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In this video, our hosts discuss the early portion of the 2024 PGA tour season and event three, the second four field event. They are joined by golf expert, Keith Stewart, who provides insights into the tournaments and his predictions. The hosts and Keith have a detailed discussion around the tournament’s pro am format, where 156 players will compete across three golf courses in La Quinta, California. Keith shares tips on how to analyze this tournament and considers players who perform well in pro-am events and desert conditions. They also delve into betting odds and potential up-and-coming players. Trends, potential surprises, and early predictions for Augusta are also covered in the episode.
00:00 Introduction to the 2024 PGA Tour Season
00:47 Breaking Down the American Express Event
01:02 Understanding the Format of the Tournament
02:23 Analyzing the Impact of the Golf Courses
03:35 Outright Odds for the American Express
04:45 Potential Value Picks for the Tournament
05:16 Early Season Trends and Predictions
07:00 Names to Follow in the Finishing Positions
08:17 Rumors and Speculations in the Golf World
09:16 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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It is the early portion of the 2024 PGA Tour season this week is event number three the second full field event of the PGA Tour campaign in 2024 we welcome you back to a Wednesday live right here on the early line it’s Ben it’s Donnie and
Joining us as the man in the middle it is Keith Stewart helping us to break down the American Express out in L California where Keith one of my favorite things about the early portion of the PGA Tour season it starts in Hawaii we go to California next for us
Maybe in the northeast or those in the midwest that have been enduring the bitter cold of the last two weeks it’s nice to look out to places that feature sunshine hey there’s no doubt about that and Palm Springs is definitely one of those places this is a wild week to have
At the American Express three golf courses 156 guys competing in a proam format with a three-day cut it’s just there’s a lot of strange things happening this week so let’s run it let’s get right into it yeah so Keith let’s start with that format they’re going to play on three different golf
Courses out in the desert it is a proam and as you mentioned a 54 hole cut event meaning everybody will play Until the End of Saturday how does the format impact your handicapping well I I think for sure I’m looking at guys that play well in the
Prams and there’s two of them in specific that I’ve targeted on the PGA tour one is here and the other one is at Pebble Beach I mean not everybody wants to run around with Bill Murray for six hours and play in these events move from Golf Course to golf course um they did
Get a great field and they have been getting a better and better field at the AMX but for years everyone knew it as the Bob Hope and it wasn’t the best field we’ve had a lot of long shots win here as a result um the golf course
Setup isn’t the most difficult so it’s tough to separate the lower tier PGA Tour players from the upper echelon guys and those guys like to win so John ROM winning last year is definitely a little bit of an anomaly when it comes down to it I mean six of the last 10 winners
Have been longer odds like greater than 66 to one so I I look at that and I also look at who plays well in the desert who’s good at the Shriners children’s open in Vegas and also who’s good where we’re going to see in a couple weeks at the wmo in
Scottdale Keith As We line up these golf courses as you said it is unique that they’re going to play three different golf courses here is one easier than the other one are some guys hoping to get a certain draw on which courses they’re going to play this weekend Donnie that’s a great question
And the fact of the matter is it seems like yes lint Country Club is one of the three we also have at PGA West the Nicholas tournament course and then we have PGA West the stadium course that’s designed by Pete Dy now lint country club we have seen over the years that
Everyone that starts there in round one it’s the easiest of the three they get off like a rabbit they get off to a head start and it’s proven that those guys are more successful at making the cut than the other two courses if they start
There first and I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that those guys are gonna the leader there is gonna go eight nine under par today or on Thursday so what you’re going to see is that if you get to litaa on on Friday or even on
Saturday the third day you’re really pressing yourself to try to catch it and make that top 65 in that cut so look for the guys at linta that start there on Thursday Keith as Donnie knows very well the motto of the weekend is going very
Very low so as we look at the outright odds for the American Express you mentioned in the past not the strongest fields on tour this week though world number one Scotty Sheffer is playing out in the desert and he is the favorite to win this tournament outright at plus500
$4 in front of Patrick Klay Xander Schley at 11 to1 sunj M 20 to1 and Justin Thomas rounds out the top five at a 22 to1 price you see Scotty sheffler world number one with a really short number Keith is there still value at looking at the very top of the odds
Board I I just don’t see it guys those top three that the odds makers are obviously favoring you’re looking at kentley Xander and of course the number one man there Scotty um the top 10 last year all including Rah they averaged 30 birdies over the course of 72
I just don’t see Scotty making that many putts and at 5 to one or five and a half to one there is no value there if you want to take him at a top five and then try to live bet him later that would definitely be the way that I would
Approach it if he gets a little bit behind but for me I’m going to skip those top three you know one of the names you mentioned was Justin Thomas or JT but I see a lot more value with another JT in this field and that’s JT Postman he’s been delivering lately I
Mean you look at the Sentry finishes fifth that’s an Elite field then you go to the Sony finishes Sixth and he shoots the tournament low round at 61 I mean come on I mean the guy’s hot you need a putter this week he’s gained on approach
In nine of his last 10 events I like the postman to deliver you take a look at the way these tournaments set up here we’re still a couple weeks actually a couple months away from getting to Augusta but ear in this early swing has anybody caught your attention here that maybe coming into
This golf season you weren’t anticipating that’s playing very well and say you know what Donnie this might be one of those golfers to watch out for not just in this tournament but maybe down the line well it’s interesting I mean the best of the best have only played out in
Kaaloa so we’ve only seen them once the one theme that I’m really getting a gist of from hearing from the guys on tour talking to caty players Etc is how important these regular tour events and getting into them and playing very very well you look at the two winners we’ve
Had so far Chris Kirk to1 at the sentury Grayson Murray 400 to1 right there at the Sony these guys in order to get into these Signature Events are going to go and play really really aggressive you saw it on Sunday at the Sony and we’re going to see it again this weekend so
That’s the part early Trends in the season that’s what I’m looking at now we get pasted next week at the farmers we’re going to go three weeks in a row Donnie and I want to answer that question when we get to the Genesis because we’re going to go Pebble
Signature event then we’re going to go wmpo and then we’re GNA go Genesis tiger will be back the place will be lit up and at that point that’s when Rah had won three of the first six and everybody was like whoa this is the guy to watch
For Augusta and I think we’re going to see a similar patm I’m just not quite sure who that is yet of the big names using this early season swing for that sample size once we get to the bigger events later on in this PGA Tour season
So Keith when you look at the overall field some strong players in it some familiar names as well out in Palm Springs California the outright odds are all very long pric is pretty much outside of Scotty Sheffer but when you look at some names to follow this week
Out in linaa in the finishing positions top five top 10 top 20 top 40 who are some names we should key in on well when you look at the top 10 one of the guys that a lot of pundits are talking about to win I don’t see that
But it’s sunj m he’s definitely somebody I’m favoring right there at a top 10 price he’s going to be over two to one uh in the top 20 range I mean you can’t go wrong with Poston and Cole I’ve been playing these guys at top 20 week after
Week and they keep cashing I mean Eric Cole’s just unbelievable the guy plays every week he led the tour in birdies in 20123 so if you need birdies this week he’d be a good guy to call and then a little further down the board in that
Top 40 Zone how about an Adam hadwin always plays great in the desert of course another guy I’m looking at even as an outright and the odds on him are perfect at 120 to one that’s Nick Taylor yeah he’s the Canadian Open champ that won the hearts of an entire country last
Summer making that 75 foot Eagle putt but don’t forget he lost in Scottsdale and finished runner up to Ramen sheffler in the desert he was awesome last week at the Sony ball striking the putter so there’s a couple of guys placements down the boards in the 10 20 and 40 Zone hey
Keith by the way quick question we love rumors about golf here any thoughts here to Windam Clark joining the live golf tour here and heading over to John ROM’s team well I tell you what Donnie that’s another good question and you know where there’re smoke there’s fire it’s
Interesting to me that Liv starts in two weeks in mayakoba the first week in February remember last year a couple guys like Brendan steel Danny Lee they all they all announced in early February that they were leaving the PGA Tour Rah doesn’t officially have a team yet he
Has one player on his team Kieran Vincent who’s from the Asian tour but there’s a lot of talk circling around Caleb serret that the sophomore from Tennessee and Windam Clark imagine this Donnie if Liv gets Windam right let’s say John ROM calls you up and says hey
You want 100 million you just won the US Open you want to play with me at Liv right Liv would then own three of the four major winners from last year who could have ever thought that that rumor would take place and we’re close to it ke Stewart we appreciate the time
More on the early line up next
