Bet Big Favorite Scottie Scheffler to Win 2024 Phoenix Open? Golf Prediction & Picks | Links & Locks

Action Network contributors and golf betting experts Robert Arguello, Nick Bretwisch and Spencer Aguiar discuss their favorite golf bets for this year’s Farmers Insurance Open on the Links and Locks podcast presented by bet365. Click here for more golf picks: bit.ly/GolfAction

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00:00 – Introduction
01:15 – Wyndham Clark
02:08 – WM Phoenix Open Best Bets
08:02 – Course Preview
12:51 – Outright Bets
27:00 – bet365 Promo
27:45 – WM Phoenix Open Picks
33:34 – Rapid Fire Picks
42:00 – Longshots
46:00 – More Golf

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#AuthorSpencerAguiar #AuthorRobertoArguello #BlueWireVideo

Welcome to links and locks the action Network’s golf betting podcast presented by bet 365 this is your 2024 WM Phoenix Open tournament betting preview alongside Nick brwi and Spencer agar I’m Roberto aruo and we’ve got a fun episode for you today this is the Phoenix Open preview it’s the people’s open a fun

Tournament Big B Big Time ball Strikers golf course so hopefully we can stay hot for you after Spencer hit on Windam Clark last week he successfully convinced me for the inpod play to add Windham Clark at 100 to1 so Spencer you have hit on Windham Clark at 100 to1

Last week you hit on him last year at the US Open at Los Angeles Country Club what do you got for your best bet this week as this is now transition from a Jason day podcast to a Wen Clark podcast yeah very unfortunate on the Jason day

Front there it’s been a it’s probably been since I would say 2014 that he’s been my favorite player and I like don’t think that all of a sudden once I got a Twitter presence that this started like this has been something that’s been going for a lot longer than that and uh

Breakups are difficult I you know it’s it’s never easy moving on and going but I think this is the right time in life to move over to the Windam Clark route and uh I just you know it’s it’s really funny Roberto and I’ll give my pick in

One second I just want to talk about this Windom thing very quickly it’s very interesting because this and I mentioned this to you on the show the same upside numbers that pop for him at the Uso pop for him last week at Pebble Beach it’s such an interesting situation to

Where like the there was nothing about the form that could have put you on him there was nothing about really a lot of the ways that he was performing that would have put would have made you think that that was going to happen but a lot

Of those trending numbers of how I run my data to mimic a specific venue uh really popped for him at Lac and then it really popped for him at Pebble Beach and you know I think that California answer now seems to be a real thing for Windam there’s just certain players that

Play better out there um very happy to get on that I I’m going to be a team player though for the best bet here I think this is a very challenging best bet board and that’s something this year that I’ve prided myself on like my best bet last week was sunj over Cameron

Young that bet came in I I think the last handful have come in I didn’t want to go to a matchup this week There’s very little value that I found we still have books entering in the space I’m going to let Nick have the plus 550 play

That I was going to talk about uh so let it be known that I’m a team player there but I’m going to go with a matchup I will say steady in that area I don’t think this is the greatest value play I’ve ever seen think there’s enough to

Punch a ticket at this particular price but Eric Van royan minus 106 over Christian badan out all right let’s see if we can stay hot this week Nick who you got for your best bet this week yeah uh Spencer’s on it too so we were talking about it on

The better golf pod and he signed off off on it one of the bigger edges I have especially in the outright Market but we’ll talk about the outright market and if it’s even possible that Scotty sheffler does not win this tournament but I’m going to go with Corey Connor’s

Top 10 plus 550 with our boys at bet 365 all right I’m also going to jump into the top 10 market for my best bet and I’m going to go Kurt kyama plus 650 for a top 10 before we get into those top 10 bets Spencer break down your

Matchup bet for us so the one thing I’ll say about this play at least from a con perspective of it is that Baden Hout is a safer commodity than I normally would prefer to take on weekly he’s just outside the top 50 in My overall head head rank he climbed marginally higher

From there for safety however at the end of the day here I’m GNA go back and pinpoint this to the data why my model doesn’t love him outside of yes he has fine I I don’t want to say Stellar I mean he’s inside of the top 30 for me so

It’s better than would normally like to see but uh fine TPC play historically the weighted proximity numbers are going to also be a positive for him although I just want to note that’s an area that gets reduced by over 5% at TPC Scottdale versus a normal course when you look on

The flip side of that he ranked a poultry 79th for weighted scoring 75th and expected weighted te to Green play to mimic the course 112th for aggression I don’t think the floor is as low as I ideally would like to have for one of these tournaments that has a cut but I’m

Going to trust fan royan here nine top 30 finishes globally in his past 10 starts that’s going to include a victory at the worldwide technology championship in November and I just think if we’re going safety versus safety I do prefer the van royan route and then all of a

Sudden you add in the upside of where my model does like him as an outright bet when he opened at 125 to1 we’ve seen that number come down at some shops recently I’ll get more into that outright uh portion of that bet later in the show but uh very small Edge it’s

Probably I think mathematically it’s the second smallest Edge that I’ve had on a head-to-head play this year that I’ve given out you know naturally the other one ended up winning so like it doesn’t necessarily mean a small Edge is going to translate negatively here but I I’m

Not trying to break the bank on this wager this is a very small bet and it’s going to be a minimal card for me in general I think that makes a lot of sense Nick tell me why you’re going with Cory Connor for top 10 at plus 550 yeah

So looking at course history and everything like that he’s he’s safe here going to make the cut you know more times than not I think he’s four straight here in the four times that he’s played it but this is a ball Striker course it is probably the

Highest weight that I have to overall ball striking for any tournament we’ve played thus far he’s been lights out with the driver lights off off the te the approach game I think leaves a little bit to be desired in terms of Corey Connors but he grades overall 18th

For me in safety and then seventh for upside so to get you know five and a half to one on someone that I I guess would kind of put right around that 10th to 12 12 finishing finishing position I’m going to be all over Cory Connor here in a water downfield something we

Haven’t seen at the the WM Phoenix for quite some time I think this is a course that he should be able to tear up in a field that he should be able to tear up and finish inside the top five um so to get that top 10 number at plus 550 I’m

Gonna ride the ball Striker himself Cory Connor here awesome I love it I’m going to be on quite a few ball Strikers whose putting are questionable as well uh but we’ll save that for the outright card speaking of ball Strikers who struggled on the greens my best bet this week is

Kirk kyama plus 650 for a top 10 and it’s because of the ball striking kyama absolutely hits lasers if you look at some of his results on other strong ball striking courses on the PGA tour we know last year he showed he has what it takes

To win among the strongest fields in the world when he won at the API and that that was one of the few tournaments where he gains rook’s putting because it’s been a struggle for him since then he also finished for in a TI for fourth at the PGA Championship last year when

He gained Strokes putting but since then he’s only gained Strokes putting one other time that was at the Charles swap challenge last May so putting it has been an adventure for him I think the last test on the PJ tour that was really a strong ball striking test was the Zozo

Championship not quite as big of a ballpark as this week but kyama finished t16 there in October unfortunately we don’t have any data from that so maybe he gain Strokes putting not sure but looking at his approach numbers gain Strokes on approach in each of his last six track tournaments gain Strokes off

The T in in eight of his last nine so I know that he can get it to the green around the green he’s also pretty solid gain Strokes around the Green in four of his last five track tournaments but the putting has been poor hopefully we get

Lucky this week and he’s just a zero or he gains and so I’m going to shoot for upside with him I don’t think he’s super safe but I think that if he can get it together on the putting greens he could win this tournament so give me a top 10

On Kurt kyama at plus 650 50 fellas let’s get into our course preview here at TBC Scottdale before we hop into outrights in just a moment Spencer I’ll let you have the floor yeah so we have 132 players that are slotted to Tee It Up this week and take on what is really

An exciting property at TPC Scottdale I’ve always said that the course is as much Flash from a structural perspective as it is fun in it nature um everybody’s going to talk about just the fanf fair that you’re going to get this week it it’s definitely the party of the PGA t

Or yearly it’s one of those venues where the risk reward gets Amplified on the back nine when diving into that built-in Stadium venue on 16 that’s going to put the fans as part of the show and then the driveable par 4 17th that can quickly produce either an eagle or

Double bogey on the scor card I think if we ever return to a match play contest and I genuinely hope the PGA Tour if they ever do go that route would consider using this property I think there’s a lot of obvious factors here because of that risk reward that I

Talked about but I I thought there were a few traits about this week that could be easily modeled uh players see over a 3% increase in expected production off the te that’s going to come because of the firm Fairways elevated setup and The Limited rough you do have the desert

Pitfalls that are always looming if you go two Wayward off the T but I will say the recent reign in Phoenix does have the propensity to at least slightly alter where the importance comes from for the week so if you’re looking at past historical data I would at least

Keep that in mind I’m not saying that that’s necessarily going to be a massive deviation from what you could expect but you know maybe the need for distance off the te is a little bit more than the 6040 split that I ran compared to accuracy if it’s wet there’s an argument

That the over 4% increase in projected shots that we get from 150 to 175 yards could maybe move into that 175 to 200 range but I I think really the core of that answer that I keep landing on and one of the big things that separated my

Model from a lot of others is just how heavily I weigh aggression that’s going to take the the the the the brunt of that answer comes from going for the green that’s a PGA Tour stat that you can find on their website from there I did be create this more wonky

Construction and that mad scientist route of trying to find something that I think is a little bit unique or different but you know players who will go for the green one given these drivable par fours the scorable par fives golfers that can find a different gear when a quality shot is needed when

Water is looming I think those are all the key answers that we’re looking for obviously blowout potential comes in with that mindset but I do want to note that I went and I back tested this for five years um Scotty Sheffer winning twice is going to be very natural to

Push this in the direction so take this for what it’s worth but there hasn’t been a player for me in the last five years of running this data when I went back that has won this tournament outside of the top 50 of my model when I reconstructed the meaning of aggression

So um there’s a lot of players for me that are going to land in that range that are the favorites that we can talk about in the show and you know I I think the top of the board is very strong I do think though there were a handful of

Options that maybe have some support in the SP that I’m going to be off of this week I will name a few of them it doesn’t mean that they can’t find safety here I think from an outright perspective these are all names I’m going to be out of though and I think

It’s just at least worth mentioning because they were outside the top 50 that’d be guys like Brendan Todd Baden Hal Denny McCarthy which I know Nick likes McCarthy a little bit that was kind of the thing that pushed me off of him uh Andrew putam Lucas Brian Haron that’s a wild statement for

Me to come on this show and and say something negative about Harmon I think Adam hadwin is a very popular choice this week I I think he’s safe and we’ve seen it in the desert before but I don’t know if the upside is necessarily as indicative when you look at some of

Those lack of aggression stats Alex noren Thomas dietry JT Poston would really be the the big name of that group uh I mean he’s a sub35 to1 choice at most books worry a little bit about his total driving worry a little bit about his ability to be aggressive when push

Comes to shove doesn’t mean I don’t think he can provide one of those top 10 or 20 finishes but uh if we’re looking at an outright bet which we will get into shortly here it’s easier to get rid of some of those names when they didn’t show us Value Plus had a secondary

Problem thank you made a lot of great points there Spencer and I will Echo that this would be an awesome match play golf course I think this course TBC Sol grass um some of the other ones in the major champion ships would also be fantastic and I would love to have that

Back in our PJ tour rotation this is another week where we got uh POA greens it’s POA overseed this week so similar but not quite going to be as bumpy as last week so keep that in mind as well Nick anything else you’d like to add or would you like to start

With your outright card yeah I’ll start with an outright card and I know you’re going to be in on it too I again I just this is the first time I think in over a year if not ever that my model has actually P pushed out someone in the 5 to1 range so

Without a hold percentage I have Scotty sheffler at 580 so I mean putting in a hold percentage and what I would actually do if this was our legal Market I’d probably have Scotty right around plus 4505 to one so I guess maybe a tiny bit of value for me on Scotty just don’t

Have room on the card right now so maybe I will wait and take a take a live bullet on him all right so I have Scott Stallings at 200 to1 Davis Thompson 200 to1 your boy and I guess my boy as well especially in the DFS space this week Kurt kittama at 90

To1 I dove and took Daniel Burger 150 to1 we don’t really need to take talk about that and then Grayson Sig 400 to1 I’m in between uh I did take a poting ticket early in the week I guess I could cash out I know that that’s uh gambling

Taboo here but they are offering me even money just to cancel that so uh JT post at 35 to1 was a ticket I punched yesterday I absolutely hate it I’d much rather go to Cory Connors at 6 to one or leave room for potentially I kind of

Like Adam Scott a little bit too here guys I’m intrigued by Burger what just a pure number grab on that one number grab yeah absolutely I saw 60 to one at one of the other books that I like my numbers had him at 82 to1 so to get 150

I like okay maybe it’s Daniel Burger it’s a watered downfield you know I know his numbers at farmers were Dreadful um but you know the ball striking comes back from the MX and of course that he’s pretty familiar with and has had success here back when his game was in form and

He was healthy I’ll take the talent of Daniel Burger yeah and you mentioned the bad numbers at Farmers he missed the cut so only one round of track data for him there so not a ton to go off of yet with Burger but strong numbers at the MX

Again another course rotation so only two out of four rounds counted there but he was among the looks like the top uh 15 in approach that week so I’m I’m interested in Daniel Burger we know he’s an Elite Talent been on the Ridder cup before he’s going to pop up at some

Point it’s just a matter of when and if you get that 150 to1 out there when there’s a 60 to1 I think that’s a smart way of going about it uh also one thing we didn’t mention this week everybody’s playing on the same golf course this week whereas the last few weeks we’ve

Had course rotations so a little bit less variance involved with just only having one course so that’ll also potentially favor some of the better golfers as we are in the fifth we’ve had five consecutive 100 to1 or longer winners when on the p tour this week but getting back into our outright bets

Spencer who you got on your card this week so I talked last week about Windam Clark being I would say at the time the most impactful outright I’d ever hit when I had him at 100 to1 at the US Open I I think doing it again at Pebble Beach

May end up matching that traction when all is said and done but I kind of glossed over this fact Roberto and uh I talked about how it wasn’t the most financially impactful so the most financially impactful outright for me came from Cory Connor during the 2019

Valero Texas open but I’m at 250 to1 as a Monday qualifier did that to win 31.25 units uh that is essentially what’s going to equate to between four to four and a half outright wins for me on that wager just with how I usually structure my card my model saw a big

Edge there I attacked it for as much as I could and it ended up becoming the biggest bet I’ve ever hit so I I do think Connors has a particular skill set that possesses much higher ceiling to win at specific venues than others I I

Don’t think it’s a fluke why he’s won at the Valero Texas open twice um and that’s his only two wins um I kind of already talked about some of that match play quality that I’m looking for Connors was always one of those guys at Austin Country Club who would see a

Boost in my model specifically there and and really it comes down to I grabbed him at 70 to1 he’s now fallen more into that 60 to1 range I still think there’s value in that number there uh We’ve historically seen TPC Scottdale as this venue where I guess I’ll use the the

Industry terminology here like it’s one of those courses of like team no putut golfers that are going to further increase their cealing for Success that are that that are able to do it because of their ball striking we saw the six Place grade for weighted total driving

And approach in my model that molded well with his top 15 return for The reprojected Strokes gain TAA green that I ran over the last 24 rounds and as I talked about last week like I came on this show with you Roberto I fully faded him in a matchup against Windham Clark

This is not a golfer that I’ve necessarily have been on from any of these weeks but you know I was impressed by his 31st I thought that was a course that didn’t really suit his game and now we all of a sudden get a venue here

Where if you’re telling me in the last eight years five of the winners we have Sheffer twice Woodland once Hideki twice those are not necessarily guys you think about as Putters those are ball Strikers you have the king himself of team no putt Kyle Stanley in 2012 who won this

Title like Connors has all the ball striking Acumen to actually capture this event I think it was a price that when it opened at 70 it was probably 20 points too high in the market I think at the 60s that you can find over on like a

Bet 365 it’s still 10 points too high so a bunch of value there to consider I bet OA batia at 66 to1 I think if this run with the putter ends up being something that we can expect to continue that his upside is through the roof he’s 47th in

Strokes game putting over his past 24 rounds 34th on similar green complexes when I ran it for this course uh those are going to be massively uh bigger totals that surpass the 106 Place Baseline that I have for him on any generic course think he’s a shot maker

That’s going to go For Broke the downside is if he goes Wayward and misses but says outright bet I’m going to shoot for the upside there and I told Nick this when we filmed better golf together uh there was only five players for me in this field who plac in the top

15 and when aggression ball striking and weighted scoring Scotty shuffler is one of them that’s why he’s won this tournament in back-to-back years and he’s also the best player Cameron Young Who my model that was kind of the one big selling point on him that I think

This is a better course for him uh Davis Thompson who I also bet at 200 to one I’ll get into a much shorter breakdown there in a second and then uh SEIU Kim then that would be included with oxe there so I I I think we’re we’re looking

At a player there in oet and a player in in Davis Thompson that there’s just a lot of upside that you’re going to get at the price I took Eric Van royan 125 to one love the form that he’s bringing to the mix here uh nine top 30 finishes

Globally in his past 10 starts I took Adam spencon 150 to one he was one of only 13 golfers in this field to crack the top 60 of all six statistical categories that I ran uh dve Thompson 200 to one now the Thompson one is intriguing to me guys because let’s just

Look for upside for a second that’s one of the things I did in my model I only looked at the seven biggest birdie or better holes that I could find I removed everything else from the mix number one in my model on those birdi or better

Holes that’s going to be the par fives the driveable par fours any of those shorter par fours um Scotty sheffler number one Justin Thomas number two Davis Thompson number three I don’t obviously he’s going to have to like hold himself together on the other 11 holes but we’re talking about a 200 to

One golfer right now that I’m willing to shoot for the upside there and then I WRA my card up with a golfer that I seem to be on every single week who has not made a cut so far this year Jonathan Vegas 350 to one don’t think the form is

As bad as it continues to be I’ve said this multiple times on the show that Farmer’s performance was really a bad round one couldn’t make a putt he shot himself down the leaderboard then he shot himself back up the leaderboard uh most of these miscuts are coming by a

Shot or two I I just thought 350 to1 was a really fun Dart throw um for a game that does match up ideally for TPC Scottdale I got a lot of overlap in y’all’s cards and I’ll start off by going with AE batia Spencer you said you

Got him at 66 to1 you can find him on our sponsor right now in the enhanced wind Market at 90 to one so as always be sure to shop around and Spencer we were talking about this off the air bet 365 has many of the best prices in the

Market as far as outrights go this week so I would absolutely highly recommend checking that out uh going through the rest of my card we’ve already had some overlaps so I won’t go into these too deep but SE Kim mentioned him in our early outright betting article yesterday

On Monday got him at 70 to1 he’s still out there at bet 365 at 65 to1 you mentioned that he is aggressive he is an absolute ball Striker we know that I think there’s some commonality between here and T CBC s grass in that you’ve

Really got to take on and hit some tough shots especially down the stretch and see Kim youngest winner of the player championship in the history of the PGA Tour he can get it done here it’s just an adventure with the Putter and speaking of adventures with the putter

Got Cory Connors he’s out there at 65 to1 on bet 365 as well very similar cap for him really strong off the te really strong with those long irons uh these are all guys who I think that we’re betting on this week the team no putt guys who could be Targets in major

Championships because of the long iron play that they possess and off the tea that really separates a lot of the big-time players and you’ve seen a lot of overlap between some major Champions winning this golf course at this golf course and then going on to win later uh

You mentioned matuyama kka Sheffer among those um continuing down my card got everybody else at Long Shots 9 to1 or longer Kevin Yu 90 to1 on bet 365 he went to college at Ariz Iona state so we should be very familiar with the course here in Scottsdale Desert Golf speaking

Of Desert Golf also am on Kirk kyama outright at 100 to one also a desert golfer having gone to college at UNLV shout out to run and Rebels and then I also have Luke list who has shown some signs of life with the putter when he won in the fall at the chicken

Championship over there in uh in Mississippi at the Sanderson Farms hasn’t had a lot of great putting since then but the ball striking has been really strong as it always is uh five straight tournaments where he’s gain on approach uh pretty strongly as well so I like Luke list in the outright market

And then I’ve also got Adam shank 120 to1 he is one of my two players who actually can putt who I bet on this week he can get lightning hot and his mid long irons are also pretty strong so like Adam shank’s chances of potentially pulling a Wham Clark and getting hot out

Of nowhere shooting a 63 maybe and vaulting up the leaderboard and then similarly I really like Taylor Moore at 200 to one this one more of a number grab he’s not as pure of a ball Striker as the other guys that I’ve mentioned but he can also get strong he can also

Get hot with his putter he is better with his longer irons than uh that is the strength of his iron play and which is why we bet him last year at the vbar so give me Taylor more at 200 to one and that is my outright betting card I’m

Still debating whether I want to venture into Cameron young potentially cuz while his PJ tour numbers aren’t strong he finished third in his most recent start on the DP World Tour so that was very intriguing he lost Strokes putting in that event at the hero Dubai Desert

Classic but gained over a stroke and a half per round on approach we know that he’s got Big Time game he’s contended in major championships and with him I think I saw a moment ago on bet 365 that he was sneaking out to 50 to1 uh let’s

Double check that he is 50 to1 on bet 365 so I think I’m going to add that as my Inon Play 50 to1 you mentioned the aggression I don’t know how safe he is this week I don’t think he’s very safe but for Pure upside I’m gonna add

Cameron young to my card at 50 to one so last week Roberto I I talked you a little bit into Windam Clark I think you may have sold me on the sewo Kim ticket uh that was kind of one of those names I I think think at

This point that’s going to be my inod play this week I will add SEIU Kim at 65 to1 that’ll give me a half unit that I currently have an exposure I was trying to save a little bit more just for the potential that I could like get to

Scotty Sheffer if that number drifted um but I think that’s one of the better prices that’s still currently on the board right now we’ve seen a lot of market movement where these numbers have dipped into either totals that are not betable anymore or potentially some of these spots where like most of the

Values go gone uh I still think that 65 to one number there’s enough meat left on that bone there to to punch that ticket so I’m going to join you here on seuk Kim and let’s hope for backtack inod plays that come in Let’s Do It um and just a plug for

Our Action Network golf content you can always check out our early outright betting card that’ll be up by noon Eastern every single Monday so we’re going to try to get you some bets on guys whom we think the market might move on and try to help you out because we

Know our podcast don’t come out until Tuesday night we don’t have our Best Bets out till Tuesday afternoon Tuesday evening and sometimes you got a guy like benan whom everybody was on in our group at 50 to1 now you look at it he’s 28 to1

On some books so we’re going to try to give you some kind of advantage or some kind of bets that might not be around when some of our other content comes out so be sure to keep an eye out for that as well also wanted to give a reminder

That the links and locks podcast is proudly presented by bet 365 bet 365 doesn’t do ordinary that’s why you can get more boost with them than anyone else every day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win more bet 365 boosts specific markets

Your winnings and even parlays and they don’t stop there keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boost check out the Boost and see why it’s never ordinary at bet 365 must be 21 or older and Pres in Arizona Colorado Indiana Iowa Louisiana

New Jersey Ohio Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky gambling problem call- 1800 Gambler or- 1800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions and restrictions apply all right guys we’ve gone through our outright betting cards let’s go through the rest of our cards this week Nick I’ll give you the T

Box that’s it for me just the outrights in Cory Conor’s uh top 10 I think so right right now my outright card has 0.5 units at risk so I was waiting for maybe Scotty to start a little slow and get like a six and a half 7 to one number

Probably not going to get that I think I’m going to hop on SEO and just call it a week and leave about a quarter to a third unit and play for live betting all right love it we’re all on SEIU we’re all on Cory Connors Spencer

Who else you on this week I mean right now that’s my card also I mean I have a couple plays that I’d like to just workshop with you guys that I had value on that I I don’t know if I’m necessarily going to get there on any of

These prices and it’s the outright card that I’m talking about just in top 10 forms so you know Connor’s plus 550 at bet 365 I think that’s one of the best values that you can still find on the board I don’t think that number will

Last I I think that will be gone uh very shortly so jump on that early if you like Connors this week here’s the three I guess that are the most intriguing that I at least want your guys’s opinion on senson for a top 10 10 to one uh van

Royan for a top 10 eight and a half to one Davis Thompson for a top 10 12 to one any of those catch your interest I’d go with Davis I like senson and I just feel like top 10 is a little too much upside for

What he possesses I think I look at him as more of a cut maker and maybe that’s just my data and my personal perception on him but he just he’s a cut maker to me I kind of like van royan I really like the approach numbers that he’s been

Super consistent recently with gang Strokes on approach eight of his last nine track tournaments and the one tournament on the PJ tour that wasn’t tracked in that span he won down there in Cabo so he also can putt well whereas I think there are some I think there’s

More upside with him than the other two guys Davis Thompson the putting and the short game isn’t super exciting for me and I just don’t think that his upside on with his irons is that high the only ones that we’ve seen where he’s really stood out with his iron play have been at

Rotational courses where we don’t have the full four rounds of data so I just think EVR has a little bit more upside but Davis Thompson can do it with the driver a little bit better than those other guys yeah I mean I think that’s fair if I was to power rank them I

I I I think they’re all very close um I might end up getting there on Thompson I I just think he’s such a boomer bus commodity to where you know he may miss this cut and come in dead last place and you may know that early on Thursday

Morning but I just think that if we’re shooting for upside that 12 to1 price is very intriguing I think van royan probably is the safest of that group which is why he’s probably also the I mean it’s plus 850 but he’s also the most likely of those three names based

Off of those prices um I just love the form that he’s bringing like he’s third this week entering the event when you look at uh par or better I think 27 consecutive rounds he has shot par or better on the PGA tour um that’s behind

Only hosler and I believe oxe so um you know there there’s a lot to like about him and and I think that you can take some of these upside Chances with guys like this whether that’s a top 10 Market or to win just because the the top of

The board does get shaky once we get past I’m going to say hom Sheffer and Thomas I agree I don’t have a ton of confidence in those guys between 20 and 55 to1 this week um and if I was putting together a DFS lineup I wouldn’t have many of those guys in

There either and I think you got to have one of Sheffer and Thomas and I I don’t hate the price on h i considered him at 20 to1 same outright but after he finished outside the top 65 in a 80 man field last week I think I’m going to

Pass but I don’t don’t think there’s that much significance to that poor finish we’ve seen hom bounce back before I I think I think H if if you’re looking at the three of them and you’re asking just the question like Scotty’s the most likely one to win if you’re asking which

One possesses the best value of the three I think it’s h i also considered that number I didn’t ultimately get there um but this is a nice bounce back spot for him I I don’t know why he didn’t perform at Pebble that should have been a perfect venue for him uh you

Know sometimes there’s just bad results that happen and there’s really nothing to point in that profile his for why that should have happened I mean just just go look at his results whether you you know want to bring it up on the official world golf rankings website or

Or wherever it is that you pull your data from on it I H has been Stellar for months now everything about his game is really solid so there’s really no terrible course fits for hom and yeah if you want to just buy the dip on him this week I

Think it’s a nice way to go about it um getting back into my card I have kyama for the top 10 that was my best bet I bet Kevin newu plus 550 for top 10 I’m also going to tail you guys on Cory Connor so all guys I’ve bet outright in

The top 10 Market I’m betting as well on team no Putt and then for luk list I’m goingon to go plus 330 for a top 20 just in case he doesn’t putt as well but that all those numbers are with Ty pton full by the way so really like all those team

No putt guys was considering Taylor Moore plus 350 for top 20 but I like Luke list at just about the same number uh as a much stronger ball Striker so that’s my card for the week fellas you want to hop into the rapid fire segment where we can go through all the guys

Whom we haven’t mentioned near the top of the odds board we’ll say 50 to one or shorter uh we haven’t mentioned Justin Thomas Guy whom I was on last week at 25 to1 in a stronger field now he’s 11 to1 got great course history here I think

Six of six times he’s played here all of them have been the top 20 I considered going with just a single dart on Justin Toms this week didn’t quite get there what would you guys make proper on JT this week and I’ll start with you Nick I have him at 13

To1 so he’s one of the guys who opened at 15 to1 on bet 365 but with shafley and havin withdrawing now he’s 11 to1 Spencer what would you make JT I had him at 14 and a half to one okay so you guys really like J

We mentioned H if I gave you an outright ticket on Jordan spe who’s currently 18 to1 on bet 365 or Sam Burns at 22 to1 or wiam Clark at 30 to1 which one would you take I’ll start with you Nick who’s the first one again Jordan

Spe 18 to1 yeah spe all day I I mean I I just want to preface this and say I would like the max Homa ticket o over all those options um I I I don’t I don’t know Rober like the I mean if you’re giving me a ticket

Obviously I would take one on I guess I guess give me Sam Burns but like that’s I don’t know if I necessarily want to be in that range outside of H I would go with wendam Clark For What It’s Worth but I feel like you’re trying

To catch the falling knife with him the week after he’s won so I would stay away from all three of those but moving on down in the 30 to1 range benan is 3 two to1 to win this week sunj m is 35 to1 JT Poston is 35

To1 and Matt Fitzpatrick is also 35 to1 if I give you a free ticket on one of those four guys Spencer who would you pick I don’t know Roberto at this point I have a problem I think I would just probably take sunj I know the form has been horrible with back-to-back finishes

That are just not what you want to see at the farmers and Pebble at two courses that you would hope that he would find success I I just think the problem with the Ben on number and I’m not necessarily even saying this as a as a

Negative for why I can’t win I think if you got him at 50 to one you you made a great bet I think now in this like 32 to1 range it’s a much different value um so I would be giving the Ben on answer solely because I don’t want to miss out

With the rest of the community at this point but I I think from a value answer I would rather still take sunjay but uh Ben on at 50 when that open was probably one of the better prices in the space four of his last five times here

He’s only played here five times have been top 20 finishes gain Strokes on approach every single time Nick if you had to choose between those four guys who would you pick give me the Steam on bad on just because it’s a free ticket I can’t chase a bad number now with my own

Bankroll but yes uh this this dude’s legit and the market seems to absolutely love him and I respect that so I’m in I’m B on we’ll do two guys in the next in the next grouping Min 35 to1 sahit theala is 37 to1 thoughts on those two guys which

Which ticket would you take if you had a choice between two Spencer I’ll take the gala if we look at what he did at this course in 2022 he should have won this tournament he ended up going in the water uh late in that event to to not get across the finish

Line but you know I think the gala is one of those golfers where he he will go for broken all these and it’s not minw Lee will also I I’m not necessarily saying that but like I guess I worry more so while neither one of them necessarily have the proximity numbers

That I would love to see for this course um I have some more concerns with minwoo from that 175 to 200 range if some of those shots do get pushed back a little bit further I think those are all very valid points and one thing that stands out to

Me about Min W Le is that he won twice over the fall period at the fortnet Australia PGA Championship in November in a pretty strong field and on the Asian tour as well in October but we don’t have any data from those events and he also had two other top six

Finishes at the Zozo where he was T6 and the Handa Australian Open where he was third but we don’t have data from those and and all of his other recent performances he’s lost Strokes on approach lost in five consecutive track tournaments but we don’t have data from

Those four where he’s played really well so I’m still trying to figure out who W Le is we know that he finished T6 at the Players last year where he lost Strokes on approach over a stroke per round T5 at the US Open where he gained across

The board so we know he’s got Big Time game but I’m not quite sure who he is exactly yet so I’m staying away but Nick if you had to choose between dalala and Min Lee who would you take the ticket on in the mid3 I’m gonna I’m gonna go with

Min Le I think he gets up for the crowd he seems to be a people pleaser the crowd loves him I’m going to go with minu as much as I don’t like his iron play and again I don’t really know who he is we know he’s a bomber I think he

Can make this course look pretty short and really tear up the par fives he could probably hit three would in 17 uh maybe even a hybrid knowing his length but I’m gonna go with mmu I think that’s kind of the contrarian answer I’m not really huge on theal this week I

Think a lot of people out there especially in the DFS world will kind of Chase that one you know top finish there but I’m I’m gonna go with menmo I think those two guys are really intriguing guys I’m really excited to watch the rest of the season on the PJ tour

Jumping into the 45 to1 range we got Hideki matama at 45 Tom Kim is 50 to1 cam young 50 to1 as well Spencer if I gave you an outright ticket on one of those three guys whom would you choose I will go the Hideki route I I think this

Is a this is one of those spots where back-to-back wins all those finishes that we’ve seen from him inside of the top 20 at this tournament he has shown flashes it maybe has not sustained over the course of an entire tournament yet but you throw them on a a course now all

Of a sudden where he has found historical success one of I would say probably the venue for him when he was at his peak of this was the course when he came here you knew you were going to get vintage hii every single week and uh

The upside numbers in my model liked him like he’s you have a bunch of players there like Cameron young and and him are like the like two of the big Boomer bus Commodities but I I kind of think keki has a better floor here than the general public would see to

Believe I think those are all very strong points and he’s also team no putut so one of the guys who just didn’t quite make our card because of the number but you like him if we get the free BET Nick do you agree with that assessment second I am second on that

Notion Spencer you mentioned that you have a ticket this week at 350 to1 on on Johnny Vegas Nick you have 200 to one out there as well who do you guys think is the longest price golfer right now who can win this event outside of maybe J Vegas

Whom we’ve already mentioned I’m gonna say Davis Thompson I’m gonna say it’s probably some combination of either Davis Thompson who I have the ticket on and then if you just want to mention a name that my model liked this week that I didn’t get to and

Um I mean at the price there’s there’s definitely a reason to consider it I I thought Nick Hardy was intriguing he was one of those guys who I considered as well I think he’s out there in 200 drop there good ball Striker yeah yeah if if there wasn’t Scotty

Sheffler and Justin Thomas at the top of the field I think I would have taken a few more flyers but at the end of the day they’re gonna have to be one of those two guys or both of those two guys and that makes things a lot more tough guys we’ve got

No I was just gonna say Roberto like I mean I I think I think chasing we’ve had five consecutive tournaments of winners over 100 to one I think all of us on this show would give the same answer that the reason why we have long shots has nothing to do with

That factor like things will return to the norm and and to the Baseline of what you would expect at some point it’s just specifically in this spot that if Sheffer or Justin Thomas or Max hom I I’ll include all three of those into that mix if one of those three don’t I I

Do think that there’s a general lack of projected win equity in my model either from a historical perspective or just guys that I Am Lower on than the market like I’m a little bit lower on Jordan spe when it comes to actual win Equity here so uh it’s fun obviously to look

Down this board and try to find all these values and if the top of the board crumbles I do think you have realistic opportunities here at that 200 to one plus range but it’s kind of to your point Roberto at at some point you don’t want to Stack your card so extreme in

That direction when Scotty Sheffer just ultimately goes out and three repats this tournament or Justin tht goes out and wins this event with all the form that he’s bringing to the mix so uh it’s very cautious approach from all of us I don’t think any of us have a ton of

Exposure in the units that we have at risk right now but I mean for me adding SEI wo it’s going to be a half of a unit in play I think for Nick it’s going to be a very similar answer like these are Dart throw chances that we’re taking

Where I’m taking six or seven names over I mean if I want to bet Scotty at 5 to one and I’m trying to bet to win seven units I’m at such a greater risk so I just can’t get there unfortunately with that way I would like to have exposure

On my card but um you know I will save some internment action potentially and see where some of these numbers get because there’s always value to be found Windam Clark was one of those Prime examples uh I I know people out there who wrote me on Sunday after the

Tournament was called they bet him at 300 and 400 to one after round one so there’s always value to be found in the market if you’re on top of it and there’s certain golfers that you like that maybe reach a price that all of a sudden becomes conducive to place the

Ticket on but uh I would just say I think all three of us have the sentiment be very cautious of the top of the board because uh there’s no point in overly stacking a card I think one key reason why we’ve seen so many long shots win is

The first two tournaments the century where there are a lot of collection areas where guys are hidden from the same spots uh short irons are a priority there and then you got a club count course at the Sony Open where it takes away the advantage of length and a lot

Of the long iron play that separates the good from the great players on the PGA tour and then you got three course rotations where there’s a little bit more variance added in and specifically at the AMX where there are three courses and at Pebble where those are two

Shorter groups of five courses and then at Tory Pines where a lot of guys go super low on Tory Pines North and then the other three rounds just try to hang on it just throws a little bit more chaos in there and for my money Matthew Pavone has been maybe the most

Impressive golfer relative to expectation entering 2024 there’s no way he should have been 100 to one given what we know now that number is never going to be around except for maybe in a maor major championship so I’m gonna Target Matthew Pavone as much as possible going forward I thought he

Would have been a nice player to find in this field this week but unfortunately he’s not here this week um but he won recently so he doesn’t to play last week at Pebble this week and then go to another signature event at Riviera next

Week which will be a blast by the way uh so it makes sense why he’s not here but I think that was just a misprice given that we didn’t have that much data on Pavone but if it’s not one of the top couple guys on the board this week we’ve

Got our shots at over 100 to one and maybe it cashes for a sixth straight week fellas great show thanks for hopping on with me today Spencer where can we find your stuff this week yeah so I will have uh last week I talked about Windam Clark in my outright article I

Will have my outright article out at Action Network on Wednesday we’ll get more into some of the sharp movers in the space where there’s still value to be found on the board ironically Clark was the only name of the bets that I had last week that still had value as we

Entered Wednesday I noted how I thought he should have been a 50 to1 golfer that you could still get into the 60s there so we’ll talk about that there I’ll have all my in tournament bets which have remained hot for the time being here 4 and0 last week on head-to heads two of

Those were pre- tournament two of those were in tournament uh we’ll have those plays out on the Action Network articles when they come in and as always you can find me on Twitter at T off Sports awesome let’s stay hot Nick you last week took Justin Thomas in our

Oneand done pool so nobody got more points than you unfortunately I also had Justin Thomas in our oneand done so didn’t gain any ground on me but I think we’re getting a little bit of Separation who where can we find your stuff this week and I’ll ask you guys about one and

Done in a moment because I forgot about that yeah it’ll be at better golf pod on Twitter and then at STI piix STI PKS on Twitter uh the DFS side of things has been extremely hot so far to start the PGA season so I am excited about that

The uh the 54 hole tournament last week helped a lot because we are very heavily exposed to uh wind Clark so I’m excited for that and a little bit of Mark hubard so that last lineup I had finished in the top 10 in all the tournaments I

Played it so I love that we’ll try to stay hot this week um but yeah I’m excited to hear you guys thoughts on one and done because I am a little a little uneasy on this one as of now I’m lean leaning Cory Connor yeah we in our outright cards

We’ve got a lot of Team not putut which doesn’t necessarily mean safety for oneand done and you don’t want to play you don’t want to burn JT or Scotty in a tournament that doesn’t have as much money as the Signature Events and the major championships so it’s an interesting decision this week uh

Getting into where you can find my work this week you can find all the stuff on Action Network golf whether it’s on the app on the website you can find us on podcasts be sure to check it out you can find me on Twitter Roberto a213 as well

And for one and done right now I’ve got SIU kimman there cure ball Striker I think he’s got a little bit higher for higher of a floor than the other guys that I’ve been on in the outright space this week I think this is a good opportunity

To get different this week week and maybe save save your big guns so I have a few other guys I’m considering Kevin you could be someone that’s a sneaky play this week I also consider mmu Lee just because he’s a total outlier but I he’s more of an unknown but I don’t

Think I want to use him yet Benny on I think will be very popular this week so I’m gonna stay away from him but right now I’ve got SE Kim as my oneandone Spencer what are you considering in one andone this week I want a vent for one

Second so Roberto I told you last week that I thought if you were in a bigger contest Windam Clark was the ultimate contrarian route to take in I took him in one of my one andd that has over a hundred people in the Action Network

Contest I got weasel and I know he was fine I got weasel into Colin morawa somehow I I I could have gone the entire season without taking taking Colin morawa and I would have been fine and I I am regretting that decision I wish I

Would have just gone uh with L Clark and both because it would be a much different contest at this point right now but since I didn’t do that and you know I got a couple hundred thousand from Colin and kind of sitting in the middle of the pack right now don’t love

To hear that Nick is gonna probably take Corey Connor because that’s where I am leaning right now all right you could take him and I will go with Adam Scott unless you guys talk me off him I feel like he’s going to be a very sneaky Play

No One’s Gonna talk about and one it done and he could top five this I like Adam Scott this week not just because I would rather you take a different name than me but I I think Adam Scott is a good pick this week all right so that’s our one and

Done thank you guys for hopping on the show this was a blast and hopefully we stay hot with another winner this week outright on the Pod once again you can find Nick on Twitter stick piix that’s sticks with an X you can find Spencer on Twitter tof Sports you can find me on

Twitter at Roberto a213 want to give a big thank you to everyone who makes this podcast possible especially our producers noan eer Hoffer David and Matt Mitchell and want to give a big thank you to you the fans for supporting this podcast and for being there because without you guys

None of this is possible so thank you and good luck this week here’s to hitting another outright at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open