PGA DFS Picks Farmer Insurance Open 2024 | DraftKings & FanDuel Golf Lineups | PGA DFS Strategy

Ben Rasa and Eric Lindquist go over the best PGA DFS picks for the The Farmer Insurance Open 2024. The guys will go over how they’re handling this DFS golf tournament and building their DraftKings and FanDuel PGA lineups.

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All right back in business not Wednesday the rare extremely rare Tuesday PGA DFS show here at stochastic and there’s a reason for that a very simple reason is that the golf locks tomorrow so if we did the show tomorrow it wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense that’s the kind of

Logic you’re only going to get here but we’re ready to talk Farmers Insurance open we’re going to have a good time we’re going to throw go through some tools build some winning lineups and get you all the information you need on benr I am joined by the man who uh must be

Feeling pretty good from the NBA hit last night congratulations told you before the show I’ll tell you on the air very very good stuff I got to sweat the tail end of that uh you must be feeling good let’s carry that momentum into the PGA streets yeah I would love to uh this

Is obviously another awesome week another Golf Course well golf coures plural that I’m familiar with that I’ve played so that’s enjoyable but yeah it’s uh it’s always easier to start off you’re here to to have a big hit in January ended up um ended up having

Having a really nice sweat there I gotta say Kevin Durant that guy is an absolute Legend last week I go to the game watch them come back from 22 down and then yesterday he stops overtime from happening which would have surely had Kobe white lineups passing me at the

Very end there but ended up having a chop uh up top there for right around 30k and uh was a fantastic little night for sure good stuff there’s no doubt about it yeah now the trick just run it up in PGA Famous Last Words yeah no problems uh I

Mean I we start every show like two two parts okay the silence H takes though how good were the hot takes come on now plus 340 and will say you had the top professional in the event yeah yeah exactly yeah I should have just done a minor Aster of uh people that really

Exist that he would win the tournament but uh you know the people from the actual clouds now win just incredible I mean the whole thing was ridiculous on so many levels but uh on a if I if I take all emotion out of it the stones to get up and down

On 18 I was positive that that was going to a playoff yeah it was it was not something that you see from a 20-year-old and I think this is something that I’ve been very very adamant about since we started doing shows is that kids these day are

Different than kids of days of past there’s a couple of reasons for it one the equipment is way better the the margins that you have unless you play golf you don’t understand Jordan Klein even probably understands this for sure he’s got a nice sweet swinger over there but um the

Equipment makes it easier to not fail with a driver and when you have the driver be the straightest easiest to hit Club in your bag the biggest Club head it takes a lot of pressure off of you want t- shots that would otherwise be very very difficult coming down the end

Of the stretch the other thing is that all of these kids start when they’re eight nine 10 golf becomes something that they they travel for they’re kind of touring professionals as is the kid wins a us amiter gets a sponsors exemption we know Nick Dunlap was an

Absolute stud but there’s no point in bringing him up because relative to PGA players it’s just so hard to know what that known quantity is but you see it with theala you see it with all these kids coming up who are number one amers they all have it right from the Geto so

Obviously I’m with you I didn’t think that he was going to get it up and down in the moment and uh was obviously cheering for you cuz I think you said that we may never be able to do shows again here if you finish second the rest

Of the year yeah and here I am uh no it was a hell of a run and you know listen when you bet outrights all you can ask for as a chance and we’ve had that last couple weeks and we’re gonna have it this week because we’re GNA get into it

I don’t have anything else from the AMX it’s a birdie Fest it’s a joke it’s a three course rotation we you quickly last week identified that mentality of need to be in go mode all four rounds you’re not going to be able to grind it and I think

We saw that come to fruition yep and how dides Sam Burns take a myself so he he suck my hopes on 17 which was like all right I felt better about it that is a very small green you go play it in person at PJ West it is it is a lot

Smaller than what I believe I’ve never played TPC Saw Grass but number 17 I think is a much larger surface area than what you’ve got there and uh you’re hitting about the same Club maybe a little bit longer than you do most of the time over at number 17 at TPC so uh

It is a visually intimidating shot the fact that he makes one bad swing I think people kind of react overreact to that pressure does a lot of weird things but again Dunlap was able to hit a Hu human in the crowd uh go way right bail out

And get up and down he thought he had a two- shot lead I don’t know if you heard the interview afterwards but he had absolutely no idea that it was only one shot at that point so it was a crazy sweat I’m hoping though my guy you’re

Going to cash one of these sooner rather than later let’s make it sooner that’d be f let’s make it right now let’s do it let’s get into it I see chat I see all our regulars all all our people we appreciate you you guys know the drill

If you want to support us hit the like button right off the bat let’s build it up and let’s get into this so this isn’t a three course rotation this is a two course rotation but really I always treat this and I want to hear your thoughts you get the North Course and

You get a chance to take advantage but you’re playing Tory South you’re playing it three times it’s a big long golf course everyone on this show except me has been on the grounds it sounds like you both know what’s going on even Jordan CL he’s been there uh now I hear they’re

Getting pounded with rain so I want to talk about that and I just want to talk about your impressions because you have firsthand knowledge of what it takes to tackle these type of courses yeah so I mean I’ve played the north a bunch I’ve played the South twice and it is a track

That um it is there are some brutal par fours that you’re going to be playing uh on the south course specifically the north is a lot shorter there’s some getable par fives there and obviously 18 we know that that’s pretty getable both par fives on the back are pretty getable

There uh over at the South course as well but uh overall this is just so demanding off the te and that’s the first thing that really stands out this week compared to anything that we’ve had so far you had uh you could you had these Wide Open Fields at caloa you then

Go to the Sony that gets a little bit tighter but overall people don’t need to hit Fairways there because the rough isn’t very penal the rough is a killer yeah kakuya will kilia in a lot of these spots and obviously we’re talking POA on the greens we’re talking some of this uh

Crazy type uh bumps that you get it’s a lot harder to make some of the short putts they’re not a given the way that they are for a lot of PGA Tour guys putts from six to eight feet you know you you look at some of the make

Percentages it’s about five six% less over at the South course uh where we have all of that data at compared to other PJ tour stops so you try to make your hay over at the north for the first two days if you’re playing Showdown you

Just play a lot of guys who are playing the North Course cuz it’s exponentially easier if you want to mix in a stud the South course or two I have no issue with it but just get ready for a lot of ball Strikers get ready for a different week

Than we’ve had here in weeks past because you know it might have been just absolute birdie Fest here in days of your that is not what you are going to be running into with three rounds at the South course no doubt about it so I just

Want to pass it right back to you then what does that mean for skills like do you look to Bogey avoidance the ability you know Strokes gained around the green things that are more reserved for Majors things that are more reserved for or grinding are those factors and skills

That we get into this week that maybe weren’t on our the top of our list for the past couple weeks absolutely I I think what happens is that you’re driving like there’s there’s guys like minwu Lee who have utility last week because they’re good at birdie Fest but

Then he has extra utility this week too because the off the tea game is strong and the around the around the green game is strong I think the one difference for me this week compared to other weeks and you know obviously there’s a lot of amazing Iron players who have won this

Event here but I think Strokes G approach just doesn’t carry as much weight as what it has in weeks past correct me if I’m wrong or if that’s not something you’re looking at but I definitely want strong off the te I guess ball striking all around types but

If they can pair some Around The Greening game with it the putting this is just these are surfaces that kind of level the playing field because even good Putters are going to get strange bounces on these greens you’re going to have things that are just imperfect and sometimes that drives professional

Golfers mad but personally I love it because because it becomes uh it just becomes well golf isn’t supposed to be fair nobody said golf is supposed to be fair and I think for me it’s fun to watch uh tour players have par still matter and that’s something that exists

At the South course that doesn’t really exist in anything else until you know there’s times depending on how they set up TPC Scottdale depending on how the the crowds are feeling on 161 17 where you could make some numbers and things are getting problematic but like for the

Most part this is our first event that feels like a real golf course that’s going to be Challen Ing and getting up and down you’re going to see a lot more of that rather than just like hey you’ve got continuous 10 Footers for birdie every freaking hole yeah I totally agree

I mean I I do think and the thing that’s always tricky about Strokes gained approach it always is important it may not be the premier thing but you always want your guys to to stripe it if they can and give themselves but you can get around this course differently I do

Think off the te is very important not just spray and prey far from it you better be able to do something you can keep it straight and you’ll be fine you can obviously get there with a distance and you’ll be okay but you can’t have neither in my opinion uh I don’t really

Have anything else to say though I do think that with the soft conditions we could see some people take advantage I don’t care where my guy starts do you have any that’s the last thing I wanted to ask you do you prefer north south

South south or do you care um I I don’t care very much if I were playing it it myself I would care about wanting to play North First and just try to get a low number out there and then it’s always nice I said this about you know

The South course guys like it’s nice to see the same Golf Course continuously like you don’t want to have to play the rotation where like last week you’re playing the South course you know first and then you’re playing it the last day that that’s a little bit jarring to me

Like I would always prefer to play South course back-to-back days um you know in that capacity on the Friday Saturday Sunday so yeah three days in a row that I would prefer to play that there um but yeah the stadium course last week you know back-to-back days there that’s

That’s great and obviously the the north course it’s such a it’s such a Gable side compared to other now they’ve made it more difficult over the years they’ve done some revamping to it uh it’s not as easy as it once was I’ve played that you know seven eight years ago and then

Played it about two years ago uh during Co and there are some very pronounced differences just they’ve lengthened it a little bit they’ve definitely made it a little bit more challenging with some of the green complexes but overall far more getable far shorter about 500 chain shorter uh than what you’re looking at

For the South course the South course is just a a beast nearly 7,800 yards at sea level uh buckle up friends it’s going to be fun let’s get into it let’s talk about the top tier we’re going to pull up the Sims as well throughout the show

And start highlighting some of the tools because we’ve already seen it’s only been a couple weeks seen some good scores and obviously uh we believe in these tools I know you do saw saw the Tweet last night in the NBA it’s the same concept we’ve got Xander and we’ve

Got Klay morawa Max H sunj uh that’s the top five four of them are in the take 10K range a couple of them are California guys they either went to colge you know San Diego State uh some of those type of things when you’re looking at the top you see some of these

Guys uh can’t lay grades out pretty well where where were you drawn in terms of maybe your first click yeah I I think it’s hard to get away from from a little bit of Xander this week I think I can actually get away from a little bit of

Cantle more which seems weird because I don’t think that that’s the sentiment across the industry was able to last night couldn’t sleep I was just so wired so I just kind of listened and watched absolutely everything across the and um feels like there’s a lot of kley love

And I get it I mean obviously you know he’s he’s just a cali southern cal kid too and UCLA kid that has familiarity here um but Xander schafle going back to San Diego and he’s just an absolute stud when it comes to Southern California

Golf as well I don’t know what it is but like the consistency that he’s had in a lot of these events I mean third last week nice to see the form just ramped up right away there I think the off the te game where he’s been positive in three

That we have strokes gain data for uh continuously going back to you know the summer basically I mean you just know that he’s coming in in form you know that this is an area he has tons of familiarity with more so even than can’t lay so I think between the two of them

Up top I’m getting there but I will say I’m underwe to them because I don’t know how you don’t look at Colin warawa on a week like this and not get a little bit excited because I think the off the te game I’m not going to call it underrated

Everybody talks about how good of an iron player he is he absolutely is six then Strokes gained dat over his last 50 rounds last 24 rounds any sample size you’re using basically he’s eighth off the te and he has awesome course history here so I’m finding myself starting a

Lot of builds with morawa and then Max hom just like a de facto Southern cow guy but uh who do you like the most up here at 10K yeah I mean certainly uh Mora was the guy that I actually put on the BET end card I know it’s not a great

Number okay yeah yeah I got him at 12 and I was happy with that I was willing to take the plunge we know what he can do obviously a knows his way around this course uh he was third last year ball striking extraordinaire POA he doesn’t he’s

Another one like does he have a preferred surface yeah it’s probably POA he doesn’t mean he’s an elite putter there but it’s better than Bermuda um and so I I do like that Klay you know just looking at I I made an initial run I’m getting a decent amount of him in

The Sims uh I’m fine with that I don’t think I’m jamming him by any stretch the guy that may get squeezed for me and it’s scary is Xander uh and again you can’t play everyone I may have in the pool for sure but to me I have morawa

And can’t lay ahead of Xander this week yep and we got pretty flat leverage here going towards um going towards Canley the one thing I want to point out and this is something that I talked with our CEO Tom one of the best DFS players that exists on the earth uh been scorching

Hot in MMA and everything else here recently but um one thing you’re going to notice in PGA is your average simulated Roi is going to be a little bit lower on those type players than you’re going to find in the NBA streets in the MLB streets because because it’s

Just harder to find those edges so you have to do it by combining skill sets like you talk about combining tea time waves combining other things they can really be like oh this player is getting a little bit underrated like kentley is that guy I think who’s maybe a little

Bit underrated right now but gotta say he is getting steamed everywhere that I’m looking at I mean he has been discussed more so than I would say Xander so I guess for me it’s just a little bit freaky knowing that I could get my preferred guy at Xander and a guy

Who we have a higher projected for what that’s worth here um it’s going to be it’s going to be kind of a a coin flip situation between the two but left of my own device is I think I prefer sander like if you just were able to go

Straight up head-to-head if it’s an even money head-to-head who do you pick between shaffle and Canley yeah that’s where it gets super tricky I think I would give the edge to Xander um but you know that’s where that’s what I love about these tools is that you you mentioned it like in the

NBA you have a starting point guard that Sprints an ankle and some guy comes in and he’s the men you know the value the ROI it’s gigantic but engfa doesn’t really work like that uh you know there’s not really mispricing to that extent so you’re you’re talking about

Very small margins you’re talking about ownership factoring in skill sets waves little things that in that particular lineup can make the difference so that’s what I love about this uh and there’s just so many ways to construct we’ve talked about this big four sunjay aberer

Jason day as we work down to the top it’s the bottom of the top tier you know Tony feno woo these are the 9k options and some of them grayed out pretty well aberg’s not getting a lot of love and I’m good with that so I don’t think I

Really want to Target him here who was your next kind of tier that stuck out to you I guess my camera G zoomed in on me there I don’t know what happened it just wanted me to be all beautiful and stuff there Jordan Klein uh we are back but

Anyway I am oh why does it why is it doing that I don’t even know it’s got a mind of its own it’s like trying to capture me in my my prettiest light paint me like one of your French girls Jack um references early in the show all

Right we’re going to get this thing off and we’re just going to go old school with it but um as I look at the board here for for the next grouping is this the buyback for ludvig are we going to play him for the first time all year

This week he has no course history here he has pretty much the entire skill set that you want for it just hits that nice easy cut off the te kind of consistent feels like he’s going to be a ball Striker and like 9700 is way overpriced again but like something tells me we’re

Going to be able to get him into an ownership that maybe makes him appealing up here I wanted to ask you about him first out of this range because again didn’t play him at any of these birdie fests over in Hawaii was very happy to

Be off of him there I think this is a buy I I don’t know why he has the smallest top six percentage in the top golfers tool by a mile but he’s also going to have the lowest ownership in this range by a mile other than maybe Jason day who has Immaculate course

History but like are we playing ludc so that’s where I think again it’s super important to put context to it because I don’t like him in this range I don’t think he grades out in this range but as the Sims and we get the information the ownership maybe there is some utility to

That I’m still gonna say outside looking in for me more of an opportunity cost I like fow uh I think minw Le is an interesting buy I was not on him at all last week and I didn’t get burned by it it was fine um but I still believe if

He’s someone that has a lot of opportunity there I guess for me is there a guy in The 9k Rage that you’re not super keen on let me ask I yeah that’s probably the other thing I mean we’re getting an ownership discount on a lot of these guys I will say is this

This will probably be the first week I don’t play Eric Cole um okay he’s 9k he’s pulling 20% ownership his off the te game is by far the weakest part of it and he’s not a short hitter off the te by any means I mean he’s averaging what

Right around 297 here which doesn’t tell you a whole hell of a lot it’s going to be wet it’s going to be soggy it’s going to be a deal but like that is by far his weakest part of his golf game everything else across the board has been awesome

And I have been just clicking his name repeatedly I haven’t really been that disappointed last week obviously could have been a lot better and there’s some opportunity cost with some of the other guys up there like Justin Thomas who I had none of so there is that but like I

Think just 998th Strokes gained off the tea here amongst this field I mean that’s over a 50 round sample size that is a little bit problematic to me and I think I just want to get to all the minw Lee um I I think minw Lee is

Going to be somebody that I just play a ton here and again Eric Cole is literally at the top of my model and as soon as I say that I know for a fact that I’m not going to be playing him in single entry I’m probably going to be

Massively underweight or maybe have Next To None just because I expect him to be the comfortable click here and I don’t think his skill set fits this specific golf course he is going to be good at difficult golf courses his home course is freaking Bay Hill for the love of God

But like um that is a completely different Beast than what we got this week and off the tea being as premium as what it is I think I’m just going to hit a fair fair enough I get it um again this is not to B this is always what I

Love about this early season golf everyone because we have limited data is relying on recent form probably more than they should be but the form of what you do at like AMX or Sony or even Sentry is so different than what you’re going to see at Tory South and that is

Something I think we have to factor and we did have a question about fatigue if guys have played going into a short week early in the season I don’t worry about that I think everyone is so fresh that it’s not as big a deal than if you’ve played like five straight weeks leading

Into the FedEx Cup or something that’s my take I’m right there with you let’s get to the next batch of golfers I do want to say real quick obviously you see it on the screen it’s going to stay on the screen if you are interested in

Checking out the Sims for PGI it’s there the link is below again we we have talked about this so much about just the progression of DFS there was a time where ownership projections were the new thing there was a time where the concept of projections and then optimizers came

And now all that stuff is second nature basically everyone who plays DFS utilizes those things in their process Sims is like that this is the beginning of it you can be early to it but it’s it’s not going away the tools are too powerful they are awesome they’re

Customizable they’re and the best part they’re simple to use I am someone that’s a hand builder I always have been I always will be and I still use these Sims every single slate now part of my process check them out the link is below no reason not to my man Jordan threw him

In chat but let’s keep going we’re kind of in that upper mid- tier now the 8K range hean and Harris English theala who you mentioned Hideki grades out wildly good I can’t wait to hear what you have to say on him talk to me about these

Type of players uh hi to my buddy uh athanasios uh just hi hello I know that he’s watching here at the moment and I will say I well he’s just a phenomenal poker player WPT stud but uh I’m going to be playing Hideki for the first time

Maybe in Forever um it’s probably been over a year since I clicked on his name was vehemently against playing him in Hawaii we got some decent signs there that’s the first time that I’ve been actually impressed by seeing the combination of off the tea approach around the green like everything looked

Pretty good was pretty flat with the with the putter again a 30th there it is what it is it wasn’t like you got some kind of massive reward out of it I was very happy to have zero there but as you said he he creates out wildly good and

He’s the kind of guy and this is this is kind of the way that I think about it he’s the kind of guy who can go out and shoot a 63 or a 64 on a very difficult Golf Course where other people just don’t have that mentality they don’t

Have that ability and you look at other guys in this range like Harris English is going to get a lot of attention I like Keegan Bradley this week theala he obviously finished third I believe here last season and sep stra is my boy so I’m going to be playing him for sure but

Like Hideki I’m actually feeling better about than I was expecting based on just kind of going through some of the numbers has a couple of rounds under his belt I don’t know what you think about it but like I’m I’m very tempted to play him in single entry although I’m

Probably not going to yeah I I like it so a couple things one Hideki plays Farmers every year every single year he’s got loads of experience uh for him I think in particular Shane Lowry comes to mind as well there are certain players where I do think like rust they

Just have to work into the season a little bit Hideki it’s not to say he can’t start we’ve seen him in Hawaii do some things but when he’s out of form a little bit those rounds mean a lot and then you you echoed and I this is definitely tangential but man I’ll never

Forget it like I saw Hideki teir apart fir Stone best maybe the best round of golf I’ve ever seen the guy can destroy difficult courses his irons are immaculate when he putts his around the green game is underrated he consistently gains around the green it’s just the

Putter and he’s used to these greens he’s seen them a ton he came in ninth last year here he gained 5.7 Strokes uh with that putter he’s had a third here I like the spot The Sims like him I like him I’m certainly not gonna start with

Him that’s way too low but he’s an easy second man in if you attach to one of the 10K golfers yeah I think what I’m debating because I’m going to play SEP straka I know that I’m going to have him in my single entry I just love him and I

Think the combination of just ball striking off the te approach I think it’s all going to be there and you go into like a 50 round sample size for him it’s not necessarily fair you trim it down to like 24 rounds here are the most

Recent form for him he’s just a dude he is one of these guys I mean we saw him show out at the Open Championship last season he almost shot 59 at the John Deere uh obviously different ball game in both dimensions like neither of those are going to really translate here but

The skill set I think is going to be there I I like what I’m seeing from from like I mean everybody’s there which is the frustrating part and that’s where the Hideki thing it’s like do I want to pair two guys that are 17 20% owned uh currently in our projections and they’re

Probably going to be a little bit higher owned in single entry I’m going to be trimming Eric Cole that 20% I’m going to be trimming the 21% Harris English and I’m going to potentially be playing ludvig at 2.4% so like there’s still a lot of ways that I can get different uh

With my portfolio but like I think this is just this is like the back and forth that I’m having with with him for that specific tournament like in large field I’m going to be overweight toi when you look at the bottom of the range because I like that I’m going to

Also probably have a couple mid eights uh in the pool maybe even together then it gets a little interesting Rose [ __ ] Daniel Burger will Z guys working back from injury Bez got a price bump uh after a really good showing last week is there anyone there I mean what do you

Make of burger and will Z two guys that are also o working back different situation obviously with injuries uh but is it time to maybe start buying on them yeah so if you’re going to buy will Z this is probably the week to do it right like more difficult Golf Course a little

Bit more demanding if the ball striking shows up um you know this is also a spot where putting isn’t at a premium you’re not on these perfect surfaces that everybody else is making putts and you’re watching him Yip it around the yard um I feel as though I’m more in on

Him than I am Daniel burer although I don’t think anything you saw from Daniel Burger was disheartening it was nice to see a made cut top 40 you know that’s about all you could have really hoped for from Daniel Burger first time out he

Got out of the gate hot but you know in those birdie fests it’s hard to really know where you’re going to be landing there at the end but hard to really use any data points for Daniel Burger other than hey he was really really good once

Upon a time we all know that it was with the irons that he really dominated had a pretty decent around the green game as well but you know whether it was colonial whether it was some of these other tracks that you that’s where you really saw Daniel Burger shine little

Bit different Beast here I I feel as though I’m going to be out on him will Z I want to talk myself into a little bit but uh Bez give give the people the Bez talk because I mean you’re obviously the Whisperer are we running it back so uh

Yeah first of all the thing that makes it a little easier for me with Daniel burer is I didn’t I don’t like him at this course to begin with uh okay so like I’m just not huge on Farmers for him in general so not as big a deal I

Think will Z is the more interesting of the two now Bez this is where it gets tricky this is the age-old like you know why why would you not want to play a guy who’s playing extremely well uh but playing extremely well as price has risen was that just kind of an outlier

Those easier courses I think the true answer is somewhere in the middle again looking at the Sims uh you know you don’t have anything great there will Z certainly grades out better and I do side to will Z over Bez I might have some just because I do want to buy and

He’s been a long-term buy for me but I think this is probably closer to where he should be and a guy like Shane Lowry is $100 cheaper than him that’s pretty interesting to me I’m not gonna lie yeah Shane Lowry I played last week um it was

It was kind of man he missed the cut he played really poorly and then all of a sudden he tried to make that cut by finishing I believe birdie birdie ho out Eagle which was pretty wild to watch I was like wait am I going to get that one

Through because there was a lineup that I had that needed him to make the cut it did not make the cut but either way I’m probably going to be playing some Justin Rose I’m not a big Justin Rose in the year of Our Lord 2024 guy but I mean

This is just a golf course where there’s some undeniable Rapport that he has with it and uh he just plots it around so well in some of these tracks that Justin Rose feels like like an automatic buy at any ownership that’s single digits and that’s currently where it’s at right now

Um won’t play him in single entry either for what it’s worth but uh feel pretty good about him being a large field Target Bez yeah I’m having a tough time getting there this week I played a little bit for you did not end up betting him thank God because then I

Would be depressed right now too but um I think you’re going to be hitting one of these sooner rather than later I I’m just going to kind of listen to you when it comes to a guy like Bez mainly because like I we know he can get it

Going with the putter we know that he’s somebody that uh can get really really streaky in that department with the irons too but like off the tea game if I’m going to be out on like an Eric Cole and just say oh man this is going to be

Demanding you hit in the rough a couple times like you kind of falls into that bucket where it’s like for me I’m not going to be playing an Eric Co and I’m probably not going to be playing a Bez just purely because if you’re hitting at

295 in the rough and other guys are hitting at 320 down the pipe and it’s wet and it’s more difficult and it’s a more premium ball striking week probably gonna just write off the guys that don’t have that capability yeah I mean obviously he can navigate he’s shown the

Ability to do some of that on tough courses but I still think uh all in all there are some better spots for him so I’m gonna I’m gonna side more towards Lowry will Z and Rose in that but I want to work down we’re kind of in the still

In the mid-range but in the 7K range luk list grades out very well Jagger’s on the Eric cold train of like 20 straight made Cuts very impressive stuff Swenson Hustler Ryan Fox is a name that has come up who who’s shown in majors and whatnot

That he’s there uh what do you make in the upper sevens I so on Steven jger this week it’s ridiculous so um I did kind of a deep dive on him yesterday because I I couldn’t believe when you just kind of look at the modeling and

Obviously we use the same place when we look at specific guys and you’re able to do some really cool stuff over at that side now as well so shout out to the guys who’ done some awesome stuff there but um I was a little bit thrown off the

Fact that he was like top 20 and strokes gain off the tea because if you do recall doing these shows together back in 2022 I bought in pretty heavy during the fall swing as he got his tour card he had some of the best around the green

Game that you could ever see in your entire life coming through the corn fairy tour ranks into early PGA Tour form and it’s like all right if he has that off the T form it’d be great he had lost Strokes in 16 straight events in 2022 off the

Tean that’s insane this season or coming off of the John Deere from last season he has gained in one two 3 four five six seven eight nine consecutive tournaments with Strokes gain data and something tells me the other two the American Express again I I don’t take anything

Away from that but like he has been awesome in that regard and you add that around the green element to it I think that’s kind of like my my my true pairings with a lot of these guys like joerger goes so well with minwoo like that’s those are the kind of guys I’m

Finding these like tiny little mini pairings that I’m just going to put together in more lineups or build out in single entry and I just keep gravitating towards him because that skill set specifically I think he’s going to have a really really good week I considered

Making him my hot take I have somebody else for that this week try to run that back but I’m kind of in love with stepen jger this week and I don’t think I’ve clicked on that name forever yeah I mean I he’s someone that obviously in the outright Market hasn’t

Hasn’t broken through yet but there’s so much Nuance to that and here at 7,800 if he kind of keeps doing what he’s doing he’s really going to continue to pay dividends in these lineups even if it’s not breaking through could he do that

Sure uh no doubt I I got to check in on you are the Hospital whisper this is your guy uh and he survived he’s another one you know he’s got all the skills at times but you know off the te sometimes with the irons it’s pretty loose is is

This a track you want to take a shot at absolutely like this is this is the bow Hustler week so I bet Bo Hustler I’m going to Probably yeah I’m GNA play a lot of Bo Hustler this week again this is just the the typical he’s going to be one of the best around the green players period on the p J tour from now until the day that he dies he is that good you play with

Him and he gets up and down out of trash cans he adds the driving element to it he’s been positive in that regard throughout his PGA Tour tenure as well the irons can be broken from time to time but again even though it’s smaller surfaces here par is at a premium and

That skill set of off the te to try to give yourself better looks and then adding the around the green portfolio and then the putter has been pretty decent had the second at the Zozo during the fall I think you bet him that week too was that another second you had on

Your card yeah I’ve been I’ve been peppering the uh so proud of you the runnerup market for quite a while that’s why they got top fives were invented not that I take advantage of them but that’s why they did invent those well Bo hostler is going to top 10 for the

People here this week so fire that one up put that on your betting card there you have it and again it’s a pretty Wide Open Range you know looking at the Sims you’re getting uh kind of a mixed bag here no one jumps off the page which I

Like I think it’s going to be pretty flat there will be ownership no doubt about it I’m going to make a case for senson he’s another guy that I I think that is Farmers the ideal situation for him honestly I’m not sure I think he’s

More of an easy course type guy but the ball striking has been there consistently the form has been there consistently and I think he’s just kind of a better player than he was he’s played this event three times he was 35th in 2019 nothing really since then

Terms of positive results but I’m still willing to go to him I agree that hosler in play as well what do you make though of batia Ryan Fox I mean these type of players in that it’s in the same price range very different skill sets yeah

Different skill sets I mean Once Upon a Time uh you were the Grio Whisperer so I guess you you’ll kind of speak to that one a little bit uh can get crazy hot with a putter uh that is kind of a a fun element that he’s added to his

Repertoire he’s 12th and strokes game putting over his last 50 rounds that seems made time to be alive that seems absolutely made up amongst this field but anyway um is it Sunni is it Sunni again this guy just keeps popping uh every single freaking week in a model

And I don’t know why but uh probably won’t get there this week even though he’s 1% owned Billy H horel I can’t really do with the off the te game I mean for me it’s Aaron Ry in this range I’m gonna be getting to some $7,400

Aaron Ry Ryan Fox doesn’t really have it for me yeah he can be good off the tea but pretty much everything else has been lackluster for the last four to six months obviously uh there’s no real recent form to to Peg with him so I’m not going to go crazy with anything um

It’s been a while since we’ve seen him I don’t think I’m going to be buying in there whatsoever Adam shank is going to be popular this is this is as we get to like 7,300 I think that that’s going to be somebody else that you kind of have

To make some decisions on and I’m just kind of gravitating towards Davis Thompson down here 7200 but I don’t really have any strong leans anywhere outside of Aaron Rya here in like the the low sevens yeah I mean again I think the nice thing about this range is that

You don’t need to get crazy with the St like yes there are going to be some people and again our ownership of course right in into the tools and whatnot I don’t think it’s going to be crazy decision points though you’re just choosing best available for a lot of

These you have a number of pivots uh yeah I’ll give a a two cent spiel about Grio yeah he’s obviously found something with the putter in the last year there’s no doubt about it some of that has come at the expense of the irons I know it

Always kind of works like that which is ironic in some ways but if they sync up it it’s really an opportunity for him um I do worry that he just gets eaten alive around the green at times in a in a place like this but I think it’s fine

I’m a little more skeptical of a guy like Rio uh huni who’s been fantastic but I think like when you go from birdie fests to this it’s a it’s a big question for guys that I don’t know a lot about so I’ll side with a guy like Grio like

Pendrith he’s right there as well 7400 um yeah just to round out the loop on that I mean it’s easy to go to easy golf courses and see a guy who can shoot 25 under over in in Asia and then all of a sudden comes over and has some success

In Hawaii a lot of Asian guys have had success coming over there from the Asian tour having some great outings uh over at both the Sony um you know if they get to the Sentry from time to time that’s been a thing as well but um I don’t

Really think you need to go out of your way to roster a 1% guy at 7500 because the opportunity cost like he would really have to to put it up in a way where I mean he hasn’t even done the the kind of outing that would really

Burn you at this kind of ownership 30th and 11th yeah you’d be pretty darn happy to have him there at 11th but think there’s going to be somebody else that pops here in this range and so give me pretty much everybody else there I think

There’s going to be times to buy on him in the future he seems like he’s a pretty darn good player but like don’t get carried away thinking oh he’s only 1% I need to jam him in this spot mainly because like Adam shank is is kind of a

A more known quantity and he’s like 0.1% that’s not accurate but like we’re going to get Adam shank or like Taylor Moore or guys that we just know more about uh more known quantities and kind of have a better idea of their skill set at that

Kind of an ownership so for me don’t don’t get out of don’t go crazy just because of somebody’s current form yep again that’s where I think early season recent form can be very misleading uh it’s oh this guy’s playing great he’s just going to keep playing great that is

Not how it works whatsoever last couple guys in the sevens then we’ll talk some salary Savers talk about what else is going on in the industry but you’ve got guys like uh Justin Sue Bor detri KH Lee eek root another one of your guys Gary Woodland Pavone I mean just again mixed

Bag open season of who you could Target here you a little bit confused that nobody wants to play KH Lee this week EPC Lee is normally not not in uh in my lineups but the guy has just been out honestly very impressive he’s made six straight cuts going back you know

I’m talking swing season he was 25th last week I like KH Le a lot I mean they’re around the green game that’s kind of the the high point of his golf game he’s pretty flat but relative to other guys in this range it’s like okay like I I’ll

Take K I’m just a little bit confused that nobody wants to play him considering he’s had some events here looked pretty good the form’s been all right um everybody wants to play Che chess and Hadley and I I do not think chess and Hadley is a guy that you want

Necessarily on this golf course do you so he’s someone that that he’s such a fascinating evaluation because when the conditions are soft potentially and it becomes target practice when he’s on CH adley can go low there’s no doubt about that but he’s so much more of like a

This is a joke course let’s let’s shoot six like I worry about him his around the green game is just weak it’s it’s always been weak it’s not a strength it’s not going to be a strength so he puts tremendous strain on his irons and

I do think uh farmers will test that if you don’t believe me just look at the course history for for chess and Hadley four straight miscuts at the farmers I don’t think that that’s a coincidence yeah and just getting ownership I don’t get it um there are just some some interesting interesting

Reads here down here um we talked about uh wisey we talked about Daniel Berg are we going to be playing any Gary Woodland because out of the three this feels like a time where if Gary Woodland were to pop if we were to find something I mean

His ball striking alone I know he can hit those blazing two irons probably doesn’t have a ton of utility if it’s super wet but like oh Gary I I want to play him down here because nobody else again there’s no opportunity cost here nobody’s getting rostered like Matt

Wallace might get some attention later but I’m not going to probably get there I mean do we buy into an unknown Gary Woodland cuz this would be a track that you would otherwise want to be there if you hadn’t hadn’t be off for a year yeah

I I get it I’m I’m still a little more on the wait and see um it is an open range that does help like if I if I really need someone there but I worry about and the thing I want to point out with Gary Woodland I do think he’s a

Tough evaluation even for tools because that we just don’t it’s such an an unquantifiable variable about being off and and just knowing his skill set and his make him a great play at this price point but is he that guy right now I I tend to think probably not so it is a

Little scary there’s not much else there though like you mentioned Matt Wallace sh Kim is there not going to be popular but just another guy that I think belongs in the conversation give me a 30 seconds on ecro we have we’re we’re contractually obligated for you to talk about your boy

I absolutely love my boy um how could you not like everything that you’ve seen from him I i’ I’ve said it constantly out of Oklahoma State you know i’ i’ know a lot of people in Florida California from my college golf days and uh they talked about how solid and put

Together this kid is right from the get-go going to fall more into like the grinder category eventually but like off the te so strong 26th we’re talking about a $7,100 golfer that that has the skill set the best of the skill set I mean it’s him and and Sh Kim like those

Are the two guys down here that have the best off the tea game and the best off the tea portfolio Vincent Norman once we get into the sixks I’m actually interested in but um Austin eot is going to just be one of those guys who puts

The ball in the hole in some of these difficult spots and now we’ve seen him start to to shoot out in shootouts like eth at the RSM 25th at the American Express I like him more in difficult tracks like this 10th at the US Open second at the AT&T Byron Nelson is in

The best comp but like there are so many of these spots where I just think Austin ekro brings such a strong off the te game 3.1 and 2.6 in the last two that we’ve seen with Strokes gain data that is the that is the real bright spot in

His golf game and to know that I’m finally getting the best of his skill set on a difficult track I mean this is the auto buy for me fair enough again and this is going to be depending on how aggressive you are up top it’ll determine if you can

Last man in a guy like that or you’re gonna have to go to the sixes my guess for majority of lineups there’s not a ton of value out there you’re gonna have to dip a little bit and let’s let’s talk about that before we do though I do want

To mention you know if like I said the winners of the PGA Tour these days are like 600 to one every week uh it’s it’s really just outrageous some of these prices and we’re getting to those guys and if you are betting those guys you know first of all a couple dollars is

Going to do it but I would recommend using you know bonus bets if you have them and and one place to get bonus bets right now is BET MGM they’ve got the BET and get what does it mean yeah bet five get 158 in bonus bets if you don’t play

There the link is below you sign up you got to deposit 10 bucks bet it bet five bucks win or lose it does doesn’t matter you’re getting 158 bonus bets what you use that on is up to you bet bet the football games bet college basketball

Bet PGA it does not matter but it is an opportunity and you get access to bet MGM me and Eric are both on our Discord dropping bets all the time and sometimes the best line happens to be there you save yourself a bunch of money by having

Access to it you got to be 21 plus if you have a gambling problem called 1800 gambler but uh think about taking advantage even if it’s a small balance of getting that and getting that boost and getting $158 in bonus bets you mentioned Vincent Norman he kicks off the 6K range you’ve

Got Grayson Sig there as well uh Bobby Mack is perpetually 6,800 semi Cawa lanto an A A Litany of names who stood out to you yeah so 44th last year uh at the farmers Vincent Norman so he’s at least been out here seen the track and didn’t completely suck that’s a that’s a

Plus his best part of his golf game even though it hasn’t been so far this season Vincent Vincent Norman is a off the te specialist and I look at him at 6,900 um not completely zero in some regards with the irons and around the green game the

Putter you know you’re running into a buzs saww a lot of the time but like you compare him to identically price Maverick mcney who generally is one of my guys he’s not one of my guys this week there’s just no way that I’m going to play him relative to like Vincent

Norman knowing that there’s such a demand on the ball striking so um I’m going to be clicking on him I think Bobby Mack this is now the week like grinder Golf Course a little bit more like I think I’m pretty excited about that and then a blind backing of Cameron

Champ um luk list obviously came out of obscurity there and now he’s crazy popular here this week he’s been in better form but like Cameron Champ could be one of those guys to buy on a little bit of a dip as well he’s kind of been

Floundering on the PG tour we know how much crazy Talent he has um but the American Express birdie Fest it was not pretty last week I mean just absolute dun cap stuff but off the te he gained 4.4 and missed the the cut at the Sony

If he gains 4.4 off the T he’s making a cut here because everything else it would take the apocalypse to really kind of like gain 4.4 and still not make this cut and he had been positive with the putter in three of four leading up to it

So uh if you’re playing the Luke list if you’re going strong off the tee for some of your paired skill sets God do I kind of like Cameron Champ as that 6,800 guy yeah the fascinating thing there are multiple players that fit exactly what you’re talking about with the same skill

Set and bad form joh Vegas is right there Schmid is right there those guys are bombers off the tea the same thing and then none of them have made a cut at all uh so you can I’m not saying link them all up but you can choose that type

Of player in that type of range and and if you do gain with off the te it could carry you a lot further this week uh I want to bring up one name that I don’t know if I’ve ever mentioned him on a show honestly and that’s why I’m asking

You because God knows I don’t know a lot about Chan Kim who oh yeah this is a guy again got some Talent no doubt about it 14th at AMX and that broke a string of no form something or nothing uh as we head into this week he walks goofy as

[ __ ] for what it’s worth it’s really funny to watch that’s the information yeah I like a little he’s just like the happiest guy just walking around but Chan Kim um yeah he is an off the tea guy I mean that’s that’s the easiest way to put it um everything else is pretty

Broken down the putter is one of the worst on the PGA tour but f uh yeah well I was going to say if you’re GNA play guys like that this is the week where it’s neutralized where good Putters are going to have Po and it’s going to

Bounce and do whatever else if Chan Kim just can kind of streak it together um that is that’s kind of it I’m probably going to be getting to a little of Carson young here I know last week doesn’t really matter to me it’s not that he played well last week because he

Did 17th there but um the week before that the Sony missed the cut doing everything well except for putting you do everything well except except for putting and I’m probably going to buy low on you on just about any situation like this nice to not have the stroke

Gain data and obviously there’s no ownership coming into anybody down here so um I’m going to be playing him Vincent way is the only guy getting any ownership in these high six range 6800 he’s at kind of prefer just straight up going to him going to Gim um the the gim

Reaper I think this is a good week for him to to add to the portfolio just another off the tea guy uh just don’t don’t play the off the tea drink and game listening through the show again but uh Carson young I am going to be a Buy

On how low are you looking to you know we’ve mentioned some guys at 67 got her up baby got her up is 65 how low are you looking to go I’m looking at my lineups here because I built out I’m not playing 150 but I’m building out 150 I’m sorting some stuff

Um I have one share of pieres and CTI but that’s not that’s not going to happen that would get automatically vetoed um let’s see 6,500 yeah I’ve got look Chris got up is frustrating there was some obvious form right from the get-go sometimes there’s guys like Michael Kim

It just takes him a couple years to really get it going but I mean [ __ ] he played well during the corn fairy swing where at periods of time the nvs Invitational good little track fourth there tied fifth later on in the season he’s getting some of these starts the

American Express he shot 77 the first round backed it up 6866 like Chris gup has game and it’s all going to be off the tea that is the thing that he was kind of coming out of Oklahoma that was the calling card and I think 6,500 is probably the lowest that

I’m going to go I’m probably G to have a share or two of him and that’s going to be it I don’t see anything I need to have 6,500 or down unless you correct me no not at all I’m not going to correct you I think that more often than not you

Don’t want to go down there uh again I still think Block’s playing Michael yeah that’s exactly what I’m trying to avoid um Nick watney’s playing there’s some there’s some names and not names in a good way uh as we get to the lower ranges I think for stuff like that first

Of all if when you know I run my Sims and everything gets updated there’s a guy that stands out sure but as you mentioned the most important thing you don’t need a ton of ownership on any of these guys there’s not going to be any popularity in the low sixes that’s just

Not how it works again these tools are there whether you’re using lineup generator or The Sims to kind of identify that I think we did a pretty good job here do you have any final thoughts before we get into a hot take and we bounce on out of here no I mean

This is a a really good week to pair skill sets like I I haven’t done it as much this week or at the beginning of the season because you get different draws you get different courses you get different tea times you get a lot of this stuff you get an opportunity to

Either blindly you know get get some draw where maybe hey it’s playing really really wet and you want to play the South course the first time out and then it hardens up on Friday you could do some stuff where you blindly do that but more so I am really being specific about

Skill set pairings I am pairing minwu Lee with some other great off the tea around the green type specialist because if the approach is not as necessary is what it seems like it has over the last couple of years like you still have the winners who end up positive in approach

Max hom Justin Rose these are guys that are going to still be gaining with the irons but like overall as you’re putting together six golfers I want to have skill set pairings more so this week at a difficult course than on most weeks fair enough yeah I I do think that that

Matters and it’s something I’ve always advocated for more on difficult tracks uh all right it is time it’s been a it’s been a fun time so far with this little segment let’s get to Hot takes for the Farmers Insurance open here last week it couldn’t have gone better you nailed Tom

Kim I mentioned Bez he came in second couldn’t get the whole thing but we will take it do you want to lead us off or would you like me to go I’ll let you go first uh it’s nice I’m actually cheering for somebody this week rather than

Against Tom cam last week although uh I didn’t have to really sweat that one very hard it was pretty that was that was pretty sweat Fay uh I’m gonna go with and I think there’s really two guys here but I’m gonna pick one of them in the mid-range they both happen to be

Canadian as a sleeper give me Adam senson Adam senson is that guy right now I like pendrith as well but this is a guy like I said he’s been making a ton of cuts hasn’t m missed since last June but you got the Sony Open ball striking good putter flat Sentry ball striking

Good putter flat now is this his ideal course again I’m not sure but the way he’s playing I think his game is evolving you’re looking at a guy with Adam senson pretty good odds here I’m talking a seven and a half to one for a top 10 something like that north of 100

To one if you want to go for it he is the sleeper this week that I’m going to call has a good week Adam senson as my Farmers Insurance open sleeper for the bedding Market all right right this is a will Z week friends I I am I was saving

It I am very convinced that wisey puts himself in contention this week we’ve been waiting for a more difficult Golf Course a spot where it puts more of a premium on being off the tea approach like ball striking extraordinary and you get on a track where other golfers are

Going to struggle with the putter as well and I just have to blindly play will Z the talent alone we’ve seen him compete at Majors this is a major championship venue for all intents and purposes and if it’s wet this is a spot where you just want to be early to the

Party and I was pretty vly against will Z Daniel Berger here the last couple weeks as we’ve talked through that we’ve got some rounds under his belt now he’s getting some of the rust off and by the time he turns it on you’re just going to

Be late to the party you look at some of the betting odds and then you see 4% over on draftkings.com will Z top 10 book it B we got it on the board again if you have any questions at all Eric linquist jazzz DFS we’re going to have

Plenty of content I have an article already posted and if you are in our community here at stochastic you’re in the Discord say what’s up to us whether you’re on the betting side at OD chop or here on the DFS side for stochastic and really think about the links are below

Taking advantage of what we’ve got going on with these tools it can really make the difference but see what we can do friends again Wednesday lock make sure you put in those lineups that’s why if you’re watching this on Wednesday uh appreciate that but you you have missed

The boat unless it’s very early but for me for Eric for Mr Jordan Klein behind the glass thanks as always friends enjoy the rest of your day enjoy the farmers back next week same time same Place