he “Sheldon Says” season total sits at 112-106-6 ATS overall. The Score’s Lead Betting Analyst Matt Russell is back to help break down each and every match up on the NFL Schedule from Thursday Night’s match up between the Saints and Rams, to the Ravens and Niners on Christmas Night. As always, Sheldon makes a pick and then Matt comes in with the information and education on where the line is, was and where it could be heading into kickoff. Sometimes Matt gets Sheldon to change his pick and other times Sheldon foolishly doesn’t listen. Hope you enjoy and take a look below to skip ahead to the game of your choice.
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TNF
Saints @ Rams 2:30
Saturday
Bengals @ Steelers 7:50
Bills @ Chargers 18:50
Sunday
Cowboys @ Dolphins 29:09
Browns @ Texans 37:57
Lions @ Vikings 43:08
Jags @ Bucs 49:04
Colts @ Falcons 57:16
Seahawks @ Titans 1:02:17
Commanders @ Jets 1:09:10
Packers @ Panthers 1:15:12
Cardinals @ Bears 1:18:54
Patriots @ Broncos 1:21:18
Christmas Day (Monday)
Raiders @ Chiefs 1:25:33
Giants @ Eagles 1:30:16
Ravens @ Niners 1:37:00
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This is the clutch pick sports betting podcast week 16 NFL picks my name is Sheldon Alexander and I’m joined by the scores lead betting analyst Mr Matt Russell how are you doing my dude how are you feeling on this fine you know we’re we’re heading into week 16 I can’t
Believe it we’re almost here yeah I should really start Christmas shopping at some point here soon they look up and week 16 means means Christmas is around the corner so gotta get on some stuff here this is a mess man week 16 we’re getting into that you know
Cluster bleep uh portion of the program so this should be an interesting podcast uh on a Wednesday morning trying to figure out four or five days ahead of time who’s supposed to play what are we supposed to expect from said team are Mark the markets adjusting to last week
Like what does that all mean what are we supposed to believe out of it I mean let’s just get into it man like this is this is just this is a mess there’s a lot going on and we’ll get into the particulars in the SEC but I can never
Be accused of not being upfront with what’s going on with the picks as mentioned every week I give what my picks are last week not so good oh no 510 and one last week bringing the season total to 112 106 and six on the season now obviously
Once we get into the games we’ll be able to break down exactly what happened last week which was you know just hilarious in some instances in other instances I just should have listened to Matt as always because you know what for the people that might be new to this the podcast
I feel like an explanation of what we do here is needed at times and what we do here is I will give a pick for each and every game and then Matt comes in with the information and education on where the line is where it was or it could be
Heading into kickoff and hopefully we come out on the other end with a better idea of what I’m doing that’s the goal we’re going to get back to profit here by the end of the season of this pod so here we go as we begin as we do each and
Every week on Thursday Night Football I don’t know why I said that so dramatic is if I liked it I thought that like the Sunday Prime Time music was gonna pop up like anyway I like it I like it um we are starting on Thursday Night Football
As mentioned with the Saints at the Rams Rams at home favored by four point points the Saints injured your man’s tommmy DeVito before mocking him not before mocking him pardon me as they beat the Giants and I still don’t really buy the Saints team as an operation like just as a whole don’t
Really know what I’m seeing there so give me the Rams just off that point alone I feel like the Rams are you know the Saints don’t really play well or as well on the road but I also feel like the Rams are a squad where especially since Williams been has been back the
Running game they kind of have an identity know they’re doing and then of course Cooper cup my guy puka doing work Stafford’s healthy all that fun stuff I know I shouldn’t really be laying Four Points that’s a tough spot to be I don’t really like it but the job here is for
Me to make picks and I’m going to make the pick and I hope you will not talk me out of this one but I’m at minus four with the Rams Yeah you mentioned the job is to make picks right and so you know to let everybody behind the curtain
Right it’s Wednesday morning which you know there one thing when it’s Wednesday morning in like week one that’s fine we’ve had all summer it’s another thing when it’s week one or week 18 and it’s Wednesday morning it’s another situation where it’s week 16 and you know a lot of
Times we’ll talk about the Monday night game where it’s like listen it’s four five days away this this past Monday night game we had quarterback injuries uh issues that were weren’t really settled right up until like honest five minutes before kickoff essentially right and so we talk like okay and you know I
Plug this my stuff over at the score and I say okay just you know read my article about the game then like I’ll have sort of a more concrete view of the game even though this isn’t a Monday night game this is a th Thursday night game this is
Happening literally tomorrow I gotta kind of play that card here I have to dig in deeper into this I haven’t written my wrote My article yet uh for the Thursday night game and so like don’t hold me to this necessarily um because I still I still have to do that
I I would say this just looking at the Saints you know obviously their recent opponents it’s like you mentioned obviously the Giants the Panthers at home scenarios where we don’t want to get involved in the Saints um necessarily we’re not dying to lay points with the Saints right we did two
Weeks ago we faded them last week we end up going s of one in one um you know a staple record a 500 record of you know uh betting in general where you’re going to end up kind of losing the juice there um now they go on the and they play a
Pretty good team and you know what we have to sort of evaluate here is like how good the Rams actually are and the Rams are kind of a tricky team to evaluate too because honestly they haven’t played much recently outside of that trip to Baltimore and that’s the
One that might be the game that you kind of anchor to as far as what the quality of the Rams actually is you mentioned Kiren Williams being like honestly maybe the second best running back in the league based on the fact that he’s like I think he’s like fourth in in in rush
Yards and he missed like four or five games this season so listen I’m loathed to bet on Derek Carr in theory betting him as an underdog is you know a little bit more of a palatable situation but at minus four against you know team in the Rams
That is pretty good you know I’m probably going to be ending up leaning that direction uh this is a more interesting game certainly than last week’s game and than some of these other games that we’ve seen where if you play around with ESPN’s you know playoff machine there there’s a lot of scenarios
That are very reasonable scenarios where if this game was being played in week 18 this would be winner gets in losers Out and because it happens in week 16 we don’t sort of consider it that like that interesting right like this would be a potential like Sunday night last game of
The season type situation you know all all for all the marbles because every time you toggle back and forth you click those logos on the on the playoff machine and you click on the Saints logo and they show up as like the six seed then you click on the Rams and then the
Saints go away and it turns into a Rams logo right that’s what we’re that’s what we’re talking about here with the game so uh and for me personally on sort of from a Futures betting perspective you know I have some saints to miss the playoffs here so I’ll already be kind of
Like hoping that the Rams win this game anyway uh it’s just a matter of minus four being a number that I’m not like super pumped to lay just you know at this point yeah so we’ll deeper into it we’ll obviously have some props and
Stuff for the game but uh for me I you know the lean is certainly the Rams here yeah I’m definitely liking just liking the the Rams I mentioned the organization we’re talking about McVey versus what’s the dude’s name the coach of the Saints why am I drawing a blank
Dennis Allen I know you’re a big Dennis Allen I’m a huge Dennis Allen guy yeah absolutely so you know Dennis all let’s go yeah I like I like making institutional bets at certain points as I like to call them um we move on to Saturday and Saturday games I mean last
Week was just a Gong Show for me I think I did not get any of the Saturday games right last week if I if I’m uh going back through the archives here but new week New Opportunities unfortunately we got the Steelers at home as two and a half Point favorites
And I don’t like that against anybody yeah cuz they’re not sh you did it again remember last week you had the the wrong side here as far as how did I how how how what what did I do here it’s Bengals two and a half I feel like this is a bit
At this point where you’re like trying to catch me or like orever I think you know two and a half right now we need some comic relief you know and so like my goal here is just to have some comic relief between the two of us where it’s
Like hey Wakka waka waka you know something like that I don’t know is that Comon relief yeah it’s a fuzzy bear situation so here’s the thing though right Bengals Bengals on the road favored in Pittsburgh yeah at two and a half points doesn’t make than Pitt laying points right I mean does that
Make more sense no this neither way does this make sense to me cuz the Bengals as two and a half Point Road favorites in Pittsburgh Joe burrow is not walking through that door Jamar Chase is not walking through that door yeah your man’s Jake Browning now two and a half
Point favorites like if if my guy Mike Tomlin is going to take something personally and do his whole rah rah Mike Tomlin bit which appears to be the only only thing that kind of works for them the only thing that people rely on their handicaps of these games Bas for sure so
I look at this game and I would be on the Steelers plus two and a half give me the points here and the the strange thing about this game is watching the Bengals last week I’d love to get your your take on that game because that was
A long show your man’s Browning was putting in work late at least early on not too not too good and then realized hey I I got to just throw it up to T Higgin and that worked that worked well so heading into this week and that might
Be your top weapon here well it is his top weapon um what do you make of this game going forward as I correct the line here as it is Bengals favored by two and a half and I am on the Steelers plus two and a half please talk me out of taking
Mike Tomlin here no I think that honestly I think it’s the only side you can take here uh you mentioned Jamar Chase and Joe burrow not walking through that door and obviously that’s relatively important I kind of think I say more important because I mean we’re talking about two
Like All Pro Caliber players but you know close to as important and what was frustrating about the game on Saturday and we can talk about that you know a little bit here is DJ reer out for the season for the Bengals right and I remember a couple years ago when he
Missed a playoff game it was like all anybody talked about you know there’s always the thing that that everybody talks about leading up to a a playoff game right there’s like an injury situation A circumstance and it’s like everybody just Echo Chambers over and over and over like this this is going to
Be isue this is going to be an issue and DJ reader was that thing and because he’s you know nose tackle like blocking it you know taking up all the blockers you know from a a defensive interior standpoint and he goes out of that game and the and the Vikings were just
Chewing up yards on the ground with uh with Chandler and then they kind of stopped doing that and it was driving me absolutely crazy because it’s just n football team just doing outthinking themselves because you know I think they made a might have stopped Chandler two
Or three times in a row and now you’re just putting it in the hands of Nick Mullins which is absolutely infuriating wait you’re you’re not a Nick Mullins guy no I am no no I was honestly okay so here’s the depressing part there was one you know there’s always one game that
Like you know we do the podcast on Wednesday I write all my stuff on Friday that by the time sort of Friday night Saturday morning rolls around there’s a game that I talk myself into um that I’ve been kind of you know that I was like H well I didn’t really you know
Certainly on Wednesday like we didn’t have enough information and that was that game because Justin Jefferson was like healthy and good to go and it was like okay like if he’s fine to play here Nick Mullins is gonna do a lot more you know Kurt Cousins is type stuff and like
Josh dos is really bad and you know this has to be a massive upgrade and the market you know sort of agreed so they you know took that number down from four and a half three and a half to three so you could bet three and a half and in
The con in the circum Millions contest it was three I was like honestly I kind of just think the Vikings win this game outright and so I and I needed a you know kind of needed a fifth pick for cameleons and so you know I added the
Vikings now was I wrong in all of that listen they got a set you know 14-point lead that that honestly should have been 20 points if Nick Mullins literally just falls down instead of tries some crazy bleep and we’ll talk about you know the Viking try some Jimmy
G stuff yeah like even like Jimmy G on like on you know hypers speed and even like the two Jordan Addison touchdowns those were a bad decision and B a bad throw that Addison that you know that Mullins got away with in the first place and then and then Addison made a great
Catch on the run like almost like kneecap for even ankle um level catch and so it’s just like man if the Bengals like yeah they pulled that out and they end up pushing that number in the contest and winning at plus three and a half but it was just sort of
Like they they should have lost to Nick at home to B and that was with Jamar Chase for like you know half that game and then obviously that we haven’t even got into the idea of like Jake Browning just sort of tossing it up and having I
Mean you mentioned it like T Higgins coming down with two different passes that really when the ball goes up in the air it’s one of those things where the camera pans over and you’re expecting there to be nobody over there except for the receiver like it’s such a crazy pass
That there had to have been a coverage breakdown and then you see it’s like oh no there’s two defensive backs like at the very least this ball is going to get knocked away and in neither situation you know one I think it was like a third and 15 type situation where the first
Down gets converted and of course the other one’s a just absolute backbreaking touchdown and again that’s before we even get into the idea of like Nick Mullins on a with the smallest guy on the team pushing him from behind on a uh you know on a Philly uh you know Philly
Tush push situation yeah so I just look at I go like well what are we getting excited about the Bengals for when like the Vikings did everything in their POS you know that they possibly could to lose that game and the answer to that is well like the Steelers are by and large
Dreadful and they’re going you know and and then of course the subsequent game is we had the Colts and we ended up to win that game and so you know all is well that sort of ended well with a one zero and one record on those first two
Games from a contest perspective and a two- and0 record from a betting standpoint but it’s like okay like I didn’t understand why the money was moving towards Mitch Tris on the road and so it’s like well how can you bet on Mitch trabis and the good news
This week is we’re not betting on Mitch trabis with the Steelers right yeah now the problem is we’re betting on Mason Rudolph but if all that Mason Rudolph has to do is by and large hand the ball off and the Steelers can have kind of the most success that they’ve had all
Season yeah and they can I don’t know knock those stupid Jake Browning passes down you know what I mean and like by the way Nick Mullin was like carving them up pretty significantly so maybe Rudolph can do just honestly half of that uh from a good standpoint and like
Just not have the backbreaking turnovers and yeah you do have the situation where from a record standpoint the Steelers are still alive for the playoffs they aren’t alive when you know you bust out the ESPN playoff machine because every you know every sort of reasonable permutation has them you know being left
Out of the playoffs and I think they’re to make the playoffs odds are like plus 300 or something like that but like they don’t know that and so this is that backs against the wall scenario that like if you were going to you know bet on the Mike Tomlin Voodoo you know I
Like Mitch trabis cancels out Mike Mike Tomlin Voodoo I don’t know that Mason Rudolph does and so you know they’re missing a couple of guys you know obviously KY got suspended for the rest of like time basically for that hit against Pitman and and Minka Fitzpatrick hurt himself but he hurt himself again
Which means you know which implies that the Steelers have been without him earlier this season which they have and listen the defense wasn’t great necessarily but again with Jamar Chase and kind of your best option as a you know from a Bengals offensive standpoint throwing jump balls to T Higgins it’s
Like that’s defendable you don’t need a Primo defense to be able to necessarily do that so you know this is all to say that I I’m in agreeance with you I’m waiting I haven’t bet it I C you know normally it’s like two and a half points
Let’s go to the teas like I don’t I think teasers I think you got to cancel teasers for the rest of the season because we don’t because honestly we don’t know like what the deal is with any of these teams so even scenarios where like plus eight and a half with
Steelers like that’s sounds good and it’s like yeah or I mean or they just don’t score and the Bengals win like 10 and nothing 177 or something like that but like I think the I think the the play here is I’m you know hoping maybe you know fingers crossed that we get a
Full three with this with this because you know again like who wants to bet on the Steelers at this point but that’s the difference between this week and last week because people wanted to bet on the Steelers the line fell to minus one know at the Colts with Mitch trabis
Like you know that’s ridiculous and so using that rating I can’t you know using that rating and I think what is a pretty stable now Bengals rating at you know as a below average team I can’t get to Bengals minus two and a half on the road I can’t unless you massively
Downgrade the Steelers and I just don’t you know you know as much as we’ve seen from the Steelers lately I still can’t I still can’t fathom downgrading them that significantly when you know the the voodoo is real right like the voodoo pops up it’ll get you I think it gets I
Think gets the Bengals this week yeah for sure totally just look at this game this is a Steelers at home win that they need to get let’s go we’ve seen this before time and again time and time again should reference you’re getting points let’s go you’re getting points of
Course I’m gonna take the points here against Jake Browning yeah getting points implies that like the Steelers rating we always talk about you know how far a team drops or where they are relative to average it implies that the Steelers are 31 out of 100 which is like
You know one of the worst teams in the league essentially right it’s like it’s above you know Panthers Patriots Etc and you know honestly like maybe they are as bad as the Panthers and the Patriots I mean they certainly lost to the Patriots you know what a week ago so you could
You you certainly make that case it’s just you know I think we’re going to get the best effort possible out of a Ste out of the Steelers team and you know again I can’t get to a number where this where the Bengals are favored here uh
We’ll see where we get to with these numbers here as the Buffalo Bills Saturday night are in La against of chargers and favored by 12 points and normally I start on the double digit Point saying I’ll take the double digit points and I need to talk myself out of
It in this instance though the wagons are circling the mafia is hype right the beef with buffalo in the past was a beat up on bad teams and when I look on the other side I still see a man’s East and stick and a team that gave up what 63 last week
The only thing I guess I’m worried about here as I lay the 12 points with the bills is am I supposed to be worried about a new coach bump with Easton stick uh yeah I think that’s I think that’s fair I think coach I’m asking a
Question I pose a question yeah it’s new coach slave up 63 points and got embarrassed you know in a standalone Prime Time national televised you know or streamed I guess uh Jame right and so what’s this has actually been kind of an interesting line because the um look
Ahead projections before the Bills beat the Cowboys and after the Chargers lost that game was bills minus 10 okay and I actually you know I look at it and I’m like that’s a little low and because my numbers came out to 10 and a half and so
You know but I didn’t do anything I’m like okay well let’s see what happens because you know as we talked about last week Dallas and buffalo was a better game to sort of watch in theory didn’t end up being that case than to have you know than to conceptually bet on right
Like I didn’t feel like there was necessarily a great side in that game so I didn’t have a side uh on that one so I wait and then it reopens after the Bills win again the Chargers had long since you know fired everybody in town and the line reopens 13 and a half
Widely and 14 in some places let’s go and I look at that and I go like well that’s too high right because of the circumstances that you just sort of said right like there’s just no way that the number is going to stay or it didn’t you
Know it certainly didn’t feel like there was a way that that was going to stay um but you know you wait and you hope and and the thing is is like the idea of hoping that you get to bed on the Chargers like is sort of anti you know
Antithetical to like any sort of like reason yeah so I didn’t bet it because I’m just like okay well if it’s still 13 and a half then I will bet that and then uh a you know widely sort of recognized popular tout Service uh gives out
Uh Chargers plus 13 and a half and when they give that out the line crashes or or you know goes up depending on you know what side that they’re on and they’re on the Chargers at plus 13 and a half unwilling to wait or see you know
Uh to see if 14 you know we get to 14 or anything like that and it crashes down to minus 10 and a half exactly where my projection was in the first place so I go okay 10 and a half like that’s just the number honestly at at a fair number
Like I would lean towards the bills with you as as well but we’re ticking back up because I you know I think people are probably thinking the same way so it’s funny how like we all sort of think the same way whether the game plays out I
Mean hell the Chargers could win this game the bills could win this game by four you know four touchdowns right there’s nothing to say that the point spread’s even going to come into play necessarily in this game but it is funny to see like okay like yeah 10 and a half
And I probably lean towards the bills and the line goes up to where you’ve got it now at 12 I think 11 and a half you know a little bit more widely available but 12 I think is is is in the mix so it’s like which do you which do
You you know you roll with the sort of value concept of like people you know seeing 13 and a half and seeing that that number is too high and obviously the only way you lose on that is if it ex you know lands exactly or if you lose
By following that I should say is if it lands exactly on 13 now you can lose you know they can lose on plus 13 and a half we could all lose on plus 13 and a half all you know by like I said the bills winning convincingly so you know you
Just look at it and you go okay like the bill you know all of it makes sense bills on a short week Chargers on a long week you watch you know you go back and you look at nobody’s ever going to rewatch that Chargers game at least from
A memory perspective you look at that Chargers game and like what was that fueled by fumble fumble fumble in the first half right and like yeah that’s just that’s that’s a sign of not being prepared right not being physically and mentally prepared like holding on to the
Football is a mental thing you you know you have to be able to you know secure the ball brace yourself for contact and just be unwilling to give the other team the ball right and like they weren’t unwilling to give the you know and like obviously the
E stick fumble it’s like okay he’s just not you know he doesn’t have the sort of the um the the capacity right now to play at a at a mid-season type speed but like some of the other fumbles were just like careless stuff the defense then sort of gets let down because they’re
You know it’s 21 nothing before they’ve even really had to do that much or you know they’re playing short fields and then like honestly things get just flat out wacky with stick throwing that interception on a screen pass where the Raiders DB like jumps it you
Know by a mile like it’s just you know what’s he supposed to do you know he’s running the play like you know you almost you have to tip your cap to the Raiders for being prepared for that so the point is is like okay yeah they got
Beat down you know really really badly but like honestly two weeks ago the ra the Ravens who I think everybody has at least slightly you know rated slightly better than the bills came in to LA and were about you know three three and a half Point favorites in that game
So the only real difference I should you know listen it’s it’s a big difference is Justin Herbert for East stick and Keenan Allen probably not playing again this season yeah those are two pretty big differences are those 10-point differences like you know I find it hard
To sort of get to a 10-point difference you know and it’s obviously it’s an important position it’s important combination but a 10-point difference and it’s not a 10-point difference where one team’s five-point favorite now they’re a fivepoint underdog where the difference is you know kind of between winning and losing the difference here
Is between winning winning comfortably and then winning by a ton in the NFL so like I don’t think you can bet on the bills here at anything kind of higher than 10 10 and a half just based on like I don’t know history everything we’ve
Ever seen in our lives like I think it’s I think the number is like 18 and three when a team gets blown out the way that the Chargers get blown out the next week against the spread 18 and three they’re covering you know you know obviously had
A like astronomical rate so I think this is just wait you know there’s going to be a lot of weit and sees here this one’s more weight about the number if this thing continues to creep up you know I’d like to at least get plus 13
Here so that if it lands on 13 that it pushes so that’s going to be the way that I play I’m going to wait wait wait and then bet the Chargers at the very end not some huge bet certainly not something I’m G to you know rest a
Contest play on but you know it’s this a numbers play right it’s you know the number should be about 10 and a half 11 you know worth mentioning that is with the Chargers getting rated like just absolutely terribly in the same way that they were rated that terribly before the
Raiders game you know down into the mid 20s you know this number has them as the worst team in the league and maybe that’s the case but after a change you know you’re going to have the attention of the players which you did not have last week and honestly like there is no
Kind of number that you can assign to that but it’s probably pretty huge because we saw that number get away the gain get away from the Chargers because they weren’t interested in playing that game against the Raiders last week yeah no totally understand where you’re coming from for sure almost have me here
Switching from the bills but I’m rolling with the mafia for one more week at – 12 here before we get to our next game step into 2024 with confidence thanks to manscaped where resolutions are met and hairs are neatly kept as a new year approaches why not make self-improvement
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Married to her this uh past year would be the highlight but let’s be honest here man it’s every week getting to talk to you about the NFL wow wow I I feel honored that’s a privilege here I feel honored about that so as we head into 2024 obviously the look is any New
Year’s resolutions man it’s it’s the same as it always is you know as your man coach single T once said I want winners we’re going to do what we always do man we’re going to go looking for winners in 2024 I love it that’s what we
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That’s 20% off off with free shipping at manscape.com and use the code pick 20 Happy New Year to your balls and now back to the rest of the show uh let’s keep it going here we got the Cowboys move on to Sunday’s action Cowboys who obviously just played the
Bills at the Dolphins as they continue a little uh AFC East Tour here for Dak and Company but the Dolphins are at home in favored by a point and a half uh this to me is funny because it’s like the two teams that folks have claimed all year
Long they beat up on bad teams and might not show up as well against the good teams but now they’re playing against each other yeah interesting stuff right Cowboys flopped in Buffalo last week and the Dolphins I mean yeah let’s let’s be honest here the Dolphins just put up a
Beatdown on the Jets they did what they do yeah they did what they do right this game though is interesting and I’m going to use another term here that I used earlier this is an Institutional bet that I’m making on the Miami Dolphins here and the reason for that is just the
Coaching right the coaching is the big thing here that I’m trusting in the dolphins that they can are able to take a little something from what the bills did running the ball against the Cowboys and see if they can do a little bit of that themselves against the Cowboys and
You know I’ll ride with my guy Mike McDaniels here in this one and take the Miami Dolphins minus a point and a half I think the Cowboys win this game and I think they win this game convincingly I don’t I’m you’re what you’re selling what anybody’s selling here with the
Dolphins against against good teams and you know you can say the same thing about the Cowboys and like listen like the cas is you know can be made you know they talk about their road record versus the home record and then it’s like it’s like yeah that’s how it works you know
What I mean teams play better at home than they do but everybody has to like you know listen I’m no Cowboys fan right but like I have eyes and ears I can see what everybody’s been doing to the Cowboys Dak Prescott like trying to find anybody other than jaak to win MVP and
Then of course when they go to Buffalo it was clearly going to be like a tough spot now it was going to be a tough spot for both teams just one happen to be playing at home you know again home field advantage means right and and so
They w’t you know the Cowboys were very proud of themselves for beating the Eagles and and felt pretty comfortable about their position in the league whereas the bills didn’t feel comfortable about the their position in the league because they shouldn’t because they have to win every single
Game like even winning that game right like again you go into the ESPN playoff machine you play around with that there are still a ton of scenarios where the bills if they drop one game don’t make the playoffs yeah and it’s like that’s the difference that it’s football and
You know same thing goes for hockey right you know desperation is a little harder to to you know sort of turn into results um in hockey but in the NFL you can turn desperation into results very easily and that’s what the bills did to the Cowboys and if that’s what’s creating
The the sort of concept where this Dolphins team should be favored against the Cowboys then I’m all for it because it’s a team that literally just lost to the Titans like less than two weeks ago and I’m supposed to be believing that given how banged up they were and
Because they shut out the Jets I mean listen Zack Wilson fumbles on the like two yard line his own two yard line early in that game you know again who knows how that that game ends up going otherwise but like okay Zack Wilson does Zack Wilson things the Dolphins get
Ahead they get the long you know they do the thing where they get the long pass it’s like yeah the Dolphins do what they do and they get that 17-point lead and from then it’s just kind of like Aaron Rogers shaking his head on the sidelines
Right it’s not like the Jets were gonna come back so are they gonna are they gonna be afforded that same sort of two-play and we’ve got ourselves a 17-point lead scenario this week can you rely on Tyreek Hill to play in this game and to make it through this game right
Like how like literally every game he comes he comes hobbling off right I think everybody thought he was going to play the pregame shows were all like look how great he looks and then all of a sudden he’s like he’s inactive and so like the Cowboys got
Kicked in the teeth last week I mean quite literally just like on the ground on the ground on the ground like you have to be more prepared for that and I realize part of that is you know they lost their nose tackle and we talk about DJ reader right they lost their version
Of DJ reader in the previous game against the Eagles but look at the Dolphins offensive line man like it’s just it’s beat up and like again we thought the Jets might be able to take advantage of that listen I don’t know what’s you know the deal is with regards to the Jets
Defense as far as like are they good are they not good but you know if Tua can’t you know Tu is getting pressured in this game like we’re gonna see the same Tua that has had issues against these good teams that were able to pressure him
Were able to sort of slow down the uh the Dolphins offense like you know even a team like the Titans was able to do that two weeks ago so I love the Cowboys this week I you know again this isn’t a cold weather scenario this isn’t again you know against a bruising team
Necessarily this is a team that they can score on right and so like they’re going to be able to go score for score with the with the dolphins they’re going to be the team feeling a little bit more desperate in this game and so like that’s where I think the difference is
Obviously just on paper these you know from a rating perspective these teams are pretty evenly matched honestly the Cowboys right up until this point and as I sort of inferred we rated as the better team like the Dolphins have kind of hit down to like a mid 60s you know
And that’s why they were down to you know minus seven and a half in that game against the Jets last week so yeah like this is honestly you know there’s a lot of like maybe humming and Han type things here the only thing that I’m waiting for isn’t about n you know
Uncertainty with regards to the line or anything like that it’s if Tyreek Hill you know is in and people you know that gets announced and people get excited about that and push this line up I don’t think we’re gonna get three necessarily but honestly it’s about a money line
Price for me can I get a plus 120 on the money line on the Cowboys like that’s what I’m waiting for honestly the line could flip to Cowboys minus one and a half them be the favorite I would I would nod I’d be like yep makes total
Sense to me and then I would still bet on the Cowboys so this is just me waiting to see what the best price I can get but it’s not going to stop me betting on the Cowboys the Cowboys are going to be in contest the Cowboys are
Yeah this is all Cowboys for me um I would just my hesitation with the Cowboys is just my relationship with the Cowboys and them me needing them to do stuff and I’m not saying that that is something that anyone else should worry about but that’s what I mean about like
What I’m more so talking about my own relationship with the Cowboys and you share that with everybody right like like that’s why people don’t want Dak to be you know and nobody’s G to come out and say like I don’t want because of you know watching Dak so frequently over the
Course of his entire career you know five six games on prime time every season and then and like you said like the disappointing playoff ends or whatever like none of that means anything like I’m sorry to tell people like this just none of it means anything
And like I’m sorry that the Cowboys lost the game again it sounds like I’m a Cowboys fan here like honestly don’t care at all about the Cowboys outside of the fact that like my job here is to like recognize value and see you know what people are saying how people are
Saying it and then sort of using that information and like that’s the that’s the circumstance people don’t like the Cowboys they are a polarizing team I get that and when you consume mainstream media and you hear like all the people trashing the Cowboys every single time
Like that’s going to seep into it and by the way like they haven’t won you know much in the playoffs if you know you know barely at all um but like this is a different team and so you know again like the Dolphins haven’t screwed up yet
In in sort of a significant way right we can obviously point to some of the games that they’ve lost this season and so people like you know everybody like do the Dolphins this Dolphins team Mike McDaniel is like everybody’s second favorite team because they’re exciting and we’re all rooting for Tua and
McDaniel is a very interesting charismatic character but it’s like yeah okay cool but like let’s go play these games on the football field field right and none of that stuff none of that like those feelings those emotions should come into betting and the Cowboys are the better team and this isn’t like a
Dolphins team that has some great home field advantage so I can’t build in you know three points of home field advantage which is what I would need to build in to make the Dolphins the favorite here no I hear you and I said I agree with you and you just got more
Flustered and went even hard on what you said no I want I’m dying for you I’m begging you to change the pick I’m begging you hilarious was like that was just amazing well listen man 5 10 and one and I’m looking I’m like n and seven and it’s just like this
Is the this is the show that’s what the show is this is what the show is I know what’s the the lebatard sound effect you don’t get the show um I just I just want you to have a good record man I just I hear you man I
Hear I want you to be profitable I hear you I want everybody to be profitable that’s all I want um yes so we keep things going here we got the Browns who are two and a half Point favorites on the road against the Texans in Houston here and uh I’m on
Houston at the plus two and a half Joe Joe flacko and the Browns continue to roll I get it uh somehow they pulled out that Victory last week with Joe Flaco balling that is a sentence I actually wrote down and just read out loud into a microphone yes the Texans also pulled
Out a win late in OT as they won a crazy game at the end as well um this one comes down to the Texans playing at home I think the Browns struggle a little bit more on the road even though you know you’d have to go back and look at who
Played QB when because there’s been a lot of different QBs there and I don’t know if we can still be talking about the Browns from a season outlook when Joe Flaco’s obviously given the a whole different look all of that to say I’m on Houston plus two and a half just because
More so because I’d want to take the points with these two teams more so that I’m so confident that Houston is gonna win this game and they’re better than the Browns yeah I mean the Case Keenum thing right that’s what this is this is coming
Down to Case Keenum yeah and if you had if you had uh you know obviously You’ done the same thing with like the Cincinnati Pittsburgh thing where the where the point spread gets you know flipped which I think was the tech game last week right um we’d all understand
Because this was Houston minus two and a half yesterday and then see the announcement about CJ SRA doesn’t look like he’s going to play because of the you know the lingering concussion which is scary now for the Texans going forward right definitely because it’s you know normally it’s like concussion
Protocol okay he’s probably out for a week and then like he should be fine that’s kind of been the sort of standard right and we’ve gotten a little weird with some cases where the guys have come back the very next week and you’re like oh okay apparently concussion protocols
Two days right like the the TJ watt um scenario from last week once you get past that first week right concussions are a sketchy like weird thing right like once you get past that first week and not being able to come back man gets a little bit dicey right and so yeah
Like we got Joe flacko and Case Keenum like straight out of you know 2014 type of a matchup here so I you know I get why this number has flipped over to two and a half I just I can never bet the Browns on the road
Browns on the road for me is you know it’s pretty much an auto fade because the defense the thing that we like most about the Browns you know is their defense at home and so you know the numbers fall apart so I just kind of you know just kind of
Popping the the number into uh in my sheet now based on the fact that the te the Texans were you know without Stroud last week what would the number be in this game just based off of that because I think we got a pretty stable rating for Cleveland as much as they keep
Winning these games like they are still kind of rated this like below average team this number would be as high as like Browns minus four now Case Keenum like the Texans got like just absolutely crushed from a rating perspective going into that game and they won that game
Outright so you have to give them a bit of a bump for that and so that’s where you go okay well they’re not going to be four-point home underdogs uh in this situation they’re going to be closer to two and a half and so that’s with a
Little bit of a bump here right the Texans are you know you always like to use the the hard numbers here Texans are a 30 out of a 100 with Case Keenum with this number sort of you know being you know associate maybe a little bit higher
Than that if you’re giving the Browns a particular bump for beating the the Bears last week but honestly if you watch that game right they’re down 10 points into the fourth quarter it’s like yeah I’m not you know congratulations to the Browns winning that game you know
But like the like the Vikings you know the week before an NFC North team on the road blows it so it’s like I’m not bumping up the Browns in this you know and so I still kind of think there’s value on Houston so maybe we get to
Three here you know I don’t know if it’s there’s going to be a more official announcement about stof playing and maybe this ticks up where we get a full like plus three that’s an you know guess what week 16 right like another scenario where we’re taking a wait and see
Approach you know with plus three um on on the Texans so you know wait wait and see try to get the plus three I think we do actually end up getting that um because of the injury report with the Browns obvious or with the Texans excuse
Me um so yeah not you know not all that exciting sitting around waiting on numbers but you know that’s that’s part of the deal here we got four or five days between the games there are there is going to be line movement and it would be hard for me to imagine that the
Line movement goes in the way of the Texans because you know prior to pulling that game off by the way last week speaking of 10 point you know 10 plus Point deficits they didn’t look all that great either so you know it’s this is this is the cards that we’re dealt here
With some of these games week 16 yeah here we are wrapping up the season and you know we got the Nick Mullins and Case Keenum and Joe flos and all that fun stuff but yes Houston plus two and a half as we move on to the Lions who are
Three and a half Point favorites in Minnesota against the aforementioned Vikings uh the Nicks Mullins experience was not a fun ride at all last week as mentioned earlier in the Pod they should have won they should have won but gu what Nick Mullins is not Jaylen Herz and
They cannot execute the tush push nearly as well as Jaylen Herz and the eagles they lose in OT meanwhile the Lions roll and it has people asking where has this Lions team been for the last few weeks right who knew who knew that was still a
Thing but now here we are and I don’t like it but the lions at three and a half Point favorites on the road like I don’t I don’t really like it but I need to know more about the Vikings and what experience I’d be signing myself up for
This week at the QB position yeah I mean you’re obviously set enough for the Nick Mullins experience which I mean given any like wait two seconds and like you’re going to get either like a really great play or catastrophic play and honestly that’s not what I want out of
My backup quarterback right I want Drew lock and I know that’s sort of a crazy thing to say but like I thought Drew lock was awesome on Monday night and like the the term awesome is you know has to relative this isn’t oh man he was
Slinging it all over the field like he was making great plays like no he actually the ask no that’s not the ask you’re just trying to not bleep it up right and Nick Mullins did everything he could to bleep that up in that game and so from a market perspective this game
Is like there’s a turf war going on right now and it’s every time this number goes to plus three and a half the Vikings get bet and every time the number goes to three which it has a couple of different times this week the Lions get that right so it it’s on
Honestly depending on like what price is is currently available and as of like Wednesday morning like the plus three and a half is sort of the more prevalent number so you’re you know you’re in line with a group that thinks that the Vikings plus three and a half is the
Right side in this game you know the funny thing is is like with the Vikings you know obviously it’s a play- to-play situation with regards to you know what to expect from them but like Detroit it’s a game to game situation when we talk about you know teams rating and we
Assign sort of an out number and that’s always the average of of what sort of expect but like we also have a range for that team right so if the uh Lions average is like 59 60 out of 100 their range is anywhere from 50 to 70 and
We’ve seen the 70 version of the Lions right like last week for example was the 70 version of the Lions and the week before that was the 50 version of the Lions so like we don’t often get that middle version of the Detroit Lions right I think we get sort of a slightly
Better than average version from you know the Lions isn’t better than their average and what that mean you know what that means is indoors being able to challenge the Vikings secondary where you know the Vikings you know have this defense where they’ve been blitzing a ton this season
And then sometimes they’ve taken that off to a degree but they Blitz a ton and you sort of Wonder like why are you blitzing the most in the league and I think we saw last week that the fact that the secondary has basically no ball skills yeah right and it’s like yeah if
We could just Blitz and like take the heat off of the secondary having to play deep balls down the field we will you know take our chances with hot routes and tackling and you know because you know every team has a has a has a skill
Set right and if the Viking skill set from their secondary is tackling then you’re going to keep everything underneath how do you keep everything underneath you Blitz and you force hot reads and and dump offs and you know screen passes and stuff like that right so you know can the Lions take advantage
Of that with their offensive line being as healthy as it’s been all season yeah this isn’t going Outdoors for Jared G right this is an indoors you know type matchup this is you know a Lions team that you know offensive line is super healthy their skill position
Guys are super healthy they can beat you in the short intermediate they can beat you going deep right Jameson Williams stretching the defense you know all of a sudden Josh Reynolds is like an actual productive receiver in in the NFL so you know again not knowing what I’m going to
Get or honestly not any confidence in Nick Mullins and what we’re going to get on that side has me thinking that I can rely more on the lions in this game and I know it’s a road game and usually something that we’d rather sort of play
Against here um just in general in the NFL at three and a half like no I’m not going to just like line up to bet the three and a half I’m GNA wait and see if the three comes back so again week 16 on a Wednesday guess what we’re doing we’re
Going to take a wait and see approach we’re going to grab the lions at minus three whenever we can get it and you know when it comes to a wait and see approach didn’t end up mattering you know almost almost mattered on Monday night but the whole premise for Monday
Night’s game between Seattle and Philadelphia was you got to know who the quarterbacks are in the matchup so wait and see so you know I write an article on Monday morning and you know we’re still 12 hours away from knowing who the quarterbacks are that game ended up
Closing there was some plus sixes available but widely available plus five and a half with the Philly with the Eagles up four in that game if you have five you’re sitting pretty you don’t care what happens in that last drive right but if you have three and a half
Like you needed a a a Drew block you know excellent throw so like this stuff matters so don’t just listen to this and be like okay minus three and a half like I’m in you know you don’t have to bet the game by the way and if we never get
Minus three with Detroit like that’s fine you can bet it live maybe that you know that sort of becomes an option listen there could be some good Nick Mullins moments early especially in the script right I think that their best Drive last week was with you know within
The script I think they scored a touchdown on their first drive you know take a wait and see approach right up in right up through the first quarter if if you have to in this game because the longer the game is going to go the worse Nick Mullins is going to
Get yes the Nick Mullins experience don’t you dare miss it uh we keep it moving here from Detroit to me being on the Jags which is a tough go for sure but I will explain Trevor Lawrence you know I feel like T Trevor Lawrence gets a bit of a pass from the greater
Football world and I don’t really understand why because when you really lock in and watch them and especially on Monday night that was a bad watch watch bad clock management bad turnovers just not good throws downright at certain moments horrible look for him in the
Jags but you know I I’ll try and think maybe that was the Ravens D you know maybe that’s a bit of the Ravens defense I don’t know bottom line is tough look last week for the Jags now they head into Tampa Bay and Tampa Bay as I mentioned it’s a team that have
Struggled with this whole season Baker’s balling when I’m rolling with them he’s not balling or sorry he’s balling when I’m not rolling with them right and balling when I’m against them uh somehow they’re seven and seven can’t say I saw that coming this season but you know
What we did talk about it earlier on on this pod uh I’m on Jacksonville plus one here and the reason being is just because I feel like the Jags need this dub as their division things are getting a little spicy here in their division and I think they need this
Win yeah I mean great like could have used it last week could have used it the week before right like we’re into that part of the Season you know if you must win you must not be very good and honestly well first of all we have to
Talk about the idea about this line right and the idea of Trevor Lawrence potentially not playing in this game right so you can talk about Trevor Lawrence and it’s like yeah okay but what if we get CJ Beth protocol well if CJ be’s involved I’m not involved in the
JS I’m saying right now on this pod so people can know that whatever the line is and CJ bethard is involved I’m not on the Jags right and so okay so how do we play this market and so we got what luckily we have sort of an idea of what
The Market’s going to do with the idea of CJ bethard playing in this game because we had that scenario two weeks ago you know leading up to the game against Cleveland and against Cleveland Beth was you know we thought bethard might come in and then like he
Didn’t and and a beat up Trevor Lawrence you know lack of Mobility type of thing right we talked about this going into last game like you know what are we supposed to get out of the Jags given where their rating finished even with Lawrence in that game and their rating
With Lawrence in that game was a 40 out of a 100 because it was like w he’s gonna be compromised you know this is a really bad spot for Jacksonville to come in and play if CJ Beth had played in that game it would be lower than 40 right it would
Be probably something in the mid to low 30s and that was out coming off of just one loss where that game was competitive and they probably maybe win that you know the game against the Bengals if Lawrence doesn’t get hurt in the fourth quarter what about this version of the J
The Jags that we’ve seen over these last three weeks that would make you even think it would be as high as the mid-30s with CJ bethard right like wouldn’t it have to be kind of in the low 30s with CJ bethard so let’s put them in as like
A 32 out of a 100 right let’s downgrade them off of two losses and with CJ bethard in like what would the point spread be point spread would be Tampa Bay minus 4.2 so somewhere between minus 4 and four and a half and that’s before upgrading the Buccaneers for Waltzing
Into Green Bay last night or last week excuse me and looking awesome so we might even have sort of a higher number so I would lean to four and a half as as my CJ bethard projected number in this game that’s pretty that’s considerably different than essentially a pick them
Right now right so you can bet the you can bet the bucks right now if CJ Beth plays you’re get all kinds of of closing line value well let’s say at Trevor Lawrence place right well I don’t know that we can rate them as high as we had
Them last week or when I say we I mean the market not me specifically because I was on you know the Ravens because I’m not buying the Jaguars rating as it is right now so that number ended up closing admittedly uh Baltimore minus four so we got to a point where the
Closing number kind of put Jacksonville around 53 out of a 100 which at this point like that’s a pretty fair number right like you’re slightly AB you know honestly they sure they’re leading the division or I guess they’re now tied for the leading the division but they’ve led
The division all season long and so you have to give them some credit for that but like every time they’ve tried to have a step up in weight class like it’s gone badly so like 53 out of 100 seems like a pretty fair number so if we pop
53 out of 100 into the rating machine we get Jags minus one and a half on the road against Tampa again that’s before upgrading Tampa a little bit for just honestly just playing really good football lately yeah so we’ll pop them up a little bit and that’s how we get to
Basically a pick them in this game so I think you bet this now at Tampa minus one and a minus one knowing that honestly there isn’t a difference really between minus one and plus one right the only difference is if this ends up in a tie and of course because I mentioned
That it probably end as a tie but like Tampa needs this game just as much as the Jags do from a quotequote motivational standpoint they’re by far there are the odds on favor to win the division right now and they’re just playing better football so why wouldn’t
You want Tampa at a pick him when kind of the worst case scenario I think now listen Maybe Trevor Lawrence gets a clean bill of health and the line goes to like I don’t know two and a half sure that doesn’t really do all that much
Maybe it goes to three at which point honestly I’m betting I’m betting the Buccaneers at plus three again on top of what I’m already going to have but right now you can get pick him here with the essentially pick him here with the with the Bucks and it might end up closing
Minus four minus four and a half because like yeah the concussion protocol again we don’t know right and the idea that like Sunday night game he finishes that game and then Monday they put him into you know protocol and the sort of after you know there’s a full sort of day of
After effect where it wasn’t off of like a big hit and we’re not even really sure like what the effects were this is like how you feeling Trevor and it’s like bad that’s his answer on Monday whereas like a guy can get absolutely leveled on Sunday
They take him out of the game he doesn’t come back in they put him in concussion protocol he can come back on Monday and be like actually I feel pretty good like you know kind of dodged a bullet like it you know it’s there’s these two different scenarios here right and so in
This scenario like he’s already admitted that like he is not feeling well and so I just don’t see there you know how betting on the Buccaneers here right now is necessarily all that bad of idea when I think the worst case scenario is you bet on the bucks at minus one Lawrence
Plays the line moves to like maybe you know again like I said best case scenario or most likely scenario is like Jags minus one and a half minus two okay like I don’t really care that I’ve lost that value necessarily when the alternative is getting a pick them on a
Number that could be as high as four or four you know or at least I think should be four or four and a half I don’t know that would actually go that high so I think there’s value coming and going here and the and any loss in value isn’t
As significant as the gain in value if CJ bethard ends up playing in this game because honestly right now I think the Buccaneers are the better team so give me the Bucks give me you know again watch the Jags defense like is this is this a defense that I think is going to
Fluster Baker Mayfield via pressure no via you know secondary play you know you talk you saw Chris colins were talking about how good the the backup guys for the Jags secondary was but like the reality is they are backup right like they have these guys missing that were
Intended to be starters and like that’s cool for your depth later on but that’s going to be problematic when you have guys like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had a nice game last week and by the way Rashad white is like sort of sneaky all of a sudden awesome from a running back
Position as a young like athletic guy and anybody following this podcast for the last two years like we’ve been begging for more Rashad white and less Leonard forette we’re finally getting that this season and guess what the Bucks are probably going to end up winning their division now honestly I
Would say because of it yeah no uh pick has been changed Tampa Bay minus one this for me also on top of what you said I just you know it’s not difficult to talk into what we think could be the better team at home and the value of who
Could be the QB for Tampa for not Tampa Bay for the Jags interesting stuff there for sure with the onepoint spread basically a pium we head to another pickham game involving the Colts at the f cones and this one is super interesting to me because uh we look at it and I
Think did Ritter get benched again is this where we’re we’re at here with the Atlanta Falcons like the the season for them has just been with Mr Arthur Smith and Ritter and how do they use their weapons and all this fun stuff it’s been a weird
Season yet they are right there with the aforementioned bucks in that very crappy division um an amazing lot as you called last week the Falcons losing to the Panthers now the Falcons head back home H getting in there and hopefully you lose a couple of the well I mean the Big
Red Zone turnover from your man’s dead and Ritter but either way you know the Colts are playing really nice as well this is a tough one I’m starting here on the Falcons but again in these mid-off I’m not really confident in either of these teams yeah so yeah here we are
Atlanta minus one yeah yeah it’s funny so uh you know listen a lot of people anoint themselves like the prince of props and the total you know king or whatever all this BS I I honestly I think I’m the best reverse jinxer in in the world right I don’t I
Don’t I don’t overuse it but when I do like you know you’re in trouble and I threw out a tweet last week about desen rer playing a perfect clean game on the road in the rain yeah and cuz desperate times are calling for desperate me measures as we needed the uh the
Panthers to cover desperately especially after the Vikings Fiasco of the day before and uh it sure enough almost immediately you know 10 15 minutes later I think it was he throws that interception and of course you still need Bryce young to literally do anything and that’s I think the problem
With you know the Panthers kind of going forward but when it comes to the Falcons here like I this line was minus one and a half for the Colts and I looked at it and I was like well that can’t be correct because we just had the Colts as
Minus one favorites at home to Pittsburgh and you can’t tell me that you know Pittsburgh is necessarily better than than the Falcons as much as like listen I have never like you know we talk about every week I’ve never liked the Falcons you occasionally bet on them obviously the one thing with the
Falcons is you have to be very unlike that that Tampa Jacksonville game like you have to be very aware of whether you’re getting one point or not getting one point because all these game with the Falcons turn into like a 1716 and somebody’s trying to go for a two or a
Field goal or something like that right it’s like you know nobody ever gets or gives three points essentially with the Falcons which again one of the reasons why we like the Panthers last week getting a full three points uh against them so at plus one and a half I just
Look at it go like that that I’m sorry that can’t be right and is you know I guess we’re giving the Colts like all kinds of credit for being Mitch trabis at home but like think about that sentence like that sentence doesn’t really make any sense and then
Sure enough I wake up here Wednesday morning and the the favorite has flipped to Atlanta minus one right so like the good news is is like I know what I’m doing as far as like what a line should be a bad news is I didn’t bet the
Falcons because like I’m not all I’m not into Taylor hinei like as like oh sick like they’ve gone from Ritter to Taylor hinei like get me in on that train I’m not even I’m not saying it’s bad I’m just saying like I’m not excited about
It so like yeah the Falon are the are the side for me if I had to make a bet on this but like I don’t want to bet on Arthur Smith I’ve never really wanted to bet on Arthur Smith this season like I rather betet on Shane Sten it’s an
Indoor game this isn’t a scenario where it’s going to be like particularly uncomfortable for the Colts offense where the uncomfort or discomfort kind of comes in is no Michael Pitman you know maybe you know might who knows whether we’re getting Jonathan Taylor back a Zach Moss back like what
Combination of those two guys are in and is that even going to matter because the Colts the ball fine with their like third and fourth string guys against Pittsburgh so I mean I know you’ve got to make a pick here and I’m not going to necessarily talk you out of Atlanta
Based on the market stuff that I just talked about but like I don’t really want anything to do with this game no I hear you so you know like it’s like Atlanta I guess but like I don’t know that’s putting a lot of faith in the Falcons who you know again we talked
About last week are pretty banged up um on the offens offensive and defensive line and honestly you know Win Lose or Draw like I can’t take anything from that rain Fiasco last week like that was a janky messed up you know weather game and that’s not what we’re going to get
This week and that’s probably good for the Falcons so you know what I mean I know I’m saying like multiple things here good for the Colts good for the Falcons I think there’s maybe slightly more good for the Falcons in this game and I think that’s why they they’re the
Slight favorite right now which is what I would have made them all along nope totally got you totally with you indeed we move on to the Seahawks who are three-point favorites in Tennessee against the Titans huge win for Drew lock and on Monday night football against the Eagles but now they go on
The road and the ask is for them to win by more than three that’s a tough spot for me to be taking here and you know Tennessee been in this position before I’m taking Tennessee as a home dog getting a field goal kind of like that
Spot the Seahawks two and five on the road this season not too good not sure if Gino’s going to be back are we still getting Drew lock not really sure on that as well but overall Tennessee plus the points that’s where I’m going to be living yeah I don’t disagree with that
It’s I again it’s funny right because you we go into that game on Sat on Monday and they’re like all is it gonna be Drew lock is gonna be Gino Smith oh God like there’s some sort of massive difference between the two and the reality is I don’t think there is mass
Yeah I I do not think I don’t know that there was a difference a year and a half ago when Gino Smith like edged him out in in uh in training camp and got the started job I don’t know that there was a difference between the two when goino
Smith played really well uh or at least P you know perceptively well in the first 10 games of that season I don’t think there was much of a difference when goino Smith didn’t play very well in the back half of last season yeah I don’t think there’s a difference between
Gino Smith and and Drew lock you know this season like I said I thought he played really well Underdog role what do you want to do you don’t want to turn the ball over look at all these guys who come in and we could go and name 17 to
20 quarterbacks who would not have won that game would not have even been inom in like competitive in that game who are starting in the NFL this week than Drew lock was in that game because he didn’t throw any interceptions they didn’t ask him to throw deep the whole point of you
Know and this is worthwhile when it comes to handicapping especially backup quarterbacks and what our expectations are with regards to backup quarterbacks can they keep the game close because the whole idea is to keep you know here coaches talk about keep the game close get us to the fourth
Quarter get us honestly one drive at the end of the game when fourth down isn’t a punting situation it’s a get to go for it situation and so you get to go from needing 3.4 yards per play to just 2.51 yards yards per play right which
Like I know that doesn’t sound like much but you know you can frame it this way right three plays to get 10 yards or four plays to get 10 yards what’s easier especially when a team is you know playing not necessarily A prevent defense NE necessarily but they’re
Willing to allow you know things that are you know they’re playing back essentially yeah willing allow to allow stuff in front of them and so like that’s what the Seahawks did they did just enough and as much as I hate Pete Carol because he everything you can time
You can screw up in a in a small way whether it’s timeout um not taking a 10-second runoff when you’re about to have a third 14 at the end of the first half just willfully giving the Eagles the ball back with 10 more seconds than they should have like it’s this tiny
Stuff that like doesn’t even get talked about on the broadcast where like if you’re paying close attention you’re like God like these things are going to add up to you but the point is is like they’re not the underdog this time around but the issue for me is is Ryan
Tanah Hill gonna play in this game and be the underdog that Drew lock was last week not turn the ball over right use his running game not being asked to throw the ball deep using the one or two receivers that he has that can make plays in this case DeAndre Hopkins in
The sort of DK meaf role or is it going to be Malik Willis because that seems to be sort of the murmur that are coming out of Tennessee that it’s going because why would you play Ryan tanah Hill at this point because you know Derrick Henry one of
The quotes from you know after the game last week obviously he said he’s like you know we kind of and we talked about this we sort it was nice that he framed it this way he’s like we kind of talked ourselves in to like maybe if we run the
Table we can squeak into the playoffs and he’s like but now it sort of feels like you know it’s over and that’s like a pretty telling thing when you’re trying to like read you know how a team feels coming down the stretch yeah so if if it’s kind of over which last year
You’ll recall like it wasn’t over they had you know they they they tanah went out obviously they didn’t have LeBus yet and you know but they had Malik Willis and they’re like okay like we can still make the playoffs right they could have made the playoffs coming down to that
Very last game against the Jags but Malik Willis you know they end up going to Josh dos because Malik Willis wasn’t good enough do I think we Malik Willis is all of a sudden going to be good enough in this game I do not right and so that’s where I think this number
Comes in because I look at it you know there’s one or two ways you look at it does Seattle get a massive upgrade because Drew lock isn’t any different than Gino Smith and they get an upgrade to about the league average team that that we have talked about the Seahawks
Being all season long right which is quite literally 50 out of a 100 okay if we go to that we we bump them all the way back because you know previously we had them getting downgraded because of Drew lock because they closed 15 and a half in San Francisco and they Clos you
Know five and a half six at home against Phil Philadelphia well like those are both incorrect numbers right like Seattle ended up covering that big number against San Francisco and of course they end up covering and winning out right last week so you change that number you put them right back to even
You say you know what Drew lock Gino Smith who cares don’t care who plays they’re about the same like what what’s the number that you kind of come up with and you come up with about 3.4 right and so that’s where this number comes from but I haven’t done
Anything to the Titans yet to reflect the fact that I don’t think that Malik Willis is any good so I think this is a fair kind of number of if Ryan tanah Hill plays but now that we’re creeping upwards here to you know up from M by
The way it’s open minus two and a half we’ve crept up to minus three I think we can go a little bit further minus three and a half minus four potentially with Malik Willis and moreover like I don’t know that there’s a number that I don’t
Want to fade Malik Willis with at this point right and the Titans defense and the fact that they allowed what they did to Case Keenum in that fourth quarter right it’s like again this a really bad spot for Seattle you know can’t you know I can’t deny that a short week on the
Road hump you know jump and hug game right where we all of a sudden like like Drew lock I can’t believe I you know I’ve come to that conclusion in my life where I’m praising Drew lock both as a person as a and as a football player but
Like that’s that’s where we are so like three I think is just a really fair number that could go either way it’s more just like do you want to have a ticket on the Titans going all right Malik Willis like let’s do this thing with a team that is already sort of you
Know sort of publicly said at least they you know their leader on off offense Derek um uh you know Derrick Henry and he said like oh yeah it kind of feels over like I don’t want that team I don’t want my I don’t want the team that has
Admitted that it’s over no totally understand where you’re coming from here pick has been changed Seattle minus three on the road we continue on with the commanders on the road in New York against the Jets Jets laying three points and it’s just funny to see that
As the Jets laying three points cuz like wait is Aaron Rogers coming back no we got I don’t know on the other side we got is that jacobe Brett’s music I heard last week for the commanders like what is happening here I say all that to say
Somehow I wrote that I’m on jacobe brette and the commanders at plus three just because I’m looking at this and thinking I don’t know what to make of the Jets at this point do the Jets know what to make of the Jets at this point you know you like the quarterback
Situation couldn’t be like for as in samee as a quarterback situation is in the entire NFL right the Jets are still like the weirdest hang ever because there’s so much going on so much uncertainty who who wants to play who’s healthy enough to play it’s just a tough
Spot for sure um reluctantly I’m on the commander plus three here because you’re giving me points I’ll take the points in this one well if I if I thought we were getting jacobe brassette I could be talked into Washington because of what we saw obviously at the end of that game where
I mean Ron Rivera yeah we what are we doing man like he doesn’t go for two he’s in Cancun mode man well he’s not even like Cancun mode ever implies that there was a mode where he wasn’t where he was like locked in and had it figured out right
Like oh yeah you know they’ve given up because no he’s just clueless four at least four times maybe five times he’s had a situation this season where he was supposed to go for two and he didn’t and it happened again last week and then of course they they
Get the P blocked anyway so they end up going they were down eight points regardless and it was just so perfect because it was like you know the p is not a guaranteed one point right and it’s like and it had to literally be jammed right in his face that the Pat is
Not a guaranteed one point is not a 100% you know probability that team kicks uh and gets the extra point which is the fundamental argument for like why you wouldn’t NE you know well the first argument is to go for it is that like overtime doesn’t mean you win the game
Overtime means you’re 50-50 chance at winning the game by the way they were The Underdogs so you don’t want to go to overtime anyway because you’re not a 50-50 chance to win you’re probably closer at best to 6040 but anyway we can have that conversation if anybody even
Needs and that’s the depressing part because I think at this point everybody’s already figured out you’re supposed to go for two late when you go when you’re down 14 you score a touchdown you’re down eight like you are supposed to go for two like it’s maybe like a handful of announcers because
They only watch one game a week and they golf the rest of the week presumably because they’re not paying attention to anything that else is happening in the rest of the league and then like just people who are like I don’t know 60 years or older and like
Don’t want to understand math so all all that is to say there’s no point in starting jacobe brassett it’s the same thing as Ryan tanah Hill right like why what’s you know and Sam how’s not injured you just play Sam how the rest of the season he gets three more games
Of experience and like okay and I think that’s what they’ve announced that they’re going to do MH so now it’s do I want Sam Howell and everything else that’s going on with the commanders yep on the road and they’re like oh I’m getting three points it’s like yeah cool but
This defense is awful um there was I should really have it up to cite it but there was a gentleman who graded all the quarterbacks in the league and the commanders literally had two of like the three worst Corners in the league so I’m not going to you know how do we judge
Zack Wilson are we going to judge him by last week that you know that situation against the Dolphins and and apply that to this situation or are we going to apply the week before against the Texans where as much as the Texans have a you know three four game better record than
The commanders Texans are on awfully similar team to the commanders shaky defense you know obviously a quarterback who throws you know no running game so it’s all throwing from the quarterback in the case of the Texans a dome team but like Sam Howell at home especially
In any time of rain scenario has been just awful think Buffalo game think that Dolphins game that they themselves played two weeks ago right like it’s like penalizing the Jets for getting blown out by the Dolphins when the when the commanders literally did it three weeks ago and so it’s like okay which
Scenario do I want do I want Zack Wilson against the maybe the worst defense in the entire league only giving three when the best unit by far on the field who has shown that they might not be able to take take advantage of bad of excuse me of good
Offenses but they certainly can take advantage of bad quarterbacks especially in bad scenarios like there’s a reason this is three and that like the world isn’t all just lining up and and taking the commanders here just because we’re getting three points against the Jets like the Jets can win this game by more
Than three points in fact they probably will and you know what I mean and that’s the thing that infuriates everybody about the Jets and about Zach Wilson and about the fact that they didn’t have Aaron Rogers or any sort of competent you know um consistent quarterback this season is because outside of the
Quarterback play every you know two out of every three games this is a really good team or sort of like has the structure of a really good team so yeah I think you know it’s uncomfortable but like there’s kind of a reason why some of these spreads are the way that they
Are when you think okay two bad teams are going to take the points it’s like well it’s actually one bad unit for the Jets and two bad units for the commanders who I thought were going to be able to move the ball against the Rams last week and didn’t until jacobe
Brassette came in and is that because the Rams had such a big lead that they were playing something of a prevent defense and they weren’t super locked in and motivational stuff ETA Etc right hoping for sloppy weather give me the Jets here minus three points I got you I got you pick
Has been changed Jets minus three we keep going here to the crappy Panthers at home hosting the Packers Packers fivepoint favorites on the road uh the Panthers got their win last week you know every week every win for them is going to be a celebration the Packers
Need a bounceback after they got crushed last week what better chance to have a bounceback than facing the Panthers give me the Packers minus five and I’m not gonna like watch this game at all totally fair so yeah we got out of Dodge with a victory with Carolina last week
And like that was sweet and because that was a contest play for me guess who watched every single play of Falcons Panthers last week I did and we always talk about how we have to be honest with ourselves about winning and losing bets and like whether we would want to have
This experience again and to be honest with you I would not like to have this experience again the Falcons were able to move the ball when they actually ran sort of interesting plays right some misdirection type stuff some you know throwback type stuff etc etc we already
Know what the Falcons issue is they literally don’t use their good players bejon Robinson doesn’t get used all of Tyler Alger is getting 20 carries like I get in a way the scenario because when bejan did get used I think he fumbled um you know and maybe he’s just not a rain
Guy I don’t know whatever doesn’t matter the point is is nothing about that game made me go yep Panthers the rest of the way let’s start hitting them as Underdog as many times as we possibly can I think the Packers you know you mentioned sort of the concept of a bounceback situation
Here again another week goes by maybe they get a little bit healthier we talked about all the health issues that they potentially would have against Tampa Bay and sure enough right a lot of those guys didn’t play Aaron Jones ended up playing which like imag imine Aaron Jones actually playing in a football
Game I think the scenario where the Packers who do all of that sort of misdirection they have plays right they have interesting plays instead of like hey let’s just runoff tackle for the 37th time I think they’re going to be able to move the ball just enough against the against the Panthers defense
This isn’t a dome team going on the road in in in crappy weather the way the Falcons were so this isn’t the S same situation as last week we are getting I think still a little bit of a discount here on the Packers because I think people looked at the Panthers were like
Competitive defense etc etc like can keep this game close like you know Bryce young did stuff on that last drive and like what he did honestly was like he just threw the ball to space where you know you spend three quarters trying to like hit guys in stride and do all this
Stuff that in the rain like just isn’t going to work but what you can do in the rain is hit is throw the ball into space and have your guy cut before the cornerback cuts and he can run underneath kind of these lollipop passes you know I don’t know listen it’s a
Weather we’re not going to predict the weather weather here I you know I don’t think the Packers are going to be affected by weather the same way that the that you know the Falcons were last week and if there is no weather in Carolina and it’s fine I think the
Packers can go and get enough you know go up and down get enough points on this Panthers team that they’re not going to be able to compete and keep up in the same way that they had much through the rest of the season this line opened at
Four and I couldn’t have bet this thing hard enough you know off the Hop uh now up to five there you can see some buyback and it’s like you know a lot of the times when I think something is really obvious I’m kind of looking for resistance like somebody tell me you
Like the Panthers like because you know obviously when it’s kind of too good to be true it’s it often is somebody tell me you like the Panthers here so that I can feel better about this and and seeing some money come in a little bit
Here on the Panthers like I am fine with that I think the Packers roll Carolina in this game and get back on track win their last three games and make the playoffs yeah would be a very good start for the Packers run to the playoffs for sure
As we continue on with the cards who are in Chicago to take on the bears bears at home is four and a half Point favorites I cannot lay four and a half points with the Bears can’t do it won’t do it I’m just not liking that at all so give me
The Arizona Cardinals here who were able to move the ball around against the Niners for a little bit you know and then the Niners are just better so plus four and a half cool I’ll take those points with the Cardinals yeah and the Cardinal have like a
Reliable you know sort of move the ball op couple of options right with James Connor and TR McBride I think T McBride is like top five tight end in in the NFL especially with like the uh the fantasy death of of Travis Kel Kelce um the weather you know you go okay
Chicago like Arizona team going to Chicago not ideal the weather actually looks pretty good in Chicago speaking of trying to predict the weather right it’s like it doesn’t seem to be it’s not going to be snowing it’s be this that or whatever we’ll see that could obviously
Change in the next 5 days that would be my only sort of hesitancy with regards to the Cardinals because honestly I think these teams pretty damn similar right like isn’t Justin fields and Kyler Murray just kind of the same thing at this point and the difference being
Obviously the Bears have quite a bit you know a lot better defense than the Cardinals have but listen the Cardinals you know keep taking fire here from teams like the Rams and and the 49ers especially at home when like the Rams and 49ers are going to always success in
Arizona like it’s not like Arizona has really any kind of home field advantage whatsoever so you know I think this is sets up a lot like the Steelers game from a couple of weeks ago like that was terrible weather they literally stopped the game two different times because you
Know there’s like lightning and obviously there was storming and rain and all that kind of stuff right so like the Cardinals just did this against Pittsburgh and they did it fine they dominated they ran the ball they you know were able to have you know have just enough of a passing
Game I think you know I think all this is to say right these teams aren’t that different and one team’s favored by four and a half points yeah right if this was game was in Arizona and Arizona was a minus four and a half Point favorite
Guess what we be doing be taking Chicago right so it’s like yeah I’m GNA take Arizona here gonna grin and bear it and I think there’s enough that they can do to keep this game close against a Bears team that like yeah playing a lot of close games right like that’s kind of
What they do definitely definitely um speaking of close games the Patriots almost kind of sort of kept it interesting for a bit against the Chiefs last week um showed Signs of Life we’ll say meanwhile the Broncos sort of fell apart last week against the Detroit Lions now the Broncos are hosting said
Patriots in Denver and favored by seven points this is a tough one and I don’t know what the Pats are doing in terms of like longterm is bellich there are they trying to tank are they trying to make sure like tanking is a weird concept to
Try to place on an NFL team as we’ve discussed time and time again but I feel like in this instance I think the Pats can keep this game close I don’t know if they win this game I feel like the Broncos will do the job and win but you
Know give me the Patriots to kind of keep it close here at seven yeah I mean certainly at seven you’re getting a little frisky with your point spread here um there’s some seven let’s see what it is 7 minus 118 so at minus 118 like more than than you know a standard minus
110 bet to get a key number like seven very reasonable sort of play here um Lions Open five and a half and has ticked up which honestly is a little bit you know it’s not surprising but it is surprising I’ll put it this way like I
Have the number at seven based on you know previous point spreads right um you know Denver gets blown off the planet on Saturday night and so you go okay we should probably knock that down a little bit and like you mentioned New England keeps that game sort of interesting
Competitive at least from a point spread perspective but it was interesting that that Kansas City wins that game by 10 that line toggled between sort of seven and a half and nine and a half and I think like closed at 10 right at the
Very end right so like no one came in on Kansas City at minus 10 right you don’t wait all week and be like yeah now I’m into it at minus 10 right like so everybody B bet on Kansas City won that game you might have gotten a push with
New England if you had that plus 10 at the very last second thing is like they kept that game close because of two interceptions of Patrick M homes and both of those interceptions were pretty much flukes right they were like good bounce type scenarios right and like bayy zapp’s
Going to do the thing like Hunter Henry is just a I guess a really good bet for an anytime touchdown every single game we had him against you know in h in the Pittsburgh game but he gets another one last week against Kansas City there
Might be some snow I think in the you know speaking of trying to predict the weather there might be some snow in the forecast here who knows what that means right does it mean it actually stays does it have any effect on the game whatsoever etc etc yeah um yeah I so I
Bet it at minus five and a half when that opened because again my projection had it at seven now that we’re at seven you have to have the conversation about like are the Broncos the type of team that you can rely to win by two scores and they have like they did against
Cleveland a couple of weeks ago but is it something that you think is going to happen sort of you know 55% of the time or more and even me who’s like I think Denver wins the rest of their games I think they make the playoffs I think
Shawn pton is still eligible for a coach of the year you know assuming that sort of happens so I’m still high on the Broncos going forward but like all of that highness on the Broncos all of that sort of you know interest in the Broncos like none of that had anything to do
With the idea of covering a big number you know and so that’s a thing that you have to remember when you’re thinking like okay am I going to just bet the Broncos every game you know for the rest of the season it’s like no we’ve hit the
Point here with the Broncos you know they got they got a game against the Chargers coming up I think Vegas to end the season on the road right and they’re gonna be favored in all those games the Vegas one might be a little bit dicey because they are on the road it’s like
Yeah do I want to just keep laying points with the Broncos like over and over and over again here like I kind of don’t I just kind of want them to win the game and sort of get into the playoffs cash you know playoff you know
Make to make playoff bets and and and have Payton maybe be sort of considered a coach of the year candidate with the turnaround that they’ve had Midway through the season so yeah it’s I’m not I’m certainly not going to talk you out of the Patriots plus seven here um
Especially assuming if that gets you know sort of a widely available and especially if that gets to like minus 110 but even at minus 1118 which is available right now that’s still you know a viable play on a key number for me no I got you I got you interesting
Game for sure which leads us perfectly into Christmas Day we got three Christmas Day games here as we first off we start with the Raiders at the Chiefs uh we were just talking about the Chiefs right and their win by 10 points and I think last week on the Pod the
Discussion was at nine and a half I you know I’m reluctant ly taking the Chiefs at 10 I’d have to start thinking about taking the uh Patriots and now we’re looking at a 10-point spread against the Raiders so now you’re ranking how good do I think the Raiders are versus the
Patriots and obviously the Chiefs going from road to home all that fun stuff but I’m gonna keep it real and do what I normally do here and lay the 10 points with the Chiefs um in part though because the Raiders the interesting part too for the Raiders is they’re going
From a Thursday night game to a Monday night game which is I mean normally I want to say a lot of time the rest but I feel like you know Max Crosby and Company might have had some fun this week you know if there’s a week you’re gonna have a little fun it’s
After you put up 63 points and you know you get to sit up on stage with the cigars afterwards I don’t know this will be an interesting game Christmas Day who knows how either team reacts to any of that stuff I don’t really know but I’m
Laying the 10 points with the Chiefs and I’ll take a push at 10 knowing knowing that you know that’s a a lot of points to be laying with the Chiefs team that don’t really deserve to be laying 10 points against anyone well yeah I actually think the number is fair here
And that’s with the downgrade of the Chiefs that we saw going into last week because that was the thing right the Chiefs got downgraded to the point where a 10-point win wasn’t just uh a push right it was a cover for anybody who sort of noticed that the Chiefs had been
Downgraded and that’s that’s why we talk about ratings right because it’s easy to just say okay the chief should be you know heav favored against the Patriots last week and knowing the difference between seven and a half and 10 and what that means in the marketplace right and
So seeing that that that was seven and a half at one point and knowing like okay how do I apply this to you know the math and you go oh man like that means a pretty significant you know as low as on essentially as low as the Chiefs have
Been rated all all season maybe for a couple of years you go well why would that be well I don’t know the whole Chiefs Bills game you know nonsense right and so that’s the thing that’s the thing that you hear every all week and people go like oh I don’t really want to
Bet the Chiefs anymore because like this that or whatever and it’s like that’s why the number seven and a half and by the time the weekend rolls around the people who go oh honestly this number probably should be 10 all bet the seven and a half the eight and a half the nine
And a half and we get to 10 and then that ends up being the difference between winning and losing like that’s why we do all this stuff all right so if we take that number that Kansas City number last week um going against the uh
The p Patriots and we say okay like 10 was a fair number this number should be more than 10 they’re at home against the Raiders not that much better of a team you know if they are than the than the Patriots and so you know this isn’t a
Situation where like oh man like you can’t pit the Chiefs in fact the same place that you you know we’re giving you the seven points here at minus 118 with the um with the Patriots over the Broncos has a flat minus 110 minus n and
A half on the Chiefs right so that’s the play that I would make right right I would take the Chiefs minus n and a half because as we’ve seen from the Chiefs over the years like these are the half points that matter the points that go from a seven-point win to a two-
Possession game late where they’re willing to sort of run the clock down you know take you know by the way speaking of running the clock down Isaiah Pacho you know looks to go right that’s a guy who at the end of the game is going to be able to close that game
Out and you know then they’re happy to kick the field goal and win that game by exactly 10 points so Kansas City minus n and a half is a bet that I’ve already made uh you know we saw you know Casey spotted Vegas what 14 points in Vegas
Like three weeks ago and then just like turned it on in the second half right if there’s one team that Kansas City is sort of comfortable with you know the idea of like flipping the switch and turning it on it’s probably you know Vegas and you know unlike most of the
Time in the last couple you know two three weeks of the season the Chiefs have a lot to play for here right like this this whole AFC seating scenario situation with the Ravens literally playing later that night potentially you know as underdogs opening the door for
The idea that the Chiefs could run the table and get the one seed after all of this hand ringing and head shaking etc etc we still might be at a situation where Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have to go on the road in the playoffs like Kansas City’s should be pretty locked in for
This game so I you know again I’ll like I did last week I’ll lay the big number with the Chiefs here um especially you know that we can get it under the double digits here at minus N9 and a half yeah I like it I like it a lot uh we move on
To the second game on Christmas Day and speaking of laying big points Eagles are 12-point favorites at home to the Giants uh normally I start again as normal as mentioned earlier pardon me normally start with taking the points and I’m not doing that here because I feel like the
Eagles who after going through the gauntlet that they’ve just been on finally get like you know desperate need of a team like the Giants that you know they might be able to take advantage of the Tommy DeVito sort of hype train slow down for a week after he railed I think
I was trying to be polite tracks I was trying to like be nice my guy’s feelings anytime you’re getting sacked and knocked out and people are taking your celebration and mocking you that’s a tough border like they weren’t even up like 20 points it was like yeah this is
Going to be easy work today like that that was and we’re talking about the Saints we’re not talking about you know a juggernaut here so either way Eagles back home game they need to win obviously as they try to keep Pace here and and hope that they can still win
Their division they need this game whereas the Giants I mean yeah I don’t know the Tommy DeVito thing was a nice story but you know so long farewell Eagles minus 12 let’s go yeah and it’s funny right because it’s like how do I how do I bet on the
Eagles after I mean all this stuff right but I think you know the Jaylen herdz calling out the team in general as sort of not really being that into it is is probably a good thing um from a health perspective right like there’s nothing really to say that the Eagles can’t
Absolutely overwhelm the Giants offensive line excuse me um you know and what’s Tommy DeVito gonna do beat this beat the Eagles secondary right the issues with the Eagles has been like they’ve played really good quarterbacks up until last week right and so it’s like it all kind of
Snowballs and yeah listen I don’t know what happened necessarily last week it certainly wasn’t that Drew lock was throwing the ball deep end you know ended up having to do so and took advantage of the sketchy Eagles secondary like I don’t know yeah yeah I mean honestly he could
Have been anybody you know and and we would sort of blame that guy because that’s the eagles’s issue right now sorry I should have I should have like given more preamble to that there’s beef between Debo and Bradbury after Debo last year called about said he’s trash and then there highlight videos of
Someone showing every single reception given up on that 92 yard drive to win the game Bradbury was the DB and okay okay with the Debo clip on the back end calling him trash sorry I should have given more of a preamble right and it’s and it’s circling I’m being cheek
Obviously no but it’s and with slay out last week right it’s circling Bradberry and being like okay like that’s the guy that we want anybody matched up on right and whether that’s DK or whether that’s that’s jsn that’s the guy that they wanted to match up with who on the
Giants is going to is going to take advantage of that right it’s not Tommy Deo like it’s just he’s throwing the ball to anybody and there’s nobody on the team that like plexo is he available is not he’s in the club with the jogging pants um so it’s like okay well how does
How do the Giants score in this game because it’s like Tommy DeVito loves to take a sack loves it nobody likes more likes it more so it’s going to be a lot of third and Longs here and so I don’t know that the Giants score honestly in
This game because like the running game hasn’t been there with saquin outside of a couple of big bursts and okay he has a couple of big runs in this game then you flip you know you flip it and you’re like okay I think the Eagles probably score a fair amount because that hasn’t
Really been the issue I mean they could have should have you know would have scored more points against the Seahawks I think you know that that they wish they had they certainly wish they had and the Cowboys they fumbled the ball a couple of times in scenarios where they
Were Pro you know going down to score but they could score you know with the bills and you know they ended up scoring a decent amount of points and a number of points against the 49ers that I think would end up covering this game certainly so yeah it’s uncomfortable and
It was uncomfortable when the line was 10 10 and a half and now that it’s 12 you go okay like somebody was interested in betting the Eagles to win this game by a big margin and I kind of can’t really argue with that because even if the Eagles get kind
Of a bump back up to where um their rating was before all this stuff all this this schedule issue happened we’ve talked about it right like you they you played nobody last year right and then you play four straight games against like pretty good teams and then a fifth
Game against you know in a tough spot like Seahawks on the road would have qualified as like the toughest game that the Eagles played all last season going right which they lost definitely so it’s like all of a sudden their like fifth hardest game in five games is like the
Second hardest game that they had all last season like yeah you are G to struggle so is it some like you know and you’re G to say things like you know we don’t want it enough and all that kind of stuff because you don’t want to admit
That maybe you’re not as good as you thought you were because you had this really nice sort of setup all the way to the Super Bowl and played a really good game against Kansas City right like you’re going to say like oh you know we need to try harder it’s like or you’re
Just maybe not as good as as you think now you might you’re gonna have a try hard situation everybody’s going to be locked in you are still a pretty good team and you’re facing a matchup that is so much easier than anything that you’ve seen in like six weeks yeah yeah I think
The Eagles probably blow them out you know at home obviously and all that all that stuff like this isn’t going to be a home game against the Packers a home game against the Patriots for you know for for Tommy DeVito this going to this going to the link man like they’re in
Big Time trouble yeah you know again this point at this point in the season like laying points especially big numbers like this you just have to be a little bit more interested in doing it than you would be at the start of the season because at the start of the
Season it’s like we don’t know we don’t know end of the season like we know and we also can question whether a team like the Giants is super locked in and going on the road and getting a big win like I don’t think that’s going to happen
Eagles big also if there’s anyone who’s going to know how to stop Tommy DeVito it’s gonna be Nick serani and big Dom oh yeah yeah big Tom yeah he might get some snaps by the end of this game like you know Lane Johnson’s hobbling around like
He was in that Seahawks game screw big Dom shout out to Jason Kelsey by the way for moving that ball up half a yard God that was hilarious like oh no wonder they get these these these brotherly butt pushes or whatever they’re called something like that move the ball up a
Half a yard every time I’m sure he doesn’t do it every time but still doesn’t hurt doesn’t hurt uh we close with a Christmas Day Banger the Ravens at the ners ners at home favored by five and a half points you know I’m going to
Be on the ners at minus five and a half but the five and a half point line here you know it’s interesting because the Ravens are looking pretty good you know Lamar’s doing his Lamar stuff where it’s kind of in between of what we need to
Settle Lamar down and we got him weapons we got this we got that but really when Lamar’s out there just freestyling that’s Lamar here’s my thing the Niners are healthy the Niners are ready the Niners are firing on all cylinders and that ners defense and their linebackers especially Fred
Warner I’m pretty sure they’re going to be sitting there ready for all whatever Lamar’s going to do and the reality of Lamar no matter what is he still plays is very loose in high leverage situations against very good defenses and he might be turnover prone we’ve
Seen it before and if you’re going to be turnover prone against a team might be a team like the Niners that has you know a pass rush great linebacking core it’s very interesting it’s G to be a big game lots are calling it a Super Bowl preview
All that fun stuff I’m on the ners minus five and a half but I will say that’s a lot of points and I understand why people would be taking the Ravens I get it right but I need to see someone take down the ners before I’m like I’m
Worried about laying less than a touchdown yeah and that’s the thing right I I bet the Ravens plus six uh found kind of a rogue number honestly just because I’m like it’s not getting higher than six you know I mean it’s not gonna be six and a half so like let’s
Get the six now maybe you know just close as five something along those lines maybe I come back on the 49ers I don’t really know again I’m going to need to dig in and sort of figure out how honestly any anybody beats the 49ers at this point I’ve said all season like
They’ve been raid as a historically great team um that hasn’t necessarily translate into covers every single time because of the number that that that numbers are too high the numbers are craziness right and the last like three weeks I’ve been in-game betting the ners just after they’re down
Three nothing or down 107 in the first quarter and just like oh Niners at seven and a half that sounds a lot better than 12 and a half I was I was gonna tweet at you when they went like they went down to the to the Cardinals I think yeah
Yeah yeah I was going to do I was going to hit you with that gift of the guy looking from behind the tree right because like that’s hold on in real time what was happening at that moment was from like you know as I oh I I thought
Our conversation prior wad was actually on the Pod so I was about to say as I was saying I was at a family gathering on Sunday as I said earlier it’s like oh that wasn’t on the pot but either way I was at a family gathering food was being
Served and at the moment it was like hey uh TV’s on niners game’s on everyone’s watching football and it’s like hey do you want this you want that I’m like hold on one second the Niners just went down by a field goal I’m like on my phone like trying so quickly and
Everyone’s kind of looking and there was my one cousin in the corner that knew exactly what was going down and he’s just laughing it was too funny so yes to your point yeah you did it you you were hitting it would been a great meme yeah
I mean I gu part of me just hopes that this game can be close because it’s just like if this game isn’t close like what game is going to be with this with this 49ers team right I’ve been eyeballing like the AFC NFC like who to win the
Super Bowl um markets and I’m just like looking at I’m like in what way is NFC even at like a minus one 30 something along those lines and it was pretty CL it was pretty much pick them for like the longest time this season you know in
What way is that not a good bet because like what’s the scenario where it’s 49ers against whomever in the Super Bowl and we’re not looking at a field goal favorite type situation it’s not like by the way it’s not like the 49ers have much in the way of home field advantage
Right we’ll give them a point and a half just to be kind of nice right you know they have a home field advantage because they’re good not because they have a home field Advantage right yeah so like if if on a neutral Baltimore and San Francisco is minus
Four and Baltimore right now is kind of the best the AFC has to offer I I mean I I think B Buffalo at this point might be better than Baltimore I mean I think that’s a debate those two teams right now are you know and then Kansas City
Obviously kind of a close second right behind as far as like the you know we’re talking about who not who’s going to win right but what the point spread would be if we’re looking at like a a Ravens 49ers Super Bowl or a bills 49er Super
Bowl how is it not minus four how is it not minus three and a half yeah right so like if you can get an NFC at like under a field goal or under minus 150 what’s the worst that’s GNA happen right 49ers lose maybe I guess to like
Philadelphia or Dallas and by the way like a good Philadelphia when they’re cooking and Dallas when they’re cooking are rated right around the same point as the bills and the Ravens so you you know what I mean like you wouldn’t be losing that much yeah yeah exactly and and
Again all that is implying that the 49ers like ever lose another game and honestly like I don’t know if that’s I don’t know if that’s going to be a thing yeah n hear that I’m knocking on wood right now I don’t know yeah NFC minus 130 like why wouldn’t you yeah super
Interesting stuff here great week of football ahead as there’s football on Thursday and Saturday and Sunday and Monday just multiple games all around enjoy the week of football enjoy for sure but in between because there’s lots going on this week and there might be a lot of updates needed while you’re
Getting your last second Christmas shopping and and you’re on the phone but where can the people find you my dude yeah at Emeral Authentics where everything I write gets retweeted out or at least I try to this time of year gets super busy uh we have college bowl
Season going on right now uh the my projections are8 and0 so far in bowl season does that mean I have actually won eight eight bets have not because I’m an idiot and I’m only five- two so far this this poll season because I went against those projections because you
Get information from you know in bowl games and all of that kind of stuff um worth also mentioning an article that I wrote last week about uh about the playoffs I think we talked about a little bit briefly last week but the Wild Card round tried to predict the the
Point spreads for all the playoffs then the score bet put up look ahead lines for those playoff and those are available to bet so you can go in and and see sort of what I think the play playoff matchups uh might entail and you can actually bet those which the score
Bet and ESPN bet are the only places that have those up so that’s kind of fun and then other than that man like we’re just trying to get in where we can get in and while also taking enough time off um to actually see one or two um human
Beings over the course of what is you know still despite the fact that it’s the holiday is a very busy time of the year for your boy so uh yeah always something going on I’m shaking my head as I think of the three Raptors games between now and Christmas just like can
Can I just be sitting on my couch watching the Niners and Ravens game on Christmas night that’s I just want to fast forward to that point is that too much to ask that would be nice for sure uh make sure you follow Matt at mrr authentic and all the stuff at the score
For sure and you can follow me on the app formerly known as Twitter shell Alexander and on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander wherever you happen to be watching and taking in this pod please you know do us a favor support the Pod send us a like send us your comments and
Questions let me know how much of an idiot I am for not listening to Matt as much as I should all that fun stuff cuz it’s what we do here we have some fun as I always say I used to pray for times like this to Ry like this this is the
Clutch pick sports betting podcast as always unpolished and Unapologetic till next time see you
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