Today on From The Tips, a free golf betting preview and predictions for the Sony Open. We look at which sportsbook betting apps you can find the best golf odds for our PGA Tour Picks this week and Sony Open Picks. We break down the field, preview the course, give our PGA Best Bets with real analysis, plus our golf betting tips, free PGA betting picks and predictions. We also look at golf props and which online sportsbook has the best betting lines for PGA Tour Odds.
From The Tips – Golf Betting Tips
00:00 – 2024 Sony Open Preview
02:18 – Sony Open Field
12:14 – John’s Model
19:03 – John’s Card
Read John’s full Tournament preview here and betting card here:
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Hello what’s going on guys I’m John alar golf rider forth lines.com this is from the tips first video of 2024 uh excited to be back talking golf in the new year for the First full field Tournament of the season the Sony Open Hawaii at Wii Country Club it has been
About 3 months I would say since my last video I think it was at the fortnet so it’s been a long time coming since I got to talk some golf a lot has changed I don’t have enough time in this video to go through everything that has changed
Since the last time I recorded one um but in any case I am excited to have a full field tournament at an event that we hit the winner at in seiw Kim was actually my Spotlight feature that week um so a lot of good vibes going into uh
Wly country club before we get any further uh anybody who’s new to the channel make sure you are subscribed to the Lin’s YouTube you find that right below this video hit that uh hit that subscribe button ring the bell for new notifications um you can also find in
The link to this description the links to my articles onthel lines.com where you can get my full tournament preview uh the Discord is also linked in there and new this year uh is a partnership with Underdog and we’re really excited about that partnership I personally uh
Was kind of aware of Underdog for other sports but they’ve really up their game in Golf this year uh and the lines is now partnered with them so you can use promo code the line let me say that again a little bit more
Articulately the lines t h e l i n s uh you can use that promo code to get $100 deposit match uh for your first deposit on Underdog so that is linked in the description as well and uh again very excited about that partnership excited to kind of test new Waters Beyond just
Bedding and DraftKings um and I’m going to be writing a little bit more content later uh next week doing a full Deep dive into strategy for PJ best ball so don’t want to miss that again make sure you are subscribed to this channel so you don’t um and we’ll be doing from the
Tips weekly uh course breakdowns um every week going forward this year so getting into the uh the field at Sony Open I’m going to share my screen with my uh tournament preview which again you can find on the homepage atth lines.com um interesting very interesting Dynamic at the Sony Open
This week um so last week there was an expanded field at the century Tournament of Champions it was the largest one in tournament history of 59 players that meant a lot more people who are not typically in Hawaii are and there’s a ton of first timers in the field this
Week um you can see here in the field at a glance uh aberer or I should say Oar uh TL Hatton Matt Fitzpatrick will zuris and AA batia are all not only are they all uh first timers but they’re all I would say the top seven to eight
Favorites this week uh with o Hatton and Fitzpatrick here being the top three so very unusual I can’t really ever think of the last time we’ve had an event where all three of the top favorites have never played the course before and it’s especially interesting at a course
Like wildlight country club which has such predictive course history to it uh you’ve seen guys like web Simpson Chris Kirk Cory Connor Russ Henley the list goes on these accurate short course plotters just seem to be able to repeat success on courses where you reward accuracy over distance and have the same
Kind of about 150 yard shot into the green on every every hole more or less on these par fours there’s also only two par fivs at whight Country Club um that means that par five scoring deprioritize that’s something that somebody liking L wigo bear uh can use to his advantage
With his Elite length um to kind of lap the field and gain and scoring in that area when there’s only two and they’re the two easiest courses the two easiest holes on the course not only that but two of the easiest part fivs on the entire PGA Tor not much of an advantage
If you’re a good part five scorer so that is a reason if you’re looking to fade the favorites this week why I would say this the premium skill sets that and oar or FS Patrick or even hat and bring can kind of be diminished at a course like this now course history is
Predictive this is not necessarily a course I would say you have to play a couple times before you figure it out so I understand why they are favorites they are better talents than everybody else in the field um but not where I will necessarily be starting my car this week
Um and then just kind of going to we’re going to skip to just the field at glance I think it’s a bit more informative to look at everybody who’s playing in the odds to kind of set the table for who we’re looking for this week uh so we talked about Oar Hatton
And Fitzpatrick again we’re at the bottom the odds comparison table which is always in my uh tournament preview article each week so make sure you do check that out scroll to the bottom for these refresh lines it is the best way to compare uh across legal Sports to
Make sure that you are getting the best number and not only that you can also look at uh first round leader props any any prop you can really think of um that you can drop down here top nationality if we wanted to just for example look at
Top Asian player you’ll see that seu Kim is a slight favorite on some books over hii matama so that maybe that’s an ed you want to get uh I love this tool I always go here when I’m looking to get my first bets in in the morning on
Mondays so can’t recommend enough that you check this out and use this as part as your your weekly golf betting process to make sure that you’re not missing out on the best line um so looking at the favorites is this a week that you want to begin your card uh with the favorites
You can I that’s not how I went about it this week I did choose to fade the guys who are deut ta this week uh we’ll see how that goes for me Russell Henley is always a decision you have to make at this event I was on him when he got
Chased down by Hideki matama 2 years ago so a bit of a sour taste in the mouth kind of a collapse but also kind of just a buzz saw that hiim Matsuyama was running him down um so will I go back to Russell Henley this week thought about
That a lot this 22 number that’s still available at this time of recording on FanDuel does look interesting to me this 16 number on is probably pretty fair U to be honest when you look at Russell Henley’s um track track record and actually speaking of track record why
Don’t we just flip on over to Fantasy National which I’m using for the basis of my uh model this week we can kind of just see what we’re talking about here when we when we say Russell Henley is uh course history so he got his first
Career win here in 2013 he did it with putting it was 12 Strokes gain and he hit essentially every single putt uh on Sunday which is kind of ironic because he’s kind of known for not showing up on Sundays uh that was kind of middle of the pack but always hitting Fairways you
Could see a lot of green that’s that’s what you want to see out of somebody with repeated history is that they’re always comfortable off the te hitting the fairways on these tight pinched Fairways and then Russell Henley’s always going to gain on approach so it’s
Really just a matter of are you going to gain with with with your Bermuda putting or not uh he’s been a little shaky recently over the last five is actually losing putting he goes through stretches where he hits everything to a very streaky player um I decided not to bet
Russell Henley this week but obviously someone who makes a ton of sense on this course and will get decent amount of action for anyone who wants to stomach a Russell Henley outright after Henley you have Brian Haron the open Champion here at 25 Cory Connors uh Eric Cole Chris
Kirk JT poen is kind of the next tier um couple thoughts I guess on this part of the board um if I’m going to start my card up top I probably want to chase repeated course history um and something that’s really important to me this week is just being able to
Hit the fairways Under Pressure play this course out of the Fairway is such a big difference uh to be at Wy Country Club in the Fairway be able to control your Spin and just seek pins versus playing out of the rough which they have grown out more starting last year to be
More punitive uh that’s just you can’t really make birdies out of the rough here it is a penalty and we really haven’t seen penal Ru on the PGA tour since before the RSM classic it’s been a good two months since the guys were tested uh on a course where you need to
Hit the fairways and avoid the rough so that’s going to be a very interesting thing I’m looking for this week guys who play well on comp courses some comps to hear that I think are just worth calling out um that reward sort of driving accuracy and mid irons definitely Harbor
Town comes to mind a lot of crossover with guys who have played well here and there the Bermuda connection as well um uh but CI Island where we did have the RSM classic although there’s less rough here that that is uh very correl of course and cville Country Club is
Probably the best example of a short course that doesn’t really matter so much par five scoring rewards Bermuda putting and it’s going to force you to hit a lot of good mid irons I think there’s probably more correlation with um with Sedgefield and the wind of Championship than any other course web
Simpson is another great example someone who just dominates at both events um so that’s all something that I rolled into my model this week very important for me comp course history um but yeah driving driving accuracy very important that’s why somebody liking Eric Cole who just that’s another one I think we should
Probably just pull up his page so we can look at what Eric Cole’s been doing over the last couple months it’s in it’s really insane the run this guy continues to go on without taking any weeks off um the stretch from the rookie last year carrying over is hard to ignore four
Third second third and a 14th where he was shooting one of the best rounds on the course on Sunday last week so he ended on a high note even though it doesn’t really look that way can get scorching hot with the Putter and is especially good on Bermuda being that he
Is from uh Florida uh and and just is most familiar with Bermuda greens now the issue that I’m going to have this week on an Eric Cole despite this incredible consistency is all the red off the tea I think that’s really going to hurt you at Wy if you can’t
Repeatedly hit these Fairways obviously he is kind of used to playing out of the rough because he’s not a great driver both on accuracy and distance which makes these finishes even more remarkable um but if you can’t do that repeatedly I don’t see how you’re going
To win at this event so Eric Cole is actually going to be kind of a sell high fade for me somebody that I might look to Target against in matchups this week um and then you go to somebody like a Chris Kirk who’s coming off of a century
Tournament at champ or the centy tournament win uh still available at 35 to1 I think that’s a little disrespectful to Kirk I think had he not played last week 35 to1 would still make sense for him has a pair of top three finishes here over the last four years
Uh and is somebody who can repeatedly sort of hit that same uh draw off the te and can get very hot uh with putting on Bermuda so somebody I gave a lot of thought did not end up getting there but I do really like Kirk I don’t think
There’s going to be much of a let down after winning the century the guy’s one of the most even killed players on tour he’s not going to be doing a lot of celebrating after a win like that so I think he just tries to keep riding that
Hot form and it’s somebody that I think is going to be a threat this week maybe not going to get there on the betting card but I do like him uh as a DFS play at the very least as an underdog play for sure somebody I definitely love in
That market because you’re not worrying about paying up for a certain price um I I think he keeps it going I’ll Lucas L uh a few months ago when he went on his late uh FedEx playoff uh run so with uh that being sort of the
Top of the board I’m going to switch over now to my model and one thing I’m going to try to do a little bit differently um this year because I really do want these videos to be succinct to the point um just getting the main points across without having to
Sit here for a half hour did not do a good job of that last year I think these dragged on to all the half hour and I was rushing through everything so with these videos I’m not going to go through every single stat and why really what’s
Important is that you know the most important stats the stats that are going to be popular that might be a little bit negligible um I will show everybody that popped in my model as well as the guys that I bet but I won’t go line for line
Um with exactly who and why for every single bet I place um just trying to get the most important information out and as distinct as possible possible is my New Year’s resolution U for this video series um so important stats for whilei Country Club Str gain approach of course
Second shot course is in the sense that uh you don’t have to hit a per you don’t have to be an elite driver of the ball on this course but you do have to be accurate um so as long as you’re playing out of the Fairway this is a course that
You want to be top tier on approach not only that but across the I didn’t label it here with the proximity range of 125 to 200 if you’re there’s not many shots over 200 and there’s not a lot of short wedge shots here um something you might
Have noticed at at caloa last week there were a lot of flip wedge approaches uh wedge shots from inside 50 a course that really skilled uh players around the green tend to score very well because the ball just keeps running out on those undulations you can have 400 plus yard
Drives and leave yourself inside 100 very much not the case here um you are going to be kind of laying back off the te trying to prioritize Precision uh hit some layoff layups whether it be three Woods off the te or just taking it easy with the driver um
And and just trying to do everything you can to stay in the uh in the Fairway this is not like a colonial type of setup where guys have just bypassed the fairways try to hit it as close as they can cut off angles and all that good St
Not the strategy here you want to be in the Fairway and this one of very few courses I would say at this Point um who are short and still required to be in the Fairway um just one more example of this like our TPC River Highlands where
We have the The Travelers um has stopped over the last few years being a course where you need to be in the Fairway now everybody just overpowers that course uh and and pounds driver so uh for me personally I’m putting I I don’t always put a lot of Fairway gained um Fairways
Gained uh emphasis on my players when I’m running a model um I think it’s a little bit of an overrated stat but for a week like this I think it’s one of the exceptions where I do want the guys who just live in the Fairway and can can
Dial up a fairway finder when you need it down the stretch so approach Fairways uh approach inside 200 yards this is Bermuda putting that’s very important at Wy it’s just a true Bermuda surface and we’ve seen a lot of the guys who putt their best on Bermuda do their best work
On uh this course at w CC we also seeing a few guys who are maybe those team no putt players like a Corey Connor um kind of just figure it out here and have some of their best putting um at w when they typically would not putt well so
Sometimes it’s just a look and feel of the course where it works out uh we’ll dive into that a little bit later with Condor but I do think you want to look at sort of putting history here in addition to Bermuda to see how guys put uh at this score sometimes people it’s
The first event they play or the second event um competitively that they play in January and they’ve tried a new putting instructor they’ tried a new equipment they’re tinkering um so all of that is kind of factored into course history in these January months but if you’re doing
Something that works coming off of a long off season um those are the types of guys that I’m trying to find Value in um for this week um par 4 scoring from 400 to 500 basically all the par fours are in that range again that’s kind of a
Reason why the course history is so repeatable here uh because guys who get the same shots from within that 100 yard range um can do that on repeat year over-year um aside from that I I won’t go too much further into that into the the model details because I really do think it’s
As simple as hit Fairways uh performance on comp courses that are also short and value accuracy off the te performance on comp short Bermuda courses um short game on Bermuda and then those mid irons are really crucial for this week so with all of that I’ll now filter this to the top
10 of my model just to talk through uh understanding that these are all of the key um stats that I valued this week by the way this is uh course in comp course history um as the second most weight in my model I should have mentioned that um
So the top 10 this week we have Rose Henley Cam Davis Brian Harmon Eric Cole um Adam Spen and JT poen ludvic o TL Hatton and Hideki Matsuyama a lot of the guys have either not played this course before but are very good um or they uh
Have played courses like this very well very consistently um Justin Ro Rose was surprising to me to be number one overall in my model but you look through the stats course in comp course history he’s number three uh he’s top 10 on approach he’s really good on the short
Par fours uh for scoring and this the around the green is always class from Justin Rose so if we actually even go back back to um to Fantasy National I’ll pull back up over here um you can look at Justin Rose what he’s done recently not great
At the century but he did have that self-inflicted um penalty where I believe he lost three Strokes so I’m going to overlook that um and the last time he was here was 2017 when he finished runner up he’s got three consecutive top 15 so even though he’s
Only played here three times in the last 13 years it does seem to be that whenever he does decide to come back to Hawaii uh that he plays well and it could just be a matter of this is a very far away from home track for rows is
Very far from Europe it’s not easy you could pull up Rory maoy uh just say I don’t want to start my year in Hawaii I want to spend time with family um but he was at capala last week he’s in town he probably does like this course if he
Keeps uh putting up results like this so because of those reasons I did decide to bet Justin Rose um as the first kind of bet that I placed this week I’ll filter this now by everybody else who I bet to just quickly go through who I’m betting in the general
Um themes of why I’m betting these guys um so in order of the model I’ve also got JT Poston who is somebody who just continues to be on a tear um he’s really short course specialist but he’s lately just been showing up no matter what definitely a Bermuda guy who plays his
Best golf um on Bermuda greens Lucas clever has been incredible ball strike you See’s number one in the entire field in Strokes gained approach he’s third in total Strokes gained uh leading into this event obviously the putter is what is suspect here but if you look at his
Results um at Wy Country Club he has always ball struck his way around here his two wins at the end of last season were both on Bermuda and we have not been to uh a a true Bermuda course uh like this in in a little bit since uh
Since Glover has gone cold um and he is a southern guy so he definitely will appreciate a trip back to Bermuda uh Brandon to was my Spotlight Player right I to go to my tournament preview if you want to see all the reasons why I love
Brenan Todd this week Alex norin is a player that I never bet but he’s someone especially on Bermuda greens that short game he’s been lights out you can see he’s fourth shok around the green fifth shok putting on Bermuda so sometimes that can be enough of you’re Elite in
Those two areas to make up for some kind of average ball striking but even from the ball striking standpoint if you’re you’re top 30 um on approach and you’re kind of middle of the pack on Fairways gain uh you can you can get a hot week
So I do like Alex norin for the first time in a long time this week um Cory Connor I am going to dive into just a little bit because I think he has some of the most interesting course history when it comes to wildli Country Club uh
As you can see Cory Connor is one of the worst uh consistently bad Putters on tour I will say maybe not the worst putter on tour but he’s consistently below average every single year year uh for whatever reason at Sony Open he’s never missed the cut and up until last
Year was the first time he lost Strokes putting there but the T degree numbers are incredible it’s two times here you should be winning tournaments when you’re gaining close to 10 Strokes T to Green um and he’s done that twice in the last four year so he clearly likes this
Course the ball striking form continues to be very good um you can see you know he was positive at Sentry last week and ball striking was terrible um putting so he definitely needs that to turn around but uh this is a course that he has
Managed to turn it around at so if there was ever a time to chase uh a good pting week it seems to be that you want to do that at Sony um Matt coocher is number one in course history Bar None that’s I’m I’m going to play him at 50 to1 uh
On the on the course history at chops alone uh and then lastly uh Taylor pendrith I got him at 125 to one and uh he’s just somebody who plays very well um when it comes to short courses um very interesting short course history I I’ll pull him up very
Quickly too but you can see shers is a short course worldwide technology is sort of a coastal layout uh and then Butterfield Bermuda at Port Roy one of the better comps here so he is posting a lot of top 10 he’s not winning tournaments yet um and you wouldn’t
Think a bomber like him would do well on a course like wlly but for whatever reason these short Bermuda courses tend to suit his eye performs really good just just a good number there he may not be the perfect Fairway finder type of player but uh he does check the
Boxes so that is going to do it for um this week you see those are my those are my my uh I don’t know seven or eight bets this week a lot on the car but I did kind of fade the favorites this week trying to spread my exposure across some
Of the proven veterans and Fairway finders um this week this video went yeah pretty good 23 minutes uh going forward I think these will be 50 to 20 um try to keep them a little bit more quick hitting for you guys you can get the need to know info place your bets
And get out of here um but yeah that’s going to do it for from the tips this week excited for the 2024 season uh and wishing you all the best of luck with your bets
2 Comments
What’s your sample size for your model?
Cole, Kirk, Harman, Poston top 30 parlay +862