AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM DFS Preview – Picks, Strategy, Fades | The First Cut Podcast

Rick Gehman and Greg DuCharme preview the year’s first signature event at Pebble Beach from a DFS perspective.

Intro, Course Breakdown: 0:00
10k: 8:46 | Headlined by Rory McIlroy making season debut
9k: 21:13 | “Patrick Cantlay is way underpriced” in the 9k range
8k: 29:16 | Tommy Fleetwood, headline the 8k range
7k: 38:15 | 2023 champion Justin Rose finds himself in the 7k range
6k: 44:00 | Nick Dunlap’s professional career begins in the 6k range

#golf #pgatour #golfoncbs #firstcutpodcast #attpebblebeachproam

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ABOUT THE SHOW: The First Cut brings you everything you need to know in the world of professional golf. Nearly every day Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Mark Immelman, Greg DuCharme, Sia Nejad and Patrick McDonald bring you the best analysis in the game. From DFS to betting previews, interviews and recaps… everything golf is on the table when you listen to The First Cut.

Freaking first cut Golly welcome to the first cup podcast I’m Rick gaming and this is your DFS preview for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach proam an event that will look a little different than previous years joining me to break it all down Greg du charm is here hey Greg hey Rick uh

Looking forward to this one our second technically our second signature event of the PGA Tour season at a great venue at a great time of the year right in between Championship Sunday and Super Bowl Sunday um this should be a good one it’s interesting because yes technically

The century was a signature event but to me this feels like the first signature event in that it’s that 80 player field no cut this is kind of what the rest of them are going to look like and you mentioned the the venue you know we haven’t

Seen this caliber of field descend on Pebble Beach in a long time this is usually uh an event that doesn’t necessarily Garner a very strong field but that is very much changing this year well you look through a lot of these top players as we’ll cover their record at

Pebble is very limited um you know some players have one AT&T Pebble Beach proam some have they play it every year but some have played one or two and then a US Open in 2019 so it is going to look a little bit different it also traditionally has

Three courses in the rotation this year only two with Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill and the last thing I believe will be different and I know will be a factor is we’re going to have some different weather there it’s going to be uh not the most ideal weather for playing golf

It’s gonna be wet it’s supposed to rain like from Tuesday on it’s supposed to rain except Saturday you might get a little reprieve okay um but definitely Wednesday Thursday Friday Sunday and cold in the low 50s this is the event that went to Monday last year isn’t it

Justin Rose won this on a Monday Justin Rose was that a Monday am I remembering that accurately I know it went to Monday when uh when Paul Casey and Phil Mickelson were in that playoff I remember that I don’t remember why do I not remember last year I know Justin Rose

Won I can’t remember if it was a Monday or a Sunday okay there’s a headline from pga.com that says Majestic Monday for Justin Rose at Pebble Beach so I’m there you go you’re were right got it okay uh yes they finished this on Monday last year fingers crossed we don’t have to do

That again this time around yes that would be nice now the fields a lot smaller uh but they are so it’s still a proam format and they’re on two golf courses right so it’s like a full field event in actual you know if you’re making tea times it’s like a full field

Event across two courses um but it’s you know only 80 tour players Pebble Beach and spy glass Hill the amateurs will only play the first two rounds we’ll get rid of them after 36 and then the rest of uh the rounds will be played at at

Pebble Beach so very similar to what we did last week where the South course were uh hosted three rounds this week uh Pebble Beach will play three rounds so we’ll we’ll probably Focus there Greg and Troy if you want to share my screen I’ve got the scorecard up here um start

Contrast between the scorecards of Tory Pines the South course and Pebble Beach for this week uh significantly shorter as you can see uh interesting that they’re both PGA Tour venues uh I’m sorry US Open venues obviously is interesting yeah sorry excuse me both US Open venues in the past and good ones

But this one under 7,000 yards still par 72 four par fives in the US Open it’s typically goes down to a 71 so the second hole you could see there if you’re watching on YouTube hole number two 516 yard par five they’ll move that

To a par four in a US Open um but again like we always talk about par is just a relative number excuse me you that’s why we have a sneeze button um but look this is you you look at some of these yardages and there’s a

Lot of holes that are in the under 430 and I mean there’s a lot that are under 400 yards as well too so it’s traditionally a wedge Fest I do expected to play but that still does not make it long by any means you don’t need distance around here and I would argue

At some points uh you can’t really use it if you have it the average drive distance here is the shortest on the PGA towards like 276 yards you end up getting Greg a lot of guys who play from similar positions whether that is an iron to a specific spot and then

Everybody kind of plays in from those wedge locations and then when they do that they’re attacking these tiny tiny little greens that are um I mean comically small if you can if you lay your eyes on them it’s like I don’t even know how that works that that’s going to

Be one of the defenses along with weather those small greens that are difficult to hit small and slopey uh and and they’re also that POA um so they’re difficult to putt as well and that’s why a golf course that’s under 7,000 yards can host a Us open because the the

Greens are difficult now uh if you remember in the 2019 US Open they were a lot smoother they are traditionally smoother than Tory Pines but I think the statistics still show that it is a difficult Golf Course to putt inside of five feet it’s difficult putting inside

Of 15 feet it’s difficult to have a good putting week so that that is a similarity to this in Tory Pines that’s exactly right so Tory Pine is basically how you can slice this a lot of different ways but from five to 15 feet um Tory Pines is either the most

Difficult or second most difficult place to put on the PGA tour Pebble Beach is like the third or fourth most difficult so it is it is very very similar you’re gonna see short putts missed it it kind of makes the scrambling numbers go down Greg because scrambling that’s a that’s

A twoos shot stat right you got to get up you got to get down the down part uh all more difficult here than a lot of other places yes uh and the other thing about the up part is because the greens are so small and because you’re coming

In with short clubs you tend to be a lot closer to the hole so you end up with a lot of short-sided shots from the rough or from bunkers with slopes to deal with so the up can be difficult too uh um but these players are so good around the

Greens and for them to be short side it is not necessarily a big deal but whether you’re talking about around the green or approaching the green this is a very wedge Centric golf course yeah okay we are going to jump into this 79 player field on DraftKings uh I’ll

Describe what the heck that is all about we’ll go tier by tier here but first we’re going to take a quick break and hear a word from our partners the double header in the dark it’s a two test with strategy skill and speed twist and turns ready some wheel to whe Actionn and we’re back uh Greg we are doing this Live on YouTube it is about 540 PM Eastern Time on on Monday afternoon as of this moment Terell Pon is still in the AT&T Pebble Beach proam Field um officially and while it has been heavily reported that he will be

Playing in Live mayakoba this week There’s been nothing official from Terrell there’s been nothing official from the PGA Tour there’s been nothing official from live however draftking said enough is enough we’re not putting him in the field so so there are only 79 golfers in this field I I guess they

Must feel it’ll be easier to add him then remove him uh if if they need to and the man waiting in the wings uh for that potential WD is Hayden Buckley who would take the 80th spot if Hatton does announce Something official here that is fascinating I wonder what that timeline

Would be I’m I’m sure that there will be an announcement beforehand if it is true um but it doesn’t put Hayden Buckley in a great spot because traditionally this was an an exception with John ROM but the players weren’t suspended until they hit a shot so you’re there in

Myoba um he’s got to hit a shot before he’s suspended well with the time difference that we might be able to pull that off yeah that’s a good point that’s a good point but with their shotgun starts the later tea times right you might be in trouble aen buy give me a

Give me a late time let’s see if I can get hat to hit a shot in myoba get me get me one of these somebody on Instagram to post a video of him at the yes I can have proof and I can Tee It Up

Yes he’s not gonna make his tea time I’m in um so yeah Hayden Buckley and place at TL Hatton is interesting which hey TL Hatton would probably if there were no rumors um would probably be a playable option here but DraftKings made the decision for us so he’s out yeah they

Did so uh here we go this is the cheat sheet on my website rickun good.com and there are four golfers over $10,000 and I mean listen to this field headed to Pebble Beach Rory mroy 11,500 Scotty Sheffer 114 he’s played this as the US Open hasn’t played it otherwise Victor

Havin 10,200 and Xander Schley $10,000 even at the top of the board this is this is a field for Pebble it’s a great field for Pebble and I think there’s some difficult ones to parse through so let’s just start with Rory mroy sure now at this golf course he

Doesn’t have a lot of experience um but he has played sorry um he played a US Open here came in tied ninth he played a US Open in 2010 missed the cut and he missed the cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach pram in 2018 right um the good news is the T9 at

The US Open in 2019 that’s four rounds at Pebble Beach so you don’t really have a great idea of whether or not the other golf courses were just more difficult in 2010 he’s so young he’s such a different player now yeah I would not be using anything one single result from 2010 for

Any golfer of the world but this is why I’m so interested in Rory uh if you look on your stats page on the holy grail and go to approaches from 150 I’m sorry from 50 to 125 Rory is second in this field which is which is much improved over the last

Couple of years by the way remember that used to be an issue for him that that wedge uh exactly yeah no I’m not just going to go down I’m not just going to go in this list and pick the guys that are near the top here that’s not the I’m

Not judging this entire thing based on approach play from 50 to 125 but Rory’s Improvement in this area is significant on this golf course I I also I wouldn’t be surprised if the more accurate number like 125 to 150 might come more into play for a lot of players because of the

Weather but Rory with his length I still I think he’s still ends up in in this window and his 50 to 125 play even on the PG tour last year a full season he was in the neighborhood of 16th on tour which is a huge Improvement you look at

His play in Dubai A little sloppy um but again a left Miss and a left Miss is the thing that he’s been fighting and off the now two things come into His Advantage here one you can’t miss right at Pebble Beach you can miss left all you want until on the first 17

Holes to miss left yeah that’s true and the other aspect is you don’t have to hit a lot of drivers right I feel very strongly this event can play right into Rory melroy’s hands you know it is interesting though I I completely agree with your analysis

Here if I’m a Rory backer don’t I want him hitting drivers isn’t that his weapon isn’t that what separate if he’s just going to hit H five iron 275 yards and play it from the same spot Tom hogi is doesn’t he lose his Edge traditionally yes and there is an edge

He loses no question about it but he’s strong enough in the other areas to make up for it and it’s not every hole you can’t hit driver I mean he can hit driver on one two is probably a three-wood um but some of those holes on

The back nine I think he he might be able to hit driver and fly all the bunkers like on 15 I believe is the one I’m thinking of where a lot of guys lay up to where it’s wide in between some cross bunkers and Rory might have the

Opportunity to fly it right over all of them now he’s playing a different golf course so yes some of his Edge gets taken away but I I think he has the ability now to make up for it Rory is the most expensive but just a 100 bucks

Behind is Scotty sheffler here Greg and Scotty you know the um the story line is is pretty much the same it’s it’s the te to Green domination and it is somebody who looks pretty lost on the putting surfaces now when you go to a place that is even more difficult to

Putt on this is the million-dollar question is that better for the bad Putters because everyone will be missing more frequently or is it better for the good Putters since it is harder they can exercise their advantage Rick that’s why you sit in the chair you sit

In I I don’t know if there’s a correct way to answer that um but I in the case of Scotty sheffler I’m not sure it really matters okay I mean look at these results they’re they’re irrelevant and part of me says okay well majors are going to be good for Scotty because

There’s not going to be a lot of birdies made he’s going to hit a lot of greens and if he misses some short birdie putts it’s he’s not really losing ground when he goes to the American Express everybody’s has everybody has those close birdie putts that he does

And now when he misses putts it’s it’s problematic but he still finishes t17 with one Dreadful round you know it so I just think he’s good enough to play anywhere anytime as he is as reliable as there is on the PGA tour and it might be worth saving a hundred bucks and playing

Scotty over Rory I definitely like that um this will not you know not get to 30 under par there will be bogies made there will be a chance for him to realize his Advantage a lot of different ways I mean he’s a phenomenal short game player um yeah I I I think

That I think that he’s pretty interesting at 114 and then you know Xander and Victor Victor you know you’re GNA hear the conversation about how you know he won his USM here and he’s played he’s played uh well every time he’s teed it up at Pebble Beach it seems to be

Getting better and then Xander no matter what you know I I I think I like the well-rounded guys this week we’ll get to Tommy Fleetwood in a second but like the Xander schle Max H Tommy Fleetwood well-rounded golfers who have a lot of different paths to the top they excite

Me this week I generally don’t get Xander right but it’s a no cut event he’s probably gonna be near near to uh near the top of the board I would lean towards Xander okay I actually I know I went off on this thing about SC uh Rory

Just now but I wrote down two names on my list and I wrote Scotty and Xander I just got you I got you in the moment talking about Rory I just I I really do feel strongly about it but I would probably go Scotty over Rory and I

Would go Xander over havland uh just Xander’s just played more and I think he’s kind of in that midseason form another guy that really struggled on the greens but hit it so well hit it so well and he’s a really good putter I would not be be surprised to see a Resurgence

From him on the greens his 2024 is T10 T3 T9 and with a lot of bright green and the only area that he struggled the putter is an area that he is historically very very very good at coming into this season I mean it was it was incredible yeah it was like there

Were like four events last year a lost Strokes putting you know it’s he does not get enough credit for that no I mean I remember when Xander was a top 10 putter on the PGA tour and went to armlock and he was like what are you

What are you doing that was weird he well it’s an advantage yeah for guys who can’t putt like you right so he ends up going back and is form he is as reliable as it gets especially in that short range so I think in this case the question you

Asked about Scotty Sheffer kind of benefits Xander Schley either way if he’s struggling with the putter well then that’s great uh and if it requires really good putting well he’s capable of that I I that’s what I agree with I agree that you know if it gets if it

Gets windy and nasty and everybody’s missing greens fine if it’s just wedges in fine if it’s a putting contest fine like I I think I have a lot of ways for Xander to get me to the top yes he’s ready he is absolutely ready for a win

It’s been a little frustrating if you’ve been backing him cuz like you said I I don’t know if I can get Xander right well if you play Xander and you get a T10 out of him at the Sentry that feels like a letdown did he get him wrong I don’t

Yeah say right like like the T3 the American Express you’re like okay I guess I got what I wanted out of him yeah yeah but God T9 at Farmers you’re like ah it’s like it’s like an average finish yeah it is but I would take that right

Now I think I would too and it’ll probably be better uh it probably will be the 9k range very very interesting Patrick Klay at 97 Justin Thomas 96 Jordan spe 94 Maxa 92 Colin morawa at 9100 and ludvig oberg at 900 even all right we do have uh this range

We’ve got some history we’ve got some great history how much weight are we putting on it where are we going Patrick Klay is just way underpriced in my opinion this is perfect and the reason is because of the American Express and the farmers he did not play well he does

Not have a good record at Farmers the South course is not very kind to him so I get I can write that off and the American Express is one round albeit Sunday so we have some you know a couple rounds in in the last two tournaments that have really

Hurt Patrick Klay but when he comes here to Pebble Beach something changes and it changes in a big way for him I mean T3 and T4 in his last two years his worst finish is back in 2017 a t48 he’s got three top 10s another t11

He he plays really well here and there’s something about Patrick KL that always perplexes me like his Strokes gained approach is kind of underwhelming but he hits a ton of Greens in regulation and if you can hit a ton of greens and regulation here those putts for birdie are a lot

Shorter uh and I think that can give that gives Patrick Klay a little Edge I I guess what I’m really trying to say here is I think his Strokes gain approach is underwhelming because of his strategy which has to change with when the greens get smaller interesting yeah

You hit it to the middle of these greens and you can’t even have that long of a putt right I mean it’s hard to differentiate where to aim differently for the middle of the green and the tucked pin right yeah just hit it to the middle don’t worry about it right uh he

Has lost Strokes from T green here once that was seven years ago uh he is generally a very very good putter on these surfaces now not all of these rounds are measured but the ones at Pebble Beach are and now we’re getting more rounds there uh than anywhere else

This this year so that is certainly helpful um you like course history do you like Jordan spe I I imagine he’s gonna be quite popular Greg yes I like Jordan but he’s not my favorite in the in the range okay I actually created a

Line up I went like C NAD style today I created one lineup when I saw this pricing I went with Klay I went with spe and I went with homma all in one lineup and you can you can do that very easily you skip Rory skip Scotty skip Xander

Skip Vic skip them all you can get those three guys in one lineup pretty strong play uh could be but Max Homa I think is the is the guy I I agree with you I think Max Homa wins this week um it’s it’s it’s a very compelling resume that dates back

To July where he’s been playing Great Golf he was in the winter Circle in November on the European tour the metrics are well-rounded and great and then what he’s done here I almost typed in Tori Pebble Beast three straight top 15s um and and he’s in his home state

And we add a little extra layer um with the rain Max hom I think is a mutter he won uh TPC pomac he did you know W one of the rare wins outside out of state yeah um he’s now on out of the country too

But I I think this just sets up so perfectly for and I I love this we’ve been talking about it for months his game is well-rounded now to the point where he can lean on any aspect of it and I don’t think we’ve seen his best stuff te to

Green in a in quite some time he hasn’t had to to record great finishes but one of these days he’s going to start hitting the ball well again like re really well for an entire week and it’s going to be scary and I think it happens

This week yeah I’m with you I think that um I I kind of foreshadow this before that the the mold of Xander H Fleetwood like that type of guy I’m very excited about H is uh certainly someone that I’ve got circled St underlines whatever whatever you want to call it I I really

Love the way he’s trending yeah um I’m just gonna give it away Rick he’s going to be my one andone play WoW here we go I think uh I don’t know you and I might be together on that one all right well you now the ball’s in your court you can

Join me or let me Howl at the Moon by myself it’s 3.6 million for first we didn’t we didn’t mention that it is 3.6 million $20 million purse this would be a this would be a good one to get to get correct yes my demise last year was a struggle in these

Events I don’t think um I I think I’m gonna get off to a better start I’m just looking at like the I was looking for the tie table uh first 3.6 second 2.18 third 1.3 so three three spots and actually fourth is 980,000 so basically top four getting a million bucks yeah

Yeah that’s awesome yeah that is awesome okay um anybody else in the 9k range or should we chug along uh I wanted to your thoughts on JT oh I mean I’m I’m in like I’m I’m a big I’m a big buyer the problem is you just

Can’t play all these guys right and I do worry a little bit about um just like the the frustrating POA situation where he he’s a he’s kind of a momentum guy and when he hits a couple putts that he thinks were good putts and they lip out

Or they do something weird I just I’ve I have worried in the past that that uh proliferates the rest of his game I I’ve worried about that so I I think that we are going to get a lot of good JT spots moving forward because I’m a big

Believer in him this year and with the the depth of the 9k range it is probably a situation where I will be underweight on Justin Thomas this week the TA green stuff should be perfect for JT here right driver not overly important can Club down a lot lot of wedges in the

Greens for the best wedge player in the game arguably but I think you hit the nail on the head the frustrating po of greens I think that’s what gets him here Y and you can’t play them all as much as I would love to you can’t cannot play

All of these guys let’s continue this conversation with the eights the sevens and the sixes uh pretty good names decent names in the 6K range I mean it’s only an 80 player field somebody’s got to be down there we will have that conversation but first we’ll take a

Quick break and hear a word from our partners out there there are two colossal beings both forces of nature in their own regard but in here as soon as the shoot burs open The Duality of Man and Beast begins to fade this is the PBR on CBS Sports

Network we’re back the $8,000 range Sam Burns Tony feno cam young Tommy Fleetwood Sun JM Jason day Hideki Matsuyama and then we round it out with matz Nikolai hoard Benny on and Tom Kim all right Greg uh where do we go here all right um you mentioned him

Already so I think we should just start with the Tommy Fleetwood conversation sure uh because I think it’s really worthy couple factors in play for him here I I trust him because he’s from England uh in these kind of conditions I think there’s a benefit to

That kind of style his record here is a little underwhelming right t65 in the US Open his only other start here is a T45 but his play has been so strong lately yes I feel so strong about his putting he’s always had a wonderful short game and and I think he’s gotten his

Driver back he’s gotten like kind of the the whole the whole game is back the the thing that I like about it is there is a percentage of people who are just like oh okay well you know I’m looking at his PGA Tour stuff and it’s it’s fine right

It’s a T25 the BMW Championship it’s a T6 in a 30 player field the Tour Championship with a staggered start it’s a t-47 at the centry these are not overwhelming results but uh he plays a lot globally and since the Tour Championship he has a sixth a 12th a

Runner up a win a 14th like I mean he’s been playing red Hot golf just not in North America so you know you forget about it a little bit and if you’re not following um if you’re not following golf all that closely it may not be on

Your radar but you’re right he’s been playing great so there’s no reason for me to sit Tommy Fleetwood in a week like this but if I was going to Pivot this is kind of the opposite end of the spectrum it might be a good spot for cam

Young you know I stared really long at that name and I don’t know I didn’t really come up with anything so I’m glad I’m glad you brought him up um we we we’ve talked about the struggles recently but then he goes over and plays in Dubai and event he probably should

Have won he finished he ends up finishing third but let’s let’s talk about it why why could this be a good pivot to cam young well I I think uh can you pull up his his stats and look at these wedge numbers yeah like his his season stats yeah yeah

So we’ll do bigger sample size from from last year okay um so 125 to 150 he’s eighth yeah 150 to 175 a little bit longer he’s 13th and 175 to 200 he’s fifth those are his best ranges unranked from 50 to 125 interesting okay all right so I remember being a little

Better with the surprisingly good with the shorter wedges I think it’s 125 150 that stood out to me okay but more important than that is uh the the weather growing up in the Northeast playing in some ugly conditions he’s familiar with it he was in the mix with Max hom at TPC

Pomac he’s done well you know when during his rookie year we lauded how he could play well in so many different styles of golf course so many different um WEA conditions all of this his game seemed to work everywhere and I liked what I saw at the Dubai Desert Classic leaderboard gravity

Got him on Sunday yes but I think this game is coming around and this could be the kind of event where he shines it’s you’re going out a little bit on a limb you don’t have the Tommy Fleetwood stuff to back it up or the Xander Schley

Performances to back it up but I’m willing to take a risk on cam young young this week this is the event that I was thinking of I thought he might have done it at Pebble but the um the the rookie year thing when it really kind of

Blew me away about him being able to play a lot of different places as he was the first round leader at harbort toown and then he finished t3d and that is if you if you look statistically at like average Drive length and like you know short courses there’s obviously a lot of

Comps between Harbortown and Pebble Beach because a lot of guys play from the same spots and all that stuff so small greens small greens yeah exactly right so that was the the round or the tournament that I was that I was thinking of where I was like oh my God

It might just be a bomb and gouch type of type of player right he’s he’s not um so again little more risky than say Tommy Fleetwood U but I think it it could be worthwhile this week the rest of this range is Prett fascinating you know we got a lot of

Good and a lot of bad from Hadi last week um Matt Fitzpatrick I’m interested to see kind of just in general what he does in in in 2024 Nikolai hoard both the Hoards making a name fors but Nikolai finishes runner up last week I mean there’s there’s a lot of different

Places we could go here Greg um there is all of those players you mentioned are really interesting I think the three that catch my attention you got Ben on okay he’s down to 8,000 Jason day with his record here at 84 00 and Matt Fitzpatrick at 8200 but let let’s start

With uh Ben on okay because this has been just awesome for him look at what he’s done off the te he’s been a great driver of the ball for so basically his whole career um but especially lately this has been ever since March of last year just absolutely phenomenal off the

Tea uh and what we’ve seen with the putting is some great success since he went to the long putter I love riding that kind of storyline uh I love riding that momentum shift that has it cost him a tournament at the Sony and that’s probably in a lot of people’s

Mind I’m willing to let go of it and play him again this week in his last eight events he has gained significantly with the putter in six of them he’s been like a dead dead zero in one of them and he lost lost very bad in the other but

That is that’s the opposite he used to lose very badly in six out of seven right and that change you can see it in the results yeah right I mean you got a T3 at the Scottish open a T2 at the Windam Championship a fourth at the

Sentury a T2 at the Sony that should have been a won plain and S plain and simple should have been a win right so look I still think there’s a chip on his shoulder he’s playing well enough to win and and I think he can knock on the door again

At Pebble Beach this week uh Jason day is the other one here right yeah phenomenal phenomenal history he’s been he’s been great at Pebble Beach the results coming in are a little less inspiring he kind of did him and Ricky Fowler have been on a very similar

Trajectory for the last couple of years they both were great they both kind of slumped at the same time they both rebounded and then they both won and immediately struggled like it is it’s it’s interesting how these two have have kind of track one another but that’s

What we’re looking at with Jason day here I do think Jason day has been a little better than Ricky um but the thing that led to the win for him was a huge improvement with his iron game his iron his iron play was terrible then it got really good again and then

You know towards the end of last year after that win it com I mean he he lost 10 Strokes approaching the green at the BMW and he’s been like a zero guy ever since so I’m wondering if that comes back but if this does get really nasty

And becomes a short game muddy grinder kind of competition Jason day could be a great guy to have on your roster um especially if these results keep other people away right that’s the thing is you know there’s if if Jason day was playing better and he was coming here he’d be

9400 instead of 8400 kind of the give and take at the range that we’re in right now and there’s you know even more give and take as we go down one more click to the $7,000 range this starts with JT Poston and sah thala Chris Kirk Denny McCarthy

Justin Rose uh in the middle and then we round out the 7K range with sep straka Brenden Todd Eric Van royan so where do we want to spend here um very interested in JT poen still um very interested in Danny McCarthy I think it’s a good week to go back to an

Eric Cole agreed uh there’s a couple Canadians in this range I like and Corey Connor and Nick Taylor and I think um I think Kevin U is really rising up the ranks quickly so I I think Rick there’s a ton of options here in this range yeah so we’ll just

Run through a couple of them real quick JT Poston and we’ve we’ve documented this a lot so we don’t need to spend much time here has just been piling up results his 2024 is a T5 the century a sixth the Sony AN 11th the American Express the only place he ever loses is

Off the Te You could argue hey maybe that gets a little bit overshadowed this week and he gets to lean on his strengths I do want to pull up Kevin U because he’s got two good results in a row Greg but I’m going to argue the putting Improvement is actually we’ve gone four

Tournaments for that you know he was a small loser at the RSM even smaller at the Sony a small winner at the American Express a big winner at the farmers but all four of those are well above his Baseline and now those results are starting to Tri trickle in yes and don’t

Forget about Kevin Yu’s pedigree um and also don’t forget if you’ve been doing models on rickun good.com and we get into these wedge fests Kevin Yu’s name especially when he was constantly priced in the 6K range came up all the time and that putter was an anchor that really just dragged him

Back and you had to say all right I know the model says Kevin you but I can’t do it now you can and I believe you should um the other few were okay I want to talk about Cory Conor because that is one guy I did not have I I liked Nick

Taylor I did not necessarily get deep enough into Cory Connor so I want to see Greg kind of what’s going on here and I see the great ball striking the team no putt uh captaincy now that maybe Kevin Yu is on his way out he might have

Handed you know pass the torch to Cory Connor here that that’s what I’m seeing from this profile Yeah it’s gotten pretty bad and it hasn’t been great here in the past either so this is the Corey Connor’s Theory uh with weather I want ball Strikers I like Cory Connor’s ball

Striking that hopefully keeps the scores a little closer to even par and allows Corey Connors to pile up greens a regulation pile up Miss putts but you know maybe even gain some ground here and there so this is simply a weather play um I think Cory

Connor is also a mutter and we get into some gritty nasty conditions I’d rather I I’d like in certain cases to lean a little more on ball striking when that’s available and it is here with him I am fascinated to see what happens with Eric Cole uh Eric Cole was for basically 20

Straight weeks a fantasy darling he produced week over week it didn’t matter where he was when it was how it was he found a way to produce and now one bad week two really bad rounds at a golf course that might not be great for him

To now go to a golf course that in theory should be a lot better and I’m already getting this feeling I’m already getting this feeling that the public is over ericole they’ve just moved on there is a shiny new object everywhere they look this is a stacked field ericole is like last

Year’s news and I am just so tempted to be clicking his name as much as possible yeah I put him on the list right away JT Poston just because he was priced higher and then Eric Cole you go right back last week is so explainable it’s a

Terrible venue for him you have to drive it great at Tory Pines everybody knows it a CO doesn’t do that it was set up to be a disaster from the start now we’re right back into action you forget about that you move on and all of a sudden you

Go come to a golf course that plays right into your strengths so I am hoping praying to my lucky stars that the general public is with you Rick or not with you but that you’re right on the general Public’s Persona there’s Eric Co fatigue and now we have the reason to

Not play him yeah I I’ll be I’ll play him Eric Cole fatigue in a Range where Jagger played great last week Kevin Yu is there Nick Taylor’s a past Champion Stephen uh uh who else Justin Rose is there Matthew Pavo like there’s just a lot of names let’s spread them around

You don’t have to click Eric Cole’s name I will I’ll take care of right you don’t have to you got sep straa here you never know yeah could be a straa week could be a St it actually could be a straa a week yeah I know I do like stru a lot $6,000

Range we’ve got freshly minted professional Nick Dunlap at $6,900 the middle Lucas Lucas Glover and then the bottom of this range at exactly $6,000 even Lee Hodges Peter Mady Sam Ryder Sheamus power so if you want to kind of jam a couple of those uh expensive boys into the lineup you might

Have to create down here Greg yep and I think you’re okay to creep down I mean look some of these guys that are Min pric are hard to play but Sheamus power nearly I mean he had a really good chance to win here before he was five I

Think he was five shots clear at 36 holes he was and then I think he had to go play Pebble and I and I I remember this because I think I had an outright on him and it had just all it just all came crashing yeah in like one or two holes or

Something it it just fell apart I’m not sure he finished inside T9 he finished T9 okay I didn’t think he finished inside the top 10 but okay nice so look I’m not say he hasn’t been playing very well I don’t necessarily like it there’s not I can’t make a case for it other

Than he’s been priced and he’s almost won here but other than that there there are some guys that I think are really really playable um one of them I think is McKenzie Hughes uh at 6,400 I think you get a great value here again he is

Similar to the Eric Cole model this is not going to be a guy who impresses you off the te even though he has gotten a little longer and a little better but his iron play has been really good the last four events he’s finished um gaining zero Strokes or more hasn’t lost

Strokes in four straight events he has a really good short game uh and and is a great putter this just feels like the kind of grit the gritty tough muddy nasty golf course that McKenzie Hughes can thrive on yeah that’s interesting and and I agree with the the skill set

There I’m gonna throw out and I think I think he’ll be very popular but I I find Maverick mcney to be rather interesting the the the all the connections to Pebble he’s played well here yeah BL blah um he is one of the best Putters in

The world he’s also one of the best po POA Putters in the world yes he is finally healthy he played the best he’s played since this since coming back from the injury last week at the farmers it looks like he’s knocking the rust off it looks like the game is coming back to

Him I just look at a guy who is$ 6200 nearly the minimum price and all of his long-term stuff even his medium-term stuff stinks because he had that run of just like I mean he was playing hurt the aw awful but are you tell like I would rather Maverick mcne over over coocher

And spawn and SMY and Hardy and Hubbert and woo and like all of these guys I just I just think he opens up a lot of possibilities with your salary cap it’s also a four round tournament yeah um no cut and if he is still shaking rust off

You know you’re not done after a bad round in round one you know he can struggle in a for a day and get you a ton of points on Sunday because he’s comfortable and starting to feel a little bit better and can go shoot 64 a pebble or something so I I understand

The play I really like it I had another POA specialist for you okay we went with him last week Patrick Rogers and it T9 last week can you roll that over again because I’m kind of I’m I’m interested in it hit it well he hit it well this is

Now swinging well this is now three good starts in a row to start 2024 I’ll give him four if if you go back to the Australian Open in December you get four good starts in a row with some good ball striking metrics he does love POA for whatever reason he’s kind of able

Even if he didn’t even putt all that well uh well he lost we don’t have the North Course round but we’ve got right you know three pretty decent rounds at the South I’ll tell you what he’s just got a terrible record at Pebble it’s a terrible record at Pebble but he’s got

Four straight miscuts on a T8 in 2018 I think you could do worse I think so too I’m willing to take a chance on a horrible h player they’re not horrible miscuts no no and let’s just pretend he can’t handle Monteray Peninsula yeah let pretend that he just can’t handle

It any other darts you would like to throw in the 6K range you know Tom hogi won this event Tom hogies W it I know you make a good such a good case with Maverick mcney it’s hard to go anywhere else uh with any logic

But I I do think um like Brandon Woo is interesting to me I think he’s certain in the corner Nick Hardy is really interesting to me in a strange way his ball striking has been so good finishes have been pretty good but again I don’t know if I like it enough

He at the farmers last week he gained five shot five and a half shots approaching the green I love that it’s been pretty good out of Nick Hardy you know who I want to look at is Taylor Mo I love Taylor more but he has not played

No I was interested I took my shot on him last week yeah it’s uh it’s not it’s not great I mean I guess the argument is his short game might be more valuable here but he’s really bad on approach uh he’s got like two straight top 20s here I I’m

Ready I’m ready for I want him back like I lik I like him I like the way he play the run that he had up until his win last year was cool it was it was awesome I need this version of him again not not this version no it’s not good it’s not

Good but this happens sometimes after a win you get a little time you try to improve some things and it can it can create some struggles it has for Taylor Moore I thought last week I mean I could see him in my crystal ball near you know in contention on

Sunday and it didn’t happen not even close it was uh it was Matthew Pavone it was these other guys who he was back in Florida before the tournament even ended ah I hate it all right Greg well listen uh back to normal Thursday starts and it’s gonna be our first my opinion our

First real look at what these events are going to look like moving forward and I’m excited about that and pebble is gonna get the field that it deserves yes uh I’m really looking forward to it as well and don’t forget spy glass is yeah it’s really good track and it’s harder

Than Pebble which is a rare last year was eighth uh the eighth most difficult course Pebble was 25th so it’s going to be a factor this week doesn’t change any of the analysis but don’t take your eyes off of spy glass either bundle up and root

For good drainage and that we will be done on Sunday night and not Monday morning yes it would be kind of crazy to do a a Sunday recap episode on Monday and just just stay on live for a DFS episode do just run it straight roll straight into Riviera that’s not going

To happen no it’s not okay uh big thanks to producer Troy does all the hard work behind the scenes uh Greg do charm is available on Twitter at the real gfd and you can find me at Rick rungood this has been the first cut we’ll catch you next Time