AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am PGA Tour Preview and One and Done Golf Picks!

#PebbleBeachGolfPicks #PGATour #FantasyGolfPicks Our top golf picks including One and Done options for this week’s PGA Tour AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

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All right so I’m going to flash out the uh here are the odds uh these are the updated odds at DraftKings so you can take a look there Sheffer and maroy are the favorites at 8 to1 any of a drop to shaay and havland at 12 to1 Max hom 16

To1 kle spe and then the rest you can see here Justin Thomas 22 to1 and we go go and again remember there just 80 players uh to choose from so uh not a huge list but uh I think 80 is more than enough matter of fact I like it when uh

The feel I mean 50 I think is a little small but I like the 80 80 is a nice nice number so um I wish they would do I wish they’ do 80 but then still have a cut down to like 50 after a few days

But okay now one of the things I decided to do this week since now they call the Sentry a signature event but I mean it’s not I mean it’s such a small field and it’s um even though it’s bigger than normal now and let’s keep that look that’s the

Other thing we have to keep in mind I mean we’re talking about Murray and pavon but and Dunlap but Chris Kirk won the century and that’s when a lot of players showed up you know a lot of big names showed up in that one and Chris

Kirk that we should have we should have realized something was something was fishy something was going on so uh that’s uh that that was a tip off there but um what I wanted to take a look at was since this is the second of and and I don’t I think they

Count players but we don’t count I mean players we know it’s a big event so we don’t need to have the just like the century we don’t need the signature status there so there’s really only seven if you think about it and um last

Year the top seven uh we had uh who did we have let’s see last year we had Phoenix Genesis honor Palmer RBC Wells Fargo Memorial and travelers so those were like the real seven signature like I said I’m not counting uh players or Sentry or anything like that all right

So um and interesting because really there was only one long shot that won and that was kittama winning at Bay Hill other other than that but there wasn’t really I didn’t notice any specific trends like it wasn’t like you know besides Sheffer Sheffer is the only guy

But Sheffer did that every every event every you know the all year he was consistent yeah so some missed a cut in some events some guys were you know really good in some signatures but I did see some trends that we’re going to use uh and and those are the events of

Course that we’re going to use them from just so you know uh the rest of the season as we go through these Signature Events so and and I’ve talked about this last year with maroy all right because here’s the so look couple things with Sheffield maroy uh shefley yes he won a

Signature event last year but let’s also keep in mind he was such a good player such a dominant player was in almost all of these events and he only won once and remember the odds are 8 to one so if he wins one again which he probably will

It’s still I’d rather just not pick him at 8 to1 let him win one of seven it’s just going to cost me more if I have to go chasing him at 8 to one every event maroy remember we talked about this his earliest PGA Tour win is still 2012 at

The Honda you mentioned he’s going back there it looks like that was week nine March 4th so Rory’s never won out doesn’t mean that he might not be able to pick things up now with these bigger events early on the season um but it’s he did just win on the Euro he did

Just win on the Euro tour well on PGA events right yeah yeah but you know he’s he’s capable of winning in yeah and that’s the thing though that’s the trick is that he does the European tour deal early in the season so when he comes over here it just doesn’t look like you

You got the trip you got the maybe he’s you know where is he going to be living and he’s probably got all that distraction for the first few events that that takes him a little while to kind of get into things so I do think that that matters but you’re right first

And second in his his two Dubai uh uh events this year uh kind of blew the the the second place but he came from behind in the other one um and won that one because uh young kind of blew that but we we’ll talk about him in a little bit

But keep this in mind Rory in the six Signature Events last year that he played one top five one in six Signature Events that was the runner up at Arnold Palmer surprising kind of kind of goes with his disappointing performance between Rory and schaffler I mean I’m I’m not and I never

Considered either this week as a bat um yeah I would heavy favor I would lean towards yeah aine toward cheffer I think yeah me too he’s more consistent is um yeah I I trust his approach you Rory’s best weapon is obviously his driver and that’s that’s mitigated a bit here at

Pebble so okay and then we’ve got shafay and hland and my top pick is is chafl matter of fact it’s between chafl and hom for me and one and done as well and um I don’t it’s not that I take chafl a lot because I don’t but I’m I’m kind of

Feeling it here with him he’s got seven at by the way he he made all seven Cuts in the Signature Events last year five of those were top 25s three top 10 two top fives and a runner up so he was very good in the Signature Events um he was

Third as I mentioned at the US Open here in 2019 only played here at Pebble once at the proam deal 60 thck in 2017 but that was 2017 when he was the 300th rank player in the world so I don’t care about that this year 9th 3rd and 10th so

He’s got that Groove going we talked about you know the pavans and stuff and maybe you know not going to be uh hey I haven’t played in uh I played once in the last month or so six of his Seven Pro wins by the way came after mid June

If you want to look at that as a negative but that was the century you know a significant event enough um y but he has not won and this is something we’re going to talk about he has not won since back to back in 2022 July of 2022

When he won Travelers in Scottish open I he’s done everything but win it’s crazy he hasn’t won how well really he’s he played all last year he’s open this season like you said with three straight top 10 and the crazy thing about this season so far he’s lost Strokes putting

At the century and it he lost three Strokes putting at the farmers last week and still came in ninth place that tells you how good the ball striking has been um like you said limited experience here but did play well in that US Open um POA is his best putting surface well there

You go done well in he’s done well in California in general so um I love I you I still love Xander I have no no issue with the bat out I’d like to see him get off the schneide here and get a win uh by the way havland was 12th at the US

Open in 2019 13th in this event last year um but he only had two top 10 and seven Signature Events last year and one of them was a win winning Memorial um 22nd century that’s it that’s all we’ve got from Victor havan this year so I’m gonna I’m I’m gonna wait for Victor

Havan I definitely think Zander the the way to go because he’s definitely more in tune with his game right now than uh than havland right so havin played century did he has he played since then did he I don’t even know if he play yeah so it’s been you know three three four

Weeks for him he did havin did also win the US amateur here at Pebble um so he he’s definitely got some good vibes at the course but um yeah haven’t seen enough from him to B him at that number all right hom 16 Klay and spe 18 and

Yeah hom if you’ve been watching our show for the past year and so uh you know this is no-brainer that uh we’re going to have hom on our list and of course you have him at the at you’re you’re you’re considering him one and

Done just like me you have at the top of your list and your picks this week um why not 16 to1 you’re getting double the money with hom than you’re getting with maoy and Chef which again I just think is a no-brainer in in a week like this uh H his last

Three trips here we’re all top 15s he hasn’t played to this event in a few years though but he does have two top 10 and he right now he has 10 straight top 15s worldwide with a win that was the win over at the Ned Bank uh in Europe uh

13th last week and uh six of his Pro wins by the way and this is interesting six came with at least two weeks off h did you know that know that did not know that I know that a lot of his per wins have come in California which I

Um he he is the best POA putter in this field um he’s he’s puted he’s putted well in his previous performances like you said um 10th 14th and seventh in his last three trips here to to me H is just he’s the best combination this week of a

High-end player who is in good current form and also has good course history here there’s really not many guys that check all three of those boxes um yeah 14th at Century 13th at Farmers he hom gained 8.7 Strokes T to Green at Century he gained 5.7 Strokes T green at Farmer

So he’s hitting it really well he can definitely get hot on these greens he’s won in California he’s won you know some of these bigger events um yeah he home is a bet for me and he’s likely who I’ll end up going with in one and done by the

Way the so the other signature is Genesis right Genesis is a signature okay and he’s got two wins there uh just one just one but but’s but he’s played well I so that’s what I’m hoping I’m hoping everyone is saving H for that and that he’ll come in pretty low owned this week

Yeah that’s the other good thing about this particular week uh and others really in general when it when you get into these Signature Events but um it’s not like the previous weeks where you’re it seems like you know in these in the one of done contest you

Can have uh yeah I won this week but uh 50 other guys won I can’t imagine that’s gonna be the case this week you can you can you can have so many different varied opinions about which way you’re gonna go this week yeah it should be spread and again we you

Know we should remind people this is a $20 million prize pool this week which is higher than anything besides the players you know the price pool this week is even higher than it is for the major so you definitely want to use a high-end player in one and done this

Week okay and then the others can’t lay and spe now Jan uh one of her two one and duns is Klay and uh spe is one of those where I just think you can’t you know he he I took him he was I believe he was my one

Andone last year in this and he was and it was pretty much the worst he’s ever played here um but he’s made all 11 of his Cuts nine top 25s six top 10s four top fives a runner up in 22 and a win in 17 he’s coming off a third at Century

Before that sixth at hero so he hasn’t played a lot though um and this is uh also kind of interesting in the six Signature Events last year he missed the cut twice but whenever he made the cut four times he finished second fourth fifth and sixth uh he was disappointing

65th at the US Open back in 2019 so you do see and remember this is the thing we have to keep in mind with guys like spe will get to day in a little bit maybe even can’t lay in a second never miss the cut play well here at Pebble but now

All of a sudden you’re throwing in all the best players of the world this week playing on the golf course even though they’re not changing the golf course as far as I know it’s still the same golf course they got the amateurs out there for a couple of days so it’s just the

Same Golf Course except more prize money and better players and that makes it a lot harder for these guys that have dominated here over the years yeah and and with spe his course history is definitely baked into his odds right like if if this wasn’t a course where he

Has played so well he’d be 25 or 30 to one so um he’s not a bet for me K klay’s more interesting because of the course history here and because it it should be a perfect fit for his game and I do think if you can get you know 18 I’ve

Even seen kentley at 20 to one in some other spots it’s definitely um tempting I he just he he hasn’t played played well I mean he was okay at Sentry he finished 12th 52nd at American Express 56th last week at Farmers he lost Strokes off the te and on Approach at

Farmers last week which I mean I’m looking through his number okay well the LA last time he did that was at the century the previous year so it had been over a year since he’ lost Strokes both off the te and on approach so something seems a little off with his game not

That he can’t figure it out over the next few days here but um that that was just enough for me to to not bet kley yep uh made six of six cuts and he has um I believe both of his top fives have come in his last two appearances 2022 and

2021 then you have morawa at 20 to1 Thomas at 22 to1 and O at 25 to1 so now we start getting to a couple some interesting players here because morawa is one of is either Homer or morawa for you with the one and done and Justin

Thomas is one of your picks this week and absolutely I mean we both love Thomas this week so uh and then oar is just Oar um and he kind of oar is a dangerous one this week because he kind of does fit the profile of what’s going

On this year it’s just you know we’re getting these because let’s keep in mind too the guys that are winning have never like some of them I believe well Murray won like 2017 but the other guys Haven won before well Kirk of course but so we are having new time firsttime PJ tour

Winners now o Wen of course in the fall so it I don’t know seems like obar might be one of these guys that could fit what’s going on right now and he’s trending the right way 47th 30th 9th last week so he’s getting better each each time out because remember early on

The first thing I said when he was out there I think it was at the sentury look I just can’t take the guy until he starts getting a little bit familiar with playing with the big boys playing in the fall is completely different the spotlights on now you’re playing with

Tougher competition and it does look like that’s happening ninth last week um morawa I was morawa is a dangerous one he had one top 10 in seven Signature Events last year that’s bad he had three miscuts in Signature Events last year um he’s also coming off a Miss cut okay so

These are bad things but he’s actually a good player coming off a Miss cut he does pretty well so statistically speaking he also has a win after a miscut and so there are some good things there let’s also keep in mind that he only had one top 10 in four majors last

Year which is not like him at all so he just did not have a good year so that’s why I’m trying to say there are some bad things to look at but you have to be realistic that he just end up a good year last year and that’s why he didn’t

Play well in the big events including the majors um but what’s also remember the miscut last week the previous three events fifth seventh first so he was definitely playing really well he only missed a cut by a shot and if he would have just made the cut who knows what

Could have happened if he had a good Saturday um and and uh anyway you you like him for a oneandone yeah Mo morawa won the uh Open Championship the week after missing a cut there you go remember that um I bet him that week which was nice see now

That you would remember and yeah he I mean he he had an awesome Wednesday at Tory um had a you know poor Thursday I know he drove it out of bounds on 17 which is you know what ended up costing him the cut line so I’m not super

Concerned about that I still think he’s he’s hitting it well he’s he’s playing well in general he’s a good fit here I mean you know he is again he’s second um in this field in that proximity from 100 to 125 yards he’s second on in Strokes G approach in general you know

He is one of the best iron players and that’s super important at Pebble with these small greens so you know he merow does not have much of a history here which is a little scary but I do think this course should be a good fit for him

I was I was basically down I was I was looking at hom morawa and Justin Thomas as like my three bats for the week and I knew I was going to pick two of them and I just ended up going with home and Justin Thomas but you morawa was right

There as a potential bet for me yeah I mean Justin is just on fire as as we know fifth fourth third third and his last four uh if you look at it and also remember he did not have a good year last year but six top 25s in seven

Signature Events last year two top 10 and one top five he had nine top 25s I’m not talking Century he had nine top 25s all year six of them came in Signature Events and that’s when he wasn’t playing well last year so now he’s coming to the first

Signature event on fire his game is just as as good as it could be he did play here but that was all the way back in 2014 nobody cares when he missed a cut back then and um this is also kind of interesting again this would be a second

Appearance seven of his PGA Tour wins have come in his first second or third appearances at an event um and he’s never about this one he’s never won a PGA Tour event on his third straight week of action so he’s a guy that needs rest or

Prefers rest which is okay you know I mean not everybody’s Eric Cole but you take a look at uh last week remember he decided to not play and maybe that was part of it is that you know what I’ve got these other big events coming up I

Don’t want to be in that situation where I’m playing three or four straight weeks yeah for sure um and you know Justin Thomas is kind of similar to morawa and that the the course history is not good there’s not much of it like you said he

Missed the cut in 2014 he he ALS he did also miss the cut at the US Open here in 2019 yes he did had at a stats that week he just putted poorly the ball striking was fine and you know Justin Thomas can putt poorly he he does that quite often

Which you know is the concern but um he he is a pretty good POA putter I believe it’s his his best putting surface and he’s just another guy like moraa I think this course should fit him well again off the te stuff is mitigated a bit here

It’s not as important that that tends to be Justin Thomas’s weakness he can get a little wild off the te but as far as um you approach play goes he’s excellent you look at if you look at over the last two years that 100 to 125 yard range he

Is second best in this field he hasn’t been quite as good over the last 12 months just because his game dropped off a little bit but you know when he’s on he’s an excellent wedge player the reason the biggest reason I end up betting Thomas instead of morawa I don’t

Know if you’ve looked at the weather forecast yet no but Sunday they’re forecasting like 40 mile per hour winds okay at at pppa beach which is right on the ocean like that that’s gonna be insane if they play through how about rain type of wins there’s a lot of rain

Throughout the week um no that should fa the heavier hitters then yeah but so Thomas is excellent in the wi I know I remember when he won the Players uh whenever he won the the players it was super windy That season if you look at

So over the last two years uh the best players in windy conditions number one is Scotty sheffler number two is Justin Thomas then if you’re interested the rest of the top five Xander your guy is number three so that’s that’s good Sun JM is fourth best and Rory maroy is

Fifth best so um some of those are the best players in the world they they are but I mean again you look at like someone like Colin morawa he’s way down that list he struggles in the Wind um I can maybe I’ll maybe I’ll tweet out um that full list of you know

How these guys do in the wi but there Al there there are some higher end players who struggle in the wi so that that was honestly what pushed me to Justin Thomas is if they do end up playing on Sunday in those super windy conditions I’d much

Rather have uh Justin Thomas than morawa well actually yeah I think if anything maybe what it is is one of those deals where the stat is more towards which guys don’t play well in the wind you know like which which quarterbacks uh can’t throw the ball you know in the

Rain you know that kind of stuff um yeah yeah taking a look at the weather so Friday uh rain showers 54 10 to 15 M hour chance of rain 60% um what I of course what we don’t want to see is thunderstorms and I don’t see any on on Friday uh Saturday few

Showers um chance of rain 40% no wind Sunday like you said rain and wind um showers in the afternoon 56 20 to 30 70% chance but again I’m glad that we don’t see thunderstorms that’s the big deal so yeah it’s gonna be it’s gonna be a bit sloppy out there which honestly I

Like uh hom too if the conditions get kind of sloppy I remember he won um what was it it was it was it TPC a Avan now whatever that uh the uh Wells Fargo a couple years ago it was like super super rainy and cold and windy so

He’s a guy like uh when the conditions get bad by the way so so morawa um you know 21st in this field in windy conditions so you know 21st out of out of 80 not not great not horrible none of these guys are too far down the list but

He definitely takes a hit when it gets windy all right now let’s get to the next uh group grouping that’s the 30 to one the you know 60 to1 kind of uh uh you know roundabout numbers and um I tell you what let’s let’s talk

About tell you what this is as good as time as any I’m going to flash the picks there are the picks so there you see Jared we’ve already gone through his first two picks I I’ve only used one of my picks up but I’ve got a couple others

Coming as you can see so let’s get into them so a couple of my picks this week include Cameron young and my boy I have to go with them and that’s hoard young is at 40 to1 hoard’s at 45 to1 and with young uh this is uh something that I did

Notice because I kind of figured it was the case and I did the research and it did kind of equal equate to uh something that you want to keep an eye on uh and maybe uh give him an edge this week since uh a full-time PJ card member in

2022 when he scored a top six six of his next seven events were top 20s including second second seventh and eighth what does that say well once he has a good week he he he tends to capitalize on that and get into a Groove and he was

Third at dubas I remember now maybe should have won but um let’s keep in mind where he was coming from I believe what was it this offseason changing his equipment I believe and so he had to get used to it so now it looks like he is um

So I’m going to I’m and and you know the conditions being what they are you know the bombers might be coming into play so I think Young might be a solid stick with a hot guy and hey he hasn’t won yet so I also think that could uh work into

His favor and then the other one is hoard and let’s just keep this in mind hoard this time last year was 142nd in the world okay so uh eight top fives worldwide since then three Runner ups and a win now we talk about are you winning on the PJ tour you know or

Competing or are you doing that in big events well keep this in mind during the streak he was second at nedbank to Max hom who won the event all right he was also second at punana few months back PJ tour he was six at the SC a shopin where Rory maroy

Won so and biggest of all was his win in the DP TOUR Championship holding off Victor havland you know and and a bunch of others John ROM and so forth so he’s that good this is say fluke this is a guy that’s battle tested confidence to skyh high with the second place finish

Last week and because of that I think he’s a solid play this week um but I think both of those guys are intriguing and that’s why I took him yeah hoard um that proximity range 100 to 125 yards he’s 13th in this field so you know just missed the top 10 but

TS to do well with those wedges um yeah I don’t I think La I think last week was a better fit for his game just because he’s such a long driver of the golf ball and you know that again that doesn’t matter as much here but um yeah he like

I’m with you he’s he’s an awesome player he’s going to win on the PJ tour very soon all right now some other guys in this uh in in this area here I mean look Benny an is 40 to1 I would like a little bit better odds for on yeah um which is

Why it didn’t go his way but you know everybody knows how we feel about him and he’s a dangerous player let’s keep in mind he was 16th at the US Open in 2019 so also 37th last year here so we got his feet wet four top fives two own

Upts in his last seven so you know how he’s playing uh Jason day at 45 to1 uh 13 at 13 Cuts 11 top 25s 8 top 10s five top fives runner up in 2018 uh did not play Pebble last year but that was probably because he saved his time for the signature event

Following week at Phoenix and the week after and he finished fifth at Phoenix and Ninth at Genesis so plays a good Brandon golp this time of year also 21st at the US Open in 2019 the only problem with me with Jason day was uh he’s not

On top of his game right now he’s coming off a miscut and even though he made 13 and 13 Cuts he never won and now the field is loaded so those are all things I was a little bit uh you know but I mean you have to obviously keep him in

Mind yeah day is similar to Klay to me where you know these guys have excellent course history um but they’re just they don’t seem like they’re you know on their aame right now r to win you know not to say they can’t but I I wish I wish day had played

Better you know both last week and at American Express where he finished just uh 34th that week so doesn’t doesn’t seem like he’s he’s got it right now uh some other interesting notes from players in this area here another player that we got to start keeping an eye on

You have him on your fantasy team and that’s Bo Hustler Bo Hustler’s made now eight straight cuts coming off of six last week he had a second at Zozo uh in the fall six Pro Runner ups and three Runner UPS on the PGA tour so he’s getting close 11th on this course last

Year third the year before that so he really likes the golf course as well so if you’re looking for a long shot in this area I definitely think he’s there and I he almost made my list Poston a lot of people taking him I took him a

Couple of weeks ago as a oneand done he’s made 12 straight cuts 10 top 25s seven top 10 three top fives in a runner up um but in six Signature Events last year he missed the cut five times and finished 38th in the other that means

You know what let’s see how he does in his first signature event of 2024 and if he misses the cut again then you know what to do the next time it comes around but that kind of scared me off you have one of your picks here at

50 to1 Eric Cole 15th year last year um and this guy just is a machine now last week he missed the cut and maybe it was the best thing for him because he had uh 18 straight cuts he had made going into that but I say that because this is

Going to be his uh fifth straight week of playing and last year he went through a streak of nine straight weeks of playing this guy just plays I mean I think might be he just started to play well and might have been like hey man

This is good I’m making money I just got to keep going out there and playing as long as I’m making Cuts but maybe the miscut last week was the best thing for him yeah and tor’s is just not a good fit for his game you know he’s he’s not a

Long driver so wasn’t a total shock that he missed the cut last week it doesn’t really concern me now listen I I have questions about whether Eric Cole can win this event right because he’s still looking for that first win is he really gonna get it at an elevated event so

That’s the concern here I I just had to bet him because the numbers I’m looking at just absolutely love AIC Cole this week but basically I think he’s a perfect fit for this course he’s actually second in my model it’s it’s got shuffler one then it’s Eric Cole 2

And then you know right behind Cole is here let me pull it up right behind Cole it’s you know Xander morawa havin so it’s you know it’s Cole and all these other you know studs um at the top of the model so just looking at Eric Cole

Over the last 12 months he’s sixth best in this field in approach he’s first in that proximity range we talked about 100 to 125 yards he’s first on short par fors par fors between 350 and 400 yards which there are a bunch of on this course um like you said place here last

Year I also looked at just in general courses under 7200 yards which Pebble Beach is Pebble Beach is one of the shortest courses on the PGA tour um Eric Cole over the last two years third best in this field on those short courses so just kind of everything points his way

Having a good week this week I think he’s like an excellent top 10 BET um again whether he can win we’ll see but you know 50 to one was enough for me to take a shot hey you know what he kind of does fit the model of what we’re seeing

This year so uh that uh these are the types of guys that we have to be keeping an eye on uh yeah because the other thing too keep this in mind that the players that did win um this year even the last three pavon Murray and Dunlap pavon had never played ever

At Tory Pines D laap of course had never played uh at that Golf Course ax and Murray was making his second appearance he missed the cut in his first appearance so hey you know if you have one appearance or no appearances which a lot of these guys do because again some

Of these don’t play at Pebble at the proom I’m not going to worry about it this week all right um next grouping and then you have by the way matama is in that at 65 to one Adam Scott almost made my list but he kind of dropped to 55 to

One that worries me a little bit but I do like the way he’s playing keep this in mind in his last four events all top sevens the last time that he played in four events straight and all had top 10 was 2016 so that’s how well Adam Scott’s

Playing matter of fact you have to go back to um 2016 being the year that was the last time that he was actually a great player he was ranked the last time he was in the top 10 he was a seventh ranked player in the world that’s how

Well he’s playing right now and in his last three Signature Events last year he finished all in the top 20 two top 10 and one top five so these are good signs that maybe Adam Scott who was seventh in the US Open in 2019 might I mean hey you know what I

Don’t only have a couple more years of being that cuz this is a guy that used to like take a lot of time off didn’t play a whole lot was you know his family was very important and he just was never that guy that was like all golf golf

Golf you just get the feeling that he’s kind of maybe at that point where you know what I only got a few more years of this and my kids are starting to grow up and you know let me let me be let me be selfish let me be let me take care of

Myself here and see if I could do something so that’s why I think this year is a good year for Adam Scott maybe to win again but the 55 to one I was a little concerned with he and Scott has been excellent at Riviera where we’re

Going in a couple weeks including a win back in 2020 so yeah there you go yeah I’m I’m not betting this week I’d like to see him play well and you know get some reps in this week I’m not sure if he’s playing at Waste Management next

Week probably not I assuming I would assume he’s taking a week off but um def definitely someone who I’ll be looking to bet at Genesis uh one of my other picks is Denny McCarthy and this should not be a surprise at 70 to one uh this

Is a really good week for him his last two trips to Pebble fourth and 12th a combined 26 on the par uh he you know he’s playing decently well first two events this year H you know okay but last two events of last year 10th and fifth five of seven Signature Events

Last year were in the top 25 so he really played well in these events four of those were top 15s three top 10 and he was runner up at Memorial I think the combination of him playing well in the sign Signature Events he’s played well

Here before I think and he’s never won a PJ Tour event I think this might be a good sign for Denny to be in contention this week yeah I think it’s a good course for him you know shorter course um and he he’s the second best pup hter in this field

Behind very nice to hear uh let’s also talk about some of these other long shots Justin Rose is 80 to one again he won last year and he was third at the 2019 Us open as we talked about before the problem is his game is just not very good right

Now yep exactly same you know similar deal to KL and Jason day that’s what I’m saying even it’s a tough week because the guys who have played here often and played well like aren’t coming into the event playing well then you have guys who are playing well coming into the

Event they just don’t really have any course history here so it’s you know it’s tough to find uh anyone that you know kind of checks all the boxes all right and then we’re going to go into a couple more of my long shot picks um one’s on my fantasy team just picked him

Up and he’s in your stats bazun uh 90 to1 and uh the other one is Patrick Rogers at 80 to1 uh so uh we do have him on your stats which is nice he was 14th a pebble in 2022 so that’s good last seven events he has four top 10 two top

Fives worldwide including of course the second place finish couple of weeks ago and then you have uh Rogers same thing like Scott a little bit in his last four events all top 25s he has not had four straight events of top 25 since 2015 and he’s never had five straight

Top 25s on the PGA tour before so uh that’s how well he’s playing he’s coming off a Ninth Place finish last week he’s only made one of five cuts at Pebble that was an eighth in 2018 but uh again he does he is familiar with the golf

Course and he is playing better than he’s played before coming into this event uh Todd is also uh in this level he’s at 90 to1 you mentioned him uh Todd has four top 20s and 10 appearances three top 10 and runner up to Justin Rose last year so that’s important he’s

Made 11 straight cuts with three top 10 and a runner up at John Deere um he is not won a PG Tour event since 2019 and another one Taylor Montgomery is one of Jan’s top two uh one and done plays along with Patrick Klay so she’s got a

Sleeper here in Montgomery uh who uh in his last four events three of them are top 15s including an eighth at the RSM that’s interesting I I wish we had Jan on so she could tell us why exactly she’s on Montgomery this week this doesn’t this doesn’t seem like the best

Course fit for him um but I’d be curious to see what she’s thinking there um yeah again Todd is like a perfect fit here he’s played well here in the past I don’t trust the guy to win um but but I think if you’re looking to make like a

Top 10 bat that brenon Todd makes a lot of sense and then rounding out your long shot uh and he has dropped from 200 to 130 so maybe some other uh uh handicappers picked up on something but you tell me why why Mark hubard at 130 to one so basically it’s because

Mark hubard led the entire field last week in Strokes G approach ah he was the the best player in the field on approaching and even longer term you look over the last 12 months he’s the seventh best best player in this field on approach now he has other holes to

His game he’s not the best driver he’s not the best putter um but when it comes to approach which is very important at Pabo here again a shorter course but with really small greens you need to be super accurate approach play matters a lot here and Hubbert has made three

Straight cuts here gotten better each time 55th 33rd 20th um again you know can can Mark hubard win an elevated event I’d say no but we’ve also you know seen uh these past four weeks guys winning that we weren’t expecting so you know uh few few bucks on hubard at at 200 to

One or even you know 130 to1 I don’t know I’m not I’m not as interested at 130 to1 but shop around I’m sure you could probably still find them at 200 to one somewhere uh some uh maybe some Bargains uh you want to take a look here

Look he’s not on top of his game but still Ricky fow is 110 to one I mean that’s big that’s a big number for Ricky Fowler yeah so uh keep that in mind Maverick mcneel is someone that maybe we’ll start paying more attention to because again he was injured for a while

But he’s starting to get back into the swing of things and I believe I think he has a good history at this golf course yeah he has two top fives at this golf course at 150 to one uh your boy Luke list is 150 to1 your boy Adam senson is

150 to1 uh my boy Taylor Moore who has come by 19 under par two top 20s and two uh appearances here is 180 to one Lucas Glover who’s on your stat list is I believe is on the stat list at 180 to one I think he was I think he’s on the

Stat list yes yeah he’s second best in that proximity range okay um I I remember look there was a reason I looked in him there’s reason I didn’t take him I think he is he just not playing yeah he’s not playing all that well lately Yeah Yeah well yeah 29th of

Century miscut at Sony um he he actually hit the ball well at Century he did not at Sony he he’s he’s a fine long shot play If you’re looking for one yeah and speaking of long shots I while I do see we’re talk that’s why I saying I think

That even though yeah signature event better players more money you should start seeing this this long shot stuff go away but I think that there’s still reason for it this week and that is if you take a look at it in general the history of pebble is about long shots

That’s the history of pebble we can go back to Gary Woodland even though he was a top 35 player nobody expected Gary Woodland to run away and win the US Open he was never good at Majors then you take a look at the guy before that was

Uh grah McDow he was just okay it wasn’t nobody was expecting him to win a US Open it was his first major win that was back in 2010 and then if you take a look also generally at um at uh the history of of this golf course we can and and

Because I’m not going to use any of the trends because they’re all different you know that we’ll get back into these Trends next year if it’s not a signature event you know talking about obviously the field and the fact that with two courses instead of three two days

Instead of four for proam so’s a lot you know but if you look at it the last 12 firsttime winners at Pebble Beach ranked 142 before winning so there’s a lot of long shots that win at Pebble also we mentioned the ones at the US Open I mean

So guys the the the top guys just don’t seem to win very often even in the US Open at Pebble Beach and if you’re thinking this is going to be an exciting event down to the last stroke well there has not been a playoff at Pebble Beach

Since 2008 and only four of the last 20 winners won by one stroke so 16 of the last 20 winners had breathing room that’s interesting and that’s a long time to not have a playoff right seen such a good hold it’d be nice to see it come down to that um did we

Mention did we mention Nick Taylor no we didn’t he’s interesting to me 110 to one um he’s again first on our course history list um including the win in 2020 and he missed the cut at the American Express but he he came seventh at the Sony Open with awesome approach

Play he gained 5.7 Strokes on approach that week um so him that week yeah I’m kind of surpris yeah I I uh well yes I bet him the Sony yep um he was in the mix uh like Midway through Sunday before kind of tapering off but um yeah I’m a

Little surprised he’s 110 to one just based on the history so I think he’s a he’s a pretty good long shot bet yeah six top 30s out of nine with that win in 2020 yep yeah that’s a good one and joerger by the way joerger now the odds

Aren’t all that good because he started at 90 to one he’s dropped all the way down to what 6 65 to1 I think 55 to1 75 to1 now so that’s a little bit better but he’s he now made 20 straight cuts and remember we talked about the fact

That he had one top 10 in those all those cuts he was making we said yeah but he he’s not in contention won Top 10 well now he’s gotten into contention so the next time he’s there watch out so and I I know he didn’t he didn’t he

Didn’t close the deal at Tori but it didn’t it didn’t seem like it was like too big for him it didn’t seem like he was like super nervous and like kind of choked he just kind of didn’t have it on Saturday missed a few short putt so I I

Thought it was a pretty encouraging performance I I definitely think you know he he could close the deal next time he’s in contention and uh by the way Kevin Yu um who’s Chun on youu uh is 90 to1 somewhere in that range 80 to1 to start the week seventh last year at this

Event and his last two on the tour Sixth and third now he really has come from nowhere so I still think 90 to1 believe it or not is a little low like I said Ricky fow is 110 to1 but Hey Kevin U’s got something going on

Right now so he’s never won a pro evento never sure of any kind so yeah he yeah he’s interesting I know he’s a bomber um which makes sense he would have played well at Farmers again you don’t really need to be a bomber at Pebble but like

You said he came seventh at Pebble he was also sixth at John Deere last year which is a short Golf Course um he was 21st at the Sony Open in 2023 which is a shorter golf course so despite the fact that does Bound the ball he’s played pretty well at these short courses