Whether you consider it the fifth major or not, we can all agree that the Players Championship is, bar none, the most fun event on the PGA Tour every year. It’s always a delight to return to TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye design that demands accuracy, positional golf, a complete game, and brings in the Florida-swing volatility that we know and love as well. And I’m not expecting anything different from the 2026 tournament.
TPC Sawgrass’s Stadium Course was opened in 1980 and has hosted the Players Championship since 1982. Pete Dye and Alice Dye designed the tract, which measures out at 7,352 yards on the scorecard for the par-72 layout. The iconic island green on the 17th hole highlights the water trouble that awaits around numerous turns throughout the venue, but it’s also a challenging course with Dye’s signature deceptive eyelines and some harsh green complexes to manage as well.
The Players Championship always tests, well, the players—even the very best in the world. That’s why we see roller-coaster results from even top players who have enjoyed success at TPC Sawgrass in the past. That also makes modeling this event tough, but nonetheless, still quite fun. As for that, let’s dive into the numbers and try to get some big winners this week.
Key Stats for TPC SawgrassStrokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds
At a positional golf course, you always need to be able to both take advantage of good spots off the tee, but also make something happen when that’s not the case. So, naturally, we’re giving strokes-gained approach its weekly love as a key factor in the model.
Austin Smotherman (+1.177)Si Woo Kim (1.120)Shane Lowry (1.115)Collin Morikawa (0.982)Zecheng Dou (0.910)Strokes-gained around the green over last 24 rounds
While the ever-important approach play matters, finding ways to save a score when you miss the green is just as important. So, much to my chagrin, we have to weight around-the-green play pretty heavily for the second straight week.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+0.664)Jason Day (0.617)Hideki Matsuyama (0.607)Justin Thomas (0.552)Stephan Jaeger (0.551)Fairways Gained over the last 24 rounds
There’s more than just finding the fairway at TPC Sawgrass as a positional golf course. Having said that, being in the short grass surely doesn’t hurt the cause, and we’re looking at fairways gained in relation to the field.
Joel Dahmen (+2.222)Andrew Putnam (1.981)Si Woo Kim (1.609)Lucas Glover (1.344)Matt Fitzpatrick (1.307)Birdie-or-Better Gained Percentage
Scores can always vary at the Players, but you definitely need to rack up some birdies in relation to the field in order to win. So we have to take a look at the players who have been successful relative to the field in terms of circles on the scorecard.
Scottie Scheffler (1.541)Andrew Putnam (1.248)Rory McIlroy (1.243)Jacob Bridgeman (1.233)Rick Castillo (1.224)The Players Championship model rankings this week
I honestly ended up baking more into the model this week than expected, but it’s to get a complete picture of the unique test that TPC Sawgrass provides. We start with strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%) followed not far behind by strokes-gained around the Green in the last 24 (15%). We then get a solid blend of fairways gained, birdie-or-better gained percentage, and strokes-gained TPC Sawgrass over the last 24 rounds (10% each). We then sprinkle in a lot more with strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (8%) and strokes-gained par-5s (7%) before rounding out with bogey avoidance, good drive percentage, strokes-gained short courses (5% each) and then some Pete Dye comp courses with strokes-gained TPC River Highlands (3%) and Harbour Town (2%). Here’s how the Top 10 of the model shakes out after we plug in those numbers.
Rory McIlroyTommy FleetwoodScottie SchefflerMatt FitzpatrickSi Woo KimChristiaan BezuidenhoutHideki MatsuyamaCollin MorikawaRussell HenleyAlex Noren2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational picksLudvig Åberg +2700 (DraftKings)
While Ludvig Åberg doesn’t crack the top 10 of the model (he’s 22nd, for what it’s worth), this is a trending play that the last 24 round numbers don’t fully appreciate. And it seems like the strapping young Swede is about to peak at a place where he quietly has a solo eighth finish to his credit here back in 2024.
As he’s clearly started to get healthier, Ludvig has been on a steady trend upward since missing the cut at Farmers. He’s improved his strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained approach in each of his last three starts, including gaining 9.786 strokes tee-to-green as he finished T3 at the API. When his ball-striking is in form and on a surface in Bermuda where he’s been a positive putter, his scoring ability makes him exceptionally dangerous.
This is definitely trying to be ahead of a trend while I still think the number is quite good, and I’m going to bet on Åberg getting back to his winning ways in a big-time event as he can capture his first Players victory.
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000 (DraftKings)
If you’re looking for the right balance, then you should probably look no further than Matt Fitzpatrick right now. The results—especially after a wildly bad tee-to-green week at the API—haven’t fully mirrored how well he’s playing, but it does feel as if he’s still in the right form to make a splash at the Players.
As with anyone, I’m not worried about MCs at the Players, but rather what the highs have looked like. In his last five starts at TPC Sawgrass, Fitzpatrick has a solo fifth and a T9 finish working his way. When you then consider that he’s 10th in strokes-gained approach and fifth in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda, not to mention fifth in fairways gained as well, then you start to see how things could absolutely line up for him to make a run this week.
More importantly, after what happened at Bay Hill last week, I suspect a lot of the Fitzpatrick backers will be off him. That looks like the outlier so far this season, and I’m willing to try and swoop in with a depressed price and cash with Fitzy at the Players.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000 (FanDuel)
We love a longshot and there is reason to believe that Bezuidenhout could fit the bill this week. He’s coming off a T8 finish in Puerto Rico last week, and has four top-40 finishes in five starts this season. That’s not overly impressive, but the profile shows a lot to like about how he’s been finding success in relation to what TPC Sawgrass asks of players.
Bezuidenhout is 17th in strokes-gained approach, first in strokes-gained around the green, eighth in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda, top 20 in fairways gained, and top 30 in bogey avoidance as well over the last 24 rounds. The only worry with him is that he’s actually been sub-average in terms of birdie-or-better percentage, but the formula for him to find success this week specifically could be there.
The South African quietly finished T13 here in back-to-back years in 2023 and 2024, which goes to show how he can have success at the Players when his game is firing. It might not be all cylinders, but it certainly seems like most of it is firing right now, which makes a 100 to 1 shot worth it.
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