’m just actively rooting against the best story in golf in a very long time because I want to hit my bet now obviously I didn’t hit my bet a bunch of
People had Bez they didn’t hit their bet Paula Justin Thomas they didn’t hit their bet d Lop comes through just making some knee knockers the entire day had like two bad holes I mean realist realistically one really bad hole and one really bad chip on a power five but
Dude was great uh I can’t believe he held up under the pressure yeah that one stings I don’t know what Sam Burns finished but for guys like me who had sah benan and I’m just calling Sam Burns second place like I’m calling it so it’s three in a row
Second place I also I had cam young Pat so when he was up a touchdown on Friday I was dumb enough to think I I have that one also not a good place but we’re going to keep firing we’re going to get back in that batters box uh we’re going
To swing away we are going to miss again it sucks being on the wrong side of History like it sucks in sports when you make a bet that ends up being on the wrong wrong side of something like historical that’s going to be referenced that’s going to be put
In our face a lot as golf fans there is truly nothing worse there is nothing worse I’m GNA see this highlight assuming this kid is more than half decent for a long time in the same way that Phil although they wanted to ignore it existed for a little bit um and the
Same way that that Phil story is always part of lore so I hate I’m H like I hate losing a bet but I hate that it’s going to be a like we’ll lose a bet I’ll lose a bet at the Heritage I’ll never be reminded of it
Again unless I’m watching on the weekend and five years from now and they show the Highlight in a moment of Classic Heritage we’re GNA see this forever so I’m GNA be reminded of it forever it’s interesting so I thought thought Burns kind of had the best
Strategy on Sunday and I don’t know what was going through his mind maybe he just got crossed up but the PIN was on 17 on the on the island green was located on the right hand side and and I was getting frustrated with Burns especially on the front nine like he was just
Taking the easy way out on every hole like he wasn’t firing at pins he was just playing it to the safest part possible and putting it to an inch every single time he just he barely missed a few Birdie putts on the front then he start to get going and he just started
To be lights out from basically 15 ft and in and then on 17 like he he plays this cut starting at left like to D to get back towards the hole and he just overcut it and it went in and I’m just like man like what are you doing just
Hit it to the center of the green put all the pressure on the 20-year-old guy it’s almost like and I think JT fell into this too and I mean I don’t know what was going through their heads throughout the course of the day but it felt
Like early on JT felt like he he was he was behind by four strokes to start the day so he had to make a move but it felt like he tried to get overly aggressive to try to you know rattle th laap and that didn’t work and he just ended up
Hitting the water twice on the front nine or in the first like 10 holes whatever it was but Burns was just like yeah I’ll hit my greens and regulation I’ll T put two putt for per take some easy birdies when they come my way and
Make this guy actually go out and see if he’ll melt down a little bit and then it felt like when they got to 17 Burns is like all right it’s time now I’m going to stick some pressure on this kid just blew it it was horrible I don’t know Burn’s a gamer
Burn’s a killer uh there really wasn’t a moment I thought he would lose to the kid like in my head I’m like you’re just a you’re a rider cupper for [ __ ] sakes and a guy who’s won he has six wins like this shouldn’t be an issue game I bet
Sam when I bet Sam Burns It’s like because you just know the guy is a gamer he wants to if he was playing you or I he’d just want to beat us by 50 150 like that’s the impression I get from him is he’s like a throat stomper when he shows
Up at like shittier events he just is there to embarrass people not even have a good time um I was going to come on here if he won because it was going through my mind that it’s really nice to back someone who can putt for once because
You feel very good about it and I mean the putting wasn’t the problem for Sam Burns he puted very well but then yeah I mean I didn’t really I I I guess I get what he was doing on 18 when he went into the water again he’s like well now
I need to make birdie if I don’t make like he needed a birdie and Dunlap needed a bogey in order to force a playoff and Baden Hout would have been in it as well so I get taking the super aggressive line to set yourself up to
Try to attack that pin and 17 on tilt you’re on tilt too but like you had now you have to press because you’re out of it he almost made that super long bogey putt on 17 as well which would have been crazy yeah you had to press while on
Tilt that leads to the water um yeah geez everything else nice week of you know had a lot of guys felt like in the running good positions feel like I’m I’m seeing it also like with Burns and an I bet them and they were like late bets it’s
Part of me saying I don’t need to rush into anything don’t need to rush into anything just let the week let the uh Bita she goes by now yeah but this is always going to be the advantage currently as it’s currently structured that PGA has overlive is
Stories like this and I think that we pointed to that we were talking about magic felt like it wasn’t for sale Pat it now I don’t know like it maybe it’s because there was a football game on that I didn’t feel like raning about the magic or since John ROM left like truly
It feels to me like I don’t know does feel like the magic is actually totally for [ __ ] sale despite yesterday well so far this season we’ve had a 125 to1 winner a 500 to1 winner and a 500 to1 winner so that’s a lot of fun everyone’s
Hitting all their bets that I can tell you yeah no and there’s a lot of people who have at least two second places because it’s been very popular picks you know coming up short like guys that people are uh group thinking on right there in the end right last week was
Funny it was Keegan and Ben on this one I don’t know how many People BET JT props to Paul I certainly wasn’t thinking about that and even for the Dunlop shout out like yes this is an outright betting show yes that was the part of the show
Where we are naming names yes if I was insane and I well if I was the most insane and I did what I did last week I would probably be coming on here saying I won that’s a win give me credit it doesn’t matter if I didn’t bet it um but
I’m not that person I not that person we know how that person would have reacted to it but in true sincerity I was just mentioning him like like to gol fans like keep an eye it’s fun sponsors exemption not one moment not one moment I didn’t consider it didn’t give a [ __ ]
Credit to everyone couple people put a few bucks on them um there was a guy he tweeted me that he had bet it because he heard you talk about it put 10 bucks on it at 500 to1 and he cashed out on Saturday for 140 bucks that’s tough it’s
A tough beat that is so tough I mean why bet it and then if it’s there why cash it out even if it feels impossible I don’t know like I because I said I didn’t think I never thought he was gonna win until Splash like I didn’t
Think it it mattered till till Burns went wide right it was a day of wide right then when you cash out I mean that guy can never how do you put this I don’t know cashing out to my understanding when you cash out they create data points on you which just scream
Sucker so maybe you and you’re like cash outs get worse because I’ve seen situations where friends of mine one who likes to cash out one who never cashes out had the exact same bet and their offers were drastically different I’m not talking about yesterday I’m talking
About in the past with with golf so just uh know every time you cash out you’re labeled a sucker I think on the system unless it’s something super special I looked at it uh I I had never really considered doing it because I looked at
The Burns b and even when he was down by a shot they were giving me 900 they were giving me like 12 to one on his win yeah it would have been a very nice payday obviously uh and then when he took the lead they were giving me like 16 to one
But I felt the same way that you did just like the entire day I I wasn’t really stressed out I was in my mind thinking Burns got this like this is fine yeah and maybe it’s just so hyperfocused on the football that even with the ticket golf was still like a side experience
Uh yeah I don’t know hasn’t set in but it’s it’s GNA set in cuz I’m going to realize like I got to make deposits and that’s no fun and I haven’t been cashing out from golf and I feel like I should have caught something but it’s cruel
It’s cruel gotta get off the mat I’m GNA keep swinging here though Pat I promise and I’ve made no swings yet I hear you’ve made a few so interested I told you I had bet on three guys I’ve actually bet on four guys now that I
Went and looked at because I saw one of the guys numbers just crash in real time at draftking Sportsbook while you were talking and I was like oh I better go bet him at my place now before crash then already met him is he a good player
Yes he is it’s Min Wy oh yeah okay cuz I saw big the I saw the biggest big okay now may up do something yeah he’s still he’s still uh I can still catch a uh Philip Rivers a nice one okay yeah and that dra I mean yeah you can catch that
One if you wanted Oar he’s 21 enhanced at Philip Rivers right now he’s 20 at drafting sports book so we drop from 18 how do you know like you know feinberg’s in a mut and he’s just gonna just play his babies like what’s going on here
Spoken I bet Oar too oh yeah feinberg’s in trouble he just you know yeah how does fber get off the mat he just goes to his guys even if they’re babies even if they happen to be babies the question is though Pat there’s like no ROM just’s
No raw because in the past we’d come to Tory Pines and I would literally say it’s not a US Open but you’re betting like good players like your player profile us op C props to you luk list monster um point being is do this new world and
All these underdogs like should I I would never pay attention to the back sometimes regularly but especially at a major championship venue am I supposed to like give it respect or is it still like [ __ ] that no I think that you should because we saw homo won at 25 hit
That one last year that was really nice Hit List the year before at 90 to1 I mean Stallings won this at 200 to1 doings almost won it again the next year when Jason day won that playoff I remember that vividly cuz I had JB Holmes and Gary Woodland in that playoff
At you know pretty deep odds like guys can make runs here this is a hard course which the better players like to uh to quote the Macho Man the cream Rises to the top yeah but you can make a few putts along the way like there’s no
Reason Patrick Reed should have ever won this tournament like that was mind-boggling you just never see that skill set but even Lehman won at 80 I think you that one the leean was crazy that was he was all over the map and he just hit everything
Yeah so that is a you’re right it’s the Jason days um the good players yeah my card will be good players I’m swinging with good players I’m getting off the mat Conference Championship weekend Wednesday through Saturday good good players or my guys I’m not [ __ ] around anymore that being
Said you know I don’t know like benan wasn’t my guy I like got there but okay just talking it through I’m a mess I’m a mess I’m probably in better shape than uh than Paul but I just want to say p in this city that those bills they live for
Real like I I stopped by a McDonald’s last night cuz I was out watching the game and you know the nerves of the game like I didn’t even eat so was hungry after and the M my local McDonald’s you’d have thought the Leafs just got eliminated ated in the playoffs like
It’s real here so there’s just an aura around around an aura around we’ll save it for the spread pick show tomorrow when we had cuss on the line but I actually think it worked out better for the bills this way that they missed the field goal and that was that rather than
Them making the field goal and Kansas City just marching down the field and scoring easily yeah easily um fair oh yeah tomorrow we do it all have fun anything else from the American Express uh it seemed like the coverage was a little bit better this year at some of
The other courses although when I turned into the main feed before they actually went to the Golf Channel it was just a it was a featured group three ball like they and Scotty Sheffer for reasons unknown because he wasn’t really even in the tournament but it was just those
Three guys and Scotty Sheffer that’s all they were showing and I and people were complaining about how terrible the coverage was that you had to pay for the ear like to to watch the early part of the final round even to watch the leaders you had to pay for ESPN Plus or
TSN plus up here in order to watch it before they actually kicked over to the actual coverage on Golf Channel which is kind of crazy that we didn’t pick up the leaders till you know whole five or six whatever it was but the coverage was
Just so bad at the same time I was watching the Lions and Bucks game while I was just streaming the serious radio through the PGA app which is completely free like I highly recommend streaming the serus feed like when you’re like you’re on the go or you’re trying to
Watch something else yeah you you get more coverage on that than you do on any of the feeds you get way more insight also like you mentioning Burns playing it safe on Sunday but listening to a lot of the early Burns round on radio Pat it
Did seem like for whatever reason like a little bit of a downhill eye or in a bit of a Swale like his driving just wasn’t totally on point so I don’t know they made it seem like they were just the littlest things that you know made him
Not able to go full attack which felt like maybe that’s my perception it kept happening but the radio is it’s just truly fabulous um I in in a younger life I probably would have been One of These Guys these young kids with piss and vinegar like just screaming about the
Tracking or the the TV but I don’t MX is just so like it’s so ingrained in me I said it last week I like the Zurich more than the MX and dinner time on Saturday I’m a Zurich like give me the Zurich I mean that I’m also into different things
I’m sad there’s no match play to me like me and my we play Team golf that sort of format not team golf but like R the pairing golf team pairing golf is like real that’s a format I think that’s a legit event that people hate I think I
Like it more I mean that it would be I I like like the American Express and I put this out because I saw the PGA Tour Twitter feed put out the shot from the rocks that duffner hit and almost Jarred it uh in the year in 2016 but Chris Kirk
Had that same shot yesterday and just beep dunk back into the water see did you happen to see the shot tracker for SEI wo on 17 Sunday so yeah yeah when he was in the rocks and then he hit it no feet then to 5 feet I was only tracking
That cuz I was curious how long the leaders are having to wait on the team or when I can flip back to it from football or something so I I I’ll ask Tambo tomorrow but uh I got knocked out of a bunch of tour like from the like I
Was like not Min cashing but like you know pretty well into the money in some of these like single entries and thre Maxes then because I had Burns and then Burns melted down I dropped out of two of them and stuck in the 250 by a hair
Which was really nice and get most of your money back for the week but Tambo was in first he was winning 20K and he had Burns and SE woo on that team he ended up coming third he was up by like 50 points too listen that
Sucks that guy though I don’t even know because you know sometimes you get caught on the 4u channel of your feed and it’s like you don’t know maybe this tweets from seven days ago where Tambo won like 80k or 100K or 20K or 200k or 70k chop this chop that the guy
Is I’m I don’t know is he he’s better than anyone I think well I don’t know about that but he did win $67,000 Saturday night in the ners and Packers Showdown contest of course yeah of course uh no surprise do you know hom for this event
Pat actually I want to on those like early Advance repeats there was 25s out there oh was it really I wish I I wish I would have seen that and bet it yeah right makes you feel silly but also like stare those down sometimes you obviously
Found the feno one that you played but sometimes yeah there are there are nice things out there before we get into it I just want to make note I don’t know if you saw you probably saw that Phil and Callaway are done and Lexi and Bridgestone are done um two obviously I
Didn’t see that one but sure I’ll take your word for it no I don’t mean to compare them the fact that I even had to say them in what felt like in the same breath felt kind of silly as it was coming out of my mouth but at the same
Time it’s just another example to me of they’re just they I’m not saying they ain’t worth [ __ ] but like the gig is up they’ve caught on they’ve caught on like it’s just there’s just no there’s like little to no return from well I’m sure that there is return for it but we’ve
Talked about the different ways that you can go about it I mean it’s no different than even people in our space where you know you can see like just take how draftking spends their money for example versus somewhere like prize pick spends their money or Underdog spends their
Money that you can pay Jamie Fox or your B MGM uh you pay Jamie Fox $10 million to Star and all these commercials that you can air during the Super Bowl is that or or even during football or whatever it is any sporting event and getting people to become aware of your
Book you’re buying some Prestige by having Jamie Fox attached to it he’s a very notable celebrity people know who Jamie Fox is but you have to spend all that money in order to do it PL to produce the commercial to pay him and then actually buy the time is it worth
Doing that or taking $50,000 and going to Tik Tok and be like hey here’s an affiliate Link in 500 bucks fire away like what do you think you get more return for it might be the Tik Tok thing I’m crazy enough and maybe I’m like not
Deep into it but like enough into the space where I think it is option b it’s just overwhelm those people who have audiences who have loyal and engaged audiences um versus a Jamie Fox commercial that kind of plays like a fart in the wind good luck on your
Parlay though pal well I do appreciate that I now know that I can play blackjacket funerals but other than that I did want to bring up that defer thing though because I I put it out uh I quote tweeted it that it’s weird when you look back at different moments in
Your life to say that like things changed when certain things happen that was that duffner chip and then him going on to win the American Express beating Ling m in the playoff set off a weird chain reaction of events in my life that I don’t know what would have
Happened if Jason duffner didn’t win that event so duffner wins that event we both hit the 40 to1 on that that’s awesome we have the extra money in the account and we bet will it I bet him at 125 to one and put more money on it than
I would have because I was flush with cash in my gambling account at that point Willet ends up winning the Masters so I end up winning 15,000 bucks but also in conjunction with that because both you and I had been talking about Willet for three months everyone kind of
Wins on Willl it the show like sees three times as many Subs the views go way up like it really did make the show it put like Rocket Fuel onto our show like becoming more noteworthy and popular and people would tune into it every single week and but because I had
That my wife and I were weirdly we were trying to figure out what we wanted to do we wanted put a down payment on a condo cuz we were living in an apartment but we were also getting married later that year later in 2017 uh so we had to start thinking
About like budgeting for the wedding and all that so we had this money Sav for a down payment and we didn’t know the extent of what we could do for our wedding we knew where we wanted to have it we knew how much it was going to cost
And we just legit couldn’t afford it so we kind of had to pick did we want to buy a place or did we want to have the wedding that we wanted to have and it looked like it was leaning towards the wedding that we wanted to have then all
Of a sudden I have this like found 50 $1,000 that it made both things possible and without that like I’m probably not sitting here right now it’s funny to think that something as innocuous as a d Jason duffner chip on the 17th hole at PGA West could change my life so
Drastically I like get a little emotional as you just recount it and you tell it back you know you tell it forwards but with the um you know the hindsight of seeing it how it played out backwards it’s it’s crazy timing is everything I don’t know luck
Timing all of it because Pat if that also happens like two I know like two years is a long time but in the macro sense it’s a very short time if that happens two years earlier or even like a year and a half earlier before you’re like with your wife in
Serus probo you know you’re just going to Vegas and like [ __ ] off with like 12K like I mean that like buddies like who who knows where what you do with that money in the end or even invest in in um you know in yourself although we were still at pretty much the beginning
There as for the rocket fuel it’s just because the space was so small agreed like no doubt that could help someone today like it would you can’t not hit 100 one in the space and get retweeted and and hyped but the space was so small that it was just that much bigger if
That makes any sense like it kind of pedestaled your show um that would be much harder to be pedestaled today because um yeah there was just so much less traffic to get to the top like in the small Niche back then oh oh for sure it
Was me and you it was the tour junkies and it was Kenny Brad and Zack woods and it was like burgers and Zach that was basically it yeah and like Kenny was like starting doing content but it was um it was still the fantasy golf degenerates but yeah it
Was Zach Brad and Kenny were the three of them were doing fantasy golf degenerates at the time so yeah the space was super condense I mean like you said it’s all about timing but it’s also being first to the scene I talked about this with Pete and Brian on LS last week
When I went on there it’s actually on my pod feed too on the back end of the Friday podcast I have the entire ation that I had with those guys from that show so if you want to download the pat Mayo experience subscribe to it turn on
Those Auto downloads I would very much appreciate it but even if you don’t want to do that and you just want to listen to it it’s at the back end you can hit the time code boom uh just put that in your earballs after you listen to this
Show but we kind of talked about like what’s next like what do you want to be at the Forefront of next and I mean that’s the hardest part to figure out like we were able to do that well like video podcasting I had one of the first video podcasts I’ve had this podcast
Feed for 15 years now when people didn’t have podcasts and that that was a big Advantage I built up a big base when no one had any of this stuff and I’ve retained that over the years and people have come along with me there’s people whove been listening to the show for 12
Years now that’s absolutely insane to think about but being first to the scene was a huge Advantage with fantasy National we were the first of that product being first to the scene was huge in that space I mean even someone like Davis Davis with top shots when top
Shots came out he sold a t Tyler hero top shot for like 30k and then got out of the market like but he was there early took advantage of it and got himself out like there there’s stuff that’s coming along like and it’s not just in our space it’s in every space
But can you make that determination that this is something that I want to be in on early and try to maximize it I mean Paul in Bitcoin people in Bitcoin just there there’s different ways that you can attack this but being early is really the the one key thing that binds
All these things together yeah I mean isn’t like a venture capitalist just like have the money to just try to be early across the board like isn’t that all you’re doing is like just a life of trying to be early yeah that’s what the people with the most
Money are doing sure but I’m talking about more about like you know regular people who might not have billions of dollars to invest no but it’s weird because you’re probably right I I could be forgetting or insulting someone I don’t think there was a video golf betting podcast video golf bets before
You I don’t know I don’t believe it I would I guess could be proven to me that there was but I don’t know and if there was you did it good enough to get ahead of all of them like you said we did I would not do this without you I mean I
Have done it without you but it was because the two of us that made that show good yeah and I sometimes I think it was lol’s I think Peter said it I don’t know whether it was in your episode or in a past one but he makes a joke you know
Sometimes you just look around you your friends you’re like like what am I doing with my life I’m like sweating parlays I’m like making stupid videos about this and that and sometimes you feel like what the [ __ ] am I doing but then you like Pat like it happens like once in a
While you we get it a lot and this isn’t to even talk yourself up but people count on like the consistency of the show and how many times have gotten messages that like I don’t know the show even as silly or stupid as it is it’s like a part of people’s lives
And it helps them get through a day sometimes really bad days sometimes makes good days better and I joke with my wife about these shows that like no I I will like the consistency in the show is is almost as important as anything and I will do anything to maintain that drop
Yeah if anyone’s ever thinking about getting into content whatsoever consistency besides having a good product a quality product that people enjoy that just having it come out at the same time on a schedule is like 90% of the battle you don’t want to have you don’t want to have people going to look
For things and I live a life where I’m consuming a lot of other people’s content and that’s part of my like daily life routine and um you know whether it be when I’m walking the dogs like I just I want that or I’m in the car like these are I have
My content routine and I appreciate those who deliver it on time for me but yeah wild wild that that chip from the Rocks you know even if that ball just hit the Rocks went in the water who knows but I do want to thank all of you
Great people for tuning into the video for listening to the podcast because without you all tuning in then you know we wouldn’t be able to do this we’d have to go like find real jobs and that is not something that I am capable of doing this is basically the only thing in life
I can do so continue to tune in and share the show around and do all that fun stuff that is the uh sentimental portion of the show let’s talk about the Farmers Insurance open because this kicks off for awesome weeks of golf this might actually be the best four-week
Stretch of the year for golf which is kind of crazy to think about cuz there’s no Majors there’s no nothing but we get this week the field is good at Tory Pines like it always is even without ROM being around and Rory not playing this year this field is still very strong and
It is a venue despite the fact that like golf nerds in their parents’ basement like I don’t like this course it’s very boring I love it I I can’t get enough of this course every single year I think it generates interesting tournaments almost every single time and you do like you
Might kind of mention you have a lot of the top guys who are in the tournament end up there at the end like it’s it’s a good sticky course history type place when you take a look at it I put this in the early look in the newsletter that I
Sent out on Sunday that 13 of the past 15 winners have had a top 10 previously at this event before winning the only two not to do that was Scott Stallings from the clouds in 2014 and Rah when he won in his first ever visit two Tory
Pines so we can kind of throw him off the board but it’s good to know that like first timers can actually persevere here at a course like this and my article full article with picks with breakdowns will be out on Monday afternoon after this show is out so
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That you need to come on Pat show with all of this it’s two courses though and it starts on Wednesday I think people always forget that the north course is in play for this tournament because no one really ever pays attention to it there’s no shot Link at that course it’s
A lot like the American Express where they’re just kind of if you’re playing at the North course it’s way easier it’s 500 yards shorter if you’re playing Showdown just take all guys at the North Course don’t even worry about the south course the first two days but it’s like they’re playing in a
Void in some ways they are I mean if you’re playing the secondary course on a Wednesday did it even happen probably not um but it it’s key you’ve got you’ve got to get your you got to make your Strokes where you can to put yourself into position
But I’m with you Pat I love it here I’ve got sort of some ties to the region so it’s always been one of my favorite places and kid people my age or kids when it happened the just tiger memories here make it Elite I don’t care if a lot
Of the holes look the same they look beautiful to me and I like that it’s a hard it’s the first hardcore course hard tournament that we get in the year which is always really nice you have this uh and now that they’ve saved Pebble by making an elevated event it’s still a
Pro am it’s going to be 70 players and there’s not going to be a cut but you get all of the best players in the world next week at Pebble Beach which I do think is very sharp by the PGA to put that historic course that everyone knows
With the best field possible on the week where football isn’t happening I think that’s a great idea so you get everyone playing next week then Phoenix is the next week as the lead into Super Bowl and that field isn’t an elevated event either but you already have shefflers
Going back to see if he can three repeat Victor’s playing in that field Xander playing it’s a very strong field anyway without being an elevated event then we go to Riv the next week where it is an elevated event it’s Tiger’s tournament tiger I believe tiger is playing isn’t
He yeah he said he was playing so then you get tiger to kind of cap off this four-week stretch and then I’m going on vacation because the Mexico open is happening and then what used to be the Honda is happening so you have like your down weeks before you start getting into
Players major season Florida swing everything like that but this these four weeks are just fantastic because it’s not like football was consuming all of your day all of your week There’s you know two games this week then there’s no games then there’s one game golf can
Actually like you know put it wedge its way in right now into the sports Consciousness yeah and how they do it perfectly with the fact that they’re done on the Saturday this week next week they’re taking advantage of the no Super Bowl you almost wonder if Nance because
It’s elevated and it’s like his home and sometimes uh so he’s going to be there having a ball and then the Super Bowl I don’t know about you guys but you know at least my Super Bowl parties is the waste management is is the pregame show and sometimes it’s gone way too long
With all those goddamn playoffs and and excitement over the years but I I’m I’m with you and then Riv okay be nice be nice to hit a bet um can we get two can we get two winners the next four weeks that would be nice well I’ll be honest Pat and there’s
Field changes that could alter this I’m GNA come on with you for the Phoenix show and I just have a Futures card like I don’t even think I can make a bet that DraftKings has had odds up there for for weeks uh months uh so I’ve like I’ve
Already gotten my guys for Phoenix I I’m hoping to not have to lay a bet and you know San Frank can make the Super Bowl then I got my future on there and then that’s like a I don’t have to go out of pocket for huge exposure weeks oh that
Feel like a win even if I lose are those numbers still up at draftking Sportsbook right now yeah they are they’re was have odds or the Waste Management Field because it’s not I I guess here’s the one thing to look into before placing any Wagers that I
DraftKings will probably pay you as a non-runner if the guys don’t play but there are players in this field right now that are not so far committed to playing in Phoenix 100% but um like minwoo is on that board he’s great odds at 50 to one
But he I have an 80 well even if you have an 80 he’s not committed to playing in Phoenix yet so he might not play in Phoenix and I I think that because of the legal listen if if they’re giving refunds on Depot Samuel overs because he
Got hurt after six plays which draftking sports book did and I don’t see why people are mad about that people to me like look how soft this is it’s like good people got their money back great I’m I’m happy that people didn’t lose their money I’m always happy when people
Don’t lose their money but we’ve been in situations before where we’ve bet Futures that player doesn’t qualify for the field because we got a great number and they they’re like yeah [ __ ] you should have read the rules you know I’m pretty I’m confident DraftKings is gonna
Make good I I’ve got so my I have so much on ludvig at 40 or 4040 probably for this it’s um he might not play he is not committed to playing he is committed to playing this week next week and the Genesis that is currently an off week
For him yeah so I Pat I have three guys I don’t know if they’re playing but I have huge numbers I have minwoo 80 sah 65 and ludvig 40 I need them to play that’s a good the Galla number he’s playing he is committed to playing yeah
Shout out to Josh Perry he put me on that one uh out of the gate when they dropped those and then when ROM went to live it sort of sent that market that’s when I really sort of reinvested into that market see but I always knew it wasn’t
Elevated and things things could get weird but I have confidence in DraftKings in sort of today’s climate that they will um make good on no Runners I I might get you to put some money on Sith for me he’s still 40 to one I think that I would still probably
I would probably do that there cam young is 40 there as well and he is committed to playing that’s one that I don’t mind especially as the field gets weaker okay yeah me um we talk to me after all right do it perfect well let’s talk about this
Tournament there I think there are two types of skills that you want to Target like bombs away at a course it’s almost 7,800 yards where you’re going to play three of the tournaments where barely anyone hits the Fairway you do want to hit the Fairway because the rough is
Long but only 50% of the field at the South course hits the Fairway you can watch all of this on the research show which I put out on Sunday this week it’s up on Mayo media Network right now so please go subscribe the other one is your more average distance but hyper
Accurate type players that are also good with their long irons because this is going to be a very long course you still need to be good in proximity from 200 plus but you need to be able to hit a bunch of fairies essentially the Colin morawa strategy where you’re not going
To Veer off left and right all that often you’re going to hit a ton of Fairways but you’re absolutely deadly with a five iron in your hand at the same time I I’m probably going to play segment one but if I did play the very
Top of this odds board near the very top col Moreau would be my favorite pick so let’s get into that let’s go to the very top of the odds because there’s four because Justin Thomas withdrew after the conclusion of the American Express because he moved to number 23 in the
World which got him automatically into the elevated event next week at Pebble he didn’t have to play his way in so he’s not going to play this week he’s going to take the week off and he’s another one that probably ends up in Phoenix anyway cuz he tends to play
Phoenix every single year yeah he is committed to Phoenix and now he’s in Pebble Beach so he’ll play three weeks in a row he’s taking this week off Xander is nine he’s the favorite Klay and H are both at 10 H’s the defending champion and just wins in California and
Morawa is 11 to1 those are the big four moraff is Tim’s one andone this week when I asked him who his one andone was he said Justin Thomas and I said but Justin Thomas isn’t playing he said okay how about morawa I said you’re in so
He’s in last right now and the one and know but he’s going with col morow he’s bringing out a big gun early for this event yeah I don’t blame him um I don’t blame anyone who want who’s going to use Colin maybe you want to be more
Strategic with it but again you just reeled off the top he is my favorite pick of of the ultra high-end category golfer this week I have tried to think about are there ways to construct a card that I could bet him could I even make a three-man like power card uh I have
Thought about it I’ve thought about it I’m swimming around it I might just have too many names between like 25 and 40 pull me away though that’s what happened to me I just bet someone as you were talking because I saw the number go down
In one place and he was on my short list I was like ah might as well grab the number I want to bet him anyway but of those four guys at the top it would be H morawa Xander then can’t lay for me can’t L actually doesn’t have a top 10
At this course so that mean by by trends that automatically disqualifies him and I don’t want to root for Patrick Klay I don’t want to be in a situation where one of my favorite guys is going to win the tournament and I’m sitting there with a Patrick Klay ticket being like Oh
My God I got a root for canle I just don’t want that to happen to me with all things being equal just no thank you yeah and I I’ve acknowledge it’s maybe part of what’s made us you know endearing to some people is like we’re still just golf fans this
Thing started is because we’re golf fans and we’re going to talk about golf the same way people come on a Monday to talk about football with that sort of excitement and that sort of like frustration um but with that comes I’m not a robot I’m not B on I used to I’ve
Bet Patrick hentley plenty over the years lots of bad some good but in this moment in time like I just have no interest and maybe that’s so weird how the media can just make you seem away and I’ve liked pieces of [ __ ] on tour before I’ve rallied behind guys I’ve
Perceived as pieces of [ __ ] on tour before and bet them but I don’t know I don’t even think that he’s I don’t even think that he’s a piece of [ __ ] I just so I say that uh I that that’s unfair that’s a little harsh I just not hate
Watching him just do the wiggle like every shot takes like four minutes it’s like oh my God and the the funny thing is you mentioned like we’ve bet Patrick cley over the years I bet you because I don’t bet him all that often but I have
Three wins with Patrick Hy that I’ve bet on him for he might be one of my most profitable golfers of all time um yeah potentially I I just I don’t know I’m just so him and Xander are not getting any of my money unless it’s a situation like it potentially was
Um like at the century where it’s like they’re major numbers for not Majors when there’s other good players but when they’re the best players I don’t have interest I don’t have any interest when they’re like two of the three best players in the field and those numbers
No I’d rather bet Colin they can win they can prove me wrong um I don’t like money I guess so this is the range where you and I were both talking about this next one down it’s Oar sunj 20 and 22 at draft King Sportsbook minwoo is 22 at
Draftking Sportsbook there are 30s out there so go look now is 25 day is 25 Keegan’s 35 Eric Cole is 35 sahi is 40 then you have zalatoris Rose Hideki Harris English number has crashed down to 45 Adrien [ __ ] the [ __ ] and rolla the Polish giraffe coming off a T2 in
Dubai last week they’re all 45 to1 then you got like straa and Nikolai hoard burger and Shane Lowry in that 50 range as well so I’ve made 1 2 3 four bets in this range wow can I guess let’s have it I’ve told you two of them already yeah
So I think you’re on Jason day I’m not on Jason day Jason day does have the best history of anyone at this course though okay so the the the ones that I’m looking at are obviously the Aber Bergman wo we’ve spoken about and I got
19 on Oar on ludvig I he’s 20 at draftking sports book right now but I’m not going to finagle all that I’ll just take the 19 and be on my way uh sahith and fin now P now okay so sahith was the one that I bet while you
Were talking because he went down to 40 at draftking Sportsbook and I had a 45 so I got I got oer at 19 seah at 45 minwoo at 30 and the first click that I made this morning was Keegan at 35 Keegan has three top five finishes it is
Past six starts at this tournament this is the ultimate Keegan still has a bit of plus distance but he’s been wildly accurate off the tea he has gained both driving and approach in each of his past six turns at the Farmers Insurance open that’s only including the South course
Some weeks some of those tournaments he putts great the other ones he putts shitty that’s the whole Keegan experience but I feel like he’s buried a little bit in the odds where he probably should be higher but everyone’s just kind of like mad at him because he came
Second at the Sony like he had a really good week at the Sony he just didn’t win in the playoff and that’s weirdly being held against him I think but he should like in what world should feno be 25 to1 with the way he’s playing and Keegan is
35 with the way that he’s playing okay that is fair but you could just literally insert like Mike single ter here for me at Keegan at 35 to1 can’t do it really why not why not I don’t know listen I might have said this when we recorded first
Thing on the Benny anaban like Ben and 3540 can’t do it like I just can’t do it and then by the time we got to Wednesday and it was time to have a card and there was benan i’ rather bet my own if I’m going topheavy I’d rather bet my own losers I
Guess that’s really the only honest thing to say because as you present numbers fair and balanced they’re all there like everything points to Keegan the course fit seems like it’s perfect other than um you know you’re the Northeast thing we’re we’re a little West but he’s striking it so well maybe that doesn’t
Matter he’ll keep it clean and he’ll miss some putts but if the scoring isn’t going to be that high then he’ll be right where he needs to be I get the case and the books are maybe telling you don’t bet him don’t bet him you don’t want to bet Keegan because Keegan should
Be 50 and I don’t know that he’d get more action oh maybe he’ll end up dropping maybe I maybe I should cash out the 35 and just sit on sit on it and wait on a number I was just excited to bet him uh fantasy National is going to have a new
Filter when the complete update is through it’s called Spike percentage uh it’s something that I wanted moose to add in you can set The Strokes gain per round for any of the stats it doesn’t really work with like driving distance or anything like that because we wait
All that and you know if you gain a bunch on driving distance then you’re going to be great uh you’re going to gain more than two strokes cuz it’s weighted differently but for your general ones off the tea approach chipping putting and total uh you can
Set to whatever you want when I call it Spike percentage like how many outlier rounds do they have with a lot of this stuff like how often over so I have like let’s sort bypass 24 rounds right now on fantasy National and I again I did this
On the walkth through uh for the entire field so you can see it it all set two strokes gained per round putting so how often do they gain two or more Strokes putting in a round over the past 24 rounds you can set that to any range
That you want and you take a look like it’s not all the best Putters that you’d be surprised about like Keegan is gaining and Keegan’s been a pretty decent putter he can be a really terrible putter at the same time he kind of vacillates a little bit but he’s gain
In one fifth of his rounds he’s gaining more than two strokes putting if you can just put together two of those rounds this week he’s got a leg he was second here last year too by the way Matt this could be such a boring leaderboard and what I mean I mean like
Good players but if it is like a heagan Paris English uh like sep straa Jason day like Justin Rose I don’t if that’s even boring that’s probably unfair to even call that boring yeah I don’t know I just feel like there’s all these guys at the books the number maybe the field just
Isn’t strong maybe I was expecting bigger numbers I don’t know there are a lot of boring guys that seem like they make perfect sense this week and I would rather bet the flashy dudes I like and feno could be part of that and I’m I’m I’m I’m a problem then I’m a problem
Feno is not getting my money I mean he’ll get my money for Mexico because he’s the only player like in the world committed to playing that tournament right now and I got him at 18 to1 he’s going to open it four to one to win that tournament unless he hurts himself
Sometime the next few weeks but he’s just not been good like and I want with sahi because I mean seah so because I went back and I watched the last three years of this tournament each of the rounds soth was very much in this a year
Ago when he just kind of had a bad weekend that’s happened to him a few times but he’s almost on the H trajectory right now like H wins in Napa then he repeats in Napa and he picks up his win at Riv then he picks up his win
At Tory Pines like dud is just lights out in California we’ve seen seah kind of do the same thing where he’s been good in California he got the win in Napa late last year so maybe it’s just going to pay itself forward I thought that 45 was a good number for him and
His skill set is weird cuz he’s just going to blast it off the tea we’ve seen lean spray it wherever you want and it’s fine and he has enough short game and good long irons like he’s very as Sky kind of pointed out that he’s very spey
In that way like some weeks he just doesn’t have it and he’ll chip himself out of the tournament the the weeks when he does have it he’ll chip in three times he’ll make a few bombs like that’s the week that I’m hoping for at 45 to one
Here I it I got nothing bad to say he’s he was part of a list of players I’m looking hard at and it’s a matter of picking Mora or a couple of these guys in the in the mid-30s 40s um and Min Min wo just fits every profile that you want
At this course except he can’t hit an iron that’s tough like he is absolute dog [ __ ] with his irons so me you have to like hope you get a break even weak from him with his irons but in terms of like that Spike putting percentage I talked about there’s like no one better
Than minwoo minwoo gains over two strokes putting in 40% of his rounds he’s amazing around the greens and he might be the longest player off the tea who’s not name isn’t Cameron Champ I’m gonna say it a lot as I bet him to lose tournaments weekly but I’ve
Played him at the first three majors and the waste championship at uh Waste Management champ at 80 to one the waste Championship so I’ve got four 80 to1 minwoo Futures in my chamber I believe he can win everything not all of them like hopefully just one of them
But I I believe he’s capable of everything and we’re going to major championship venue so he pequs my interest as does uh oberg morawa bow sah um and maybe just some guys who are also a little short who we haven’t gotten to like a sep straa but I don’t
Know that I could actually bet that is there a course better designed for OAR like you need to be long and straight like at no other course is that going to be more of Advantage than at this course and if he’s on like the true like
God ROM path TR then we just win here as a rook yeah I bet him you know when you do this week in week out you sort of try to use the Baseline of of you know there’s never fair you’d rather almost like who who’s going to win you know sometimes
I’m like let’s get a fair number and you’re like [ __ ] [ __ ] the value hunting it’s about who’s going to win oar was I believe like 25 to one Pat to win the BMW in Europe and I like that was a super strong field that pretty much every member of the European Rider
Cup team um and I assume some good Americans although maybe not because none of them played in that and that ended up being like a storyline that field to me almost felt as good as this uh and that wasn’t a course fit at all and he had a Sunday
Lead so I I can’t not bet him here and I don’t know that that link should mean anything but I’m just trying to maybe find myself some semblance of like that the number’s not even unfair getting a 20 on him on this golf course okay did you want to make a case
For f besides I like fow or you just rolling with that uh course history he’s always he’s played well here for the most part Pat I don’t think there’s been a addition of this tournament in the last four years that I five years maybe that I didn’t bet him I would also like
To add in that his T25 he double bogied the last so I want to call it a T15 sure don’t look at me don’t look at me yeah great Tony was able to come T even if we give him the extra 10 spots on the leader board yeah Tony was able
To come T15 at the American Express congrats um but yeah you’re right he could probably be the first guy he might be a name that of everyone else that I’m interested in he’s probably the easiest for me to Cross off he’s the one I do feel the less beholden to
Although yeah I mean it’s a really dumb take why do you like this guy well I’ve always felt he’s destined to win this tournament one year that’s probably not going to cut it I tried that with the bill I tried that I tried that with the bills on Sunday that was not [Laughter]
Successful yeah oh man ah so let’s let’s jump to the 50 plus range because there are a few names in here the problem is I mentioned the the top 10 link that you had a previous top 10 at a tournament and then go to win I’ve bet minwoo and
Oar who have not played in this tournament before so you know maybe try to ride those ROM Vibes with it but you also have like hoard is right around this range then you have like Burger actually Burger made the cut uh that was nice to see Ryan Fox was obviously the
One that peaked my interest here where he’s 75 to one I thought he’d open way shorter than that he didn’t have a great run through Dubai he played both events I think he was t17 and t31 or something like that so it wasn’t great but he’s
Another guy who just bombs it off the T has a good enough short game very good with his wedges that I could see it with him it just seems like a very big number and Luke list is right there too everyone’s going to bet Keith Mitchell
Because he shot like 48 on Sunday at the American Express I’d pass on him and go with list over Mitchell and fox over I think between for me it’s between Fox and list Fox I knew we were gonna get to that because that number did stick out
That that seemed um a little high list past Champion he’s checked your boxes cased it for you I feel embarrassed cuz I can’t see him is Dri in the field yeah yeah he’s 90 to one you think he was gonna be like 30 to one no I didn’t but um I’d rather bet
Taylor Montgomery again yeah no because I was gonna say I don’t actually know what’s going on with um Thomas I used to be able to trust so much off the te and that hasn’t really been there I feel and now we’re not getting the results everything sort of I
Want to say sometimes would come from that who did you say oh Montgomery yeah the driver putter can he chip well enough to get out of a bit of trouble no gets every eight-footer he does like dude is lights out on the green he’s he’s been 31st and 11th here the past
Two years now we’re just getting a much better number on him uh but again I’ve bet four guys in that 20 to 50 range and I have one guy at 200 like I have room for like Fox and Montgomery if I really wanted to uh with the way that I’m
Structuring everything out but I had Fox Hoy guard Montgomery and list written down as the ones to go to and I probably take a pass on hoard because I’ve already gone with two guys who haven’t played here before and you know I’d want more on his number than 45 or 50 so at
Least Fox list and Montgomery all in that like 70 to 90 range I don’t mind that I I could get behind that unless there’s other guys that you want to talk me into I don’t really have anything I can talk you into other than do we not got to play the
Um I don’t know dap take some placings with the Japanese kid at over a 100 who Ryu yeah or is this just like this is a true you almost want to this is a litmus test of we’re finally going to a course that can penalize
You well it’s been a lot of putting for Ryu and maybe he continues doing that like he gains seven strokes putting at the Sony and it only ended up coming T30 uh played well enough at the barbasol last year he he like lost seven strokes putting but he gained on approaching and
That’s a longer course he gained off the tea there shotlink is like [ __ ] for the American Express so like they’re we emailed him this morning like where are the stats they’re like yeah we’re working on it just like bear with us on this but I can almost assure you like
After watching his low round on Sunday he was just chipping in and making 30 Footers the entire time that maybe he continue pushing that forward he would be the type of guy that I’d be looking at here I’d be looking at more American bomber deeper down the list like I bet
Sam Stevens at 200 to one like when I looked at who plays the best in this field Strokes game wise total on courses that are over 7,400 yards he was number one would not have guessed that no and he’s actually I mean at two shorter coures to start his season he’s kind of
Getting it back on the rails a little bit like he had a terrible end to the season he had a terrible swing season he had a terrible Sunday at the American Express but you know he ended up coming 65th he was 24th at Sony and he’s he
Almost fits the list profile in a really weird way he has like plus plus plus distance the irons can be like good or bad like depending on the week but his around the green game has been shockingly good especially lately like for his career he’s like you know a half
Stroke a tournament over the past five he’s gaining Two Strokes per tournament over the past 10 he’s gaining a stroke per tournament the putter just runs hot and cold mainly cold but you get them on POA maybe that’s a little bit different it’s 200 to one with the top
Five placements so Rah won here last year right no homo won Rah had it there was a hole where ROM like chipped it five feet in front of himself like three times in a row and took himself out of the tournament but this is where uh they
Interviewed Sam Ryder’s mom where he had the multi-stroke lead on the back right that is correct Ryder was running away with this then they interviewed his parents that was the end of Sam Ryder oh they’re trying to build the story um but he’s like he’s an interesting look here interesting that’s
That’s where I was going is 110 to one he has top 10 here he was fourth last year he was seventh three years ago so obviously there’s something about this course that does fit his eye and it’s rewarded course history in the I imagine he’ll be very popular in the
Games I would guess that his I don’t know what his DraftKings pricing is going to be obviously but I bet you it’s pretty up there like for like the quality of like instead of being 7100 he’ll be like 7,800 or something and then that makes it you know not as great
When he’s the same price as like Taylor Montgomery there is one other player who we watch he ended up bogeying the 72nd hole to ruin his uh bogey streak but Kevin you might be a look here any interest in Kevin youu coming off a hot
Week how far does he hit it a ways Kevin you fourth in the field and driving distance yeah I’m interested the the top 10 I mean there is a name that we just completely talked over and maybe we shouldn’t have but zalot Taurus is 45 to one he made the
Cut last week made the cut last week he lost in the playoff to list um I don’t know that I’ve seen enough to pull the trigger because I don’t think I would want to push someone off my card for him but uh I’m encouraged by that and
Obviously the books are going to start every week if he shows life they’re gonna pop it down but just in terms of guys who kind of skipped over like I think both you know past champions and roseen day are very Live this week I don’t know if I’ll be able to bet them
Though I I I completely agree with you but I’m not getting to day at 25 to1 and I’m not getting to Rose at 45 to1 considering I just bet him at the Sony Open at 65 to one rose won here after he like bitched about his new hom clubs yeah something
Or something happened he was bitching but then he went to uh because all the manufacturers are right here so every every good player well even the bad players everyone can get an on um like obviously have the touring trucks that follow these guys around but they can go
Get the five star tuneups this week out in Carl’s Bad all of them 20 minutes down the road okay so outside of rose and day who you’re not going to bet that you just brought up who are some other names well I feel like I’m I I kind of said I’m
Swinging I’m taking swings I I don’t think I’m betting anyone north of like that 70801 you they’ll have to be a hard harder cell um on me to be able to find the units or even to want them like this Longshot shit’s got to
End so 25 to 40 to one sort of where I’m just gonna live I I’ll try to put in that modeling that I talked about with accuracy Strokes gained off the tea and long iron play uh maybe even couple that with short game but I mean that really
Hasn’t proven itself all though like the because Molinari is malari is in this field he’s played well at this tournament um in the past I’ve mentioned morawa Keegan would be another one so we’ll try to find the links between those guys uh and you can do that at Fantasy national.com Mayo to get
Yourself that discount but in terms of driving distance and you’re thinking about long shots like there’s a b if you just want to straight up gamble on some of these guys minwoo is number one in the field in driving distance obviously he is 30 to1 so he doesn’t qualify as
The long shot the next 15 guys on the list only zalot Taurus is is below 5050 to1 so zot Taurus is 10th and he’s 45 to1 number two is Champ 200 to1 gup 300 to1 Kevin you 110 to1 hego 300 to1 Callum Taran 350 to1 your boy Patrick Rogers 70 to1
Vegas 250 to1 who’s made the cut here for the past five years and eight of the past 10 years uh and blew my DraftKings lineup for me last weekend when he missed a very easy putt on the 54th hole to miss the cut by one stroke thanks
Johnny Woodland is 130 lost in a playoff here before zator who I mentioned toasty the panded norm zong Chan Kim forchan Long Dong Paul Baron’s a thousand to one Jake knp I mean he put your lineups to nap last week when he was like the only dude to finish overpow at the American
Express but he does put the ball out there quite a ways he is 300 to one and after that you got like Taylor Moore he was T 11th here last year he’s 110 to1 pendrith is 80 to1 Davis Riley is 400 to1 semi semi Kawa might actually be the
Look or will Gordon I believe I bet will Gordon here last year he’s 250 to one he’s 23rd in the field in driving distance I was surpris I’m surprised semi Kawa is up there maybe let’s play low Japanese semi Kawa get him to beat Hideki and uh hideki’s playing right
We’s kind of glossed over him Hideki and R yeah we’ve glossed over Hideki we’ve glossed over Ricky but I don’t know what we’re supposed to say Ricky I saw through Saturday was three three under par at a resort Course Pro app um I hear that’s not
Good no it’s not going to get the job done and it would not leave me inspired at all to bet him but you know there was forever Ricky was you know the homeboy and he would always struggle at Tori anyway right so yeah he would always
Struggle at Tori and I I mean we didn’t know exactly why maybe it was a bad course fit whatever it might be but he always because he was a Farmers Insurance guy that he had so many media obligations before the tournament actually started that always felt like
That was bad for him yeah and on we’ve spoken about it before but the final edition of uh Farmers for the San Diego open see I heard that’s not the case I heard that the contract actually expires in 2026 they just said they’re not renewing it oh okay so that’s a that’s an
Important um distinction but also to be that far out from expiration and to not even give a [ __ ] with sort of you know to to be that far out from neg NE iation maybe it’s a from expiration maybe it’s a negotiating tactic maybe the PJ will get on their
Hands and knees over the next year to keep them who knows I still can’t believe they lost Honda that was a lot I mean that is as much to do with like no one got that was Honda pretty much saying enough isn’t like you can only take so many hot dumps on
Us and I get it they have built stable relationships with with with hot dumps like uh John Deere is happy I guess they know their place in the ecosystem and they continue to happily get what they get Honda was just it’s like it it had its insides ripped
Out and I think I still say Jack Jack wanted they could have match play at Honda I don’t know that any players would want to show up but it’ be awes that’s my dream Monahan did say that match play is not dead like that he wants to bring it back somewhere it’s
Just not on the schedule for this year and I think that cuz when the elevated events were first announced that there was going to be like a uh like a rotation of elevated events we’ve seen it a little bit although like harbort toown continues to get one The Travelers
Continues to get one I think eventually those will be moved off a little bit and they don’t make a ton of sense because they happen like the weeks after Majors which is strange that I think other than Pebble and and other than Pebble switching with with waste management for
Elevated status what else got elevated nothing did but the in initial conversation was that there was going to be a rotation of this that if that’s still the case and I think John Deere is holding on for the for the elevated event at TPC Deer
Run so I do agree I I remember hearing that their plan was essentially like a full-on rotation of elevated and and at some point everyone gets a taste some would get more than others but everyone will be included um and they better suck up to RBC because rbc’s got expiring contracts on two
Tournaments so RBC should get whatever they ask for because they can’t afford to lose them but there’s a lot of talk here that that is seems like there’s a lot of fear in Gulf Canada that that could be done which would be really bad well time to
Get bad time to get back on the export a open get Sig get sigs back into the mix yeah they got to change sigs gambling I guess they got to booze they got to do something you’re right we gota we got to let booze back in the
Game the Johnny Walker classic we got to get that [ __ ] back uh in North America I remember my race cars marbro and and uh yeah players that VN car yeah and Paul Tracy I went as Paul Tracy yeah Paul Tracy car yeah I went for Halloween
As Paul Tracy one year my freshman year of college and got the absolute crap beat out of me on Halloween night so I dyed my hair blonde the only time I had ever dyed my hair blonde my entire life um it was died Red by the next morning
And I still have the scar underneath it broke my orbital bone and nose in a fight not fun see these hands never been in a fight lost a lot of fights when you run your mouth like you lose a lot of fights very punchable face too so happens you
Move on here are some guys with Fairways gained inside the top 30 that also have proximity from 200 yards uh inside the top 35 over the past 36 rounds morawa Daniel Burger straa senson Carson young Harrison Endicott who was like 11 under on Saturday at the MX Mark hubard
Shez reevy Hayden Buckley likes to fuckle Shane Lowry who I totally forgot was in this tournament and JJ spawn who’s had some decent run here in the as eot is another one ot’s 130 to one I I think of all like the value down the
List he would be the one cuz it feels like he’s going to win at some point doesn’t it absolutely uh there was a run where I like bet him for a month straight last summer I think in the shitty tier events probably around like Detroit Minnesota didn’t go well um Seb
Straa is a guy you mentioned in that tier and I wish he was more I wish it was like the 65 to1 seps cuz the guy does things right Pat and he plays these hard courses he he’s showing up a lot his his resume of finishes is pretty
Impressive it is he was 16th here two years ago 32nd in 2021 and 13th in 2019 which is strange because the Dude like can’t chip to save his life but he chips well here seventh at the PGA second at the open fifth at the Honda and then obviously
Like he yeah he went like Eclipse he went full he went more hardcore than a Kevin stman eclipse at the John Deere um yeah so if you if you put this place in an exact see it’s not so much exacting because you could bomb the [ __ ]
Out of it so maybe it isn’t maybe the most ideal SE course because he’s he’s good on like exacting difficulty courses if that if what I’m saying makes any sense yeah like the shorter courses that are more precision based off the tea yeah be like where you really don’t want
To be in in the wrong spots because he can make huge numbers but I don’t know it’s a t it’s man for all like the looks of there’s like a tier of golfer here that to me should be paying more and they aren’t and it is sort of like Harris
English sep straa Justin Rose semi Cawa is the only player in the field who ranks inside the top 30 in both accuracy and distance isn’t that weird he’s like not good either he came 30th at the Sony that’s his best career finish on the PGA tour that’s like a Terrell Hatton stat
Yeah that is that is a Terrell Hatton stat for sure who apparently live is H there’s reports they’re still chasing him hard they’ve gotten a couple like hard NOS from other Ridder coppers obviously the Fleetwood rumors that he turned down 75 100 million I think I’m gonna bet I’m
Gonna bet semi Kawa you know he’s did you know he’s named after Tiger Woods no but I saw there’s a basketball player first name Iverson last Nam Allen which I thought was boss that’s kind of funny so let’s see here although re is kind of the guy that everyone’s talking up at the
Moment semi Kawa was number one in the world am rankings he was he was number one before ludvig was number one so maybe he’s just taking people were more likely to think semi Kawa was going to win this year before Dunlap yes I mean I didn’t even think
People thought that Dunlap was going to play in an event he was going to play in like the Masters in the US Open in the open because he won the US am but and no one got paid yes he second place gets first place money yeah
Bez Bez walked away with all the Bez walked away with the purse in the one andone all the Bez team shot to the top that’s so good and I thought they changed the rule because of zalot torus but he can’t get points because he’s an amateur
Correct and why wouldn’t he could he not have said I’m not an on on Saturday night could he not haveed amateur I thought the same thing but you have do it before the tournament oh I guess it doesn’t you know it is what it is like in a year or two he’s
Going to be making so much money he’ll just laugh at like this check he’s probably making so much money now with the nil and that was another part of it for all the things going on in the Gulf ecosystem of like apparel and contracts ending Adidas Adidas it’s pronounced
Adidas Adidas they are on they’re they they got ludvig they got this kid I’m pretty sure they’re on the Thor th thorbjorn um thorbjornson kids so they’re doing a d they’re just paying the kids they’re paying the next the next wave as no one else seems to want to be investing good
For them all right well I I will most definitely bet semi C low Japanese maybe I’ll get there 300 to one as well why not it’s worth you know my five and five quick picks for the Farmers Insurance open let’s try to hit a winner I’m going with ludvig
Oel 19 to1 Mino Lee 30 to1 Keegan Bradley 35 to1 sahala at 45 to1 and then the only other bet that I currently have in is Sam Stevens at 200 to one the other names that I’m toying around with semi CWA at 300 to1 or potentially low
Japanese Fox and list are right there and keep an eye on Eric Burns if he ends up getting into this field I believe he’s the second alternate right now he was t13 a year ago he just returned off knee surgery and played really well with
The AMX dude crushes the ball uh so you know as a top 20 top 30 if that’s a market you want to play and he might not even end up making it onto the betting board uh if he ends up getting into the tournament because it might just be too
Late he might not be available on DraftKings but I would keep an eye on him this week but those are the five that I have in right now and I’ll probably just I mean well listen I’m going to end up on Fox I’m going to bet
Ryan Fox so just throw him on there too Taylor Montgomery was the other one I wanted to give a look at I’ve been told I should quit him that’s probably a good idea our friend Andy has always been encouraging me to quit him quit him before it gets too before
You get in too deep uh for me it’s it is it is ludvig it is sahit everything else from there is still a decision to be made including my boy minwoo F now uh I think I could pull off morawa the highest number I
Could find the 20 on oeg the 45 on a hith I could pull a three-man power pack I could do that all right I might do that I might get away with that one and done selections for the Farmers Insurance open our three-man game does not reflect our selections in the race
For the Mayo cup because playing against 4,400 people is a lot different than playing against two other people you remain in the lead by $600,000 over me because of benan second place finish kust has selected Colin morawa I’m going to take Keegan Bradley because you’re not going to do that so who are
You gonna take I’m gonna take Jason day good call I like that I really yeah I I think he might win next we can’t pull 25 to one but he’s going to be there this week I think I think if you’re you think maybe I should if you’re going to use
Day I’d say you use him this week or next week because he he dominates a pebble too I’m using him next this week next week with elevated they’ll be I don’t know I’ll be drawn to a sexier name you don’t think he’s looking sexy in those Hammer pants I like I’m I’m not
Not a fan I am not not a fan I’m not like a full fan I’m talking about the outfit I love Jason day but I’m not not a fan of of what’s going on I appreciate I like that the bigger names backing away from higher end players can
Allow some of this fun stuff because I’m into the fat I want people to get crazy you know me crazy I I’m in for it so what I glad hand some of the I glad hand some of the Victor tops so it won’t take much for me to Glad hand people doing
Some crazy [ __ ] out there I almost didn’t want to bet seah because of the goofy hats that they have him and like hatting and playing it like they’re just God awful oh the p and that was Hawaii though that they do that in Hawaii they do that’s Hawaii you will not see that
This week I better not because that’s going to make me feel very bad about my money being invested in him it’s a Hawaii collection from ping you will not see that state side I better not you didn’t see ping players wearing it last week at the MX I don’t believe how much
Of the AMX did you watch none the end Saturday night the back nine of like the good players on Saturday on the side screen watching football and then yesterday I was pretty into it because I had a ticket I can’t believe the dlap although cus didn’t like openly root for him or
Say that it’s over when he when he dm’d us that yo who is this guy I thought that was curtains for him and it was because he like double bogied immediately then he ended up rallying back back should we bet that guy maybe he’ll go on a heater dlap 100 to one
Never heard of him what he just won I was just trying to make a joke umat it did not work out well I’ll try to save my good material for tomorrow you we get to run your promo video tomorrow you get to pick what promo video you want you need to
Email that me because we have to do I have an un not not released it has not been released yet I got something I got something good I knew I knew I could release this today on the Twitter or and I could save this one for uh exclusive
World premiere on the football show see I I thought that I mean the custy campaign is going on you can vote in the custies down in the description right now but I thought you guys were like way you guys must have so many memes in campaign material because you guys were
Blowing them on like a Saturday morning yeah see maybe that was I was just trying to let people know I’m out here here campaigning early hours on the weekend I got I had a lot of material um but at the same time I’m I thought he
Was gonna punch back harder so I’ve been sitting on some [ __ ] like I’ve been sitting on things you know you don’t just you you’re like a coach you have a plan but you you got to counter punch the other play calls okay that would I would also say a
Lot of the responses on his stuff like pretty stale pretty stale I don’t know that they were ready for me to come out campaigning we’ll see what they got but I I’m going to win tomorrow’s commercial I’ll guarantee it I’ve weaponized cam I have weaponized the man the true man of the
People I I liked your angle that Tim disrespects trade workers that was an interesting angle that is that is clearly true highly skilled Tradesman he thinks he’s got what you got that will do it on the pat Mayo experience so tune in tomorrow night well tune in tomorrow for the draftking
Show with Tambo then tune in tomorrow night for the spread pick show only two games left so there going be a lot of like Jeff and Tim fighting I assume on that show as we move forward and then we’ll still be here during the football
Off week with a football show as we go through Awards all that fun stuff so a ton of content coming at you on the pat Mayo experience very very soon that will do it for me playing the listeners League sub to the newsletter And subscribe to Mayo media Network both in
Podcast version and in video version you can follow Jeff fineberg on Twitter G fineberg 17 me at the pme and that’ll do it okay I we’ll see you next time experience experience
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Golf! <3
Had An & Keegan 2 week ago & Burns/Thomas last wtf
Look forward to seeing you every week for golf. Thank you for the information.
Cashing out a 500/1 to just double your money is the most moronic betting move of 2024. Guy didn't deserve the screenshot so glad the amateur won now
cashing out is soft and why even gamble in the first place if he loses its only 10 dollar loss
I didn't get Dunlap at 500/1 but I did put 50 cents on him each way 5 places for 300/1 and won 188!! Thanks guys!!
Thanks Geoff on the Dunlap mention last week…put $3 to
win over $1000.
I had Bradley in the Sony Open 2 weeks ago. Still sick about it.
Pat, all due respect, but that movie poster behind your head with the giant eyeball is distracting every week. Looks like a creep sneaking up behind you.
Not to get mushy, but your show is very Important to me. The last year has been hell for me and this show helps me get through some rough spots. I am very thankful for Pat, and every one of his guests. When I need something to listen to so I am not laying in silence, you are always there with great content. Thank you
I bet theegala @ 45 and xander @ 19/2
Not sure if you want the feedback but I could do without so many golf shows. 1 golf show per week encompassing DFS and Bets should be enough for your golf audience. I always enjoy your non sports shows, wish you could do a weekly banter show with a rotation of guests
C Morikawa 12/1 S Thegala 45/1 H English 55/1 T MONTGOMERY 90/1 Pierceson coody 750/1 Farmers insurance open
T OLESEN 18/1 T Mckibbin 45/1 T Lewis 150/1 Ras el Khamriah
B Henderson 16/1 M Sagastrom 70/1 drive on championship
Taylor Montgomery swing is like a octopus crashing in a helicopter
Guys love the show cashed out on the 16th before the water drama – still agree on cash out after Walker US open cash out early
23:22 funny enough, I started listening to the show after the danny willet bet won
Love everything you put out guys. I appreciated the story about The Dufner money. That was awesome.
The Goat is always giving the best Contern!! Thanks Pat! I think Jason Day will Win Farmers. I also have a weird feeling that Sahith Theegala can get one here as well!
Even though they are awful short odds Schauffele is playing lights out and He’s always wanted to win this Tourney. He played it every day when he was in High School